Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Draft 2024 | Final Best Bets

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NFL Draft 2024 | Final Best Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:12
Speaker 1: six ' five. We are part of the Action Network.
0:15
Speaker 1: I am Chadmilman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
0:21
Speaker 1: Welcome to Draft Day, also known as the most important
0:26
Speaker 1: day in the history of the Chicago Bears franchise. A
0:34
Speaker 1: few short years ago, on Draft Day, huge quarterback top
0:41
Speaker 1: heavy draft, ton of rumors about quarterbacks and whether or
0:46
Speaker 1: not Mac Jones would go number three. Overall, it was
0:52
Speaker 1: a day of breathtaking, news breaking, heart stopping odds moves
0:58
Speaker 1: that included my co host, my companion, my campadre, my
1:03
Speaker 1: BFF professional better Simon Hunter pulling over on the side
1:07
Speaker 1: of the highway driving back from Atlantic City to update
1:11
Speaker 1: us with what he was hearing, and lo and behold,
1:16
Speaker 1: here we are again with QB rumors dominating the top
1:20
Speaker 1: of the market. Let's bring them in eto, So I'm.
1:23
Speaker 2: In Hello, Chad. Yeah, one of my favorite days of
1:27
Speaker 2: the year. Drafted. I honestly love these days.
1:30
Speaker 3: Like even last night trying to go to bed, it's like,
1:32
Speaker 3: even though I have the number one pick, like you
1:34
Speaker 3: do all these things, it's just it's just fun and exciting.
1:37
Speaker 3: It's an exciting day for the stupidest of reasons. Of
1:39
Speaker 3: its just hope. Nothing's happening tomorrow, the's got no games,
1:42
Speaker 3: will be played for months. But it's just if you
1:45
Speaker 3: love hope, which I do. That's all that a draft is.
1:48
Speaker 3: You're literally drafting for the future. You're getting your hope
1:51
Speaker 3: in your dream. So Chad's dream of having a four
1:54
Speaker 3: thousand yard passer could be drafted tonight.
2:00
Speaker 1: Listen, you're one hundred percent right about the hope. And
2:02
Speaker 1: I think anyone who knows me, Matt Mitchell will sit
2:06
Speaker 1: here and nod silently when I say this. There's no
2:10
Speaker 1: one who is more irrationally optimistic than I am. Let
2:15
Speaker 1: me give you a little taste of how nobody is
2:18
Speaker 1: immune to the enthusiasm of draft day. Normally, I go
2:24
Speaker 1: downstairs in the morning, you know, six forty five, seven o'clock,
2:28
Speaker 1: my son getting ready for school. He's sitting on the couch, he's,
2:31
Speaker 1: you know, scrolling through his phone, he's eating a bagel.
2:34
Speaker 1: And every day I woke up, I wake up, I'm like,
2:37
Speaker 1: I am ready to attack the day. Today is going
2:39
Speaker 1: to be a great day. We will be great today.
2:41
Speaker 1: We will move the needle today. And every morning I
2:45
Speaker 1: will walk in to see my son sitting on the
2:48
Speaker 1: couch getting ready to go to school, and I'll be
2:51
Speaker 1: ready to give him a pep talk and I'll be like,
2:53
Speaker 1: we're gonna be awesome today. And normally he just looks
2:56
Speaker 1: up at me and he goes before I can even
2:58
Speaker 1: say anything, just give me a look and say what
3:03
Speaker 1: do you want? But today I got down there and
3:08
Speaker 1: I saw him, and I looked at him and I
3:12
Speaker 1: said to him, you know what today is? And he
3:15
Speaker 1: gives me a big smile and he goes, Oh, Itch,
3:18
Speaker 1: draft day. We have real NFL betting happening today. We're
3:25
Speaker 1: gonna treat this episode more like a regular season Thursday episode.
3:28
Speaker 1: We're going to go through the five ish bets we
3:30
Speaker 1: have agreed on that we love. We will highlight, as
3:33
Speaker 1: Simon says, an exact decision. We will even do sharp
3:36
Speaker 1: calls with Simon telling us what he's hearing because he
3:39
Speaker 1: has plugged into people moving numbers. As Bill Belichick new
3:44
Speaker 1: sort of newly on the Street, Bill Belichick spilling secrets,
3:48
Speaker 1: has said recently, you can't believe anything you hear until
3:52
Speaker 1: you are twelve hours away from the draft. We are
3:56
Speaker 1: squarely in that window. What we are hearing now. Maybe
4:01
Speaker 1: a smokescreen, but more than likely probably not. As a reminder,
4:06
Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three six five.
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Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary. That's why you
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Speaker 1: three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older and
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Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, and North Carolina,
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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia. We're eighteen and older in Kentucky.
4:41
Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
4:44
Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions or frictions apply.
4:48
Speaker 1: Don't forget catch every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube.
4:52
Speaker 1: For those on YouTube right now, give us a like
4:54
Speaker 1: and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. Simon I
4:59
Speaker 1: mean rumors about the top of the draft are flying
5:04
Speaker 1: right now. Multiple books reporting that the biggest markets are
5:08
Speaker 1: on who will go number two overall, which I know
5:11
Speaker 1: we're going to talk about one of your bigger bets
5:13
Speaker 1: and total quarterbacks taken in the first round, one of
5:16
Speaker 1: the bets we both like a lot. Before we get
5:20
Speaker 1: to the bets in the markets, let's get too sharp calls.
5:26
Speaker 2: Hello, who's there? I'm talking rain range telephone range. Somebody
5:32
Speaker 2: say it?
5:33
Speaker 1: Maybe what you do man? What do you hear? It
5:36
Speaker 1: felt so good to say it and get into that
5:38
Speaker 1: rhythm again. I miss it.
5:41
Speaker 3: Sharp calls is definitely sharp calls. For three months, It's
5:44
Speaker 3: a lot of sharp calls, a lot of talking, and
5:47
Speaker 3: a lot of guys taking up positions, a lot of
5:49
Speaker 3: people with opinions, and there was really the biggest of
5:52
Speaker 3: I chat honestly this off season with the draft has
5:56
Speaker 3: been the May and Daniels. You're either a Daniels guy
5:58
Speaker 3: at two or you're a guy too, And someone was
6:01
Speaker 3: gonna take a bath because it was just really a
6:03
Speaker 3: matter of opinion where it's like, some people believe May
6:06
Speaker 3: is just as is that funic as Daniels. Some people
6:09
Speaker 3: believe he is higher upside and you know, a bunch
6:13
Speaker 3: of a bunch of opinions, and there was a market
6:15
Speaker 3: to bet on with those opinions. So luckily, as people
6:19
Speaker 3: know of the fans of the show, I was kind
6:22
Speaker 3: of dug in on Daniels. I gave out Daniels in February.
6:25
Speaker 3: You know, we did a show the Super Bowl recap.
6:28
Speaker 3: The next week, I think it was the last week
6:29
Speaker 3: of February. We talked a little about about draft futures,
6:32
Speaker 3: and I gave out Daniels at plus one fifty.
6:35
Speaker 1: Who.
6:36
Speaker 3: My whole view of it was I didn't think May
6:38
Speaker 3: deserved to be a favorite at that time. And again
6:41
Speaker 3: this was with very little conversation with people the season
6:43
Speaker 3: that just ended, and most professionals I talked to, who
6:47
Speaker 3: you know, they're like me. They start watching film December
6:49
Speaker 3: January start forming opinions on these quarterbacks. Especially A lot
6:53
Speaker 3: of them did love May because they loved him from
6:55
Speaker 3: the previous season, so they were kind of duging on.
