Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Super Bowl Memories, the Tooth Fairy & a Parlay | Super Bowl LX
Transcript
- 0:09Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings. The crown
- 0:13Speaker 1: is yours. Super Bowl Sunday is inching closer. We are
- 0:17Speaker 1: almost to the finish line. Thank you to our guests
- 0:20Speaker 1: throughout the last week plus. Nick Lee covering the Seattle Seahawks,
- 0:24Speaker 1: Alex Barth on the Patriots, Matt Moore cross Sport Action,
- 0:29Speaker 1: catch him on Buckets awesome stuff. Go and check it
- 0:31Speaker 1: out in the archives. If you didn't catch it live
- 0:34Speaker 1: or already downloaded as a podcast, listen en route to
- 0:39Speaker 1: Super Bowl sixty. But we have business to attend to today.
- 0:42Speaker 1: I'm Brandon Kravitz, joined by the Favorites Croup, the Prime
- 0:45Speaker 1: Minister of djen Nation, Stucky, and the Queen of the Pod,
- 0:49Speaker 1: Miss Kendra Middleton. On today's episode, we've got action or distraction.
- 0:53Speaker 1: We're back to the usual standards here on the Favorites.
- 0:57Speaker 1: We've got Stucky's random question of the Week and our
- 1:00Speaker 1: official I have been waiting weeks for this. Two Kings
- 1:03Speaker 1: and a Queen parlay courtesy of Draft Kings. But first
- 1:07Speaker 1: are stat of the Week, straight from the primer. I'm
- 1:10Speaker 1: gonna give you two conflicting trends here and you guys
- 1:13Speaker 1: are gonna tell me which one holds more statistical.
- 1:16Speaker 2: Relevance to you?
- 1:18Speaker 1: So on the Patriot side, if you go back to
- 1:21Speaker 1: his time with the Titans, Mike Vrabel is the third
- 1:24Speaker 1: most profitable moneyline underdog among all coaches over the last
- 1:29Speaker 1: twenty seasons. Okay, that's the pat side. The Seahawks side
- 1:34Speaker 1: in his career as a favorite of four points or more,
- 1:37Speaker 1: Sam Darnald fifteen and one straight up, eleven and five
- 1:41Speaker 1: ats Kendra, Which of those do you think holds more relevance?
- 1:46Speaker 1: You don't have to reveal your pick here, but if
- 1:48Speaker 1: you're just looking at those two trends, which one of
- 1:50Speaker 1: those do you think is more relevant to the reality
- 1:54Speaker 1: of this Sunday?
- 1:55Speaker 3: I'm gonna say probably Sam Darnald, just because I think
- 2:00Speaker 3: that he's going to play a bigger role in the Seahawks'
- 2:03Speaker 3: success than Rabel will in the Patriots success. He's been
- 2:06Speaker 3: a great coach this season. Obviously, they've been the most
- 2:08Speaker 3: you know, profitable team against the spread, but I think
- 2:11Speaker 3: a lot more credit goes to McDaniels than people want
- 2:15Speaker 3: to give credit for. So I'm going to go with
- 2:17Speaker 3: Sam Donald just because I think so much of this
- 2:19Speaker 3: Patriots team's success on the offensive side has come from McDaniels,
- 2:23Speaker 3: and it's going to continue to have to because they're
- 2:24Speaker 3: going to have to put up more than twenty points
- 2:26Speaker 3: to beat the Seahawks defense.
- 2:28Speaker 4: So I am going to have to wind.
- 2:30Speaker 3: Up continuing to give more credit to McDaniels. Donald being
- 2:34Speaker 3: fifteen and month straight up is crazy and this is
- 2:38Speaker 3: a big moment. And I also am going to give
- 2:41Speaker 3: Sam Donald more respect than I think the national you know,
- 2:44Speaker 3: people who are on the Pats have this week.
- 2:47Speaker 2: What about you, Stuckey.
- 2:48Speaker 1: We have twenty years of data that point to Mike
- 2:52Speaker 1: Rabel being the third most profitable moneyline underdog among coaches,
- 2:56Speaker 1: and we have I'm surprised that Sam Donald has been
- 2:59Speaker 1: a fan favored to four points or more sixteen times.
- 3:02Speaker 1: To be honest with you, but where do you land
- 3:04Speaker 1: on this? Which one do you think holds more relevancy?
- 3:08Speaker 5: The Vrabel one for sure. I just think Donald has
- 3:13Speaker 5: been you know, over the past two seasons, has played
- 3:17Speaker 5: on teams with incredible defensive coordinators and defenses, and when
- 3:21Speaker 5: they get a lead, they can, you know, really pile
- 3:24Speaker 5: on teams and beat up on bad quarterbacks. And they
- 3:27Speaker 5: faced a lot of bad quarterbacks over the couple at
- 3:29Speaker 5: the past couple years. Donald's played well over the past
- 3:31Speaker 5: two years, but that's a more of a you know
- 3:34Speaker 5: who which team Donald has been on and as a
- 3:38Speaker 5: result of you know, the defenses that he's benefited from
- 3:41Speaker 5: on his own team. Whereas Vrabel, I think he is
- 3:45Speaker 5: a great coach. He is, you know, a good motivator,
- 3:49Speaker 5: and I do think he does little things in the
- 3:52Speaker 5: games that give the Patriots edges in terms of, you know,
- 3:56Speaker 5: understanding the rules, the little things that you think coaches
- 4:00Speaker 5: NFL coach is only thirty two of them. You think
- 4:01Speaker 5: everyone would understand, but they don't. But the game management,
- 4:04Speaker 5: the clock management, the little things like you know, when
- 4:08Speaker 5: the Broncos subbed with two thirty to go and he
- 4:10Speaker 5: said to his defense, they ran off like really slow
- 4:13Speaker 5: and wasted twenty five seconds. Rabel does a couple of
- 4:16Speaker 5: those things a game. So I do think that he
- 4:20Speaker 5: does provide some real alpha and I do ultimately think
- 4:25Speaker 5: that this game and most Super Bowls are decided by
- 4:33Speaker 5: not you know, not only the quarterbacks. Most importantly, the coaching,
- 4:36Speaker 5: where you have two weeks to prepare. This is when
- 4:39Speaker 5: you throw everything that you have out there. This is
- 4:41Speaker 5: when you come up with potential curve balls and potential
- 4:44Speaker 5: nuanced game plans that the other team isn't prepared for.
- 4:47Speaker 5: And those are the things that can decide games between
- 4:51Speaker 5: you know, two very good teams that are almost always
- 4:53Speaker 5: going to meet in the Super Bowl. So I do
- 4:55Speaker 5: think that the Rabel one holds more merit, and the
- 5:00Speaker 5: battle between this Patriots coaching staff and the Seahawks coaching staff,
- 5:06Speaker 5: I think is going to go along line determining who
- 5:08Speaker 5: is your Super Bowl sixty winner.
- 5:10Speaker 3: I need to know how often he was an underdog though,
- 5:12Speaker 3: because those Titans teams played in a terrible division.
- 5:16Speaker 1: I think they were underdogs quite a bit. And I'll
- 5:20Speaker 1: look up what the Patriots were as far as this
- 5:22Speaker 1: year goes, but I mean, I know they played such
- 5:24Speaker 1: an easy schedule that.
- 5:26Speaker 3: That was the reason that I was often Yeah, that
- 5:28Speaker 3: was the reason I chose Jarnald was because my initial
- 5:30Speaker 3: instinct was how often was he actually a dog with
- 5:34Speaker 3: that Titans team in that division?
- 5:37Speaker 1: Well, as far as this year goes, the New England
- 5:41Speaker 1: Patriots were four and two against the spread as an underdog.
- 5:44Speaker 1: Now that's ats that's not necessarily straight up but just
- 5:48Speaker 1: to give you an idea, if you were looking the
- 5:49Speaker 1: way of the Patriots for this year, they were dogged
- 5:51Speaker 1: six times and they covered in four of those. But
- 5:57Speaker 1: I'm not sure when it comes to Tennessee. But the
- 5:59Speaker 1: Tennessee team wasn't really known. It's not like they were
- 6:01Speaker 1: given a lot of national respect.
- 6:04Speaker 3: Yeah, he never had a good quarterback ever, but still
- 6:07Speaker 3: like that division was dog shit for so long.
- 6:11Speaker 1: So I do want to stay on this game. A
- 6:13Speaker 1: lot of people tuning in that. I want to hear
- 6:15Speaker 1: the analysis. We've been previewing it in every different direction,
- 6:18Speaker 1: even bringing NBA cross sport plays into it. We'll get
- 6:21Speaker 1: to our random question of the week in a moment, Bona,
- 6:24Speaker 1: keep this ball a roll in action or distraction time?
- 6:28Speaker 5: This is abstracted distracted.
- 6:30Speaker 4: I'm nottacky.
- 6:31Speaker 5: I want it on the action.
