Latest / Disguised Coverage / Buffalo Bills vs Seattle Seahawks Matchups Featuring Mina Kimes | DC
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: It's thirty eight. All bills can win In here, Wake
- 0:02Speaker 1: puts it down, the kick is.
- 0:04Speaker 2: On the way, and d dock and the bill good one?
- 0:07Speaker 3: How the hell that one.
- 0:11Speaker 2: Home?
- 0:11Speaker 3: How one?
- 0:13Speaker 2: They were a party one not party way?
- 0:16Speaker 1: Incredible?
- 0:17Speaker 2: Why not combat by my bell?
- 0:19Speaker 3: Jacksonville's perfect record on the line right here.
- 0:27Speaker 2: Quick.
- 0:30Speaker 3: Kicking, look excited.
- 0:31Speaker 2: Touchdown Kyle Williams touchdound amazing, unbelievable. They puttied william who's
- 0:54Speaker 2: has to full back and he scores a touchdown. It's
- 0:58Speaker 2: wealthier to face tackle.
- 1:16Speaker 1: What's good? Folks, Family, friends, loved ones, enemies, friendemies, wizards,
- 1:20Speaker 1: which is muggles, mud bloods, people a Middle Earth to
- 1:22Speaker 1: another episode of Disguised Coverage. The only podcast that gives
- 1:25Speaker 1: you an equal amount of blueberries in each muffin and
- 1:27Speaker 1: is presented by the best Pizza in Buffalo, New York.
- 1:29Speaker 1: That is One Pipe Pizza. Find me online menu in
- 1:31Speaker 1: the episode show notes, whether here on YouTube, whichever podcasting
- 1:34Speaker 1: Apple platform you are listening to this show on. I'm
- 1:38Speaker 1: your host, Anthony Prohaska. Find me on Twitter at pro
- 1:40Speaker 1: Underscore Underscore ant that's pro two underscores a n T.
- 1:44Speaker 1: In this offline edition of disguised coverage. We will be
- 1:48Speaker 1: diving into the critical elements, matchups, pieces that will decide
- 1:53Speaker 1: Bills versus Seahawks, as we normally do here in the
- 1:55Speaker 1: regular season. As I mentioned earlier in the week when
- 1:58Speaker 1: I did that film breakdown of Keon Coleman against the Titans,
- 2:01Speaker 1: had a bit of a different schedule this week. No
- 2:03Speaker 1: live show on Tuesday Night did the Keon Coleman breakdown
- 2:07Speaker 1: this episode, featuring the matchups and the elements obviously being
- 2:11Speaker 1: recorded offline and then being uploaded. And the reason that
- 2:14Speaker 1: I did that was to accommodate my guest on the show,
- 2:18Speaker 1: and I'm extremely excited to have her back on making
- 2:21Speaker 1: her second appearance on this show. I am thrilled to
- 2:24Speaker 1: welcome back the tremendous Mina Kimes. Thank you very much
- 2:27Speaker 1: for joining me again.
- 2:27Speaker 4: Hey, thank you for having me.
- 2:29Speaker 1: How's it going.
- 2:30Speaker 4: It's going good.
- 2:31Speaker 3: You know, Seahawks coming off of a dove, got a
- 2:36Speaker 3: challenging but interesting matchup that we're going to talk about today.
- 2:39Speaker 3: I'm at This is I think one of the better
- 2:41Speaker 3: games of the weekend. I'm looking forward to it.
- 2:43Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this is a good one too. This
- 2:45Speaker 1: is one that I had earmarked when the Bills schedule
- 2:48Speaker 1: came out. They don't. I feel like they don't face
- 2:50Speaker 1: Seattle too much. And Seattle is such a cool place
- 2:53Speaker 1: to play. I mean usually not for opponents because it's
- 2:55Speaker 1: like hard to win there. But I just think the environment,
- 2:58Speaker 1: the fans, the team. I really enjoy like watching what's
- 3:03Speaker 1: going on.
- 3:04Speaker 3: No see, it was the last time the Bills played
- 3:05Speaker 3: in Seattle. Am I forgetting something recently?
- 3:10Speaker 1: The one that I remember the most was that Monday
- 3:12Speaker 1: night game where Richard Sherman took out the Bills kicker
- 3:15Speaker 1: at the end of the first half.
- 3:16Speaker 3: And then she the wife, tweeted something about, yeah, that
- 3:21Speaker 3: was a long time ago.
- 3:23Speaker 1: Bills came close in that one, Tyrod Taylor started to
- 3:26Speaker 1: lead them back. I think they had a chance to
- 3:28Speaker 1: tie it or win it incomplete down the stretch. Tyro
- 3:30Speaker 1: that's man. That was a while with Tyrod Taylor and
- 3:33Speaker 1: Robert Woods were making work for the Bills. I remember.
- 3:35Speaker 1: I remember that one and then the two main games
- 3:40Speaker 1: against Seattle. I remember that one and then the one
- 3:41Speaker 1: where Seattle came to Buffalo, but they played up in
- 3:44Speaker 1: Toronto and Seattle just waxed the Bills, and I always
- 3:48Speaker 1: remember that one because Richard Sherman talks about Bills wide
- 3:51Speaker 1: receiver Stevie Johnson as being like one of the hardest
- 3:54Speaker 1: guys he's ever had to cover, and he references that game,
- 3:56Speaker 1: and that game is just filled with Stevie like release,
- 4:00Speaker 1: sing off the line and shaking Sherman, and that was
- 4:02Speaker 1: like prime Sherman, like the yeah, he was so good,
- 4:05Speaker 1: so wild. So yeah, it's an exciting matchup, I think,
- 4:08Speaker 1: and I wish both teams weren't as potentially injured as
- 4:12Speaker 1: it looks like they're going to be, but that's really
- 4:14Speaker 1: been the story of the year for the Seahawks. I
- 4:15Speaker 1: was super disappointed to see how hurt their d line
- 4:17Speaker 1: was going into the game against Detroit. They're a bit
- 4:20Speaker 1: of a team I gravitate towards. Obviously, They're a team
- 4:22Speaker 1: that's near and dear to your heart. But yeah, I
- 4:25Speaker 1: think it's a really fun matchup given where each team
- 4:27Speaker 1: is in their trajectory right now and kind of what
- 4:30Speaker 1: they are schematically and how that meshes with one another.
