Latest / Toadstool Sports / Saturday BEST BETS | Gotta Run | MLB & WNBA | 8/8/26

Transcript

Saturday BEST BETS | Gotta Run | MLB & WNBA | 8/8/26 · Toadstool Sports

0:17
Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm.
0:20
Speaker 2: Man, a hole in your chips, the black coffee.
0:22
Speaker 3: On the felt.
0:23
Speaker 1: Man, you look like a mess.
0:26
Speaker 3: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
0:30
Speaker 1: Now you stare at the chips like.
0:32
Speaker 2: They made you this man.
0:34
Speaker 3: But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the floor.
0:38
Speaker 3: Your name steal mean something in somebody for show. Put
0:42
Speaker 3: the glass down, baby, look at me.
0:47
Speaker 4: No, hold on, hold on, nothing nice now, hold on,
1:01
Speaker 4: hold on, let me but it don't get the crown.
1:15
Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on.
1:18
Speaker 1: And stay with me. Now, what's up? Everybody sewed back
1:37
Speaker 1: with you with Toad still sports. I don't know why.
1:39
Speaker 1: I don't know how I was muted, because I believe
1:42
Speaker 1: that after the intro usually automatically unmutes. But that's great whatever.
1:47
Speaker 1: Three and all on the show yesterday. Two of them
1:49
Speaker 1: were legit. The other one was not. Garrett, I'm not
1:54
Speaker 1: gonna say I was right about that one. I was
1:56
Speaker 1: correct about the other two for sure. The Mets. Mets
1:59
Speaker 1: almost blew it. The bullpen held enough to win, but
2:03
Speaker 1: I think they were winning that game six to one
2:05
Speaker 1: earlier or something like that. So I was like, all right,
2:07
Speaker 1: we're gonna win this one bullpen, I don't know, kind
2:10
Speaker 1: of tried to blow it, but they still won six
2:12
Speaker 1: to four, so I'll take that. And then Cleveland won
2:15
Speaker 1: as well. That one was easy. That was a weird
2:18
Speaker 1: game where Noah Schultz was having some major issues in
2:22
Speaker 1: the first inning. Cleveland was already up to nothing in
2:24
Speaker 1: the first inning, and then because the White Sox made
2:29
Speaker 1: an extra mound visit by rule, they had to take
2:32
Speaker 1: Schultz out of the game, so he didn't even finish
2:35
Speaker 1: the first inning, but it counted for us because he
2:38
Speaker 1: started the game. So I'm pretty sure I'll make sure
2:42
Speaker 1: a lot of times I have to go back and
2:43
Speaker 1: look at make sure that every game actually counted and
2:46
Speaker 1: that the starters actually started. I'm pretty sure they all did.
2:49
Speaker 1: But yeah, that was weird. And then you wound up
2:51
Speaker 1: with a White Sox bullpen game for the rest of
2:53
Speaker 1: the game in a spot where they already used all
2:56
Speaker 1: their bullpen in the thirteen inning game against the Red Sox,
2:59
Speaker 1: so I was like, I'm fine with that. Although the
3:02
Speaker 1: game was a little bit dicey for a little while.
3:05
Speaker 1: It was Cleveland didn't score again after that in the
3:08
Speaker 1: first inning, even though I think they had runners on
3:10
Speaker 1: the corners with one out when that happened to Schultz,
3:14
Speaker 1: and then they didn't score again in that inning. Cleveland,
3:16
Speaker 1: this Cleveland offense, man, Yeah, don't really want to rely
3:21
Speaker 1: on it, but they were able to pad the lead.
3:23
Speaker 1: Later after the lead dropped to a two to one lead,
3:26
Speaker 1: then they were able to push that lead, and I
3:27
Speaker 1: think they wound up winning the game pretty easily, like
3:29
Speaker 1: eight to two. Then, of course, the one that I
3:32
Speaker 1: got lucky on was the Yankees. Obviously, My part of
3:36
Speaker 1: the handicapped that did not go correctly in that game
3:39
Speaker 1: was that this Yankees offense, maybe they were actually not good,
3:43
Speaker 1: Like I don't know what else to say that if
3:45
Speaker 1: you can't even hit Tyler Molly when he's pitching on
3:48
Speaker 1: the road, I mean, I don't know what else there
3:51
Speaker 1: is to say. Like Free did his part. Yankees offense
3:55
Speaker 1: did absolutely nothing in the game, and they were losing
3:57
Speaker 1: two to nothing in the ninth inning they should have lost.
3:59
Speaker 1: So I got lucky with that when the Yankees tied
4:02
Speaker 1: it in the ninth and then they won the game
4:04
Speaker 1: in the tenth inning. Yeah, that shouldn't have been a win.
4:08
Speaker 1: I thought that it was a good play on the Yankees,
4:11
Speaker 1: like as far as how that game's set up, I
4:15
Speaker 1: wasn't really right. Sometimes you gotta get lucky. Uh yeah, again.
4:18
Speaker 1: The one thing that I wasn't right about is the
4:20
Speaker 1: Yankees were not able to score against Molly, and I
4:24
Speaker 1: thought that was something that was definitely going to happen
4:26
Speaker 1: in that game. Whatever, man, dirty sock, what's up? Thanks
4:31
Speaker 1: for hanging out. I mean again, it should have been
4:34
Speaker 1: a two in one day, which is fine, like it's
4:37
Speaker 1: a winning day. But you gotta you gotta look at
4:40
Speaker 1: what happened in the games that you play and determine
4:44
Speaker 1: like was this a bullshit winner? Was this a bullshit loser?
4:47
Speaker 1: Was this legitimate? So you can try to adapt what
4:50
Speaker 1: you do, although I'm so stubborn that I'm just gonna
4:52
Speaker 1: keep doing the same thing that I do. Anyway, I
4:54
Speaker 1: just I saw nothing wrong with that handicap. I think
4:57
Speaker 1: it's just shocking that the Yankees couldn't score at all
5:00
Speaker 1: against Molly, who is not good. All right, let's go, uh,
5:06
Speaker 1: let's jump into these games. Here. We have a couple
5:07
Speaker 1: of afternoon games. I am gonna go to play in
5:10
Speaker 1: Yankees braves again. Here it's probably too obvious, but it's
5:13
Speaker 1: the first game up at three oh five pm Eastern,
5:17
Speaker 1: oh Man. When it feels like it's too obvious, I worry,
5:23
Speaker 1: but we're gonna take this game under the seven and
5:25
Speaker 1: a half. You get the you get that hook on
5:29
Speaker 1: the seven there. It's key number in baseball, the seven,
5:32
Speaker 1: because you have to break a three to three tie
5:34
Speaker 1: if there is a three three tie. This looks like
5:37
Speaker 1: a really good starting pitching matchup just on its surface.
5:40
Speaker 1: Although I don't just bet based on the surface, like
5:43
Speaker 1: I gotta go in and actually look at the numbers here,
5:46
Speaker 1: but the numbers do support this. I think the bullpens
5:49
Speaker 1: should be okay here. We have two good bullpens here.
5:53
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the a's that's not what I want.
5:55
Speaker 1: The Braves did use five guys out of the bullpen
5:58
Speaker 1: yesterday because the game went into extra inning, but they've
6:01
Speaker 1: been kind of staggering their usage, so I'm not too
6:04
Speaker 1: worried about that. Yankees bullpens should be good to go.
6:07
Speaker 1: They had the day off the day before yesterday. They
6:10
Speaker 1: did have to use some of their better relievers yesterday,
6:12
Speaker 1: but they might be able to use some of them
6:14
Speaker 1: again here. I think I'm still okay with rolling with
6:17
Speaker 1: the bullpens in this one, and obviously I'm okay with
6:20
Speaker 1: the starting pitching here, and hopefully the starting pitching will
6:22
Speaker 1: get us deep into this game and kind of save
6:25
Speaker 1: the bullpens a little bit. Chris Sale was pitching for
6:28
Speaker 1: the Braves. He was initially gonna pitch yesterday, and they
6:30
Speaker 1: keep pushing his start back, like, I don't know if
6:33
Speaker 1: it's to kind of save him for the playoffs at
6:36
Speaker 1: this point, like let's not have the old man pitch
6:39
Speaker 1: that off and now. Although starting pitchers like to stay
6:42
Speaker 1: on schedule. Man, though, I don't think it's gonna be
6:44
Speaker 1: a concern with him because he's a veteran, so I
6:46
Speaker 1: don't think pushing him back a few days really matters.
6:49
Speaker 1: He's been really good on the season, obviously, two point
6:52
Speaker 1: eighty RA one point oh two whip. He's not much
6:55
Speaker 1: worse on the road. Two point five Roady ra had
6:58
Speaker 1: a six inning shutout last time he pitched against the Mets,
7:01
Speaker 1: although I know the Mets stink offensively, but he's had
7:04
Speaker 1: three shutouts in his last fourth four outings of though
7:07
Speaker 1: one of them was I think Raine shortened against Saint
7:10
Speaker 1: Louis or whatever the hell happened in that game, but
7:12
Speaker 1: two of his last three games have been legitimate shoutouts.
7:15
Speaker 1: He's faced some bad offenses in here tholthough we know
7:18
Speaker 1: how the Yankees offense has been playing recently, not well,
7:22
Speaker 1: and Sale has been good against this Yankees lineup in
7:25
Speaker 1: the past. They have twenty nine at bats against him,
7:27
Speaker 1: thirteen strikeouts, three walks, one thirty eight average and three
7:31
Speaker 1: ninety one ohps. So I think Sale is going to
7:34
Speaker 1: pitch well here as stupid windows keeps maximizing this fucking
7:38
Speaker 1: window on me, which I hate. And we're also gonna
7:41
Speaker 1: back Garrett Cole on the other side of this. I mean,
7:43
Speaker 1: he looks like he's pitching pretty well again as well.
7:46
Speaker 1: Three point four to two ARA, one point one whips.
7:49
Speaker 1: It's the battle of the veterans here man in this one.
7:52
Speaker 1: Cole has been pretty good at home three point three
7:54
Speaker 1: to one Homie are one eighty six upon a batting average,
7:58
Speaker 1: so he's been better at home. He struggled a little
8:00
Speaker 1: bit with his command in his last start against the Cubs.
8:03
Speaker 1: He was still able to escape that with only along
8:06
Speaker 1: one run and getting the win. But he was pitching
8:08
Speaker 1: pretty well up through like the entire month of July.
8:12
Speaker 1: He pitched well and he faced some good offenses in July,
8:15
Speaker 1: so I think he's pitching well. I'm not worried too
8:18
Speaker 1: much about having one game or his command was a
8:20
Speaker 1: little bit off. I think he's going to continue to
8:22
Speaker 1: pitch well. Here. He's got a low hit rate on
8:24
Speaker 1: the season, low walk rate, strikeout rates is pretty high
8:27
Speaker 1: as well. I don't even think I have to mention
8:28
Speaker 1: it for sale, but I'm pretty sure I always do
8:31
Speaker 1: just for posterity or whatever. But yeah, I'm pretty sure.
8:34
Speaker 1: Sales numbers are also really good across the board. Yeah,
8:37
Speaker 1: low hit rate doesn't really walk anybody strikes out a
8:40
Speaker 1: ton of guys still, so both pitchers look good with
8:43
Speaker 1: their numbers across the board here. Cole against the Braves
8:46
Speaker 1: has been really good. Actually, in fifty two career at bats,
8:49
Speaker 1: twenty eight to seven strike out walk ratio one fifteen
8:52
Speaker 1: average allowed four fifty one ohps. So you're looking at
8:55
Speaker 1: two starting pitchers who have both held these offenses. They're
9:00
Speaker 1: facing here to blow a two hundred batting average and
9:04
Speaker 1: below a five hundred ohps. So that's pretty good. Yeah,
9:08
Speaker 1: let's take the under here. Not overthink this one, but
9:12
Speaker 1: the numbers seem to support it from me, And yeah,
9:14
Speaker 1: like I said, the bullpens are good bullpens in general.
9:18
Speaker 1: The Yankees are right fourth, although they have the second
9:20
Speaker 1: best bullpenning ra Atlanta's third, which I think is legitimately
9:24
Speaker 1: where they are right now, the third best BOWLPN. Yankees
9:27
Speaker 1: offense has been struggling. Like I said, they're fourteenth right now,
9:30
Speaker 1: tied with the Giants. Braves have been better and they
9:33
Speaker 1: are pretty good on the road. They're seventh, But I
9:35
Speaker 1: think the pitching is gonna counter the hitting in this one.
9:38
Speaker 1: It's also one of those matchups where people have a
9:41
Speaker 1: tendency to think, oh, Braves the Yankees, Like these are
9:43
Speaker 1: both good teams, teams that have good histories, like they're good,
9:47
Speaker 1: they should be able to hit. But you're looking at
9:50
Speaker 1: offenses that maybe not might not be at their best here,
9:54
Speaker 1: and they're facing really good pitching here. So you know,
9:57
Speaker 1: I lean towards the pitching and scenarios like let's do
10:00
Speaker 1: it under we have the money. Seems to not agree
10:04
Speaker 1: with me on it though, sixty nine percent of the
10:06
Speaker 1: tickets and sixty three percent of the cash on the under.
10:09
Speaker 1: But the way that I handicapped this thing, it looks
10:12
Speaker 1: like a go to me, so let's do it under
10:15
Speaker 1: seven and a half Braves Yankees. And I know yesterday's
10:18
Speaker 1: game went under, but it was lower scoring than it
10:21
Speaker 1: looked like on the scoreboard. I mean, that was a
10:22
Speaker 1: two run game going into the final uh bottom of
10:28
Speaker 1: the final half of an inning, you know what I mean.
10:30
Speaker 1: It was a two up thing Atlanta lead into the
10:32
Speaker 1: bottom of the knives, so three runs scored after that point.
10:35
Speaker 1: So that game was actually lower scoring than it even
10:38
Speaker 1: looked like it was. So I don't know, that doesn't
10:40
Speaker 1: concern me too much anyway, all right. Anaheim at Miami.
10:45
Speaker 1: Miami definitely struggling here. They've lost four games in a row.
10:48
Speaker 1: They're below five hundred now. I think they're not going
10:51
Speaker 1: to make the playoffs at this point, but they did
10:53
Speaker 1: return home from a road trip yesterday, so that was
10:55
Speaker 1: kind of a difficult spot. They might be in a
10:58
Speaker 1: better spot here, because I talk about when teams don't
11:00
Speaker 1: do well in the return home spot, a lot of
11:02
Speaker 1: times they bounce back and they do better in the
11:04
Speaker 1: next game. And Anaheim at this point is really just
11:06
Speaker 1: playing out the stretch. They don't really have a whole
11:09
Speaker 1: lot to play for here. Miami technically is still fighting
11:12
Speaker 1: for a wild card spot, and they didn't sell at
11:15
Speaker 1: the trade deadline. Really, I don't think looks like a
11:18
Speaker 1: decent starting pitching matchup here, So I was thinking possibly
11:20
Speaker 1: an under might make sense here when I started digging
11:23
Speaker 1: into it. The matchup numbers don't necessarily support that. As
11:29
Speaker 1: far as the bullpens are concerned. I lost my bullpen window.
11:32
Speaker 1: What are we doing here? No, that's not what I want?
11:34
Speaker 1: Oh my god, what are we doing here? Man? I
11:37
Speaker 1: lost my bullpen tab? Of course, I'm all out of
11:40
Speaker 1: it this morning. Where is it all right? Separate windows
11:44
Speaker 1: going on here? Anyway? There, it is all right. Let
11:47
Speaker 1: me see, Miami used four guys out of the bullpen yesterday.
11:52
Speaker 1: I forget who we're even talking about here, Miami and
11:55
Speaker 1: who I don't even remember La, Yeah, I mean Anaheim.
11:58
Speaker 1: Oh my god, I'm all disc combobulated here. Anaheim used
12:02
Speaker 1: five relieved pictures. Miami clearly has the better bullpen, though
12:05
Speaker 1: I don't think they're as good as ranked where they're
12:07
Speaker 1: ranked here fifth based on WHIP, but they're obviously better
12:11
Speaker 1: than Anaheim's bullpen by quite a bit. Anaheim is twenty first.
12:14
Speaker 1: They're not good hitting wise. Miami's been the better team
12:17
Speaker 1: as well, although they've fallen off a little bit. They're
12:19
Speaker 1: eleventh right now, but Anaheim not very good over the
12:22
Speaker 1: course of the season at twenty fifth now. One thing
12:25
Speaker 1: that might support an under here is that Miami does
12:28
Speaker 1: play low scoring games at home. Typically it's more of
12:30
Speaker 1: a pitcher friendly ballpark. Walbert Urina is getting the start
12:34
Speaker 1: for the Angels, and I have sung his praise on
12:37
Speaker 1: the show here. I think he's a good pitcher. I
12:39
Speaker 1: think he's talented. We backed him multiple times this year.
12:42
Speaker 1: I think we won pretty recently backing him. He's got
12:45
Speaker 1: a two point five to four e rays whip one
12:47
Speaker 1: point two five. He needs to fix his walk issues, man,
12:51
Speaker 1: That's the one problem with him is he walks too
12:53
Speaker 1: many guys. He's a little bit worse on the road
12:55
Speaker 1: as well, two point six y' one roadier Ray, but
12:58
Speaker 1: that's still obviously not bad. He's been pretty much lights
13:02
Speaker 1: out for the last month plus. At this point, he's
13:05
Speaker 1: allowed one or zero earned runs in every start since
13:08
Speaker 1: the beginning of July across five starts. Yeah, that's pretty good,
13:12
Speaker 1: but his walk rate has been kind of bad. So
13:15
Speaker 1: he's getting away with issuing way too many free passes here.
13:19
Speaker 1: But he is also striking out a decent amount of
13:21
Speaker 1: guys and he's not allowing hits, so that's how he's
13:24
Speaker 1: doing this. He's allowing very few hits. He's hard to hit.
13:27
Speaker 1: He's a decent strikeout pitcher. He gets a lot of
13:30
Speaker 1: ground ball outs too. Although the ground balls can kind
13:33
Speaker 1: of mask the fact that you're jamming the bases with
13:36
Speaker 1: based runners because you get a lot of double plays
13:38
Speaker 1: and stuff like that when you're inducing a lot of
13:40
Speaker 1: ground balls, and that can help you well. But if
13:42
Speaker 1: you consistently do that, I mean, that is also a
13:45
Speaker 1: decent thing. But yeah, obviously his walk rate is way
13:48
Speaker 1: too high, and that's the one real concern with him.
13:51
Speaker 1: It makes his strikeout walk race you look awful. He's
13:54
Speaker 1: got to stop walking guys. But I think he might
13:57
Speaker 1: pitch well here. He's generally been good and Miami has
14:00
Speaker 1: never seen him before, so I think that's an advantage.
14:03
Speaker 1: When he got a young talented pitcher going in. The
14:05
Speaker 1: opposing offense hasn't seen him before. That gives them a
14:08
Speaker 1: little bit of an extra edge over those hitters because
14:10
Speaker 1: they have to figure him out. One guy that does
14:12
Speaker 1: not really need to be figured out is Sandy Al contrast,
14:15
Speaker 1: So we have the veteran going for Miami here. He's
14:17
Speaker 1: had a good season. Man, he's kind of figured out
14:21
Speaker 1: how to pitch again after dealing with all the injury
14:24
Speaker 1: stuff that he's dealt with and whatever. Doesn't have his
14:27
Speaker 1: velocity anymore, but he's got a three point six't eighty
14:29
Speaker 1: arra one point two whip that's not bad. He's been
14:32
Speaker 1: good at home two point nine to five home. He
14:35
Speaker 1: array with a much lower opponent batting average allowed at home.
14:38
Speaker 1: He's only had one bad start really since the beginning
14:40
Speaker 1: of July, which was at Houston. He allowed five runs there,
14:44
Speaker 1: but he's allowed three or fewer in all of his
14:45
Speaker 1: other starts since then, one or a fewer and all
14:48
Speaker 1: but one other start there. So yeah, he's pitching well
14:51
Speaker 1: right now. For sure. He's got a reasonably low hit
14:54
Speaker 1: rate here. Is walk rate is okay, given that he's
14:58
Speaker 1: he's thrown a lot of innings here. The strike got
15:00
Speaker 1: raded is low, but you know, it's it is what
15:04
Speaker 1: he is at this point. He doesn't strike that many
15:06
Speaker 1: guys out anymore. The real concern with him, though, is
15:08
Speaker 1: these Anaheim bats have actually done well against him in
15:11
Speaker 1: fifty nine at bats three fifty six average one than
15:15
Speaker 1: ninety four ohps. And again, maybe I weigh the matchups
15:18
Speaker 1: too big, but I try to, like or too heavily,
15:21
Speaker 1: but I try to like weigh everything here. Nine to
15:24
Speaker 1: six strike out walk ratio here is also not good.
15:27
Speaker 1: I don't know if I trust all contra in the
15:29
Speaker 1: spot man. So I actually think the way that I
15:31
Speaker 1: might lean in this game is maybe I'm weighing the
15:34
Speaker 1: matchups too heavily, But I think Anaheim first five might
15:38
Speaker 1: make some sense here. You're gonna get them as a
15:40
Speaker 1: pretty big underdog. The money has already kind of driven
15:44
Speaker 1: the money line down. Miami open at minus one seventy
15:47
Speaker 1: three another like minus one fifty something, so some money
15:49
Speaker 1: did come in against Miami, I think to drive that
15:52
Speaker 1: number down. Miami's public eighty six percent of the tickets
15:56
Speaker 1: ninety one percent of the cash though, but I don't
15:58
Speaker 1: think that's a huge cash just like that. To me,
16:01
Speaker 1: the way that I read that is it looks like
16:03
Speaker 1: Miami's pretty public to mame, so I wouldn't really want
16:06
Speaker 1: to try to back them, even though it might be
16:08
Speaker 1: a bounced backspot for them. Miami does have the better bullpen,
16:12
Speaker 1: but that's why I said I think Anaheim first five,
16:14
Speaker 1: just looking at that starting pitching matchup might make sense,
16:17
Speaker 1: and it looks to me maybe a low scoring game.
16:20
Speaker 1: Because the oddsmakers have put the total out at seven
16:22
Speaker 1: and a half, money is coming in in the under.
16:24
Speaker 1: I wouldn't disagree with an under in this game, although
16:27
Speaker 1: I worry about Anaheim's bullpen. Obviously, that's the one main concern.
16:32
Speaker 1: If you want to try to go under, you could
16:33
Speaker 1: go under first five, but you know how I hate
16:35
Speaker 1: that in these seven and a half total games you
16:38
Speaker 1: have to go under like three and a half in
16:40
Speaker 1: the first five gets You're on like the razor's edge
16:44
Speaker 1: when you do that, and sometimes I like to be dangerous,
16:46
Speaker 1: but I'm not doing that recently, so I don't know.
16:50
Speaker 1: But yeah, I think Anaheim in the first five might
16:52
Speaker 1: make some sense. Given what the price is, you get
16:54
Speaker 1: a pretty big underdog price, and I think their pitcher
16:58
Speaker 1: could definitely compete in the first five there so usually
17:01
Speaker 1: that indication you should be looking towards the underdog, and
17:04
Speaker 1: like I always say, if it's a low total, the
17:06
Speaker 1: underdog has a better chance to kind of hang around
17:09
Speaker 1: in that game. All right, Charles, what's up? Thanks for
17:13
Speaker 1: hanging out. Next game, A's and Red Sox. What else
17:20
Speaker 1: can we say about the Red Sox, man, I mean,
17:22
Speaker 1: coming off that marathon of a game, the thirteen inning
17:25
Speaker 1: game against the White Sox, they had like the perfect
17:28
Speaker 1: game that you could have. After that, they destroy the
17:31
Speaker 1: A's yesterday, they got a ton of runs. Perkins wasn't
17:34
Speaker 1: really good enough in the game yesterday. And what the
17:36
Speaker 1: Red Sox did yesterday is they saved all the rest
17:40
Speaker 1: of their bullpen. Literally every relief pitcher that pitched in
17:43
Speaker 1: the game against the White Sox, which was their entire bullpen,
17:47
Speaker 1: none of them pitched yesterday for the Red Sox. So
17:49
Speaker 1: what the Red Sox did is they sent Weissert down
17:52
Speaker 1: to the miners. They called up this guy Burgos, who's
17:54
Speaker 1: not even really that good, I don't think, but he
17:58
Speaker 1: was the only relief pitcher they used yesterday. Peyton totally
18:01
Speaker 1: was ridiculous in the game yesterday, and he was on
18:03
Speaker 1: a record setting strikeout pace in the game yesterday. He
18:06
Speaker 1: totally had fourteen strikeouts and six innings and he only
18:10
Speaker 1: threw eighty something pitches, which is like unheard of when
18:12
Speaker 1: you're striking out that many guys. I think he only
18:15
Speaker 1: allowed like one hit or maybe two hits, although he
18:17
Speaker 1: did allow home run. But I think he had a
18:19
Speaker 1: perfect game into the fifth inning as well. But his
18:23
Speaker 1: strikeout rate. Usually, when you have a strike up rate
18:25
Speaker 1: that high, you're throwing a lot of pitches to do that,
18:27
Speaker 1: and he was not. Like eighty something pitches with fourteen
18:31
Speaker 1: strikeouts is something that you rarely see, if ever, so
18:35
Speaker 1: I was thinking they should leave him in. But I mean,
18:38
Speaker 1: it makes sense they don't want to overwork their young pitcher.