- 6:35Speaker 1: The Seattle Seahawks are getting sixty six percent of the
- 6:39Speaker 1: betting tickets according to the Action Network app. In the
- 6:41Speaker 1: last twenty three years of bet Labs data, only seven
- 6:45Speaker 1: Super Bowl teams have closed with sixty plus percent of
- 6:49Speaker 1: the bets. Overwhelmingly, people are betting the Seattle Seahawks. Every
- 6:54Speaker 1: analyst I hear nationally certainly the public betting numbers that
- 6:58Speaker 1: are out there, per Action Network are telling us and
- 7:02Speaker 1: a bit with a big flashing neon sign that people
- 7:06Speaker 1: are betting the Seattle Seahawks minus the points. However, the
- 7:10Speaker 1: public has been really good at betting these Super Bowls.
- 7:13Speaker 1: When things are tilted in one direction, they are five
- 7:15Speaker 1: and two straight up against the spread. When teams are
- 7:18Speaker 1: catching sixty plus percent of the tickets. Action or distraction, Kendro,
- 7:23Speaker 1: the public is Super Bowl sharp.
- 7:27Speaker 3: I think a lot of it has to do with one,
- 7:31Speaker 3: how much name in this year in particular, how much
- 7:34Speaker 3: name recognition is on this Seattle team versus this Patriots team.
- 7:39Speaker 4: Like this, it makes sense to.
- 7:42Speaker 3: Me why the public in this particular game would be
- 7:44Speaker 3: on them, because, like JSN, a lot of people are
- 7:46Speaker 3: talking about, you know, how good of a season he's had,
- 7:48Speaker 3: The kids love him. One of the highest selling jerseys
- 7:51Speaker 3: for Christmas this year, Sam Darnold's turnaround.
- 7:54Speaker 4: You can talk about, you know, Kenneth Walker.
- 7:55Speaker 3: He's been really popular amongst you know, like casual fans
- 7:59Speaker 3: to talk about, especially because of Fantasy and all that
- 8:01Speaker 3: stuff this year. So I think in this year in particular,
- 8:03Speaker 3: it's just the lack of name recognition for people in
- 8:07Speaker 3: this Patriots team, because you want to bet on people
- 8:09Speaker 3: that you know, right, that are popular, like the general
- 8:12Speaker 3: public is going to continue to do that. And also
- 8:14Speaker 3: dogs have done really well in Super Bowls when betting,
- 8:19Speaker 3: So I would say that it's more so we talked
- 8:22Speaker 3: about this before we got on the show, right Like,
- 8:23Speaker 3: by the time that today rolled around, I had been
- 8:26Speaker 3: doing so much research and digging into this so much
- 8:29Speaker 3: that I feel like I'm starting to doubt myself in
- 8:31Speaker 3: my initial gut instincts.
- 8:33Speaker 4: So I think it's probably a little.
- 8:35Speaker 3: Bit of you know, we have watched so much of
- 8:37Speaker 3: these teams by the time this game comes around, we've
- 8:40Speaker 3: overthought it to a point that maybe that gets people
- 8:43Speaker 3: like us in trouble, and the general public is just
- 8:45Speaker 3: like we I love JSN and Cooper Cup, Let's bet
- 8:48Speaker 3: on them because it's fun, you know what I mean? Like,
- 8:49Speaker 3: I think that that's probably the way that I personally
- 8:53Speaker 3: see this.
- 8:53Speaker 4: Whether that's right or wrong, who's to say, but that I'm.
- 8:55Speaker 1: Just yeah, I'm surprised because if I was told, Okay,
- 9:00Speaker 1: you've had seven Super Bowls over the last twenty three years,
- 9:03Speaker 1: where sixty plus percent of the bets are on one side.
- 9:06Speaker 1: And then you said, Okay, now that you have that information,
- 9:08Speaker 1: predict the record of those seven Super Bowls for the
- 9:11Speaker 1: betting public. I would not have been anywhere close to
- 9:14Speaker 1: five and two. I'm surprised that they've been that successful
- 9:17Speaker 1: for a game.
- 9:18Speaker 2: That is why though at.
- 9:19Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes, so many people are for the most part,
- 9:22Speaker 3: these are probably Mahomes and Brady, So it's like those
- 9:25Speaker 3: are the that's where the public money is going to
- 9:27Speaker 3: be stucky.
- 9:28Speaker 2: How do you read that?
- 9:29Speaker 1: Because this is the most bet game of the entire year,
- 9:33Speaker 1: and this is where the percentages perhaps matter more than
- 9:35Speaker 1: any other game that we talk about throughout the year.
- 9:38Speaker 1: And yet when it's tilted, the public has done quite well.
- 9:42Speaker 5: I mean it's seven games who cares? And then it's
- 9:45Speaker 5: one game the public can win. Any one game the
- 9:47Speaker 5: football game played with an oblong ball. There's no like
- 9:50Speaker 5: the mart We pretty much know around where the spread
- 9:53Speaker 5: should be, where these teams are power rated. Like I
- 9:58Speaker 5: don't put any marriage into it at all, zero weight
- 10:00Speaker 5: into that. I will say like a lot of times
- 10:03Speaker 5: people are just gonna bet what they just saw. And
- 10:05Speaker 5: that's that's why I think this line is a little
- 10:07Speaker 5: too high. People just saw the Seahawks beat the Rams,
- 10:10Speaker 5: and then the Patriots, you know, struggle against Jared Stidham,
- 10:14Speaker 5: and their offense doesn't look great. So that's what everyone
- 10:16Speaker 5: is and they're.
- 10:17Speaker 3: Reading stuckies tweets about how easy the Patriots the Patriots' schedule.
- 10:21Speaker 5: So like, there's there's a lot of recency byes that's
- 10:23Speaker 5: always gonna happen when it comes to NFL betting, But
- 10:26Speaker 5: I think it's completely meaningless in a seven game stample size.
- 10:32Speaker 5: Plus you have to remember that, like the books, if
- 10:38Speaker 5: the Seahawks covered, they're like, who cares, Like they're they're
- 10:41Speaker 5: they're gonna get so much volume in this game, and
- 10:43Speaker 5: the props and the total and the parlays like that's
- 10:47Speaker 5: there that I think the Las Vegas sports with the
- 10:50Speaker 5: lost two Super Bowls, I think in fifty years, So yeah,
- 10:55Speaker 5: ultimately it doesn't mean anything.
- 10:58Speaker 2: I just think in general.
- 11:00Speaker 1: The last point on this is that the the idea,
- 11:03Speaker 1: I don't think that you should base your your bet
- 11:07Speaker 1: on the side off of what the public percentages say.
- 11:12Speaker 1: But what I find interesting about it is that you
- 11:14Speaker 1: have a lot of people that are rushing to the
- 11:15Speaker 1: market to bet this that typically don't bet that are
- 11:18Speaker 1: accounting for these numbers, and then you have folks that
- 11:22Speaker 1: are not. They're not reacting to recency bias, and those
- 11:27Speaker 1: things would be counterintuitive. Typically the bet that is counterintuitive
- 11:31Speaker 1: is going to be the one that gets a lower
- 11:33Speaker 1: percentage of the wagers.
- 11:35Speaker 2: And yet that bet has not won over seven games.
- 11:39Speaker 5: That it's completely meaningless as a meaning of sample size.
- 11:42Speaker 5: And I will say, like even if, just like if
- 11:46Speaker 5: you're worrying about all the public, which you shouldn't do,
- 11:49Speaker 5: the like with the public's gonna win this game. Most
- 11:52Speaker 5: people that are coming to bet this game like they're
- 11:54Speaker 5: they're gonna parlay with something. Sports folks would love, They
- 11:57Speaker 5: would not care, would not lose any sweat. There's all
- 12:00Speaker 5: so futures you have to consider, So the futures exposure
- 12:03Speaker 5: for certain sports books. But the sportsbook would jump for
- 12:07Speaker 5: joy and have no m no issues with the Seahawks
- 12:12Speaker 5: covering and as long as they you know, and the
- 12:14Speaker 5: game stayed under and nothing happened, and it was a
- 12:18Speaker 5: ten to nothing final, and no one scored touchdowns and
- 12:21Speaker 5: no one went over their yards.
- 12:22Speaker 2: Okay, here's a question.
- 12:23Speaker 1: Then what what results let's go for both of you
- 12:28Speaker 1: very quick. A result that you think would cost the
- 12:32Speaker 1: sports books money?
- 12:35Speaker 6: What result?
- 12:36Speaker 1: Is it even possible because of how many people bet
- 12:39Speaker 1: dumb parlays?
- 12:40Speaker 3: No, because I think wasn't the wasn't last year's Eagles
- 12:45Speaker 3: super Bowl like the most the public had ever won
- 12:47Speaker 3: or something like that, or the Super Bowl before was,
- 12:50Speaker 3: and it still wasn't even like that insane.
- 12:53Speaker 1: I believe the only time in the last twenty years
- 12:56Speaker 1: or so were the where the actual uh books lost
- 13:00Speaker 1: money was when the Giants beat the Patriots the second time.
- 13:04Speaker 1: I mean, it really just doesn't happen. To Stucky's point,
- 13:07Speaker 1: I just wonder if there's any scenario.
