Latest / Toadstool Sports / Rangers/Blue Jays MLB + WNBA + NFL Preseason Best Bets Friday 8/15/25 w/ Top Lobsta & Raven

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Rangers/Blue Jays MLB + WNBA + NFL Preseason Best Bets Friday 8/15/25 w/ Top Lobsta & Raven · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you above that. I just
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four that have
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: not had had a good season. Man with wookends the
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've reached
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: a new peak. Actually, I'm gonna burn my browins hat Man,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: March eight?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: it's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: don't know what day it is anymore. But I don't
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: even know what day it is anymore. Man, back with
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: you after the worst day that I could possibly have,
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Back with few as I always am until I die,
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: not go well for me. Own five the worst month
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: To the slump yesterdays, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: I should do at this point, other than potentially end
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: it all. What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: were better off dead Friday, August fifteenth, and yeah, we
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: are definitely considering ending at all here after own two yesterday,
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: I thought both of my players were solid. I thought
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: there was some professional money backing those up. Actually, yesterday,
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: if you listened to some of the professional better as,
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: I thought that they were kind of in alignment with me.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: At least some of the guys I was listening to,
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: it seemed like that was the case. So unfortunately, Philadelphia
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: did not get there. They were winning the game two
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: to one. We needed them to win by multiple runs,
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: and then their bullpen was the one that blew it.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: As somehow Brad Lord for Washington went like seven innings
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: in the game or something and allowed almost nothing to Philadelphia.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: It makes no sense at all. Philadelphia's bullpen lost. I
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: believe in the eighth inning it's just terrible, man. So
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: that was a loss they lost out right, and then
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Arizona Colorado didn't get there even though I believe we
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: saw eighteen hits in that game, which you get eighteen hits,
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: it's a disneyasent chance they're gonna get twelve runs in
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: that game, and it did not happen. We got ten
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: runs as Colorado did not score in the game. Arizona
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: definitely held up there end of the bargain. Arizona was
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: winning the game like seven and nothing I think of
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: the fifth inning, so it was looking like, okay, well
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: Arizona might just get over this thing by themselves, like
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: as long as Colorado gets a couple of runs here,
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: we should be good. But Arizona never scored again after that.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: I think they kind of just took their foot off
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: the gas and packed it in. So really, really bad,
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: horrible day on the show. Owing to JC, what's up man,
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: thanks for hanging out. We move on to today where
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: we have a big card today that I got to
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: try to get through. Here. My camera is malfunctioning of course,
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: every time the lighting changes when I switch windows, the
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: cameras like, nope, we're not going to focus on you anymore.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: We have WNBA today. I mean, I don't even know
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: if I want to do this anymore, go through all
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: this with a WNBA, But we do have Washington at
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: Indiana is a big favorite here. They're actually down a
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: little bit from nine and a half to eight and
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: a half, so some money is coming against Indiana. Caylen
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Clark still not back. Originally it seemed like she might
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: be back at some point this week. She isn't. Indiana's
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: staying at home. They've lost three of their last four games, though,
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: and they lost at home last time out against a
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: pretty poor Dallas team. So Indiana not really playing the
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: greatest basketball right now. Debatably, they would want to bounce
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: back for that. But Washington might have a little extra
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: motivation here because I think Washington's trying to come back,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: trying to actually make the playoffs. Hang on, I think
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: my audio is a little bit too loud here. Let
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: me move that down a little bit. Hopefully that's a
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: little bit better there. But anyway, yeah, Washington, they're trying
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: to make the playoffs. They might have a little bit
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: of extra motivation here coming into this game. Washington, they
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: are I don't even know what they're doing right now, Man,
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: haven't been beening enough attention. They're starting a road trip
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: after losing a bunch of games in a row, so
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: they might actually be in a decent spot to bounce back.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: Although they did just beat Dallas, so some of the
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: public might look at that and think, oh, well, if
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: Washington could beat Dallas and Dallas just beat Indiana, and
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: then of course Washington's gonna cover this number. Right, But
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: the public's not always wrong. Maybe they have this one
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: right because Washington the last time out it was a
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: bad spot for them in a return home spot, which
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: tends to be a distracted spots. So now they're going
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: back out on the road, they might play a little
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: bit better. I would probably generally agree with the line
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: move on that one slightly in towards Washington. Plus the
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: points Golden State at Chicago or Chicago will still be
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: without Angel Reese. I believe they're just playing awful basketball.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: They're turning home from a quick two game road trip.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Shorter road trip means you're away from home for less
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: of a period of time, so it means I think
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: a little bit less of a distraction spot when you
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: come back home. Chicago did just lose at home to
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Golden State not that long ago though, so maybe a
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: little bit of a revenge spot for Chicago. But Golden
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: State's gonna have motivation too because they're trying to make
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: the playoffs as well, sitting just above five hundred here,
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: so I think they're gonna show up as well. They're
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: in the middle of a road trip already with a
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: little bit of momentum. That's a game I'm not gonna
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not gonna have anything to do with
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: any of these games. Golden State's up from four to seven,
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: which may be a little bit of an over adjustment
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: at that point. I think there's probably no more line
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: value on the Golden State side. They should win this game,
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: but I think some of that is because maybe the
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: thought was that Angel Reese was gonna come back and
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: she isn't, so that's probably part of the reason for
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: the line move. Probably not a whole lot of value
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: left in Golden State there LA At Dallas, Dallas just
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: beat Indiana, like I said, in their one game road trip,
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: and now they're returning back home. Dallas really doesn't have
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: anything to play for it though. In LA basically is
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: gonna miss the playoffs unless they start winning right now,
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: so I think LA does have a more urgency here.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: But LA did just play a big game against the
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: New York Liberty, who are one of the best teams
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: of the WNBA, and played them pretty close and lost
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: by eight. They are starting a road trip, though, and
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: they do even though normally I would think maybe it's
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a hangover spot after that New
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: York game, I think they are gonna show up focus here.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: LA the money line season the money line the spread
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: has gone up from three to five and a half here,
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: so the money does seem to be coming in on
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: the LA side there. I don't really disagree with it.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, Dallas, whenever you beat Kaitlyn Clark's team, though
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: it was without Kaitlyn Clark, it's kind of a big deal.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: So that's gonna be the way I look at that.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna skip Seattle Atlanta for a second because that's
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: gonna be one of my plays. Vegas at Phoenix. Too
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: many WNBA games today, man, not a whole lot going on.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Maybe I should just give out my plays and not
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: handicap every game. But we're not doing on the show.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, because I have to find the play I
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: have to handicap everything. Phoenix just lost a three game
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: win streak losing to Atlanta. Atlanta is playing pretty well
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: right now, Phoenix, they're pretty much guaranteed to make the
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: playoffs right now, but this is a pretty big game
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: against Vegas. Vegas is right behind them. Vegas has pretty
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: much played their way into the playoffs here, playing really
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: well recently. They're on a five game win streak and
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: they did just beat the Liberty. They're going out on
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: the road with a little bit of momentum, but they
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: might possibly be in a little bit of a letdown
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: spot here as well. I think both teams will show
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: up for this one, though it's a difficult game to handicap.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: Phoenix is up from three and a half to four
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: and a half with juice, I wouldn't really disagree with that.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: I do think Phoenix probably is in the somewhat better
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: spot there. Yeah, I mean not by a whole bunch though, Vegas,
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: just because they're coming off a huge win like that,
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: and I do have a play in the WNBA for
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: the first time in a while. Oh boy, this one
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: is gonna be one that if people are following the WNBA,
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: They're gonna think I'm out of my mind. Seattle plus
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: the points is where I'm gonna go with this one.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: Seattle plus two and a half against Atlanta. Now, this
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: is a weird spot, man. This is a neutral site
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: game in Vancouver, so Seattle probably has a I don't
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: know if I would want to say a semi home
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: advantage here, but it is obviously way closer to Seattle.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: I don't know if the people up in Canada are
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: really gonna give a shit about this game. But in
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: addition to that, I think Seattle needs a game more, man.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, first of all, people are not gonna want
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: to play Seattle in this game now that they're below
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: five hundred in Atlanta has the best record in the East.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: But I think that's why we want to fade Atlanta here.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: I think this is a bad spot for Atlanta. They've
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: already played three road games in a roun. Yeah. I know,
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: we're jumping in front of a big win streak for
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: them in a big loss street for Seattle. So you
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: can call me crazy. I mean, sometimes you don't want
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: to do that, but I think it's gonna end here, man.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: For both teams. I think they're gonna end those wins,
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: end those streaks. And Lanta, yeah, they've won six games
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: in a row. They won three games in a row
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: on the road. This one I would still basically consider
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: to be a road game here. They're going up from
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Seattle to Vancouver. They are playing a second game three days,
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: so it's a little bit of a difficult spot for them.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: They haven't had really that tightly packed of a schedule here,
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: but still basically a fourth straight road game, and then
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: they have two more road games after this. It's a
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: little bit of a difficult spot. And they just beat
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Seattle in Seattle, so it's a little bit of a
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: zig zag spot where Seattle might bounce back a little
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: bit and have some adjustments to make right because when
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: you lose at home to a team and you play
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: that team again right away, I would like this better
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: if Atlanta was returning home actually, which would be a
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: really crazy spot fading them to return home spot. But
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: still I think this is a spot to fade them.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: I think it's a zig zag spot. Seattle, I think
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: we'll make the adjustments here. Seattle might have a little
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: bit of extra motivation too, because they're below five hundred now,
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of another motivating factor where when you've
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: been above five hundred basically all year and then you
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: fall below five hundred, you come out and you play better. Man,
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: Britney Griner came off the bench again in that game,
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: he slash she will be playing in this game. But
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know if Grinder is now like because Grinder's old.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: I don't know if Grinder now will be like coming
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: off the bench. I don't know. I don't follow them enough.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: But there aren't really any injuries to really be concerned
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: about here on either side of the of the ball,
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: I don't think. But if you look at what happened
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: in this last game, it was a bit of an outlier.
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: If you look at those shooting percentages, I mean, Seattle
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: had a really bad shooting game, thirty five point three
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: percent from three compared to forty six point two percent
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: from Atlanta. That was really where a lot of the
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: game came down to something like that. Man, Atlanta's shooting
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: ridiculously high three point percentage. I don't think that's really
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: gonna happen again. They shot pretty high from the field
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: as well, forty nine point two. They absolutely dominated the boards,
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: which I'm not saying that Atlanta's not gonna win the
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: rebound battle again. They very well might, but I don't
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: know that it'll be this lopsided. And I honestly don't
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: know how Atlanta lost the turnover battle seven to sixteen
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: or sixteen to seven, whatever, still won the game by
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: this much. But I think by the end of the
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: game it was just out of hand, and I don't
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: think it's gonna get out of hand this time. I
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: think it's gonna be a much more competitive matchup. I
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: think Seattle will come focus here. Seattle's lost six games
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: in a row, man, but most of these games are
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: a pretty difficult competition, I know, including Atlanta. But LA
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: is not that bad of a team. Vegas has been
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: playing really well, Minnesota is the best team in the league.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Indiana was playing pretty well even without Caitlyn Clark. So
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: these losses that Seattle had were not like to the
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: dregs of the league either. And I think Seattle has
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: extra motivation. Again, I think I said it at the
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: beginning of the handicap. They're trying to make the playoffs, man,
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: so I expect Seattle to come out motivated here. I
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: know the lines moved up from two to two and
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: a half. It might even reach three. I'm gonna recommend
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: to play on the Seattle Storm in this game, man,
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: plus the points that put a little bit on the
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: money line, I think they might get that game outright, man.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: So that's the play there. Oh and I forgot. This
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: is the rundown. But let's jump into MLB here. We
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: have a full baseball slate here. I'm gonna try to
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: get through. Takes forever to get through these, man. Maybe
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: I should become less autistic and less of a completionist
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: and not handicap every single game, but we will say, Curtis,
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: what's up man, thanks for hanging out. Forty nine Ers
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: and Raiders? Is that tomorrow? I haven't really handicapped that
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: game yet, but the Raiders already are playing their starters
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: in the preseason, and the forty nine Ers, i'm guessing
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: are probably not going to be doing that, so I
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: don't know. I'll have to look. I might talk about
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: it tomorrow though, if that's a game that's tomorrow. But
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: probably the Raiders, if they're going to be playing their
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: starting quarterback and whatever, and the forty nine ers aren't
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: all right, we got MLB. We do have an after
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: noon game here, Pittsburgh at Chicago, one of these Wrigley
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Field after noon games here. The Cubs actually played yesterday
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: and Pittsburgh did not, so that's something to keep in
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: mind here. The Cubs kind of in a bad spot here.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: They're actually returning home from a road trip and they
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: played yesterday fairly big series against Toronto. Now they're returning
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: home to face the bottom team in their division, Pittsburgh
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: or the Chicago The Cubs haven't been playing that well recently. Man,
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee's been so hot that the Cubs have fallen completely
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: down in the division. I think they're still gonna make
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, but they gotta make sure they start winning, man,
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: so they could play better, but this is a bad
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: spot for them. Nonetheless, Pittsburgh had yesterday off, so Pittsburgh
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: is the rest of team. They're coming in on a
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: five game lost streak. But I think maybe having that
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: time off will actually help them. They're only traveling down
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: from Milwaukee, such a much easier travel spot for Pittsburgh,
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: and they got embarrassed in that Milwaukee series. I know
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: it's the hottest team, the best team in baseball, probably
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: in Milwaukee. But when you get blasted like that and
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: you lose by like you give up double digit run
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: totals in every game in the series, you're gonna want
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: to bounce back from that. The Cubs, by the way,
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: as far as their bullpen is concerned, they didn't use
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: a lot of their bullpens. That should help the Cubs
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: a little bit. They only use Pomerants, so all their
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: better relievers are pretty much still available here, so at
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: least there is that. So the Cubs do have the
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: better bullpend here, they do have the better offense, and
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: my hes some of my hesitation on Pittsburgh is that
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: I don't want to deal with Pittsburgh basically going with
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: a bulp end game here. They got Braxton Ashcraft listed
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: as their starter. Three point one to nine ERA is good,
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: one point three to six whip not really very good.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: He's been better on the road two point four to
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: one ERA. But I don't know how much stock we
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: can put into any of this because he was coming
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: out of the bulp and most of the season, and
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: then I believe he made one start in his last
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: outing and he did okay. Against Cincinnati, got through three
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: and a third innings, give up one and run, five strikeouts,
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: one walks. He was actually pretty good in that game,
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: but I don't know how long he's gonna last in
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: this game. And Cincinnati they're a decent offense. The Cubs
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: are a better offense. Again, I think it's a really
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: really questionable what you're gonna get out of Ashcraft, And
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: with Pittsburgh not having played yesterday, they're probably not gonna
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: hesitate to bring in some of their relievers pretty early
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: on in this game. The Cubs are actually zero for
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: six with two strikeouts off Batchcraft in their careers. But
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: it's a very small sample size. I don't know, there's
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: a whole lot to take a away from that. I
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: don't know if you can really trust him, man, even
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: though I know he pitched better, pitched fairly well in
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: his last game, which Pittsburgh, by the way, still lost
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: that game because they can't score. Colin Ray is pitching
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: for the Cubs. I mean, he's been a starter for
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: them all season. Four point zero nine ERA, one point
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: two nine whip isn't that great? A little bit worse
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: at home? Four point three e RA at home, he
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: was good. In his last start, he gave it one
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: earned run at Saint Louis. I said that Chicago was
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: a lean for me in that game. It does us
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: have a ten to three strike a walker race year
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: this month only allowed three ear and runs and ten
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: to two thirds two point five three e ras. He's
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: pitching all right right now. But he didn't even make
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: it five innings two starts to go against Baltimore. So
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: you might have to question Ray a little bit. I mean,
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: I'm not really a fan of him in general, but
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: is he better than Ashcraft plus a Pittsburgh bullpend game? Maybe?
