Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - 🚨Tech Stocks Crashing NOW! #AMD #PYPL #GOOGL + Stock Market News 05 February 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - 🚨Tech Stocks Crashing NOW! #AMD #PYPL #GOOGL + Stock Market News 05 February 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Good evening, sir, and welcome to this pre-market live stream.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: I want to walk you through the massive tech earnings we just got in, which weren't very good If you look at Google, at AMD, at PayPal, just even Disney, just in like all looking pretty horrific.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: And what does that mean?
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: What do we understand it?
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: Is it an opportunity?
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: And then, of course, we also have a huge crypto announcement yesterday and a bunch of other things that are moving markets today.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: My intention is for you to walk away as the best informed investor ever, so you can make better decisions, so you can potentially make more money and so you can afford heating.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: I don't like heating.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Actually, I always have the window open, so even in the winter, I tend to sit here with a coat on.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: In case you're wondering why I'm wearing this, I'm not sponsored by whoever makes this.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Mic is noisy.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Mic is very loud.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: What Mic is hot?
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: Okay, we seem to be having some audio issues there.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Oh, wow, it is very loud.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Why is it so loud?
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Interesting, okay, it's a little too close, eh.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Okay, I'll move it a little bit further away from the mouth.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: That might do the trick, but it's still pretty loud.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: I totally see what you mean.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: How's that, guys?
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: The sound isn't great.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: It's distorted, still distorted.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: Let me know if this is any better.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: If not hot mic better, much better.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Mic gain is like yeah, what's going on there?
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: There's something weird going on there.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: I don't know why.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Something about audio.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: That is a funky thing.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: It's definitely a little too noisy.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Let me take it down a notch.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Okay, that should be.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Oh, it's still pretty loud.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: All right, I shall try to speak more gently today, because it is pretty loud.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: I know you mean pretty loud, a little bit lower.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Maybe that's better.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Tighten up.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: Your technology says Ken, are you a sound engineer, ken?
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: All right, that's better, all right.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: So let's just jump straight into that.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: There's also one thing I'm very excited about.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: A lot of you have been begging and pleading, just like the Canadians and the I was going to say some Canadians, you know, some Mexicans and that sort of thing Offending my Canadian friends here.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Can you give me a discount code on the bamboo jacket?
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: No, I didn't do that sort of thing ever.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: You'll never see me do that.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: But what I do do is this we're going to I said, do-do anybody laugh On Saturday we're going to run a live breakout seminar for beginners and a lot of you guys were asking for it because we had 7,000 people on the last seminar and a lot of you couldn't do it because it was during the week and you were working, which I totally get, and therefore I've relented and I'm going to run one this Friday morning, new York time.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: So do check it out.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: And, speaking of Canadians, you got to make fun sometimes, don't you?
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: So you want to join and learn and see how we actually spot breakouts, how we make money out of them, how we beat the market and learn entry rules and exit rules, and this is really intended for beginners, so you don't need to know a thing.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Come and join me on Saturday.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: That's Friday.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: I should say Saturday.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Sorry about that.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: It should say let's do something about that.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: Okay, saturday.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: I corrected that.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: It should say Saturday.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: Does it say Saturday?
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Down below it does yes, and Then sign up.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: We'll open up.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: I think probably 3,000 spots and limited.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: There it is Saturday.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: Then we fixed it and that'll be that and we did.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: 7,000 people signed up last time and I won't do that again because I hated Zoom, so it'll be a bit more intimate.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: So check it out.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Now let's jump straight into the pain right Into the flames of hell.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: Paypal right, and I'll put out a separate PayPal video because I think it's that important.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Honestly.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: I think it's an enormous opportunity in my humble opinion.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: Let me just show you what's good, what's bad.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: Revenue grew 9%.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: That's pretty good.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Operating margin was a beat.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: They cut tech and development, they cut G&A, they cut the S&M and there is 3% restructuring costs down here, which eventually will go away because you won't have to fire people forever, and then that will get added to the top here, which will improve margin, which is actually quite a good thing.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: But what was bad?
