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Forestry at the Breaking Point | Political Capital Daily · Political Capital with Rob Shaw

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  Speaker 1: the show. It's Thursday, September 10th, 2026, and this is
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  Speaker 1: Political Capital Daily.
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  Speaker 2: Well, good morning.
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  Speaker 1: Happy Thursday to you as we work our way through
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  Speaker 1: the week. The second to last day of the week.
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  Speaker 1: So you're almost, it's almost there.
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  Speaker 2: Almost there.
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  Speaker 1: Well, we can probably hear my cat in the background.
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  Speaker 1: She's pretty excited about that. The weekend is on the horizon.
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  Speaker 1: Jillian Oliver joining me, a longtime green strategist, OG member
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  Speaker 1: of Political Capital Prime.
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  Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us in the morning, Jillian.
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  Speaker 3: Good to be back.
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  Speaker 2: There is not a heavy.
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  Speaker 1: agenda this morning in bc politics although there is always
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  Speaker 1: the kind of threat of things occurring uh and other
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  Speaker 1: wild cards that are occurring but we're going to walk
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  Speaker 1: you through quickly what's happening here then we got a
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  Speaker 1: lot to talk about from yesterday's and especially big forestry
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  Speaker 1: letter and a critic shuffle from the bc conservatives but
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  Speaker 1: if you're marking your political calendar this morning there is
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  Speaker 1: an event at 9 30 with the energy minister adrian
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  Speaker 1: Dix and Anne Kang, who is going to be at
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  Speaker 1: the BCIT campus talking about skilled trades training seats.
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  Speaker 2: That is always, you know, a pretty big issue.
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  Speaker 1: In British Columbia, especially when there's a shortage of skilled
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  Speaker 1: trades for some of the big things that the province
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  Speaker 1: is planning on building. LNG mining, North Coast transmission line.
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  Speaker 1: So we'll watch for that. The Premier continues his Northern tour.
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  Speaker 1: Today he's in Stikine.
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  Speaker 2: Heads to Dees Lake later in the day.
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  Speaker 1: There's no public events there facing him, so it's mostly
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  Speaker 1: local meet and greets. You don't expect to hear from
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  Speaker 1: him or any announcements unless something major happens, and he
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  Speaker 1: finds some cell reception. And then nationally and internationally, I
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  Speaker 1: guess we're watching Prime Minister Mark Carney, who has the
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  Speaker 1: Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky in Calgary this morning before a
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  Speaker 1: cabinet planning meeting later in the day in Banff, where
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  Speaker 1: actually Zelensky will speak to the cabinet members.
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  Speaker 3: And.
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  Speaker 1: The BC Ferries kind of Build It Here Coalition is
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  Speaker 1: expected to have a sort of technical kind of launch
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  Speaker 1: of an economic study that will explain the economic benefits
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  Speaker 1: of building future ferries in British Columbia to GDP and
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  Speaker 1: the economy and skilled trades workers and the marine shipbuilding sector.
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  Speaker 1: That's a campaign they launched last week. Time is a
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  Speaker 1: flat circle. I think it was last week to... kind
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  Speaker 1: of pressure the BC government and BC ferries to put
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  Speaker 1: on the table their plans for future ferries and get
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  Speaker 1: that marker down that they can be built here in
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  Speaker 1: British Columbia. So an economic study coming from them later today. Jillian,
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  Speaker 1: we're just going to take a quick break right off
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  Speaker 1: the top. I know we just started, but we got
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  Speaker 1: a lot to cover in the latter half of the show.
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  Speaker 2: So we'll just do this right now. Hang on.
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  Speaker 1: All right, thanks for joining us this morning for a
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  Speaker 2: Back to the show.
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  Speaker 1: All right, Jillian, we have a big letter from the
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  Speaker 1: forestry sector land yesterday where major parts of basically the
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  Speaker 1: entire sector, including the unions representing the workers and the employers,
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  Speaker 1: which are almost never on the same page, put their
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  Speaker 1: names down in a letter to the provincial government saying
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  Speaker 1: we need an emergency council action crisis group with the premier.
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  Speaker 2: We need a 30-day action plan.
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  Speaker 1: The tariffs from the U.S., including the new tariffs, the
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  Speaker 1: softwood lumber duties, And the general state of the forest
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  Speaker 1: sector in BC is a crisis. And they were calling
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  Speaker 1: for provincial action. Got a lot of attention, I think,
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  Speaker 1: because of the more than 14 organizations on this letter.
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  Speaker 1: Anything stand out to you in this ongoing, continued kind
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  Speaker 1: of slow motion, unfortunate collapse of the forestry sector?