18:41
Speaker 1: But man, he was good in that game, and I
18:43
Speaker 1: wanted to see the record. Man, I was like, there's
18:46
Speaker 1: a chance he could get twenty strikeouts in this game.
18:49
Speaker 1: You never see that anymore in Major League Baseball. Leave
18:52
Speaker 1: him in, you know, for at least another inning and
18:55
Speaker 1: see where this goes. But they didn't do it. They
18:57
Speaker 1: used Burgos for the final three innings and he didn't
19:00
Speaker 1: allow anything. So even though I don't even think he's good,
19:03
Speaker 1: the Red Sox saved the rest of their bullpen, so
19:07
Speaker 1: that was exactly what the Red Sox needed. After that,
19:10
Speaker 1: they didn't use any of the rest of their relief pitchers,
19:12
Speaker 1: so their bullpen is now somewhat rested again after that,
19:16
Speaker 1: so that was very good for them. And their bullpen
19:19
Speaker 1: is the better bullpen, and the A's used four guys
19:21
Speaker 1: out of their bullpen yesterday, so the Red Sox are
19:24
Speaker 1: going to have a bullpen edge here. They have the
19:26
Speaker 1: better hitting as well, but the Red Sox have the
19:28
Speaker 1: number one bullpen. A's debatably are the worst bullpen. I mean,
19:32
Speaker 1: their era is disgusting. Five point seven. That is so bad.
19:37
Speaker 1: This is I think they're the worst bullpen a's. They're
19:40
Speaker 1: one of the worst teams in general. And the Red
19:42
Speaker 1: Sox have moved all the way up to thirteenth offensively now,
19:45
Speaker 1: which is insane, especially given that they still have some injuries.
19:49
Speaker 1: Wilson Contreras still didn't play yesterday. He's six, so he
19:53
Speaker 1: wasn't even in the game yesterday. And it's like the
19:55
Speaker 1: Red Sox have all these hitters that aren't even that
19:57
Speaker 1: good and they're all just getting hits like, oh yeah,
20:00
Speaker 1: Ake Rogers that we just got as a throw in
20:02
Speaker 1: in the Rutchman deal. In Rutchman's hurt right now. By
20:05
Speaker 1: the way, Rutchman is playing in Triple A today. I
20:09
Speaker 1: think so Rutchman is a back probably soon. But yeah,
20:13
Speaker 1: Jake Rogers the throw in there, he's like, he shows up,
20:16
Speaker 1: But what did he have three hits? Yesterday? He had
20:18
Speaker 1: two doubles. I think he scored three runs. Again whatever,
20:21
Speaker 1: the guy that they have as a backup catcher right now,
20:25
Speaker 1: that was a throw in in a deal and he's
20:27
Speaker 1: batting ninth in the order. Oh yeah, let's just have
20:30
Speaker 1: this guy contributing all over the place offensively. Why not?
20:35
Speaker 1: It was so it's so ridiculous, man, oh man, it
20:39
Speaker 1: makes me laugh. And also the the tarps off phenomenon
20:44
Speaker 1: is in full swing at Fenway Park. The dudes are
20:48
Speaker 1: all taking their shirts off, and it was even more
20:51
Speaker 1: insane last night. One of the commed I think it
20:53
Speaker 1: was Dave O'Brien, one of the nesson commentators to the
20:56
Speaker 1: Red Sox. It's Dave O'Brien and Lumerloney now former player mloney. Uh,
21:01
Speaker 1: they're the commentary team. They're never gonna beat Orsilo and
21:04
Speaker 1: Remy though nobody could ever beat that duo. I miss
21:07
Speaker 1: Orsilo as well. He's with the San Diego Padres commentary
21:12
Speaker 1: crew there. But I think it was O'Brien last night
21:15
Speaker 1: was talking about the tarps off and he's like, I
21:17
Speaker 1: think this is like the most extensive tarps off movement
21:21
Speaker 1: that we've seen so far, And fedden Waight's like, every
21:24
Speaker 1: third dude in the stadium has his shirt off right now.
21:27
Speaker 1: I was like, yeah, man, like, yeah, this is the
21:30
Speaker 1: way to go. I got I gotta get my ass
21:32
Speaker 1: out to some Red Sox games man and join in.
21:36
Speaker 1: It would not be the first instance of me being
21:39
Speaker 1: shirtless in Fenway Park. I'll let's just put it that way. Yeah,
21:43
Speaker 1: I'm dangerous. Move the mound back from No, why would
21:48
Speaker 1: they do that? Has the mound's been the same distance
21:51
Speaker 1: for what like a century? No? Why no? Stop stop
21:56
Speaker 1: fucking changing baseball. Every change is bad. Like the ghost
22:01
Speaker 1: Runner is terrible. I hate the pitch clock too, but
22:03
Speaker 1: the ghost Runner is the worst thing. Get rid of
22:06
Speaker 1: the ghost Runner. At least get rid of that bullshit.
22:09
Speaker 1: I mean, come on, man, I think that thirteen inning
22:11
Speaker 1: game the other day was the first game to go
22:14
Speaker 1: that long since the ghost Runners are introduced. Probably it
22:17
Speaker 1: just doesn't even happen anymore. Yeah, fuck the ghost Runner,
22:22
Speaker 1: every dude, why would you change something? This has been
22:26
Speaker 1: the American pastime. It's been like the favorite sport in
22:29
Speaker 1: America for over a century. Nothing's wrong with it. And
22:33
Speaker 1: then oh, let's just break it. Let's just fix well,
22:36
Speaker 1: let's fix something it isn't even broken. Fuck you, you know,
22:40
Speaker 1: bring back steroids. That's the other thing it needs to happen,
22:42
Speaker 1: because again, you want people to watch this sport. And
22:46
Speaker 1: now everybody's hitting like two forty, whereas when I grew up,
22:49
Speaker 1: it was like half of every lineup was hitting three hundred.
22:52
Speaker 1: Like there's no offense anymore in this game. It's ridiculous.
22:56
Speaker 1: The New York Yankees are you know, not hitting at all.
22:59
Speaker 1: So uh whatever, anyway, Uh, let me get back to this. Man,
23:04
Speaker 1: I've only talked about two games so far. This is awful.
23:07
Speaker 1: I gotta finish this. I gotta get out of here too.
23:09
Speaker 1: I gotta leave. We got some festivities going on. A's
23:14
Speaker 1: in Red Sox. Yes, that's what I was going to
23:16
Speaker 1: talk about. I was starting to talk about it. Yes,
23:19
Speaker 1: so the Red Sox have a bullpen advantage here. They
23:21
Speaker 1: have a hitting edge at this point as well. The
23:24
Speaker 1: A's are missing like three of their best hitters right
23:26
Speaker 1: now too. They have a lot of injuries in their lineups.
23:28
Speaker 1: This is a weekend A's lineup as well. Gage Jump
23:33
Speaker 1: is getting the start for the A's here. He's not bad.
23:36
Speaker 1: I mean, he's a young, talented pitcher. Four point five
23:38
Speaker 1: ninety array, one point four to seven whip is definitely
23:41
Speaker 1: not very good, but he's been way better on the road.
23:43
Speaker 1: So again, pitching in that a stadium is just awful,
23:47
Speaker 1: and he's been considerably better on the road. And you know,
23:49
Speaker 1: I have backed him multiple times on the road on
23:51
Speaker 1: this show, and we've won backing him, but I have
23:54
Speaker 1: I haven't done it for a while. Two point five
23:56
Speaker 1: to one Roady Array though two eighteen upon a batting
23:58
Speaker 1: average on the road. That's good stuff. And he was
24:01
Speaker 1: the only one to beat the Red Sox in that
24:03
Speaker 1: last series that these two teams played a couple of
24:06
Speaker 1: weeks ago in Sacramento. Jump was the pitcher for the
24:11
Speaker 1: only A's win. He picked up the win in that
24:13
Speaker 1: when he shut out the Red Sox for six innings.
24:16
Speaker 1: Pretty good start from him, except that he walked too
24:18
Speaker 1: many guys and that is really the concern. This walk
24:21
Speaker 1: rate is just out of control, dude. Over his last
24:23
Speaker 1: three starts, he's walked whatever that is? What is that
24:27
Speaker 1: fourteen guys over a span of I think fourteen to
24:32
Speaker 1: a third innings if I did that math right, that
24:34
Speaker 1: is not good. He's walking like one guy an inning
24:37
Speaker 1: over his last three outings, and two of them he
24:39
Speaker 1: didn't even make it five innings three of his last
24:41
Speaker 1: four outings yet the only one he made it past
24:43
Speaker 1: five inning was against the Red Sox. Man. Yeah, the
24:49
Speaker 1: walks are the big concern with him. His hit rate
24:51
Speaker 1: is actually a little bit high as well. His strikeout
24:53
Speaker 1: rate is good. Walk rate is way too high. But
24:57
Speaker 1: he's been good against the Red Sox because it was
24:59
Speaker 1: just that one star. They have fifteen at bats against him,
25:01
Speaker 1: two hundred average, five sixty one ohps, five to two
25:04
Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio. Now, he had the advantage of being
25:07
Speaker 1: unfamiliar to the Red Sox the first time, and now
25:09
Speaker 1: he isn't. So a lot of times a pitcher like that,
25:13
Speaker 1: the first time they see an offense, they do well.
25:15
Speaker 1: But then if that offense knows what they're gonna see
25:17
Speaker 1: the next time and they see him again right away,
25:19
Speaker 1: the offense does better in that next game. So that's
25:22
Speaker 1: gonna be a concern with Jump here. But he might
25:26
Speaker 1: just have a matchup batch. He might do well against
25:28
Speaker 1: the Red Sox here, and he has been good on
25:30
Speaker 1: the road, so I wouldn't really want to necessarily fade
25:32
Speaker 1: him here. Jake Bennett is pitching for the Red Sox.
25:35
Speaker 1: He's been pretty strong. Two point ninety ARRA, one point
25:38
Speaker 1: zero one whip. He's been basically the same home and away,
25:42
Speaker 1: it doesn't really matter. He kind of struggled a little
25:46
Speaker 1: bit in his last start, but it was against the
25:47
Speaker 1: Dodgers and he picked up a win anyway, because the
25:49
Speaker 1: Red Sox swept that series. But he got the win
25:52
Speaker 1: in that one. Definitely got some run support behind him
25:55
Speaker 1: in that one. But he's been pretty good. He started
25:58
Speaker 1: a lot more runs recently, but he's only allowed at
26:01
Speaker 1: most three in any of his starts going all the
26:04
Speaker 1: way back through the beginning of June, he's only allowed
26:06
Speaker 1: more than three on runs once all season. He's got
26:08
Speaker 1: a low hit rate. Well that he hasn't pitched the
26:10
Speaker 1: entire season. He's got a low hit rate, low walk rate.
26:14
Speaker 1: Doesn't strike guys out though, which is the one thing
26:16
Speaker 1: about him is, Yeah, he doesn't really have strikeout stuff,
26:20
Speaker 1: which is kind of weird because He's a big left hander,
26:23
Speaker 1: and usually guys with a frame like that could throw hard,
26:25
Speaker 1: but he doesn't really do that. His numbers against the
26:28
Speaker 1: A's are not really that good though, in eighteen at
26:30
Speaker 1: bats three point thirty three average allowed nine hundred oh
26:33
Speaker 1: ps three to two strikeout walk ratio. So he actually
26:36
Speaker 1: pitched in that game against Jump, so it's the same
26:39
Speaker 1: pitching matchup, and Bennett wasn't horrible on that start, but
26:43
Speaker 1: he got out pitched by Jump by a little bit
26:45
Speaker 1: in that one of those I mean, well, I guess
26:47
Speaker 1: maybe you could argue that Jump was slightly worse because
26:51
Speaker 1: Jump's walk rate was really high in that one. He
26:53
Speaker 1: maybe he got a little bit lucky, So I don't know,
26:55
Speaker 1: you could actually debate which starter was actually better in
26:58
Speaker 1: that one of the numbers. Looking at these opposing offens
27:01
Speaker 1: this year, the numbers kind of bear out the Bennett
27:03
Speaker 1: was actually worse. But maybe he'll do better this time,
27:07
Speaker 1: although maybe it's not a good sign that the A's
27:09
Speaker 1: were not even familiar with him and they were able
27:11
Speaker 1: to hit him well anyway, we'll see. But this A's
27:14
Speaker 1: lineup right now, there's like nobody in it, Like their
27:16
Speaker 1: best hitter is Soderstrom, who was the one that hit
27:18
Speaker 1: the home run off of totally yesterday, and it almost
27:23
Speaker 1: it looked like it was going to be a flyout
27:25
Speaker 1: to deep righte and it just kind of carried a
27:27
Speaker 1: little bit over the wall. There's just kind of ridic
27:30
Speaker 1: It looked like a bray who was going to be
27:31
Speaker 1: able to catch that at first. But whatever, it's a
27:34
Speaker 1: weekend A's lineup here. I'm going into too much detail
27:37
Speaker 1: with this game. Got to speed this process up here. Man,
27:42
Speaker 1: what do I have to say about this game? Well,
27:43
Speaker 1: I think first five under might be the way to
27:46
Speaker 1: look at this. I wouldn't want to back the A's bullpen, ever,
27:49
Speaker 1: but seventy six percent of tickets is sixty four percent
27:51
Speaker 1: of the cash on the over. The totals at nine
27:54
Speaker 1: and it did drop a little bit from nine and
27:55
Speaker 1: a half. That seems like a pretty high total given
27:58
Speaker 1: what this pitching matchup is. Maybe Jump not getting much respect.
28:02
Speaker 1: I mean he does walk way too many guys, that's
28:04
Speaker 1: for sure. I would have my concerns about him because
28:07
Speaker 1: of that. But yeah, I think if you're gonna play
28:11
Speaker 1: this game at all, I think first five under makes
28:13
Speaker 1: the most sense, and the red Sox to me seem
28:15
Speaker 1: like they're unplayable at minus two sixty or whatever, although
28:18
Speaker 1: that was about what the price was last night too.
28:21
Speaker 1: The A's get no respect in the market. They're considered
28:23
Speaker 1: to be one of the worst teams, and the Red
28:25
Speaker 1: Sox are, all of a sudden considered to be one
28:27
Speaker 1: of the best teams. Public is on the Red Sox
28:30
Speaker 1: ninety five percent of the tickets, only eighty five percent
28:32
Speaker 1: of the cash, though, and that's all about the price. Like,
28:36
Speaker 1: the betters that are taking the A's aren't necessarily saying
28:38
Speaker 1: they think the A's are gonna win, but they're saying
28:41
Speaker 1: that they think there's value in making that play, and
28:44
Speaker 1: maybe there is. I mean that's why I said. I
28:47
Speaker 1: guess you could maybe make the argument for the A's
28:50
Speaker 1: in the first five as well. I like the under
28:52
Speaker 1: a little bit better in the first five, but A's
28:54
Speaker 1: in the first five. I think it's kind of correlated
28:56
Speaker 1: with that. It makes some sense as well, because Jump
28:59
Speaker 1: did out Bennet the last time, so he does have
29:01
Speaker 1: the better matchup numbers, or debatably at least he how
29:05
Speaker 1: pitched him, but he has the better matchup numbers, Like
29:08
Speaker 1: I said, so maybe the A's will hang around early
29:11
Speaker 1: in the game. Garrett, what's up? Yes, I go watch
29:15
Speaker 1: the beginning of my show. I got lucky on that one.
29:17
Speaker 1: There's no doubt about that. I was. The thing that
29:21
Speaker 1: I was incorrect about was that the Yankees could not
29:24
Speaker 1: hit at all against a terrible pitcher. Like, I think,
29:27
Speaker 1: what's going on here is this Yankees offense has some
29:30
Speaker 1: major problems right now. I think that's really what's going
29:32
Speaker 1: on here. Yeah, I got that part of the game
29:35
Speaker 1: wrong for sure. I got lucky in that one, There's
29:38
Speaker 1: no doubt about that. The other two plays that I
29:41
Speaker 1: gave out were actual winners all right, Toronto and Philadelphia.
29:45
Speaker 1: Philadelphia lost yesterday with Zach Wheeler on the mount, which
29:48
Speaker 1: is not something I think it was Wheeler right, not
29:50
Speaker 1: something you usually see, especially against a Blue Jays offense
29:53
Speaker 1: that's been one of the worst in baseball, and the
29:56
Speaker 1: Blue Jays are just kind of playing out the stretch. Now,
29:58
Speaker 1: where's Philadelphia something to play for? But I do think
30:01
Speaker 1: Philadelphia is overrated, as I've been saying. Their run differential
30:05
Speaker 1: is not very good, but they do have some elite
30:07
Speaker 1: pitchers at the top of their rotation. They don't have
30:10
Speaker 1: any of the pitching today, though Phillies bullpen does have
30:13
Speaker 1: some issues. They used three guys yesterday. Toronto's bullpen used
30:17
Speaker 1: more than that because they had to save the game.
30:20
Speaker 1: They used five guys out of the bullpen there. The
30:24
Speaker 1: bullpens might be on kind of even footing here. Philadelphia
30:27
Speaker 1: is generally worse their eighteenth year. The Blue Jays are
30:31
Speaker 1: were are the Blues are sixteenth, but they do have
30:34
Speaker 1: a better era, but they have a little bit more usage.
30:36
Speaker 1: So I don't think there's a huge gap between the
30:38
Speaker 1: two bullpens in this one. I don't know if I'd
30:40
Speaker 1: really want to back either bullpen in this one. The
30:43
Speaker 1: offenses of both kind of struggled. Phillies are twenty second
30:47
Speaker 1: tied with the Royals. That's never good if you're tied
30:49
Speaker 1: with the Royals in any facet of the game. Toronto's
30:52
Speaker 1: been awful though. They're dead last thirtieth offensively, and Toronto's
30:57
Speaker 1: going with Max Schurzer here. They continue to roll him
31:01
Speaker 1: out there, man, and yeah, it's been way more bad
31:04
Speaker 1: than good. He's at the end of his rope. We
31:07
Speaker 1: know this. He's about to retire. Seven point nine to
31:10
Speaker 1: two RRA I thought he was gonna retire after last year.
31:12
Speaker 1: That was like the you know, make one more run
31:15
Speaker 1: of the World Series type of thing, although he's already one.
31:18
Speaker 1: I think you guys said he's won at least two, right,
31:20
Speaker 1: maybe three seven point nine to two RRA from him
31:23
Speaker 1: this year. That's not good. One point six y three
31:26
Speaker 1: whip not good. If his name wasn't Max Schurz or
31:28
Speaker 1: he probably would not be in a starting rotation right now.
31:31
Speaker 1: But he's actually been somewhat okay on the road. He
31:34
Speaker 1: has a three point one to two road r but
31:36
Speaker 1: it's a very small sample, and he's still been kind
31:38
Speaker 1: of hittable on the road. He pitched well on his
31:41
Speaker 1: last start against Saint Louis, so just randomly he kind
31:44
Speaker 1: of like finds himself and pitches well. But he's mostly
31:47
Speaker 1: been bad. He's had like two starts that were really
31:50
Speaker 1: good like that, and all the rest of the starts
31:52
Speaker 1: have been bad. He's got a high hit rate here,
31:55
Speaker 1: a high walk rate, a strike up rate is low.
31:57
Speaker 1: There's nothing to really like about this unless you think
31:59
Speaker 1: he's actually turning a corner and he's actually gonna start
32:03
Speaker 1: being in form here, which I don't really see many
32:05
Speaker 1: indicators of that unless we see him. If he starts
32:08
Speaker 1: streaking together multiple good starts in a row, then I'll
32:10
Speaker 1: start believing that he does have good career numbers against Philly,
32:14
Speaker 1: But obviously take that with a huge grain of salt
32:17
Speaker 1: because that was when Schurzer was actually good, which he
32:20
Speaker 1: isn't anymore. But they have two hundred and four at
32:22
Speaker 1: bats against him, seventy five strikeouts, eighteen walks, two twenty
32:25
Speaker 1: five average, six seventy six ops. All those numbers are
32:29
Speaker 1: good for sure, but I'm not convinced that he's actually
32:31
Speaker 1: gonna have a good start here. Man. The current version
32:34
Speaker 1: of Shurser is the worst that we've ever seen. So yeah,
32:38
Speaker 1: I would worry about that. Aaron Nola is pitching for Philadelphia,
32:41
Speaker 1: and he at least has one thing going for him
32:43
Speaker 1: is that he's younger than Max Scherzer. That's the only
32:47
Speaker 1: thing that he's got going for him. Well maybe, uh,
32:50
Speaker 1: he's got a five point five to five yarra one
32:52
Speaker 1: point four to four whip. He's struggling, man, trying to
32:54
Speaker 1: come back from the injury issues that he's had last
32:57
Speaker 1: couple of years. He's been awful at home. Six point
32:59
Speaker 1: four seven Homy area, so Schurzer does actually have an
33:02
Speaker 1: edge in the home road splits here. Nola has pitched
33:06
Speaker 1: better for more of an extended period of time now though,
33:09
Speaker 1: Like Nola actually was decent throughout the month of July.
33:12
Speaker 1: So though his team lost every one of his starts,
33:14
Speaker 1: but most of that wasn't really his fault. He wasn't
33:17
Speaker 1: really align that many runs, so he was not killing
33:19
Speaker 1: his team there, and then they won his last start.
33:22
Speaker 1: He pitched okay against Washington last time out, So Nola
33:25
Speaker 1: maybe actually pitching a little bit better, Like, we have
33:27
Speaker 1: more of an indicator that he's actually kind of turned
33:30
Speaker 1: a corner here than Shurser. And again, Nola's the younger guy,
33:34
Speaker 1: so there's more ability for him to do that. He's
33:38
Speaker 1: still got a high hit rate here, though his walk
33:40
Speaker 1: rate is kind of high too. He's a lot a
33:42
Speaker 1: ton of home runs, which has not helped the case
33:44
Speaker 1: at all. That's a ridiculous home run rate, really bad.
33:47
Speaker 1: His strikeout rate is actually not bad. He does strike
33:50
Speaker 1: out a decent amount of guys still, so that does
33:52
Speaker 1: tell you his stuff is kind of still there. He's
33:55
Speaker 1: going up against a really weak offense here. Toronto has
33:57
Speaker 1: fifty four at bats against him two two average seven
34:00
Speaker 1: thirty ohps. Not bad numbers for Nola. They're not great,
34:04
Speaker 1: but not bad. What do we do with this game?
34:07
Speaker 1: And when I first looked at it, my thought was
34:09
Speaker 1: over because it's like, I don't think you could trust
34:11
Speaker 1: either of these pitchers. Really. The total is pretty high
34:14
Speaker 1: at nine and a half, and the money is coming
34:16
Speaker 1: in on the over pretty strongly, fifty five percent of
34:19
Speaker 1: the tickets on the under, ninety percent of the cash
34:20
Speaker 1: on the over. But given what those matchup numbers look like,
34:23
Speaker 1: I kind of hesitate to want to really do that,
34:26
Speaker 1: and given that these are bad offenses, so I don't
34:28
Speaker 1: really know if I want to actually rely on these
34:30
Speaker 1: bad offenses. Like again, I think pitching just overcomes hitting.
