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The 5 o' Clock Shadow with David Shapiro and Viv Govender · Strictly Business

• 0:00
  You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
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  The JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock
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  shadow.
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  And as always on a Thursday, I speak to David Shapiro from Sasson Securities,
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  currently in Manhattan,
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  and Viv Govender from Ransuisse, currently in Durban.
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  Viv, last week you spoke about the war and you were very sombre and you were very
• 0:23
  sober
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  and you were slightly more pessimistic than I think either myself or David were
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  at the time.
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  time.
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  Now, things may have changed because it seems to me, and I'll start with you
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  again, Viv, if I may,
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  it seems to me that things are getting worse and Mr.
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  Trump's got a bit of a hole to dig himself out of.
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  Would you say that's right?
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  Yes.
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  And again, I've never been like somebody that's very anti-Trump, you know, it's not
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  like I try and call balls and strikes.
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  And like, as you say, this is so stupid.
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  He starts this war, right, at a time where he did not full up the US oil reserves.
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  The oil reserves were depleted under Biden.
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  Trump promised to fill them up.
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  Trump chooses to go to war with Iran.
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  Trump did not fill up the oil reserves in the months leading up to the war.
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  How stupid was that?
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  I mean, that is like the most, that is like one of the dumbest moves ever.
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  You could explain to a five-year-old, you know, what you would, what you would do in
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  war and the five-year-old thing, let's stock up on the stuff that's going to be
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  cut off because of the war.
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  I mean, it is such a stupid thing to have done, number one.
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  The next thing is that I think the Iranians.
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  As you go, you know, irrespective of the morality or whatever, from a game
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  strategic point of view, what they're doing is the only logical thing they can
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  do.
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  They have to keep on fighting for as long as possible, because should they stop,
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  they are just going to be attacked next year.
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  You know what I mean?
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  The way this is going at the moment, there is no deal that they can make other than
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  abdicating that's going to basically let them, you know,
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  not be attacked.
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  And given what they've done in the past, they can't abdicate because they will not
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  survive for long in the country.
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  after what they've done to that country.
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  You know what I mean?
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  There's enough, I think, ill will towards them, real ill will towards them, the
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  leadership of the Iranians,
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  that they won't be a viable life in the country if they basically give up
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  leadership.
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  So from their point of view, they are going to probably fight a lot longer than
• 2:16
  you think.
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  From Trump's point of view, he can't really stop this thing until he gets some
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  real concessions from the Iranians.
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  And so I don't see how this ends, you know, quickly unless there's some outside
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  force acting here.
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  Exactly.
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  It's not going to end quickly.
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  In fact, and if he does put troops into the region, then I'm sorry, you've got
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  another Afghanistan on your hands.
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  David Forrest Gump once said that his mother told him, stupid is as stupid does.
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  Okay, now this applies to Mr.
• 2:47
  Trump.
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  Viv, who's not an anti-Trumper, unless it's a strike.
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  But he really did do something stupid this week when talking about the school.
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  This is the latest in a string of gaffes that he's made.
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  He said, no, it was definitely the Iranians from what he's seen and heard, he
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  said.
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  And he talked about the fact that America sells Tomahawk missiles to other
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  countries,
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  almost implying that America had sold the Tomahawk missile to Iran that hit the
• 3:19
  school.
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  Now, the only countries that they've sold it to is Australia, the Netherlands,
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  France.
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  and the united kingdom and those those people are really not involved so the the
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  way he keeps on putting his his
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  foot in it and says in kentucky last night the war's over we've won it and then at
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  the end he says but we're still going to continue
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  anyway david you have to come in on this one because you're at the heart of it
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  reading all the american media that we don't oddly
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  enough the striking of the school hasn't caused as much fuss as i thought it would
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  um and i think that's
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  That's why.
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  simply because of what the Iranians are doing, raining down on their allies, you
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  know,
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  being indiscriminate about their targets and the kind of missiles that they're
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  using as well.
