Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 181 - 12/12/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 181 - 12/12/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 181 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
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Happy Thirsty Thursday. Our work week is coming to an
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end. One day closer to a big weekend
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of NFL football and some Army Navy, which I'm still thinking
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about that under 39 1/2. I'm going to give another day
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here. Might have a play for tomorrow.
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And then also for tomorrow's pod, might have some UFC, some
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biting in the arena as we do have a loaded, loaded slate on
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tap of biting coming up for Saturday.
1:01
So it should be a big pod for tomorrow.
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Now looking for today guys. We have a three pack of sweats
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for you, including big Thursday Night Football here.
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I'm sad there's no college football.
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I'm actually a little a little annoyed we don't have those
1:14
match and week midweek games anymore.
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But we do have Rams and 49ers. Interesting line movement back
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and forth. The bet splits are going to be
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important to me for this one as well as some system matches.
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So I do have a play on the side and I do have a player prop.
1:27
I'm hoping this pass catcher can go over his receiving yardage,
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so at least try to get one of those.
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And then also one play in college basketball.
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There's a big game here tonight. Unranked verse ranked contrarian
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dog with a really sharp reverse line move.
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So a three pack overall. See if we can eke out two out of
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three and produce a winning night.
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Now I buried the lead after we were just wasting away in the
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abyss in the darkness. Bad beats left and right, making
1:53
sharp bets and losing pretty much all the time.
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We finally broke through with a winning night last night.
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Hallelujah. The long National Nightmares
2:00
over 3 and 2 + 0.56 units last night had a great hit with UTEP.
2:05
Remember UTEP plus 15 and F-14 FI?
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Think Rhythm said it should be 11.
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They almost won that damn game. So that was pretty impressive
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covering the number with UTEP, The Atlanta and Atlanta Hawks
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and New York Knicks under sailed under.
2:18
Didn't really have to sweat that one.
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Remember, that was the kind of sell high under after it had
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risen quite a bit with a good rhythm edge.
2:24
And then the importance of always money lining short
2:27
favorites, the Houston Rockets getting it done, winning by one
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point. Why is that important?
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Because if you laid the points, you lost that bet as you were
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basically was things that closed that like minus actually closed
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-3 three and a half. So not only did we win that
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money line bet, but we beat the closing line because we money
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line them when I think they were -2 but again, you money line the
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Rockets, you won. If you laid the points, you
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lost. That's why I always money line
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short favorites. Now, I will never complain about
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a winning night after a bunch of losing nights 3 and 2 + 0.56
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units. But you know what?
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Baby steps. It was a winning night, but man,
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it should have been an even better night.
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Southeast Louisiana getting 4 1/2 points, they basically
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dominated, not dominated, but they carried the game the entire
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time. And they basically gave it up in
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the last minute and end up losing by 7.
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So that was a rough one. And then just to tell you that
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even when it's, you know, 2 steps forward, one step back.
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Did anyone see that terrible, heartbreaking result with Fresno
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State? BYUBYU went on a 10 nothing run
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in the last two minutes. They ended up winning by 28 and
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we got plus 27 1/2, a great number and not only did it hurt
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that we lost that bet, but did you guys see where that line
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closed at like 25 1/2? We beat the closing line by two
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points and of course this kids got a dunk it with like 10
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seconds left to make it a 26 point win to a 28.1.
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So that was not fun, but luckily we had a winning night.
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So baby steps, still getting bad beats here and there, but
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finally a winning night. We will take it.
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I do want to mention also we're going to go through our three
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best bets here for tonight. Try to get two out of three.
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But at the end of the pod, I'm going to talk about something
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that has nothing to do with sports betting but is a major
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news story. That should be an even bigger
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major news story. And I actually have a personal
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connection in terms of a family member who is kind of living
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through it right now. So stay tuned for that.
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It's got nothing to do with sports betting, but you may know
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what I'm talking about. You may not.
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And hopefully this will. I don't know.
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I got I got I got to talk about it because my wife says you're
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crazy. My sister who's been seeing it
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happening, she she thinks now it's real and she's a skeptic.
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But again, I'll talk about the end of the pod.
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Stay tuned for that. But something's going on in New
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Jersey. That's that's what I'll I'll
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start with or end the pod with anyway.
