Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / Ep 1096 | Are Happily Married Couples in America Making a COMEBACK?? | Guest: Carol Roth

Transcript

Ep 1096 | Are Happily Married Couples in America Making a COMEBACK?? | Guest: Carol Roth · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:01
  Stu does America.
• 0:06
  Welcome to Pseudos America.
• 0:07
  Carol Roth's going to join us with what to expect from Liberation Day part two.
• 0:12
  we got Crockett or Kamala.
• 0:13
  I mean,
• 0:14
  it's all kind of a crock,
• 0:14
  isn't it?
• 0:15
  Uh,
• 0:15
  we're going to take a look at what the Democrats and their future is looking like,
• 0:18
  but we're going to start by doing the return of the American marriage.
• 0:21
  I can give you bad news all day long,
• 0:22
  or we can talk about something really,
• 0:24
  really positive that's happening in our society.
• 0:26
  This is a real,
• 0:27
  a real thing.
• 0:28
  Um,
• 0:28
  by the way,
• 0:29
  uh,
• 0:29
  you might wanna know that,
• 0:31
  uh,
• 0:31
  if you happen to be a celebrity,
• 0:33
  almost none of what I'm about to tell you applies.
• 0:35
  I,
• 0:35
  there's a headline,
• 0:36
  Celebrity Breakups of 2025,
• 0:37
  all the couples who split this year,
• 0:39
  uh,
• 0:40
  from age six,
• 0:41
  and
• 0:41
  I'm just like
• 0:43
  flipping through this year.
• 0:46
  I mean there is a lot,
• 0:48
  I mean,
• 0:48
  now I will say what they call celebrities these days,
• 0:51
  you know.
• 0:54
  I,
• 0:54
  I don't know about 60% of these names,
• 0:56
  but,
• 0:57
  uh,
• 0:57
  they're celebrities in some way or another.
• 0:59
  There's pictures of them and everything,
• 0:59
  and unless they were all AI,
• 1:01
  all these people sadly have broken up.
• 1:03
  Uh,
• 1:03
  our hearts go out to them and their families if they have any,
• 1:06
  um.
• 1:07
  The reason I bring this up is because there's,
• 1:09
  I,
• 1:09
  I almost can
• 1:10
  remember where I was.
• 1:11
  Like I can actually kind of see where I was when I first heard the statistic,
• 1:15
  50% of marriages end in divorce.
• 1:18
  I don't know if it's like,
• 1:19
  like most people are like,
• 1:19
  there's a big event,
• 1:21
  you know,
• 1:21
  JFK gets shot or Donald Trump gets shot on stage,
• 1:24
  like you can remember where you were.
• 1:25
  I remember a stat.
• 1:27
  Uh,
• 1:27
  anyway,
• 1:27
  uh,
• 1:28
  that's,
• 1:28
  that's because I'm a loser,
• 1:29
  but I remember thinking that,
• 1:30
  that's an incredible statistic.
• 1:32
  Like to me.
• 1:32
  It was,
• 1:33
  you know,
• 1:33
  it was expected that everybody that got married stayed together.
• 1:36
  We knew there were exceptions to that rule,
• 1:37
  but 50% of marriages
• 1:39
  lead to divorce,
• 1:40
  and it's one of those stats that like,
• 1:42
  everybody knows
• 1:43
  and everybody is sure of,
• 1:44
  and everyone can kind of shake their hands and say,
• 1:46
  gosh,
• 1:46
  that's terrible,
• 1:47
  can you believe where we are as a society,
• 1:49
  blah,
• 1:49
  blah,
• 1:49
  blah,
• 1:50
  blah blah blah blah.
• 1:51
  The good news about all of this
• 1:53
  is that that stat is ancient.
• 1:56
  And it doesn't really apply to society anymore.
• 1:59
  This is a really good thing.
• 2:01
  50%
• 2:02
  of people ending in marriages ending in divorce is,
• 2:06
  uh,
• 2:06
  is,
• 2:06
  you know,
• 2:07
  depending on who you're married to,
• 2:08
  but it's fortunately,
• 2:09
  uh,
• 2:10
  no longer a thing,
• 2:11
  no longer a coin toss.
• 2:12
  Less than half of marriages predicted to end
• 2:14
  in divorce.
• 2:15
  And how do we know this?
• 2:16
  Well,
• 2:16
  of course we don't know how they all end,
• 2:19
  but we can watch the trends pretty closely,
• 2:20
  and what we're seeing is a major,
• 2:22
  major difference.
• 2:22
  And I'll show you,
• 2:23
  by the way.
• 2:24
  Chartapalooza today.
• 2:25
  We've got lots of charts coming your way.
• 2:27
  I'm gonna do my best
• 2:28
  to,
• 2:28
  of course,
• 2:28
  describe it to all our fantastic podcast listeners.
• 2:30
  By the way,
• 2:31
  if you're a YouTube viewer,
• 2:32
  why aren't you on following on podcasts as well?
• 2:34
  You can do both.
• 2:35
  There's actually no law against it.
• 2:36
  Donald Trump has an executive order,
• 2:38
  you can do both.
• 2:39
  So please do.
• 2:40
  Um,
• 2:40
  here is the first chart,
• 2:41
  the share of marriages ending in divorce,
• 2:44
  and what you see here is a starting point of year one of that marriage
• 2:48
  and the,
• 2:49
  uh,
• 2:49
  rate of divorce.
• 2:50
  If you go back to the very top
• 2:52
  right of this chart,
• 2:53
  you see the 1970s line,
• 2:54
  and the 1970s line was the peak.
• 2:56
  This is when that story was true,
• 2:58
  when it was 50% of marriages ending in divorce.
• 3:00
  It's about true.
• 3:01
  It's actually slightly higher than 50% as time has gone on.
• 3:04
  Uh,
• 3:04
  if you were married in the 1980s,
• 3:06
  the same is pretty much true,
• 3:08
  but a little bit less,
• 3:09
  right?
• 3:09
  You're a little bit below that 50% line.
• 3:11
  Uh,
• 3:12
  if you look at the 1990s,
• 3:13
  they're less as well,
• 3:15
  uh,
• 3:15
  and the 2000s is less than that.
• 3:17
  2010s even less than that.
• 3:19
  The only decade
• 3:20
  where marriages have stayed together at a better rate than the 2010s
• 3:24
  is the 1950s.
• 3:26
  And one thing I want to show you quickly on this,
• 3:27
  if you,
• 3:28
  if you watch with me on this chart,
• 3:30
  uh.
• 3:30
  The best rate is the 50s.
• 3:32
  It got worse in the 60s,
• 3:34
  it got really bad in the 70s,
• 3:35
  and since the 70s it has crept back
• 3:38
  toward more positive levels.
• 3:40
  The only,
• 3:40
  and it's funny,
• 3:41
  all these lines are very,
• 3:41
  very smooth.
• 3:42
  The only really real bump you can see in any of these lines is in the 2010s,
• 3:46
  and that seems to be right around the time of,
• 3:47
  uh,
• 3:48
  you know,
• 3:48
  right around the time of COVID.
• 3:49
  Um,
• 3:50
  but other than that,
• 3:51
  you see a situation of real improvement over our society,
• 3:55
  and you think about all the changes that have happened,
• 3:57
  there's some reasons for this we're going to get into
• 3:59
  why it's happening.
• 4:01
  But consider the culture around us and all the negatives
• 4:04
  that we talk about on a day to day basis.
• 4:07
  That's a really positive development,
• 4:09
  and there are some of those in our society that we shouldn't just look past.
• 4:12
  Let me give you a couple more from the same data set.
• 4:14
  Births to unmarried women.
• 4:16
  They seem to have
• 4:17
  plateaued
• 4:19
  in our minds.
• 4:19
  I think that rate is always rising,
• 4:21
  right?
• 4:22
  Until it was,
• 4:23
  and by the way,
• 4:24
  from 1960,
• 4:25
  it was only 5% of births went to unmarried women.
• 4:28
  It rose very steadily
• 4:30
  on almost a
• 4:32
  Consistent trend almost exactly
• 4:35
  all the way up until about 2010
• 4:37
  and in 2010 it seems to just have leveled off and stopped rising completely.
• 4:42
  We're now
• 4:43
  13 years is 2023 data,
• 4:45
  so we don't have the last couple of years,
• 4:46
  but 13 years into this.
• 4:49
  And we have not seen a rise
• 4:51
  in that time period.
• 4:52
  It has peaked at about 40% and stayed right there.
• 4:55
  Really
• 4:56
  positive
• 4:57
  development.
• 4:58
  Um,
• 4:58
  how about for married parent families?
• 5:01
  We saw that dropping.
• 5:02
  It was 85% back in the 19 1970,
• 5:05
  and it's it dropped and dropped and
• 5:07
  dropped and dropped and dropped and dropped until
• 5:10
  about 2012,
• 5:12
  and since 2012 has reversed.
