Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 2

Transcript

The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 2 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's the Favorites Podcast presented by FanDuel. Football season is here,
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: and there's no better place to get in on the
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: action than FanDuel. I love betting at FanDuel because they've
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: got an app that's safe and easy to use. Plus
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: they have all the markets I'm looking to bet, like spreads,
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: life betting, player props, same game parlays and more. So.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Use promo code Favorites and download the FanDuel app today
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: to make every moment more this football season. You must
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: be one and over in select states. Call one eight
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash rg in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan,
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Virginia one eight hundred, next step
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: or text next step to five three three four two
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: in Arizona one eight eight eight seven eight nine seven
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: seven seven seven or visit c CpG dot org slash
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: chat in Connecticut. One eight hundred nine with it in Indiana,
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: k S Gambling help dot com in Kansas one eight
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: seven seven seven seven zero stop in Louise, Sianna one
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: eight seven seven eight Hope n y or text Hope
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: and Why in New York Tennessee. Redline is one eight
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: hundred eight eight nine nine hundred five hundred in Wyoming,
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: or visit www. One eight hundred gambler dot net in
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Mellman, Chief Content Officer
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: of the Action Network, and I am joined as I
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: am every single episode by my co host, my bff,
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: my companion, Michael Padre professional better Simon Hunter, my brother
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Chad's buddy. We got a lot to discuss um on
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: this episode, we will narrow down our sort of leans
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: for Tuesday get down to a final five. Reminder, we
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: don't have to put our picks in for our contest
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: until Sunday, so this five is what we believe right now.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: For full transparency, we have likely bet or will bet
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: all of these games, regardless whether or not they are
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: final five depends on a lot of factors that happened
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: over the next forty hours. We will put our final
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: five in the Action Network app. Follow the phaves five
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: in the Action Network app. For these final five, our
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: other picks and I have very specific one I want
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: to discuss with you Foxhole from Tuesday. It was the
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Saints plus three. I loved it. That line has moved.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: We got ahead of the number. Exact decision from me.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Jags plus four and a half. We got ahead of
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: the number. It's now four. Uh, big balls we're gonna
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: do today. Simon said, this is what I want to
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: talk to you about. Simon says the Simon says bet
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: was forty nine Ers minus nine and a half. That
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: numbers moved. I betted at nine and a half immediately
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: on the podcast, used fan to a quick slip through
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: the Action Network at it's now eight and a half.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: I don't know why. Injuries. I mean, Kiddle might be out,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: they might, they're they're they're likely to are down their
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: number one. I saw that Jeff Wilson, I believe now
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: was through number one, and so he was the hottest
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: pickup right in fantasy football this past weekend. So I
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: get it. That's why I'm not the biggest fan of
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: people betting early, especially if you're only betting one unit
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: per bet. We did I don't know how many games
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: last week. I don't know a single game that actually
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: came down to the spread. Well, I guess Cleveland, Cleveland
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: and Carolina, right because Carolina opened it four and a half,
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: then they closed at whatever that was minus one and
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: a half, So yeah, that mattered. But yeah, I'm all
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: about the best of the number. You know, I lived
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: for talking about half a point um, but yeah, that happens.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: So yeah, it's definitely good on some numbers we got.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: And then again we'll talk about these other games coming up.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: A lot of movement, right, A lot of information coming out,
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: So there are been lines shifting by half a point
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: or a point since just whatever the thirty six hours ago. Yeah, yeah, no,
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: it's great. Why we do the podcast twice a week,
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: it's why we narrow it down, it's why we talk
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: about these things. It all matters. Every single nickel and
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: dime adds up over the course of the season. We're
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: about long term r o I. It's not a boomer
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: plus cycle, right, Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. In
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: the long haul, you make right decisions, often enough on
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: the right sides, with the right numbers, squeeze out a
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: little bit of profit. Again. I try to stay off
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: social media because I already have so much noise in
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: my life of other pros reached out to me. I
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: got Chad, I got other people the Action Network. That's enough.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: I don't need to hear like everyone else's opinions on
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: games because it does screw with my head. Um, it
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: makes you question your own picks. The amount of parlays
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: I saw sent to me from our picks of last
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: week terrifying, truly horrifying. I feel like these people listen
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: to us for our picks, but not our actual advice.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: Please guys, bet straight, just bet individually. Three and two
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: is the goal every week, is always the goal. That's
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: always what we're shooting for. I love it that you
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: guys all hit big. Seriously, it was madness how many
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: parlays were sent to me. So if you're betting a
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: hundred bucks on parlays, that means you should be betting
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: over a thousand dollars even more on your straight bets.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: So if that's if you're doing the same one on parlays,
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: you are in your straight bets. No bo, you're messing up.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: You gotta switch it up. Do a hundred on your
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: straight bets, tem dollars on your parlays, just please, and again,
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: I only recommend going to three, like two to three
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: times parlays. I don't ever go up to five, six, seven,
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: unless you're going with like five bucks, like really small'st amounts.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: So love love seeing everyone hit big, but like that
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: was crazy. I could not believe how many people parley
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: at our picks together and actually worked out for him.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: So awesome to see, but definitely little nerve wracking. Guy,
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: I am fucking begging you. Don't engage. Don't take two seriously.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: Social media it is a wormhole of hate and dysfunction.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: In the broadest sense. There's a lot of right Backgroyd