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Now that's all I can think about because I was like staying up
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all night deep diving this. But anyway, let's start with
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sports betting because he came here for sports betting.
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So Rams 49ers Thursday Night Football.
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Let's set the stage, talk about the line movement, where the
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betting public is, where the smart money's at, where the
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system matches are AT and then I'll give you my play for both
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the side and a player prop. Now going in this one, Rams
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seven and six. They've won three of their last
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four, just outlasted the bills 44 to 42.
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If you had that over, you felt pretty good about that one, but
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they went out right as a 3 1/2 point home dog.
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Meanwhile, the Niners six and seven, they did just snap a
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three-game losing skid with a 3813 win over the Bears easily
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covered as a three-point home favorite.
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So what we've seen across the market here, well, kind of back
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and forth movement. This game opened 49ers around a
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three-point home favorite. And early in the week, we saw
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this line get all the way down to 49ers -2 So I was monitoring
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this line as I do all lines, you know, how they kind of evolve
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open move and how it kind of breaks late.
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But I said, oh, looks like Rams are taking in some smart money.
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But here's why I think it's really important to kind of let
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the line continue to give you more information.
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You know, the deeper you get into, you know, into a week for
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football, you know, the more it's kind of like, I always make
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the joke of like, remember those little things you would like,
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not an Etch A Sketch, but like those little paintings where
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they're really blurry. And then you shake it and stare
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at it and it gets clear. That's kind of what how I see
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lines evolving throughout the week.
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But anyway, if you talked to me on Monday, Tuesday, I said I
6:16
would have told you, hey, Lions going to the Rams plus three
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down to +2. However, what we've seen over
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the last 24 hours is a lot of sharp buyback on San Francisco.
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Those minus twos are up to -2 1/2.
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All the -2 and a halfs with the 49ers are juiced up -115 -, 120.
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So it looks like it's creeping up to -3 on game day.
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And why is that important? One, because it's late sharp
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action and it's coming back on San Francisco.
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But more importantly, it's the fact that the Rams are a trendy
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dog tonight. Whoa, whoa, fade the trendy dog
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alert. You know, we like the gross
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dogs. We don't like the trendy dogs
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that are popular at the public overvalues.
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But if you look at the bet splits here at DraftKings, the
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49ers are only getting 38% of spread bets.
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So DraftKings big public book, basically 2/3 of betters are
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taking Rams in the points. Rams have a better record.
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They've played better as of late.
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They just remember them having a huge upset win over the Bills.
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So there's a lot of public bias to say, man, maybe the maybe
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quote UN quote, the wrong team is favored.
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The Rams take the points easily here.
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However, the combining the fact that we're getting this late
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breaking movement back towards San Fran, like I think a test
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case here is where will this line close?
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Like if this closes at 3, that's a great sign for San Fran.
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If it stays 2 1/2, you know, I guess you could make the case
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that's a good sign for the Rams. But the important thing here is
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that if you're in a feed the trendy dog situation, San Fran's
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only getting 38% of bets, but 49% of dollars at DraftKings.
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So low bets, higher dollars. The 49ers are contrarian in a
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heavily back game. It's very rare you get a
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contrarian favorite. Usually prime time, the public's
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going to hammer the favorite, but actually they're taking the
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dog here, which creates an opportunity to buy low and take
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a contrarian favorite. But also if you look at the
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angle here, which is what we talked about with the Rockets
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last night, is this is a money line play for me, guys.
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I'm not laying 2 1/2 or three with San Fran.
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They win by 1-2 or three and I lose or push my bet.
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So I money line San Francisco, I got them at -145 And I like one
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thing in particular. The Circa bet splits on the
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money line at Circa, which again prides itself on taking in sharp
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action, not denying wise guys, but taking their money, which is
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I think smart because you get Intel when you accept bets from
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big players. Doesn't mean they're always
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going to win, but it means typically that you have a track
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record of success. You're putting down big amounts.
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Circa's going to take that action.
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They're not going to say no to it.
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But at Circa, currently you're getting 53% of money line bets
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on San Fran, but 94% of money line dollars are on San
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Francisco. So basically half the tickets
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5050. And again, you can make the
8:49
case, oh, Rams pretty juicy there plus 120 ish 125 on the
8:54
money line. So tickets are split.
