Latest / Toadstool Sports / Saturday BEST BETS | Fallen Veteran | NBA & NHL Conference Finals & MLB & WNBA | 5/23/26

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Saturday BEST BETS | Fallen Veteran | NBA & NHL Conference Finals & MLB & WNBA | 5/23/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chips. The black coffee on the felt. Man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mess. Three teen poulette turned the dust
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Like they made you this man. But don't you go quiet?
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the floor. Your name steal mean
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: something on somebody for show?
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: Put the glass down, baby, look at me? Nine, hold on,
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: hold on, nothing nice now, hold on, hold on and me.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: But it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: And stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 4: Now, what's up?
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: Urbbody? It's towed back with you with Toad still sports.
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: It is Saturday? Is that what it is? May twenty third,
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: Own two on the show yesterday. Yeah, I mean I
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: told you I could not sustain this run. I don't
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: even really think either play was a bad call necessarily,
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: even though they both lost. I'm pissed.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: The over that I recommended in Saint Louis Cincinnati did
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: not happen. The game got rained out. As you guys
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: pointed out, it was raining there. So there is a
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: doubleheader today. That same pitching matchup is not going to
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: happen today. But I will have a play in that
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: double header. Anyway, the Red Sox I am fucking pissed
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: about everything about that game. The over was done almost
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: right away. The Red Sox scored four runs in the
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: first inning I'm pretty sure. Then Peyton totally had one
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: bad inning, so the over was completely gone by like
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: the second or third inning or whatever, red Sox paded
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: the lead. Okay, cool, the Red Sox are at least
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: gonna win this game. Red Sox have the way better bullpen. No,
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: they bring in it Slayton and he gives up two
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: two run on runs in one fucking inning. And then
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox lose the fucking game because they also
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: can't hit. Fuck you, I'm so fucking done with this
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: Red Sox team. They're so fucked. And then today is
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: Brian Beao, so the Red Sox are gonna lose another
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: fucking series to the Minnesota fucking Twins. Yeah, fuck you,
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: I'm so fucking sick of the shit. And then the
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: other game looked like it was gonna be a winner.
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: It looked like we were gonna split one and one.
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: We had a zero total going into the fourth inning
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: in White Sox San Francisco, and then what happens. Old
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: McDonald bought the farm, and I think the White Sox
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: put up nine fucking runs in the fourth inning against them,
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: So one fucking inning, the game goes from scoreless.
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: To being over the total in one inning.
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: Are you fucking serious? I'm fucking done with this shit, dude.
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: I should just quit. I should just never do this again.
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: I don't know what else to say about this. I'm done.
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna talk about all of these games today. I
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: what else do I have to say?
• 3:35
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna give up five plays today because that's what
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: you do. Maybe I'm on tilt because everything's going so bad.
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: Maybe I'm not being selective enough. I got three baseball plays,
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: I got a w NBA play, and I'm gonna give
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: out a play in the NBA game. So that's what
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna do here. Yeah, what else do I have
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: to say? Charles? What's up? Thanks for hanging out, mister Penzy,
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: what's up? I'm definitely a robot. Don't even remind me
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: about any of this. All right, we'll talk about the
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: double header. So you're gonna get my first play, which
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: is actually my latest play on the baseball board. But
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: you'll get that one first because I'm just gonna talk
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: about the double header first.
• 4:18
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis and Cincinnati. These two teams.
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: Now had yesterday off because of the rain out, although
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: I think Cincinnati actually had the day prior to that
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: off as well, so Cincinnati's actually had two days off.
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: So I you know, I liked the over in the
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: game yesterday. Don't really like it as much in this
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: first matchup here. But we do still have two bad bullpens.
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: Although the bullpens are rested now. Cincinnati Reds are twenty
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: eighth I arranged by Whip, Saint Louis twenty third. These
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: are definitely bullpens you could fade. Both teams have hit
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: fairly well. Saint Louis twelve. Cincinnati has been hitting better
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: recently again. Fifteen. Andre Pyante is now going to get
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: the start in the afternoon game here. He was going
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: to start the afternoon game today if they played last night.
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure he's been okay for Saint Louis four
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: point four ERA one point three to five. Whip not
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: very good though, but he's pretty good on the road.
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: For whatever reason, he's worse in a pitcher friendly stadium
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: in Saint Louis. He's better on the road three road ERA,
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: and he's actually been decent recently. He's coming off a
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: really good start against Kansas City where he held in
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: a one er and run at seven strikeouts, no walks
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: his six to two thirds. Maybe that was a little
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: bit of an outlier though, because he did have multiple
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: walks in the prior to games, but those were games
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: at the A's stadium and another one against Milwaukee, so
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: those are not that easy. Payonte doesn't look like he's
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: that bad right now. Over the course of the season,
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: his strikeout rate is fairly low, but he hasn't allowed
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: that many hits and his walk rate is somewhat high.
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: He's an okay pitcher, but he does have decent numbers
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: against Cincinnatis, so I'm going to not recommend an over
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: in this game. He's got one hundred and four at
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: bats against them to twelve batting average allowed five ninety
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: seven ops, but he has walked a ton of them
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: twenty five strikeouts, thirteen walks. He will be going up
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: against Chris Paddock, who was going to pitch yesterday. Paddock
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: will be making his second start as a member of
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: the Cincinnati Reds. His season has been very bad, mostly
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: with the Marlins seven point oh seventy RA one point
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: six y three whip. Marlin's got rid of him, and Cincinnati,
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: I guess, is down bad for pitching enough so that
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: they're like, hey, whatever, we need an arm. Paddock has
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: been awful at home this year, Like I said yesterday,
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: fifteen point eighty eight homye ray, and that was in Miami,
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: which is way more pitcher friendly of a stadium than
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati is. That's not a good sign. But he he
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: did pitch okay in his one start with Cincinnati. It
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: was at Cleveland, though, and Cleveland plays a lot of
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: low scoring games. I said all this yesterday, but I'm
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: saying it again. I don't think the Paddock is actually
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: going to pitch well here though. I just don't see
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: a whole lot to like about his numbers here. Although
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, his strikeout rate is a little bit low,
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: but it's kind of normal. His walk rate's not really
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: that bad. His hit rate is way too high. He's
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: way too hittable, and that's his problem. Put him pitches
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: over the plate. Man His numbers against Saint Louis, as
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: I pointed, out yesterday are not good. Three thirty three
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: batting average, eight forty eight ohps in twenty one at bats.
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: It's not a big sample. Seven strikeouts one walk is
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: not that bad. But like I said, his command numbers
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: are usually pretty decent. It's just that he gets hammered
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: like a drunk. I'm gonna lean to Saint Louis in
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: game one here. I know Cincinnati has one extra day
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: of rest, but both teams had the day yesterday of rest.
• 7:59
  Speaker 4: The money is agreeing with me on that.
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: Sixty eight percent of tickets, eighty three percent of the
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: cash on Saint Louis. They're actually like a small favorite,
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: which is telling you the oddsmakers are telling you Cincinnati
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: is not really that good. Although I don't think I
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: think both of these teams are not very good. I
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: think Saint Louis is definitely not as good as their
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: record looks. But in this matchup, yeah, I would much
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: rather have Payante than Paddock there, so that is that
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: would be my lean in that game. I would lean
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: at Saint Louis money line in that afternoon game there,
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out? Yeah, Casin
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: you know I got to rewatch that before it's gone
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: from a Netflix. Although I think I have the movie
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: somewhere too, somewhere on my.
• 8:47
  Speaker 4: On my.
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: Machine that I have right over here that has many
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: I don't know what could I say without I don't
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: know saying something that I shouldn't say here, but I
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: have many shows in movies. Let's just say, all right.
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: I used to do music too, but because you know,
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: Spotify pretty much has everything, so whatever, all right, Game
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: two in this doubleheader, I'm going to give.
• 9:16
  Speaker 4: Out a play on this and you probably.
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: Know what it is, because, yeah, guess what over the
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: total nine and a half like it was yesterday. I know,
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: I don't think you can find a nine on this
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: out there, but it's reduced juice on the nine and
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: a half. I know that half run is big though,
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: because nine is a key number because it breaks a
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: four or four tie. But I like Game two to
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: go over here.
• 9:40
  Speaker 4: I know it's a.
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: Little bit difficult because you don't know what the bullpen
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: usage is gonna look like in game one, but presumably
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: both bullpens are gonna see usage in game one, and
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: then you're gonna have bullpens where they've been used already
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: today coming into game two. So I used to do
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: this more often than I do now. I used to
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: go over in game two of a doubleheader because of that,
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: because of the bullpen usage. Even though it's a little unpredictable,
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: you don't know exactly what's gonna happen. But this is
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: a spot where I think you do want to do it.
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: Because you have two bad bullpens, they're gonna see some
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: usage in the first game. Both teams can hit fairly well,
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: it's a hitter friendly stadium, and the starting pitching matchup
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: to me, looks atrocious in this game. Kyle lay Hey,
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: who was going to pitch yesterday, so he was part
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: of that over I recommended yesterday.
• 10:29
  Speaker 4: He's pitching today in this night game. Now.
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: He's got a three point nine to four ERA, which
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: looks pretty good, but a one point five to five
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: whip tells you otherwise.
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: He is not good.
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: He's putting way too many guys on base. He's not
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: as good on the road. Four point twenty six roadyra
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: He looks like he has pitched well this month. He's
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: only allowed two runs in sixteen to third innings. But
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: I would say look deeper because he has nine walks
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: over that span and twelve strikeouts, so he's not actually
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: pitching that well. He's getting a little bit lucky here.
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: So I don't trust him. I don't trust those numbers,
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: or at least the surface numbers. I don't trust. Like
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: you see the number of walks. You can't keep walking
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: that many guys and getting away with it. He's given
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: up way over one hit per inning. This year's walk
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: rate is way too high as well, strikeout rate not
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: very high. He's not a good pitcher, dude, And against
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati he's not very good. In twenty four at bats,
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: five to two, strikeout, walk ratios, whatever, two ninety two
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: batting average allowed, eight thirty three ops. None of that
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: is good. And he's going to be going up against
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: Chase Petty, the NASCAR driver. No. Chase Petty is a
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: twenty three year old right handed pitcher. He's had a
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: four point seven to six ERA this season. One point
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: six whip.
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: Is not bad.
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: But he's only made one start and yet he drew
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: a difficult assignment against the Cubs, and he actually pitched. Okay.
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: They lost the game, but he held them to three
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: earned runs in five to two thirds. He kept his
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: team in the game, but he only had one strikeout,
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: two walks, and I don't really think you can trust
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: this guy.
• 12:07
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: He made two starts three appearances last year. I know
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: it's a really small sample and he's still really young,
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: but he had a nineteen point five e RRA last
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: year in a three point six seven whip.
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: That's not good. And I looked at his minor league numbers.
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: He's made eight starts in Triple A this year and
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: his numbers are awful. Like I might have to refresh
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: my memory on it, but I'm pretty sure in Triple
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: A this year, I'm pretty sure his ERA is like six.
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: So there's really not a lot to like about this
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: at all in my opinion. Like, he has a pretty
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: large sample sized to look at in Triple A and
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: he's not been effective at all. And now you expect
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: him to go up to the majors and pitch well,
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: And he did pitch okay against the Cubs. I'll give
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: you that, but I'm gonna also counter that because he's
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: faced Saint Louis before they've seen him and it did
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: not go well for him. They have eleven at bats
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: against him, a four to fifty five batting average fourteen
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: oh nine oh ps against him, three strikeouts, one walk,
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: and you can go back and see that start. He
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: actually pitched twice against Saint Louis. So he's made four
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: appearances is in his major league career. And you know
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: I always talk about these young pitchers have an advantage
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: when they're not familiar to the opposing hitters. Yeah, okay,
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: Well Saint Louis faced him twice in those four appearances,
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: and the one start that he made against them, he
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: gave up nine runs in two hundred thirty innings. And
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: it was in this stadium, by the way, in Cincinnati
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: against Saint Louis. That is not a good sign at all.
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: He got absolutely torn up in that game. Yeah. He
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: did pitch better in a relief appearance against them later
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: in the season, only two thirds.
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: Of an inning. Yeah, I'm not gonna trust him at all.
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: We're gonna we're gonna go over the total in Game two,
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: even though I know there are some question marks there.
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be a high scoring game. The
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: totals nine and a half. Like I said, don't see
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: the market read on this yet, but I think it's
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: gonna go over. Game two. Uh, since Saint Louis and
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati over nine and a half. And now now that
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: I said that game one is gonna go over and
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: game two won't, but yes, that is Game two in
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: the night game.
• 14:22
  Speaker 4: That one is one.
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: That I would I would specify starting pitchers must start,
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: probably because a lot of that handicap is based on
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: knowing that you're gonna get Leahy against Petty. Although if
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati is gonna like put an opener in front of
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: Petty or something and Petty still pitches, I still probably
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: I think I would actually still do that though, so
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: you know, maybe it makes sense to go action in
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: that game on the Cincinnati side. I don't know, but
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: I like the over in that one. All right, these
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: are not physical movies. Game two correct? All right? Yeah,
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: I mean you'll see the books tell you who the
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: starting pitchers are. So all right, Tampa Bay and the
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: Yankees in this hotly contested Al East series. This is crazy.
• 15:15
  Speaker 4: What's going on?
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: Dude? Tampa Bay has a five and a half game lead. Oh,
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: we don't have to handicap it. The game's postponed. Sweet
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: less worked for me. Never mind, there's no game today
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: between Tampa Bay and uh.
• 15:28
  Speaker 4: The Yankees.
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: It must be off the board then, right, No, it's
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: it's still on the board. Why does it say it's
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: postponed here? Then is it actually postponed?
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: Hold on?
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: Nothing is working for me here. Tampa beat the Yankees yesterday,
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: by the way, and Tampa has a five and a
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: half game lead against the Yankees. Now, oh, you can't
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: even click on it? Isn't that great?
• 15:56
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll dude, I honestly I can't even tell what's
• 15:59
  Speaker 4: going on here.
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: It looks like this game is postponed. Let me see. Yeah, okay, yeah,
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: it's not even on the schedule. You hear it is postponed. Okay,
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: so that game is postponed. Really strange because it looks
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: like the well, they're gonna play a double header tomorrow,
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: I assume, because I was gonna say tomorrow. They've listed
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: totally different starters in tomorrow's game, but those might change.