- 13:09Speaker 3: Yeah, people are dumping all their money into parlays, and
- 13:13Speaker 3: I think that that's just how they're how they're gonna
- 13:15Speaker 3: make their money. Because of all the boosts and all
- 13:17Speaker 3: that crap. People think, oh, yeah, this is totally gonna happen.
- 13:20Speaker 4: I just I don't. I don't see away unless this.
- 13:23Speaker 5: Is like, dude, easy that it would have to be in.
- 13:27Speaker 7: Total is like seventy five, Yeah, has three touchdowns thirty
- 13:31Speaker 7: eight thirty five, or like forty two thirty forty one
- 13:36Speaker 7: to thirty five final in overtime, and there's if.
- 13:42Speaker 4: The defense just sits down.
- 13:44Speaker 5: Defense Like there's a defensive special teams score, there's a safety.
- 13:48Speaker 2: Kenneth Walker hits an octopus.
- 13:50Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, there's all those all those random things like
- 13:53Speaker 5: are very high Williams favorite wins, favorite covers parlayed to
- 14:00Speaker 5: the overs, and like everyone that was supposed to score
- 14:03Speaker 5: scores and gives over their yardage. That would probly the
- 14:06Speaker 5: worst case scenario.
- 14:08Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about this injury Stucky. We had
- 14:10Speaker 1: a significant bit of news pop up last night. The
- 14:14Speaker 1: Studs safety the Unicorn, nick Emmon Warri, injured his ankle
- 14:18Speaker 1: and practice. Apparently coaches and players came over to comfort him.
- 14:22Speaker 1: There's a video of him limping into the team hotel.
- 14:26Speaker 1: Action or distraction on this injury news for Ima and.
- 14:28Speaker 5: Warri major action, Like that's something that I'm monitoring.
- 14:34Speaker 3: I have.
- 14:36Speaker 5: The Seahawks team total under I haven't bet the side
- 14:38Speaker 5: yet leaning Patriots. I would bet the Patriots, if even
- 14:42Speaker 5: more is not one hundred percent, are out at this number.
- 14:46Speaker 5: And he's so important to everything that they do. He
- 14:49Speaker 5: enables them to do all of the things that they
- 14:52Speaker 5: do that make their defense at Unicorn. He gives McDonald
- 14:56Speaker 5: ultimate flexibility he found in even more his Hamilton, and
- 15:01Speaker 5: it enables them to play a ton of dime and
- 15:04Speaker 5: do it effectively. They can defend the run, they can
- 15:07Speaker 5: defend heavy packages, they can defend the pass, you know,
- 15:10Speaker 5: without having to ever take even more off the field.
- 15:13Speaker 5: And he is a major part of that defense. People
- 15:19Speaker 5: just spent a week talking about how important even where
- 15:25Speaker 5: it is, and how critical he's been to the success
- 15:28Speaker 5: of that defense, and I agree, I don't think people
- 15:31Speaker 5: are talking enough about his potential injury. I don't have
- 15:34Speaker 5: any insight into how serious or not it is, but
- 15:37Speaker 5: it's something that I'm monitoring, and I think it's certainly
- 15:41Speaker 5: a major late week storyline. And then on the other side,
- 15:47Speaker 5: they give roberts plane like how healthy is he going
- 15:51Speaker 5: to be? Eat in practice again yesterday. He hasn't practiced
- 15:57Speaker 5: in two weeks. He wasn't that effective in the Denver
- 16:03Speaker 5: game early before he left with an injury, and the
- 16:06Speaker 5: Pat's defense is much better with him in there. So
- 16:10Speaker 5: that's another one that I'm monitoring. So those are two
- 16:12Speaker 5: key pieces, one on each defense that could have an
- 16:16Speaker 5: impact on this game.
- 16:18Speaker 1: Harold Landry also on the more positive end of the
- 16:21Speaker 1: injury news was able to practice. He didn't even play
- 16:25Speaker 1: in the AFC Championship game. He's the sack leader for
- 16:27Speaker 1: the New England Patriots. Kenda, have you heard anything on
- 16:31Speaker 1: the optimism or lack thereof around Landry?
- 16:34Speaker 3: Honestly, it's not been a huge topic of conversation around here,
- 16:38Speaker 3: which makes me think either it's worse than people think
- 16:42Speaker 3: or better than people think.
- 16:43Speaker 4: And I really don't know where I side on that.
- 16:46Speaker 2: At the moment, they need all.
- 16:49Speaker 1: They can get, for sure to stop the Seattle attack.
- 16:52Speaker 1: The prop for the total number of songs performed by
- 16:55Speaker 1: Bad Bunny is set at eleven and a half. Mine
- 17:00Speaker 1: seems pretty high. I was doing some total song research.
- 17:03Speaker 1: Rihanna got up to twelve. So Kendra, action or distraction
- 17:08Speaker 1: on betting the under on Bad Bunny total songs performed.
- 17:13Speaker 3: I saw you put this in here, and I did
- 17:15Speaker 3: some research as well, and.
- 17:16Speaker 4: I have wound up on the under strong.
- 17:19Speaker 3: I'm gonna say probably like the nine or ten area,
- 17:22Speaker 3: because if you look at kind of the past performers,
- 17:25Speaker 3: like the reason Rihanna got that's got so high is
- 17:28Speaker 3: because when you think about her songs like she has
- 17:30Speaker 3: those catchy, like you know, choruses of songs, and those
- 17:34Speaker 3: are easy to switch in and out of when they're
- 17:36Speaker 3: like that upbeat, you know, Boots and Cats style music
- 17:40Speaker 3: that you can bop in and out of, Whereas I
- 17:42Speaker 3: think his music is more comparable to some of the
- 17:44Speaker 3: slower artists that have hit that under in the past,
- 17:46Speaker 3: where he's a storyteller in his music, so there has
- 17:50Speaker 3: to be a little bit more time for him to
- 17:52Speaker 3: be able to get that story across before moving on
- 17:55Speaker 3: to the next song.
- 17:56Speaker 4: And also, the rumor has it right now that Cardi
- 17:59Speaker 4: b might.
- 17:59Speaker 3: Be coming on the stage, so if they play I
- 18:02Speaker 3: like It, I think that that means that she stays
- 18:04Speaker 3: around longer and that eats up more time.
- 18:06Speaker 1: Over Under one and a half Bad Bunny song streamed
- 18:10Speaker 1: by Stucky after the Super bowls completed.
- 18:14Speaker 4: I'm gonna go under.
- 18:15Speaker 2: Oh well, Stucky, you want to all right?
- 18:19Speaker 1: Sharp sharp bet sharp bets across the board on the
- 18:23Speaker 1: under there, i'd Stucky, let's dig into it back to
- 18:26Speaker 1: football in a moment. We've got our official plays coming
- 18:29Speaker 1: up Kendri's pickle prop for Super Bowl sixty. But it
- 18:32Speaker 1: is time to dive into the weird, the bizarre, the random.
- 18:36Speaker 1: I'll kick it over to Stucky for his random super
- 18:39Speaker 1: Bowl question of the week.
- 18:40Speaker 6: Hey, this is a dumb question.
- 18:43Speaker 2: Let me ask you a personal question kind of question?
- 18:46Speaker 2: Is that this question?
- 18:50Speaker 5: Let's go, let's keep it super Bowl. Well, actually, the
- 18:53Speaker 5: first thing I'll say is, I you mentioned that your
- 18:56Speaker 5: kid lost his first tooth, And did I ever tell
- 19:00Speaker 5: you that my tooth fairy story? So when I was
- 19:06Speaker 5: a kid, well it was winter time, so it was
- 19:12Speaker 5: like December or January, and there was a huge winter
- 19:18Speaker 5: storm and we lost power in our house, and we
- 19:27Speaker 5: went to my uncle's house and we slept in like
- 19:34Speaker 5: all me and my cousins. We slept in the basement.
- 19:37Speaker 5: I remember we had like sleeping bags and we just
- 19:41Speaker 5: made it like this fun thing. But I lost my
- 19:45Speaker 5: my tooth. What dide? Did you lose your first tooth?
- 19:47Speaker 5: That is it different for everybody. I think it was
- 19:54Speaker 5: like seven. I don't know if it was my first
- 19:55Speaker 5: tooth or not, but it was definitely at an age
- 19:59Speaker 5: where my parents were still thinking that I didn't I
- 20:03Speaker 5: thought the tooth fairy was a thing, but I kind
- 20:06Speaker 5: of knew that it wasn't.
- 20:08Speaker 2: But my dad had that figured out by three, So
- 20:12Speaker 2: we go over.
- 20:13Speaker 5: And so I lost my tooth that day. So I
- 20:15Speaker 5: brought the tooth with me. And then I'm like, well,
- 20:17Speaker 5: the tooth fairies and I didn't want to go with
- 20:19Speaker 5: my uncles because, uh I was I remember, I was
- 20:22Speaker 5: like still skeptical if that the tooth fairy was was real.