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But the big money wagers here, the 94 percent of dollars are on
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San Francisco. So I really like that bet split
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on the money line for San Francisco, which is why I money
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lined the Niners. But then here's where we get
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into the system matches and why this really sent me over the top
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to play San Fran. A lot of angles toward favorites
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and home favorites on Thursday Night Football.
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Let's start just in general, primetime favorites, they're 36
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and 10 straight up this season, 17% ROI.
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They're winning 78% of the time. We're not talking ATS, just just
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winning the game. Thursday night in particular,
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Thursday Night Football favorites are 13 and three
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straight up this season, 81%. They're two O 1 and 77, which is
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72% win rate, 6% ROI since 2006, a big sample size.
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Now, if you layer it even further, Thursday Night Football
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home favorites, they're 10 and one straight up this season.
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They're 22 and 679% over the past two seasons.
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Again, the short week typically favors quote UN quote, the
9:54
better team, the team that's expected to win, especially when
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you don't have to travel on a short week.
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Now let's dig a little deeper here.
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If you look at Kyle Shanahan against McVeigh, 10 and five
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straight up against McVeigh winning 2/3 of the time.
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I also put a little stock into the desperation angle here
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because right now, if the playoffs started today, the Rams
10:12
are in as a wild card team. If it started today, San
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Francisco is out. So this is a desperation play on
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the Niners, who again, are a game below 500 and need to win
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to get back into the playoff picture.
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So you add it all up, we got a trendy dog with the Rams.
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The lines coming back to San Francisco, they got a great bet
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split here. There's a ton of straight up
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betting system matches on the favorite and home favorite on
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Thursday night and in prime time.
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So Long story short, guys, I'm going 49ers.
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I got them on the money line. I want to say -140 -, 145
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somewhere around there in terms of the total.
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Again, the line did tick up. It opened 47, got up as high as
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50. Then he had some under money
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come in selling high and bring it back down to 48 1/2 at
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DraftKings. And This is why I think it's
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important to know not only when to place a bet, but when to lay
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off because at DraftKings looks like a sharp contrarian.
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Under under 48 1/2 only 31% bets 55% dollars, but Circa is
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showing 64% bets 94% dollars on the over.
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And again, if you're if you're playing the under, you missed
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the good number you wanted closer to 50.
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If you're playing the over, yeah, it's still available to
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you. But you know, game day movement
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is kind of going under now the over is 9:00 and 7:00 on
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Thursday Night Football this season.
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And you might have some rain tonight, 7 to 10 mile per hour
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winds mid 50s, maybe some rain early.
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So again, I love that that Dallas Cowboys over which landed
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on 47 and got the over 49 1/2. So I don't really want to play
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another, you know, quote UN quote public over.
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But also I'm wary of playing the under because it is it did rise
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based off the opening number. So this is a classic no bet for
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me. But my one play here on the
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conventional side, you know, money line total is going to be
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a money line play. 49ers. Let's win the damn game. 49ers
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on the money line. One player prop for you.
12:02
I'm going with George Kittle, baby.
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George Kittle over 61 1/2 receiving yards.
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Now I did notice there were some books that had different prices
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on this one, like let me see here, over 61 1/2 for Kittle is
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that FanDuel -110? Caesar's has 60 1/2 but it's
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over -125. And ESPN bet has 59 1/2 but it's
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over -130. So people may disagree.
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Some people might want that lower number and get the over 59
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1/2, but it's super juiced up -130 So I said, hey, let's just
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let's just get the -110 juice. I would have liked the lower
12:36
number, but I'll play the over 61 1/2 and there's a lot of
12:39
reasons to like this over 61 1/2.
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I want to mention to Rhythm, I forgot to mention this, but has
12:45
San Fran -2.8. So again, Rhythm's kind of with
12:49
us on San Fran money line. But in terms of George Kittle,
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he just caught 6 passes for 151 yards last week against the
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Bears. He's gone over this number in
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four of his last six games and he's been really good at home.
13:00
This reminds me a little bit of the CD Lamb over that we cashed
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on Monday night where he just really feasted home at home
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versus Rd. George Kill at home has gone
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over this number in four straight at Levi's Stadium and
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ten of his last 13. So he's played well at home.
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He leads the team in receiving yards, 800.
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He is second on the team and targets with 67.
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Only Jawan Jennings has more of a 78.