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  So that I thought it would make more of a headline, you know, particularly in New
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  York,
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  which is hugely anti-Trump.
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  But I must say something else that the public support is starting to wane.
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  And particularly when they talk about, you know, ground troops.
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  And this is grinding on.
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  You know, this is not going to be over in a week or two or where we now going into
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  almost three weeks.
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  You know, this could go on for a month or even longer than that.
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  And the longer it goes on, the more the upper hand shifts towards Iran.
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  As much as we don't want to say it, you know, it really shifts towards their
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  incredible resilience.
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  the You know, the new...
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  Khomeini came out now, I don't know, within the last hour or so and gave a
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  statement saying, listen, you know,
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  we're going to keep the Straits of Hormuz closed.
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  And of course, that's why oil is shot up like it has and equity prices and
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  everything else has come down.
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  You know, that's because they're not giving in.
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  And I don't think they are going to give in.
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  I think they're just going to keep grinding away.
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  And I think this is starting to...
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  worry, you know, really get to people and worry.
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  Okay, so what do we do now?
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  Who's going to win?
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  Is this going to be a truce?
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  Is this going to be a draw?
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  Whatever it is.
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  And if it comes out as a draw, you know, with both kind of teams standing down,
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  then Iran's going to claim victory.
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  You know, they're going to say, listen, you know, we stood up to these, to
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  America.
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  So Trump has got to do something big.
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  He doesn't want to hit the energy sources.
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  Meaning electricity.
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  You know, I'm not talking about oil reserves or anything like that,
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  or oil tanks or anything like that.
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  But really, he can put down their power source,
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  meaning electricity source on the grid and everything.
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  He doesn't want to do that because he doesn't want to stop a new regime coming
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  in.
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  And he says it will set them back a lifetime, almost take years and years to
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  do that.
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  But he's got to do something.
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  You know what I mean?
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  He's got to do something big now to show that he's in charge and that he is really
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  winning the war.
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  And I'm not saying he is.
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  I'm just saying he's got to do something.
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  If he doesn't, I think it's going to play against him as well.
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  You're going to find more and more opposition to where he is now and calling
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  for
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  Congress to intervene and so on.
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  I think he's backpedaling.
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  He's backpedaling.
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  He's got another problem as well, and in the form of Russia and China.
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  And he said that he's had a call with, what's his name, Putin.
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  And Vitkov said, we trust what Putin says.
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  He says, we believe him, we take him on his word that he hasn't been feeding
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  intelligence to Iran.
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  Now, how anyone can say that about Putin, doesn't matter what the subject matter is,
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  how anyone can say that we believe what he said is beyond me.
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  But the thing is about Russia is that if the Iranians can't export their oil to
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  China, 98%
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  of their oil goes to China, a little bit to Syria, a little bit to Venezuela,
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  funnily enough, but 98%.
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  And Viv last week was talking about Karg Island, which is the main refinery, which
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  they haven't hit yet because that would be disastrous.
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  Then oil would be at 125 to 150. So Russia is now probably saying,
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  or China is probably saying to Russia, look, We've got 88 days left of reserves.
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  We might need to keep on topping it up.
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  Can you sell it to us?
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  I don't know how oil trading works.
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  I don't think anyone apart from those right at the top do.
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  But Russia is a problem and China is a problem.
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  And Viv, you've been probably watching that as well, given the fact that you
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  brought up the Karg Island issue last week.
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  What do you make of it?
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  It's playing into Russia's hands to a certain extent.
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  In other words, boosting their foreign reserves.
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  Yeah, look, I mean, there's something called the shadow fleet.
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  I don't know if you've heard of that before.
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  But Russia has a shadow fleet that basically it uses to move oil around the
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  world, right?
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  And recently, the shadow fleet had been under a huge amount of pressure.
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  The U.S.
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  has attacked a few.
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  The Ukrainians have attacked a few.
