Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Kevin Warsh First Fed Meeting!🚨Rate Decision

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Kevin Warsh First Fed Meeting!🚨Rate Decision · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome in.
• 0:00
  Speaker 2: Today, we're going to be jumping into the FOMC meeting.
• 0:03
  Speaker 2: It is a new era at the FED and we're
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: gonna be breaking all that down for you guys as
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: we will be going live here with Kevin Walsh, who
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: is the new FED chair, and we'll get to all
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: that today and give you the update on where the
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: current FED funds rate is, but also what kind of
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: impact this might have on the market. So welcome into
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: the live show. I do want to thank our sponsor
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: and that's I Trust Capital. You guys can of course
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: jump into a CRYPTOIRA, very easy to set up. Just
• 0:30
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• 0:33
  Speaker 2: sell crypto over there as well as gold and silver
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: with your IRA, and the nice thing is is no
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: monthly fees.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Guys.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: You can also transfer from an existing IRA and build it,
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: get it into your portfolio, give you some diversification.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Use our link.
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: It's going to give you a little bit of a
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: funding reward to get started and get going on that.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: All right, so let's go in. Everybody wants to know
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: are we going to hold the rate? Right now?
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: It is a pause officially coming out of the FED.
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: They are leaving interest rates unchanged, so reminding at the
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: three point five to three seventy five range, So this
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: is somewhat good news for the market. Will show the
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: charts here in a minute as we get into what's
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: happening with the FED chair and their dialogue that they
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: have with the press. And if you're brand new to
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: our show and maybe you're new to FOMC meetings and
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: understanding what all this means. But what we will do
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: is we'll go live with Kevin Walsh CHAIRWASH and at
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: that time he usually addresses the press corps. Within those
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: conversations that the press corps will drop on him, we'll
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: get a lot of insights and hopefully those insights will
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: give us some direction as to potentially how this market
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: is going to play out.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: So we share Pale.
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: It took us a while to kind of understand his mannerisms,
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: but after about a year of seeing those FMC meetings,
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: you could start to pick things and see much of
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: his responses would give you some indication. And that's kind
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: of what we do, is do a little media analysis
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: for you guys on that. Other things that are having
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: some impact on this right now, of course, is the
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: deal with Iran Trump is at G seven France right
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: now and he's making statements out there. I don't want
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: to see an economic catastrophe. The stock market is doing great.
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: But he of course was very upset with neat Yahoo.
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: This of course came over from Axios, and his statement
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: was pretty straightforward. Why did Biebe have to do afing attack?
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: Trump was going out, he was so pissed off. I
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: let him know he's got no judgment and I'll let
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: him know that. And then the President told Axios the
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: deal with Iran would have already been signed had that
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: attack not occurred. Just timing was terrible from the Israelis
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: and it shook it up. He said it delayed signing
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: by a few hours.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: I don't know. We're still unsigned to our knowledge.
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: The key here, I think is maybe there's some indication
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: here with Rubyo in dvance that they've got something at
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: least close to a dotted line. And I think this
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: will be the biggest impact on where the markets are,
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: along with clarity, which we'll talk a little bit about today,
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: but it will give Warsh a little bit of a runway,
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: and I think that will be the question going forward. Now,
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: one thing you have to remember guys, is even though
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: we have the first crypto chair, if you think about it,
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: a FED chair, who's a dj in He's the first one.
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: But I think we also have somewhat of a crypto president,
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: and I'm often wondering if he's just forgot about the market.
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: It apparently is not the case, he says, I'm not
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: sure why crypto is not pumping, manipulated of course by China.
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: Now I want to go into a clip today just
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: as a reminder, we may take a few questions from
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: you guys today, So if you want to drop some
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: in the sidebarges, feel free to do that and we'll
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: get to those.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Let's go to a clip here, because.
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: This is Tom Lee that is talking about how war
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: could be addressing what's happening in the market.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: So take a look.
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: Overall, it's a positive development because, as you know, the
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: world is aware of a time running out in terms
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: of having that straight open and inventory is running out
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: for patroleum products. So I think the timing, of course
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: is welcome, and that's why we're seeing market's rally. And
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: what's more important is that the world economy is not
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: going to suffer from petroleum shortages.
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: Take down and geopolitical risk premium means as we see
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: crude oil fall, as we see treasure yields fall, what
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: it's going to mean for the setup for FOMC, given
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: the fact that many of the officials were leaning a
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: little more hawkish coming into this meeting. But of course
• 4:39
  Speaker 4: we got a new FED shair.
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: I mean, the market's going to test Kevin worsh on
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: his views this week. But I do think if he
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: was in the camp that we can treat it this
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: inflation surge driven by oil as transitory, I mean not
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: the best word, as temporary, and therefore he could lean dubvish.
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: I think there is going to be more room for
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: markets to interpret his statements that way. So I think
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: he's going to come into this week with tailwinds and
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: the possibility that his agenda could be something the market respects.
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: I think it's actually quite bullish for the FMC.
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: All right, So Tom Lee kind of indicating that he
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: thinks there's going to be some bullish forward looking statements
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: coming out of the FED chair, And some of the
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: things that you could look at is the pressure that
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: the market has been taking at least going into this Now,
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: remember that inflation continues to be a pressure point right
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: now that the FED has in terms of its dual mandate,
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: and that is what matters right now. You've got the
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: stock market right there erasing to under bill right there,
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: de risking possibly for an alternative to what Tom Lee
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: was talking about, and that might be a negative angle
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: from Morsh going forward. And if you remember that his
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: position has been mostly attacking the Fed's analysis more toward
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: productile and the way that he's talked about this in
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: recent interviews has been around the AI boom that we're
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: having across almost everything. So that will be a question
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: mark of how he sees that going forward, and I'm
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: going to be interested in catching whether or not the
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: Press Corps addresses that with him. In terms of productivity,
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: that that's basically where we work our way out of
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: this inflationary measure through productivity. If you look at the
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: S and P five hundred and the history of this,
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: it's fallen under every single new FED chair in their
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: first ninety days, So this would not be new if
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: we did see the S and P dive. Now, if
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: Tom Lee is right and it goes the other way,
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: that would be the first time that we've seen this
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: that can only come I think by a completely different
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: FED policy. And what I mean by that is we
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: have seen what the FED policy has been in the past,
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: which in most cases has been wait and see, look
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: at more data. It usually put things is behind the
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: eight ball, many people would say, just many times the
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: FED was too late. Whether you agree that or not,
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: point being is that was a strategy that Chair Pali
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: often use is more and more data. Now, of course,
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: maybe this FED chair is going to be looking at
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: more trends rather than the data coming in, which is
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: all you know, of course, not forward looking, but reverse
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: looking in terms of how that data comes in other
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: things to compare.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: Here is this right here?
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: And I think this is interesting. This came over from
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: Muhammad L. Rain, which you guys should follow him over
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: on x. He does a great job. He always breaks
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: down more complex issues. He's an expert in the area
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: of the FED itself. But the most interesting aspect of
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: today's outcomes will not be the rate decision, which now
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: we know is no change, where the universal expectation is
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: no change and it happened. Rather, it will be how
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: the committee characterizes the balance of risk to the FEDS
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: dual mandate. So that's what I'm talking about, is that
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: how does this committee because they have in addressing Chair
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: Powell as the FED governor, now he is one of them,
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: and this could get a little weird. I think I
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: would be amazing to be in that meeting. But we'll
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: see Worsh initiates what many, including himself, sees as a
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: long overdue revamp of the Central banks operational approaches, starting
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: with communications.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: So that is the point.
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: We may see a lot of new stuff coming out
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: of the Fed that we haven't seen before. So this
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: may be a historic FOMC meeting getting ready to ramp up.
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: I want to play a clip here because this is
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: Worsh and the test that he faces today.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Take a look and.
• 8:41
  Speaker 5: So he needs to lay out today who he is
• 8:45
  Speaker 5: and where he's coming from. But I think he'll be
• 8:48
  Speaker 5: more neutral. I don't think it would be wise to
• 8:52
  Speaker 5: come across as duvish today.
• 8:54
  Speaker 6: Communication style, how different do you expect it to be
• 8:58
  Speaker 6: from a Chair Powell.
• 9:01
  Speaker 5: Jay Powell is a good communicator. Kevin Worsh is a
• 9:04
  Speaker 5: good communicator. I think the difference will be Kevin has
• 9:08
  Speaker 5: felt and has said for some time he'd like to
• 9:11
  Speaker 5: see the FED doing less prognosticating. He wants to take
• 9:16
  Speaker 5: it meeting the meeting. He wants to have serious debates
• 9:19
  Speaker 5: within the meeting. But he's a little nervous about predictions.
• 9:24
  Speaker 5: But I think this structural capex boom, it's not a
• 9:29
  Speaker 5: consumer spending boom, it's a capex driven boom. I think
• 9:34
  Speaker 5: that's what the Fed's got to be watching and trying
• 9:37
  Speaker 5: to understand whether it's policies setting is appropriate in light
• 9:40
  Speaker 5: of that situation.