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: But his numbers against Pittsburgh are actually surprisingly bad, even
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: though Pittsburgh's offense is terrible. So really there's a huge
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: disparity in the offense here, ninety five at bats, fifteen
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: to eight strike a walk ratio not a two ninety
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: five average, and eight to fifty five ops. So Ray
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: doesn't really do well against Pittsburgh. So there are some
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: indicators that tell you that maybe the Cubs, I mean,
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: they could potentially have a bad game in this one.
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: Clubs are up for minus one to eighty to a
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: minus one ninety five and on the money line, seventy
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: eight percent of tickets, ninety two percent of the cash
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: coming in on them, and money actually coming in on
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: the under, flipping the total from nine juice to the over,
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: to juice to the under. Fifty percent of the tickets
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: evenly split on the total, but eighty three percent of
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: the cash on the under. I don't really see the
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: under man. With Ray having bad numbers against Pittsburgh, Ashcraft
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: probably not lasting too long in this game, I don't
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: see it. I mean, situationally, it looks like a spot
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: where you might want to fade the Cubs. Maybe worth
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: worth a play on the Pittsburgh run line, but I'm
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: not gonna actually recommend that as a play man. And
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: this game is just crazy. I mean, I'm not gonna
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: have money on that game. Yeah, there's good money in
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: betting baseball because it's less of a publicly bet sports,
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: so the oddsmakers don't pay as much attention to it
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: as they pay to like NFL and stuff. Although I
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: actually do the best in NBA, but historically over eighteen
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: whatever years now baseball is in my second best sport,
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: but it hasn't been that good the last couple of years.
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: Hopefully we get back on track here though, But yes,
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: I would say there is it. Also, it's a sport
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: that throws people off because it's a money line sports.
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: They tend to not really know what to do with it.
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: So baseball there are like different tricks that you can have,
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: or you can play run lines, you can play first
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: five inning plays to really focus on, like starting pitching mattress,
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: whereas in other sports I almost never do like first
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: half plays or anything like that. That's just not my thing.
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee at Cincinnati the first of the evening slate up here. Cincinnati,
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: they're on a little bit of a nice run right now,
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: winning four of their last five. They're trying to make
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. Here they're staying at home. So with momentum,
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: Hunter Green nice start in his first game back from
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: the list, I believe. I don't know if they'll be
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: in a letdown spot coming off beating Philadelphia. I mean
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: that's pretty big, beating Philadelphia twice their last two games
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: that they played and holding them to one run combined.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: But you know they're gonna still be focused with Milwaukee
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: coming in. I mean, Milwaukee's been so good recently. Cincinnati
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: probably will still show up in this game. Neither of
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: these teams played yesterday, by the way, so we have
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: some bullpend rest here. Milwaukee obviously has a ton of momentum.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: They've won I don't know, twelve thirteen games in a row,
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: whatever that is. Coming off a sweep of Pittsburgh at
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: some point, they got to be feeling a little bit
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: high on themselves. I don't know, Man, They're having to
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: travel down to Cincinnati now, but it's with momentum starting
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: a road trip. Usually you are focused when you start
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: a road trip. Milwaukee does have the better offense. Their
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: offense is good on the road. Milwaukee has the better
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: bullpen as well. But starting pitching, we don't even know
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: who Milwaukee starter is going to be in this game, man,
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: So big time question mark here in Cincinnati has Nick
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: Martinez starting. They've used Nick Martinez in some weird ways
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: this year, Man, Cincinnati has been doing some weird stuff. Generally,
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: he's been pretty good. Four point four to nine eras
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: not that good, but one point one nine whip is
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: pretty solid. He's been pretty much the same home and away.
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: It doesn't really matter, even though this is a pitcher
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: friendly park. At home. Around the All Star Game, they
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: were giving him a little bit of a rest, and
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: they had him make like one relief appearance I think,
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: or maybe a couple of relief appearances, had some short appearances.
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: Coming out of the All Star Break, he's been fairly good,
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: except he had one really bad start where he got
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: rocked by Miami, which really, when you look back at it,
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: it makes absolutely no sense because since then he's allowed
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: two or fewer earned runs in every start. Cincinnati's won
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: all six of those starts for him, and they actually
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: won nine of his last ten this month. He has
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: a only a four to two strike a walk ratio,
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: which isn't that great, but he's only allowed three earned runs.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: He went seven innings against Pittsburgh last time out, giving
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: him one earn run. I mean, Pittsburgh's a terrible, terrible offense.
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: Though didn't do well against the Cubs the day, but
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: the game of for that, but he got pulled early
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: in the game for some reason, only went two and
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: a third. I don't really know. Actually, I think he
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: might have. He might have come in relief in that game.
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: Actually think that might have been the game when Nick
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: Lodolo started and got a blister. So Martinez actually came
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: in a relief in that game too. So Martinez, he's
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: had a weird season. Man, He's been up and down,
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: but when he's been starting over the past month or so,
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: he's been pretty effective more or less. Uh So, I
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: think he's fairly good. And he actually has good numbers
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: against the Brewers, even though they're a good offense. At
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: sixty two at bats, he's got a fourteen to three
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio against him, a one seventy seven
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: batting average five point twenty two o ps. So Martinez
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: has been pretty good against the Brewers. So we're looking
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: at the Brewers being about a minus one thirty five
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: favorite here on the road. Even though we don't even
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: know who their starter is gonna be and they might
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: be going with a bullpen game, we know that their
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: starters tend to be pretty good. Though. If they're gonna
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: throw Logan Henderson in there, he's pretty good. So I
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: would say I can't really give out a play on
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: this right now, but I would say Milwaukee is not
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: gonna go with one of their like usual starters, like
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: if it's not Missierowski, who I think is hurt right now,
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: or Henderson or Tobias Myers or who else did they
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: even have? I don't know. Basically, those are the three
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: guys that I can think of right now that might
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: get the call in this game. If it's not one
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: of those guys, because I think those guys are all good,
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: If it's somebody else, I might say that you could
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: take a shot with Cincinnati first five innings on the
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: money line here, go with Nick Martinez having a good
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: matchup history against Milwaukee and grab them as the underdog
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: price there. That's probably the lean that I would have
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: in that game. Yeah, Baseball it's tricky. I mean I
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: just jump right into these games and just kind of
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: talk about them as if people already know, but sometimes
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: they don't, so on it. I don't know if I
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: have to do like a money line betting one on one.
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: I do have a betting one on one video the
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: first video I ever did on this channel where I
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: did kind of talk about how the money lines works.
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: You could go back and watch that, but maybe you
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: pick up enough information just by watching me talk about
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: baseball day to kind of figure it out. Zach, what's
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: up man? Yeah? The Royals, the Royals, I mean, we'll
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: talk about them. In a little bit. They at least
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: have their best starter on the mound today. Philadelphia at
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: Washington unfortunately lost the game yesterday. With Philadelphia, they were
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: winning the game two to one. I was like, all right,
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: if they just get another run home, we're gonna get this.
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: But instead their bullpen blew the game and some of
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia did not beat Washington's bullpen makes no sense. Washington
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: still is the way worst of these two bullpens, even
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: though Philadelphia's isn't even good. Washington's is the worst of
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: the worst of the two bullpens. Philadelphia's is actually still
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: more rested even after yesterday as well. So Philadelphia definitely
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: has the bullpen edge. They have the better offense as well,
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: and they have the better starter as well. So Philadelphia
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: does check all the boxes in this game at the
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: very least. So then it kind of comes down to price,
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: and you know, Philadelphia is gonna be a big price
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: on them on the road. Here as a favorite, Zach
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: Wheeler pitching for the Phillies here really good on the season.
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: Two point six eighty point nine to three whip basically
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: an elite whip under one. For the entire season, he's
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: been a little bit worse on the road. Three point
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: two to four eras still not bad. I mean, he's
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: continuing to pretty much deal it. He had a little
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: bit of a stretcher. He wasn't as good during July.
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, he gave up four runs against San Diego
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: and the Yankees, both on the road. But again, he
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: is on the road here too, but Yankees especially, I mean,
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: there's no shame in giving up some runs there. He's
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: still had a good strikeout walk ratio in those two starts,
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: so he's still chugging along. He's good. I don't expect
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: Wheeler to ever really completely fall out a form or
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: anything like that. This month, he has a seventeen to
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: three strikeout walk ratio. Even those ERA four point h
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: nine could be better. But he's gotten tagged for some
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: home runs this month, three in one game against Detroit,
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: even though he also had ten strikeouts in that game.
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying that Wheeler is at all out of
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: form right now. I don't think he is. Washington's offense
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: isn't that great. Wheeler's been fine against them, of though
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: he's given up too much power. Again, the home run
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: kind of been a concern for him. Here one hundred
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: and fifty seven at bats. He has a really good
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: forty five to seven strike out walker ratio against him
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: two thirty six average allowed seven to sixty three ops
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: is a little bit high though, because he's allowed nine
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: home runs to them, four of them to Josh Bell.
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: Bell could definitely crank it out of the yard. I mean,
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: if you want look for player props there, Bell is
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: good against him fifteen to fifty one with a couple
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: of doubles and three walks, and there as well. Twelve
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: k's as well in there. But overall, I still think
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: Wheelers should come out and pitch well here up against
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: Mackenzie Gore, who's been a roller coaster this season. Four
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: point zero nine e rra one point three to three
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: whip for Washington, he is worse at home four point
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: eight e arra. At home, he was on a really
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: really bad stretcher. He gave up six or more earned
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: runs and three of four starts Washington lost all four
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: of those starts, and then he bounced back with a
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: really nice six inning shutout last time out against the
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: Giants with ten strikeouts. Giants are a terrible offense, though,
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: so Philadelphia has a big time step up offensively, Man,
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: So Philadelphia may be able to get to Gore a
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: bit more here because they're way better offense. Obviously, Gore
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: has mediocre numbers against them in the past one hundred
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: and eighty eight at bats fifty six to fifteen strikeout
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. He's allowed eight bombs to Philadelphia. No Philadelphia
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: hitter really actually just trait tarner I guess is a
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: good average against Hi nine for twenty two, no home runs,
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: but none of the Philly hitters that have hit him
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: hit home runs against him have a really really good
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: average against him. Really. Castellanos is seven for twenty five
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: with a couple of home runs, two fifty five average
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: overall for Philadelphia against Gore seven to twenty nine oh
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: ps is actually not that high, so Gore actually has
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: the slightly better matchup numbers to some extent here, although
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: still more walks to you because Gore one of his
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: problems is he walks too many guys, man. But it
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: is looking like Philadelphia is a public road favorite up
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: to minus one eighty from minus one sixty five. Eighty
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: five percent of tickets only seventy three percent of the
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: cash on them, so it looks like the actual money
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: is coming in and taking Washington one of those home
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: hunderdogs here. I wouldn't recommend it. I would still give
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: the edge to Wheelers slightly in the starting pitching matchup here,
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: just looking at what they've done recently and basically all season.
