Latest / International Flavor: Where the Truth Tastes Better / Sanctions, Tariffs, and the Global Backlash: Why the West Keeps Losing

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Sanctions, Tariffs, and the Global Backlash: Why the West Keeps Losing · International Flavor: Where the Truth Tastes Better

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We interrupt this incredibly awesome music to bring
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you some incredibly awesome political talk on damn
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radio Damn straight that is what we are
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doing here We are bringing you some political
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commentary My name is samuel trap glad to
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have you Uh, if you wish to call
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the lake ozark real estate of the art
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studio You may do so at five seven
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three seven four six eight zero 2-0
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Or you can send me an email.
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I might even pay attention to it live
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at dem radio dot com and my own
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email is samuel t At international flavor.com.
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You can try that one, too and I
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wanted to start today by talking a little
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bit about Sanctions how they work why they
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work where they work if they work and
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I would argue that they do not because
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here we are on I like the word.
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I don't know why I don't understand why
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they call it a if this is a
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package of sanctions the eu is now sending
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out the 19th packet of sanctions against russia
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And they keep on getting you know worse
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and worse this is how we're going to
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What are we going to do?
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We're gonna bring russia to their knees if
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you are the eu lots of news today,
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we'll get into some of that as well
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and anything you uh Bring up to me.
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I would be happy to chat if Uh,
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you would like to not a problem over
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here Uh, so let's get started on this
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article I discovered a few days ago About
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and we just finished the 18th packet of
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sanctions, which then we had the trump.
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Uh, Punitive tariffs against india and china, which
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we've already talked about uh somewhat at length
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and there's uh, you know I thought that
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with these 19 Packets of sanctions that we
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could talk about And see if they're actually
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working or if they're harming us so france
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and germany are pushing for deeper sanctions against
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Russia, they think this is what will uh,
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stop stop the rest of the world, uh,
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stop china stop india stop russia from doing
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well And I was watching something a little
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bit earlier and I I gotta tell you
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this just isn't working And there are small
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indications of how it works and if it
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was working russia's economy would be tanking But
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it isn't Uh what everybody is saying is
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that it is uh, you know heating up
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in fact There's news from the front i'm
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not sure i'm going to go into any
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any war news today i'm not all that
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jazzed up about it uh, but I do
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want to So we're going to float around
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a little bit today most likely so I
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wanted to share with you some of this
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article on this sanctions because the european union
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Is thinking this is the way they want
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to go.
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They want to go after Anyone who is
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using?
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Russia's domestic alternative to the swift system so
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back a number of years ago 2014 I
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think well, we might get to the to
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the number.
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I have a chart i'll go look into
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later on in the show uh, russia put
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up their own Change system and right after
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that china did the same and so What
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I speak about here fairly often is alternatives
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that people are trying to generate for A
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payment structure because the rest of the world
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is tired of us Well tired of them
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our deep state tired of our people Forcing
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them to engage in sanctions that they may
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not want to the latest our china and
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india that I'm, not sure this is going
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to go the way the old trumpster wants.
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There was a an interesting article.
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I read also on the chip Which I
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might share with you a little bit the
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chip wars that have been going on between
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China and the u.s. And there's like
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a four-day negotiation I think it's still
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going on.
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Uh right now.
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I may talk to you a little bit
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about that and Uh where we go with
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these chip things but but We seem to
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be well america seems to be backing off
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on some of these trump seems to be
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backing off and Maybe it's because the the
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sanctions really don't work.
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So I want to talk a little bit
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about that I want to talk about the
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pressure on the eu To come up with
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a way And the pressure is allegedly coming
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from trump's office to force a euro clear
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it's a brussels Banking structure that is holding
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the 200 of the 300 billion in russian
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assets to get them to seize this money
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and whether that will work my Uh, quick
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answer is no and I will explain to
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you why Work to stop the war.
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I mean, you know, it might prolong it
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a little bit which isn't going to do
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anybody any good but russia's already A destroyed
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western Weaponry Far more than anybody ever thought
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would be possible they've taken Most of the
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other countries like there was a story last
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week about poland putting all of their their
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patriots moving them to the border because of
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this, uh, nonsensical Alleged attack without warheads into
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russia.
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There's been a lot of discussion about that
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and I read you.
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Uh, nibbins Nibbins, yeah, I can't I can't
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remember where that stress is on his name
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it's either nebensia or nebensia, and I can't
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remember but uh, either way, uh vasily Is
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his first name so let's just use that
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but he uh uh He said that they
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only have a range of 700 kilometers so
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they couldn't have made it to poland from
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where they were, you know, if russia was
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sending them and uh, he said there were
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uh, plenty of occasions in the past where
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Ukraine has made these sort of false flag
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things and sent their own Their own versions
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their own weaponry because they have some gerand
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drones too and on top of that the
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Uh, the fact that there are no warheads
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was it was a pretty big deal so
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I don't think that the fact that I
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don't think ukraine's gonna get a whole lot
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more Joy out of the patriot systems and
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stuff like that that the ukraine is on
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So i'm not sure that these sanctions are
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Doing to russia the damage that everybody Wishes
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they were doing and so and I want
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to go into that and tell you why
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so Remember russia's got its own payment system
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that it's put out in like 2014 or
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something china put one out A little bit
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off of that and the china one is
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growing much faster than the russia one And
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I talked about it a little bit with
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this shanghai cooperation organization being so visible last
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week When all of the countries that were
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there there were some 20 countries.
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They're well represented that were there last year
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and this year's bricks conferences had so many
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people and all of them are Seeking alternatives
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to western dominated Structures especially banking they want
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to have make their own sovereign decisions they
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want to do that and that means that
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my my thesis is that the push to
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Force by europe starting with europe But if
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trump tries to back it and and if
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trump takes the money so two two different
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steps one is seizure of other people's money
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Which is a huge deal all in itself
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And the other ones are these constant packages,
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you know if if sanctions were working We
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wouldn't need 19 packages from europe alone, would
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we?
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Uh, there was a story I read about
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lindsey graham cruising around trying to come up
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with another one and johnson saying He wasn't
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going to let it uh be added to
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a package, you know of a Legal bill
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a bill moving forward and he wasn't going
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to let lindsey graham attach this more sanctions
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uh to This bill he was going to
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keep him out so I think people might
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be getting the idea that sanctions don't really
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work or That even if they put them
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into place, they aren't going to give you
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the result that you want and so That's
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kind of the nature of where we're going
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today and this system is pretty alternative but
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france and germany are trying to Hit russia's
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trading partners now, so now they're banking they're
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not trying to hit the system for transfer
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of financial messages this is Instead of swift
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they want to attack those and they say
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this ensures That Russia won't be able to
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if you take if you attack these messages
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And then you attack all these secondary systems
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that are going through china and elsewhere then
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russia can't transfer money so Seems like every
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few months they change what they need to
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do in order to hit russia's financial system
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or its sales and production system or Target
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people who want to buy russian products or
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target individual russians That happen to have money
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and make everybody You know the attempt to
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do that is to get everybody to to
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hate the old vladimir vladimirovich But whatever has
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been happening.
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It's not been working.
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So In june of 2024 Brussels banned eu
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banks operating outside of russia from connecting to
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russia's spfs or carrying out um Well, I
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well, you know what?
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They were trying to stop people from uh,
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they wouldn't let them attach to swift's spfs
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But then there's two of them.
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Well, there's actually three but there's there's the
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spfs that that attaches to swift and transferring
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The system and they want to exclude From
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europe's financial networks anybody trading but as of
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early 2025 177 foreign entities across 24 countries
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Have been connected to spfs according to russian
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central bank and so Moscow is and and
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all these other countries The more you tell
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them no that you can't deal with these
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the more they Find ways to avoid swift
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And so they are attaching to russia's spfs
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and then they're attaching even more so to
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china's Cips chinese i'll get to the acronym
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in it But basically it's china's version of
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swift russia's is a messaging, you know your
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electronics messaging Which is part of the system
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as well and they're they're linking together and
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growing so I want to get to These
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systems that we have so swift was built
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uh was launched in 1977 Okay right now
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There are about uh as of 2025 11
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000 institutions and 200 countries are attached to
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swift And they do 42 million messages a
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day in electronics.
