Latest / Inside Politics / Palestinian statehood: The UK has moved, so has Canada. What’s Albanese waiting for?

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Palestinian statehood: The UK has moved, so has Canada. What’s Albanese waiting for? · Inside Politics

0:01
S1: Hi, it's Pulsacao here from the Canberra bureau of the
0:04
S1: Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. This is inside politics
0:07
S1: and it's Friday, August 1st. Your regular host, Jackie Maley,
0:10
S1: is away, so I'll be steering the ship today as
0:12
S1: we navigate a big week in politics. The main issue
0:16
S1: has been Israel and Gaza, nearly two years on from
0:19
S1: the start of the conflict, and whether we've finally reached
0:22
S1: a tipping point. Joining me today is national security correspondent
0:25
S1: Matthew Knott and our special guest, former political chief turned
0:28
S1: European correspondent and always friend of the pod, David Crowe. Welcome, guys.
0:36
S2: Hello. Great to be back.
0:38
S1: This has been a really big week in domestic debate
0:41
S1: on Israel. It started on Sunday when the prime Minister
0:43
S1: was on ABC's insiders program, where he pretty significantly stepped
0:47
S1: up his language on Israel after weeks of pretty shocking
0:50
S1: images that indicate starvation in the Gaza Strip. Has he
0:54
S1: been freed up a bit on this issue? Has the
0:56
S1: global debate shifted? What prompted him to take that step
1:00
S1: of calling out Israel's behavior. And what has it done
1:03
S1: to domestic debate here?
1:04
S3: Yes, I think we're seeing a growing exasperation around the world,
1:09
S3: including among Israel's closest allies, about what is happening in
1:15
S3: Gaza now.
1:17
S4: A U.N. backed monitor has in the last hour said
1:21
S4: that the worst case scenario of famine is playing out
1:24
S4: in the Gaza Strip.
1:26
S5: UN relief agency claims a fifth of children in Gaza
1:28
S5: City alone are suffering malnutrition, and more than 100 mostly
1:32
S5: young people, have died of hunger.
1:35
S6: Desperate and hungry, thousands of Palestinians scramble onto aid trucks
1:40
S6: that have just entered the Gaza Strip. They grab what
1:43
S6: they can, anything for the chance to feed themselves and
1:46
S6: their families.
1:50
S3: It's all I think, to do with the images of
1:54
S3: starvation and suffering are long, long lines for food. Reports
2:01
S3: of many people, hundreds of people being shot while trying
2:04
S3: to get food. And of course, are particularly images of
2:09
S3: emaciated children. Or we've seen throughout history that images like
2:14
S3: this can have a big impact, even in wars that
2:16
S3: are going on for a long time. You know, this
2:18
S3: war in Gaza has now gone on for over 18 months,
2:22
S3: but we are seeing an upswell around the world of
2:26
S3: leaders saying that this war needs to stop. It's gone
2:30
S3: too far, and particularly that more aid needs to get in.
2:34
S3: So Anthony Albanese has joined statements by world leaders about this,
2:38
S3: and he was asked about it on the weekend. And
2:41
S3: he did say unequivocally that he thinks Israel breached international law.
2:47
S7: Well, quite clearly, it is a breach of international law
2:50
S7: to stop food being delivered, which was the decision that
2:56
S7: Israel made in March.
3:00
S3: This was in March when Israel a completely blocked all
3:04
S3: aid going into Gaza until May. And since then we've
3:09
S3: seen that the controversial Gaza Humanitarian Foundation offering aid. But
3:14
S3: what people say on the ground is that, you know,
3:16
S3: there's a backlog or essentially what we're seeing now are
3:20
S3: the impacts of that decision taken in March. And, yeah,
3:25
S3: he's he's pretty exasperated, uh, with the Netanyahu government, we're
3:28
S3: seeing this from similar leaders, the leaders of France, Britain,
3:32
S3: also Germany, which has been extremely close, uh, with Israel.
3:36
S3: So I don't think he thinks he has anything to
3:38
S3: lose domestically by criticizing the Netanyahu government, which he also
3:44
S3: makes a point of saying is unpopular with many, if
3:47
S3: not a majority of Israelis themselves.