- 20:27Speaker 5: But so I was like, I don't want to go
- 20:28Speaker 5: because the tooth fairy is not going to know to
- 20:31Speaker 5: where I am if I'm not so. But my parents like,
- 20:34Speaker 5: now they they know where you are, no matter where
- 20:36Speaker 5: you are. So I go there. I go down the
- 20:39Speaker 5: basement in the sleep bag. I put the tooth under
- 20:42Speaker 5: my pillow, and then my dad was upstairs, and uh
- 20:49Speaker 5: was got pretty hammered. And then so he comes down
- 20:58Speaker 5: at like three in the morning. We were still up
- 21:02Speaker 5: the kind of still up, kind of drifting to sleep,
- 21:05Speaker 5: and my dad comes down at like three in the
- 21:09Speaker 5: morning in the dark, and uh, he had like a
- 21:15Speaker 5: handful of coins. And then he comes down and then
- 21:20Speaker 5: he trips on my over my brother in the sleeping bag,
- 21:23Speaker 5: falls onto like right on top of me, and then
- 21:26Speaker 5: the coins go everywhere. And then I looked at him,
- 21:29Speaker 5: and he looked at me. So that's how I confirmed
- 21:34Speaker 5: that the tooth Fairy wasn't a thing. So a very
- 21:40Speaker 5: awkward moment for him. I like, what do you say?
- 21:42Speaker 2: Then like pretend to fly away a little bit.
- 21:47Speaker 5: I think he was like the tooth Fairy told me
- 21:49Speaker 5: to give this to you couldn't get down here or something.
- 21:52Speaker 2: I don't know who fairy got loaded on bourbon. Sorry,
- 21:54Speaker 2: couldn't make it downstairs.
- 21:57Speaker 5: Yes, that was funny. What is your worst your best
- 22:02Speaker 5: end or worst super Bowl memory? Like from a day
- 22:07Speaker 5: viewing or it could be a player a game. My
- 22:13Speaker 5: worst by far was Patriots Falcons twenty eight to three,
- 22:25Speaker 5: put Falcons plus four and a half. I also had
- 22:27Speaker 5: the under Falcons plus four and a half, one of
- 22:29Speaker 5: the biggest bets I've ever made. I always see these
- 22:31Speaker 5: trends about the four plus point underdogs that always cover.
- 22:34Speaker 5: I had plus four and a half with the Falcons.
- 22:35Speaker 5: They ended up closing I think three three and a half.
- 22:37Speaker 5: But that was I was at my friend. Our friends
- 22:41Speaker 5: asked me we always have a super Bowl party. We'd
- 22:43Speaker 5: stay up all night the night before, we'd drink, we'd
- 22:46Speaker 5: roast a butt out on the smoker and then just
- 22:50Speaker 5: make it a whole weekend. Everyone was betting the Falcons
- 22:55Speaker 5: with me. It's one of my biggest bets ever. At
- 22:57Speaker 5: one point we were jumping around like in a circle
- 23:00Speaker 5: up twenty eight to the three in front of the
- 23:02Speaker 5: TV by the end of the game. By the when
- 23:04Speaker 5: it went to overtime the coin toss. Once the Patriots
- 23:07Speaker 5: won the coin toss, it was a morgue at the party.
- 23:12Speaker 5: And then the Patriots score a touchdown that was absolutely miserable.
- 23:18Speaker 5: Had to go to work the next day. It was.
- 23:21Speaker 5: That was brutal twenty seventeen, last time I worked in
- 23:24Speaker 5: corporate America. Ah, so, yeah, that was the worst by far.
- 23:29Speaker 5: Best is Raven's winning Super Bowls. But how about you.
- 23:33Speaker 1: I was nine years old the forty nine Ers were
- 23:36Speaker 1: playing the Chargers. That was Steve Young's Super Bowl, and
- 23:40Speaker 1: my parents dragged me to their friend's house and their
- 23:46Speaker 1: kids sucked and they were around my age, but they
- 23:48Speaker 1: were just we were not friends. They were so annoying.
- 23:52Speaker 1: The parents were weird. I just remember having the worst
- 23:56Speaker 1: time at this party. I'm nine years old, and I
- 23:59Speaker 1: decided that moment, I am not doing Super Bowl parties anymore.
- 24:05Speaker 2: I'm done. I gave it up. At nine. It was
- 24:07Speaker 2: that bad.
- 24:08Speaker 1: And while my dog is freaking out, he's upset about
- 24:11Speaker 1: it too, and uh, yeah, that's that's the one for me.
- 24:15Speaker 2: Super Bowl.
- 24:16Speaker 1: I forget what number that super Bowl was, but it
- 24:19Speaker 1: was forty nine Ers, Chargers.
- 24:20Speaker 2: It was terrible experience.
- 24:23Speaker 3: My best was gonna be when the Patriots played the
- 24:27Speaker 3: Eagles in the Super Bowl in Jacksonville because the next
- 24:30Speaker 3: day at school, I was in third grade and everyone
- 24:32Speaker 3: was like.
- 24:32Speaker 4: Oh my god, did you stay up and watch the
- 24:34Speaker 4: Super Bowl?
- 24:34Speaker 3: And it was just super fun that we had something
- 24:36Speaker 3: that cool in town. And it's one of my first
- 24:38Speaker 3: super Bowl memories. My Actually, maybe my best was my
- 24:44Speaker 3: junior year up here at You and H when it
- 24:46Speaker 3: was Brady's last super Bowl with the Patriots, because I
- 24:50Speaker 3: got to go out and party all night that night,
- 24:52Speaker 3: and the streets were flooded and people were like lighting
- 24:54Speaker 3: stuff on fire and climbing all the buildings at school.
- 25:00Speaker 4: I don't know if I have a worst. I don't
- 25:02Speaker 4: think I've had a worst. Actually, I got a fight.
- 25:05Speaker 3: I got a fight with a boy a couple of
- 25:07Speaker 3: years ago during one of the chief Super Bowls. I
- 25:09Speaker 3: was pretty drunk, and I don't remember what year would
- 25:11Speaker 3: have been I think probably twenty twenty two.
- 25:16Speaker 4: But that wasn't that terrible. He kind of sucked. I
- 25:18Speaker 4: don't know. I don't think I have a bad one,
- 25:19Speaker 4: only good.
- 25:20Speaker 1: I did Panthers. My friend got so drunky. We had
- 25:23Speaker 1: to go to the hospital and he had to get
- 25:24Speaker 1: a stomach pumped. That was That was a rough one.
- 25:27Speaker 3: Actually, no, my worst My best friend got so hammered
- 25:30Speaker 3: during the Super Bowl.
- 25:32Speaker 4: That was also one of my favorite nights.
- 25:34Speaker 3: That she tried to punch me in the face and
- 25:36Speaker 3: I had to put her in an uber home.
- 25:40Speaker 5: That that reminded me of. That reminds me of not
- 25:42Speaker 5: the punch, but the drinking I did. I don't think
- 25:45Speaker 5: I missed an NFL Sunday Slate. I don't in my life,
- 25:49Speaker 5: you know, since I started watching football at primetime NFL
- 25:54Speaker 5: game anything like. I mean, I was listening at listening
- 25:57Speaker 5: to the red zone while my you know, right after
- 25:59Speaker 5: my kid was being born, I had at streaming. So
- 26:03Speaker 5: but I did miss the Super Bowl. I missed an
- 26:08Speaker 5: entire Super Bowl except for one play. I was out
- 26:13Speaker 5: this when I was in college.
- 26:14Speaker 2: You were blackout at GW No.
- 26:16Speaker 5: No, no, I like legitimately missed it. I was in college,
- 26:21Speaker 5: went to GW. We were down visiting my friend at JMU,
- 26:25Speaker 5: which was a great party school at least at the time,
- 26:28Speaker 5: and we were up and just partying the entire weekend.
- 26:33Speaker 5: And then it was like Sunday at ten in the morning,
- 26:38Speaker 5: and we were My friend came down from Philly, picked
- 26:43Speaker 5: me up on the way, and then drove me down
- 26:46Speaker 5: on like a Friday. He had to go back and
- 26:48Speaker 5: then he wanted to go back to get the Philly
- 26:50Speaker 5: bug done to Super Bowl, so he drove me back.
- 26:53Speaker 5: We ended up getting back and we stopped for lunch.
- 26:55Speaker 5: We got back at like three point thirty four o'clock. Exhausted.
- 27:00Speaker 5: I haven't slept in a couple of days. I was
- 27:02Speaker 5: so I was going to go out for the Super Bowl,
- 27:03Speaker 5: but then I decided against it. I was like, I'm
- 27:05Speaker 5: just so beat. So I was like, I'm just gonna
- 27:08Speaker 5: watch it in my apartment, and so I like ordered
- 27:13Speaker 5: some food and then laid down on my couch. By
- 27:20Speaker 5: the time like I got all situated, there was like
- 27:22Speaker 5: an hour till kick I ate, and then I was
- 27:27Speaker 5: just laying on my couch, had all my bets in.
- 27:30Speaker 5: I saw Devin Hester return the opening kick. This is
- 27:33Speaker 5: Bear's Cult super Bowl. Devin has to return the opening
- 27:36Speaker 5: kick that I woke up with with the news on
- 27:42Speaker 5: I fell asleep and didn't wake up until after the
- 27:45Speaker 5: super Bowl. Weirdest feeling like I missed an entire like
- 27:50Speaker 5: so and then I mean the Cult won. So all
- 27:52Speaker 5: I saw was.