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: block though. I mean, I'm I'm pretty good at right
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: just give it right backrd block and if they give
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: it back to me, they and they just are just
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: straight losers. I just blocked. But I'm with you, Chai.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: I try not to. But it's our job. Like you
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: want me to go in there and post stuff. I
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: gotta support their action employees. I gotta repost their stuff,
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: so stuff is gonna slip through. That's true. No, that
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: that's a fair point. But remember last year we said
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: to ourselves we were getting we were too in our heads,
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: we were reacting too much to what was happening in
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: the outside world. I have been watching these lines a
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: week I feel great about what I'm seeing. I feel
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: great about the bets were making. Before we get to
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: all that, let's get to it. Shark calls hello, who's there,
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: I'm talking who's calling you this week? And who? What
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: are they saying? Are they ripping? Are they supporting? The
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: biggest talk with futures. And it's hilarious because we always
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: talked about out of reacting. The amount of pros I
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: talked to that, I think people should be putting money
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: on the Vikings, the Eagles or the Saints to when
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: the NFC is is crazy to me. They all think
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: the Bucks are done. They think Green Bay has too
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: many issues that's gonna come up later in the season.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: They don't trust the Rams, and they don't trust the
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: four Niners, which we're gonna get to coming up. I
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: just thought that was interesting. That's a lot to over
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: react to just one week. I can't do it. I mean,
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: the one that Dus standouts maybe the Buccaneers I've seen
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: now that God wins out, Mike Evans have popped up
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: injury reporting sort of Leonard four Nett, which is great
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: for our Saints. Bet Um. That was more interesting just
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: how much wide open the NFC is It wasn't even
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: just my friends too that I talked to. It was
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: like actual pros are like, no, it isn't like there's
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: huge market efficiency here that we should be investing in.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Like the NFC is wide open, which we knew coming
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: in right Me and you talked about that. You went
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: with a little bit of a wild card and your
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: championship pick. I kind of went with the boy pick.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: I just wanted the Bucks win in the NFC. But
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: it is wide open. The first game gotta call it
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: on was definitely that Simon says. Pick had a couple
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: of pros reach out to me. They think I'm overrating
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: Trey Lance and this four Niners team, and I'm underrating
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks team. And I said, based on what Geno
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Smith had literally one good half, did you guys did
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: not see him in the second half? And did you
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: not see that defense and saw teaming up all those yards?
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: I get it. I would love to be down on
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: the forty Niners and they're kind of been a a team,
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: a team everyone picked coming into the euar of being
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: a sleeper team, and that's always a little worrisome. But
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: I don't know that was a tsunami like justin Fields
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: to me, just made the plays to win that game.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Trey Lance, you can hit on him for that, right,
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: he did not make the plays to put his team
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: in a position to win. But how do I know
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: how good their run scheme is? How do I know
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: this offense is gonna function even defensively? What do what? What
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: What I really learn about the four Niners team? So
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: to me, nothing's changed. I still had higher the high rating,
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: So I think I came on here and said I
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: would have taken this up to would ever was something
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: crazy like thirteen. I justin right because people really wearing
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: my ear and I was like, okay, I am overvaluing
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: clearly as fort Niners team. But they all had this
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: game at seven and a half eight, which is crazy
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: to me, and like that's why they've come in with
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: the public on the Seahawks team. But I'm just not
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: drinking a coold So now I'm getting a little worried chat.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: It's feeling like a Giants Tennessee game all over again.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: But luckily there are actual pros on my side of this.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: But they're still they still didn't just anything. They're like
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: this four Nitis team this is what I felt they're
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: gonna be coming to the year. Taken nothing away from
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: that Bears again, that was just a literal one off
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: tsunami freak game. Now we have trail Ants at home
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: playing a Seahawks team coming off a huge win. Um.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: I think I saw some crazy stat that the Four
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: Nights just haven't played well against the Seahawks team. Since
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: I believe it's well, I guess who came to the Seahawks,
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Russell Wilson, So maybe that was the reason why that's
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: the team was so good against them. I just maybe
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: this won't be me and Chad's five because we have
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: other favorites fe like more. But I'm invested. I betted
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: down the eight and a half hit eight. I bet
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: it again. So it's like, what can I do? I
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: clearly have taken a standard on this Four Nners team.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: But that was the first, definitely glaring call. The next
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: one with Carolina Pros aligned with us on Carolina. They
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: loved that pick against the Giants. Just what we talked about,
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: the seesawness of the Giants, and we can talk about
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: that coming up. Next one was New England, which I
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: am so skeptical of I don't really understand this, but
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: two really really smart groups hit this number, and they
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: hit it again, so they went up to two and
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: a half. And then another group I really respect came
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: in a hit actually Pittsburgh because again it's Tomlin at
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: home as a dog. I get what they're doing. Now.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: It's like ping pong and we're going into I kind
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: of wanted to take New England regardless. Right, We've seen
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: the trend of these road teams back to back road starts.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: I think was the action that we did it out chat.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: It was a bed labs. But since and week two,
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: teams that start the season on the road week one
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: and then they're on the on the road again for
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: week two, they're eight and oh a t s since
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: two thousand nineteen. My only issue with that stat is
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: COVID hap in the middle of that, and then the
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: following year was like half stadiums, right, people wearing masks still,