• 5:15
  Again,
• 5:15
  this is married parent families
• 5:17
  has reversed and gone back from 64 to 66.
• 5:20
  Now that's just a slight uptick,
• 5:21
  it's not a massive one.
• 5:22
  But the fact that the falling has stopped is really positive,
• 5:25
  and a little bit of an upturn
• 5:27
  makes you think,
• 5:28
  hey,
• 5:28
  maybe there's something
• 5:29
  positive going on there as well.
• 5:31
  How about uh lower income families with married parents?
• 5:35
  This has been a real scourge in our society,
• 5:37
  where
• 5:38
  unfortunately lower income families have had problems keeping
• 5:42
  their parents together,
• 5:43
  which has led to bad outcomes for those children,
• 5:46
  uh,
• 5:46
  where we see wealthier families
• 5:48
  typically be able to stay together,
• 5:50
  so.
• 5:51
  It was 95% of wealthy families,
• 5:53
  that's dropped to about 87%,
• 5:54
  but again,
• 5:55
  been flat
• 5:56
  since about 2012.
• 5:58
  Uh,
• 5:58
  same thing
• 6:00
  for middle income families.
• 6:02
  It was 93% stayed together in the seventies,
• 6:04
  that dropped to 68%,
• 6:06
  but it's now reversed and come up a little bit to 70%.
• 6:09
  In lower income
• 6:11
  that's dropped as well from 67%
• 6:14
  to around 2012,
• 6:15
  bottomed out at 38%,
• 6:16
  but has risen back up to 42%.
• 6:19
  That type of thing leads to not only
• 6:23
  things that we can just feel good about,
• 6:24
  right?
• 6:24
  Like I'm glad parents are staying together.
• 6:27
  I'm glad kids have nuclear families that they can.
• 6:29
  Uh,
• 6:30
  be with,
• 6:31
  but also like has long-term societal benefits,
• 6:34
  right?
• 6:34
  When you have
• 6:35
  a kid who was raised in a two-parent family instead of a one-parent family,
• 6:38
  they're much less likely to commit crimes.
• 6:40
  They're much more likely to finish high school,
• 6:42
  they're much more likely to get through college,
• 6:43
  they're much more likely to
• 6:44
  hold down a job,
• 6:45
  they're much more likely to get married themselves.
• 6:47
  All these
• 6:47
  outcomes
• 6:49
  wind up being
• 6:50
  positive for society.
• 6:51
  And if you kind of progress,
• 6:52
  those kids
• 6:53
  who were born in let's say 2012
• 6:56
  are now 13 years old.
• 6:58
  Soon they'll be voting.
• 6:59
  Soon they'll have relationships.
• 7:01
  Soon they'll be the breadwinners and taxpayers of our society.
• 7:04
  All the good things,
• 7:06
  because taxpaying is so much fun.
• 7:07
  All the good things that go with life generally are improved by these metrics,
• 7:10
  and we'll get into some of that data here in a second.
• 7:12
  Uh,
• 7:13
  the racial element of this has always been a big issue as well.
• 7:16
  Some of the really bad incomes come from
• 7:18
  families not being together early on for kids,
• 7:21
  and that leads to all sorts of problems and,
• 7:23
  you know,
• 7:23
  crime rates and earnings and all these things later on in life.
• 7:26
  Well,
• 7:26
  that's starting to reverse a little bit
• 7:28
  as well.
• 7:29
  What we're seeing,
• 7:30
  I'm gonna give you these real quick,
• 7:31
  uh,
• 7:32
  it's been pretty flat for Asian families since the 1990s,
• 7:35
  since they've been measured.
• 7:35
  But if you go back for white families,
• 7:37
  um,
• 7:37
  these are black children and white children and Hispanic children
• 7:41
  with married.
• 7:42
  Parents
• 7:43
  and uh back in the seventies it was higher at 89%.
• 7:46
  It dropped but it's evened out for white parents at 76%.
• 7:49
  Hispanics,
• 7:49
  it was at 78%,
• 7:51
  has dropped to 60% but has been flat
• 7:53
  for about 12 years.
• 7:55
  And then uh 19 uh for black children,
• 7:58
  it was 59% back in the seventies,
• 8:00
  dropped all the way to 33%,
• 8:02
  but then has risen back up to 39%.
• 8:04
  Really positive things happening
• 8:06
  uh there.
• 8:07
  Everything going in the right direction and that's,
• 8:09
  and that's really positive.
• 8:10
  Now if you wanna look at.
• 8:11
  Very
• 8:14
  one little minor asterisk on some of these numbers
• 8:17
  is that things seem to get better during the COVID and post-COVID periods,
• 8:22
  and that's,
• 8:23
  there's just weird funky stuff that happened after COVID.
• 8:25
  I was going through some housing data yesterday
• 8:28
  and
• 8:29
  you see it there too.
• 8:30
  There was a massive rise in housing,
• 8:32
  and now we're seeing weird things happening where
• 8:35
  you know housing in the South is now kind of falling
• 8:38
  off a little bit after that huge rise they had post-COVID.
• 8:41
  And housing in the Northeast where it's hard to
• 8:43
  build homes and they have all sorts of restrictions,
• 8:45
  um,
• 8:46
  that is now prices are going up there
• 8:49
  and it's difficult for people to figure out what to do with their homes.
• 8:51
  Of course mortgage rates are a big part of that as well.
• 8:53
  Anyway,
• 8:54
  marriage rate has to do,
• 8:55
  uh,
• 8:56
  has kind of a similar pattern,
• 8:57
  you see the marriage rate.
• 8:59
  Rebounding after COVID,
• 9:01
  it had fallen from 60 to 50 and it's now back up to 58%,
• 9:04
  so hopefully that's a long-term trend,
• 9:06
  and a share of uh who are married stabilized since COVID.
• 9:11
  These are a percentage of adults who are married,
• 9:14
  uh,
• 9:14
  started off at 65%,
• 9:16
  dropped down to 55%,
• 9:18
  and has risen back up a little bit to 56%.
• 9:21
  Bottom line is all these trends
• 9:23
  are going in the right direction,
• 9:24
  and this,
• 9:24
  uh,
• 9:25
  all that data.
• 9:25
  Uh,
• 9:26
  comes from,
• 9:27
  uh,
• 9:27
  a,
• 9:27
  a group,
• 9:27
  uh,
• 9:28
  what's the name of the group?
• 9:28
  I forgot to tell you that,
• 9:30
  uh,
• 9:30
  Family Studies.
• 9:31
  Uh,
• 9:32
  Family studies put that all together.
• 9:33
  Uh,
• 9:33
  one of the guys,
• 9:34
  uh,
• 9:34
  over there
• 9:35
  also has a piece at The Atlantic.
• 9:36
  And by the way,
• 9:37
  uh,
• 9:38
  we'll,
• 9:38
  we'll be nice to people when,
• 9:39
  when they,
• 9:40
  uh,
• 9:40
  do good jobs.
• 9:41
  We bashed The Atlantic yesterday
• 9:43
  for some of their coverage on black spatulas.
• 9:45
  Go back and listen to that,
• 9:46
  uh,
• 9:47
  in that monologue.
• 9:47
  Probably the most important monologue of the year.
• 9:50
  Uh,
• 9:50
  but
• 9:50
  this one.
• 9:51
  And marriage still also important,
• 9:52
  uh,
• 9:52
  and they did a good story here on why marriage survives is by Brad Wilcox.
• 9:56
  Uh,
• 9:57
  let me give you some of this.
• 9:58
  Uh,
• 9:58
  rather quietly,
• 9:59
  the post-60s family revolution appears to have ended.
• 10:01
  Divorce is down.
• 10:02
  The share of children in two-parent families
• 10:04
  is up.
• 10:05
  Marriage is a social institution,
• 10:06
  is showing new strength even among groups
• 10:08
  that drifted away
• 10:09
  from the institution in the 20th century,
• 10:11
  including black and working class Americans.
• 10:13
  And contrary to criticism on the left and the right,
• 10:16
  that's.
• 10:16
  Good news for not only America's kids,
• 10:18
  but also on average,
• 10:19
  though not always married men and women today.
• 10:22
  There is no single model for a good marriage in the US today,
• 10:24
  and Most couples have their struggles.
• 10:26
  Men still do less child work and care,
• 10:29
  care less for,
• 10:29
  uh,
• 10:31
  do less housework as well,
• 10:32
  and disagreements over the division of household labor
• 10:34
  are a source of tension for some couples.
• 10:37
  Many women still value some traditional traits in men.
• 10:40
  Ah,
• 10:40
  is that coming back,
• 10:41
  huh?
• 10:41
  Um,
• 10:42
  such as breadwinning,
• 10:43
  and some men's unreliability as breadwinners is a
• 10:45
  source of strain for them and their wives.
• 10:47
  Now this is
• 10:47
  pretty consistent with what we've said
• 10:49
  about the way the culture has changed over the years.