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: But all right, that game's off the board. But it
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: was gonna be Rasmussen against Weathers. Uh, just real quick
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: on that, because you know the game's not gonna be played.
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: But basically I was leaning under in that game, maybe
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: first five innings, because I don't really love the Tampa
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: bullpen right now. But Rasmussen actually has really really good
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: numbers against the Yankees, and Weathers has been decent as well,
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: So that game read as an under game to me.
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: But it's off the board, so we can see that
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: it is because there are no numbers now here, so
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: or unless yeah, yeah, the books have all taken it down,
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: so it's postponed. Favorite TV show of all time, it's
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: always been The Simpsons, man, even though The Simpsons. I'm
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: of the opinion that The Simpsons was still good until
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: about like season fifteen or sixteen, but certainly in its heyday,
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: I think it was the best show ever made. It's
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: definitely fallen way way off since then. Every show that's
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: been around for that long has just completely gone in
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: the tank because of how culture is. But I think
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: I'm still gonna say The Simpsons. I mean, it's just
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: always been that's what it is. But I mean, I
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: like Sidefeld a lot. As you know, if you watch
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: my show as long as you under you have to
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: just understand that everybody in Seinfeld is a bad person,
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: and then it is a hilarious show. Don't be like
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: any of those people. Even though I am basically George.
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: Then yeah, I mean Breaking Bad is I would say
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: the best show that I've ever seen is Breaking Bad,
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: but it doesn't have that like rewatchability because it's so
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: intense but great show that never got bad, it never
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: broke bad. Sunny and Philadelpha is also good. I've seen
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: every episode of that. Most of the recent episodes of
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: that are still pretty good if you watch like the
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: most recent season. The only bad episode in the recent
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: season I thought was the ab and Elementary cross over one,
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: because who the hell what Sonny fan watches that show?
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: Nobody's ever heard of that show out of the Sonny
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: fan base. That episode made no sense. But like if
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: you watch the the Ambulance episode, uh, that episode was
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: really really good. There were there were a few really
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: good episodes this season. The best modern comedy I have
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: to think about that, I don't know. Sunny and Philadelva
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: is definitely good though. All Right, Houston and the Cobbs,
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: we gotta get through this, man, this is a I
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: don't want the show to take that long. Plus, I'm
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: going to my parents Memorial Day weekend. Baby, I think
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna be there on Monday as well. Don't confine me.
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: The Cubs have lost six games in a row. This
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: is getting ridiculous, dude. The Cubs lost to Houston yesterday.
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: Spencer eric Getting is probably the best starting pitcher on Houston.
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: The Cubs have to break this losing streak, man.
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: I mean, you can kind of give them a pass
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: for losing games to Milwaukee because Milwaukee's good. Houston is
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: not really At some point, the Cubs they have to
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: break out of this, dude, But they are.
• 19:34
  Speaker 4: In a slump and the slump.
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: Is continuing, and Colin Ray pitching today might not be
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: the guy that's gonna be able to do it.
• 19:41
  Speaker 4: But they have a bullpen advantage.
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: Although they use four relief pitchers yesterday, Houston's bullpen is
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: still very bad. They also use four relief pitchers yesterday.
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: Houston is still ranked dead last in bullpen. The Cubs
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: are eighth, so the Cubs have a way better bullpen.
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: Cubs are fifth in offense. Still, this is based on ops.
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: Houston is eighth. Kaiwai Tang is getting the start for Houston.
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: His numbers look good, but most of these numbers are
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: as a relief pitcher two point six one ERA one
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: point one Whip uh, he's been a little bit worse
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: on the road. Three point six ROADYRA. He made one
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: actual full start last time out, and he was good.
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: He shut out Texas for five innings, only allowed two hits,
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: but he walked for guys. That's not great. But he
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: struck out seven, which is good. So there were good
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: things and bad things about that outing. But also Texas
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: is not that good of a lineup. The Cubs lineup
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: is better. Although the Cubs have not been hitting well recently,
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: and the Cubs haven't seen Tang except Conforto is oh
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: for one with a strikeout off of him, So Tang
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: does have some unfamiliarity here against them, and Colin Ray
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: is pitching for the Cubs. As I mentioned, I'm not
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: really a fan man. I can't back him in this.
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: As you will see, four point nine to eighty RA
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: one point four to three whip is definitely not good.
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: He's been way better at home, though, so that's one
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: good thing about having him on the mount here two
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: point sixty six home era, so he's been way better
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: at home. He's been really bad in his last two
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: starts against Atlanta and the White Sox, but those were
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: both road starts and this month he does have a
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: sixteen to five strikeout walk ratio, which is good, but
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: he's allowed a ton of hits. He's allowed way over
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: one hit per inning this month, so he's still not
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: really in good form here. He's allowed more than one
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: hit per inning on the season, strike got rayed a
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: little low. His walk rate isn't really.
• 21:39
  Speaker 4: That bad, so I don't know.
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: He's probably a little bit better than his numbers might suggest,
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: but maybe not by much.
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: And against Houston he is bad.
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: And twenty eight at bats three twenty one average, allowed
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: nine to twenty three ops. That's not good. I just
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: can't back him here, man, I can't do it. And
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: I believe the money is indicating on Houston. It is
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: fifty five percent of tickets on the Cubs. The public
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: still thinks the Cubs are going to bounce back here.
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: They still have the better record, sixty seven percent of
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: the cash on Houston. The Cubs are a decent sized
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: favorite here minus one fifty or so, so the oddsmakers
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: are still telling you they should win this game. If
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: I was gonna go Houston, I would limit it to
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: the first five. There's no way I want Houston's bullpen
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: involved in that, you know what I mean, And Tang
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: might be out of the game prior to that too,
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: you never really know. Uh so I'm not touching that game.
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, it's it's not really a spot
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: where I would actually want to back the Cubs, although
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: they really really need to bounce back win. I think
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: they're at least going to be motivated and generally they
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: are the better team here. Yeah, oh Abbott elementary, Yeah,
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: I would.
• 22:50
  Speaker 4: I would not recommend watching it.
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: I know I've never watched it either, but I have seen,
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: you know, the ads for it and the clips and whatever,
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: and it is definitely not funny. Sonny probably made them
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: look a lot funnier than they actually are. I'll shake
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: it off, Gerald, what's up, man, We're gonna shake it off.
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: We're gonna have a bunch of plays today and hopefully
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: the aim is to go three and two and just
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: bounce back and get a winning day out of it,
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean, And hopefully we go better
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: than that, but we'll see. I mean, I'm giving out
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: what I think are my best plays. So Pittsburgh got
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: Toronto Toronto in the return home spot and a letdown
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: spot potentially off of beating the Yankees twice. I thought
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: it was a bad spot for Toronto. They won anyway,
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: six to two, Bubba Chandler not really getting the job done.
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: The pitching matchup did look fairly good for Toronto with Gousman,
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: although I don't think he had good numbers against Pittsburgh,
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: but he's still outpitched Chandler.
• 23:47
  Speaker 4: It looks like in that game.
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: I haven't looked at the box score yet, which maybe
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: I should because I'm handicapping this next game here, but
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: that's just not how I do it. Pittsburgh used three
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers yesterday, Toronto used two. Pittsburgh's bullpen has not
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: been very good. They're twenty first. Now Toronto is a
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: little bit better than that at thirteenth, so Toronto actually
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: does have a better bullpen here and a little bit
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: more rested. Pittsburgh has been the better offense. They're tenth,
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: although they're not as good on the road. They hit
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: better at home, and Toronto is way in the tank
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: right now twenty seventh offensively, and they have to face
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: Paul Schemes, so that's probably not gonna help Toronto's offense
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: get going. Paul Skien's two point six to two ERA,
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: which went way up with his last start. Point seven
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: to one whip is excellent, though he might have the
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: lowest whip out of any starter. With you know, as
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: many innings pitched as he has, He's been basically the
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: same home and away. He gave up five runs last
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: time out against Philadelphia, but he got unlucky in that outing. Dude,
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: he only gave up six hits in one walk, so
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: almost everybody that reached base scored against them. That's pretty unlucky.
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: Seven strikeouts in that out as well. He's got a
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: twenty four to one strike out walk ratio this month,
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: and he hadn't allowed any runs in the prior to starts.
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: We get it.
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: He's skins.
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: You know, he didn't walk anybody for five straight starts
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: prior to that. Yeah, I mean he's only walked eight
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: on the entire season. He's allowed an extremely low amount
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: of hits. Strike gut rate is also pretty high. Yeah,
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: we get it.
• 25:21
  Speaker 4: Skeens is good.
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: He's got eighteen at bats against Toronto's hitters, eight strikeouts,
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: no walks, one sixty seven batting average three eighty nine OPS. Yes,
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: I expect Paul Skeens will pitch well here. I think
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: that was a blip in his last outing and it
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: was misleading as well. He's obviously way better than Patrick KORbin,
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: who was pitching for Toronto here. Four point two to
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: three ERA for him not too bad, but his one
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: point four to nine whip is not good. He's putting
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: too many guys on base, indicates his ERA should be
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: higher than that. Maybe I'm biased because I've been a
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: Corbin naysayer for many years now. He's been at home
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: though as well. Six point two to three HOMEYRA. That's
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: not good. His last two starts he didn't make it
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: five innings in either of them. It was against Tampa
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: and the Yankees. So the assignment wasn't that easy. But
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: he's not pitching well right now, dude. He's got a
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: nine to seven strikeout walk raceio this month, plus twenty
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: six hits all out in nineteen innings, and that's kind
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: of a microcosm of his entire season. His strikeout rate
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: is low, He's walked too many guys well over one
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: hit a lout per inning as well. There's not a
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: lot to like about Corbin except he actually has good
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: numbers against Pittsburgh in a big sample seventy seven at
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: bats against him, twenty three, strikeout, six walks, two aweight,
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: batting average allowed five to sixty four ops. So Corbin
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: might actually pitch well in this outing. I would not
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: want to bank on it there. There's no way that
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: I would want to back Toronto here. The money is
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: actually backing Pittsburgh a little bit. It looks like hard
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: to tell because it's only a one percentage point difference,
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: and the public looks like they're on that side. Seventy
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: seven percent of ticket seventy eight percent of the cash
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: on Pittsburgh.
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: They're around a minus one.
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: Fifty or so favorite here, depending on what book you're
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: looking at. I'm not gonna back Pittsburgh. I mean, you're
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: always paying too much of a price for Paul's schemes,
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: especially given that the team around him is not really
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: that good, especially the bullpen. I don't know, man, I mean,
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: an under first five kind of makes some sense here
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: if you actually think Corbman is gonna make good on
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: the fact that his matchup numbers are good against Pittsburgh.
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: Obviously, I don't have a problem with Skiens in this game.
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: I think I still probably would lean to Pittsburgh winning
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: this game, but you know, I don't think I would
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: want to lay that price. Under makes some sense, like
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: I said in the first five only, but I wouldn't
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: want to do that either.
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: Uh, you're looking at like three and a.
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: Half because it's a Skiens game, the full game total
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: seven and a half, so Corbin is actually getting some respect.
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: One other way you could look at this is to
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: go Toronto under their team total, go with Skeens to
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: bounce back dominate, and uh, Toronto's offense is bad, but
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh's bullpen is also bad, so that would worry me
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: as well. You could get really granular with it, Toronto
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: first five under their team total if you have a
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: book that has that, you know, But obviously I'm not
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: playing the game. Seven and a half for a full
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: game total in a Corbyn game seems ridiculous to me though,
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: Like I think that's too much respect to give Corbin,
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: even though Skiens is probably the best pitcher in baseball
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: eighty nine percent of tickets, ninety percent of the cash
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: on the under. For what that's worth, skiings with Livy
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: don she is, Yeah, she is up there as one
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: of the hottest Cleveland and Philadelphia.
• 28:52
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna give out a play on this game.
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: How about that. I thought Philadelphia was gonna win yesterday,
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: and they are a really big favorite, and I think
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: they're going to win today. But I had to decide
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: how am I gonna attack this game and find the
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: biggest advantage and a number that's not too bad here
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: because I don't want to lay minus two hundred on
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: the full game. I don't really want to lay a
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: run line here. The starting pitching looks looks like it's
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: the biggest advantage to Philadelphia here, so we're gonna go
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: first five lay the half run at minus one thirty,
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: which I saw that number at multiple books out there,
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: so I think you can get it. I know it's
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: slightly juicy, but you gotta find ways to approach these
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: baseball games.
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: I like the starting pitching matchup. I think it is
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: a mismatch. So yes, you will need Philadelphia to have
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: a lead at the end of five innings here, but
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: I definitely think they're capable of that in this game.
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia lost yesterday one to nothing. I was very surprised
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: by that They've lost three games in a row. They
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: had a rest advantage yesterday, and Cleveland I don't think
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: is as good as the record looks.
• 29:58
  Speaker 4: Cleveland coming off.
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: A sweep of Detroit, who looks like they're just completely
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: in the tank right now. I don't know what happened there, man,
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: but Philadelphia lost one nothing. They couldn't score at all yesterday.
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: I think they're gonna get back to it and score
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: some runs here, man. Cleveland does have a better bullpen, though,
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: so I'm taking the bullpen out of the equation. Cleveland
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: very rested bullpen as well. They only used one guy
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: out of the bullpen yesterday. Philadelphia also only used one
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: and I believe Cleveland didn't even use their closer yesterday,
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: even though it was a one nothing game. I don't
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: know what the deal was with that, but both bullpen's arrested.
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia is very arrested because they didn't play yesterday. They
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: didn't play Thursday either, so they did use Doran though,
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: who I believe they use as a closer. But we're
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: taking the bullpen out of the equation anyway, although if
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: you wanted to leave them in, I mean, I'm not
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: gonna necessarily disagree with Philadelphia. Full game Like, you know,
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna disagree with laying the run line full game.