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Okay, or uh Transfer interests, you know here
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we have this and they have multi-currency
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and it is global.
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Okay then because and swift was Absolutely the
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big player.
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Okay and spfs the russian version is small
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but crucial and it's got 52 users in
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20 Foreign users I mean in 2022 to
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177 in 2025 And russia is the anchor
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that plugs into the cips the chinese version
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And the chinese version is experiencing explosive growth
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So russia started spfs first in 2014 and
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15 and then cips the chinese system started
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in 2015 and the so that one uh
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is now that the chinese version has 176
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direct and 1531 indirect So they're about 1700
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totals 100 countries 4900 institutions, so they're about
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half the size of swift And swift came
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around in 1977 So what does that get
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you?
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50 years ish and in 10 years This
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the chinese system is about half the size.
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Okay Okay, right now they're only doing about
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26 000 transactions a day But they're up
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to a hundred and seventy five trillion uh
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for 2024 in Equivalent dollars chinese dollars versus
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us, right?
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And they are expanding expanding quickly and now
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The Fact is that Since about 2019 2020
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the swift system has been basically the same,
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you know, it's not it's not expanding.
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It's not growing and they're not getting They're
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not expanding with the rest of the world
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financial markets while the growth is going to
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the cips system because they're pretty much staying
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the same especially since 2015 and This alternative
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is creating a pretty big deal for people
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in the rest of the world to Not
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have to Be forced to engage in sanctions
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and I admit, uh, you know my argument
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that this is uh That the sanctions and
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all the things against india and china are
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not going to work Arguably, you know could
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be wrong.
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I don't think i'm wrong at all I
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think that the stage was set at the
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Shanghai cooperation organization a week or two we
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had 10 days ago, I guess that when
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they were all together Xi jingping modi and
16:47
vladimir putin that they were all together And
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they all were pretty solid on it.
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I think that xi jingping and putin were
16:55
encouraging Modi to hold the line and the
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Statement since that time have been pretty solid
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that you know, you cannot tell us You
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know tell a sovereign nation what to do
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And more jai shankar out there more modi
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out there everybody Parroting the same Thing we're
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a sovereign nation and every other Nation backing
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them up and saying, you know, we're a
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sovereign nation.
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Are they gonna hurt india?
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Sure uh, but The oil per barrel travel.
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Well, we'll get to that in a second.
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Um on the amount of oil per barrel
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is uh So let's see here messages per
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day uh 53 million for Swift And
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cips started the annual volume and messages per
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day number of transactions uh 6.6 million
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in 2023 8.2 million 2024 the uh
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swift equivalent is at 53 okay And the
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cips overtime has gotten quite a bit bigger
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too from 2019 to 2025 They've grown, uh
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pretty large as well so I Struggle to
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think that this is actually working that cutting
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them off on the eu side that cutting
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these Transactions off is really going to be
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helpful You know, I don't I personally don't
18:53
think they are and uh I think that
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uh The dollars well the money the financial
19:04
transactions just back that up And so the
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eu targeting the russian swift Isn't going to
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go where we think it's going to go
19:15
and then uh You know, for example, here's
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uh, there was an interesting article about china
19:23
Warning the u.s. This one came out
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today warning the u.s. about bullying and
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economic coercion There's more commentary coming china condemns
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the u.s. Efforts to pressure g7 and
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nato to impose more tariffs or Increased tariffs
19:44
on beijing over purchases of russian oil and
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say that We will retaliate china saying we're
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going to retaliate if you do so trump's
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out there Calling for pressure on russia's trading
19:56
partners to stop buying oil Saying that that
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could help end the ukraine conflict but the
20:03
financial times reported that washington is asking the
20:07
finance ministers of g7 countries to Have 50
20:10
to 100 percent tariffs on chinese and indian
20:13
imports tied to russian oil he wants and
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remember trump said that he will act when
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the eu acts and he's Encouraging to do
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this and up them and then asked on
20:24
monday.
20:25
The chinese foreign ministry said Uh, it was
20:28
fully legitimate and lawful for beijing to maintain
20:32
normal economic uh Hey, jr normal economic trade
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and energy country, uh cooperation with all countries
20:46
including russia And that they intend to do
20:49
so and then he said that washington's request
20:53
was a typical move Typical move here.
20:58
We are with typical moves by the u
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.s. Once again a typical move of unilateralism
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Bullying and economic coercion But facts prove that
21:10
coercion and pressure win no hearts and minds
21:13
And still less do they solve anything?
21:17
He said he added that china's position on
21:19
the ukraine conflict remains objective and just And
21:25
he said the dialogue and negotiation is the
21:27
only viable solution He said that beijing opposes
21:32
firmly Being targeted with illicit unilateral sanctions and
21:37
long arm Jurisdiction, I found that pretty interesting
21:42
this long arm jurisdiction people are tired of
21:45
being Ruled from washington are told what to
21:48
do from washington and uh our country Has
21:53
made some dramatic mistakes if you listen last
21:56
night to me going through the king of
21:59
uh of bosnia and uh the kosovo and
22:04
the ukraine The this is all very much
22:07
true.
22:08
You know that we have uh Well, our
22:12
country has seriously made a lot of mistakes
22:16
And but then this was interesting.
22:19
You don't see this very often china said
22:22
that uh if china's well Rights and interests
22:27
are harmed it will Resolutely take counter measures
22:33
to safeguard our own sovereignty Security and development
22:39
interests They could what are they going to
22:44
do how will they counter it The financial
22:48
times reported that eu officials have begun talks
22:52
on possible secondary sanctions against china Over its
22:57
purchases of russian oil and gas, but they
23:00
want us backing before moving ahead and uh
23:04
You know, everybody knows that since 2022 Russia
23:07
has become the major supplier of oil to
23:10
both china and india And during his recent
23:14
trip to beijing vladimir putin said Well, he
23:17
warned the west against speaking to china and
23:20
india in an unacceptable tone Don't speak to
23:27
them like that.
23:27
They have a vast populations quite true And
23:31
strong domestic political systems also true so I
23:37
I don't know how this this ends but
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uh it I don't think it's going to
23:45
go the way that the u.s. Would
23:47
like it to back last week uh Washington
23:51
said through trump said he would mirror Any
23:55
penalties imposed but he you know, he wants
23:58
them to act first So trump is the
24:01
one who was first saying about all these
24:04
tariffs and uh, Penalties and new packages of
24:08
sanctions and stuff like that Mostly tariffs in
24:12
the first place Then last week late.
24:15
He said well, we're going to wait for
24:17
the uh, european union to impose tariffs And
24:20
he said he that uh, they can impose
24:22
tariffs of up to 100 percent on imports
24:24
of china and russia And then he also
24:26
said some interesting things about uh, Sanctioning russia
24:30
only if every member of nato uh Was
24:35
not buying oil and gas from russia as
24:38
some of them are So, I don't know
24:41
i'm encouraged somewhat by some of the things
24:44
that donald trump says and um, i'm learning
24:49
Maybe I wasn't paying attention during the first
24:52
Trump 45 and trump 47 Maybe i'm catching
24:57
on that.
24:58
He says a lot of things for effect
25:02
or for I don't know what shock value
25:06
or Maybe his art of the deal as
25:10
several people.
25:11
I know like to say he's always negotiating
25:14
And he doesn't mean anything.
25:17
He says that's just how Businessmen throw out
25:20
ideas and See what see what occurs as
25:27
a result I think it's kind of a
25:29
crappy way to do business, but maybe that's
25:33
why i'm not donald trump's, you know, I
25:35
got I got No businesses like donald trump's.
25:38
I don't know but but maybe you are
25:40
always negotiating.