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: so there really has not been a home build advantage
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: from two thousand one. So it's a little bit of
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: a skewed stat. But I can see why people were
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: kind of feeling New England in this position. Again, Pittsburgh
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: huge division will win five turnovers and they won by
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: three in overtime. It's just like not a lot to
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: love either on this Pittsburgh side. So I am interesting
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: how you feel about this game. Chat we'll talk about
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: coming up, but I can tell you the pros love it.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: They've taken a stand. They love that one and the
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: other one for us is gonna be the Saints every pro.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, we already made a foxhold. Bet I probably
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: would have made our big balls. Bet. Um, they love it.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: They they're all there with us. They're just like the
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: Saints team will just be undervalued again, is it? Dennis
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: Allen the head coach. Ye look at his record. If
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: you're under the age of twenty five and you don't
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: remember this guy, go look up his head coaching record.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: I think it was literally eight and twenty seven or
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: something like that career. Okay, he was bad, but I'm
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: kind of thinking like the view of he clearly learned
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: from it. They came back. Wasn't just Jameis Winson. That's
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: a whole mentality of a team there that came back
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: against the Atlanta team. So yeah, I love love knowing
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: that I'm back on two big bets have already made
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: because I was not gonna lie to you. I was
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: scared about that Carolina bet, just as Baker. But the
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: fact that so many professionals are back on that one,
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: it feels it's gonna be confident. And we've seen the
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: number drop right, it's at two a lot of books. Now, Yeah,
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: you know who doesn't get scared me? I was never
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: scared about that that Panthers bet, I fully believe, never
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: nervous about the Saints. Bet. We're gonna talk about the
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Paths because they were on our list of teams that
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: we're going to think about moving in. You know, we
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: all know you're not scared of taking the Panthers, right.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: We we heard your whole skill during the preseason. I'm
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: not scared of that. I'm not scary the Panthers. We know.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna be invalued all year. Pat, we're
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: gonna talk about I'm with you on the Niners. It's
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: interesting to me Niner, Seahawks Bears, Packers exact same situations.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: You've got two teams that are heavily favored in Week
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: two that lost in Week one. That a lot of
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: that are public teams playing against teams that upset in
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: week one, and those were wildly extenuating circumstances in which
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: both teams one. The Bears and the Seahawks in Week one,
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: we're both have heavy underdogs. Touchdown for the Bears, nearly
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: a touchdown for the Seahawks. Flukish things happen in the game,
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: a monsoon, multiple fumbles at the goal line. There is
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: a massive overreaction to what the Bears and the Seahawks are,
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: and a massive overreaction to what people think the forty
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Niners and Packers no longer are. There's value in both.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: I'm happy with the nine and a half. I will
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: hit the eight eight and a half on the Niners.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: I I might take a little taste on the Packers.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: I'm a little more skeptical, like I think the Niners
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: can be more of who they are this week because
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: last week was so strange with the rain. I'm a
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: little worried about the Packers just with their weapons. So
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: but I still love the Niners and nine and a half.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: I think we're exactly on the right side and people
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: will be coming back and seeing how right we are.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: Monday morning, we definitely we talked about that with the Bears,
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: right we said the value is definitely gonna be Green Bay.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: The problem is we're all based on this self models.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: No model can project drops, Like if Aaron's guys are
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: dropping those balls, what are we gonna do? So yeah,
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: definitely scary, but I think Chad's kind of realizing the
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: trends and every little thing points to in this position.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: Aaron's done well every time he's been doubted anything has happened,
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: especially with the Bears. Like especially with the Bears for
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: some reason, he just performs well against him. Like I
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: can't tell you how much money I've lost taking Bears
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: in this exact spot. So I would say probably about
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: three or four years ago, I just flipped and it
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: was just like I rarely would take the Bears. That
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: have to be it really would have to be. Every
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: one in the world was on Green Bay, right. That
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: was one of those where it's like the three or
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: four points are free points to the Bears team you
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: are not getting this year, this is this is peak Valley.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: You're gonna get on the Bears. Bears coming off what
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: was that a nine point win against a team that
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: got blown out in Green Bay. So I'm aligned with Chat.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: It's like not gonna be one of our fives. But
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: it's again I hate taking these big favorites, but I
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: will be on Green Bay is a favorite. All right. Look,
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: we talked a little bit about the Saints. We talked
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: about the Panthers. We love them when we recorded on Tuesday.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: We still love them recording today. So right now I
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: am saying Saints Panthers in our final five as of
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: right now? Well, what do you think we should we make?
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: Do you think that Carolina takes big balls? We're taking
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: Baker on the road the game? You're eyeing up because
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to think it, like I'm looking at my
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: seat right here. It's I mean, New England might make
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: me feel the grossest, but like this, this Carolina one,
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: it's gross. You're you're literally gotta hold your nose and
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: you take this pick because it's like, well, the only
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: other one I would say, and we don't have to
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: put it in the final five if we want to
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: get too big balls. Jets j E t s Man
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: because I've I bet the Jets and that never moved
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: against me, Like I bet it. It's sick and it's
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: at six and a half. I love the Jets in
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: this spot. I stole the stat from Chris Raban and
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: Stucky on the Action Network podcast because they had some
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: great stats about week two. Because week two is all
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: about overreaction, right, there's no data yet to make decisions.