6:57
Speaker 3: There were like, well, I think he deserves to be
6:58
Speaker 3: that pick. And then there's a people like me that
7:01
Speaker 3: you know, kind of viewed it as I don't really
7:04
Speaker 3: love acc quarterbacks.
7:05
Speaker 2: I know a lot of NFL scouts and gms that.
7:07
Speaker 3: Feel the same way about ACC quarterbacks, Like, if you
7:10
Speaker 3: want to be drafted at the ACC, you have to
7:12
Speaker 3: be really incredible, like you got to be Deshaun Wattson,
7:17
Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence. You have to be such a high level
7:19
Speaker 3: caliber Jamis Winston and I don't ever.
7:22
Speaker 2: I never felt that way with Drake Man. I know
7:24
Speaker 2: a lot of scouts. I didn't either.
7:25
Speaker 3: So the Daniels, the Daniels, may Thing, Chad, You'd be
7:29
Speaker 3: shocked about it. It dominated my life for about three months,
7:32
Speaker 3: and I told Man Mitchell where I got. I got
7:37
Speaker 3: crushed last year's people know if fans is the show
7:38
Speaker 3: that Bruce Young thing really crushed me like I always
7:41
Speaker 3: hurt for about a month on that because not only
7:44
Speaker 3: did I lose a ton of money, I lost people
7:46
Speaker 3: money on the show. I lost, I mean big time
7:48
Speaker 3: money for clients like that. That killed me because I
7:51
Speaker 3: had never never believed that an ownership would take an
7:55
Speaker 3: under six foot quarterback for the number one pick and
7:57
Speaker 3: set their franchise back five to ten years. Carolina did it.
8:01
Speaker 3: Like I didn't know their owner was this crazy guy.
8:03
Speaker 3: I didn't really have a read on their owner, and
8:05
Speaker 3: I missed on that hour. This year, I had confidence
8:07
Speaker 3: in not that I know Josh Harris and the ownership
8:10
Speaker 3: that well of Washington, but I've seen what he does
8:13
Speaker 3: with the six years, and he's very much take a
8:15
Speaker 3: step back let their front office do all the moves.
8:18
Speaker 2: So I knew right there that the football guys.
8:20
Speaker 3: Would be making this decision for Washington, And to me
8:22
Speaker 3: that was a big deal trying to figure out this
8:25
Speaker 3: Daniels in May thing, because whoever they loved, it wouldn't
8:29
Speaker 3: be because of outside reasons, right, It's going to be
8:31
Speaker 3: because of football things. So you know Daniels is now
8:35
Speaker 3: minus a thousand in most books. That's a big deal
8:38
Speaker 3: to me and fans of the show because not only
8:40
Speaker 3: did I give it on the show, I give it
8:41
Speaker 3: on the app as well. It was the only bat
8:43
Speaker 3: I gave out for the draft on the app. I
8:44
Speaker 3: think I did whatever two units or whatever on it,
8:48
Speaker 3: but again enough to say, go bet this thing. And
8:52
Speaker 3: you know, the past week, Chad knows, Daniels odds came
8:55
Speaker 3: down to even. At one point him and May were
8:56
Speaker 3: even to be the number two pick after a crazy week,
9:00
Speaker 3: and I told Man Mitchell, I got a phone call
9:02
Speaker 3: that I was basically like I was summoned to Vegas.
9:05
Speaker 3: I was gonna have to fly out there. What was
9:07
Speaker 3: about to happen, which what I thought may was about
9:09
Speaker 3: to be minus three hundred being number two pick. I
9:12
Speaker 3: was about to be in deep shit, like this was
9:14
Speaker 3: about to be back to back years of me giving
9:16
Speaker 3: out an information that was dead wrong if Daniels was
9:20
Speaker 3: not the number two pick. So yeah, awful weekend from
9:23
Speaker 3: each other. I did not sleep, was scared that I
9:26
Speaker 3: was got to make a flight to Vegas and get
9:28
Speaker 3: not just yelled at, but shoot out, because it's like,
9:31
Speaker 3: what the hell is going on with you? You're supposed to
9:33
Speaker 3: know what these these gms are gonna do with these quarterbacks.
9:36
Speaker 3: And I still stand by last year, and I think
9:38
Speaker 3: fans of the show agree with me. Like I was
9:41
Speaker 3: duging on CJ. Anthony Richardson over Bryce Young didn't work out.
9:44
Speaker 3: I lost money on it, but it turned out I
9:46
Speaker 3: was on the right path.
9:48
Speaker 2: I feel the same amount of confidence here.
9:50
Speaker 3: Yes, Drake may might be the better prospect, you know,
9:52
Speaker 3: who knows what happens in the future, but I believe
9:55
Speaker 3: right now Daniels is the better prospect and he deserves
9:58
Speaker 3: to be the number two pick, and I put money
9:59
Speaker 3: behind and it's going to work out for me. And
10:03
Speaker 3: that was the sharp cause, like, I'm so happy I
10:05
Speaker 3: didn't I didn't give it out the Drake May because
10:08
Speaker 3: I felt a lot of pressure and a lot of
10:09
Speaker 3: outside noise about Drake May for the last two to
10:12
Speaker 3: three months, and on this show, I stuck with the
10:15
Speaker 3: Daniels pick, and I'm hoping people did bet it because
10:19
Speaker 3: now it is minus a thousand. But if we want
10:22
Speaker 3: to get to the other parts of the draft, which
10:23
Speaker 3: I know people care about, the new drama is the quarterbacks,
10:27
Speaker 3: right the Drake hold on.
10:29
Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on, hold on one thing. It's freaking
10:35
Speaker 1: hard to sit with these decisions for two to three months.
10:39
Speaker 1: It's so different than bet in the NFL season, where
10:43
Speaker 1: it's almost like forty eight seventy two ninety six hours
10:47
Speaker 1: and it's over, right.
10:49
Speaker 2: It's abandoned.
10:49
Speaker 3: You lose, you move on, So lose, yeah, and you
10:52
Speaker 3: move on to the next week.
10:53
Speaker 1: The Daniels thing has been fascinating and it has moved aggressively.
10:57
Speaker 1: There was that little dip recently. He is now at
11:01
Speaker 1: minus one thousand, as you say today, Right now, there
11:07
Speaker 1: is a ton of news about trades in the top
11:12
Speaker 1: ten of the draft. Will the Vikings move into the
11:16
Speaker 1: fifth spot? Will the Vikings move into the third spot?
11:19
Speaker 1: Are they targeting JJ McCarthy, Are they targeting Drake May?
11:24
Speaker 1: That seems to be where there's some real excitement. Nobody
11:30
Speaker 1: really knows, but there has been a lot of smoke
11:34
Speaker 1: the last forty eight hours about what the Vikings are
11:39
Speaker 1: going to do, and they seem to be the key
11:42
Speaker 1: driver in terms of moving positions and then who they
11:47
Speaker 1: will take based on that move for how so many
11:52
Speaker 1: bets are going to play out when it comes to
11:55
Speaker 1: the quarterback position, and it's all pivoting around Drake May
11:59
Speaker 1: and JJ.