- 4:33Speaker 3: Yeah, injury wise, you know, from Seattle's perspective, the defense
- 4:37Speaker 3: actually has gotten healthier and it looks like three Quillan's
- 4:40Speaker 3: gonna play in this one. They did get back Byron
- 4:42Speaker 3: Murphy Junior, who was really impactful. The defensive line has
- 4:45Speaker 3: been playing well. They were really injured during their losing stretch.
- 4:49Speaker 3: You know, they were missing a lot of players on defense. Offensively,
- 4:52Speaker 3: the bigger one is DK Metcalf, who is definitely up.
- 4:57Speaker 3: His availability is definitely in question this week, and that's
- 5:00Speaker 3: a big one and we'll talk about that probably when
- 5:02Speaker 3: we get to the matchups. But, like you know, I
- 5:05Speaker 3: I feel like this is in a Homer thing to say,
- 5:08Speaker 3: because I actually genuinely feel like all people who like
- 5:12Speaker 3: football nerds have come to maybe there's a consensus on this.
- 5:15Speaker 3: I love watching Gino Smith, and Gino Smith and Josh
- 5:19Speaker 3: Allen are maybe two of my amongst my two favorite
- 5:22Speaker 3: quarterbacks in the NFL to watch generally, but this year
- 5:25Speaker 3: for sure. So I think just as long as those
- 5:27Speaker 3: two are healthy, it should be a good game.
- 5:29Speaker 1: Yeah, it's nice to Seeattle getting a bit healthier upfront,
- 5:31Speaker 1: but then they got dinged on the back end. I
- 5:32Speaker 1: really want one to play just from a football perspective
- 5:34Speaker 1: because I like watching him. I like your point though,
- 5:37Speaker 1: with and Alan and Gino, I tweeted this earlier in
- 5:40Speaker 1: the week, you know, like the whole like styles make
- 5:42Speaker 1: fights type of deal. And granted they're not going necessarily
- 5:44Speaker 1: up against one another, but the play style difference between
- 5:48Speaker 1: what Gino is and what Josh Allen is. And somebody
- 5:50Speaker 1: commented who follows me on Twitter with just like Alan
- 5:53Speaker 1: being the force of nature that he is and Geno
- 5:55Speaker 1: being the technician and just seeing how they play and
- 5:58Speaker 1: the difference in it, And I just think it's such
- 6:00Speaker 1: a fun juxtaposition with those two quarterbacks. And I'm going
- 6:03Speaker 1: as similar boat like I really it's cool watching Josh
- 6:06Speaker 1: Allen be like a mutant alien unicorn. But it's really
- 6:09Speaker 1: fun to watch Geno navigate the pocket and what even
- 6:12Speaker 1: the touchdown pass to Kenneth Walker against Atlanta, So rush comes, yes,
- 6:16Speaker 1: it comes up on the right side, he dips under it,
- 6:19Speaker 1: steps up.
- 6:20Speaker 4: Isn't able to special And I love the way that's.
- 6:23Speaker 1: Such a good representation too, of how different they are stylistically,
- 6:27Speaker 1: because Gino in the pocket, he's stepping up, he's stepping back,
- 6:30Speaker 1: he's side stepping, he's got good feet. He looks like
- 6:34Speaker 1: a teach tape quarterback. And then Allen is like, now
- 6:37Speaker 1: I'm gonna stiff arm this defensive tackle on the face.
- 6:39Speaker 1: I'm gonna truck this guy. I'm gonna roll on my right.
- 6:41Speaker 1: I'm gonna throw at a yard from the sideline. Yeah,
- 6:43Speaker 1: it's it's such a fun I think juxtaposition between the
- 6:46Speaker 1: two quarterbacks and the teams in general, and we'll see maybe,
- 6:49Speaker 1: you know, those pieces come into our elements that will
- 6:52Speaker 1: decide Bill's versus Seahawks. Mina, you are the guests, and
- 6:55Speaker 1: I know we want to get you in and out
- 6:57Speaker 1: from a time perspective, so we're not gonna necessarily alternate
- 7:00Speaker 1: as we normally do here on the show. Mina is
- 7:02Speaker 1: going to give for three. I have my three as well.
- 7:04Speaker 1: Then I'm going to piece and splice in as we can.
- 7:06Speaker 1: But Mina, the floor is yours. Feel free to start
- 7:08Speaker 1: with whatever matchup you want, if you have him ranked,
- 7:10Speaker 1: if you want to start last the first, whatever you got,
- 7:13Speaker 1: the floor is yours.
- 7:14Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I'll say this despills rushing attack as
- 7:18Speaker 3: a whole, now that it's kind of both Davis and
- 7:20Speaker 3: Cook against you, I'll characterize it as Seattle's front seven
- 7:26Speaker 3: because you know, especially during the losing week, but during
- 7:30Speaker 3: much of the season, they did really struggle to stop
- 7:32Speaker 3: the run so much, so I think this was a
- 7:34Speaker 3: big factor in them making a pretty big trade for
- 7:38Speaker 3: a new middle linebacker who I believe is on track
- 7:42Speaker 3: to start as the middle linebacker in this game.
- 7:45Speaker 1: Had he just played the Bills this past week with
- 7:47Speaker 1: the Titans, which is funny he gets a little back
- 7:48Speaker 1: to back.
- 7:49Speaker 4: Actually, yeah, what what? I'd love to hear your take
- 7:51Speaker 4: on him, but I'll kind of just speak on that.
- 7:52Speaker 4: From the Seahawks.
- 7:53Speaker 3: Take Ernest Jones, the fourth who Seattle knows very well
- 7:57Speaker 3: from his time with the Rams, and who they traded
- 7:59Speaker 3: the type in this trade balance to the Seahawks they
- 8:02Speaker 3: sent back back to part of me as part of
- 8:07Speaker 3: the trade. I think it was a fourth round pick
- 8:09Speaker 3: and John Baker. So the linebacker play has been really
- 8:11Speaker 3: bad in Seattle this year, and it's so important in
- 8:15Speaker 3: Mike McDonald's scheme, and so much so that you know
- 8:17Speaker 3: in Baltimore he made the midseason trade for Roquan Smith. Look,
- 8:20Speaker 3: Ernest Jones is not Roquan Smith. However, I do think
- 8:24Speaker 3: he is much better against the run than Baker's been,
- 8:27Speaker 3: certainly this year. I do think he's also better in
- 8:29Speaker 3: coverage although it's not I wouldn't say he's like one
- 8:31Speaker 3: of the better coverage Liebakers in the NFL. It's a
- 8:33Speaker 3: very very good pass rusher, which is interesting to see
- 8:36Speaker 3: if McDonald unleashes him that. But you know the thing
- 8:38Speaker 3: about the with the run and he's coming in as
- 8:41Speaker 3: them in the linebacker off for a short week. I'm
- 8:45Speaker 3: very curious to see whether or not they have struggles
- 8:49Speaker 3: against what I believe is a very very strong Bill's
- 8:52Speaker 3: rushing attack.
