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Shapiroworld by Strictly Business · Strictly Business

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You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
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It's Monday, so it's time for Shapiro World with David Shapiro from Sasfin
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Securities, who has just arrived back,
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not in South Africa, not in Johannesburg, but in New York.
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It was almost as though when we were chatting off air that David had gone from
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one country to another by moving from Boston
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to New York.
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And you explained to me, David, that Boston is more political.
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New York is just get on with it and make some money sort of place.
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Yeah.
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I think ever since the Dutch came here, I don't know the dates,
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but I imagine somewhere in the 1600s, you know, it was a trading center.
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It was never a political center.
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I don't think when the Dutch came here, whether it was the Dutch East Indies,
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I don't know which particular company set up a trading station here on Manhattan,
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whatever it was.
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I think the whole reason for being was to make money, to trade.
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And I think it's never lost it.
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Even throughout the wars, the revolution from the Civil War, whatever it is,
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it's always been thought of a money center.
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And that's what you feel here.
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You just feel a pulse of business,
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people going about their daily tasks up and down.
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I don't, if there are any kind of protests, I think they're isolated to
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certain areas.
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And even in that sense, the funniest thing is that people just walk past, say, okay,
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and just carry on.
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They don't get involved politically.
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You know, they let you do what you want to do.
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And so it goes.
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It's a completely different climate to what you see in Boston, where that's where
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the revolution started,
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you know, in the late 1700s, 1775.
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I don't know the exact.
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dates that the first shots were fired.
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But, you know, it took on.
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I still think the center of debate in the country,
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there's so many universities and there's so many centers of learning.
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And you get, you know, and just to summarize it, and
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I went to a number of dinners mainly because it was a Jewish holiday so you met
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up with a lot of people and And...
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They hate the left and they hate the right, you know, and they're in the
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middle.
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It depends whether you center left or whether you center right, but a lot of
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debate goes on.
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And I don't think there's any kind of conclusion.
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I think they fear the left more than the right, you know,
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fear the left in some of their radicalization of policies.
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And you see that in New York at the moment where there's Mamdani.
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Yes, I've heard a little of him.
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But just to summarize, he's a far, far left sort of radical young man in his 30s.
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And he's a lefty.
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He's a serious lefty.
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Yes, a lefty in the sense of socialism.
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He wants to bring in free grocery stores, free transport and things like that.
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Well, at the end of the day, there's nothing that's free.
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Yeah, that's going to work.
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Someone's going, no, nothing's free.
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The taxpayers will pay for it.
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And being New York,
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I think already your taxes here are slightly higher than any other city.
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What you'll do is you'll drive out business.
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So, Como is standing against him as the independent.
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Andrew Comer, not a very popular man.
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But isn't he tinged with scandal?
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Not tinged, actually.
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He's plastered with the stuff, yeah.
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Yes, yes, mainly after COVID.
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And, you know, he was the former governor.
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So there's a lot of issues around him.
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But, you know, you might find that the business-like people here just go for him.
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Donnie is still ahead.
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And, you know, he's at the lower end.
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People compare him to a young, refreshing Kennedy.
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You know, he's probably but, you know, Lindsay, it comes back to it.
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When I watch Spectrum News here, which is the local news, and I enjoy it because it
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gives you up to date, you know.
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They tell you what the weather is going to be to the minute.
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And, you know, that's America.
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They're absolutely obsessed with the weather.
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But when you listen to the conversations, so much of it is around just mundane
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stuff,
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you know.
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Whether the bus from Bronx takes too long to get to or, you know,
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too long to get to town and that they must now have a lane because your commute is 30
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minutes, you know,
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things like that are more important than the politics.
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So there's so many.
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So many business-like issues, you know, the clean parks,
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whether the trains are running on time and traffic and stuff like that, you know,
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so collecting rubbish and so on.
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So I think when it comes to running a city of this size, it's much more you need an
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administrator.
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When the United Nations comes to town, you want to make sure that the police are
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there and that there's security,
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you know, and that the person who's putting in the cops knows exactly what
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he's doing, you know,
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that it doesn't disrupt the rest of the traffic.
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So the issues are so, you think they're mundane.
