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Jobs Day, Labor, And Real Estate Investment · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Right now, let's get
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: some more color on the jobs data that we had
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: this morning. Data Peterson, chief Economists and centered leader of Economy,
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Strategy and Finance at the conference board, joins us Danta.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: What was your takeaway from the jobs data that we
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: received this morning. Well, yes, you know, the apparels print
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: undershot market expectations, but I still think it's a good number,
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: especially given the spread of omicron. And honestly, I think,
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: you know, the you know, roughly half a million job
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: games that folks who are anticipating may have been a
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: bit aggressive. Let's look back at December. We had many
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: people who were getting sick, um, many in person services
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: activities are getting canceled, and so it didn't really seem
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: like the greatest environment for big payroll additions. And I
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: would say that you know, any continued gains in labor
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: market indicator should be viewed constructively by the FEDS and
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: UH positive for the FED. Do you continue on its
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: path of of finishing up que paper probably by March
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: and adding rather raising interest rates three or four times
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: this year? How are you thinking about the unemployment rate
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: that continues to check lower, and then the labor force
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: participation rate. It was interesting that we heard comments from
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: Bullard yesterday saying that pre pandemic levels are no longer
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: an appropriate benchmark as we're thinking about some of these
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: job industries that we've been following. Sure, you know, the
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: unemployment rate is really collapsed. It's now at three point
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: nine percent. It's getting very close to three and a
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: half percent, which is where we were before the pandemic.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: When you look at the participation rate, I would have
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: to agree with UM President Bullard that maybe we shouldn't
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: be looking at the pre pandemic level. UH. Since then,
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: we've had a wave of retirements, many of those folks
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: to probably not clean back to the labor market, and
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: so that's going to depress UH the participation rate. We
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: also are still in the midst of this pandemic. Many
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: people are still afraid of getting infected. There's still childcare
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: issues you have, you know, over a hundred thousand childcare
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: workers that are still missing. I would suggest that with
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: all of that, we have to take the participation rate
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: with a grade of salt. So how do you think
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve is going to part the data that
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: they saw this morning. I think that they're going to
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: say that we are either very close to or we
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: have achieved full employment. Um. Look at the games that
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: we've seen just the sinse of the pandemic. Um we
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: have roughly, uh, you know, four million people let's say,
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: that are still missing from payrolls compared to twenty one million,
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: which is where we were at the beginning of the pandemic. UM.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: And I think also when you look at the details
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: of the report, we had gains everywhere except for retail
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: and I think tempa employment and so we didn't see
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: big gains in leisure and hospitality, which makes sense given
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: the fact that in person services are still being affected
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: by the pandemic, which we're still in. So I would
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: imagine that again with the labor market, the set is
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: probably okay with these numbers, and that their concerns are
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: still going to remain squarely on inflation. If you look
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: at average hourly wages, they were up seven percent of
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: the last nine months. That's that's really outstanding. And when
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: we look at the CPI and the pc deflator, those
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: measures continue to climb, and I think that's going to
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: be the focus for the said Dana. I am curious
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: though we had a Federal Reserve a few years ago
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: saying that they're going to let inflation run hot because
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: they're really focused on this new definition of full employment
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: and we're seeing the unemployment rate for Black Americans actually
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: rising now to seven point one percent, it's being led
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: by black women. Is the Fed sort of backtracking on
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: that shift that it made a few years ago because
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: inflation is turning out to be a bigger issue than
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: we thought. I don't think so. If we think about
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: the statements from policymakers, said policymakers over the last months, UM,
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: they're some of them are of the opinion that we've
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: already achieved the inflation target. Right, We're we're notably above
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: the inflation target. And that um given the fact that again,
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: if we are very close to full employment, or we've
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: achieved full employment, and many metrics for other demographic groups,
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: even women, that participation rate picked up, and certainly for
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Hispanic women UM and Hispanic males and black mails with
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: the data are better that we're still very consistent with
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: that revised UH mandate regarding the labor market and inflation.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: And again we're kind of beyond in terms of inflation,
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: and so it makes sense that the FED should be
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: focused on that right now and should look to adjust
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: policy accordingly. Dania, are you concerned at all about wage inflation?
