Latest / The Curve / Navigating the Market Dip.

Transcript

Navigating the Market Dip. · The Curve

• 0:01
  Welcome to the Curve Weekly, where we read the finance news so you don't have to.
• 0:05
  I'm Vic Harris.
• 0:05
  I'm a finance professional and have had a career out of making money for people.
• 0:09
  And I'm Sophie Hall-Wright.
• 0:10
  I'm an ex-producer.
• 0:12
  I've worked in radio, television, in the media industry,
• 0:15
  and I was just really sick and tired of not knowing how to make money or understand anything happening in the economy,
• 0:20
  so we started this podcast.
• 0:21
  We're starting off with a quick update on the war in Iran, where the oil price is at,
• 0:25
  what markets are doing, and what you should be doing yourself.
• 0:29
  Nothing.
• 0:30
  A 20-year-old American woman has made a claim against all the social media platforms.
• 0:36
  She's just won a case.
• 0:37
  She's won millions of dollars.
• 0:39
  We talk about what this means for social media and the tech industry in general.
• 0:43
  We also talk about private credit.
• 0:45
  It's a space within the investing world that's actually been quietly booming over the last few years.
• 0:50
  But recently, people are starting to get a bit nervous about it.
• 0:54
  We talk about why.
• 0:55
  And then, we really need your help.
• 0:56
  At the end of this episode, we need a creative brainstorm from our amazing listeners.
• 1:01
  So please stick around and give us your thoughts, feedback and great ideas.
• 1:04
  But first of all, we're back in the studio together.
• 1:12
  Back in London, Vic.
• 1:14
  Back in the studio.
• 1:15
  It feels quite good to be in the same space again.
• 1:18
  We were like, I think the amount of technical F-ups behind the scenes, podcasting remotely
• 1:24
  is such a pain in everyone's ass, isn't it?
• 1:26
  I don't know how the big people do it.
• 1:28
  No, neither do I.
• 1:29
  They must have some kind of weird technical minion that comes in and helps them
• 1:33
  because it is so hard.
• 1:34
  Our technical minion is Emily.
• 1:35
  I know, and Emily, thank God we're back in the same place.
• 1:40
  I would like to just start by saying thank you so much to India Leishman
• 1:43
  who filled in for me last week.
• 1:44
  She was amazing.
• 1:46
  She was great.
• 1:47
  And honestly, I loved all the comments of support when people listened.
• 1:50
  I'm like, she was great.
• 1:51
  This was amazing.
• 1:52
  It's so cool to see people step in.
• 1:54
  It's like we're not that special.
• 1:55
  anyone can talk you know what I mean like it's quite fun sorry we're so special don't listen
• 2:00
  to anyone else we're so special no but I mean like you know it's it's just fun to hear other
• 2:05
  people step in and she had some really cool insights yes I think that I was like wow okay
• 2:10
  she's really young she obviously researched me and made me realize I need to pick my game up
• 2:13
  I know I was like wow you've really taken this seriously but uh no I loved it yeah thanks Indy
• 2:17
  um but yeah I also just like thanks for letting me have a holiday yeah how was it it was so good
• 2:25
  yeah have you been to Vietnam no I just I saw this meme the other day and it was like um when you
• 2:30
  beg your parents to take you to get you a puppy when you're six and then now they're begging you
• 2:34
  for kids and you're just floating on a stream in Vietnam I was like oh my god that's me um yeah no
• 2:39
  it was amazing I went to this um place like up in the north called Ha Long Bay have you heard of it
• 2:44
  oh I've heard of it these massive greenstone islands there's like 7,000 of them like you just
• 2:49
  go around it in a boat and it honestly looks like you're in Jurassic Park or something it was
• 2:54
  incredible and we spent two days on this like boat cruise which at first I thought like how
• 2:59
  embarrassing we're 34 and going on a cruise like what is the clientele gonna be but it was so fun
• 3:06
  there was this like bath in our room so you could like be in a bath and read and just all these
• 3:10
  insane islands going past it was quite unreal no and like actually really great to be to do a
• 3:17
  holiday where you actually cannot work like the second part of the trip we were on motorbikes
• 3:21
  going around this loop in northern Vietnam.
• 3:24
  And it was purposefully planned so that I couldn't be on the back of my bike
• 3:28
  trying to send an email.
• 3:29
  But no, it was so much fun.
• 3:31
  I had the best time.
• 3:33
  Nice.
• 3:33
  I'm quite scared to check my bank account if I'm being totally honest with you.
• 3:37
  Our social media manager, Lucy, sends a weekly email being like,
• 3:41
  how's everyone going?
• 3:41
  Are you in the green or the red this week?
• 3:43
  And I'm like, can I avoid this week?
• 3:45
  I know.
• 3:45
  It comes around every week.
• 3:46
  I'm like.
• 3:47
  I had a total F out.
• 3:49
  Red, red, red.
• 3:50
  No, no.
• 3:51
  I got to the airport Vic and I um we checked in and they were like beep beep like we don't go you
• 3:58
  can't go through like we need to take your boarding pass in your part and I was like oh
• 4:01
  god sorry I'm like just here we go again like what have I done this time and and I was like no
• 4:07
  no no I'm feeling confident this is all fine and then they came back and they were like um you can
• 4:13
  go through now and I said oh thank god and I just thought it was because we had digital boarding
• 4:16
  passes and they gave us physical ones they're like no you need to go and see the check-in desk as
• 4:19
  soon as you get in I was like shit and then I had a small part of the back of my mind I was like
• 4:24
  maybe I'm getting an upgrade you know like customs the custom officer yes you're getting
• 4:32
  upgrades Sophie all right well I've never been upgraded so I thought like you know maybe it was
• 4:35
  a positive anyway so I went up to the desk like and she was like um do you have your visa for
• 4:41
  Vietnam and I was like no what and I I turned to my boyfriend I was like did you did you I was like
• 4:49
  have fun without me he was like no no we don't need visas I checked and he was like oh my god
• 4:54
  I only checked UK and not New Zealanders so I they were like the flight leaves and you know
• 4:59
  you're about to board so they were like just try and see if you can get a last minute one I was
• 5:03
  like this is not happening this is not happening and then they were like sometimes you can pay to
• 5:08
  get a fast track visa so sat down furiously looking there was like 15 minute visa application
• 5:14
  I was like this is totally a scam I bet you anything this is not gonna work anyway paid 350
• 5:19
  USD thinking this is this is probably going to some randoms inbox I'm never going to get an email
• 5:23
  from this anyway it worked got my visa the boarding had been delayed so I managed to like get on
• 5:30
  but I was just like this is surely this is for my emergency fund right like this is an
• 5:34
  this is a valid emergency no comment do you don't reckon no oh my god well where is that
• 5:42
  meant to come from your travel fund I'd spent that on my flight no I think yeah yeah come on
• 5:49
  give me a break I never spend my emergency fund oh my god she's not letting it pass that's
• 5:55
  devastating anyway point is I'm in the red so red so swimming in red no bless on my flight over
• 6:02
  as I was getting off and I went via Vancouver bless the air says she was like Vic oh oh my gosh
• 6:09
  I didn't know that you were on this flight.
• 6:10
  Oh, my gosh.
• 6:11
  Oh, stop.
• 6:11
  And she was like, damn it, I wish I'd known.
• 6:13
  And I was like, yeah, I wish I had too.
• 6:15
  I would have got an upgrade.
• 6:17
  No, but she was so sweet.
• 6:18
  She was like really gutted.
• 6:20
  And I was like, oh.
• 6:21
  Was this in New Zealand?
• 6:22
  Everyone's trying to get out behind you.
• 6:24
  And you're like, yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 6:25
  Okay, cool.
• 6:25
  Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 6:26
  Yeah, she was very sweet.
• 6:28
  So shout out to her.
• 6:29
  Shout out to New Zealand.
• 6:30
  Yeah.