3:49
S1: Yeah. As you've written, I think last week, there's a
3:52
S1: hardening of opinion inside Israel, too, which often gets overlooked
3:55
S1: in Western debate. So he's speaking the prime minister, speaking
3:58
S1: in stronger terms about Israel's Behavior. We're also seeing Canada
4:03
S1: and the U.K., as you mentioned, countries with whom the
4:06
S1: Prime minister at least says in private he would like
4:08
S1: to move forward in lock step with on the issue
4:10
S1: of recognition of the Palestinian state. He's arguing for this
4:14
S1: kind of principled position where he's increasingly calling out Israel's behavior,
4:18
S1: but only contemplating recognition in a form that would not
4:22
S1: be a token gesture. He wants to get bang for
4:25
S1: his buck. He wants to do it at a time
4:27
S1: when there is actually a prospect of peace or some
4:29
S1: grand coalition with Hamas moving out of Gaza. How long
4:33
S1: can he hold that line with the rest of the
4:35
S1: Western world moving forward on the issue of recognition?
4:38
S3: Yeah, I think he's going to struggle to hold that line.
4:43
S3: It feels like events are moving very, very quickly. And
4:47
S3: from what we're seeing in recent days, France, the UK, Canada,
4:53
S3: these are countries that Australia identifies with. We talk about
4:57
S3: like minded nations. It's clear that the nations are not
5:02
S3: moving completely in lockstep. You know, we're seeing it on
5:05
S3: different days. All these leaders have their own domestic concerns
5:10
S3: that they're responding to. It's not like these joint statements
5:13
S3: that we've seen with three, four, five, even, you know,
5:16
S3: over 20 countries signing up together at the one time,
5:19
S3: we might have perhaps expected that on this, but it's
5:22
S3: clearly not happening. There's clearly not that level of coordination. Uh,
5:28
S3: and it was interesting on insiders when it did seem, uh,
5:32
S3: listening to him, that the Prime Minister was presenting all
5:35
S3: the challenges to recognition and all the obstacles to it
5:39
S3: and the preconditions that would need to be met for
5:43
S3: Australia to do it. It seemed like he was pressing
5:45
S3: the brakes on recognition.
5:48
S7: Uh, how do you exclude Hamas from any involvement there?
5:52
S7: How do you ensure that a Palestinian state operates in
5:56
S7: an appropriate way, which does not threaten the existence of Israel?
6:00
S7: And so we won't do any decision as a gesture.
6:07
S7: We will do it as a way forward. Uh, if
6:11
S7: the circumstances are met.
6:13
S8: So at the moment.
6:14
S3: But since then, we've seen the UK and Canada do it,
6:18
S3: very aware that there's overwhelming support within the Labour caucus
6:22
S3: and the Labour rank and file to recognize a Palestine,
6:27
S3: even if that's pretty muted within the caucus. Ed Husic
6:30
S3: is the leading voice there, but the UN General Assembly
6:35
S3: is not until September. It's hard to imagine the Prime
6:38
S3: Minister withstanding what's going to be growing pressure to recognise,
6:42
S3: and he wants to do so himself. He's wanted to
6:46
S3: do so throughout his whole political career. He's always said
6:50
S3: it's the question of the timing, but, you know, events
6:53
S3: are moving very quickly.
6:56
S1: David Knotty there mentioned the different domestic scenarios for the
7:00
S1: Canadian and British leaders who have made these calls for
7:03
S1: recognition this week, can you explain a bit about what
7:07
S1: Keir Starmer, the British Prime Minister, is facing in his
7:10
S1: own party and the circumstances that led to him calling
7:14
S1: for a Palestinian statehood earlier this week?
7:17
S2: He's facing a large backbench that's got a strong opinion
7:23
S2: about recognizing a Palestinian state, and that's that's clearly a
7:28
S2: factor for him domestically. The way I wrote the story
7:31
S2: and the way that I saw it at the time,
7:33
S2: was really not just an argument about the theory of
7:38
S2: Palestinian statehood. It was really to use this as a
7:42
S2: diplomatic message to Israel, to try to get something happening
7:46
S2: with the problem of the starvation and the lack of
7:49
S2: progress on getting a ceasefire. So with that changing public
7:53
S2: opinion within the UK, um, Starmer came out with the
7:57
S2: announcement about recognition of Palestinian statehood with conditions.