- 27:53Speaker 4: Try the last time you slept in your life.
- 27:55Speaker 1: And if that happened now, because Twitter wasn't a thing,
- 27:58Speaker 1: then if that happened now and we didn't see any
- 28:01Speaker 1: stucky tweets rolling through the timeline, I would be convinced
- 28:04Speaker 1: you were.
- 28:04Speaker 3: I would call like a I would have Gifford like
- 28:07Speaker 3: message your wife on the internet and make sure you
- 28:09Speaker 3: were alive. I did miss the first half of the
- 28:12Speaker 3: Brady Buck Super Bowl because we were coming back from
- 28:14Speaker 3: Radio Row and our network cheaped out and sent us
- 28:17Speaker 3: on that flight out of Tampa.
- 28:20Speaker 2: Wow.
- 28:22Speaker 1: That was my only experience on Radio Row that year.
- 28:26Speaker 1: That's another worst experience was the year the Bucks were
- 28:28Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl in Tampa and then the Radio
- 28:33Speaker 1: Row was a ghost town.
- 28:35Speaker 2: I mean there they were talking, it was rolling. Yeah,
- 28:37Speaker 2: it was I think.
- 28:38Speaker 1: The most famous person I interviewed there was like the
- 28:40Speaker 1: city Commissioner of Tampa.
- 28:42Speaker 2: It was it was Arris.
- 28:44Speaker 4: Was just some drunk dude on the street. Was probably
- 28:46Speaker 4: the best interview I got.
- 28:48Speaker 2: It was such a waste of time. Still to come.
- 28:50Speaker 1: Two Kings and a Queen get nominated in our Super
- 28:53Speaker 1: Bowl parlay. But first, a word about Draft Kings from
- 28:56Speaker 1: the first Lady.
- 28:57Speaker 3: The favorite podcast has teamed up with DraftKings Book, where
- 29:00Speaker 3: new customers can bet five dollars and get three hundred
- 29:03Speaker 3: dollars back.
- 29:03Speaker 4: In bonus bets if your bet wins.
- 29:05Speaker 3: Love the thrill of live betting, DraftKings has got you covered.
- 29:08Speaker 3: Bet live on star player props and in progress games
- 29:11Speaker 3: right as they happen to get started to use promo
- 29:14Speaker 3: code favorites when signing up with DraftKings Again, use code
- 29:17Speaker 3: favorites when signing up and bet five bucks to get
- 29:19Speaker 3: three hundred back in bonus bets.
- 29:21Speaker 4: If your bet wins, the crown is yours.
- 29:24Speaker 2: It is time for.
- 29:25Speaker 1: The triumphant super return of Kendrew's Pickle prop.
- 29:29Speaker 2: Let's pop the jar back open. What are we looking at?
- 29:33Speaker 5: We're in a pickle now, I'm really gonna pickle now?
- 29:36Speaker 6: All right, look we're gonna pickle again.
- 29:38Speaker 3: Hey, so this was the I've already put this in
- 29:44Speaker 3: to the action app, but I put this in my
- 29:46Speaker 3: pickle prop because I'm hoping that it will make people
- 29:50Speaker 3: think as hard about Jake Bobo as I did, because
- 29:53Speaker 3: I don't know if that's punishment or not.
- 29:55Speaker 4: But I did a lot of Jake Bobo research, and
- 29:57Speaker 4: I have him over half a receiving yard.
- 30:00Speaker 3: I was looking at the difference in price between him
- 30:02Speaker 3: to have a receiving yard and to have a reception,
- 30:04Speaker 3: and Kravitz and I went over this prior to us
- 30:07Speaker 3: hopping on here, but it was plus one point eighty
- 30:09Speaker 3: for a receiving yard and plus one thirty to have
- 30:13Speaker 3: a reception. Obviously, he has to get beyond the line
- 30:16Speaker 3: of scrimmage, which is probably the discrepancy in price. But
- 30:20Speaker 3: I think because Jake Bobo is a hometown kid here
- 30:23Speaker 3: in Massachusetts playing in a super Bowl against the Patriots,
- 30:26Speaker 3: I think that they try and target him, try and
- 30:28Speaker 3: get him a catch in this, just as like a
- 30:30Speaker 3: hey kid, you're playing in the Super Bowl against your
- 30:32Speaker 3: hometown team type of thing. So I thought there was
- 30:34Speaker 3: value in doing this, and I've had so much Jake
- 30:38Speaker 3: Bobo on my timeline that I want a reason to
- 30:41Speaker 3: low key cheer.
- 30:41Speaker 4: For him because he's from like North Andover or something.
- 30:44Speaker 3: But I, yeah, Jake Bobo, I've put way too much
- 30:47Speaker 3: thought into this, so it had me in a pickle.
- 30:49Speaker 4: Are you in a pickle about Jake Bobo?
- 30:51Speaker 1: I do like the idea of going price up on
- 30:54Speaker 1: the yards rather than the reception, because if Bobo does
- 30:57Speaker 1: get involved, we've seen him not catch the ball very
- 30:59Speaker 1: much this yea, but when he does it's usually.
- 31:02Speaker 2: Past the sticks. So energy, yes, very much so.
- 31:07Speaker 1: But I've done no Bobo research among all the research
- 31:10Speaker 1: I have done, so that is all the analysis I have.
- 31:13Speaker 5: You, I have no idea. I mean that just comes
- 31:15Speaker 5: down to the game plan. So when I would go
- 31:17Speaker 5: with the higher upside, like do they want to how
- 31:21Speaker 5: much they want to put him on the field take
- 31:22Speaker 5: sheets feed off? I don't know, but uh yeah, that's
- 31:27Speaker 5: not my specialty. That's going to come down to game plan,
- 31:30Speaker 5: how much they want to use the snack count targets.
- 31:33Speaker 5: But I don't hate it.
- 31:35Speaker 1: Let's get an alt line going in there too, because
- 31:37Speaker 1: if he gets a catch, he's probably going past ten yards.
- 31:40Speaker 1: So I think we could get some we could have
- 31:43Speaker 1: some fun with that one too. It is time for
- 31:46Speaker 1: the reason you all came here this week, our two
- 31:48Speaker 1: Kings and a Queen parlay. Reminder for how this works.
- 31:51Speaker 1: Because it's been a couple of weeks, we each nominate
- 31:54Speaker 1: two plays, see if we can find some general consensus
- 31:56Speaker 1: on the board. Evan Abrams will break ties if they exist,
- 32:00Speaker 1: and we will eventually land on our team built parlay,
- 32:04Speaker 1: our first ever as a trio for a Super Bowl.
- 32:16Speaker 1: Kendra get Us.
- 32:17Speaker 3: Started, all right, So I'm going to give you guys
- 32:19Speaker 3: a couple extra options just because I'm nice like that
- 32:23Speaker 3: and I've been all over it. One Cooper Cup for
- 32:25Speaker 3: in anytime plus two to fifty.
- 32:27Speaker 4: I just think.
- 32:28Speaker 3: I'm in the camp that I expect the JSN Christian
- 32:31Speaker 3: Gonzalez battle to be the primary matchup for him. So
- 32:34Speaker 3: I think that that's going to free up Cooper Cup.
- 32:36Speaker 3: Plus two to fifty feels like really good odds for him.
- 32:38Speaker 3: He's obviously played in a super Bowl before, scored in
- 32:40Speaker 3: Super Bowl before, has played really well in big moments
- 32:43Speaker 3: in his career. I mean, I get the angle that
- 32:45Speaker 3: people have had that he scored against the Rams last week,
- 32:47Speaker 3: because it's like the revenge thing they wanted to get
- 32:49Speaker 3: him involved, get him in the end zone, whatever. For me,
- 32:52Speaker 3: it's more so him showing up in those big moments,
- 32:54Speaker 3: and I think that that's a good price for that.
- 32:56Speaker 3: Or I'll be nice and go either quarterback for a pick,
- 32:59Speaker 3: because I expect both of them to have one in
- 33:01Speaker 3: this game.
- 33:03Speaker 1: I think I like the quarterback pick. We have to
- 33:06Speaker 1: pick one. I'm gonna go with Sam Darnold.
- 33:08Speaker 3: Because I've got both of them logged in the app,
- 33:10Speaker 3: so I'm open to either.
- 33:12Speaker 1: I think the pressure that New England can create in
- 33:16Speaker 1: the interior of the offensive line of Seattle is going
- 33:19Speaker 1: to force Donald into some old habits. And I think
- 33:25Speaker 1: he's also going to try and force feed JSN.
- 33:28Speaker 2: Why wouldn't you so, I think.
- 33:31Speaker 5: Over I think there is there an over one and
- 33:34Speaker 5: a half interceptions.
- 33:36Speaker 2: In the game. Yeah, there's gotta be. I mean there's
- 33:39Speaker 2: there just has to be.