• 10:51
  These are problems,
• 10:52
  you know,
• 10:52
  like,
• 10:53
  look,
• 10:53
  men are men and women are women.
• 10:55
  And I know the left doesn't like that.
• 10:56
  They don't want you to know that,
• 10:57
  they don't want you to think about that,
• 10:58
  they want you to think that everybody is gender fluid and
• 11:01
  nobody has a real role,
• 11:03
  and it's not to say that you can't have differences there,
• 11:05
  of course you can.
• 11:06
  There's all sorts of weird couples that make it.
• 11:08
  I can name a few,
• 11:10
  and many that look perfect and don't,
• 11:12
  right?
• 11:12
  But like those trends,
• 11:14
  when you look at the entire population tend to
• 11:17
  react
• 11:18
  to traditional roles.
• 11:20
  That's what people generally like.
• 11:22
  There's a reason why they became traditional.
• 11:23
  Right?
• 11:24
  It's because people like them.
• 11:25
  A 2016 study on divorce
• 11:27
  published in the American Sociological Review found that
• 11:29
  when a husband was not employed full-time,
• 11:32
  his risk of divorce shot up by 33% the following year.
• 11:35
  When a wife was unemployed,
• 11:36
  her odds of divorce did not change.
• 11:38
  Employment difficulties among less educated men are a big reason
• 11:42
  marriage rates are lower among the working class than among college graduates,
• 11:46
  and we all understand that,
• 11:47
  like,
• 11:47
  you know,
• 11:47
  part of the reason you get married is to find
• 11:49
  an element of stability,
• 11:51
  right?
• 11:51
  Of course you're getting married because of
• 11:52
  all the wonderful emotional flowery reasons,
• 11:54
  right?
• 11:55
  You love your spouse,
• 11:56
  you wanna spend your life with them,
• 11:57
  you wanna have kids with them,
• 11:57
  you wanna go on awesome vacations,
• 11:59
  you wanna do all the things that
• 12:00
  married couples do,
• 12:02
  boys and girls,
• 12:02
  but I will say
• 12:03
  part of it.
• 12:04
  Two is it gives you a foundation,
• 12:06
  right?
• 12:06
  It is a,
• 12:07
  it's it's,
• 12:08
  it's an element of stability in a life that can be chaotic.
• 12:11
  And of course when those
• 12:13
  elements of stability break down,
• 12:14
  you're gonna see a lot more divorce.
• 12:16
  You're gonna see
• 12:17
  more difficulty in relationships,
• 12:19
  and that leads to breaking up at times,
• 12:21
  but
• 12:22
  there seems to be less of that,
• 12:23
  which is really good.
• 12:24
  On the whole,
• 12:25
  marriage confers benefits to men and women alike,
• 12:28
  according to the 2024 general.
• 12:29
  Social survey married men and women ages 25 to 55
• 12:32
  are more than twice as likely to be very happy
• 12:35
  with their life as non-married as their non-married peers.
• 12:38
  Married women,
• 12:38
  men and women both,
• 12:39
  live longer,
• 12:40
  more financially secure,
• 12:42
  build more wealth than single Americans as well.
• 12:45
  Marriage has come back as good news for society.
• 12:47
  Children raised in two-parent homes are much more likely to graduate
• 12:50
  from college than those raised in other families and are less likely
• 12:53
  to be incarcerated.
• 12:54
  Who don't live with both of their married parents are far
• 12:57
  more likely to be depressed than those raised in intact families.
• 13:01
  In the past,
• 13:02
  American society has readily advocated for behaviors that
• 13:04
  can improve lives and and reduce social problems.
• 13:07
  Campaigns against smoking and teen pregnancy are two examples.
• 13:10
  We should,
• 13:11
  at a minimum,
• 13:12
  strive to ensure
• 13:13
  that young people have an accurate understanding of marriage today,
• 13:16
  not one that's outdated and certainly not one supplied by cranks.
• 13:20
  And zealots,
• 13:20
  certainly a lot there and a lot of really positive thoughts
• 13:24
  on what we can do
• 13:26
  for marriage.
• 13:26
  I mean,
• 13:27
  I'm not a big I don't necessarily want government putting all sorts of,
• 13:30
  you know.
• 13:31
  I don't want them pushing people into marriage.
• 13:33
  I,
• 13:33
  I also don't want them discouraging people from marriage.
• 13:35
  I think generally speaking,
• 13:36
  we should have appropriate vision and understanding of what marriage is,
• 13:39
  which is a real freaking positive for you if you do it right.
• 13:42
  Um,
• 13:43
  it's not always easy to do it right.
• 13:44
  It's not always your fault if you do it wrong.
• 13:46
  There's a lot of unforeseen things,
• 13:48
  you know,
• 13:48
  blah,
• 13:48
  blah,
• 13:49
  blah,
• 13:49
  blah blah,
• 13:49
  you know all the disclaimers.
• 13:51
  But generally speaking,
• 13:52
  it's a really positive institution.
• 13:54
  What a surprise,
• 13:55
  right?
• 13:56
  Go back and read this old book,
• 13:57
  it's a little dusty.
• 13:59
  Uh,
• 13:59
  you've got lots of weird numbers next to the words called the bib.
• 14:02
  Uh,
• 14:02
  go back and look at that,
• 14:03
  and it's got a lot of advocacy for marriage and,
• 14:06
  and the way that,
• 14:07
  uh,
• 14:07
  works out.
• 14:07
  A lot of knowledge,
• 14:08
  uh,
• 14:09
  in that particular book,
• 14:09
  but
• 14:10
  really it's just a human institution as well.
• 14:12
  It's something that like everybody,
• 14:14
  no matter what your faith is,
• 14:15
  it makes a lot of sense to get into a marriage
• 14:17
  if of course you find that right person.
• 14:19
  And there's a debate going on about
• 14:21
  the,
• 14:22
  about what marriage is.
• 14:23
  One of the reasons.
• 14:24
  Um,
• 14:25
  if,
• 14:25
  if
• 14:26
  people pick apart this data,
• 14:27
  one of the things they'll come up with is,
• 14:29
  yeah,
• 14:29
  that's true,
• 14:29
  but
• 14:30
  it's only true because
• 14:32
  people aren't jumping into marriages,
• 14:34
  um,
• 14:34
  they're not getting married really young,
• 14:37
  um,
• 14:37
  and they're not having shotgun marriages as much anymore,
• 14:40
  and there is some truth to that,
• 14:42
  by the way,
• 14:42
  um,
• 14:43
  you know,
• 14:44
  far fewer people are going into marriages if
• 14:47
  they happen to impregnate their girlfriend or,
• 14:49
  uh,
• 14:49
  uh,
• 14:49
  or boyfriend,
• 14:51
  of course,
• 14:51
  can be a male and pregnant,
• 14:52
  we all know that.
• 14:53
  Um,
• 14:54
  you know,
• 14:55
  that's true.
• 14:55
  Also true,
• 14:56
  uh,
• 14:57
  that,
• 14:57
  uh,
• 14:58
  people are waiting to get married a little bit longer.
• 15:00
  And,
• 15:00
  and look,
• 15:00
  you know,
• 15:01
  I think like
• 15:02
  this is not like a cowboys Eagles situation where you must pick one or you're,
• 15:06
  you're a crazy person.
• 15:08
  Um,
• 15:09
  there are,
• 15:10
  it depends on you.
• 15:11
  It depends on your situation here.
• 15:13
  I mean,
• 15:13
  I got married later in life.
• 15:15
  It worked out really well for,
• 15:16
  for us.
• 15:16
  I,
• 15:16
  I,
• 15:17
  you know,
• 15:17
  I,
• 15:17
  I think,
• 15:17
  uh,
• 15:18
  as a person who had kids later in life as well,
• 15:20
  I think I would have been a much
• 15:22
  worse dad,
• 15:23
  honestly,
• 15:23
  at 22 or 23 years old than I wound up being,
• 15:26
  uh,
• 15:27
  later in life.
• 15:28
  Uh,
• 15:28
  I'm happy with the way our lives turned out on that front.
• 15:31
  If you,
• 15:32
  but like,
• 15:33
  you know,
• 15:33
  if you got married earlier,
• 15:34
  great.
• 15:35
  Like,
• 15:35
  uh,
• 15:35
  you know,
• 15:36
  it probably worked out for you.
• 15:37
  The,
• 15:38
  the issue here I think is like.
• 15:40
  There's this the idea that some people on the left in particular have,
• 15:43
  which is like
• 15:44
  getting married early is crazy.
• 15:45
  Now it might,
• 15:46
  it's not for all people,
• 15:47
  so it works out really well for a lot of people
• 15:49
  and like I think the other side of it is like,
• 15:51
  oh well you gotta wait,
• 15:52
  uh,
• 15:53
  make sure you know,
• 15:54
  you know,
• 15:54
  you're in love with someone,
• 15:55
  but you gotta go to.