- 8:53Speaker 1: I like that point, and you know, starting with Jones,
- 8:56Speaker 1: I think that's a good addition. You hit it on
- 8:57Speaker 1: the head. I think it's an upgrade over Baker. I
- 9:00Speaker 1: also think it helps schematically with Dodson, who played a
- 9:04Speaker 1: significant amount of snaps with the Bills last year. With
- 9:06Speaker 1: Matt Malonald being out, Dodson is better suited to be
- 9:09Speaker 1: more of that will and now you get to take
- 9:10Speaker 1: Ernest Jones have him be the mic. I thought he
- 9:13Speaker 1: flashed in some positive ways against the Bills this past week.
- 9:15Speaker 1: He had one bad coverage rep where he got caught
- 9:19Speaker 1: kind of like one on one with Khalil Shakiir in
- 9:20Speaker 1: the middle of the field and Shakira catches it and
- 9:22Speaker 1: almost like hesitates and freezes like oh you're a linebacker
- 9:25Speaker 1: and then just shakes him and gets upfield. But yeah,
- 9:27Speaker 1: you fit the run really well. You know, the ability
- 9:29Speaker 1: to stack and shed and come off blocks against zone
- 9:32Speaker 1: and gap and play downhill, and then how that functions
- 9:35Speaker 1: and fits with Dodson, and then the athleticism that Seattle
- 9:38Speaker 1: has up front now that they're starting to get healthier.
- 9:40Speaker 1: I thought there was a good move, so it was
- 9:42Speaker 1: for them, and I think your point is on the head.
- 9:45Speaker 1: I'm in a similar boat in terms of this Bill's
- 9:48Speaker 1: running game is where everything starts for the offense. It's
- 9:51Speaker 1: part of what you know. When I had you on
- 9:52Speaker 1: during the summer, we talked about kind of this new
- 9:54Speaker 1: direction for the Bill's offense under brading how it tied
- 9:57Speaker 1: in with trends and things. The running game matters so
- 9:59Speaker 1: much them, especially with how they're in structure. Passing attack
- 10:04Speaker 1: has been kind of brutal, like the majority of their
- 10:08Speaker 1: success has been allan kind of winging it and making
- 10:11Speaker 1: something happen downfield, especially from a deep ball perspective. Their
- 10:14Speaker 1: deep ball success is like a key on coleman back
- 10:17Speaker 1: shoulder against Arizona, the scramble and throw it a Ti
- 10:20Speaker 1: Johnson against Miami to scramble and throw to Khali Oshakir
- 10:23Speaker 1: against Baltimore. It's been the out of structure pass game
- 10:26Speaker 1: and the run that's allowed them to find success. But
- 10:28Speaker 1: the instructure pass has been a bit of a slog.
- 10:31Speaker 1: It improved a little last week with Marty Cooper, will
- 10:33Speaker 1: see how it trends. But the run matters so much
- 10:36Speaker 1: to this Bills team.
- 10:37Speaker 3: It sort of brings me to the next matchup on
- 10:39Speaker 3: the same side of the ball that I'm interested in,
- 10:41Speaker 3: which is kind of just put Joe Brady versus Mike McDonald.
- 10:44Speaker 3: But something that's kind of puzzling me a little bit
- 10:48Speaker 3: watching this Bill's offensive the last few weeks is Yeah,
- 10:51Speaker 3: when we spoke, we talked about, Okay, they're gonna have
- 10:53Speaker 3: a dominant rushing attack.
- 10:54Speaker 4: What can you build in terms of the passing attack
- 10:56Speaker 4: off of that? And it doesn't.
- 10:57Speaker 3: It doesn't feel to me like there's that connect there
- 11:00Speaker 3: that you see with a team like the Detroit Lions,
- 11:02Speaker 3: for example.
- 11:03Speaker 4: At the Baltimore Ravens.
- 11:04Speaker 3: In fact, they barely used play action at this point,
- 11:07Speaker 3: and I was hoping you might have an explanation for that.
- 11:10Speaker 4: But the thing the.
- 11:12Speaker 3: Reason why I think that matters a lot in this
- 11:14Speaker 3: game is the Seattle defense is super susceptible to play action. Obviously,
- 11:18Speaker 3: go I new linebacker coming in, but I think that
- 11:20Speaker 3: was one reason why they actually had an advantage against
- 11:23Speaker 3: the Falcons, who have a very Also. You know, we've
- 11:25Speaker 3: seen that a Falcons offense be very explosive, but they
- 11:28Speaker 3: do not run play action right, and that was one
- 11:30Speaker 3: of the things. So the linebackers were able to focus
- 11:34Speaker 3: on coverage and taking away the middle of the field
- 11:36Speaker 3: without worrying too much about run action. And I feel
- 11:40Speaker 3: that that is a mistake against the Seattle defense. If
- 11:42Speaker 3: you're a team that can do it, you should do it.
- 11:44Speaker 3: And I would really try to get Amari Cooper activated
- 11:47Speaker 3: on crossers in the play action passing attack if I
- 11:50Speaker 3: were them, something that he has done over the course
- 11:52Speaker 3: of his career at a very high level, something again
- 11:55Speaker 3: the Seattle defense has really struggled against. So, yeah, that's
- 11:59Speaker 3: something I'm interested in, is like, can Joe Brady find
- 12:01Speaker 3: a way to get to some of the concepts that
- 12:03Speaker 3: we have seen these Seahawks, the Seahawks defense struggle with
- 12:06Speaker 3: all season?