- 33:40Speaker 5: What is that? I kind of like that. Do you
- 33:42Speaker 5: like that? Over one and a totally yeah?
- 33:44Speaker 4: I would go with that.
- 33:44Speaker 3: I mean, I parlayed both of them to have an interception.
- 33:48Speaker 5: So because I like, I don't mind either they throw
- 33:52Speaker 5: two interceptions either. I think there's a chance.
- 33:55Speaker 3: That it's a parlay though, So if we want like
- 33:58Speaker 3: the more likely scenario, we don't have to get too
- 34:02Speaker 3: crazy with it.
- 34:03Speaker 4: But I really don't care. I'm open to that as well.
- 34:05Speaker 1: Let me Yeah, this is going to be the toughest
- 34:08Speaker 1: time that we have had trying to actually put this
- 34:12Speaker 1: together on the site on the fly, because.
- 34:16Speaker 2: There is so there's so much stuff.
- 34:20Speaker 1: So if anybody wants to try and figure that out
- 34:22Speaker 1: as we continue to come through this, definitely we'll do
- 34:24Speaker 1: something with the interceptions.
- 34:25Speaker 5: I'll look as we're going moving on.
- 34:27Speaker 1: Okay, all right, so we're good on the interceptions. Yeah,
- 34:32Speaker 1: all right, Stucky, you're up.
- 34:35Speaker 5: First. One is going to be Seattle team total under
- 34:40Speaker 5: twenty five and a half points. I like the under.
- 34:45Speaker 5: I like the Patriots from a numbers perspective. Combine them
- 34:50Speaker 5: you get Seattle going under. I think this will be
- 34:52Speaker 5: a lower scoring game. I like. Here's how I think
- 34:57Speaker 5: the game plays out. I think it's gonna start slow,
- 34:59Speaker 5: as most Super Bowls. I think it's gonna be a
- 35:00Speaker 5: fuel position battle. I think both offenses are gonna be
- 35:04Speaker 5: in the third and long known passing situations a lot.
- 35:08Speaker 5: What does that mean, Well, that's gonna lead to Drake
- 35:11Speaker 5: may sacks potential mistakes. One thing I'm worried about with
- 35:15Speaker 5: his total is just where do those mistakes happen the
- 35:17Speaker 5: variants and that, but they could also happen in the
- 35:19Speaker 5: red zone. They could kill drives, but it's gonna lead
- 35:22Speaker 5: to kill drive killing sacks because I do think you
- 35:26Speaker 5: know that, especially the left side of that Patriots offensive line,
- 35:29Speaker 5: with the simulated pressures that the Seahawks use their inability
- 35:33Speaker 5: of their receivers to get separation against the Seattle secondary,
- 35:37Speaker 5: I think it's gonna be tough sledding because remember, both
- 35:39Speaker 5: of these run defenses are elite, and I don't think
- 35:42Speaker 5: any either team is going to have much success running
- 35:45Speaker 5: the ball on a consistent basis, which means you're gonna
- 35:48Speaker 5: have third and seven, third and eight going up against
- 35:52Speaker 5: the Seahawks defense. Good luck. On the other side, I
- 35:55Speaker 5: think it's going to be just as difficult for Sam Darnold.
- 35:57Speaker 5: He's gonna have to deal with some Patriot it's blitz
- 36:00Speaker 5: looks he's gonna have to deal with a lot of
- 36:01Speaker 5: the stunts that the Patriots use. And then you mentioned
- 36:04Speaker 5: this the interior pressure. The Patriots have two of the
- 36:07Speaker 5: better interior defensive line and in terms of pressure rate
- 36:10Speaker 5: in the league, going up against a vulnerable interior offensive line.
- 36:15Speaker 5: When is Sam Darnold most vulnerable when he's dealing with
- 36:19Speaker 5: interior pressure. So I think it's gonna be tough sledding
- 36:22Speaker 5: for both offenses. I think both defensive lines have a
- 36:25Speaker 5: major advantage in this game, and that will be the
- 36:28Speaker 5: key storyline and trend throughout. So kind of like the
- 36:31Speaker 5: under kind of like taking the points of the Patriots,
- 36:33Speaker 5: let's combine them, go with Seahawks team total under twenty
- 36:37Speaker 5: five and a half. The other will go with let's
- 36:42Speaker 5: go Hunter Henry over thirty nine and a half for
- 36:46Speaker 5: seeding yards. I just think this is a great matchup
- 36:51Speaker 5: for him. By the way, he had I think one
- 36:53Speaker 5: hundred and ten yards against this Seattle, this McDonald defense
- 36:57Speaker 5: last year when these two teams played in the when
- 36:59Speaker 5: the Patriot it's were absolutely terrible on the season. The
- 37:03Speaker 5: Seahawks are they funneled to tight ends, they funnel to
- 37:06Speaker 5: running backs. They don't give up explosive plays like they're
- 37:08Speaker 5: going to allow looks to the tight ends. And Drake
- 37:10Speaker 5: May's gonna have to do that with it. The state
- 37:12Speaker 5: of his offensive line, with the simulated pressures. With the
- 37:15Speaker 5: ability of Seattle to ge pressure, He's gonna have to
- 37:17Speaker 5: mump it off. He's gonna have to get rid of
- 37:18Speaker 5: the ball quick. He's gonna have to, you know, throw
- 37:20Speaker 5: to Henry a bunch. I think he could get a
- 37:22Speaker 5: ton of targets here. The Seahawks on the season allowed
- 37:27Speaker 5: an average of six catches on eight about eight and
- 37:30Speaker 5: a half targets for sixty four yards to tight ends. Henry,
- 37:34Speaker 5: you know, he averaged three point three catches on four
- 37:38Speaker 5: point seven targets for about forty two and a half yards.
- 37:42Speaker 5: But keep in mind, the Patriots played a clown car schedule,
- 37:47Speaker 5: and even in the playoffs.
- 37:50Speaker 4: They fled lightly.
- 37:52Speaker 5: They were in weather, and but all year they were
- 37:55Speaker 5: up a lot right so that they weren't in trailing
- 37:58Speaker 5: game scripts. They didn't have to throw a bunch in
- 38:00Speaker 5: the second half of games like they were blowing out
- 38:02Speaker 5: a ton of teams. Like when you play the you know,
- 38:05Speaker 5: the Jets and the Dolphins every other week, you didn't
- 38:08Speaker 5: have to throw that much. So like Henry's Henry, if
- 38:11Speaker 5: the Patriots, and they're more likely than not to be
- 38:13Speaker 5: in a trailing game script have to throw more and
- 38:15Speaker 5: in this matchup in particular there, I don't think you'll
- 38:17Speaker 5: be able to run the ball at all, So like
- 38:19Speaker 5: where and I don't think the ride receivers are going
- 38:21Speaker 5: to be able to get separations. Where are all the
- 38:23Speaker 5: targets going? They gotta go to Henry a lot of them,
- 38:27Speaker 5: Like it's going to be Henry in the backs?
- 38:29Speaker 2: Why not receptions? Then on?
- 38:31Speaker 5: I like receptions too, but I think that there's a
- 38:33Speaker 5: chance he gets I like the over longest reception of
- 38:39Speaker 5: seventeen and a half. Two.
- 38:40Speaker 4: You just said something that made me think about my pick. Though.
- 38:44Speaker 3: If you're in the camp that they're going to beat,
- 38:47Speaker 3: the Drake's going to be kind of playing from behind
- 38:51Speaker 3: and that's going to be their mo. Do you think
- 38:53Speaker 3: that he is more likely to throw an interception if
- 38:56Speaker 3: he's playing from behind and kind of getting you know,
- 38:59Speaker 3: crazy or lazy with that.
- 39:02Speaker 5: I mean, that's just like the more likely snaro. Yeah,
- 39:06Speaker 5: I I think both at quarterbacks are going to throw
- 39:10Speaker 5: an interception. I mean, yeah, it's the odds are probably close.
- 39:14Speaker 4: I put him in the chat.
- 39:17Speaker 5: Minus one thirty eight may minus one forty two over
- 39:22Speaker 5: two and a half.
- 39:24Speaker 1: So there there is no prop on DK from what
- 39:26Speaker 1: I've researched very quickly of over one and a half
- 39:30Speaker 1: total interceptions in the game, but there is an over
- 39:33Speaker 1: two and a half total turnovers, So then we would
- 39:35Speaker 1: also have Drake May and Sam Darnold fumbles in there.
- 39:39Speaker 2: Yah.
- 39:39Speaker 4: I like that.
- 39:40Speaker 5: Okay, I'm gonna put Evan on the case to see
- 39:42Speaker 5: if there's anything else, but I don't mind that as now,
- 39:45Speaker 5: but to get back to just to finish off Henry,
- 39:49Speaker 5: So yeah, I mean on the over the course of
- 39:53Speaker 5: the season, the Seahawks allowed twenty two This is in
- 39:56Speaker 5: nineteen games, twenty two catches of seventeen plus yards to
- 39:59Speaker 5: tie ends. And Henry had a seventeen plus yard catch
- 40:05Speaker 5: in twelve of twenty games. And remember clown car schedule.
