Latest / Elon Musk Podcast / Can Isaacman Beat China to the Moon?

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Can Isaacman Beat China to the Moon? · Elon Musk Podcast

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  now would help the show tremendously.
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  Thank you so much. Jared Azigman says the United
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  States will land astronauts on the moon before President Trump
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  leaves office in January of 2029.
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  It's a bold claim from NASA's new administrator, a billionaire
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  entrepreneur in private astronaut who was just sworn in
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  on December 18th after a turbulent nomination process.
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  In an interview with CNBC on Friday, Isaac Man said returning
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  to the moon is key to unlocking what he calls the orbital
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  economy. He talked about establishing
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  space data centers, mining helium 3 from the lunar surface
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  for fusion power, and building nuclear powered moon base.
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  He said within the next three years, we're going to land
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  American astronauts again on the moon, but this time with the
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  infrastructure. To say now that timeline is very
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  aggressive. NASA has not landed humans on
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  the moon since Apollo 17 in 1972, and the agency's artist
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  program has been plagued by delays, cost overruns, and
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  leadership uncertainty. So what makes Isaacman think he
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  can deliver what NASA has failed to do for over 50 years?
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  The answer involves SpaceX, Blue Origin, a leaked 62 page
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  document called Project Athena, and a political back story that
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  includes Trump polling, Isaacman's nomination at the
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  Republic, falling out with Elon Musk.
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  Now, there's a lot of twists here.
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  We're going to walk through who Isaac Ben is, what happened to
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  his nomination, what his vision for NASA actually looks like,
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  and whether any of this is actually achievable.
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  And we'll get right into that after this very short break.
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  Now, Jared Isaacman is not a career NASA employee.
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  He's not a government official. He founded a payment processing
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  company called Shift Poor Payments as a teenager in his
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  parents basement in the 90's. The company now processes
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  transactions for over 30% of restaurants and 40% of hotels in
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  America. His estimated net worth is $1.4
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  billion. He used that wealth to found
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  Draken International, a defense contractor that operates one of
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  the world's largest fleets of privately owned fighter jets.
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  Draken provides adversary training to US, British and NATO
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  air forces, and Isaacman has logged over 7000 flight hours
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  and is rated to fly multiple military jets, including the F5,
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  Mig 29 and T38. He also went to space.
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  In 2021, he commanded Inspiration for the first all
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  civilian orbital mission aboard a SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft,
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  and the mission raised over $250 million for Saint Jude
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  Children's Research Hospital. In 2024, he led Polaris Dawn,
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  during which he became the first private citizen to perform a
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  spacewalk. The mission reached a peak
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  altitude of 870 miles farther from Earth that any human had
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  travelled since the last Apollo moon mission.
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  Both missions flew on SpaceX rockets, and Isaacman has a
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  close relationship with Elon Musk.
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  That relationship is both an asset and a liability, as the
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  nomination process made clear. Trump first nominated Isaacman
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  to lead NASA in late December 2024.
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  A confirmation vote was scheduled for May of 2025.
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  Then, on May 31st, Trump abruptly pulled the nomination.
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  The official reason cited was prior associations, specifically
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  donation Isaacman had made to Democratic candidates.
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  But the timing was suspicious. The exact week Musk left his
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  role in the Trump administration on bad terms with the president,
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  Musk had been publicly critical of the president's spending
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  bill, calling a disgusting abomination.
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  Trump called Musk a man who had lost his mind, and the Isaac Man
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  nomination appeared to be collateral damage in that feud.
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  Now without a permanent administrator, NASA struggled.
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  The agency faced steep budget cuts in the White House's
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  proposed 2026 budget, which sought to slash NASA's science
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  budget by nearly 50% and overall funding by 20%.
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  About 1/5 of NASA's civil servant workforce departed
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  through buyouts and attrition. The Goddard Institute for Space
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  Studies, a major research facility, was shut down in July.
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  Trump gave Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy a second
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  job as interim NASA administrator, and Duffy was
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  aggressive about the moon mission but could not focus
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  fully on NASA while running the Transportation department.
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  Then, on November 4th, Trump reverse course and renominated
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  Isaacman. The president did not explain
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  why Musk and Trump had reconciled at this point,
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  meeting at a memorial service in September, but before Isaac
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  Mann's confirmation vote, someone leaked Project Athena, a
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  62 page draft plan for restructuring NASA.
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  The leak was attributed to Duffy or someone in his camp, and
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  Duffy allegedly did not want to give up control of NASA.
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  During this period, Musk called Duffy Sean Dummy and accused him
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  of trying to kill NASA. Despite the drama, the Senate
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  confirmed Isaacman on December 17th by a vote of 67 to 30 with
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  bipartisan support. He was sworn in the following
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  day. Project Athena lays out
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  Isaacman's vision vision for NASA.
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  The core idea is to move the agency away from what he calls
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  the taxpayer dependent model. He wants to leverage commercial
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  partnerships to do more with less.