25:41
I don't know but he's he's uh, You
25:44
know according to the financial times he made
25:47
this demand in a recent call meeting with
25:49
the us and eu officials Where they were
25:53
talking about the economic cost of ukraine conflict
25:56
Um the one for russia anyway, and one
25:59
u.s official said that washington was ready
26:02
to go Ready to go right now, but
26:05
we're only going to do this if our
26:07
european partners step up with us The president
26:12
came on this morning, this was the ninth
26:14
and his view is that the obvious approach
26:16
here is Let's put all Let's put let's
26:20
all put on dramatic tariffs and keep the
26:23
tariffs on until the chinese Agree to stop
26:27
buying russian oil the quote Was or the
26:32
source was quoted a second official said that
26:35
the u.s was prepared to Mirror any
26:38
tariffs imposed by brussels on beijing and new
26:41
delhi but brussels in You know can't really
26:48
target or tariff beijing and new delhi because
26:52
Their trade is so high with china and
26:56
getting much larger with india as well So
26:59
we eu officials have already been debating secondary
27:02
sanctions against china and its energy ports from
27:04
moscow But they stressed that the talks are
27:07
in the early stage and theirs are dependent
27:09
upon us support Right.
27:13
So the u.s is saying you do
27:15
it and you know, we'll maybe follow you
27:17
looks like But they're saying well, you know,
27:21
we want you to support what we're doing
27:23
new delhi india They're pushing back against these
27:27
demands to reduce reliance on russian crude Last
27:31
month trump doubled tariffs on indian goods, but
27:34
it didn't do anything.
27:35
Uh indian finance minister Said that move was
27:40
unfair unjustified Unreasonable and said that new delhi's
27:45
oil policy is driven by economic need and
27:50
uh, I got to find these these numbers
27:54
of how much oil We're talking about because
27:58
since 2022 it has gone up so astronomically
28:02
That there's no way they can turn it
28:04
off now It's it's way too much and
28:09
uh beijing also Is rejecting western pressure over
28:13
its own energy and oil purchases and says
28:16
we will ensure our own energy supply Because
28:19
it's in our national interests and uh tariff
28:22
wharves have no winners That's possibly true Far
28:28
be it for me to say anything, but
28:30
it used to be that, uh, you know
28:33
Open markets were something the west touted all
28:37
the time Now I admit that uh, and
28:40
I and I think that in a lot
28:41
of ways trump is correct Especially with trade
28:44
deficit things and stuff like that that if
28:46
you uh, at least equal tariffs between equal
28:51
Countries on equal goods right or the same
28:54
type of goods i'm all for that.
28:56
But uh, and I think It makes sense,
29:00
you know either have a free and open
29:02
markets all the way around or figure out
29:07
Why you you know what you can do
29:10
to to make it even there may be
29:14
Let's say let's say it this way maybe
29:16
if you say it that uh, Aside from
29:19
any special Needs or provisions like you can
29:23
only get A particular item from one particular
29:26
place in the world you know the Common
29:30
similar goods need to have similar treatment cross
29:33
borders Is what I say, but it never
29:36
seems to go that way and it hasn't
29:38
for years so putin cautioned the west against
29:42
their colonial tone Toward beijing and new delhi.
29:48
It's interesting to be listening to the rhetoric
29:50
that's coming out because it's not like it
29:52
was before and and I think well Here's
29:57
another quote countries like india with 1.5
30:02
billion people and china 1.3 billion people
30:06
have powerful economies and live by their own
30:09
domestic political law said putin Talking to such
30:15
partners in such a tone of voice is
30:18
unacceptable meaning you can't You can't I mean
30:23
it's pretty obvious what it means, but you
30:25
can't treat these people like third world countries
30:28
anymore And you know, they shouldn't have to
30:31
put up with it.
30:32
And by the way They aren't anymore.
30:35
They just aren't and that is Uh, you
30:40
know, here's the the eu floating uh your
30:44
active line via Eu is considering penalties on
30:48
foreign banks using the spfs the 19th package
30:52
french and germany pushing the deeper structures us
30:57
pushing tariffs um if you but the the
31:01
fact is If you punish banks for using
31:05
spfs They're routing around you They're speeding straight
31:10
into china's system Which means it's accelerating the
31:14
exit russia's or the us is trying to
31:17
prevent in the first place They don't want
31:19
people to leave swift.
31:21
They don't want to have created Alternative structures
31:24
these these tariffs are doing the same thing.
31:26
So these are companions, right?
31:29
um so Let's see here Year-over-year
31:35
number comparisons uh, if you watch them just
31:38
in the last three years, I want to
31:40
find the ones that talk about the number
31:44
of uh oil transactions because Uh, where are
31:51
we here?
31:52
Hold on.
31:52
I gotta dig through my notes on this
31:56
Because I want to get to the amount
31:58
That it has grown just in Uh Three
32:04
and a half years since the war uh
32:07
started right and get out of these projections
32:15
I have too many notes in this I'm
32:24
gonna keep on going.
32:26
I wanted to talk to you about all
32:27
these packages and there's 19 of them So
32:30
try I want to get around them for
32:32
just a second until we get okay russia
32:35
sold oil for uh Uh, you know, I
32:41
I had two propositions here that I leveled
32:44
to you at the beginning if somebody wants
32:46
money Somebody has trade and you have two
32:51
parties that want to make a trade They
32:54
will find a way to get the money
32:57
to each other So knocking somebody out of
33:00
the swift system and saying you can't use
33:02
swift They're going to do it.
33:06
I thought this when it started happening back
33:09
in 2015 2016 I thought it the same
33:12
when in 2022 it escalated to the way
33:15
it went up and I still believe it
33:17
today and and how do you not believe
33:20
this if I have a a deal that
33:23
I want to make with me and a
33:25
friend but uh, the only way I can
33:30
do that is give money to This bank
33:33
and this bank gives the money back to
33:35
that bank, but the bank says they're not
33:37
going to do it Don't I go around
33:40
that bank and go to somewhere else to
33:42
make sure the same transaction still takes place
33:45
Or maybe I say all right, then don't
33:48
give me money.
33:49
Give me goods instead.
33:50
Let's barter So that's been happening and they've
33:53
created alternative structures So every time we impose
33:57
a new sanction or a new limitation iran
34:02
russia china india everybody that is stuck in
34:07
these Systems where they don't want to be
34:11
told what to do and who they can
34:12
trade with they're coming up with alternative ways
34:15
to get the trade conducted Anyway to avoid
34:20
the sanction to avoid the fact that you
34:23
can't use This banking system we'll get around
34:27
the banking system And it's clear that the
34:31
the transactions are still occurring I mean we're
34:34
19 packages in right?
34:36
And I still want to go through those
34:38
because it's pretty comical to go through all
34:41
of these packages and say did this one
34:43
work?
34:44
Did this one work?
34:45
You know and so I and so point
34:48
one is if somebody wants to make money
34:51
They're always going to find a way to
34:52
get it and you know, if they want
34:54
to make a trade and the second one
34:57
Has to anybody who has teenagers knows this?
35:00
Okay.
35:00
This is true This is like an immutable
35:04
truth of of of youth and of sovereign
35:10
countries If you tell someone you cannot I'm
35:17
you can't do this Without some sort of
35:22
fair basis or convincing or working together They'll
35:29
defy you out of principle and out of
35:32
pride now, what does what do now your
35:35
kids are doing it because they're they're feeling
35:38
their They're feeling their adulthood.
35:41
They're feeling that they get to make their
35:43
own decisions.
35:44
Well as countries Grow up as countries become
35:49
more Familiar with the world more familiar with
35:55
trade more They want that sovereign we've discussed
35:59
this repeatedly that our system has always been
36:04
to tell Countries what they are going to
36:07
do and we've done it You know, you
36:10
know we i'm not involved in that but
36:12
our country has done it for ever for
36:16
centuries People have colonialized other places and told
36:20
them what they will do And now i've
36:24
not done that.
36:25
I don't want to tell people what to
36:26
do I don't agree with that sort of
36:27
that sort of behavior.
36:29
I think if you want to do something
36:31
You know unless it's illegal immoral unethical, you
36:34
know, and even if it is There are
36:37
penalties for it You figure out the penalties,
36:40
but so my two immutable truths are one
36:43
if somebody wants to earn money They're going
36:45
to find a way to get it You
36:47
know if they have a trade and especially
36:48
if you're in and then number two you
36:51
tell somebody no They're instant, you know that
36:54
they cannot do something without real justification or
36:59
a justification they disagree with They're gonna do
37:03
it anyway And so it's not just philosophical
37:07
Here, it's a borne out by history economics
37:11
psychology.