- 12:07Speaker 1: Yeah, the Bills right now, So I double checked to
- 12:10Speaker 1: make sure it's still accurate. The Bills have the highest
- 12:12Speaker 1: EPA per pass on play action this year at point
- 12:15Speaker 1: four to eight. The Seahawks have given up the fourth
- 12:18Speaker 1: highest EPA per pass versus play action. So you have
- 12:21Speaker 1: this Bills team that's great on play action, the Seahawks
- 12:23Speaker 1: defense that struggled against it, and you see them get
- 12:25Speaker 1: sucked up into it. But as successful as they are, Yeah,
- 12:30Speaker 1: how much do.
- 12:30Speaker 3: They use it?
- 12:30Speaker 4: Pull that because it's got to be low.
- 12:32Speaker 1: The Bills are last in the league in play action
- 12:35Speaker 1: passes at twenty nine. Yeah, and so that was early on.
- 12:40Speaker 1: Early on, it was them Arizona, San Francisco, New Orleans
- 12:44Speaker 1: kind of like at the top the first couple of weeks,
- 12:46Speaker 1: but the Bill, the sample size was very small, so
- 12:48Speaker 1: it was like, okay, as they start to rev it
- 12:49Speaker 1: up more, we'll see what happens. And they just haven't
- 12:52Speaker 1: revved it up more and leaned into it. The Texans
- 12:55Speaker 1: game was one that really got me. They especially in
- 12:57Speaker 1: the second half, they started establishing the run. They're winning
- 12:59Speaker 1: their get eight yards on first down and then on
- 13:01Speaker 1: second they're getting another four and it's a new set
- 13:03Speaker 1: of downs and you're thinking and they did this for
- 13:05Speaker 1: like three straight drives in the second half, and you're thinking, Okay,
- 13:09Speaker 1: here comes the play action, here comes the shot. They're
- 13:11Speaker 1: not generating explosives, they're not winning one on one in structure,
- 13:14Speaker 1: especially outside and deep. You need that play action game.
- 13:19Speaker 1: It's got to happen. And Nope, Like Brady just kept
- 13:22Speaker 1: hammering the run and hammering the run. And it's been
- 13:24Speaker 1: one of the biggest questions I've had, and it's one
- 13:27Speaker 1: of my biggest gripes with Brady's offense because exactly your point,
- 13:30Speaker 1: like it. It just messhes so well. And I know
- 13:33Speaker 1: everybody always throws in like, you don't have to have
- 13:35Speaker 1: a good run game to have a good play action game,
- 13:37Speaker 1: but it definitely helps. And the Bill's run game has
- 13:39Speaker 1: been good. Josh Allen, with his mobility, I just thought
- 13:43Speaker 1: we'd see more play action in general, but then more bootlegs,
- 13:47Speaker 1: more Alan on the move, especially as they've started to
- 13:49Speaker 1: struggle a little bit with protection. They've had some issues
- 13:52Speaker 1: giving up pressure to Alan. How Alan, if he starts
- 13:55Speaker 1: to feel a lout of pressure early, he'll get a
- 13:56Speaker 1: little skittish and start to evade sooner than he needs to.
- 13:59Speaker 1: As the game goes along, it just seems like such
- 14:02Speaker 1: a natural progression, and they haven't pressed that button as
- 14:07Speaker 1: much as I really thought they would, and you know,
- 14:09Speaker 1: exactly to your point, it just seems it just seems
- 14:12Speaker 1: so easy, like taking candy from baby, like running, and
- 14:15Speaker 1: for them to be so low in volume, and again
- 14:18Speaker 1: they're so effective with it. Some of that is going
- 14:20Speaker 1: to be a product of the lower sample size, but yeah,
- 14:22Speaker 1: last in the league and play action passing attempts per
- 14:26Speaker 1: next Gen Sports right now, they're lowest in the league
- 14:28Speaker 1: at twenty nine. The Patriots are the second lowest at
- 14:32Speaker 1: thirty five, and then the Seattle Seahawks are thirtieth at
- 14:35Speaker 1: thirty seven, which is another fun little tie in for
- 14:37Speaker 1: this one. But I understand it a little bit with
- 14:40Speaker 1: Seattle with what they've been through and gone through. But
- 14:43Speaker 1: I would also expect them to kind of tap into
- 14:45Speaker 1: it a little bit more given the offensive line injuries
- 14:47Speaker 1: and the struggle up front protection. But yeah, it's been
- 14:49Speaker 1: a baffling one for the Bills.
- 14:51Speaker 3: So interesting because that would definitely I would definitely lean
- 14:54Speaker 3: into that if I were them. Yeah, so that's that's
- 14:56Speaker 3: my second one.
- 14:57Speaker 1: Beautiful, Yeah, And then I agree you again, and for me,
- 15:01Speaker 1: it ties into so much to the Bills struggling within
- 15:06Speaker 1: structure with their pass game, and when you're struggling like that,
- 15:09Speaker 1: and again a lot of this has been pre Amari Cooper.
- 15:11Speaker 1: Mary Cooper came in last week, really started to help
- 15:13Speaker 1: a little bit with that ability to win one on one.
- 15:16Speaker 1: But what you started to see really starting with that
- 15:19Speaker 1: Baltimore game, if the Bills don't have balance offensively and
- 15:25Speaker 1: they get into a situation where the game script is
- 15:27Speaker 1: not favorable for them and they have to live in
- 15:28Speaker 1: more of a true spread or true passing attack. Once
- 15:31Speaker 1: they get into and this is symptomatic I think of
- 15:33Speaker 1: a lot of teams, but once they have to live
- 15:35Speaker 1: in more of that true drop back, known passing situation
- 15:38Speaker 1: type of world, it gets really really difficult for them.
- 15:42Speaker 1: And everything for the Bills again starts with the run.
- 15:45Speaker 1: The foundation of the offense and success is the run.
- 15:48Speaker 1: But then because they've struggled in structure with the pass
- 15:51Speaker 1: and they've struggled to win outside the numbers and deep,
- 15:54Speaker 1: you've see more teams start to run single high coverages
- 15:57Speaker 1: one and three. Obviously with cover one it's man coverage
- 16:00Speaker 1: Bills of that issue separating with that, but even Cover three,
- 16:03Speaker 1: a lot of times the coverage on the outside is
- 16:05Speaker 1: kind of just playing as one on one. The Seahawks
- 16:08Speaker 1: sit here right now with the with a fifty four
- 16:11Speaker 1: percent single high coverage usage rate twenty four percent Cover one,
- 16:15Speaker 1: thirty percent Cover three. That I think ties into so
- 16:18Speaker 1: much of the bill struggles then, and why I think
- 16:22Speaker 1: play action will help because defenses they're not scared of
- 16:25Speaker 1: getting beat one on one on the outside or deep.
