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Episode 543 - 7/6/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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  54321 All Systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
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  welcome to episode 543 of the All Systems Go sports betting
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  podcast powered by Rhythm. I'm your host, Josh Applebaum.
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  What's going on everyone? Happy Monday, A new day here in
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  the arena, guys, and really the final stretch here before the
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  MLB All Star break. That's right.
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  We got about a full week left. Then the All Star break starts
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  next week. So last games are usually on
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  Sunday and then you got Home Run Derby a week from tonight, get
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  the All Star game a week from tomorrow.
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  Then you got a couple days off. Then baseball I think comes back
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  on July 17th. So we're going to try to make
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  some hay here because again, you know, we're we're grinding
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  baseball from start to finish, doing pretty good overall, but
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  we want to make the most of it. And also remember the fact that,
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  you know, next week is really the slowest sports betting week
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  of the year. So we have about a week left to
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  make as many units as we possibly can, produce as many
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  winning days as we possibly can. And then it'll be again, very
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  slow week where what often times we call the Gamblers Holiday or
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  the Gamblers Vacation or Gamblers, whatever, whatever you
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  want to call it. But that's the week where really
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  nothing's going on. Maybe you can find a WNBA game
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  to bet on, but that's about it. Or I guess World Cup, you could
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  still bet on that, but we're going to try to make the most of
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  it and see if we can start off this final week before the All
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  Star break on a winning note. So with that being said, I do
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  have a three pack of sweats for you guys, short favorite and two
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  bigger favorites. So today's a really, you know,
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  good reminder of always betting to risk, not betting to win.
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  So I got a couple big, big games here, big favorites.
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  We're going to make sure that we're risking 1 unit.
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  We're not betting to win one unit because that means we got
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  to risk more and if the team loses, we lose more.
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  So it's always trying to maximize your your winnings,
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  minimize your losses. So a three pack of MLB plays
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  today, as always trying to go 2 and 1 eek out a winning day.
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  Now I buried the lead. How was everyone's 4th of July?
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  Hope everyone had a great 4th of July weekend.
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  It started off great because me, the wife, my baby, my
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  sister-in-law, her, her daughter, my niece and her
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  cousin. We all went to the the parade in
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  a local town next to ours and it was really fun.
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  It was Margo's first parade as a three month old so pretty
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  awesome to have her look and wonder at the the fire trucks
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  and all the floats and it was pretty awesome.
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  So a great day celebrating the old USA turning 250 but then
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  also bearing the lead. Once again we cash the Nathan's
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  Hot Dog eating contest. No we didn't bet Joey Chestnut
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  you know -2000 to win it. Of course he always wins it, but
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  no value laying a huge number. But we got our under baby.
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  So again, you can laugh all you want, but we laughed right to
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  the bank. Yeah, how can you put on a hot
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  dog eating contest? What are you, degenerate?
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  What's the what's wrong with you?
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  You know what's wrong with me? Nothing because we cashed a
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  ticket and that's what it's all about using a data-driven
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  approach. Remember, you might have had
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  under 73 1/2 or under 72 1/2. I believe on Friday, last time
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  we talked it was down to 70 1/2 and I was getting a little wary
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  because you had missed so much of of good value there.
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  But it landed on 66. And Joey Chestnut, what I always
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  do and I had my niece and of course, you know, I'm trying to,
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  you know, teach my daughter how to get my three month old
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  daughter how to catch a hot dog eating contest.
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  But what I like to do is I know it's 10 minutes long.
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  So what I do is I write 4 numbers.
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  So I write first number is 2 minutes and 2 1/2 minutes,
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  Second number is 5 minutes, third number is 7 minutes and 30
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  seconds, and the fourth number is 10 minutes.
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  So I break it up and basically what I do is like, OK, he's got
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  to have, you know, 73 or less. So that means that the five
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  minute mark he needs what, 60 or 36 1/2 at the, you know, quarter
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  mark he's got to have 18 1/2 or less.
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  At the, you know, three quarter mark, he's got to have whatever
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  that was 54 1/2. And if you were doing the way I
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  do it, almost like you're sweating a total in like an NBA
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  game or an NFL game, you're cutting it up into four
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  quarters. He was actually off to a really,
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  really good start. And then this always happens.