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: So Week two dogs that didn't cover a week one
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: by seven or more the past twenty years against the
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: spread the next week this week, that applies to the Jets, Cardinals,
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: and Cowboys. By the way, we also talked about the
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: Cowboys is a big balls I'm probably gonna play the Cowboys.
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: Um that numbers come down as well as eight and
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: a half down to seven and a half. So there
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: you go, uh, double digit loss in week one, six
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: against the spread in Week two. The past twenty years,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: every trend week two dogs of six or less off
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: of a straight up loss against the spread. That fits
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: the Panthers, Jacks, Jets, and Cardinals. So like in every scenario,
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: the Jets are coming up as a bet. I think
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: the Jets would be a big boss who wants to bet?
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: Now you're you're hunch fed on and again, this is
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: again a point I want to make the people about
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: this show. Is our whole goal here is that six percent.
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: More so, this is a long term bet you just
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: make blindly for the rest of your life every time
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: and you will turn their profit. Contest Wise, we don't
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: do that, right. We can't just throw it in because
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: it's a six percent clip. We need to hit above
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: six percent to win our contest. So like that little
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: edge there. I love it for long term betting. For us,
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: it doesn't apply like are it's different rules and contests
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: Again later in the season, people are here, how crazy
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: we get with strategy. We'll literally pick games because we're
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: trying to catch games on people. So we're trying to
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: double up. We know a public's all over this in
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: the contest, we'll go to the other side, just try
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: to catch up. Even if we hate it, we gotta
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: do it. We'll never do that with our bets on
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: the show. We'll always tell you how what exactly what
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: I were betting where on when he's going and people
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: know we're on the jets. So I had the Jets
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: at six. Unfortunately, I didn't think it was gonna drop.
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: It did drop five and a half. A pro group
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: came in, took a position, or it could just be teasers, right.
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: The public came in so heavy and they teased it down.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: The books are just like, all right, forget, we'll go
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: up to six and a half. But it's up to
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: six and a half, So to me, I'll take that
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: value again. If you've just been waiting, you might as
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: well wait a little longer, Like I could see this
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: getting seven. Especially when the injuries come out for this
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: Jets team, they might be down another guy in their
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: offensive line. You might ably get that seven. So to
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: me that you could wait, but I'll grab a six
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: and a half just in case. Jets plus six and
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: a half, big bald better the week. There. Here's another
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: thing to think about with the Jets. The total on
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: this game is crazy, crazy low. All right, it's at forty.
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: So the bookmakers are basically saying to you when they're
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: setting a spread that low, but said, I'm setting a
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: total that low, but setting a spread as high as
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: it is, they're kind of begging you to take the
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: underdog in this spot because they expect it to be
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: a really low scoring game and it's hard to cover
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: a big spread in a low scoring game, right, and
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: as circular, that's always favorites. I believe any any dog
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: over three points with a spread lower than forty it's
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: a crazy high cover rate, so one of those again
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: you know blindly play these things. But this is why
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: you're always looking for trends. It's an edge over the book, right,
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: the books they know that people have these trends. The
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: general republic do not know these trends. So that's again
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: a boring trend play. You don't need to build some
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: crazy math system like I built. You can just play
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: that trend and you will be profitable. It's there's a
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: reason these guys play these numbers. Oh, I love that idea.
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: It's like you see a total under forty, you're catching
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: over six points. You can do the math like you're
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: you're getting a lot of value in that position. So
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: I like that stat chet. Football season is underway, so
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: now is the perfect time to download fan Duel, America's
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: number one sports book because right now new customers getting
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: no sweat first bet up to one thousand dollars. That's
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: free bets back. If your first bet doesn't win, just
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: sign up with promo code Favorites. This week, my favorite
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: bet is Atlanta catching ten and a half against the Rams.
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: I love betting with FANDUL because they have all my
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: favorite betting markets plus live betting options for when I
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: want to jump in and bet all gamed long Plus.
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: They have an app. It's safe, secure and easy to use,
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: so sign up with promo code Favorites for your no
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: sweat first bet Make every Moment more this season with
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: FanDuel Official Sports but partner of the NFL must be
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: twenty one or older and in select states first online
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: real money wager only refund issued is now withdrawable free
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: bets that expires in fourteen days. Restrictions apply see terms
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: at sports book dot vanduel dot com. Gambling problem Call
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: one eight gambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash r
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: G in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Virginia
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: one eight hundred next step or text next step to
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: five three three four two in Arizona one eight eight
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: c CpG dot org slash chat in Connecticut one eight
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: hundred nine with it in Indiana, KS Gambling Help dot
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: com in Kansas one eight seven seven seven seven zero
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: stop in Louisiana one eight seven seven eight Hope NY
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: or text hope n Y. In New York, Tennessee redline
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: is one eight hundred eight eight nine one eight hundred
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: five hundred in Wyoming, or visit www. One eight hundred
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: gambler dot net in West Virginia. All Right, I want
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: to go back to you our final five. Get us
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: focused here for a second. We're putting right now, Panthers
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: and Saints in there. I think we both feel good
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: about that. But we got some other teams, right, So,
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: Jags plus four and a half. We talked a lot
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: about the Jags. They're at home, divisional home dog against
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: a cult team that the past six seven years I
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: forgot they haven't won in Jacksonville. We both believe the
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: Jags are better than what they showed on Sunday in
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: that they just missed some place. They were a young
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: team missing plays and we're probably amped. I don't think
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: that happens again. I just don't think the Cults are
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: good enough to be more than a few ago favorite
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: on the road. Bang it. Jack's plus four and a
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: half boom and I hate it. This is probably definitely
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: been our contest. We just have to play. And I
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: can back up everything Chad just said, but it's a
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: simple fact of home divisional dog in week two. Not
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: that I want to put down the Courts and what
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: they've looked like, but they're just not a team that
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: deserves to be four points or four and a half
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: points favorite in this position. Like the Jaguars, like Chad
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: just talked about, there were really a player to a
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: drop or two away from stealing that game from Washington.