- 16:27Speaker 1: They start to throw more bodies with single high alignments,
- 16:30Speaker 1: bring a safety to the box. Let's clog the middle
- 16:32Speaker 1: of the field. From a pass perspective, Let's also have
- 16:34Speaker 1: more numbers so we can gap out against the run.
- 16:37Speaker 1: And then the run game starts to struggle. The pass
- 16:39Speaker 1: game struggles further, and you would think, okay, like let's
- 16:42Speaker 1: just go a little play action, suck in those second
- 16:44Speaker 1: level defenders and try and hit something between the second
- 16:47Speaker 1: and the third. We haven't seen it and at the
- 16:50Speaker 1: play action piece is big for me in this one.
- 16:52Speaker 1: And overall, I just think, whichever offense this is kind
- 16:55Speaker 1: of how I title this one. It was a long title,
- 16:57Speaker 1: but like, whichever offense has more balance and can avoid
- 17:00Speaker 1: true drop back and known passing situations the most, because
- 17:03Speaker 1: even on the Seattle side, the more balanced they have
- 17:06Speaker 1: in this again true of a lot of teams. With
- 17:08Speaker 1: more balanced Seattle has they really start to function well,
- 17:11Speaker 1: especially given again their struggles up front to stay healthy
- 17:14Speaker 1: and in protection dk Metcalf potentially being out. But then
- 17:17Speaker 1: also like the motions and the shifts that Ryan Grubb
- 17:20Speaker 1: likes to use, especially as far as getting like in
- 17:22Speaker 1: and out of formations and alignments, those hit better and
- 17:26Speaker 1: or more if you're viable in the run and the pass,
- 17:29Speaker 1: both from gun and from under center. And from a
- 17:33Speaker 1: numbers perspective, Seahawks eleventh highest pressure rate allowed at thirty
- 17:37Speaker 1: six point two percent. Gino was pressured fifty one point
- 17:40Speaker 1: five percent of the time against Atlanta last week, and
- 17:43Speaker 1: Atlanta only had a blitzer rate of twenty one point two.
- 17:45Speaker 1: Granted they threw some creepers and some sims in there,
- 17:47Speaker 1: but also from a volume standpoint, Gino has been pressured
- 17:50Speaker 1: the most in the NFL this year. Yep. And it's
- 17:53Speaker 1: from a variety. It looks like it's traditional format stuff.
- 17:56Speaker 1: It's some games, it's some blitzes, some sims, some creepers.
- 17:59Speaker 1: Also some run blitzes that are getting through and affecting
- 18:02Speaker 1: them on first and second down. They're twenty eighth in
- 18:05Speaker 1: pass pass pro blocking efficiency for Seattle, and the Bills
- 18:09Speaker 1: have shown some weaknesses there again when they get into
- 18:11Speaker 1: the known situations being gamed up, and I think whichever
- 18:14Speaker 1: team can avoid those situations, especially considering how they haven't
- 18:18Speaker 1: deviated enough to kind of supplement that I think is
- 18:21Speaker 1: so important.
- 18:22Speaker 3: Yeah, this Seattle offensive line is not good enough to
- 18:26Speaker 3: just drop back you know fifty you know times again
- 18:30Speaker 3: we have seen It's really been noticeable in the second
- 18:32Speaker 3: half of a lot of these games. When the run
- 18:35Speaker 3: game starts going to your point, it really opens up
- 18:38Speaker 3: a lot of what Ryan Grubb wants to do offensively
- 18:41Speaker 3: in the past game as well, not even talking about
- 18:42Speaker 3: play action, just talking about like formationally and you alluded
- 18:47Speaker 3: to everything he does with the shifts and the motions
- 18:49Speaker 3: to It's a concern of mine against this team on
- 18:54Speaker 3: the interior, in particular, this interior of this outside of
- 18:57Speaker 3: Connor Williams. Their center is pretty good, but the guard
- 18:59Speaker 3: position is weak. So going up against Adult for Company,
- 19:03Speaker 3: you know, I mean, the field's foreman rush is very
- 19:05Speaker 3: good as a whole. I really I think that they're
- 19:07Speaker 3: so as a Seahaws by the way, now that they're healthy,
- 19:09Speaker 3: and I think these are both two pretty good four
- 19:11Speaker 3: man rushes from teams, neither of whom blitz at are
- 19:14Speaker 3: very highlight right, So I think that's going to be massive.
- 19:17Speaker 3: I guess to flip it to the other side of
- 19:18Speaker 3: the ball or to the genocide. One thing that I
- 19:23Speaker 3: sort of isolated with this game, and this is especially
- 19:27Speaker 3: with DK metcalf out, but I probably would have said
- 19:29Speaker 3: the same with DK metcalf in is I really want
- 19:31Speaker 3: to see Seattle attack the middle of the field.
- 19:33Speaker 4: And this is kind of always the case against.
- 19:35Speaker 3: Buffalo, right, but just because Buffalo has been absolutely shut
- 19:40Speaker 3: down outside the numbers. All the advanced metrics love what
- 19:43Speaker 3: they've been doing in the past game outside numbers, but
- 19:45Speaker 3: between the numbers, you start seeing a drop off, particularly
- 19:48Speaker 3: intermedia deep I mean, and the linebackers. Of course we
- 19:52Speaker 3: discussed might be a weakness with the injuries in this game.
- 19:54Speaker 3: So Gino Smith it's interesting because he doesn't throw over
- 19:59Speaker 3: the middle of field much in his offense, but when
- 20:02Speaker 3: he does.
- 20:02Speaker 4: He's awesome at it. He saw that on the post
- 20:05Speaker 4: the touchdown to the first half against.