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  You slow down. The heat jamming so many hot
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  dogs down the gullet, you tend to slow down.
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  And luckily he went under. So no matter what number you got
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  with the under, you cashed. So great, great hit there for
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  those of us who were able to cash one of my favorite bets of
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  the year, the Nathan's hot dog eating contest, Joey Chestnut
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  under baby. So we'll have to wait another
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  year until until we can bet that again.
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  I don't know. Should we bet the under
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  immediately when it comes out? We'll have to see.
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  We got a we got a whole whole full year to think about that.
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  But anyway, guys, I want to get going here because I do have an
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  early bet for you. So let's talk about it.
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  If you like it, you can ride it with me and overall, let's see
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  if we can produce a winning day. So first, but on the board, as I
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  mentioned, an early match up here, it's the only day game I
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  got AI got a play on this one. 2:10 PM Eastern Time we got the
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  Phillies visiting the Kansas City Royals.
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  Let's talk line moves, bet split system matches.
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  We give them my play for this one.
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  So this is the rubber match of a three-game interleague series.
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  The Phillies who are 50 and 40, they won the opener six to one
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  came through as a -, 160 road favorite.
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  Then the Royals, who are 36 and 54, they bounced back with A5 to
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  two win yesterday, came through as a + 115 home dog.
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  So in this afternoon's series finale, we got the fields going
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  with the lefty ace Christopher Sanchez having another Goodyear
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  10 and 3 ERA of two Royals, meanwhile, going with fellow
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  southpaw Noah Cameron, he's 4:00 and 6:00 with an ERA of 4.95.
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  So. What have you seen across the
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  market? Will this game open Philly
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  around a -? 165 road favorite KC around a +
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  145 home dog and sharps have gotten down hard on the
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  Philadelphia Phillies. So we've seen a massive steam
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  move toward the Phills. We've seen the Phillies go up
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  from -165 to -200 I'm now seeing the Phillies up to -210 and I
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  see one book at Philly -225 S just a massive move toward
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  Philadelphia tells you a lot of respected money just pouring in
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  on on the Phillies here. Now I was able to use an odds
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  boost. So this is where I think these
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  odds boost really come in handy when you want a favorite and you
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  got to, you know, chop that number down a little bit, make
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  it a little more palatable. So at the time when I wrote the
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  sharp board this morning and put it into the the Juice Reel app,
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  Philly was -200 FanDuel and I got them, I got them boosted
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  down to -165 so I pretty much got back to the opening number
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  thanks to that odds boost. I'm looking now, if you haven't
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  met the game yet, it looks like around -2 O 5 -, 210 is your
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  best number. But again, some shops as high as
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  -225 I'm even seeing like a -, 230.
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  Now, this is an important thing. You got to make sure you're
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  betting to risk, not betting to win.
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  So if you're playing Philly right now at -210 do not risk
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  2.1 units to win one unit. You're just risking your one
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  unit trying to get a little less than 1/2 unit back.
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  Because again, if Philly loses, you only want to lose 1 unit,
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  not 2.1. You're guarding yourself from
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  digging A deeper hole with all that steam.
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  I got to be on the sharp side here with the Phills.
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  A lot of system matches here. First.
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  You'll get the splits. Philly's getting 88% of money
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  line bets, 96% of money line dollars.
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  You look at Monday favorites coming off a loss who made the
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  playoffs the previous year, Phillies would match.
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  Those teams are 31 and 17. That is a 65% win rate with an
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  8% ROI this year. This is another one that kind of
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  gave me a little more confidence because it's a big, it's a big
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  number I don't like. I don't like laying these big
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  numbers, but hey, it's a sharp play.
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  And you know, we only got 8 games to choose from today.
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  But Monday favorites that are priced -200 or more.
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  They're 11 and two this year. That is an 85% win rate, 21%
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  ROI. Philly's going to bank on their
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  bats, hopefully getting to Kansas City's starter here.