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: But I do think maybe it's too much of a
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: price to lay with Philadelphia here, So it's definitely not
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: gonna be again. I'm gonna recommend a play on. It
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: looks like some of the money maybe coming in on
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: the under of sixty six percent tickets on the over
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: fifty percent of the cash evenly split. I wouldn't really
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: recommend that either. I mean, I just don't really trust
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: Gore that much right now. Philly could potentially have scored
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: some runs here. Philly, by the way, taking a third
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: straight loss here, I think they've only lost three games
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: in a row once this entire season, and it was
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: way early in the season, which was another reason why
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: I thought they would come out and play well yesterday,
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: because they had scored one run over the previous two
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: games and gotten just embarrassed. So I thought they were
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: gonna show up yesterday, and it still didn't happen. Texas
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: Toronto will be a best bet at the end of
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: the show, as you can see in my preview here,
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: and the market is tough to read in that one,
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: but I'm reading my situational handy cap on that one.
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: Atlanta at Cleveland, this is kind of a weird one, man.
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: Both of these teams played yesterday. Cleveland beat Miami, and
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: Cleveland was losing that game in the middle of the game,
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: and I think I said I leaned to Miami first
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: five innings in that game yesterday, but Miami actually blew
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: that lead, I think in the bottom of the fifth,
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: so I think they actually lost that too, and then
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: Cleveland wound up winning the game, padding their lead late.
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: Cleveland is staying at home Cleveland, I mean crazy enough.
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: Cleveland is still in the mix to try to get
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: into the playoffs, man, which is crazy. Whereas I forgot
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: to mention Washington is definitely out of it in Philadelphia
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: is still at least playing for playoff positioning, but Philadelphia
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: has so much of a padding right now they might
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: not care as much. Atlanta's definitely out of it. Cleveland
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: playing with some urgency right now. They're actually trying to
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: make the playoffs. Here, which is crazy staying at home again.
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: Like I said, Atlanta actually just beat the Mets, so
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: Atlanta could be in a little bit of a letdown spot.
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: Atlanta's playing pretty well right now, even though it looked
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: like they might have packed it in on the season.
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: I think they've kind of gotten pass that bad mental
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: state and now they're just focusing on playing some baseball.
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: But they could be in a let down spot here.
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: They're traveling in from New York. Beating the Mets is
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: a pretty big deal, man, I mean the Mets, even
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: though the Mets have been playing really ass baseball for
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: a while, and the Mets have been playing really poorly,
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: but Atlanta I would have vent and beating one of
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: the better teams in their division. I think that's a
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: big thing for them. So it could be a little
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: bit of a let down spot for Atlanta coming into
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: this one. As far as the bullpen used it here,
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: Atlanta used only two relievers yesterday, so their bullpend pretty clean. Here.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: Cleveland only used. Cleveland used four of theirs, but they
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: only use Smith for five pitches, so he's probably available
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: if they want to use him again. Cleveland has the
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: better of the two bullpens. I would say Atlanta has
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: the better offense, though Cleveland's offense stinks so but Cleveland's
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: bullpen a little bit more used up, so maybe Cleveland
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: the you know, it starts tilting a little bit towards
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: atlantas slightly as far as the matchup here, and I
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: probably would give Atlanta the edge and the starting pitching matchup,
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: but it's a little bit hard to handicap. Hurston wald Rep,
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: who's a young pitcher for the Braves, who I think
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: this is his rookie season, where last season he made
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: two starts, which weren't good. But you don't really consider
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: anything to be a rookie season until a guy's thrown
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: enough innings, so I don't think that's even gonna happen
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: this year as well. But Waldrop is a young guy
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: for the Braves. I wasn't really impressed by his numbers
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: in Triple A this year man, and his numbers last
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: year were really bad. But maybe he's starting to find something.
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: He's a young guy, and all you know, all of
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: a sudden, these guys, if they're actually good, they can
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: start turning it on. He's got a one point five
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: to four e point eighty six whip and has wins
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: in both of his starts. So far, He's only allowed
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: touring runs at eleven and two thirds innings, ten strikeouts,
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: three walks. He is off to a good start here
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: this season. He's pitching well. It was both starts at
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: home against Cincinnati and Miami though, so not the greatest
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: offenses here, But Cleveland is a bad offense, so he's
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: not really having a step up in class to face
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: Cleveland's offense here. So Waldrop might continue to do well here,
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: and Cleveland has never faced him before, I don't believe so. Yeah,
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: so Waldrop. Some of these young pitchers man when they're
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: unfamiliar completely to the opposing hitters, they can have a
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: little bit of an edge in that respect too. So
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: I think Waldrop does have that unfamiliarity ed year going
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: up against Cleveland. Cleveland's got Joey Cantillo starting, who was
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: in the bult end for a lot of this year.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: He's been in the starting rotation for a while recently,
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: and his numbers are a mixed bag. Four point one
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: to one ERA one point four whip is definitely not good.
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: He is worse at home five point two to six
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: the ra at home. Good start last time out against
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: the White Sox gave him one on in Ronald, though
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: he had a three to two strike a walk ratio,
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: which isn't that good. He has walked multiple guys in
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: every start going all the way back through the beginning
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: of July, except for one start, which was also against
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: the White Sox. So when he's not facing the White Sox,
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: he's not really doing quite as well. Man. He's faced
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: a string of really bad offenses in his last five starts,
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: White Sox, twice, Royals, Baltimore, and the Twins. I mean,
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: he's not facing elite offenses year, and he's pitching kind
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: of mediocre, even though I think kat TiO does have
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: decent strikeout stuff, but he walks too many guys. He's
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: a little bit wild. I'm not really ready to say
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: that I have a lot of faith in him right now.
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: Atlanta's never seen him before, so Cantino might have a
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: little bit of an edge against Atlanta just because they
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: haven't seen him before. But I think I lean to
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: Atlanta in this game. Man. I actually think Waldrop, looking
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: at what he's done so far this year, I think
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: he's the better pitcher right now, man, even though Atlanta
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: could be in a little bit of a letdown spot,
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: which is why I don't quite want to do it,
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: but the money seems to be agreeing with the Atlanta
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: side pretty significantly. Cleveland down for minus one to fifteen
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: to minus one eleven, sixty four percent of tickets on them,
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: seventy five percent of the cash coming in on the Braves,
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: the money coming in on the Braves since the Braves
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: kind of turned the corner as well. Again, I'm worried
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: about it being a let down spot after the Mets series,
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: and Cleveland does have reason to be motivated here, but
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: I think with the starting pitching matchup, it kind of
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: makes sense to lean towards Atlanta. I think Atlanta, with
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: their bullpend being a little bit more rested, maybe that
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: kind of evens out the bullpens. You could do first
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: five innings Atlanta as well, if you just want to
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: focus on the starting pitching matchup. Probably would get a
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: slightly worse line on that though, And money seems to
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: be somewhat on the under in this game as well.
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: Eighty percent of the tickets on the over and fifty
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: five percent of the cash on the over probably would
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: lean to maybe well, I don't know, because Cleveland's bullpen
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: is not that bad. I mean, I could see maybe
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: slightly leaning into the under, maybe a first five inning under.
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: I just don't know if we could necessarily trust either
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: starter or enough to get us to that under either though,
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: So we'll see what happens. Miami at Boston. Neither of
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: these teams played yesterday, and no, Miami did play yesterday, right,
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: they played against Cleveland. I just said that, so Miami
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: actually is unrested, and I should know this because I
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: handicapped this game earlier. Both these teams are actually kind
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: of bad spots. Miami traveling in from Cleveland with no rest,
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: and the Red Sox do have rest, but they're returning
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: from a trip that took them to San Diego and Houston.
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: So the Red Sox are returning on from a road
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: trip and playing a pretty bad Miami team in an
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: inter league game. So when a team returns on from
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: a road trip, they could be a little bit distracted.
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: Here man not the greatest spot for the Red Sox,
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: even though usually I will look to play on teams
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: that have the rest advantage. Here against a team that
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: played yesterday, that is a decent way to look in
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: Major League Baseball. But when it's a return home spot,
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: I think that kind of negates the whole thing. So
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: it's a bad spot really for both teams here. The
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: Red Sox do have the better offense, They do have
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen. Their bullpen is the more rested of
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: the two bullpens. I think Miami didn't use a whole
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: lot of their bullpen yesterday. No, they used basically Baozo
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: was in there for a lot of the game, and
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: he's kind of a long relief man, so that's all
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: they really did yesterday and then used one other reliever
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: for seven pitches. Starting pitching match up here. Sandy Alcantra
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: pitching for Miami. I mean, he has been definitely struggling
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: for pretty much multiple seasons now, since he has not
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: been able to bounce back from his Tommy Johns surgeries
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: and whatever. Six point five to five y one point
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: four or five whip not good. He's been really bad
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: on the road eight point eight seven y r on
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: the road this month. He's been bad, giving up eleven
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: earned runs and twelve innings across two starts. Very very bad.
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: After he had a couple of decent starts to end July.
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: This month has not been good. Eight point two five VR,
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: nine to five strike a walk ratio, allowing five or
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: more runs in each start. Bad stuff against the Red Sox.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: They haven't seen a whole lot of them. They've hit
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: him okay in eighteen at bats two seventy eight average,
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: nine oh six obs. The hilarious thing is, though, the
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: one home run the Red Sox have against him was
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: from Steven Motts, who is a relief pitcher that the
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: Red Sox traded for at the trade deadline. I don't
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: know how that even happened, but he has a home
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: run against al Contra. I yeah, I don't know. I
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: don't understand how that's even possible, but very very strange.
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: You almost never see a relief pitcher having a home
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: run at all, so that's insane. But I'm not ready
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: to say that Alcondra is gonna pitch well in this game.
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: Lucas Gilito pitching for the Red Sox three point seven
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: to seven y R. One point two to five whip.
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: He was pitching really, really poorly when he first started
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: pitching this season, especially at Fenway. He was really really bad,
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: but then he turned a corner and started pitching really well.
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: I think the coaches kind of found something in his
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: delivery that wasn't the same as what it used to be,
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: so they kind of fixed him. His ERA is still
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: not as good at home four point one five ERA,
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: so I don't really trust gi Alito at home. And
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: after he was on a decent run, he's actually been
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: pretty bad over his last. Three of his last five
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: starts have been bad. Three of his last five starts
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: he's allowed four more in runs. They were all on
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: the road, though, so he is actually worse on the
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: road recently. He's made a lot of road starts recently,
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: and those were against the Cubs, Philadelphia, San Diego, so
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: those were all against good teams. Against San Diego they're
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: not really as good of an offense though, and he
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: walked six guys against San Diego, which is pretty unacceptable.
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: So right now he's not in very good forum. Man.
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: His walk rate has gone up, but it is just
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: that one bad starts. Will he bounce back here against
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: a pretty bad Miami offense, I don't know. I mean,
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: Miami's not a great offense. Only Derek Hill has ever
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: seen to move on, and he's one for three with
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: a single and a strike out against him. So Gilito
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: does have a little bit of an unfamiliarity edge here.
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: But the Red Sox, you know you're gonna be laying
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: a price with them at home. I mean, they're obviously
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: the better team. I probably give them the starting pitching
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: edge of this game too, so they do have the
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: edge across the board, but it's a bad spot for them.
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: The money is actually fading the Red Sox. They're down
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: for minus one to sixty five to minus one fifty five,
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: eighty seven percent of tickets, seventy nine percent of the cash,
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: so eighty seven percent of tickets, excuse me, seventy nine
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash. So the cash percent just fading
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: a public Red Sox team here. Miami is still unrested, though,
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: so I don't really want to deal with Miami either
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: in this game. It's why I'm not giving out a
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: play on this game. I don't really even have a
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: lien on this game necessarily though. Again, the money is
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: saying to take Miami as the underdog. I'm still not
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: quite sure that I really necessarily love that though, And
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox are still playing to make the playoffs here, man,
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: they want to make sure that they make the playoffs
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: at this point, so Miami is pretty much out of it.
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: So the Red Sox is do a little bit of
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: a motivational edge here in some aspects of this game.
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: Seattle at the Mets. I believe both these teams played yesterday,
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: but they're changing series. The Mets are staying at home
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: after losing to Atlanta, which is fairly embarrassing. The Mets
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: have been playing awful baseball recently.
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: The Mets have lost so many recent games, have only
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: won one game going all the way back to whenever
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: the hell they were playing San Francisco last and they
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: lost four games prior to that too, so they've lost
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: like thirteen of the last fifteen games or something like that.
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: The Mets are playing horrendous baseball right now, and they
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: did play yesterday. Seattle also did. Seattle played Baltimore and
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: they lost, So Seattle a change of venue might help
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: Seattle here because they probably weren't paying that much attention
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: to Baltimore. Baltimore took the last two games, and that
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: was kind of a hangover spot for Seattle because they
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: had lost a long win streak that they had. Seattle
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: had won I don't know, eight to nine games in
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: a row, something like that, and then they lost a
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: game to Baltimore. When that happens, you lose that win streak,
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: it can hang you over a little bit. So I
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: think that hangover spot kind of took effect yesterday and
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: now I think they might bounce back a little bit.
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: Seattle they do have the better I'll give them the
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: bullpen edge in this matchup against the Mets. The Mets
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: bullpen has been struggling a bit, as you can see here.