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I love love to play. It's like there's again,
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: there's a couple of places this week where it's like again,
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: I do all the work, and like then I talked
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: to guys, I just knew right away this is one
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: of those I just knew as soon as the number
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: was gonna come out, we're gonna be on the side
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: unless the Jaguars were gonna win, because I kind of
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: if the Jaguars are one Houston one, what's this spread, right,
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: maybe two one and a half to the Colts. I
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: still think they would be a favorite in this position,
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: just because they're wind total though, like the book still
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: based a lot of these early lines off wind totals,
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: Like the fact that New England like moved up to
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: whatever it was minus one against Pittsburgh. I think that
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: was like a wind toll thing where it's like, you know,
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: the the Pittsburgh was seven and a half, they were
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: eight eight and a half, so they gave them the
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: edge there. It's same in this kind of position where
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: it's like Colts were what nine and a half, we
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: were taking Jacks at six six and a half, So
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: I get the respect coming in on the Colts. But um,
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: again I like the Colts. Later in the year, Matt
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: Ryan gets comfortable being in a new offense on a
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: new team, still in a great position to fade him,
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: and I like what I saw for Trevor Lawrence. I've
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: watched that game three times now. Um, I'm just obsessed
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: with the Jags team. Little worrisome some of Doug Peterson's
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: calls on offense. Um, it's kind of feels like there's
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: a little bit of training wheels on there with Trevor Lawrence.
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: But this week went in a new scheme. I'm not
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: trying to have to hold too much to it, but
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: definitely something keeping on my eye on. It's a very
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: basic he's running very basic offense and a little worrisome
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: as something that's having the invested the Jaguars were invested
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: in the Jaguars this week. Right now, we are invested in, uh,
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: the teams from my favorite divisions in football, the a
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: f C South and the NFC South Jack's plus four
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: and a half, Saints plus three, Panthers plus two and
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: a half. Uh. The other team on our list that
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: we loved forty Niners minus nine and a half. We've
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: talked about the Pats. I love the Niners. In this spot,
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: I'm starting to feel like I like the Pats a
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: little bit more. Yeah, I just I don't know what
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: the hell to do with it. Like all these other
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: pros love you too, and like I get their position
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: they're coming from. There's a lot of trends that favorite
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: what they're saying too. But I just feel like the
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: Patriots might be broken. Like that was is horrible. That
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: Miami game was truly horrible. Miami even played that well
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: and they kind of dominated him, Like Miami could have
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: easily beat them by thirty points. I mean, Mac had
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: no time, His receivers were not getting open. Their scheme
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: was just very very born. And we already talked about
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: this as Patricia and Judge, two guys we do not
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: respect or hold at any high level of like, yeah,
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: these guys know what they're doing coaching an offense. We
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: know they've never coached offense before, so I'm scared where
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: It's like a year ago, even I would have been
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: all in on this position, like this is exactly where
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: you take the Patriots. I don't really know what to
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: do with it. Like I feel like it's gonna eventually
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: find our way in just because guys I highly respect
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: are telling me to take the Patriots. Um, but I'll
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: tell you the favorite. I love chat like my number
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: one favorite favorite this week, it's gotta be the Ravens.
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: Like I just I keep looking at this number, and
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: I just keep thinking about all the everything I'm hearing
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: about this Miami team. Man, I love the Ravens in
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: this spot. I mean, a rookie head coach on the
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: road and first first game after a win. It's just
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: lining up really nice and a bunch of different little factors.
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: The biggest one is watching too. He's not comfortable on
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: that new offense. They left a lot of places in
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: the field of Patriots. I do not see the Ravens
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: making the same mistakes. Ravens offense look awful last week
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: in the first half. They really figured out the second
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: half like Lamar look comfortable, kind of had this thing
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: going to me. This is a perfect spot to take
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: this Ravens team. The fact that it's still under four.
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: I know we talked about hoping we'll get the three.
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: I don't think the Pros will let this number get
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: the three like they there's kind of a stance here.
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: We've seen the money, the tickets kind of come in
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: on Miami a little bit. It just just feels a
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: great time to take a Ravens team that they are
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: established or not, this up and coming team that we
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: think Miami is. Look, I love the Ravens here. I
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: only haven't bet then because I've been waiting for them
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: to get to the three, which is fair, you know,
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: But if you don't think it's going to get there,
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: I don't then you know what I'm gonna do? You
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: know what, you don't have to though you can wait.