34:34
Speaker 1: So the worst the hitting is, the less likely the
34:37
Speaker 1: hitting is going to be able to do anything against
34:39
Speaker 1: whatever pitchers they're going up against, you know what I mean.
34:41
Speaker 1: But I think the best pitchers can beat the best hitting,
34:44
Speaker 1: but I think lesser pitchers are able to beat lesser
34:48
Speaker 1: hitting as well, you know what I mean. So I'm
34:51
Speaker 1: going to take into account there. I got nothing on
34:55
Speaker 1: this game, really, man. I mean, maybe the over is
34:57
Speaker 1: the right play to make. Here. I don't know. I mean,
34:59
Speaker 1: I I don't want to do it, obviously, but eighty
35:01
Speaker 1: four percent of tickets, ninety four percent of the cash
35:03
Speaker 1: on Philly as well, they're around minus one fifty something.
35:06
Speaker 1: I guess maybe you could argue it's a bounce back
35:08
Speaker 1: for Philly. There are definitely some arguments for the Philly
35:12
Speaker 1: side here, I think more than there are for the
35:14
Speaker 1: Toronto side. But you do have to lay a price
35:16
Speaker 1: for it. You'd have to make like a minus one
35:18
Speaker 1: run line with Philly here, and oh no, they might
35:20
Speaker 1: not bad in the ninth inning or whatever, but at
35:22
Speaker 1: this point in their careers, I think Nola might actually
35:25
Speaker 1: be the more backable pitcher over Sheherza. But you saw
35:27
Speaker 1: the numbers like Nola's awful at home, So I still
35:30
Speaker 1: wouldn't want to do that. Maybe nothing is safe, but
35:34
Speaker 1: maybe the better way to play that is still to
35:36
Speaker 1: go with my first instinct to go over in that game,
35:39
Speaker 1: but I'm not gonna do anything with it. You like
35:42
Speaker 1: the Phillies to win. I somewhat agree with that. I
35:47
Speaker 1: don't agree with the Marlins though. Really, if you're gonna
35:50
Speaker 1: play the Marlins, I would do a full game. But
35:51
Speaker 1: I don't really like Urine is pretty good, man. I
35:54
Speaker 1: don't want to fade Ran. Yeah, Nolan, Christopher Nolan. Yeah
35:59
Speaker 1: he saw the Odyssey, fuck that, no Nola. Yeah Nola. Again,
36:03
Speaker 1: he's better over his last like month or so. But yeah,
36:06
Speaker 1: he used to be really good. He had some major
36:09
Speaker 1: injuries and he hasn't been able to bounce back from
36:11
Speaker 1: those injuries. That's that's what's going on with him. He
36:13
Speaker 1: looked good at the end of last year though, like so,
36:16
Speaker 1: I thought he was back, and this year he's mostly
36:19
Speaker 1: at a bad season. So I don't know. Mets in Pittsburgh.
36:23
Speaker 1: We got the win with the Mets yesterday. Pittsburgh was
36:25
Speaker 1: in a return home spot, so that was part of
36:27
Speaker 1: my handicap that that's typically a negative and it was
36:31
Speaker 1: not good for them. They were definitely bad early in
36:33
Speaker 1: that game and it was enough for the Mets to
36:34
Speaker 1: hang on and win. So we got the win with
36:37
Speaker 1: that one as an underdog. I enjoy I enjoy that
36:41
Speaker 1: we got that one. Right. The Mets won four games
36:43
Speaker 1: in a row for the first time all year, I think,
36:46
Speaker 1: But I don't put much weight into that. Man. I'm like,
36:48
Speaker 1: I'm looking at what's going on in the specific matchup.
36:51
Speaker 1: You know, Pittsburgh might be in a bounced back spot here,
36:53
Speaker 1: and I mean this is a team. They're in last
36:55
Speaker 1: place in their division. Now. They're not worse than the Reds. Okay,
36:59
Speaker 1: I don't really think that they're worse than Saint Louis either,
37:03
Speaker 1: So I think things have gotten a little bit. The
37:05
Speaker 1: things have gone a little bit too far with Pittsburgh here,
37:08
Speaker 1: and I think they're gonna start turning it around a
37:10
Speaker 1: little bit, although maybe it's too late. I don't think
37:12
Speaker 1: they're gonna make the playoffs, but it is a bounce
37:15
Speaker 1: backspot for them. Whenever a team returns home they don't
37:17
Speaker 1: do well in that game, they tend to bounce back
37:19
Speaker 1: pretty well in the next game. So it's a positive
37:21
Speaker 1: situation for Pittsburgh here. And on the surface, it's hard
37:26
Speaker 1: to gauge because it looks like the Mets are kind
37:28
Speaker 1: of going with a bullpen game here in Pittsburgh is
37:30
Speaker 1: at least going with an actual starter here, although he's
37:33
Speaker 1: not really that good of one. Pittsburgh, they're the worst bullpen.
37:37
Speaker 1: They used four guys out of the bullpen yesterday. They're
37:39
Speaker 1: the worst of these two bullpens. The Mets I use
37:42
Speaker 1: four as well, but I think the Mets too have
37:44
Speaker 1: a bullpen advantage, even though they were kind of sellers
37:47
Speaker 1: at the trade deadline out of the bullpen, but they're
37:49
Speaker 1: still seventh. They've been all right out of the bullpen.
37:53
Speaker 1: They were a little bit dicey last night, but good
37:55
Speaker 1: enough to still hang on to that game. Pittsburgh is
37:58
Speaker 1: twenty third. I mean, that's part of the reason why
37:59
Speaker 1: I went full game. Pittsburgh's bullpen is not really helping
38:03
Speaker 1: their team out much. Although they actually did buy at
38:05
Speaker 1: the trade deadline. They added a couple of bullpen arms,
38:07
Speaker 1: but I don't think it's gonna completely correct their bullpen,
38:11
Speaker 1: you know what I mean. They might be a little
38:12
Speaker 1: bit better. Pittsburgh is obviously the better offense. They're fourth,
38:15
Speaker 1: and they've been good at home. The Mets are twenty seven,
38:18
Speaker 1: so Pittsburgh does have an offensive edge. The Mets are
38:21
Speaker 1: going with the unsolved mystery host Robert Stock, not Robert Stack.
38:27
Speaker 1: Robert Stock. I'm not sure how much Stock to put
38:31
Speaker 1: into this man. He's I mean, what do we get
38:36
Speaker 1: out of him? Man? I mean, he's been sort of
38:39
Speaker 1: in and out of the league since twenty eighteen. He's
38:41
Speaker 1: mostly been a relief pitcher, hasn't really stuck in Major
38:44
Speaker 1: league baseball. He's thirty six years old at this point.
38:47
Speaker 1: But he put in a He had a good start
38:49
Speaker 1: against the Mets against Miami last time out. I believe
38:52
Speaker 1: he started the game right, Yeah, he did, and he
38:55
Speaker 1: went five innings. He gave up one run against Miami.
38:58
Speaker 1: I mean he pitched well. Really continue with a guy
39:01
Speaker 1: that's never stuck in major league baseball, he's mostly been
39:03
Speaker 1: a reliever, and he's thirty six years old. I don't
39:06
Speaker 1: think i'd want to bank on it, even though his
39:08
Speaker 1: numbers look good right now, one point eighty R point
39:11
Speaker 1: six whip, but I would not put much weight into that.
39:13
Speaker 1: It was one start he'd pitched well. I don't know
39:16
Speaker 1: if that's really gonna continue. And Pittsburgh is a way
39:18
Speaker 1: better offense than Miami's, in my opinion, especially in Pittsburgh,
39:22
Speaker 1: so he might be up against it here. Pittsburgh hasn't
39:24
Speaker 1: really seen him. Brandon Lowe is the only hitter's face him,
39:28
Speaker 1: and he has two walks, and those are his only
39:30
Speaker 1: at bats against him. I don't trust stock here man,
39:33
Speaker 1: But how much do you trust Bubba Chandler? Who's pitching
39:36
Speaker 1: for Pittsburgh here. He's the much younger guy, so obviously
39:38
Speaker 1: he's the guy with more upside here. Four point four
39:41
Speaker 1: to nine era, though one point four to one whip
39:43
Speaker 1: is definitely not very good. He's struggled at home more
39:46
Speaker 1: so than on the road. Four point eight to one
39:48
Speaker 1: home he ray that's not good. His main issue is walks.
39:52
Speaker 1: I feel like I say that a lot, but that
39:54
Speaker 1: is the case. He's got a low hit rate, so
39:56
Speaker 1: he doesn't allow that many hits. His strikeout rate isn't
39:58
Speaker 1: as good as I thought it would be. Like he
40:00
Speaker 1: looked really good at the end of last year he
40:02
Speaker 1: was striking a lot of guys out, but this year
40:04
Speaker 1: not so much. But his walk rate is again the
40:06
Speaker 1: major issue here, way way, way too high. That's a
40:10
Speaker 1: major concern. The Mets have never faced him, so maybe
40:13
Speaker 1: he does have an advantage there. He's facing kind of
40:15
Speaker 1: a weak line up here and they're gonna be unfamiliar
40:19
Speaker 1: with him, so maybe Chandler has an edge there. I
40:20
Speaker 1: think there probably is a situational edge for Pittsburgh here.
40:24
Speaker 1: It might be a bullpen game for the Mets. So
40:26
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say, if you're gonna play this game, I
40:27
Speaker 1: would probably pick Chandler must start for Pittsburgh, but I
40:30
Speaker 1: would probably not pick a starter for the Mets. Here.
40:34
Speaker 1: The Mets are getting the money fifty percent of tickets
40:36
Speaker 1: on Pittsburgh eighty three percent of the cash on the Mets.
40:40
Speaker 1: I don't see it. I would not really want to
40:42
Speaker 1: do that. Pittsburgh is a favorite about minus one twenty something,
40:45
Speaker 1: and there's legitimately been money against them because they dropped
40:49
Speaker 1: for minus one forty three, so there is actual money
40:51
Speaker 1: coming in on the side of the Mets here. I
40:53
Speaker 1: don't think I see it, man. I actually I kind
40:56
Speaker 1: of disagree. I think you're getting the picture with more
40:59
Speaker 1: upside at least with Pitsburgh and the better situation with Pittsburgh.
41:02
Speaker 1: Though if I was gonna go Pittsburgh, I'd probably limited
41:05
Speaker 1: to the first five. I don't really want to do it.
41:08
Speaker 1: I don't really want to trust Chandler here, but I
41:11
Speaker 1: think that might be some way to lean here. I mean,
41:13
Speaker 1: the better way to play this might just be to
41:15
Speaker 1: take the over though the game. The total is kind
41:17
Speaker 1: of high at nine, and do really trust either starting
41:20
Speaker 1: pitcher here? I don't think I would, and the total
41:22
Speaker 1: the tickets are coming in on the under, sixty two
41:25
Speaker 1: per tickets on the under, eighty three percent of the
41:27
Speaker 1: cash on the over. I think the over might be
41:30
Speaker 1: more likely in this game than anything else. Really, again,
41:33
Speaker 1: these are not pictures you really want to trust. So yeah,
41:36
Speaker 1: I think an over, I guess, probably is what makes
41:39
Speaker 1: the most sense. There no just no to anything about
41:47
Speaker 1: the odyssey. You should not like overs because the overs
41:51
Speaker 1: are more of a public play. So I think the
41:53
Speaker 1: unders hit at a higher rate than over So if
41:56
Speaker 1: you're if you're mostly playing overs, you're probably doing something wrong,
42:00
Speaker 1: all right, But I will pick spots where I will
42:03
Speaker 1: play overs. Obviously, I think unders probably hit like fifty
42:08
Speaker 1: one percent of the time or something like you're gonna
42:10
Speaker 1: go broke if you blindly play unders or overs like
42:13
Speaker 1: that's how the books make their money and because they
42:15
Speaker 1: charge you, so you can't get over that threshold either
42:19
Speaker 1: way you do it. But the public plays the over,
42:21
Speaker 1: so I think it's more likely than an under is
42:23
Speaker 1: gonna hit than an over, just in general, especially when
42:28
Speaker 1: you get into like football and shit like that, and
42:31
Speaker 1: then like the highly publicized games, those are all games
42:34
Speaker 1: where people play the overs. So the number has to
42:37
Speaker 1: be juiced towards the over all, right, and that means
42:40
Speaker 1: you get value on the unders Cincinnati and Washington. My
42:45
Speaker 1: first look at this, I'm like, yeah, this looks like
42:47
Speaker 1: a Cincinnati first five play here, which you know means
42:49
Speaker 1: Chase Burns is bitching. Washington did get the win yesterday,
42:53
Speaker 1: even though they were in a return home spot. They
42:54
Speaker 1: won anyway, five to three. They're probably the better team here,
42:58
Speaker 1: although I think Washington and It's gonna kind of trail
43:01
Speaker 1: off as the season finishes here. Washington doesn't have a
43:05
Speaker 1: good bullpen. These three guys out of the bullpen. Cincinnati's
43:07
Speaker 1: bullpen is not much better. They used four guys out
43:10
Speaker 1: of their bullpen. Washington's ranked twenty sixth in the bullpen.
43:14
Speaker 1: Cincinnati is twenty fifth. Cincinnati is better, but not by much.
43:18
Speaker 1: Washington is the better offense, they're number two, but they've
43:21
Speaker 1: been kind of bad over the last week or two,
43:24
Speaker 1: so Washington's kind of since the trade deadline. Basically, they
43:27
Speaker 1: sold a little bit at the trade deadline and their
43:30
Speaker 1: offense hasn't really been quite as good since then. The
43:33
Speaker 1: Reds are not a good offense. Though the Reds are
43:35
Speaker 1: nineteenth better than I actually thought they've been ranked in
43:38
Speaker 1: the twenties from a lot of the season. Maybe the
43:41
Speaker 1: Reds won't need much offense here because Chase Burns is pitching.
43:44
Speaker 1: Like I said, he's clearly the best starter, especially now
43:48
Speaker 1: that Hunter Green is injured yet again, and I think
43:51
Speaker 1: shut down for the season, absolutely ridiculous, only made like
43:55
Speaker 1: three starts or four starts or whatever. Burns though two
43:58
Speaker 1: point three five yar ra one point one whip Burns.
44:02
Speaker 1: He's been basically, he's good any anywhere he pitches. He's
44:06
Speaker 1: a little bit worse on the road two point five
44:08
Speaker 1: to one ROADI al right, still not bad. He's pitching
44:10
Speaker 1: well recently. I mean, there's not a whole lot to
44:13
Speaker 1: say about this. He's been really good for almost the
44:15
Speaker 1: entire season. He's only allowed more than two earned runs
44:19
Speaker 1: three times all season, and more than three earned runs
44:21
Speaker 1: only twice. I think is what that was. He's got
44:23
Speaker 1: a low hit rate, walk rate is low enough, strike
44:26
Speaker 1: out rate is high. All these numbers look good. One
44:29
Speaker 1: thing you do have to worry about with him is
44:31
Speaker 1: he's a young pitcher. You gotta worry about the innings
44:33
Speaker 1: threshold with these guys as you get late into the season.
44:36
Speaker 1: I don't think he's arrived at that yet. He's not
44:38
Speaker 1: close to that one point fifty yet, so I'm not
44:41
Speaker 1: too concerned by that yet. He's been good against Washington
44:44
Speaker 1: so far, with twenty four bats against some one sixty
44:46
Speaker 1: seven average, four ninety two oh ps eight to one
44:49
Speaker 1: at strikeout walk ratio. So Burns, I think he has
44:54
Speaker 1: a good matchup here. I think he should pitch well.
44:55
Speaker 1: Andrew Alvarez for Washington here he's a big question mark.
44:59
Speaker 1: He's got some talent and he could pitch well here
45:01
Speaker 1: against kind of a weaker offense. I think the variance
45:05
Speaker 1: with him is really big, Like he could go up
45:07
Speaker 1: there and just absolutely suck, or he could go out
45:10
Speaker 1: there and do really well. So that's really you have
45:12
Speaker 1: to kind of that's how you handicap this game. You
45:14
Speaker 1: have to figure out what the hell is Alvarez gonna
45:16
Speaker 1: do in this game? And that makes this really difficult
45:18
Speaker 1: to handicap because I think Burns will give you a
45:20
Speaker 1: good start Alvarez three point nine to four yar ra,
45:23
Speaker 1: but his whip is not that good one point four
45:25
Speaker 1: to five. He's been a bit worse at home four
45:28
Speaker 1: point six y three home, he rash maybe you want
45:31
Speaker 1: to fade him at home. And his walk rate is
45:34
Speaker 1: definitely an issue. So he walks too many guys. He's
45:37
Speaker 1: walked three guys a piece in his last three starts,
45:40
Speaker 1: three or more and four of the last five starts.
45:42
Speaker 1: That's not a good thing. His hit rate is okay,
45:44
Speaker 1: his walk rate, like I said, way too high. Straygut
45:47
Speaker 1: rate is decent, almost one per inning, and he does
45:49
Speaker 1: get a lot of ground ball outs as well, but
45:52
Speaker 1: he's got control issues. Man. Now, the Reds haven't seen him,
45:56
Speaker 1: and the Reds are not the greatest offense obviously, so
45:58
Speaker 1: he might do okay here because again he's unfamiliar to them,
46:02
Speaker 1: so you might have a little bit of an edge there.
46:04
Speaker 1: But I still think if I was gonna play this game,
46:06
Speaker 1: I still think it's probably Cincinnati in the first five
46:09
Speaker 1: would be the way that I would look at this game.
46:11
Speaker 1: I think Burns should still win the starting pitching battle here.
46:15
Speaker 1: He's he is that good, but you have to pay
46:18
Speaker 1: a price for it. The oddsmakers know this. At this point,
46:21
Speaker 1: you're laying like minus one thirty something up to minus
46:23
Speaker 1: one forty with Cincinnati in the full game, and it
46:26
Speaker 1: might be worse than that. In the first five, right. Ohthough,
46:29
Speaker 1: Washington's bullpen is worse. So if you wanted to try
46:32
Speaker 1: to cut the price down a little bit and go
46:34
Speaker 1: Red's full game and hope that their bullpen doesn't implode
46:37
Speaker 1: on you, or hope that Washington hurts Washington, I guess
46:42
Speaker 1: I could see the argument for it for Cincinnati full game,
46:45
Speaker 1: but I think the biggest edge you have here is
46:47
Speaker 1: probably still in the first five. But I think you're
46:49
Speaker 1: gonna wind up having to lay a half run with
46:51
Speaker 1: Cincinnati in the first five if you do it that way.
46:54
Speaker 1: Eighty five percent of the tickets ninety percent of the
46:55
Speaker 1: cash on Cincinnati. So kind of crazy to see the
46:58
Speaker 1: public ticket percentage on Cincinnati because normally they'd play the
47:01
Speaker 1: team with the better record, which is Washington. But I
47:04
Speaker 1: think they've gone on to how good Burns is, so
47:08
Speaker 1: I think that's what's going on there. But I still
47:09
Speaker 1: think first five Cincinnati makes the most sense in that game.
47:13
Speaker 1: Cubs in Kansas City. Kansas City lost the game yesterday
47:18
Speaker 1: six to four. Kevin Gousstman pretty good in his Cub's debut.
47:21
Speaker 1: Maybe a change of scenery good for goustman Man. I mean,
47:24
Speaker 1: he's a good pitcher. He wasn't pitching that well down
47:27
Speaker 1: the stretch with the Toronto but maybe he's gonna have
47:29
Speaker 1: a little bit of a resurgence with with the Cubs.
47:33
Speaker 1: There he looked good and Lynch was done. He got lynched.
47:38
Speaker 1: He was given the rope early in the game. Oh
47:42
Speaker 1: my god, I can't say that. Lynch. Yeah, he was
47:46
Speaker 1: out of the game really early. He sucked. I thought
47:48
Speaker 1: it was gonna kind of be a bullpen game for
47:49
Speaker 1: Kansas City. And by the way, he was only starting.
47:51
Speaker 1: I forgot to mention that because Avila, who had been
47:56
Speaker 1: in their starting rotation, he's hurt now. So that's why
47:59
Speaker 1: Lynch made the start yesterday. Things are not going well
48:01
Speaker 1: for Kansas City, let's put it that way. And by
48:03
Speaker 1: the way, Pittsburgh went with a bullpen game slash from
48:06
Speaker 1: Loadzinsky yesterday because uh actually, let me make sure that
48:12
Speaker 1: that that game actually counted. I don't want to have
48:14
Speaker 1: a misleading record here. Yeah. Well actually I didn't even
48:17
Speaker 1: I said, just play at action anyway, though, But yes,
48:20
Speaker 1: those starters did start in the game anyway, so if
48:22
Speaker 1: you played it that way, it's still counting. But anyway,
48:25
Speaker 1: the reason why Loadzinsky started. I forgot to mention is
48:27
Speaker 1: because Mitch Keller is hurt for Pittsburgh, So I'll just
48:30
Speaker 1: throw that out there as well. Trying to keep track
48:32
Speaker 1: of all the injuries going on here, I miss a
48:35
Speaker 1: lot of them. But speaking of injuries, we got a
48:37
Speaker 1: guy who's injured who's coming back and with a new team.
48:41
Speaker 1: Now with the Cubs, the Cubs have a completely different
48:43
Speaker 1: starting rotation down the stretch. Like their starting rotation was
48:47
Speaker 1: hurting Man after Cad Horton went down. Horton's good man
48:51
Speaker 1: and that was a major blow to the Cubs. But
48:54
Speaker 1: now they got Gusman and they got Klay Holmes pitching today.
48:57
Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's going to improve the rotation. Man,
49:00
Speaker 1: that's an improvement over these other guys they've had pitching.
49:02
Speaker 1: Some of these guys. Maybe David Peterson will finally be up,
49:06
Speaker 1: but probably not because he's actually pitching well anyway. Kansas
49:10
Speaker 1: City's bullpen is bad. They use three guys out of
49:13
Speaker 1: the bullpen. The Cubs clearly have the better bullpen here.
49:16
Speaker 1: The Cubs used three as well. The Cubs are thirteenth,
49:20
Speaker 1: but Kansas City they're ranked dead last. I guess we'll
49:24
Speaker 1: give them that they're better than the A's. Okay, that's all.
49:27
Speaker 1: I'll give them the horrible bullpen. For Kansas City Cubs
49:31
Speaker 1: are the better offense as well. They ranked third. Kansas
49:34
Speaker 1: City is twenty second, tied with the Phillies, which sounds
49:37
Speaker 1: like a good thing, but it isn't. And our man,
49:40
Speaker 1: Clay Holmes is coming back here.
49:41
Speaker 2: Man.
49:41
Speaker 1: He's been on the sixty day injured list with a
49:44
Speaker 1: broken fibula, and you guys might remember that because that
49:47
Speaker 1: happened in a game that I gave out as a
49:49
Speaker 1: play on the show. It was against the Yankees. I
49:51
Speaker 1: believe when Holmes was still with the Mets, the Mets
49:54
Speaker 1: traded him. I believe that the trade deadline, even though
49:57
Speaker 1: he was on the injured list, they traded him. So
50:00
Speaker 1: I guess his medical must have checked out. So that
50:03
Speaker 1: kind of leads me to believe he's actually gonna pitch
50:04
Speaker 1: well here that his medical all checked out. But he
50:07
Speaker 1: was good this season before going down two point three
50:10
Speaker 1: to nine ERA one point one whip. He was good
50:14
Speaker 1: on the road as well, two point one Roady rail though,
50:16
Speaker 1: I would dial it back a little bit because even
50:18
Speaker 1: though he did have a good season, pretty much with
50:21
Speaker 1: the Mets last year and with the Yankees the couple
50:23
Speaker 1: of years prior to that. With the Yankees he was
50:25
Speaker 1: a relief pitcher, and then when the Mets made him
50:27
Speaker 1: a starter, his whip was a little bit high and
50:30
Speaker 1: kind of indicated that he should have been worse than
50:32
Speaker 1: he was. He was walking too many guys, although this year,
50:35
Speaker 1: for whatever reason, he did get the walks kind of
50:37
Speaker 1: under control a little bit literally, So he had a
50:40
Speaker 1: pretty low hit rate here this season. So far as
50:42
Speaker 1: walk rate really wasn't that bad. He gets a lot
50:45
Speaker 1: of ground ball outs, although that always makes you think
50:48
Speaker 1: of David Peterson, who I think is ass and Holmes
50:53
Speaker 1: not really a great strikeout rate, as you could probably expect,
50:55
Speaker 1: but he was pitching pretty well before he went down.