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: All right, So I just so that you guys know,
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: that's Rob Kaplan, a former Dallas FED chair, and these
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: are interesting times because this kind of narrative that he's
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: talking about there is that the cautious nature of the
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: FED has always been implemented in the past, and how
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: this plays into Warsh going forward, because remember, many people
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: look at this guy and have said before that he
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: is more of a hawkish position. Many people often wondered
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: why Trump selected him. This will be a very interesting
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: tell this meeting today. So big deal some of Kevin
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: Warsh's cryptotoken holdings. Of course, we've exposed several of those,
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: and he's been in many of them, including mostly all coins. Well,
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: I shouldn't say mostly, but the fact that he's even
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: holding all coins gives us a little bit of insights
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: to what we might see coming from him, not necessarily
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: on all coins, but in the sense of looking at
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: the market in a different way, because if you're an
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: all coin investor, you guys know this, You look at
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: the markets in a different way. You look at long
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: term fundamentals, what is potentially going to change on the
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: trends going forward, and if that is the angle in
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: which you know worsh is looking at, and you consider
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: what is happening right now with SpaceX and the AI boom,
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: maybe this will be a different front version of the
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: FED going forward. All coins are ripping right now while
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: Bitcoin is stalling around sixty five. This, of course is now,
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: as we know, a flat no rate change UNISWAP. Of course,
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: surged on standard charters one hundred price target. I don't
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: know if you guys saw that, but that was a
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: big deal. And even though I'm not a big, you know,
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: fan of a bank saying that you know, some of
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: these all coins are going to do well, the fact
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: that they just had it on the list intriguing to me,
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: but always interesting.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: We're a uniswamp.
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: We like UNI swap anyway, but often I wonder if
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: there's alternate, you know, motives for some of these banks.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: As you guys know, not a pro bank guy.
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: Let's get into this right here, because this is I
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: think something that you kind of have to look at
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: right here. Everyone knows what Warsh holds today. We already
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: know that real story. Worsh has been telegraphing the death
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: of forward guidance. This is my point that I'm getting
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: at this forward guidance by the Fed pre committing to
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: rate pass that it can't.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Actually deliver on.
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: If he is willing to do that, it would be
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: a major shift in FED policy. And the reason that
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: is so important is because with major shifts in FED
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: policy comes major market adjustments. And that includes traditional market
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: adjustments of what we'll see in the S and P.
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: Five hundred, but even more importantly to you guys, the
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: risk market adjustments that will come in on this, including
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: even metals. How we'll see things happening within the core
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: risk assets Bitcoin, eight, SALTA, xrp et cetera.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: All of those will.
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: Have a lot of very unique lock ins that I
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: think maybe will apply to what his new strategy is
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: that that's what I'm waiting for.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: So we'll see a lot of questions coming in.
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: We will try to answer some of these guys to
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: you today and we'll bring them up on screen for
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: you if we can get to it. Just so you know,
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: three minutes if he's on time. I'm assuming Power was
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: pretty on time like clockwork. If he's on time, because listen,
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: we're in a new era here with this guy. So
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: he may show up late and with a latte, who knows.
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: But the point is is that we will go live
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: at two point thirty, which is typically the time that
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: the Fed chair addresses the press, and hopefully these guys
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: are good enough to ask questions that will start to
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: break away from what Powell's questions were because we knew
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: a little bit of how Powell would answer certain things,
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: and then there was always that unspoken issue with Power
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: where he and Trump were always at each other's throats.
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: This is a little different, unless, of course, we start
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: see rate hikes or things of that nature. Granted, if
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: we do see a deal in Iran come through, then
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: we may be on a completely different track going forward.
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: Another point that has been mentioned, and this was interesting
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: to me is that fifty three percent of the governors
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: are talking about the possibility of people that are analyzing
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: this believe that the dot plot should be eliminated altogether.
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: So that would be very different. And I think it
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: was de Martino that was talking about this that maybe
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: we could even see that today if that.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: Were to happen again.
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: This goes back into the way that the FED analyzes
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: what data they have and then looks at decision making
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: on how to adjust to that data in the future.
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: That is something that the FED has never really done.
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: It's always looked at historical data that's coming in and
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: lagging versus now what this may do with maybe the
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: elimination of the dot plot. I don't know other things
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: that we'll get into today. The bond market, of course,
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: could see a summer rally. I want to play a
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: clip for you on that before we go live.
• 14:49
  Speaker 7: I think we are entering a summer of the bond market.
• 14:52
  Speaker 7: I think we probably have seen the high prints for rates.
• 14:54
  Speaker 7: Look oil prices even in the midst of like literally
• 14:58
  Speaker 7: a billion plus barrel of less production getting through the
• 15:01
  Speaker 7: straight UFOM mooves MAGI to stay contained, right, So like
• 15:05
  Speaker 7: this idea that you're going to see like a second
• 15:07
  Speaker 7: wave of higher oil prices. I don't buy that. We
• 15:09
  Speaker 7: don't buy that. We've been skeptical of the movie.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: All right, guys, it looks like the chair. Sorry to
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: cut that clip short.
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: Also, thanks, thanks for you guys who are dropping some
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: super chats in there.
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: We appreciate that.
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: On the lives we will be getting into this as
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: you can kind of see the press corps right there
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: awaiting Kevin Warsh's arrival. And guess what, guys, he's on time.
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: So here we go.
• 15:35
  Speaker 8: Good day. It's an honor, a true honor, to be
• 15:39
  Speaker 8: back at the Federal Reserve and to take up this
• 15:42
  Speaker 8: duty at a time of such consequence. I've been especially
• 15:48
  Speaker 8: heartened by the warm welcome of old friends and new
• 15:52
  Speaker 8: colleagues both. And I've listened closely to my fellow FMC
• 15:57
  Speaker 8: members for a lot of new ideas, new thinking, and
• 16:01
  Speaker 8: genuine interest in moving the FED forward. This week's FMC
• 16:07
  Speaker 8: meeting exemplified the very best of the fed's traditions. Rigorous debate,
• 16:13
  Speaker 8: open mindedness, commitment to mission responsibility, and accountability for performance
• 16:22
  Speaker 8: in this business. They all add up to one thing,
• 16:26
  Speaker 8: getting monetary policy right. Or as near to it as
• 16:31
  Speaker 8: we can do. That is our north star. My colleagues
• 16:36
  Speaker 8: and I are here to serve our legislative remit, which
• 16:40
  Speaker 8: you've heard us say before, price stability and maximum employment,
• 16:45
  Speaker 8: and these objectives guided our business in the meeting just concluded.
• 16:51
  Speaker 8: As you saw a few moments ago, the Committee decided
• 16:54
  Speaker 8: to maintain the target range for the FED Fund's rate
• 16:58
  Speaker 8: at three and a half to three and three quarters percent,
• 17:01
  Speaker 8: in support of the Fed's dual mandate. The Committee also
• 17:06
  Speaker 8: reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.
• 17:12
  Speaker 8: Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, despite elevated
• 17:17
  Speaker 8: uncertainty that owes in part to the conflict in the
• 17:20
  Speaker 8: Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment both strong job
• 17:28
  Speaker 8: gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment
• 17:31
  Speaker 8: rate has changed little. We recognize that inflation has been
• 17:36
  Speaker 8: running well ahead of the Fed's long stated inflation goal
• 17:40
  Speaker 8: of two percent. That's been going on for more than
• 17:43
  Speaker 8: five years. Persistently high prices are burden for the American people,
• 17:52
  Speaker 8: but the recent past need not be prologued. I am
• 17:56
  Speaker 8: pleased to report that members of the FOMC are unambiguous
• 18:02
  Speaker 8: and unanimous. This committee will deliver price stability at any institution.
• 18:11
  Speaker 8: A change in leadership is a natural and timely opportunity
• 18:16
  Speaker 8: to reaffirm its mission to review current practices and to
• 18:22
  Speaker 8: consider whether those practices best meet our objectives. My FED
• 18:27
  Speaker 8: colleagues and I will be working in close collaboration to
• 18:30
  Speaker 8: ask what changes might improve the conduct of monetary policy.
• 18:36
  Speaker 8: On that score, you might have already noticed something a
• 18:39
  Speaker 8: difference in today's policy statement. It's a bit shorter, a
• 18:44
  Speaker 8: bit simpler, and it dispenses with some older language. That
• 18:48
  Speaker 8: statement just gives you the facts as best we can
• 18:51
  Speaker 8: judge it. Absent also is so called forward guidance, which
• 18:56
  Speaker 8: we agreed was not well suited to the current policy
• 18:59
  Speaker 8: conject uncture. This afternoon, you also receive the usual summary
• 19:05
  Speaker 8: of economic projections. It's been the practice of this committee
• 19:10
  Speaker 8: for participants to submit these projections, and I have encouraged
• 19:14
  Speaker 8: my colleagues to continue to do so. I, however, refrained
• 19:18
  Speaker 8: from offering any projections of my own, consistent with my
• 19:22
  Speaker 8: long held views on the SEP. At least is currently
• 19:25
  Speaker 8: structured in the median projections. Real GDP rises at two
• 19:30
  Speaker 8: point two percent this year two point three percent next year,
• 19:35
  Speaker 8: and total PC inflation runs at three point six percent
• 19:39
  Speaker 8: this year two point three percent next year. The unemployment
• 19:43
  Speaker 8: rate stands at about four point three percent. The median
• 19:47
  Speaker 8: participant judges that the appropriate federal funds rate to be
• 19:51
  Speaker 8: at three point eight percent at the end of this
• 19:53
  Speaker 8: year and three point six at the end of next.