• 6:30
  I had a moment on the flight back where I was sitting in my seat with my retainer in and my earplugs falling out.
• 6:36
  It was not my finest moment.
• 6:38
  and someone was walking past and she goes,
• 6:40
  I love the podcast, and then kept walking.
• 6:42
  Yeah.
• 6:43
  And I just, like, had this, like, retainer and I was like,
• 6:45
  hey, girl.
• 6:46
  Oh, my God, I'm so embarrassed that this is, like,
• 6:48
  how you're seeing me.
• 6:49
  I know.
• 6:50
  Also, our flight was delayed, like, three hours.
• 6:52
  I was like, imagine if I'd gone full angry mode and been like,
• 6:58
  that's ridiculous.
• 6:59
  You know.
• 7:00
  You kind of can't anymore.
• 7:01
  Do you remember when we were in, we had that office in Auckland
• 7:06
  in City Works Depot, we worked out of my sister's office
• 7:09
  and I refused to pay for parking.
• 7:11
  Oh my God.
• 7:12
  And I was like, it's private property.
• 7:13
  You can't charge.
• 7:15
  I was just making shit up anyway.
• 7:17
  Yeah, it's one of those things you have to be careful of now.
• 7:19
  I feel like.
• 7:20
  And then they like red-stickered my car in terms of not literally.
• 7:23
  Didn't they put like a clamp on the wheel?
• 7:24
  Yeah.
• 7:25
  Yeah, yeah, nice.
• 7:26
  I feel like that's the kind of thing that would happen to me, not you.
• 7:27
  Also, Vic, it's a business.
• 7:29
  Just pay.
• 7:30
  Like, why do you think you're special?
• 7:31
  Like, Auckland is the worst as well.
• 7:33
  that there's terrible parking and then like even in the city like I had so many meetings in the
• 7:37
  city and spent a fortune on parking like there was one it was $50 for a few hours and then I was
• 7:44
  half an hour over and I got stung another 70 so this one meeting cost me like $130 and I was just
• 7:52
  like oh kill me now I must say that's the best thing about London is the public transport like
• 7:58
  To be able to not have to deal with parking.
• 8:01
  Yes, line bikes drive me absolutely insane.
• 8:04
  However, not –
• 8:06
  It's quite a nice way to get around, you know, fresh air.
• 8:08
  I'm just like the app is constantly wigging out and it makes me so mad.
• 8:12
  I got my jacket caught in the wheel the other day on the way to work
• 8:15
  and I turned up and like, hi, guys, and I had dust, like black shit all over my hands.
• 8:20
  I washed them like 10 times and it wouldn't come off
• 8:22
  because my jacket just got sucked on in.
• 8:25
  And then people biking past being like, sucks when that happens.
• 8:28
  been there and I'm like can someone help me I just feel like any disaster it's where the
• 8:34
  line is happening to me speaking of not driving yes there is I think we're gonna we're gonna get
• 8:40
  to a point uh we know you want to say yeah the oil price like when I left New Zealand it was like
• 8:46
  we're down to I can't remember how many weeks but anyway there's like they're down to like a weekly
• 8:51
  countdown until we're having to start putting things in place to stop using cars and using
• 8:56
  petrol the uk is so reliant on oil i think i feel good about this the idea of rationing oil
• 9:04
  and not having people not using cars i'm like why have we not done this sooner to
• 9:08
  to slow down global warming but it's not just that right if you think about old people in
• 9:12
  their houses that can't use heating you know like that's the kind of shit that really is
• 9:18
  really sad if you had someone planning better in terms of its use of oil an elderly person in their
• 9:24
  home using heating is top priority but everyone being lazy and just having a car and driving with
• 9:30
  one person in it probably shouldn't be priority don't you think like do you think this actually
• 9:34
  could be planned to it actually you know in the same way i think it'll get to that point it'll
• 9:39
  get to that point where it's like okay you can't drive with just one person or you can't drive on
• 9:42
  one day so that's great yeah is that me being like ignorant i think it's more a bigger issue of like
• 9:48
  how in the world is the fact that a war in the middle east can impact the rest of the world
• 9:55
  why are we so reliant on oil but you know in the same way when covid happened and everyone stopped
• 9:59
  you know traveling and stopped this and that and we saw amazing impacts on climate change and then
• 10:05
  also all the things that came out of it was the idea of like people can be very like self-sufficient
• 10:10
  working from home and all these things that should have happened sooner didn't but because we were
• 10:14
  forced into it what came out of it was kind of positive in a way I know that this is not ideal
• 10:21
  but if we actually got to a place where we were every country was being really clever about
• 10:26
  rationing the amount of oil that was used and it wasn't the go-to and it wasn't just readily
• 10:30
  available all the time wouldn't that be good in theory yes in the short term if we're rationing
• 10:35
  our oil and not driving that means more people on public transport more people using line bikes
• 10:40
  there's just not the infrastructure to take all those people in the short term but yes and I
• 10:44
  I said this on the last, was it last week's with Indy?
• 10:46
  I was like, I think the positive outcome of all of this is we need to diversify.
• 10:51
  We need to be more focused on renewable energy.
• 10:53
  You know, like all that kind of stuff I think will be positive.
• 10:56
  But that's not, you can't do that overnight.
• 10:58
  But I also feel like you've said that for years where you're like, you know,
• 11:03
  all these impacts will mean that there's more demand on solar energy
• 11:06
  and there's more demands on natural blah, blah, blah.
• 11:08
  But then it never really happened.
• 11:10
  You know, it sort of did, but I feel like it always comes to a head
• 11:14
  was some massive issue that the whole world has to stop
• 11:17
  for it to actually force change to happen faster.
• 11:20
  So in a way.
• 11:22
  But if you think of COVID, right, your example with COVID,
• 11:24
  yes, it was great, everyone can work from home.
• 11:26
  Yes, that was good.
• 11:27
  But that led to massive inflation.
• 11:29
  We had, you know, because the system wasn't set up for it,
• 11:32
  wasn't set up for this global movement of everyone needing a laptop,
• 11:36
  for example, or everyone, you know, nobody using cars
• 11:39
  so we can shut down, you know, certain factories.
• 11:43
  you know all of that stuff is just it wasn't prepared for it so yes this could be the thing
• 11:48
  that tips tips it over the edge in terms of like okay we need to do more renewable energy and
• 11:53
  you know all of that but it could go the other way and realize okay we actually need to be
• 11:57
  drilling for oil in more countries in the middle east because we can't rely on the middle east
• 12:01
  because it's so volatile and you know there could be another war that breaks out so we need to look
• 12:04
  at australia we need to look at the us we need to look at argentina venezuela no it's venezuela
• 12:09
  sorry not Argentina
• 12:10
  but one thing is
• 12:11
  and I know
• 12:12
  you're like
• 12:13
  inflation works
• 12:14
  is that what you're doing
• 12:15
  I just
• 12:16
  if this does lead
• 12:17
  to inflation
• 12:18
  the way we combat
• 12:19
  inflation
• 12:20
  is higher interest rates
• 12:21
  to slow down
• 12:23
  people spending money
• 12:23
  but like
• 12:24
  if we have high inflation
• 12:25
  this is
• 12:26
  case in point
• 12:27
  of why we need
• 12:28
  to be investing
• 12:29
  because your money
• 12:29
  is literally getting
• 12:30
  eaten away
• 12:31
  if it's in the bank
• 12:32
  so like
• 12:32
  if anything
• 12:33
  there should be a trigger
• 12:34
  of gosh
• 12:34
  I need to
• 12:35
  I need to invest my money
• 12:36
  it needs to be growing
• 12:37
  because the world's
• 12:38
  getting more expensive
• 12:39
  Everything's getting more expensive.
• 12:40
  I need to grow my money in order to stand still.
• 12:42
  What would you say to people who have taken their money out of a lot of investments because
• 12:47
  they feel quite concerned about what's happening in America?
