Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / US Warns Against Tylenol Use, Citing Unproven Link to Autism

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US Warns Against Tylenol Use, Citing Unproven Link to Autism · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 2: That title all situation. I don't know, Scarlett, I've said
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  Speaker 2: this before, and Eric, my entire life has been the
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  Speaker 2: magic drug that fixes.
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  Speaker 3: Everything for me.
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  Speaker 4: I know I have a mother who suffers from migraines
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  Speaker 4: and she would reach for the titleal all the time.
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  Speaker 4: So what President Trump is saying is certainly eye popping,
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  Speaker 4: I think for a lot of people.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, moving the stock. As Charlie was just reporting,
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  Speaker 2: we want to get the latest from Bloomberg Intelligence and
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  Speaker 2: Hunter van Kirk Joints as she covers the healthcare stuff
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  Speaker 2: for Bloomberg Intelligence and what is the what's the science
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  Speaker 2: behind all of this? Is there science behind all of
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  Speaker 2: this or is this just the present Trump and mister
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  Speaker 2: Secretary Kennedy kind of going off the range a little bit.
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  Speaker 5: That's a loaded question. There are a lot of studies
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  Speaker 5: on it. It's certainly driven by an increase in finding
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  Speaker 5: a solution for the increased rates of ADHD and autism.
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  Speaker 5: I think it's really important here to qualify or quantify
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  Speaker 5: what we're talking about with frequent tile and all use.
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  Speaker 5: And most of the studies are looking at measured as
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  Speaker 5: more than twenty eight days over the course of your pregnancy,
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  Speaker 5: so that is a lot of tile and all use.
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  Speaker 5: We're not talking about you have a high fever and
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  Speaker 5: you take it for a day or two. Is this
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  Speaker 5: is kind of more long term use. There is a
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  Speaker 5: correlation between tile and all use and these disorders and children,
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  Speaker 5: and I'll probably lose listeners if I go too deeply,
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  Speaker 5: but correlation is not causation. Those are two separate things.
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  Speaker 5: And while there's a lot of literature out there, a
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  Speaker 5: lot of clinical studies, I would argue that the best
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  Speaker 5: ones look at sibling analysis, so they compare a mother
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  Speaker 5: who had frequent use during one pregnancy and not the next,
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  Speaker 5: and that's the best way to kind of look at this.
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  Speaker 5: And in those studies there was no findings of increased risks,
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  Speaker 5: and there have been several There was a two and
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  Speaker 5: a half million dollars a two and a half million
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  Speaker 5: children study in Sweden as well as a more recent
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  Speaker 5: one out of Japan. Unfortunately, randomized trials are are difficult
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  Speaker 5: to do, there's just too many variables. But the sibling
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  Speaker 5: analysis is probably the best we.
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  Speaker 4: Have so And when I think about the companies that
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  Speaker 4: are affected, certainly ken View, which owns the Tialnol brand,
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  Speaker 4: is directly affected. And we saw the stock plunge yesterday.
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  Speaker 4: It's recovered a bit today, up about three point two percent.
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  Speaker 4: But Thailanol's generic name is a seed of meenaphin, and
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  Speaker 4: there are many other companies that make a seed of
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  Speaker 4: menaphin as well. Are we seeing them impacted in any way?
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  Speaker 4: You know?
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  Speaker 5: This is even for ken View, this is maybe a
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  Speaker 5: high single digit portion of sales, and that's thailenol overall.
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  Speaker 5: So you assume that the pregnant population is a much
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  Speaker 5: smaller percentage of those sales. And I'd argue even you know,
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  Speaker 5: before all of this, a lot of physicians, certainly mine
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  Speaker 5: when I was pregnant, recommended only taking town hall when
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  Speaker 5: you have one of those you.
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  Speaker 3: Know, high fevers.
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  Speaker 5: So I wouldn't expect it to truly be a material
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  Speaker 5: impact to any of these companies.