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The Rams, by the way, are giving up 225 passing yards per game
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and that is 23rd in the NFL. And remember, they just got lit
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up by Josh Allen. He passed for 342 yards last
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week in that shootout. By the way, this is a high total
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game, close to 50. Bodes well for offensive output.
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So I said, hey, let's play Kittle.
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And then I popped open my Rhythm app over 61 1/2.
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In the betting market, Rhythm is predicting 72 receiving yards.
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So I'm going to play George Kittle over 61 1/2 receiving
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yards along with San Fran to win the damn game.
13:59
Let's go Niners now a college hoops play for you.
14:02
Iowa State, Iowa. This is the most heavily bet
14:05
game of the night by far. It's a Fox Sports 1 game.
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So it's basically it's previewing Thursday Night
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Football. Every every bar in America will
14:12
have this one on most likely. It's obviously a huge match up
14:16
in the state of Iowa as you have kind of a, you know, 22IN state
14:19
rivals going at it. But it's most heavily bet game
14:22
of the night and we have a great reverse line move toward the
14:25
home dog. So going into this one, Iowa
14:27
State 7 and one ranked third in the country.
14:30
They've won four straight. Iowa 7:00 and 2:00.
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But they just lost to Michigan 8583.
14:36
Actually, you know, no shame in that.
14:38
Michigan is a team we've bet on and Arkansas beat him the other
14:41
day for us. But still really good team.
14:44
But what I like about this one is just the classic angle of a
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unranked versus ranked one popular home dog with a reverse
14:51
line move in their favor. This has kind of been our go to
14:53
play in college football and it's very similar here in
14:57
college hoops. So this game open with Iowa
15:00
State minus 6 1/2 on the road. They're now down to -5 1/2.
15:05
And why is that important? Because the public is saying
15:07
Iowa State is going to roll Iowa.
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They're ranked third in the country.
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They're seven and one. They've been super impressive to
15:13
start the year. So currently you're getting 65%
15:16
of bets on Iowa State. Yet the line didn't go further
15:21
toward Iowa State, getting 2/3 of bets up to -7 -, 8.
15:24
It's come down in favor of Iowa. Now the sign is down to 5 1/2.
15:28
So why is this line falling in favor of the Hawkeyes when 2/3
15:32
of bets are going? Cyclones tells us reverse line
15:35
movement. When the betting line goes away
15:36
from the popular side toward the unpopular side, it's a great
15:39
indication of smart money. Well, suddenly back game of the
15:42
night, I was only getting 35%. So even if you take away the
15:45
sharp line move, this is just a great contrarian play for
15:49
tonight. Now at Circa again, which caters
15:52
to sharper betters, 60% of bets are on Iowa and they're getting
15:55
96% of spread dollars. So a public book like DK has all
16:00
the drunk average Joe betters on Iowa State.
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The sharper guys out in Vegas actually are liking Iowa in this
16:07
play. You also have the classic
16:09
unranked versus rank, so buy low.
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Iowa's unranked. Iowa State is ranked #3 Iowa is,
16:14
by the way, 6 and O at home this year.
16:17
And I couldn't believe this, but this is actually kind of the
16:19
first true Rd. game for Iowa State this season.
16:22
They've either been at home or been on neutral courts with all
16:24
these different tournaments. You do have a one day rest
16:27
advantage for Iowa. They last played on December 6th
16:30
versus December or sorry, December 7th versus December 8th
16:34
for Iowa State. You're buying low a little bit.
16:36
Iowa's coming off a loss, whereas Iowa State has one four
16:39
straight and dog who can score system match.
16:42
If you know one thing about Iowa, by the way, how are there
16:45
so many Mccaffrey's? Just like every year there's
16:47
another McCaffrey brother and McCaffrey, the dad is the coach
16:50
too. But anyway, they're averaging 86
16:53
points a game. They always play, they always
16:55
have really good offense in Iowa.
16:56
So can you score enough to keep pace?
16:58
That's a good angle. And I'm going to bank on the
16:59
three-point shooting of Iowa. They're shooting 37% from 3
17:03
versus 35% for Iowa State. And then lastly, cherry on top,
17:09
Ken Palm is Iowa losing by 5. So we are getting a little bit
17:12
of actionable value with the hook 5 1/2.