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: We saw the year of a year gains a little
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: bit better than expected, up four point seven percent. Is
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: that a concern for you, Yes, it definitely is. It
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: certainly does reflect the fact that we have these severe
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: labor shortages. And these severe labor shortages are a slection
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: of a number of factors, some of them directly related
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: to the pandemic, others because we have an aging demographic
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: and labor shortages are probably not going to go away
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: even after the pandemic is over, and so we have
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: to be very careful. Certainly, the FED has to look
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: at the interaction between rising wages and rising inflation. UM.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: The last time we that I remember, uh share Palal
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: said that the FED didn't oddsy um a wage price
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: spiral developing, but that certainly is a risk, and that
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: would certainly factor into how extensively the FED looks to
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: tighten policy. On that note, when we are rating the
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: investment outlooks inflation, the risk of a policy error our
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: top of mind, with many more mentions than even the
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: COVID vary in. And so I am curious when you
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: think you know what is the risk of a policy error,
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: and and when do you think that that risk will
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: be behind us? Sure, I guess you know there could
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: be a number of different policy errors. The key one
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: is you know they're the FED weight too late. And certainly,
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: as you mentioned the revised policy in terms of inflation
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: and labor markets, know the FED is consistent. And certainly
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: if they were going to allow UH inflation to run
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: a little hot, they've done that. If they were going
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: to allow more patients for seeing the labor markets improve,
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: they've done that as well. So uh. The the issue
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: now is how do they calibrate um the paper, how
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: do they calibrate interest rate hikes, and how do they
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: calibrate potentially running off the balance sheet? And so I
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: think those are the big risks out there, and certainly, uh,
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: we're going to see those risks over the course of
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: this year and potentially over the course of next year. Dana,
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate getting
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: your thoughts on this job to day Dana Peterson, she's
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: a chief economist and Center Leader of Economy, Strategy and
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Finance at the conference Board. All right, let's go to
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: Tom Giblehill, founder and CEO of the Last Sound Network. Tom,
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: I know you're talking to employers out there every day.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: What are you seeing in the market. I mean, I
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: think the numbers, you know, really speak for themselves. People
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: get really focused on the glossy of oh, we've only
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: added two thousand jobs in December, unemployment up to under
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: four wages year over year increased almost five Those are
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: unheard of numbers in spite of a global pandemic and
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: the fact that if unemployment drops so low, there aren't
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: people to fill the jobs. And we're still adding two
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: hundred thousand jobs. This is not a bad sign. This
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: is a good month. And Tom, it's interesting when you
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: also talk about this week we got the job opening survey,
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: the quit rates and another record high. How is the
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: great labor shortage. What do you see? Well, the real
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: the problem with the labor shortage is COVID, period, pure
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: and simple, is that we've got a situation that no
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: one has ever experienced before. It's been going on for
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: two years. People have been working remotely, and you have
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: people due to fear due to childcare, due to school closures. Right,
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: I'm in Chicago right now, the Chicago public school system
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: is all doing remote remote school Right. We've got this challenge.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: So we're never gonna have um until COVID gets quote
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: unquote under control, whatever that may mean, a real accurate view.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: We can't compare things to pre COVID because it's not
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: pre COVID, and people are trying to find that common denominator.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: There isn't one. So to the I don't know the
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: four or five folks that have millillion folks I'm sorry
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: that have left the workforce, have they really left the
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: workforce permanently? Well, No, Number one, I don't think it's permanently.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: Number two, I think what data we haven't gotten. And
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: my my belief is, and this is purely a belief,
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: is that the majority of those people come from two
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: income households. So you've got people that we're working in
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: in some capacity, and when you look at that, because
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: wages have increased so much, there's house is making more
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: money and they don't need that delta between what the
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: spouses compensation is increased in the cost of daycare and
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: how little they were making. That's why they're pulling out
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: of the workforce. So I think you're seeing that it's
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: a variety of reasons they will come back. Inflation hasn't
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: even started to really hit yet, and we'll see what
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: happens with the strand. I mean, I think that the
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: real great equalizer with COVID has been this latest strand
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: because we're seeing a lot more cases reported, but not
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: as many hospitalizations, not as many bets, and people are
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: starting to get sick of it. And I think comes
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: spring and summer, you're gonna see labor numbers really hop
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: up on people coming back into the workforce to take
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: advantage of the economy and make money. Tom Another big
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: theme that I've noticed from most of the people that
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: we speak with is that the seasonal worker, they're trying