• 12:52
  I've had quite a few people speak to me about the idea.
• 12:56
  And this is people actually with a decent amount of money.
• 12:58
  They've pulled so much of their money out of investments because they feel like they're
• 13:01
  too risky.
• 13:03
  How would you respond to that?
• 13:06
  I'd be like, well, when are you going to put it back in?
• 13:08
  what are you waiting for are you waiting for the market the stock market to fall
• 13:12
  10 20 are you waiting for the war to be over and then you know like there's just no strategy not
• 13:19
  even the best investors haven't timed the market well or done well out of trying to invest trying
• 13:26
  to time the market so why do you think that you can the market's already down markets all around
• 13:31
  the world already down five seven eight percent you should be investing yeah you know if you're
• 13:37
  investing a few yeah i guess people are nervous but there's always going to be something there's
• 13:41
  always going to be something around the corner that makes you nervous we've had covid we've had
• 13:45
  cost of living we've had tariffs i mean at this point it's comical isn't it totally like why
• 13:50
  stress yourself out being like trying to time the market but you know selling and buying just
• 13:55
  sit and forget because i guarantee you we're sitting we will be sitting here in a year's
• 14:00
  time with something else that's affecting the stock market and look if it falls 10 15 tomorrow
• 14:06
  Tomorrow, cool, go shopping.
• 14:09
  The US is down about 5%, probably changed by the time this podcast comes out.
• 14:12
  New Zealand's down 5%.
• 14:14
  Australia's down 7%.
• 14:16
  UK, which is the most reliant on energy from the Middle East, is down 8%.
• 14:21
  There's Asian stock markets around the world which are down way more than that.
• 14:26
  The more reliant you are on oil from the Middle East,
• 14:27
  the more your stock market is down essentially.
• 14:30
  And remember, stock markets are forward-looking.
• 14:31
  So as soon as there is a slight positive announcement of the war,
• 14:36
  being over or the straight of Hamas opening up and oil being back.
• 14:40
  By the time you invest, you've missed it.
• 14:43
  You just need to, like Trump is so, he's not going to let the stock market fall.
• 14:47
  He is so invested in it doing well.
• 14:50
  And it is kind of the flagship thing that presidents hold their hat on
• 14:54
  in their term in government is this is how the S&P 500 is done in my tenure.
• 15:00
  I didn't realise that.
• 15:01
  He is so egotistical.
• 15:03
  he will be and he's got wealth tied up yeah he's he's he's not gonna let us have a major
• 15:10
  major and look admittedly some of it is out of his control but there's kind of pluses of him
• 15:16
  being in power as well it's like investing alongside a founder right if he's invested
• 15:21
  in the stock market and he's got a lot of wealth tied into the S&P 500 doing well
• 15:26
  maybe we just invest alongside him yeah thank god there's some positives I think it's really
• 15:32
  interesting because when it's nearly been a year since the tariffs happened yeah and the market
• 15:38
  stood its first massive holy shit and it dropped and it was like this massive moment at the time
• 15:45
  when we were talking about that I think I had this perspective of Trump has no idea what he's doing
• 15:49
  what an idiot and I mean no idea what he's doing in regards to kind of everything but if there's
• 15:57
  one thing that he has kind of proven in the last year I'm not saying I agree with any of his
• 16:04
  decisions or the way that he thinks about the world but like if you look at the stock market
• 16:08
  oh totally I mean it's not exactly done badly I hate to say that but it's it I guess the way to
• 16:14
  think about it is if if his main incentive is money and America's money yeah you probably
• 16:22
  assume that if he sees things totally falling off a cliff he's going to do something to try
• 16:26
  and rectify it, which is such a weird thing to say.
• 16:29
  Kind of hate that, but it is the truth.
• 16:32
  I know.
• 16:33
  He's the puppeteer and we're the puppets.
• 16:35
  It's just so weird how he knows how much it impacts.
• 16:38
  And I was actually reading something.
• 16:40
  You know how we've been talking about those sort of like market voting.
• 16:44
  What are they called?
• 16:45
  Is it going to be sunny today?
• 16:46
  I'm putting 50 bucks on prediction markets.
• 16:50
  And, you know, we spoke about the tariffs and all these businesses
• 16:53
  starting to claim refunds for the impacts that it had on their business.
• 16:57
  And then there was also all the stuff around Trump and, you know, trading with sort of like insider information or whatever and people around Trump making money.
• 17:05
  Apparently the same thing.
• 17:07
  They're starting to look at all these in the sort of like whatever the betting market's called.
• 17:11
  I can't remember what it's called.
• 17:12
  Prediction market.
• 17:12
  Prediction market.
• 17:14
  There was 150 people who voted the day before that the Iran war happened and people – and they made a lot of money on it.
• 17:23
  and there's all these investigations happening around.
• 17:26
  Yeah.
• 17:26
  You know, like what-
• 17:27
  Well, that's why it's,
• 17:28
  that was one of the key things is like the,
• 17:30
  you can kind of manipulate the prediction
• 17:32
  if you know some inside information.
• 17:35
  There's just, that's the thing with,
• 17:36
  when you're investing in the stock market,
• 17:37
  there are such strict rules
• 17:39
  around trading on inside information.
• 17:41
  If the information is not given to everyone
• 17:43
  and made public, you cannot trade on it.
• 17:45
  And that's why there's such,
• 17:46
  there's like reporting seasons
• 17:48
  because there's kind of closed off periods
• 17:50
  from when people at that company can sell shares.
• 17:53
  before, you know, like if say for the curve year end this, this week, financial year end,
• 18:00
  if we were a public company, we wouldn't be able to sell or buy shares for a period of time.
• 18:05
  There's set times when you can buy and sell as an insider in the business.
• 18:10
  And it's usually just after financial results have been released.
• 18:13
  So you're on the same,
• 18:13
  so you're on the same playing field as everyone else, right?
• 18:16
  Otherwise, if I was the CFO,
• 18:18
  I'd be like, Oh, this is going to be good.
• 18:20
  I'm just buying some shares.
• 18:21
  And then you release
• 18:22
  the result and the share price goes up you're like you know like back in the day you used to
• 18:25
  be able to do that and i know like in the wild west yeah like back in the day when the stock
• 18:31
  market was fairly new quite fun quite fun great time to be in the stock market totally i'm telling
• 18:38
  you put a hundred dollars in this business like it was just so wild like that so fun you know how
• 18:43
  when we spoke about this a couple of weeks ago the prediction market yeah we put something like
• 18:48
  a poll in the podcast like you could vote do you think that these prediction markets are gambling
• 18:54
  or investing you know how you're kind of unsure a hundred percent of people said it was gambling
• 19:00
  and vicks not convinced i was listening to no i'm like it's yeah i'm kind of on the fence so
• 19:07
  it's so interesting right because i i agree but then i also disagree with myself i don't know i
• 19:12
  was listening to the shameless episode a couple like a week ago and they were talking about in
• 19:16
  relation to the
• 19:17
  Manosphere and the
• 19:18
  documentary by
• 19:19
  Louis Theroux and
• 19:21
  essentially how the
• 19:22
  prediction market is
• 19:24
  playing into all
• 19:25
  these young men that
• 19:26
  are trying to not
• 19:27
  work the nine to
• 19:28
  five and provide
• 19:29
  and you know all
• 19:29
  that toxic shit if
• 19:30
  you haven't watched
• 19:31
  the doco definitely
• 19:32
  do but the idea
• 19:34
  that they try all
• 19:35
  the language all
• 19:36
  the marketing
• 19:37
  everything that
• 19:37
  they're doing with
• 19:38
  prediction markets is
• 19:39
  to try and position
• 19:39
  it like trades so
• 19:41
  that all these like
• 19:42
  young or like
• 19:44
  Tesla Manosphere
• 19:44
  can feel like they're
• 19:45
  finance bros
• 19:46
  Yeah.