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  The plan envisions a space economy where private companies
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  eventually generate enough value to cover the cost of operating a
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  space. For example, Athena proposes
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  science as a service for Earth observation satellites.
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  Instead of NASA building and operating its own satellites,
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  the agency would purchase data from commercial providers who
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  already do the same work. It'll be cheaper, but it would
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  also cede capability to the private sector.
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  Athena also discusses transferring some assets from
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  NASA centers like Goddard to other facilities, which has
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  alarmed some members of Congress now.
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  Isaac Man addressed NASA employees in his first town hall
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  on December 19th, spoke about cutting bureaucratic drag and
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  flattening the organizational structure to accelerate decision
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  making. He said he wants to push
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  responsibility down to talented employees who are capable of
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  getting the job done. He acknowledged the anxiety
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  among NASA science staff, but said he supports science and
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  understands its importance. He did not, however, commit to
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  specific programs or answer detailed questions about the
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  White House budget proposal. He said he had a lot to catch up
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  on. It's concerning for those who
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  want concrete assurances about the future of NASA science and
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  the future of their positions and their jobs.
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  Now the the Artemis program is the path back to the moon.
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  Artemis 2, the first crude test flight of the Space Launch
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  System rocket, an Orion spacecraft that's expected to
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  launch in early Of 20264 astronauts, 3 American, 1
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  Canadian will fly around the moon without landing on it, and
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  that mission will be the highest profile space event since the
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  final Apollo flights. Artemis 3 is the landing
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  mission. SpaceX, Elon Musk company is
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  contracted to build the Human Landing System using a variant
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  of its Starship vehicle. Blue Origin is also developing A
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  competing Lander. During his interim time as the
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  administrator, Duffy reopened the Human Landing System
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  contract to allow Blue Origin to compete for the Artemis 3
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  mission, signalling frustration with Spacex's timeline.
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  Now, Isaac Man has set up a competition between SpaceX and
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  Blue Origin. Both companies submitted
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  expedited plans for how to land humans on the moon before
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  January 2029, and NASA is evaluating those proposals.
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  The agency will also issue a request for information to the
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  broader aerospace industry. A committee of subject matter
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  experts will determine the best path forward now, Isaac Man
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  said, and his confirmation hearing the SpaceX, the Starship
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  and Blue Origins New Glen Heavy lift rockets, which are designed
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  for reusability, will enable the US to travel to and from the
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  Moon affordably and frequently. He framed this and setting up
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  for Mars missions beyond that now.
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  Trump signed an executive order on December 18th, the same day
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  Isaacman was sworn in, mandating US boots on the lunar surface by
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  2028 and a nuclear powered lunar outpost by 20-30.
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  The order also calls for a $50 billion in private investment in
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  space by 2028 and plans to replace the International Space
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  Station with private outposts after its planned 20-30 the
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  orbit. Isaac Mann was in the room when
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  Trump signed the order. In an interview afterward, he
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  suggested he might try to beat China to the moon even sooner
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  than 2028. China has announced plans to
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  land astronauts on the moon by 2030, and the Trump
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  administration has framed Artemis as a second space race
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  with national security implications.
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  Now the question is whether any of this is actually achievable.
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  NASA's Artemis program has already experienced significant
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  delays. The Space Launch System has been
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  criticized for high cost and slow development.
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  Spacex's Starship is still in testing, though it has made
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  pretty rapid progress. Blue Origins New Glen just
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  completed its first mission. Both companies need to
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  demonstrate that their Landers can safely carry humans to the
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  land lunar landing surface and return them.
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  That requires uncrewed test missions before anyone is
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  certified to fly. Timelines really tight.
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  The political will is there, at least for now, and Congress
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  included funding for Artemis missions through Artemis 5 and a
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  budget reconciliation bill passed in July.
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  Isaac Men affirmed his support for these programs of record and
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  whether he can execute them in the time available is open to
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  question. Now 36 former NASA astronauts,
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  including former administrator Administrator Charlie Bolden,
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  signed a letter endorsing Isaacman.
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  They cited his flight experience as a vital asset.
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  The Planetary Society, an advocacy group, said after his
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  confirmation that Isaacman has the opportunity to stabilize and
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  reinvigorate the US space program after a year of historic
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  disruptions. Supporters see him as an
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  outsider who can bring fresh thinking and entrepreneurial
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  energy to a bureaucratic agency. Critics worry about his close
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  ties to Musk and whether SpaceX will receive preferential
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  treatment. Isaac Men has said his
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  relationship with Musk is professional, not personal.
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  He said there are no pictures of his set at dinner, at a bar, on
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  an airplane, around a yacht because they don't exist, he
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  said at his confirmation hearing.
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  Whether that distinction matters and practice remains to be seen.
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  NASA's largest contractor will inevitably benefit from an
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  administrator who believes in commercial partnerships.
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  That is direction American space policy has been heading for
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  years, and Isaacman is just the most visible embodiment of that
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  shift. Hey, thank you so much for
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