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  Cameron. They have a four O 4 slug, 402
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  runs scored. Royals 387 slug, 369 runs
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  scored. Sanchez been great all year.
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  What jumped out to me is Philly's ten and two in his last
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  12 starts. Meanwhile, Cameron, he made six
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  starts in June. He gave up 19 earned runs and 31
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  innings pitch. That is a 5.52 ERA.
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  He's actually been worse at home than on the road.
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  On the road, 4.38, at home, 5.44.
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  Also the Phillies, they're 25 and 19 on the road.
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  That is a 57% win rate. That's the 4th best Rd. record
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  in baseball. And they're also 22 and 17 off a
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  loss. That's a 56% win rate and that
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  is the 6th best bounce back team in baseball.
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  So we got a massive steam move toward the Phills.
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  Obviously, you would have like to use an odds boost or get this
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  number a little bit earlier, but we do have also a 7%, nothing
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  crazy, but a 7% sharp mush edge on Philly from our friends at
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  Juice Reel. So it tells me we got a lot of
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  sharp Juice Reel betters also on Philly here.
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  So again, maybe you could boost it down to -165 that's what I
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  got. But -2 O 5 -, 210, probably your
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  best number. Again, bet trust not bet to win.
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  Let's go Phill's now a couple late games for tonight, 7:15 PM
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  Eastern Time. Let's look at a match up here in
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  the NL E between the New York Mets and the Atlanta Braves.
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  Now this is the final game of a four-game series.
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  The Braves who are 52 and 36 on the year, they won the first two
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  games. They won the opener 5 to 3 as a
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  -115 home favorite. They won the second game 14 to 3
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  as a -, 200 home favorite. Then the Mets, who are 37 and
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  53, they did claw back and win 10 to 9, hung on yesterday as a
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  -, 115 road favorite. So in the 4th and final game of
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  the series, the series finale tonight, the Mets are sending
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  out the ready Freddy Peralta. He is five and seven with a 4.81
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  ER a Braves meanwhile going with the ready Reynaldo Lopez.
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  He is 4 and one with a 3.31 ER A now.
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  What do we see across the market here?
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  Well, this game opened Braves around a -, 125 home favorite.
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  We look at the Mets here on a + 105 road dog, and not a massive
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  move, but the moves gone further toward Atlanta.
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  Atlanta's gone up from -125 to around -130 I'm seeing some
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  shops inching toward -135, which jumped out to me.
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  I just went Atlanta on the money line -125 kind of a cheap price
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  here, but did see a lot of run line support.
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  Atlanta to win by two or more. So if you get a -, 1 1/2 at plus
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  150, pretty good payout. They're getting over 90% of
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  spread bets and dollars at Circa Again, if you go -1 and half, I
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  hope they win by two or more short price like -125 I just
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  said, hey, let's go money line. How about some good systems on
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  the money line, Home favorites who are -140 or less and they
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  missed the playoffs the previous year facing an opponent who also
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  missed the playoffs the previous year.
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  Those teams are one O 5 and 65. That is a 62% win rate, 12% ROI
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  this year. You also look at the Braves with
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  an edge at the plate. They're hitting 248 on the year,
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  431 runs scored. Mets are hitting 231 with 360,
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  two runs scored. You also look at Lopez overall.
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  They're stretching him out. He was a reliever.
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  He used to be a starter, but I remember he pitched pretty well.
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  I remember we played the the Braves.
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  It was last week against the who's at the Cardinals and they
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  won 5 to 1. He pitched pretty good.
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  I think he went five innings one run, but he's been getting
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  stretched out and he's now three and O 3.19 ERA at home.
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  So hopefully pitches well here tonight.
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  Mets meanwhile, just one and four in Peralta's last five
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  starts. He's been really bad on the
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  road. Knock on wood.
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  Let's hope that continues. He's only two and four with a
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  six point O 6 ERA as a visitor. Braves, meanwhile, 27 and 17 at
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  home. That's a 61% win rate, 6th best
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  home record in baseball. They're also 22 and 13 off a
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  loss. That's a 63% win rate, second
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  best bounce back team in baseball.
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  So that's the spot they're in tonight at home and awful loss.
