Latest / The Curve / TCW80: So... what the heck happened to the stock markets?
Transcript
- 0:00Hi and welcome to the Curve Weekly. The podcast that keeps you up to date with all the money,
- 0:06business and stock market tea. Everyone should experience for us at least once in their lives
- 0:10and Annie shouldn't miss out just because she can't afford it. Help me, I ain't poor.
- 0:14But can we start this episode by talking about the Martha Stewart stuff?
- 0:17I was going to say about my TikTok video this morning.
- 0:19Oh yes, she did a TikTok. We're back, baby. We're fucking back.
- 0:23We're talking about markets. The markets, fucking back.
- 0:26If anyone wants to sing in the car with their children apologies for me.
- 0:29Thank you.
- 0:30Also, if anyone wants to follow us on TikTok, we've got a stunning 10,000 followers.
- 0:34It's absolutely going off on there. I was just saying to Vic, I think she was born to be a TikTok star.
- 0:39Like, I really think she's so good at it. Like, looks and key.
- 0:43Like, almost at the territory and I don't know what it is, but I think it's because you...
- 0:47You've produced me really well.
- 0:49No, I honestly think it's you're a bit gummy.
- 0:51Like, as in, there's this sort of underside to you that's like...
- 0:54A bit weird.
- 0:55Yeah, like in a good way. I honestly don't mean that.
- 0:58I'm friends with that to another friend. Like, why are they like...
- 1:00I never knew that because that's such a weirdo.
- 1:01Yeah, she's super weird, but like, I think your sometimes like ability...
- 1:07It's almost like...
- 1:09I don't think that many people would have seen that side to you, you know?
- 1:12But for some reason when you go on to TikTok mode, I'm like, there she is.
- 1:16We, so we had a like a high tea yesterday with one of our mentors, business mentors.
- 1:22And we went to the most beautiful hotel.
- 1:24It was like, what was it called?
- 1:25Sheraton.
- 1:26Sheraton. Anyway, it was in the middle of London and we went and met her and her daughter came,
- 1:31which was actually quite cute.
- 1:32So funny that I was so hungry on my way there.
- 1:34That I bought a pre-scoffed it before this meeting.
- 1:38And then she orders this beautiful high tea.
- 1:39And I was like, I'm so excited.
- 1:41You know those things you see in the movies that are like the tear kind of like,
- 1:44they almost look like different levels of a house kind of and then they have like...
- 1:48Series at the bottom takes at the top.
- 1:51I was just absolutely going for it.
- 1:53But anyway, but we were talking about the idea of like getting into places or like...
- 1:58I think I'm picked.
- 1:59Oh, that's right.
- 2:00She was like, I wasn't, I get in everywhere or something.
- 2:03And we were like, what do you mean?
- 2:04She's like, oh, I've got different approaches to it.
- 2:06You know, I've got my like...
- 2:07I'm very strategic.
- 2:08You know, I'm very observant.
- 2:09Yeah, she said it for me.
- 2:11It was like running through the different approaches.
- 2:14Anyway, her daughter was like, oh, I have to leave.
- 2:16Like she gives me the signal that's like black bunny or something.
- 2:20Get out of here.
- 2:20Yeah, I'm about to go out.
- 2:21I'm about to do it.
- 2:22And so she's just like, I have to duck out.
- 2:24Anyway, it kind of spiraled into being like, God imagine if we...
- 2:27It's like a game.
- 2:28Yeah.
- 2:29Especially when I'm like, can I do this?
- 2:30It's quite interesting.
- 2:31Yeah, it is interesting.
- 2:32Anyway, we were saying like, God, we're so chicken with that kind of thing.
- 2:35We really need to like step it up.
- 2:37And then we were still talking about the Olympics and how Snoop Dogg was there
- 2:40and how much he was being paid and Martha Stewart.
- 2:43And then she said something like, did you know that
- 2:46she was one of the few women that's been jailed
- 2:49or like sentenced to prison time for inside trading, like that?
- 2:53And I had no idea.
- 2:55And it's like, she looks like there's like home-making woman,
- 2:59home-making like...
- 3:00Because she know for cooking and cooking show, yeah.
- 3:02And very like, quite wholesome.
- 3:05The wholesome, yeah, wholesome is a good word.
- 3:06Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- 3:07Anyway, you're like, what?
- 3:08Yeah.
- 3:09I kind of knew she went to jail.
- 3:10I just kind of didn't know that that's right.
- 3:11I had no idea she went to jail.
- 3:12And then we looked into it about like, you know,
- 3:15what happened and blah, blah, blah.
- 3:16And we were just sort of joking about how...
- 3:18God, she's at the Olympics.
- 3:19How cool would it be to go and get an interview with her?
- 3:23Because apparently...
- 3:23And she was like, do it.
- 3:25You got it, yeah.
- 3:26I don't know if you're trying.
- 3:26Get on the train.
- 3:27And we were like, oh my goodness, oh my goodness.
- 3:29She was like, she's at the full seasons.
- 3:30Just go do it.
- 3:31She's like, this is perfect.
- 3:31Opportunity to go test the theory.
- 3:33And I was like, actually, it would be quite good content
- 3:35if we were like, here we are outside Martha Stewart's hotel room.
- 3:38Yeah.
- 3:39Trying to get her on the podcast.
- 3:41Talk about it inside of training.
- 3:43But anyway, Emily, our divine podcast producer
- 3:46has just been looking into some of the stats
- 3:48around why she was jailed and what happened.