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You know, it's not politics.
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Every now and again, they'll mention Trump.
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But I mean, that's what's going to confront him.
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And I keep thinking of South Africa in the early days of the 90s when the ANC came
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in.
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They were great orators in terms of pushing, you know,
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pushing socialist.
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views and socialist policies and that.
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At the end of the day, look where we are now 30 years later.
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It just reminds me of the exact same thing.
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Very noble in their causes, but at the end, the result hasn't exactly been
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profitable.
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So you need an administrator.
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This is a city that needs a person who's going to run the city.
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Bloomberg was great at it.
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He was great.
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He was a Republican who became a Democrat.
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You know, he wanted to stand for president and then I think stood on the Democratic
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ticket.
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But, I mean, it was a failure as a presidential candidate.
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But he was a very good governor, a very good mayor of New York.
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So that's what it comes down to.
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All right.
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So that's a good summary of your two cities,
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your two adopted cities and the different way that they go about.
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their business and the different way I suppose you go about your business as well
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and just tell us now which one do you prefer to be in do you feel
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more more at home where you are right now in Manhattan oh yeah I you know simply
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that that that
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it's um for if I was building bringing up a family like my daughter then there's no
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doubt
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that Boston is a better city you know it's not this is not a city where you bring up
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young people you know where you bring up kids
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If you've got three kids or four kids or something, it's very hard to get around
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here.
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And it's, you know,
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you're in these massive buildings and you're confined to parks and whereas the
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schools in
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Boston are more open.
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But if you're at my age, where you rely on public transport, you know, you're not
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going to,
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I'm not going to get a motor car or if I just go downstairs and I need to go to a
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chemist.
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down the road or something, then it's very easy.
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I love New York and I love the pulse of it because there's just so much to do on a
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day-to-day basis.
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You know, I enjoy just walking around here or sitting in Central Park or going to
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Lincoln Center and, you know,
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the entertainment is all around you.
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I can't, so difficult to explain.
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I just watch in awe as people go to the ballet and they go to the opera and they
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go to the symphony concerts and they go down to
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Broadway and you watch.
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You watch all the people coming back in the evenings, you know, the people who
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were in the orchestra in their bow ties,
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getting off the train and grabbing a sandwich.
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It's probably easier to go to the opera than it is to watch a premiership game on
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telly, isn't it, David?
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Yes, yes.
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That's the beauty, and especially Champions League, which is much, you know,
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which is 3 o'clock in the afternoon.
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That's the best thing.
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The only thing is I couldn't get the rugby.
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You know, just not that I… Not that it was a great miss,
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but you can watch everything here on either various channels that
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broadcast all the games.
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So, yeah, that's the best thing.
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Okay, very good.
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Now, please explain the markets because I turned on a screen and I thought, no, this
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is wrong.
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I saw that Bitcoin was at a record high.
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The gold price was nearly 4,000.
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And I also noticed that the euro dollar...
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So a stronger dollar.
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So it's not the dollar that's gone to hell because it's below 117 euro dollar that
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is.
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That's what I always look at, not the dollar index.
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So why?
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Why is it doing it?
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Is it fear of missing out?
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Is it suddenly we've got to have this because everyone else has got it?
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Totally.
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Because you look at a graph of the gold price, that's going to fall in a heap one
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day.
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You've got no doubt about it.
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You know, that is FOMO.
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I can't explain.
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You know, just...
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to go back a little, there's a massive deal today,
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this AMD and OpenAI, $100 billion worth of
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chips i think over four years it's like a trade exchange or something isn't it yeah
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yes yes
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10 percent of amd for for chips or the other way around rather yeah so it's i
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mean it's a huge
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deal i think amd's up uh
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26 as i look on the screen now it's still way down in terms of its size relative to
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the
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other semiconductor companies you know it's got a market cap of 267 billion
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versus the comm which is
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1.5 trillion and uh nvidia which is 4.5 trillion but still it's these kind of
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deals that are pushing the
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market uh market up now why why you know um but
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artificial intelligence is an industry it's working these are kind of deals that
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are going to increase productivity
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yes you can read bezos i mean jeff bezos's view his interview as well as david
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solomon's interview
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that they had We know there's going to be casualties is the best way that I can put
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it.