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  Now, I think with what Trump is doing, he knows that he wants to have the Russian
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  oil in the market because it kind of helps him.
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  So the Russians are effectively allowed to move their oil quite a bit more easily
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  than they did in the past, which is going to really fill up their coffers.
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  It's going to, you know, if you're strangling somebody and you let them
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  breathe as much as they want to.
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  Suddenly, they basically have a lot more time.
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  A month of breathing allows them many months of continued resistance after this.
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  So the Russians right now are selling to the Indians.
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  They're selling to the Chinese.
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  They're always moving more freely than it was in the past.
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  And they're going to be selling oil when the oil price is $100.
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  A discount even here is going to give them $80, $70 a barrel, which is way higher
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  than they were getting in the past.
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  So it's going to be a huge windfall for the Russians, number one.
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  Number two.
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  You know, if they do have a draw, like David said,
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  it makes total sense for the Russians and the Chinese to rearm the Iranians.
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  Once this stops, they will be pumping as much as they can into Iran.
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  Why?
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  Because they know Iran acts as a distraction to the U.S.
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  Should something happen in Taiwan, should something happen in Ukraine, the Americans
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  can't just focus on that because now you have this Iranian regime
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  that's rearmed and dangerous again, if you know what I mean.
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  So it really...
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  does not make sense from a geopolitical point of view, this whole kind of thing
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  that the Americans have done at the moment.
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  It really is a very silly thing to have done.
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  But the one thing I would mention about Cog Island, yes, the Marines are
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  important, but 20% of the world travels through the Straits of Hormuz,
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  20%.
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  If you had to look at the last, I think, six, you know,
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  crisis energy crisis we've had in the past ukraine the one with the uh the
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  1970s and so on the current shutdown per day on a daily basis is worse than the
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  next
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  five combined that's how bad it is it's it's not just the biggest it's bigger than
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  the next five combined
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  so it is it is by far the worst energy crisis we've ever seen in the world and if
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  this lasts a month or two i mean we are talking uh
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  places like south africa places that are importing oil Thank you.
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  are going to be a real problem.
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  I mean, we're talking rationing.
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  What does rationing of oil look like in South Africa?
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  What does our economy do if this goes on to June or July?
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  We're not talking about years.
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  We're talking three, four months from now.
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  We are going to have a very different South Africa at that point in time.
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  It's very interesting.
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  Sorry, David, go on.
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  No, you go on.
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  No, I was going to say, I've been trying to do some work on what Viv is talking
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  about,
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  particularly from the South Africa.
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  African economy.
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  And we are incredibly vulnerable to this.
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  You know, we import the finished product.
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  You know, most of our refineries have been mothballed.
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  So we don't refine any.
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  We don't refine crude.
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  We bring in the product.
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  And when you bring in the product, you haven't got the storage facilities for
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  that.
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  And if nothing else is coming in, you know, you cause clog ups.
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  And if you can't store anymore or you can't take anymore, you know,
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  you're going to cause all kinds of issues with the supply chains.
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  But my big issue is that if we can't get this finished product, and
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  I lived through this in the 70s, where there was fuel rationing and also speed
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  limits imposed on the country,
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  we couldn't go more than 50 k's an hour or something.
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  Even if you were traveling, I think if you were traveling down to Durban, you
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  couldn't do 120.
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  I think you had to do 100 k's an hour, slow speed to conserve fuel.
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  So we have, and also you could only buy a certain amount.
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  So we've lived through something like this before, which was the other previous
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  crisis.
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  But I think South Africa, from an inflation point of view, there are many
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  areas in which, you know,
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  the knock-on effect of higher oil prices for our economy are quite disastrous,
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  including a possible shortage.
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  Yes, that's very interesting.
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  and someone said to me that they had South Africa's head two months of stock
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  available.
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  And that was 10 days ago or something like that.
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  But anyway, the markets are not panicking,
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  but there's something a little bit darker about the way that they're trading at the
• 12:33
  moment.