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: Well, the market said gross profit margins are down.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: That's a terrible thing, and their guidance, so their future, was pretty unimpressive.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: So are they sandbagging or are they just buying themselves time?
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: Either way, the market absolutely bloody hated it.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Sean there from Canada, you know I love you really, you and all your moose, so you're very welcome on the chat, as usual, and then feel free to take the piss out of me.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: I am German.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: That should make life rather easy for you.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: So I set up a PayPal trade yesterday, which is definitely down, and I'm quite happy about that.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Not that it's down, but I personally feel that this is a company with huge, huge, huge, huge growth opportunities and, um, I think it's going to be very well.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Not, maybe not quite as well as palantir, not quite as quickly.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: And if you have seen what I've seen the light, uh, the chart.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: This was our first breakout here, at about $30.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: Then there was the second breakout here at about $50.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: And actually yesterday was another one.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: I don't know why it's not on the chart yet.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: I just told the guys it is.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Actually.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: We called it a breakout here yesterday and you might never think.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: Can I just follow the indicator, which, by the way, you can get inside Trade Vision.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: Brent, you're of German descent.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: I'm not just of German descent, I'm actually fully fledged German, like completely 100%.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: It's kind of hard to wash that off.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: Although soon there won't be any Germans left, apparently we will all speak Syrian, which apparently makes me a Nazi, but that puts me in good company with Elon, so I'm quite happy about that.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: Now, breakouts indicators are amazing right Like this.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: You can see these were very, very, very good calls, and we did the same thing on Tesla, for example.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Here, let me again, let me show you just so you get a bit of a flair for it.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: And then I come back to the PayPal story.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: That was the last breakout we called here and that was at about $280.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: So even after the sort of sell-off here, you're still up $100, right, which is pretty good.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: And SoFi, for example.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: Here was the breakout that we called Where's my pen?
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Pens are fickle there, right, which is pretty good, and that was at about $9.60, I think, if I recall correctly.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: So, again, that's a pretty sweet story.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: Meta, also look at that.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Breakout here, breakout there, breakout there, right.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Making money, money, money, money, money.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: So can you just follow the indicator, which you can definitely play around with if you want to and there is a link down below, it's felixfriendsorg slash tradevision and you can play with it for a week.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: But what I'm saying to you in a long-winded kind of a way is that there are sometimes breakouts that are better than other breakouts, and we will try our best to kind of codify that.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: But there is sort of a limit.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: When you jump up a tremendous amount, that makes the breakout riskier than, say, a smaller breakout like this one here, which is a much, much happier breakout.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: Well, this is quite a small breakout again, whereas a massive one which carries more risk and for that you need to learn experience, and I appreciate you don't have five or ten or twenty years to learn experience, but I think we can teach you experience in weeks, not years.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Seriously, so if that's something you're interested in, again, come and join me on on the seminar on saturday.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: We're going to a lot more details there because we have a lot more time for that kind of thing.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Um, interesting, the germans are all here.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: Some of you went to Berlin.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: It's cold, isn't it?
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Very cold Berlin.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: I used to go to Berlin rowing.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: I was part of sort of a semi-national rowing team type thing and they always did a race in Berlin.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: It's pretty awful.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: This was like I'm talking early 90s.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: I mean it really looked like some sort of Soviet hellhole Bloody, dangerous as well.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: They tried to mug us or stab us every time we got off public transport and we had to run literally.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: It was bizarre what they make 12-year-olds do in those days.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: But you know, all good and fair and it made me leave the country.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: Now, amd and I know a lot of you are, you know, into AMD and perhaps you watch certain channels or something.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: You talk about AMD like it is the golden child and it might be eventually.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: But if you look at the actual earnings numbers, what's the problem with them?