- 40:08Speaker 5: They were not playing from behind a lot, and they
- 40:10Speaker 5: were playing teams that they could run on, which they're
- 40:11Speaker 5: not gonna be able to do here. And speaking of
- 40:13Speaker 5: tight end targets, McDaniels his last five Super Bowls, and
- 40:18Speaker 5: it's not all Gronk was three of the five. He
- 40:20Speaker 5: had Aaron Hernandez and Martell's Bennett were the primary tight
- 40:24Speaker 5: ends and two of the five. But his last five
- 40:27Speaker 5: Super Bowls, McDaniels offenses at the primary tight end averaged
- 40:33Speaker 5: six point eight catches for eighty yards. Here are the
- 40:36Speaker 5: target numbers seventeen, eleven, six, fifteen, and seven. I think
- 40:42Speaker 5: Henry gets like seven or eight targets here, and I
- 40:47Speaker 5: think he gets fifty plus yards, but we'll go over
- 40:50Speaker 5: thirty nine and a half for Hunter Henry. I'm also
- 40:54Speaker 5: on his over receptions and over longest catch.
- 40:57Speaker 1: I do like receptions better. The number week get is
- 41:00Speaker 1: four plus or over three and a half. If Emon
- 41:03Speaker 1: Worri is alright, which we're not one hundred percent sure
- 41:06Speaker 1: on right now, he's going to erase somebody. It could
- 41:09Speaker 1: be de Mario Douglas, could be Hunter Henry, and that's
- 41:13Speaker 1: my concern with going that route, as if that is
- 41:15Speaker 1: the game plan, then that could be dead on arrival.
- 41:18Speaker 1: I think I like both. I think I would vote
- 41:23Speaker 1: Seattle team total under twenty five and a half.
- 41:25Speaker 2: I'd be surprised if they get past that.
- 41:28Speaker 3: I was gonna say, I'm gonna be the Hunter Henry
- 41:31Speaker 3: receptions over because I see this game going one of
- 41:34Speaker 3: two ways. Either this is like a seventeen to ten
- 41:37Speaker 3: outcome if both of these quarterbacks, you know, play really
- 41:41Speaker 3: bad versions of their worst football, which would be obviously
- 41:44Speaker 3: a hit for the.
- 41:45Speaker 4: Team total under. But the other way I see this.
- 41:47Speaker 3: Going is Seattle just beats the shit out of them,
- 41:50Speaker 3: And that's my fear is that this offense just takes
- 41:54Speaker 3: it to the pads, and the pads scoring can't keep up.
- 41:57Speaker 4: So I'm probably and once again that will to them
- 42:00Speaker 4: playing from behind.
- 42:01Speaker 3: So I want to say Hunter Henry receptions over Evan.
- 42:06Speaker 8: I love both of these, to be honest with you,
- 42:08Speaker 8: So I think it's difficult kind of choosing between the two.
- 42:11Speaker 6: The one thing I did just look out quickly the Patriots.
- 42:14Speaker 6: Yeah there give me tails.
- 42:16Speaker 8: When the Patriots have trailed this year, Henry is twenty.
- 42:19Speaker 6: Three of two point fifty two.
- 42:20Speaker 8: Diggs is twenty six to two eighty six, So they
- 42:24Speaker 8: are both equally as involved in the very small amount
- 42:28Speaker 8: of time New England has trailed this year. If I
- 42:31Speaker 8: had to pick one of the two, though, I think
- 42:34Speaker 8: I would go as stuck in Henry. I think you know,
- 42:37Speaker 8: he's also it's eleven yards per reception when they've trailed,
- 42:40Speaker 8: which is kind of ridiculous for its height end, So
- 42:43Speaker 8: I'll go Hunter Henry, and.
- 42:45Speaker 6: I think they both hit though to be honest with you.
- 42:48Speaker 5: Are we going over yards or over receptions? I'll let
- 42:50Speaker 5: you decide of them.
- 42:51Speaker 8: I mean I kind of like the over is three
- 42:53Speaker 8: and a half, so you're asking for four more? Yeah,
- 42:56Speaker 8: I think I'd go four and more.
- 42:58Speaker 2: Okay, all right, we got that, got that locked in.
- 43:01Speaker 1: My nominees will be the first quarter under at seven
- 43:06Speaker 1: and a half or the Patriots plus the four and
- 43:10Speaker 1: a half.
- 43:11Speaker 2: I do think a five could pop up, as it did.
- 43:14Speaker 1: Earlier in the week. I think New England is being
- 43:15Speaker 1: underestimated here. I firmly believe that if this game were
- 43:18Speaker 1: played in the regular season, if these two are still even,
- 43:22Speaker 1: let's neutral cite this, they're playing in Brazil or something,
- 43:25Speaker 1: the line would be slice in a half of where
- 43:27Speaker 1: it is right now. This is recency bias. This is
- 43:31Speaker 1: Drake May's shoulder paranoia that hit the market and Seattle
- 43:37Speaker 1: love that continues to fuel. Why would the books move
- 43:40Speaker 1: it they continue taking Seattle money. What I mean, it
- 43:43Speaker 1: feels like exclusively at this point. We've talked about the
- 43:46Speaker 1: betting splits earlier, over sixty percent of the bets on
- 43:49Speaker 1: the Seattle Seahawks. I think we're getting major value on
- 43:52Speaker 1: the Patriots here and if this game or any other
- 43:55Speaker 1: game throughout the season, all three of us would be
- 43:58Speaker 1: pounding the table for New England play plus four and
- 44:00Speaker 1: a half, no doubt in my mind. I think one
- 44:03Speaker 1: of the biggest mistakes anybody can make going into the
- 44:05Speaker 1: Super Bowl is to treat the game as if it's
- 44:08Speaker 1: like a different just a completely different game that we're playing.
- 44:12Speaker 2: It's not.
- 44:12Speaker 1: It's still football game. It's still sixty minutes. The field
- 44:16Speaker 1: dimensions are the exact same. There are pressure aspects, there's
- 44:20Speaker 1: a long halftime show, there are things to take into account,
- 44:23Speaker 1: but it's still a football game, and Pats plus four
- 44:26Speaker 1: and a half is simply good value. The other one
- 44:28Speaker 1: is the first quarter under seven and a half, and
- 44:31Speaker 1: that is more in line with looking at this from
- 44:34Speaker 1: a Super Bowl perspective. Pretty strong trend here, and it
- 44:38Speaker 1: makes sense too, especially with these two teams. You have
- 44:40Speaker 1: Drake may Sam Darnold that have never been in this position.
- 44:44Speaker 1: I would expect their offensive coordinators to be pretty cautious
- 44:47Speaker 1: with the game plan early on. And we've seen teams
- 44:51Speaker 1: with much better offenses than these two, at least much
- 44:54Speaker 1: better quarterback play go under in the first quarter. Last year,
- 44:58Speaker 1: Mahomes and Hurts Round two seven points scored in the
- 45:02Speaker 1: first quarter. Those two also had Super Bowl experience. The
- 45:06Speaker 1: game still went under in the first quarter. Chiefs Niners
- 45:09Speaker 1: zero points scored in the first quarter in Seattle's defense
- 45:12Speaker 1: number two in the NFL in terms of points per
- 45:14Speaker 1: game allowed in the first So those are my nominees.
- 45:19Speaker 2: Kendrick, where do you vote?
- 45:21Speaker 3: I say first quarter under because both teams obviously have
- 45:24Speaker 3: baller defenses, and I'm with you.
- 45:25Speaker 4: I expect some.
- 45:26Speaker 3: Jitters from Donald and May to start, and definitely some
- 45:31Speaker 3: conservative play calling to start as well.
- 45:33Speaker 5: Stucky, I can't go with the first quarter under. I
- 45:35Speaker 5: mean I used to bet the first quarter under every year,
- 45:37Speaker 5: but it was always it would have been ten five
- 45:40Speaker 5: years ago, so I mean books have caught up on this,
- 45:43Speaker 5: but I think they're over the past ten years. It's
- 45:46Speaker 5: the average has been less than seven.
- 45:47Speaker 2: But this is.
- 45:50Speaker 5: You're you're really paying for this one now, I I mean,
- 45:56Speaker 5: Big Daniels, for what it's worth, For like twenty years,
- 45:58Speaker 5: the Patriots didn't score in the first quarter, even with Brady.
- 46:01Speaker 5: It would always be like seven zero zeros earo three zero.
- 46:06Speaker 5: But I do find it funny that you were like,
- 46:08Speaker 5: don't treat this game as this is just the same
- 46:11Speaker 5: as any other game, and then your next bet is
- 46:13Speaker 5: about this being a different game.
- 46:16Speaker 1: I think it starts a different game and then it
- 46:18Speaker 1: becomes it's just a regular game.
- 46:22Speaker 5: It starts a regular game, it starts it starts with
- 46:26Speaker 5: irregular and then it's a long time and then it
- 46:31Speaker 5: comes back to the regular game.
- 46:33Speaker 1: There are there are two scenarios where I think the
- 46:35Speaker 1: game is very different the beginning because of the pressure involved.