37:12
This is how people think right?
37:14
So let's take my first reality That uh
37:19
money always finds a way you find your
37:21
way to get the money money money's gonna
37:24
happen Here's the reality Energy sanctions Energy sanctions,
37:31
this is what we've been energy sanctioning forever
37:36
We were told nobody can have the money
37:38
so initially russia sold oil through india and
37:42
china and india and china Often just relabeled
37:47
the cargo and sold it to the original
37:49
people that were buying it Anyway in europe,
37:53
this is why europe can't sanction China and
37:57
india because that's where they're getting a lot
37:59
of their oil anyway uh oil products anyway
38:02
in gas and remember these uh pipelines that
38:06
I told you about before that are going
38:09
uh into china and then the one that
38:11
they Just approved to go through mongolia, too
38:13
These are huge deals and they were finished
38:17
During this time period so part of it
38:19
was natural anyway And china and india can't
38:22
do without any of this stuff.
38:24
So what are they going to do?
38:25
Turn it off.
38:27
I don't think so They can't why would
38:29
and they aren't going to buy it from
38:30
the us for quite a bit more It's
38:33
just not going to happen and it doesn't
38:34
work for them financially economically, um And profit
38:40
wise so What about technology bans russia's been
38:44
banned from having technology?
38:47
russia turned to Parallel import structure through turkey
38:51
and the gulf same chips Intermediaries they're getting
38:56
them from medium intermediaries Frozen assets and I
39:00
want to do a separate little bit about
39:01
that these frozen assets the profits have been
39:05
skimmed now that's wrong, but okay, uh, they're
39:10
trying to justify now trump's trying to convince
39:12
brussels to uh, Steal the whole corpus of
39:15
the money the the the asset itself and
39:19
not just skim the profits off Because they've
39:23
scaled skimmed off 9 billion and sent it
39:25
over to ukraine already so But profits have
39:29
been skimmed but russia and the partners are
39:32
now building alternative financial structures and More importantly
39:38
other people in the world are looking at
39:41
this and what have we seen?
39:43
We have seen a huge increase in the
39:47
purchase of Hard assets gold that is that
39:53
that is astronomical what's been going on with
39:58
Foreign countries buying gold and holding their reserves
40:02
in gold and not putting money in western
40:07
structures That's already cost them Because the rest
40:11
of the world sits and looks at this
40:13
and go jeez If they could freeze our
40:15
assets they can freeze everybody's, you know here
40:18
I am in saudi arabia I don't think
40:20
i'm gonna park my money there.
40:22
I'm gonna buy another pallet of gold And
40:26
put it in my underground fortress below my
40:28
palace That's what i'm gonna do Because i'll
40:32
be damned if the west is gonna take
40:34
my money when this happens And so that's
40:37
a natural effect, you know, you can't deny
40:40
that that is happening because it is There
40:43
are all kinds of reports about gold silver
40:46
any other structures platinum people are buying in
40:50
huge quantities governments buying it and less and
40:55
less is being kept in these structures and
40:58
people are Having alternative structures.
41:01
You can't get away from swift right now
41:04
But that doesn't mean you can't build an
41:06
alternative And so people are going to these
41:10
new systems and they're not going to take
41:12
to us telling them no so the faster
41:15
Europe and the u.s Tries to say
41:18
you can't access these systems.
41:20
You can't you can't you can't the more
41:23
they are and so that's Reality number one
41:28
money will find its own way.
41:30
And then the second one the reality number
41:32
two Is when you're told you're not If
41:36
you tell india it cannot buy discounted russian
41:40
oil what has it done It has doubled
41:45
down and said, you know what don't tell
41:47
me what I can and cannot do If
41:50
only to show that you can't dictate to
41:53
me That this is it doesn't What other
41:56
reason can they be doing it for?
41:58
Tell russia it cannot access swift Which it
42:02
did in 2014 after crimea, you know, we'll
42:05
we'll fix you We'll knock you out of
42:07
the we'll knock you out of the financial
42:09
structure They built their own and they plugged
42:12
into the chinese one after the chinese built
42:14
it Moving along smartly.
42:17
They just keep on going tell china.
42:19
It cannot grow an rmb clearing facility the
42:24
transactional conversations daily It accelerates its own Financial
42:30
structure and gets 5 000 banks connected 5
42:35
000 uh, the act of prohibition just is
42:40
Accelerating the exact outcome That the the west
42:44
is trying to prevent they don't want these
42:47
new structures because long term they damage the
42:53
Globalists they damage the ability of us to
42:57
tell us Of the west to tell the
43:00
rest of the world what they will do
43:04
So, I mean it's not an agenda driven.
43:06
It's cause and effect This is cause and
43:09
this is simple It's they don't nobody cares
43:12
about the western agenda anymore.
43:14
They care about cause and effect.
43:16
Tell me I can't I will and Uh,
43:20
tell me the the financial system is no
43:22
longer available.
43:23
I'll build my own.
43:24
We'll figure it out money finds a way,
43:26
right?
43:27
So Uh I do want to get into
43:33
the sanctions for sure when we get there,
43:36
but The reality of life is if russia
43:40
wants to sell oil i'll find some way
43:42
to pay for it If europe closed the
43:45
door to russian gas indian china open the
43:48
window You know, that's that's how it works
43:51
so I I Let's let's talk a tiny
43:55
bit about this timeline because the timeline of
44:00
both the sanctions and the uh Um frozen
44:10
assets Are pretty similar.
44:14
Okay, they they unfolded over the same trajectory
44:18
so crimea between 2014 and 2017 there were
44:23
sanctions and then uh While brussels was packaging
44:31
more sanctions one through 18 came from 2014
44:35
to 27 I'm, sorry one through Well, you
44:39
know what?
44:39
I'll get to the list later Who who
44:41
cares when they come out but we'll get
44:42
to that in just a second It was
44:45
also freezing and skimming money from the russians
44:49
So the two stories are really one story
44:52
coercion through finance and they both are having
44:55
the same assault result russia's building new systems
44:59
china's building alternatives and the partners including um
45:04
India are rebelling against all this.
45:07
They don't want to hear it anymore So
45:09
what is my basis to believe in this?
45:12
First of all economics look at economic studies
45:15
economic studies show that sanctions do not achieve
45:18
the political objectives They claim to but almost
45:21
always trigger trade diversion and circumvention Uh, you
45:27
can read these in imf papers on the
45:29
russian sanctions today And I read a couple
45:32
of those and went through them.
45:34
They say the same thing.
45:35
This is international monetary funds saying sanctions don't
45:38
work History historic think about this There was
45:44
a u.s. Embargo on cuba In the
45:47
60s, right?
45:49
I mean all the way through the present.
45:50
And so what has happened has havana collapsed
45:53
You could argue that havana hasn't developed as
45:56
fast as it should have but it didn't
45:57
collapse It turned to the venice, uh, venezuela
46:01
recently before that the ussr and they didn't
46:07
They didn't collapse, you know, that wasn't the
46:09
end iran sanctions I watched something that iran
46:13
is just uh, unbelievably Booming especially in education
46:19
right now and uh Engineers, I was shocked
46:25
by that That iran is like number four
46:28
in the world as far as number of
46:30
engineers that they're churning out their education system
46:33
is extremely, uh, extremely uh Capable um iran
46:41
sanctions, so smuggling Barter, they joined the yuan
46:46
clearing and it said the money is finding
46:49
a way.
46:49
They're still you know, they're partners with china
46:52
remember me going through all the stories about
46:55
uh, um, the Rail and port initiatives going
47:01
through iran and russia finalizing the last leg
47:05
Of that, uh alternative rail system to an
47:08
uh delivery system to avoid the suez canal
47:11
that's all out there rhodesia 1960s same deal
47:16
oil keeps flowing through south africa.
47:19
So basically in psychology they call this the
47:23
reactants theory people respond to restrictions By asserting
47:28
their own freedom Just like a teenager And
47:32
you can scale it up to nations too
47:35
so I I don't know.
47:38
I think that uh if they can take
47:43
Russia's reserves they can take yours.