• 15:56
  A bunch of concerts and NFL games,
• 15:58
  so don't get married.
• 15:59
  Well,
• 16:00
  you know,
• 16:00
  hopefully you can do some of that stuff anyway.
• 16:02
  Uh,
• 16:02
  hopefully you can develop your career early on in a marriage anyway.
• 16:05
  Um,
• 16:06
  but like,
• 16:07
  it,
• 16:07
  it's not something to run away from.
• 16:09
  Like when you find the right situation,
• 16:10
  you should go for it.
• 16:11
  It's,
• 16:12
  it's,
• 16:12
  it's actually great.
• 16:13
  Uh,
• 16:13
  and there's a debate on this as to whether marriage should be
• 16:16
  seen as a foundational element or is it a capstone element?
• 16:19
  Is it like a,
• 16:20
  hey,
• 16:20
  this is,
• 16:21
  uh,
• 16:21
  you know,
• 16:21
  I've accomplished all these things,
• 16:22
  I've done all these things,
• 16:23
  and now I want to settle into a marriage,
• 16:25
  or
• 16:25
  is it a,
• 16:26
  uh,
• 16:26
  you gotta get married early so you can build that wonderful future?
• 16:29
  Well,
• 16:29
  yes,
• 16:30
  it's kind of both,
• 16:31
  right?
• 16:31
  Like you,
• 16:31
  you,
• 16:32
  there's no reason.
• 16:33
  Um,
• 16:33
  if you find the right person,
• 16:34
  you should build it,
• 16:36
  do it.
• 16:36
  Don't screw it up and wait,
• 16:38
  right?
• 16:38
  Like don't be like,
• 16:39
  oh gosh,
• 16:40
  uh,
• 16:40
  I found the right person and I'm going to sit around
• 16:42
  and not do anything because I'm scared of getting married early.
• 16:46
  Um,
• 16:46
  that's not a good,
• 16:47
  uh,
• 16:47
  situation.
• 16:47
  But also,
• 16:48
  like if you don't find the right person,
• 16:49
  you shouldn't rush into it.
• 16:50
  It doesn't make much sense.
• 16:52
  Um,
• 16:53
  it,
• 16:53
  it's really different
• 16:54
  for different people.
• 16:55
  So that's the way,
• 16:56
  uh,
• 16:57
  the data sort of breaks out and I,
• 16:58
  you know.
• 17:00
  The right way to look at it is don't look,
• 17:01
  don't choose quickly
• 17:03
  or slowly,
• 17:05
  you know,
• 17:06
  choose wisely.
• 17:08
  At your own pace,
• 17:09
  because you're an individual,
• 17:10
  and I will say if,
• 17:11
  if you don't do that,
• 17:13
  you will likely wind up in a book like this,
• 17:15
  which is
• 17:16
  about 100 pages of celebrity breakups.
• 17:18
  You don't want
• 17:19
  do any celebrity you see doing something,
• 17:22
  uh,
• 17:23
  best lesson out of all of this data.
• 17:25
  Do the opposite
• 17:37
  OK,
• 17:37
  let's be honest.
• 17:38
  Selling your house could be a massive
• 17:40
  headache,
• 17:41
  and you got the staging and the pricing and the paperwork,
• 17:44
  and it can get really overwhelming really quickly.
• 17:46
  And if your real estate agent
• 17:47
  isn't on top of things,
• 17:48
  it just gets worse.
• 17:49
  Uh,
• 17:49
  Glenn Beck went through this recently.
• 17:51
  Uh,
• 17:52
  he went through hassle more times,
• 17:53
  uh,
• 17:53
  than he can remember.
• 17:55
  Um,
• 17:55
  and so we started Real Estate Agents ITrust.com because it wasn't recent,
• 17:58
  it was a while ago now,
• 17:59
  and these years are all running together to me these,
• 18:01
  these days.
• 18:02
  Um,
• 18:02
  it is your shortcut to finding an agent who truly knows what they're doing,
• 18:06
  and these aren't part-timers.
• 18:07
  They're not,
• 18:08
  you know,
• 18:08
  someone's friend.
• 18:09
  They're not someone who just got licensed.
• 18:11
  They are people who are,
• 18:12
  you know,
• 18:12
  legitimate full-time professionals
• 18:13
  who know how to sell your home quickly and the best place,
• 18:16
  uh,
• 18:16
  price possible,
• 18:17
  and they've been vetted,
• 18:18
  and they,
• 18:19
  they are experienced,
• 18:20
  and they are genuinely people who get it.
• 18:22
  They manage everything,
• 18:23
  negotiations and paperwork.
• 18:24
  And staging and even professional photos.
• 18:27
  Glenn stands behind these agents because their results speak
• 18:30
  for themselves,
• 18:31
  and they have for a long time.
• 18:32
  I've been telling you about this company for a very long time.
• 18:34
  We've had great
• 18:35
  experiences from tons of listeners in this audience.
• 18:38
  Part of the charm of it,
• 18:39
  honestly.
• 18:40
  It's free.
• 18:41
  It's free to you,
• 18:42
  so why wouldn't you do this?
• 18:43
  Don't risk your biggest investment.
• 18:44
  Go with someone
• 18:45
  reliable.
• 18:46
  It's real estate agents Irust.com.
• 18:48
  Real estate agents Irust.com.
• 18:53
  We're about like 6 months into Donald Trump's 2nd term.
• 18:57
  Uh,
• 18:57
  the economy is still the number one topic,
• 18:59
  uh,
• 18:59
  when it comes to,
• 19:01
  uh,
• 19:01
  biggest concerns for voters in
• 19:03
  every poll,
• 19:04
  still number 1.
• 19:05
  I wanted to bring in somebody who could talk about the economy and,
• 19:08
  you know,
• 19:08
  wasn't gonna give me the mainstream media.
• 19:10
  Um,
• 19:10
  I want to sink Donald Trump at all costs view.
• 19:13
  Uh,
• 19:13
  also was not gonna give me the,
• 19:15
  I,
• 19:15
  um,
• 19:16
  I,
• 19:16
  I'm gonna talk to you like I'm Donald Trump's
• 19:18
  mother view and improve every single thing he's done.
• 19:20
  I wanna have somebody who actually understands this stuff and who's fair about it.
• 19:23
  Uh,
• 19:23
  and I thought we should bring Carol Roth on.
• 19:25
  She's a former investment banker and author of You Will Own Nothing,
• 19:29
  Your War with the New Financial World Order and How to Fight Back.
• 19:32
  Carol,
• 19:32
  thanks for coming back on the show.
• 19:34
  Yeah,
• 19:34
  it's always great to be with you
• 19:35
  and appreciate that fair and balanced introduction.
• 19:38
  You're welcome.
• 19:39
  You're welcome.
• 19:39
  Well,
• 19:39
  that's what I'm looking for here,
• 19:40
  you know what I mean,
• 19:41
  because
• 19:41
  I feel like sometimes I look at,
• 19:42
  you know,
• 19:43
  conservative media even and it's just like over the top,
• 19:45
  just everything is,
• 19:46
  this is just more winning,
• 19:47
  and then you look at the other side,
• 19:49
  it's just like Donald Trump is,
• 19:50
  you know,
• 19:50
  Hitler and Satan combined,
• 19:51
  and I,
• 19:52
  I can't take it anymore.
• 19:54
  What is actually happening with our economy right now?
• 19:56
  Give me a 50,000 ft view.
• 19:58
  So I think things are,
• 20:00
  you know,
• 20:00
  kind of in the middle,
• 20:02
  um,
• 20:03
  if you will,
• 20:03
  you kind of set that up perfectly.
• 20:06
  Um,
• 20:06
  Economic data recently has been fairly solid.
• 20:10
  We have,
• 20:10
  uh,
• 20:11
  you know,
• 20:11
  decent employment numbers,
• 20:13
  we got decent retail sales numbers,
• 20:16
  um,
• 20:17
  you know,
• 20:17
  the GDP came in higher than.
• 20:19
  Expected for the 2nd quarter
• 20:22
  and even though the stock market isn't the economy and it's
• 20:25
  a little bit more concentrated in terms of its wins,
• 20:28
  we continue to hit all-time highs.
• 20:31
  So we can certainly nitpick on each of those factors and give you,
• 20:36
  you know,
• 20:36
  some of the downsides of each of those,
• 20:39
  but if you take everything from a.
• 20:41
  Macro level overall things are chugging along and certainly in better shape
• 20:47
  than a lot of the predictions that were made,
• 20:50
  particularly from the left when we started off this year.
• 20:53
  Yes,
• 20:54
  that's kind of how I view it as well,
• 20:55
  honestly,
• 20:56
  like there's a lot of good things.
• 20:57
  I think there's been a lot of positives
• 20:59
  that have happened since the Trump administration.