- 46:39Speaker 1: This is the most important moment in all of these
- 46:41Speaker 1: people's lives, and it hits you the adrenaline that's been
- 46:44Speaker 1: pumping through your veins throughout the course of the day.
- 46:46Speaker 1: It's this crescendo moment everybody's nervous to fuck up.
- 46:50Speaker 2: And then at the end of halftime.
- 46:53Speaker 1: Where you've been sitting around for thirty five minutes waiting
- 46:56Speaker 1: for bad Bunny to finish up his set list. I
- 46:58Speaker 1: think those two scenario they're playable. There are playable angles there.
- 47:04Speaker 1: Outside of that, it's a football games.
- 47:08Speaker 4: I'm going to be shaking as on hooters.
- 47:10Speaker 2: That's my stance on.
- 47:12Speaker 5: I think it's a very different game, and for you know, obviously,
- 47:15Speaker 5: the pressure the you have everything else. By the way,
- 47:18Speaker 5: I haven't heard a lot of people about Brable after
- 47:20Speaker 5: a bye ye. I mean he's been very been very
- 47:22Speaker 5: good after buy historically. I I think it's very different
- 47:28Speaker 5: in that. In addition to like the pressure and the
- 47:33Speaker 5: crowd and all the hoopla and all the stuff you
- 47:35Speaker 5: have to deal with around it, it's the the what
- 47:39Speaker 5: you do to change, as you know, going into the
- 47:43Speaker 5: highest leverage game possible, right, So you could like the
- 47:45Speaker 5: curve balls that you come up with, the game plans have,
- 47:48Speaker 5: you know, two weeks to prepare for the highest leverage game.
- 47:51Speaker 5: You that that is what makes it so different to me,
- 47:54Speaker 5: Like you could see some teams completely change up things,
- 47:56Speaker 5: come in with a curve about the other team isn't expecting.
- 47:59Speaker 5: That completely changes the game. And from a handicapping perspective,
- 48:02Speaker 5: that's what makes this game, you know, a little bit
- 48:05Speaker 5: more difficult than you know. Not only is it the
- 48:07Speaker 5: last game and we have data for all the teams
- 48:09Speaker 5: in a very efficient market already, but you know, in
- 48:13Speaker 5: a week thirteen game, you can one of the things
- 48:17Speaker 5: I would spend a lot of my time doing, and
- 48:18Speaker 5: I spend a lot of my time doing it for
- 48:20Speaker 5: this game. But is you know, diving into the matchup
- 48:24Speaker 5: and coverages and and schematics on both ends. But both
- 48:29Speaker 5: teams know that, and that's so this is when you
- 48:32Speaker 5: would like change it up right, need to see how
- 48:34Speaker 5: maybe go more man coverage and you know things like that,
- 48:38Speaker 5: maybe blitz rates you change them and all kinds of
- 48:41Speaker 5: things that you can do. So that's what makes it
- 48:43Speaker 5: a different game to me. But I can't go understand
- 48:45Speaker 5: and asks. So I'm going to go Patriots plus four
- 48:47Speaker 5: and a half mine. I think this should be close
- 48:49Speaker 5: to for three and a half.
- 48:50Speaker 8: Then stuck, He's right about one thing the total first
- 48:55Speaker 8: quarter r one thing, one at the moment, one thing
- 49:01Speaker 8: at the moment. Listen, it's you know, not everybody's perfect,
- 49:04Speaker 8: but seven and a half is very very low. Last year,
- 49:08Speaker 8: nine and a half year before that, nine and a half,
- 49:10Speaker 8: then you got some tens. It hasn't been seven and
- 49:12Speaker 8: a half in the Super Bowl since twenty nineteen. So
- 49:16Speaker 8: I'll go at the Patriots, especially at the four and
- 49:19Speaker 8: a half them and Warry injury.
- 49:22Speaker 6: For the dog.
- 49:23Speaker 5: What about this Patriots plus four and a half Seahawks
- 49:29Speaker 5: team total under twenty five and a half Drake made
- 49:33Speaker 5: a thrown interception. Sam Donald a throw an interception eight
- 49:38Speaker 5: to one.
- 49:40Speaker 4: That's it.
- 49:44Speaker 5: Seahawks and Patriots are kind of cool.
- 49:45Speaker 1: I mean that goes counter to what has been voted
- 49:48Speaker 1: on here. This is a democracy stuck.
- 49:50Speaker 4: But that's that's what we voted on, right, No, we
- 49:53Speaker 4: voted for Hunter Henry.
- 49:56Speaker 5: Oh Henry.
- 49:56Speaker 6: Yeah.
- 49:57Speaker 5: I mean, if it's gonna be there on the I'll
- 49:59Speaker 5: change it. That is hate the one. Sorry I just
- 50:03Speaker 5: misspoke Hunter Henry four plus Patriots plus four and a
- 50:08Speaker 5: half and then.
- 50:11Speaker 2: Uh an interception from both.
- 50:13Speaker 5: Yeah, I hate the one.
- 50:15Speaker 2: That's that's.
- 50:19Speaker 1: I kind of I kind of love this guys too.
- 50:22Speaker 1: I think something all right.
- 50:27Speaker 5: I mean we want to just to choose one of
- 50:28Speaker 5: the quarterbacks and it's going to be around five to one.
- 50:30Speaker 4: Yeah, no, I hate that you got to keep the eight.
- 50:34Speaker 4: I'm hoping that this is kind of a ship show.
- 50:37Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I think production is upset with us
- 50:40Speaker 1: because I believe the graphic is built for three legs.
- 50:44Speaker 2: But you know, it's the Super Bowl.
- 50:47Speaker 5: So we'll go back to the turnovers.
- 50:50Speaker 4: Okay, so what do we wint?
- 50:52Speaker 1: Well, so the other the other option, would we rather
- 50:55Speaker 1: have each quarterback to throw at least one pick or
- 50:58Speaker 1: would we rather.
- 50:59Speaker 2: Have let's do and a half?
- 51:01Speaker 4: What does that change it?
- 51:02Speaker 2: Two?
- 51:03Speaker 1: I just xed out of this. I'm gonna sorry, don't worry.
- 51:10Speaker 1: We can find this very quickly. Here we go over
- 51:12Speaker 1: two and a half. We are going to X out
- 51:14Speaker 1: of the interceptions.
- 51:17Speaker 8: Yeah for us saying this isn't a high profile game,
- 51:22Speaker 8: we're sure treating it like it.
- 51:24Speaker 2: It is very true.
- 51:25Speaker 4: It's just like every other football game.
- 51:26Speaker 1: Evan, Ah, not sgpe able. Okay, Wow, we're all right.
- 51:34Speaker 1: We're wrapping this podcast on this. We're going to stick
- 51:37Speaker 1: to three.
- 51:37Speaker 2: Let's pick. Let's now decide.
- 51:39Speaker 1: This will be the next vote, last vote before the
- 51:42Speaker 1: end of the episode, Sam Darnald or Drake May who
- 51:45Speaker 1: is more likely back to the original question from Kendrick Middleton,
- 51:49Speaker 1: who's more likely to throw an?
- 51:51Speaker 2: I n T.
- 51:52Speaker 7: I think it's Darnald, stucky Evan, Uh, Well, let's thought
- 51:59Speaker 7: that this would.
- 52:00Speaker 4: Be the one that put people in a blender.
- 52:04Speaker 6: It's for our for our bet, you want Donald do
- 52:06Speaker 6: do it right?
- 52:07Speaker 5: Yeah? For our bet, we want Donald. Well, that's but
- 52:09Speaker 5: that's gonna that's only gonna be like three to one
- 52:11Speaker 5: now because it's correlated. I assume.
- 52:16Speaker 1: Yeah, plus that one is plus three forty five. If
- 52:19Speaker 1: you go Drake May, it's plus five twenty five, So
- 52:23Speaker 1: Drake May, all right, there we go. Our two Kings
- 52:26Speaker 1: and a Queen parlay in a roundabout way has been
- 52:30Speaker 1: nominated four plus receptions for Hunter Henry Patriots plus four
- 52:34Speaker 1: and a half. Drake May throws at least one I
- 52:38Speaker 1: n T plus five twenty five over on Draft Kings
- 52:42Speaker 1: where the crown is yours. That'll do it for our
- 52:46Speaker 1: episodes plural over the course of the last couple of weeks.
- 52:50Speaker 1: Special thanks to everybody involved, our producers as well, Gifford Gould,
- 52:54Speaker 1: David Payne, our statsound, Evan Abrams. Thank you all for
- 52:58Speaker 1: listening all season long. Doing the show has been an
- 53:01Speaker 1: absolute joy. But we're not going anywhere. The Favorites will
- 53:05Speaker 1: return next Tuesday as we get you prepped for the
- 53:08Speaker 1: off season, and as always, you can catch it right
- 53:11Speaker 1: here on the Action Network YouTube page and wherever you
- 53:14Speaker 1: download your favorite podcast. Thanks for hanging out, enjoy the
- 53:17Speaker 1: Super Bowl, and we'll see you next time here on
- 53:18Speaker 1: the Favorites presented by Drafting.
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