47:46
I think that resonates around the globe You
47:50
know first they freeze the assets Then they
47:54
skim the profits of the assets Now they
47:58
talk of taking the principle and taking the
48:01
trump's trying to talk them into doing it
48:03
Thinking that'll end the war it won't but
48:06
that's what that's the argument Uh law is
48:11
being rewritten trump said rewrite your laws pick
48:15
something different so that we can make you
48:18
know Take their money, you know, let's let's
48:20
take russia's money That's a mistake You know,
48:24
it's time we tell it straight they're teaching
48:27
the world that uh rules based You know,
48:31
and this has been going on for a
48:32
long time but these same people that we've
48:36
been Allowing to Deep state our own country
48:42
have been trying to deep state the world
48:44
and now That everybody knows that it's uh,
48:47
you know, a lot of the things that
48:49
they're doing.
48:50
They're a lot more visible Uh that they
48:53
rewrite the law every time we turn around
48:56
and that this rules based means the old
49:00
uh rules for you, but You know not
49:03
for me And so you can trace this
49:07
from anywhere china india the whole global south
49:11
And why pushing it too far is going
49:13
to break your own system eventually And that's
49:17
what I believe so let's talk about this
49:22
Sanctions packages because I did want to get
49:25
to these key failures the energy sanctions they
49:31
failed export control bans turkey uae all Didn't
49:37
work humanitarian Soft sanctions that really didn't get
49:42
anywhere Here's a quote for you guy named
49:46
dimitri nikrasov Said sanctions against russia's and economists
49:52
sanctions against russia were doomed to fail Some
49:56
of them have even boosted the russian economy
50:01
And there's a uh Another article came out
50:06
The articles down but not out the russian
50:10
economy under western sanctions This came out a
50:14
little bit a little bit ago a couple
50:16
of months ago Russia has adjusted sheltered itself
50:21
with real allies And traded aggressively eastward sanctions
50:27
compressed briefly, but did not collapse russia means
50:33
and so uh I don't know what more
50:39
you need to say that these are they're
50:41
they're just not working Um, I wanted to
50:44
talk a little bit about the profits versus
50:47
the the corpus debate and their legal Justifications.
50:52
First of all, I don't think they have
50:54
even the legal justification to take the Profits
50:58
because they've sent over nine million nine billion.
51:01
I mean to ukraine from russia's profits seized
51:04
in brussels Because they you know, they were
51:07
forced to take it.
51:08
So in the west Here's janet yellen, you
51:12
remember her she said there's no sense at
51:15
all that it would be called theft She
51:19
said, you know people are saying you can't
51:21
steal another country's money and give it to
51:24
Ukraine, and she said well, there's no sense
51:27
in that argument the assets remain in institutions
51:32
where they generate income And russia cannot claim
51:37
the income right now, so she was saying
51:40
that to justify Taking just the profits which
51:45
they've been doing for a couple years now
51:49
um and She also vows that new sanctions
51:55
uh to catch escape routes for russian money,
51:58
uh will will Hamper russia's ability to backfill
52:02
any losses that they're getting from the income
52:05
Or that they would have been getting on
52:07
the income from these assets and uh Jai
52:12
shankar from india had something very interesting to
52:16
say about that.
52:17
Uh The other day when they were telling
52:20
him that these sanctions, you know, they're questioning
52:24
him again On these sanctions and why are
52:27
you buying from russia?
52:29
And he says listen we buy from who
52:31
we like to buy from his quote From
52:34
times of india was if you don't like
52:36
it You don't buy it You know, but
52:39
india defends its purchase purchases as stabilizing its
52:43
own energy market and constantly and continually is
52:47
accusing the west of double standards and Frankly,
52:51
I agree So it's a pretty thin legal
52:54
basis to take russia's money and everybody you
52:59
ask about that in the political, uh circles
53:02
are And in fact, even this bank this
53:05
euro clear is saying man, we really can't
53:08
take this money.
53:09
We can't do it But that doesn't mean
53:11
they won't Especially now with trump trying to
53:15
get them to uh to take it um
53:20
Let's see Let's let's come up with some
53:23
foolish commentary would I like to call it?
53:26
from our own Elite class over here those
53:31
who are who are so hell-bent on
53:34
taking russia's um money and assets and sanctions
53:39
and creating something new to change the uh
53:44
To change the trajectory that they come up
53:47
with these foolish commentaries ready here's scott besant
53:51
and that guy's a genius say that facetiously
53:56
uh Here's him about his threats of secondary
54:01
tariffs on india and china and pressure on
54:04
foreign banks tied to uh SPFS and janet
54:09
yellen says our collective efforts have cut russia
54:12
off Right.
54:14
This was in 2023 in may.
54:16
She said this Our collective efforts have cut
54:20
russia off from key inputs drastically limiting revenue
54:26
But she's completely wrong in that their revenue
54:29
and their their gdp went up Uh 3
54:32
.8 during a period when the rest of
54:35
europe's, you know, there were a lot of
54:37
people on the decline and She said she
54:40
continues We will not be indifferent to those
54:45
who undermine sanctions she says And here's von
54:52
der leyen from european commission.
54:54
She says she's backing the loans and profit
54:57
schemes You know to ukraine.
54:59
She says she calls them reparations So she
55:03
gets to unilaterally just declare reparations are necessary
55:08
To compensate ukraine and punish russia's aggression.
55:11
She said that in a recent speech Typical
55:15
statements are like this sanctions must be enforced
55:18
All countries must be part of the burden.
55:21
We cannot allow russia to circumvent.
55:24
It's always russia russia russia And critics and
55:27
global voices.
55:28
Here's a guy named frederic la serre head
55:31
of research At a company called gun for
55:34
a think tank.
55:35
It says unless sanctions target the actual buyers
55:40
Like china and india Sanctions remain largely symbolic
55:45
that was reported in reuters Here this uh
55:48
russian guy nakrasov that I told you about
55:50
he said it's absurd and disconnected To think
55:53
that sanctions will work many of them bolster
55:57
russia's resilience Indian press and public analysts the
56:02
west sets new rules on the fly india
56:06
will do What protects its people and its
56:10
energy security?
56:16
I have wanted to get into the projections
56:19
of what happens if they do what?
56:24
trump is encouraging in the eu And Take
56:29
russia's 300 billion.
56:34
I think that there's going to be a
56:36
military effect I think there will be a
56:42
global trust effect And a financial effect and
56:48
then philosophically that you know, it folds right
56:51
back into what I was saying uh before
56:55
so let's start with If they take the
57:00
money I think that you then because it's
57:04
already predicted that this chinese system is going
57:07
to overtake the swift system this in in
57:13
especially in asia and eurasia by 2030 or
57:20
31 at the base year if it goes
57:23
faster, which means if they Speed it up
57:26
by stealing money from russia And handing it
57:29
over to ukraine I think you're going to
57:32
see an exodus even quicker And people are
57:36
more people are going to run to The
57:39
chinese system.
57:40
That's what I think And uh, the predictions
57:43
that they say is that it would then
57:46
speed up Uh by a couple of years
57:49
like 2027 2028 so if somebody steals 300
57:54
billion of a country's money and hands it
57:56
to another country Which trump is trying to
57:59
convince brussels to do?
58:02
I think it speeds up the exit from
58:04
swift.
58:05
That's what I think Or not exit, but
58:08
the alternative structure grows faster and it's our
58:12
like it's already slated to overtake swift By
58:15
2030 31, so I think that would just
58:18
speed it up Uh the military effect.
58:21
I think that ukraine would get a short
58:25
-term bump a little more money buy some
58:30
more weapons, maybe Attract some more.
58:34
I don't know what mercenaries they they don't
58:37
have any people left and you know, they
58:39
still Makes me wonder a little bit because
58:42
they still haven't um Lowered their age any
58:47
further from the 25 Like the west keeps
58:50
encouraging them to do to lower the age
58:53
to 18 like everywhere else And they still
58:57
haven't done that But they if the money
59:00
is seized and given to ukraine this 300
59:02
billion that will get a bump for ukraine
59:05
but ukraine, um You can't get enough people
59:11
the money will just be stolen like it
59:14
always is corruption abounds It's everywhere But russia's
59:17
war economy has already shifted heavily You toward
59:22
its home?