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: I just the only reason I'm taking the three is
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: because I just don't want to get it. I don't
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: want it to go back to four, Like I just
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: want to be safe. Yeah, that's kind of how I feel.
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: But like again, I do still love the four nine ers.
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: It's just do I feel in my in my core
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: what exactly I know I'm getting from the Ravens. I
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: really do like the Ravens. Just feel like I know
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: who they are. Um Lamar, I know exactly he is.
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: He's one of the best players in the regular season.
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: The guy kind of lets it, lets it, let's choke
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: a little bit in the playoffs. But in Week two,
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: in this position with this team healthy, Um, I think
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: Stanley is supposed to be back for their offensive line.
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: It's just it's a nice position to take a Baltimore
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: Ravens team that I don't know. They're just not really
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: being talked about as much. I think they should be,
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: just because they beat the Jets team where the Miami
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: team was just getting so much hype, just because they
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: look so good against what could be a bad Patriots scene.
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: I think you're right. Uh, let's put let's put the
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: Ravens in. Do we take the forty Niners out? Yeah?
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: I switched them out, all right, Ravens are in, uh too.
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: Other games that we've talked right now, we have Jags,
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: Saints Panthers, Ravens minus three and a half, so we
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: have four Uh, Niners are out. I got like three
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: games too that I'm like fighting not put in the
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: last spot. All right, Well, we have listed on Tuesday
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: Titans plus ten, Eagles minus one and a half them,
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: but it's it's tough. Well before we do that anything else,
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: because we had one other game that we kind of targeted,
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: which was the Raiders and the Cardinals. No, I mean,
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: I still I like the Raiders play, but there's just
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: other other games I like more like Again, it's that's
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: the hardest thing. It's like, I love a lot of games,
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: but as a pro, I try to get it down
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: at two sides and one total or two totals on
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: one side. Honestly, when I'm making like substantial bets in
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: these early weeks here, how about everything. But I'm saying,
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: like I'm putting a lot on certain things. Um to me,
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: the Raiders, I like that number, but I don't know
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: if it's gonna make my top ten of my biggest bets.
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: So it's just it's just not what I'm heavy on.
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: Just because I think you lost the best number. It
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: was two and a half, three and a half all
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: up to five and a half. It's kind of a
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: weird dead number. So you said you had three. I
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: just mentioned two of them. I mentioned Titans plus ten,
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: Eagles minus one and a half? Who am I missing
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: for games? We didn't talk about that. I like, yeah,
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: Hotlanta starting to really drink the kool aid here. I
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: just watching their scheme. I love the run scheme they
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: have and it's just a fun, fun team. Where the Rams,
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: I just don't think they're they should be catching ten
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: and a half against many teams, especially at Atlanta, which
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: I just don't see Atlanta being in many games year.
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: They're just gonna be one of these teams, kind of
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: like the Lions last year. I can just see them
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: always being in these close games. Um, it's all about
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: what number we get in the contest. Again, if it's
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: nine and a half, I would not do it. But
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: if it was ten and a half, still like close
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: to eleven. I like that number a lot for this
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: Atlanta team. UM. I guess the only pauses the trends
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: of McVeigh extended rest after a loss. It's been good
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: to him. But I just love this Atlanta run team.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: Like everything about the style of offense they play. They slow.
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: They're gonna slow games down against the team like Stafford
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: and an offensive like to pass it, it's gonna be
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: hard to get in a rhythm against that kind of style.
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: So we saw that with New Orleans, right, Atlanta controlled
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: that whole game and also in the fourth quarter once
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: Winston got into a little bit of rhythm, he put
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: up sixteen straight points. So to me, like, that's that's
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: the negative of it, where it's like if they go
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: three and out, their their defense could be in trouble.
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: But uh, because again Atlanta's defense is definitely a weakness.
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: But to me, it's a lot of points to be
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: give into a RAMS team that they just don't look right.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: And again I don't take too much of just one game,
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: but it wasn't just like one two or little a
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: couple of mistakes, like a lot of issues on their
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: offensive line, got issues a Stafford and what he was doing,
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: and their defensive side of the ball, they just they're there.
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: They did not look prepared like on the defensive side,
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: which is a worry for me. So, yeah, that's too
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: many points to be getting a given this Rams team.
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: By the way, Uh of the money coming in on
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: the Falcons right now, jeez, hopefully that's prone one because
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: that's scary. I guess they are a little bit of
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: a public dog, but all these all these big dogs
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: are public dogs because Atlantic covered, Houston covered, Seahawks covered,
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: and who am I fregatting Houston covered. So it's like
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: all four of these big underdogs they burned people last week.
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: There were Joe public and been on all these favorites.
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: So now they're thinking, Okay, these dogs I lost were
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: now all getting ten or more points, nine or more points.
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: I might as well just take them. So again it's
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: a big overreaction week. I'm not normally on a bunch
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: of double digit favorites, but like I like Green Bay,
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: I like San France, and I kind of like Broncos.