17:14
And Rhythm says iOS should be plus 5.1.
17:17
So it's not a massive edge. It's not like Rhythm and you
17:20
know, Ken Palm have, you know, Iowa winning the game or only
17:23
losing by one or two. Like it's kind of right on the
17:25
number, but at least it's, you know, actual value with the hook
17:29
5 1/2 when again, the game lands on five.
17:31
Like if Ken Palm and Rhythm are right and it lands on five, we
17:34
win our plus 5 1/2. So most heavily back game of the
17:36
night, Publix all over Iowa State lines falling to Iowa
17:40
unranked versus ranked rested dog who can score.
17:44
Iowa's been good at home. Iowa State can win this game,
17:47
but can they win by 4 or less? I'm taking the points here with
17:50
Iowa got them at plus 5 1/2. So that about does it.
17:54
San Fran money line Kittle over 61 1/2 in Iowa plus 5 1/2.
18:00
Now, the thing that's been on my mind since last night and the
18:03
thing that I want to share with you, and I'm sure a lot of
18:05
people are about to roll their eyes and say, Josh, you're a
18:07
conspiracy theorist, Josh, you're crazy.
18:10
Why are you even bringing this up?
18:11
Well, first I want to bring it up because I got to I got to
18:15
mention it to somebody and my wife rolls her eyes when I talk
18:18
about it. But it's basically the topic of
18:21
what's going on in New Jersey right now.
18:23
So this is something where it has nothing to do with betting,
18:27
but I'm going to kind of give you what I'm, you know,
18:29
observing. And then I would love it if you
18:32
guys live in New Jersey. Tell me if I'm crazy.
18:35
If you've been tracking it on Twitter, you know, let me know
18:37
what you think. But basically, let me set the
18:40
stage by saying this. Over the last month or so,
18:44
people in New Jersey have been seeing a lot of strange lights.
18:48
And I know as I say this out loud, it's like you're crazy,
18:50
Josh, you're aliens, right? Well, I don't know, maybe they
18:53
are. But anyway, people in New Jersey
18:55
have been seeing these really weird lights hovering at night.
18:59
It takes place like around dinnertime up until like one or
19:02
two AM. And it's been happening every
19:04
single night for going on three weeks or a month.
19:08
And it's been evolving and it's now becoming a bit of a major
19:12
news story. And I did notice right before I
19:14
did the pod that The Associated Press, like I've been, I've been
19:18
kind of wondering like, you know, why isn't this the main
19:21
story on every news channel? You know, why is why aren't
19:24
every, why isn't everyone talking about this?
19:26
And then finally today The Associated Press mention it.
19:29
There's been a lot of local news stories about it.
19:32
But basically this has been evolving.
19:35
Now they've been calling it drones, mysterious drones.
19:39
However, the people who live in New Jersey, they've captured it
19:43
on on video cell phone cameras. They're really weird.
19:48
They hover for like several hours and people are wondering
19:51
like, you know, gas powered drones or electric powered
19:55
drones can't hover that long. They've kind of been shape
19:58
shifting. Again, I'm saying this out loud.
19:59
I'm like, Josh, you're insane. Why are you even talking about
20:01
this? But I got to get it off my chest
20:04
and I'm going to throw it to you guys and you're going to tell me
20:06
what you think. But anyway, my sister lives in
20:10
New Jersey and I, she called me up the other day.
20:13
She's like, you know, what are you doing for Christmas?
20:15
We're trying to figure out what to get my mom and dad.
20:19
She's my only sibling, my big sister.
20:21
She lives in New Jersey. And at the end of the
20:23
conversation, I'm like, I'm like, hey, like, have you heard
20:26
anything about like these drones in in New Jersey?
20:30
And typically I thought she would be like, yeah, you're
20:34
crazy, Josh, what do you think? They're aliens?
20:36
What are you insane? But my sister who is we're kind
20:39
of polar opposites. She is very straight edge.
20:44
She is very analytical. She is not into crazy things,
20:48
conspiracy theories. She's the complete opposite.
20:51
But the tone of her voice change and basically she said to me,
20:55
and This is why I'm bringing it up today, She's like, yeah,
20:58
actually I have like everyone in New Jersey's talking about it.