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  Speaker 3: Well, I think that the fact that we're seeing industry
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  Speaker 3: and labor come together is, really speaks to the desperation
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  Speaker 3: and the urgency that the sector is in. Um, unfortunately forestry,
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  Speaker 3: I mean, how many shows have we done about them
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  Speaker 3: being in crisis? I think, uh, has so many pressures
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  Speaker 3: on it, environmental pressures from whether it's the pine beetle
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  Speaker 3: or forest fires, um, to overharvesting and then now the
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  Speaker 3: tariffs and, um, Softwood lumber, lumber in general, is like
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  Speaker 3: one of the most targeted industries for tariffs. Tariffs actually
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  Speaker 3: were maintained under Biden because the U.S. industry sees us
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  Speaker 3: as having an unfair competitive advantage because they're able to
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  Speaker 3: log on crown land, whereas forester companies in the States
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  Speaker 3: have to buy their private land to log on. So
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  Speaker 3: it's a really tough issue for government to manage, given
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  Speaker 3: just how many pressures it's facing.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, it has been a managed decline, a lot of
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  Speaker 1: people would say, in expectations and Harvest and revenues and jobs,
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  Speaker 1: thousands of jobs lost, more than 20 sawmills closed in
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  Speaker 1: the last three years, multiple pulp mills, including House Sound
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  Speaker 1: on the last couple of weeks, Crofton on the island.
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  Speaker 1: Here is Jeff Bromley, the wood chair of the United Steelworkers,
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  Speaker 1: the major forestry union, and also importantly, to keep in
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  Speaker 1: mind here, a big backer of the BC NDP government
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  Speaker 1: with his comments to me yesterday.
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  Speaker 4: I mean, that's really indicative of the crisis that we're
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  Speaker 4: faced with here in British Columbia. that a lot of
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  Speaker 4: the players in the industry, myself representing the unionized workforce,
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  Speaker 4: we're not usually in the business of partnering with industry,
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  Speaker 4: but desperate times call for desperate measures. And so not
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  Speaker 4: only from a unionized standpoint, where a lot of the
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  Speaker 4: times it's an adversarial relationship with the employer, this time
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  Speaker 4: we've got to impress upon government how much of a
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  Speaker 4: crisis this is. And that if these employers aren't able
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  Speaker 4: to be successful to continue their business, that means thousands
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  Speaker 4: of jobs will be impacted again, as it has been
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  Speaker 4: over the last 10 years in British Columbia's forest industry.
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  Speaker 1: And here's Kim Hackstead from the Council of Forest Industries
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  Speaker 1: on the basically on the corporate side.
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  Speaker 2: Of the argument.
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  Speaker 5: There's a couple of different things driving it. One is
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  Speaker 5: it's driven by the fact that it's taking two to
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  Speaker 5: three years to get a cut permit when we've seen
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  Speaker 5: a mine permitted in 10 months. So we want the
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  Speaker 5: same kind of whole of government focus on getting forestry
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  Speaker 5: permits processed as we've seen from other sectors and for
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  Speaker 5: other sectors. And that helps reduce cost, which means that
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  Speaker 5: we can actually get products to market at a more
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  Speaker 5: competitive price, right? Right now, with the challenges with the U.S.,
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  Speaker 5: we are also having challenges with other global markets because
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  Speaker 5: they're saying Canadian products are too expensive. So we have
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  Speaker 5: to address this not just for the U.S., but also
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  Speaker 5: for global markets and, of course, domestic markets. So that's
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  Speaker 5: one thing that's driving costs. We also enter into long-term
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  Speaker 5: tenure management agreements with the province. Since 2017, the cost
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  Speaker 5: of managing those tenures has gone up by more than 50%.
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  Speaker 5: That far exceeds inflation. That is, you know, in our view,
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  Speaker 5: an unacceptable increase in costs. We have to take a
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  Speaker 5: look at whether or not we've really just embedded costs
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  Speaker 5: in the system versus finding, you know, efficient and effective
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  Speaker 5: regulation that protects the environment as well as creates economic
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  Speaker 5: opportunity from our forested land base.