59:25
Supply lines, you know everything they get they're
59:27
learning right now They are perhaps the most
59:33
independent country with its own They get all
59:37
their raw not all but the Vast majority
59:41
of their own raw materials are available inside
59:45
their own country And so they've looked inward
59:49
their nationalist Tendency, which has always been around
59:53
is now extremely strong There are examples.
59:58
What did they do when?
1:00:00
McDonald's left.
1:00:01
What did they do when pepsi left?
1:00:03
What did they do when?
1:00:06
I don't know starbucks left They ended up
1:00:10
with different things and they created their they
1:00:14
created their own And now some of these
1:00:16
places are wanting to come back and they're
1:00:18
not letting them You know, there was indication
1:00:21
that mcdonald's want to come back.
1:00:22
They're like no screw you now We're вкусный
1:00:25
точка, you know, we're tasty period is that
1:00:28
and and we're gonna stay that way so
1:00:32
I I think That the creation of alternative,
1:00:36
uh effects Has has harmed.
1:00:42
Um There are the rest of the world
1:00:46
and the corporations that left much more than
1:00:49
they harmed russia and so I'm, very concerned
1:00:54
that if they do take this money that
1:00:56
there will be a If it hasn't occurred
1:00:59
already a global trust collapse And I think
1:01:04
that's possible You know if some if they
1:01:07
take 300 billion from russia and hand it
1:01:10
to ukraine other central banks around the world
1:01:15
are gonna say If principle is unsafe, we
1:01:19
have to put our reserves somewhere else We
1:01:23
already know about the gold hoarding.
1:01:26
We already know that people are avoiding the
1:01:29
uh, western, uh exchange systems and settlement systems
1:01:36
And we already know that philosophy Is going
1:01:39
to make people?
1:01:42
Uh Exit as well And and right now
1:01:47
there's a ton of pushback on these efforts
1:01:50
as as well india Jaishankar speaks of red
1:01:55
lines india's continuous import of russian crude and
1:01:59
argues that energy Security and stable markets are
1:02:03
far more important than honoring, uh sanctions on
1:02:08
behalf of the u.s for You know,
1:02:10
they have been pretty standard, uh responses on
1:02:14
their take on the ukraine war It's something
1:02:17
that doesn't They don't blame russia A lot
1:02:23
most of the rest of the world take
1:02:25
a kind of a neutral position on that
1:02:27
knowing what everybody else knows This is a
1:02:32
proxy war for the west and the u
1:02:35
.s And it never should have happened.
1:02:37
By the way, if trump was still saying,
1:02:40
you know what?
1:02:40
I haven't heard him say lately That's joe
1:02:43
biden's war.
1:02:44
That's not my war And you know, he
1:02:47
he had the opportunity.
1:02:49
He still has it if he eased out
1:02:54
Word be over pretty damn soon still I
1:02:57
was watching a lot of the videos that
1:02:59
uh, uh Russia is still gaining on the
1:03:03
ground at a at a pretty pretty steady
1:03:06
rate and that uh, sirsky has moved most
1:03:10
of his troops to uh, The pokrovsk region
1:03:13
and they've actually had a little bit of
1:03:15
a counteroffensive down there The russian side is
1:03:18
saying that uh, yeah, they've had some but
1:03:21
it's really cost them in lives, which is
1:03:23
probably true But where it's cost him more
1:03:26
Is in the gains by russia in the
1:03:29
other areas because they sucked all the units
1:03:32
away from these other parts the front put
1:03:35
them all in pokrovsk, so because they don't
1:03:38
They don't want to lose that but what
1:03:40
has that done?
1:03:40
It has made russia jump over on the
1:03:43
the Into zaparizhia.
1:03:45
I'm, sorry, uh, nepropetrovsk from zaparizhia And a
1:03:50
couple other places as well and on the
1:03:52
northern Uh front they're advancing in the central
1:03:56
front they're advancing but in pokrovsk, it's uh,
1:03:58
you know, they're slogging it out and uh,
1:04:01
there's even been talk that says that uh,
1:04:05
They talked about pokrovsk on purpose To get
1:04:10
sirsky to move his men to counter-attack
1:04:14
right there because they knew that politically that's
1:04:18
uh, it's a It's a very They don't
1:04:22
want to lose that city, you know It
1:04:24
makes it makes it horror story for for
1:04:27
the rest of ukraine that they that they
1:04:29
lose pokrovsk And so they encouraged them to
1:04:32
come there Meanwhile russia's attacking all up and
1:04:35
down the front lines and other places and
1:04:37
holding their own in pokrovsk But they did
1:04:41
that to encourage them to come on but
1:04:43
they're having big gains everywhere else So, I
1:04:46
don't know this uh, uh Trade data That
1:04:51
you know, I was telling you about before
1:04:53
I got distracted India's stance on jai shankar
1:04:57
and his red lines, but the trade data
1:04:59
europe imported Lng in record volumes in 2024
1:05:05
And that's what india is complaining about as
1:05:08
well.
1:05:08
They say, you know Why is it okay
1:05:12
for europe to import lng in record volumes
1:05:16
last year, but we can't import uh You
1:05:20
know, we're being sanctioned for trade with russia
1:05:26
and uh So india's trade with russia surged
1:05:29
in the past couple of years and in
1:05:31
the eu in the u.s. They criticize
1:05:32
india For this but everybody sees it as
1:05:36
hypocrisy.
1:05:37
I know I do You know if you're
1:05:39
important lng and and buying, uh Indian gas
1:05:44
that you or oil I mean that you
1:05:47
know came from russia And it's okay for
1:05:50
them to buy it, but you can't buy
1:05:52
it from them directly, but then you buy
1:05:54
it from india That it's kind of hypocrisy
1:05:57
and everybody is saying so And so that's
1:06:02
india's point.
1:06:04
Um India's balancing sanctions um And they want
1:06:10
to discuss their strategic autonomy.
1:06:13
Well, what are they thinking in russia and
1:06:14
china?
1:06:15
We all know Kremlin says profit skimming is
1:06:19
unlawful It is theft And they accuse the
1:06:25
west of rewriting international law.
1:06:27
We talked some about that last night with
1:06:30
the west kind of avoiding International law when
1:06:35
it's uncomfortable for them like it was in
1:06:37
kosovo and the other places we discussed last
1:06:40
night um It still upsets me a little
1:06:44
bit that I didn't recall all of that
1:06:46
and and how recent it was But those
1:06:49
are really just the last three That have
1:06:51
come up.
1:06:52
Uh, you know kosovo Ukraine and now bosnia
1:06:57
and i'm very much interested in this.
1:06:59
Uh, october 15th.
1:07:01
It's only a month plus away so russia
1:07:06
doesn't want uh or Says that you know
1:07:09
stealing Don't steal our money china's position Chinese
1:07:14
banks are very wary of u.s. Sanctions
1:07:17
and beijing publicly fights back Calling it u
1:07:22
.s. And eu overreach Long-arm jurisdiction And
1:07:28
call it unfair competition you remember when Yellen
1:07:33
warning was warning china about their special relationship
1:07:37
with russia and said they couldn't that she
1:07:40
was really worried about it and uh china's
1:07:43
like and You're worried about our relationship with
1:07:48
somebody else.
1:07:48
What do you care?
1:07:49
China says sanctions are unilateral and unfair.
1:07:52
They don't really discuss anything with anybody before
1:07:55
they just uh institute sanctions you know and
1:08:00
uh I I Would like to see some
1:08:06
different, uh Uh Models of what we do
1:08:13
but it just Uh, where's where's the trump
1:08:18
47 quotes?
1:08:20
What is trump been saying on this?
1:08:23
Let's see Recently he said, you know He
1:08:28
said the following in addition to saying that
1:08:30
he wanted to steal the money or wanted
1:08:32
brussels to figure it out Here here's what
1:08:35
he said about uh sanctions only if nato
1:08:38
stops buying russian oil Here is on september
1:08:42
13 The u.s. Will do major new
1:08:46
sanctions after all nato members Stop buying russian
1:08:52
oil Now think about that.