21:02
People are really scared. There's these basically they
21:06
have like these eerie feelings and no one knows what it looks,
21:09
what they what they are. And basically, like, some are
21:13
the size of like, I heard someone talk like they're the
21:16
size of an SUV. They make really loud noises.
21:20
They feel like they shift their, like, their, their figure.
21:25
They're like these weird orbs. And there's like this, like,
21:27
plasma around them. And they've been like
21:30
shapeshifting into airplanes with these blinking lights.
21:34
And my sister again, who I thought would totally dismiss
21:37
me, she's like, yeah, like everyone's talking about it.
21:40
No one knows what it is. The crazy thing is the US
21:44
government, and I don't want to get into like an anti government
21:47
thing, deep state thing. I'm not into that either.
21:50
But it's really weird the way they're talking about it because
21:52
it's starting to get broached in at the Pentagon at that, you
21:56
know, the Department of Defense and they keep saying very weird
22:00
things about it. They say, one, it's not our
22:04
military. It's also not an adversary.
22:07
Like everyone's like, oh, it's Iran, it's China, it's Russia,
22:11
and we don't know what it is, but you don't have to worry
22:13
about it. So on the one hand, it's like it
22:16
poses no threat to the public, yet these lights are showing up
22:19
every night for people in New Jersey and they're scared.
22:21
They don't know what it is. How can the government tell you?
22:24
On the one hand, you have nothing to worry about, and then
22:26
on the other hand, we have no freaking clue what it is.
22:29
Then to bring it to another level, my sister sent me this.
22:33
She is in a Facebook group. Again, Facebook is a lot of
22:35
misinformation, a lot of crazy stuff, but this is the mayor of
22:40
her town in New Jersey and I'm just going to read this to you,
22:43
he said. Critical update on the
22:45
mysterious drone activity. Today I attend an in person
22:48
briefing with representatives, representatives of New Jersey
22:51
State police in New Jersey Office of Homeland Security and
22:53
preparedness. While the meeting provided some
22:56
insights, it also raised more alarming questions.
22:58
Here are the key takeaways. 1 Congressman, yadda yadda yadda
23:02
from South Jersey reported drones following Coast Guard
23:05
ships. The Coast Guard witnessed 50
23:07
drones flying from the ocean to land and back.
23:09
Here's the other thing I forgot to mention.
23:10
A lot of these drones are hovering over and again, it's
23:13
weird that we're calling them drones because we don't really
23:16
know what they are, but they're hovering over a lot of military
23:18
installations. And then also if you want to get
23:21
really weird, there are reports of like these drones are coming
23:25
from the Atlantic Ocean. Again, I know this is crazy.
23:27
You're probably like Josh, I never knew you were so insane.
23:30
I hope you don't think that I just, I think it's interesting
23:33
and I have a family member who's now nervous about it.
23:36
But anyway, no known credible threat according to the New
23:39
Jersey offices of Homeland Security.
23:41
But the situation remains unsolved, unresolved.
23:45
State police have been investigating for three weeks.
23:47
The first sighting was November 18th.
23:49
And the other thing is every night there's more of them.
23:52
So if this is an adversary, you know, what will be the reason
23:56
for that? If This Is Us and it's a secret
23:58
program, it's some new military technology that we're testing
24:01
out, you know, why are you doing it in secret or why are you
24:04
being so obvious about it? The other thing is there are
24:08
people who have their own drones.
24:09
Like you can buy a drone at, you know, I don't know, Best Buy and
24:13
get it up there and try to get a, a view of it.
24:15
And they're all saying that when they put their drones up in the
24:18
air to basically get a, a view of these mysterious drones, all
24:23
of their basically all of their personal drones, they weirdly
24:28
immediately lose power and fall to the ground.
24:30
So is there something with these drones that they just shoot them
24:33
down? The other angle here is any time
24:35
we get close to them, they disappear again.
24:38
This is insane. This is X-Files, right?
24:41
Let me go on a little bit more. This was posted yesterday.
24:44
So the night before the 1st sighting, November 18th, there
24:47
were four sightings. Last night there were 180.
24:51
The drones fly for six to seven hours at night.
24:53
They are not detected in our radars.
24:55
The lights shut off when they're approached.
24:57
They aren't spotted in the daytime.
24:59
And then here's where it gets interesting.