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  When the markets open at midnight, I've just finished watching a Champions League
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  football.
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  David and Viv.
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  So I'm awake.
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  I can't sleep after watching that.
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  So I put the markets on and immediately oil spikes.
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  And it's been going up gradually ever since.
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  And when Khamenei came on or his spokesperson came on and said,
• 12:54
  we're going to keep the straight closed, then it goes up a little bit more.
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  And the way that the futures, the index futures, started ticking down, it wasn't a
• 13:05
  big spike down.
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  it was general selling and david just stay with you on this one because you've looked
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  at markets and the way they behave longer than we have
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  that's that's the way that a sort of a bear market behaves not a big rush just a
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  quick just a slow
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  grind lower yeah it's a it's a drip and there are no stories coming out at the
• 13:26
  moment all the
• 13:28
  corporate stories are just falling on
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  kind of uh deaf ears nobody's watching them the everybody's occupied with
• 13:35
  the oil price.
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  Most of the discussion is around that.
• 13:41
  I just wanted to add one point to Viv, which is quite interesting to you as well.
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  Sorry, Lindsay.
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  In the sense that, no, why I say that about America's oil reserves,
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  I don't think it's about America's oil reserves because they're net exporters.
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  I don't know the qualities.
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  I don't know all of that.
• 14:00
  What Trump is worried about and that's what it comes down to.
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  I think what he says about allowing Russia to supply oil, he wants the price down.
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  It doesn't matter where it goes.
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  You know, Russia can supply anybody, but as long as the supplies are coming out,
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  the price will go down.
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  So I don't think America is going to be short of oil.
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  He wants that price down because he's promised the public, you know, the oil
• 14:27
  price was
• 14:29
  $45, sorry, a barrel, whatever it was.
• 14:31
  And he promised that the pump, it will be $2.
• 14:34
  below.
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  You know, that's it.
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  It's now 360.
• 14:37
  So, you know, and as I've said before on the show, and, you know, to you, Lindsay,
• 14:43
  in America,
• 14:45
  everything at the moment in the US is about affordability.
• 14:47
  Jobs are being lost.
• 14:48
  People are battling with their...
• 14:51
  With their budgets, the last thing they want as we go into summer is to pay more
• 14:57
  for gas, you know,
• 14:59
  more for petrol.
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  So I think he's, I don't think with him it's a supply issue.
• 15:03
  I think it's a price issue.
• 15:05
  It very much is.
• 15:07
  He focused on the local economy last night when he was in Kentucky.
• 15:10
  He looked wider than normal, by the way.
• 15:12
  I don't know if he's...
• 15:13
  He looks shiny.
• 15:14
  He's enormous and he was sweating.
• 15:17
  I mean, it's probably hot in Kentucky at this time of year, I don't know.
• 15:19
  And the chap that he introduced with the beard, did you see him, David?
• 15:22
  Did you watch him?
• 15:23
  Did you see how he was sweating under his arms through his suit?
• 15:26
  I don't know what he was on.
• 15:27
  I thought he had some cream on his face.
• 15:29
  He was on something.
• 15:30
  I don't know.
• 15:31
  But anyway, what was I talking about?
• 15:32
  Oh, yeah, he said, chinks, cheese, milk.
• 15:34
  He says they're all down.
• 15:36
  And he didn't say by how much.
• 15:37
  He said a lot since he's been in.
• 15:40
  And The Economist on CNN.
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  Sorry, David, I watch CNN.
• 15:43
  It's all I've got here at the moment.
• 15:45
  The woman on The Economist, she said, what's he talking about?
• 15:48
  I mean, this one's up 16%, that one's up 12.5%, et cetera.
• 15:52
  He sounds like a broken record from his pre-Elections era.
• 15:57
  And I don't know, people in Kentucky may be believing it, but I think people are
• 16:04
  going to get fed up with him just like they're going to get fed up with the war.