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: I just think this is a little bit of a
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: better approach. But Cleveland is the better bullpen. They're tenth
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: in bullpen here, Philadelphia not that much worse, though it's sixteenth. Offensively,
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia has fallen off. They're at twenty fifth, or they
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: did rise up a little bit and then they fell
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: back down. I should say Cleveland is at seventeenth, but
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: I still don't really buy that Cleveland is actually the
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: better offense. And the odds makers are telling you something
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: like why would Philadelphia be laying minus two hundred here
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: when they're a below five hundred team and Cleveland is
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: nine games above five hundred, You know what I mean, Like,
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: it looks ridiculous to have Philly laying a price like this,
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: But the odds makers are telling you they're the better
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: team and they have the better of the starting pitching
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: matchup here. And obviously I agree with that, and I'm
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: getting that price way down by playing it in the
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: first five this way, but you need them to be ahead.
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: Slay Chacone is pitching for Cleveland. He has not been
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: good five point one six Era one point four to
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: nine whip on the road, he's also much worse five
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: point seventy nine Rodier Race. We're playing into the bad
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: of his home the bad end of his home road
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: splits there as well. He pitched well lest I'm out
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: against Detroit, but it's Detroit. And yeah, he did shut
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: out Anaheim for four innings the time before that, so yeah,
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: he actually hasn't been that bad this month. Of those
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: other two starts weren't really that good. Seventeen to six
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: strike out walk ratio this month is fine, but he's
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: allowed more than one hit per inning. Overall over the season,
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: He's allowed way over one hit per inning. He's kind
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: of allowed too many home runs as well, nine of them.
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is also too high. His strikeout walk
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: ratio is not impressive. His strike out rate is pretty low,
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: so I don't trust Chaconi. And he also hasn't been
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: good against Philadelphia. We only have twenty five at bats here,
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: but they have a three sixty average against him eleven
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: eighty five ops four to one strike got walk ratio.
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: I think they could definitely score some runs off of him.
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: And he's going up against Zach Wheeler. Zach is back, baby.
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: He's got a one point nine to niney RA and
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: point eight to eight whips so far. I know he's
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: only made three starts or whatever, four start no Exusuly
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: five now five starts my mistake. But he's been good, dude.
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: He's only made one start at home, and yes, I
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: know it was his It was actually his worst start
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: at home, So his home road splits don't look good.
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: Four point twenty six home e RA. But it was
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: one start where he held the A's to three runs
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: and six and a third innings. He got a little
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: bit unlucky. He gave up five hits, one walk, four strikeouts.
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: That was not a bad outing. So I think his
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: home road splits are a little bit misleading. Here, he's
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: allowed three or fewer earned runs in every single start.
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia's won all five of his starts so far. Granted,
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: you know he's only faced well he actually he's faced Atlanta,
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh and the A's. Those are all pretty good offenses,
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: so that's fine. He's facing a much worse offense than
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: that here with Cleveland. Cleveland's not that good. He's got
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: almost one strike upper inning, he's got a low walk
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: rate and a low hit rate as well, and against Cleveland,
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: Wheeler does have good numbers and forty six at bats
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: two seventeen average, six twenty ohps allowed, twelve to five
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: strike out walk ratio. Those are pretty solid stats right there.
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: So we will go Philadelphia at first five innings in
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: this one, minus the half run. You have to pay
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: a little bit for it, but I think they're gonna
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: get the job done here. The money's not agreeing with me,
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: although this is full game here, fifty two percent of tickets,
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: fifty seven percent of the cash on Cleveland. But that's
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: taking Cleveland at like a massive full game underdog price,
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean. And the total is really
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: low at seven. I don't know why a Chaconi game
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: is getting that much respect in the total there, because
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's very good. So we're playing at
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: you know, this is the way that I'm recommending playing
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: it first five minus half run Philadelphia. I think they
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: bounce back. There's a reason why they're favored. So I
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: don't really even agree with the market read on that game.
• 34:59
  Speaker 4: Detroit at Baltimore.
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: Baltimore won the game yesterday despite it being a return
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: home spot. I mean Detroit is just playing horrible baseball
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: right now. They can't beat anybody right now, man, So
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, Detroit looks like a team
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: you really want to avoid right now. They used four
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers yesterday, Baltimore used five. Neither bullpen is really
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: that good. Detroit's his twentieth them Baltimore is where are
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: they Baltimore's eighteenth. But Baltimore has a way worse bullpen
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: era though, like almost a run higher. So I think
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: Detroit's bullpen is actually better than Baltimore's. But I don't
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: really think that that's good enough. Detroit's offense is completely
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: fallen off. They're at twenty third, Baltimore thirteenth from Bearvaldez
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: is pitching for the Tigers here, and he's not having
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: a great season. Four point five eighty RRA, one point
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: four whip is definitely not good. He's been a little
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: better on the road.
• 36:01
  Speaker 4: Four point two to four.
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: Roady Ray his last start against Cleveland is not particularly good.
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: He walked four guys in five innings in that one.
• 36:10
  Speaker 4: That's not good. Although he held them to four earned runs.
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: He got no run support in that game because his
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: team hasn't been hitting at all. They've lost three straight
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: outings of his One of them was good, but it
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: was against the Mets that was his return from suspension.
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: But this month he's got a thirteen to seven strikeout
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: walk ratio and seven point nine to eighty RA. That
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: is not gonna cut it. That's too many walks obviously,
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: way too many runs a lot. His strikeout rate is
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: way down over the course of the season. He has
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: well below one strike up per inning. Usually he strikes
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: out more guys than that. And also his walk rate
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: is too high and he's got more than one hit
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: a lout per inning.
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: Two.
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: Valdez is not pitching well, dude, and he also does
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: not do well against Baltimore three seventy five batting average,
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: eight to ninety five oh ps in a huge sample
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: one hundred and twelve at bats, twenty two to nine
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: strike out walk ratio also not good. So there are
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: a lot of negatives lining up against Valdez here. Then
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: the question is do you trust Brandon Young for Baltimore.
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: I don't really. He's got a four point two to
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: five ERA, one point four to eight whip is definitely
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: not good. He's been worse at home five point four
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: homey RA, so he's in the worst of his home
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: road splits. Baltimore has won all but one of his
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: starts so far, though he's getting a lot of run support.
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: He pitched okay against the Yankees a couple of times
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: a couple of starts ago. His overall numbers are really
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: not good though. His walk rate is really really high.
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: Strike out rate is fairly low, but he's walked a
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: lot of guys, like almost won every two winnings, and
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: he's a lot more than one hit per inning as well.
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: So even though Baltimore is racking up a lot of
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: wins behind him, I don't really trust him. Detroit only
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: has nine at bats against him. The only four of
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: their hitters have ever faced him, Riley Green as the
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: only extra base hit, which is a double. They have
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: three strikeouts two walks against him to twenty two batting
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: average six ninety seven ops against him, so very small sample.
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: He actually has done well against Detroit. You know the
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: the read here, it does kind of point me towards Baltimore.
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: The money is coming in pretty heavy on Baltimore. We
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: got fifty two percent of tickets on Detroit I don't
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: know what public better is playing Detroit right now in
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: this slide they've been on but eighty five percent of
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: the cash on Baltimore. Baltimore is a small favorite here.
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: It's almost around to pick them price here. I kind
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: of think Over might be the better approach here, though
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: that's Oltal being seven and a half seems ridiculous to me.
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: I don't trust either starting pitcher or either bullpen here.
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: I agree with Baltimore generally, though I would lean slightly
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: towards Baltimore here, although first five Baltimore might make more
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: sense because I think Detroit actually does have the better
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: bullpen here. But Over makes some sense to me. But
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: when the oddsmakers are putting a total out there that low,
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: usually you have to expect a low scoring game though,
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: so I don't really want to do that either. But
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: the pitching matchup doesn't look good to me. Speaking of
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: pitching matchups that don't look good, White Sox San Francisco,
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: you're telling me yesterday's game went over, and then look
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: at the starting pitching match of course, this horrible starting
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup that we have today for this game, you
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: know that that means this game is gonna go under
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: this time. No, I'm not so sure about that. I
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: would not play the under in this game. Uh. San
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: Francisco has lost four games in a row that one
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: bad inning. The White Sox literally scored in one inning yesterday,
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure, and they put up nine runs and
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: won the game, scoring in one fucking inning. Yep, there
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: it is.
• 39:50
  Speaker 4: The dude, they only had five hits, do you really like, look.
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: At this game, dude, twelve hits over the course of
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: the game and thirteen runs scored. That game was such bullshit. Dude,
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: when you have twelve hits in the game, you probably
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: expect the game to be around six seven runs Like
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: that was such a misleading over.
• 40:08
  Speaker 4: We got fucked in that game. Nine runs on five hits.
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: Is unbelievable bullshit, which maybe indicates that maybe you look
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: towards San Francisco in this game. San Francisco is in
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: a decent spot here because they return home from the
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: road and lost. And you know, I talk about that
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: when a team returns home from the road and they
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: lose a game, a lot of times they bounce back
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: in the next game. Because that return home spot is
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: a negative. You can get distracted you know what I mean.
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: You have to get back to home life. So I
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: think that it could be a little bit of a
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: bounce back spot for them here, and they have an
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: actual starting pitcher at least here going up against kind
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: of a Chicago bullpen game here, so we'll see how
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: that goes. The White Socks bullpen is not good. They
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: used three relief pitchers yesterday. San Francisco also used three.
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: White Socks are definitely the inferior bullpen, though they're at
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: twenty second. Their bullpening Rara step not very good. Giants
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: have an era in the bullpen of more than a
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: run better, although the rink fifteenth in whip, but the
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: Giants definitely have the better bullpen. As far as hitting, Yeah,
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: the Giants suck. They're twenty eighth than hitting very bad.
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: The White Sox are eight. So yes, the White Sox
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: have the better offense the White Socks have. Brian Hudson
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: is listed as a starter, but he's gonna be an
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: opener here. I think he's gonna go one inning. I
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: don't think we really have to look into his numbers much.
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: He's gone one inning exactly in every one of his
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: outings for basically the entire season. He's gonna be an opener.
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: And I went back and I looked like, what did
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: the White Sox do for pitching five games ago? Well,
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: they used Eric Feedti. So my assumption would be, Hudson
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: is gonna pitch the first inning here and then you're
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: gonna get Eric Fetti for probably three or four innings here.
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: So that's what we want to look at here. Eric
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: Fetty is going to be the guy that gets the
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: majority of the pitching duties, I think for the White
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: Sox here. He's got a four point three e RRA
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: one point three whip. He's been better at at home,
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: so he's not as good on the road. Where he's
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: on the road here five point one to two road
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: r RAY, so he's not as good on the road.
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: Although San Francisco is a pitcher friendly ballpark, he hasn't
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: pitched well this month at all. Though. He's got a
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: seven point one to one RA this month, six to
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: seven strike out walk ration, way over one hit per inning,
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: and six home runs allowed this month. That is not good, dude.
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: So Fetti is falling apart after he was actually pitching
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: better earlier this year. But he is yeah, he's not good.
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is really low. His walk rate's not
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: too bad. His hit rates, I mean, his walk rate,
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: I guess is actually a little bit high. His hit
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: rate's not that bad, below one one per inning. But actually, yeah,
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: his walk rate is really kind of the problem, but
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: it's not that bad. Strike out rate is low. His
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: home runs are ridiculous, eleven home runs allowed, so I
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: guess overall is numbers kind of make him look not
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: quite as bad as maybe his overall his surface numbers look,
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: I don't trust him. Though San Francisco has sixteen at
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: bats against him, they have one strikeout and seven walks
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: against him. Is that a good ratio one strikeout in
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: seven walks? Probably not. He's also got a two to
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: fifty batting average allowed to them, but only a seven
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: to twenty eight OHPS because they have no extra base
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: hits off him, So all the walks are doing that
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: amount of damage.
• 43:28
  Speaker 4: But I don't trust Vetti man.
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: But then can you trust adren Hauser here on the
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: other side, I don't think so. He's not doing well
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: for the Giants here five point two five ERA, one
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: point four to eight whip. He's been really bad at home,
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: which makes no sense to me, but seven point three
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: to one homer ra in a pitcher friendly ballpark. Whatever.
• 43:50
  Speaker 4: Man, He's been a little bit better this month than that.
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: He's not allowed more than two earned runs in any
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: of his starts this month, including road starts against the
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: Dodgers and the AA in that horrible ballpark, So that's
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: actually good that he was able to handle those assignments
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: tough assignments, and actually the Giants won both games. But
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: if you look a little bit deeper, he didn't really
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: actually pitch that well. He's got a ten to nine
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, but he only allowed ten hits over
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: those seventeen to two thirds innings, so he was actually
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: unhittable pretty much. But he walked way too many guys
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: and his strikeout rate was low, so he's not fooling anybody,
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: So I think those outings were still pretty misleading. His
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: numbers on the season are really disgusting, like his and
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: not in a good way. His strike out rate is
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: really low, his walk rate is high. His strike out
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: walk ratio was almost one to one. That is not
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: I mean it's not quite that, but it's still bad.
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: That's not good. And he's a lot more than one
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: hit per inning. I don't truss Houser. White Sox have
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: not done well against him, other one for ten off him.
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: Five of their hitters have face and I think he
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: was on the White Sox for a little while recently
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: and actually pitched decently for them. But they have, yeah,
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: five guys who have faced him before. They have no
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: extra base hits off him, and they have five strikeouts
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: against him in no walks, so one hundred average two
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: hundred ops. I'm gonna slightly lean to the giants here.
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think the situation is better for them.
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: They got the better bullpen. I probably prefer Howser over
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: whatever the hell the White Sox are doing with their
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: pseudo bullpen fetti game, whatever the hell they're doing there.
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: The money is agreeing with me on that fifty four
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets on the White Sox. Public wants the
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: White Sox because they're hot right now, but they're gonna look, Oh, Hudson,
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: this guy is a decent looking ra No, he's an
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: opener Howser. I know his numbers aren't good, but this
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: looks like an okay matchup for him, at least still
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: don't really trust him. I'm not gonna give this out
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: as a player or anything, but seventy nine percent of
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: the cash on San Francisco here, they are slight favorite,
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: and they're favored for a reason here, So that would
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: be the way I would look. I mean, I could
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: see maybe an argument for the over here because I
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: just don't trust enough of the pitching here. I think
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: the most trustworthy pitching you're gonna get in that game
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: is probably the San Francisco bullpen. But Howser at least
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: does have good matchup numbers there and some unfamiliarity. But
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: the unfamiliarity can only get you so far when you're
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: a veteran, you've been in the league for so long.