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: to hold onto them and make them permanent because there
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: is such a labor shortage. Are you seeing that where
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: the temporary and the seasonal work curs, they're being held onto. Yeah,
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: there's no doubt about it. Is that because what we're
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: seeing is is UH instead of seasonal spikes, we're seeing
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: this current economic boom, and that means that the economy
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: continues to grow and companies continue to have record profits.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: We're seeing even in numbers of privately held companies increase
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: and companies can't get enough people, so they've brought people
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: on its seasonal and they're trying to convert those people
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: to permanent jobs. We're seeing our attempt to perm numbers
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: people who are temporary and get converted onto permanent payrolls
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: of of our client organizations increase as companies are trying
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: to do that. Hey, Tom, thanks so much for joining us.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: We always appreciate getting your perspective when we talk about
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: the labor market and jobs numbers. UH. Tom Gibble, he's
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: a founder and CEO of LASAL Network National Staffing Recruiting
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: UH firm focus attempt Workers, contract staffing as well as
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: direct hires. Markets here trading off of the SMP off
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: about a half a percent. NASTAC once again leading the
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: way lower. Let's get more color on the jobs market
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: with Johnny Bailey, chief workforce Analysts at employee Bridge. Genie,
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: what was your sorry, Joanie, what was your takeaway from
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: the job's number we saw this morning? Well, good morning
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: and thanks for having me on. You know, today's report
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: was a bit of a surprise. I think the headline
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: number was very disappointing to only see a hundred and
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: ninety nine thousand jobs created UM. But digging into the report,
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: I will say there is a lot of good news there.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: There was job growth in many of the sectors. UM.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: We did see fifty three thousand jobs come back and
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: leisure and hospitality. We saw jobs created in construction and manufacturing, UM,
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: certainly in retail and healthcare air. However, the job growth
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: was not as robust as we thought it was going
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: to be, so UM still moving in the right direction,
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: but you know we're not. The labor market still hasn't
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: really recovered from the pandemic, and certainly we're seeing that
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: in these numbers. When we talk about a labor market,
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: and from your perspective, a lot of maybe structural shifts
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: that have undergone. We've heard from a few FED presidents
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: that looking at pre pandemic levels of employment or labor
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: force participation is no longer appropriate from your perspective, how
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: are you thinking about those who are looking for jobs
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: those who are not, and if there has been sort
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: of a structural shift where we're not going back to
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: the way things were before. Yeah, things are definitely different,
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: and certainly one of the biggest challenges we have as
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: a US economy right now is labor participation. It is
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: the biggest challenge we're seeing for businesses. They are struggling
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: to find workers and we just don't have enough people
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: participating in the workforce. It does seem that, you know,
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: many unemployed aren't searching for work right now. Um. And
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: that could be still for a few reasons. It could
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: certainly be COVID concerns, it could be family care issues, um.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: And some of them they just have a little bit
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: more of a financial cushion and they're just not you know,
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: coming back to work yet. But the jobs are out there.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: We have over ten million, there's ten point six million
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: open job postings and to only create, you know, close
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: to two thousand jobs for the month of December really
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: points to that disconnect, right. It's that true supply and
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: demand issue. The demand is there, and we just we
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: don't have a supply of people that are willing to
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: participate in the workforce. So we need to encourage people
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: to get back to work. UM. That's one thing we're
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: seeing declining rates, certainly for females and the workforce. UM.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: We're seeing that, you know, more of the baby boomers
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: that maybe stopped working during the pandemic are not coming
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: back to work. So UM, we need to figure out
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: ways to get more people participating in the workforce and UM. Otherwise,
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: you know, I think businesses are going to really see
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: the impact in their earnings and they're not going to
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: be able to produce their products and deliver their services UM,
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: certainly in the future, and that's going to impact earnings.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: In Q two and Q three of this year, Johnny
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: talked us about immigration and how that may be impacting
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: the participation rate in the job's fulfillment issue, particting on
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: the lower end of the economic scale. We've had obviously
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: a containmant in immigration, legal and illegal immigration. Is that
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: an issue that needs to be addressed, is that one
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: of the causes. It certainly is a con earn and
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: a challenge. UM. With all the immigration UM and illegal
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: immigration that we are seeing, you know, many of those
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: people will obviously becoming you know over and looking for work,
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: and they usually end up finding those jobs, right that
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: those you know, manual labor um you know, hourly jobs,
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: but they're not you know, they're working for employers that
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: aren't following the guidelines of you know, paying people legally
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: in the country. UM. There's so there's so many issues
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: with that. Certainly on the lower hourly UM wage scale.