• 16:06
  The Standard Bank today, we had a couple of good ones from the short-term insurers
• 16:10
  like Outsurance and Santam.
• 16:12
  Viv, anything that's caught your eye outside of what we've been talking about?
• 16:15
  Yeah, I mean, Sunarm, I think, is interesting here.
• 16:17
  You know, they say volumes are at records.
• 16:20
  I do think that, you know, obviously, you know, if you have the asset management
• 16:27
  operations in Africa over the last year or so,
• 16:29
  you are smiling at the moment.
• 16:31
  We've had a very good, you know, return last year, the best we've had in several
• 16:33
  years.
• 16:33
  And obviously, if you are in that business, you're looking quite good.
• 16:37
  With regards to, you know, Standard Bank's results, I think they are, again, you
• 16:41
  know,
• 16:41
  in an overall environment.
• 16:45
  they are seeing gains in the digital retail sector.
• 16:48
  The one thing I have to be concerned about, especially with the banking sector,
• 16:54
  the shift to digital is happening,
• 16:56
  but it also means that they're much more vulnerable now to these new banks out
• 17:01
  there because you don't have that mode of your branch network to
• 17:03
  help you out.
• 17:05
  If customers are moving more digital, any digital bank can be your competitor out
• 17:06
  there.
• 17:07
  That's going to be, I think, quite an interesting overall environment in a
• 17:10
  decade or so.
• 17:10
  David, you're not a big fan of the banks, are you?
• 17:13
  In South Africa, anyway.
• 17:15
  So I know you've had a look at this is what I normally say to David.
• 17:20
  David, have you looked at these results?
• 17:22
  And he'll say, yes, I had a look at the headline and I had a look at the summary,
• 17:29
  but I can't go through 105 pages of standard banks in an afternoon.
• 17:31
  Is that exactly what you're going to say?
• 17:31
  You've got to believe it.
• 17:32
  You've got to believe it.
• 17:33
  But I think the one thing that captured my attention I'm not big on Africa
• 17:39
  investment.
• 17:41
  I confine my investments, as we've spoken so many times before here,
• 17:47
  to the world's biggest companies, where the growth is coming and so on.
• 17:50
  I'm not going to repeat that.
• 17:51
  But I looked at Standard Bank and I think if you want to invest in Africa,
• 17:57
  then go for our banks.
• 17:59
  Because I think something like 40% of
• 18:04
  Standard Bank's profits are now coming or earnings are coming out of Africa.
• 18:08
  Or, you know, in the region, not international, not outside, you know,
• 18:14
  outside the continent.
• 18:16
  So I'm saying if the only thing that struck me is that, OK, it's a fairly
• 18:20
  respectable earnings,
• 18:22
  but they're making good money outside Africa.
• 18:23
  That's whether you believe it's going to continue.
• 18:25
  I think they're still growing.
• 18:26
  They're very small areas.
• 18:27
  But, you know, somebody wants to invest in Africa, in inverted commas, rather than
• 18:34
  going for the shop riots or.
• 18:36
  or the retailers and that, I think the banks are doing okay, and it's propping up
• 18:39
  their numbers.
• 18:41
  But on a broader scale, I agree 100% with Viv.
• 18:44
  This is a very competitive area, where you're handheld,
• 18:48
  instead of going and bowing in front of the managers, we used to do in those old
• 18:53
  days,
• 18:53
  go into the marble halls of the big banks, you just do it on your phone,
• 18:59
  and you've got no loyalty anymore, you know, service.
• 19:02
  And The way that fintech is taking over, there was a company called Home Choice,
• 19:09
  which is pay now, buy now,
• 19:11
  pay later.
• 19:13
  I mean, very good results showing that, you know, how they use credit.
• 19:15
  You buy over three, I don't know, you know what I mean, buy now, it used to be like
• 19:19
  lay buyers.
• 19:21
  You want a pair of shoes, you get them now and you pay over three or four
• 19:26
  installments over a week.
• 19:28
  Seriously.