- 3:50And she thought it was so fascinating.
- 3:52Because our mentor, LJ, was saying she was like,
- 3:55so many guys do inside of training.
- 3:58But like, hardly any of them get jailed for it.
- 4:00And it was just like the fact that they punished her so badly.
- 4:04I'm just having a look at some of the stats.
- 4:06The case revolved around her sale of iron clone systems.
- 4:10So she had stocks in, I was ages ago, like, December 2001.
- 4:15And she sold, was it like, 4,000 shares just before the stock price,
- 4:19like plummeted.
- 4:20She was in jail for five months.
- 4:23And her profile just like skyrocketed.
- 4:27Oh, right.
- 4:28So this was actually almost like good for her career.
- 4:30Which surprisingly, I mean, it doesn't usually happen like that.
- 4:35But I also think it's like a 85 to 90% of those convicted of inside training.
- 4:39I mean, but that's representative of the finance industry.
- 4:42Do you know what I mean?
- 4:43It's like, it probably would be more 50, 50 if there was 50, 50.
- 4:48And what I thought was kind of interesting is that
- 4:50apparently it was her broker or someone that gave her the inside
- 4:53training being like, you know, sell your shares.
- 4:55This is about to happen.
- 4:56I would have thought he'd be the one that goes to jail, not her.
- 5:00You know, like, she's gonna sell the stocks,
- 5:02but she didn't really technically.
- 5:04Yeah, like she has to sell them through her broker,
- 5:06but she benefits from the brokers, the one that sells on her the heart.
- 5:10Yeah.
- 5:11Okay, I got you.
- 5:12I mean, I don't know in this particular case,
- 5:13but yeah, he probably should have been done as well.
- 5:15He probably got struck off or lost his job or something.
- 5:18I think I've found out.
- 5:19But it'll be like, if you, if we were in courts
- 5:22and you worked at a company that was like about to say this biotech company
- 5:26and you were like,
- 5:28the company's about to put out a really terrible result
- 5:30and the shoe price is going to tank.
- 5:32And I owned heaps of shares.
- 5:33And you were like, if I give you this tip,
- 5:35will you have your profits with me?
- 5:37Oh, so you reckon there's like a bit of that.
- 5:39Yeah, definitely.
- 5:40There was one in Australia.
- 5:41Do you remember Roxie Jussinka?
- 5:43Yes.
- 5:43Her husband got done.
- 5:45Yeah.
- 5:45Her husband has been friends.
- 5:47They worked at different companies.
- 5:48And one was giving inside information to the other.
- 5:52Like before economic results were released.
- 5:55It was something around data.
- 5:56They made so much money.
- 5:58They had a, like, pin house apartment in Bondi.
- 6:01They had like, let's say these G wagons.
- 6:04I'm like, they were stupid.
- 6:06And that they were so extravagant and fleshy
- 6:09with their winnings.
- 6:11I guess.
- 6:12Yeah.
- 6:12And then they went to jail heat,
- 6:14the best friend dobed and the other friend.
- 6:15Who was wiretapped.
- 6:18And now to get a shorter sentence.
- 6:19Wait, so like they basically put a little
- 6:22one friend and were like,
- 6:23Hey, if you want a shorter sentence
- 6:24and want to capture your other friend.
- 6:26Oh my God, an absolute.
- 6:27An arm.
- 6:28Weasel.
- 6:29Yeah.
- 6:30I mean, to be fair, if you're doing insider trading,
- 6:32it's probably not a shock that they didn't go in,
- 6:33like, raise up their friends and use the example.
- 6:35That is so interesting.
- 6:37So it was in 2007, 2008.
- 6:39Yeah.
- 6:40And her, she documented every day her outputs
- 6:43that she wore to court.
- 6:45And she blew up.
- 6:47Like, everyone was like, it was pretty funny.
- 6:50So she's kind of taking the piss.
- 6:51She was like, yeah, these are my outfits.
- 6:53She works in PR.
- 6:53So she was like, perfect.
- 6:56Yeah, she was probably like, hey babe,
- 6:57can you do some insider trading?
- 6:59Yeah, so that I can get a big deal of attention.
- 7:01So he can get some great PR.
- 7:03Yeah.
- 7:03Well, I mean, it's worked,
- 7:04because they are one of the most well-known families
- 7:06in Australia now.
- 7:07Yeah.
- 7:08That is so interesting.
- 7:09God, I had no idea.
- 7:10But this is why companies, public companies,
- 7:13anybody in like a senior position
- 7:15or access to like,
- 7:17privy information that might actually move the stock price.
- 7:20They have certain windows that they're legally allowed
- 7:22to sell their shares.
- 7:24And it's after everyone knows that information.
- 7:26So say a financial result comes out in July,
- 7:31then from maybe like end of July to end of September
- 7:35is when anyone in the company can sell or buy shares.
- 7:38And then it's closed.
- 7:39So it's not just before a financial result or anything.
- 7:41Right.
- 7:42What has been happening?
- 7:44What are we talking about today?
- 7:45I'm not much.
- 7:46You know, like much.
- 7:47Oh my God, there has been a shit like going on.
- 7:49Hasn't yet.
- 7:50Okay, give us an overview for anyone that's missed
- 7:52what's been going on.
- 7:53So things kind of started maybe like last Friday.
- 7:57And there was a few financial results
- 8:00in on the US stock market that didn't do too well.