• 19:47
  And I just, when they were talking about it, I was like, oh my God, that's so true.
• 19:50
  There's an element of gambling, but there's also an element of investing.
• 19:53
  I just think when I heard the shameless skills.
• 19:56
  Hang on, I've got it.
• 19:57
  Oh God.
• 19:57
  So if you are an analyst of Tesla and you had been analyzing it for years, you knew it inside out.
• 20:03
  You knew their announcement for their, you know, their next quarter deliveries were coming out, which moves the stock price.
• 20:08
  And you had done a ton of research and realized it was actually going to be above what the market expects.
• 20:14
  you buy shares you buy you you put money in the prediction market both get a payoff yes one's
• 20:21
  investing in the company one's investing on another platform both get a return both get a
• 20:25
  payoff if you're right i know what you're saying yeah but i i think the the interesting part is
• 20:29
  they're really gamifying it to encourage unhealthy amounts of trading you know so the way that the
• 20:36
  user experience and the language and the marketing is all encouraging you know i i think that people
• 20:43
  aren't going to prediction markets with all this research having done all this stuff and
• 20:47
  putting money in a really educated way it's it's encouraging gambling like behavior yes definitely
• 20:55
  which is not great yeah but I know what you're saying from like a technical standpoint what's
• 21:00
  the difference and it's also if it gets quite big if I was going to invest in Tesla and then I was
• 21:05
  like actually I might just look at see what the prediction markets are predicting is gonna be
• 21:09
  do you know what I mean like you not using it to in putting my money in the prediction mark
• 21:13
  using it as a source of research even us asking the community do you think this is gambling or
• 21:18
  not is so interesting to me that a hundred percent of people said yes because it makes me think
• 21:22
  if there's that many smart people who are voting that and using it yeah well no more just like if
• 21:28
  they're the ones voting it's gambling it kind of reinforces the idea to me that even though we're
• 21:33
  unsure there's all these other opinions that we can take into account and and realize that most
• 21:39
  people think it's gambling so maybe it would be do you know what i mean like i think when you have
• 21:44
  lots of opinions on mass especially we should have done that on kileshi on the prediction
• 21:48
  market is this gambling no we did that's exactly what we're talking about no like we should have
• 21:52
  set up an account and done it in there and made some money off everyone well made money off our
• 21:58
  community thank you guys no just sorry spot the investor yeah or gambler you choose yeah yeah or
• 22:08
  gambler um yeah no it's gonna it's interesting to see i feel like with all these new platforms
• 22:15
  like even with when bitcoin first came out everyone's like oh my gosh and then it gets
• 22:18
  regulated and you know like there's restrictions example because a lot of people when bitcoin came
• 22:22
  out were like it's gambling it's gambling it's gambling because it was new and different and
• 22:25
  weird and people didn't understand it yeah but i think when something new and exciting starts
• 22:29
  get traction that's when the regulation in each country looks at it and say oh actually this is
• 22:35
  this is not good this is or you know what are the what are the risks or the repercussions and then
• 22:40
  they decide essentially if it's gambling or investing we've also had some news out
• 22:46
  you know speaking of damage to people could you sound less excited about that title
• 22:51
  Okay, this is basically, this is a massive story that's just breaking at the moment.
• 22:59
  How do you even explain it?
• 23:00
  Okay, let's backtrack and talk about tobacco and what happened in like the 80s and 90s
• 23:04
  and how this has been compared to the start of what Unraveled with regards to that.
• 23:08
  Because I think that's a really good example.
• 23:09
  Like people were smoking.
• 23:11
  It was this whole like big, fun, cool thing for ages.
• 23:14
  And then all of a sudden people started making claims against tobacco
• 23:17
  that it was really detrimental for people's health.
• 23:20
  yeah heaps of people were claiming about you know lung cancer and all different types of things and
• 23:25
  obviously now you look at you know a pack of cigarettes and there's all sorts of warning
• 23:29
  signs right and you can't advertise on billboards anymore and you can't like there used to be
• 23:34
  magazine covers with like pregnant women smoking which is just wild but see that's wild now but
• 23:39
  back in the day it was basically like an unregulated thing that people thought was cool
• 23:44
  now you pick up a packet and there's like rotting teeth and dying baby it's absolutely horrendous
• 23:50
  but essentially what has happened is all these people complained and and had um lawsuits against
• 23:55
  tobacco companies and what's happened now which we've talked about for ages the idea that social
• 24:01
  media is really damaging for people's mental health you know we've talked about it kind of
• 24:05
  on the peripheries for years yeah but there's been this first case where someone's actually
• 24:09
  been reimbursed for the damage that social media had on them so let's just discuss the case and
• 24:14
  what happened and then what we think the flow and effects might be so she was six when she started
• 24:20
  using youtube and nine when she started using instagram so very very young and she has won a
• 24:26
  case in the us arguing that it damaged her mental health like just being able to scroll infinitely
• 24:33
  um autoplay on from like one thing in youtube to the next thing notifications all of that
• 24:38
  just got her absolutely hooked and it led to anxiety depression all there's so many things
• 24:45
  and she has yet won a case in the US absolutely major that Meta and YouTube are liable for
• 24:55
  her addiction essentially and harming her mental health which kind of goes with everything that's
• 25:03
  happening around the world of social media being banned for under 16s.
• 25:08
  In Australia, end of last
• 25:09
  year, there was a ban on social media for under 16 year olds.
• 25:13
  There's a movement in New Zealand
• 25:15
  at the moment, B416, that's trying to do exactly the same.
• 25:18
  Indonesia as well has just come out
• 25:20
  banning social media.
• 25:21
  So there's like so much going on.
• 25:23
  And interestingly, I tried to find
• 25:24
  some stats around the impact that stopping 16 year olds from using social media would have on
• 25:30
  social media players like meta and google you mean financially like if they weren't a part of
• 25:35
  their like customer base they just don't disclose it wow which is which is fair like they're not
• 25:39
  allowed to be targeting but this is saying that they have been and if you read that careless
• 25:45
  people book by um sarah sarah williams she used to work there she was a kiwi she used to work at
• 25:51
  meta oh i remember you've spoken about this it is wild what goes on behind the scenes at meta
• 25:58
  She worked at Meta in terms of them targeting,
• 26:01
  them saying they don't target under 16s, but they do,
• 26:04
  and, like, just the smoke and mirrors around it.
• 26:07
  It's so off from a moral standpoint.
• 26:10
  But also it might not be financially, you know,
• 26:14
  impactful for these social media players, you know,
• 26:17
  if all of a sudden they can't target under 16-year-olds.
• 26:19
  But, like, any brand, if you think about a bank,
• 26:21
  getting young people in early builds brand loyalty.
• 26:26
  It might not be financially viable, you know, in those first few years or whatever, but they build the brand loyalty.
• 26:33
  They know how to use the customer interface, whatever it is, and they stick around.
• 26:37
  And so they're almost priming their future customer base and they're getting them attached and addicted so that they can monetize them.
• 26:44
  But I think the really interesting thing here is, am I right in saying that Snapchat or Snap and TikTok paid her in private?
• 26:53
  So they kind of settled, but then Meta and YouTube didn't.
• 26:59
  And now they've had to pay her as well.
• 27:02
  Yeah.
• 27:02
  And I mean, am I right?
• 27:04
  This was like millions of dollars that she got in compensation.
• 27:06
  Yeah.
• 27:07
  And also, I don't think it's more that, I don't think it's the monetary, it's kind of what it stands for.
• 27:12
  Yeah.
• 27:12
  Like this just now opens up for so many, you know, when you have a first case like this or you use a case as an example, it sets a standard.