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As happens with any industry, the new industry.
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You remember Beta versus VHS and all the gaming companies and all the computer
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companies in the early days
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where we had Lotus 1, 2, 3, which was taken over by Microsoft's Excel and so on.
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It happens in the industry.
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We're going to see that in AI.
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But with gold and with Bitcoin, you can't.
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How do you judge it?
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It's Omo and everybody believes, you know, there's pressure.
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If you're running a fund now, Lindsay, there's pressure.
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We've got to have gold.
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You know, it keeps going up.
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So you start off with 5% and then you increase it to 10%.
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But at the end of the day, and you know it, it's gold.
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It's a piece of metal that's not going to produce anything for you.
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And this can go on.
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This can go on simply because of the momentum behind it, almost like Bitcoin.
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You know that you've got to keep taking it.
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You've got to keep having it.
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But it's not going to do anything for you.
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Eventually, you're going to find some other sucker to sell it to at a higher
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price.
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And when things slow down, then it becomes very difficult.
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So while we look at AI in a different saying, yes, we know there's going to be a
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bubble, but there will be winners out of this bubble.
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There will be winners.
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There will be companies that do well.
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There will be others that fall, by the way.
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I can't get tempted.
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to go and buy some gold now or platinum.
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You can't buy gold at $39.50.
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Of course you can't, for goodness sake.
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I'm not knocking it, and I don't want to face a criticism for all the zealots,
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for all those people who have followed it and have done incredibly well out of gold.
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But it's something that comes around in a cycle.
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And when the cycle goes, it takes a long time to get back to that cycle.
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We know.
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I know.
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You and I know.
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When I say we, you and I know.
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that you're psychologically scarred by gold.
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You can't deny it.
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Gold here.
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Your first deal on the JSC Securities Exchange, it wasn't called that then,
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it was called the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, and it was in a building that is
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now two buildings away from where they are now,
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I think, could be even three, and you messed up a deal.
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Your first ever deal on the floor as a junior stockbroker.
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Your dad gave you something and you got it completely wrong, and it was gold.
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That's why you can't touch it.
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I gave him an order and I added an extra nought to it.
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Well, same thing.
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Shame your dad must have been.
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You know, when I think about those, Lindsay, it's quite interesting.
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I remember the order.
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It was 40 cents for Lorraine shares.
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I mean, Lorraine's come and gone and remembers that.
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But I mean, this was such a simple order in those days.
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You know, it was no more than 400 rand.
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1,000 shares for 40 cents, and I did 10,000 shares, and I had to reverse 9,000.
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And, yeah, that was so long ago.
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But that's how simple things were, and that's what the rent, I mean, that was
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considered a deal, you know,
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for 400 grand.
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It's crazy.
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Amazing.
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David, so everything's fine.
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I've got to send you a podcast link.
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which I want you to listen to.
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It's from a chap that we know.
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I won't mention his name now until I've sent it to you.
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But you're still happy with the way things are going along.
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There's no warning signs.
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There's no, oh, God, again, I've got 10% of this thing.
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I've got to get it down to 7.5% or something.
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Nothing like that.
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You know, I did hesitate a few weeks ago.
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Oh, yeah.
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But we seem to have overcome that.
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And, you know, the markets continue.
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Here we go.
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I think it's deal-driven,
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and I think I got a lot of comfort out of reading what Jeff Bezos said in his
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interview.
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Not that I had differing views.
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And also what David Solomon and David Solomon said, yes, the same thing.
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You know, we know there are going to be casualties.
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We know that everybody can't be winner out of what's happening.
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But I think underlying it is what is happening is the amount of money that are
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going into these deals,
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as we've seen with the AMD OpenAR deal today.
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You know,
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it's it's these are huge deals that are taking place and I think provide the
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driving force.
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I think the other story is that rates have to come down.
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And we are going to see rates coming down in the US, which is going to be another,
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you know,
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give the market another boost.
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But I think outside of that, you know, there's no sense of major issues here.
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You know, I walk around the US, it's still such an incredibly strong economy.
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You know, it's very hard to topple it.
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And I think.