- 8:02Like Amazon, for example,
- 8:04when people were getting a bit like,
- 8:05oh, this is not a good sign.
- 8:06Then come Monday.
- 8:08Monday was what they call it.
- 8:10Black Monday.
- 8:11There was like blood on the streets.
- 8:12Monday made him.
- 8:13Honestly, the headlines.
- 8:14Well, you just like almost laughable.
- 8:16Like, this is the newspapers time.
- 8:18We're like, we got news.
- 8:20Anyway, Japan was the first stock market
- 8:23to crash, quote unquote, crash.
- 8:26It was down about 12% in one day.
- 8:29I'm worried about it, say anything,
- 8:30because isn't he quite invested in Japan?
- 8:33Yeah.
- 8:33No, he hasn't, I mean, he doesn't,
- 8:34he doesn't care about this shit.
- 8:36You know, he's a long term investor.
- 8:38He's like, he's not commentating on daily moves.
- 8:41Why have, why have normal people cracked on to like
- 8:45the way to invest?
- 8:45Like it's actually hilarious how many people
- 8:48freak out, pulling them out.
- 8:50Like, because people would be out of jobs,
- 8:51like traders and brokers,
- 8:52like their whole job is to buy and sell shares.
- 8:55Right.
- 8:56But they need to be seen to be like, to their clients.
- 8:58Oh, don't worry, we sold shares before the crash
- 9:00or we could see it coming or like,
- 9:01yeah, it's all of like, it's all sales per day.
- 9:03Yeah.
- 9:04So anyway, yeah, Japan started off first.
- 9:07They fell about 20%
- 9:09overall over the last kind of week or so.
- 9:11Is it still down?
- 9:12No.
- 9:12So let me get to that.
- 9:14Oh, sorry.
- 9:14Yeah, sorry.
- 9:14We're just sitting the ceiling as I'm trying.
- 9:16So yeah, Japan started.
- 9:18It was their worst day since 1987.
- 9:21So why didn't I buy shares?
- 9:22Like, honestly, I need to be so much more onto it.
- 9:26I love that's your reaction.
- 9:27That's great.
- 9:28But coin then fell.
- 9:30Gold, gold did really, really well
- 9:33because gold is considered like a safe haven.
- 9:36So everyone either sells their stocks,
- 9:37put it into cash or into gold.
- 9:39Tech stocks in America.
- 9:40So all the large tech companies were hit.
- 9:43US stock market.
- 9:44UK, everything was.
- 9:45When you say it was hit, what was it hit with?
- 9:47People pulling the money out.
- 9:48People freaking out.
- 9:49People going, oh my god, I'd rather hold cash.
- 9:51This could be there.
- 9:52This could be a really, really massive correction
- 9:54or really massive force.
- 9:55So people freaking out.
- 9:56Oh my god.
- 9:56Did you take any money out?
- 9:57No.
- 9:58Emily, would you have taken money out
- 10:00if you hadn't even invested?
- 10:03Good girl.
- 10:07Wait, come over to the microphone
- 10:08because now I can hear you.
- 10:09This is our lovely producer, Emily.
- 10:11One moment, we're just gonna.
- 10:12Yeah, okay.
- 10:13So Emily, did you, if you have any shares invested,
- 10:16would you have sold them
- 10:17when all of this shit was going down?
- 10:18No, because I'm investing for the long term.
- 10:22But I need to have you well.
- 10:24A question and this might be really stupid.
- 10:25Why?
- 10:27Sorry, you have to rephrase that question
- 10:28and take out the smoke.
- 10:29You know what this podcast stands for?
- 10:31I have a very important question
- 10:32that is completely valid.
- 10:35Why did all of these stock markets not crash
- 10:39but dip in the first place?
- 10:41Yes.
- 10:42So there was some unemployment data
- 10:45that came out of the US
- 10:46that showed that unemployment was at a three-year high.
- 10:49So there was like economic data in the US
- 10:51and everyone's like, oh my goodness,
- 10:52unemployment is super high.
- 10:53The US is gonna head into recession.
- 10:55That was one point.
- 10:57The second point was that
- 10:59the US stock market had done really well.
- 11:00Like we were talking about in a video
- 11:02that was up like over 150%.
- 11:04You know, all these stocks have done really, really well.
- 11:06And so people are like,
- 11:07is this the top?
- 11:08You know, like is this should we,
- 11:10should we take some money out?
- 11:11True takes of profits.
- 11:12But it was mainly around the US
- 11:14heating inter-recession.
- 11:14It's the biggest stock market,
- 11:15it's the biggest economy
- 11:17when America sneezes.
- 11:18The world.
- 11:19It's not on this side.
- 11:20It's a flu.
- 11:20Yeah.
- 11:21So then we come back to this microphone, please.
- 11:25Thank you for that explanation.
- 11:26All right.
- 11:27Emily, I would love to know
- 11:28if you have any more questions
- 11:30or thoughts on that.
- 11:31What happens
- 11:32because now that we're coming up
- 11:34are we now back to normal
- 11:35or has that had a knock on effect?
- 11:38You could be out of a job.
- 11:40Differside?
- 11:41It's done, okay.
- 11:42You can take the day off, Emily.
- 11:44You're going out.
- 11:46Where she's done.
- 11:47Yeah.
- 11:47Yes.
- 11:48So everything is pretty much rebounded now.
- 11:51Not back up to where it was,
- 11:53but it's pretty much,
- 11:54it's like pretty much caught.
- 11:54It's so close.