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: Look at that Revenue up 24% Woohoo, right.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: Gross profits are up.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: Operating profits are up Brilliant.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: They are cutting expenditure, which is good, but profit margin fell five percentage points With a 6% margin.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: That's pretty horrible stuff and so, therefore, the market's hating it, though they did give some very vague guidance that they thought that the future will be less horrible.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: So it's just and I said it's just too early, it's just too early and some stocks are just too early.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: It's down another 9.9%.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: It's down at $107.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: So it keeps falling.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: And I keep saying to people learn how to spot what Breakouts Breakout indicators are on.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: By the way, this is the chart.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: Do you see any breakouts?
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Do you anybody see any breakouts?
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Let me know on the chat here.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: Do you see any breakouts?
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: Because I can't see any, but maybe I'm colorblind.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: So when I don't see any breakouts, what do I do?
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: No, nothing.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: And it helps to preserve my money and it also means that the money people are putting in that's the real problem.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: People are putting in money here and here and here and here, right, and maybe eventually it'll go down, it'll eventually go up.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: So eventually here they'll say woohoo, I made money, right.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: But the problem is that in that entire period say call it a year or two you lost money.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: Why did you lose money?
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: Because other stuff went up a lot, just the whole thing from last year which you know.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: You're down all this period.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: The market is up 25%.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: So if you just bought the index and waited, you could have put 25% more in your falling knife, right?
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: So it's important that your money is in stuff that's actually heading in the right direction, right?
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: I'll see a photo to the right.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Yes, I also think so.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: It's somewhere in the future.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: Right, the breakout, and I think it will be.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: I'll see photo to the right.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: Yes, I also think so.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: It's somewhere in the future.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: Right, the breakout, and I think it will be, but at the moment it isn't.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: And earnings certainly didn't do anything to help.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: Now Google reported numbers which actually, on the face of it, look brilliant.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: Revenue up 12%.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: Margins are up.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Margins are up.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: Gross net margins are up.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: They're spending less money.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: It's just like everything is up.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: Cloud they're spending less money.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: It's just like everything is up.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Cloud Compute's up 30%.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: Google Play 30%.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Youtube's flying 14%, because you keep watching me Search revenue up 13%.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: So what was the problem?
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: Cloud growth is a little bit less than they're hoped for and separately I think I've got the data here down below Google plans to spend $75 billion on CapEx, which is code for NVIDIA, in 2025.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: So you'd think NVIDIA stock would absolutely skyrocket today, wouldn't you?
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: Well, let me show you what the NVIDIA stock is doing, because they're going to send a lot of money that way.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: So Wall Street once again is hating investment.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Wall Street once again is short term as a blind bat, and Nvidia it's up a little bit here one and a half percent or something like that, but really nothing to write home about and it doesn't really help the story that we've got here.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: So it's a weird market right now.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: Good news is bad news and bad news is bad news.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: It's one of those really Fox.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: My friend, would you change that link to the live seminar we're doing on Saturday?
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: I would really appreciate that Now.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: Then also pin it at the top of the chat, because I think that's the more important live event we're going to do this week and then you can ask me a ton of questions and we can have a lot of fun over there.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: Don't mention Stargate.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: We were a good quarter, okay cool.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: I haven't seen a look at that yet.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: Broadcom is also up.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: Yes, I did see that.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: I say Broadcom is one of the shiny examples here.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: Now this is a screenshot from the David Sachs announcement that a Bitcoin strategic reserve is at the top of the list, and given how much these three gentlemen are smiling and laughing, I'm assuming that they are very long.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin or bought call options yesterday.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: So as Bitcoin moved not really, it really hasn't.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: It's put it in here BTC USD it's $98,000.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: It's sort of like going nowhere really, which is weird.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Right, you think it'd go absolutely through the moon, but at the moment it isn't.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: So sometimes it's a buy the rumor, sell the news type thing.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: I do still think, once we get through this wobble and the tariffs and settling into this slightly mad presidency that seems to be working seven days a week, 24 hours a day and not giving us a break, I personally am very bullish on crypto, but it might take a little bit of time.