• 19:57
  Speaker 8: Let me turn now to a few words on a
• 19:59
  Speaker 8: key initiative that we're announcing today. I'm appointing a task
• 20:04
  Speaker 8: force in each of five areas that are central to
• 20:08
  Speaker 8: the broad conduct of monetary policy. First, FED communications, Second,
• 20:15
  Speaker 8: the fed's balance sheet, Third are use and reliance on
• 20:21
  Speaker 8: existing data sources, Fourth, productivity and jobs in an era
• 20:26
  Speaker 8: of transformation, and last the fed's inflation frameworks. These subjects
• 20:32
  Speaker 8: are timely, consequential, and in my view, worthy of a
• 20:37
  Speaker 8: fresh look. My colleagues and I discussed them with energy
• 20:41
  Speaker 8: and purpose over the last couple of days. For each
• 20:46
  Speaker 8: of these independent task forces, I'm enlisting some of the
• 20:49
  Speaker 8: very best minds, both inside and outside economics profession. They
• 20:55
  Speaker 8: will be supported by subject matter specialists from our superb
• 20:58
  Speaker 8: FED staff, and they'll have a straightforward charge. Start with
• 21:03
  Speaker 8: first principles, ask hard questions, examine current practice, consider alternatives,
• 21:12
  Speaker 8: and ultimately propose next steps for policymaker consideration. Since last summer,
• 21:18
  Speaker 8: my colleagues discuss possible improvements in the form and function
• 21:22
  Speaker 8: of FED communications. This new task force will build on
• 21:27
  Speaker 8: that effort, and I expect propose some well considered changes,
• 21:32
  Speaker 8: including to the SEP I mentioned a few moments ago.
• 21:36
  Speaker 8: The second task force, the one on balance Sheet Policy,
• 21:40
  Speaker 8: will review the benefits and risks of the current ample
• 21:43
  Speaker 8: reserves regime and the composition of the Fed's balance sheet.
• 21:48
  Speaker 8: They will assess alternative frameworks for the conduct and operation
• 21:52
  Speaker 8: of monetary policy. The third task force, the one on Data,
• 21:58
  Speaker 8: will evaluate new information and consider methodological changes to improve
• 22:04
  Speaker 8: data gathering with the aim of giving policymakers more accurate, relevant, contemporaneous,
• 22:12
  Speaker 8: and perhaps most important, actionable information on the state of
• 22:16
  Speaker 8: our economy. Fourth the Task Force on Productivity and Jobs.
• 22:21
  Speaker 8: It'll survey the pace, the reach, the economic impact of
• 22:26
  Speaker 8: new general purpose technologies, including AI, and explore the implications
• 22:32
  Speaker 8: for the PET for the FED in pursuit of our
• 22:35
  Speaker 8: employment and inflation mandates. The last task force, the one
• 22:40
  Speaker 8: on Inflation Frameworks, that'll examine the drivers of inflation first
• 22:45
  Speaker 8: principles and weigh the full range of ideas for delivering
• 22:49
  Speaker 8: price stability and a changing economy. You'll hear quite a
• 22:54
  Speaker 8: bit more about these task forces and this overall initiative
• 22:57
  Speaker 8: in the coming weeks, enough for now to make a
• 23:00
  Speaker 8: simple statement. Each task force will serve and objected shared
• 23:05
  Speaker 8: by everyone in the system, shared by everyone around that
• 23:08
  Speaker 8: table that I sat with over the last couple of days.
• 23:11
  Speaker 8: A federal reserve that is clearried about its mission, fit
• 23:15
  Speaker 8: for purpose, and focused on the future. And with that
• 23:19
  Speaker 8: I appreciate your attention. I'm happy to take your questions.
• 23:24
  Speaker 9: Power Shire, Hi, charin howard Shire Road. Is good to
• 23:29
  Speaker 9: see again and welcome back. This is a lot to
• 23:32
  Speaker 9: be putting in motion so fast. What is the timeline
• 23:36
  Speaker 9: you have in mind for each of these so?
• 23:40
  Speaker 8: I think it'll depend on the task force. It also
• 23:43
  Speaker 8: depends on the urgency in which we need clear answers.
• 23:47
  Speaker 8: My expectation, I'm still in the business of recruiting and
• 23:51
  Speaker 8: finalizing them. My expectation is the task forces will begin
• 23:55
  Speaker 8: work in the next couple of weeks and we'll start
• 23:58
  Speaker 8: to get some more information from them, some more framing
• 24:01
  Speaker 8: of how they see things. Starting in the fall end,
• 24:04
  Speaker 8: hopefully most if not all of them concluding by year end.
• 24:08
  Speaker 9: And just specifically on the inflation framework you talk about
• 24:12
  Speaker 9: first principles, Does this include a review of the two
• 24:16
  Speaker 9: percent target itself. You've mentioned that things to the rate
• 24:19
  Speaker 9: of the decimal point don't matter. Should this be starting
• 24:22
  Speaker 9: from a premise that two percent as a point estimate
• 24:26
  Speaker 9: is too strict?
• 24:28
  Speaker 8: Let me break that into two pieces. First, on the
• 24:30
  Speaker 8: inflation framework review, their remit is what are the drivers
• 24:36
  Speaker 8: of inflation? What's the FED responsibility for inflation? In part
• 24:40
  Speaker 8: how do we measure inflation? But that'll overlap with my
• 24:43
  Speaker 8: data group on the two percent inflation objective, that is
• 24:48
  Speaker 8: the Federal Reserve's long held objective of two percent. You've
• 24:52
  Speaker 8: heard me say before, I tend to focus on the
• 24:55
  Speaker 8: left of the decimal point. Well, the two is the
• 24:57
  Speaker 8: left of the decimal point. For now zero is to
• 24:59
  Speaker 8: the right. I see no reason until we have re
• 25:03
  Speaker 8: established our commitment and ability to deliver on the two
• 25:07
  Speaker 8: percent inflation objective to revisit that. So that'll be outside
• 25:10
  Speaker 8: the scope of what we're taking on. Colby.
• 25:17
  Speaker 6: Thank you so much. Colby swith in the New York Times,
• 25:19
  Speaker 6: even the past said that inflation is a choice, and
• 25:22
  Speaker 6: in the policy statement it includes this pledge to deliver
• 25:25
  Speaker 6: price stability, as you've reiterated today. But looking at the SEP,
• 25:28
  Speaker 6: the bulk of your colleagues expect core PC to run
• 25:31
  Speaker 6: around three point three percent by your end and for
• 25:34
  Speaker 6: the two percent inflation target not to be reached until
• 25:37
  Speaker 6: twenty twenty eight. So I'm curious how patient you think
• 25:40
  Speaker 6: the FED can afford to be at this juncture in
• 25:43
  Speaker 6: terms of waiting for one time inflation waves to wash
• 25:47
  Speaker 6: through and for lying inflation to step down after so
• 25:50
  Speaker 6: many years of inflation running above target. And under what
• 25:54
  Speaker 6: circumstances you would support the FED taking some action and
• 25:58
  Speaker 6: raising rates.
• 25:58
  Speaker 8: Sure, so quite a bit there. Let me try to
• 26:01
  Speaker 8: break that into pieces. First, we have the capability and
• 26:06
  Speaker 8: commitment to deliver on our price stability objective of two percent.
• 26:10
  Speaker 8: That's exactly what we're going to do. In the fed's
• 26:15
  Speaker 8: review of its strategy over the last any number of
• 26:17
  Speaker 8: years in January, the FED including the strategy that we're
• 26:21
  Speaker 8: still bound by. The FED statement says that infilation is
• 26:25
  Speaker 8: primarily determined by monetary policy. You bet it is. I've
• 26:29
  Speaker 8: said for years inflations is a choice. You bet it is,
• 26:34
  Speaker 8: And today I'm announcing that this committee unambiguously and unanimously
• 26:38
  Speaker 8: have decided we are going to deliver on that. The
• 26:41
  Speaker 8: rest of your questions sounded like an encouragement for me
• 26:44
  Speaker 8: to give forward guidance. We've dropped forward guidance some along
• 26:49
  Speaker 8: the committee. I think dropped it. I suspect from our
• 26:52
  Speaker 8: discussion the last couple of days because they said, at
• 26:54
  Speaker 8: this moment in time, it doesn't feel as though providing
• 26:58
  Speaker 8: forward guidance is right. Others have i'd say, different views
• 27:02
  Speaker 8: and think as a general proposition, forward guidance isn't the
• 27:05
  Speaker 8: business we should be in. But that'll be taken up
• 27:08
  Speaker 8: by the Task Force on Communications and my policy maker colleagues.
• 27:13
  Speaker 8: We're going to listen hard to what the experts say
• 27:15
  Speaker 8: and make our own decision. But I can't give any
• 27:18
  Speaker 8: forward guidance about what we're going to do next. The
• 27:20
  Speaker 8: good news is we'll be meeting in six weeks, so.
• 27:24
  Speaker 6: Just following up. I guess on the current policy settings,
• 27:26
  Speaker 6: then I am curious how restrictive you think things are
• 27:30
  Speaker 6: at the current moment, given the flow of data that
• 27:33
  Speaker 6: we've seen and forecasts that are coming down the pipeline.
• 27:37
  Speaker 8: Yeah, I've heard characterizations both inside and the FAT about that.