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: So it's it's a rare, rare from merom on the
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: big favorites. What do we think of? All right, So
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: let's put a pin in the Falcons right now, because
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: we also had the Titans plus ten against Buffalo and
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: we had the Eagles minus one and a half. I
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: kind of love the Eagles right now. Yeah, And I
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: think someone said it to me. I don't know if
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: how accurate is. I probably should have reached out to Evan,
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: but Kirk Cousins and Monday Night Games is three and
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: nine at s, which sounds about right right if you
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: think about his career and all the jokes we make
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: at his expense. Um. Another big thing for me was
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: Green Bay had their left tackle on right tickle out
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: of that game and they had no good receivers. Now
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: the Vikings defense is going against arguably the best offensive
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: line of football A J. Brown and Davante Smith. Jalen
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: Hurts has been great out was on the top quarterbacks
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: in football since he's become a starter. Like again, I
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: don't trust him sometimes, like his reads are terrible. His legs, though,
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: are such a weapon. Only only quarterback to run for
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: more first downs last year or year last year and
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: a half is Lamar Jackson. We know how good Lamar.
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: So I love the upside of this Egos team. I
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: think the public is kind of figuring out where. Again,
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: it's interesting hearing from pros that they just we talked
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: about before the season. They were down this Egos team.
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: They bet they're underwin total, which I didn't really get.
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: They just didn't believe in Hurts. They didn't believe this defense.
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: So the Eagles defense got great. Was the worst tackling
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: team in Week one thirties they're the thirty second team.
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: They literally had the most mis tackles, the most broken
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: tackles on again on their defense. That's huge. They addressed
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: it this week. They've been talking about all a week.
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: I know that's something you can't just change in a week,
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: but that's great. They won a game with a glaring
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: weakness and how they can improve on it this week
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: leading up to a Vikings game in prime time. So
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: I get why these pros I've talked to they don't
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: like the Egos defense and they think this is gonna
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: be a shootout, and then the shootout they favored this
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: Vikings team. But I just again, I just think this
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: Eagos team is just being overlooked in a bunch of
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: different aspects. So I still love it. That's the hardest point.
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: It's like, I love Tennessee too. If we're gonna do
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: on Monday night game, we can't do too. We have
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: to pick one and kind of like the bullet Well, look,
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: I think it's to me. I get what you're saying
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: about the Falcons. Yeah, I like these two more than Falcons. Honestly,
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: I like these two more than the Falcons, and I
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: think I lean Eagles I'm getting a very short home
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: favorite on a Monday night game, their opening game at home,
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: and it to me, I love this team. I think
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: they have such a higher ceiling than what they're even
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: being given credit for right now. And I'm not a
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: believer in Kirk Cousins and the Vikings, yet I think
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: they did it against a green Bay team that is
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: severely deficient. They're just getting too much credit for it.
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: And they left. We talked about lean plays in the field.
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: Green Bay left a lot of plays in the field.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: That's a lot of plays in the field. And and
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: I think that some people will just look at the
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: final score of the Eagles game and see that it
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: was thirty five and not realize how thoroughly they beat
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: the lines. And so I don't know that they're getting
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: enough credit for the win. And I think the number
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: is a little depressed because of that. I think it's
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: the Eagles minus one and a half and like and again,
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: anything under three to me is a good number. The
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: fact you're getting one and a half now is even better. Um.
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: It's just I'm honestly surprised, though the love by the
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: pros and the Vikings, because this has been a notorious
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: spot for almost all pros that fade the Vikings like
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: you just this is when you kind of get off.
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: A team has a huge divisional win at home. Now
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: they're going on the road in a primetime game with
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: a rookie head coach. Just how happens it's Kirk Cousins
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: as well. I don't know, it's just interesting that pros
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: are actually buying into this Viking type where I kind
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: of am too. Like we talked about, I don't I
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: don't hate the idea of bet in their Super Bowl
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: future because the NFC is so down right now, but man,
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: that's gonna be a weird feeling come January. And it's
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: like I'm sitting on a Kirk Cousins ticket. He's playing
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: against Tom Brady and what we're old? Am I really
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: feeling confident in that game? Like that's the whole thing
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: about doing these kind of future bets. So yeah, for
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: a week two as you sit here chat, I love
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: the Eagles in this position. Um, I was hoping you're
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: gonna talk to me the Titans just because I'm such
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: a homer. But when it comes to gamlet, I'm not
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: like I'm all four fading the Eagles because I win
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: both worlds. Like last week we hit the cover on
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: Detroit and my Eagles and the Eagles one, like, yeah,
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: it sucked my money line and come through on the lines,
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: but it's the best of both worlds. So to me,
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: I'd be much more happy to take the vikings here.
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: But it's just a bad number and the public is
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: making it so they bet this down our final five
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: as of right now, Jack's plus four and a half,
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: Saints plus three, Panthers plus two and a half, two favorites,
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: Ravens minus three and a half, Eagles minus one and
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: a half, only one road team, which is a little scary,
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: but it doesn't really matter knocking on the door. We're
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: betting numbers. We're not betting. We're not trying to find balance. Okay,
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: I love balance, Yeah, but these are each these are
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: these are disconnected decisions. Each one we are believing in
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: in and of itself. We do not have to find
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: the perfect sort of formula here. We just need to
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: find the five games we feel great about, and with
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: one wins, it doesn't have an impact on the other
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: one winning or losing. These are five picks. I've just
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: laid them out to review for everybody. Simon says, for
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: the Niners minus nine and a half, we chose that
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday. Still like it, both of us like a
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: foxhol Saints plus three exact decision. I chose that on Tuesday,
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: Jack's plus four and a half survivor. For those who
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: had to choose block on Thursday, we chose the Bengals.