12:00
Speaker 3: McCarthy and the peggyback on the sharp calls, and plenty
12:04
Speaker 3: of guys who just do not like Drake May. They
12:06
Speaker 3: think he's gonna drop and the Patriots are gonna go
12:08
Speaker 3: jj A the third pick.
12:10
Speaker 2: I can't get behind it. I just I can't.
12:14
Speaker 3: I can't imagine New England not taking a quarterback there.
12:16
Speaker 3: But like I said, I don't know anything about this
12:19
Speaker 3: general manager.
12:20
Speaker 2: He is new to the game.
12:22
Speaker 3: Everything I've heard is that Kraft is taking a step
12:25
Speaker 3: back and he is letting him run this draft. He's
12:27
Speaker 3: not given any type of opinions, neither of his craft sons.
12:30
Speaker 3: I don't know how much I believe that either, because
12:32
Speaker 3: I don't.
12:32
Speaker 1: I'm here, by the way, I'm hearing different, right, and.
12:35
Speaker 3: That's what I mean, Like, I don't know how much
12:37
Speaker 3: I believe it. So my viewed of it is Kraft
12:40
Speaker 3: is an old man. He not that he is bitter
12:44
Speaker 3: in any way, but that documentary all of it was
12:47
Speaker 3: just his tone, everything about his view of Belichick and Brady,
12:50
Speaker 3: all of it is a little weird to me. And
12:53
Speaker 3: I think he wants a quarterback. I just can't see
12:55
Speaker 3: this man trading out of this position. So in my opinion,
12:58
Speaker 3: again I've heard tons of different rumors, is they do
13:02
Speaker 3: take Drake at three? And so for me, what is
13:05
Speaker 3: my bet going to be?
13:06
Speaker 2: Then?
13:06
Speaker 3: Like other professionals I talked to, is a quarterback is
13:10
Speaker 3: going to fall?
13:11
Speaker 2: Is that going to be Jj? Is it going to
13:12
Speaker 2: be Drake?
13:13
Speaker 3: I'm not sure, but one of them is going to
13:15
Speaker 3: So to me, my position I've taken is on JJ
13:18
Speaker 3: McCarthy falling, just because a lot of the NFO I've
13:21
Speaker 3: heard is just stupid, Like a lot of stuff I
13:23
Speaker 3: read and heard is people are like, well, the Chargers,
13:26
Speaker 3: Harball is gonna do him a solid and give They're
13:29
Speaker 3: gonna make a trade with the Vikings so he can
13:31
Speaker 3: go to a great coach.
13:32
Speaker 2: And do you think they honestly care? People?
13:35
Speaker 3: Do you think our ball cares what happens to the
13:37
Speaker 3: s guy? Or I saw another rumor that they're gonna
13:40
Speaker 3: trade Herbert and take an eighty five million dollars dead
13:44
Speaker 3: cap hit to draft JJ in the fifth pick, or
13:47
Speaker 3: do whatever and trade away Herbert, another really dumb clickbait rumor.
13:52
Speaker 3: It's just that's that's career suicide by the general manager
13:56
Speaker 3: to do that kind of move. It's like JJ is
13:59
Speaker 3: not a sure thing in any way, neither is Herbert,
14:02
Speaker 3: but we know Herbert's upside. Like I don't think any
14:05
Speaker 3: of these guys in this class yet I put in
14:06
Speaker 3: the same level as Herbert, right, so it's right away,
14:09
Speaker 3: it's just a weird, weird.
14:10
Speaker 2: Move and everything to make. So my view of.
14:13
Speaker 3: It is, yeah, the professionals, a lot of people I
14:15
Speaker 3: talk to, they've taken heavy positions on JJ falling and
14:19
Speaker 3: then JJ being the number two and three pick because
14:22
Speaker 3: they've obviously bet it way earlier than we are at now,
14:26
Speaker 3: so they have a different position than obviously we're talking
14:28
Speaker 3: right now. So my view of it is, if you
14:30
Speaker 3: have zero bets, if you have nothing invested in this,
14:33
Speaker 3: I do. I like the JJ over five and a
14:35
Speaker 3: half and it's draft position chat and it is plus
14:37
Speaker 3: one hundred. It's like it's good value, it's fair value.
14:40
Speaker 3: And it's really all about New England takes Drake May
14:45
Speaker 3: what we think Arizona's going to do, which is they
14:47
Speaker 3: take Harris and then I picked the Chargers. Yeah, I
14:52
Speaker 3: just again, the Chargers could make that trade with the Vikings.
14:56
Speaker 3: Why not drop back at two first round picks and
14:58
Speaker 3: let them move up to get him.
15:00
Speaker 2: But at the same time, why wouldn't.
15:02
Speaker 3: You get the best offense linean you could possibly get,
15:05
Speaker 3: or why would you not take you know, someone's arguing
15:09
Speaker 3: one of the best receivers in football. You guys don't
15:11
Speaker 3: have a receiver right now on this team, like the
15:13
Speaker 3: Chargers have major needs. So I agree, I think they
15:17
Speaker 3: should trade back, but I don't think it's to do
15:18
Speaker 3: a team of favor. I don't think it's horrid aball
15:20
Speaker 3: doing a favor for an ex quarterback. So yeah, for
15:23
Speaker 3: right now, I think the JJ hipes reached a boiling
15:27
Speaker 3: point shot it's gone to too much where I think
15:30
Speaker 3: at pick seven, it makes more sense if a team
15:33
Speaker 3: trades up with Tennessee and takes him there but pick ten,
15:37
Speaker 3: pick eleven, team's trading up to take JJ there, but
15:40
Speaker 3: him being a top five pick. I just I can't,
15:43
Speaker 3: even though I know the QB position has a huge,
15:46
Speaker 3: you know value graded to a chat, I just I
15:48
Speaker 3: can't do it. I can't put him in my top five.
15:51
Speaker 3: So at plus one hundred and plenty of pros like
15:54
Speaker 3: this bet. They've taken this.
15:55
Speaker 2: Bet over five and a half for JJ McCarthy draft position.
15:59
Speaker 1: He's US three fifty at bet three six five to
16:01
Speaker 1: go number five. Exactly. What's interesting is clear consensus. Somebody
16:08
Speaker 1: thinks he's Somebody thinks somebody is trading up YEP to
16:11
Speaker 1: get JJ McCarthy because he's minus nine hundred to go
16:16
Speaker 1: in the top ten, which is an absurd number. If
16:20
Speaker 1: you look at the way the draft positions are, there's
16:25
Speaker 1: not enough teams that have that have signaled they will
16:29
Speaker 1: go a quarterback outside of the ones we've talked about,
16:34
Speaker 1: So someone would need to trade up to get to
16:37
Speaker 1: JJ McCarthy for him to be a top ten pick,
16:40
Speaker 1: if he's not at that number five spot with the Chargers,
16:44
Speaker 1: there's gonna have to be uh with the Chargers trading,
16:47
Speaker 1: there's gonna have to be some kind of maneuvering there
16:50
Speaker 1: which makes you feel like you either if you if
16:54
Speaker 1: you feel like JJ McCarthy is a top ten pick,
17:00
Speaker 1: take the JJ McCarthy at plus three point fifty to
17:04
Speaker 1: go number five because he's not likely to go six
17:09
Speaker 1: to ten and he's not likely to go one to three.