- 11:56Like the S&P 500 was up to
- 11:591.5% yesterday,
- 12:01so on Thursday.
- 12:02And that was its best day since 2022.
- 12:05So things are looking right back up there.
- 12:07The S&P 500 is now 12%
- 12:10up this year.
- 12:11So, okay.
- 12:11Let me say up this year.
- 12:12This is from the start of the year.
- 12:14It's nothing to do with the last week.
- 12:16So it's gone.
- 12:17It was going up like this
- 12:18and then it fell a bit.
- 12:19And then it's now back.
- 12:20It's not right back up to where it was on,
- 12:22I mean, the stock market started falling on Friday.
- 12:24So it's not back up to where it was,
- 12:26you know, a few weeks ago,
- 12:27but it's pretty much there.
- 12:28It's like,
- 12:30it's not concerning.
- 12:31It's what I'm saying.
- 12:32So what I'm hearing is
- 12:33basically I napped for a few days
- 12:35and I've missed the boxing day sale.
- 12:37Yeah.
- 12:38Monday was the biggest on sale day.
- 12:41Tuesday, everything was pretty much back to full price.
- 12:42Ah!
- 12:43Yeah.
- 12:44And then everything just kept going up and up.
- 12:45I mean, I don't know what today's going to do,
- 12:46but it looks pretty good.
- 12:48Everyone's pretty positive.
- 12:48Like, how do I get the so-and-trade sale?
- 12:50And be like,
- 12:51oh my god, the world's ending to like,
- 12:52oh, it's fine.
- 12:53You know, it's like so dramatic.
- 12:55It's like, just take a chill pill.
- 12:57But that's markets for you.
- 12:59Honestly, this is what happened.
- 13:01It won't be the last time this happens.
- 13:03You know, we'll probably see the happen again.
- 13:05And it's just a case of like realising
- 13:08how quickly stop markets came back.
- 13:10It was literally the next day.
- 13:12Do you know what I think we need to do?
- 13:13We need to start a star chart or something.
- 13:15So every time it has a shitter,
- 13:16and then it rebounds.
- 13:17We put a star on.
- 13:18Good idea.
- 13:19So that every star green star.
- 13:20So that every time that we're like panic, panic, panic.
- 13:23So say COVID happened again.
- 13:25We look at the star chart and we think
- 13:28this happens all the time.
- 13:29Like, not necessarily COVID in touch
- 13:31with that never happens again.
- 13:32But the point is is that things will always happen.
- 13:35And unless the world is literally ending,
- 13:38they will bounce back again.
- 13:39And the reason, like, so the Japanese stop market
- 13:42fell 12%.
- 13:43The reason people panic and take their money out
- 13:45is because I think it's going to fall further
- 13:46and they want to almost protect.
- 13:48Which is like counter-intuitive
- 13:49because then it falls even further, right?
- 13:51So I guess as soon as people are taking money out, it's like,
- 13:54but if you if you if you were on to it say
- 13:57and you sold your shares just before it crashes
- 14:01and then bought it back right at the bottom,
- 14:03you'd be you'd be amazing.
- 14:04But that never happens.
- 14:06You can never know when these are things are going to happen.
- 14:08And what's going to trigger them,
- 14:10what's going to trigger a sudden movement
- 14:13in the stock market like this.
- 14:15So what people will do is they'll probably wake up,
- 14:17see the stock markets down with the Japanese one,
- 14:19down 12% take their money out.
- 14:21Then they wake up the next day, it's gone back up.
- 14:23And you've just if you've done nothing,
- 14:26you would have been way better off.
- 14:27But now that now you've pulled your money out at the low
- 14:30and now you're going to put it back in at the high
- 14:33because the market's rebounded.
- 14:34So it's like, it's honestly don't feel like you have to do something.
- 14:39I reckon there's so much.
- 14:40It's psychology.
- 14:41It's fragile, male, finance, bro, ego,
- 14:44where they're like, I can time the market.
- 14:46It's like, that's what it is, right?
- 14:48Because if everyone had the view of a long-term investing plan,
- 14:53which is like proven time and time and time again,
- 14:55to be the way to do it.
- 14:57And even if the situation went on for a few months,
- 15:00you know, say we did have a bad Monday,
- 15:02Tuesday, next week, next week, next week.
- 15:04It was quite bad.
- 15:05And you were still investing through those months.
- 15:08And then it started rebounding again.
- 15:10You'd still be in a bit of position.
- 15:12You're investing for four, five, six, even 10, 20 years.
- 15:17I actually think this is a really good time to bring up
- 15:20dollar cost averaging again.
- 15:21Because this was a concept that I definitely took a while to understand.
- 15:27And it's actually really simple.
- 15:29Basically, it's the idea that you can like average the price.
- 15:34You can like benefit when the price is low.
- 15:36And you can also like, you get more for your money.
- 15:38If you're putting in a dollar a week, can I do this?
- 15:41I feel like because for some reason, every time I feel, yeah,
- 15:44I don't know why, but let me try to tell me if I do this right.
- 15:48Let's just say you're investing $100 a week,
- 15:51but a year.
- 15:52So it's like every Monday, well, by the way,
- 15:54I imagine how much you've invested.
- 15:56So every week, you put $100 in on a Monday.
- 15:58Yeah.
- 15:59Let's just keep it super easy.
- 16:01Say every single week, the price goes up a dollar or down a dollar.
- 16:06So say it's like week one, the share price is 50,
- 16:09the next week, the share price is 60, the next week,
- 16:11the share price is 70, 80 and so on.