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: We see that that will impact of course legal workers
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: in the US where UM, they may not be getting
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: those jobs because those jobs are going to the illegal
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: workers and they're taking the jobs form less money. So
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: that can certainly impact those hourly wages UM. And you
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: know the one thing I you know, I can tell
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: you from Employee Bridge, we we place you know, eighty
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: thousand to ninety workers on a weekly basis, and many
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: of them are in manufacturing and logistics UM and hourly positions.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: And of course we follow all the guidelines and you know,
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: make sure that there's a nine documentation UM. But we
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: see that there are companies out there that aren't following that.
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: You can really get yourself into into some trouble and
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: some difficulty, um, but we need to get them. We
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: need to get immigration addressed and make sure that even
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: the people that are here, you know, what are we
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: going to do about making sure that they are working
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: also in safe environments? And how do we do that legally?
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: It's it's certainly a big challenge talk to us about
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: some of the maybe the lower end wages, but really
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: pretty much all across the scale. For the first time,
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: so only in my lifetime, we're looking at inflation prints
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: of almost seven percent, and so a two or three
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: percent wage increase isn't cutting it. I'm still looking at
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: some pretty big negative real wages adjusted for inflation. Are
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: you seeing as we approach some of these big inflationary
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: numbers wages keeping up and and particularly on the lower end,
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: we are seeing wages move um a little bit more
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: aggressively than what's reported in the BLS numbers. When we
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: look at, for example, our pro drivers business, we're seeing
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: that the driver's wages are up more like fifteen to
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: sixteen or seventeen percent on a year over year basis UM,
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: so much more than we're seeing in the in the
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: report that we saw today, which I think was about
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: four point seven percent for an hourly wage, you know,
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: just across the board, UM, manufact extreme and logistics the
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: same thing. It's it's more double digit growth over the
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: last year. UM. And that is just because the market
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: is so competitive. You know, employers cannot find workers and
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: they are being forced to have to pay more on
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: that hourly rate UM for you know, manufacturing logistics positions.
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: So we're seeing a bit more movement in those areas
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: than what is being reported from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: Johnny talked to us about the union worker. We've seen
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: some strikes, some successful strikes. UM. John Deer for example,
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: just just recently talked us about the union size of
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: the labor force. Are they getting more leverage visa via
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: the employer? You know, we we don't do a lot
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: of work with unions at Employed Bridge, so I'm not
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: your best experts certainly in that area, UM. But what
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: we do see is that, UM, certainly there is a need,
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: you know, in in certain parts of the country. And
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: when I look at even like the teachers unions of
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: of what they're looking for, UM, I think there is
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: certainly a place for unions UM, and really to protect
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: the rights of the workers. UM. We've seen it certainly
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: with airlines as well, But there's UM. Many of the
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: businesses that I'm dealing with UM are not driven by
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: the union worker, and so the employees are a little
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: bit more on their own UM. And you know, we
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: look certainly to employers to make sure they're offering the
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: right benefits to their workers, that they have environments to
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: retain them, that they're paying them competitively, and we feel
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: that they're really doing that. I think employers UM are
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: focused on employee retention right now. There there's con earns
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: right if that what we hear about the great resignation
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: and that so many people are quitting their jobs and
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: employers are smart, They're they're getting smarter about how do
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: they focus on strategies to retain their workers. So just
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: as unions are trying to do that, we certainly see
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: the private employers doing that as well. I am curious
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: the way that benefits have changed. The way that companies
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: are thinking about retaining talent has changed. I remember a
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: few years ago, free snacks or at ping pong table, right,
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: we're all the rage, and now it's like, no, I
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: just need flexibility to work from home and what has
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: that shift been, Like, what is the biggest ask right
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: now when it comes from what employees are sort of
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: asking for from their employers right I know, it's so
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: funny because I remember those days to where we were
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: talking about like bring your dog to work day or
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: are flip flops? You know that, UM, and the ping
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: pong tables and all that. You know, it's that has
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: definitely changed, and you're absolutely spot on. It's all about
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: work force flexibility. UM. People want to work from home.
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: They want to be in control a bit more of
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: their hours. UM. They like the hybrid modeled but where
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: maybe they're in the office for a few days and
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: then you can work from their home office for a
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: couple of days. So flexibility has risen to kind of
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: the top of the list. Of course, they're looking for
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: great pay um and health care benefits and paid time off,
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: but flexibility is one of the kind of hottest things
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: that an employer can offer right now to really retain
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: their employees. And I think that speaks to COVID and
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: what we've all gone through over the last few years.
