Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / 💥Warning: Inflation Data Just Out! + Stock Market News 12 March 2024

Transcript

💥Warning: Inflation Data Just Out! + Stock Market News 12 March 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix, and welcome to this inflation madness.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Livestream Inflations come in well, not quite as expected, and that's, of course, going to move the world today, and I want you to understand better than anybody else out there what that's going to do to the market, how you can make money out of it when the rates are going to come down, and everything else that me and our former investment banker cats back there and share with you.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: I am going to shrink myself to the appropriate size and, oh yes, in 12 hours I'm running the first evening live trading training that we've ever done, and about 900 of you have registered, so there are literally 100 spots left, because I've already doubled the capacity, but I can't make the life room any bigger, even if Tallulah would want you to join.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: There is only one opportunity left to do so.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: So come and join us over there and, loving all the hearts on the live chat.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Thank you very much, and shall we have a look at what the data is?
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: So do you just not want to know?
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Do you just not want to know?
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: Shall we just skip past it and just sing kumbaya?
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: I think that's probably the right approach, isn't it?
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Isn't that what the government would do?
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: Well, let me take a screenshot of it and we'll properly, properly, go into this.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: I've got charts, I've got the data underneath the data, Got everything you want to know.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: You want to see what the first reaction is from the market.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: It's not terrible, except Google and well, Boeing.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: We need to talk about Boeing.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: Boeing is well.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Whistleblowers also fall out of airplanes, apparently.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: That's what happened over there.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: We'll get into that in a little while, which ties in quite nicely with the trade idea we put out on March 11th, which seems very topical right now, and we told you to buy a put.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Well, we didn't tell you, but we make you want to think about it, if you see what I'm saying.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: And so come and check out our trading newsletter, which is at godeacademysubstackcom, If you're wondering how to make money out of this.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: We are also live trading this already.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: In fact, we had a live session just now.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: It's already closed, Is it already over?
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Anyway, we're live trading it, so check it out and let's dive into this.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: So what was the market expecting?
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Well, the market was expecting core inflation, which is inflation minus food and energy.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Because why would you need food and energy?
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, surely, Surely you don't, Surely you were a robot, aren't you In Elon make?
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: You were expecting 0.3%.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: Well, we got 0.4%.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: That's not good.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: That's higher than expected.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: That means the Fed is not going to start cutting rates over the Christ Easter holiday because they eat so many chocolate eggs that they feel like doing so.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: No, they won't.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: And year on year it's also on the higher end of expectations.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: The regular and adulterated month on month inflation is also on the high end of expectations and it's important to understand the why.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: And you can see here we're sort of wobbling sideways we're going up, we're going down, we're going up, we're going down.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: We're not really coming down right, it's just not really happening.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: On the data front here.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Let me just see what's actually gone up here.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: So shelter has increased 0.4%.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: Rent has gone up half a percentage point.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Airline fares 3.6% percent.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, somebody's got to pay for all those extra doors that keep falling off.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Vehicle insurance up almost a percentage point.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: That's quite a lot.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: Medical care 0.5%.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: Hospital service 0.6%.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: I hope you were not involved in one of those airline incidents.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Drug set cheaper Yay.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: And dental services are up 0.4%.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: Personal care is half a percent more expensive.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: Furnishings are cheaper.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: Because no one's buying furniture, Because we're actually in a recession, but obviously that's a secret that government wouldn't want you to know.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: Now, right, you saw me mentioning on Sundays, my camera fell over.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: They know something.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: What about shelter?
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: So the big thing that's really come up a lot in this inflation saga was shelter rent or a cardboard box under a bridge somewhere near you and it's come down, but it's very sticky up here.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: Right, it's still like 6% year on year.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: We'd like it to come back down more to its long term trend of about 2.5%.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: That hasn't actually happened yet and if you look at Core, which is kind of what the Fed looks at, that's pretty elevated.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: We're not really falling massively.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: We're still at the 2021 levels.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: We're still at just under 4% here annually.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: That's not brilliant.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: What have we got here?
