Latest / The Front / What’s going on in Syria?

Transcript

What’s going on in Syria? · The Front

• 0:03
  Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: It's Tuesday, December three. The government says it will crack
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: down on sexual violence in the military and change the
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: rules for officers promotion, all part of a bid to
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: stop defense personnel self harming and taking their own lives.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: That stories live right now at the Australian dot com Doreyu.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Just when you thought you had your head around the
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Middle East, now there's fresh conflict in Syria. Dictator Bashah
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: al Assad is on a mission to reclaim the city
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: of Aleppo from rebels who seized it in a surprise
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: raid over the weekend. Assad is backed by Iran, Russia
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: and Hesbalah. But they're all a little busy right now.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Today our chief international correspondent, Cameron Stewart joins me to
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: sort out who's who and what they're fighting for. It
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: was a stunning and unexpectedly successful assault, the relative stability
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: brought about by decades of dictator rule destroyed in a
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: matter of days. In Aleppo's town squares, Rebels fired guns
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: into the sky. Music blared from vehicles as they skidded
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: across concrete and monuments to Syrian president Bashah al Assad
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: were toppled for days. The attack went unanswered by Syria's military.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Its allies in Russia and Iran finally sent reinforcements for
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: the regime to Hummer in the nation's northwest. The rebels
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: storming into Aleppo on the back of Toyota Hiluxes are
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: in Islamist militia called Hayat Tarier a cham HTS. Cameron
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Stewart is the Australian's chief international correspondent.
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: When the Syrian Civil War pretty much ended in about
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: twenty eighteen, they had a bastion up in the northwest
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: of the country and they've had their own little community
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: basically that they've run without being harassed by the Syrian government.
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: And what they did was they took this opportunity that
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: it was a great time to give a go at
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: knocking off Bashah l Assad, of course, the Syrian dictator.
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: They've been waiting to do this for a long time.
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: And so what they did was they charged into Aleppo,
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: the huge northern city up there, and they went through
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: it in seventy two hours. And I think they even
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: shocked themselves how quickly they took the city and all
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: of a sudden, you have a civil war which has
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: been reignited.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Syria's civil war began in twenty eleven, growing out of
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: the so called Arab Spring uprisings, where mass protests across
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: the Middle East began calling for democratic reform. In Syria,
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: the protesters were demanding an end to the regime of
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: dictator Bashah al Asad, a former ophthalmologist and soldier who's
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: been in power since two thousand, when he took over
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: from his father, Hafez al Assad. Russia swept in on
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: the side of Bashi al Assad, helping him launch a
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: ruthless crackdown as the rebellion ballooned into a full blown war.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: From twenty fifteen, Russian airstrikes killed tens of thousands of
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: Syrians and shifted the war in Asad's favor. But now
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Russia's busy handling its own brutal war in Ukraine.
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: So the situation has come about because of two seismic
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: events in the world. One was the October seven Hamas
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: massacre of Israelis and also Russia's invasion of Ukraine. So
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: what that's done is it's knocked out the three main
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: allies of Assad, the three allies who helped him win
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: that civil war from twenty eleven to twenty eighteen, and
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: they were Hesbalah in Lebanon, and also Iran, and also Russia.
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: And each of those allies is now involved fighting against democracies,
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: very much weakened, very much distracted, and very much not
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: in the mood to be sending an awful lot of
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: military assistance as they did last time to Asad. So
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: suddenly he now finds himself much more alone than he
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: ever was, with this rebel group advancing very quickly towards him.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about that trio cam Iran, Hesbala and Russia.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Hezbla is essentially a puppet of Iran. It's the way
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: Iran flexes its muscle in Lebanon and therefore inflicts pain
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: on Israel, on Iran's behalf. But what's Russia's role in
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: this game?
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: Russia, It considers Syria a very valuable, its most valuable
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: ally in the region. And in twenty fifteen, Russia effectively
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: turned around the civil war in Asad's favor by providing
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: troops and air support. And you might recall very very
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: vigorous and quite brutal Russian bombing of Syrian cities and
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: that really did turn the war in Assards. In fact, frankly,
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: it saved him as a president. So he's been very
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: grateful to Russia ever since. Now Russia is still its biggest,
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: his biggest supporter. It still has warplanes in the country
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: and in fact, we've actually seen some of these planes
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: being deployed to bomb Aleppo in the last few days,
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: because after the rebels took it over. But the thing is,
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: the Russians took a lot of the military support they
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: had in Syria out of Syria and brought it back
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: to Russia to be deployed.
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: Against Ukraine in the war against Ukraine.
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: And so there are far fewer Russian forces now in
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: Syria than there were before, and it really is an
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: open question as to how much use they are going
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: to be. Certainly there'll be much use, much less used
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: to Asad than they were last time.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: And what's in it for Vladimir Persian to be propping
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: up for al Assad.
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: He wants to be a geostrategic player, He wants to
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: have influence around all of Russia's region and with Syria,
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: you know, he has a base there that he can
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: propagate Moscow's interests political, strategic, economic from that base, and
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: he is He worries that if he loses Assad, then
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: Russia loses its influence in the Middle East.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: The rebel army that's taken Aleppo back has connections to Turkey.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: What do we know about that relationship.