• 21:02
  Has taken over
• 21:04
  and you know you mentioned GDP.
• 21:07
  We can go through a bunch of the different measures
• 21:10
  and
• 21:11
  it's interesting to look at this because I
• 21:12
  feel like we have the tariffs that are tomorrow's
• 21:16
  tariff day part 2.
• 21:17
  Is it Liberation Day Part two?
• 21:19
  Have we hit that title yet?
• 21:21
  I haven't heard it,
• 21:23
  but this is the day that we're supposed to get a bunch of new tariffs.
• 21:26
  So far it seems like a lot of the big ones are getting
• 21:29
  delayed again for another negotiation period.
• 21:33
  Where do we stand with that and what do we expect tomorrow?
• 21:37
  You know,
• 21:37
  I expect as we're having this discussion,
• 21:39
  there's probably something new that is going to
• 21:41
  be announced because with that deadline looming,
• 21:44
  um,
• 21:44
  there is an urgency to at least project that talks are continuing,
• 21:48
  and that's a pretty typical negotiation strategy,
• 21:51
  right,
• 21:51
  that you put a deadline with some penalties in place to ensure that
• 21:55
  you have the other side still at the table and so even,
• 21:59
  um,
• 21:59
  you know,
• 21:59
  within the last 24 hours.
• 22:01
  We're hearing that China,
• 22:03
  they're getting close on something with China.
• 22:05
  Uh,
• 22:05
  the Mexico,
• 22:07
  uh,
• 22:07
  deals have been pushed out for another 90 days,
• 22:10
  so that's not going to kick in.
• 22:12
  We've had some other big deals that have been announced,
• 22:15
  so there are only a handful,
• 22:17
  I think,
• 22:17
  of big partners,
• 22:18
  you know,
• 22:19
  when you think about maybe Canada and Australia,
• 22:21
  maybe a couple of others,
• 22:22
  um,
• 22:23
  where there really isn't
• 22:25
  something that has been.
• 22:25
  Announced at the time that we're talking
• 22:27
  and you know could be within the next day or so.
• 22:31
  So I think that they want to continue to push that along.
• 22:34
  The other reasons too that there's probably a
• 22:36
  sense of urgency here is that the Trump administration
• 22:40
  is back in the Court of Appeals
• 22:43
  trying to justify that President Trump has emergency authority
• 22:49
  to make to.
• 22:50
  You know,
• 22:51
  put these tariffs forward because that's the really what they're using
• 22:55
  as the guys for him to have those powers and there are some reports coming out saying,
• 23:01
  you know,
• 23:01
  he,
• 23:01
  he may not win on that.
• 23:03
  And so,
• 23:03
  you know,
• 23:03
  with that in place,
• 23:04
  obviously,
• 23:05
  if he can strike a deal,
• 23:07
  then he doesn't have to worry about maybe some of these other issues,
• 23:10
  um,
• 23:11
  you know,
• 23:11
  coming in from the courts.
• 23:12
  So I think there are a number of things that are really driving.
• 23:15
  The urgency here
• 23:17
  and I do expect that you know even if something happens on
• 23:22
  Liberation Day Part 2 Electric Boogaloo,
• 23:26
  that you know that that will then
• 23:28
  in short order say oh you know they're back at
• 23:30
  the table and we're going to extend this out.
• 23:32
  Yes,
• 23:33
  and I have to say I'm one of the believers that
• 23:36
  he's in real trouble legally on a lot of these tariffs.
• 23:39
  He does have some power to do this,
• 23:41
  but he is basically,
• 23:42
  I mean like
• 23:43
  the one that popped into my mind as
• 23:45
  particularly
• 23:47
  problematic
• 23:48
  was this recent Brazil
• 23:51
  50% tariffs on Brazil,
• 23:53
  which he explicitly made the argument it was just because they punished Bolsonaro.
• 23:57
  Now that might be justified.
• 23:59
  It might be
• 23:59
  morally correct that they should be punished for that activity.
• 24:03
  But like his power is pretty specific
• 24:05
  when it comes to a national defense type of crisis,
• 24:08
  and there's a few different categories,
• 24:10
  but I don't know that like,
• 24:11
  I don't like the way a former president of a country was treated,
• 24:14
  falls into that category at all.
• 24:16
  Well,
• 24:16
  and they've given so many other justifications for why they're doing the tariffs.
• 24:21
  They're doing them to raise revenue.
• 24:22
  They're doing them to bring manufacturing back.
• 24:24
  They're doing them,
• 24:25
  you know,
• 24:25
  because they like tariffs.
• 24:27
  There's 20 different reasons,
• 24:28
  and
• 24:29
  most of those are not emergency orders,
• 24:33
  national defense and security,
• 24:35
  as you.
• 24:35
  Mention,
• 24:36
  so unfortunately their own words may,
• 24:38
  well,
• 24:39
  fortunately if you don't like tariffs,
• 24:40
  but unfortunately for them,
• 24:41
  their own words may come back to bite them in terms of
• 24:44
  their own explanation as to why they're putting the tariffs in place,
• 24:48
  as you mentioned.
• 24:49
  Let me go one more on the tariffs here.
• 24:52
  We've mentioned a couple of deals.
• 24:54
  From my understanding,
• 24:56
  my reading of the situation,
• 24:57
  it doesn't seem like these are like traditional trade deals in which
• 25:01
  things are all the details are down on paper and there are signatures on paper.
• 25:04
  These are more like,
• 25:05
  hey,
• 25:06
  this is the outline of a deal.
• 25:08
  Let's fill in the details
• 25:10
  later,
• 25:11
  and part of it is these large dollar numbers
• 25:14
  that are being pitched around by foreign leaders.
• 25:17
  The EU estimates for how much gas they're going to buy,
• 25:22
  they'd have to turn the entire continent into a gas puddle to justify these numbers.
• 25:27
  It's more gas than they use,
• 25:29
  and it doesn't seem realistic.
• 25:31
  How much of this are these foreign leaders just come to Trump and saying like,
• 25:34
  oh yeah,
• 25:35
  $500 billion.
• 25:36
  Do we really believe we're going to be getting
• 25:38
  that amount of money in investment from these places?
• 25:42
  Yeah,
• 25:42
  well,
• 25:42
  let me start with the first part because,
• 25:43
  you know,
• 25:44
  as a dealmaker for 30 years who've done billions of dollars in transactions,
• 25:49
  you're absolutely right.
• 25:50
  These are not paper deals where we know all of the fine points.
• 25:53
  These are more like memorandums of understanding,
• 25:56
  where they have a framework that's written out,
• 25:58
  but that is all subject to change,
• 26:00
  that's all subject to to votes by the
• 26:02
  home country and the different entities involved.
• 26:05
  Um,
• 26:05
  so,
• 26:06
  you know,
• 26:06
  Trump is doing what Trump does best.
• 26:08
  Which is marketing,
• 26:09
  right?
• 26:10
  He is really good at marketing and selling and painting a great picture,
• 26:14
  and I'm with you,
• 26:15
  and this,
• 26:16
  by the way,
• 26:16
  is not specific just to this administration,
• 26:19
  but you know,
• 26:19
  if you go back historically to any time there's been
• 26:22
  this huge announcement about investment in the United States,
• 26:25
  and you try to go back and,
• 26:27
  and hold that to account or to,
• 26:29
  to,
• 26:29
  to figure out has anywhere near that amount of money been invested,
• 26:33
  um.
• 26:34
  It's pretty hard to find an example of that.
• 26:37
  So you're right,
• 26:37
  the numbers that are being
• 26:40
  thrown about,
• 26:40
  whether it's the EU buying gasoline or some of these
• 26:44
  sovereign wealth funds that are now going to make,
• 26:47
  you know,
• 26:47
  bigger investments in the United States than the entire GDPs of their nation.
• 26:51
  Uh,
• 26:52
  if you really dig into the details,
• 26:54
  you go,
• 26:55
  yeah,
• 26:55
  that's probably not going to happen.
• 26:58
  Also,
• 26:58
  you know,
• 26:59
  some of these
• 27:00
  Already are doing things with us.
• 27:02
  They're making investments,
• 27:04
  they're buying things,
• 27:05
  and so you don't know how much of it that is being touted is actually incremental
• 27:10
  to what it is that they're already doing,
• 27:12
  or just,
• 27:13
  you're shining a light on the fact that,
• 27:14
  hey,
• 27:15
  we're really great trade partners.
• 27:16
  So I do think that there's a lot more sizzle going on here than steak,
• 27:21
  um,
• 27:21
  which goes back to,
• 27:22
  you know,
• 27:23
  me being an early critic
• 27:25
  of the tariffs to be.
• 27:26
  To begin with,
• 27:27
  because,
• 27:27
  you know,
• 27:27
  while I do think there are certain areas which are critical,
• 27:31
  uh,
• 27:31
  for national defense,
• 27:33
  you know,
• 27:33
  areas like shipbuilding and rare earths and,
• 27:36
  um,
• 27:37
  you know,
• 27:37
  pharmaceutical manufacturing and components,
• 27:40
  you know,
• 27:40
  there are areas to really focus in on.