• 27:22
  like this just opens the door for not only other countries to follow suit and bring cases against
• 27:28
  these social media players but also other people in the US to come forward and be like hang on
• 27:33
  I think the interesting thing about this whole case is the idea that up until now we've kind of
• 27:38
  flippantly talked about being addicted to our phone or being addicted to this and you know all
• 27:43
  remember like a couple of years ago and there was all those campaigns being like look up
• 27:46
  like what are you missing by being so engrossed in your phone but it's not really been taken as
• 27:52
  a serious thing to be addicted to your phone because we all are there hasn't been up until
• 27:56
  this point any responsibility taken or any protective mechanisms and actually the they're
• 28:03
  constantly competing for our attention spans like Netflix CEOs talk about the idea that their biggest
• 28:08
  competitor is sleep you know like that's actually people's well-being so I think that in a way
• 28:13
  this is positive firstly i'm so impressed that this woman is 20 and brought this as a case you
• 28:20
  know like how amazing she obviously looked around and saw herself and all of her friends and people
• 28:25
  younger than her so negatively impacted by social media that she was like yeah this i want to like
• 28:30
  make a change which at 20 is like so admirable but i just think that what this similar to what
• 28:35
  you said before about regulations on betting markets coming into play because something's
• 28:41
  come to light hopefully what this will do is put parameters in place where it's protecting people
• 28:47
  more so that it's it's not just exploiting for for money from a tech like platform perspective
• 28:54
  because i think we we kind of like laugh off being addicted to our phones but if you think 20 years
• 29:00
  ago the amount of time that we would have back if we weren't on social media or i don't know i i
• 29:06
  think social media i don't think i think phones i think you know i think it is social media
• 29:12
  that is damaging.
• 29:13
  But I think I read the news on my phone,
• 29:15
  you know, like that's me staying informed.
• 29:17
  Like I guess it's,
• 29:19
  like if I look at her,
• 29:20
  like who,
• 29:21
  why is she on social media at six and nine?
• 29:23
  But I don't,
• 29:24
  and I know that you can say
• 29:25
  that's a parent's responsibility.
• 29:26
  No, no, no.
• 29:27
  But I actually just don't think that's true.
• 29:30
  No, I think there is an element of it,
• 29:32
  but I think,
• 29:33
  I do think that they have to take,
• 29:34
  sorry, that they as in the social media players
• 29:37
  have to take responsibility
• 29:38
  because it's the algorithm as well, right?
• 29:39
  It's feeding them.
• 29:41
  what they're looking at and like when you're young,
• 29:43
  when you're a young girl,
• 29:44
  like gosh,
• 29:45
  everything about like,
• 29:47
  you know,
• 29:47
  what I eat in a day and like all that kind of shit is just like so bad.
• 29:51
  I don't know.
• 29:51
  I think the reason I'm bringing up the phone thing is I was reading an article
• 29:55
  today on the Financial Times.
• 29:58
  Can I just get a bit of a light pad on the back?
• 30:00
  In 2023,
• 30:01
  there's this like little seaside town in Ireland who there's about 20,000
• 30:05
  people that live there.
• 30:06
  and basically they came together as a community
• 30:10
  and decided they didn't want the young kids to be obsessed with phones.
• 30:16
  Essentially all six of the primary schools band together
• 30:19
  and basically told parents, like,
• 30:22
  please don't buy kids' phones until they're 16.
• 30:25
  And the increase in, like, happiness in kids being able to be kids,
• 30:29
  it's kind of amazing what they've done.
• 30:31
  And I just think that when you see –
• 30:33
  there was all these quotes in the article from these young kids
• 30:35
  talking about how they almost they didn't want phones why would they like you know and I just
• 30:40
  think that the change has to be systemic because if five people have a phone and then there's one
• 30:45
  kid that's left out do you know what I mean like it's kind of a community-led thing like if everyone
• 30:49
  didn't have phones or everyone didn't have social media before they were 16 that's the norm and I
• 30:54
  think that the more that we can put protections in place for phones and social media as just
• 31:00
  community level safety whatever I think the flow on impacts will be quite amazing for young people
• 31:08
  yeah if anyone actually is interested in the before 16 it's the New Zealand initiative that
• 31:12
  um they're trying to ban it in New Zealand we'll link the the petition in the podcast show notes
• 31:16
  because it's it's being led actually by one of our investors is one of the people on the
• 31:20
  campaign and it's a really it's a really cool initiative so if anyone's interested
• 31:25
  so there has been a bit of movement in the beauty space soph and i went to a talk month or so ago
• 31:31
  now and i think we've spoken about this on the podcast we really want to get her on but gosh
• 31:35
  what's her name victoria something i just remember she was called victoria
• 31:37
  mulligan mulligan yeah yes yeah yeah and she is called the futurist anyway she
• 31:44
  looks at big trends that are going on in the world and you know demographically society like all of
• 31:49
  that and one of them was yes we're living for longer but we're not living for longer yes
• 31:56
  literally we are living for longer you know but we're not living longer at the end of our lives
• 32:00
  we're wanting to extend the middle and it was all about this the what that means from financial
• 32:06
  standpoint uh do you mean extend the middle in terms of um the quality of life in between yeah
• 32:12
  yeah so like everyone's you know fitter healthier living longer uh so it's not you know an extra 20
• 32:18
  years when we're feeling 90 it's kind of extra 20 years when we're feeling 30 or you know we might
• 32:24
  be 40 but we feel 30 that kind of thing and she was like yes from a financial impact you know what
• 32:28
  does that mean in terms of financial planning but then it was also I was sitting there going oh my
• 32:32
  goodness so right like everything that we're seeing in the health and wellness space at the
• 32:37
  moment around uh you know all these kind of gyms that focus on you know not just working out but
• 32:44
  more like health and wellness but more holistic you know you've got people focusing on vitamins
• 32:49
  and just like really like it's huge right it's like health maxing yeah it's like all the peptides
• 32:56
  like everything it's like how can I be fitter stronger healthier for longer and part of that
• 33:04
  is in the beauty space there is just so much going on in terms of new brands acquisitions
• 33:12
  I mean, we had Alex Earl launch a new beauty brand.
• 33:15
  We've got Estee Lauder here, which is now trying to buy this big Spanish beauty company.
• 33:22
  They've got the owner of Beredo.
• 33:26
  Oh, yes.
• 33:26
  Oh, my God.
• 33:26
  I love Beredo.
• 33:28
  That Barbara Sturm.
• 33:29
  There's a lot of brands in there.
• 33:31
  They're just trying to focus on this whole beauty and wellness space.
• 33:35
  space and we spoke about unilever last week who's trying to get rid of their food division and focus
• 33:40
  on the beauty and wellness can i just before we get into this i just want to say you know
• 33:45
  i am shocked that there is still so much demand in this space like we spoke about hayley bieber
• 33:51
  selling her skincare road for a billion dollars you see celebrities like duolipa launching what's
• 33:59
  is Augustine Beta, Colabs.
• 34:01
  There's, I feel like you look everywhere
• 34:04
  and there is a new celebrity skincare brand.
• 34:06
  It's almost like every single celebrity
• 34:08
  has a skincare brand.
• 34:10
  How on earth is there still that much demand?
• 34:12
  Like there is 500,000 skin masks
• 34:15
  that you could use already.
• 34:16
  And I was like,
• 34:18
  I can't understand how they all survive.
• 34:20
  Like they can't,
• 34:21
  there's not a,
• 34:22
  is there enough demand
• 34:23
  for all of them to be successful?
• 34:24
  Because it just feels like overload.
• 34:26
  Well, if you think of like the billions
• 34:28
  of women that want to extend that period and want to stay looking youthful
• 34:34
  or whatever for that period of time.
• 34:36
  You know, they may have been in that space for like 10 years
• 34:39
  and now it's 30 years.
• 34:41
  You know, you've just three-exped your addressable market.
• 34:44
  And I'm pulling these kind of figures out.
• 34:46
  But you know what I mean.
• 34:47
  And you've got young women coming in and you've got older women
• 34:49
  not leaving this gap in their age that they want to.