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Out of all the economies, it's still the one economy that I'd rather be invested in
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than anywhere else,
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simply because of the depth or breadth of industries here.
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And the fact that they're leading this, that they continue to lead in AI.
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The one thing that you might have missed, Lindsay, is if you look in the European
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markets,
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there's been big gains there in ASML.
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You know, ASML, which started off the year, you know ASML from Eindhoven.
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Yes, of course, it's in Eindhoven, yeah, exactly.
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Yeah, and it's up now 32% year-to-date, having been...
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It was in trouble, wasn't it?
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Yes, yes, and also, I think, pointing in the right direction,
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we've seen some European companies also making their mark and picking up slowly.
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AstraZeneca has been another one, which is up 22% this year.
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So there have been a lot of big moves there as well.
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Tell me something, David.
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I'm starting to see a recovery in luxury as well.
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You know, we're still down but starting to turn.
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Oh, that's very interesting.
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I suppose the amount of wealth that is being created in certain areas, David,
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I can't imagine what some of these chaps are when it comes to the Fortune 500 next
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year or something.
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I mean, a lot of it is obviously not declared.
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But some people...
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are making obscene amounts of money.
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And it goes down.
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There are people that just sold stock in, what was the company they sold?
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The staff were allowed to sell $6.6 billion worth of stock.
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And I can't remember the company.
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It was one of the ones that we talk about all the time.
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But anyway, that money is going to people that are not the billionaires.
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They're people that have just become millionaires because of this stock sale.
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And how that filters through to the economy.
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I mean, you know, this person says, right, I'm going to get on an airplane.
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I'm going to go to Florida for a holiday.
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I'm going to go and buy something nice on Fifth Avenue or whatever.
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It's amazing.
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You know, you've touched an incredibly important point because there's four
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savings here.
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People have got their 401Ks or 410Ks.
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I can't remember what they're called.
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401Ks are here.
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And in Australia, they've got… their superannuation funds and everything.
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And, you know, anybody who's invested that, their 401k,
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they've got serious wealth.
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You know, so through this market, through these gains that you've seen in AI shares
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and the S&P and so on,
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they've become, I don't want to say wealthy, but they're certainly in a strong
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position.
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And you do get the wealth effect.
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You know, when you look at that going up, you feel better about who you are.
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You don't feel the stress.
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So you do go out and spend.
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And it affects a huge number of people.
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You're dead right.
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I don't think you can imagine.
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I know you live in Europe and there is wealth there.
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There's wealth that has been built up over hundreds and hundreds of years.
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But coming from South Africa, we think we're rich or people think they're rich.
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They're nothing.
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Nothing.
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Nothing compared to where we are.
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What was that stat in South Africa?
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There was only $3,200 millionaires living in South Africa.
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Do you remember that?
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Do you remember that a couple of weeks ago, more than a couple of weeks ago?
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I don't see that, no.
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Okay.
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I'll dig it out.
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But it's a poor country compared to, as you say.
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No, no.
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I know we look at the Jan Ruperts and people like that.
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I mean, you know, yes, they were worth a few billion dollars, but I don't even
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think they make it to the top 20,
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30, 40, 50, you know, on a global standard.
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I don't know.
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I might be completely out of my depth.
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But I mean, in rands, billions of rands means nothing.
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You know, it's billions of dollars.
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Taylor Swift is worth $2 billion or something like that.
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Have you got her on your Spotify list, her new album, The Life of a Showgirl? Have
20:01
you listened to it?
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Yeah.
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And?
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She's okay.
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You know, I listen to her on one of the radio stations here.
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It's a pop station, a New York one.
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And she's a very humble person, very clever, smart.
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I'm not mad about her music.
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I'm not mad.
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I'm not a Swifty.
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She's good and she's got a very strong following.
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I mean, coming from where I came from, the 60s and 70s and that.
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But she's a very she's a down-to-earth, solid, good person.
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She's not talking about genitals or writing about someone else's genitals, as
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you hear with so many of you.
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Other artists, you know, which just, okay, thank you for that.
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But she's a good person and she's done very, very well.
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And she's a good example.
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I think she's a very good role model, sure.