8:02
S9: So today, as part of this process towards peace, I
8:07
S9: can confirm the UK will recognise the State of Palestine
8:11
S9: by the United Nations General Assembly in September unless the
8:17
S9: Israeli government takes substantive steps to end the appalling situation
8:22
S9: in Gaza.
8:22
S2: With this message to Israel that he wouldn't move on
8:26
S2: statehood if Israel would actually move on ceasefire and getting
8:30
S2: aid through to Palestinian civilians, it's hard to see a
8:33
S2: situation where Israel does what Keir Starmer wants. The message
8:37
S2: back from Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, was
8:40
S2: just a very angry, total rejection. So you can't see
8:45
S2: that Starmer is having any progress there. But that's what
8:49
S2: he was seeking to do to put the onus on Israel.
8:51
S2: And I do find that there's an interesting kind of
8:54
S2: contrast with what, um, Canada has done because Prime Minister
8:58
S2: Mark Carney in Canada also says that Canada will recognize
9:04
S2: a Palestinian state in September. Same time frame at the
9:07
S2: UN General Assembly. But Carney frames this as conditional on
9:11
S2: what the Palestinian Authority would do. And he says the
9:14
S2: Palestinian Authority must hold an election in 2026 and commit
9:19
S2: to democracy. So he's trying to put the onus on
9:23
S2: the Palestinian side in terms of what he would do
9:26
S2: by the UN General Assembly in September.
9:29
S3: And just to point out some of the many complexities
9:34
S3: and difficulties here. So there's yes, there's growing demand for
9:38
S3: the Palestinian system to be democratized and for elections to
9:41
S3: be held. But there's also a demand that Hamas have
9:43
S3: absolutely no role to play when Hamas is one of
9:47
S3: the two main political parties, according to many polls. Even now.
9:51
S3: It might still perhaps be the most popular party. So
9:55
S3: the world's demanding a democratic Palestine, but with no role
9:59
S3: for one of the main parties, and you get into
10:02
S3: many practical problems when you get beyond the symbolic issue
10:07
S3: of recognition.
10:08
S1: And David Starmer hosted Donald Trump this Week in Scotland.
10:14
S1: There's been this debate about what is actually going on
10:17
S1: in Gaza, with Benjamin Netanyahu denying there is starvation, and
10:21
S1: particularly denying that Israel has a role in causing that.
10:24
S10: What a bold face lie. There is no policy of
10:29
S10: starvation in Gaza and there is no starvation in Gaza.
10:35
S1: What does Donald Trump say this week about what's going
10:38
S1: on in Gaza? And what does that reveal about kind
10:40
S1: of Western opinion on the issue?
10:42
S2: I think it revealed that opinion is being influenced by
10:47
S2: what people can see on television, what they can see
10:50
S2: in the news about what's happening in Gaza. And we
10:53
S2: know from reputable aid organizations that we're talking about widespread
10:59
S2: starvation and genuine hunger. And it's not a media beat up.
11:04
S2: And Donald Trump's comments really amplified that because he he
11:09
S2: called it starvation. And he was asked by a journalist
11:13
S2: at his appearance with Keir Starmer in Scotland, um, about
11:17
S2: Benjamin Netanyahu's remark that there was no starvation in Gaza.
11:20
S2: And Trump said.
11:22
S11: I don't know. I mean, based on television, I would
11:24
S11: say not particularly because those children look very hungry.
11:27
S2: But later on, he said, some of those kids, that's
11:32
S2: real starvation stuff.
11:33
S11: Good strong food. We can save a lot of people.
11:36
S11: I mean, some of those kids are. That's real starvation stuff.
11:39
S11: I see it, and you can't fake that. So we're
11:43
S11: going to be, uh, even more now.
11:47
S2: We know that Donald Trump is a massive consumer of television.