• 27:41
  Speaker 8: I'll give you my own. It's uneven. If I look
• 27:45
  Speaker 8: at the housing markets as one example, FED policy isn't
• 27:50
  Speaker 8: the single determinant of the state of a housing market,
• 27:53
  Speaker 8: but broadly, I would say there, FED policy appears to
• 27:56
  Speaker 8: be somewhat restrictive. I would have a hard time managing
• 28:02
  Speaker 8: to say those words if I were to see what's
• 28:04
  Speaker 8: happening in financial markets, so I'd say it's uneven. That's
• 28:08
  Speaker 8: perhaps a function of different transmission mechanisms of monetary policy,
• 28:12
  Speaker 8: whether monetary policy is coming from our interest grate tool
• 28:16
  Speaker 8: or a balance sheet tool. But the good news we
• 28:18
  Speaker 8: have a task force on that too, and the balance
• 28:20
  Speaker 8: shee task course will be looking more at that subject.
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: Why making.
• 28:26
  Speaker 10: You said you don't like forward guidance. You dropped it
• 28:29
  Speaker 10: from the statement this time, But with the dot plot,
• 28:32
  Speaker 10: nine members suggested that they want a rate increase by
• 28:36
  Speaker 10: the end of the year, and the markets have taken
• 28:38
  Speaker 10: that as forward guidance. So what does this mean in
• 28:41
  Speaker 10: terms of how you guide the markets and in terms
• 28:46
  Speaker 10: of what the dot plot's future is.
• 28:52
  Speaker 8: I'm going to have to give you the same answer
• 28:53
  Speaker 8: I gave to MS Smith. We've got a task force
• 28:56
  Speaker 8: for that. I'll give you a little bit more. I
• 29:01
  Speaker 8: reviewed the DOT plots, and when I saw the submissions,
• 29:05
  Speaker 8: I noted that all the submissions were coming in with pencils,
• 29:08
  Speaker 8: you know, those kinds with the big erasers. That's to
• 29:12
  Speaker 8: say that I think my colleagues around the table when
• 29:15
  Speaker 8: they submitted their dots understand the world is changing quite quickly,
• 29:19
  Speaker 8: and they didn't feel bound by them six weeks from
• 29:22
  Speaker 8: now or six days from now, and in the event
• 29:24
  Speaker 8: that their circumstances change. I'll note a couple other things.
• 29:28
  Speaker 8: What I heard around the table was as they submitted
• 29:32
  Speaker 8: their modal forecasts, their modial forecasts, to be clear, weren't
• 29:36
  Speaker 8: This was more likely than not, This was more likely
• 29:41
  Speaker 8: than their other scenarios. So I didn't hear tons of conviction.
• 29:46
  Speaker 8: What I heard was the kind of humility that I
• 29:48
  Speaker 8: think we should have. I did not submit a DOT
• 29:53
  Speaker 8: for me. It's not helpful in the conduct of policy.
• 29:56
  Speaker 8: I suspect by year end, as I mentioned in my
• 29:59
  Speaker 8: opening statements, there'll be a review about communications broadly, press conferences, DOTS,
• 30:08
  Speaker 8: meetings and the like. Transcripts, minutes, this will be part
• 30:12
  Speaker 8: of that. I don't want to prejudge the outcomes there,
• 30:15
  Speaker 8: but I'm pretty open minded about what they could be.
• 30:19
  Speaker 8: And I was just incredibly impressed over the last couple
• 30:22
  Speaker 8: of days, my colleagues, over the last two days, and
• 30:24
  Speaker 8: frankly the first three weeks I've been here, They've been
• 30:27
  Speaker 8: very open about changes. Changes an't easy, changes filled with risk,
• 30:33
  Speaker 8: but our number one goal is to get monetary policy right.
• 30:37
  Speaker 8: The way to get monetary policy right is to deliver
• 30:39
  Speaker 8: on the remit that Congress gave us to deliver on
• 30:42
  Speaker 8: price stability, and there was no disagreement on any of
• 30:45
  Speaker 8: those points.
• 30:46
  Speaker 10: At the risk of possibly getting the same answer about
• 30:50
  Speaker 10: task forces communications, what is your feeling about these news conferences?
• 30:55
  Speaker 10: Are you going to continue one after every meeting?
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: Do you think find them useful?
• 31:01
  Speaker 10: What it's the future for the way Kevin worsh will communicate.
• 31:05
  Speaker 8: Well, this one's probably got another fifteen or twenty minutes
• 31:08
  Speaker 8: in it, so I don't want to prejudge the outcome.
• 31:12
  Speaker 8: Press conferences can be a very useful way to communicate
• 31:17
  Speaker 8: with households, businesses, and more broadly through using the likes
• 31:20
  Speaker 8: of you. I had a great old mentor named George Schultz,
• 31:24
  Speaker 8: and his mantra was press conference are useful, but when
• 31:28
  Speaker 8: you have one, you want to make sure you have
• 31:30
  Speaker 8: something important to say.
• 31:31
  Speaker 11: Today.
• 31:32
  Speaker 8: I think we had something important to say about our
• 31:34
  Speaker 8: commitment to deliver on price stability, our commitment to rethink
• 31:39
  Speaker 8: practices with an eye of moving the FED forward, and
• 31:42
  Speaker 8: to give you and the American people a sense that
• 31:44
  Speaker 8: these aren't idle thoughts. These are concrete thoughts that we're
• 31:47
  Speaker 8: going to seek out the best minds, both the best
• 31:51
  Speaker 8: thinking inside of the Federal Reserve and the best people
• 31:54
  Speaker 8: I know in business and economics and the academy and
• 31:57
  Speaker 8: technology and the rest to share their views. That's what
• 32:00
  Speaker 8: we're going to be doing here, the pursuit of truth.
• 32:03
  Speaker 8: I think we're going to come up with some new
• 32:05
  Speaker 8: and interesting things. We made some changes today. I expect
• 32:08
  Speaker 8: more changes to come, and some of those might well
• 32:12
  Speaker 8: be worthy of a press conference. Christ favor.
• 32:18
  Speaker 12: Hi Chris Rugaber had assistated best. Thanks for taking our questions.
• 32:23
  Speaker 12: Could you give some sense of how you see inflation
• 32:26
  Speaker 12: more in the long term. I know you may not
• 32:28
  Speaker 12: want to comment on the ups and downs, but is
• 32:30
  Speaker 12: this mainly driven by energy prices? In the Iran war
• 32:33
  Speaker 12: at this point, or do you have any concerns about
• 32:35
  Speaker 12: underlying inflation pressures in the economy.
• 32:38
  Speaker 8: Thank you, So, I can't do much better than the
• 32:42
  Speaker 8: Committee just did, so let me restate it. Inflation remains
• 32:46
  Speaker 8: elevated relatively Committee's two percent goal, in part reflecting supply
• 32:50
  Speaker 8: shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy.
• 32:55
  Speaker 8: That's the paragraph goes on to say. But to be clear,
• 32:58
  Speaker 8: the Federal deliver price stability. My own judgment is the
• 33:02
  Speaker 8: Committee spent quite a bit of time, not just in
• 33:05
  Speaker 8: two days, but over iterations of a couple of weeks.
• 33:08
  Speaker 8: That's what we're prepared to say about inflation. But the
• 33:11
  Speaker 8: commitment to deliver is strong, unanimous, and unambiguous, and that's
• 33:17
  Speaker 8: I think an important message we've missed for five years,
• 33:20
  Speaker 8: and we're going to fix that.
• 33:22
  Speaker 5: Well.
• 33:23
  Speaker 12: Great, And then just on your the data task force
• 33:26
  Speaker 12: and everything else. I mean, generally speaking, I think people
• 33:29
  Speaker 12: feel the field the FED looks at everything already. Certainly
• 33:32
  Speaker 12: that was the sense from before. What is there data
• 33:37
  Speaker 12: that you feel is not given enough weight? I mean,
• 33:39
  Speaker 12: you mentioned the trim demean in the past, but again
• 33:41
  Speaker 12: that's well known to certainly most FED members. So what
• 33:44
  Speaker 12: is that task force looking at and what might be
• 33:47
  Speaker 12: the I mean, I know you don't want to prejudge
• 33:49
  Speaker 12: the outcome, but are there examples of data that you
• 33:52
  Speaker 12: expect might be given more weight?
• 33:54
  Speaker 8: Thank you, So you're answering my question. So let me
• 33:58
  Speaker 8: say I don't want to prejudge the outcome. I also
• 34:00
  Speaker 8: don't want to say too much about what they're going
• 34:02
  Speaker 8: to do, because I still have a phone call or
• 34:03
  Speaker 8: two to make before I've nailed down the people that
• 34:06
  Speaker 8: are doing that. I'm interested with the outside experts view
• 34:10
  Speaker 8: is on the subject. I'll say this, generally, most of
• 34:15
  Speaker 8: the data that central bankers and other government officials in
• 34:19
  Speaker 8: the United States consume come with old fashioned survey methods,
• 34:26
  Speaker 8: a national accounts of what the US economy looks like
• 34:30
  Speaker 8: that looks very little like the US economy in twenty
• 34:32
  Speaker 8: twenty six, survey methods that don't have response rates that
• 34:37
  Speaker 8: we need, asking questions that might have been quite applicable
• 34:40
  Speaker 8: a generation to go that are less applicable now. So
• 34:44
  Speaker 8: even inside of official statistics, I would be open minded
• 34:48
  Speaker 8: if the task Force and our own best thinking had
• 34:51
  Speaker 8: recommendations how those official statistics can be brought up to
• 34:55
  Speaker 8: a standard of our time using new analytic methods. Say this,
• 35:01
  Speaker 8: almost every private company CEO that's running his or her
• 35:05
  Speaker 8: business are doing so with real time information that isn't
• 35:09
  Speaker 8: subject to much revision, that is telling them what just
• 35:13
  Speaker 8: happened at that very moment. As you know, there are normal,
• 35:17
  Speaker 8: long and variable lags in the conduct of monetary policy.