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: Speeing of veterans, I know, I put that in my
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: title here. I'm a fallen veteran of the handicapping industry.
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: Now man, After yesterday I got taken out memorialized me.
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: But hap be more Memorial Day weekend to everybody. Hopefully everybody's,
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: you know, gonna do something, you know, have have some dogs,
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: some burgers, go out.
• 46:44
  Speaker 4: To the grill, you know what I mean.
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: Hopefully the weather will be decent enough for that here
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: I don't know if it will be, but hopefully people
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: betting on Detroit. I mean the public is definitely not
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: betting Detroit. I don't buy that percentage at all. Yes
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: the over in that game was a fluke. The I
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: didn't think San Francisco is necessarily gonna win that game
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: without Murakami. I mean, he's only one guy. He's not
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: the only guy. That's damn that's doing damage.
• 47:22
  Speaker 4: Montgomery.
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: I don't think the White Sox offense is gonna sustain
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: this level. All right, dude, we have to get through
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: these games. This is getting ridiculous. We got Minnesota at Boston.
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: I don't even want to fucking talk about it. Yesterday,
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: what the fuck you know you? Peyton totally did okay
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: in the game. He had one bad inning. They were
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: still set up to win that game, and then the Red
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: Sox bullpen totally imploded. It was fucking Slayton who was
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: the problem. It was all him. Red Sox use four
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers yesterday. But of course, because they blew the
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: game in like the seventh inning, Chapman and get a
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: chance to pitch.
• 48:02
  Speaker 4: Moron is gonna be an opener in this game today.
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: So they're gonna use him. Red Sox still have the
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: better bullpen, though Minnesota used four relief pitchers yesterday. I'll
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: give the Red Sox a bullpen edge. Still the ranked
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: third in bullpen, even after yesterday they were horrible. Minnesota
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: is horrible. They are twenty seventh in bullpen. Minnesota has
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: the better offense. They are eleventh right now. Offensively, the
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: Red Sox can't seem to beat them either. Minnesota's three
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: and one against them, the Red Sox are twenty sixth
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: in hitting, and the Red Sox are gonna have to
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: go against Taj Bradley, who's coming off the injury list here.
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: He's having a good season with Minnesota. Man, he's been
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: much better with them than he was with Tampa Bay.
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: He always showed the glimpses of being a pretty good pitcher,
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: and he's been good this year. Two point eight to
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: seventy RA, one point one to nine whip. He's still
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: pretty young. But we'll see what he's gonna look like
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: coming off the injured list here. He's been a little
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: bit worse on the road. Three point two to five
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: Rody Ray. He pitched well before he went down. He
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: only had one start where he allowed more than two
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: hourn runs, but his last start was pretty good against Washington.
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: Now he's gonna have to go up against the Red
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: Sox though, and the Red Sox are familiar with him
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: because he was on Tampa Bay, so the Red Sox
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: have faced him fifty three at batsworth. The Red Sox
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: have only done okay against him. They have a two
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: forty five average against him, which is not great, but
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: they've hit him for a little bit of power. They
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: have a seven to fifty six ops off him, fifteen
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: strike got six walks, So the Red Sox have done
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: some damage to him, and they aren't familiar with him.
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: So I don't know if this is the best matchup
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: for Bradley here, going up against a lineup that is
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: familiar with him. But he's been pitching a lot better
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: this season than the last time the Red Sox faced him,
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean. I don't think the Red
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: Sox faced him this year. Maybe they did. Let me say,
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: uh no, they did not, So Bradley looks like a
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: different pitcher this year man, so he might pitch better here.
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: But again, he's coming back from injury, which a lot
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: of professional betters don't like to play on a guy
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: coming back from injury. I actually kind of do when
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: it's a veteran pitcher because I think they might be
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: a little bit undervalued when they're coming back from injury.
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: But I'm just not gonna play this game anyway. I
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: think there are just too many question marks here. Red
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: Sox have Giovanni Moran, like I said opening this game,
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: he's been good, but he's only gonna pitch one inning here,
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: two point eight one ERA, one point one three whip.
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: But what they're gonna do is they're gonna bring in
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: Brian Beao. And you know what I've said about BeO recently.
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: Beo's not even on the depth chart, by the way.
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: So once Garrett cro Garrett Crochet comes back, if the
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: rest of these guys say health, they Bao is out
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: of the rotation. This is actually a pretty good starting rotation.
• 50:45
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox offense needs to fucking get going. Brian Beyo,
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: he's been awful. Seven point one six e R one
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: point eight whip. I'm assuming he is pitching behind Mora here.
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: I think they're gonna let Bao go our starters workload.
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: But here's the thing about Bao that I keep pointing
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: out they use an opener in front of him in
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: two games and guess which games those were. Yeah, those
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: were these two games against Detroit and Philadelphia where he
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: had really good outings in both of them. So it's
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: like they put an opener in front of him, he
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: pitches way better. And then they were like, oh, he's fixed,
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: let's have him start against Atlanta.
• 51:24
  Speaker 4: And what happened.
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he got completely blown up against Atlanta. So now
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: they're putting an opener back in front of him again,
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: and in that role he's been way better. So does
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: that mean he's gonna pitch better again? I have no idea, dude.
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: I don't trust Bao enough to Actually I would not
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: put my money on this guy no way. Like his
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: numbers over the course of the season are bad. His
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is really low, he's allowed way over one
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: hipper inning, very bad, and his walk rate is also high.
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: So I don't trust him, no, But he's been better
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: in this role as an opener, and he does have
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: good numbers against Minnesota in thirty five at bats one
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: see batting average five point thirty two OPS seven to
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: five strike out walk ratio is not good.
• 52:06
  Speaker 4: Can the Red Sox get it done?
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: I mean, the one thing about the situation though, is
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox were in a return home spot last night,
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: so that was not a good situation, even though they
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: should have won the game once they had the lead.
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: But that means the Red Sox are kind of in
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: a bounce back spot here, right because you return home,
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: you have a bad game, you lose that game a
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: lot of times, you turn it around and play better
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: in the next game. The public is backing Minnesota here.
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: Man public does not want the Red Sox. The Red
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: Sox are actually a small favorite here, so the oddsmakers
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: are telling you the Red Sox are supposed to win
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: this game. Seventy one percent of tickets on Minnesota, seventy
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on them, so the money is
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: indicating towards the Red Sox here. If Bao continues to
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: pitch well in this opener role, I could see the
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: argument for it because the Red Sox have the better bullpens. Still,
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: they're in a better situation here, and they're familiar with Bradley,
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: so you could make the argument that the Red Socks
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: actually have the starting pitching edge or whatever you want.
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: To call it here as well. So I don't really
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: disagree with the Red Sox side here, but I don't
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: want to do it. And then there are also probably
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: some arguments towards a first five under here. The total
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: is higher than it was yesterday. It's at eight, so
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: the first five is probably around four, so you get
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: a better number on that if you think Bradley will
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: do well the Red Sox, if you think they'll be
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: able to actually get a decent appearance from Bao, there
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: might be an argument for a first five under there,
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: but it's it's not gonna be anything I'm gonna do.
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: I'm staying the hell away. The next game will be
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: my last baseball play. So we have a lot of
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: Actually we have two afternoon games. The first play that
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: I gave out is actually a night game, as I said,
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: which is that Saint Louis Cincinnati Game two. This game,
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: this is you know, you know, it wouldn't be a
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: day you know, it wouldn't be a day during the
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: baseball season with me if I didn't have an under, right,
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: we're gonna go Mets Miami under eight in this one.
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: It looks like it was seven and a half at
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: a lot of places, but I found an eight at
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: a decent price there. Maybe it's not even worth paying
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: the extra for it because seven and a half is
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: really the seven is the keyer number, so the difference
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: between seven and a half and eight is kind of minimal.
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: But I found it at a decent price on like whatever.
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: I like this. Though both teams are pretty good pitching wise,
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: This is like a really good pitching matchup. The total
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: to me seems like it's skewed a little bit higher
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: than maybe it should be here. I think these pitchers
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: might not be getting enough respect here. And you're looking
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: at two offenses that aren't really that good Mets, especially,
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: two bullpens that are pretty good, and a pitcher friendly ballpark.
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: So a lot of things make this game look like
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: an under here. Miami did use three relief pitchers yesterday,
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: but they do have a pretty good bullpen. The Mets
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: also used three, but they use in long relief. It
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: was a Tobias Meyers opener thing, so there better relievers
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: are available. At least Mets have been a pretty good bullpen.
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: They're at ninth and Miami's at sixth, so we got
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: good bullpens. We have offenses that have not been that
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: good Miami nineteenth, Mets dead last as usual, thirtieth, So
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: that all looks good, and then we have what I
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: think is a good starting pitching matchup. Freddy Perrault is
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: going for the Mets. He's having a pretty typical season
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: for what you would normally get out of him, a
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: three point three to one ERA, one point two five whip.
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: He always has kind of a high walk rate, but
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: the rest of his numbers are usually pretty good. He's
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: been good on the road this season two point twenty
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: five Roady Ray, so he's in the better of his
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: home road splits this season. He's allowed no more than
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: three or in runs in any outing since his first
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: outing of the year, so he's pitching quite effectively. His
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: team has won his last three games, which is really
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: saying something when it's the Mets, but they actually backed
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: him up with a ton of run support in those games.
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: But we don't need that here. The one concern is
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: his walk rate is crazy high, but that was because
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: he walked six guys in his last outing against the Yankees,
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: and I know that's not good, but he held them
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: to two hits in five innings and that was one start.
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: You could argue that was a little bit of a blip.
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: I know he tends to walk too many guys, but
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: usually he's not walking six in a start. You look
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: at his overall numbers, he's basically got one strikeout per inning,
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: which is good. He's allowed well below one hit per inning,
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: and his walk rate is Yeah, his walk rate is
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: too high, obviously, I'm admitting that. But the rest of
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: his numbers are pretty good, and we've seen what he's
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: done throughout his career. He's pretty good, and I think
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: he can handle a Miami lineup coming off a really,
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: really difficult task against the Yankees, this will be a
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: step down in class for him, and he's been pretty
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: good against Miami in thirty five career at bats two
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: hundred batting average, allowed six to ninety two ops. Not
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: bad strikeouts in eight walks, but five of the walks
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: are Morell, so it looks like he kind of just
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: pitches around Morell.
• 57:06
  Speaker 4: So it's not all his wildness year. So I'm fine
• 57:10
  Speaker 4: with that.
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: And then I actually think we might have the better
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: pitcher on the other side, Max mey Or even though
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: Peralta is a solid pitcher, Meyer is having a really
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: good season for Miami. Two point eight five ERA, one
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: point one two whip. You know, he's been a guy
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: that I've liked to play on. I gave out a
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: play on Miami with Meyer on the mound, I think
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: two starts ago, and then he I think he beat
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: the Braves last time out too. He's been better at home,
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: so we have the better of both pitchers home road
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: splits here. He's got a two point one six home
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: e RA. That's good. He shut out the Braves last
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: time out and they didn't overwork and he threw in
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: the nineties. So that's basically what he's been doing through
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: every start, so I think that's fine.
• 57:51
  Speaker 4: Miami's won his last four outings.
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: It's actually a really good sign that he was able
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: to pitch really well against a hot hitting lineup like
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: the like the Braves. That's a good sign. And that
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: was at home as well. His overall numbers on the
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: season are good.
• 58:06
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: He's got a really low hit rate, his walk rate
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: is not too high. His strikeout rate is also high,
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: so everything looks pretty good for him here. His recent
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: numbers are pretty much in line with that as well.
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: He's still continuing to pitch well. He's allowed more than
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: two earned runs only three times this season, more than
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: three only once, and he's never allowed more than four
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: earned runs this entire season. And he's got good numbers
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: against the Mets, but they also haven't seen that much
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: of him. They have five hitters who have faced him,
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: one extra base hit, a double from Ventos. They only
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: have thirteen at bats against him, a one to fifty
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: four average, four forty five ops, three strikeouts, one walk.
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: So I think Meyer sets up well here as well.
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: I like the under here. That's where we're going. Yeah,
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: I mean pretty much everything lines up for me on
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: this one to be an under. I like it. We
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: have eighty nine percent tickets, ninety percent of the cash
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: on the under here. The totals mostly seven and a
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: half juiced to the over. But I think you can
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: find an eight at some books. There is one at
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: the book that starts with the F and sells bad
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: quality merchandise, so you can find that there. I think
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: multiple books might have it. I think I've found this
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: at one of the other books. I forget which one, though,
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: but I would also still go under seven and a half.
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: But again, seven and a half at plus money is like,
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: I don't know, it just seems like you should try
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: to find an eight somewhere. But whatever, I mean, I
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: agree with either way. Eighty eight percent of tickets, ninety
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the under, and the money's
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: coming in towards Miami. For what it's worth, fifty five
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets, seventy one percent of the cash on Miami.
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: They're a very small favorite here. I don't disagree with Miami.
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: I think Meyer might actually be the better of the
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: two starters here at this point, and Miami. You know,
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think Miami is generally the better team,
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: but they've been the better team this year at least.
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: But I'm not focusing on the side here, man, I
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: don't have a good read on the side. I like
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: the game to go under. Tobias. Yeah, that's right, Tobias.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: Arrested Development, dude, Modern Comedy's Arrested Development is one of
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: the best. Like the writing and Arrested Development is so good.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 4: Hobo Chili's Revenge, what's up? Man?
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out. All right, let's get through the
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: rest of this stuff. I'm gonna take a break shortly.