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  You know all the Mets get a load of this on the road. 18 and
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  2938% win rate, fifth worst in baseball.
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  But did you know the Mets are just two and 1313% win rate as a
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  road underdog. That's the second worst in MLB.
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  Doesn't hurt that we do have one.
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  Count it, one rhythm recommendation lighting up in
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  favor of Atlanta. So a little bit of movement, but
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  really to me is a system match play.
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  Hopefully Lopez greater than Peralta And again, those angles
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  of Mets terrible as a road underdog.
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  Braves good at home and off a loss.
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  Let's see if we can get a winner here with the Braves at a pretty
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  cheap price. I got it.
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  I got the Braves -125 I believe it was either Fanatics or
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  FanDuel. Last bed of the night.
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  And get ready, It's a big one. This might be my biggest number
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  of the year, which again, I don't love doing, but it's got a
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  lot of steam. So let's go to a 10:10 PM
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  Eastern Time. First pitch between the Colorado
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  Rockies and the LA Angels in Hollywood.
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  Rockies come in 37 and 54 on the year.
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  Just took. Two or three against the G men.
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  They won yesterday's series finale 7 to 6 as a plus one O 5
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  home dog. Meanwhile, Dodgers 59 and 32 on
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  the air. They just took three or four
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  against the Padres, couldn't complete the sweep though.
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  They lost 5 to 2 yesterday in the series finale as a -, 230
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  home favorite. So pitching match up here for
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  tonight. We got the Rockies going with
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  the lefty Kyle Freeland, two and seven, 7.25 ERA.
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  This guy needs to be traded out of Colorado.
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  I think he was rookie of the year back in the day.
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  But man, he needs a change of scenery and get out of the
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  altitude. But anyway, Dodgers going with
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  the fellow southpaw Eric Lauer. He is four and five with a 4.84
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  ERA. So what do you see across the
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  market? Well, this game open LA was
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  around a -, 180 home favorite, Colorado around a + 160 row dog.
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  And if you you like Philly with a big steam move, I think you
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  like the Dodgers with a big steam move because the Dodgers
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  have been bet up here -180 up to all the way -230 I'm even seeing
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  -240 even -250 now. It's a big number.
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  I got LA -225 at the score. I was searching for an odds
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  boost. I couldn't find one.
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  I only got one out of FanDuel today, and sometimes Bet MGM
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  gives you one, but I couldn't find another one.
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  So -225 when another book is 24250, hopefully you're getting
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  a little bit better of a number there.
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  That's from the score again, that turns first bet to win.
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  You're not risking 2.25 units when one unit, you're risking
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  that one unit trying to get a little less than 1/2 unit back.
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  But here's some good numbers to give you some, maybe some
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  confidence here. Dodgers 91% money line bets, 97%
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  money line dollars at DK, so good sharps foot in their favor.
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  And then the system matches. If you're a home favorite
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  between -200 and -240, which is where the Dodgers are, and
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  you're also getting at least $0.15 of steam in your
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  direction, Dodgers would match this one.
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  Those teams are 113 and 4572 percent, 5% ROI since the start
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  of 2024. If you're a Monday home favorite
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  off a loss who made the playoffs the previous year, Those teams
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  are 31 and 1765 percent, 8% ROI this year if you're a Monday
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  favorite -200 or more. We just talked about this one, a
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  match with Philly. Those teams are 11 and 285
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  percent, 21% ROI this year. Now, Eric Lauer, he's been good
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  since he got acquired by the Dodgers.
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  He's posted a 3.18 ERA and five June starts.
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  All wins only give up 10 earned runs and 28.1 innings pitched.
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  Meanwhile, Freeland O 158.31 ERA on the road.
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  He's on the road tonight. Dodgers meanwhile, 29 and 15 at
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  home, 66% win rate, third best in baseball.
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  Rockies only 14 and 27 on the road, 34% win rate, second worst
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  Rd. record in baseball. And then here's the other angle
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  talked a second ago about Atlanta being really good off a
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  loss. Dodgers are the number one
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  bounce back team in baseball. When they lose, they come back
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  the next game and go 22 and 9. That is a 71% win rate.