• 34:52
  So it's like 18-year-olds to like 70-year-olds are now investing
• 34:56
  and skincare, whereas it used to be maybe a 15, 20 year age.
• 35:00
  Yeah.
• 35:00
  So there is, and there's also, yeah, when there's demand, like with any industry, when
• 35:07
  there's demand, everyone wants to get on board.
• 35:10
  I'm just bored of it.
• 35:11
  I'm so bored of being.
• 35:13
  I'm just like, just tell me which one to take and do.
• 35:16
  And like, you know, it's like, don't give me your 10 different face masks.
• 35:19
  Just tell me the best one.
• 35:19
  I know.
• 35:20
  By the way, the best one is Biodance.
• 35:22
  Oh yeah, it's great.
• 35:23
  I rate that.
• 35:23
  I put it on the plane last night.
• 35:24
  Oh my God, I did that too.
• 35:26
  I just find I don't really sleep that well on them though.
• 35:29
  No.
• 35:29
  Also, it's so embarrassing.
• 35:31
  Like I got up to go to the loo and I looked like a scary ghost.
• 35:34
  And I was like walking down there with my hair over my face trying to be like, don't look at me.
• 35:38
  I'm really embarrassed.
• 35:39
  But I actually, I went to an event a couple of nights ago and I sat next to this woman who has started an AI business where she's basically a –
• 35:48
  I've met her.
• 35:49
  Wait.
• 35:49
  And they like recommend.
• 35:51
  Yes.
• 35:51
  It's incredible.
• 35:53
  How weird is that?
• 35:54
  I know.
• 35:55
  So basically it goes on to, say, cult beauty or different beauty websites.
• 35:59
  It might be Chemist Warehouse or whatever,
• 36:01
  where there's an overwhelming amount of products.
• 36:03
  And you might say, I'm 34.
• 36:05
  My skin has acne.
• 36:07
  I want to spend $100, and it recommends the best products.
• 36:10
  And I just thought, thank God, because I am so fucking overwhelmed by products.
• 36:14
  It's not funny.
• 36:15
  Well, I mean, Gen Z is 40% of the global beauty consumers in the world.
• 36:22
  Like, that is wild.
• 36:23
  Isn't that kind of sad?
• 36:24
  40% of them, about the same percent, yeah, 40% discover their brands on social media.
• 36:29
  So here we are saying social media is bad.
• 36:31
  I mean, it's kind of all in one conversation, right?
• 36:36
  They're looking at probably beautiful, beautiful women on social media and like, use this, use that.
• 36:41
  I mean, if I think of what I've bought in terms of skincare in the last 12 months, guilty, it's from social media.
• 36:49
  I just honestly, if I get one more ad, they keep spamming me.
• 36:52
  it's this like stick that looks like Vaseline and they're like I can't believe I didn't know
• 36:57
  about this and like I just put it around my lips and it's like oh my god and it's like honestly
• 37:01
  the most ridiculous ads and I'm honestly this close to screenshotting and being like do you
• 37:05
  think we're that stupid like I know for a fact that that just is like the most shit product ever
• 37:11
  I mean granted I actually did buy like a product like that once so maybe that's why I'm being
• 37:16
  spammed but I'm just like I'm just supposed to throw my phone in a canal I'm so off it I guess
• 37:22
  like sorry bring it back I'm feeling annoyed uh is like this is an investing trend I think this is
• 37:29
  this is around for gonna be around for a very long time the health and wellness and then like a
• 37:35
  subset of that I think is kind of technical beauty you know like all the little technologies I've
• 37:40
  spoken about this before this is kind of a space that I'm interested in terms of investing in I
• 37:45
  I wanted to ask you about something.
• 37:47
  I am quite proud to say that this week is the first week that I've decided I want to bring a bit more to the table with the Curve Weekly.
• 37:55
  I want to try and not just be sitting here like some goldfish that's absorbing your brain.
• 37:59
  I want to try and actually bring some more interesting stories.
• 38:04
  And one of the things I wanted to ask you about that I didn't understand but I've seen spoken about is this whole private credit thing that people –
• 38:12
  And I heard an article, or I can't even remember where I saw it,
• 38:15
  but all these people are freaking out about the idea
• 38:18
  that people are taking money out of funds.
• 38:21
  And it was something about liquidity,
• 38:23
  and then it means the fund falls
• 38:26
  because then they divest from their best investments.
• 38:29
  Anyway, I didn't really understand why it was a problem if this continued.
• 38:33
  Can you just explain it, please?
• 38:35
  Maybe it's not that interesting, but I was like, oh, I want to know.
• 38:38
  Private credit, yes.
• 38:39
  So as the name suggests, this is when someone, so credit is effectively loaning someone some money.
• 38:45
  So if you go to the bank and you can't get a loan, you go to someone or, you know, an investment fund or an investment manager and go, hey, can you lend me this money?
• 38:56
  So credit is just, I'm going to lend you $100,000.
• 38:59
  You're going to pay me back in whatever, 12 months, four years and pay me interest.
• 39:05
  So it's just like a loan.
• 39:06
  But from a not traditional source.
• 39:08
  So it's basically not from a bank.
• 39:10
  Yeah.
• 39:11
  So there's been this whole wave since the global financial crisis,
• 39:16
  like years ago, there was a real, like, crackdown on banks lending money
• 39:21
  because they were just lending like willy-nilly.
• 39:23
  And so there's been a big crackdown that is like, you know what,
• 39:26
  you have to be, you know, of X credit rating and all this kind of stuff.
• 39:30
  There's like hoops to jump through to get money.
• 39:32
  It's harder, basically.
• 39:34
  Yeah.
• 39:34
  And it's only getting harder.
• 39:36
  and people are looking at alternative ways to get money.
• 39:40
  And one kind of industry that's grown a lot in the last, I'd say, 10 years
• 39:47
  is the private credit space where you go to a non-bank to get a loan,
• 39:54
  essentially, for anything, anything you want to get.
• 39:57
  It's so weird because I do think as soon as people say,
• 39:59
  oh, like, go to this lending company, for example, if it was for a –
• 40:03
  you couldn't get a loan from a bank for a mortgage
• 40:05
  or perhaps you, I don't know, to me it sounds really spammy
• 40:10
  and I don't know if that's like an overhang of something
• 40:12
  but the idea of private lending to me sounds kind of dodgy.
• 40:16
  And is that the case or is it actually that it's more,
• 40:20
  it was born out of necessity because lots of people
• 40:23
  who legitimately need money couldn't get it?
• 40:25
  I don't know.
• 40:26
  Yeah, I guess it's like, yeah, it would be like if the curve
• 40:29
  wanted to borrow money to do something and we go to the bank
• 40:32
  and they're like, oh, actually you're a startup, you're a bit risky,
• 40:34
  you know you don't have a lot of assets uh so so yeah you can borrow from us but it's going to be
• 40:40
  24% interest you'd be like oh screw that right so then you might go to somewhere else and it's like
• 40:45
  actually we don't actually have as strict rules as banks we can do it for 15% um or it could be
• 40:51
  the other way right it could be the bank would say no and then you go to a you go to a non-bank
• 40:56
  lender and it's like it's actually 25% but you're so desperate you're like okay I just need the
• 40:59
  money you know like there's a lot of so the idea is that you can get the money it's just probably
• 41:04
  a higher interest rate because it's more risky for whoever you're borrowing money from to lend
• 41:08
  it to you.
• 41:09
  Yeah, not necessarily as well.
• 41:10
  It might just be that the banks don't lend to you for
• 41:12
  whatever reason, but it's usually quicker as well.
• 41:16
  Banks take forever.
• 41:18
  Yeah, so there's a bit more
• 41:20
  human element, I guess.
• 41:21
  There's a bit more flexibility because these are the people that
• 41:25
  are lending the money, usually investment funds.
• 41:29
  So usually a fund might invest in the stock market
• 41:32
  and they're trying to get a 10% return per year.