25:01
This person who is a who is it? It's the the mayor of this New
25:06
Jersey town. But he asked three questions of
25:10
the state police and Homeland Security said one, can you
25:13
confirm that these drones have nothing to do with the US
25:15
military? The answer, yes.
25:18
Can you confirm these drones aren't tied to some large tech
25:21
company like Google, Amazon or Elon Musk?
25:23
They said yes. The next question was, are you
25:26
telling me that in this day and age, drones of the size of an
25:29
SUV can fly over us constantly for multiple weeks on end and we
25:34
have no idea who they belong to, where they're taking off from,
25:37
what their purposes? And their answer was, we don't
25:40
know. So I am not telling you that
25:44
it's aliens. Maybe it is, maybe it's not.
25:49
I just don't know what it is. And it's kind of freaking me out
25:52
a little bit because I have a sister who lives in Jersey.
25:55
I have two nieces who are five and three years old.
25:58
And whatever this is, if it's a foreign adversary, if it's our
26:02
own military, if it is a UFOUAP, whatever you want to call it, I
26:08
want to know. I want to make sure that my
26:10
sister is OK. But again, it's one thing to
26:14
have like the Internet conspiracy Internet, deep
26:17
Internet, like, you know, Twitter, go go on about these
26:19
things. It's different when, like, it
26:21
affects you and your own sister, who is not one to BS you or does
26:25
not prescribe to conspiracy theories, actually says, yeah,
26:28
like, we're worried about it. Like something's going on.
26:30
We're seeing these things every freaking night.
26:33
So I know I rambled on for quite a while there that had nothing
26:36
to do with sports betting, but I feel like you guys are my
26:40
friends. And, you know, we talk sharp,
26:42
sharp, blind moves every single day.
26:44
But but yeah, I've been, I've been deep diving trying to
26:48
figure out what the heck this is.
26:49
And I don't know, maybe, you know something, maybe you live
26:52
in New Jersey. If you do have any Intel that is
26:55
meaningful, please send me a direct message on Twitter at
26:58
Josh under score Insights. But again, my sister saying
27:02
she's nervous and it's real. And then I noticed The
27:05
Associated Press. This is not, you know, some
27:08
conspiracy website, The Associated Press tweeted right
27:11
before I went on a quote. A large number of mysterious
27:14
drones have been reported flying over parts of New Jersey in
27:17
recent weeks, sparking speculation and concern over who
27:20
sent them and why Is The Associated Press.
27:23
I mean, again, you, you can, you can kind of say how mainstream
27:27
media, you know, they, they're terrible and they're biased and
27:29
yadda, yadda, yadda. But I feel like if it gets to
27:31
the AP, something's going on here.
27:34
So please, if you have any information, if you know what's
27:36
going on, send me a direct message.
27:38
Let me know what you think. You can even say, Josh, you're
27:41
insane. Why are you even going into
27:42
this? But hey, as as my one of my
27:46
first favorite, you know, characters on The X-Files, Mr.
27:50
Fox Mulder used to say, I want to believe and the truth is out
27:53
there. So you probably didn't expect to
27:56
talk UA PS UF OS. But hey, it's on my mind and
28:00
maybe you've been hearing about it.
28:02
Maybe you haven't. But if you have any information,
28:04
please let me know. Let's Crowdsource this thing.
28:06
Let's figure out what the heck is going on.
28:10
Anyway, without further ado, let's finish up this podcast
28:13
here. Actually, to be honest, I was
28:15
debating like, do I talk about this on the pod?
28:16
Do I not? It's kind of a light day.
28:18
I only have, you know, 3 bets. Why not have some fun?
28:22
And I don't know, maybe, maybe talk this out amongst friends
28:26
and see what's going on. I sent it to my group chat and
28:28
they're like, oh, it's Santa Claus dropping the president.
28:31
I'm like, come on, dude. Like I'm being serious here.
28:33
Something's going on. And then people also brought up
28:36
the Chinese spy balloon. Remember that happened like a
28:38
year ago, I want to say it was during the Super Bowl where it
28:42
was going across the country. It was a surveillance, whatever
28:44
it was. That was kind of weird.
28:46
But the US government they're being I wish they would just
28:50
tell us what the truth is. That's all I asked for.
28:53
But anyway, finishing up the pod here on a very interesting
28:56
thirsty Thursday after talking UF OS UA.