• 19:30
  So it's huge in the world.
• 19:32
  There was a, what's it, Viv Klarner?
• 19:34
  Yes, Klarna, exactly right.
• 19:36
  Klarna is massive.
• 19:38
  Every time you go and buy something online, it gives you the choice of Klarna.
• 19:38
  They've completely monopolized that part of the market.
• 19:43
  But this is undermining the traditional banking offering.
• 19:48
  So, yeah, but our banks don't lend money.
• 19:51
  That's why they're making so much money.
• 19:53
  You know, they don't want to grow the economy.
• 19:54
  They just want to make sure that they get a good return on equity.
• 19:58
  So if you want to start a new business in South Africa, you've got no chance of
• 20:02
  getting money.
• 20:03
  Come to America where you've got just piles of it.
• 20:09
  This is good.
• 20:10
  You should be in advertising, David.
• 20:11
  Come to America.
• 20:12
  We've got piles of money.
• 20:13
  Nice.
• 20:14
  Let me give you some.
• 20:16
  Let me give you some prices here.
• 20:17
  The dollar-rand has spiked in the wrong direction.
• 20:20
  The dollar has spiked, rather.
• 20:21
  1676, that's a percent move for the dollar against the round.
• 20:24
  2236, that's three-quarters of a percent gain for the pound.
• 20:29
  And the euro-rand is, what is the euro-rand?
• 20:32
  There it is.
• 20:32
  1930, that's a 0.8% move.
• 20:35
  Euro-dollar is 11530.
• 20:39
  A bit of a rush to the dollar.
• 20:40
  Not a rush, but again, a steady buy that I was talking about earlier on the gold
• 20:44
  price.
• 20:44
  has fallen $55 with that stronger dollar.
• 20:47
  $5,119 per ounce, down a percent.
• 20:51
  Platinum down 2.5% to 21.48.
• 20:54
  David's been calling the top in the commodities for a couple of weeks now.
• 20:58
  Palladium, David, well done, down 13% to $16.26 per ounce.
• 21:05
  Now let's have a look at the all-important oil price, which has slowly made its way
• 21:11
  now above 101.
• 21:13
  Brent Crudewell, $101.17.
• 21:14
  exactly 10% on the day.
• 21:16
  10.9% is the gain for the West Texas, which is $96.75.
• 21:22
  Natural gas prices up one and a half.
• 21:23
  Gasoline prices in the States wholesale $2.94, up five and a quarter percent.
• 21:29
  Heating oil, terribly important.
• 21:30
  I didn't know that one and a half million homes in the UK still use heating oil,
• 21:37
  mainly in rural areas, but nonetheless they use it.
• 21:39
  It's an 8.1% gain.
• 21:41
  So that's an important thing.
• 21:43
  And everything's going up.
• 21:45
  Soybeans, wheat, coal.
• 21:47
  all up over two percent uh copper price going the other way bad for south africa
• 21:50
  down 0.9 south african
• 21:52
  10-year bond was gosh look at it now 867.
• 21:54
  it's not as bad as it was a couple of days ago 867 but still a 19 and a half basis
• 22:01
  points higher the yield going higher
• 22:03
  the bond price coming down the us 10 year was 397 10 days ago where is it now um
• 22:07
  4.24 s p 500 futures are down what one point 1.2%
• 22:14
  if my screen, that's me making it up like Donald Trump, because I haven't got a
• 22:18
  screen in front of it.
• 22:20
  It's just gone off.
• 22:22
  But last time I saw 1.2% down and Bitcoin just below 70,000.
• 22:25
  Viv, before David gives us the indices and the movers on the JSC, can you give us any
• 22:31
  AI update?
• 22:33
  Last week, I sort of, I prompted you with the with the deep seek story, which hasn't
• 22:37
  seemed to come to fruition.
• 22:39
  Anything new this week?
• 22:41
  David, sorry, Viv, I mean, sorry, David.