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: They've dropped down a little bit. It's close, though, and
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: I'll give them Mets a slight offensive edge over Seattle
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: in this game, which is a see Seattle thirteenth year.
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: Mets are eleventh and a bullpen era on. The Mariners
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: are eighth in baseball and Mets are eleventh, So really
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: really slight edges there for each team to kind of
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: balance each other out there. Starting pitching matchup kind of
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: interesting here. Oh, we have to look at the bullpen
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: not rest scenario as well, though I guess getting way
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: too autistic here. Man Seattle used four relief pitchers yesterday. Again,
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna stop handicapping every baseball game once I have
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: to do football as well, probably, so I'm gonna may
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: have to tread a little bit more lightly. The Mets
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: use less of their bullpen. The Mets actually have the
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: more rested bullpen here, which might kind of even out
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: the bullpen scenario. But Luis cass Stello is pitching for
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: Seattle three point one to nine e RAM, one point
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: one to nine WHIP. He has good numbers on the season.
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: He is worse on the road four point three to
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: one ERA. Pretty much all Seattle pitchers are worse on
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: the road to Seattle. You can definitely fade them on
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: the road more easily than you can at home. Castillo
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: hasn't allowed more than three in runs and then he
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: start going all the way back into June. So he
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: is pitching pretty well recently. Has a nine to one
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: strike a walk racer two starts this month, even though
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: he failed to go five innings against Texas, was just
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: very inefficient pitch wise. There went seven innings a long
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: touring runs both on solo home runs against Tampa last time.
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: Pretty good start for him. Now he's going up against
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: who the hell are you talking about? I always forget
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: the Mets, right, the Mets a little bit of a
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: step up in class here facing the Mets offense, Castillo
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: mediocre numbers against them at best in eighty three at bats,
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: twenty to thirteen strike a walk ratio is not good.
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: Two sixty five averages to that bad, but eight thirty
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: four oh ps is definitely high. So Castillo not exactly
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: great against the Mets. He's going up against Sean and
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: I for the Mets a four point three to three ERA,
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: one point one to one whip. His ERA is skyrocketed
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: over the last two starts because he hasn't pitched that
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: much yet. He's very similar Home in a way. So
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: far it doesn't really matter. But he came back from
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: injury and he had a very late start to the season,
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: and all of his starts in July were pretty good.
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: He was ramping up his pitch count. He allowed one
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: and run in every single start in July, which was
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: fairly good. Had a good strikeout rate, low walk rate,
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: and that does continue this month, even though he's allowed
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: nine earned runs and nine to two thirds innings against
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: Cleveland and Milwaukee. Cleveland not a good offense. Milwaukee is
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: but he struggled in both starts. Did still have an
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: eight to two strikeout walk ratio though, so I guess
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: try to take from all that what you will. But
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: he did give up too many hard hits. Usually Mania's
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: problem is walks, but if the walks haven't been a concern,
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: he just gave up too many hits. But still he's
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: pretty out of form over his last two starts, so
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: he's not pitching as well right now going up against Seattle.
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: Here against Seattle, he actually has been pretty good in
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: his career in eighty five at bats twenty six to
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: nine strike a walk race year to twenty four batting
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: averaging five ninety two obs. So Sean Mania has actually
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: pitched pretty well against Seattle in the past. So I
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: think the Mets do actually have a starting pitching edge
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: in this game, even though I thought they had a
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: starting pitching edge with Senga on the mound two and
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: that didn't happen. Senga really really walk promo. Manaya has
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: at least been pitching somewhat better than Senga as far
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: as his walk numbers being way lower. Seattle's a public
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: road favor in here or public road underdog here. Man,
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: excuse me, So you have an anti public home favorite
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: in the Mets. That does tend to be the way
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: you want to look. So I would slightly lean in
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: the Mets here. You could go first five innings if
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: you just want to focus on the starting pitching matchup.
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: I know you're fading a very bad Mets team, which
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: is why the public wants Seattle, because Seattle was really
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: hot until their last two starts fifty two or two games,
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: I should say, fifty two percent of tickets only fifty
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: one percent under the cash on Seattle Mets down for
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty to minus one seventeen. You're getting a
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: pretty cheap price on the Mets here as a home team, man,
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: So you can definitely more easily fade Seattle's pitchers on
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: the road. I think Mania does have the matchup edge here.
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: If you want to focus just on the starting pitching,
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: you could do Mets first five inning as well. I
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: wouldn't really disagree with that, So that's kind of the
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: way that I look. And the totals flipped from eight
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: and a half juice to the under the juice to
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: the over eighty percent of tickets ninety one percent of
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over, so the money's coming in
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: on the over in that game as well. I don't
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: know if I could quite see that. I mean, I
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: think both starting pitchers could potentially do okay in this game,
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: So I don't quite see that I would be leaning
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: to the Mets in some way or way in that game,
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: some way or reform in that game. Andrew, what's up man?
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: Democracy The God That Failed? Yeah, check that out on
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: the No Way Jose Show. We're doing a live reading
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: that's been going on for probably two or three years now,
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: getting through Democracy The God That Failed, Hans Herman Happa's
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: epic anarchical capitalist treatise basically where it will blow in
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: your mind in my opinion, the first time you hear
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: his arguments, where he basically just destroys democracy by comparing
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: it to monarchy and explaining how monarchy is actually preferable
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: to democracy. Even though it's still not good, it's a
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: wild read, man, It's good. We're about to finish that book. Finally,
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: we have probably two more episodes to go. We did
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: an episode last night. I don't know if that was
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: released yet or if you're watching the previous one, but yeah,
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: definitely check it out. Andrew, thanks for thanks for the support, man,
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: thanks for watching all our stuff. Baltimore at Houston here,
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: Houston's coming off a big series, a couple of big
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: series against the Yankees and the Red Sox where they
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: won both series. So Houston could potentially be in a
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: little bit of a letdown spot here, man against a
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: bad Baltimore team coming in. Maybe Houston won't be totally
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: focused on Baltimore here. Houston does still want to maintain
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: their lead over Seattle in the division though. I mean,
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: Houston certainly does still have something to play for as
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: far as the playoffs are concerned. Baltimore does not. Baltimore
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: is coming in against off of playing Seattle. Baltimore played
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: yesterday and they're traveling. Houston did not play yesterday, So
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: Houston has a rest edge here. So even though Houston
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: they're in a letdown spot, but they are at rest disadvantage.
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: You got to take all that into account. Baltimore did
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: beat Seattle twice, so Houston is probably thanking them right
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: now too for helping them out in their divisional lead. There.
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: Baltimore is starting a road trip with a little bit
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: of momentum too, though, so Baltimore might actually show up
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: in this game as well. Houston definitely has a better bullpen.
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're the more rested bullpen, and Baltimore used
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: four relief pitchers yesterday, is already the worst of the
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: two bullpens. So Houston definitely has a bullpen edge. I'm
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: probably gonna give Houston the offensive edge in this game
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: as well. Houston basically has the edge across the board.
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna give them the starting pitching edge too, but
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: you're gonna have to lay a huge price if you
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: want Houston here and then being in a little bit
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: of a potential letdown spot, I don't think I would
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: want to be touching Houston here. Brandon Young he was
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: pitching for Baltimore. He is still fairly young with I
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: think he's had kind of a late start to his
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: MLB career due to some injuries. He does have decent
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: stuff and has shown glimpses of been good, but his
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: overall numbers are certainly not six point seventy RA one
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: point seven to four WHIP. He is better on the
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: road though, four point five R in the road four
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: point five to eight, so that's significantly better. He's coming
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: up a really ugly start at home against the A's
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: give up six earned runs. That's not good. Was a
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: little bit better in his last two starts against decent
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: offenses in Toronto and the Cubs, especially, allowing only two
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: earned runs across ten and two thirds innings in those starts. Actually, yeah,
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: twourn runs because he allowed zero earned runs to Chicago
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: even though they got two un earned runs. He was
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: out of that game before the fifth inning was over,
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: so he didn't go that deep into that game. He
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: is failing to go deep in a lot of games,
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: which is a problem. He hasn't made it five innings
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: and four of his last five starts, so he's not
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: going deep into these starts. And Baltimore did lose every
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: one of those starts as well, so he is struggling
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: to some extent. Up against Houston. Only Jesus Sanchez has
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: ever seen him before, and he's won for three with
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: a double on a strikeout, so Young is pretty unfamiliar
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: to Houston. But he's pitching poorly enough that I don't
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: even know if that's gonna help him that much. As
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: far as him being unfamiliar to the opposing hitters probably
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: won't help him that much. He is going up against
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: from ber Valdez definitely has good stuff. Man has good
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: numbers on the season, two point nine to seven ERA,
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: one point one six WHIP. He's been good. He's been
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: really good at home one point six y five ERA
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: at home. Struggled a bit in his last two starts
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: on and I think he kind of got derailed after
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: Houston had won like twelve or thirteen starts in a
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: row for him and then they lost to start where
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: he still did really well. Against Washington, he gave up
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: one ear and run and they still lost the game
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: because they only scored one run for him. After that, though,
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: he got a little bit derailed, and he had a
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: couple of bad starts against the Red Sox and the
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: Yankees had more walks than strikeouts over that span five
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: walks for strikeouts, give up nine or runs combined eleven
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: to two thirds innings four or more in runs and
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: each start. But those are both on the road against
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox and the Yankees. Those are two good offenses,
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: So maybe you give him a little bit of a pass.
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: I don't know exactly what happened in the Yankees game,
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: but I know in the Red Sox game, all of
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: the runs scored in one inning. They're just kind of
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: unraveled because of an error that happened in the inning.
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: They just couldn't get out of the inning. So in
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: a way, he wasn't that bad in that start against
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: the Yankees. He did walk way too many guys, though,
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: so Valdez may have fallen out of for him a
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: little bit here, But he's he's so good that I
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: think he can bounce back at like any time. Really,
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: He's been so good pretty much the entire season, and
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: he is stepping way down in class after those two
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: good offenses to face a pretty bad Baltimore offense. But
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: Baltimore actually does a lot of damage to him in
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: the past, and fifty at bats fourteen to two strike
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio is good for Valdez, but three eighty
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: average allowed in one thousand and four to OHPS. The
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: Valdez actually has bad matchup numbers here, So this game
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't want to touch man. I mean, the money's
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: coming in on the under, which is strange because if
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: you think Valdez might struggle in this game, the under
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: seems a little bit odd because Valdez has bad numbers
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: against Baltimore. Young is just pretty much bad, and most
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: of the starts fifty eight percent of tickets and ninety
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the couch on the under, with the
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: total dropping from eight juice to the over to eight
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: juice to the under. You're not gonna find me touching
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: an under in that game. Man. I would probably slightly
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: lean to a first five inning over, expecting maybe both
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: starting pitchers might actually not do that well in this game. Houston,
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: I don't think you could play Houston in this game either, though.
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: I mean I think there might maybe in a little
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: bit of a letdown spot, even though they do have
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: the rest advantage. They're down for minus two twenty to
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: minus two to ten, seventy nine percent of tickets, only
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: fifty four percent of the cash on them, and after
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: coming off two big series wins like that, that rest
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: might not even help Houston because you kind of take
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: that day off and you kind of start like basking
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: in it, like, yeah, we just beat the Red Sox
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: and the Yankees. Man, hell yeah, you know, so they
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: might that might that rest might actually not be that
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: helpful to them in this case. So the money is
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: coming in fading use and grabbing Baltimore at a giant
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: underdog price. Again, that's not gonna be a game. We're
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: gonna have anything on, Zach. You're a team up here.
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City. These two teams were
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: off yesterday. Kansas City is not traveling. They're staying at
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: home off of losing their last game to Washington White
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: Sox traveling after playing Detroit, the White Sox starting a
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: road trip. You do tend to be focused when you
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: start a road trip, so it's a bit of a
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: focused spot, maybe even for both teams. I would say
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: it's a bit of a focus spot here. Chicago's starting
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: the road trip off of lost Kansas City staying at
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: home off a lost Kansas City one game below five
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: hundred now is a little bit of extra motivator to
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: even that. They probably realized they're not going to make
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: the playoffs at this point. Kansas City has the better bullpen,
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: and the White Sox offense is so bad that Kansas
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: City also has the better offense. Even though Kansas City's
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: offense is very, very weak, they still have a better
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: offense than Chicago. Here. Aaron Savali is pitching for the
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: White Sox, he's been very mediocre four point nine one
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: point three to four whip. He is better on the
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: road three point eight to ninety ray on the road,
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: and Kansas City is a pitcher friendly park. Here, Savally
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: was on a nice run where he'd allowed no earned
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: runs and three straight starts against Pittsburgh, who suck, but
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: then the Cubs and then Anaheim. So he had three
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: really good starts there for the most part, and Anaheim's
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: at least a decent offense, and the Cubs are obviously good.
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: But he completely unraveled in his last start. Give him
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: nine earned runs and three and a third to Cleveland.
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: Very very bad start for him on eight hits and
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: two walks, So it's kind of crazy that nine runs
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: scored off him in that game was like every base runner.
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: I mean, he put way too many guys on base,
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: for sure, but all of them mod up scoring too,
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: So the start wound up looking even worse than it
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: actually probably was. He still has a fourteen to four
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: strike a walk race here this month, so it's not
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: all bad for Savali. And I don't know if this
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: is gonna be sort of him going into like bad
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: form right now or if he's gonna immediately bounce back.
