Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Mark Smith: ASB Senior Economist on new migration numbers

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Mark Smith: ASB Senior Economist on new migration numbers · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: So just under thirty thousand New Zealand has left the
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: country for Australia last year. This marks the highest level
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: of emigration across the Ditch since twenty twelve, highest in
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  Speaker 1: a decade. Mark Smith has got up early for us
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  Speaker 1: this morning. The senior economists at ASP Good morning to you.
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  Speaker 2: Mark, Good morning.
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  Speaker 1: Are these bad numbers or is this the normal outflow
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  Speaker 1: of kiwis as part of our great diaspora.
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  Speaker 2: I know the figures that are pretty bleak redit you
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  Speaker 2: think about it. Yeah, the normal sort of average for
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  Speaker 2: net migration is about a thirty thousand person inflow. We're
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  Speaker 2: currently running about fifteen thousand, so about half of usual.
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  Speaker 2: What we've seen over the last few years has been
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  Speaker 2: a sharp slowdown and the number of people coming in,
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  Speaker 2: and I've also seen record numbers of people leaving. So
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  Speaker 2: it's really a reflection I suppose of how weak New
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: zeal economy is.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: I was about to say, so we've got less people
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: coming in and more people going out, So what does
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  Speaker 1: that say to you?
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's very much a reflection of where we are
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: at the moment. I mean, comparing with Australia about I
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  Speaker 2: suppose departures at the moment are at a record high,
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  Speaker 2: and of that we've got about seventy thousand kiwis are
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  Speaker 2: going offshore and probably about seventy percent of going to Australia.
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  Speaker 2: So if you compare Australia, the unemprovement rate has been
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  Speaker 2: lower about four percent of the last twelve months. Ours
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  Speaker 2: is five percent and climbing. And that's already a reflection
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  Speaker 2: of where we are at the moment.
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  Speaker 1: But Australia is a bit of a basket case as well.
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  Speaker 1: Is it the Elderado? Is it the great Savior of people?
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  Speaker 1: If they went over there, are they going to be
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  Speaker 1: any better.
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  Speaker 2: Comparatively? Probably here, And that's probably the sad reality of
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  Speaker 2: where we are at the moment. But yeah, sure Australia
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  Speaker 2: is not the land of milk and honey for everyone.
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  Speaker 2: But thinks they're comparably stronger over there, and people are
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  Speaker 2: voting with your feet, all.
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  Speaker 1: Right, So how does this affect the economy? If more
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  Speaker 1: people are going and that means there's people are out
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  Speaker 1: there buying, it helps continue our moribund economy as it stands.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, Irad, So I think people are probably sort of
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  Speaker 2: sort of struggling to realize why the New Zealand economy
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  Speaker 2: and consumer spending in the housing market has not really
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  Speaker 2: going anywhere the lasted or twelve months, and this is
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  Speaker 2: really probably one of the key cantalysts is really much
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  Speaker 2: slower population growth and to think how they're viewing things
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  Speaker 2: will be you know, the economy is struggling to gain
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  Speaker 2: traction and with fewer people coming in, what it's really
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  Speaker 2: going to do is really constrained demand and the reserve
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  Speaker 2: bank the key thing will be implacently precious down the
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  Speaker 2: track will be lower. All that's equals and if you
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  Speaker 2: will see the propecial path rate continue to befall from here.
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  Speaker 1: And it interesting me to think about what that does
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  Speaker 1: to housing because we need less roofs overheads.
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right. You know, the housing market is really
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  Speaker 2: a key catalyst, very central to migration flows, and the
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  Speaker 2: housing market hasn't really gone in anywhere over the last
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  Speaker 2: twelve months, and a key catalyst that would be very
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: very low numbers of lower numbers of people coming in
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  Speaker 2: and more people leaving.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: The only answer is to fix the economy. But this
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  Speaker 1: current government's had eighteen months and they're not doing that
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  Speaker 1: great a job at that.
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  Speaker 2: Well, it takes a long time to ten things around
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  Speaker 2: so that to the moment people are voiding with your
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  Speaker 2: feet unfortunately.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Mark Smith, thank you for that depressing news.
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• 3:19
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• 3:22
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