• 22:44
  Yeah, look, I mean, with the AI stuff at the moment, I think we are waiting for the
• 22:50
  deep sink, the move to come out.
• 22:52
  I think that people are getting a bit more pessimistic about it because of the delays
• 22:54
  that have been occurring.
• 22:56
  And they do wonder whether or not it's going to be, you know, up to, you know,
• 23:02
  the same level in terms of what it was related to the American models.
• 23:04
  Some now suspect that it's going to be a greater, you know, fallback.
• 23:05
  There's also discussions about whether or where exactly it was trained and what is
• 23:10
  it trained on.
• 23:10
  And people are saying it was trained on NVIDIA chips, but outside of China.
• 23:13
  So basically, They had it done in some Southeast Asian countries that they
• 23:18
  trained this thing up in, using still NVIDIA chips.
• 23:20
  So that does mean that the
• 23:22
  Chinese chip ecosystem has not caught up yet to what the Chinese government wants
• 23:27
  it
• 23:27
  to be at.
• 23:28
  So yeah, I think the delays that are coming through, the fact that we have all
• 23:34
  the other rumors about the trading around
• 23:36
  NVIDIA chips, et cetera, these are not good news stories for the Chinese AI
• 23:40
  story.
• 23:41
  Okay.
• 23:42
  So we'll wait for a deep seek.
• 23:43
  I've actually downloaded the app on all my devices today.
• 23:46
  Sorry, David, go on.
• 23:47
  No, I'm just saying, if Tencent was up, I thought that was on some kind of release
• 23:54
  of,
• 23:56
  what's it, OpenClaw or something like that.
• 23:57
  I thought this was all related to that.
• 23:59
  But they shot up earlier on in the week, which gave Process and Asper's a bit of a
• 24:04
  lift here.
• 24:04
  Was that not connected with some release?
• 24:08
  Yeah, they have a thing called Crayfish.
• 24:11
  So open claw, right?
• 24:14
  So they use claw because of claw for anthropic, but it's not a T-A-L-W-E.
• 24:19
  And then they use molt because, you know, they changed the name like a lobster
• 24:23
  molts.
• 24:23
  And therefore it's claw, open claw.
• 24:25
  So it's crayfish with crayfish have claws.
• 24:27
  You know what I mean?
• 24:28
  Yeah.
• 24:28
  And so the Chinese are getting, are really switching on to this AI kind of thing.
• 24:35
  But it's very different from the other labs.
• 24:37
  So these agents have to use...
• 24:40
  somebody else's LLM.
• 24:42
  um so you you so if you have uh you know crayfish or you have open claw whatever it
• 24:49
  is you still have a a link into
• 24:51
  j deep seek or a chat gpt or clawed more likely and the clawed guys by the way are
• 24:56
  still
• 24:56
  considered to be the the for whatever reason these atropic guys seem to be able
• 25:03
  to punch way above their weight in terms of you know uh i think they are
• 25:05
  doing stuff that other people think is closer to agi than anything else and they
• 25:09
  don't have the funding the other guys do have They have less funding than
• 25:11
  Gemini, they have less funding than OpenAI, but they seem still to be the one
• 25:15
  that you'd work through.
• 25:17
  So where this works is you'd have this crayfish model fit into Kimi, fit into
• 25:21
  Open, Kimi, fit into
• 25:23
  DeepSeq, fit into Claw, whatever it may be, but you still have to have your local
• 25:27
  model or the LLM running it basically.
• 25:29
  And the fact of the matter is that right now it does seem that the
• 25:31
  Clawed model from the Anthropic seems to be light years ahead of what the Chinese
• 25:36
  have and the Chinese are not closing that gap.
• 25:38
  In fact, that gap is probably increasing.
• 25:40
  Yeah.
• 25:42
  Interesting.
• 25:44
  OK.
• 25:46
  All right.
• 25:48
  We'll keep an eye on that one.
• 25:50
  David, you're going to get the indices ready.