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: It's very difficult to say here, but it is a
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: Kansas City offense that isn't very good, which might help
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: him bounce back a little bit. And he's been good
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: against them in the past in ninety seven at bats,
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: twenty to seven strike at walker ratio one sixty five
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: average allowed five to sixty one ohps. So Savali has
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: been pretty good against him in the past, and he's
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: going up against the rookie Noah Cameron for the Royals,
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: who is having a good season. I think he's a rookie, right, Yeah,
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: Sometimes they say rookie even though a guy pitched last year,
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: but because I don't even remember the pitching last year
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: because they didn't pitch that much. But Noah Cameron's been
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: really good this year. Two point five two ERRA, one
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: point zero three whip. He's Kansas City's best starter man,
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: even though he's a rookie. He's been a little bit
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: worse at home two point nine to three ERA, which
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: is still good. Two starts to goes a little bit
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: bad against Toronto. Gave it four and runs, had only
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: one strikeout in one walk. A little bit of a
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: blip there. I mean it was on the road against
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: a pretty good offense though, But overall he's pitching pretty well.
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, his worst starts have all been against good offenses.
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: Toronto on the road, Cubs on the road, Dodge at home,
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: and Yankees at home, or the starts where he's a lot.
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: Those are the only starts he's allowed more than two
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: hour runs, I believe, so all of his other starts
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: he's allowed two or fewer earned runs, including last time out,
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: shutting out Minnesota for five and two thirds, did walk
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: to guys four strike cuts, doesn't have a great strikeout
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. He's not really a huge strikeout guy, but
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: he's not allowing a lot of hits. He's not really
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: allowing a lot of walks either, So he is pitching well.
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: And the White Sox haven't actually seen him before except
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: me is one for three often, but other than that,
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: they haven't seen him before. So Cameron good pitcher probably
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: has a matchup edge. I think he has a matchup
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: bedge over Savali, so Kansas City does have a matchup
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: beedge across the board here, but I think he has
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: a matchup edge against the White Sox offense. The money's
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: coming in against Kansas City, though they're down for minus
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: one eighty three to minus one sixty eight, eighty four
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, only seventy three percent of the cash. Again,
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: I think some of it is because the price tag
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: is too high on Kansas City. It's not necessarily the
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: professional better saying we think the White Socks are definitely
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: gonna win this game. It's more that we don't think
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: Kansas City should be favored by this much. If I
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: was going to attack this game, I think it would
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: be the under. This total seems really really high to me.
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: It's down from nine to juiced to the over. It
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: minus won twenty to minus one twelve, now seventy nine
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: percent to take. It's ninety eight percent of the cash
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: on the under. Looks like maybe the public coming in
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: on the under as well. But you got rested bullpens here,
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: even though I know the White Sox bullpen isn't that good.
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: Two pretty pathetic offenses and two pitchers that match up
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: well against these offenses. So I think the under does
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: make sense here if you want to avoid the White
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: Sox bullpend because it is bad. They're at least rested, though,
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: But you could go first five innings under as well.
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: It seems like it's continuing to go under. If you
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: want to go under full game, you gotta get an
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: under nine, man, because it is a key number. I'm
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: actually tempted to give that out as a play. That's
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: close to a play for me. I would be an
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: under in White Sox Kansas City here. I think it's
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: it's a decent way to look. I'm I'm tempting, Man,
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: should I do? Ito? Sevali? I mean, I'm just worried
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: about Ali's last start being so so atrocious, and it
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: wasn't against a good offense either, so I am worried
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: about that. It was against Cleveland, right, Yeah, so I'll
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: stay away, but I think the under makes a lot
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: of sense in that game Detroit at Minnesota. Man, this
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: is gonna be a long video. Minnesota lost the first
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: game of the series four to three yesterday, I think
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: in extra innings as well. Yeah, I went eleven innings yesterday,
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: So yeah, Minnesota had a chance to beat Detroit, who
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: is the top team in their division, and blew it.
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: So that might hang Minnesota over a little bit into
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: this game. Detroit does have the better bullpen pretty significantly,
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: so I would say Minnesota used more of the bullpen
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: yesterday too, so Detroit definitely has a bullpen edge. Detroit
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: has the offensive edge as well, even though they were
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: a little bit. They're definitely better at home than on
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: the road. Minnesota, I think is better at home than
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: on the road as well. So Minnesota at least does
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: have a home advantage here. And starting pitching, I mean,
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: I guess you could kind of debate maybe that Minnesota
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: as a starting pitching Edgela, I'm gonna still say they don't.
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: But Detroit has Charlie Morton pitching. His numbers on the
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: season aren't good five point four to eighty RA one
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: point five to three whom. I mean, he's an old
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: guy now, but his season has been basically a tale
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: of two not a tale of two cities, a tale
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: of one shitty and a tale of one not so shitty.
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: As he was really really bad early in the season,
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: so bad that Baltimore, who had him back, then sent
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: him to their bullp and and then after that it
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: seemed like they just completely fixed him somehow. Since he
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: came back into the starting rotation for Baltimore, he actually
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: started pitching a lot better. And he's really only had
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: like one or two bad starts since then, so Morton
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: has actually been way better since then. He's a little
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: bit worse on the road. Five point eight ERA this year.
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: On the road, as I said, he was pitching better
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: except for one bad start at Tampa Bay, which is
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: a very hitter front of the park that's just bizarre.
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: And then he did have one other bad start, which
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: was his most recent start, where he inexplicably at home
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: gave up six or runs to Anaheim. But he had
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: ten strikeouts in the game still in only one walk,
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: four and a third innings pitch, so he's still actually
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: pitched pretty well. In that game, it seems pretty unlucky
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: that he gave up six ornred runs on seven hits
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: in one walk in that game. He was inefficient with
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: his pitches, but he gave up two of them runs,
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: so I think those must have been multiple run homers,
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: because to me, it looks like he got a little
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: bit unlucky there because his other start was really good
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: with Detroit. He went six innings, lying one in and
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: run on the road against Philadelphia, and Philadelphia is really
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: good at hitting, especially at home, so Morton, to me,
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: it seems like he is still pitching well. He has
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: a sixteen to two strike at walker ratio this month,
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: which is that shows me his command is right on
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: right now. So Morton, I don't know if I would
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: fade him right now. And his numbers against Minnesota, I mean,
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: they're kind of mediocre and twenty three at bats. It's
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: a small sample, two sixty one average allot eight forty
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: twelve ps. Almost all the damages coming from Buckston, though
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: He's three for six with a home run and a
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: triple off him in a couple of walks, So I
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: don't know if there's a whole lot to take away
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: from small sample size like that. I could still see
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: Morton potentially not doing well in any particular start. Though
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: Pearson Ole is gonna be pitching for the Twins. His
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: numbers are not good, his seven point one five yard
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: and one point five whip. He's a rookie. I forget
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: what the scouting looked like on him. I mentioned it
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: back when he made his first start, which I believe
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: was this one against the Red Sox, and he wasn't
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: particularly good in that start. He gave up four and
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: runs in that one. I think he made one more
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: start against Cleveland and then I think he came out
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: of the bulp and in his last couple of starts,
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: but one of those bum last couple of appearances, I mean,
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: but one of those was against this Detroit team, and
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: he got rocked in two and two thirds. He gave
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: up three home runs in that outing, four and runs,
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: so Detroit hammered him in that outing. So, oh, I'm
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: not ready to say that he's like good right now.
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: He might be good eventually. I mean, he's a young
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: guy that the Twins like, they think they're gonna be
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: able to develop him into like a decent starter. But
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: I think he doesn't have that many pitches in his
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: arsenal if I remember correct. I think he's mostly like fastball,
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: change up type of guy. But don't take my word
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: that I might have to go look something like that.
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: But his numbers against Detroit, of course stink, because it
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: was basically just that one outing. Eleven at bats, three
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: zero strikeout walk rat sho is good, but three home
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: runs that he allowed, like I said, three sixty four
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: average in one thousand and five forty five ohps. So
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: even though Ole was totally unfamiliar to Detroit. They rocked
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: him in that game, So I mean, to me, Detroit
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: does have the edge across the board here, but you know,
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: you have to lay a huge price with them on
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: the road here, which I would not be willing to do. Actually,
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: it's less than you think, because it's Charlie Morton. It's
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: down for minus one thirty three to minus one twenty six,
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: eighty three percent tickets, ninety two percent of the cash
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: on Detroit though, so the cash kind of looks like
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: it is coming in on the Detroit side here. I mean,
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: if I was gonna play this game, I probably would
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: actually go with the Detroit money line in that game,
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: because I do think they have the edge and all
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: the aspects of the game. But again, I mean, that's
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: not a play for me, and I really would not
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: have my money on Morton. Even though I've done it
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: a couple of times this year, I don't really want
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: to do it here. Same Lewis is facing the Yankees.
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis is staying at home after losing to the Rockies,
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: which is pretty embarrassing, so Saint Louis might want to
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: bounce back from that. Although the Yankees not playing particularly
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: well either, right now. They're coming on the loss of Minnesota,
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: starting a road trip with a day off. Both teams
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: said yesterday off, so the bullpen's arrested, but the Yankees
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: might be in a little bit more of a focus
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: spot here for that reason. Bullpend wise, Saint Louis has
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: the better bullpend, so they do have a bullpen edge.
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: Yankees bullpend notoriously has not been particularly good. Yankees obviously
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: have the better offense though, so pretty significant bullpen edge
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: for Saint Louis, but significant offensive edge for the Yankees.
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: And then we got to look at the starting pitching
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: here on this game, where the Yankees might still be
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: focused and maybe have more motivation here man too, because
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: the Yankees are in I think they're still in third
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: place in the Al East, so they need to make
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: sure they make the playoffs. Although I would love it
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: if they didn't. I think it would be hilarious if
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: they didn't, although I don't think that's gonna happen. I
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: think Toronto might actually be the worst of all three
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: of those teams. I think Toronto might be worse than
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox and the Yankees at this point. Yankees
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: and Luis Heel pitching who has been injured for most
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: of the season. He definitely showed signs of pitching pretty
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: well last year. I think he had a late start
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: to his major league career though, dealing with injuries and stuff.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: His thing has always been he has a lot of strikeouts,
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: but he pitches inefficiently and he walks way too many guys.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: This year's numbers don't look good obviously, seven point two
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: seven R, one point eight five whip really bound on
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: the road thirteen point five RA, but it's only one start.
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: He's only made two starts, one at home, one on
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: the road. His road start was his first start, which
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: wasn't I mean, it wasn't necessarily a good sign that
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: he walked for guys and gave a five earned runs
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: and three and a third to Miami. He was not
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: a good offense. Yeah, that's not a good sign. But
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: he hadn't pitched for a while now he's been injured,
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: so maybe he was a little bit shaky. He definitely
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: pitched better last time out against Houston, who was a
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: better offense than Miami. He went five and a third,
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: seven strikeouts, one walk, two eurned runs, So heel is
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: trending in the right direction insane. Lewis has never seen
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: him before, so I think heel does have the edge here,
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: so I would not be shocked if he pitches pretty
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: well in this game. I think the unfamiliarity edge will
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: help him out here against Saint Louis here because they'll
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: have to try to figure out what to do against him.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: Andre Polante pitching for the Cardinals. I think he's the
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: worst of these two starters. Man. I don't really trust him.
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: Four point nine to five VRA, one point three to
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: seven whip not good. He's worse at home five point
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: two to one ERA at home. His last outing was
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: really bad. He went one to two thirds. He gave
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: six earned runs against the Chicago Cubs, struck out nobody
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: one walk. I mean, yes, it's the Cubs. They're one
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: of the top offenses in baseball, but that's still a really,
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: really rough outing for Polante. Really bad. His previous start
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: he had three strike excuse me, three strikeouts and four walks.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: That wasn't good either. Last month he had a five
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: point one six ERA sixteen to eight strikeout walk ration
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: and Saint Louis has lost oh whatever, this is seven
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: of his last eight stars so Polonte, he's not pitching well.
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: The team isn't pitching well when he's on the mound. Surprisingly,
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: he has good numbers against the Yankees, though it's a
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: small nineteen at bat sample size one O five batting average,
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: a lot of four fifty four oh ps five ratio.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: So what's up, man, NDS? What's up? Guys? Holl are
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: you guys been in here? I'm not doing any attention.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 3: Man, thirty five minutes away. We've been here for a while.
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 3: You're crushing keeping on.
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: The couch, all right, sweet. Nobody even mentioned it in
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: the chat or anything.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 3: Man, oh man, they they're just listening. But keep going.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: I like your new setup. I want to I want
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: to sit there on the couch with us.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 3: Look, we got a lot of oh we got to
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 3: fix it out. We got to fix that angle.
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: Yes, let's let's do a podcast here.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: Absolutely, dude, we you know we have to do. We
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: have to get a chair right in the center for.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: Two animals, the three animals. Let's go. I'll move three animals. Yeah.