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: We'll talk about Seattle Kansas City here. I thought Zach
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: was gonna show up for this Kansas City analysis here.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: This game is on Fox Sports one. By the way,
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: I don't know why is this game televised.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: Kansas City lost tune and nothing yesterday. They've lost four
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: in a row. They were staying at home throughout all
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: of that. Maybe they do bounce back here, but they're
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: not playing well right now. And Seattle, I believe, is
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: the better team, which is why they're favorite on the
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: road here. So the odds angers are telling you Seattle
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: is the better team here. And yes, Seattle has some
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: pretty distinct advantages here, like the bullpen. Kansas City's bullpen
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: has not been good. They're twenty sixth Seattle is seventeenth,
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: but they have one of the best bullpen er rays,
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: so Seattle's bullpen is definitely better. As far as the
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: usage is concerned, Kansas City used three arms out of
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: the bullpen yesterday. Seattle also used three, but Seattle did
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: use some of their better relief pitchers to finish the
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: game off. So Seattle doesn't have their high leverage arms
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: necessarily available here. But I still think they have the
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: better bullpen offensively, Kansas City's dropped all the way to
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: twenty third and Seattle's twenty second. I think Seattle may
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: indeed be the better hitting team here, and I think
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: I prefer Seattle's starting pitcher here as well, George Kirby.
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: He's kind of been their best starter this year. Man.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: He's been good three point four to five r ray,
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: one point one to eight WHIP. He's been good on
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: the road two point nine to two roadyr ray. You know,
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: Seattle usually their starting pitchers are better at home. This year,
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: a few of them have been better on the road,
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: including Logan Gilbert, who I think pitched well last night.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: George Kirby is another one of them. Kirby gave up
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: six runs last time and against San Diego, but I
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: think that was a misleading line there because he only
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: allowed six hits and two walks and had six strikeouts.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: Basically everybody that reached base scored against him, so I
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: think that was a little bit of an outlier result
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: for him. His overall numbers are good, He's a lot
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: few of them one hit per inning, his walk rate's
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: pretty low, and he's got his strikeout rates not really
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: that high. He also induces a lot of ground balls.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: He's pitched well though, Like I trust Kirby in the
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: majority of situations, and he does do well against Kansas City,
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: really well.
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 4: Actually, he's got sixty two at bats against him.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: He's held him to a two ten average, five point
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: thirty two oh ps, twelve strikeouts and no walks. Those
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: are quite good numbers for that size sample there. So
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: I think Kirby has a good matchup here. He looks
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: like he should do well here. He'll be opposed by
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: Steve even Coleck, who I don't like as much. He
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: has much smaller sample size to look at here though.
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: He's got a four point twenty four ERA, but a
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: one whip is pretty good. He's had one bad outing
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: against the White Sox, but his other two starts have
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: both been pretty good. Twelve to four strike out walk ratio,
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: thirteen hits allowed in seventeen innings, so not a high
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: strikeout ray, but the rest of his numbers are pretty good.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 4: Not a lot of walks, not a lot of hits.
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: But he's faced you know, he's basically I don't know, well,
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: he's facing the White Sox and Saint Louis on the
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: road I guess you could argue both of those lineups
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: are actually fairly good against Seattle. He does have decent
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: numbers in twenty six at bats five one strike out
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: walk ratio two thirty one average seven to twenty one ops,
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: so colec might actually pitch well here as well. There
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: are some arguments for a first five under here. The
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: money is not really agreeing ninety one percent of tickets
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: eighty seven percent of the cash on the under, but
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: that's full game at eight and a half. I would
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: not go full game is I don't like Kansas City's bullpen,
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: and Seattle did use some of their best relievers yesterday
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: as well. First five under makes some sense to me
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: here though, with this starting pitching matchup. It doesn't look
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: like a bad starting pitching matchup here, but I think
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: I trust Seattle a little bit more here in Kirby Plus,
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: I think I still trust their bullpen a little bit
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: more so. I also lean Seattle, although Kansas City might
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: be in a bounced back spot. A lot of times
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: when a team gets shut out at home, they will
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: bounce back in the next game. We have fifty eight
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: percent of the tickets on Kansas City fifty seven percent
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: of the cash on Seattle, but you're laying a bit
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: of a price for it at about minus one thirty five.
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 4: Maybe it's justified.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, the oddsmakers are telling you Seattle is the
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: better team here, and I do agree with that, So
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: I don't really disagree with the Seattle side there. I
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: think maybe first five under is a little bit more
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: preferable though. All right, and then we have four games
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: left to talk about. I don't have any plays, and
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: the rest of them. I already talked about the game two,
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: which we have a play on, which by the way,
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: is on Fox Saint Louis and Cincinnati.
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 4: I gave out the over as a play in that game.
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: We'll talk about the other Fox game, the one that
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: everybody's actually gonna watch, Dodgers Brewers, and then the rest
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: of these games in a second when I get back.
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: And then I got other plays. I have two basketball
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: players to give out, so I'll be back. Yeah, all right,
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: I'm back. H Uh you Sick and Verhoven, No, I don't.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: I don't know anything about fights, man. I can look
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: at the odds for and try to figure something out.
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, you Sick is an insurmountable favorite. So yeah,
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: I mean he's going to win. He's minus twenty five hundred,
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: So it's as simple as that. I don't know if
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: there's any you know, I mean, there might be some
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: way to approach that fight, like if I don't know
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: what their styles are. I don't know anything about these fighters.
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 2: I don't know if the favorite there is like a
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: knockout guy, like maybe getting a cheaper price on him
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: to win in a knockout or something like that is better.
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: But no, I mean it looks almost unplayable to me
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: when you have a favorite that's that heavy, they're just
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: gonna they're gonna win. It's as simple as that. Okay,
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: you know more than the than the odds makers do. Obviously,
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: all right, we have a Dodgers Milwaukee on Fox. Obviously,
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: this is the game on Fox that everybody's gonna watch.
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: Nobody's gonna watch Cards, Reds. This is a big game
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: and Milwaukee is a solid team. Dodgers I still think
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: of the top team in baseball. Milwaukee did win yesterday.
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: You know, I don't really think Robleski is that good
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: for the Dodgers. I think he did struggle a little
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: bit in that game could be a bounce back for
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers here because they are a they're a good team.
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee was in kind of an ify spot yesterday returning
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: home from sweeping the Cubs, but they still got the
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: job done. So maybe there's like a delayed let down
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: here for Milwaukee. But the problem is, if you want
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers here, you have to back Roki Sasaki. But
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 2: maybe you can, which I'm gonna talk about in a minute.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: The Dodgers they have a pretty rested bullpen here. They
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: didn't play on Thursday. They only used two guys out
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: of the bullpen yesterday Milwaukee's three after not playing on Thursday,
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: So Dodgers have a little bit of a rest edge there.
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: Their bullpen has been really good, shockingly, Uh, Dodgers. I
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: think I have the best bullpen. Yeah, ran no second
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: to the Rangers. Dodgers are number two in bullpen Whip
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 2: as well. They're a really good bullpen right now. Milwaukee's
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: is also good, the ranked twelve, so we do have
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 2: two good bullpens here. Dodgers are number two in offense
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: right now, right behind the Braves, very close between the two,
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: and Milwaukee has been moving up. They are sixteenth now Offensively, Sasaki,
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: like I said, is pitching for the Dodgers yere. His
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: overall numbers are bad five point zero nine y r RA,
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: one point four or five WHIP. He hasn't really been
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: able to take off as a starter. His home and
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: road splits are pretty insignificant. By the way, it doesn't
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: really matter, but he is actually starting to pitch well
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: as a starter. All three of his starts this month
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: have actually been good. Two of them are against bad
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: teams San Francisco and Anaheim, and I actually think Saint
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: Louis is not that good either, but their offense is
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: pretty good. But he's It is a good sign that
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: he is starting to pitch better as a starter. He's
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: got a seventeen to three strikeout walk ratio in three
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: point five ERA this month, and his allowed fewer than
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: one hitp per inning. That is good, like he's actually
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: starting to potentially get it.
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 4: Going as a starter.
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 4: His overall numbers are not great.
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: His strike cut rates fine, almost one per inning, but
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: some of this is coming out of the bulpen as well.
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: I think his walk rate is too high and he's
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 2: allowed over one hit per inning, which is also not great,
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: but again he is starting to pitch a bit better here.
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: His numbers against Milwaukee are not good, but it's only
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: in six at bats. They have six hitters who have
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 2: faced him. They have one walk, no strikeouts against him,
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: three point thirty three average nine to twenty nine ops.
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 4: It's such a small sample.
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't want to say he should throw
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 2: it out though, but I don't know. Sasaki might actually
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: pitch okay here there is the chance of that. And
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: then Milwaukee has Robert Gasser listed as the starter here.
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 2: He's been okay. I think he's only made like one
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: he's he only made one start so far. I don't
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: know he's got a four point five yarra one point
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 2: two to five whip.
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 4: Yeah, he only made one start so far. They didn't
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 4: want to.
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: Overwork and they let him go four innings against Minnesota.
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 2: He was okay. He gave up three hits, two earned runs,
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 2: two walks, three strikeouts. I think Gasser is an okay pitcher,
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: like we've seen. He has numbers that he accumulated over
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: the past two seasons, and he was decent during that span.
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: He's not a strikeout guy though, Like I said, I
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: already made the joke in his previous start when I
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: handicapped it. He's not a Gasser. He doesn't throw gas,
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 2: but his numbers overall have been pretty decent, Like he
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: doesn't walk guys typically against the Dodgers, though they actually
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: have faced him before. They have six hitters who have
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: faced him, five at bats, two strikeouts, one walk, six
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: hundred batting average, and two thousand and fourteen oh ps
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: against him. I mean, those numbers are unsustainably high, but
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: Gasser has not done well against the Dodgers, So looking
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: at all that, I think there are some arguments for
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers here.
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 4: Man. The money is coming in on the Dodgers, their
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 4: minus one.
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: Twenty or so, But I still don't know if you
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 2: can justify Sasaki being favored like that on the road
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: against a good team.
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 4: But the money is coming in that way.
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 2: Sixty three percent of ticket, sixty six percent of the
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 2: cash on the Dodgers. I mean, this game could be
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: potentially an over. I know both bullpends are good, but
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 2: there is the chance that both starting pitchers do struggle here,
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: and you got two offenses that definitely can hit and
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: the totals at nine. So it's pretty high for a reason.
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 2: Both pitchers don't really have good matchup numbers here, so
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 2: over is a potential way to look at that game.
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 2: I lean, yeah, I mean over might be the better
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: approach there, but I do lean to the Dodgers slightly
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: in that game.
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 4: But not a strong opinion from me.
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 2: As at San Diego, this one has some interesting components
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 2: to it. San Diego won yesterday seven to three. San Diego.
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 2: San Diego continues to overperform in my opinion because their
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: offense has not been good. Their bullpen is good, but
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: they use a lot of their better relievers yesterday that
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 2: they did not use their closer. But their bullpen is
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: definitely better than the A's bullpen. A's only us two
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers yesterday, though, so the rest kind of negates
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: that a little bit. But San Diego's rank seventh, The
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 2: A's are twenty fourth in bullpen here. The A's are
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: the better offense by far their number six San Diego
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 2: twenty ninth. We're in a pitcher friendly park here. JT.
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: Ginn is pitching for the A's and if you remember
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: what I said after Ginn's last start, this could be
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 2: a bad situation for him. Here. He's obviously having a
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 2: good season two point nine to eighty RA one point
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: seven whip. I'm not so sure that I really want
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 2: to fade him here. He's also been really good on
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 2: the road, which makes sense. He struggles in that horrible
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 2: as stadium, but then when he goes on the road
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: he pitches a lot better. One point six to seven
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 2: Roady Ray and San Diego is a pitcher friendly ballpark
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 2: as well.
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 4: But the problem is, he just almost had a no hitter.
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 2: He was great against Anaheim last time out. They left
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 2: him in to try for the no hitter, and he
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 2: gave up a hit and then a home run and
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: the game was over and they lost. So he went
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: from having a no hitter to losing the game two
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 2: to one in two batters. That's not good. And that
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 2: was also the first time he threw over one hundred
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: pitches this season, so that I also don't love that
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: when a guy that usually doesn't throw that many pitches,
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: although he did throw in the nineties the previous two starts,
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 2: so they did ramp him up to that. But I
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 2: think he could be in a hangover spot here. Man,
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 2: when you get that close to a no hitter, like
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 2: that usually you like, I mean, obviously you can't possibly
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: pitch as well.
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 4: As that again, but I think you do.
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: Wind have been a bit of a letdown spot after that,
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: and he could be in a bit of a hangover
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: or whatever after throwing that many pitches, So I don't
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 2: like that. I think he's in a bad situation here.
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 2: San Diego only has two hitters have ever faced him before,
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: but they are three for four offen with a home
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: run from Sheets, no strikeouts, and no walks here, not
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: Sheets the gas station. So yeah, Gin might be fatable here,
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 2: but he is unfamiliar to San Diego's offense as well,
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: and they are not a very good offense either. But
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: I think he sets up kind of negatively here. Lucas
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: Giolito will be pitching for San Diego. He's making his
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: second start with the Padres here after they picked him up.
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: He was a free agent and no team wanted him.
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 2: Red Sox fans were complaining they got rid of him,
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: but I'm like, dude, Gilito would not even be in
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox starting rotation right now. All of the
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: Red Sox starters are better than him, and I think
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 2: his numbers last year were misleadingly good. This year. He's
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: got a five point four ERA point eight whip is good.
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: I mean you have to dig into what happened in
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: that start. Well, he got a good draw because he
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: was pitching in a pitcher friendly ballpark, but he is
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: today too. That was against Seattle. He one hit them
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: through five innings, so that is good obviously, but he
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: also walked three guys and he allowed three runs, which
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: is maybe a little unlucky that all the guys that
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: reach base scored, But three walks is not good. Even
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: though he was pretty unhittable, he was a little bit
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 2: wild three strike cuts as well.
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 4: Now, it was his first start of the season. It
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 4: was his first start.
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: Since last year in the Major so maybe he does
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: settle down a little bit and pitch better here. He
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 2: does have good numbers against the A's thirty four at bats,
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: two h six batting average, allowed five to ninety ops,
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: sixteen to six strikeout walk ratio. I think I do
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: lean to San Diego here. It's not going on my card.
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: The money's coming in in the A's, but I don't
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 2: think I agree with that, although I think San Diego
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: is overrated though, like again, I don't think they're as
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 2: good as their record looks, but I think they have
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 2: the better bullpens still, and I think the pitching matchup
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 2: sets up a little bit better for Giliedo here. Seventy
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: two percent of tickets eighty six percent of the cash
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 2: on the A's here, so the money is coming in
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: on the a's. San Diego's around minus one ten. Again,
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: it's not on my card. You could make an argument
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: maybe if like at first five under here or something,
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: if you think gin will actually continue to pitch well.