50:58
Speaker 1: And you remember he took the line dry off of
51:00
Speaker 1: his leg his shin in that game against the Yankees,
51:03
Speaker 1: and I believe I gave out the Unders what it
51:05
Speaker 1: was as a play in that game, and I think
51:07
Speaker 1: it's still hit. And Clay Holmes, because he's a badass,
51:12
Speaker 1: he stayed in the game and got up to ninety
51:14
Speaker 1: five pitches. He threw like twenty nine more pitches with
51:17
Speaker 1: a broken leg in that game and grinded his way
51:20
Speaker 1: through that game, although he lost the game, but you
51:23
Speaker 1: got to give him credit for that. Man, this guy,
51:26
Speaker 1: he's he's not gonna go down without a fight. So
51:29
Speaker 1: I like that. And if he could pitch on a
51:31
Speaker 1: broken leg, that leads me to believe that he's probably
51:34
Speaker 1: gonna at least be alright coming back here. He's a veteran,
51:37
Speaker 1: so I'm not worried about him coming back from the
51:39
Speaker 1: injured list or anything like that. He's probably had some
51:42
Speaker 1: periods of time where he hasn't played before. New team
51:47
Speaker 1: might actually spark him a little bit, because again, like
51:49
Speaker 1: I said, with well, actually he's he's going with he's
51:53
Speaker 1: joining the Holy shit, him and David Peterson, they both
51:56
Speaker 1: kind of pitched the same way, and they're they're both
51:59
Speaker 1: going from the Mets to the Cubs here. Is that
52:01
Speaker 1: really what happened? That's so insane, dude, They're like twins,
52:05
Speaker 1: Clay Holmes and David Peterson. There you go. But maybeake Peterson,
52:09
Speaker 1: maybe Holmes will start pitching well, or well, he was
52:12
Speaker 1: already pitching well, but maybe he'll be excited to be
52:14
Speaker 1: on a team that is in contention here at the Cubs.
52:17
Speaker 1: You know what I mean and make the playoffs here,
52:19
Speaker 1: and he's been good against the Royals in the past
52:21
Speaker 1: at thirty four at bats I'm rambling today. Two thirty
52:24
Speaker 1: five average allowed six to sixty nine ops. That's pretty good.
52:28
Speaker 1: So I think Holmes is more likely to pitch well
52:30
Speaker 1: here than not. Although I know there are professional guys
52:32
Speaker 1: that don't like backing guys coming off a long injury layoff,
52:37
Speaker 1: I kind of do when it's a veteran like Homes,
52:39
Speaker 1: so I'm I would be okay with that seth Lugo
52:42
Speaker 1: is pitching for Kansas City. He's mediocre. Four point four
52:45
Speaker 1: to one ERA, one point three to nine WHIP. He's
52:47
Speaker 1: pretty good at home though, three point sixty three homey RA.
52:50
Speaker 1: He is better at home. Struggled last time out. It
52:53
Speaker 1: was in course field, though, but he did walk a
52:55
Speaker 1: ton of guys in that outing, so not exactly great,
52:58
Speaker 1: but he was he reasonably good throughout the month of July.
53:02
Speaker 1: He had one bad start in there against the Mets Hilariously. Overall,
53:07
Speaker 1: he's mediocre. Like I said, his hit rates a little
53:10
Speaker 1: bit too high, his walk rate is okay, his strike
53:12
Speaker 1: up rate is kind of low, so his ratio there
53:14
Speaker 1: isn't really that good. The strike out walk ratio numbers
53:17
Speaker 1: against the Cobs are actually good though. In eighty four
53:20
Speaker 1: at bats one sixty seven average four to eighty seven
53:22
Speaker 1: OPS allowed eighteen to five strike out walk ratio. So
53:25
Speaker 1: this might be a decent matchup for Lugo. Here he's
53:28
Speaker 1: in the better of his home road splits and pitching
53:31
Speaker 1: against a lineup that, believe it or not, he's actually
53:33
Speaker 1: been good against them, even though they were a good lineup.
53:36
Speaker 1: I think a first five under might actually be the
53:38
Speaker 1: way to play this. I think both starting pitchers might
53:40
Speaker 1: actually be able to do it. And the totals high
53:42
Speaker 1: at nine and a half, so you're gonna be looking
53:44
Speaker 1: at probably like a five in the first five here.
53:47
Speaker 1: That's a reasonable number for what this starting pitching matchup is.
53:50
Speaker 1: I know it's Kansas City, the walls have been moved
53:53
Speaker 1: in whatever, but I think that's probably what I would do.
53:55
Speaker 1: And the money seems to be agreeing with the under
53:57
Speaker 1: fifty three percent of tickets on the over nine percent
54:00
Speaker 1: of the cash on the under. The big concern is
54:02
Speaker 1: obviously the Kansas City bullpen. I would not want to
54:05
Speaker 1: include them in that equation for the under there. That's
54:09
Speaker 1: one thing that could really doom the under So yeah,
54:12
Speaker 1: I think the starting pitching might actually be all right here,
54:15
Speaker 1: and the Cubs look way too public ninety one percent
54:17
Speaker 1: of tickets, ninety three percent of the cash on them.
54:19
Speaker 1: Holmes is probably the better of the starters here, but
54:22
Speaker 1: I don't think it's by a significant margin. And laying
54:26
Speaker 1: minus won sixty almost of the Cubs here doesn't seem
54:30
Speaker 1: like the greatest idea to me, you know. I mean
54:32
Speaker 1: that that price should be reserved for pitchers that are
54:35
Speaker 1: probably a little bit better than Clay Holmes. Let's say
54:38
Speaker 1: Kansas City gets majorly disrespected in the market, and kind
54:41
Speaker 1: of rightfully so they suck. They're one of the worst teams.
54:43
Speaker 1: But you know, you're not getting any value playing the
54:46
Speaker 1: Cubs here, you know what I mean. The odds makers
54:48
Speaker 1: know they're going to be public ninety percent of tickets,
54:50
Speaker 1: ninety three percent of the cash on them, So I
54:52
Speaker 1: think they're just a public side. I'm kind of surprised
54:55
Speaker 1: that some of the money isn't coming in on Kansas City.
54:57
Speaker 1: It might just be a game where the even the
54:59
Speaker 1: professional are just kind of like, yeah, whatever, I don't
55:01
Speaker 1: really want to do it. I don't know, but usually
55:03
Speaker 1: they do start kind of just coming in and playing
55:05
Speaker 1: that number and being like, oh yeah, there's clearly value
55:08
Speaker 1: on the Kansas City side there. Kansas City. Although if
55:12
Speaker 1: you're gonna play Kansas City, I think you gotta play
55:14
Speaker 1: at first five, like take the run line in the
55:16
Speaker 1: first five. I don't see any other way of really
55:18
Speaker 1: playing Kansas City there, because again, you can't back their bullpen. PCA,
55:23
Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on with him, and he's
55:25
Speaker 1: been he was awful like earlier this year, wasn't he
55:28
Speaker 1: He had a stretcher. He was absolutely abysmal, and I
55:31
Speaker 1: think it was this year. So there's no way he's
55:33
Speaker 1: gonna win the MVP. If that's the case that was
55:37
Speaker 1: this year, right let me see, am I thinking of
55:41
Speaker 1: last year? Maybe I might be thinking of last year?
55:46
Speaker 1: Let me see. I'm looking at the odds right now.
55:52
Speaker 1: He's actually the favorite to win it in the NL
55:55
Speaker 1: sho Heotani is very close behind him, and I guess
55:59
Speaker 1: looking at these odds, it's gonna be one of the
56:00
Speaker 1: two of them. I don't know, man, I don't really
56:04
Speaker 1: think it's gonna be Pca, unless I'm wrong about which
56:07
Speaker 1: he had some season where he was god awful, but
56:10
Speaker 1: maybe that was last year. I don't I don't remember.
56:13
Speaker 1: And it looks like Alvarez is the heavy favorite to
56:17
Speaker 1: win it in the American League. I don't know much
56:18
Speaker 1: about what's going on in the American League. You're don
56:21
Speaker 1: Alvarez on Houston, that is, yes, I mean, I guess
56:28
Speaker 1: because he's in the MVP running there. What about the NBA,
56:33
Speaker 1: I don't know. The w NBA is about to have
56:36
Speaker 1: male players. By the way, I'll mention that when I
56:38
Speaker 1: get to the WNBA segment. How about that. I got
56:41
Speaker 1: to finish this off, man. We have way too many
56:42
Speaker 1: games left Minnesota Milwaukee. Milwaukee is clearly the better of
56:46
Speaker 1: these two teams here. Milwaukee is one of the best
56:48
Speaker 1: teams in baseball, and I think they have the best record.
56:51
Speaker 1: It's gonna be kind of fun. Like, dude, I don't know.
56:54
Speaker 1: If Milwaukee can somehow make a run here and like
56:56
Speaker 1: win the World Series, I would not hate that, Let's
56:59
Speaker 1: just put it that way. Milwaukee lost yesterday, though they
57:02
Speaker 1: were kind of in a letdown spot after demolishing the
57:05
Speaker 1: Pirates across three Oh they didn't really demolish them, but
57:08
Speaker 1: they won three out of four games. Bad game for
57:10
Speaker 1: Milwaukee yesterday they lost to the Twins. Shane Drohan didn't
57:14
Speaker 1: have it yesterday and Zebbi actually out pitched him in
57:17
Speaker 1: the game yesterday. Zebbi allowed some unearned runs there, so
57:21
Speaker 1: the fielding wasn't good behind him, But generally Minnesota's Milwaukee excuse,
57:25
Speaker 1: he's the better team all around here. Minnesota's bullpen is
57:28
Speaker 1: ass They used five guys yesterday out of the bullpen.
57:31
Speaker 1: Milwaukee only used two, so they kind of saved their
57:33
Speaker 1: bullpen as well. Milwaukee clearly has a bullpen edge here.
57:36
Speaker 1: They're one of the top bullpens. They ranked ninth, but
57:38
Speaker 1: I think they're like a top five bullpen. Minnesota is
57:41
Speaker 1: one of the worst several bullpens. They're twenty eighth. Not good.
57:46
Speaker 1: Brewers have been the better offense as well, their eighth
57:48
Speaker 1: Minnesota's twelfth. Minnesota has at least been capable offensively, though
57:53
Speaker 1: Taj Bradley is getting the start from Minnesota. If you
57:55
Speaker 1: look at just on the surface, it kind of looks
57:57
Speaker 1: like Minnesota's got the better starter here. Bradley's got the
58:00
Speaker 1: better era three point six to nine, although his whip
58:03
Speaker 1: is higher than his opponent's whip here one point two four.
58:07
Speaker 1: Bradley's got some issues with his command still, and he's
58:10
Speaker 1: not quite as good on the road. He's been really
58:12
Speaker 1: good at home this year, but on the road he's
58:14
Speaker 1: been a bit more human with a four point one
58:16
Speaker 1: to seven roady ra He is pitching well, though he's
58:19
Speaker 1: only a lot more than three in runs once over
58:21
Speaker 1: the last month and a half or basically two months,
58:25
Speaker 1: which was a game on the road against the Cobs,
58:27
Speaker 1: and it might have been a wrigly wind game or something.
58:30
Speaker 1: I don't really know what that was. He's only alowed
58:32
Speaker 1: more than tour in runs one other time across that span,
58:35
Speaker 1: which was his most recent game at Seattle. Maybe that's
58:38
Speaker 1: not a good sign though, because that's a pitcher friendly parker.
58:41
Speaker 1: He wasn't exactly bad in that game, but he did
58:44
Speaker 1: walk way too many guys and he's walked three or
58:47
Speaker 1: more in four straight outings, so that's not good. Like
58:49
Speaker 1: I said, he has command issues, that's his one problem.
58:52
Speaker 1: He's got a low hit rate, a high strikeout rate.
58:54
Speaker 1: That's all good, but he walks way too many guys.
58:57
Speaker 1: So that's his one drawback here, and he's not been
59:00
Speaker 1: good against the Brewers in the past and twenty one
59:02
Speaker 1: at bats three point thirty three average allowed nine eighty
59:04
Speaker 1: three ops five to one strike a walk ratios all right,
59:07
Speaker 1: but the rest of those numbers are not particularly good.
59:11
Speaker 1: So he hasn't been good against Milwaukee in the past.
59:12
Speaker 1: I don't think he's facing this year, and I think
59:15
Speaker 1: their geographic interleague rival, so I think this is the
59:18
Speaker 1: second time they're playing each other this year, but the
59:20
Speaker 1: second series, I mean. But whatever, Robert Gasser is getting
59:24
Speaker 1: the start for Milwaukee here. I think he's not that bad.
59:27
Speaker 1: He's a little bit under the radar. His era is
59:29
Speaker 1: worse than Bradley, so I think the public is going
59:32
Speaker 1: to ignore Gasser hero although the public might want to
59:35
Speaker 1: play the Brewers anyway because they have the better record.
59:37
Speaker 1: But Minnesota is still fighting for the playoffs. Man, they
59:40
Speaker 1: think they can actually do it. It makes me laugh.
59:43
Speaker 1: But the Als is absolute trash, So maybe, although I
59:48
Speaker 1: still don't think so, even though I think they might
59:49
Speaker 1: be winning their division right now. Gass are four point
59:53
Speaker 1: four to eighty ra though one point one to seven whip,
59:57
Speaker 1: three point one to three home era for Gassers. He's
1:00:00
Speaker 1: better at home, so the home road splits favorite Gasser here,
1:00:03
Speaker 1: and the command numbers also favor him. He walks way
1:00:06
Speaker 1: fewer guys than Bradley does. Gasser did have one real
1:00:10
Speaker 1: implosion recently at Pittsburgh, but other than that he's been good.
1:00:13
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's a good lineup as well, and his other really
1:00:16
Speaker 1: bad start was at the A's, but we know that's
1:00:18
Speaker 1: a tough environment to pitch in. He had one bad
1:00:21
Speaker 1: start really early on in the season against the Dodgers.
1:00:24
Speaker 1: So basically the trend here is he's been bad in
1:00:27
Speaker 1: bad pitching environments or against good offenses, so that's what's
1:00:31
Speaker 1: going on here. Minnesota is good, but they're not as
1:00:34
Speaker 1: good as those other two teams. Although he did actually
1:00:36
Speaker 1: pitch against Minnesota really early in the season, he struggled
1:00:39
Speaker 1: in that one. He's got a low hit rate on
1:00:42
Speaker 1: the season, though reasonably low. His walk rate is definitely low,
1:00:44
Speaker 1: so he's a lot better in that department than his
1:00:47
Speaker 1: counterpart in this game, Bradley. And his strikeout rate is okay,
1:00:52
Speaker 1: so he doesn't have like the strikeout stuff that Bradley has,
1:00:55
Speaker 1: but he's also way less wild, so Gasser might be
1:00:58
Speaker 1: a little bit more consistent than Brady. Badly. Gassler has
1:01:01
Speaker 1: been good against Minnesota, despite what that looked like early
1:01:03
Speaker 1: in the season. They have fifteen at bats against them
1:01:05
Speaker 1: out of their current lineup and only two hundred average
1:01:08
Speaker 1: at six to eleven ops two to two strike out
1:01:11
Speaker 1: walk ratios. So I actually like Milwaukee in this game.
1:01:15
Speaker 1: I think there's definitely an argument they have the better
1:01:17
Speaker 1: starter here, and they obviously have the better bullpen, they
1:01:20
Speaker 1: have the better offense, they're the better team, and they
1:01:22
Speaker 1: shouldn't be in a bounced back spot after an ugly
1:01:25
Speaker 1: game yesterday, which might have kind of been a letdown
1:01:27
Speaker 1: spot for them. They look public though, eighty three percent
1:01:30
Speaker 1: of the tickets, so the public is coming in on
1:01:31
Speaker 1: the better record. Milwaukee eighty seven percent of the cash
1:01:35
Speaker 1: though maybe there's some professional money coming in here as well.
1:01:39
Speaker 1: Looks like maybe not. I don't know. The line hasn't
1:01:41
Speaker 1: really moved. It's sitting at minus one fifties. That kind
1:01:43
Speaker 1: of worries me if you really want to back Milwaukee here.
1:01:46
Speaker 1: The oddsmakers have not really moved this line. But I
1:01:49
Speaker 1: think that's kind of the only way to really look
1:01:51
Speaker 1: at this game is to just grab Milwaukee in the
1:01:53
Speaker 1: full game. If you can find it at blow minus
1:01:56
Speaker 1: one fifty. Maybe the money line is an option or
1:01:59
Speaker 1: make a minus one run line on it. But then again,
1:02:01
Speaker 1: they won't batten the ninth inning necessarily if they're already winning.
1:02:05
Speaker 1: But at least if they're already winning, that means you'll
1:02:07
Speaker 1: at the worst push that bet if you're on the
1:02:09
Speaker 1: minus one. So all right, Baltimore and Texas, this one
1:02:13
Speaker 1: almost made the cut for me. And since it's a
1:02:16
Speaker 1: game in Texas, you probably know that means I was
1:02:18
Speaker 1: eyeing the under in this game. Yesterday's game went way
1:02:21
Speaker 1: under two to one, and I kind of thought it
1:02:24
Speaker 1: had the look of a low scoring game. But I
1:02:26
Speaker 1: was a little bit concerned about those starting pitching in
1:02:28
Speaker 1: yesterday's game. I think it was bas against Evaldi. I
1:02:31
Speaker 1: think Eovaldi had really bad numbers against the Orioles or something,
1:02:34
Speaker 1: which is why I laid off that game, really, but
1:02:37
Speaker 1: he pitched well. It looks like in Texas won two
1:02:40
Speaker 1: to one. So Texas is on a nice little mini
1:02:42
Speaker 1: run here of three wins in a row. They're right
1:02:45
Speaker 1: there in the mix for the Al West right now.
1:02:47
Speaker 1: Potentially Texas is gonna need to turn around their bullpen issues.
1:02:51
Speaker 1: They used three guys out of the bullpen. They did
1:02:53
Speaker 1: have to use some of their better relievers that think
1:02:55
Speaker 1: to hold off Baltimore in the game yesterday, Baltimore didn't
1:02:59
Speaker 1: use anybody I got of the bullpens. They might have used,
1:03:01
Speaker 1: like starting pitching as a relief yesterday. I don't know
1:03:04
Speaker 1: what they did unmost bos. Maybe Boz went the complete game.
1:03:07
Speaker 1: I don't know. I haven't looked at the box score.
1:03:09
Speaker 1: But Baltimore for that reason, probably does have a bullpen
1:03:12
Speaker 1: advantage here. They're ringked eleventh. They've actually been better than Texas,
1:03:15
Speaker 1: believing or not. Texas is nineteenth and plus the rest
1:03:19
Speaker 1: edge probably does give Baltimore a little bit of a
1:03:21
Speaker 1: bullpen advantage here. Although remember Baltimore was sellers at the
1:03:24
Speaker 1: trade deadline. Remember, and Texas has something to play for
1:03:28
Speaker 1: and they were not sellers at the trade deadline, So
1:03:30
Speaker 1: Texas probably has a motivational edge in a matchup like this.
1:03:34
Speaker 1: Texas is seventeenth offensively, Baltimore is twentieth now tie at Arizona.
1:03:39
Speaker 1: Weird thinking about it that Texas might actually be the
1:03:42
Speaker 1: better offense here. But Baltimore, you know, they were sellers
1:03:45
Speaker 1: at the trade deadline. Baltimore's got Kyle Bradish going here.
1:03:49
Speaker 1: He's got a three point seven to ninety arrail, though
1:03:51
Speaker 1: his whip isn't really that good one point three to six.
1:03:53
Speaker 1: He's been a little bit worse on the road four
1:03:55
Speaker 1: point two to three roadier Array, although the real concern
1:03:58
Speaker 1: is his opponent batting average on the road is way
1:04:00
Speaker 1: worse than it is at home two ninety seven on
1:04:02
Speaker 1: the road, so he is very hittable on the road.
1:04:05
Speaker 1: I tried to back him in that last game via
1:04:08
Speaker 1: the first five under against Philly, and I think we
1:04:10
Speaker 1: got screwed by the rain delay in that one, dude,
1:04:13
Speaker 1: because it was Bradish against Wheeler, and I think they
1:04:15
Speaker 1: both got taken out in the third inning of that game.
1:04:17
Speaker 1: I think there was a rain delay. Then they tried
1:04:19
Speaker 1: to finish the game and they wound up cutting it
1:04:21
Speaker 1: short at six innings, but the first five plays still,
1:04:24
Speaker 1: I think all the plays probably still counted. We got
1:04:27
Speaker 1: kind of screwed in that one, man. I'm kind of
1:04:28
Speaker 1: pissed off about that because it wasn't really Bradish that
1:04:32
Speaker 1: allowed most of that damage. He had allowed two runs
1:04:35
Speaker 1: through three innings, which at least will kind of keep
1:04:37
Speaker 1: you in the mix for that under there, especially when
1:04:40
Speaker 1: he's going up against Zach Wheeler, you know, who didn't
1:04:42
Speaker 1: allow any runs. So at the point where the starters
1:04:45
Speaker 1: left the game after three innings, it was only a
1:04:47
Speaker 1: two to nothing game. So I think we got screwed
1:04:51
Speaker 1: losing that under there. So I'm pissed about that. Do
1:04:53
Speaker 1: we trust Bradish though, I don't know. I mean, he
1:04:55
Speaker 1: had a bad start at the previous start against Detroit,
1:04:58
Speaker 1: but part of the reason I backed him in that
1:04:59
Speaker 1: Philly these games because he was at home. He's not
1:05:02
Speaker 1: at home here. Although he was pitching reasonably well for
1:05:05
Speaker 1: the few starts prior to the Detroit one. He's got
1:05:08
Speaker 1: a decently low hit rate here. His walk rate is
1:05:10
Speaker 1: too high, though again another guy who has too many walks,
1:05:13
Speaker 1: that's the case with him. His strikeout rate is okay,
1:05:16
Speaker 1: gets a lot of ground ball outs as well, and
1:05:19
Speaker 1: he's good against Texas. They don't have much experience against him.
1:05:22
Speaker 1: Five hitters have faced him fifteen at bats. One extra
1:05:25
Speaker 1: race hit is a double from Evan Carter. They do
1:05:28
Speaker 1: have some walks three walks, two strikeouts, but a two
1:05:30
Speaker 1: hundred average six hundred ohps. So I think Bradish does
1:05:33
Speaker 1: actually match up decently here, and it's a decent pitching park,
1:05:37
Speaker 1: and I think both offenses are somewhat weak here, and
1:05:41
Speaker 1: Jacob de Grom is pitching for Texas, so that doesn't
1:05:45
Speaker 1: really that's the least of my concerns as far as
1:05:48
Speaker 1: the under here wanted to back the under here. My
1:05:50
Speaker 1: main concern is obviously Bradish and the fact that he's
1:05:53
Speaker 1: not as good on the road and he's not as
1:05:55
Speaker 1: good as de Grom. Obviously de Grom future Hall of
1:05:58
Speaker 1: Famer three point nine to sixty ra a one point
1:06:01
Speaker 1: one to four whip. He's been better at home as well,
1:06:03
Speaker 1: three point zero four homy Ra walked five guys last
1:06:07
Speaker 1: outing on the road against Houston. That was bad, and
1:06:09
Speaker 1: he's actually been bad in two of his last three starts,
1:06:12
Speaker 1: one of them was at home against the White Sox.