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: We've got service inflation and goods inflation.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: In yellow, we've got goods and we've been having goods deflation.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Goods were actually getting cheaper.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Now we've got inflation again.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: At the same time, in blue, services are still picking up very, very significantly.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: The majority is still here here.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: Services, that's year on year.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: We can skip past that.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: This is super cool.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: This is like the statistic that takes the biscuit.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: It's inflation minus food, minus energy.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: So fuel, electricity minus housing, what's left?
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Seriously, why are we even measuring this?
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: It's like hamster.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: Food has gone up Even when you exclude all the important things that we actually need to survive.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: Well, it's still up, isn't it?
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: On a month-on-month basis in green down here it's still at pretty elevated levels.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: If you go back here for the last two years, Inflation is proving a little bit stickier than we'd like it to be, a bit more like toffee than anything else.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: There is a nice visualization of what's causing a lot of this transport.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: I blame the truckers.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: You're going to blame somebody.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Transport is like the biggest component there.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: That's where we are, If you thought well, but inflation's come down a lot, so it's all well and good.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: A bit of Biden bashing right, we're allowed.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: We're allowed to bash the incumbent in the White House.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: It looks very comfortable in there.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: This is the Biden term so far 18.7% inflation in total.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: No, it hasn't gone down.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Just because it comes down, it doesn't mean you erase inflation.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: It would need to go up.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: The previous chap in the White House we shall refer to him simply as the orange one, Mr Le Tramp.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: We had 8% inflation.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: In the American perspective, one's got more inflation than other.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: Trump might be upset about this.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: He likes to be the biggest man in the room.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: He might be like I created more inflation than anybody.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: No, he didn't, but 10% less.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Biden gets an award here, gets a medal for creating more inflation than any president in recent history, which is something to look at.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Thank you everyone.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: One mission, one method.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: Don't forget shrink flation and crop flation, food flation.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: Cardboard boxes are up too Newly buying furniture.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: Indeed, Cardboard boxes are getting more expensive.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: The like button is apparently also getting more expensive.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: Only 85 of you have dared to press it.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, it might use some electricity.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: I can see why you're being cautious about it.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: I really can.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: But NVIDIA is up.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: So just say AI and everything is all right.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: I mean, what else matters?
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Ai and Bitcoin is up.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: So Bitcoin is up to some silly level.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: I wanted actually a day chart.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: Nvidia is oh, that's AI.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: I wanted NVDA.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: Did I type in AI and yeah, we're up.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: We're up at the top of yesterday's trading range, pretty much at 876, slightly above the 875 resistance, which is still a little bit there, although 900 is the big one.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: And then BTC USD for all you knuckleheads out there $72,000 and $145.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: That is almost all-time high but looking very, very good.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: So what are we worried about?
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: What about something like one of our favorite textbooks out there?
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Palantir is up a percentage point over $25, which is nice to see.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: 27 is the resistance.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: What about Bankingland?
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: Sofi is slightly in the green, but only slightly.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: I think $8 is the resistance there.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: Any other stocks you want me to look at?
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Well, my stocks, if I press the like button, says Jimmy.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Yes, that is absolutely 100% guaranteed.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: There is no way that they would not go up once you've hit that like button, Steve Brilliant.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: John says I feel like you do more webinars than in terms of life trainings.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: I think I did two life training sessions last week, John, so I think I'd disagree with you on that one.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: I was actually going to life trade tonight, but Patrick had one scheduled, although I don't see it right now, which is maybe strange.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: Maybe he pulled it last minute.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: I don't know why, Otherwise I would have done one, but there we are.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: And then we have Bering, the whistleblower, who raised safety concerns and has given evidence.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Just days before he apparently swallowed a knife and jumped off a cliff and then drove over himself, something like that.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: I don't want to make fun of it, but it seems rather weird.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: Apparently it's a self-inflicted wound.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: The BBC had said, and the Charleston County Coroner has confirmed it he was found dead in his truck in the Hotel Car Park.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Not suspicious at all, is it?