• 35:20
  Speaker 8: What we're really interested in is what's happening right now.
• 35:25
  Speaker 8: What we're less interested in is echoes of history. And
• 35:28
  Speaker 8: you're hearing from my answer that some of the data
• 35:31
  Speaker 8: that we receive that we're waiting on the first Friday
• 35:35
  Speaker 8: after the month of payroll index or something else that
• 35:38
  Speaker 8: might be an echo of history. That's quite useful on
• 35:41
  Speaker 8: its third revision. We need to take those error bounds
• 35:44
  Speaker 8: down because we have to make hard decisions in real time.
• 35:48
  Speaker 8: I'm really open minded that there is a lot of
• 35:51
  Speaker 8: new data sources that we can learn from the private sector,
• 35:55
  Speaker 8: from reforms in the official sector, and new analytic techniques
• 36:00
  Speaker 8: that are far more refined than asking a simple question
• 36:03
  Speaker 8: about whether something was core or non core.
• 36:07
  Speaker 10: Edward.
• 36:09
  Speaker 13: Thanks welcome, mister chairman Ever Lawrence with Fox Business. So
• 36:12
  Speaker 13: if you don't give a lot of ongoing forward guidance.
• 36:16
  Speaker 13: Want of the markets have more volatility, and shouldn't Americans
• 36:19
  Speaker 13: have more access into what you're thinking going forward?
• 36:24
  Speaker 8: So I think financial markets perform best when they react
• 36:30
  Speaker 8: to incoming data. I think the financial markets work less
• 36:35
  Speaker 8: efficiently when they ask a question, how will the Federal
• 36:38
  Speaker 8: Reserve react to that incoming information. The more that markets
• 36:43
  Speaker 8: are paying attention to what's happening in the real economy,
• 36:47
  Speaker 8: deciding what's good data and what's less good data, the
• 36:51
  Speaker 8: more financial markets can price what they believe is the
• 36:54
  Speaker 8: most likely and what are the tail risks. Financial market
• 36:58
  Speaker 8: prices the most important source of information to guide central bankers.
• 37:05
  Speaker 8: But when all the financial markets are doing is reflecting
• 37:08
  Speaker 8: back what we've said, then we're taking the most important
• 37:12
  Speaker 8: source of information and we're being blind to it. I'd
• 37:15
  Speaker 8: like us to create a system where those blinders come off,
• 37:18
  Speaker 8: where markets are following data that they efficiently think is reliable,
• 37:23
  Speaker 8: and they'll be watching data, We'll be watching data. They'll
• 37:26
  Speaker 8: come with better information through market prices to us, we
• 37:30
  Speaker 8: can make more informed decisions with Ultimately, the goal that
• 37:33
  Speaker 8: I set at the outsite, deliver on the price stability
• 37:36
  Speaker 8: objective that Congress told us to do, and that we've
• 37:39
  Speaker 8: got to get in the business of doing.
• 37:40
  Speaker 13: Yeah, if I could take you in the meeting a
• 37:42
  Speaker 13: little bit to your first meeting, that the board members
• 37:45
  Speaker 13: seem fairly hawkish when you listen to in general, when
• 37:48
  Speaker 13: you listen to what they're saying. Was there any discussion
• 37:50
  Speaker 13: of a rate cut going forward today?
• 37:54
  Speaker 8: There was one proposal on the table. There was no
• 37:58
  Speaker 8: discussion of any other proposals. The discussion on that proposal,
• 38:02
  Speaker 8: I would say, was quite limited. The group was unanimous
• 38:06
  Speaker 8: and unambiguous on it. It has been the practice of
• 38:10
  Speaker 8: this Central Bank and others to have a range of alternatives.
• 38:16
  Speaker 8: Today we had one. I thought it. Further discussion deepened
• 38:20
  Speaker 8: it and made it clear what we needed to do
• 38:24
  Speaker 8: and how we needed to deliver. I wouldn't prejudge what
• 38:27
  Speaker 8: happens in the future, but there was only one big
• 38:30
  Speaker 8: subject for us. We took it on, We had a
• 38:33
  Speaker 8: good family fight on it for a couple of days,
• 38:35
  Speaker 8: and we ended up I think in a better place.
• 38:38
  Speaker 14: Claire, thanks to Lord Claire Jones Financial Times. You know,
• 38:45
  Speaker 14: come into this blind reading this very nice short statement
• 38:48
  Speaker 14: that I think we've all appreciated in the room. One
• 38:52
  Speaker 14: might wonder why you didn't raise rates today, considering what
• 38:57
  Speaker 14: you're saying here, the risks to us inflation and your mandate.
• 39:06
  Speaker 14: I guess why not? And what would you need to
• 39:08
  Speaker 14: see in order to get to that place? And secondly,
• 39:12
  Speaker 14: on your task forces, are there any best practices of
• 39:16
  Speaker 14: the central banks that you'd consider looking at?
• 39:19
  Speaker 8: Thank you? Yeah, I'm glad they're in the practice of
• 39:21
  Speaker 8: giving you two questions, because my answer to your first
• 39:23
  Speaker 8: question was going to be very curt I've got nothing
• 39:25
  Speaker 8: more to say than the statement itself, and to the
• 39:28
  Speaker 8: point of the question I got before. Market reactions to
• 39:32
  Speaker 8: what we say unfiltered, I think is more helpful than
• 39:35
  Speaker 8: having delivered a statement me than improvising further upon it.
• 39:39
  Speaker 8: Best practices of task forces, this is a subject I've
• 39:43
  Speaker 8: thought some about. I've been on a task force or
• 39:45
  Speaker 8: two in my life. Best practice, find the best minds.
• 39:51
  Speaker 8: Ensure that the task forces have a range of people
• 39:55
  Speaker 8: both by backgrounds and predispositions, so they too can have
• 40:00
  Speaker 8: a bit of a family fight. Make sure when you
• 40:04
  Speaker 8: establish a task force that the group that's going to
• 40:06
  Speaker 8: be the recipient of the information feels as they've got
• 40:09
  Speaker 8: some equities in it too. That's why we're looking for
• 40:13
  Speaker 8: haven't done the final role call some of the most
• 40:16
  Speaker 8: significant talent we have in the building and across the
• 40:18
  Speaker 8: Reserve banks on each of these and in some sense
• 40:21
  Speaker 8: seconding them to this group for a period of some
• 40:24
  Speaker 8: number of months, so that the leaders of the task
• 40:28
  Speaker 8: force know what the most analytical central bank in the
• 40:33
  Speaker 8: world thinks about that they can reflect on it in
• 40:36
  Speaker 8: a final best practice. We're not outsourcing decisions to anybody.
• 40:42
  Speaker 8: Administrations past and president. Reserve Banks have chosen a group
• 40:46
  Speaker 8: of nineteen people around the table. These will be our decisions.
• 40:49
  Speaker 8: We can agree to some of the recommendations, disagree with others,
• 40:53
  Speaker 8: have a good family fight about it. But what comes
• 40:56
  Speaker 8: from them will I hope and believe, make the discussion
• 40:59
  Speaker 8: we have internally better, stronger, more of a dialectic so
• 41:04
  Speaker 8: that we can finally deliver on that price stability objective.
• 41:08
  Speaker 14: Just a quick follow up on your markets point. If
• 41:11
  Speaker 14: you look at two year yields, they're really suggesting that
• 41:13
  Speaker 14: markets think more tightening is needed. Would that be your
• 41:17
  Speaker 14: read on what the two year yield is saying?
• 41:19
  Speaker 8: As well? We were in such a good place. This
• 41:21
  Speaker 8: is why we don't do third questions. I presume I'm
• 41:24
  Speaker 8: not going to offer any commentary on market reaction over
• 41:27
  Speaker 8: the last thirty or sixty minutes. What we've given markets
• 41:32
  Speaker 8: is a new chapter for the Central Bank, some fresh thinking.
• 41:37
  Speaker 8: What we've given markets and households and businesses, I think
• 41:40
  Speaker 8: is a commitment to ask ourselves hard questions such that
• 41:46
  Speaker 8: we can deliver on the promises that we've made before.
• 41:50
  Speaker 8: This is a lot of change for financial markets to digest.
• 41:55
  Speaker 8: I wouldn't be particularly intrigued by how they react in
• 41:58
  Speaker 8: the first several minutes or even first several days.
• 42:01
  Speaker 6: Well.
• 42:02
  Speaker 8: I think's most important is that financial markets, and at
• 42:05
  Speaker 8: least is important households and businesses know that this central
• 42:09
  Speaker 8: bank will deliver on price stability.