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  Speaker 1: An interesting alignment here of the unionized workers saying the
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  Speaker 1: company's got to make a buck and the company saying, Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: we got to make a buck too, Gillian, this kind
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  Speaker 1: of overlapping idea that the government, the core takeaway from
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  Speaker 1: the letter is that yes, tariffs and softwood lumber duties
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  Speaker 1: are hurting and decimating the sector, but there's a lot
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  Speaker 1: of provincial policies that could be immediately changed, fees, levies,
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  Speaker 1: access to fiber that they want to see. And now
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  Speaker 1: you've got one of what used to be the single
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  Speaker 1: biggest donor to the BCNDP, the steelworkers, and the forestry
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  Speaker 1: sector kind of singing from the same song sheet on this.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it puts a lot of pressure on
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  Speaker 3: the premier's office and on the forestry ministry, a minister, um,
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  Speaker 3: to take action. They've had, you know, report after report
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  Speaker 3: on their desk. There's a big report out. Um, I
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  Speaker 3: think I forget if it was last year or earlier
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  Speaker 3: this year, and we haven't gotten an update on progress
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  Speaker 3: on whether, uh, those recommendations have been implemented. Um, It'll
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  Speaker 3: be interesting to see, you know, I think there's some
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  Speaker 3: things like forming the crisis working group seems like a
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  Speaker 3: no brainer to have that direct line and to come
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  Speaker 3: up with pragmatic solutions. accessing more fiber. I mean, there's
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  Speaker 3: a lot of very real, um, constraints just because of the,
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  Speaker 3: the like environmental and like physical realities in the forest. Um,
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  Speaker 3: but certainly I think puts a lot of pressure on
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  Speaker 3: the government to, to speed up their action wherever they can. Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: The political reaction from the forest minister Ravi Parmar was,
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  Speaker 1: He's willing to get the Premier to meet with all
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  Speaker 1: these players. He says he's already talking to them anyways,
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  Speaker 1: which begs the question why they're writing a letter asking
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  Speaker 1: to talk to him, which I put to him, and
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  Speaker 1: he said, I don't know.
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  Speaker 2: You'd have to ask them. Just kind of weird.
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  Speaker 1: Like, I don't think the dialogue is flowing perhaps as
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  Speaker 1: well as the minister thinks if all of these groups
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  Speaker 1: are signing a letter saying.
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  Speaker 2: We need to talk.
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  Speaker 1: And then also the BC Conservative critic here, Gavin Dew.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: Not often we get to talk about a BC Conservative
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  Speaker 1: critic on the show because they've Don't talk to us,
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  Speaker 1: but Gavin Dew did, and to his credit, and he
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: said that the Premier's kind of performative nonsense with his
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  Speaker 1: rap and flag-waving yesterday clashes with the reality of things
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  Speaker 1: his government could be doing right now to help the
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  Speaker 1: forestry sector. So that was kind of the political debate
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  Speaker 1: on this, Gillian.
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  Speaker 2: I don't know if that's good or bad for the
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  Speaker 2: forest sector. I'm not sure I saw it. A lot
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  Speaker 2: of movement from the forest minister, but he did say
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  Speaker 2: he was listening. Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: Well, the premier was wearing a lumberjack shirt, so he's
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: got to put his money where his mouth is.
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: A Salmo dinner jacket? That's from your neck of the woods, right? Salmo?
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Salmo's in the Kootenays.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Are there people from Nelson? You're not in Nelson anymore,
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: but were there people who wore Salmo dinner jackets just
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: walking around looking cool and whatnot?
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, sure.
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  Speaker 3: Any night of the week, I'd say.
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  Speaker 5: Wow.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, this is a whole new world. I'm going to
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: have to check it out. EB wore it well, but
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: the price tag may or may not have still been
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: on it. I don't know. I couldn't tell for sure.
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  Speaker 1: A couple more items I want to get to here
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: while we've got some time. There was an announcement from
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  Speaker 1: the BC government, a victory lap of sorts from the
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: housing minister yesterday on newrentals.ca data that says national rents
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: are down almost 5% year over year, 4.8%. Roughly the
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  Speaker 1: same in BC with the biggest drops of upwards of
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  Speaker 1: 10% in Abbotsford.
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  Speaker 2: As well as lower in Coquitlam, Richmond, and Kelowna. The
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  Speaker 2: government and.
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  Speaker 1: Christine Boyle, the minister, saying this is proof that the
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: government is on the right track with its housing policies,
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  Speaker 1: including limiting the annual allowable rent increase to 2.2% this year.
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  Speaker 1: Without that cap, the government says it would have been 5.6%.
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  Speaker 1: So a victory lap from government that always kind of
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: depending on where you are on the spectrum of housing,
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: sometimes clashes with people still upset about the short-term rental
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: restrictions or upset about the provincial zoning, uh, you know,
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: quad plexes on single family lots or the pick, take
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: your pick. Um, but rents coming down while the sector
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: is sort of struggling to build, it's always kind of
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  Speaker 1: a double-edged sword. Um, but for renters, Jillian, do you
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  Speaker 1: think a victory lap for government there, um, is an
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: easy one for the government to take and kind of
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: hold being able to point to rents coming down. Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, it's been so long since we got good
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: news on the housing affordability front. And I like anecdotally
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: heard from lots of people who are so grateful to
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: have a little bit more flexibility in their lives. They
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: don't feel tied to like a certain place or whatever,
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: because there is just like more affordable rentals available. And
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: that's the type of thing that really, I think, you know,
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  Speaker 3: people can feel and, and resonates, uh, with them. I
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  Speaker 3: think though it is a longer term kind of looming
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: issue with the slowdown in building. Um, and if they're
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: going to be able to maintain it, um, you know,
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: some of the government policies might've had, had a hand
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: in leading to this decrease, but there's also the federal action, um,
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: on cutting down on international students, which I think is
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: a big factor. Um, and that, you know, perhaps we'll
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: start to see them kind of continue to creep up, um, Also,
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: BC lost a lot of people last year because things
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: got so expensive. With things getting cheaper now, maybe we
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: start to see a bit of a shift in population
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: back to BC. And I think long term, there's still
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: a lot of questions on the housing file.