17:12
Speaker 1: So the plus three fifty feels like it's pretty good
17:15
Speaker 1: value at five based on the way mocks or signaling
17:19
Speaker 1: things what the news is saying.
17:22
Speaker 3: If the mystery, I mean, think about your bearsteam trade
17:25
Speaker 3: it for fields, Chad, do you remember when you got
17:26
Speaker 3: to sharded for justin fields? What pick you went from
17:28
Speaker 3: to get the fields? Think of everything you are to
17:30
Speaker 3: get up. I think you guys will what pick eleven?
17:32
Speaker 3: Was it theeter Field's at and he was the fourth quarterback? Yeah,
17:35
Speaker 3: you were to give up a bunch of stuff just
17:37
Speaker 3: to get to that spot. So that's that's why I'm
17:39
Speaker 3: so skeptical of this whole JJ thing, where it's like guys.
17:43
Speaker 3: Teams are just teams hold you to a fire, like
17:46
Speaker 3: they're like, no, if you want to get up here,
17:48
Speaker 3: you're gonna have to pay a lot. Are you really
17:50
Speaker 3: willing to pay that much for the fourth quarterback in
17:53
Speaker 3: this draft? So previous history, Like what you're talking about here, Chad,
17:58
Speaker 3: Usually they don't. Usually these guys do drop down a
18:01
Speaker 3: little bit. So yeah, to me, the value what Chad
18:04
Speaker 3: just talk about? The value is there at this point
18:06
Speaker 3: because what a Chad.
18:06
Speaker 2: Is talk about?
18:07
Speaker 3: People have just mocked JJ up there without talking about
18:10
Speaker 3: real value because it's like in real life, it's really
18:14
Speaker 3: hard to get into that top five picks, like to
18:16
Speaker 3: move enough assets to get up there.
18:19
Speaker 2: Why not wait?
18:20
Speaker 3: Like the again, we all wish we could get Josh
18:25
Speaker 3: Allen's and the mahomes, But we see all the time,
18:28
Speaker 3: if you are these teams are patient, and that dude
18:30
Speaker 3: trade up to the end to the top you know,
18:32
Speaker 3: ten eleven, twelve spot or just wait for that player
18:35
Speaker 3: to follow to them. You know, usually it's better for
18:38
Speaker 3: them long term because they're not giving up so many
18:39
Speaker 3: assets go up and get the guys. So that's my
18:42
Speaker 3: pushback on people being like what does this guy know
18:45
Speaker 3: all these people are mocking it.
18:47
Speaker 2: Chad's right. The market's saying to you that he is
18:49
Speaker 2: going to be a top five pick. JJ. I'm telling you,
18:51
Speaker 2: I believe there's good value there. It's it's good.
18:54
Speaker 3: On paper, but in actuality, it's really expensive to get
18:57
Speaker 3: into that position, especially for a team that everyone's saying
19:00
Speaker 3: is going to do it in Minnesota. It's like I
19:02
Speaker 3: never believed for a second Minnesota's to be the one
19:04
Speaker 3: the trap number three with New England. Chad's making me
19:06
Speaker 3: feel a little better now because I know he's got
19:08
Speaker 3: good sources that really doesn't leave that leaves on one
19:12
Speaker 3: option in the Chargers, and I just it feels like
19:16
Speaker 3: it's a lot for them to move up and get
19:17
Speaker 3: that fifth spot from the Chargers.
19:20
Speaker 1: What we want to give people a Simon says, and
19:24
Speaker 1: we want to give people an exec decision. I know
19:27
Speaker 1: what my EXAC decision is. It's not quarterback related, Okay,
19:33
Speaker 1: I don't know if I don't know if JJ McCarthy
19:35
Speaker 1: over five and a half at plus one hundred plus
19:38
Speaker 1: one ten is decision. But there's another quarterback, like another
19:44
Speaker 1: quarterback centric bet, which is five and a half qbs
19:52
Speaker 1: taken in round one at over five and a half
19:56
Speaker 1: taken around one at plus two one hundred. So the
20:03
Speaker 1: line on this is four and a half with the
20:06
Speaker 1: over at about minus three ninety and the under at
20:08
Speaker 1: plus two seventy. The bets are on the under, the
20:11
Speaker 1: money is on the over. So we've got a little
20:15
Speaker 1: bit of a Joe Pro situation here. To me, the
20:22
Speaker 1: key player in this bet, who is also one of
20:25
Speaker 1: my favorite players in the draft, Michael Pennix Junior. And
20:28
Speaker 1: we had Johnny Manziel on the show the other day
20:32
Speaker 1: and he did Franchise Mode with Kurt Banker, former Packers quarterback,
20:37
Speaker 1: and they broke down a lot of the quarterbacks, the
20:40
Speaker 1: six quarterbacks in this draft that people think could go
20:42
Speaker 1: number one or at least the top six, and he
20:46
Speaker 1: had Pennix as his second rated quarterback, right after Kayleb
20:50
Speaker 1: Williams above, Drake May, above Jayden Daniels, above JJ McCarthy.
20:54
Speaker 1: His round one odds have moved from plus one twenty
20:57
Speaker 1: to minus three fifty. Is this is five and a
21:00
Speaker 1: half qbs over five and a half qbs taking around
21:04
Speaker 1: one at plus two hundred. You're Simon says.
21:08
Speaker 2: Let's make it.
21:09
Speaker 1: Simon says, Simon says five and a half qbs over
21:14
Speaker 1: in round one plus two hundred.
21:17
Speaker 2: When Simon says do it, we do what Sion.
21:20
Speaker 1: Says, give me your logic.
21:23
Speaker 3: I just want to start off by saying, though that
21:25
Speaker 3: the future goat the man that never misses. Brandon Anderson
21:29
Speaker 3: is on the opposite side of this, so like we
21:32
Speaker 3: talk in our slack group, and he he loves the under,
21:36
Speaker 3: I believe four and a half. Right, whatever you said,
21:38
Speaker 3: it was pluse plus two ninety. If you've been listening
21:41
Speaker 3: to the show me and Chad, I've been talking about
21:43
Speaker 3: taking the over four and a half and it was
21:44
Speaker 3: at minus two hundred. I've been talking this for over
21:46
Speaker 3: a month about taking this number, and now it's up
21:49
Speaker 3: to minus four hundred. So if you missed that boat,
21:52
Speaker 3: join me on this. Simon says better over five and
21:54
Speaker 3: a half. And at some some books, I won't say
21:56
Speaker 3: you that's the major book. So obviously it's well, there'll
21:59
Speaker 3: be us six quarterbacks taken in the first round, so
22:02
Speaker 3: all you need is to land on six. It's it
22:04
Speaker 3: just frame, it's framed differently. It's same as five and
22:06
Speaker 3: a half. People don't overthink it. You don't need seven
22:09
Speaker 3: quarterbacks in the first round. Just you need we all
22:11
Speaker 3: need six.
22:11
Speaker 2: So the view of.
22:13
Speaker 3: It here is if the rumors are true, okay, that
22:16
Speaker 3: the Vikings love JJ, JJ goes to the Vikings, and
22:20
Speaker 3: then we have the Raiders and Denver apparently both winning quarterbacks.
22:25
Speaker 3: Like this is the not not a kept secret at
22:29
Speaker 3: all in NFL circles. It is out there and it's
22:31
Speaker 3: been out there that you can look on paper. Denver
22:35
Speaker 3: is one of the worst QB rooms in all football.