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  Speaker 2: Is there anything else out there that is at risk? Here,
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  Speaker 2: I mean from just the FDA, I mean your coverage here,
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  Speaker 2: because I know there's a lot of uncertainty about which
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  Speaker 2: drugs are you know, kind of favored by this administration,
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  Speaker 2: which ones aren't. Is that Are you seeing that in
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  Speaker 2: your coverage of your companies?
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  Speaker 5: Well, for pregnancy in particular, I'd say there are There
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  Speaker 5: are no favorite drugs. You know, you certainly were never
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  Speaker 5: suggested to take aspirin and Tilehall was one of the
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  Speaker 5: few things that was considered okay. But overall, you know,
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  Speaker 5: anytime you get a lot of media attention on any
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  Speaker 5: drug from from politics or anything else, it's typically not
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  Speaker 5: a great thing for the companies. But I think it
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  Speaker 5: does tend to even out as it passes.
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  Speaker 4: You are senior equity analyst for biopharmaceuticals. When the Secretary
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  Speaker 4: of Health, Robert F. Kennedy Junior speaks, does he tend
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  Speaker 4: to move companies in your universe?
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  Speaker 5: I would argue, yes, for better or for worse. I'd
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  Speaker 5: say they definitely move, but I would say that they
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  Speaker 5: go back to a steady state.
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  Speaker 3: Stay with us.
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  Speaker 2: The social media thing, I think it's a thing.
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  Speaker 4: It's a big right.
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  Speaker 2: And you know what's one of the big pieces of
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  Speaker 2: this whole social media is the whole TikTok thing. That's
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  Speaker 2: a thing.
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  Speaker 4: Well, President Trump has changed his mind on this. He
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  Speaker 4: wasn't failing for now he is.
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  Speaker 2: I don't know where we're going on this. I mean,
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  Speaker 2: this is something that active Congress says, Hey, you got
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  Speaker 2: to sell it or.
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  Speaker 4: You got shut down.
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  Speaker 2: Shut I don't know what's going She joined that she
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  Speaker 2: knows what's going on. She's a vice president of insights
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  Speaker 2: for Censored Tower, joining us live here in our Bloomberg
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  Speaker 2: Interactive broker's studio.
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  Speaker 3: TikTok huge platform.
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  Speaker 2: You guys track everything on the data, the advertising, the
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  Speaker 2: in app spend. You know, you guys know what's going
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  Speaker 2: on there. Ye talk to us about TikTok and if
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  Speaker 2: I'm going to buy this thing, what am I buying?
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  Speaker 3: Actually, what you're.
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  Speaker 6: Really buying is the as we said, one point six
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  Speaker 6: billion in in app revenue that they earned just this
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  Speaker 6: year so far. I think since launch they've earned about
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  Speaker 6: six billion in app revenue. So for those who aren't clear,
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  Speaker 6: it's when you're on the app and you make a
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  Speaker 6: purchase within it that goes through the app store, and
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  Speaker 6: that is an in app revenue purchase. So that's one
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  Speaker 6: part of it that's probably the most lucrative. It is
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  Speaker 6: the most lucrative market for TikTok for InApp revenue. The
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  Speaker 6: other thing is the value of its advertising, right. TikTok
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  Speaker 6: users in the US spend eighty minutes per day on
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  Speaker 6: the app, and this is followed by fifty three minutes
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  Speaker 6: per day at Instagram. So it's very valuable of highly
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  Speaker 6: engaged users. So it's a strong place to attractive market
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  Speaker 6: or place to put your ads.
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  Speaker 4: I'm a parent, and what you just said is like,
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  Speaker 4: I'm filled with fear now listening to what you just said.
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  Speaker 4: What I didn't hear you say though, in terms of
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  Speaker 4: what you're buying is the algorithm, because TikTok apparently serves
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  Speaker 4: up content better than any of the other social media networks. Right,
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  Speaker 4: Instagram will serve you of a lot of things that
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  Speaker 4: you're not interested in. But TikTok seems to know and
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  Speaker 4: zero in of what gets your attention, So a US
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  Speaker 4: buyer of US TikTok doesn't get that, does it.