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, 100%.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: The math always worked with the idea in housing that
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: folks who bought something, even as an investment, God forbid,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: in some circles, you can do that.
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: But if they did, they could rent it for the mortgage.
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: And that worked out.
• 14:36
  Speaker 4: Now.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: With rents going down, that math doesn't work. You see
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: pre-sales of new, especially condos going down or drying up entirely,
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: stalling new construction and the financing.
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: So there's like a, nothing is easy in the housing sector.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: All these policies, good news, one area leads to complicated
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: news in other areas, as you pointed out. And nonetheless,
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: lots of folks would be happy to hear that from government.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: One last item here. BC Conservative leader Carolyn Finlay shuffling
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: her critic portfolios after she lost nine MLAs in the
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: last month. The remaining 28 MLAs, all of them, got
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: critic portfolios, or shadow minister portfolios, as they are now called.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: Some highlights here, and this is the big one, we'll
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: just talk about this off the top. The elimination of
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: the Indigenous relations, a critic portfolio that had been held
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: by Scott McInnes, he quit. It has disappeared entirely. The
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: closest version of it, I guess, is Shadow Minister for
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: Land and Property Protection, which Finlay has retained herself. And
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: no Indigenous relations whatsoever. Jillian, what do you think that
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: means and says about the Conservatives?
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: I think it means that Carrie Lynn Finlay's Conservatives, if
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: they're confronted with an uncomfortable or inconvenient reality they're just
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: going to pretend that it doesn't exist i also note
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: they don't have a critic for climate change um and
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: i think you know they would like to pretend that
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: there isn't a very real impetus for for reconciliation and
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: for having um productive relationships with indigenous people um because
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: they don't have good answers for that and it doesn't
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: you know support their sort of more adversarial worldview um
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: but i think it's going to make it harder for
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: them to present a cohesive, um, platform and vision for
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: the province that's credible to voters that brings us, you know,
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: to a more, to a better place as a province.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: It would be difficult to form government and not have
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: had any critics or MLAs form any relationships whatsoever with
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: first nations leaders and organizations, uh, or even acknowledge that
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: that is something an MLA should be doing, uh, Because
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: eventually you have to as government.
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: There's no, you can't just ignore it, as you said.
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: Especially in BC where we don't have treaties and that's
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: just the legal reality.
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: Not to mention the right thing to do.
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: Interesting. Some other highlights here.
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: Interim leader Heather Moss, who's leader in the House right now,
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: picked up agriculture after the departure of Ian Payton. Brent Chapman,
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: the husband of Carolyn Finley, is now leading artificial intelligence
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: alongside arts and culture. Anna Kindy takes on seniors' health
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: in addition to health after the departure of Brennan Day.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: And John Rustad, who was kind of co-criticking Indigenous relations,
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: has been demoted to Treasury Board critic, which I have
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: never even heard before. I don't know how you critic
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: Treasury Board that doesn't announce its decisions or has no
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: public meetings. That one's weird to me. Misty Van Popta
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: gets the housing portfolio after the departure of Alia Warbus.
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: And former interim leader Trevor Halford, who we've talked about
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: on the show, has done a pretty good job as leader,
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: has left a languish in the dark corner of transit
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: and ICBC, not even transportation, because that's Harman Bangu, a
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: bit of a misuse of one of their top critics there,
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: although I guess it doesn't look like Carrie Lynn Finley
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: recognizes Halford as such. So everybody's got a job, and
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: sometimes multiple jobs, but not all The jobs match up
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: with the government ministries, and it's an interesting critic shuffle
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: from Miss Finlay. So that brings us to the end
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: of the show. Jillian, I appreciate you being here so
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: early on in the morning. We've got Political Capital Prime
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: coming up Friday and the return of the pod squad
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: for that. So we're going to see you there. That's
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: an exciting return to the regular show where people get
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: to look at us in the face, although there's still
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: an audio version, but you can also look at us
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: in our faces.
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: As we speak, which is very, very fun.
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: Not for me, but for other people. I don't like
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: it particularly, but that's okay. That's okay. Thanks for being here, Jillian,
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: and thank you, everyone, for listening. We'll be back tomorrow
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: on Political Capital Daily. Until then, take care.