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 2: Like his matchup numbers are such a small sample you
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 2: might be able to kind of ignore them. But I
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: think he is in a personal letdown spot here though,
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 2: and I would probably prefer Gilido now that he got
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 2: one start under his belt, even though I don't think
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 2: he's really that good.
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 4: Texas at Anaheim.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: Anaheim won nine to six yesterday, Texas giving him a
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 2: lot of runs Man and actually scoring a lot of
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: runs as well. Texas has higher scoring games on the
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: road Man. Their home games are extremely low scoring, their
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: road games tend to be a bit higher scoring. Texas
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: used three relief pitchers yesterday. They are they significantly better
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 2: bullpen though, Anaheim used four. Texas is the best bullpend
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: ERA and the ranked fifth in WHIP. They are one
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: of the top bullpens. Anaheim is one of the absolute worst.
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: They're twenty nine, so this is one of the biggest
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 2: bullpend disparities you can get here. Hitting wise, Anaheim has
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: fallen off as well. They're down to twentieth and Texas
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: is actually seventeenth. I don't like Texas hitting though, but
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 2: right now the ranks slightly better than Anaheims.
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 4: Nathany Evaldi's pitching for Texas.
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: You're gonna look at this starting pitching matchup, mean, it
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: looks like a complete mismatch, but I'm not entirely sure.
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 2: I would say that Nathany Evaldi is the name that
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: everybody knows, and he is pitching well again this year
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 2: after he was off to a shaky start this season.
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 2: He was really good last year, but he is starting
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: to pitch really well again. Three point six two ERA,
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: one point one five WHIP. He's been a little bit
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: better on the road, believe it or not, three point
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: five to three road ERA, even though home is more
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: pitcher frontly for Texas. He's been really good in three
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 2: straight starts He's gone at least seven innings in all
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 2: three and allowed one ear run total against the Yankees
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 2: twice and Houston, but he historically dominates the Yankees. But
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 2: I think his numbers matchup wise are actually bad against Houston,
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 2: and he still pitched really well in that one too.
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 2: He's been really really good over that span twenty three strikeouts,
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: three walks, and he's allowed twelve hits in twenty two
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 2: innings as well.
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 4: He's pitching great right now.
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: Over the course of the season, his numbers are good
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: as well, over one strike up per inning, below one
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: hit per inning, low walk rate.
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 4: He's allowed ten home runs.
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: Which is a little concerning, but he's only allowed one
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 2: over those last three outings against Anaheim. He's got good
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: numbers here as well, in seventy eight at bats two
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: five batting average, five to sixty one ops, twenty two
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: to seven strike up walk ratio, but four of the
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: walks are Trout, so obviously he was kind of pitching
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: around Trout. Trout doesn't hit him particularly well though, and
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 2: strikes out a lot against him, so Ivaldi does set
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: up to pitch pretty well here, and he is in
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 2: good form right now. Walbert Urania, the young guy pitching
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 2: for the Angels here.
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 4: He's actually been decent.
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 2: He's starting to pitch a little bit better, and he's
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: been good at home as well. He's got a two
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 2: point seventy RA one point three to five whip is
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 2: not that good, but he's he got a one point
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 2: five to seven home ray, and like I said, he's
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 2: pitched well recently, like this month, he's made four starts.
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: He has a one point six four ERA. His walk
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: number is a little bit high, but it's been getting
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 2: lower with his last couple of starts.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 4: Seventeen to nine.
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 2: Strikeout walk ratio this month, but only eleven hits a
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: lot in twenty two innings. That's pretty good. Three of
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: those four starts coming at home, and he did face
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 2: a couple of good lineups in there, the White Sox
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: and the A's. He's pitching pretty well right now, dude,
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 2: except you do have to worry about the walks a
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 2: little bit. Over the course of the season, it's pretty
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 2: much the same. His strikeout rate is decent, his walk
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 2: rate is clearly too high, but he's allowed pretty few
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 2: hits as well. I think he's not that bad, dude.
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 2: He's getting you know, acclimated to the majors and whatever.
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: And he's got another a little bit of an advantage
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 2: here because Texas has never faced him before. So when
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 2: these young talented pitchers go up against these opposing lineups
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: a lot of times, they will have a little bit
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: of an advantage there. So that's not bad. So I
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: think this game looks like an under type of game here.
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: We don't really see the market read on that Texas
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: is about a minus one forty favorite. Here, I think
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 2: you're paying a little bit of a price for REVOLDI
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 2: Here the money is fading Texas, which tells you that
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 2: the professional money seems like they trust ran Ya a
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: little bit here eighty three percent of tickets fifty nine
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on Texas. I think I would
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 2: lean under. I think that would be the way I
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 2: would look at this game, because I think both starting
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 2: pitchers might actually do okay here. But I would limit
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 2: it to.
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 4: The first five innings though.
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 2: You don't want Anaheim's bullpen in any sort of under,
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: so I think first five under is probably the best
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 2: approach in that game. It's not on my card or anything,
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: but I think that's the way I would lean in
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 2: that game. Probably you can find a four, maybe even
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 2: a four and a half on that. And then Colorado
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: at Arizona, which you would think this would be a
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 2: high scoring series, but the first two games have been
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: extremely low scoring. I mean, we have two teams that
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: are not particularly good at pitching and both teams playing
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 2: hitter friendly environments.
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 4: So I don't know what's going on here.
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 2: But we had a two to one Arizona win the
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 2: other day and then yesterday a three two Colorado win.
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 2: I think both teams will be focused here. It's a
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 2: divisional series. They split the first two games. Arizona used
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: four guys out of the bullpen yesterday Colorado used two,
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 2: so Colorado's is a little bit arrested. But Arizona is
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen. They're ranked fourth, although, as I always
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 2: say every single day, their ray is a lot worse
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 2: than that, so I don't think they're actually the fourth
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: best bullpen. I think they're kind of a mediocre bullpen.
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 2: Colorado is probably slightly worse though they're at nineteenth and
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 2: they still have a worse ray than Arizona does as well.
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: Arizona started to hit better again. They're at thirteenth in
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 2: offense Colorado twenty first So Colorado, they've been a team
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 2: that usually can at least hit at home, although they're
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: not at home here, but they aren't another hitter friendly ballpark,
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 2: but their offense has struggled recently. Michael Lorenzen is getting
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 2: the start here for the Rockies. He's having not a
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: good season, a rocky season. H seven point zero three ERA,
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 2: one point nine to one whip that is really bad.
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 2: But he's at least been serviceable on the road, which
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 2: makes sense. He pitches really bad at home in Coursefield.
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 2: He's been okay on the road with a four point
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: two toy six road ray, although this is another hitter
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 2: friendly ballpark, and he just faced Arizona in Coursefield though,
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 2: but they did litle. They did light him up. They
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: got six earned runs in four and two thirds innings
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 2: off him, nine hits, and he also walked three.
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 4: That's not good. His walk numbers bad.
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: He's got eight walks and twenty five hits allowed with
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: twelve strikeouts in fourteen to two thirds innings this month,
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 2: including a really bad start at home against the Mets.
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 2: That's not good. But his one road start was against Pittsburgh,
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 2: who do hit well at home, and he pitched well
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: in that outing, so you can kind of see the
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 2: home road dichotomy there.
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 4: He is definitely better on the road.
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 2: His overall number, the really bad number here is I
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 2: think he's allowed more hits per inning than any pitcher
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 2: in baseball this year. He's almost allowing two hits per inning,
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 2: which is insane.
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 4: You cannot do that.
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: And on top of that, he's got kind of a
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 2: high walk rate to in a low strikeout rate.
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 4: So yeah, there's not a whole lot to like here.
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 2: But he does pitch better on the road, as numbers
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 2: against Arizona are actually good in sixty seven at bats,
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 2: and this is including that last start where he got
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 2: lit up by them. His numbers are still good against
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 2: them in sixty seven at bats fifteen to five, strike
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 2: out walk ratio, two PHO nine average allowed, six point
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 2: fifty two ops. So maybe he does bounce back and
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 2: pitch better here. I mean, he's in the better of
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 2: his home road splits, but Arizona did just see him,
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 2: which might give them a little advantage.
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 4: But he's been around for so long.
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 2: I don't know if the unfamiliarity versus familiarity really matters.
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 2: For a guy that's been around that long. Zach Gallon
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 2: is pitching for Arizona. He's not having a great season either,
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: four point seven to eighty r one point four to
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 2: three WHIP, but he's been way better at home two
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 2: point seven homey ray, which again doesn't totally make sense
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: to me, but that's the way that it is, despite
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: it being a hitter friendly ballpark. He pitched well last
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: time out here against San Francisco, but they're a really
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 2: weak offense. Colorado hasn't been a very good offense either,
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 2: though they're not good on the road either. A Gallon
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 2: overall this month hasn't been very good though seven point
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 2: eighty RRA, more than one hit a lot per inning
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 2: in a seventeen to eight strike out walk ratio over
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 2: the course of the season pretty similar to that. He's
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 2: allowed more than one hit per inning, which is not good.
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 2: Walk rate a little bit high as well, and his
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: strike gout rate is way down, like he's a guy
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 2: that you kind of expect to strike more guys out
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 2: than he is this year, so that's kind of a problem.
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: His numbers against Colorado are also actually not good. In
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 2: forty two at bats, three thirty three batting average oneenty
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 2: twelve ohps, seven to six strike out walk ratio. So
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 2: his matchup numbers look bad, and Arizona's laying a big
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: price here at Where are they at here? National League
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 2: Kamambarari they are, They're at minus one to eighty something here.
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 2: Money is fading Arizona here, and I kind of agree.
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 2: Eighty six percent of tickets seventy nine percent of the
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 2: cash on Arizona. I know Gallon's been good at home,
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 2: but it seems like they're laying too heavy of a
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 2: price here for me. Lorenzen does have the better matchup
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 2: numbers here, and I mean, his numbers just look so
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 2: atrocious that I think he's probably being a little bit
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 2: undervalued because he is at least decent ish on the road.
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 2: The total is high, the money is all coming in
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 2: towards the over him, and I wouldn't necessarily disagree with
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 2: an over. I don't really think either pitcher is that trustworthy.
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 2: The bullpens are both pretty bad, so an over makes
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 2: sense to me as well, especially because this looks like
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 2: it should be an over heavy series, although it hasn't been,
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 2: though the offense has been kind of struggling. So I
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 2: don't want to put that on my card or anything.
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 2: But the total is nine, so the oddsmakers are expecting
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 2: it to be a higher scoring game. Money coming in
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 2: towards Colorado. You know. I think if you go Colorado,
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 2: maybe you still limit it to first five though, because
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 2: I still don't like their bullpen. All right, that's baseball.
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 2: Gave out three plays in baseball. Finally done with baseball
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 2: after an hour and a half. All right, WNBA, which
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 2: I think a lot of times there's no WNB on Saturday,
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 2: because I think they play on Sunday always, but not
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 2: always on Saturday. But we have three games here. There
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 2: is one afternoon game. I'm gonna give out a play
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 2: in the late game for WNBA. First game up as
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 2: Minnesota Chicago on CBS and Paramount Plus Chicago. They just
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: lost at home to Dallas, which was in a return
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 2: home spot, so that was their home opener. But I
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 2: did tell you that a return home spot, you know,
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, I always tell you it's a bad spot
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 2: when you return home from the road. You got to
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 2: get back to home life, whatever, So it might have
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: been a distract spot they lost, but now they're settled
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 2: back in at home after that lost to Dallas. They
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 2: might show up. I mean, Minnesota has been one of
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 2: the best teams in the league last few years, even
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: though I know Minnesota is still without their best player
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 2: call here, and Chicago did beat them on the road
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 2: to finish the road trip, so that would be my concern.
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 2: Like this looks like a positive, like a bounce back
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 2: spot for Chicago here, but Minnesota is not going to
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 2: take them lightly because Minnesota already lost at home to them,
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 2: So I think Minnesota is going to show up as well.
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 2: Minnesota is going on the road just for this one game,
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 2: but it's not that long of a trip here, and
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 2: they're coming off an easy win over Toronto, which is
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 2: kind of just whatever, which was Thursday. That was my
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 2: strongest recommendation on Thursday for Wnbao.
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 4: That was not on my card.
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 2: It was an easy win and cover from Minnesota. So
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 2: this is a tough game for me to figure out. Man,
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 2: I think both teams have reasons to show up here.
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 2: The money's coming out on Minnesota. They're minus two and
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 2: a half here. I guess I kind of agree. Sixty
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 2: six percent of tickets eighty two percent of the cash
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 2: on them. They're the better team, as the osmakers are
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 2: telling you, even though they're a little bit shorthanded here.
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 2: But Chicago, I think also is. I think Van der
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 2: Slut is still not back for them, and she doesn't
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 2: score a lot, but she's like a good role player
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 2: for them, and I believe she's a starter for them.
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 2: What do I know about the WNBA though, But yeah,
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 2: I think I would leave Minnesota there. They're the better team.
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 2: They do have revenge on mine there probably, And I
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 2: guess the good thing to do is to go look
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 2: at the box score, like was there an outlier or anything?
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 2: Like why did Chicago win this game?
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean?
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 2: But I don't know if they're really well. The big
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 2: outlier yet was the free throw percentage. The Sky went
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 2: to the line more than twice as much as Minnesota did.
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 2: They're plus twelve from a free throw line, and that's
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 2: what did it. Because both teams shot very similarly. Minnesota
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 2: actually had more field goal attempts in the game. But
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 2: if you think the free throw disparity is gonna even
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 2: out a little bit here, that would be a reason
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 2: to look towards Minnesota this time out, because that's basically
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 2: the reason they lost this game. Also, Chicago shot eighty
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 2: percent from the free throw line compared to Minnesota at
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 2: sixty seven percent, so there might be a little bit
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 2: of a.
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 4: Regression as far as that is concerned. As well.