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Yes, I'm just looking at you there.
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I got it completely wrong.
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I was like you, I got the nought wrong.
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There are $41,000 millionaires in South Africa.
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Now, you think, okay, you could bump into one.
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You walk around Santa and there's probably a couple of them whizzing around there.
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In France, which has a sort of the same sort of population, a little bit more than
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South Africa,
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$2.9 million millionaires.
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Yes,
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yes.
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Versus 41,000.
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I saw it in Boston when I was running around the suburbs.
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In South Africa, we tend to build walls around ourselves, but you just see these
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massive estates,
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these huge houses, and when you price them, yes, $10,
21:48
$15 million.
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Now, work that out in Rand.
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I know we've got some very good estates down in Cape Town, overlooking the views,
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overlooking the harbor, but those are bought by foreigners.
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They're not built.
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bought by South Africans.
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And if they are South Africans, yeah, it's very few.
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But it's incomparable, I think, the wealth here that surrounds you.
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You know where I see it, Lindsay, when I go into Nordstrom and just walk around
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some of the
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Saks Fifth Avenue or you go to Bloomingdale's and that or some of the
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boutiques,
22:30
especially on Madison Avenue or Fifth Avenue and you go into, you know the
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luxury shops and I'm not talking about
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LVMH or any of the others, Tiffany's or Hermes or any of those,
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just walking into the department stores and you go up to the shoe store
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and you look at the shoes and you look at the cost of shoes and you look at the
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dresses that go there or the
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outfits.
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I mean, we can't afford it.
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I go to Uniqlo, which is Uniqlo or H&M or something like that,
23:04
or Gap.
23:06
you know we get good bargains I thought you used to be a Cole Haan man for your
23:11
shoes yes I do
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I am a Cole Haan yes I thought so what do you pay for a pair of Cole Haan shoes well
23:19
if
23:19
you go at 200 to 300 dollars but you've got to wait for the sales and the sales
23:26
will come in at
23:28
you know 150 dollars or 100 dollars but
23:31
you've got to be very smart you've got to be You've got to know how to shop here.
23:36
I'm going today to get something at a place called All Birds, which we don't
23:41
have in South Africa.
23:43
What does it sell?
23:45
Obviously not birds.
23:47
No, it's mainly casual shoes and that.
23:50
But it's huge.
23:52
I mean, where did I go into?
23:56
Yeah, I was in Nordstrom.
23:58
And I was down in the shoe department with Linda.
24:01
You know, Linda looks and that, I mean, she comes from the Oval, so she's not,
24:05
she's a communist daughter.
24:07
So thank goodness, her aspirations are very low.
24:08
She sets the bar very low.
24:13
So I just walked, but what I couldn't believe is the number of people, you know,
24:20
just trying on shoes.
24:22
And I mean, just remarkable, whatever.
24:25
Anyway.
24:25
Okay, well, good luck with your shopping this afternoon, David.
24:28
Good to have you back on.
24:29
We may speak again on Thursday with Viv.
24:32
Yeah, I'm around.
24:33
More technical.
24:34
I wanted to ask you one question on markets, not shoes, this time.
24:39
When you see all this M&A activity, merger and acquisition activity and corporate
24:45
activity, people buying 10%
24:47
of this in exchange for this chip deal, etc.
24:49
Does that say to you that that's good for the market?
24:51
Because people are finding creative ways of unlocking their wealth or expanding
24:57
their wealth.
24:59
Or is that a sign that the market is topping?
25:00
Because people can't grow organically.
25:03
They have to do it.
25:05
by getting together with somebody else.
25:06
What is your assessment of what's been going on?
25:08
Because there have been some deals.
25:11
M&A is a very positive development.
25:14
It means businesses are thinking, and they're thinking of what lies ahead.
25:18
You know, it's come back to Remgrove in South Africa.
25:22
Lots of money, no deals.
25:24
You know, can't do anything.
25:25
Yeah.
25:26
Or a lot of other South African businesses.
25:27
So what do they do?
25:28
They buy back their shares.
25:30
In this case, they are creating.
25:31
partnerships for the future development.
25:34
They want to be ahead of everybody else.
25:36
Not everybody's going to win.