1:06:13
Speaker 1: But I think I'll have an easier go of it
1:06:15
Speaker 1: here against Baltimore. He's kind of been alternating good and
1:06:18
Speaker 1: bad starts here, so that would mean he's in line
1:06:20
Speaker 1: to pitch well here. He does pitch better at home.
1:06:22
Speaker 1: He actually wasn't great against Baltimore in his first start
1:06:25
Speaker 1: of the season, but you usually don't want to factor
1:06:28
Speaker 1: in that first start, you can usually just throw it out,
1:06:31
Speaker 1: which is also what I would say to do with
1:06:32
Speaker 1: gass or with his first start of the season against
1:06:35
Speaker 1: Minnesota or whatever. De Grom. I mean, we know de
1:06:38
Speaker 1: Grom is good. Whatever. He's got a pretty low hit
1:06:40
Speaker 1: rate here. He doesn't really walk anybody, so his walk
1:06:42
Speaker 1: rate's good. His strikeout rate is high as well, so
1:06:44
Speaker 1: even though he's old, he still strikes guys out at
1:06:47
Speaker 1: a pretty elite rate. And he's been really good against
1:06:49
Speaker 1: Baltimore in thirty five at bats, fifteen to one straight
1:06:52
Speaker 1: up walk ratio one forty three average, four nineteen ops. There,
1:06:56
Speaker 1: not a huge sample, but it's good enough to gauge
1:06:58
Speaker 1: something from it, and Baltimore, you know, a week in
1:07:01
Speaker 1: their off it's a little bit at the trade deadline.
1:07:04
Speaker 1: So yeah, I still think the under is the way
1:07:06
Speaker 1: to play it. That one almost made the cut for me.
1:07:08
Speaker 1: If I was gonna add on another play today, that's
1:07:11
Speaker 1: probably what it would be. Baltimore, Texas under. I think
1:07:14
Speaker 1: both bullpens are probably backable here, and you'll get the
1:07:17
Speaker 1: key number seven and a half there. Money looks like
1:07:20
Speaker 1: a degrees seventy percent of tickets on the over sixty
1:07:23
Speaker 1: two percent of the cash on the over and the
1:07:25
Speaker 1: money is fading Texas. I'm not so sure about that.
1:07:29
Speaker 1: Maybe because of the price. I guess you have to
1:07:30
Speaker 1: pay a little bit of a tax for de Gram here.
1:07:33
Speaker 1: They're not as I thought there would be a higher
1:07:36
Speaker 1: price though, to be honest, there minus won forty something
1:07:39
Speaker 1: with de Gram against Bradish. I really thought Texas would
1:07:41
Speaker 1: be a higher price than that, especially given that everybody
1:07:44
Speaker 1: kind of knows Texas is the one team that's still
1:07:46
Speaker 1: playing for something. But seventy nine percent of tickets only
1:07:49
Speaker 1: sixty eight percent of the cash on Texas anyway, so
1:07:51
Speaker 1: the money is perceiving some value in Baltimore here, you know.
1:07:56
Speaker 1: I mean you're getting them at an underdog price and
1:07:58
Speaker 1: it's a low total, So so that is it's correlated.
1:08:02
Speaker 1: Probably if it's gonna be a low scoring game, Baltimore
1:08:05
Speaker 1: is more likely to kind of hang around, and maybe
1:08:06
Speaker 1: they do have the bullpen advantage there, so that might
1:08:09
Speaker 1: help out with some of their deficiencies they probably do
1:08:12
Speaker 1: have in the starting pitching, because I think Degram is
1:08:14
Speaker 1: obviously the better starter there. All right, but yeah, that
1:08:18
Speaker 1: was almost a play for me, mister Pinzy what's up.
1:08:21
Speaker 1: I thanks for hanging out all right, Colorado and Saint
1:08:26
Speaker 1: Louis No Cleveland and White Sox. Sorry, Yeah, we got
1:08:28
Speaker 1: this game right yesterday. Weird game. It was a bad
1:08:31
Speaker 1: spot for Chicago coming off that thirteen inning game against
1:08:34
Speaker 1: the Red Sox plus a return home spot, plus Cleveland
1:08:36
Speaker 1: had the better starter. And then the White Sox made
1:08:39
Speaker 1: a mistake. Like I said, I don't know what was
1:08:41
Speaker 1: going on with that. They made an extra mound visit
1:08:45
Speaker 1: and without realizing it in the first inning, I'm pretty sure,
1:08:48
Speaker 1: and that required them to remove Schultz from the game,
1:08:51
Speaker 1: but he started, so the game still counted for us
1:08:54
Speaker 1: and lucky because if I knew Schultz was gonna be
1:08:57
Speaker 1: out in the first inning, I still would have said
1:08:58
Speaker 1: play Cleveland obviously, because that would just mean you're pouring
1:09:02
Speaker 1: it on this already overworked White Sox bullpen. But anyway, yes,
1:09:06
Speaker 1: we got the win with the with the Indians yesterday,
1:09:09
Speaker 1: and the White Sox are gonna be somewhat in a
1:09:12
Speaker 1: bad bullpen state. You would think after yesterday the wunderable
1:09:15
Speaker 1: only using two guys though, so after Schultz was out
1:09:18
Speaker 1: of the game, I think they just I don't know
1:09:20
Speaker 1: what they did. They must have used some other starter
1:09:22
Speaker 1: here because Fedti didn't throw that many pitches, and FEddi
1:09:24
Speaker 1: did pitch a little bit in that Red Sox game too.
1:09:28
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know what the White Sox did,
1:09:29
Speaker 1: to be honest. They must have brought in one of
1:09:31
Speaker 1: their starters to actually kind of finish the game. They
1:09:34
Speaker 1: get them deep into that game, so they did kind
1:09:36
Speaker 1: of save their bullpen. They only use two guys there,
1:09:38
Speaker 1: so that's not too bad for the White Sox. Cleveland
1:09:41
Speaker 1: only is one guy though, so I don't know. I
1:09:43
Speaker 1: think Cleveland might have a little bit of a bullpen
1:09:45
Speaker 1: advantage here, although the White Sox had been a little
1:09:48
Speaker 1: bit better than them. The White Sox are thirteenth, Cleveland twentieth.
1:09:51
Speaker 1: White Sox do actually have a better bullpen Erray as well,
1:09:54
Speaker 1: but Cleveland has kind of been better for most of
1:09:56
Speaker 1: the season, so I'm not so sure about that. Maybe
1:09:59
Speaker 1: it's close as far as the bullpen scenario here, White
1:10:02
Speaker 1: Sox are the better offense. They're sixteenth, Cleveland twenty ninth.
1:10:05
Speaker 1: Cleveland still struggling offensively on the surface. In this game,
1:10:10
Speaker 1: Cleveland looks like they have a huge starting pitching advantage
1:10:12
Speaker 1: here with Gavin Williams. Williams is one of their best starters.
1:10:15
Speaker 1: He's got a three point five six ERA one point
1:10:18
Speaker 1: zero four whip. He's not quite as good on the
1:10:20
Speaker 1: road with a four point three to four road ray,
1:10:22
Speaker 1: but his road upon a batting average is really good
1:10:25
Speaker 1: two thirteen. He's kind of gotten unlucky, it looks like,
1:10:29
Speaker 1: with the home run ball on the road, and he's
1:10:32
Speaker 1: been striking out guys at one of the highest rates
1:10:34
Speaker 1: in baseball. He's got double digit strikeouts in five starts
1:10:37
Speaker 1: in a row. He might be he's probably the only
1:10:40
Speaker 1: guy that's done that this year, because pitchers just don't
1:10:42
Speaker 1: even stay in the game long enough now to do that.
1:10:44
Speaker 1: But Williams is doing that. He's striking out a ton
1:10:47
Speaker 1: of guys recently. He's not really allowing that many runs either. So, yeah,
1:10:51
Speaker 1: he's pitching really well here, and he's blowing guys away.
1:10:55
Speaker 1: Sounds hot. He's got a low hit rate. His walk
1:10:57
Speaker 1: rate is okay enough. I would say a home run
1:11:00
Speaker 1: rate is a little bit high because I think, you know,
1:11:03
Speaker 1: if he mislocates his fastballs a little bit and whatever,
1:11:06
Speaker 1: they can get jacked out of the yard. But usually
1:11:08
Speaker 1: he's causing guys to whiff one seventy eight strike one
1:11:12
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy eight strikeouts one hundred and thirty nine innings.
1:11:14
Speaker 1: That's a high strikeout rate there Williams against the White Sox,
1:11:18
Speaker 1: though he actually hasn't been good against them in the past.
1:11:22
Speaker 1: Forty at bats, three hundred average, eight sixteen ops, twelve
1:11:26
Speaker 1: six strikeout walk ratio. So those numbers are bad. And
1:11:29
Speaker 1: I think he has two starts against him his year,
1:11:30
Speaker 1: and one was bad and one was good. If I'm
1:11:33
Speaker 1: not mistaken, Yeah, he had a bad one at home,
1:11:36
Speaker 1: believing or not, and a bit of a better one
1:11:38
Speaker 1: on the road, which is where he is here. But yeah,
1:11:42
Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I don't know if I want
1:11:43
Speaker 1: to back Williams given that he usually isn't that good
1:11:45
Speaker 1: against the White Sox. But the White Socks is going
1:11:47
Speaker 1: with Anthony K. He's clearly not as good as Williams.
1:11:51
Speaker 1: Four point h one era. I think it's misrepresenting him.
1:11:54
Speaker 1: One point three to five whip is not really that good.
1:11:56
Speaker 1: Kay has been okay at home, went to four home. Yeah, race,
1:12:01
Speaker 1: he's been a little bit better at home. Pitched well
1:12:03
Speaker 1: last time out at Tampa Bay shut them out for
1:12:06
Speaker 1: six and a third inning, so kind of a surprisingly
1:12:08
Speaker 1: good start from him there. He hasn't allowed that many
1:12:11
Speaker 1: runs recently. But he's also not really going deep into
1:12:13
Speaker 1: most of his starts, so that's the thing he's really
1:12:16
Speaker 1: he's kind of going out there and he's not killing
1:12:17
Speaker 1: his team. He's keeping them in these games. But yeah,
1:12:20
Speaker 1: he's pitching with a lot of mediocrity. Let's say, which
1:12:23
Speaker 1: is better than being horrible. I guess his hit rate
1:12:26
Speaker 1: is mediocre. His walk rate, I would say his mediocre.
1:12:30
Speaker 1: His strike gout rated is not great, a little bit low, again, mediocrity.
1:12:34
Speaker 1: He's been good against Cleveland though, in twenty three at
1:12:37
Speaker 1: bat's not a huge sample, but one seventy four average
1:12:39
Speaker 1: allowed four forty three oh ps, so he actually has
1:12:42
Speaker 1: the better matchup numbers year. Hilariously, he pitched it twice
1:12:47
Speaker 1: against Cleveland this year. Once he went pretty deep into
1:12:49
Speaker 1: the game here at home, and he pitched well in
1:12:51
Speaker 1: that one. The other one he wasn't bad, but they
1:12:54
Speaker 1: kind of limited his pitches in the one at Cleveland.
1:12:56
Speaker 1: But he was kind of good in both of those outings.
1:13:00
Speaker 1: So what do we do with this game? I mean,
1:13:02
Speaker 1: it looks like it is kind of a bounce back spot,
1:13:04
Speaker 1: debatably for the White Sox because they lost in the
1:13:08
Speaker 1: return home spot yesterday. Maybe they will bounce back here.
1:13:11
Speaker 1: You're getting them as an underdog, uh And it kind
1:13:14
Speaker 1: of has to be that way because Cleveland is they
1:13:18
Speaker 1: definitely have the better starting pitcher generally here, But the
1:13:20
Speaker 1: matchup numbers kind of negate that a little bit minus
1:13:23
Speaker 1: won twenty something is the price on Cleveland. The money
1:13:25
Speaker 1: is playing Cleveland sixty two percent of tickets, ninety one
1:13:28
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on them. I mean, I see
1:13:30
Speaker 1: the argument for it. The argument is Williams is better
1:13:33
Speaker 1: than k which yes, I agree with that. But again,
1:13:36
Speaker 1: given what the matchup numbers look like, given that it
1:13:38
Speaker 1: might be a better situation for the White Sox here,
1:13:42
Speaker 1: maybe you could make the argument for grabbing the White
1:13:45
Speaker 1: Sox here as the underdog on the money line. I'm
1:13:48
Speaker 1: not going to do it, but you know, could could
1:13:50
Speaker 1: be actually be a bounce back from them. But both
1:13:52
Speaker 1: teams are going to be motivated because they're fighting for
1:13:54
Speaker 1: the division and whatever. All right, we have five games
1:13:58
Speaker 1: left to talk about. I do have one play a left,
1:14:01
Speaker 1: and I have one w NBA play as well. So
1:14:04
Speaker 1: I'll be back and talk about all that in a second. Yep, inside,
1:14:14
Speaker 1: I want to kill myself. We're on OHN seven run
1:14:18
Speaker 1: over the last two days after tonight it was just
1:14:20
Speaker 1: complete bullshit. So that's that's how I'm gonna start off
1:14:24
Speaker 1: this show. Horrible Sunday one and five. I don't even
1:14:27
Speaker 1: know what to tell you about that. I just don't
1:14:30
Speaker 1: want to do this anymore. I have never seen anything
1:14:33
Speaker 1: like this. Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses,
1:14:37
Speaker 1: not a good day at all, own four that I
1:14:41
Speaker 1: have not had a good season. Man with wookends the
1:14:45
Speaker 1: slump that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached
1:14:49
Speaker 1: a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my Bruins
1:14:53
Speaker 1: hat Man. I don't know what is going on with
1:14:55
Speaker 1: the Bruins, Archie. Is that what it is? I don't
1:14:58
Speaker 1: even know it's nine. I think who even knows? Man,
1:15:03
Speaker 1: I don't know what data is anymore. But I don't
1:15:05
Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man, back with you,
1:15:08
Speaker 1: the worst day that I could possibly have, Back with
1:15:11
Speaker 1: you as I always am until I die, at least
1:15:16
Speaker 1: oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did not go
1:15:19
Speaker 1: well for me. Own five, the worst month that I've
1:15:22
Speaker 1: ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I don't
1:15:25
Speaker 1: know what to even tell you about this anymore. The slump,
1:15:28
Speaker 1: the slump discontinues, the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
1:15:35
Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this
1:15:37
Speaker 1: point other than potentially end it all all right, Colorado
1:15:47
Speaker 1: Saint Louis. By the way, a lot of these games
1:15:50
Speaker 1: are on Fox. Baltimore, Texas, Cleveland, Chicago, Detroit, San Francisco
1:15:54
Speaker 1: are all on Fox, which I've for got to mention
1:15:56
Speaker 1: as in Boston or on Fox Sports One for whatever reason,
1:16:00
Speaker 1: I guess because the Red Sox are the major hype
1:16:02
Speaker 1: train right now. But you actually get two interesting young
1:16:06
Speaker 1: pitchers in that A's and Red Sox game. So there
1:16:08
Speaker 1: is that. What else? Oh? Yes, Colorado Saint Louis. Yes,
1:16:13
Speaker 1: Saint Louis won the game yesterday despite being in a
1:16:15
Speaker 1: return home spoting coming up beating the Yankees. I thought
1:16:18
Speaker 1: it wasn't a great spot for them, and they still
1:16:20
Speaker 1: won the game three to two. Low scoring in Saint Louis, Man,
1:16:25
Speaker 1: it's a pitcher friendly ballpark. These bullpens are both pretty bad, though.
1:16:29
Speaker 1: Saint Louis used four guys, Colorado used three, but I
1:16:33
Speaker 1: would not trust these bullpens. Colorado's twenty seventh. Saint Louis
1:16:37
Speaker 1: not much better at twenty second. Colorado's the better offense,
1:16:40
Speaker 1: their ranked fifth, although their offense might take a dip
1:16:43
Speaker 1: here in this stadium. Like I said yesterday, and it
1:16:45
Speaker 1: did happen yesterday, Saint Louis twenty fifth, tie with the Angels,
1:16:50
Speaker 1: tie with the Angels. I think Jordan Walker was out
1:16:52
Speaker 1: for a bit, but he is back for Saint Louis.
1:16:55
Speaker 1: He's their young up and coming bat there who I
1:16:58
Speaker 1: believe he won the home run derby right, so he
1:17:01
Speaker 1: was injured for a little bit, but he's back. On
1:17:04
Speaker 1: the surface, this looks like a pretty ugly pitching matchup.
1:17:07
Speaker 1: Kyle Freeland is pitching for Colorado. Obviously not good numbers
1:17:10
Speaker 1: here because he's a Colorado pitcher, a six point eight
1:17:13
Speaker 1: to one ARRA, one point four to nine whip. Somehow,
1:17:16
Speaker 1: he's worse on the road than he is a course
1:17:19
Speaker 1: field this year eight point twenty nine Rodi array really bad.
1:17:24
Speaker 1: He's not good on the road. He had a really
1:17:25
Speaker 1: good start last time out against Kansas City in course field,
1:17:29
Speaker 1: complete game, gave up one run and won the game
1:17:32
Speaker 1: against Kansas City. Really good start from him? Is that
1:17:35
Speaker 1: gonna continue? Uh No, I don't think so. I mean,
1:17:38
Speaker 1: he's bad on the road. He's generally not a good pitcher.
1:17:42
Speaker 1: You know. Kansas City is notorious for not being a
1:17:45
Speaker 1: good offense on the road, even though that was in
1:17:48
Speaker 1: course field. But Kansas City, as we know, was the
1:17:50
Speaker 1: one team besides the Red Sox to play an entire
1:17:53
Speaker 1: series of unders in the A's stadium this year. Freeland
1:17:58
Speaker 1: has a really high hit rate. He's way too hill.
1:18:00
Speaker 1: He allows a lot of home runs. He doesn't walk guys,
1:18:02
Speaker 1: but he's just he's throwing up bad in practice. Man,
1:18:05
Speaker 1: it's not good. And he doesn't really strike that many
1:18:07
Speaker 1: guys out either. Yeah, I don't trust him here, although
1:18:11
Speaker 1: his numbers Againt Saint Louis are actually good one ninety
1:18:14
Speaker 1: two average allowed, six forty five ohps, twenty six at
1:18:17
Speaker 1: bats five to one strike a walk ratio. So if
1:18:19
Speaker 1: there's gonna be another matchup where he does pitch well,
1:18:23
Speaker 1: it would be something like this where he draws a
1:18:25
Speaker 1: pretty weak offense that doesn't do well against him. Any
1:18:28
Speaker 1: pitcher friendly park, those things will at least help him
1:18:31
Speaker 1: a little bit. I suppose Matthew Libertore is pitching for
1:18:35
Speaker 1: Saint Louis here. He's not very good. A four point
1:18:37
Speaker 1: nine to seventy ra one point four to nine whip
1:18:40
Speaker 1: is definitely not good. He's slightly better at home, maybe
1:18:44
Speaker 1: four point eight home here. Really, I think for a
1:18:46
Speaker 1: lot of the season he wasn't as good at home.
1:18:48
Speaker 1: I don't remember, but he's not really that good. He
1:18:51
Speaker 1: had a really good outing last time out as well.
1:18:53
Speaker 1: He shut down Toronto for six shutout innings only line
1:18:56
Speaker 1: one hit. Really good outing from him. But is that
1:18:59
Speaker 1: going to continue? I would imagine not. I mean Toronto's
1:19:02
Speaker 1: a bad offense. The Rockies are gonna be a step
1:19:05
Speaker 1: up from that. He's got a high hit rate on
1:19:07
Speaker 1: the season. His walk rates not really that good. His
1:19:10
Speaker 1: strike gout rate is decent, kind of allows a lot
1:19:13
Speaker 1: of home runs as well. I don't like these pitchers here.
1:19:16
Speaker 1: Man and his numbers against the Rockies are really bad.
1:19:19
Speaker 1: And eighteen at bats It's not a huge sample, but
1:19:21
Speaker 1: three eighty nine average allowed, one thy thirty two oh ps. Yeah,
1:19:25
Speaker 1: that's bad. There's an argument for the Rockies in this game.
1:19:29
Speaker 1: I would it would It would have to be a
1:19:30
Speaker 1: first five play obviously, and the money is coming in
1:19:33
Speaker 1: on the Rockies. Freeland has the better matchup numbers, as
1:19:36
Speaker 1: you just saw, eighty five percent of the tickets around
1:19:38
Speaker 1: Saint Louis, sixty six percent of the cash on Colorado.
1:19:42
Speaker 1: Nobody's gonna want to play the Rockies, and basically like
1:19:44
Speaker 1: any scenario, and the line has legitimately moved towards Colorado,
1:19:48
Speaker 1: so there's real money coming in on Colorado here. Saint
1:19:51
Speaker 1: Louis dropped from minus one sixty three to minus one
1:19:54
Speaker 1: forty eight basically, so yeah, it looks like it's a
1:19:57
Speaker 1: legitimate play on Colorado. I would say a and if
1:20:00
Speaker 1: you do that, I would probably take like the half
1:20:02
Speaker 1: run in the first five. Definitely don't factor in their bullpen, like,
1:20:06
Speaker 1: do not include their bullpen. And I think the other
1:20:09
Speaker 1: way to play this is probably to go over the total.
1:20:11
Speaker 1: Though I know I just said that it's a pitcher
1:20:14
Speaker 1: friendly ballpark, but this looks like a pretty bad starting
1:20:17
Speaker 1: pitching matchup. I mean, the bullpens aren't really that good either,
1:20:20
Speaker 1: So this game, I think an over does make some sense.
1:20:23
Speaker 1: It's eight and a half right now, so it dropped
1:20:25
Speaker 1: off that key number nine early. But the money looks
1:20:28
Speaker 1: like it is coming in on the over sixty six
1:20:30
Speaker 1: percent of tickets eighty eight percent of the cash on
1:20:32
Speaker 1: the over. So I think those are the options in
1:20:34
Speaker 1: that game. My preference would probably be over out of
1:20:38
Speaker 1: the two, but I do see the argument for Colorado.
1:20:42
Speaker 1: All Right, all games should we had TV, will just
1:20:48
Speaker 1: use the internet, man, if you know what I mean,
1:20:52
Speaker 1: you can watch any MLB game all right, Detroit at
1:20:56
Speaker 1: San Francisco. I was surprised that San Francisco won yesterday.
1:21:00
Speaker 1: They were going with like a bullpen game. They want
1:21:02
Speaker 1: to announcing bru Baker as they're starting yesterday against Keener
1:21:05
Speaker 1: Montero and against the Tigers team that's actually had a
1:21:08
Speaker 1: good season and seems to still be playing with a
1:21:11
Speaker 1: lot of motivation even though they traded away guys at
1:21:14
Speaker 1: the trade deadline. Like I said, it's not out of
1:21:17
Speaker 1: the question that the Tigers make the playoffs, and you
1:21:19
Speaker 1: could bet that at like five to one right now
1:21:22
Speaker 1: or something, Tigers to make the playoffs. They have two
1:21:24
Speaker 1: pass to get there, too. They could get a wildcard spot,
1:21:27
Speaker 1: although right now it's looking like it would have to
1:21:29
Speaker 1: be the third wildcard spot because it looks very likely
1:21:33
Speaker 1: that the top two wildcards in the AL are going
1:21:35
Speaker 1: to be coming from the AL least, and I would
1:21:38
Speaker 1: say it's going to be the Red Sox and the
1:21:40
Speaker 1: Rays to be honest, Like, I still think the Yankees
1:21:42
Speaker 1: are gonna win that division. Maybe not, but either way
1:21:46
Speaker 1: you look at it. Yet, there's basically one wildcard spot
1:21:49
Speaker 1: that's really kind of up for grabs in the AL
1:21:51
Speaker 1: right now, and I think Detroit might be able to
1:21:53
Speaker 1: get it. I mean I don't think their competition for
1:21:55
Speaker 1: it is really that impressive. So yeah, it's interesting. It
1:22:01
Speaker 1: would make like I said yesterday, it would makes sense
1:22:03
Speaker 1: that an ale Central team that traded away at the
1:22:06
Speaker 1: trade deadline would sneak into the playoffs like Cleveland did
1:22:09
Speaker 1: last year. Detroit could still win their division too, so
1:22:11
Speaker 1: they have another path to get there as well. They're
1:22:13
Speaker 1: not completely out of that running yet either, Like do
1:22:18
Speaker 1: you really think the Twins are actually gonna do you
1:22:21
Speaker 1: really like, are the Twins really competition to win that division?