• 25:52
  I'm going to give you the movers and shakers to the upside and the downside on
• 25:54
  the JSC.
• 25:56
  Sassl, look at this thing.
• 25:58
  It's 50 rand a share.
• 26:00
  It's 172 rand a share, up nearly 6% today for obvious rand.
• 26:02
  Higher chemical prices, higher oil prices.
• 26:04
  Tungela up 4%.
• 26:06
  Goldfield's up 3.5%.
• 26:08
  British American Tobacco is weighing in with a 3.4% gain.
• 26:10
  On the downside, we've got Optasia.
• 26:12
  New listing on the JSC, 5.4%.
• 26:14
  Sounds like a Disney film, I've always said that.
• 26:16
  HCI down nearly 5%.
• 26:18
  AlphaMin down 4.5%.
• 26:19
  Sanlam down 3.7%.
• 26:21
  And GrowthPoint down 3.4%.
• 26:25
  David, I don't know how I'm doing in the challenge.
• 26:31
  I'm going to look now.
• 26:32
  No, no, please don't.
• 26:33
  I either want to be in the bottom quartile or the top quartile.
• 26:36
  I don't want to be in the middle.
• 26:37
  It changes all the time.
• 26:39
  It's quite remarkable how things change.
• 26:41
  But I think what I want to point out is that our market's now beginning to reflect
• 26:47
  an oil price of 100.
• 26:49
  Yes.
• 26:51
  And the impact that it's going to have on retailers and the banks and the property
• 26:52
  sector.
• 26:54
  Good point.
• 26:56
  And even though the oil share was only down 0.38 of a percent,
• 26:59
  some of the gold shares held up and also the rand provided some kind of a cushion.
• 27:04
  But I mean, overall, you're starting to see weakness.
• 27:08
  emerge in those areas.
• 27:10
  And I think it's going to be tough.
• 27:12
  You know, it's going to be really tough because we know when we never had
• 27:17
  electricity what it was like,
• 27:19
  and you're just going to get higher oil prices, higher diesel prices, higher
• 27:23
  transport prices,
• 27:25
  all of these things, I think, working their way into the price of food and
• 27:29
  everything that we use.
• 27:31
  So that whole business of me going for South African stocks, beating up South
• 27:36
  African stocks, the bottom five performers from last year,
• 27:38
  are they going to be the bottom five performers of this year?
• 27:39
  Are they, David?
• 27:40
  I was with you.
• 27:42
  I called that with you as well.
• 27:43
  I'm in the same kind of area.
• 27:45
  But I think it's going to hurt the consumer unless this war is over in a week
• 27:52
  or two and oil prices
• 27:54
  retreat.
• 27:56
  But we've just said it's not going to do that.
• 27:58
  Viv has got me very hungry with all that crayfish and lobster talk.
• 28:01
  So, David, can you just give me the closing indices, please?
• 28:04
  Okay.
• 28:05
  So the oil share ended down 0.38% at 116948.
• 28:09
  Top 40 down 0.29%, 109287.
• 28:13
  Resources just managed three quarters of a percent increase, but the rest of the
• 28:20
  market down quite significantly.
• 28:22
  Banks under a lot of pressure, as we mentioned now, and also some of the listed
• 28:26
  property down almost.
• 28:28
  2% as well.
• 28:30
  And generally, industrials under pressure, even though they were supported by a
• 28:34
  weaker end,
• 28:36
  which helped British American, ABM, the processors, NASPERS, just on translation.
• 28:41
  And they're big in the index, so they do carry weight.
• 28:44
  Okay.
• 28:44
  Gentlemen, thank you very much for your insight, as always.
• 28:46
  David Shapiro is from SAS for Insecurities, speaking to us from
• 28:50
  Manhattan.
• 28:50
  And Viv Govender is from Ransuisse, speaking to us from Durban.
• 28:53
  And that was the 5 o'clock shadow.
• 28:55
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• 29:02
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• 29:04
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