22:38
Speaker 3: From my standpoint, I've already given my opinion on Denver.
22:41
Speaker 3: I know people don't want to hear this, but you
22:43
Speaker 3: have Sean Payton. You tank this season, like who why
22:46
Speaker 3: would you want the fifth best quarterback in this draft?
22:48
Speaker 3: Just you tank this season. You can get the number
22:51
Speaker 3: one quarterback next year. It could be Sanders whoever. I
22:54
Speaker 3: just feel like that's the better pathway Denver, because they're
22:57
Speaker 3: banking again the fifth best quarterback or six best quarterback
23:00
Speaker 3: in this draft that's going to.
23:01
Speaker 2: Take down Patrick Mahomes.
23:03
Speaker 3: It doesn't. It just doesn't make sense to me. You're
23:06
Speaker 3: playing the eyes don't really work for me. So that's
23:09
Speaker 3: just from my standpoint, But I do think it's an
23:10
Speaker 3: ego thing with Sean Payton. He thinks he's a QB whisper. Okay, guys,
23:15
Speaker 3: you respect an industry. They've been mocking Denver to take
23:17
Speaker 3: a quarterback. They've been mocking the Raiders to take a quarterback.
23:20
Speaker 3: I am also hearing the Rams are in the market
23:23
Speaker 3: to go into the first round and take a Panix
23:26
Speaker 3: or a Bonnicks or a different type of quarterback if
23:28
Speaker 3: they fall in this draft. So yeah, like we love
23:32
Speaker 3: the over four and a half a minus two hundred.
23:34
Speaker 3: Now it's a minus four hundred. I don't want people
23:36
Speaker 3: to be betting that. I just don't want you to
23:38
Speaker 3: be doing it because it it makes me feel like
23:39
Speaker 3: a shit because I have better odds and if we lose,
23:42
Speaker 3: it's not gonna hurt me as much as if you're
23:43
Speaker 3: betting four hundred to win one hundred. It's like, I
23:45
Speaker 3: hate those kind of bets, honestly. So if we're looking value,
23:50
Speaker 3: hearing a fun bet, either ride with Brandon Anderson take
23:54
Speaker 3: the under four and a half, or you're gonna ride
23:58
Speaker 3: with me. Think team's panic? They they again, QB is
24:02
Speaker 3: valued are different? Is value differently? It just is in
24:05
Speaker 3: the NFL. It really is so I get it, Bonix,
24:09
Speaker 3: you don't think you should be a first round pick.
24:11
Speaker 3: About every scout anyone I talk to agrees with you,
24:13
Speaker 3: people like we all agree. But the NFL teams just
24:18
Speaker 3: want to hit on a guy, and it's like it's
24:20
Speaker 3: the thing with It's like party. It's like you just
24:22
Speaker 3: got to get these guys in the building because you
24:25
Speaker 3: don't know how people are going to translate from college
24:27
Speaker 3: to this. So that's why quarterback will always be over
24:29
Speaker 3: valued in the NFL. So yeah, Simon says, over five
24:33
Speaker 3: and a half quarterbacks, take and give it to me
24:35
Speaker 3: plus what is it, plus one thirty or I mean
24:38
Speaker 3: plus one hundred plus plus two hundred. It's good value
24:42
Speaker 3: on a bet that all we need is a team
24:44
Speaker 3: to get desperate trade back into the first round at
24:46
Speaker 3: the end of the draft.
24:47
Speaker 1: Well, look, there's there are some scenarios where it plays out, right,
24:50
Speaker 1: And you mentioned Minnesota, you mentioned Denver, you mentioned the Raiders.
24:54
Speaker 1: Don't forget the Giants. Don't Giants talks right, like the
24:58
Speaker 1: Giants can walk away.
25:00
Speaker 2: Alanta's in the camp for jj.
25:02
Speaker 1: At Atlanta's in the camp for Pennix. Yeah, like Pennix
25:07
Speaker 1: is the key here. But again, it comes down to
25:11
Speaker 1: the Patriots and what are they doing in three Because
25:13
Speaker 1: there was another rumor this morning I think it was
25:16
Speaker 1: Diana Russini at the Athletic speculating the Patriots could trade
25:20
Speaker 1: down and then trade back into the lafirst round to
25:24
Speaker 1: grab a quarterback at the end of the first round,
25:26
Speaker 1: So which.
25:26
Speaker 3: Again I love for them because whoever they take, I
25:29
Speaker 3: do think they planned on City for a year.
25:30
Speaker 2: They brought in Brussette.
25:32
Speaker 3: Again, everyone's making plans, right, It's like a week into
25:36
Speaker 3: the camp they could be like, Okay, this guy is
25:38
Speaker 3: a thousand times better than Brssett.
25:40
Speaker 2: That could easily change. But that to me is the
25:43
Speaker 2: move for them.
25:43
Speaker 3: What Chad just talked about it, it's like if they
25:45
Speaker 3: can get more assets and trade down, if they like
25:47
Speaker 3: JJ more than Drake and they know they can move
25:49
Speaker 3: down and take him at whatever pick ten or eleven,
25:52
Speaker 3: I totally agree with you, Chad. I think that would
25:55
Speaker 3: be the better move for the Patriots. And like you
25:57
Speaker 3: just mentioned all these teams, there's a couple of teams
25:59
Speaker 3: and even say it's like there's so many teams in
26:01
Speaker 3: the market for quarterback just because it's all about the money.
26:04
Speaker 3: Like if you can get out a guy that hits
26:06
Speaker 3: like this in a first round, you get him for
26:08
Speaker 3: five years. The pal scale, I mean it just went
26:10
Speaker 3: up thirty million, so the money just keeps going up.
26:15
Speaker 3: These rookie quarterbacks hitting has never mattered more. And that's
26:19
Speaker 3: why I like again, I mean, me and Chigar have
26:20
Speaker 3: the whole off season talk about the Bears. If the
26:23
Speaker 3: Bears hit on this on Williams, It's like all the assets,
26:26
Speaker 3: all the money, they have, so much there to surround
26:30
Speaker 3: this kid with. It's so rare that the ninth or
26:32
Speaker 3: tenth worst team has a number one pick, especially a
26:34
Speaker 3: generational of talent. So yeah, this is a really fun
26:38
Speaker 3: QB class.
26:39
Speaker 1: The enthusiasm in Chicago is so irrational like this always.
26:47
Speaker 3: Though guys were irrational with Mitch Trubisky, let alone Williams.
26:50
Speaker 1: So yeah, and it's totally true. But like you know,
26:54
Speaker 1: I had a buddy text to me from Chicago the
26:57
Speaker 1: other day like about the greatness of what's about to happen.
27:02
Speaker 1: I'm like, do not fucking mush this right now. We
27:07
Speaker 1: are not going to see something you ownership ten Williams.
27:12
Speaker 1: I said, We're not mushing this until Kayleb Williams has
27:14
Speaker 1: more than four thousand passing yards. Wind's Rookie of the
27:16
Speaker 1: Year in a super Bowl in this first season in
27:19
Speaker 1: the NFL. That anything last and I all feel like
27:23
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27:26
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Speaker 1: your subscription is active. Yes, there are a lot of
28:32
Speaker 1: teams that need quarterbacks right now, and there is so
28:36
Speaker 1: much conversation around Michael Pendix Junior and where he will go.