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know about you guys that I
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: used to be in a role where I was trying
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: traveling at every single week, right, and COVID changed that,
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: and it's it's funny coming out of it. You're like, gosh,
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: I don't want to be on a plane every week anymore.
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: And you know in the hotel rooms, LEN have to
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: sleep in my own bed. So I think they're you know,
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: we've reprioritized what's important to us, and I think the
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: workers definitely looking for more flexibility. Hey, Johnny, thank you
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: so much for doing us. We really appreciate you taking
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: the time giving us your thoughts on today's labor force
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: and labor market. Joni Bailey, chief workforce analyst at employee Bridge.
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: I want to switch gears, Taylor, talk a little bit
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: about the real estate business, particularly kind of the commercial
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: real estate business. You walk the streets of New York.
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: There's people here, but they're just not going up into
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: the office buildings. I don't know how that plays out.
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: Aaron Jodgat, National director of Capital Markets Research at Collier's Joints,
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: is here. Aaron, as we begin two here, we're dealing
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: with this only pron very and hopefully we're approaching the
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: peak here. How are you thinking about the commercial real
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: estate business going forward, Well, thank you. Uh. The the
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: pandemic is certainly challenge and one of the biggest concerns
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: with investors um we We recently did a survey of
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: our clients across the globe and the return to office
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: and subsequent variant and and an omicron and in the
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: Lake with pandemic has been one of the biggest concerns.
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: Other areas that they're worried about our rising construction costs
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: and government policy and regulations, but they're very optimistic on
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: the economic outlook. Rent growth and market liquidity. Was a
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: record year for investment sales volume, and we expect to
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: be another very strong year. When are you hearing about
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: sort of this full return to office if we ever
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: get there? Are are people looking at still leasing out
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: the same commercial space? Are they leasing out more space
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: because we all need more room to socially distant or
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: is it a lower footprint because only half the office
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: is coming back. Well, it's a mix. So in some
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: cases you're going to see companies that are continuing to expand,
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: their getting record amounts of venture capital funding, so they
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: need to scale, they need to grow, they need more space.
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: We're seeing other groups that are finding a balance of
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: remote work as well as in office work. UM. And
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: it's really going to differ by industry and by market.
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: To a place like New York will have a different
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: experience than a market like Nashville. UM. So we will
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: see differences across markets. UM. But ultimately, today when you
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: look at the unemployment rate, you look at the challenges
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: for employers to hire, they need to be flexible. Um.
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: They can't easily make a mandate and say everyone back
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: in the office tomorrow, um or else they run the
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: risk of losing some of their very important talent. And
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: today it's very challenging to replace those valuable contributors to
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: your organization. All right here in New York. You know,
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: we've since almost the beginning of this pandemic, we've seen
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: a at least it's been reported in the press. Is
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: a just a major migration from New York to Florida
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: to a lesser extent Texas. Is that permanent? Is that
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: a thing? Is that was that temporary? How do you
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: guys think about that? When you look at the real
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: estate out there, Well, when you look at migration patterns
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: over time, they've generally favored the Southeast and the Southwest,
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: and a lot of that migration comes from the northeast UM,
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: so that that's not a new trend. That happens in Boston,
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: happens in New York, it happens across the northeast UM.
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: But what we've really seen is that increased population in
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: the southeast and southwest has been a magnet for capitals.
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: Not only are we seeing new construction, new activity, more
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: jobs in those areas, investors are are focusing on that,
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: particularly on the multi family side. Multi family drove of
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: all investment sales activity in the country a record high
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: for that absolutely esta owning share of activity, and it's
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: because of that migration, it's because of the rapid rank
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: growth that we're seeing there, and the occupancies across the
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: multi family have never been stronger UM. But places like
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: New York are are starting to see your recoveries, Boston
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: starting to see recoveries. You look at the most recent
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: census data UM and that the biggest challenge has been
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: local migration, so sort of um US based migration. International
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: migration is a is a strength for these markets, but
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: overall migration patterns have been lowered due to the pandemic
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: There hasn't been as much mobility nationally as well as
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: globally in the most recent two year periods. All right, Aaron,
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate getting
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: your thoughts here. Aaron Jodka, National director of Capital Markets
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: Research at Collier's, Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast.
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews of Apple podcasts
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three and on
• 28:03
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• 28:06
  Speaker 1: the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.