• 42:13
  Speaker 15: Right. I remember Worship Brian Hung with NBC News, thank
• 42:17
  Speaker 15: you for taking our questions. So when you say that
• 42:19
  Speaker 15: we've dropped forward guidance for the layperson, that might sound
• 42:22
  Speaker 15: like the Fed's going to say less or offer less
• 42:24
  Speaker 15: insight into where their borrowing costs might go. So for
• 42:28
  Speaker 15: the person that maybe you might run into at the
• 42:29
  Speaker 15: grocery store where the price tags are rising at a
• 42:32
  Speaker 15: faster pace than their wages at the moment, how would
• 42:35
  Speaker 15: you explain it to them? I don't know if task
• 42:36
  Speaker 15: force might be answered there, but how would you kind
• 42:38
  Speaker 15: of communicate this era this chapter of the FED.
• 42:41
  Speaker 8: If I told somebody in the milk aisle that I
• 42:44
  Speaker 8: had a task force for that, I think that would
• 42:46
  Speaker 8: be doing a very poor job. So I appreciate it.
• 42:50
  Speaker 8: If I saw somebody in the grocery store, what I
• 42:52
  Speaker 8: would say to them is that we cannot have a
• 42:56
  Speaker 8: very significant effect on particular prices, the price of oil
• 43:01
  Speaker 8: in the markets today, or even the price of a
• 43:04
  Speaker 8: dozen eggs. That does not have first order consequences to
• 43:08
  Speaker 8: what we're doing. But we do have a really important
• 43:10
  Speaker 8: job there, and it's to make sure that those changes
• 43:13
  Speaker 8: in oil or beef for eggs or milk don't broaden
• 43:17
  Speaker 8: the economy, don't have second and third or effects. That's
• 43:21
  Speaker 8: our job, that's our commitment, that's our capability. We're going
• 43:24
  Speaker 8: to deliver on it.
• 43:25
  Speaker 15: And then is the FED relationship with the Treasury also
• 43:29
  Speaker 15: under review? There was the normal breakfast meetings with the
• 43:32
  Speaker 15: Treasury secretary. Is that something you intend to continue doing?
• 43:35
  Speaker 15: And have you had conversations with the president since you're
• 43:37
  Speaker 15: swearing it.
• 43:38
  Speaker 8: So on the President I don't have anything for you
• 43:42
  Speaker 8: with respect to the Treasury Secretary. He has been posting
• 43:45
  Speaker 8: pictures of our breakfast, so I don't think I can.
• 43:48
  Speaker 8: I don't think I can and deny that. The long
• 43:50
  Speaker 8: tradition at the Central Bank is that the Fed Chairman
• 43:53
  Speaker 8: and the treasure Secretary meet weekly. I think we've pulled
• 43:56
  Speaker 8: off three of those so far. I believe he's overseas
• 43:59
  Speaker 8: this week, so this will be the exception of the rule.
• 44:02
  Speaker 8: I think they're very useful discussions. The Central banks objectives
• 44:09
  Speaker 8: and our roles and responsibilities are quite delineated from the
• 44:12
  Speaker 8: fiscal authorities, and in my view, monetary policy is independent
• 44:17
  Speaker 8: in the conduct of what we do. But that doesn't
• 44:19
  Speaker 8: mean we're not interested in what's happening with the fiscal authorities.
• 44:23
  Speaker 8: The way I think about it is this Central Bank
• 44:25
  Speaker 8: needs to have a wide lens, but a narrow remit.
• 44:30
  Speaker 8: We need to be quite interested what's happening in the world.
• 44:34
  Speaker 8: I won't be breaking any news here to suggest I'm
• 44:37
  Speaker 8: quite interested what's happening in the Middle East that does
• 44:40
  Speaker 8: have some effect on our day job. That doesn't mean
• 44:44
  Speaker 8: it's our responsibility, but I think we're going to keep
• 44:46
  Speaker 8: a wide lens, and my meetings with Secretary Best and
• 44:49
  Speaker 8: to this point have helped widen that aperture. So we're
• 44:52
  Speaker 8: aware of things that could affect our day job, even
• 44:55
  Speaker 8: if it isn't.
• 44:57
  Speaker 16: See Steve lee'sman CNBC. Mister chair, thank you this chairman,
• 45:02
  Speaker 16: thank you for taking my question. You had said in
• 45:06
  Speaker 16: the before you became chairman that you thought productivity was
• 45:12
  Speaker 16: a reason why the Federal Reserve could lower interest rates.
• 45:16
  Speaker 16: Do you still believe that to be the case.
• 45:18
  Speaker 8: So the committee had a discussion of productivity today. AI
• 45:24
  Speaker 8: came up. The way I thought about it before and
• 45:28
  Speaker 8: socialized with the group, is that artificial intelligence, the latest
• 45:33
  Speaker 8: generation of general purpose technology, is perhaps as important a
• 45:39
  Speaker 8: change in the economy and business and households that we've
• 45:42
  Speaker 8: had in my adult lifetime. It is filled with both
• 45:46
  Speaker 8: a huge opportunity and with risks. I take both of
• 45:50
  Speaker 8: those very seriously. You may have heard me say before
• 45:54
  Speaker 8: that AI is shorthand preps for American ingenuity. Doesn't mean
• 46:00
  Speaker 8: that it's going to be easy. That certainly doesn't mean
• 46:02
  Speaker 8: it's not going to be disruptive. But over the long term,
• 46:06
  Speaker 8: my conviction and I heard quite a bit of support
• 46:09
  Speaker 8: for this around the committee today, the United States is
• 46:12
  Speaker 8: a winner. As we go down this, the United States
• 46:15
  Speaker 8: is ultimately going to be better off in that. Now,
• 46:19
  Speaker 8: to bring that back to the conduct of policy, timing, scale, speed,
• 46:25
  Speaker 8: implications for output and employment. It's one of the things
• 46:29
  Speaker 8: we have a task force to do.
• 46:31
  Speaker 16: If you don't mind a follow up from the other side,
• 46:34
  Speaker 16: which is that when you look at the strong job
• 46:36
  Speaker 16: growth that's out there, the elevated inflation GDP seems to
• 46:39
  Speaker 16: be going pretty good, and the stock market seems to
• 46:42
  Speaker 16: be soaring, do you look around this economy and see
• 46:45
  Speaker 16: the funds rate being restrictive.
• 46:47
  Speaker 8: So that's your second question. I'm going to give the
• 46:51
  Speaker 8: same answer that I gave before. I'd say, as I
• 46:53
  Speaker 8: think about the conduct of policy, what matters is what's
• 46:57
  Speaker 8: the effect of policy? Not what do we say, but
• 46:59
  Speaker 8: what happened, And the best way I can describe is done.
• 47:02
  Speaker 8: Even I do see some restrictedness in things like housing,
• 47:05
  Speaker 8: it's hard to use those same words anywhere else. We'll
• 47:09
  Speaker 8: just make one other point. You talked about one of
• 47:13
  Speaker 8: our dual mandates and the employment side. I don't believe
• 47:18
  Speaker 8: that we have a cruel choice. I don't share the
• 47:21
  Speaker 8: view that was expressed a few generations ago that Federal
• 47:26
  Speaker 8: Reserve chairmen show up at a podium like this and say,
• 47:29
  Speaker 8: you got to choose, and you're going to have to
• 47:33
  Speaker 8: decide whether you're willing to tolerate higher inflation to put
• 47:37
  Speaker 8: more people at work. I don't believe in that. What
• 47:40
  Speaker 8: I believe is, if we do our job, we can
• 47:44
  Speaker 8: make strong growth, low prices, and strong employment mutually compatible.
• 47:52
  Speaker 8: And so what you heard from the committee today is
• 47:54
  Speaker 8: we've got some work to do on the price stability front.
• 48:01
  Speaker 11: Thank you.
• 48:01
  Speaker 17: Nick Timros with the Wall Street Journal, Chiman Warsh, You've
• 48:04
  Speaker 17: said repeatedly credibility is earned by delivering. If credibility requires delivering,
• 48:10
  Speaker 17: the move would be to tighten, or at least to
• 48:12
  Speaker 17: threaten to Now you didn't do that today.
• 48:14
  Speaker 11: Why not.
• 48:18
  Speaker 8: That judgment you expressed was not expressed by any of
• 48:20
  Speaker 8: the nineteen people around the table. We'll be meeting in
• 48:24
  Speaker 8: six weeks. We'll take up the issue again.
• 48:27
  Speaker 17: And if I could ask about AI. The buildout is
• 48:29
  Speaker 17: generating enormous demand right now cap x Data Center's power.
• 48:34
  Speaker 17: The productivity payoff may be further out. So in your
• 48:37
  Speaker 17: judgment today, is AI adding more to demand or to supply.
• 48:41
  Speaker 8: It's a good question. At the Central Bank, in an
• 48:46
  Speaker 8: economics profession, what we spend most of our time doing
• 48:50
  Speaker 8: is counting demand. It's easier. We can see it, we
• 48:54
  Speaker 8: can count it, we can check it, we can revise it.