25:38
And I keep saying that.
25:39
We know that.
25:41
We don't need journalists to write and warn us about it.
25:44
It's going to happen that things do slow down and some casualties fall by the way.
25:51
But the fact that there's this ongoing creativity, I think, is a very positive
25:56
sign.
25:58
They're building out the infrastructure.
25:59
And that's a differentiation.
26:02
that I find in the market, you know, that's what attracts me more than saying,
26:05
oh,
26:05
I've got to buy gold because everybody's buying gold and the price is going up.
26:09
You know, it's got no, I can't look at a balance sheet of gold or I can't, you
26:16
know, you can't forecast anything.
26:18
And also, you've got to talk to the people who are leading this initiative and see
26:24
what they
26:25
see.
26:25
You know, we don't know anything, Lindsay.
26:27
I mean, these brains, you know, the kids.
26:30
in AI now, just so far advanced to us,
26:34
to the way that we think and to what they see ahead and where they see it helping
26:39
companies.
26:41
So I'm very enthralled by what's happening in markets.
26:46
I just see it in the same way as the internet, the railways, you know, all
26:52
these developments that have taken place,
26:54
the early computers that we had.
26:56
It's just another new area.
26:58
I don't want to knock it.
26:59
I just think it's a...
27:01
So now we've got to look for the next deal.
27:02
Oracle went shooting up, Intel went shooting up, and now we've got AMD doing
27:07
so well.
27:08
You've got to look for the next one now.
27:10
Or who is going to benefit from the spinoff,
27:12
as ASML has benefited as a spinoff company that was downtrodden.
27:18
Interesting.
27:19
One for you to ponder, David.
27:22
Football?
27:24
I say that because if you listen to ASML, they told you what was going to happen.
27:29
Yes.
27:31
And the market just reacted in a completely different way.
27:37
And that's where you've got to differentiate yourself.
27:40
You've got to do your own research.
27:41
You've got to look at the businesses themselves and say, hold on a sec, this
27:46
looks cheap.
27:48
This looks attractive.
27:50
And that's why it's… There's so much speculation on the market.
27:55
There's just so much noise, and you've got to look through that.
28:02
Well, you look through it.
28:03
You're the one that looks through it for us, David.
28:06
I look at football a little bit more than I should do, and interesting weekend ahead
28:12
of the international break.
28:14
City, Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea, Spurs, all winning,
28:19
and that's how it should be, I think.
28:20
That's how it should be.
28:22
and Nottingham Forest, even Newcastle won,
28:24
Nottingham Forest and a few others losing.
28:29
I'm sad that Crystal Palace lost to Everton.
28:31
How they did, I don't know, but they threw it away completely.
28:34
But it is an interesting time coming up, and I think City of the Dark Horses,
28:41
Arsenal, are the favourites,
28:43
I would say.
28:45
Yeah, I worry about...
28:47
No, they're playing well, and they're playing...
28:49
They're playing fantastically well.
28:51
It's a different attitude, yeah.
28:53
The worry is that Odegaard is injured.
28:55
And, you know, you start to get these injuries building up.
28:56
You know, Rodri also went off with a hamstring.
29:00
And he's an influential man, you know.
29:02
And to lose them so early in the season and out for a couple of… That's what
29:07
worries me.
29:09
You know, why are we getting so many injuries, you know, so early in the
29:13
season?
29:13
And it's just the strain of the number of gains of the seasons and that.
29:18
I find that a big concern.
29:21
But I've enjoyed the football.
29:22
I loved, you know, I watched the Chelsea match.
29:26
I watched the Arsenal match.
29:27
I watched all of them.
29:29
And they're tight.
29:31
They're very, very tight games that can go anywhere.
29:34
You know, even West Ham towards the end started to look threatening against
29:39
Arsenal.
29:41
They held off.
29:43
But I mean, I'm enjoying the season.
29:44
Yeah, me too, suddenly.
29:46
Okay, David, thank you very much.
29:48
Welcome back to New York.
29:49
And we'll speak again very soon.
29:51
David Shapiro is from Assessment Securities in Johannesburg.
29:56
And that was Shapiro World.
29:57
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30:04
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