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: But as as top lobster just in time, because I'm
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: gonna say that I lean to the Yankees in this game.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: But the way as much as it as much as
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: I don't want to do it, I mean, I'm not
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: gonna give I'm not gonna give out a play on it.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: But I do think the Yankees are the right side
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: in this game. That they're rough for minus one twenty
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: five to minus one thirty one here sixty seven percent
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: of the tickets and seventy three percent of the cash
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: on them, So it looks like they are taking the
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: money and the money looks like it's coming in on
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: the under. After the total moved up to nine seventy
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: nine percent of tickets on the over ninety six percent
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: of the catch on the under. I would not want
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: to do that. I mean, I could see Heel potentially
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: doing a little bit rough in this game, Polante, I
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: definitely could see getting roughed up as well, and then
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: the bullpens have to come into the equation. Yeah, I
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: would not want to play an under in that game.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: But I think Yankees money line is probably the way
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: to play that game. Uh D backs Colorado all the
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: way to the end. Because I'm given out a play
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: on that, I guess what it is. After it worked
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: out so well for me yesterday, It's gonna be a
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: play for me in that one Anaheim at the A's here. Uh,
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: the A's. I think neither of these teams played yesterday, right,
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: If I'm not mistake, I gotta get my shit in
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: order here, man. Yeah, they were both off yesterday, so
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: we have two rested bullpens. Not that it really matters
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: with these bullpens. These bullpens are total ass. Uh the
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: A's bullpen especially, he's probably the worst in baseball as
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: coming off losing to Tampa Bay. The a suck at
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: home in this temporary stadium that they have to deal
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: with for three years, apparently in this Triple A state.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 3: M hm mhm uh he's breaking up.
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: Oh shit, what's happening here?
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 3: And you broke up a little bit's or I keep
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 3: going we're still here?
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: Oh no, I lost the internet. One Anaheim. You gotta
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: think Anaheim is gonna be inn a letdown spot here, man,
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: because they just completed a ridiculous season sweep of the Dodgers.
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: Anaheim won all six games against the Dodgers this year.
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: He's ridiculous. Now they're traveling, they're only traveling up the coast,
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: I mean to Sacramento, but they could be inn a
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: letdown spot off of this man. So it doesn't look
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: great for either team to be here, but it does
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: look like a spot for Anaheim at Both bullpens are
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: ass as. I already said the A's have the better
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: offense of the two. Pretty good offense. Actually, Anaheim's is
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: all right, you say. Kakuchi's pitching for Anaheim three point
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: three seven e R pretty good in the year, but
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: one point four to two whip pretty bad. So he's
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: just getting away with walking a ton of guys, man,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: which is something I don't like, and I'm like, fuck
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: this guy basic. I want to go against this guy more.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 3: Don't we're cleaning up the show. The language.
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: Oh, I'm not allowed to swear what it's my show.
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you what. I'm uh. Kakuchi, he's the type
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: of guy that I don't want to make a bet
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: on men. And on the road he's actually worse with
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: a four point five era, which has really been the
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: case throughout his career. He's been worse on the road.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: Anaheim's won three of his starts in a row, but
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: he's been a little bit of bad in those starts. Man.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: He gave up ten hits against Texas a few starts ago.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: That's not good. Last out, you give up four and
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: Texas is not a good offense. Last I would even
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: gave it four and runs against Detroit, which, yeah, I
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: mean Detroit on the road. I mean, I'll give him
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: a pass for that one. Detroit pretty good offense, especially
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: at home. But Kakuchi, I mean, he's not exactly in
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: the greatest forum right now. His walk number has gone
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: down a little bit over the last few starts, so
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: my concerns are kind of alleviated in that regard, But
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: I still don't think he's gonna do that well here,
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: although he has pretty much dominated this A's offense forty
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: four career of bats against, and they only have six hits,
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: eleven strikeouts, three walks, one thirty six batting average allowed,
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: three seventy three ohps. So I went into this game
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: looking like I wanted to fade Anaheim. I wanted to
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: fade Kakuchi on the road, but his matchup numbers are
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: good against the A, so I don't think I can
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: quite do that. And I don't know if i'd want
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: to put my money on Jack Perkins for the A's either.
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: His numbers are all right this year four point eight
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: and one point oh five whip. He's been really bad
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: in this home stadium though, seven point one five era here.
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: This stadium basically Rex pitchers, so that's not a good
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: sign for him. He was more mostly coming out of
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: the bullpend this season. He's made I think maybe two
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: or three starts, but they've started to ramp up his
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: pitch count, where his last outing he actually made it
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: pretty much a full star six innings, give up three
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: on runs to Baltimore, which is a decent sign. He
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: pitched well in the game, even though Baltimore is not
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: a good offense five to one strike a walk ratio.
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: But what is he gonna do here against Anaeim? I
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: don't know. Anaim has never faced him before, so he
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: does have a little bit of that unfamiliarity edge there
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: and that this offense hasn't seen him before. So overall, yeah,
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: I guess I'm still gonna lean slightly to the A's
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: in this game, probably in the first five innings, because
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: I don't want to have anything to do with the
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: bullpens here. The money is disagreeing with me. Ana I'm
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: flipped from plus one hundred to minus one twelve sixty
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the tickets eighty one percent of the
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: cash on them. I would not want to do that again.
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: I think Anaheim kind of a letdown spot here. It
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: seems to make sense you'd take a shot with the
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: A's first five innings if you actually wanted to play
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: this game. The total is at ten because it's a
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: game in Sacramento. It's down a little bit juice to
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: the under now public. All over the over eighty four
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets been ninety percent of the cash
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: on the over as well. I mean, I don't really
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: have a huge disagreement with the over here. I mean,
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: if the bullpen's getting into this equation, both bullpens are awful.
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: I could see both starters potentially struggling a little bit
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: here to and not potentially going that deep into these games.
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: So into that game, I should say, so yeah, I mean,
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: those are my thoughts on that game. I guess San
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: Diego at the Dodgers one of the bigger matchups here,
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: because the Dodgers have got to be pretty pissed off
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: right now. Man. Dodgers have lost four games in a row,
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: including getting swept by Anaheim, which I just mentioned, and
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: all that happening while San Diego was winning a bunch
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: of games in a row, pretty much. And San Diego
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: has now overtaken the Dodgers for the lead in the
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: NL West, which is really really crazy. Curtis, what's up, man?
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: Curtis still hanging out here shouting out NDS. The Sacramento A's.
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: They're not even being called the Sacramento A's, They're just
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: they're just the homeless A's. So yeah, I mean, we
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: should rid the we should rid the streets, and then
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: we should only the cops on those guys. Guy, Wait,
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: what guy in the A's has been stroking Nick Kurtz?
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: You mean Nick Kurtz. I like that guy. I can't
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: say his name too quickly, though, or you'll get nuked
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: on the channel. Nick. Nick Kurtz is solid fun I've
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: ever to be funnier with NDS in that house here, man. Yeah, Dodgers, though,
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: I think the Dodgers are gonna show up in this game, man.
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: I mean, they lost first place, They're playing the team
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: that overtook them. They're coming up an ugly, ugly freeway
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: series against Anaheim. I mean, the travel spot is basically nothing.
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: It's like thirty minutes up the road. Uh, Dodgers. I'm
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: expecting them to show up in this game. San Diego,
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: they are in a nice little run right now though.
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: They won five games in a row, including beating my
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: Boston Red Sox, and they won seven of the last
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: eight games. They're gonna be focused too, though, because it
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: is the Dodgers. I mean, it's a huge series for
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: both teams. They're traveling down from San Francisco, so not
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: a whole lot of travel for San Diego. Either. San
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: Diego has the better bullpend. Dodgers' bullpen has definitely been struggling.
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: San Diego has pretty much an elite bullpen, so San
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: Diego has the better bullpen. Both teams were off yesterday,
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: so there is rest there. Dodgers have the better offense.
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: They're actually the best heating team I think at all
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: of baseball, at least based on runs scored per game
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: they are and at home they're even better. So the
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: Dodgers have the offensive edge pretty significantly, but San Diego
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: has a significant bullpen edge. However, San Diego has not
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: decided on a starting pitcher. It looks like here, which
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: I think that's still the case unless there is one
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: listed now Nope, still undecided. San Diego and Milwaukee both
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: still undecided on their pitcher. Here Dodgers Clinton Kershaw will
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: be pitching for them. He is pitching pretty effectively still,
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: even though he's old, he's injuries.
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 3: Kershaw is kind of old, right, is he like thirty seven?
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: He's thirty seven. I mean some guys that are his
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: age still will go out there and deal. And he's
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: definitely lost like his velocity and stuff, because you can
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: see his strikeout rate has gone way down, but he's
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: still not a lot a lot of runs. Three point
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: one four e ra one point two to six. Whip
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: is a little bit iffy. He's a little bit worse
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: at home three point eight to niney Ray at home
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: this year. Hasn't pitched the full season either. He's been
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: he was dealing with some injuries, but I think he
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: has pitched since mid May. He's been in the rotation
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: this month. He's been good. He's only allowed one run
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: in twelve innings against Tampa on the road, which is
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: not an easy place to play. In Steinbrenner Field, which
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: is another hitter friendly park, It's basically as shitty as
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: the Sacramento stadium. I think that the Aas have to play.
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: It's probably less shitty than that because they're working on
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: a new stadium right Tampa Bay. I don't know. Tropic
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: Canna Field got recks. They're playing in Steinbrener Field, the
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: Yankees spring training stadium for this season at least. And
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: then Kershaw's last start was a pretty good one against Toronto,
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: who have a pretty good offense. Only allowed one and
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: run in that one. This month, he has a seven
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: to one strike a walk ratio just pretty good as well.
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: Even though his strikeout rate is down, He's not walking
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: a lot of guys. He's not allowing a ton of runs,
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: so he's pretty fact that hasn't allowed more than foreign
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: runs since his first start of the season, coming back
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: from injury. Numbers against San Diego, I mean, you gotta
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: kind of take it with a little bit of a
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: grain of assault, because a lot of these numbers were back
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: when he was a better pitcher than he is now.
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: One hundred and forty eight career at bats twenty eight
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: to eight, strike a walk ratio two to seventy seven,
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: batting average eight twenty eight ohps is not that good.
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: So San Diego actually has been able to hit Kershaw
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: fairly well here, So, uh, this game, I mean, I'm
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: probably gonna say an over actually kind of makes sense
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: in this game to may with the Dodgers bullpen being bad,
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: their offense being pretty good. You don't know who San
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: Diego started pitcher is gonna be Kershaw maybe out of
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: the game earlier than the Dodgers would like him to
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: be in this game, Dodgers are down for my just
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: one seventy five to minus one seventy one here on
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: the money line, I mean, I still think it's a
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: decent spot for the Dodgers to come out and try
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: to bounce back from this bad this bad series that
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: they just had against Anaheim. If I was gonna do
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: that would probably be a first five run line and
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: you just go with Kershaw to outpitch whoever the hell
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: is gonna be pitching for San Diego here, although I'm
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: not sure that I love that really, even though it
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: looks like a spot where you'd maybe want to do that.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: But the total is sitting at nine juice to the over,
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: so it looks like the oddsmakers are kind of expecting
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: a bit of a higher scoring game there, and then
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: we do have Tampa Bay at the Giants. Giants basically
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: at this point have to have come to the realization
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: that they're not going anywhere this year. Though they were
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: one of the hottest teams at the beginning of the season,
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: and they've been pretty bad for a while now. Their
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: offense is horrendous, even though their bullpen is good. They
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: have the better bullpen in this matchup, but they have
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: the worst offense. They've lost five games in a row.
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: They're staying at home. Maybe at some point they'll figure out, well,
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: we're embarrassed here because they haven't scored more than one
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: ear and run in any of their last four games,
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: which is pathetic. So at some point they're probably gonna
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: come out with some fire, I guess, because I mean,
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: at some point you got to play for pride here.
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: But Tampa Bay probably realizes they're not going anywhere this
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: year either. They're below five hundred, they're in fourth place
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: in the Al East. It's a tough division. They're not
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: going anywhere either. But their travel spot isn't bad here.
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: They're just traveling across the Bay basically, well from Sacramento
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: now to San Francisco. I guess they're staying on the
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: Pacific coast, but they're playing a long road trip here.
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: They're actually they're having to play four series in a
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: row on the road, which is something really rare in baseball.
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: So Tampa Bay might be starting to run out of
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: steam on this road trip. Man. Joe Boyle pitching for
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: Tampa here, I believe neither pitcher, neither excuse A team
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: played yesterday, So the bullpen's arrested here. Joe Boyle pitching
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: for Tampa does have pretty good numbers this year three
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: point eight two ERA, one point eight whip. He's been
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: pretty bad on the road six point eight to nine
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: y run the road way worse on the road for
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: whatever reason. But he hasn't made that many appearances. He's
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: only pitched thirty and two thirds innings so far this season.
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: His problem has been pretty much the walks.
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 4: Yes, I gotta we gotta run in a minute. What's
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 4: your what are the odds or what's your take on
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 4: UFC three nineteen drinks dupless C versus uh Hamsat CHAMAIEV
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 4: and it's it's a packed card.
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 3: But I want to hear your are.
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: The odds on it? I don't follow UFC en off
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: at all to even know. I don't even see the
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: odds on it yet. I don't even see the odds
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: on this yet.
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's it's an interesting fight, uh tomorrow.
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: I don't see the odds on it yet on this side,
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: but the odds have to be out there, right, I
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: can look at a I mean for me, because I
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: know almost nothing about it except that I don't like
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: dupless A. But I'm sure he's the better fighter, right,
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: I'm assuming he's the favorite.