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  Again, the best bounce back team in baseball.
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  So big number, but getting steam toward LA.
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  There's also a 4%, nothing crazy, but a 4% sharp mush edge
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  from our friends at Juice Reel, also on the Dodgers.
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  So a big number. Maybe you have an odds boost
• 16:15
  available to you. I got dodgers -225 again, I
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  really don't like going this high with all that steam.
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  I want to be a part of it. So let's see if we can get a
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  Dodgers winner here with a a good couple of system matches
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  and sharp mush edge. So -225 Dodgers from the score.
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  That's what I'll be sweating. So Philly, Atlanta and the
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  Dodgers, let's try to see if we can scratch and claw, get 2 out
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  of 3, eek out a winning day. So that about does it for
• 16:42
  episode 543 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
• 16:47
  powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod we
• 16:49
  wrap things up and I always start first by saying thank you.
• 16:53
  Thank you for listening, thank you for tuning in, thank you for
• 16:55
  grinding in the arena with me every single day through the
• 16:58
  winning days, the losing days, the UPS and the downs.
• 17:01
  You know, sometimes in life you have a great day or a terrible
• 17:03
  day. Same thing in sports betting.
• 17:04
  But we always try to be cautiously optimistic, keep stay
• 17:08
  positive. Again, trying to make sharp bets
• 17:10
  with our head and on our heart. If you do enjoy the pod and
• 17:14
  hopefully you value the insights, I would love for you
• 17:16
  to go to Amazon.com and or sorry, I'd love for you to give
• 17:20
  the pod a five star review on Spotify or iTunes.
• 17:23
  Recommend the pod to a friend, retweet the pod, give it a like
• 17:26
  when I tweet it out at Josh under score insights.
• 17:29
  Any or all those things would be very much appreciated.
• 17:32
  Next, if you enjoy this style of sports betting breakdown,
• 17:35
  data-driven, sharp contrarian betting, you want to support
• 17:38
  your podcast host. Maybe you got someone in your
• 17:40
  life who could use some data-driven tips or they want to
• 17:42
  get into betting. Don't know where to start.
• 17:44
  They couldn't tell you the difference between a teaser and
• 17:46
  a parlay or or you know, the advantages of a run line versus
• 17:50
  a spread or a, or a money line, I should say.
• 17:54
  But any of those, those people in your life who could use a
• 17:56
  data-driven kind of seminar or a teaching situation, I would love
• 18:01
  for you to go to Amazon.com and type in the everything guide to
• 18:05
  sports betting or type in the NFL Sharp betting playbook.
• 18:08
  Those are the two books that I've written.
• 18:10
  Very proud of both. If you want to grab one or both
• 18:13
  of them, bring them the sports book.
• 18:14
  I'll sign them for you. I'll buy you a beer or ginger
• 18:17
  ale. We'll sweat some games together
• 18:19
  next. Have you downloaded Rhythm and
• 18:20
  Juice Reel yet? My two favorite sports betting
• 18:22
  apps, Rhythm, fantastic for their AI backed models and
• 18:26
  player prop predictions for game bets and player props.
• 18:29
  You also got Juice Reel. So many great features.
• 18:31
  You can sync up your sports books.
• 18:33
  Got a running report card of your action?
• 18:35
  I always like the little calendar where each day will
• 18:37
  show you your record and your green or your red, your units
• 18:40
  won or lost. Keeps you honest, can figure out
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  what you're good at, what you're bad at, your strengths and
• 18:44
  weaknesses. But also you can tail the robo
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  Jackson best bet picks if you want.
• 18:48
  I get the sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays, the shop
• 18:51
  for the best line futures and if you want to support your podcast
• 18:54
  host, you want to tip your podcast host, I'd love for you
• 18:57
  to sign up for a week or more of the exclusive all systems go
• 19:00
  best bet picks so you can support the pod for $9.99 a
• 19:06
  week. Get a full week of best bets.
• 19:08
  As soon as I bet it, it goes right to the app.
• 19:10
  So for example, you know, Philly -165 boosted, you would have
• 19:14
  gotten that alert earlier today. Now they're -210 so you can
• 19:17
  support the team, hopefully get better numbers.