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: I still lean Bengals. I like the Broncos to well. Well.
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: I had a couple of people bring up to me
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: that that's probably the good choice next week Bengals there
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: at the Jets, which I said, it's fair like we're
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: doing the look ahead. Unfortunately, my guy travised and put
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: out his articles. I couldn't cheat. We do feel good
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: about green Bay or the n is one of these
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: big favorites I saw. The Bengals was nice because they
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: aren't such a tough division. But that's a good point
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: by people saying they do play the Jets next week. Again,
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: next week is tough. I like, I really picked up
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: look aheadlines while already working on one week, but that
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: is one of the ones that stand out kind of
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: the the Vikings play the lines, which is another go
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: one next week, so obviously you could do that, but
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: for this week, if you're already locked the Bengals again,
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: don't hate it, but what do you think about? Would
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: you do Green Bay or um the four Niners over
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: the Bengals and save them for next week because only
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: we only have one left. We can't do two again,
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: We're down to one contest. I might do the Broncos
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: Broncos Okay, I actually really like that. Yeah, I'll do that,
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: and I'll check your schedule and make sure there's no
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: other layups. But this this feels as good as it's
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: gonna get right in that division. Our big balls better
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: the week is the New York Jets. These are Phase
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: five Jack's plus four and a half, Saints plus three,
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: Panthers plus two and a half, Eagles one and a half,
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: Ravens minus three and a half. It's time for scooch Roulette.
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief.
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: Let's play don't roulette, Simon. We both won last week,
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: so I will defer to you. I really want to
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: go Ravens because I know it's like my favorite kind
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: of bet so far this week. But I'm feeling most
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: confident in the Saints. There's just something about the Saints
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: in this position at home. I just love the Saints
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: going against Tom. They're just it feels like the stock
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: on Tom's kind of going down here in the Saints
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: is going up, and that the Saints should be minus
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: two and a half, not plus two and a half.
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: So in fact, I'm getting what feels like a four
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: point difference is is enough for me. I can't pass on,
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: So I'll do the Saints. In my scutlet pick, you
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: will take the Saints, I'm writing that down. I will
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: take the Jacksonville Jaguars. You know what, it's the very
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: is bet that I made. I think I made it
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: on Sunday night when it was four and a half.
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: I looked at the lines while watching the Sunday night game.
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: I saw all these numbers. The two things that stood
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: out to me were the Chargers plus four and a
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: half and the Jags plus four and a half. I
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: bet the Jags right away. I'm still feeling good about it. No,
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: I agree. I mean again, that's that's such a fun
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: point about week do. It's like as soon as those
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: lines open, we kind of already knew what we were
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: gonna do. All right, I want to remind people download
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: the Action Network Gap follow the phase five to get
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: our final locked picks for our contest. Those would be
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: the five picks follow the Favorites podcast. I know it's confusing,
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: but we separated it so we could actually have fidelity
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: to the five picks that we choose every week and
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: people can see how we do at the end of
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: the year. That's why we separated the two handles the
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: Favorites podcast, you'll get Simon says, exact decision, Foxhole, Big Balls,
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: Scoot Rouette. Oh, Simon, we didn't do our money line
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: round Robin, Okay, sure this one. I honestly took a
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: long look at it, just because usually I try to
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: get a lot of home dogs. We have a lot
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: of home dogs this week, so it was a tougher,
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: tougher choices. But the first one that jumped out Carolina Saints.
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: Chad knows real love these dogs, Jaguars, no brainers, and
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: I was like, okay, who are upside dogs? You could
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: take that the outside chance of actually pulling these upsets.
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: First one that jumped out was Atlanta, the Atlanta Rams.
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: One that's gonna be such a huge number. I gotta
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: throw it in. People know I love big dogs. This
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: is my favorite big dog of the week. I had
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: to throw it in there. And who the hell is
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: Cleveland if you getting so many points? Chad knows the
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: Jets this is such a gross money line or dog,
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: but I do I do love the Jets to actually
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: have a chance of pulling it upset in this position. Okay, So,
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: like people are asking how how much you break it
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: out two times five And if you don't know what
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: that means, just go on the Action app. They'll they'll
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: give you a breakdown on what different ways you can
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: do around Robbins. It's the safest, most boring way to
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: do it. Like last week you went to two on one,
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: you don't lose all your money. You got a little
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: bit of money back. Where if you go three times
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: or four times, you need three or four these underdogs
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: to win, which is just it's really hard. So I
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: do two by five all right again? Download the Action
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: Network app you can follow everything. You guys should watch
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: green Dot Daily, which is really good. You can watch
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: it in the app. That's the best place to do
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: everything that we do. Watch green Dot Daily in the app.
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: Green Dot Daily is our daily show setting the betting
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: agenda for the day is at noon Eastern watch Convinced
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: Me with me Simon, Sean Kerner, Chris Raybond, Samantha Prividi,
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: Dann Ravel. That is our NFL pregame show. Watch that
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: at eleven am. A lot of good bets in that
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: This past week went six and three with those bets.
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: Download from Apple podcasts, from Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts,
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: Rate review, subscribe, give us five stars, say whatever you want.
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: Feedback is a gift. Until next time. I Love you,
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: M M.