- 20:09Speaker 3: All And I just looked this up because I was
- 20:12Speaker 3: curious because I think both these quarterbacks are really good
- 20:14Speaker 3: at throwing Between the numbers. They both Josh Allen has
- 20:17Speaker 3: the third lowest off target rate in the NFL and
- 20:19Speaker 3: Gino Smith has the fourth lowest, so they're both super
- 20:22Speaker 3: accurate to that part of the field. I think versus
- 20:25Speaker 3: Buffalo like that is, I would draw a giant circle
- 20:28Speaker 3: over that part of the field if I was Ryan
- 20:31Speaker 3: Grebb this week, and you know, if DK is not
- 20:33Speaker 3: in I mean worth looking at a lot of Tyler
- 20:35Speaker 3: Lockett JSN in the slot. Another player you talked about
- 20:39Speaker 3: the touch and pass I'd really like to see get
- 20:41Speaker 3: involved in the passing game here, especially with the weakness
- 20:43Speaker 3: of linebacker is Kenneth Walker. I mean that that was
- 20:46Speaker 3: an amazing pass. That was an incredible catch, right and
- 20:49Speaker 3: I feel like.
- 20:51Speaker 1: Even the stem a little bit, he comes and gives
- 20:53Speaker 1: a little two way go which way I go the rail.
- 20:57Speaker 3: So like that's something I feel like haven't tapped into enough.
- 21:01Speaker 3: Buffalo is thirty first in DVOA to pass this to
- 21:05Speaker 3: running backs twenty eighth and EPA pri play again, a
- 21:09Speaker 3: lot of that it's the linebackers, so that that is
- 21:11Speaker 3: something I would try to attack about Seattle.
- 21:13Speaker 1: I immediately perked up. This is literally one of my points.
- 21:16Speaker 1: I just titled it who controls the middle of the
- 21:17Speaker 1: field to strengthen some of your thoughts. There, the Bills
- 21:21Speaker 1: twenty fifth in middle of the field DVA, twenty sixth
- 21:24Speaker 1: in deep middle of the field DVA. For referenced Seattle
- 21:29Speaker 1: is twentieth overall in middle of the field DVOA. But
- 21:31Speaker 1: there's sixth in deep middle of the field DVOA. And yeah,
- 21:35Speaker 1: we alluded to some of the injuries for the Bills.
- 21:36Speaker 1: If Terrell Bernard misses this game, which he may, he
- 21:40Speaker 1: hasn't practiced this week today it was due to personal reasons,
- 21:43Speaker 1: but he may have nicked up and got dinged with
- 21:46Speaker 1: his peck again against Tennessee, which is what kept him
- 21:48Speaker 1: out earlier. He also got banged up with his ankle
- 21:51Speaker 1: that caused him to leave the game. Granted it was
- 21:52Speaker 1: kind of in hand towards the end, so we don't
- 21:54Speaker 1: know which is the dominant reason for him not playing
- 21:57Speaker 1: or not practicing today is at injuries at personal, But
- 22:00Speaker 1: the Bills become more vulnerable in that middle of the
- 22:02Speaker 1: field versus both the run in the past when he's
- 22:05Speaker 1: out and because Milano's still out, so then it's Dorny
- 22:08Speaker 1: and Williams. It's bal inspector. But I also think even
- 22:10Speaker 1: just from the middle of the field, I kind of
- 22:12Speaker 1: attach it all the way through like the spine of
- 22:15Speaker 1: the Bills defense, and starting with the interior defensive line.
- 22:19Speaker 1: Dai Juon Jones was playing at like all pro level
- 22:21Speaker 1: last year before he got hurt. We haven't really seen
- 22:23Speaker 1: that this year. At Oliver had such a strong year
- 22:26Speaker 1: last year, but he's been banged up, and when he's
- 22:28Speaker 1: been in there, we're not We're seeing the juice, but
- 22:30Speaker 1: not the effectiveness and the decisive wins that we normally see.
- 22:33Speaker 1: The Bills have a five point nine percent pressure rate
- 22:37Speaker 1: from players aligned at the interior defensive line spot, which
- 22:39Speaker 1: is twenty ninth in the league. Now that no exactly,
- 22:42Speaker 1: Now that's not yeah, but it's not just Now, that's
- 22:45Speaker 1: not just defensive tackles. If there's a linebacker, you know,
- 22:47Speaker 1: lined up in the A gap and a mug look
- 22:49Speaker 1: and he comes like, that's factoring into it from an
- 22:51Speaker 1: interior to the defensive line perspective. But the Bills haven't
- 22:54Speaker 1: done that a ton, so it really gives you a
- 22:55Speaker 1: sense of the lack of pressure they're generating from the interior.
- 23:00Speaker 1: And some of it is Daikwon, some of it's been
- 23:03Speaker 1: at Oliver even when he's been in versus when he's
- 23:05Speaker 1: been out, but the backup defensive tackles regularly displaced against
- 23:09Speaker 1: the run. In addition, in addition to offering little in
- 23:12Speaker 1: terms of pass rush, Dwayne Carter and Austin Johnson, they're
- 23:15Speaker 1: getting blown up by double teams, and you're pairing that
- 23:17Speaker 1: with the lack of triggering from the backup linebackers that
- 23:20Speaker 1: have been in there without Milano, and when Bernard has
- 23:22Speaker 1: been out, these double teams will displace the Bill's defensive tackles.
- 23:26Speaker 1: And then because you're not getting that trigger from the
- 23:28Speaker 1: second level, the offensive line are okay, we're just going
- 23:30Speaker 1: to stay on this double team and keep driving these
- 23:33Speaker 1: defensive tackles back, and it creates that further displacement. And
- 23:36Speaker 1: then Dorian Williams baal inspector again, if Bernard is out,
- 23:40Speaker 1: Spector will be in. They are susceptible to getting misled
- 23:44Speaker 1: or lost in coverage. They'll take bait, they'll chase the
- 23:47Speaker 1: misdirection even if Bernard's in there, you'll still see it
- 23:49Speaker 1: with Dorriyan, but Bernard does a really good job of
- 23:51Speaker 1: kind of correcting for that. And then the Bill's safety grouping,
- 23:55Speaker 1: tying in that last piece the spine. I don't think
- 23:58Speaker 1: they're bad like the combination of Hamlin Rap. I don't
- 24:00Speaker 1: think they're a hole or they're vulnerability, but I don't
- 24:03Speaker 1: think either of them necessarily unlock anything. And I think
- 24:06Speaker 1: with neither is neither strength is range or coverage or
- 24:10Speaker 1: speed or overall athleticism. And I know DK's out, but
- 24:14Speaker 1: if you can find that ability to push that middle
- 24:17Speaker 1: of the field, if you can create that separation between
- 24:19Speaker 1: that second and third level, and Gino is so good
- 24:21Speaker 1: and putting the ball right on the money and where
- 24:24Speaker 1: it needs to be past fifteen yards, you let them
- 24:27Speaker 1: get a catch and run. If one of the bills
- 24:29Speaker 1: angles are off from a safety perspective, branded they don't
- 24:31Speaker 1: do it a lot, they can really kind of get
- 24:33Speaker 1: them in trouble. And again that ties into on the
- 24:36Speaker 1: other side from that Seattle defense, the Bills. If they
- 24:40Speaker 1: it gets harder for them to find success in the middle.