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 4: Well, he's the champion, but he's a I don't know
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 4: if he's like a better fighter David. Wait, who's he
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 4: fighting Hamzad?
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: Oh it's another uh takedown and grind kind.
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: Of Oh wait, it's JAMAIAV. Than CHAMAIAV. Might actually be favorite.
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: Let me say I would probably go with CHAMAIAV than
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: that one. Actually, I just I default to Tamaiev is
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: actually the favorite. I would actually, uh, he's actually a
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: pretty significant favorite.
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 2: Minus depends on the size of his forehead. If he's
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: got one of those really small foreheads, then yeah, it's
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: gonna be.
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: I would actually go with Yeah, I would go with him.
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: He's he's like a dag of Stani dude, right, I
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: always go yeah instead.
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 3: Well he's a chean rebel. Actually he's like a terrorist.
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: Should Well that's why you gotta go with them, man,
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: because their training is insane. Man. They basically they trained to,
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: you know, fly plans into buildings and not land, you
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 1: know what I mean.
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is happening in America. He thought that we
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: forgot Trump let him in. He thought we forgot about
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: nine to eleven. Yeah, we never seen that.
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: He's face. He's facing a guy who has a two
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: word last name. He's basically gonna treat that like the
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: Twin Towers. It's gonna be a nine to eleven.
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 3: I like it.
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: I think I have TAMAIV is gonna nine to eleven.
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 3: Bet the house on Jamaia.
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you have to lay you have to lay a
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: pretty big price for it though. So I would say
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: Jamaiava is more of a wrestler, right, if I'm not mistaken,
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: because usually.
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 3: They all are, that's a safe bet. Yeah, he's a wrestler,
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 3: but he could strike as well.
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: So well, so if he's gonna win, you probably think
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: it's not gonna be a knockout, right, So you could
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: maybe go Shamaia of winning by decision because you'll get
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: a way better price on that than just taking him
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: to win. I don't know.
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 4: I don't know, but I wouldn't go buy decision this
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 4: the guy gases out fairly, uh, fairly quickly plus my
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 4: first round or du plus dupless c.
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 3: In the later rounds. I don't think this thing goes
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 3: to decision.
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: Really interesting? All right, Well, I might have to start
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: my MMA show. Cheney wants to do an MMA show
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: with me.
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 3: That's awesome to.
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: Start doing that. I don't know anything about it, so
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: she's gonna have to teach me.
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: We're starting a news show. We'd love for you to
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: be our correspondent for sports. Would you consider that? Yeah,
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 2: that would be awesome. We just have to get you
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: a green screen. Don't worry, we'll buy you the green screen.
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 2: I know you don't like to buy things.
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: I can't. I can't buy anything right now.
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 3: That's true. That's true.
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: Sutter Health Park at bad I don't even know what
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: stadium is. Sutter Health Park. Sounds like they're in there.
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 3: He's in.
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 4: Okay, Toad, we'll see you later, man. Uh, he's out,
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 4: great show.
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: Thanks thanks for dropping in, man, ye peace, all right,
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: SEEPDP POUSC all right, yeah yeah, Sutter Health Park. Man,
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: I don't even know which stadium that is, man, uh
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: but yeah, well we'll see what happens.
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: I do want to do like a comedy show, some
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: kind of game too.
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: So I don't know, I need I need to have
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: some sort of comedy outlet here because you've seen me,
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: guys coming to the show. I just start going. Man. Uh,
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: So we'll see, let's get this done. You're Joe Boyle
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: is pitching for Tampa Bay. We're back to the Stampa
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: Bay game here. Tampa Bay has lost four appearances in
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: a row. That he's mad. I think there are probably
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: all starts, but he's not going deep into these starts. Man. Oh,
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: that's the A stadium. I didn't even know what the
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: name of it was. Oh it is. It is a
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: decent stadium. Triple A stadiums are fun, man. I mean
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: I used to go to the Passaux Stadium, a decent amount,
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: which is in a terrible It was in a terrible
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: area in Pawtucket, Rhode Island, outside of Providence. But the
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: stadium was nice. It was a good you know, family atmosphere.
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: They do a lot of family events. There was just
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: that you have to walk through all these terrible areas
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: to park and to get there. And of course then
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: they moved the team to Worcester, which is also a
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 1: shitty area the WU Socks. But I think that that
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: new stadium myself, to get my ass out to it.
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: It's something been out there, but that new stadium. It's
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: actually further away from me than Providences. But that new
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: stadium is probably a fairly decent I would guess. And
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: then I've been to the Portland Sea Dogs one a
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: few different times too, back when they were the Marlins
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: affiliate and when they've been the Red Sox affiliate. I've
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: been up there. Uh, The Portland Sea Dogs have a
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: pretty fun stadium. It's a nice stadium, a small, you know,
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: double a stadium up there. They do like family stuff
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: as well. Their mascot is like award winning slugger the
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: Sea Dog. So I mean it's a fun time up
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: there anyway. Joe Boyle, he's not going deep into these starts, man.
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: He's only gone five innings twice or three times excusually
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: this entire year, so I guess he has actually been starting.
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: Has he been starting this entire time, though, I don't know,
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: because I don't remember him starting back in April. I
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: think he has started since July, though I guess I
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: don't know about that that appearance in April. But he's
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: only made made it to the five inning mark twice.
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: Last owning was really bad at a pitcher from the
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: Seattle Park. Five walks, three home runs, allowed, six earned runs.
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: I don't think he can give him a pass for
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: something like that, man, even though Seattle can hit decently.
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's still a really bad performance. So Boyle,
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: he's not really in good form right now. Giants haven't
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: seen a whole lot of him. They are two for
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: three of them, with four walks and one strikeout a
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: lifetime against Boyle, though, so Boyle hasn't been particularly good
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 1: against the guys that have faced him. So I'm not
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: really expecting Boyle to do that well here Landon Roupe,
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: I already have him up because he's coming off the
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: d L here. The I L for the Giants here.
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: Roup is an interesting picture. Man. He fools hitters with
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: like really crazy breaking stuff, Like he has a really
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: really nasty curve ball. He's got a three point one
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: one of the season, which I think is his rookie
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: season as well, if I'm not mistaken last season. Actually,
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: he made twenty three appearances last year, but most of
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: them out of the bullpens, so maybe I'm wrong about that.
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: One point four to three whip this year is not
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: very good though, so I got to keep that in mind.
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: His whip is not as good, but he's been quite
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: good at home, with a one point eight home the
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: ra in this more picture from the Giant Stadium here
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: IP against Tampa Bay. They're over three offen. Only three
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: of their heros have seen him before. A route is
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: definitely unfamiliar uh to Tampa, and more unfamiliar than boil Is.
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: So I'm actually gonna lean to San Francisco in this game. Man. Tampa's,
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: you know, kind of a public road favored. You have
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: fifty five percent tickets on them, only fifty four percent
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: of the cash, Uh, San Francisco down for mine his
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: one thirty to one twenty five here money looks like
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: it's coming in on the over, bringing the total of
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: from eight to eight juice to the over seventy one
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: percent tickets seventy six percent of cash in the over.
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure I really agree with that. With two
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: kind of unfamiliar pitchers here, I mean, I could see
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: this game potentially going under. We have two decent bullpends too,
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: and as I said, I think the bullpens are both
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: rested too. But San Francisco does love the better of
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: the two bullpens. They just have the weaker offense. But
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: I like pitching more than I like hitting, and I
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: think getting a home favorite like this that the public
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: does not want at all, I think is a decent
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: way to look. So I would lean towards sarad Cisco
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: in that game. And now we're gonna go to the
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: best bets, and then I will talk about an NFL
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: preseason very quickly before I get out of here. Best
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: bet time, baby. Sorry, I started the show late, and
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be a long, long show here. First one,
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: even though I did already give about Seattle in the
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: WNBA plus two and a half, so remember that you
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: might be able to get three on that. You can
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: go back and see my analysis early in the show
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: on the Seattle Storm two baseball players. In my first one,
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: I think I'm fading some of the market indicators here,
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Texas, the Texas Rangers on the
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: money line at minus one ten. I actually liked this spot, man,
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: I like this play on Texas. Actually, the market looks
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: like it is sort of starting to agree with me now,
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: even though Toronto flip from plus one oh three to
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: minus one oh six. I actually think that Toronto was
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: a heavier favorite a little while ago. But they have
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: seventy percent of tickets only fifty seven percent of the cash.
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: So we are we are fading what almost looks like
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: a public home underdog now, which is almost something that
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: you never see. So I actually basically like the market
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 1: indicators on this game, and we're gonna go with pretty
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: much a public an anti public road favorite here, which
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: is something you rarely rarely see in baseball. And that's
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: what I'm gonna do in this game here. Toronto played
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: yesterday and they played a big series against the Cubs yesterday. Man,
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: good good outing from Scherzer yesterday, big win for Toronto.
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: So Toronto, they're staying at home yes so they're not traveling,
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: but they played yesterday, so they are the less rested team.
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: Texas didn't play yesterday, so Texas has rest here and
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: Texas will be coming in starting a road trip off
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: of a bad stretcher. They've lost six of seven, so
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 1: nobody's gonna want Texas right now. They've lost six to seven.
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: They're right at five hundred, which again is another big
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: time motivator. Man, when you were above five hundred for
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: a while, now you're back to five hundred, you're gonna
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: be pretty motivated. Man. I think they're gonn to be
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: motivated off with a day off to start a road
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: trip after pitching really really after playing really really poorly.
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be a motivated spot for Texas here.
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: So I like this. I think Texas is gonna show
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: up with a little bit of fire here man. So
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: I like how the spot sets up for Texas. Again,
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 1: they were off yesterday, which is something that I look for.
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: You gotta look for the matchup though, and yes, Toronto
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: definitely has the better offense. We know that they do
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: have the better offense, but their bullpend was used yesterday.
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: I know, the only three relievers, which isn't that extreme
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 1: as far as the usage, but Texas has the better
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: bullpen anyway. Texas up here at fourth and bullpenny ra
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: in Toronto has slipped down to seventeenth. They have an
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: above four bullpenny are now, so Texas does have a
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: significant bullpen edge hitting. Yes, I know Toronto is the
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 1: better offense. Like I said, they're up there on offense,
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: but again I'm going with pitching over offense here and
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: looking at the starting pitching, I much prefer Jacob de
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: Grom over Chris bassett Man. De Grom he's really really
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: good throughout his career and he's setting some records and
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 1: I know he's not as good now because he's an
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 1: old guy, but he's got a two point eight six R.
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: He's got a sub one whip at point nine to five,
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: which is something really really difficult to do. I know
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: we're gonna fade the splits here. I know de Grom
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: is worse on the road three point seven to three,
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: which is still not that bad. And I know he's
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 1: been a little bit rough his last three starts. He's
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 1: allowed three or more in runs at three straight starts,
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 1: but he still does have a twenty one to five
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio over that span, so he is
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: not pitching that terribly right now. And the thing that
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: I like is that after he had a couple of
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: rough starts. He walked three guys against Seattle. Yes, I
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: know those are both starts on the road against Anaheim,
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: giving up five runs five runs against Seattle as well.
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: I know he wasn't pitching well on the road, and
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 1: he's pitching on the road here. But he bounced back
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 1: pretty nicely with a start at home against a good
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: Philly offense. Eight strikeouts, one walk against them, three on runs.
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 1: So I think he's trending back in the right direction here.
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 1: Man and de Grom, he's used to pitching like this man.
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: He's a grinder. I mean, I know he's older, but
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: he's a veteran. He's been one of the top pitchers
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 1: in baseball throughout his career, so I like all that.
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: And he does have decent numbers against Toronto twenty eight
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: at bats. He don't even have that much of a
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 1: track record against him. Nine to three, strike a walk
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: race here, two to fifty batting average pretty low. Seven
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: to fifty one oh ps is a little bit high,
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: but not enough that I'm about to say, well, I
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: don't want to grab de Gram here, because I do
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 1: think he is the better of these two pitchers. It's
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: Bassett and gram at here. Man. Chris Bassett, pitcher for Toronto.
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: He's pretty old as well. Man. He's a guy who
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 1: has not had as prolific a career as a De
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: gram But right now the public seems to be ignoring
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: that fact. Bassett is having a decent season four point
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: one to seventy RRA, but one point three to two
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: whip is not that good. His whip is too high.
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: He's a guy. He doesn't come out and blow guys away. Man,
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: He's just a guy that tries to fool guys by
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: throwing a lot of different fastballs at them. He doesn't
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: have a high fastball velocity, but he changes the way
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: that his fastball moves a lot, which is how he
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: keeps hitters off balance. Yes, I know he's been better
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: at home significantly. Two point five to sixty are home.
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: I told Jo, I'm fading the splits here at the
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: starting pitching. I know that. But we're going full game here.
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: We're going with the situation. We're going with the bullpend
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: as well. In Bassett, he's in a lesser form than
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 1: de Grammes right now. Man, He's failed to go five
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 1: innings in two of his last three starts he's allowed
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: three or more in runs and three of the last
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 1: four starts against the Yankees and Dodgers. Yeah, they're good
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 1: hitting teams. Giving up six n runs to Baltimore. I
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: know it was on the road, so he's worse on
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 1: the road, but that was pretty inexplicable. His one decent
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 1: star over that stretches against Kansas City was a really
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: bad lineup, and Kansas City he still walked three guys
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: against them. His last stary didn't allow that many runs
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 1: against San Francisco. He shut them out for six and
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 1: a third Indies, but he still gave up ten runs
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 1: in that start, so he was still putting some guys
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 1: on base and kind of getting away with it because
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 1: he didn't walk anybody. But his walks have gone up
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: again this month. He has five walks compared to seven strikeouts.