• 41:36
  Whereas they might be like, oh, actually, we can lend money to the curve
• 41:38
  and they're going to pay us 12% interest a year.
• 41:40
  That's actually a really great return.
• 41:42
  Oh, and if we do the curve and then we also do the swerve over here,
• 41:46
  they're going to pay us, they're a bit more risky,
• 41:47
  they're going to pay us 20%.
• 41:48
  Awesome.
• 41:49
  Now we've got an average of 18% return on our fund.
• 41:52
  So now there's these funds that are coming being like,
• 41:54
  they still vet you and they still check,
• 41:57
  but they've actually started to generate some really good returns.
• 42:01
  Amazing.
• 42:01
  from lending to these companies that are not getting loans from the bank.
• 42:05
  But this is the thing.
• 42:06
  It's all well and good when things are going well.
• 42:09
  And we opened this podcast by saying the war in Iran
• 42:15
  and the stock markets are falling and things are getting a bit precarious.
• 42:17
  There might be inflation.
• 42:18
  There might be rising interest rates.
• 42:21
  This has kind of led to a lot of murmurs in the private credit space of,
• 42:26
  remember, these are companies that are more risky.
• 42:29
  Yeah, slightly more risky.
• 42:31
  And we're starting to see them default on their loans.
• 42:34
  We're starting to see like a few things happen that is – could have major repercussions for the financial system.
• 42:42
  But – because whenever there's like a new – so if we think about the global financial crisis, that was mortgages – the downfall of that was mortgages that were being lent to people that could not pay them back.
• 42:56
  And they've called these subprime mortgages, which means I lend to you and then you lend to someone else.
• 43:00
  it's like this domino effect so if you can't pay at the top shit we're not getting paid at the
• 43:05
  bottom and so it was like this whole unraveling and people are saying this private credit is
• 43:10
  kind of a new-ish thing it's only been around i mean people loaning money's been around forever
• 43:15
  but like as an investable space has really come into its heyday in the last kind of 10 years and
• 43:21
  so people like hang on we don't know how this is gonna if this does if companies do start defaulting
• 43:27
  what does that mean for everything else?
• 43:30
  What are the flow-on effects essentially?
• 43:31
  So this is like people are a bit like, ooh.
• 43:33
  So they think that basically what happened with the global financial crisis
• 43:36
  with all of the unwinding when people couldn't pay their mortgages,
• 43:39
  they're worried that private credit is going to have the same kind of tumble down.
• 43:42
  Well, a lot of the loans that have been lent out are to kind of AI tech
• 43:47
  software businesses.
• 43:48
  And what we're seeing at the moment is particularly in software businesses,
• 43:53
  people are realizing AI companies can do what software companies have sold us for so many years
• 44:01
  you know like these big kind of sass models you know software as a service you're now being able
• 44:06
  to create yourself with AI so it's kind of unraveling all these valuations and like so
• 44:12
  they might not be profitable which means they might not be able to pay their loans back which
• 44:15
  means that this whole investable asset class could come tumbling down because what I heard
• 44:21
  was the idea that there's all these investors in private credit
• 44:25
  that are wanting to pull their money out,
• 44:27
  which is what's happening at the moment, right?
• 44:30
  Yes, so when you have a private credit fund,
• 44:35
  everyone's slightly different,
• 44:36
  but say you get a whole lot of investors on board
• 44:39
  and you manage to raise $100 million in this fund
• 44:42
  from people that are like, yep, cool,
• 44:44
  we want to put our money into that fund and then you can lend it out.
• 44:48
  So they put the money in the fund and then there's an investor manager
• 44:50
  that then lends that money out to lots of different companies
• 44:53
  and gets the return on that, that you've now got investors
• 44:57
  in that fund going, things are looking a bit precarious,
• 45:00
  I want to take my money out.
• 45:01
  And you're like, well, hang on, we've lent it out over here
• 45:03
  so we don't actually have the money.
• 45:04
  So it's like this whole thing.
• 45:05
  Yeah.
• 45:06
  And look, these investment managers aren't stupid.
• 45:09
  It's like they know there's a certain, you know,
• 45:11
  you've got to keep a pool of money set aside for people to take out
• 45:14
  if they want and all of that.
• 45:15
  But it is, yeah, when you start seeing a sector or, you know,
• 45:21
  a part of the market starting to get scared really
• 45:24
  or starting to unravel a bit like the tech companies
• 45:28
  and AI looking a bit shaky, like that does send some nervousness.
• 45:31
  And what you don't want to happen.
• 45:33
  Everyone to pull their money out.
• 45:34
  Everyone to be like, to get fair and fearful and pull their money.
• 45:37
  And then the whole thing unravels.
• 45:39
  And it's like back in the day when you'd have run on the banks,
• 45:41
  like when people were scared about inflation,
• 45:43
  they would go and withdraw all their money from the bank
• 45:46
  or if they're worried about the banks collapsing,
• 45:48
  you'd go and withdraw all your money to the point that they had to like
• 45:51
  close banks, close ATMs because –
• 45:53
  The banks have lent money to other people.
• 45:55
  Totally, there's a balancing, right?
• 45:56
  There's a pool in the middle that they kind of keep
• 45:58
  for small withdrawals and stuff.
• 46:00
  But if there is – it's like a seesaw.
• 46:02
  If there's too much – too many people wanting to take their money out
• 46:06
  on one side, you have to get it back from the people on the other side.
• 46:12
  and it's like a bank is one big connected isn't it kind of one big credit fund yeah well and when
• 46:19
  you have too many people want to take their money out it just throws everything out of kilter and
• 46:22
  that's when that's when financial systems break so there's there's two really large private credit
• 46:27
  funds uh in the u.s that have actually stopped people from taking money out so that's a sign
• 46:32
  well it's also like it's kind of like when like china closed its stock market like i remember back
• 46:37
  in the day it closed the stock market was in free fall and it just closed the stock market and we're
• 46:41
  Like people can't get their money out.
• 46:43
  And when you start to implement measures like that,
• 46:46
  it creates more fear because people, as soon as you open again,
• 46:49
  people are running to the doors to try and get their money out,
• 46:51
  whether it's a bank, whether it's a stock market,
• 46:53
  whether it's private credit funds.
• 46:54
  So you need to manage it quite carefully.
• 46:58
  Because also if you say, sorry, no one can take their money out,
• 47:00
  everyone's going to panic anyway.
• 47:01
  Oh, totally.
• 47:01
  And then the whole thing turns upside down.
• 47:03
  Yeah.
• 47:03
  So it's – but then you leave it open and then it creates more issue.
• 47:06
  Yeah, it's just like a whole thing.
• 47:08
  I think being the head of anything like that, any kind of massive financial institution, or even if you're pulling the strings of the economy, you're involved in government.
• 47:20
  Like, God, the pressure and amount of things that could go wrong if you slightly tweak something a little bit too far.
• 47:28
  It would be an overwhelming amount of pressure.
• 47:30
  Imagine if you sneezed and you accidentally pressed enter and put an extra few zeros on something.
• 47:34
  God.
• 47:34
  And then, yeah.
• 47:39
  oh my god i forgot my cue pick up the phone hello kia ora ladies love what you do thank you so much
• 47:45
  for putting all the time and energy that you do into the curve you're really helping educate such
• 47:50
  a massive audience it's amazing i'm hannah a 30 something living in auckland and i put in 125
• 47:58
  dollars a week into investments getting that dollar cost averaging and i've been doing that
• 48:04
  for about four years.
• 48:05
  I have about $30,000 set aside in investments at the moment.
• 48:10
  I'm nervous
• 48:11
  because when I plug my future trajectory into a retirement calculator, it pops out with such a
• 48:20
  variety of different numbers.
• 48:22
  And I would love to understand why some calculators will say I end up
• 48:26
  with $500,000, $600,000, and some over a million.