- 24:42Speaker 1: If teams don't have to respect them being a threat
- 24:44Speaker 1: on the outside, which is where the Amari Cooper piece
- 24:46Speaker 1: comes in. But I think that's such a great point.
- 24:48Speaker 1: I'm in lockst up with you one.
- 24:50Speaker 3: There Rousseau against I think it's Mike Durrell, who's the
- 24:55Speaker 3: fourth string right tackle who played okay against Atlanta.
- 24:59Speaker 4: But different animal here.
- 25:01Speaker 3: So terms of this Bill's pass rush, so that that
- 25:04Speaker 3: is a significant concern of mine. I think the ball
- 25:06Speaker 3: is going to come out to come out pretty quick
- 25:08Speaker 3: for c.
- 25:09Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 25:09Speaker 3: I also think, like you know, some geno playmaking. It's
- 25:11Speaker 3: funny because to talk about Gino that way because obviously
- 25:14Speaker 3: Josh Allen is the quarterback we associate more with that.
- 25:16Speaker 3: But I have seen the Bill struggle a bit against
- 25:19Speaker 3: quarterbacks who are capable of creating outside of the pocket,
- 25:21Speaker 3: and Gino is capable of that. Sometimes it looks a
- 25:25Speaker 3: little bit more subtle in terms of the pocket movement
- 25:27Speaker 3: we were talking about. But you may also remember from that
- 25:30Speaker 3: game there was a play where Gino broke Contein and
- 25:34Speaker 3: he's rolling to his left and he finds Noah Fant
- 25:37Speaker 3: across his body.
- 25:38Speaker 4: He does he has that It.
- 25:39Speaker 3: Was a little bit Josh Allen, right, He's got that
- 25:41Speaker 3: in his bag too, and I think that might be
- 25:43Speaker 3: significant in this one.
- 25:44Speaker 1: I would say even just how he navigated pressure in
- 25:47Speaker 1: that game against Atlanta again over fifty percent pressure, which
- 25:50Speaker 1: is crazy high. He navigated it well and he had
- 25:52Speaker 1: touchdowns against it. He's scrambling and running for you know, yards,
- 25:56Speaker 1: but he's also scrambling and finding There was another one
- 26:00Speaker 1: two where he scrambles to his right and finds Fan
- 26:02Speaker 1: and dinks it right over the middle and Fan has
- 26:04Speaker 1: a catch and run. He also hits another sideline throw
- 26:06Speaker 1: rolling into his left. He was really able to kind
- 26:08Speaker 1: of again from a technical perspective, but he's he's not unathletic,
- 26:12Speaker 1: you know, He's not Josh Allen, but few are. And
- 26:15Speaker 1: that's also an interesting piece too, I think as well,
- 26:17Speaker 1: like how each quarterback handles the pressure that comes their way.
- 26:22Speaker 1: Seattle's defense, and I think this is The numbers in
- 26:25Speaker 1: a buck to read off are super impressive, especially considering
- 26:27Speaker 1: how much they've been banged up. Their fourth and pressure rate,
- 26:30Speaker 1: fifth in total pressures, ninth and sack rate. They have
- 26:34Speaker 1: five players with nineteen or more pressures Leonard Williams, Jaron Reed,
- 26:37Speaker 1: Draymont Jones, Boye Mafe and Derek Hall and then only
- 26:41Speaker 1: twenty fourth im blitzerrate at twenty three point six percent.
- 26:44Speaker 1: I love Byron Murphy coming out from Texas. He's back.
- 26:47Speaker 1: He had he had a tremendous rep where he blew
- 26:49Speaker 1: up a Bijon Robinson run against Atlanta, so he looked
- 26:53Speaker 1: like Godzilla kind of tearing through the city. But what
- 26:56Speaker 1: I think is interesting too on that side, if Seattle
- 26:59Speaker 1: can generate pressure, but also juxtaposing Alan and Gino Gino,
- 27:03Speaker 1: when he's navigating the pressure, he's in the pocket, he's
- 27:06Speaker 1: stepping up beside stepping all the technical things like we
- 27:08Speaker 1: talk about, Alan is more let me evade escape and
- 27:10Speaker 1: make a play. Seattle does have some athleticism up on
- 27:14Speaker 1: that front. And I know Alan is still a beast,
- 27:16Speaker 1: but Mafe, Derek Hall, even like Draymond Jones, their ability
- 27:20Speaker 1: to kind of cause some problems for Alan. Can they
- 27:23Speaker 1: chase him down? We again, Kirk Cousins and Josh Allen
- 27:25Speaker 1: aren't the same beast. But the play Mafe made in
- 27:28Speaker 1: space for the strip and then allowed Derek Hall to
- 27:31Speaker 1: get the touchdown against Atlanta. Also shout out to Devin Witherspoon.
- 27:34Speaker 1: I know you noted this as well, Devin Witherspoon just
- 27:36Speaker 1: hauling it up the sideline to get a piece of
- 27:38Speaker 1: McGarry so that Hall can score. Yeah, I think. I
- 27:41Speaker 1: think that's a really interesting matchup as well, like how
- 27:43Speaker 1: they deal with the pressure, each of them collectively, given
- 27:46Speaker 1: what their offensive lines are, what the structure of their
- 27:49Speaker 1: offense is, and then to your point, how each side
- 27:51Speaker 1: generates pressure, especially from the Bills perspective where a lot
- 27:53Speaker 1: of it's come off the edge. Greg Russou had eleven
- 27:55Speaker 1: pressures taking advantage of a weak right tackle situation for
- 27:59Speaker 1: Tennessee this past week. It can get ugly in a hurry,
- 28:01Speaker 1: I think for both sides, depending on how they play it.