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: Yes, it's a very shady relationship. Before this group HTS
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: which is what the rebel group is. It's an offshoot
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: of the Nusra Front, which in fact was allied to
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: Al Qaedra at one point, although they are distancing themselves
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: very much from that. They say they are a much
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: more moderate group. But they're still listed as a terror
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: group by the United States, and they are being backed
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: by Turkey, but we don't quite know to what extent
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: they're being backed by Turkey. Turkey does not like Asad,
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: it wants Assad out, but how much it actually likes
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: this group is very unclear too, because you have an
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: Islamist group that is labeled as a terror organization fighting Assad,
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: who of course is backed by Russia, Iran and HESBLA,
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: and of course is no friend of the West either.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: Coming up, the rebel militia was formally linked to Al Qaeda,
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: So is it going to be kinder to civilians than
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: side that's after the break. Presumably the enemies of Bashah
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: alas Sade, for example, the United States and perhaps Israel
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: would be glad that there's a distraction going on for
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: him now, that that Syria is now riven again by
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: civil war, and that he'll have to turn his focus
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: on defeating this insurgency in Aleppo. But what does it
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: mean for the rest of the region? Cam If anything.
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: It certainly destabilizes the region Claire. It's amazing how it's
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: been like this ever since October seven. It has spread
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: like a bushfire, fairly slowly. Obviously into Gaza. We've had
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: the warring Gaza, then we had it spread into Lebanon.
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: We've had the Hooties in Yemen being attacking and being bombed.
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: We've had Iranian bat militia in Syria and in Iraq
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: attack Israel. I mean, the region is very slowly going
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: up in flames, and it's getting larger and larger with
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: every passing month. And so to have the possibility of
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: another civil war in Syria is hugely destabilizing for the
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: entire region. And we don't know yet of course what
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: where this offensive will go. I think the rebels have
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: surprised themselves by going so quickly so far, and so
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: it's going to be interesting to see whether they want
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: to keep pushing on towards Damascus to really threaten Assad's
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: actual existence. And of course it's unclear to what degree
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: the allies of Asad will come to his aid, because
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: as we said, they are so weak and compared to
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: what they once were. So will Assad actually mount a
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: major offensive to try and retake a leper or is
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: he not strong enough? And they're the questions I think
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: in the next three or four days we're going to
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: see answered.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: Ordinary Syrians have suffered terribly under Bashah al Assad. He's
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: a brutal dictator. His regime has been accused of shocking
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: crimes of terror against his own people. But is there
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: any suggestion that life would be better for them under
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: the rebel army.
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: People are actually fleeing the government controlled areas Assyria and
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: going up to the rebel held areas that includes in
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: the northwest which are controlled by the Hts, and in
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: the northeast of.
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: Syria, which is controlled by the Kurds.
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: And the reason why they're doing that is because the
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: basics of life up there are seen to be better
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: than they are in the government controlled areas, and that
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: means very simple things like electricity and water supplies, etc.
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: They're much better organized than they are in the government
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: controlled areas, and I think that flight speaks a lot
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: to the fact that Assad is very much on the nose,
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: and that's partly because he promised to be the civil
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: war to improve the economy.
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: It really didn't happen.
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: The economic conditions across the government controlled areas are very
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: very grim, and people who have been cheering their rebels
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: as they came in to a Leppo and move further south,
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: locals have been going out and cheering them. So I
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: think that says a lot about how Asad is on
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: the nose.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: You mentioned the Kurds. That's an ethnic group that's been
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: fighting for their own homeland for many, many generations. Now
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: they're managing to run what seems like a fairly functional
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: state in the northeast of Syria. Who's backing the Curds
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: now and what role do they play in relation to
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: the other side regime.
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: Well, they've basically got the northeast of Syria. Now that
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: was sort of after the Civil war, they just occupied
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: that the government troops could not come back and retake it,
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: so it's almost like an autonomous region for them at
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: the moment.
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: Clear, even though it's very unofficial.
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: The US, though, has backed the Kurds, and in fact
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: there's US troops stationed in the eastern there's several hundred
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: of them there. Now there's no suggestion that the US
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: is going to suddenly back the curves to move against
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: a sad but they are a big player in this
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: whole equation, and you know they're sitting there and they
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: don't want to sard in power either. So there's lots
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: of opposition groups who have different ideologies up in northern
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: Syria that want a side out of power, but they
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: don't necessarily agree with each other.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is The Australian's chief international correspondent. The Family
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: Court has granted cross sex hormone treatment to a gender
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: dys for a fifteen year old born a boy but
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: who has identified as a girl since the age of three.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: It's a complex case and the judge says there's a
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: lack of legal material about whether kids who transition end
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: up with regret that's an exclusive live now at the
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Australian dot Com dot a