1:22:25
Speaker 1: I don't think so. Cleveland is because they're pitching is good.
1:22:28
Speaker 1: I don't really think the White Sox are either though. Man,
1:22:31
Speaker 1: the White Sox are just young, like inexperienced. They're pitching
1:22:34
Speaker 1: isn't good enough in my opinion, so I think it's
1:22:37
Speaker 1: either gonna be the Tigers or the Indians that win
1:22:39
Speaker 1: that division. Anyway, I'm rambling, but some future stuff there.
1:22:42
Speaker 1: I'm surprised that San Francisco won yesterday. We're gonna see
1:22:46
Speaker 1: what happens today in this one. I don't like San
1:22:49
Speaker 1: Francisco's bullpen. They use a bunch of guys. They use
1:22:52
Speaker 1: five guys just today. I think Detroit has a bullpen
1:22:54
Speaker 1: ed year. They only use two guys, so they're a
1:22:56
Speaker 1: more rested at bullpen here. Detroit is fifteenth and bullpen here.
1:23:02
Speaker 1: Giants have struggled their twenty fourth, so yeah, Detroit should
1:23:06
Speaker 1: have a bullpen edge year. I think they have the
1:23:08
Speaker 1: better offense as well. Detroit is tenth right now, which
1:23:11
Speaker 1: is not bad, and San Francisco fourteenth, tied with the Yankees.
1:23:14
Speaker 1: But like I said, their numbers are being skewed by
1:23:16
Speaker 1: some kind of outlier results and I don't think they're
1:23:20
Speaker 1: that good. Do we really want to come in and
1:23:22
Speaker 1: back Detroit here? Though? With Jackson job starting is that
1:23:26
Speaker 1: how he pronounced his name? I remember him from last
1:23:28
Speaker 1: year and I don't know what to expect out of him.
1:23:31
Speaker 1: Man four point two two ERA last year. This is
1:23:34
Speaker 1: all last year. One point four to nine whip was
1:23:37
Speaker 1: not good though, But he hasn't pitched yet this year,
1:23:39
Speaker 1: so he's pitched in the majors since twenty twenty four.
1:23:42
Speaker 1: He had a couple of relief appearances back then. Then
1:23:45
Speaker 1: last year he was a starter for Detroit and he
1:23:48
Speaker 1: walked away too many guys. That was his issue. He
1:23:51
Speaker 1: didn't really have a huge strikeout rate, but his main
1:23:55
Speaker 1: issue was the walks man, So I think he's a
1:23:58
Speaker 1: mediocre pitcher. He doesn't have great strikeout stuff, but if
1:24:01
Speaker 1: he was able to hold guys off the base pass
1:24:03
Speaker 1: that would be nice. If you stop walking guys, he'd
1:24:05
Speaker 1: be decent. The Giants have not done well against them, particularly,
1:24:09
Speaker 1: they have four guys who have faced him seven at
1:24:11
Speaker 1: bats one forty three average, five forty three oh ps,
1:24:14
Speaker 1: two strikeouts, three walks. So he does draw a decent
1:24:17
Speaker 1: match up here, I think against an offense that I
1:24:19
Speaker 1: consider to be pretty weak. And they traded a Ray
1:24:21
Speaker 1: away a Rayas at the trade deadline, which should help
1:24:25
Speaker 1: Philadelphia offensively a bit. By the way, and this is
1:24:29
Speaker 1: a picture friendly park as well. So this is not
1:24:31
Speaker 1: the worst matchup I would say for job Joby Landon
1:24:37
Speaker 1: Raup is pitching for the Giants. He's alright, he just
1:24:40
Speaker 1: he walks too many guys, dude. He's got decent strikeout
1:24:43
Speaker 1: stuff and he's not a guy that's like a flamethrower.
1:24:46
Speaker 1: Like he throws some like really really crazy breaking stuff
1:24:49
Speaker 1: and gets guys to swing and miss at that shit
1:24:53
Speaker 1: like just curb balls to just dive out of the
1:24:55
Speaker 1: zone and stuff like that. Four point three four, one
1:24:58
Speaker 1: point two nine whip the mediocre stuff there. He's slightly
1:25:02
Speaker 1: better at home four point twenty five Home. He ra
1:25:06
Speaker 1: been walking a ton of guys though, like I said,
1:25:07
Speaker 1: three or more walks and three of his last four
1:25:10
Speaker 1: outings that's a concerned Last time out, he struggled through
1:25:13
Speaker 1: his outing at San Diego. That's not a good sign,
1:25:16
Speaker 1: not a good offense in San Diego. And it was
1:25:18
Speaker 1: a pitcher friendly park in San Diego. Yeah, he's been
1:25:21
Speaker 1: pretty bad over his last couple of starts. He's got
1:25:23
Speaker 1: a pretty good hit rate, though he's hard to hit.
1:25:25
Speaker 1: He has a pretty good strikeout rate, gets a lot
1:25:28
Speaker 1: of ground balls, but he walks a ton of guys again,
1:25:31
Speaker 1: yet another guy where that's the issue, way too many walks.
1:25:35
Speaker 1: He's got to get that down. And he's not been
1:25:37
Speaker 1: good against Detroit so far, not a huge sample, six
1:25:40
Speaker 1: hitters of face and him eleven at bats, but they
1:25:42
Speaker 1: have a three sixty four average, nine to sixteen oh ps,
1:25:45
Speaker 1: two to two strikeout walk ratio. So yeah, I mean,
1:25:51
Speaker 1: it looks like Detroit might actually have the edge here.
1:25:53
Speaker 1: Maybe they're in bounceback mode. They've been playing with motivation
1:25:57
Speaker 1: despite being sellers at the trade deadline, but the money
1:26:00
Speaker 1: is fading them sixty percent of tickets, fifty nine percent
1:26:03
Speaker 1: of the cash on Detroit. The public is gonna want
1:26:05
Speaker 1: nothing to do with San Francisco because the record is bad,
1:26:08
Speaker 1: but there is still like a motivational thing here. Man
1:26:12
Speaker 1: with Detroit looks like they're still playing for something and
1:26:15
Speaker 1: San Francisco is not, even though both teams sold to
1:26:18
Speaker 1: the trade deadline. San Francisco is just done for the season.
1:26:21
Speaker 1: But they did win yesterday, so yes, I know they're
1:26:24
Speaker 1: not just like throwing games, although you know, I do
1:26:27
Speaker 1: think that some games are rigged in certain ways. Now
1:26:30
Speaker 1: the money line has flipped towards Detroit. It opened with
1:26:34
Speaker 1: San Francisco kind of being a slight favorite, and now
1:26:36
Speaker 1: Detroit is a slight favorite here. Money is also backing
1:26:39
Speaker 1: the over pretty strong at over eight here. I could
1:26:42
Speaker 1: see the argument for that. I mean, you get two
1:26:44
Speaker 1: guys that are just kind of out of control as
1:26:47
Speaker 1: far as they're pitching, so maybe there is an argument
1:26:50
Speaker 1: for the over here. It's not gonna be a game
1:26:53
Speaker 1: that I want to get involved in. Man. I was
1:26:54
Speaker 1: kind of leaning towards Detroit again there, but the money
1:26:58
Speaker 1: has me a pretty disa aided by that as well,
1:27:01
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm not doing anything with that. Houston and
1:27:03
Speaker 1: San Diego. Houston won the game six to three yesterday.
1:27:07
Speaker 1: I mentioned that I leaned Houston in the game yesterday.
1:27:10
Speaker 1: They had a rest advantage in the game yesterday, and
1:27:13
Speaker 1: I wasn't really sold on Robbie Ray making his debut
1:27:16
Speaker 1: for San Diego and he wasn't that good in that game.
1:27:19
Speaker 1: San Diego does have a good bullpen, these two guys
1:27:22
Speaker 1: out of the bullpens, they do probably have a bullpen
1:27:24
Speaker 1: advantage here. Houston used five. That's not great. San Diego's
1:27:28
Speaker 1: ranking eighth in bullpen right now, but I think they're
1:27:30
Speaker 1: like a top five bullpen. Probably Houston has been pretty
1:27:35
Speaker 1: good recently there. Eh Ray is below four, which is
1:27:37
Speaker 1: crazy given how bad they were at the beginning of
1:27:39
Speaker 1: the season. Houston's tenth in the bullpen now, so they're
1:27:42
Speaker 1: by no means bad, but I think San Diego's is better.
1:27:46
Speaker 1: Houston is the better offense. Houston is sixth. Uh San
1:27:49
Speaker 1: Diego is twenty fourth. Houston's going with Peter Lambert here.
1:27:54
Speaker 1: Lambert's had a good season for them, man a three
1:27:56
Speaker 1: point oh six ERA, one point one to three whip.
1:27:59
Speaker 1: He's a pretty good on the road as well, two
1:28:01
Speaker 1: point eight to nine rodio rate, kind of similar to
1:28:03
Speaker 1: both home and away. He's still pitching well, and with
1:28:06
Speaker 1: him you got to worry about the innings pitch, but
1:28:08
Speaker 1: not really yet. He's barely over one hundred, so I
1:28:10
Speaker 1: wouldn't be that worried about that yet either. He's allowed
1:28:13
Speaker 1: two or fewer earned runs in every start going back
1:28:15
Speaker 1: through the beginning of July, and going back through the
1:28:18
Speaker 1: beginning of June, he only allowed more than that one time,
1:28:22
Speaker 1: so going back through his last start in May. In fact,
1:28:25
Speaker 1: he's got a low hit rate here. His walk rate
1:28:27
Speaker 1: is okay, strike out rate is right around one per inning,
1:28:30
Speaker 1: which is pretty good. So yeah, he's I think he's
1:28:32
Speaker 1: been pretty legit. He's been good. However, San Diego's seeing
1:28:36
Speaker 1: a decent amount of him because he pitched for Colorado
1:28:39
Speaker 1: and I would take this with a little bit of
1:28:40
Speaker 1: a grain of salt because some of these numbers probably
1:28:42
Speaker 1: were accumulated incourse field, which did not go well for him,
1:28:45
Speaker 1: and he seems to be a way better pitcher now.
1:28:48
Speaker 1: But this San Diego lineup has gotten the best of him,
1:28:51
Speaker 1: and it's a decent sample. Forty six at bats three
1:28:54
Speaker 1: ninety one average, eleven h two ops four to three
1:28:57
Speaker 1: strike out walk ratios. So that has been concerned about
1:29:00
Speaker 1: Lambert here. This might be one of the lesser matchups
1:29:03
Speaker 1: for him here, like one of the worst matchups he
1:29:05
Speaker 1: could draw here. San Diego is a pitcher friendly park
1:29:08
Speaker 1: still though, but San Diego is going with Michael King,
1:29:10
Speaker 1: who is one of the only good starters they have.
1:29:14
Speaker 1: Although they did pick I think myz is going to
1:29:15
Speaker 1: turn it around again though after his first start was bad.
1:29:18
Speaker 1: I thought that was a good pick up for San Diego.
1:29:20
Speaker 1: King has been pretty steady for them though, three point
1:29:23
Speaker 1: four or five y Ray one point two whip, although
1:29:25
Speaker 1: the advanced analytics guys have some issues with him because
1:29:28
Speaker 1: he doesn't strike guys out, but he's been solid for
1:29:30
Speaker 1: multiple years at this point. He's been pretty good at
1:29:32
Speaker 1: home three point three to six homey array. He's he's
1:29:37
Speaker 1: just pitching pretty well, man. I mean, I don't really
1:29:40
Speaker 1: have many many negative things here to say about him.
1:29:44
Speaker 1: He's had kind of like a couple of bad starts
1:29:45
Speaker 1: in here, but for the most part, he's been good.
1:29:47
Speaker 1: He's hard to hit. He has a really low hit rate.
1:29:50
Speaker 1: His walk rade is a little bit high, so that's
1:29:51
Speaker 1: a little bit of a concern with him, and his
1:29:53
Speaker 1: strike up rate isn't really that high. The walks are
1:29:55
Speaker 1: kind of the main issue with him, man, and that
1:29:57
Speaker 1: really hasn't been as much of an issue with him
1:29:59
Speaker 1: in the I don't think he's been good against Houston
1:30:02
Speaker 1: in his career though, in eighty one at bats a
1:30:04
Speaker 1: lot of at bats one eighty five average, five thirteen
1:30:07
Speaker 1: oh ps, twenty eight to six strikeout walk ratio. And
1:30:11
Speaker 1: I thought San Diego was in kind of a negative
1:30:12
Speaker 1: spot yesterday they were returning home from Arizona, and that
1:30:16
Speaker 1: was a big series against Arizona. Not really a long trip,
1:30:19
Speaker 1: but still maybe San Diego's in a little bit of
1:30:21
Speaker 1: a bounce back here. I think I would lean San
1:30:24
Speaker 1: Diego on the money line here full game. I think
1:30:26
Speaker 1: they get the bullpen edge here as well. The matchup
1:30:29
Speaker 1: numbers are indicating towards King here sixty percent of ticket,
1:30:33
Speaker 1: sixty three percent of the cash on them. Not really
1:30:35
Speaker 1: a strong market read coming in here. There is a
1:30:37
Speaker 1: read towards the over at eight. I don't really have
1:30:41
Speaker 1: an opinion on that. When I first looked at this
1:30:42
Speaker 1: pitching matchup, I was thinking an under, you know what
1:30:45
Speaker 1: I mean, because you have two decent bullpends here and
1:30:47
Speaker 1: two I think decent starters. So my thought was under,
1:30:51
Speaker 1: and I probably I kind of still lean towards the
1:30:53
Speaker 1: under in that game as well. And it's a picture
1:30:54
Speaker 1: friendly park, but I think San Diego might be the
1:30:57
Speaker 1: way to really lean in that game. All right. Dodge
1:31:00
Speaker 1: was in Arizona. Dodgers have lost seven games in a row. Man.
1:31:04
Speaker 1: The Dodgers were winning the game in the ninth inning
1:31:06
Speaker 1: last night, and that was the first time all season
1:31:08
Speaker 1: the Dodgers lost a game that they were winning in
1:31:10
Speaker 1: the ninth inning. I believe they were sixty five and
1:31:13
Speaker 1: zero when winning in the ninth inning, so most of
1:31:17
Speaker 1: their wins factor into that. That was the first time
1:31:21
Speaker 1: they blew a game in the ninth inning all year.
1:31:23
Speaker 1: Arizona won the game four to three. Really ridiculous. If
1:31:27
Speaker 1: LA loses this game today with Yamamoto on the mound
1:31:30
Speaker 1: when they have an actual good starter on the mound,
1:31:32
Speaker 1: there's something wrong here, you know what I mean. They
1:31:35
Speaker 1: have to do something here to stop the bleeding. Like
1:31:37
Speaker 1: I know, they had a huge lead in the division.
1:31:40
Speaker 1: They're gonna win the division anyway, but they got to
1:31:42
Speaker 1: stop this bleeding. Man, they don't want to give Arizona
1:31:45
Speaker 1: a sense of hope here because Arizona is in second
1:31:48
Speaker 1: place in this division and they're I think only about
1:31:51
Speaker 1: seven games out now Arizona, maybe even less than that.
1:31:54
Speaker 1: Arizona used four guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Dodgers
1:31:58
Speaker 1: used three. I think the Dodgers are the lightly better
1:32:00
Speaker 1: bullpen even though they're ranked twelve and their whip isn't
1:32:03
Speaker 1: really that great. Arizona's sixth Arizona's era is not considerably worse,
1:32:09
Speaker 1: but worse, and I don't think either or as good
1:32:11
Speaker 1: as where they're ranked there and whip. The Dodgers obviously
1:32:14
Speaker 1: have an offensive edge. They're number one, and their offense
1:32:17
Speaker 1: has been good on the road this year, although not yesterday,
1:32:20
Speaker 1: Arizona's twentieth offensively tied with Baltimore. Yoshinoba Yamamoto is pitching
1:32:26
Speaker 1: for the Dodgers. Like I said, he's gotta be the
1:32:29
Speaker 1: one to come in and stop the bleeding man. I mean,
1:32:31
Speaker 1: he's a World Series MVP at this point. He's had
1:32:33
Speaker 1: a great season here two point seven to six ERA
1:32:36
Speaker 1: point eighty eight whip. He's even better on the road,
1:32:39
Speaker 1: by the way, two point one to seven ROADYRRA. I
1:32:42
Speaker 1: don't think he's gonna pitch poorly here obviously, but the
1:32:45
Speaker 1: Dodgers' offense is gonna have to kind of do something
1:32:48
Speaker 1: here to get them this win as well. It can't
1:32:50
Speaker 1: just be Yamamoto, but he's been good. He pitches deep
1:32:53
Speaker 1: into games. He's one of the only guys that consistently
1:32:56
Speaker 1: goes deep into outings. That's just what he does. He's
1:32:59
Speaker 1: got a low hit rate, low walk rate, strike out
1:33:01
Speaker 1: rate isn't that high, but it's not really a concern
1:33:04
Speaker 1: with him because he's just a really good pitcher man.
1:33:06
Speaker 1: He just doesn't allow much of anything, and he's good
1:33:09
Speaker 1: against Arizona and one hundred and three at bats, a
1:33:11
Speaker 1: big sample, thirty to eight strike out walk ration, one
1:33:15
Speaker 1: ninety four average, five eighty two ops. Everything looks good
1:33:18
Speaker 1: for him here. Brandon Fott is pitching for Arizona, though,
1:33:21
Speaker 1: and something's gonna have to give here because one streak
1:33:25
Speaker 1: has to end here either the Dodgers. Well, actually no,
1:33:29
Speaker 1: both streaks could continue. What am I saying? Either both
1:33:32
Speaker 1: streaks are gonna end right here or both streaks are
1:33:34
Speaker 1: gonna continue, because we have the Dodgers on a seven
1:33:36
Speaker 1: game losing streak and we have Arizona on a seven
1:33:40
Speaker 1: game winning streak with Fot starting. So if the Dodgers win,
1:33:45
Speaker 1: both of those streaks are gonna get busted. And you
1:33:47
Speaker 1: know me, I like to bet on streak busters like that,
1:33:50
Speaker 1: but I I can't do it here because the price
1:33:52
Speaker 1: is way too high on the Dodgers. But Fot, I mean,
1:33:55
Speaker 1: he's also turned it around since they send him to
1:33:58
Speaker 1: the Miners. He's been good since they back up. Overall,
1:34:01
Speaker 1: he has a three point six to six ERA one
1:34:03
Speaker 1: point two to six whips, so his season long numbers
1:34:06
Speaker 1: have gotten way better. With this turnaround that he's had.
1:34:09
Speaker 1: He's been worst ray wise at home, four point one
1:34:13
Speaker 1: to seven home he array, but his opponent batting average
1:34:15
Speaker 1: is lower at home, so it's kind of been the
1:34:17
Speaker 1: home run ball that's skewing those numbers a little bit.
1:34:21
Speaker 1: And yeah, his home run issues, he's had issues with
1:34:24
Speaker 1: the home runs this year, but after he allowed one
1:34:27
Speaker 1: in his return from the Miners, he hasn't allowed a
1:34:29
Speaker 1: home run since then. And he's mostly faced bad offenses.
1:34:33
Speaker 1: I will give you that. He did face the Dodgers
1:34:35
Speaker 1: in there though, and he did reasonably well against the
1:34:37
Speaker 1: Dodgers in that mix too, although mostly he faced bad
1:34:40
Speaker 1: offenses except for Dodgers in Pittsburgh. But again, like I said,
1:34:44
Speaker 1: he's been good since coming back up. Arizona's undefeated in
1:34:47
Speaker 1: his starts as he's come back up seven wins in
1:34:50
Speaker 1: a row. I'm pretty sure is what that is. His
1:34:52
Speaker 1: hit rate is now below one per inning, so that's
1:34:54
Speaker 1: all right. His walk rate's not too bad. His strike
1:34:57
Speaker 1: out rate is still low. He doesn't strike guys out,
1:34:59
Speaker 1: but obviously he's turned to season around. He's in way
1:35:02
Speaker 1: better for him right now. However, the Dodgers do usually
1:35:05
Speaker 1: get to him. They have one hundred and fifty nine
1:35:06
Speaker 1: at bats, two ninety six average, eight thirty six ops,
1:35:10
Speaker 1: thirty one to nine a strikeout walk ratio. So why
1:35:14
Speaker 1: am I not gonna play the Dodgers here? I mean,
1:35:16
Speaker 1: I like the Dodgers in this game. I think they're
1:35:17
Speaker 1: gonna win, but you're laying minus one seventy with them
1:35:21
Speaker 1: basically here. I don't like the price, and I don't
1:35:23
Speaker 1: really want to fade what Fott has been doing recently.
1:35:27
Speaker 1: Ninety one percent of tickets, ninety two percent of the
1:35:29
Speaker 1: cash on the Dodgers. So they're a heavily public side,
1:35:33
Speaker 1: and yes, they should win. I think they have the edge,
1:35:35
Speaker 1: especially in the starting pitching. Here. You have to lay
1:35:38
Speaker 1: like a run line with the Dodgers if you do
1:35:40
Speaker 1: want to play them. It's not out of the question.
1:35:42
Speaker 1: I mean, you're gonna get all nine innings of at
1:35:44
Speaker 1: bats if you're gonna play the run line in the
1:35:46
Speaker 1: full game or whatever. You could limit it to the
1:35:48
Speaker 1: first five and avoid you know, the bullpen scenario where
1:35:51
Speaker 1: it's not clear which team has the better bullpen here
1:35:54
Speaker 1: and just go with Yamamoto to I'll pitch Fot. That's
1:35:57
Speaker 1: a consideration in this game as well, so way of
1:36:00
Speaker 1: playing the Dodgers makes sense. I was wrong about them
1:36:02
Speaker 1: going over their team total yesterday that it was a
1:36:04
Speaker 1: low scoring game. The other way that I was thinking
1:36:08
Speaker 1: about this game when I first saw the pitching matchup,
1:36:10
Speaker 1: I was thinking under because Fot has been so good recently.
1:36:14
Speaker 1: I mean, he hasn't been like dominant or anything like that,
1:36:17
Speaker 1: but he's definitely been way better and Yamamoto's very good,
1:36:20
Speaker 1: so it looked like an under to me. The totals
1:36:23
Speaker 1: at eight and a half. The money is coming in
1:36:25
Speaker 1: on the under fifty four tickets eighty seven percent of
1:36:27
Speaker 1: the cash on the under. But I do have my
1:36:29
Speaker 1: concerns about FOT not having a good history against LA,
1:36:33
Speaker 1: so I think LA is still probably the better way
1:36:35
Speaker 1: to look at that game. But you gotta lay like
1:36:37
Speaker 1: a run line with it, and I'm yeah, I'm just
1:36:39
Speaker 1: not gonna do it as a heavy road favorite. That's
1:36:43
Speaker 1: just way too public. Last game that means is my
1:36:46
Speaker 1: last play. So I'm bookending the day with the two plays.
1:36:48
Speaker 1: I have a play in the first game of the
1:36:50
Speaker 1: day and the last game of the day, so they're
1:36:52
Speaker 1: both gonna be isolated. Let's do this and I think
1:37:01
Speaker 1: people are not gonna like this. I don't think anybody's
1:37:03
Speaker 1: gonna want this. We're gonna take the Seattle Mariners on
1:37:05
Speaker 1: the money line here against Tampa Bay. Something's got to
1:37:08
Speaker 1: give here, man. I know Seattle's been very bad offensively
1:37:11
Speaker 1: this year, but I think the pitching matchup favors them here.
1:37:14
Speaker 1: They lost again yesterday. I think they're gonna be in
1:37:17
Speaker 1: bounce back mode here.
1:37:18
Speaker 3: Man.