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 1: So he's not really in the greatest forum right now.
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: Man and up against Texas. Even though Texas is often
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: isn't good, they actually are are good. Against Bassett, he
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 1: has the worst of the matchup numbers. It's sixty five
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 1: at bats three zero eight batting average nine to fifty
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: three ohps, so we're gonna go with Texas here man
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 1: on the money line, Texas Rangers. And then to finish
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 1: it off, as I said, I'm going right back to
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 1: the well, we're gonna go Arizona Colorado over a huge
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: total again at Course Field. Yesterday it fell short. I
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 1: know we only got to ten yesterday and it was twelve.
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 1: Line's a little bit less today, it's eleven and a half.
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 1: You can find twelves up there as well. Eleven and
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 1: a half. It have to pay a little bit more
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: for it. I know it's not a significant number really,
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 1: between eleven and a half and twelve. It's more significant
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 1: when you're on the odd numbers. But I still think
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 1: it's this is a decent play to make here, man,
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at the line here in this one. Where
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: are we seeing this? It's a National League game? Where
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 1: are you The money's coming in on the over, The
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 1: public's on the over too. The lines already flipped from
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: twelve j justice the under twelve just to the over.
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: So I don't think you can get the eleven and
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 1: a half anymore. So you might have to pay a
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: little bit extra to go over twelve. So my apologies
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: for that. I mean, I found a couple eleven and
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 1: a half's out there right before I did the show.
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 1: I would still probably recommend doing it over twelve as well,
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 1: because there's really not much of a difference between eleven
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 1: and a half and twelve. Ninety one percent of tickets
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 1: on the over, but ninety seven percent of the cash
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 1: coming in on the over. And again, we're looking at
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 1: two teams that have bad bullpens, so that's something that's
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 1: part of the handicap. Obviously, neither team used a lot
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 1: of their bullpen yesterday, but these are bad bullpens, so
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 1: we're obviously taking that into account here. Arizona has a
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: good offense, so we have that going for us as well,
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 1: even though they've traded some guys away. They're up here
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 1: at third in OPS as far as team OPS, which
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 1: is crazy. Colorado's offense, I know, is not good, but
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 1: they are significantly better at home than they are on
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 1: the road. Same thing I said yesterday, And look at
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 1: these bullpens, man, Colorado's second worst in bullpenny ray well
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 1: over five bullpenny ray really really bad, and Arizona's is
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 1: really not that much better. Where are they at They
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: should be down to the bum. Yeah, there they are
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 1: four point seventy four bad, bad stuff. Maybe it'll give
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 1: me good luck to actually point out their eer. Brandon
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: Fott pitching for Arizona, not having a good season five
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 1: point zero three ERA, one point three to five whip,
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 1: and he's been fairly good at home and really bad
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 1: on the road. Six point five to five er on
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 1: the road. That's not good this month is a four
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: point two two ERA, which doesn't look that bad, but
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 1: he's giving up sixteen hits ten in the third innings
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 1: six to three strike a walk ratio. That's not good.
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 1: And by the way, both of these starting pitchers are
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 1: facing the team they just faced, which was something I
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 1: pointed out yesterday. So the offense is are recently familiar
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 1: with bull starting pitchers, which is also an advantage of
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 1: the hitters. Last time out, fought at home. Only give
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: up three on runs to Colorado. Okay, that looks okay,
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 1: but he gave up eleven hits to them two strikeouts.
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: Wasn't very impressive either, So his start wasn't particularly good
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 1: against Colorado and his numbers aren't either. In sixty at
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 1: bats three eighty three batting average allowed nine to twenty
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 1: oh ps, thirteen to two strike a walk rations, all right,
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 1: but those are bad numbers man against Colorado, so he's
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 1: not good against them. And he's going up against Tanner Gordon,
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 1: who started the season late, and he's been pretty atrocious
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 1: eight point three seven ERA, one point eight to nine whip,
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 1: really bad. He's been actually better at home, which I
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 1: don't know how you can even make sense of that
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 1: five point five seven RA, which is still bad. His
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 1: last few starts. He's given up six or more in
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 1: runs at all three starts, failing to go five innings
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 1: in any of them against Cleveland, Toronto and then of
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 1: course Arizona, who's facing again right now. He gave up
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 1: ten earned runs at Arizona the last time out, so yeah,
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 1: he shouldn't do that badly again. But still he's facing
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 1: a team that just wrecked them and now they're familiar
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 1: with them again. Even though he has a seven zero
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio this month, I'm not buying it. And
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 1: he has a twenty point eight SIXTYRA across those last
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 1: two starts this month, so I am buying that he's
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 1: not good. And his numbers against Arizona, which a lot
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 1: of that was that recent start, but they have thirty
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 1: at bats against him, fourteen hits, six strikeouts, two walks.
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 1: Isn't that bad for Gordon, but a four to sixty
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 1: seven average, a oney one hundred roho ps. So Arizona
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: has Ray against him as well, not just in that
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: most recent game against them. So pretty much everything lines
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: up for an over here man except for Colorado's offense
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 1: being a little bit weak. But we're going right back
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 1: to the well and we're doing that again, so that's
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 1: gonna be the baseball rundown. Those are the best bets.
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 1: We'll finish it off with just NFL really quickly. We
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 1: do have two preseason games, and I know it's preseason.
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 1: I haven't given out any plays here, but we'll mention
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 1: the games briefly. We have Titans Falcons first game up,
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 1: which is at Atlanta. Titans down from three and a
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 1: half to three now, so it looks like the initial
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 1: money drove the Titans up. I think they were like
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 1: a four point favorite at some point, and now the
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 1: lines come back down thinking that, well, maybe that was
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 1: just too much of a line move on the Titans.
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 1: But the reason why the Titans are favored here, which
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 1: you have to keep in mind the Titans are going
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 1: to be playing their starters. Cam Ward played in their
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 1: previous game as well, because he's a rookie, so they
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 1: want to get him reps. I think he played two
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: series and he might play more this time out, So
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 1: the Titans are playing cam Ward in this game. He
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 1: was okay in the last game of the Titan offense
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 1: still stunk in the last game they lost in think
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: twenty nine to seven or something in Tampa Bay, and
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: the Falcons played in that weird shortened game where I
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 1: have an issue with it. I mean, I know there
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 1: was a concussion of bad injury on the field at
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 1: the beginning of the fourth quarter, but still these guys
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 1: are trying to figure out who's even gonna make the
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: roster here, man, So I think you got to finish
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 1: these games at least. I know they allow these preseason
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 1: games to wind up been ties now, but everything is
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 1: just becoming so pussified. These games are just getting canceled
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 1: just because the guy gets injured, which happens. It's un
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 1: in the NFL, by the way, but it seems like
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 1: they're just gonna cancel every game now. It's just ridiculous.
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 1: That's what happened in the Falcons game. They lost to
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 1: Detroit seventeen to ten. So both of these teams coming
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 1: off losses, so they won't want to bounce back, although
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: Tennessee got more embarrassed in their first outing, so they
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 1: might have a little bit of extra motivation here. Falcons
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 1: will not be playing either of their top two qbs
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 1: here Pennix, even though they it seems to me like
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 1: they should get him some reps because he hasn't played
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 1: that much yet. But Michael Pionis. By the way, they
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 1: one of the news agencies I saw that graphic actually
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 1: spelled his last name is p Ands out there. They
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 1: screwed it up. Amazing. It took that long. Falcons with
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 1: Pennix and Kirk Cousins on the roster, they're not playing
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 1: in this game though, So the Falcons don't have either
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 1: of their two starters playing. But they do have Easton Stick,
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 1: who actually played pretty decently for them in their first
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 1: preseason game, and he's got experienced because he was backing
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 1: up Justin Herbert for the Chargers and he was playing,
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 1: he was starting when Herbert was hurt. So Easton Stick
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 1: ridiculous name sounds like a baseball bat company. Easton Stick
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 1: actually is not a bad quarterback though, so he'll be
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 1: in this game for the Falcons quite a bit. So
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 1: I'm not quite sure that I agree with the Titans
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 1: being a favorite to this degree. And again, we have
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 1: low totals in these games, although the totals are starting
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 1: to get started getting a little bit higher because we've
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 1: seen some pretty high scores in some of these preseason games.
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 1: And now we're on to week two, which says to
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 1: be a little bit less low scoring than Week one
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 1: as well. And then we do have Chief Seahawks. Seahawks
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 1: have flipped from plus two and a half to minus
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 1: three now, and you know that means the Seahawks they're
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 1: gonna be playing some starters here too, and that has
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 1: been confirmed. They didn't play Sam Donald in their first
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 1: preseason game, I don't think, but he is going to
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: play in this game at least the first couple series.
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 1: Probably Donald will be out there. So the Seahawks are
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 1: favored for that reasonable though again maybe that line. It
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 1: seems like these line moves they're going like too far.
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 1: Man Like, these line moves just are going further than
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 1: they should even though it seems like the public doesn't
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 1: really tend to agree with the line moves, and the
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 1: professional money seems to be on those line moves, and
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 1: that's why the lines are moving like that. But it
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 1: seems like once the line gets to it's extreme on
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 1: the other side, there's value coming in against them. So
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 1: I've recommended going over those team totals like the Titans,
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 1: especially because they only scored seven runs seven runs still
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 1: in baseball mode, seven points in the previous preseason game.
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 1: Given that cam Ward's gonna be out there for a bit,
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 1: I think Titans over their team total might make sense,
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 1: or maybe even over in the first half. And I
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 1: probably say the same thing about the Seahawks and the Chiefs.
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 1: They're not playing Mahomes in this game. I mean, he
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 1: doesn't need it. Chiefs are resting guys. So see, that's
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 1: why the Seahawks are the favorite there. So that's what
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 1: we have going on in that And then you have
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 1: forty nine Ers Raiders, which I'll probably mention that game tomorrow,
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 1: but I think that's the same thing with the Raiders.
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 1: Raiders already played their starters in their first game against
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks. They played Geno Smith, a game that I
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 1: think ended in a tie. So I think the Raiders
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 1: are continuing to just play their starters here in the
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 1: forty nine ers, likely or not. So that's why the
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 1: Raiders are favored in that game tomorrow. So just shout
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 1: out to who is it who asked about that game, Curtis? Maybe, Yeah,
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 1: So a little bit of a precursor there, Curtis. You
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 1: seem like you're Bay Area guy man talking about Sacramento
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 1: stadiums and such, So a little bit of a preview there.
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 1: Once again. My plays today our Seattle Storm in WNBA,
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 1: plus the two and a half or three Texas Rangers
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 1: money line full game, Arizona and Colorado over the total
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 1: in that course field baseball game, and we're going right
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 1: back to the well with that one again, and that's
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 1: gonna do it. Niners backups and I don't even know
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 1: who their backups are, to be honest, but they're probably
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 1: gonna rest Rock Perdy because he has enough experience he
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 1: doesn't really need the reps either. So I'm probably the
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 1: resting McCaffrey as well, I would guess, because he's so
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 1: injury prone he doesn't really need to be out there either.
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 1: That's gonna do it for me for now. Learn its
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 1: own on Twitter, Learn its own on Instagram, put out
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 1: short betting content there which I'll get those out at
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 1: some point today. My games are all night games today,
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 1: I think, so we'll see when I get those out,
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 1: and then we'll do we have a better off debt
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 1: of course, you know, like subscribe to the channel here
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 1: on YouTube interact as you've been doing. Thanks guys for that.
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 1: I'm on the audio platforms as well, Spotify, Apple or
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 1: the big ones obviously you can go give me a
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 1: rating over there and help boost those as well. Covered
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 1: in You because my ukulele project or I did put
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 1: out that Lolited Diaries album that I wrote the entire
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 1: album for my first ukulele original project. The whole album
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 1: that I put on Twitter is out there on YouTube
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 1: now as well, so go check out as well. Once
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 1: my voice comes back, I'll be doing more YouTube so
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 1: I'm I started doing live you streams as well, so
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 1: covered in Yuca is out there and then Patreon, dot com,
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 1: slash will learn to Toe if you want to get
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 1: some extra you content or just support me. I mean
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 1: I appreciate all that. Thank you, sar Curtis. Thank you, man,
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 1: I have a good day to you as well. H
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 1: nhh to you as well. So let's not get the
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 1: channel nuked though it's it stands for uh nuking. Uh No,
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is the what is nh? What
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 1: do we want nah to stand for? Is something with
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 1: helping hands or hamburger out? Nuke the hamburger helper. Yeah,
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 1: we're gonna microwave the hamburger helper.
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 4: There we go.
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 1: How about that. That's gonna do it for me today, man,
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 1: have a happy Friday. Let's kick off the weekend. Well
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 1: I think it's Friday right, I don't even know anymore.
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 1: And thanks to our top lobson David or Raven for
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 1: coming into the into the show here the Neflin Desk
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 1: Squad guys. Go check out their show, Nefliin Desk Squad.
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 1: You'll find it. It's easy to find. You'll find those
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 1: guys out there that's gonna do it. Maybe I'll add
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 1: them to the description here too. Peace out, guys,