• 27:42
  This sort of broad brush stroke tariff approach,
• 27:46
  um,
• 27:46
  never really made a lot of sense,
• 27:48
  and even some of the finer details,
• 27:50
  as much as we'd like to reshore everything.
• 27:52
  To the United States,
• 27:54
  you know,
• 27:54
  given the cost of our energy,
• 27:56
  the regulatory situation,
• 27:58
  the cost of labor,
• 28:00
  you know,
• 28:00
  all of these things together,
• 28:02
  there are a lot of things that just will not get reshored,
• 28:04
  at least anytime in the next several decades.
• 28:06
  So I think we need to have a realistic veneer,
• 28:10
  but,
• 28:10
  you know,
• 28:10
  the Trump administration and perhaps the other
• 28:13
  side in finessing the Trump administration,
• 28:15
  of course,
• 28:16
  is going to sell the big dream,
• 28:18
  and why not?
• 28:18
  Aim higher than you know maybe you know you would have otherwise and maybe
• 28:22
  you get a little bit incremental on top of what you would otherwise achieve.
• 28:26
  Yeah,
• 28:26
  yeah,
• 28:27
  by the way,
• 28:27
  if you are working,
• 28:28
  I don't know if anyone's already done this,
• 28:29
  but if you're working at a think tank and you're like,
• 28:31
  I need a project to work on,
• 28:33
  I would love to see that study
• 28:34
  of all the people that make big promises for investment
• 28:38
  from out of the country.
• 28:39
  What,
• 28:39
  what percentage of that do we ever get going back 50 years?
• 28:42
  I mean that would be a fascinating study to actually know.
• 28:44
  Have you seen one?
• 28:45
  I have not seen anything,
• 28:47
  um,
• 28:47
  and I think there's a very clear reason why you
• 28:50
  haven't seen anything because the results would not be pretty,
• 28:53
  but I agree.
• 28:53
  Maybe,
• 28:54
  maybe with the advent of AI we can get,
• 28:57
  uh,
• 28:57
  you know,
• 28:57
  Grok or somebody to look into this.
• 28:59
  I like that.
• 29:00
  Somebody,
• 29:00
  somebody,
• 29:00
  there's somebody at like Cato or something that's like,
• 29:02
  oh,
• 29:03
  that's not.
• 29:03
  Bad idea.
• 29:04
  OK,
• 29:04
  so we have that.
• 29:07
  I find like one of the things that's interesting is
• 29:09
  there's like
• 29:10
  a take on both sides.
• 29:12
  I kind of mentioned this as we started,
• 29:13
  where the mainstream media is like,
• 29:15
  oh gosh,
• 29:16
  like everything Trump,
• 29:17
  he's going to raise tariffs and the entire economy is going to collapse
• 29:20
  immediately.
• 29:21
  And again it's about
• 29:24
  imported goods are about 10% of our economy,
• 29:27
  right,
• 29:27
  so it's hard to see that it would sink the entire economy even if you really,
• 29:32
  really went high
• 29:32
  on these,
• 29:33
  although it could do some damage.
• 29:35
  They're also,
• 29:36
  they're saying this is going to be the worst thing ever.
• 29:37
  On the right,
• 29:38
  what I'm seeing a lot of is
• 29:41
  it's worked right.
• 29:43
  We've got $150 billion of trade tariff revenue
• 29:47
  and we've seen no economic effects.
• 29:50
  So a couple of parts here.
• 29:51
  I think
• 29:52
  it doesn't make any sense to me that
• 29:54
  the economy would immediately collapse with this stuff.
• 29:56
  It's a small part of the economy.
• 29:58
  We've seen all these previous studies on tariffs that do show price increases,
• 30:01
  but they develop over a year or two,
• 30:03
  not necessarily immediately.
• 30:05
  So that's part one.
• 30:06
  And then part two on the right,
• 30:07
  it's like,
• 30:08
  well,
• 30:08
  you know,
• 30:09
  you have a situation here where Trump is,
• 30:11
  is,
• 30:12
  um,
• 30:12
  you know,
• 30:13
  it's going to take some time for this to go in,
• 30:16
  but like.
• 30:18
  Why would we think that this is a giant victory?
• 30:21
  First of all,
• 30:22
  why would we think that tariff revenue,
• 30:24
  which is tax revenue,
• 30:25
  is a win?
• 30:26
  Every conservative I've ever talked to in my entire life has
• 30:28
  said the government does not need more money in tax revenue,
• 30:31
  and all of a sudden we're praising that.
• 30:32
  That's my own little personal complaint.
• 30:36
  But
• 30:36
  in addition to that,
• 30:37
  like we've got a situation where,
• 30:39
  you know,
• 30:42
  this idea that this is already a one battle,
• 30:44
  I think is a real danger politically for Trump supporters.
• 30:47
  Can you talk about how
• 30:49
  this is affecting this entire situation and
• 30:51
  like you know if there's an offset to whatever damage might come
• 30:55
  from the tariffs with all the good things that Trump is doing.
• 31:00
  Yeah,
• 31:00
  this is such a rational conversation.
• 31:02
  I'm not even
• 31:03
  sure how we're having it.
• 31:05
  I know it's like there's so much common sense.
• 31:07
  So one of the things that I always hate about these
• 31:10
  cheerleaders who don't have a lot of economic background is,
• 31:14
  like you said,
• 31:14
  they declare victory too early,
• 31:17
  and with things that impact the economy,
• 31:19
  it does take a while to roll out,
• 31:22
  whether it is inflation,
• 31:24
  higher prices,
• 31:25
  or anything else,
• 31:27
  you know.
• 31:27
  Most of the time we don't have a jolt that
• 31:29
  is so substantial that everything comes to a stop.
• 31:33
  Now,
• 31:33
  if he had kept the 145% tariffs,
• 31:37
  you know,
• 31:38
  that came out on Liberation Day on China,
• 31:39
  something like that,
• 31:40
  which actually was an embargo,
• 31:42
  that was not a tariff,
• 31:44
  you know,
• 31:44
  then we could have seen that.
• 31:45
  But he again,
• 31:47
  he changed course and so that's why that didn't come to fruition.
• 31:50
  And we have all of these things that are ever changing.
• 31:53
  So it's being woven.
• 31:54
  And then it takes a little bit of time to work through the system.
• 31:57
  I'm with you.
• 31:58
  We just did
• 31:59
  the,
• 32:00
  the codification of the tax cuts,
• 32:02
  which was fantastic because everybody realized that
• 32:06
  raising taxes would be a disaster.
• 32:08
  But then they're turning around and cheering additional taxes on US consumers and
• 32:14
  businesses,
• 32:14
  particularly small businesses,
• 32:16
  and I don't think that a lot of the population still understands.
• 32:21
  Who pays tariffs.
• 32:23
  Like,
• 32:23
  for example,
• 32:23
  I have a partner who's a small business company.
• 32:26
  They're bringing in goods from China that,
• 32:29
  by the way,
• 32:29
  are designed in the United States,
• 32:31
  are marketed in the United States.
• 32:34
  Uh,
• 32:34
  customers even from other countries are paying
• 32:37
  to this company in the United States,
• 32:39
  but their,
• 32:39
  their supply chain is from China,
• 32:41
  and they're now paying 6 figures for something that used
• 32:45
  to take cost 4 figures to bring a container in,
• 32:48
  and this is Small business,
• 32:49
  and that is really substantial.
• 32:51
  And so what they have done is that they've absorbed part of it,
• 32:54
  and they've passed some of that on to the customer,
• 32:57
  and over time it's probably gonna get to be more and more to the customer.
• 33:01
  So that's why you haven't seen that show up yet,
• 33:03
  because it's,
• 33:04
  it's just coming in waves,
• 33:06
  and as we also know,
• 33:08
  the data that we have is,
• 33:10
  is absolutely trash.
• 33:12
  So the basket of goods that they put together in the substitute.
• 33:16
  may not show the reality of what we're feeling
• 33:19
  when we go to buy things in certain categories,
• 33:22
  and certainly we saw that in the Biden administration,
• 33:25
  where the reported inflation was probably 50% less
• 33:28
  than what it was that we were feeling,
• 33:30
  uh,
• 33:31
  when we went out to make those purchases.
• 33:33
  So I think that people need to understand,
• 33:36
  don't get,
• 33:36
  you know,
• 33:37
  those fist pumps in too early because you may end up eating your words.
• 33:41
  Now,
• 33:41
  hopefully,
• 33:43
  This all works its its way out and we come up with something that is livable,
• 33:47
  um,
• 33:48
  you know,
• 33:48
  maybe the courts intervene and,
• 33:50
  and it's just completely,
• 33:51
  you know,
• 33:51
  thrown by the wayside,
• 33:53
  um,
• 33:53
  but it is certainly a tax and an additional barrier,
• 33:56
  and given the fact that we do have a very tenuous fiscal situation,
• 34:01
  one that was handed over from the Biden administration,
• 34:04
  we cannot afford additional barriers.