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: Sure, it isn't Nothing to see here, but yeah, so Bering's troubles continue.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: Bering BA, and we're down another 1.8% here pre-market.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: So this thing keeps falling, seriously keeps falling.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: So our trade idea is making some nice money.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: If you are part of our newsletter, Trading Floor, Wispus, you would have gotten your pause on that a couple of days back.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: Felixfriendsorg slash sub SUB.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: That's how you get that.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: Is Nvidia up or down?
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: I think it's up.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: Darren, thanks for the disclaimer.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: I appreciate that.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: He shot himself seven times.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: Yes, apparently after he fell out of the truck, drove over himself, climbed back inside, made it look like an accident.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: So, yes, I'm sure there's nothing, nothing untoward going on there at all.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Jonathan thinks it looks like a fake out the market going up.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: Well, I think.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: Ultimately, you know we are near the top off of a market, but the top 10 stocks right now have a PE ratio of 25.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Bubbles typically burst somewhere above 30.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: 33, I think, was the last one, and then I think it was 42 and 1999.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: So, as long as we believe that earnings will continue to improve because of the magic letters A and I, then I think we've got a bit of room to go here.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: And you look at pullbacks and the next day you go back up.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: So it's not, you know, it's not cataclysmic.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: You know, see the zigzagging here that's sort of going on there.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: You look at the VIX, the fear indicator it's at 14.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: Nothing bad happens at 14.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: It just doesn't.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: You need to like bounce out into the 20 plus, and that's where life gets interesting 25, 30.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: And then it gets really, really interesting.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: So, right here, right now, yeah, it's, it's, it's.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: It's increasing at a very gentle slope.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: It's a bit like a, like a jog up a slightly increasing road, which is very tiring, but it's not getting to a point of damn.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: The world's about to implode.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: And let me show you, in the summer of 2022, see, we were in the 30s.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: That's where life gets interesting.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: Up down here, Not a lot happens.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: And if you, like I can overlay, say, say QQQ to this and invert QQQ, just just for giggles.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: And no, actually that's not the, but I think inverting is always a bit confusing, isn't it?
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: But basically, high VIX, low QQQ, you get the idea right.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: And right now, low VIX, high NASDAQ.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: So as long as we stay down here in this sort of la-la land of oh, nobody has to buy insurance for their portfolio, surely nothing will go down.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: If you're not heard about artificial intelligence, as long as people believe that everything goes all right.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: Although, honestly, hedging at this level it's so freaking cheap, it's probably a good idea.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: The data's wasn't expected.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: Why is the stock market up?
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: Because it's not that much worse than expected and, in fairness, we were expecting worse data.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: So the expect we were expecting data to be worse than expected.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: Does that make any sense?
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: Basically, the official expectations and I know I'm starting to sound a little ridiculous here, but the official consensus forecast is cooked up by a bunch of moronic old economists who happen to work for investment banks.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: They're in some dusty old office down some corridor.
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: Nobody really knows where that is and nobody fires them, because it's sort of fun to have them on CNBC and be wrong.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: That's probably the entertainment value of those guys.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: And then you get the real market, the real traders, who kind of think they're probably a little off, and we kind of thought they'd be a little off.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: So it's a little higher, but not that much higher.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: But yeah, here the inflation poses a headache for the Fed and the White House.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: Now I suspect that, miraculously, inflation will start to fall in the summer, just as electioneering really kicks off.
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: Interest rates will get cut and then we can claim responsibility for a soft landing, beating inflation and interest rates coming down.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: And everybody's got a job, including everybody who came from Guatemala.
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: Nothing against Guatemala, but you get the idea.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: So I think that's really what's happening here.
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: So I think they're stalling, they're buying a bit of time.