11:51
S2: And I think you can see from his remarks here
11:54
S2: he's being influenced by what he's seeing in the media.
11:57
S2: It's not just about, you know, private advice from security
12:01
S2: advisors and so forth. But I think he's also been
12:03
S2: influenced by Keir Starmer because they do seem to get along.
12:07
S2: It's a bit unlikely in many ways because Keir Starmer
12:09
S2: is coming from the left. But Keir Starmer was there
12:12
S2: at Donald Trump's golf course. Starmer's wife Victoria, was also there. Um,
12:17
S2: it seemed to be quite convivial and maybe that had
12:20
S2: some influence. Starmer had briefed to the British media before
12:24
S2: this Scottish appearance that Gaza was the top item on
12:29
S2: the agenda. So Starmer's objective was to move Trump on Gaza.
12:34
S2: And I think you would have to say that he
12:35
S2: got something out of that.
12:37
S3: And a whole underlying factor with this whole Palestinian discussion
12:42
S3: has been, uh, Donald Trump and how important he sees
12:46
S3: the issue. For example, if Australia recognizes Palestine or that
12:50
S3: make it harder for us to get a good deal
12:53
S3: on tariffs, will that influence this review into Aukus? Uh,
12:57
S3: people in the government don't want to go there Explicitly,
13:01
S3: they say that we're making independent decisions as a sovereign nation,
13:04
S3: but there's a big awareness that you don't want to
13:08
S3: annoy Donald Trump. So by sitting back, Anthony Albanese can
13:12
S3: see how Trump is reacting to what the UK is
13:16
S3: doing to what Canada is doing. And it seems that
13:20
S3: he's said clearly that he doesn't agree with recognising Palestine now.
13:24
S3: But he doesn't seem angry at Starmer over it. As
13:28
S3: David says, the two get along and Starmer has received
13:31
S3: the best trade deal so far from Trump. So I
13:35
S3: think Albanese will be taking some comfort in that, that
13:38
S3: it's not the central issue for Trump and perhaps he
13:41
S3: can move and not be punished. You know, he's looking
13:44
S3: at getting a meeting with Trump and all these issues.
13:47
S3: From what we've seen so far, it seems that he
13:51
S3: could proceed and have a good relationship with Trump while
13:54
S3: joining the UK and Canada and France by recognising Palestine.
13:59
S1: Another big moment in the Australian debate on what's going
14:03
S1: on in Gaza this week. Knotty were claims from the
14:05
S1: Israeli embassy that there is no starvation going on in Gaza.
14:10
S1: You're in this briefing that I think was held by
14:12
S1: the deputy ambassador. Can you tell us what happened there
14:15
S1: and why the Israeli embassy took this step?
14:18
S3: Yeah, it was interesting timing, to say the least, because
14:22
S3: this briefing for a small group of journalists from broadcast
14:26
S3: and print media, it came up right as Israel was
14:30
S3: changing its aid distribution policy, and the government had announced
14:35
S3: these ten hour tactical pauses, and they were now airdrops
14:39
S3: in Gaza and opening up more corridors, which seems to
14:43
S3: be an acknowledgement from the government that something is wrong,
14:47
S3: that more aid needs to be getting to the people
14:49
S3: of Gaza. And yet, as that's happening, journalists are called
14:54
S3: into a briefing where we're told that there's no starvation,
14:58
S3: not just that there's not a deliberate policy of starvation,
15:02
S3: or that it's Hamas's fault that there's starvation, but that
15:06
S3: it's essentially fake news, that there is starvation in Gaza,
15:10
S3: despite everything we're seeing, despite the numbers that we're receiving
15:15
S3: from organizations like the UN. To be honest, it had
15:18
S3: a bit of a feel of don't believe your own
15:21
S3: lying eyes. And yeah, it's strange. It clearly it followed
15:26
S3: what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had said earlier. So I
15:30
S3: think this is clearly a top down directive from the
15:34
S3: Israeli government that they wanted their diplomats around the world
15:38
S3: to put out this message now, but I don't know
15:41
S3: how well timed it was given. Uh, clearly most people
15:45
S3: think there is starvation in Gaza. There's overwhelming evidence that
15:50
S3: that is happening. We should probably be smarter just to
15:53
S3: say we're going to do our best to allow more
15:57
S3: aid in while limiting, uh, Hamas's ability to get any
16:01
S3: of it. It was curious timing.