• 34:06
  We really need to be removing barriers in order to increase growth and continue.
• 34:11
  You to push the economy forward so that we
• 34:14
  can deal with the debt and deficit problems,
• 34:16
  which have not been addressed and hopefully
• 34:18
  it's something that's coming down the pike,
• 34:20
  um,
• 34:20
  from the administration.
• 34:22
  But you know,
• 34:22
  these are the things,
• 34:23
  you know,
• 34:23
  it doesn't just happen overnight,
• 34:25
  it doesn't happen from quarter to quarter,
• 34:28
  and the left is making,
• 34:29
  you know,
• 34:30
  way too big of a deal out of it,
• 34:31
  and the right is taking too much of a victory.
• 34:34
  And I do think that we need to have,
• 34:36
  um,
• 34:36
  a more balanced,
• 34:37
  common sense approach talking about this
• 34:40
  and really.
• 34:40
  Understanding what the upsides and the potential downsides are
• 34:45
  in order to be able to have a productive conversation.
• 34:48
  Yes,
• 34:48
  in the same way you should be cautious about taking a victory lap so early.
• 34:51
  Also,
• 34:52
  the media,
• 34:53
  the media looks at,
• 34:54
  for example,
• 34:55
  the big
• 34:56
  trade-off.
• 34:57
  The benefit of this policy was supposed to be
• 35:01
  jobs in
• 35:03
  manufacturing here,
• 35:04
  and so far we've lost jobs in manufacturing since these tariffs have gone up,
• 35:08
  not too many,
• 35:08
  but some.
• 35:09
  It would be way too early to take a victory lap over that.
• 35:11
  It would make no sense.
• 35:12
  Like it's going to take a long time for that to develop.
• 35:14
  If it does develop,
• 35:15
  uh,
• 35:16
  it's something we should just all kind of
• 35:17
  watch with sensible eyes and,
• 35:19
  and don't get too in front of your skis because they're,
• 35:21
  you know,
• 35:21
  you're going to have to defend everything you're saying now in
• 35:23
  a year and during an election and that could get messy.
• 35:26
  Uh,
• 35:26
  Carol Roth,
• 35:26
  a former investment banker.
• 35:27
  Be sure to check out her new piece at The Blaze,
• 35:29
  by the way.
• 35:29
  It is called Private Equities Losing Streak Is Coming for your 401k.
• 35:33
  Yet another,
• 35:34
  uh,
• 35:34
  warning of danger ahead,
• 35:36
  um,
• 35:37
  and,
• 35:37
  uh,
• 35:37
  something you should definitely watch out for.
• 35:39
  Check out the piece,
• 35:39
  don't miss it and follow Carol on social media as well.
• 35:41
  Carol,
• 35:42
  thanks so much for coming on the program,
• 35:43
  and explaining all this to us.
• 35:44
  Oh,
• 35:44
  it's a pleasure.
• 35:45
  Thanks,
• 35:45
  too.
• 35:54
  New poll out in New York.
• 35:55
  Zoran Mamdani scores a 17 point lead with.
• 35:59
  Jewish voters?
• 36:01
  This is a man who cannot,
• 36:03
  I mean,
• 36:04
  despises Jews
• 36:07
  throughout his entire life's history,
• 36:09
  everything we know about the guy
• 36:10
  is that he can't stand Jews,
• 36:12
  and honestly,
• 36:13
  probably not all that broken up,
• 36:15
  uh,
• 36:15
  about October 7th.
• 36:16
  Uh,
• 36:16
  certainly didn't show any signs of it online,
• 36:18
  uh,
• 36:19
  yet here we are,
• 36:20
  uh,
• 36:21
  somehow,
• 36:22
  again,
• 36:22
  I understand that your,
• 36:23
  your choices are rough here,
• 36:24
  unless you were to choose actual Republican,
• 36:26
  I don't know.
• 36:27
  Um,
• 36:28
  Curtis Sliwa might be,
• 36:29
  uh,
• 36:29
  uh,
• 36:30
  someone you might want to consider
• 36:31
  in that race,
• 36:31
  but if you're not gonna consider him,
• 36:33
  you got 3 other choices.
• 36:34
  They're not very good,
• 36:36
  uh,
• 36:36
  frankly,
• 36:36
  but,
• 36:37
  uh,
• 36:37
  it's got to be better than this guy.
• 36:39
  I,
• 36:40
  I,
• 36:40
  I mean,
• 36:40
  this is a guy who basically wants your homeland eliminated from the
• 36:43
  face of the earth and has been very upfront about that.
• 36:46
  It's hard,
• 36:47
  hard to imagine.
• 36:48
  Uh,
• 36:48
  anyway,
• 36:48
  uh,
• 36:49
  Democrat Jasmine Crockett also in the news,
• 36:51
  you're speaking of crazy Democrats,
• 36:52
  um,
• 36:53
  she is trying to head
• 36:55
  the US House Oversight Committee,
• 36:57
  and
• 36:57
  I don't know how this slipped by me,
• 36:58
  honestly.
• 36:59
  It's been a crazy week,
• 37:00
  but
• 37:00
  there's a profile in The Atlantic on Jasmine Crockett.
• 37:03
  Uh,
• 37:03
  and,
• 37:04
  you know,
• 37:04
  I,
• 37:04
  I love her.
• 37:05
  I mean,
• 37:05
  she's,
• 37:06
  she's got no,
• 37:07
  uh,
• 37:07
  she's fantastic.
• 37:08
  I want her to,
• 37:09
  uh,
• 37:09
  to be the Democratic nominee in 2028.
• 37:11
  I want her to lose terribly
• 37:13
  after that,
• 37:13
  but I do want her to be the Democratic nominee in 2028.
• 37:16
  Anyway,
• 37:16
  uh,
• 37:17
  she says,
• 37:17
  uh,
• 37:17
  what's her qualification?
• 37:19
  For
• 37:20
  uh the head
• 37:21
  of the House Oversight Committee,
• 37:22
  this is a quote from her,
• 37:24
  uh,
• 37:24
  it's like there's one clear person in the
• 37:26
  race that has the largest social media following.
• 37:32
  So
• 37:33
  that's her argument,
• 37:35
  and it's a,
• 37:35
  I mean,
• 37:35
  it's
• 37:36
  probably the best point she's ever made.
• 37:38
  Uh,
• 37:38
  it's a low hurdle to clear,
• 37:40
  uh,
• 37:40
  but by the way,
• 37:41
  go to,
• 37:41
  uh,
• 37:41
  studosmerch.com and get the Jasmine Crockett shirts we have.
• 37:44
  Uh,
• 37:44
  those are of course fantastic.
• 37:46
  Jasmine Crockett,
• 37:47
  28 for Democratic nominee
• 37:49
  and nothing else,
• 37:50
  uh,
• 37:50
  or else you're a racist,
• 37:51
  of course.
• 37:51
  Uh,
• 37:51
  Kamala Harris not going to run for California governor,
• 37:53
  uh,
• 37:53
  opening a door for a 2028 run.
• 37:56
  She's saying she hasn't decided on whether she wants
• 37:57
  to run again and go through that process,
• 37:59
  which has worked.
• 38:00
  It worked out really well for the Democrats.
• 38:02
  Uh,
• 38:02
  in fact,
• 38:03
  her running again does seem like it would be a
• 38:05
  really positive thing if Jasmine Crockett can't get the nomination.
• 38:09
  I say put her back in.
• 38:10
  You can put her on the ticket again,
• 38:11
  Crockett Harris,
• 38:12
  I don't know,
• 38:12
  something like that.
• 38:13
  Uh,
• 38:14
  anyway,
• 38:14
  uh,
• 38:15
  she thought about the governor thing,
• 38:16
  she's decided not to do it,
• 38:18
  um,
• 38:18
  and you're wondering,
• 38:19
  well,
• 38:20
  we didn't really ask,
• 38:22
  you know,
• 38:22
  why are you bringing this up?
• 38:23
  There's a reason,
• 38:24
  of course,
• 38:25
  why she's bringing it up.
• 38:25
  Kamala Harris is announcing
• 38:27
  a new memoir,
• 38:29
  yes,
• 38:29
  a new memoir about her presidential campaign.
• 38:33
  You might say,
• 38:33
  wasn't that like 107 days long?
• 38:35
  Uh,
• 38:36
  yeah,
• 38:37
  it was,
• 38:37
  and that's the reason I know that is because the book is entitled 107 Days.
• 38:42
  So she's going to tell you the,
• 38:43
  the,
• 38:44
  uh,
• 38:44
  you know,
• 38:44
  well,
• 38:45
  let's be clear,
• 38:46
  she's going to lie to you about what happened in those 107 days.