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 2: Chicago did win the rebound battles slightly though, but yeah,
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 2: that kind of confirms a little bit. I'm gonna lean
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 2: Minnesota on that one. Portland at Toronto, we have the
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 2: battle of the two expansion teams here as they finally
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 2: meet up Toronto. He's returning over from a road trip,
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 2: so that is a negative. They've been on the road
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 2: since May fifteenth, so you know, I talk about this
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 2: when a team returns on from the road a lot
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 2: of times. It's a negative spot. You gotta get back
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: to home life whatever. It can be a distraction, but
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 2: maybe they will be focused because it might get a
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 2: little bit hyped, like, hey, the two new teams get
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 2: to play each other, and I don't necessarily know if
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 2: I want Portland going to another unfamiliar environment on the road.
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 2: Portland just played really bad in their first road game
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 2: against Indiana. All of their games prior to that were
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 2: at home, and while they played pretty respectably, especially getting
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 2: a win over New York in those games that might
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 2: have been because they have a little bit of an
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 2: extra home advantage. Like these expansion teams, they have a
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 2: new arena, right, so a lot of times the teams
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 2: that come in there aren't familiar with it, so it's
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 2: a little bit of an extra home advantage. But then
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 2: on the other side, that expansion team also probably does
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 2: a little bit worse on the road, So I think
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 2: that means Toronto has a little bit of an extra
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 2: home advantage here, so I'm staying away from it. I
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 2: would lean against Toronto still, though I think I would
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 2: take the points with Portland here. The money is agreeing
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 2: with a fifty six percent of tickets eighty nine percent
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 2: of the cash on Portland. The oddsmakers are telling you
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 2: Toronto is the better team though by lining them as
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 2: a four and a half five point favorite here. But yeah,
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 2: I would lean towards taking the points. I still don't
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 2: think I would lay a price like that with a
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 2: new team like that, you know, in return home spot
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 2: like that.
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 4: But I don't love how it sets up for Portland.
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 2: Either, like I said, with the potential that they don't
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 2: do well in an unfamiliar environment, But like I said,
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 2: I have a play in this last game here, and
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 2: we are going to I've had a good read on
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 2: these teams. By the way, two of my four w
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 2: NBA players have involved the Vegas Aces and we're four
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 2: and zero on the season so far, and I know
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 2: that can't last. But we did also have a play
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 2: where we won with Vegas against La. Well, what does
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 2: that mean we're doing here? We're gonna take LA plus
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 2: eight and a half here against Vegas for a whole
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 2: number of reasons. This game is also CBS Paramount plus.
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 2: Nobody's gonna watch it anyway. I'm not gonna watch it.
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 2: You don't need to watch it. So Vegas, we played
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 2: them in their game against La, which, if you remember,
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 2: we faded Vegas in their home opener in the opener
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 2: of the season because it was their rings ceremony. It
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 2: was a major revenge spot because their rings ceremony was
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 2: literally against the team they beat in the finals, Phoenix.
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 2: So I thought it was a bad spot for Vegas there.
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 2: Phoenix came out and annihilated them. But then I thought
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 2: that we were gonna get a little bit of value
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 2: on Vegas after that because they had such a bad game.
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 2: I was like, they're gonna play way better after that.
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 2: They're a much better team than that. They're one of
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 2: the best teams in the league. Still, they're gonna go
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 2: out on the road and handle business, and that's what
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 2: they did. We got an easy win with Vegas coming
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 2: off of that.
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 4: And it was also an advantage to Vegas.
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 2: Remember, because LA had not played yet, so the fact
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 2: that Vegas had a game under their belt, even though
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 2: they were on a back to back, they were still
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 2: rested because they'd only played one game. But I think
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 2: it was a disadvantage that LA had not played a
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 2: game at all yet, so they hadn't acclimated to the
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 2: season yet, you know what I mean. So we got
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 2: a good performance out of Vegas. They had a bad
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 2: second quarter, but they dominated the other three quarters there.
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 2: But if you remember, the line in this game was
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 2: one and a half when the game went off, I
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 2: think we actually laid two on the show, maybe two
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 2: and a half. The line actually went down. I don't
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 2: exactly know why that was the case. So the money
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 2: was disagreeing with me on that game, but I showed
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 2: the money who was right in that game. But if
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 2: Vegas was minus one and a half in that game
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 2: when the game went off, I know they opened four
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 2: and a half. How could they possibly be laying eight
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 2: and a half at home here? This is the WNBA, Dude,
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 2: home advantage is not three four points. It's not even
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 2: that much in the NBA.
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 4: I mean, this is ridiculous to me.
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 2: I think this line is too high, given that this
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 2: line crashed to one and a half. If four and
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 2: a half was actually the line in that first game,
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 2: this line might make a little bit more sense here.
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 2: But I think this line is clearly too high based
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 2: on what we saw in this first game, with Vegas
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 2: being basically a two point favorite on the road. Now
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 2: they're eight and a half at home unless there are
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 2: some personnel differences.
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 4: But if you look at what happened in this game.
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 2: Vegas shot sixty two percent from the field in that game, Dude,
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 2: that is not gonna happen again, and LA shot thirty
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 2: seven percent. LA had nine more field goal attempts than
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 2: Vegas did in the game, yet Vegas made fourteen more.
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 2: That that kind of disparity is going to regress. You know,
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 2: uh LA actually had more possessions in the games. They
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 2: actually were somewhat the better team in the game. Even
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 2: though I'm happy that I was right about the game,
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 2: the final score was very, very misleading. I think the
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 2: fact that that was such a blowout, nobody's gonna want
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 2: to take La here, but LA is gonna take Vegas
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 2: seriously now as well. It's a little bit of a
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 2: revenge spot too, you know what I mean, When that
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 2: team came into your house and embarrassed you, you get
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 2: to go out and play against them on the road.
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 2: You're gonna show up and try to do the same
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 2: thing to them, And so I like LA for that reason.
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 2: But again, this game was a lot closer than the
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 2: final score looked. It was just there was this massive
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 2: field goal percentage disparity that was a complete outlier. So
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 2: I think that's going to flip. LA did lose the
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 2: turnover battle, and a lot of times the road team
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 2: will lose the turnover battle. Maybe that's a little bit
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 2: of a concern. But LA also outrebounded Vegas here somehow
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 2: by one, so that's not a bad sign for this either.
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 2: But this gets even better because Vegas is returning over
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 2: from a road trip, So dude, I kind of love
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 2: this play. Vegas returning over from the road. They've only
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 2: had one game at home, and by the way, they
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 2: lost that game by thirty three points. You remember, as
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 2: I said, we faded them in that game, so Vegas
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 2: that if I said La, I apologize im at Vegas.
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 2: Vegas is only home game so far. It was a
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 2: thirty three point loss. And while they're not going to
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 2: lose by thirty three again, I think there's a really
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 2: good chance for LA to cover this game. I think
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 2: they might have a decent shot to win this game.
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 2: Vegas returning over from the road. They've been away for
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 2: almost two weeks. They went to LA to start that
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 2: road trip and that was that blowout loss over La.
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 2: So similar spot to what we have with Connecticut the
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 2: other night, where Seattle had started their road trip by
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 2: beating Connecticut and then upon returning home they had to
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 2: face Connecticut again. Connecticut was able to beat them. Same
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 2: thing here. Vegas started that road trip by beating La.
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 2: They might overlook La here and they're gonna be in
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 2: that return home spot where they might take LA a
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 2: little bit lightly here. Vegas has actually had a pretty
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 2: easy schedule so far. Two of their four wins are
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 2: against Connecticut, who are probably the worst team in the league.
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 2: So that's I think Vegas is still one of the
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 2: best teams in the league. I'm not gonna deny that,
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 2: but they've had a pretty soft schedule so far. This game, yeah,
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 2: I think, yeah, this game is not gonna be easiest
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 2: games against Connecticut though, of course Vegas last time out
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 2: they played Atlanta. Atlanta is a pretty good team and
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 2: Vegas beat them on the road. But maybe Atlanta's gonna
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 2: be in for you know, having a little bit of
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 2: a worse season because they decided to add Angel Reese.
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 2: Who knows. But yeah, I like the spot, but I
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 2: like it a lot. And Vegas, if you watched them
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 2: like the last couple of years, they've actually been really
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 2: bad in their early season home games. I don't know why,
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 2: but they have some real stinkers at home early in
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 2: the season. So we're gonna go with it LA plus
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 2: eight and a half here and looking at the market,
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 2: the money agrees Vegas is very public. Eighty percent of tickets,
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 2: seventy three percent of the cash on them. The line
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 2: is mostly eight. But there's not really that much of
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 2: a difference there. I think some of the money has
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 2: come in agreeing with me. Already, but eight is fine
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 2: as well, eight, eight and a half. Either way, the
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 2: key number million basketball is seven, So I'm fine with that,
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 2: So let's do that. What the WNBA is paying what
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 2: how much are they paying them? I'm assuming they're still
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 2: way underpaid. I don't know, or not under They're definitely
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 2: not underpaid. They shouldn't make anything. Nobody watches WNBA. I'm
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 2: assuming they're way They're paid way lower than the NBA players,
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 2: is what I meant to say. I don't know, it's
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 2: some fucking it's some DEI bullshit, like the the market,
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 2: Like in an actual market, free market environment, There's no
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 2: way they would get paid that much because nobody watches
• 1:39:15
  Speaker 2: this shit. The w n B A was was that
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 2: it's most popular when dildos are being thrown onto the court.
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 2: So I don't know. Chicago didn't want Reese anymore. She's
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 2: a good she's a good rebounder, but she's terrible offensively.
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 2: Three hundred k year. Fuck that I should, dude, they
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 2: should not make more than me. I provide more value
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 2: to society than they do. All right, NHL, I got
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 2: to bring up the NBA as well, because I do
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 2: actually have a play in the NBA NHL. I thought
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 2: I might give out a play on this, but I'm
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 2: gonna pass on this Montreal Carolina game TNT, True, TV,
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 2: HBO Max. I gave out a winner in Game one.
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 2: I thought Carolina having eleven days off was just absurd.
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 2: I thought they were gonna have their momentum completely stopped.
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 2: And yes, they lost six to two. There is room
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 2: for a bounce back here. For sure, they're the better team,
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 2: they're at home, but I do have some question marks here.
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 2: Look we look at the game, it does actually look
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 2: decent for a bounce back for Carolina because they did
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 2: have more shots in the game, but part of that
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 2: was because they were losing the game. But they were
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 2: also way more physical forty four to eighteen in hits.
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 2: So that does make me like Carolina, the fact that
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 2: they out physical Montreal, though they were only fifty to
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 2: fifty in the faceoffs. But the reason they outshot Montreal
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 2: is because they were down four to nothing after the
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 2: first period or in the first period, so that threw
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 2: a wrench into what Carolina was trying to do. Now,
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 2: Carolina has been a lot better than that during the
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 2: rest of the postseason. Frederick Anderson, their goalie, the old
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 2: timer at this point. Man, he had some issues this season,
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 2: but he was spot on throughout the entire playoffs until
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 2: that game. Like you see all these low scoring games
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 2: Carolina has been involved in. So I think Anderson is
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 2: going to bounce back here and have a better game
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 2: based on what he's done throughout the playoffs. Here. Montreal
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 2: is still the less experienced, way younger team, and they
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 2: still have a rookie goalie here. But obviously games like
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 2: that are gonna give him confidence, man, you know what
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 2: I mean. So that worries me a little bit. And
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 2: the fact that I got the stat wrong. Actually, Montreal
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 2: was six and two on the road in playoff games
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 2: going into that game. Now there's seven and two on
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 2: the road in playoff games this year, so I don't
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 2: really want to fade that. I lean Carolina in this game.
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 2: I think Carolina is going to win. But I got
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 2: some issues with it, man, one of them. Again, Montreal
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 2: has been great on the road in the postseason seven
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 2: and two Carolina, as I mentioned, which I forgot to
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 2: mention on that show when I gave out that play,
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 2: they have been horrible in the Eastern Conference Finals in
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 2: home games. I believe they've lost seven straight game ones
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 2: now in the Conference finals, although that doesn't apply in
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 2: this game, but I believe they've now also, I think
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 2: lost ten home games in a row in this round
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 2: of the playoffs. So I don't want to deal with that.
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 2: You can check me if I'm wrong about that. But
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 2: some of those trends worry me a little bit here.
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 2: And Carolina has played a lot of low scoring games,
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 2: and you're asking them to cover as a big favorite here, man, Like,
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 2: if you play this game, if you're gonna play.
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 4: Carolina, and I do lean that way.
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 2: They got eighty four percent of tickets, eighty nine percent
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 2: of the cash on them, you have to lay minus
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 2: two hundred. Basically, you have to lay a puck line
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 2: with them. Really, if you want to play them here.
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 2: I don't want to ask them to win by two goals, man,
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 2: because they've only been able to do that twice this
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 2: entire postseason. They only have two wins by more than
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 2: one goal in the entire postseason. One of them was
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 2: by two, and one of them was by three. I'm
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 2: pretty sure, So I don't like that. Possibly the better
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 2: way to play this might actually be the under seventy
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 2: one percent of tickets, seventy percent of the cash on
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 2: over but you know me, the empty net goals can
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 2: just end you with those. But Carolina has played a
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 2: lot of low scoring games, dude, So if they're gonna
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 2: start controlling this game and Anderson bounces back, I could
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 2: see this being like a three to two type of game.
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 4: So under the six does make some sense.
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 2: But you're not getting a whole lot of leeway there,
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 2: and there's always that risk that you, you know, you
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 2: wind up with that empty net goal.
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 4: So I do lean Carolina slightly. I lean.
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 2: Under, and I think if you want to play Carolina,
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 2: I mean, I hate parlays, but it makes some sense
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 2: to put them in a money line parlay. So they're
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 2: around minus two hundreds, so you take them, put them
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 2: in a parlay with another money line favorite around that
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 2: same price, and get it done that way. You could
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 2: do that, But I don't like parlays because you need
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 2: two independent results to come through, and the books still
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 2: don't give you good enough odds on it, all right,
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 2: So I'm passing on that, but I will give out
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 2: a play on the.
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 4: NBA game here.
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 2: I think you know what I'm gonna do if you
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 2: know how you know how I play these things, Man,
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 2: this is the best bet here. We were going to
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 2: go with the Cleveland Calves money line in this game
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 2: at minus one thirty. It's I think it's actually a
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 2: little bit of a cheap money line price here, based
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 2: on the fact that they're minus two and a half.