1:37:18
Speaker 1: They had to face Rasmus in yesterday. They're not facing
1:37:20
Speaker 1: him today, so they get a Tampa Bay is having
1:37:23
Speaker 1: a downgrade with they're starting pitching here. At the very least.
1:37:26
Speaker 1: Seattle got embarrassed in their series against the Tigers. I
1:37:29
Speaker 1: know they've been horrible offensively recently. I get it, and
1:37:32
Speaker 1: this is a pitcher friendly ballpark, but I think Seattle's
1:37:37
Speaker 1: pitching might be able to get them some of the
1:37:38
Speaker 1: way here too. I think they're gonna win this game.
1:37:41
Speaker 1: I still don't think Seattle's as bad as they look,
1:37:44
Speaker 1: and they gotta have more motivation here, man than Tampa
1:37:47
Speaker 1: at this point. I mean, Tampa they have some decent
1:37:49
Speaker 1: padding in the Ale East right now. Tampa Bay is
1:37:52
Speaker 1: obviously gonna make the playoffs. Seattle's like fighting for their
1:37:55
Speaker 1: lives to stay in the playoff race here, either as
1:37:58
Speaker 1: a wild card, which I think might be out of
1:37:59
Speaker 1: the question at this point, or they're gonna have to
1:38:02
Speaker 1: win their division probably now. One thing that does help
1:38:06
Speaker 1: here is that Tampa Bay is not good on the road.
1:38:08
Speaker 1: They're way better at home, and with yesterday's win, they
1:38:11
Speaker 1: just pulled to five hundred on the road, so they've
1:38:13
Speaker 1: been a losing team on the road all season. Seattle
1:38:16
Speaker 1: is better at home. Seattle's a losing team on the season,
1:38:19
Speaker 1: but they're better at home, so the home road splits
1:38:21
Speaker 1: for the teams do favorite Seattle here. Seattle obviously doesn't
1:38:25
Speaker 1: have the better hitting. I'm not gonna try to claim
1:38:27
Speaker 1: that they do. That's their one disadvantage here, but I
1:38:29
Speaker 1: don't think Tampa Bay is like any lead offense by
1:38:32
Speaker 1: any means. Seattle is the better bullpen in my opinion,
1:38:35
Speaker 1: these three guys yesterday. Tampa Bay did have to save
1:38:38
Speaker 1: the game yesterday, and they used three guys as well,
1:38:41
Speaker 1: but they had they were in a save situation. I'm
1:38:44
Speaker 1: pretty sure yesterday they must because Seattle's the home team,
1:38:48
Speaker 1: so the road team can't have a walkoff win is
1:38:51
Speaker 1: what I mean. Tampa Bay is ranked number two in
1:38:54
Speaker 1: bullpen now, but I don't think that's accurate. Their ERRA
1:38:57
Speaker 1: is a lot higher than a lot of these other teams,
1:38:59
Speaker 1: so I think like a top ten bullpen probably, but
1:39:02
Speaker 1: not number two. Seattle's ranked seventeenth, but their ERA is
1:39:05
Speaker 1: better than Tampa Bay is. Is just their whip is worse,
1:39:09
Speaker 1: and whip is an indicator of something. But I don't
1:39:11
Speaker 1: think there's much of a gap here between these bullpens,
1:39:13
Speaker 1: and I actually think Seattle's might be slightly better, So
1:39:17
Speaker 1: I'm gonna leave them in the equation here, though if
1:39:19
Speaker 1: you wanted to go first five with this, you could
1:39:21
Speaker 1: do that as well. I think Seattle's pitching starting pitching
1:39:26
Speaker 1: might get us deeper into this game too, though we'll
1:39:28
Speaker 1: talk about that in a minute. Yes, I know Seattle's
1:39:30
Speaker 1: offense is ass. They're twenty eighth. Speaking of ass, Big
1:39:34
Speaker 1: Dumper has been the huge problem. What is going on
1:39:36
Speaker 1: with him? Cal rawling He goes from being MVP to
1:39:39
Speaker 1: being one of the worst hitters in baseball. It makes
1:39:43
Speaker 1: no sense, Like you think that, Okay, he's not gonna
1:39:46
Speaker 1: have another MVP caliber season. Fine, he's still got to
1:39:49
Speaker 1: be a good hitter, like, I don't know what's going on.
1:39:51
Speaker 1: Seattle has some talented hitters and I just don't know
1:39:54
Speaker 1: what's going on with them. Tampa Bay has ranked ninth,
1:39:56
Speaker 1: and they do have kem and Arrow, who is in
1:39:58
Speaker 1: the MVP running right now, so he Tampa Bay does
1:40:01
Speaker 1: have some good hitters there. Tampa Bay is the better offense,
1:40:04
Speaker 1: no doubt about that. But I think we have a
1:40:06
Speaker 1: starting pitching edge here. Grifvid Jacks is pitching for Tampa Bay.
1:40:10
Speaker 1: He's got decent numbers three point sixty three e RA
1:40:13
Speaker 1: one point two to one within, but he is still
1:40:14
Speaker 1: a converted reliever here. Man Tampa Bay gets the most
1:40:17
Speaker 1: out of their pitching, that's true, but we're not talking
1:40:20
Speaker 1: about girafspus in here. Jacks has not been as good
1:40:23
Speaker 1: on the road four point h six ROADYRA. So Tampa
1:40:26
Speaker 1: Bay is a team and Jacks both have not been
1:40:29
Speaker 1: as good on the road. He's his opponent batting average
1:40:31
Speaker 1: goes up to two seventy one on the road, so
1:40:33
Speaker 1: you could definitely fade him when he's on the road.
1:40:36
Speaker 1: He did pitch well last time out at home. He
1:40:37
Speaker 1: pitched He's had three good starts in a row, that's true,
1:40:41
Speaker 1: had kind of a struggle against the Red Sox prior
1:40:44
Speaker 1: to that. He did pitch against Seattle back on July
1:40:47
Speaker 1: eleventh at home, so where Tampa is better, and he
1:40:50
Speaker 1: was good in that start, but he only lasted five
1:40:52
Speaker 1: innings and he walked three guys, so he got a
1:40:55
Speaker 1: little bit lucky that he didn't allow more than one
1:40:56
Speaker 1: run there. And he is kind of on a pitch
1:40:59
Speaker 1: count here, So Timpa Bay is possibly gonna be the
1:41:03
Speaker 1: first team to dip into their bullpen here. They're letting
1:41:05
Speaker 1: Jacks go about like five innings exactly, so if they
1:41:09
Speaker 1: go to the bullpen earlier, that might help us out
1:41:11
Speaker 1: here as well. Jacks does have a low hit rate
1:41:13
Speaker 1: on the season, his walk rate isn't too bad either.
1:41:16
Speaker 1: His strike out rate is actually good, so yes, his
1:41:18
Speaker 1: numbers are actually pretty good across the board here. But
1:41:23
Speaker 1: against Seattle generally, he has not done well. In forty
1:41:27
Speaker 1: three at bats, they have a three forty nine average
1:41:29
Speaker 1: against him. Eleven hundred ohps. Big Dumper has done well
1:41:33
Speaker 1: against him, four for six with a double and a
1:41:36
Speaker 1: home run against him in four walks. They got twelve
1:41:38
Speaker 1: strike outs and ten walks against him. I think Seattle
1:41:41
Speaker 1: can actually get to him for some runs here, which, yeah,
1:41:44
Speaker 1: he's not Rasmussen. Like I said, I thought Rasmussen would
1:41:47
Speaker 1: pitch well yesterday. I don't think the same thing about Jackson. Yes,
1:41:50
Speaker 1: Raslessen was good yesterday. I mentioned the under looked like
1:41:54
Speaker 1: the right way to go yesterday and it definitely was.
1:41:56
Speaker 1: But I was worried about Logan Gilbert not being good
1:41:59
Speaker 1: against Have a Bang. I'm not worried about that with
1:42:02
Speaker 1: George Kirby here, even though I think Gilbert is better
1:42:04
Speaker 1: than George Kirby. Kirby's got a three point seven to
1:42:07
Speaker 1: six ERA one point two eight whip is not really
1:42:10
Speaker 1: that good, but Kirby is better at home, so we
1:42:12
Speaker 1: do have the better at home road splits in favor
1:42:14
Speaker 1: of Kirby here three point five to one home hera
1:42:17
Speaker 1: with a much lower opponent batting average at home, which
1:42:20
Speaker 1: makes sense. It's a pitcher friendly park here. Kirby was
1:42:24
Speaker 1: really good last time out at home against Minnesota. He
1:42:26
Speaker 1: was bad in the start before that at Texas. Kirby
1:42:29
Speaker 1: just has these random starts where he just gives up
1:42:31
Speaker 1: a ton of home runs. And I think as long
1:42:33
Speaker 1: as that doesn't happen here. I think we're gonna be
1:42:36
Speaker 1: in this play like start to finish, you know. And
1:42:39
Speaker 1: it hasn't happened to him much. He's allowed three or
1:42:42
Speaker 1: fewer earned runs in every start going all the way
1:42:44
Speaker 1: back to the beginning of June when he had kind
1:42:47
Speaker 1: of a bad start here at home against the Mets,
1:42:49
Speaker 1: which I know is in a great sign. But he
1:42:51
Speaker 1: seems to have turned things around and started pitching a
1:42:53
Speaker 1: lot better since then. He does have a high hit
1:42:56
Speaker 1: rate that is a concern that he's kind of hittable here,
1:42:58
Speaker 1: but he doesn't walk anybody. His strike got rate is okay.
1:43:02
Speaker 1: And the clincher for me was that he's pretty good
1:43:04
Speaker 1: against Tampa Bay and fifty at bats twelve to three
1:43:07
Speaker 1: strike got walk ratio two forty average allowed six to
1:43:11
Speaker 1: twenty three oh ps. So I think he can pitch
1:43:12
Speaker 1: well here. I think it's a bounce backspot for Seattle.
1:43:15
Speaker 1: I think we get the home road splits in our
1:43:17
Speaker 1: favor with the teams and the starting pitching. I like
1:43:20
Speaker 1: Seattle's bullpen a little bit better as well. Public probably
1:43:23
Speaker 1: is not gonna like this, and the money doesn't even
1:43:25
Speaker 1: agree with me. Uh. Sixty six percent of tickets ninety
1:43:28
Speaker 1: five percent of the cash on Tampa Bay. So it
1:43:30
Speaker 1: looks like I'm fading the market read, And actually both
1:43:33
Speaker 1: games that I gave out today, is the market read
1:43:36
Speaker 1: still that way? In the No, it looks like the
1:43:38
Speaker 1: market Reid is kind of agreeing with me on that
1:43:40
Speaker 1: under I gave out at the beginning of the show.
1:43:42
Speaker 1: But whatever I like Seattle here, nobody's gonna want them,
1:43:45
Speaker 1: I don't think. But it looks like public and professionals
1:43:48
Speaker 1: are all taking Tampa Bay the better record, But I
1:43:50
Speaker 1: don't think so. I think it looks too easy, doesn't
1:43:52
Speaker 1: it to take Oh, Tampa Bay won yesterday, Tampa Bay
1:43:55
Speaker 1: has the better record. Seattle's looked like ass recently. The
1:43:58
Speaker 1: public always likes the better offense like, it seems way
1:44:01
Speaker 1: too easy to take Tampa Bay as the underdog here,
1:44:04
Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna do that. I'm gonna play Seattle
1:44:06
Speaker 1: as a small favorite there. Let's do that, all right, Hindy,
1:44:11
Speaker 1: And what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Yeah, I don't
1:44:15
Speaker 1: know what's going on with Raleigh. Some people were saying
1:44:18
Speaker 1: it's because he's a catcher and the war has taken
1:44:21
Speaker 1: its toll on him. But I mean, come on, there
1:44:22
Speaker 1: have been catchers that have hit well throughout their entire careers,
1:44:26
Speaker 1: you know what I mean, Like that was a thing.
1:44:28
Speaker 1: Maybe it's not a thing now so much, but you know,
1:44:31
Speaker 1: you had back when I was growing up, you had
1:44:33
Speaker 1: catchers that were good hitters. I mean, I don't know,
1:44:35
Speaker 1: you had Jason Vertek and Jure Pisada and whatever, Mike Piazza,
1:44:40
Speaker 1: Pudge Rodriguez, all those guys. I don't know. I mean,
1:44:43
Speaker 1: there weren't that many of them, but there were enough.
1:44:45
Speaker 1: There were a handful of them. I don't know. Anyway, Yes,
1:44:51
Speaker 1: we're going to the w NBA here until I die. Yes,
1:44:56
Speaker 1: so WNBA we yes, sorry, wrong comment. Yes, the WNBA
1:45:02
Speaker 1: has male players. Well yeah, they have Britney Griner. But
1:45:06
Speaker 1: other than that, you saw what's happening with the WNBA
1:45:09
Speaker 1: as we transition to WNBA talk before I have to
1:45:11
Speaker 1: leave here, which has to happen soon WNBA. It's hilarious
1:45:18
Speaker 1: what's going on with the WNBA because we had this
1:45:20
Speaker 1: whole thing. Sophie Cunningham is calling them out, you know,
1:45:23
Speaker 1: saying we should not have men and women's sports. She's
1:45:26
Speaker 1: obviously right, Like there's a reason why the WNBA is
1:45:29
Speaker 1: the only reason why it exists is because it's a
1:45:31
Speaker 1: sport for women. And unless you're deluding yourself, you know
1:45:35
Speaker 1: that just biologically, men are stronger than women. They're more
1:45:41
Speaker 1: athletic than women, they're more physical than women. In a
1:45:44
Speaker 1: game like this, men will dominate against women if you
1:45:47
Speaker 1: let men play in a women's sport. That's the way
1:45:50
Speaker 1: that it is. Sophie Cunningham is right, and she's for
1:45:54
Speaker 1: I mean, she's just speaking of reality. It shouldn't even
1:45:57
Speaker 1: be that hard to do it. Although for Caitlin Clark
1:45:59
Speaker 1: at a pairent is, Clark is refusing to comment on it,
1:46:02
Speaker 1: even though I think she agrees with Sophie. But I'm like,
1:46:05
Speaker 1: back up, your teammate, come on, Caitlin, what are you doing?
1:46:08
Speaker 1: So Sophie Cunningham is obviously my favorite player. Plus she's
1:46:12
Speaker 1: hotter than Caitlin Clark, so whatever. But anyway, uh yeah,
1:46:16
Speaker 1: And speaking of all that, Minnesota is playing today and
1:46:19
Speaker 1: you probably won't like what I have to say about that,
1:46:20
Speaker 1: but I liked. I'm just telling you who I think
1:46:23
Speaker 1: is gonna win these games. Man, That's all I'm doing here.
1:46:25
Speaker 1: But Minnesota obviously had their stupid coach, the fat lesbian
1:46:29
Speaker 1: with the uh, you know, mutilate children's genitals shirt on whatever.
1:46:35
Speaker 1: Absolutely ridiculous. But what I was gonna say is it's
1:46:38
Speaker 1: hilarious because now because there's this whole uproar and Minnesota's
1:46:43
Speaker 1: crowd was all going after Sophie Cunningham, well all right,
1:46:46
Speaker 1: maybe you're gonna get what you wanted, because now it
1:46:48
Speaker 1: looks like there are actually men who are NBA players
1:46:52
Speaker 1: who didn't quite make it in the NBA or a
1:46:56
Speaker 1: kind of out of the NBA now that are just like,
1:46:58
Speaker 1: fuck it, I'm gonna play in the WNBA. Now, you
1:47:00
Speaker 1: want to go on with the silliness, let's do it.
1:47:03
Speaker 1: And I don't know if you guys saw this, but
1:47:04
Speaker 1: it was Enis Cantor or Anis. How do you Enis
1:47:09
Speaker 1: Penis Anus? How do you pronounce his name? I have
1:47:11
Speaker 1: no idea. Ennis. I should know because he used to
1:47:14
Speaker 1: be on the Celtics briefly. But Ennis Cantor the guy
1:47:17
Speaker 1: who got banned from his home country of Turkey for
1:47:20
Speaker 1: saying something negative about their president. Although I think I
1:47:25
Speaker 1: don't know, man, he's probably like a pro Israel guy,
1:47:27
Speaker 1: But I don't know Cantor. But It is hilarious what
1:47:30
Speaker 1: he's doing right now. He changed his name to Enis
1:47:33
Speaker 1: cantor Freedom. By the way. He's out of the NBA now,
1:47:36
Speaker 1: and he just came out and said he's declaring for
1:47:39
Speaker 1: the w NBA Draft in twenty twenty seven. If you
1:47:41
Speaker 1: haven't seen it, I think he's serious. Go watch the video.
1:47:45
Speaker 1: It's hilarious. He had a WNBA hoodie on and he
1:47:47
Speaker 1: was like and he was like, I've you know, my lawyers,
1:47:51
Speaker 1: and I have my agent, and I would ever have
1:47:53
Speaker 1: looked over all the rules, and the rules allow for this,
1:47:57
Speaker 1: like they're allowing He's like, they should allow him to
1:48:00
Speaker 1: be in two. They should allow me to have a
1:48:03
Speaker 1: chance to participate in this league and not be discriminatory.
1:48:06
Speaker 1: I'm like, this is hilarious, dude. And I think other
1:48:09
Speaker 1: male players that are like NBA caliber players have also
1:48:13
Speaker 1: started doing that too. It's gonna be it's gonna be
1:48:16
Speaker 1: the end of the WNBA. It's gonna be absolutely hilarious
1:48:19
Speaker 1: if there's an influx of men, especially men that are
1:48:23
Speaker 1: do you know how hard it is to be a
1:48:24
Speaker 1: guy that's good enough to make the NBA And do
1:48:27
Speaker 1: you think that the WNBA players are gonna be able
1:48:30
Speaker 1: to compete against male players who are good enough to
1:48:33
Speaker 1: be in the NBA. There's no way. And Canter, I think,
1:48:37
Speaker 1: would be the tallest person of the WNBA right off
1:48:39
Speaker 1: the bat, because he's like six', ten AND i think
1:48:42
Speaker 1: probably the tallest players are Like grinder And Asiel wilson,
1:48:46
Speaker 1: whatever they're like six' nine. Basically whatever he might not be,
1:48:49
Speaker 1: the tallest but he'll be one of, the tallest and
1:48:51
Speaker 1: he'll be the bet he'll be the best player in the.
1:48:53
Speaker 1: League immediately it's just, so ridiculous it's, so FOOLISH and
1:48:58
Speaker 1: i hope. It happens it's like AND then i won't
1:49:00
Speaker 1: have TO handicap. Wnba anymore although the only good thing
1:49:03
Speaker 1: about it is that we can make money, doing it
1:49:05
Speaker 1: and we've been doing that on. The, Show Yeah cayl rawley,
1:49:09
Speaker 1: IS young i, don't know. Somewhat. Young, Uh Yes sophie
1:49:14
Speaker 1: cunningham not probably not the hottest in the, entire league,
1:49:17
Speaker 1: but YEAH definitely i go for more, shorter. Chicks though
1:49:22
Speaker 1: i'm gonna look at some of the guards IN. The
1:49:23
Speaker 1: wnba maybe some of them. Are hot there used to,
1:49:26
Speaker 1: BE some i. Don't, Know, Brittany Yeah brittany grinder set
1:49:31
Speaker 1: the whole press, and anyway the big game of the
1:49:33
Speaker 1: Day is Vegas. And minnesota this could be a potential
1:49:36
Speaker 1: championship PREVIEW because i think these are the top two
1:49:39
Speaker 1: teams in, the league and the playoffs don't separate, by
1:49:42
Speaker 1: conference so it's just it's based on the league. Wide
1:49:47
Speaker 1: records so these two teams could match up in the,
1:49:49
Speaker 1: championship theoretically especially if they wind up ranked number one and.
1:49:53
Speaker 1: Number two this GAME'S let Cbs And paramount plus in
1:49:57
Speaker 1: the afternoon at One. Pm eastern the league think is
1:50:00
Speaker 1: Just helping. Minnesota, them man if you LOOK at I
1:50:02
Speaker 1: think minnesota is gonna win the game there the, better
1:50:05
Speaker 1: TEAM but i think the setup is better for them
1:50:06
Speaker 1: in this. Game too look at what the league did
1:50:08
Speaker 1: to They're playing india Or sus They're playing, vegas here
1:50:12
Speaker 1: but look at what the league did as far as
1:50:14
Speaker 1: the scheduling, is concerned which you'll see in. A minute
1:50:17
Speaker 1: minnesota is staying at home for a third, straight game
1:50:19
Speaker 1: and they did have a big Win over indiana a
1:50:22
Speaker 1: couple of, games ago which was that big game where
1:50:24
Speaker 1: it was the Crowd Against sophie conningham and the Rest
1:50:27
Speaker 1: screwed indiana. And, whatever well after, THAT game, I said
1:50:30
Speaker 1: minnesota was in a sandwich spot after that, big win
1:50:33
Speaker 1: With this vegas, game looming and what do? They do
1:50:35
Speaker 1: they lost outright as sixteen and a half point favorites
1:50:39
Speaker 1: TO The, la SPARKS and i SAID that i leaned
1:50:41
Speaker 1: To the sparks plus. The points that should have been
1:50:43
Speaker 1: my Play. ON thursday i Gave up vegas instead. That
1:50:46
Speaker 1: Day but vegas won. As well but it was a
1:50:49
Speaker 1: little bit Difficult. FOR vegas la just won. That game
1:50:53
Speaker 1: but you KNOW what i, always say when a team
1:50:54
Speaker 1: was a massive Favorite like minnesota and they have a
1:50:56
Speaker 1: bad game like that and, they lose there's a reason.
1:50:59
Speaker 1: FOR it a lot of times you could tell what.
1:51:00
Speaker 1: It was they just completely LOOKED. Past la obviously they're Just.
1:51:04
Speaker 1: Beating indiana They had vegas, on Deck. Then DALLAS the
1:51:07
Speaker 1: la game was the least of all, those games so they.
1:51:10
Speaker 1: Overlooked them they, got. CAUGHT obviously i think they bounced.
1:51:14
Speaker 1: Back here but the one problem is they did lose
1:51:15
Speaker 1: a long, win streak so that would concern me a
1:51:18
Speaker 1: little Bit with, minnesota here and, YOU know i talk
1:51:20
Speaker 1: about when a team loses a win streak, like that
1:51:22
Speaker 1: and they'd won ten games in a Row like it's
1:51:25
Speaker 1: like you're not used to, losing anymore and sometimes that
1:51:28
Speaker 1: will hang you over into the. Next game so that
1:51:30
Speaker 1: is a Concern with minnesota that they are in a
1:51:33
Speaker 1: momentum stopping a spot here kind of which is Not, great,
1:51:37
Speaker 1: vegas though this IS what i was. Talking about with the,
1:51:38
Speaker 1: scheduling makers plus the refts Are helping. Minnesota out vegas
1:51:42
Speaker 1: is in a much more difficult. Spot here vegas is
1:51:44
Speaker 1: playing a fourth straight road. Game here they've had some
1:51:48
Speaker 1: difficult road, games here and they Just beat atlanta and
1:51:50
Speaker 1: then They beat indiana, in overtime and that was THE
1:51:52
Speaker 1: winner i gave out on the show the. Other night
1:51:54
Speaker 1: vegas had to overcome a twenty point deficit or early in,
1:51:57
Speaker 1: that game which they actually did, fairly quickly and they
1:52:00
Speaker 1: were actually leading for most of the, second half believe it.
1:52:03
Speaker 1: Or not they did have to go into overtime and
1:52:04
Speaker 1: they won a, buzzer BEATER which i think Was By.
1:52:06
Speaker 1: Chelsea gray vegas, is good there's no doubt. About that
1:52:10
Speaker 1: they're the second best Team. Behind Minnesota but minnesota is
1:52:14
Speaker 1: far and away the best team in this, league unfortunately
1:52:17
Speaker 1: and that is why they're like five and a half
1:52:18
Speaker 1: point favorites probably in, this GAME and i think they cover.
1:52:22
Speaker 1: AS well i think the spot's just not very Good.