1:08:57
It was it was only a couple of
1:08:58
weeks ago That he was talking about these
1:09:01
sanctions and he was all lindsey graham And
1:09:04
now we haven't heard from lindsey graham in
1:09:06
a little while lindsey graham.
1:09:07
I wonder how long it's been since he's
1:09:09
been in kiev Um, what has trump said
1:09:13
about using tariffs as leverage?
1:09:16
He's still a pretty strong Tariff dude, and
1:09:21
it was the same day as he said
1:09:23
this on september 13.
1:09:25
He said tariffs of 50 to 100 on
1:09:28
china Because he was linking chinese purchase of
1:09:31
russian oil to prolonging the war said that
1:09:34
it would be uh A way to stop
1:09:39
Russia from being able to spite the war
1:09:41
same thing on india.
1:09:43
He said india.
1:09:44
That is a big deal Because it will
1:09:46
cause a rift with india.
1:09:48
He said that on his fox interview excerpt
1:09:51
um on the on the 13th as well
1:09:54
And on sanctions posture toward banks and oil
1:09:59
that the eu are imposing here's what he
1:10:01
said He said we're going to have to
1:10:04
come down very very strong And hit them
1:10:08
very hard with sanctions banks oil and tariffs
1:10:13
so putting it all together his quotes are
1:10:16
What it really sounds like to me because
1:10:18
nothing is ever definite you with him This
1:10:21
is all kind of an art of the
1:10:23
deal saber rattling threats to press nato first
1:10:27
Then swing tariffs at china and possibly india,
1:10:31
but floating asset seizure in g7 talks whether
1:10:35
this is a leverage or self-defeating brinksmanship
1:10:39
You know, it's up to you to decide
1:10:41
I can't figure it out with trump because
1:10:43
he changes his mind So often he says
1:10:46
one thing one day and something else differently
1:10:49
and You know Uh, what so euro clear
1:10:53
says about taking the money That the eu
1:10:56
plans to juice returns on frozen russian asset
1:11:00
wrists And they call it expropriation with huge
1:11:05
Legal liability according to a financial times interview.
1:11:09
So these you know stealing the money, you
1:11:13
know um I I don't think it's a
1:11:19
good plan and I don't think they're going
1:11:20
to be able to uh Come up with
1:11:24
a legal basis To take that money.
1:11:28
I don't think they're going to be able
1:11:29
to do it so What do we know
1:11:34
about package 19, uh other than what they've
1:11:38
said about this, uh uh tariffs against uh
1:11:44
People that deal with russia buying oil and
1:11:47
gas and going after banks that uh Zu
1:11:50
going after banks.
1:11:52
Is there a 19th package that we were
1:11:53
talking about?
1:11:55
Well They say they're going to defeat russia.
1:12:00
But again if the 18th package Hasn't done
1:12:05
anything what makes us think the 19th is
1:12:07
going to do it, right?
1:12:09
If russia's model is dying You know if
1:12:13
they're winning why do we need a 19th
1:12:16
package?
1:12:17
And why do we need the corpus seizure
1:12:20
of this 300 billion that's in the bank?
1:12:22
And why do we need 100% tariffs
1:12:25
on china after 18 packages?
1:12:28
Don't you think it should you know that?
1:12:32
I suppose you could rephrase the question to
1:12:34
ask it like this If you input the
1:12:37
19th sanction Uh, is it gonna work is
1:12:41
it guaranteed or will we need a 20th
1:12:44
package?
1:12:45
Because every time we hear the oh, yeah,
1:12:47
this is the one this is the one
1:12:49
we got him now We got him now.
1:12:52
I don't feel like we got him now
1:12:55
um all these ultimatums all these comments by
1:13:02
josh shankar All this expropriation talk by euro
1:13:06
clear All the 19 packages What have we
1:13:11
done?
1:13:11
We've we've choked trust In western systems, that's
1:13:16
what we've choked We haven't chuh chuh choked
1:13:21
russia You know if number 47 takes the
1:13:26
money It doesn't end the war It ends
1:13:32
the credibility of western Banking structures and gives
1:13:39
another instance where We change the rules Change
1:13:46
law After the fact and imply apply it
1:13:53
to someone as a penalty and Justify it,
1:13:59
you know and people people are sick of
1:14:01
that.
1:14:01
They really frankly i'm sick of it I
1:14:03
I think that that you put rules in
1:14:05
place.
1:14:06
I think that Freezing the money in the
1:14:08
first place.
1:14:09
I remember Having conversations with people about that
1:14:13
whether you can just freeze somebody's stuff because
1:14:16
you disagree with what they're doing Have they
1:14:18
done that to everyone?
1:14:20
We're still holding money from iran or something
1:14:22
like that from 30 50 years ago That
1:14:25
money is still being held So, I don't
1:14:29
know here's some uh some uh critics One
1:14:37
one think tank says russia's model no longer
1:14:41
delivers, right Uh, well Another one says seizing
1:14:51
profits isn't theft Because the principle stays put
1:14:57
right and both of these are are similar
1:15:00
But even euro clear calls it expropriation And
1:15:04
theft The profits only exist because brussels took
1:15:12
someone else's money and Gave the profit gave
1:15:17
the profit to somebody else so They wouldn't
1:15:20
have gotten the profit if they didn't steal
1:15:22
the money.
1:15:23
So my thought process is they've stolen the
1:15:25
money already and that is not gonna It
1:15:29
doesn't Lend itself to encouraging more come more,
1:15:37
uh people to Have trust in the system,
1:15:41
right?
1:15:43
So what I wanted to do was get
1:15:45
into these uh kind of give you a
1:15:49
history of the sanctions package And each one
1:15:53
of them and give a history of them
1:15:55
and I have to find them because these
1:15:59
sanctions Uh Where are they Where
1:16:09
they had a whole spreadsheet of them and
1:16:11
i'm having trouble finding them That they show
1:16:16
up.
1:16:17
Come home.
1:16:18
Give them up so Here we go Package
1:16:28
one So here we go 2014 2015 during
1:16:35
crimea packages 1 through 18 and I I
1:16:39
Start they started with package one, which were
1:16:43
travel bans there were people saying No, russians
1:16:47
can have schengen visas and the schengen visa
1:16:50
is the one that allows you So when
1:16:52
you come into europe and you come into
1:16:55
france That means you can freely cross the
1:16:58
border with another country.
1:17:00
You don't have to transfer well, that's because
1:17:02
they opened the borders long ago and remember
1:17:04
if uh Maybe military people knew this that
1:17:07
have been over there for a bunch of
1:17:09
time I did this, you know and you
1:17:10
could come into one country and you're not
1:17:13
stopped at the border of france between france
1:17:15
and germany Or france in any other country.
1:17:18
It's a you know, spain or anything and
1:17:21
so a schengen basically gives you a visa
1:17:24
to come into any european country and Continue
1:17:27
on into any of the rest with only
1:17:29
having the one visa, right?
1:17:31
And they were trying to say in package
1:17:33
one that russians weren't allowed to have any
1:17:37
Uh, I believe that one is mostly gone.
1:17:39
I was reading an article on that one
1:17:41
the other day and then they froze assets
1:17:45
of officials of uh, governmental officials that were
1:17:49
located outside of russia, that was 2014 2015
1:17:54
and in the same year They had restrictions
1:17:57
on crimea trade so crimea couldn't trade with
1:18:00
other people that was package number two package
1:18:04
number three They put ban on arms and
1:18:08
military goods so you couldn't buy or sell
1:18:10
from russia And none of these things meant
1:18:14
that russia gave back You know the crimea
1:18:18
it didn't work Package four they had the
1:18:21
ban on capital market access for certain russian
1:18:26
banks I think the last one they touched
1:18:29
was the gasprom bank.
1:18:32
Um uh In 2023 they took that one,
1:18:37
but we'll get to that in a minute
1:18:38
And so those were the first sets which
1:18:41
came out in 20.