• 38:49
  Uh,
• 38:49
  that is what's going on.
• 38:50
  But I am,
• 38:51
  I,
• 38:52
  I am legitimately,
• 38:53
  and I'm,
• 38:53
  I bring this up every once in a while,
• 38:55
  legitimately fascinated by
• 38:57
  the Tim Walls choice.
• 38:59
  It was so catastrophic
• 39:01
  and so stupid in every single way,
• 39:05
  and I'm fascinated about how that happened.
• 39:07
  There is like some of the reporting we've seen is like,
• 39:10
  well,
• 39:10
  Josh Shapiro was a little difficult
• 39:12
  in his interview
• 39:13
  and maybe that's why,
• 39:15
  you know,
• 39:15
  she went in a different direction.
• 39:16
  There's some speculation that maybe Shapiro didn't really want
• 39:19
  it and went in there basically to sink himself
• 39:22
  so that he could run in 2028 for the top job.
• 39:24
  I don't know if I really buy that.
• 39:26
  Uh,
• 39:27
  I will say,
• 39:28
  uh,
• 39:28
  the,
• 39:29
  you know,
• 39:29
  the walls thing,
• 39:30
  of course you gotta throw in,
• 39:31
  um,
• 39:31
  you know,
• 39:31
  going back to the Mom Donnie story we just did.
• 39:33
  The idea that he's Jewish was not a positive,
• 39:36
  uh,
• 39:36
  for,
• 39:36
  of course,
• 39:37
  today's modern Hamas democrat.
• 39:39
  So I don't know,
• 39:40
  uh,
• 39:40
  we will see,
• 39:41
  maybe they'll have some detail on that,
• 39:42
  or at least she'll shine a little bit of light,
• 39:43
  and you might say,
• 39:44
  well,
• 39:44
  why would she do that,
• 39:45
  she's just gonna lie about it.
• 39:46
  Very true,
• 39:46
  but like she has publicly stated.
• 39:49
  The day
• 39:50
  that she picked him while she was overtired.
• 39:53
  She said that,
• 39:54
  that
• 39:54
  she doesn't say like I was overtired and I blew it on walls,
• 39:57
  she just is mentioning,
• 39:58
  just so you know,
• 40:00
  she was really tired that day,
• 40:02
  and that might explain why she made such a terrible,
• 40:05
  uh,
• 40:05
  terrible pick.
• 40:05
  Uh,
• 40:06
  by the way,
• 40:06
  um,
• 40:06
  I wanna play a game with you.
• 40:07
  We played this on radio,
• 40:08
  but if you missed it,
• 40:09
  uh,
• 40:10
  you may want to participate mentally.
• 40:12
  I'm gonna give you
• 40:13
  a headline from CNN
• 40:15
  and I want you to guess the year
• 40:17
  it was written.
• 40:18
  OK?
• 40:19
  What year was this written?
• 40:21
  Uh,
• 40:21
  uh,
• 40:21
  the headline is this.
• 40:22
  How conspiracy theories about COVID's origins are hampering
• 40:28
  our ability to prevent the next pandemic.
• 40:31
  What would it be?
• 40:32
  OK,
• 40:32
  you might say 2020,
• 40:33
  right?
• 40:34
  Well,
• 40:34
  there was a lot of talk about how the
• 40:35
  lab leak theory was a conspiracy theory back then.
• 40:38
  True,
• 40:38
  although,
• 40:38
  you know,
• 40:39
  as all the stuff's going on,
• 40:40
  you wouldn't necessarily be thinking about the next pandemic quite yet.
• 40:42
  2021,
• 40:44
  maybe it's kind of coming down.
• 40:45
  It's still around though,
• 40:46
  maybe 2022.
• 40:47
  OK,
• 40:48
  it's sort of in the past,
• 40:49
  and
• 40:50
  now you're starting might be thinking to the next conspiracy theory,
• 40:52
  but at that point,
• 40:52
  you know,
• 40:53
  the,
• 40:53
  the lab leak theory was kind of
• 40:55
  already coming back into prominence.
• 40:56
  People were already admitting it looked like the truth.
• 40:58
  Uh,
• 40:58
  2023,
• 40:59
  2024.
• 41:01
  The correct answer,
• 41:01
  by the way,
• 41:02
  on CNN's website is
• 41:04
  today.
• 41:06
  Today,
• 41:06
  2025,
• 41:07
  July 31st,
• 41:09
  2025,
• 41:11
  they're still
• 41:12
  slopping this nons,
• 41:14
  this crap onto your plate.
• 41:16
  They're still serving you this nonsense,
• 41:19
  uh,
• 41:20
  that there's,
• 41:21
  it's,
• 41:21
  it's a conspiracy theory to believe in the lab leak theory.
• 41:25
  In 2025,
• 41:26
  they're still,
• 41:26
  they're still hanging on that one.
• 41:27
  By the way,
• 41:28
  one of the authors,
• 41:29
  one of the authors is,
• 41:30
  uh,
• 41:31
  uh,
• 41:31
  Christian Anderson,
• 41:32
  who was one of the guys in the initial emails early on in the COVID,
• 41:35
  uh,
• 41:35
  situation,
• 41:36
  probably.
• 41:36
  Uh,
• 41:37
  you know,
• 41:37
  you,
• 41:37
  you probably remember that name.
• 41:39
  He was kind of saying,
• 41:40
  yeah,
• 41:40
  maybe it's a lab leak,
• 41:41
  and then all of a sudden totally changed and then made
• 41:43
  fun of everyone and called them conspiracy theorists for thinking that,
• 41:46
  even though he had already thought it.
• 41:47
  Um,
• 41:47
  he's one of them,
• 41:48
  uh,
• 41:48
  and,
• 41:49
  uh,
• 41:49
  a bunch of other authors,
• 41:50
  uh,
• 41:50
  as well.
• 41:50
  It's up on CNN's website.
• 41:51
  You can check it out now.
• 41:53
  By the way,
• 41:53
  if you want some truth
• 41:54
  about the COVID era,
• 41:55
  the newest episode of Blaze TV's great series,
• 41:57
  The Cover Up is available now.
• 41:59
  This is Matt Kibbe.
• 42:00
  If you missed the 1st 4 episodes,
• 42:02
  uh,
• 42:02
  be sure to binge them,
• 42:03
  uh,
• 42:03
  now and catch up because episode 5 is coming,
• 42:05
  uh,
• 42:05
  very soon here.
• 42:06
  It's ready to go.
• 42:07
  It's called Muckraker,
• 42:08
  and it digs into the pandemic.
• 42:10
  industrial
• 42:11
  complex showing how Fauci,
• 42:12
  Burks,
• 42:12
  and their government allies
• 42:14
  partnered with the social media giants to bury inconvenient facts and shut down
• 42:18
  dissent.
• 42:18
  Check it out right now.
• 42:19
  Blaze TV,
• 42:20
  uh,
• 42:20
  is the place to go to get that if you're a member.
• 42:22
  If you're not,
• 42:23
  go to Faucicoverup.com/Stew.
• 42:25
  Faucicoverup.com/Ste.
• 42:28
  Get 20 bucks off your subscription today.
• 42:30
  It's all
• 42:31
  on Blaze TV.
• 42:43
  OK,
• 42:44
  so here's what happened.
• 42:45
  I got one of these,
• 42:46
  uh,
• 42:46
  digital scales,
• 42:47
  uh,
• 42:47
  that logs your weight and kind of keeps track of them,
• 42:49
  and you should see that chart.
• 42:50
  You wanna see a crazy chart with ups and downs.
• 42:52
  Woo,
• 42:52
  there's a roller coaster ride on that one.
• 42:55
  but,
• 42:55
  uh,
• 42:55
  one of the things that's funny about it is sometimes I'll go on vacation,
• 42:58
  just eat like crazy,
• 43:00
  and if you do it and you've gained too much weight too fast,
• 43:03
  the scale thinks you're a different person,
• 43:06
  and it puts it in a category called unassigned,
• 43:08
  and there's a bunch of unassigned weigh-ins.
• 43:09
  Anyway.
• 43:10
  Uh,
• 43:11
  this happened to a couple,
• 43:13
  and you know,
• 43:14
  uh,
• 43:14
  the wife noticed it and it caused
• 43:16
  some problems.
• 43:17
  Um,
• 43:18
  bathroom scale helps suspicious wife figure out husband is cheating.
• 43:21
  This is expert level sleuthing.
• 43:23
  The unassigned,
• 43:24
  she looked and there was a bunch of people in a bunch of weigh-ins around 190,
• 43:26
  and then at 12:25 a.m.
• 43:28
  a couple
• 43:29
  weigh-ins at 120 pounds.
• 43:31
  That was not her weight.
• 43:32
  Uh,
• 43:33
  someone else in her bathroom,
• 43:34
  and he got caught.