1:52:24
Speaker 1: For vegas they Played. ON thursday I believe minnesota also,
1:52:28
Speaker 1: did it so they have the same rest. Scenario Here. But, vegas,
1:52:32
Speaker 1: YEAH right i already talked, about, THAT right i just
1:52:34
Speaker 1: mentioned they did both play on the. Same night, But
1:52:37
Speaker 1: yeah vegas playing a fourth straight road game, like this
1:52:39
Speaker 1: playing a few big time battles in a, row here
1:52:43
Speaker 1: of course they're gonna get up for. This game and
1:52:44
Speaker 1: there are maybe some concerns with the Situation, from MINNESOTA
1:52:48
Speaker 1: but I think minnesota is gonna win, the GAME and
1:52:50
Speaker 1: i believe this is a revenge spot. As Well if i'm.
1:52:52
Speaker 1: Not MISTAKEN minnesota i believe lost early. In, This yeah minnesota.
1:52:56
Speaker 1: Did lose their first loss of the season was at
1:52:59
Speaker 1: The so minnesota actually Lost. In vegas that's the only
1:53:03
Speaker 1: time they. Played them i'm pretty sure it was a.
1:53:05
Speaker 1: Close game it was a high. Scoring game it was
1:53:07
Speaker 1: a three, point Loss so minnesota probably remembers that it
1:53:10
Speaker 1: might make some adjustments off. OF that i Would play
1:53:13
Speaker 1: MINNESOTA if i was gonna. Play this you're laying about
1:53:15
Speaker 1: five with, them here fifty six percent of Tickets, around
1:53:18
Speaker 1: vegas seventy seven percent of the Cash. On minnesota and
1:53:21
Speaker 1: this is kind of LIKE what i Said with Minnesota.
1:53:22
Speaker 1: And indiana it's one of those games that has the
1:53:25
Speaker 1: vibe where the public is, gonna, think oh this is
1:53:27
Speaker 1: an epic matchup two, good teams and then they see
1:53:30
Speaker 1: that they get a huge amount of points or what
1:53:32
Speaker 1: they perceive is a big amount of points of, the
1:53:34
Speaker 1: underdog and they want to take. THE underdog i would
1:53:37
Speaker 1: not do. THAT here i would lay the POINTS if
1:53:39
Speaker 1: i was gonna play, that game. All, Right, unfortunately yeah
1:53:43
Speaker 1: next game will be my PLAY. In wnba we're gonna
1:53:52
Speaker 1: tell you Know what i'm. Gonna do i'm Gonna take.
1:53:53
Speaker 1: CHICAGO again i think they're the Team that i've played
1:53:55
Speaker 1: the most. This YEAR but i think they're in a.
1:53:58
Speaker 1: Good spot, we're Fading so, i'm SORRY but i. LIKE
1:54:01
Speaker 1: money i like. To win this is at three Thirty,
1:54:04
Speaker 1: pm eastern so we'll have two afternoon. Games today this IS.
1:54:07
Speaker 1: On abc this is a bad Spot, for. Indiana DUDE like,
1:54:11
Speaker 1: I said indiana is coming up that huge Game against
1:54:14
Speaker 1: vegas where They had vegas on the ropes and they
1:54:16
Speaker 1: blew a twenty point lead in. That GAME and i
1:54:19
Speaker 1: Was on vegas in THAT when i gave, You guys
1:54:21
Speaker 1: vegas as, a play we got. The win it was
1:54:24
Speaker 1: tough to, get there but. IT happened i didn't like
1:54:27
Speaker 1: the Spot for indiana because they were. Returning home they
1:54:29
Speaker 1: had had a huge game in the game prior, to
1:54:30
Speaker 1: that which was the Game against MINNESOTA that i Mentioned
1:54:33
Speaker 1: where indiana almost got close. To winning, that game they
1:54:36
Speaker 1: made a huge comeback late and almost got back, in
1:54:40
Speaker 1: it like they were only down a couple points with
1:54:41
Speaker 1: a couple of minutes left in. That GAME so i
1:54:44
Speaker 1: thought they were gonna be in a flat Spot. Against
1:54:45
Speaker 1: vegas they put up a huge, effort Again but vegas
1:54:49
Speaker 1: was able To hold indiana's. Offense down and THAT'S what
1:54:51
Speaker 1: i thought, would happen and that is. What happened indiana
1:54:55
Speaker 1: is a very. Offensive team they're not very. Good Defensively
1:54:58
Speaker 1: although chicago isn't exactly good. Defense either i'd like this
1:55:01
Speaker 1: a lot Better at chicago was a slow down, defensive
1:55:05
Speaker 1: team And, maybe chicago given what this, matchup is maybe
1:55:07
Speaker 1: they'll try To slow, indiana, down hopefully because that's what we,
1:55:10
Speaker 1: want here we're taking. An underdog we're taking an underdog
1:55:12
Speaker 1: with a big. Total today but it's all about the
1:55:15
Speaker 1: spot here. For me indiana just played those two huge
1:55:18
Speaker 1: Games against Minnesota, and vegas and now they're going back
1:55:21
Speaker 1: out on, the road even though it's a short road
1:55:24
Speaker 1: trip To, Play, chicago like how much focus are they
1:55:27
Speaker 1: gonna have after those two huge games Overtime on thursday
1:55:30
Speaker 1: two days ago And. Against vegas now they play This week,
1:55:33
Speaker 1: chicago team and then after that they got A huge
1:55:35
Speaker 1: espn game Against the Liberty on tuesday. Up next this
1:55:39
Speaker 1: is a, sandwich spot even though they did just Beat
1:55:41
Speaker 1: the liberty not. Long ago that's gonna be a big game.
1:55:43
Speaker 1: For them, so yeah it's clearly a. Sandwich spot this
1:55:47
Speaker 1: is the down spot in the schedule in this stretch
1:55:50
Speaker 1: of really a bunch of games Because After new york
1:55:52
Speaker 1: They play Dallas. In atlanta those are bigger Games to
1:55:56
Speaker 1: ATLANTA'S an espn game. AS well i know this IS
1:55:58
Speaker 1: a tv game on a but it looks like a
1:56:01
Speaker 1: down Spot in. Indiana's schedule chicago might get up a
1:56:04
Speaker 1: little bit more, for it because the home team is
1:56:05
Speaker 1: usually the team that gets up a little bit MORE
1:56:08
Speaker 1: for tv game, like this, you Know, IN chicago i
1:56:11
Speaker 1: think they're gonna get up, for this and they have
1:56:12
Speaker 1: a little bit of momentum. Right now they've won three
1:56:14
Speaker 1: of their last, four games they have an extra day,
1:56:16
Speaker 1: of rest and they're staying, at HOME although i know
1:56:18
Speaker 1: they Travel from Indiana to chicago is not exactly, a
1:56:21
Speaker 1: Lot but chicago was staying. At home they JUST beat
1:56:23
Speaker 1: la in their, last game decent confidence boosting win there
1:56:27
Speaker 1: against kind of A weak. La Team, BUT chicago i mean,
1:56:30
Speaker 1: THEIR defense i. DON'T know, i mean they haven't been
1:56:33
Speaker 1: that bad. Recent though indiana is a very, potent, offense
1:56:36
Speaker 1: obviously and they may score quite a Bit against. Chicago
1:56:40
Speaker 1: HERE and i know they're professionals that like the over in.
1:56:42
Speaker 1: This Game but i'm looking at the Side and I'm
1:56:45
Speaker 1: saying indiana's in a. SANDWICH spot i think the spot's Better.
1:56:48
Speaker 1: For chicago they're gonna get up for, this game most
1:56:51
Speaker 1: likely because it's Against an indiana team that's one of
1:56:53
Speaker 1: the most hyped, teams here still the most talked. About
1:56:56
Speaker 1: teams They played indiana Well, in indiana by, the way
1:56:59
Speaker 1: earlier this year they took them to Overtime, in indiana
1:57:03
Speaker 1: And while indiana might remember that and, be, like oh
1:57:05
Speaker 1: we have to take this. TEAM seriously i think that's
1:57:08
Speaker 1: less likely GIVEN what i just, showed you given the
1:57:11
Speaker 1: scheduling Spot for indiana and the games that, SURROUND this
1:57:13
Speaker 1: i don't really. Think so but what this also does
1:57:15
Speaker 1: tell you Is that chicago has the ability to play Competitively.
1:57:19
Speaker 1: With indiana and that was on. The road but you
1:57:22
Speaker 1: do want, to, see like what Spot was indiana and in?
1:57:24
Speaker 1: That game were they in a bad spot in? That
1:57:26
Speaker 1: game they really. NOT really, i mean they did return
1:57:30
Speaker 1: home from, the road but it was a quick. Road
1:57:32
Speaker 1: trip it was a return, home spot but it wasn't
1:57:34
Speaker 1: really surrounded by, big games so it wasn't exactly a
1:57:36
Speaker 1: horrible spot. For them so that gives me a little
1:57:39
Speaker 1: bit more Confidence in chicago here. As well the money
1:57:42
Speaker 1: doesn't agree, with me but it Looks like indiana is a.
1:57:44
Speaker 1: Public side seventy seven percent, of tickets ninety one percent
1:57:47
Speaker 1: of the cash. On them there, are sixes maybe even
1:57:50
Speaker 1: six and, a half so out there the numbers kind
1:57:52
Speaker 1: of all over. The place, but yeah grab the points.
1:57:55
Speaker 1: With this you're not gonna get the key number, SEVEN
1:57:56
Speaker 1: here i, don't believe, but six six and. A half whatever,
1:57:59
Speaker 1: it is grab It. With, chicago, ALTHOUGH yes i know
1:58:02
Speaker 1: the total is really high in the, one nineties which.
1:58:06
Speaker 1: Worries me, YOU know i like underdogs more when the
1:58:09
Speaker 1: totals like in the, one sixties you KNOW what, i
1:58:11
Speaker 1: mean because every point is. Worth more but this is
1:58:13
Speaker 1: just a bad Spot, for indiana so We'll. Grab chicago
1:58:17
Speaker 1: that last game, they played that overtime Game, against indiana
1:58:19
Speaker 1: both teams scored a shit ton and the money is
1:58:22
Speaker 1: coming in on the over again in, this one and
1:58:23
Speaker 1: that's because of the style that these teams like. To
1:58:26
Speaker 1: play they both kind of play, up tempo so the
1:58:28
Speaker 1: over does kind of. Make sense but Maybe maybe i'd
1:58:34
Speaker 1: be a little bit weaker, on That although i'm not
1:58:36
Speaker 1: really a, totals guy but the Fact that Indiana and
1:58:38
Speaker 1: chicago played a high scoring game that, first time and
1:58:40
Speaker 1: it was a little bit misleading because it went, into
1:58:43
Speaker 1: overtime so the actual game wasn't quite that, high scoring
1:58:47
Speaker 1: that would have me a little bit more concerned about the.
1:58:50
Speaker 1: Over here plus the totals, crazy hide it actually dropped
1:58:54
Speaker 1: a little bit from where. It opened, but yeah the
1:58:56
Speaker 1: Play is chicago plus. The, points Yes. HATE minnesota i hope,
1:59:01
Speaker 1: They lose i'm gonna pick Them to i'm gonna do my.
1:59:03
Speaker 1: Bracket special i'm still gonna pick them. TO win, I
1:59:05
Speaker 1: mean i don't see who's gonna. Beat them that's. The
1:59:08
Speaker 1: problem they spent most of the Season, without collier who's
1:59:11
Speaker 1: one of the best players in, the league and they
1:59:13
Speaker 1: did all this without her even. Being there and now.
1:59:16
Speaker 1: She's back So this minnesota team is there's a huge
1:59:20
Speaker 1: gap between them and the rest of. The league what
1:59:25
Speaker 1: what do, YOU mean i don't understand what, That means
1:59:29
Speaker 1: clark Versus. THE sky i don't know what you're. Talking
1:59:31
Speaker 1: about and then we Have A. Seattle portland we have
1:59:34
Speaker 1: a really ugly match up here between The two northwestern,
1:59:38
Speaker 1: teams Here now portland and. Expansion, team now it is
1:59:41
Speaker 1: Interesting that portland is favored only by one and a
1:59:44
Speaker 1: half even though they have a better Record than seattle
1:59:46
Speaker 1: does by, a Lot and seattle's been very bad on.
1:59:49
Speaker 1: The road but it looks kind of. Too easy it's
1:59:52
Speaker 1: like basically a pick the, winner Here and seattle's got
1:59:55
Speaker 1: such a. Bad record if the public looks, at this
1:59:57
Speaker 1: you know they're Gonna play, portland here and it kind
1:59:59
Speaker 1: of looks too easy to Do, THAT however i don't
2:00:04
Speaker 1: like the Spot for seattle. Here Though now portland they
2:00:07
Speaker 1: just ended a. Losing streak they lost five games in.
2:00:09
Speaker 1: A row portland not playing. Well recently they started, out
2:00:11
Speaker 1: DECENT but i think that was because teams didn't know
2:00:14
Speaker 1: what to expect with them because they're an, expansion team
2:00:16
Speaker 1: and now that, they've that every team's basically. Seen them
2:00:18
Speaker 1: now they've caught up to It in portland's not playing.
2:00:21
Speaker 1: As well portland did just beat the other, Expansion team
2:00:24
Speaker 1: toronto in their. Last game but the one good thing
2:00:28
Speaker 1: about it is they ended a five game, win streak
2:00:30
Speaker 1: so maybe they will have some. Momentum here they Do play.
2:00:32
Speaker 1: Minnesota next don't know if they're really gonna overlook, anybody
2:00:35
Speaker 1: though with how bad their season, as men but if
2:00:38
Speaker 1: they're gonna, overlook anybody maybe it Will. Be, Seattle now
2:00:41
Speaker 1: seattle's kind of in a bad spot because they did
2:00:43
Speaker 1: just play two tough Games In, new york and look
2:00:46
Speaker 1: at what's going on. With them they played three games
2:00:48
Speaker 1: On The east Coast against Atlanta And new. York twice
2:00:51
Speaker 1: they only lost by six last time they Were In,
2:00:53
Speaker 1: new york which was kind of a zigzag ish. Looking spot.
2:00:56
Speaker 1: There after they lost by double digits in the, first
2:00:58
Speaker 1: Game and I'M did i give that out as? A
2:01:00
Speaker 1: play i don't REMEMBER if. I did i DON'T think.
2:01:02
Speaker 1: I did i THINK maybe i was, CONSIDERING it, i forget,
2:01:05
Speaker 1: but anyway or maybe the FIRST game i. WAS considered.
2:01:08
Speaker 1: I Forget If new york was, RETURNING home i. Don't remember, But,
2:01:11
Speaker 1: whatever seattle that game wasn't that, close though if you
2:01:14
Speaker 1: look at what happened in. That Game but seattle didn't,
2:01:16
Speaker 1: go away like they were definitely not gonna win, that
2:01:19
Speaker 1: game and they want up only losing, by six and
2:01:21
Speaker 1: they were losing by more than that late in, the
2:01:23
Speaker 1: game but they didn't, go away and they kind of
2:01:24
Speaker 1: hung around like that six to eight. Point margin so
2:01:27
Speaker 1: they played a pretty. Tough game and now they have
2:01:29
Speaker 1: to travel all the way back To The. West coast
2:01:31
Speaker 1: and while this is not gonna be one of those
2:01:33
Speaker 1: really LATE ten, pm games they're having to travel cross.
2:01:36
Speaker 1: Country here they're going From the east coast To the
2:01:38
Speaker 1: west coast with only a couple of. DAYS off i
2:01:40
Speaker 1: don't like that, for them and they're in the middle
2:01:42
Speaker 1: of this long losing, streak Here whereas portland just busted
2:01:45
Speaker 1: theirs and that Might. Help portland so even though it
2:01:48
Speaker 1: looks way too easy To play, portland HERE so i wouldn't,
2:01:50
Speaker 1: do it just because it looks like the books are
2:01:52
Speaker 1: begging you To, play portland and they're telling you That
2:01:55
Speaker 1: basically portland isn't even the better team here based on
2:01:58
Speaker 1: the number that they put out on. THIS game i
2:02:02
Speaker 1: Can't play seattle here given that they're traveling cross Country
2:02:05
Speaker 1: in portland is literally just staying. At home the travel
2:02:08
Speaker 1: spot is way Better, For PORTLAND so I think i
2:02:10
Speaker 1: would Probably lean, portland here but the money's not agreeing,
2:02:13
Speaker 1: with IT and i understand why because it looks like
2:02:15
Speaker 1: it's kind of a trap. Line here seventy nine percent of,
2:02:18
Speaker 1: the tickets sixty seven percent of the Cash. On portland
2:02:21
Speaker 1: they're about a minus one favorite one and. A HALF like,
2:02:23
Speaker 1: i said it's basically picked. The winner looks way too
2:02:25
Speaker 1: easy To, play Portland so i'm not gonna, do IT
2:02:27
Speaker 1: but i do lean that way Given that seattle's travel
2:02:30
Speaker 1: spot is just. Really ugly that's gonna.
2:02:33
Speaker 4: Do.
2:02:33
Speaker 1: It man that's the slate. For today does Anybody on
2:02:39
Speaker 1: chicago have it out for the? Whole league has it Out? For,
2:02:42
Speaker 1: clark so like every, TEAM does i. DON'T know I mean,
2:02:46
Speaker 1: CHICAGO specifically i. DON'T know i mean they're kind of
2:02:50
Speaker 1: rivals because they're, geographically close so those two teams don't
2:02:54
Speaker 1: really like. Each other that that might boost the Play,
2:02:59
Speaker 1: in chicago right if the refs are Gonna, help Chicago
2:03:02
Speaker 1: and chicago's gonna go out there and try to injure.
2:03:04
Speaker 1: People anyway the slate today is under seven and a
2:03:07
Speaker 1: Half In. BRAVES yankees i think the pitching matchup should get.
2:03:11
Speaker 1: Us there we're Gonna Play seattle mariners on the money
2:03:14
Speaker 1: line and we're gonna Take The chicago sky. Plus six you.
2:03:18
Speaker 1: Know me people are not gonna like, these plays except
2:03:20
Speaker 1: for maybe that underplay because the pitching. Looks good but
2:03:23
Speaker 1: maybe even that they. Don't like the public doesn't like
2:03:25
Speaker 1: unders you. Know me my plays. Are ugly i'm trying to.
2:03:28
Speaker 1: Win here had a good day on the. Show yesterday
2:03:30
Speaker 1: let's hope we're on a new hot. Streak here let's keep.
2:03:32
Speaker 1: IT up i mean this, my record, YOU know i
2:03:35
Speaker 1: think it speaks. For itself it's a winning record. For
2:03:38
Speaker 1: sure we're well above that threshold that it takes to overcome.
2:03:41
Speaker 1: The juice so not many people could. Do it i'm
2:03:44
Speaker 1: doing it on. This show you're here to. WITNESS it
2:03:46
Speaker 1: i don't have many, viewers here but there. You go
2:03:49
Speaker 1: i'm annoying to listen to them and ask. To everybody
2:03:52
Speaker 1: i'm STUBBORN whatever i. Get it. I'M autistic i ramble
2:03:56
Speaker 1: subscribe baby learn its Own on twitter. As well check me.
2:03:59
Speaker 1: OUT there i blew up recently For Ratioing dan crenshawn
2:04:03
Speaker 1: got like a thousand something followers out of it in
2:04:06
Speaker 1: like a day just. For that i'm gonna try to
2:04:09
Speaker 1: keep doing That on instagram. As well Learn. IT toad
2:04:13
Speaker 1: i put out the short form of this on there
2:04:16
Speaker 1: covered in you because my. Yuke channel you can check
2:04:18
Speaker 1: that on YouTube my uke, covers obviously like subscribe to.
2:04:21
Speaker 1: This channel we'll have some football content coming. Up soon
2:04:25
Speaker 1: what ELSE am i? Gonna? Do well WHAT else i have?
2:04:27
Speaker 1: To promote, oh yeah we're on audio with this show.
2:04:29
Speaker 1: As well that's been actually going up. Again RECENTLY so
2:04:31
Speaker 1: i like that slow increase in. The numbers let's let's, keep,
2:04:35
Speaker 1: going man keep. It going tell everybody about. The show
2:04:38
Speaker 1: at the, Very least i'm giving you winners genuinly on.
2:04:40
Speaker 1: The show you can't judge me based on one day
2:04:43
Speaker 1: or one week or even one month. Or whatever but
2:04:45
Speaker 1: look at what we're doing long. Term here you know.
2:04:48
Speaker 1: It's good WHAT else i have? To promote patreon, dot
2:04:52
Speaker 1: com sage, learned it toad if you want to support me,
2:04:54
Speaker 1: THAT way I know i don't have too much content.
2:04:56
Speaker 1: ON there i really got to focus on adding more
2:04:57
Speaker 1: stuff there And more twitter, subscriber Content tent loser Cast every,
2:05:03
Speaker 1: tuesday night And The New york Giants g, spot podcast
2:05:05
Speaker 1: and that's gonna. Do it thanks everybody for. Hanging, out
2:05:09
Speaker 1: yes uh? Real vent is that? Is that how your?
2:05:12
Speaker 1: Is that what your? Name? Is yes? Thank you thanks
2:05:14
Speaker 1: for checking out the. Show man good to see, New
2:05:16
Speaker 1: faces good to see all the regulars. As well thank.
2:05:18
Speaker 1: You sir there. We go WHAT am i a, locally
2:05:23
Speaker 1: stubborn lovable. Stubborn curmudgeon yeah that's, me obviously or a
2:05:28
Speaker 1: fun scum bag Is owen benjamin referred to These Guys.
2:05:32
Speaker 1: Tower gang if you want to go back and watch
2:05:34
Speaker 1: The Old, tower gangs they're all still. Online somewhere They're.
2:05:36
Speaker 1: On rumble most of the ones from the like last
2:05:40
Speaker 1: two years that we did, the show and then the
2:05:42
Speaker 1: old ones are all still Up, ON odyssey. I believe
2:05:45
Speaker 1: so the episodes are, All, SOMEWHERE man i actually have
2:05:48
Speaker 1: them here on my. Server Too So, TOWER gang i
2:05:52
Speaker 1: wish we could bring, it, back Man but i'm wrapping.
2:05:55
Speaker 4: Them.
2:05:55
Speaker 1: Today UH support nds, as well some Of My tower gang.
2:05:59
Speaker 1: Co hosts They're doing grove this week HOW much i
2:06:01
Speaker 1: cannot Attend because i'm doing some family stuff over the
2:06:04
Speaker 1: weekend here and it at least saves me. Some money,
2:06:08
Speaker 1: But Yeah, BRO grove i would recommend being a subscriber
2:06:13
Speaker 1: a PATROON. For nds they put out a lot of.
2:06:15
Speaker 1: Good content sometimes they have me on. The show but
2:06:18
Speaker 1: The bro grove stuff that they're doing, for subscribers it's all. Pretty.
2:06:20
Speaker 1: Cool own benjamin is out, there again by, the way
2:06:23
Speaker 1: so two years in a row for him going. Out
2:06:26
Speaker 1: there It's In. Central floid it's already off, and running
2:06:29
Speaker 1: though you would have had to have Gotten there thursday,
2:06:31
Speaker 1: Night ideally, But whatever MAN and I. Saw nds they
2:06:36
Speaker 1: looked like they were GIVING some vip tours of their studio.
2:06:39
Speaker 1: And whatever it looked like some cool stuff going. On
2:06:42
Speaker 1: there that's gonna. Do it, Learn, it toad you know Me,
2:06:46
Speaker 1: link tree, Learned it toad all the links that there
2:06:48
Speaker 1: already gave. You, Everything anyway let's win. Today peace.
2:06:54
Speaker 3: If the docs, dots talking hand me, the phone that's.
2:06:59
Speaker 2: Somebody answer let.
2:07:01
Speaker 1: Somebody know you do not have to lose This.
2:07:07
Speaker 4: Round longe, hold on, hold on, nothing nice not now.
2:07:20
Speaker 2: Hold on. Hold on let me pull you out that
2:07:29
Speaker 2: bad luck, by time.
2:07:32
Speaker 4: But it don't get.
2:07:35
Speaker 2: The Crown, hold on, hold on stay, with me now,
2:07:45
Speaker 2: hold on, hold on you're. Still here
2:08:00
Speaker 1: Did