- 16:13And then sometimes it's not going back in the opposite direction.
- 16:16Then it goes back up again.
- 16:17So it's like the idea of, well, I guess like the,
- 16:20the point I'm trying to make is that like, if you're consistently buying over time,
- 16:24you get to like that, the price that you pay averages out,
- 16:28rather than trying to like buy it certain times.
- 16:31It means that when it has dropped, like for example,
- 16:33if you were still investing across the last, you know,
- 16:36a couple of weeks,
- 16:37you would have got some really amazing deals,
- 16:39because you were investing when it was low,
- 16:41and it means that when it's like kind of middle or it's high,
- 16:44that'll averages out.
- 16:45Yeah.
- 16:46Does that kind of like, does that make sense?
- 16:47Come here, Emily, if you don't understand, because
- 16:50and so if you're buying, if you're $100, say it's $20 a share,
- 16:55so you're, you get, you end up buying five shares.
- 17:00As that price increases, you can only afford to purchase less,
- 17:03a lower number of shares.
- 17:05So that you're $100 and you're buying shares that are $30, you can buy less,
- 17:09you're buying $40, you buy less.
- 17:11So then when the share price drops to $10, you can now buy more.
- 17:16So then when it rebounds again,
- 17:17you've got that bigger pool of shares that you've bought at a lower price.
- 17:21You've got a greater number.
- 17:22This is the stuff that confuses me because you're thinking about the difference
- 17:25in the share price and the number of shares.
- 17:28That means you can buy, which always.
- 17:29Because your $100, your $100 is made up of a number of shares in the price.
- 17:34If the price is high, the number of shares is low.
- 17:37If the price is low, the number of shares is high.
- 17:39But it's kind of irrelevant.
- 17:40Like, no, because you're buying shares.
- 17:43So then if you can now buy 100 shares at a lower price rather than
- 17:4820 at a higher price, win those 100 shares, the share price doubles,
- 17:53you've got massive amounts of money because you've got 100 shares rather than
- 17:57would it make more sense in that case to do this on a weekly basis, to invest on a weekly basis?
- 18:04Or because I like to just invest monthly and then forget about it and then I've been like,
- 18:09I can have done my bit.
- 18:10But with dollar cost averaging, would it be better to go in every week and invest a certain amount
- 18:15of money? No. No, it's like you don't know.
- 18:19It's more just about being consistent and regular from a psychological point of view.
- 18:23It's like if weekly works for you, that's great.
- 18:25Admittedly though, if you were investing each month,
- 18:28you wouldn't have got Monday's low prices unless you were investing on that day.
- 18:34So you're always going to be missing out on cheap prices at some point.
- 18:39But who knows the next month,
- 18:41it might, share prices might be lower.
- 18:43It's more the trend, you're not trying to get the day if that makes sense of the low prices.
- 18:48If these prices then fall again and stayed low, then when you next deposit your monthly amount,
- 18:53you'll get those prices. So what you were saying before is it's like the lower the price of the
- 18:59share, the more you can get with your money. Yeah. The further your money goes in terms of what you
- 19:03can purchase. It's like going into a clothing store and saying you've got $100 and you can buy
- 19:09two dresses with that of $50. If those two dresses were now $25, you can buy four dresses.
- 19:16And then you walk out of the store that shop then goes back to putting those dresses at full price
- 19:21of $50 and you're like, woohoo, I've got $200 worth of dresses. Does that make sense?
- 19:27Yeah, that's kind of what it would be. It's basically I think also Emily,
- 19:30on I know exactly what you mean because it's like, okay, well, if it's changing all the time,
- 19:34should I just invest every day because it means I get... Putting every minute, every second,
- 19:37like that's impossible. I think it's more just like the premise of it and the main kind of key
- 19:42takeaway is ignore what the stock market does. That's kind of... It's not so in regularly invest
- 19:48regardless of what it's doing, opposed to needing to be like getting all of the deals.
- 19:54And I think it's just being aware that this stuff happens all the time, but over the long term,
- 19:59whether it's 5, 10, 20 years, however long you're investing, the stock market goes up.
- 20:05So it's like, you just need to remember that. Even though there will be days, months, weeks when
- 20:10it's down, over the long term it goes up. If you're listening to this and by the way,
- 20:15this isn't too shamey, I'm just curious. If you did make a decision to settle, I'd love to hear
- 20:20what was going through your head or like how much you sold and how you feel now, because I think
- 20:24it's really interesting to learn. You know, it's fine, like unless you've lost millions of dollars,
- 20:28maybe you won't want to be investing, but like say it was a few hundred dollars and you're like,
- 20:32oh, I did it because this is how I felt. It's just a good, it's good to reflect on that, I think,
- 20:37because and actually every time that I don't make a decision to sell when I'm, when it's low,
- 20:43I'm so proud of myself on high insides. It's kind of like not acting on impulse in any situation.
- 20:48It's like give it a minute, take a breather and make a decision when you're feeling a bit more
- 20:53calm and settled rather than like in the heat of the moment. Yeah. So New Zealanders are leaving
- 20:59the country, so I'm not surprised. I know. Sorry, New Zealand, love you. I'm always behind.
- 21:06But New Zealanders are flocking like birds to Australia, flying across the Dutch.