• 48:58
  Speaker 8: What we do, though, is we in first You'll notice
• 49:02
  Speaker 8: in the second paragraph of what one of your colleagues
• 49:05
  Speaker 8: described as a very short statement, we have a sentence
• 49:10
  Speaker 8: on the demand side and a sentence about the same
• 49:13
  Speaker 8: length on the supply side. They're both important. Just because
• 49:17
  Speaker 8: we can count one better than the other doesn't mean
• 49:19
  Speaker 8: we're going to favor one more than the other. With
• 49:22
  Speaker 8: respect to AI and the growth of data centers and
• 49:25
  Speaker 8: infrastructure around it, we're counting the demand side, and it
• 49:29
  Speaker 8: is no doubt showing up in GDP figures. We can
• 49:33
  Speaker 8: be less certain when we infer the timing and extent
• 49:37
  Speaker 8: of the growth and the supply side. It may well
• 49:40
  Speaker 8: be an intuition the supply side is going to expand,
• 49:42
  Speaker 8: but it will take longer. I just describe it this way.
• 49:45
  Speaker 8: There's a race between supply and demand. Milton Friedman says
• 49:49
  Speaker 8: that the only thing we know about economics is that
• 49:51
  Speaker 8: there's a supply line and demand line they ultimately cross
• 49:54
  Speaker 8: when they cross, and what are the implications for policy.
• 49:57
  Speaker 8: The good news for you is we have a task
• 49:59
  Speaker 8: for for that.
• 50:02
  Speaker 11: Andrew, thanks Michter, Chairman.
• 50:07
  Speaker 18: It sounded like on the Task Force on Data that
• 50:10
  Speaker 18: you were looking at overhauling or completely overhauling the system
• 50:14
  Speaker 18: of national accounts the way the government minds the economy
• 50:17
  Speaker 18: is that your ambition.
• 50:20
  Speaker 8: In a word, no, in a few words, much of
• 50:24
  Speaker 8: this data gathering happens in other government agencies to which
• 50:28
  Speaker 8: we oh a tremendous amount of respect, amount of deference.
• 50:33
  Speaker 8: But if in the course of this we come up
• 50:35
  Speaker 8: with recommendations which FED staff have already begun to develop
• 50:40
  Speaker 8: about things that they could be doing to help inform
• 50:44
  Speaker 8: us as policymakers, we're not going to hesitate. Again. I
• 50:47
  Speaker 8: don't want to try to delineate the four corners of
• 50:51
  Speaker 8: the research of the Task Force on Data, but I
• 50:54
  Speaker 8: do think there will be a review of official statistics
• 50:58
  Speaker 8: and at least is important view of bringing the best
• 51:01
  Speaker 8: practices from the private sector and new analytical tools made
• 51:05
  Speaker 8: possible by AI, so we can forge these into a
• 51:09
  Speaker 8: fabric that gives us better real time information. So, as
• 51:12
  Speaker 8: I mentioned before, when we're making decisions. We're making decisions
• 51:16
  Speaker 8: that we'd say are real contemporaryist data, not data that
• 51:20
  Speaker 8: we call contemporary US that's really an echo of history.
• 51:24
  Speaker 11: Okay, thanks.
• 51:26
  Speaker 18: The other question I wanted to ask is related to
• 51:29
  Speaker 18: the building renovations. Are you considering any changes to the
• 51:32
  Speaker 18: renovations the projects just in light of the fact that
• 51:35
  Speaker 18: they became kind of a political football in the last year.
• 51:38
  Speaker 8: I heard something about that. I don't think I'm breaking
• 51:43
  Speaker 8: any news, but my view, when you show up at
• 51:46
  Speaker 8: a new institution, you should go meet with the Inspector
• 51:49
  Speaker 8: General just as a matter of good practice. It's a
• 51:53
  Speaker 8: practice that I hope to continue. I've had one meeting
• 51:56
  Speaker 8: with the Inspector General and he told me what I
• 51:59
  Speaker 8: believe the world knows, which he'll be coming out with
• 52:01
  Speaker 8: a report on the building and the building projects at
• 52:06
  Speaker 8: some point later this summer, and I'll be interested in
• 52:10
  Speaker 8: reading the report from my perspective with a forward looking glance.
• 52:15
  Speaker 8: Is there anything that we can be doing or should
• 52:17
  Speaker 8: be doing from this moment until the completion of the
• 52:20
  Speaker 8: project to do what we can to be good stewards
• 52:23
  Speaker 8: of taxpayer money and make sure that we're delivering on
• 52:27
  Speaker 8: the promises that we made some more work to do.
• 52:31
  Speaker 8: You might not be surprised. In the first few weeks,
• 52:33
  Speaker 8: I've been somewhat preoccupied on other matters, but I promised
• 52:35
  Speaker 8: it to get to the full breadth of the Fed's
• 52:39
  Speaker 8: tasks in the weeks ahead.
• 52:41
  Speaker 19: Victoria, Hi, Victoria, we deal with politico. So I know
• 52:48
  Speaker 19: that you did not submit a forecast, but you are
• 52:51
  Speaker 19: the person who is authorized to speak on behalf of
• 52:53
  Speaker 19: the FMC. So I'm wondering if you could tell us
• 52:55
  Speaker 19: in the SEP the increase in the expectations for inflation,
• 53:00
  Speaker 19: is that all because of the Iran war? What was
• 53:04
  Speaker 19: the discussion around what the expectations for inflation being higher
• 53:08
  Speaker 19: and also potentially growth being slower.
• 53:10
  Speaker 8: So my read of what I heard in the room
• 53:17
  Speaker 8: reflected I must admit in the SEPs is half of
• 53:21
  Speaker 8: my colleagues thought the policy rate, given all those developments,
• 53:25
  Speaker 8: should be at this level or lower between now and
• 53:28
  Speaker 8: your end, and the other half thought higher. That nineteenth
• 53:32
  Speaker 8: voter was me and I didn't submit one. There's a
• 53:35
  Speaker 8: range of views on the questions of first and second
• 53:40
  Speaker 8: round effects. No resolution or conviction, but we'll be meeting
• 53:47
  Speaker 8: again in six weeks I think we're going to know
• 53:49
  Speaker 8: more then, and I think that my colleagues are very
• 53:54
  Speaker 8: attentive to incoming developments between now and then.
• 53:57
  Speaker 19: And can I just quick follow up on the SEP.
• 54:00
  Speaker 19: You said that you're still encouraging your fellow committee members
• 54:04
  Speaker 19: to submit forecast even if you're not doing it. So
• 54:06
  Speaker 19: what do you think is the benefit of them doing
• 54:08
  Speaker 19: it even if you don't.
• 54:10
  Speaker 8: That's the commitment that the FMC made and it's a
• 54:13
  Speaker 8: commitment that I hope we live up to. Commitment we
• 54:17
  Speaker 8: made was to deliver price stability. I expect us to
• 54:20
  Speaker 8: live up to it by the time we get to
• 54:23
  Speaker 8: the end of this year. As I mentioned, I wouldn't
• 54:26
  Speaker 8: be surprised if there was a new communications framework. There
• 54:30
  Speaker 8: were some changes the SEP. That's a committee discussion, a
• 54:34
  Speaker 8: robust discussion. I think we'll have it. I believe we're
• 54:37
  Speaker 8: going to come to a better mix of communications to
• 54:43
  Speaker 8: deliver on what we promised. But I wouldn't want to
• 54:45
  Speaker 8: prejudge what those are. But between now and then, I
• 54:48
  Speaker 8: would continue to expect colleagues to submit their SEPs, some
• 54:53
  Speaker 8: of them. I believe that the practice is currently structured
• 54:58
  Speaker 8: is okay. But I heard a lot of in real
• 55:00
  Speaker 8: reform generally about all these topics you didn't ask it about,
• 55:04
  Speaker 8: I'll answer it was a it was a pretty gracious
• 55:08
  Speaker 8: couple of days, and it's been a pretty warm few weeks.
• 55:14
  Speaker 8: The institution wants to figure out how we can do better,
• 55:18
  Speaker 8: the institutions going back to first principles, and I'm encouraged
• 55:22
  Speaker 8: that what we've done in the statement, we're thinking about
• 55:24
  Speaker 8: doing with respect to the SEP, that instinct towards a
• 55:28
  Speaker 8: new chapter is a real one, and by the end
• 55:30
  Speaker 8: of the year, I hope we can put some points
• 55:32
  Speaker 8: on the board, both in form and in substance of delivering.
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: For the last question.
• 55:42
  Speaker 11: Her in Gimberg News, could you guide us through, please,
• 55:45
  Speaker 11: some of the principles that guide your own reaction function
• 55:49
  Speaker 11: and tell us a little bit about kind of conditions
• 55:51
  Speaker 11: that you think when the Fed should respond.
• 55:56
  Speaker 8: It's going to be a very unsatisfactory answer to the
• 55:58
  Speaker 8: final question. The Federal Reserve has a lot of responsibilities,
• 56:06
  Speaker 8: not just in monetary policy, but in supervision and regulation,
• 56:09
  Speaker 8: consumer affairs, and payments. My own view is our credibility
• 56:15
  Speaker 8: comes from delivering on what we're saying we're going to
• 56:17
  Speaker 8: do across everything we do. I've devoted more time in
• 56:22
  Speaker 8: my first three weeks to monetary policy than all those things.