28:42
Speaker 1: It's been a great story. He ran that forty on
28:45
Speaker 1: his pro day that was much faster than people expected.
28:48
Speaker 1: By the way, don't forget he plays at Washington in Seattle.
28:51
Speaker 1: Now his offensive coordinator is now the offensive coordinator for
28:56
Speaker 1: the Seattle Seahawks, so there are sort of enough signals
29:01
Speaker 1: to indicate he could be the folk from that gets
29:05
Speaker 1: this to go from four and a half to five.
29:07
Speaker 1: And then you just need one more group that loves
29:08
Speaker 1: bo Nicks to come in into the back of the
29:14
Speaker 1: into the back of the first round. So very very
29:18
Speaker 1: interesting moves there. Simon, can you name the fastest growing
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30:12
Speaker 1: we have committed assignment says to over five and a
30:17
Speaker 1: half quarterbacks taken in the first round. When we were
30:22
Speaker 1: slacking this morning, you had another bet, and we're going
30:25
Speaker 1: to get to the exact decision. We're going to anchor.
30:28
Speaker 1: We're going to anchor the podcast with the exact decision.
30:31
Speaker 1: You had a bet that I thought was really interesting.
30:34
Speaker 1: That speaks to the cast. Six plus trades in round
30:39
Speaker 1: one at plus one thirty. We've highlighted already some of
30:44
Speaker 1: these trades that we've been talking about. What are the
30:46
Speaker 1: Viking's going to do? What are the Patriots going to do?
30:49
Speaker 1: What are the Chargers going to do? Right? How did
30:52
Speaker 1: you land on this number.
30:55
Speaker 3: I love this number for a bunch of reason. The biggest
30:57
Speaker 3: one is because of what you just mentioned. It's the
30:59
Speaker 3: QB draw if there's a lot of QB drama and
31:01
Speaker 3: a lot of moving pieces. I love making these kind
31:04
Speaker 3: of bets. And it's also fun. Who doesn't want trades?
31:07
Speaker 3: I want trades and makes the draft fun. Like, uh,
31:11
Speaker 3: you know, all the insiders keep talking about the record
31:14
Speaker 3: breaking amount of trades that might be happening in this
31:16
Speaker 3: first round. So you know the fact that well respected
31:21
Speaker 3: guys like Adam Schefter or you know, Peter Schreer are
31:26
Speaker 3: saying that they think this might be the most trades ever.
31:29
Speaker 3: I love it like it's it's a bet I like
31:32
Speaker 3: to make. So yeah, I would love to make star
31:34
Speaker 3: Fox whole bet just because you know, a lot of
31:38
Speaker 3: people don't think there's gonna be that many trades. They
31:41
Speaker 3: think that this is just all in the media hype.
31:43
Speaker 3: But I agree with what you're New England take. Like,
31:45
Speaker 3: if Newland does make that trade out of three to
31:48
Speaker 3: trade down because they want a different quarterback, this is
31:51
Speaker 3: a guarantee to hit. Like I if a move happens
31:54
Speaker 3: that early, the trickle down is going to be insane
31:56
Speaker 3: because they could be moving down to move back up
31:59
Speaker 3: and a bunch of different things could happen like that.
32:01
Speaker 2: So I like this number.
32:03
Speaker 3: I think it's too low, and I think they hung
32:05
Speaker 3: at this load just because they weren't expecting that many
32:08
Speaker 3: trades when they opened this about a month ago, and
32:10
Speaker 3: they've just been hit with so much. I mean, you know,
32:14
Speaker 3: like man Mitchell just told us it opened up plus
32:16
Speaker 3: two hundred, it's now down to plus one thirty. Like
32:19
Speaker 3: that's a heavy movement. So I think the books I
32:22
Speaker 3: kind of got stuck here where it's like, I don't
32:24
Speaker 3: think they expected that much movement because they thought the
32:29
Speaker 3: top of the draft was gonna go pretty, you know,
32:31
Speaker 3: pretty boring by the books. And you know, the last
32:34
Speaker 3: couple of weeks you've gotten closer here. The rumor mill
32:36
Speaker 3: has really started where it's like even the Eagles apparently
32:39
Speaker 3: want to trade up to get an offensive lineman when
32:41
Speaker 3: these top two offensive linemen. I even saw a thing
32:45
Speaker 3: about the Jets if they could, they want to somehow
32:49
Speaker 3: go from pick eleven to the top ten just because
32:51
Speaker 3: they want to get a receiver because they're worried the
32:53
Speaker 3: Bears are going to take that third receiver at the
32:56
Speaker 3: pick nine. So the Bears happy to swap a pick
33:00
Speaker 3: right there with the Jets to drop down and take
33:02
Speaker 3: either offensive linement or rocked hours would that pick eleven?
33:06
Speaker 3: Tons of people have mocked and talked about that. So yeah,
33:10
Speaker 3: Chad for Fox, So I love this bet. It's just
33:13
Speaker 3: a fun bet. And you know me, anything at a
33:15
Speaker 3: plus one thirty or bet like plus one twenty or better,
33:18
Speaker 3: I'm a sucker for those if I'm not paying the
33:19
Speaker 3: juice for the big I love those kind of moves.
33:24
Speaker 1: Right now, Tito, super producer Tito is slacking US Patriots, Chargers,
33:31
Speaker 1: and Cardinals, three of the top ten that all have
33:35
Speaker 1: been rumored to trade. So that's like that three spot.
33:40
Speaker 1: You're right, like, this is what makes betting the draft exciting,
33:44
Speaker 1: that three spot. Dude. There could be absolute fucking chaos tonight.
33:51
Speaker 2: And that's what we like the bettle. We like the
33:52
Speaker 2: bet on chaos.
33:53
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that, you know, That's one of the
33:55
Speaker 1: things I want to ask you about. Like, chaos is
33:58
Speaker 1: great for a better in this scenario because everyone has
34:04
Speaker 1: a plan is Mike Tyson likes to say, until they
34:07
Speaker 1: get punched in the face and having someone trade out
34:11
Speaker 1: of their position to a rival in the draft in
34:16
Speaker 1: your division into a position higher than you. This is
34:21
Speaker 1: when gms make their money. Can they keep their cool?
34:24
Speaker 1: Can they see the board as it exists? Can they
34:27
Speaker 1: see the board as it's going to exist? Can they
34:30
Speaker 1: think about how they're going to move the chess pieces
34:32
Speaker 1: and what they need and not chase shiny objects? Right?
34:36
Speaker 1: We talk about this all the time, even like when
34:39
Speaker 1: deciding what content strategies we want to chase, right, and
34:46
Speaker 1: like who do we want to hire? And how do
34:48
Speaker 1: you not overspend and how do you not overinvest on
34:50
Speaker 1: a trend? Like gms are not immune to this stuff.
34:53
Speaker 1: They are going to freak out in the Patriots trade
34:56
Speaker 1: out at number three, or of Howie Roseman gets the
35:00
Speaker 1: the Eagles into the top ten, Like people are going
35:03
Speaker 1: to be losing their shit and trading like crazy, Oh
35:06
Speaker 1: my god, it's so good.
35:07
Speaker 3: And GM's are petty like speaking about how he these
35:11
Speaker 3: past five years?