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 2: I mean, if you want to lay the two and
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 2: a half, I don't disagree with it, but I think
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 2: that line is a little bit skewed because the oddsmakers
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 2: know that when teams are down two coming back home,
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 2: they do really really well typically in the playoffs, especially
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 2: if they're coming off a blowout loss, which is the
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 2: case here. And you know I gave you guys the
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 2: Knicks in game two. I thought it was a horrible
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 2: spot for Cleveland. So I think what happened in this
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 2: series was Cleveland played better in Game one because the
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 2: Knicks were rusty, so the Knicks didn't play that well
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 2: coming off the extended rest. Cleveland then completely imploded and
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 2: blew an insurmountable lead. And after that I thought they
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 2: were gonna be in a hangover spot in the next game.
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 2: I thought there's no way they can get back up
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 2: off the mat for the next game after that, and
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 2: I was correct the Knicks one easily once they started
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 2: pulling away there. They won easily in the second half.
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 2: But now after that, I think it goes back the
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 2: other way and we got to look to Cleveland here.
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 2: But again the problem is the odds makers know this,
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 2: and the odds makers know that the teams down two
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 2: at home also do really, really well in the first half,
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 2: and if you want to play Cleveland first half I
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 2: think you'd have to do that money line as well,
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 2: because they're like minus two, so they're like almost the
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 2: same price for the first half as they are in
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 2: the full game, because odds makers are onto it. But
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 2: I think the oddsmakers have also shoved the line towards
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 2: Cleveland a little bit more because there's a home advantage
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 2: here Cleveland. Besides those couple of Detroit games towards the end,
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 2: Cleveland has been way better at home in the postseason,
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 2: and in fact, they are let me see here, let's
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 2: get through this year. Against Toronto they went four and
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 2: oho straight up in home, three and one against the spread,
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 2: and against Detroit they were let me see, two and
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 2: one at home, both straight up and against the spread,
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 2: So they are what was that? Then? They're six and
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 2: two against the spread at home? I think it's seven
• 1:46:17
  Speaker 2: and one straight up at home, I believe is Did
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 2: I get that wrong? Let me make sure I got
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 2: that right. No, six and one, there's six and one
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 2: straight up, five and two against the spread at home.
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 2: That's what they are because they played seven home games.
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure. So Cleveland, Yeah, I think this is
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're gonna win the series. You know,
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 2: the odds are completely against them. Obviously, They're down two
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 2: teams that have played two seven game series to start
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 2: out the playoffs, facing a team that did not are
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 2: one in four historically in that series. So Cleveland is
• 1:46:50
  Speaker 2: not gonna win the series. But I think this is
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 2: the spot where maybe they actually do show up and
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 2: they play their best game. Because if you go down
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 2: oh three, the series is over. Historically, no team has
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 2: ever come back from that. The team's down h two
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 2: play well. But also we do have some regression factors here.
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 2: The Knicks shot fifty two percent from the field in
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 2: that game, man Cleveland thirty nine percent, So there is
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 2: definitely a bit of a regression here. The Knicks were
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 2: plus four from three point range as well four more threes.
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 2: They're plus twelve from three point range in the game,
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 2: so I think there is a little bit of a
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 2: room for regression, especially for Cleveland to just shoot better
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 2: in this game. I know the Knicks are good defensively,
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 2: but Toronto actually is pretty good as well, and Cleveland
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 2: just was way better offensive throughout the entire playoffs.
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 4: They've been way better offensively at home and.
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 2: Actually Detroit, who they face, is also a good defense,
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 2: so Cleveland is used to facing good defenses and they've
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 2: shot way better, you know, at home. Now, the one
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 2: thing that is kind of a problem here is Cleveland
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 2: did have fourteen more free throw makes than the Knicks
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 2: did in that game. And I know that's not a
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 2: great sign, but the one thing that I do like
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 2: about that is that means Cleveland was dominating on the
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 2: interior to some extent, and they had more rebounds in
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 2: the game as well, only by two, But that's more
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 2: of a sustainable thing, not the free throws really, but
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 2: the rebounding. But yes, I expect the free throws to
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 2: even out a little bit, but the Knicks just shot
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 2: way better than Cleveland did. I think the Knicks are
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 2: not gonna shoot this well again. You know, the fact
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 2: that they had thirteen more field goal mix and four
• 1:48:22
  Speaker 2: more three point mikes, I think there will be some
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 2: regression there, even though yes, I know Cleveland kind of
• 1:48:27
  Speaker 2: even that out a little bit with having fourteen more
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 2: free throws. But also we look at the home road splits.
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 2: The Knicks were way worse on the road during the
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 2: regular season. They were thirty and ten at home, and
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 2: they were twenty two to nineteen on the road. And Cleveland,
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 2: as I already pointed out, they've been way better at
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 2: home during the playoffs. So the Knicks are not as
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 2: good of a road team. The Knicks did lose, what
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 2: did they lose? They lost one game on the road
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 2: I think in the playoffs so far against the Hawks.
• 1:48:55
  Speaker 2: But Cleveland is better than the Hawks. Cleveland is also
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 2: better than the seventy six ers. So and Cleveland, by
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 2: the way, yes, they did play one home game against
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 2: the Knicks during the regular season and they won that
• 1:49:07
  Speaker 2: game by fifteen points. And that was with James Hard
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 2: and that was the only time they played against the
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 2: Knicks after they got James Hard. And I know Harden's
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 2: the defensive liability whatever. But that one game they played
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 2: after getting him at Cleveland, Cleveland beat the Knicks by
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 2: fifteen points. So that's a decent sign here as well.
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 2: I think you can get Cleveland's best effort here. I'm
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 2: recommending money line at minus one thirty, but you can
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 2: lay the points, I guess, even though I think the
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 2: line is a little bit too high I think it
• 1:49:35
  Speaker 2: really should be about one and a half here. But
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 2: I think Cleveland does get the job done and win.
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 2: Uh sixty two percent of tickets and sixty one percent
• 1:49:42
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the Knicks. So obviously you know
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 2: the public they're recency biased. They see the Knicks having
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 2: won both games dominated on the scoreboarding. Game two, public
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 2: is all over the Knicks, and you know, I warn
• 1:49:54
  Speaker 2: you about these public underdogs. You usually want to fade them.
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 2: So that is what we're gonna do here. The money's
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 2: also coming in on the under I probably would not
• 1:50:03
  Speaker 2: do that. I think Cleveland is correlated to an over here.
• 1:50:07
  Speaker 2: Uh Cleveland, they kind of needed to be an over
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 2: game because they're more of an offensive team than a
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 2: defensive team. They tend to score more and have higher
• 1:50:14
  Speaker 2: scoring games at home, So I probably would slightly lean
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 2: towards an over here. Totals at two fifteen, I don't
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 2: know where was the total in the first couple of games.
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 2: It was probably lower than that I would imagine because
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 2: the Knicks play more of a defensive style. I was
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 2: two fifteen and a half. So what's this total?
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 4: No, it's basically about the same.
• 1:50:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think an over might be worth the look there,
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 2: and especially because the last game I was wrong about
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 2: it being an over In the last game, the last
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 2: game went way under and wound up two to oh two.
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 2: I think was the final there so or was that? No?
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 2: Was that to twelve and then have been too I
• 1:50:49
  Speaker 2: don't I can't do math anymore. I think it was
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 2: actually to twelve, I think, but it went under. Uh
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 2: So I think it might be an over here.
• 1:50:57
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 1:50:57
  Speaker 2: Cleveland more of an over team at home, and these
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 2: teams are playing a third game in five days. Remember,
• 1:51:03
  Speaker 2: although Cleveland, I know Cleveland's very unrested, they're playing like
• 1:51:06
  Speaker 2: a fifth game in the last eight days or whatever
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 2: that is something like that. So that's not great obviously.
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 2: But both these teams, I think the rest, you know,
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 2: kind of catches up to you a little bit at
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 2: some point. Oh, I don't know.
• 1:51:23
  Speaker 4: What the what the term is that I'm looking for.
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 2: I think Cleveland will tire out before the end of
• 1:51:27
  Speaker 2: the series, like they'll completely fall off. But I don't
• 1:51:30
  Speaker 2: think it's gonna happen here. I think this is the
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 2: game where you get Cleveland's best effort. I think Cleveland
• 1:51:34
  Speaker 2: wins this game and then the Knicks probably win the
• 1:51:37
  Speaker 2: next two and win this series and five. That would
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 2: be what I think is gonna happen here. But we're
• 1:51:42
  Speaker 2: gonna go with Cleveland money line there and that's it.
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 2: Those are the plays today. We got Philadelphia Phillies first
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 2: five inning minus a half on the run line. You
• 1:51:53
  Speaker 2: have to pay a little bit of juice for that.
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 2: But I like the starting pitching matchup. We have under
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 2: eight in Mets Miami, we're seven and a half. Half
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 2: is the most abundant number out there. But I saw
• 1:52:02
  Speaker 2: a good number on the eight game two over nine
• 1:52:06
  Speaker 2: and a half in Cardinals Cincinnati Game two, that is
• 1:52:09
  Speaker 2: Lay versus Petty. That's the game that you want, the
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 2: one that I'm recommending, Although now that I said that,
• 1:52:16
  Speaker 2: obviously it'll be like the other doubleheader where I was
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 2: completely wrong about the first game of that Astros Rockies
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 2: doublehead or whatever it was lost in and then the
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 2: Astros won in the second game or whatever. Don't want
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 2: that to happen again. But game two over is my recommendation. There.
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 2: We got WNBA LA plus the points sprinkle on the
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 2: money line on these underdogs, like I always say that one,
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 2: like I'd put ten percent of it on the money line.
• 1:52:40
  Speaker 2: And then we are playing a Cleveland Calves money line.
• 1:52:43
  Speaker 2: That's my recommendation at minus one thirty there, or I
• 1:52:47
  Speaker 2: might wait because the Knicks are public, the line might
• 1:52:50
  Speaker 2: move a little bit in the direction of the Knicks.
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 2: You might get like a two on Cleveland if you
• 1:52:54
  Speaker 2: really want to lay the spread there. If they win,
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 2: they probably do win by more than two points. So
• 1:53:01
  Speaker 2: but you know, I feel like the money line is
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a better price there. It's almost
• 1:53:05
  Speaker 2: like a college basketball type of type of play there,
• 1:53:10
  Speaker 2: But it works better in college basketball. You want to
• 1:53:13
  Speaker 2: play those short moneyline favorites in college basketball. NBA you
• 1:53:16
  Speaker 2: could apply the same thing. I just don't think it's
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 2: as advantageous as it is in college Thank you, sir,
• 1:53:23
  Speaker 2: that's gonna do it. Let's get back on track. We
• 1:53:26
  Speaker 2: got to bounce back today. Happy Saturday, everybody, Memorial Day weekend,
• 1:53:30
  Speaker 2: have some cookouts, enjoy the outside peace. Oh I have
• 1:53:34
  Speaker 2: to plug. Yeah. Learn it Toad on Twitter, learn it
• 1:53:37
  Speaker 2: tone on Instagram, link tree, learned it Toad. You got
• 1:53:39
  Speaker 2: all my links there, like, subscribe to the show here.
• 1:53:42
  Speaker 2: Some fucker has been going in and down voting all
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 2: my videos on this channel just because they hate me. Dude,
• 1:53:49
  Speaker 2: I was on a ninety one thirty eight and five run.
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 2: You do that. That's all I have to say to you.
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 2: You're gonna downvote me. You go and go on a
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 2: run like that, match what I've been able to do,
• 1:53:59
  Speaker 2: and then come talk to me. That's all I gotta say. Yeah.
• 1:54:04
  Speaker 2: But now that I said that, dude, I mean, I
• 1:54:06
  Speaker 2: know we're in line for some regression here because you
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 2: can't sustain a run like this, but I'm trying. We're
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 2: on audio as well, so go over there. Listen on audio, Apple, Spotify,
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 2: Spreak or all that covered in yuke is my yuke channel.
• 1:54:22
  Speaker 2: You can check that out Patreon dot com, sash and
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 2: learn it to over some bonus stuff. I know, Uh
• 1:54:27
  Speaker 2: for Harry Balls, I gotta get back to you. I
• 1:54:30
  Speaker 2: gotta cover that. I'm gonna do uh that you have.
• 1:54:34
  Speaker 4: Requested. I am gonna do it at some point.
• 1:54:36
  Speaker 2: It's not gonna be great, but I'll do it, and
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 2: then Uh Loser casts every Tuesday night.
• 1:54:42
  Speaker 4: I don't know if Layton's gonna be back from that.
• 1:54:45
  Speaker 2: He probably will be back. He's at the ellen c
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 2: right now, lame, but I think that ends Sunday, so
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 2: I'm assuming he'll be back for a Tuesday show. Well,
• 1:54:53
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't know what's gonna happen with
• 1:54:55
  Speaker 2: that Giants g Spot podcast. We're also waiting for Ben
• 1:54:58
  Speaker 2: to come back from the Ellen's, so we will see
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 2: the Libertarian Party. I'm glad I'm not at that shit fest.
• 1:55:05
  Speaker 2: The only fun thing about it last time was running
• 1:55:08
  Speaker 2: for president and getting everybody angry. But that's gonna do it. Peace, No,
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 2: I have not made it. Nobody watches this channel. People
• 1:55:15
  Speaker 2: should watch it. I think I'm the most underrated betting show,
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 2: but people don't want to listen to me. All Right,
• 1:55:21
  Speaker 2: have a good Memorial Day weekend. I will be back
• 1:55:24
  Speaker 2: tomorrow morning.
• 1:55:25
  Speaker 3: Peace.
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 2: The link is in my link tream. It's I don't
• 1:55:31
  Speaker 2: know it's on. It's on YouTube. We only have one
• 1:55:34
  Speaker 2: episode though. Peace.
• 1:55:38
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the flow.
• 1:55:42
  Speaker 1: Your name still means something to somebody for show. Put
• 1:55:46
  Speaker 1: the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 1:55:50
  Speaker 3: No, hold on, hold on.
• 1:55:58
  Speaker 2: Letting.
• 1:56:00
  Speaker 3: Up now, hold on, hold on, let me pull the
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 3: lock by horn. Don't get the crown.
• 1:56:19
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on and stay with me now