- 21:12Okay, like concerning for a little long New Zealanders. I know, I mean, I did this when I was
- 21:1621 or 22 because it's so hard to get. Yeah. I think I think pay and like living in that part of
- 21:26the world is really expensive, but for some reason, salaries don't reflect it and Australian pay is
- 21:32just so much better. It's the same over here, like it's way more expensive to live. Actually,
- 21:36it's not really. I wouldn't say salaries generally across the board a bit, but Australia is one of
- 21:40those ones where it's like, it's still expensive, but and it's known for having good salaries. It's
- 21:45known for paying well. And yes, it's expensive, but it's all relative. It's like if your rent's a
- 21:50little bit more expensive, but you're getting paid more, it's like, why can't companies, why is that
- 21:53not changed or why to like, what are your thoughts on why companies in Australia? I know it's a huge
- 21:59generalisation, but why do they pay more than New Zealand salaries better economy? The economy is
- 22:04doing better. It's a government policy as well. But in New Zealand, we came out of the pandemic,
- 22:09we wretched it up our interest rates. I don't know if that's a word. Wretched it up. Yeah,
- 22:16wretched it up. No, babe. Hold on. Wretched it. Wretched. Oh, wretched, like R-A-T-C-H-E-T.
- 22:22Yeah, you've wretched it up. Oh my god, wretched. You're right. How bizarre. Yeah, wretched it up.
- 22:27In slang or informal use, wretched. I don't like it, but we can use that. So anyway, New Zealand
- 22:34wretched it up. Wretched it up. It's interest rates post pandemic, which lead to higher mortgage
- 22:43rates, recession, all of that. So we've had a bit of a tough few years, and Australia didn't do
- 22:49that as aggressively. And so they've almost had like a better economic situation post COVID. So
- 22:58that's meant that companies are doing better. People are spending all that. So I guess they haven't
- 23:02had the effects as much as we have of like a cost of living crisis inflation, all of that. So
- 23:08people are like, cool, let's go there, we get pay more, we get a bit of life. I have seen a lot
- 23:12of people on social media be like, move to Sydney. It's in a live-in year high. The number of people
- 23:18going. One percent of the population has left to go to Australia. Holy shit, that's a lot.
- 23:24How many people is that? About 50,000 people. Wow. Yeah, which is an 85% increase on
- 23:302022. So these are 2023 figures. Yeah. And you get paid an equivalent of 30% more over there.
- 23:38Yeah, I'm like, I'm kind of like, what are we doing? What are we doing? No, I'm actually, I was about
- 23:44to say, can you remember here instead of Australia. But I think that's quite scary for the New Zealand
- 23:49Economy, for New Zealand businesses. It's already pretty quiet there in terms of bars and
- 23:54hospitality and gyms having enough people to have memberships and I just can't at worries me a
- 24:01bit. And having to, it's so difficult to attract people back in. So for example, it's so hard
- 24:09to attract not only locals and residents back to the country, but then let alone people from
- 24:16other countries and immigrants and, you know, to help fuel the economy. Like we've seen it in the UK
- 24:20at the moment, like all the anti-racism protests, immigration protests. It's like. The vast
- 24:26almost opposite of like what? That's because Britain opened its doors. Oh, foreign, like,
- 24:32economy immigrants. Yeah. Yeah. And so now there's all these riots of like, so I mean, it's slightly
- 24:36different. I'm just kind of marrying the two up, but I'm just saying like it's, you have to do a lot
- 24:42incentivising to get people back. It's really, it's hard, it's easier to keep people than it is
- 24:47to win them back if that makes sense. It's kind of like customers. Yeah. It's like a
- 24:50solid cancel something. It's much easier to keep a customer happy, give a bit of a discount,
- 24:55then go and win them over from it. So all these 1% of New Zealanders moving to Australia might
- 24:59never come home. It's kind of the point. It's like, oh shit, maybe our population will decrease,
- 25:03our economy will be. And to be honest, economy's gone cycle. Like there'll be a period of time when
- 25:08maybe Australia doesn't do so well. And then we get a whole lot of Aussies coming to New Zealand.
- 25:12But right now, it's not very good. Anyway, speaking of people moving countries as well, the UK
- 25:19is one of the worst places in terms of tax. And people are leaving the UK. Is this all because
- 25:26it breaks it? No, new Prime Minister. New Prime Minister has put in rules. I thought we had
- 25:31high hopes for the new Prime Minister from like, I thought that the whole point was people kind of
- 25:35happy about it. Yeah. The general population is obviously that's why I got in. But it's more the
- 25:41higher end wealthy people are being hired. Because it's a left government. And it's the first time
- 25:46I've had someone. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. So in a long time, they're planning to scrap this
- 25:51like peripheral. Oh my god. Referential tax treatment for preferential. Referential tax treatment
- 25:58for rich foreign residents. So there's this thing in the UK called if you're non-dom, so you're
- 26:03non-domasiled. You live in the UK. What is domasiled? Like living? Like, well, like, where do you come
- 26:08from? Like, we're domasiled in the UK at the moment. What is that word? Non-dom. Non-dom. Honestly,
- 26:15when you said that, I thought we were talking about dominant tricks. Domasiled. I was like, they're
- 26:19non-dom. They're not the dominance. So I'm a non-dom. I'm a non-dom. You're a non-dom.