• 56:26
  Speaker 8: But the more we deliver on our promises as good
• 56:28
  Speaker 8: supervisors and good regulators, the more benefit we get, the
• 56:32
  Speaker 8: more credibility enhancement we have in monetary policy. When we
• 56:36
  Speaker 8: deliver on our price stability objectives, which we will, the
• 56:41
  Speaker 8: American people will feel as though the hardships that they've
• 56:44
  Speaker 8: been living through in part because of inflation the last
• 56:47
  Speaker 8: five years are in the rear view mirror, and that
• 56:49
  Speaker 8: credibility will have dividends dividends across what we do, and
• 56:53
  Speaker 8: the Institution will come to press conferences like this always
• 56:57
  Speaker 8: with an impetus to reform, always with an impetus to
• 57:01
  Speaker 8: do better. But we're going to put some points on
• 57:03
  Speaker 8: the board.
• 57:04
  Speaker 11: I'm at the labor data in recent months. How would
• 57:07
  Speaker 11: you sum up with labor data, a labor market right
• 57:09
  Speaker 11: that you see, the stable, the potentially a source of inflation?
• 57:12
  Speaker 11: Thank you?
• 57:13
  Speaker 8: Yeah, So the committee, if I were to try to
• 57:18
  Speaker 8: capture how the committee thought about it, the committee thought
• 57:21
  Speaker 8: that the labor markets were stable. There were some people
• 57:25
  Speaker 8: around the committee who thought that it was trending better
• 57:28
  Speaker 8: than that. Trends matter more than data points. What's happening
• 57:35
  Speaker 8: over three or six months matters more than any one
• 57:38
  Speaker 8: data point, any one data release, and I'd say the
• 57:41
  Speaker 8: job's data has been moving in a good direction. If
• 57:44
  Speaker 8: I heard one other thing around that subject over the
• 57:47
  Speaker 8: course of the last couple of days, what I heard
• 57:51
  Speaker 8: was that strong productivity led growth is not something that
• 57:57
  Speaker 8: we fear, but something we embrace. Thank you all very much.
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: All right, guys, So a lot coming out of this meeting,
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: and I think what you may have saw was that
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: he said a whole lot of nothing and other than
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: he's got task force upon task force that are going
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: to be into this. A couple of points though, that
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: I think to consider here is how he's going to
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: be digesting data, and I think that was something I
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: mentioned earlier, is how are they going to be looking
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: at data coming in?
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: Are they going to use AI? He seemed to kind
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: of lean into that.
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: The other thing is they didn't really mention anything about
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: the Middle East other than what he mentioned right at
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: the beginning, so that was a bit interesting. The other comparisons,
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: I think is how are they going to go about
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: their communications side of thing? Meaning are they going to
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: do these press conference. Are they going to give the
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: American people more information or do they start to make
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: moves behind the scenes, And that would be I think
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: a catastrophe for not only the FED, but I think
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: also for the whole issue of around how the economy
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: is trying to dissect what the FED is doing. So
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: that is the one thing that Powell did do and
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: brought out because if you'll remember, pre COVID and during
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: the pandemic, we never really saw the FED out in
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: front like this, and Powell pretty much was the guy
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: who kind of brought this forth. So it will be
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: interesting to see if he changes that. So the things
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: I'm watching right now is their communication strategy, what these
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: task force are actually going to be doing, and will
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: they have any teeth in how they go about digesting data?
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: If the data is coming in faster, are they going
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: to let us in the rest of the media know
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: how that data is being analyzed because remember most of.
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: The data that we well, all of the data.
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: That the FED chair looks at, it usually gets digested
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: through the markets and into the FED almost at the
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: same time. So all of that going forward, now you
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: will ask did I think it was bullish or bearish.
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: I think right now he sidestepped a lot of answers,
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: maybe because he just doesn't know yet and it is
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: his first, you know, his first FOMC meeting, first true challenge,
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: I think in sense of what the market will be
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: looking for, which was at least some guidance. The fact
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: that they're going to be eliminating for guidance at least
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: the way we have seen it in the past is interesting.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: That may actually be a good thing in the future.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: But I think the issue that he needs to address
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: better in the future FMCS is actually answering questions, you know,
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: to the sense of either have a position or don't
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: have a position, And that's the concern I see right
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: now with way that he went about this one. Obviously,
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: the market, you know, Bitcoin, of course, has pretty much
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: been flat during this meeting. I'm on the five minute
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: chart right there you can kind of see it's not
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: been moving much. I think the real question heading out
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: of this is when you cause remember that there are
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: only he's going to be at the.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: End of next month, that is in July.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: We don't I think it's August is the miss, and
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: then it goes in September October, we don't have a November,
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: and then we have one in December. Point being, is
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: that how they play this out that will give us
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: some indications of maybe how the FED is going to
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: go into either money printing status or into a position
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: where we continue to see pressure on inflation, which I
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: think is the real question mark right now. So what
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: it boils down to, guys, is the issue in Iran
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: It is going to continue to be I think the
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: factor that will dictate to the FED to be able
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: to make any decisions on whether we get rate cuts
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: now do we not get because he even mentioned that
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: it looked like we were going to be somewhat in
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: a holding pattern through their analysis of this year and
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: even into twenty twenty seven, So maybe that is giving
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: them some cushion if in fact we start to see
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: inflation being addressed, if in fact we do see a
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: deal coming out of Iran, and of course if that happens,
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: then of course we will deal with I think some
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: money printing overall. I'm not going to say I'm on
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: Palell side. No, So some of the comments coming out, yeah,
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: I think the key here right now is that Palell
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: was more seasoned with dealing with the press than this
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: guy is, and that I think either will come with
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: time or he's always going to be this right here,
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: So we'll see.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: And I'm not a lib so forget that.
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: Clarity I do think is an issue right now. We
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: are going to have a major factor that plays into this. Now.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you guys have seen the latest
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: news on this, but.
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: There is some issues with Clarity maybe even being challenged
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: into the prediction markets. And what I mean by that
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: is that now all of a sudden, prediction markets are
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: possibly being you know, looked at as a potential of
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: either a bolton into the Clarity act. I don't know
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: if that will happen this late in the game, but
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: the fact that that is coming out right now and
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: is starting to bring up interest in it is very,
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: very troubling. The other thing I think you have to
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: consider right now is whether or not he actually uses
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: real data, because this would be intriguing. It sounds to
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: me like they're almost looking at a true inflation type
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 2: solution or some sort of AI integration, because he seems
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: to be somewhat aligned up with AI. So if that
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: is the case, then at least the data itself would
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: start to change.
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: I think some of the strategies that this FED is.
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: Going to be going on the dot plot so they
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: can act on politics. I don't know if that is
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: a big deal. I do think that he sidestepped a
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: course the Trump question. I didn't anticipate that he would wouldn't,
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: but the fact that he has not gone into a
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: situation where this guy is saying, Hey, I'm going to
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: go in and really reposition everything. However, I would say this,
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: he seems to be laying groundwork right now. That concerns
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: me a little bit because if he is laying groundwork
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: for a strategic move down the wind, because this all
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: boils off of data and how we're going to digest
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: what's coming in from the macro side of things, and
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: I mean we meaning the FED, and that I think
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: is the factor moving forward. If the IRN deal comes
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: through and we see immediate energy pricing adjustments because we
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: have seen oil continue to track down here recently.
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: If that holds and we start to see.
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: Some of that, you know, filter over into other sectors
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: of inflation, all right, then maybe he's going to play
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: this with a productivity card. Towards what's happening in the
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: AI area. So I don't know, I would agree. I
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: don't know why Trump would have picked this guy, because
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: I feel like he's got a hawkish.
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: Base with a little bit of loose strategy here, and
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: I understand his plan.
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: I don't understand his plan, but I understand what he's
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: trying to do, and that is, hey, I want to
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: run things differently, which is one of a lot of
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: CEOs when they go into brand new businesses, you know
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: they want to run things differently. Clarity has gone quiet,
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: but I think it still is on a very fast track,
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: and we are dealing with a situation right now with Clarity.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: I don't know if it's moved much. To help me
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: pull it up real quick and give you guys some insights, Yeah,
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 2: it's moved up slightly. Here we are at fifty three
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: percent chance. It's edging above the fifty three percent chance
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: right now. That's on the weekly they're on poly market.
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 2: But it is one that plays into this, and of
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: course Clarity, I think is really the thing we need
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 2: to be watching right now, at least in the risk
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: markets heading out to this. Let me know if you
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: guys like these lives. I know some of you guys
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: asked what happened to the live shows. We used to
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: do a lot of live shows, and it wasn't the
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: people that come. There's great attendance that the issue was
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: that it's a lot of work on our team. You know,
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 2: we try to mainly go much deeper now on shows
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: for you give you more analysis rather than just news,
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: and I think hopefully you like.
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: It that way.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: But let us know in the comments if you do
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: want more lives, we always bring the FOMC Live to
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: you so we can comment on that. But right now, guys,
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: I got not much for you on this one. He
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: is not I don't think he's going to affect the
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: markets in a good way, at least in the near term,
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 2: and that has been kind of the case historically. But
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: the real question is the strategy. And this fallback on
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: these you know, these task force concerned me a little
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: bit because it's almost as he's developing a crutch for
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: him to not make decisions, and unfortunately that would be
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: bad for the FED and I think for the economy
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: in general. All right, guys, you saw it coming here today,
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: Make sure a lot and subscribe.
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: Do that and we'll catch you later. Take care,