• 48:31
  They've all been adjusted for inflation, but
• 48:34
  there's those huge differences just get me so anxious like I'm not doing enough and $125 a
• 48:41
  week to me feels quite significant if I go over that it'll start impacting my life um and I just
• 48:49
  want to avoid that but am I doing enough I don't know can you answer that thank you love what you
• 48:55
  do Hannah thank you so much for your call lovely to have you on the show listen to the million
• 49:01
  dollar retirement calculator.
• 49:03
  No joke.
• 49:03
  What's that?
• 49:04
  Listen to the million dollar one.
• 49:05
  Which one's that?
• 49:06
  The one that she said
• 49:08
  spits out a million dollars.
• 49:09
  I'm like,
• 49:09
  listen to that one.
• 49:10
  Right.
• 49:10
  Sorry,
• 49:11
  that was a funny,
• 49:12
  I didn't realise.
• 49:13
  No,
• 49:13
  actually,
• 49:14
  if anything,
• 49:14
  listen to the more
• 49:15
  conservative one
• 49:16
  that you'll come out
• 49:16
  better off.
• 49:17
  But she,
• 49:18
  I think she had the nail
• 49:19
  on the head with like,
• 49:20
  every single one.
• 49:20
  Wait,
• 49:20
  wait,
• 49:21
  before we get into this,
• 49:22
  can we just congratulate her?
• 49:23
  Like the fact that you've
• 49:24
  set aside that amount
• 49:25
  every week
• 49:26
  and you've got to 30,000
• 49:27
  in four years
• 49:28
  is hopefully really inspiring
• 49:30
  for people that are
• 49:31
  list like listening but also I loved what she said when she was like I don't know if I could
• 49:36
  go any higher than that because it's going to impact my life I'm like god you've really done
• 49:39
  your homework I'm proud yeah it's awesome yes yeah sorry continue yeah I think she hit the
• 49:44
  nail on the head with the inflation like yes they're all adjusted for inflation but they
• 49:47
  probably they could be using different rates like depends what like I would look at the fine print
• 49:51
  and that also they could be using different returns as well for the growth of the of the
• 49:58
  money and growth of the investment so some might be using 10 some might be using seven and even
• 50:03
  though that might or even seven ones using seven ones using eight like that's massive difference
• 50:08
  over what will be what i don't know 30 years so uh that can be massive differences but i would
• 50:16
  just always take the most conservative and then if you're actually at your maximum in terms of
• 50:21
  that 125 a week which is incredible by the way and i think even if it's showing up that you're
• 50:27
  have half a million that's that's amazing but I can understand her anxiety about okay well one's
• 50:32
  actually manageable I'm excited by what that looks like it's going to be and one's absolutely
• 50:37
  terrifying do you think another thing to think about would be if you look at the returns was at
• 50:42
  seven percent versus ten and then look at your investments and where are they are there places
• 50:47
  where you could be a bit riskier and have a higher potential return given you've got so long yes
• 50:53
  Yeah, definitely.
• 50:54
  It's just, it's also like these calculators, there's so much strictness around them because it's exactly what they don't want you to do is to be like, oh, cool, I'm going to have a million.
• 51:05
  You know, there's huge caveats like this.
• 51:08
  Yes, they might have an average return in there of 10%, but there's going to be years when you don't and like all of that, like they can only predict so much.
• 51:15
  yeah it's like taking it with a grain of salt not relying on it a hundred percent but realizing cool
• 51:21
  if I get between 800 to a million then that's then that's great or whatever your number is
• 51:29
  but it should be yeah kind of like I guess a baseline this whole idea of your kind of retirement
• 51:34
  or your final number or your enough number or what you're aiming towards we actually spoke about in
• 51:39
  an interview with Simran from Friends That Invest and that comes out in a couple of weeks and we
• 51:44
  broke down how she figures out her enough number and then I did it for myself so that's out in a
• 51:49
  few weeks and I think that if yeah if you're listening to this and you're like oh god I
• 51:54
  actually haven't even figured out how much I should have or would have based on where you're
• 51:58
  at and you're investing um then hopefully that episode will be really helpful oh actually sorry
• 52:05
  it's not out in a few weeks Emily just was like it's out on Thursday so that's out this week
• 52:09
  for anyone that wants to listen.
• 52:11
  But I think it's, yeah, with investing, it's, I don't know.
• 52:15
  There was about to be a real moment of, you know,
• 52:18
  like I could just feel it.
• 52:19
  You were going somewhere good.
• 52:21
  You want to inspire, you know, not.
• 52:24
  Freak people out.
• 52:25
  Yeah.
• 52:26
  And I was going to freak people out.
• 52:27
  Why?
• 52:27
  What were you going to say?
• 52:28
  Well, no, it's just like, it's, you never know what's going to,
• 52:30
  like, it's going to happen around the corner, right?
• 52:32
  So it's like, yes, we have these numbers and we have this,
• 52:35
  all of this this plan but like it's never going to be perfect whether it's a personal issue or
• 52:41
  the stock market or like you know like your best defense is building up enough of a buffer
• 52:46
  that should anything go haywire you're kind of de-stressed from a financial perspective because
• 52:53
  you've got this plan in place but plans never go to plan so it's kind of this whole
• 52:59
  if you're on track for a million awesome that is great and hats off to you because that's
• 53:04
  incredible and so many people don't have that plan in place but life can deviate from that plan
• 53:11
  as well if that makes sense i think maybe what i'm reading between the lines here is you're trying to
• 53:15
  say hannah you're doing an amazing job like the fact that you're investing regularly your dollar
• 53:20
  cost averaging you're you're putting as much as you can into the stock market like you're doing
• 53:24
  your best you kind of spits out 500 spritz million like just try and you're on the right track yeah
• 53:29
  like try and think in the back of your head okay it would be amazing if the top number is is
• 53:34
  actually what it's going to mean but I think ultimately maybe the reason that you're querying
• 53:40
  it is because maybe you could find more and it would give you the answer you want and if that's
• 53:46
  not the case then you just have to know you're doing your best you put aside as much as you can
• 53:49
  without impacting your life now and actually that's amazing but if you're like oh shit I actually in
• 53:55
  between like I know I want way more than that go back to the drawing board with your budget and see
• 53:59
  If you can invest more.
• 54:00
  But yeah, God, shit, our audience is smart.
• 54:03
  Love them.
• 54:04
  Oh my God.
• 54:04
  So great.
• 54:05
  It's just so cool.
• 54:06
  I feel like the amount of women who are financially savvy
• 54:11
  and like on their way to changing statistics
• 54:13
  around how much women have in retirement is insanely cool.
• 54:16
  Thank you so much though.
• 54:17
  If anyone's got any things that they want to ask,
• 54:20
  you can obviously like send us a DM or comment on the podcast.
• 54:22
  But also we do have our Curve Hotline.
• 54:25
  It's really fun to play voice notes.
• 54:27
  So if you do want to ask something, let us know.
• 54:29
  And we actually just wanted to put out a little kind of brainstorm for everyone listening.
• 54:35
  So in about a month's time, in fact, I'm actually not even going to give too much away here,
• 54:40
  but we have some exciting things happening with the podcast.
• 54:43
  And we're wanting to do a bit of a rebrand on what we call the Curve Weekly.
• 54:48
  And we've been trying to think about different names.
• 54:50
  We've brainstormed as a team and we've got the Curve Briefing, the Curve News, the Curve
• 54:54
  financial news, the curve market update, the curve market brief, or the curve financial briefing.
• 54:59
  We're trying to come up with something that basically doesn't have the word weekly in it,
• 55:06
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• 55:08
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• 55:10
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• 55:14
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• 55:16
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• 55:20
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• 55:20
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• 55:22
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• 55:24
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• 55:24
  from us for this week.
• 55:26
  Bye guys.
• 55:27
  Bye.
• 55:27
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• 55:28
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• 55:28
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• 55:37
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• 55:38
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• 55:54
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• 56:06
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• 56:09
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• 56:12
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