35:12
Speaker 2: So Dallas Godder who if you don't know who he is,
35:15
Speaker 2: he's the Egles tight end the Cowboys.
35:17
Speaker 3: Jason Winn had just retired and it was rumored that
35:20
Speaker 3: he really wanted to go to Dallas and Dallas Cowboys
35:21
Speaker 3: wanted Dallas Goddard. Howie Roseman traded up a pick before
35:25
Speaker 3: them took Dallas Goddard. Two seasons later, the Giants are
35:30
Speaker 3: sitting there at their pick eleven. Chad knows this, Who
35:34
Speaker 3: did they want Davonte Smith? What do the Eagles do?
35:37
Speaker 3: They traded up to the tenth pick or I get
35:39
Speaker 3: I think they I forget what they exactly what they did,
35:41
Speaker 3: but they basically maneuvered inhead of.
35:43
Speaker 2: The Giants and took Devonte Smith, like just.
35:46
Speaker 3: Again trading in front of a divisional rival because they
35:48
Speaker 3: had gotten info that that's where they're gonna take. And
35:51
Speaker 3: obviously it's worked out from so Chad's right, like different
35:54
Speaker 3: teams will make different moves to get into the first
35:56
Speaker 3: round because they're trying to either block other teams or
35:58
Speaker 3: just they're scared that guys be gone. So yeah, to me,
36:02
Speaker 3: this number is way way too low. I thought it
36:05
Speaker 3: would be closer to seven.
36:06
Speaker 2: Seven and a half.
36:08
Speaker 1: Another bet that we've discussed and is Joe All over
36:15
Speaker 1: seven and a half. Joe All one of the best
36:16
Speaker 1: offensive linemen greater in the draft over seven and a
36:19
Speaker 1: half at plus three hundred. I was surprised this number
36:23
Speaker 1: was as high as it was because I think the
36:26
Speaker 1: Chargers at five are probably a great landing spot for him.
36:31
Speaker 1: So if you're betting this, which you like this, you're
36:34
Speaker 1: basically also betting it correlates right, because you're then betting
36:39
Speaker 1: that the Chargers trade out of that position potentially to
36:42
Speaker 1: a team that needs a quarterback, which means that the
36:45
Speaker 1: next couple teams are not likely to draft Joe All
36:48
Speaker 1: because they need different positions. So you're betting on Joe
36:51
Speaker 1: All potentially going to someone like the Bears. Is that
36:53
Speaker 1: the logic here.
36:55
Speaker 2: A little bit?
36:57
Speaker 3: The big fear for him, The reason at seven and
36:58
Speaker 3: a half is Tennessee sitting in the seventh spot. So
37:02
Speaker 3: most professionals I've talked to, especially the last two weeks,
37:06
Speaker 3: their view of the Chargers where the Chargers are either
37:08
Speaker 3: going to trade out or they were going to go defense.
37:12
Speaker 3: And most people are like, no, Chargers are going Joe
37:15
Speaker 3: allt like, this is what har Ball does, right.
37:18
Speaker 2: He builds the.
37:19
Speaker 3: Line from what I've heard, they want to go defense.
37:24
Speaker 3: And we've seen the market move with the first defensive
37:26
Speaker 3: player taken. It's moved towards a guy that has been
37:30
Speaker 3: linked to the Chargers. So you know, at this point,
37:34
Speaker 3: my view of it is again going back to Peter Schrager.
37:37
Speaker 3: I hope he's right. He put out a monock this morning.
37:39
Speaker 3: He's usually pretty tuned in with what's going to happen.
37:43
Speaker 3: He has Joe Alp falling right, he has Tennessee actually
37:46
Speaker 3: trade now that seventh pick to the Vikings. The Vikings
37:48
Speaker 3: we've been and taking JJ bare So you know, obviously
37:52
Speaker 3: I made this bet way before you put this mockout.
37:55
Speaker 3: But my whole view of the Joe All thing is
37:57
Speaker 3: Joel It has an incredible name right right there, Like
38:00
Speaker 3: that's a first round, top ten pick, Joe Alt.
38:03
Speaker 2: It's simple. He backs it up.
38:05
Speaker 3: If you have not seen him, he's baby faced, but
38:06
Speaker 3: he is incredibly gifted and like in a normal draft
38:11
Speaker 3: without all these quarterbacks, incredible ie receivers, he could be
38:14
Speaker 3: the number one, number two, number three pick. Like he's
38:16
Speaker 3: that talented, that good and once again an incredibly good name,
38:20
Speaker 3: like simple, you can't really beat a Joe Alt name.
38:24
Speaker 2: It's it's truly incredible. But he's got a fall.
38:28
Speaker 3: Like when I look at this draft, this class has
38:31
Speaker 3: a really good depth at offensive line and depth in
38:34
Speaker 3: the first two rounds, not deep like not third, fourth,
38:36
Speaker 3: fifth rounds, but the first two rounds they do have
38:38
Speaker 3: a lot of really.
38:38
Speaker 2: Tafted offensive line.
38:40
Speaker 3: So right there, I felt like this should have been lower,
38:43
Speaker 3: like plus two hundred just because of that.
38:45
Speaker 2: All these teams know that.
38:46
Speaker 3: It's like, if you're the Chargers, why take Joel at
38:50
Speaker 3: number five where you can move back potentially to pick seven,
38:52
Speaker 3: eight or nine and get him there, Like let a
38:55
Speaker 3: team move up and take the quarterback in those high picks.
38:57
Speaker 2: So it's a little bit what you talk about.
38:59
Speaker 3: It is a little bit of a hedge with with
39:02
Speaker 3: JJ right because of what you just talked about. It's like,
39:05
Speaker 3: if he has skipped here at five, I do think
39:08
Speaker 3: he'll fall, but Tennessee then being linked to him, that
39:11
Speaker 3: does make sense at pick seven. So the hope here
39:14
Speaker 3: with this bet is you're basically you're bestly betting on
39:18
Speaker 3: either him not to be the first offensive alignment taken,
39:20
Speaker 3: which could could happen. I mean that would be pretty shocking,
39:24
Speaker 3: or just the fact that all these quarterbacks, these receivers
39:27
Speaker 3: are all going to go ahead of them. It's just
39:29
Speaker 3: going to bump him down just because you do have
39:32
Speaker 3: three really good quarterbacks, three really good receivers, and now
39:35
Speaker 3: you have JJ McCarthy added to it, where it's like,
39:37
Speaker 3: that's that's the drama, that's rumor, real chills, Chad. So yeah,
39:41
Speaker 3: we're basically betting on Chargers taking a defensive player trading
39:45
Speaker 3: out or Tennessee taking a wide receiver trading out.
39:49
Speaker 2: Uh.
39:49
Speaker 3: Just both those teams could take Joe up. They both
39:52
Speaker 3: need an incredible tackle and that's what he is.
39:56
Speaker 1: I feel like this has to be our big balls bet. Uh, definitely,
40:00
Speaker 1: because a it's scary to bet on the best offensive
40:03
Speaker 1: lineman to go lower than to go eight or lower
40:07
Speaker 1: in a draft where everybody needs offensive line help. And
40:10
Speaker 1: as it stands right now, there are two teams in
40:13
Speaker 1: the top eight, in the top seven who could conceivably
40:17
Speaker 1: draft him. So to me, this feels like a big
40:19
Speaker 1: Ball's bet of the week because we are we are
40:22
Speaker 1: hoping so many of the things.