- 26:24Really? You're passive. The country that a person treats is their permanent home. Okay. So you
- 26:30are a non-dom. No, but I think that if this is dom now, I'm now dom. The UK, right? No, you're
- 26:36not here. No, but you're not. So it's if you're not born somewhere. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
- 26:40You have a substantial connection. You live in. You treat it as a person as your actual home,
- 26:46but it's not. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. So any, any internationals that are living here,
- 26:49are practically like non-domasiled. So, and are they being high attacks? Yes. Yeah. Oh, but
- 26:53they're so stupid because it's in the whole point that like because of Brexit, there's hardly any,
- 26:58like, diversity of people from overseas from a talent perspective, etc. And usually, that would
- 27:03just usually non-doms or wealthy non-doms will have. I'm like, I really think it's elsewhere.
- 27:11So you buying your house in New Zealand, you're going to be coming under this tax.
- 27:15Yeah. So what does it mean? It means that it because you're non-dom. Just say you're not
- 27:20a permanent resident. Like, stop being annoying. You're non-domasiled. You, but you will have
- 27:26assets overseas. So they'll be captured under the UK tax treatment, really. No.
- 27:31Yeah. So if I was to put mine in a truss. No. So if I buy a house, I'm going to
- 27:36absolutely sell it because we don't have family. Only if we're living here. So what if I
- 27:40bought it and then I held on to it for 10 years. Yeah. And then you move home. Yeah.
- 27:43And then you change to being. So I have to invest for the long term and everything.
- 27:47You become a dom in New Zealand. Okay. Yeah. Okay. Because we're domasiled in New Zealand.
- 27:51And you're receiving all that. Yeah. That's a bit short. Yeah. So you just have to be a bit strategic.
- 27:55So yes. And what are the tax not cuts? There's another one. There's another one.
- 27:59Good. Possibly going to be a raise on capital gains tax here as well.
- 28:03You made it look like this is an exciting thing. So this is a really shit thing. No. So this is
- 28:08the chancellor of the ex-chiccer. So the chancellor of the, oh, let me get to here. So the
- 28:14chancellor of the ex-chiccer. So this is the person that manages the finances of the nation.
- 28:18So of the country. So she is a female Rachel Reeves. Shit. Yeah. The first female
- 28:24to ever manage the UK finances. Can we get her on the podcast? And what are we 2024?
- 28:30Puck that's cool. So that like women have not been being trusted with managing money,
- 28:36little on managing in countries money until 2024 and Rachel Reeves.
- 28:40Rachel Reeves she sounds cool. But hold on to it's Rachel Reeves. But now she's introducing
- 28:45an increase in capital gains tax. So I'm kind of like Rachel. Oh, Han. Come on.
- 28:49Which by the way, apparently Han's not cool here. No. Apparently we need to get that rid of our
- 28:53podcast. Okay. I know, but I kind of sat for ceaselessly like Han. You know, not Han. Like
- 28:57I don't really like Han. Yeah. Han's kind of funny, but maybe I just need to get rid of it.
- 29:01So sorry. So Rachel is basically. It's potentially going to increase the tax on capital gains.
- 29:07But what is kept for what? Property. Property. Yep. Stocks. Property. So anything. Yeah.
- 29:12So does it mean if you get an increase in your investment, any kind of investment,
- 29:15you can you pay more tax. I mean, it's not. It's not yet. Does that mean that if what if we were
- 29:20here since tax? So the UK is going to be a great place. Hold on. So let's just say. So say I was
- 29:26investing in the US stock market, but I was based here as a non-donor. Don't ask me that. Okay.
- 29:31No, but I'm just going to say that I wonder if it's investing in the UK stock market. If you're buying
- 29:34property in the UK, if you're buying property in the UK and you sell it, you just pay capital gains
- 29:39and that's going to increase. New Zealand's like one of the only countries you don't pay capital gains.
- 29:43And capital gains just for anyone that doesn't know is if you sell it and you've made a profit,
- 29:47you don't have to pay tax on the profit. Yeah. Yeah. It's the change in the value. So that's probably
- 29:52why New Zealand properties like so booming. Yeah. And everyone wants their property there. But who's
- 29:57going to be the politician that's going to bring it in? Oh, surely they get kicked out. Well,
- 30:01they wouldn't get the votes. They wouldn't. Yeah. Oh my god. It's such a hard thing. It's kind of
- 30:06like you're stuck in a rock in a hard place. And lastly, Google and Meta have been doing secret
- 30:13deals. I saw this in your notes. I didn't read it all. I saw a secret deal and I thought, what's
- 30:18Google and Meta are like rivals. They're like two of the biggest internet social media companies.
- 30:24I feel like the other day we were talking about how people have started like the searches for
- 30:29tech talk have overtaken searches in Google and how the term Google and 10 years might be
- 30:34didn't people will say tech talk it. So wouldn't you say TikTok would be up there as a rival?
- 30:39Yes. Because they're private. These are us. Oh, TikTok's private and it's Chinese. But yes,
- 30:43when I went to Sudan, I was like beast beaches in Sudan and I searched on TikTok. That
- 30:48is restaurants. Shops me. Yeah. I just go go. I'd be like, oh, there's probably people that aren't
- 30:54like me that are going. No, I'm like generic trip advisor kind of. I just don't know why I'm
- 30:59like such a later doctor with that kind of thing. Like I was like the last person to get Facebook
- 31:04out of all my friends. It's so weird. But so because like, you know, a year ago, if we'd
- 31:08said get on TikTok, it could have been like, oh, there's now you're obsessed. Now I'm like,
- 31:14would you and your spare time when you're like trying to mindlessly scroll? Yeah. It would be
- 31:19TikTok Instagram, right? Yeah. Yeah. But I also have get a lot of news from TikTok. It's the fastest
- 31:25place to find news. I mean, some of it's fake news. Emily, what are you? Instagram or TikTok?