• 19:20
  If you also want to do a month of best bet picks, that'll be
• 19:22
  $24.99. So any of you who are
• 19:26
  interested, hey, come on down. And those of you who have signed
• 19:29
  up for a week or more, thank you.
• 19:31
  I really appreciate it. Lastly, do you have a live odds
• 19:34
  page? Well, if you don't have one, you
• 19:35
  need one. You got to be able to track the
• 19:37
  market, identify steam, identify line movement, open the current,
• 19:41
  get the shop for the best line opportunity, find the book
• 19:45
  giving you the best price. Where again one books -225
• 19:48
  dodgers and others another's -240 again, it's a big number, I
• 19:52
  know that. But the whole point is you're
• 19:54
  finding quickly the best number available to you, which is, you
• 19:56
  know, half the battle sometimes. But if you ever look for a or
• 20:00
  ever looking for a live odds page, look no further than Odds
• 20:03
  Logic. It's the best one around.
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  I use it everyday, big fan. If you ever want to give it a
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  shot, use this special link odds logic.com/josh 123.
• 20:15
  That'll give you a 7 day free trial and 50% off your first
• 20:18
  month of service. So that about does it for
• 20:20
  episode 543 of the ASG Pod. As always guys, two final
• 20:25
  thoughts. One whether I see you at the
• 20:26
  Borgata and Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
• 20:29
  Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
• 20:32
  Connecticut at the Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park,
• 20:34
  Casino, MGM Springfield or the Nash in my neck of the woods on
• 20:38
  the border of Massachusetts and New Hampshire.
• 20:40
  They're out in the desert where the true grinders get down or
• 20:43
  Billy Walter sends his number runners with lowest juice
• 20:46
  possible is found at the South Point or sweat and sharp
• 20:48
  contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
• 20:51
  When you catch a big ticket at Circa wherever it may be, you're
• 20:53
  going to walk up to me and we're both going to get a couple.
• 20:56
  You know what usually meet at the you know, I don't know the
• 20:59
  Borgata. You know the Nash, wherever
• 21:01
  we're going to meet at the South Point, because the South Point
• 21:04
  has the hot dog cart. I believe it's still $1.50.
• 21:07
  I don't know, maybe with inflation it's 2 bucks.
• 21:08
  Now. I haven't been there in a couple
• 21:10
  years, but I used to love every time Beeson would send me out
• 21:13
  and I would host some shows. I would love to get the hot dogs
• 21:16
  at the hot dog cart at the South Point.
• 21:18
  So we're going to be at the South Point, get a couple hot
• 21:20
  dogs. We're going to scarf them down
• 21:23
  or savor them, whichever you prefer.
• 21:25
  And you're going to show me a Joey Chestnut under 73 1/2,
• 21:28
  under 72 1/2, under 70 1/2, whatever you did, show me a
• 21:32
  winning under ticket from from the 4th of July 1st. 1's on me,
• 21:36
  next one's on you. We'll pound some dogs, get a
• 21:38
  beer or ginger ale and sweat some more baseball tonight.
• 21:42
  So as always, coming off a a winning day, a losing day, a hot
• 21:45
  streak, a cold streak, a great weekend, a terrible weekend, or
• 21:47
  we're just always grinding, which is the name of the game.
• 21:50
  We just got to stick with it guys.
• 21:51
  Never get too high when things are good, never get too low when
• 21:54
  things are bad. Grind the system matches long
• 21:57
  term. Avoid the games with red flags,
• 21:59
  have the ability to layoff, don't force it, but if a game's
• 22:02
  checking off the boxes, we fire. And again, we're looking for
• 22:06
  games that are against the public with the house, with the
• 22:08
  pros flap that avoid parlays and get that COV.
• 22:11
  If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
• 22:14
  So I hope everyone had a great 4th of July.
• 22:17
  Hope you guys have a great Monday today and they'll be
• 22:20
  right back at it tomorrow. That'll be episode 544 of the
• 22:24
  All Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
• 22:27
  Good luck everybody and have a great Monday night.