1:18:42
Um 2015 2015 and uh, they also engaged
1:18:49
in you know restrictions on offshore energy technology
1:18:54
some asset freezing that weren't necessarily any Packages
1:18:59
of sanctions, but they were restricting the same
1:19:02
Or expanding the ones the first four up
1:19:05
above so in 2022 To We had the
1:19:12
flood of new sanctions there was a flood
1:19:14
of them, okay first package five Was an
1:19:17
embargo on coal that was going to take
1:19:20
care of them.
1:19:21
That was going to fix them up It
1:19:23
didn't but uh, that's what the the speech
1:19:27
was coal embargo Package number six 2022 also
1:19:34
oil embargo, right?
1:19:38
They've been fighting about this, you know since
1:19:41
2022 and onward package number seven Swift ban
1:19:46
on major russian banks all the rest of
1:19:48
them They will accept gas problem that didn't
1:19:52
get done until 2024 and then uh Package
1:19:56
eight more luxury goods.
1:19:58
They were banning things like Fashion clothing they
1:20:03
were banning.
1:20:05
Um, I don't know what uh gold And
1:20:07
and stuff like that and packages 9 through
1:20:11
18 here here we go a whole list
1:20:16
Machine tools so russia couldn't import or sell
1:20:20
any machine tools, but they still sell to
1:20:23
uh, a lot of their colleagues aviation parts
1:20:26
you heard me talk last week about um
1:20:30
belarus Uh having that sanctions lifted because they
1:20:34
have some western plane and so uh belarus
1:20:37
can now get aviation parts uh dual use
1:20:41
technology and I looked that up, but I
1:20:42
can't remember what it is, but uh, uh
1:20:45
It has something to do with computers and
1:20:47
stuff like that, but it was also semiconductors
1:20:51
uh were limited in one of the packages
1:20:54
9 through 18 and then um Industrial components
1:20:59
were also sanctioned or blacklisted And then more
1:21:04
importantly and they they started targeting individuals through
1:21:08
this package 9 through 18 more than 1
1:21:13
,500 individuals in russia have been Sanctioned including
1:21:19
people from whole sectors uh that were Uh
1:21:26
people like remember they sanctioned a lot of
1:21:28
the people who uh Broadcast radio or talk
1:21:33
bad about uh uh, the war the west
1:21:37
anything like that like soloviev and um, uh
1:21:41
maria zakharova any of these foreign ministers, they're
1:21:46
all Blacklisted, but there's a lot of public
1:21:49
officials that are too But yet what has
1:21:52
been the result of all of these sanctions
1:21:56
over that time So we've been sanctioning the
1:21:59
hell out of them since 2014 11 years
1:22:03
And what's the result?
1:22:05
The imf reported that russian gdp grew 3
1:22:10
.6 percent in 2023 We haven't seen the
1:22:15
reports for 2024 yet, but it was expected
1:22:17
to be a similar number And but in
1:22:20
2023 it was stronger than germany stronger than
1:22:24
the uk Stronger than france Their internal inflation
1:22:29
came down in russia, but it was going
1:22:32
up everywhere else factories adapted to internal Internal
1:22:38
uh markets got all their stuff.
1:22:40
They substituted imports exports are rerouted And uh
1:22:47
You know a lot of economists including that
1:22:49
one I told you about earlier that uh
1:22:52
nikrasov they said um, um that sanctions are
1:22:56
doomed to fail I I believe that for
1:22:59
myself, you know just from the very beginning
1:23:01
I was like, you know, i'm not so
1:23:03
sure that this is gonna work and obviously
1:23:06
it hasn't and so here we are on
1:23:09
package 19 This one was just you know
1:23:15
We just had package 18 About a month
1:23:19
ago, maybe six weeks, but 18 was only
1:23:22
finished up a month ago And so then
1:23:25
this is mainly being pushed by france and
1:23:27
germany as I said, and they're they want
1:23:29
to sanction foreign banks As I said throughout
1:23:34
this entire show that's not going to work
1:23:37
and You're you're active the organization that uh
1:23:47
Is in you know works with euro clear
1:23:49
measures should strike at the deep structure of
1:23:52
russia's financial and logistics network but You know
1:23:58
my rules from above You know people are
1:24:02
going to be defiant if you tell them
1:24:04
no The more you tell india you can't
1:24:08
the more india says watch me do do
1:24:10
what I want to do The more you
1:24:12
punish neutral banks the more they plug into
1:24:15
china's sips So every package builds the very
1:24:19
thing that they're trying to avoid And it
1:24:22
helps russia.
1:24:23
So I don't think you're uh You're uh
1:24:27
19 Packages are going to work as far
1:24:32
as the seizure of frozen assets As I
1:24:36
said legal thin ice um Do you remember
1:24:42
I mean do you remember when they had
1:24:45
uh, Tried to justify this back a couple
1:24:48
of years ago.
1:24:48
Do you remember that?
1:24:49
It was back in Mid 2022 early 2023.
1:24:56
I can't remember but it was they had
1:24:58
a un general assembly trying to pass a
1:25:01
resolution to create a Kind of a Register
1:25:07
of damage, right?
1:25:09
They wanted ukraine to be able to report
1:25:11
all of the damage so that they could
1:25:15
Take russia's money and use it for what
1:25:19
they call reparations But it's only a resolution
1:25:23
so By the un general assembly.
1:25:26
Those are not binding Only the un security
1:25:30
council could really authorize the seizure of this
1:25:36
money right That's why well, we'll get to
1:25:40
that in a second, but russia and china
1:25:43
They sit on this un security council and
1:25:45
have veto power so that's not going to
1:25:47
work so brussels Created its own regulation and
1:25:54
since euro clear is in brussels Forced euro
1:25:58
clear to comply To give the 9 million.
1:26:02
So just like we talked about last night
1:26:06
If you if the un doesn't like The
1:26:09
fact that russia and china can veto what
1:26:13
they've done They create a way to get
1:26:16
around it to west.
1:26:17
What do we do?
1:26:18
We recognize new countries or we recognize independence
1:26:23
And therefore kind of get around it like
1:26:26
the king that was appointed for uh, the
1:26:29
discussion last night my king's discussion and so
1:26:35
Brussels has created its own internal brussels only
1:26:39
rule And forced it upon euro clear which
1:26:42
is located there And so refusal of euro
1:26:46
clear to do what they say could mean
1:26:48
internal fines lost their own license Lawsuit, so
1:26:52
it's not really European law and it's not
1:26:56
it's definitely not un security council.
1:26:59
It's just Forcing one internal bank nationally do
1:27:03
the same thing so now Washington is trying
1:27:07
to go further bloomberg says That the treasury
1:27:11
is pressuring g7 to come up with a
1:27:13
plat pathway to take this money And so
1:27:19
far they haven't been able to do it
1:27:20
um Trump is saying, you know that we're
1:27:24
we're gonna hit very hard We're gonna do
1:27:26
sanctions and we're gonna take this all out
1:27:29
as leverage I'm, not sure what works all
1:27:33
i'm well I'm sure what not works what
1:27:37
doesn't work.
1:27:38
I mean nothing has worked so far Nothing
1:27:43
has come of any of these things 19
1:27:47
sanctions packages no decisive impact frozen assets Everybody's
1:27:54
calling it thefts incentives spfs and cips They're
1:27:59
accelerating the rules of life.
1:28:02
Everybody knows what they you know, they prove
1:28:04
stronger than sanctions Money finds a way don't
1:28:07
tell me.
1:28:08
No, i'll go around you the west is
1:28:10
risking permanent loss of credibility These sanctions might
1:28:15
be a short-term tool, but long-term
1:28:17
they fail um What are we going to
1:28:20
do?
1:28:21
You can't control what you can't restrain The
1:28:24
more west pushes the faster the exit accelerates
1:28:32
I think They just fail outright And there's
1:28:38
not much that anybody can do about that.
1:28:41
So This has been International flavor where the
1:28:48
truth just tastes better.
1:28:50
I'm, very glad you've been here Hope you
1:28:53
continue to join me nightly at 9 p
1:28:56
.m central standard time And you can listen
1:29:01
to the shows at your own convenience on
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1:29:14
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1:29:21
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1:29:25
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1:29:31
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1:29:34
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1:29:43
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1:29:47
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1:29:51
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1:29:56
Have a very good night