- 31:30Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. YouTube girl. Yeah. Yeah. I love that. I could have got someone
- 31:33each in the team covering. Google and meter. So I'm not sure if you remember like years ago,
- 31:42there was, was Mark Zuckerberg went in front of Congress and he was like, just to take a bit more
- 31:48ownership around how toxic social media is for children. And so there's a band that they can't
- 31:54advertise or market to children under the age of 18. But what has been leaked or found out is that
- 32:03Meta had a secret project with Google to advertise Instagram on YouTube to 13 to 17 year old. Yeah.
- 32:14So it was quite so what's going around? So 13 and 17 year olds would go onto YouTube and watch
- 32:19YouTube's and that's the advertisements for Instagram that for Instagram or for products on Instagram.
- 32:26Instagram. So why would Google? So it was a way to get around. Oh, sorry, because YouTube is not
- 32:31owned by Google that. Yeah. YouTube's owned by Google. So why would they want to help Instagram? Why
- 32:36would you make sure and Google want to help each others? And the whole point that they're like,
- 32:39yeah, this is why it's so weird because it's like hang on, your rivals and you're being like
- 32:45fierce competitors. But obviously, Meta can see that younger age groups heading to TikTok. So
- 32:51they're like, desperately trying to get that younger age group. But they're not legally allowed to
- 32:57target them on their own platform. So they're like, let's use another platform. So it's pretty dodgy.
- 33:02Also, how would they have even established a relationship good enough to even have that conversation?
- 33:07Yeah. Do you know what it reminds you of? You know, love actually when like the American and UK
- 33:13president have that like little moment over that girl. Yeah. That's kind of what the sounds like.
- 33:19It's always like they're like, we hate each other. But like, let's figure it out. You know,
- 33:23even though Hugh Grant was like, thank you, Billy Bob. But you know what I mean? I'm like, I can't
- 33:28even imagine like two very powerful people in such an enormous companies that are in such rivalry.
- 33:34It's money. Meta going to Google will pay you billions of dollars.
- 33:38But wouldn't they just be like, okay, let's leak that to the press. And then they'll go get
- 33:43it on the left over millions of dollars. And I don't know. What's that phrase? Keep your friends
- 33:48close, but enemies closer. I think it's kind of like this. But anyway, it's pretty bad.
- 33:52That's terrible. Yeah. So they have no shame, do they? Yeah. And it was all disguised. It was called
- 33:59like a known and like project. You know, it wasn't like project to target 13 to 17 year-old.
- 34:07Yeah. It was very smoke and mirrors. So I just feel like as a parent in the current environment,
- 34:12it would be like just minefield everywhere. Like how do we protect our children from like
- 34:20subliminal messaging and like, oh, there's just so much that you can't control. And then when
- 34:25you have some other biggest companies in the world being that deceitful, it's just like,
- 34:29shit. But I mean, even if they find fine. I guess they can both pay the fines, right? They're
- 34:34kind of like whatever, find us. I mean, Meta makes 40 billion dollars a year. So find us 40 billion.
- 34:43And it's like, it's like such big dick energy. Yeah. Don't tell us what to do because
- 34:51we'll just pair away out of it. Find us. We'll keep doing it. That's what I mean. It's
- 34:55like us on the rest of us. I didn't mean to make it sexual. Yeah. You did kind of like,
- 34:58I mean, over and show your ass. It looks like it's trying to fart or something. Yeah.
- 35:02That is my news. What a great episode. God, that was interesting. How long? That was quite a
- 35:08long one. Let's do a poll actually on Spotify and see, can you let us know if you would prefer us to
- 35:13keep the curve weekly shorter? Because we used to do the curve weekly was like me. I would.
- 35:20No, but like in terms of the amount of like the time we speak for, we used to keep it to like 20
- 35:25minutes, 30 minutes. This is quite a bit longer. So can you just if we put a poll, can you just put
- 35:29your feedback? Like, is it a case of you would rather it just be the length, like for example,
- 35:35there's a lot of news this week. There's not going on. Is it fine for it to be a bit longer?
- 35:39Should we just keep it shorter? So vote punchier. Yeah. Vote like punchier or don't mind. We'll put
- 35:45that as like a poll. Do we have any other fun announcements? We've got the world's biggest
- 35:50investing club and event, like sort of an initiation welcome this week actually for our founding
- 35:57members. I know this is a bit shit because there'll be a lot of people listening who are not
- 36:00founding members and you'll be like, what? So if you want to know and be like kind of the next
- 36:06to find out and access the platform, we'll put a link in the podcast show notes that you can
- 36:10just join the community and you'll differently here when the next like chance to join us. But
- 36:14for anyone who is a founding member, just keep an eye on your email because we're doing, yeah,
- 36:18there's like a little kind of like, it's like a welcome to the club on this Wednesday, so actually
- 36:24like tomorrow. Hopefully you've got the email already. Anyway, bye. Thank you so much for listening
- 36:32to the Curve Weekly. Make sure you hit the subscribe button to stay up to date with all the
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- 36:56Bye. See you next Tuesday. Wow. See you next Tuesday. I mean, Monday.
- 37:04Okay, quickly, the Curve was created to empower and educate you about investing, but we are not
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- 37:20personalized investing advice for your individual needs and should not be relied upon to make
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