28:59
PS This is the part of the pod where I first thank you for
29:02
taking the time out of your day and listening and hopefully
29:05
getting some sharp sports betting data-driven insights.
29:08
But then also, can you do me a big favor?
29:10
Can you give this podcast a five star review?
29:12
Spotify, iTunes, click the five stars, leave a nice comment if
29:15
you're so inclined, hit the follow button, recommend it to a
29:18
friend. Help me to continue to grow this
29:20
podcast here. That would mean a lot to me.
29:22
Secondly, if you enjoy the breakdowns and you want to learn
29:25
more about data-driven betting or as the holidays close in
29:28
here, we get closer and closer. Maybe you have no idea what to
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get. You're freaking out, not about
29:34
the the drones, what about what to get your mom, your uncle,
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your cousin, your nephew, your grandpa, your colleague, your Co
29:40
worker. You know what you should get
29:41
them. It's less than 20 bucks and they
29:43
can maybe turn 20 bucks into 100 bucks.
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Get them a book called the everything Guide to Sports
29:48
betting. It's available on Amazon as well
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as Barnes and Noble. But just go right to Amazon.com.
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Type in the everything Guide to sports betting.
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Pick up a copy for you or a friend.
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It makes a great easy stocking stuffer, not very expensive.
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And again, it's got everything I've learned in the industry.
30:02
How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
30:04
movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
30:06
person or online, how to shop for the best line, all included
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in the Everything Guide to Sports betting.
30:12
Pick one up and we'll get a beer, we'll sweat some games and
30:15
we'll talk UFOs. How about that next?
30:18
Have you taken advantage of a 7 day free trial of Juice Reel or
30:21
Rhythm yet? Hope you haven't, now is the
30:23
time. Juice Reel fantastic or I should
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say Rhythm is fantastic for their AI backed models and
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predictions for game bets and player props.
30:31
Juice Reel of course, where all the all systems go best bets are
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located. You can support the pod sign up
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to get those best bets for 499 a week.
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Again, our our is is basically is each pod worth $1.00 to you?
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I would hope to say the answer is yes.
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Really, Juice Reel's got it all. So it's a great app to download.
31:02
So download rhythm, download Juice Reel and you'll be off and
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running with a 7 day free trial. So how about does it guys?
31:09
Another pod here in the books. I'll leave you with a couple
31:11
things. One, whether I see you at the
31:12
Borgata in Atlantic City, which is in New Jersey, or if I see
31:19
you at the Borgata, Atlantic City, the the brook in New
31:23
Hampshire, wherever it may be. See, I'm screwing up my own
31:26
spiel here at the end in my neck of the woods in Massachusetts at
31:29
the Encore Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield.
31:32
They're out in the desert where the true grinders get down,
31:34
where Billy Walters senses number runners, where the lowest
31:36
use possible stop the South Point or sweat and Sharp and
31:39
train plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool when the
31:42
Rockets win it at the buzzer. Basically on the money line,
31:45
you're going to walk up to me and you're going to show me a
31:47
Rockets always money line. Short favorites ticket AU TEP
31:50
plus 14 1/2 a Knicks under but man southeast Louisiana and
31:54
Fresno State man BYU just had to have that meaningless dunk at
31:58
the end. But anyway, you guys a winning
32:00
night last night felt good to get back in the green.
32:02
Let's see if we can keep it going and have a winning night
32:04
for tonight. So as always, stay sharp, stay
32:06
contrary and bet against the public place yourself on the
32:09
side of the house. Always be with the smart money,
32:11
never against it. Will smart money win every time?
32:14
Unfortunately not. You get Fresno plus 27 1/2.
32:16
They close plus 25 1/2 and you lose the bet.
32:19
But here's one thing I can I can tell you, even though you beat
32:23
closing lines and might have some bad beats here and there,
32:26
if you consistently place yourself against the house with
32:28
the with the pros or sorry, with the house against the public
32:34
with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get some CLV.
32:37
If we can do that long term, we're going to be successful
32:39
sports bettors. So enjoy your thirsty Thursday
32:42
night, everybody. We'll be back at it tomorrow,
32:45
which we episode 182 of the All systems Go sports Betting
32:48
podcast Power by Rhythm. Good luck everybody, have a
32:52
great Thursday night and remember the truth is out there.