16:02
S1: I know there was quite a bit of discomfort, even
16:04
S1: among some of the Jewish groups privately at these comments.
16:07
S1: I don't think they thought they were politically astute. But
16:09
S1: then a few days later, it was revealed by the
16:12
S1: New York Times that one of the key images of
16:14
S1: the one year old boy who provoked quite an emotional
16:18
S1: response from the Prime Minister on Sunday, and that inside
16:20
S1: his interview, uh, had pre-existing conditions that might have exacerbated
16:24
S1: his appearance of, uh, being malnourished. Is that a significant fact,
16:29
S1: or is that one small piece of evidence when there's
16:32
S1: actually much more clear empirical evidence of malnourishment and starvation?
16:37
S3: I think it's a small piece of evidence, and many
16:40
S3: people are very fixated on this one photo, which did
16:44
S3: receive global attention, including on the front page of our papers. Um,
16:49
S3: in journalism, the full story always matters. Context always matters. Um,
16:54
S3: if you were there reporting, you'd want to know as
16:58
S3: much as possible about the family and the people you're
17:01
S3: writing about, and that should all be disclosed. But this
17:05
S3: isn't the one case. This isn't the only child. And
17:08
S3: if it was, that would be a single case. The
17:11
S3: point is that it was pointing to a bigger issue
17:14
S3: here of starvation. The the there are the numbers. There
17:18
S3: are many other photos, many other cases. The idea that, uh,
17:23
S3: this child also had pre-existing conditions which have then been
17:28
S3: worsened by an inability to get baby formula, the idea
17:31
S3: that that somehow knocks out the idea that there's starvation
17:34
S3: in Gaza doesn't really stack up.
17:37
S1: Mhm. So I wonder what's next. David, there's been talk
17:41
S1: in Australia from the Foreign Minister, Penny Wong, that the
17:44
S1: Palestinian Authority, this more moderate political force that might one
17:48
S1: day take over from Hamas is reforming and is calling
17:51
S1: for the release of hostages. I think it's still very
17:54
S1: early signs. The Arab League nations also for the first time,
17:57
S1: condemned Hamas's October 7th attacks this week, which has sparked
18:01
S1: some positivity about a potential move from Arab states to
18:05
S1: bring about peace. Is there any chance of peace on
18:08
S1: the horizon or a grand bargain led by the US
18:11
S1: and Saudi Arabia?
18:12
S2: It seems fairly unlikely because when you look at the
18:15
S2: reaction from Israel, it's so vehemently opposed to these new
18:20
S2: messages from around the world that it's hard to see
18:23
S2: Benjamin Netanyahu and his government changing course simply because of
18:27
S2: these global signals. I mean, really, the priority has got
18:30
S2: to be to get food aid in. And Israel says
18:34
S2: it is helping on that front. But the aid organizations,
18:38
S2: I mean, the detail from them is incredible in terms
18:40
S2: of the number of trucks that they've got available and
18:43
S2: the amount of food they've got available and the amount
18:45
S2: that they simply cannot get across the border and into
18:48
S2: Gaza to the people who need it. So I think
18:51
S2: that really is the priority, um, in terms of the
18:54
S2: global discussions about a ceasefire or pressure on Israel. It's still,
19:01
S2: you know, it's still moving. I think, um, with a
19:04
S2: lot of discussions behind closed doors where we can't be
19:08
S2: sure of any concrete outcome. Donald Trump is impatient with Netanyahu.
19:13
S2: I think that's clear from his his messages. But whether
19:16
S2: that leads to anything is always impossible to tell with
19:19
S2: Donald Trump. Um, Keir Starmer is actually incredibly active. He
19:25
S2: didn't just call, um, Anthony Albanese to talk about Gaza.