- 28:05Speaker 4: Yeah, how are we feeling?
- 28:07Speaker 1: I don't know. I've gotten to the point where so
- 28:10Speaker 1: I'm extremely superstitious, and so I don't make predictions.
- 28:13Speaker 4: I know, I don't know that.
- 28:15Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm very superstitious, or the office reference like, I'm
- 28:18Speaker 1: not superstitious, but I am a little stitious, but I'm
- 28:20Speaker 1: sincerely superstitious. So I never make predictions. But I do
- 28:23Speaker 1: think if I knew where each team was from a
- 28:26Speaker 1: health standpoint, I would feel better. I'm gonna I'm not
- 28:31Speaker 1: gonna give a full prediction. I do think the Bills
- 28:35Speaker 1: have the edge in this one from a matchup side
- 28:38Speaker 1: of things, but I do think there is a game
- 28:40Speaker 1: script that realistically can happen for Seattle where it gets
- 28:43Speaker 1: ugly for the Bills and it's just too much for
- 28:46Speaker 1: them to overcome in Seattle.
- 28:48Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I picked this on my pod, which
- 28:51Speaker 3: we do the over game every week, if you guys
- 28:53Speaker 3: are listening, we do the Bills. Ever, we usually most
- 28:54Speaker 3: Bills games are good, so we usually do talk about
- 28:56Speaker 3: the Bills and length. But I did end up picking
- 28:58Speaker 3: Buffalo in this knowing that hearing that Bernard might miss
- 29:03Speaker 3: the game gives me like a little bit of a beat,
- 29:05Speaker 3: just because you know, that is a really sus linebacker
- 29:08Speaker 3: group against this offense. But you know the Seahawks, I mean,
- 29:12Speaker 3: you're talking about Mike Linebacker walking in right. I feel
- 29:15Speaker 3: like if maybe we were a few weeks out and
- 29:17Speaker 3: I had a better sense of how Ernest Jones fits
- 29:19Speaker 3: into this defense, I'd feel a little bit better about them.
- 29:21Speaker 3: But like, this is asking a lot against this rushing
- 29:24Speaker 3: attack in particular that I have so much respect for.
- 29:28Speaker 3: So I'm going Buffalo there. I just think offensively, they
- 29:30Speaker 3: have an advantage. I think we're going to see more
- 29:33Speaker 3: of Amari Cooper this week, maybe in the blay action
- 29:36Speaker 3: passing attack. I'm a huge fan of him. I really
- 29:38Speaker 3: like that trade. And I think Seattle's best chance of
- 29:41Speaker 3: this is I feel like I say this all the time,
- 29:43Speaker 3: Seattle is making it a high scoring game.
- 29:45Speaker 1: I was literally gonna say that, like, if Seattle wins,
- 29:46Speaker 1: it's like thirty one to twenty eight, or like thirty
- 29:48Speaker 1: four to thirty one. And yeah, the Ernest Jones piece
- 29:51Speaker 1: is really interesting. I how much can he pick up?
- 29:53Speaker 1: How quickly? I know he I think he was the
- 29:56Speaker 1: green dot guy in Yeah Los Angeles, so it was Yeah,
- 29:59Speaker 1: So you know, he's just our dude can vocalize high
- 30:02Speaker 1: football IQ. So I wonder how much he picks up.
- 30:05Speaker 1: And yeah, I am very excited for this one. And yeah,
- 30:08Speaker 1: I greatly appreciate you joining me. Just in case people
- 30:11Speaker 1: somehow do not know who we are or what you
- 30:13Speaker 1: do or all that stuff. The floor is yours. Anything
- 30:15Speaker 1: and everything you want to talk about you got.
- 30:17Speaker 3: Yeah. My show is The Minachimes Show featuring Lenny. You
- 30:21Speaker 3: can download it where we get your pods on YouTube
- 30:23Speaker 3: dot com slash at Minichimes.
- 30:25Speaker 4: Every week we recap TUESDA.
- 30:27Speaker 3: Monday Night football on Tuesday, do winners and woofs from
- 30:30Speaker 3: the weekend, and then we do a.
- 30:31Speaker 4: Full full slate of previews every week.
- 30:35Speaker 3: Every game is a new thing this season, and there's
- 30:38Speaker 3: stuff throughout the week too. This week I interviewed Pukina Kua, who.
- 30:43Speaker 4: Is back, so that'll be interesting.
- 30:45Speaker 3: Uh yeah, so check out YouTube dot com slash at Minakimes.
- 30:50Speaker 1: Yeah, tremendous show, as you know. I'm sure you know. Yeah,
- 30:53Speaker 1: you had Michael Junior on. I didn't watch it because
- 30:56Speaker 1: I didn't want any spoilers because I knew you guys
- 30:58Speaker 1: were a talk bill Seahawks and I didn't want to know
- 30:59Speaker 1: anything of time. But yeah, must watch, must listen for everyone,
- 31:03Speaker 1: and the Pukin de Coua episode was tremendous and the
- 31:06Speaker 1: clips you provided, I like the one him talking about
- 31:09Speaker 1: how they use motion and leverage and how important it
- 31:11Speaker 1: is for him and what it does, and how I
- 31:14Speaker 1: loved his point about how it allows Stafford to gather
- 31:17Speaker 1: intel and because he's so smart, I think we might
- 31:19Speaker 1: even get that ties in a little bit, even to
- 31:21Speaker 1: Seattle too, because of how heady Geno is and what
- 31:24Speaker 1: he can decipher from what you see with motion and
- 31:26Speaker 1: shifts and all that stuff. So yeah, thank you again
- 31:29Speaker 1: for joining me. If you're the best, Yeah, I sincerely
- 31:31Speaker 1: appreciate you taking the time. Everybody. If you enjoyed this episode,
- 31:34Speaker 1: please rate and review, subscribe on the podcasting apps or
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- 31:47Speaker 1: ones about how awesome the show is. If you thought
- 31:49Speaker 1: it was terrible, tell your enemies and try and ruin
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- 31:52Speaker 1: and friends and loved ones are all doing well and
- 31:54Speaker 1: staying safe. Be kind to one another, take care of
- 31:56Speaker 1: one another. I will see you next week. Godspeed, and
- 31:59Speaker 1: as always, Gobels