40:23
Speaker 2: Happens that man listed it. What's that miss you saying
40:28
Speaker 2: big balls better the week.
40:29
Speaker 1: Big balls better the week? Joe all over seven and
40:35
Speaker 1: a half at plus three hundred. So I mean it
40:37
Speaker 1: is time for me to give you my exec decision.
40:42
Speaker 1: Are you ready the choice? Between the unthinkable and the impossible?
40:47
Speaker 2: Are you your honors? Text to cute number executive decision, Yes.
40:52
Speaker 1: Sir, over six and a half d lineman ed rushers
40:56
Speaker 1: in the first round plus two hundred. So to me,
41:00
Speaker 1: I think there's probably six guys that feel like they
41:08
Speaker 1: should be first round picks. Right, it's Dallas Turner from Alabama.
41:14
Speaker 1: It's Newton to Tackle from Illinois, Jared versus that the
41:17
Speaker 1: end from Florida State Lata who liked had such a
41:20
Speaker 1: good combine, the defensive end from Ucla. Then you got
41:24
Speaker 1: Byron Murphy from Texas to everyone loves. And then Darius Robinson,
41:27
Speaker 1: the air rusher from Miszoo. So there's two guys that
41:31
Speaker 1: have been getting a lot of noise. One Shop Robinson,
41:36
Speaker 1: defensive end from Penn State. Everyone keeps saying, great name.
41:41
Speaker 1: Everyone keeps saying first round name, if you if we
41:43
Speaker 1: could just bet on first round names, we take Joe
41:45
Speaker 1: All and Shop Robinson. So the guy who was the
41:53
Speaker 1: coach for Micah Parsons for the Cowboy at the Cowboys,
41:57
Speaker 1: George Edwards, is now on the bucks. A lot of
42:00
Speaker 1: conversation about similarities in style, speed potential between Chop Robinson
42:07
Speaker 1: and Micah Parsons and what George Edwards could do with
42:11
Speaker 1: Chop Robinson. So a lot of talk about Chop Robinson
42:14
Speaker 1: going to the Bucks at number twenty six. If you
42:17
Speaker 1: get Chop Robinson at the end of the first round,
42:19
Speaker 1: you're winning this bet. You have another shot. Brandon Fist,
42:24
Speaker 1: defensive line, Florida State, who like he's a great story, right,
42:28
Speaker 1: there's actually a really good story about him in the
42:29
Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal today. Four years Western Michigan, not even recruited,
42:35
Speaker 1: goes there, plays well, develops, gets better and better. A
42:41
Speaker 1: nil hero transfers to Florida State, makes a boatload of money.
42:46
Speaker 1: He's invested like six figures into the stock market at
42:49
Speaker 1: this point. He just became very interested in the stock
42:52
Speaker 1: market and growing his financial security before he is done
42:57
Speaker 1: playing football, taking advantage of the position he's in. He
43:00
Speaker 1: was not expected to be probably even a Day two pick,
43:03
Speaker 1: but he hopped in the a SEC championship game, had
43:06
Speaker 1: a great game against Louisville, and then ran a four
43:09
Speaker 1: to seven something in the forty as a defensive lineman
43:14
Speaker 1: at the combine. So now I've seen a bunch of
43:16
Speaker 1: mocks where he is. He is sort of sneaking into
43:20
Speaker 1: the bottom of the first round. So right now, like
43:23
Speaker 1: the number on this, let me scroll back up what
43:25
Speaker 1: I was at. I was at plus two hundred. I
43:28
Speaker 1: think you got six guys guaranteed, and I think you
43:31
Speaker 1: got two guys who could sneak in at the bottom.
43:34
Speaker 1: So I think it's a little bit undervalued right now.
43:37
Speaker 1: Exact decision.
43:39
Speaker 3: I definitely agree on the chop part. But yeah, I
43:43
Speaker 3: mean with Fisker, he won Senior Bowl Week two a
43:46
Speaker 3: little bit. What you talking like, apparently all the coaches
43:50
Speaker 3: loved him, loved his motor like that's Those are the
43:53
Speaker 3: type of guys that make in the NFL, right, the
43:55
Speaker 3: guys that have been doubted their whole career, that have
43:58
Speaker 3: really grinded through all of it.
44:00
Speaker 2: You know, I would be honestly shocked.
44:04
Speaker 3: If he ended up being a first round pick just
44:06
Speaker 3: because what you just said, Like everyone had him as
44:11
Speaker 3: most likely a Day three guy. He's shining the Senior Bowl,
44:14
Speaker 3: shining and shining in his workouts or anything like that. Okay,
44:17
Speaker 3: he's a Day two guy now, should be an early
44:19
Speaker 3: day two guy, right early mid mid early second round pick.
44:23
Speaker 3: Then now what you're talking about, he's a fringe first
44:25
Speaker 3: round pick. It'd be pretty shocking if team did do it,
44:28
Speaker 3: but I don't think we'd be shocked. Right the DNS
44:31
Speaker 3: rule the NFL. I mean, yeah, who was in the
44:33
Speaker 3: Super Bowl last year the forty nine ers, who had
44:35
Speaker 3: one of the BESTD lines of football. Who was in
44:36
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl year before the Eagles one of the
44:39
Speaker 3: best d lines in all of football. So you don't
44:41
Speaker 3: just need to have a really good quarterback, right you
44:43
Speaker 3: need to have both sides. You need the old line,
44:46
Speaker 3: you need the d line. So Chad's right, like the
44:49
Speaker 3: premium in this draft right now, everyone's talking about it.
44:52
Speaker 3: I've se everyone whos a quarterback, But it's really the DNS,
44:55
Speaker 3: the old line, and the wide receivers like and that's
44:58
Speaker 3: in football. Those are the other than quarterback, the three
45:01
Speaker 3: most important position groups. So yet cha, I love your
45:05
Speaker 3: heads out, I'll make that bet with you.
45:07
Speaker 1: Let's do it, brother, Let's execut decision this together. It
45:11
Speaker 1: really comes down to chop fisk is Like fisk is
45:14
Speaker 1: sort of the added bonus, uh, But it's really about
45:18
Speaker 1: is Chopp gonna go at the bottom of the first man?
45:22
Speaker 3: Campbell takes him at the end of the first like
45:24
Speaker 3: he just for some reason it feels a good Troit
45:25
Speaker 3: guy like Fisk is yes, something I could just see
45:29
Speaker 3: the mad man Campbell, don't he just that's this type
45:31
Speaker 3: of player.
45:32
Speaker 1: And look like last year, what did the Lions do?
45:34
Speaker 1: Everyone thought they were going to do certain things. They
45:36
Speaker 1: ended up going completely against type and they drafted a
45:39
Speaker 1: linebacker and they drafted a running back. So someone will
45:43
Speaker 1: make some crazy decision that they think is smarter than
45:45
Speaker 1: everybody else. Last year the lines were right, so you
45:48
Speaker 1: just don't know, all right, let's recap. Simon says over
45:51
Speaker 1: five and a half quarterbacks in round one. Our foxhol
45:56
Speaker 1: is six plus trades in round one. Our big Balls
46:02
Speaker 1: bet of the week Joe All over seven and a
46:05
Speaker 1: half in our exec decision over six and a half
46:08
Speaker 1: d linemen slash ed Rodgers taken in the first round.
46:14
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