19:29
S2: He talked to Christopher Luxon, put in a call there
19:31
S2: to the New Zealand prime minister, who's also been talking
19:34
S2: to the United Arab Emirates as well. So he's really
19:38
S2: trying to move behind the scenes to really push this.
19:41
S2: So maybe we get to something at the United Nations
19:44
S2: in September, where there's a growing clamour around putting pressure
19:48
S2: on on Israel. Um, but that's still a fair way
19:53
S2: down the track. And I think it'd be, uh, I'd
19:56
S2: want to be cautious about whether it's going to lead
19:58
S2: to anything concrete.
20:00
S1: Um, And what about in Australia? Not for many years
20:05
S1: we've thought about Palestinian recognition as something that comes at
20:08
S1: the end of a peace process, when there is actually
20:10
S1: a potential state, there to be governed. We're in a
20:13
S1: perpetual war here. Hamas is still in control. Doesn't that
20:18
S1: lend weight to the Prime Minister's view that recognising now
20:21
S1: would simply be tokenism? And I mean, if you look
20:23
S1: at what Keir Starmer is saying, he's using recognition almost
20:27
S1: as a leverage tool. That was never how recognition was conceived.
20:31
S1: So is the Prime Minister right to wait and what's
20:34
S1: next from him, do you think?
20:36
S3: Yeah, I think he's right to want it to be
20:38
S3: something more than tokenistic, more than symbolic, because the vast
20:43
S3: majority of the world's countries have recognised Palestine. That doesn't
20:48
S3: really mean anything on the ground as more countries have
20:52
S3: recognised Palestine. The actual prospect of a Palestinian state has
20:56
S3: been moving further away in the tangible, concrete facts on
21:01
S3: the ground when you're talking about the huge growth of
21:04
S3: settlements in the West Bank, for example, that many people
21:08
S3: now say would basically make it impossible perhaps to have
21:12
S3: a functioning state there, because there are over 500,000 Israelis
21:16
S3: living in what is supposed to be a Palestinian state.
21:20
S3: Others say, look, there are ways to deal with that,
21:23
S3: with carve outs, and you move people around and we've
21:26
S3: got to keep this idea alive. So the Prime Minister
21:29
S3: is absolutely right that there are huge obstacles here, and
21:33
S3: you want it to be useful. Uh, the flip side
21:36
S3: to that is that the formulas and the templates of
21:42
S3: this debate clearly haven't moved it in the right direction.
21:45
S3: And there's this whole consensus around the world about the
21:49
S3: way this peace process should work. But that's incredibly theoretical.
21:53
S3: It's been going nowhere. We've had the October 7th attacks.
21:58
S3: We've had the war. We've had the Israeli government moving
22:02
S3: in a much more right wing direction. So I think
22:06
S3: there's an element of desperation to some of this, of
22:08
S3: saying what we're doing isn't working. We're going to try
22:10
S3: and turn over the table, change up the playbook. Um,
22:15
S3: hopefully recognition will do something useful. Uh, but I do
22:19
S3: think it's from that place of, uh, well-meaning, you know,
22:23
S3: but but rather desperate attempt to make something happen here.
22:27
S3: And maybe it will nudge things in the right direction.
22:30
S3: Some of the commitments from the Palestinian Authority sound good,
22:34
S3: but it's obviously a huge problem that there's no buy
22:37
S3: in from the Israeli side, not just the Netanyahu government,
22:40
S3: but even the left wing parties in Israel say this
22:46
S3: whole recognition push is so badly timed. You know, you're
22:50
S3: going to need, uh, two partners for peace and a
22:53
S3: two state solution who are going to have to make big,
22:56
S3: difficult historic compromises on the Israeli side and the Palestinian side.
23:02
S3: And that's something we don't have yet.
23:05
S1: Mm. Well, it's devastating that we're even talking about this
23:09
S1: two years on, but, uh, it was great to talk
23:11
S1: to two of the best informed journalists on this topic
23:15
S1: in the country, although he's not in the country anymore. But, David,
23:17
S1: it was great to have you. Thanks both for joining.
23:20
S2: Great to be back. Thanks.
23:22
S3: Thanks for that.
23:30
S1: Today's episode was produced by. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills,
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