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  Speaker 6: My understanding is that the ByteDance would license that algorithm,
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  Speaker 6: you know, technology to the US owners, and then there's
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  Speaker 6: been talk maybe you'd have to have a separate app,
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  Speaker 6: and that has gone away, But the question would be
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  Speaker 6: like will you still get that same content even if
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  Speaker 6: the algorithm is adjusted even slightly? And then what would
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  Speaker 6: the value of TikTok actually be? And I think the
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  Speaker 6: other thing, it's probably one of the more young or
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  Speaker 6: youthful oriented platforms.
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  Speaker 3: So if the buyers that.
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  Speaker 6: Come in are you know, kind of shifted towards more
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  Speaker 6: like a Facebook or changed the algorithm, it may be
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  Speaker 6: less attractive to these younger users.
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  Speaker 3: And therefore, as an advertising platform.
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  Speaker 2: What are the advertisers saying. I mean, they've got a
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  Speaker 2: vested interest in thy because they've you know a lot
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  Speaker 2: of money. They spent a lot of money on this platform.
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  Speaker 6: Yes, from year to date this year versus last year,
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  Speaker 6: eight of the ten top advertisers on TikTok have increased
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  Speaker 6: their spend like Uber Comcast, so they are spending. There's
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  Speaker 6: been more fluctuations than Uber, just because I think people
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  Speaker 6: were unsure about what was going to happen to the app,
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  Speaker 6: if it was going to be removed.
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  Speaker 3: But as of yet, it makes up about.
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  Speaker 6: Five percent of social media ad revenue in the US.
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  Speaker 4: We'll come second. I mean, if this thing is not
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  Speaker 4: handled well, or if this takes longer than expected and
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  Speaker 4: people start migrating to other platforms, who stands to benefit
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  Speaker 4: the most.
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  Speaker 6: I would say Instagram with its reels. Time spent on
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  Speaker 6: Instagram as an app has gone up fourteen percent year
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  Speaker 6: of the year versus just one percent for TikTok. And
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  Speaker 6: the thing is people are spending about forty six percent
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  Speaker 6: of their time within Instagram on reels, and that's up
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  Speaker 6: from thirty four percent last year.
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  Speaker 3: So there's a huge.
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  Speaker 6: Amount of time spent on reels, which is another short
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  Speaker 6: form video media, and it's similar to YouTube shorts. And
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  Speaker 6: that's where I think you'd see people migrate to if the.
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  Speaker 2: Sort who advertises on these the Tiktoks of the world.
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  Speaker 6: The largest advertisers and shopping in pretty much all industries
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  Speaker 6: media entertainment. You know, Amazon is a huge advertiser on
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  Speaker 6: all of these networks, as was TMU prior a couple
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  Speaker 6: of years ago.
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  Speaker 3: Shean Walmart. They all are.
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  Speaker 2: Advertising advertisers that used to advertise on broadcast.
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  Speaker 7: Yeising, and it's a lot cheaper to advertise on the
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  Speaker 7: still a more targeted theoretically, right, because they know what
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  Speaker 7: you buy, what you like, so they can target the
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  Speaker 7: ad Absolutely, that's.
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  Speaker 2: A little better than eighteen to twenty nine men.
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  Speaker 4: I know exactly Homer Simpson or you know Homer Simpson's
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  Speaker 4: son bed rotting. Have you heard of that term?
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  Speaker 3: Yes, I have, unfortunately bed rotting rotting.
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  Speaker 4: It's a gen Z term where individuals, usually teenagers, spend
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  Speaker 4: extended time in bed, not for sleep or illness, but
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  Speaker 4: for passive activities like scrolling.
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  Speaker 6: And I've unfortunately seen that in my own house. Yes,
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  Speaker 6: I have seen that in what they are, and I
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  Speaker 6: think I can see from my own sort of anecdotal
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  Speaker 6: experience that algorithm works. I can hear them laughing, they
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  Speaker 6: keep wanting I don't find them funny, but anyway, they
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  Speaker 6: keep showing these videos and they can literally sit there
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  Speaker 6: and scroll for hours and hours and hours.
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  Speaker 4: It was very meta because bedriting became popular through TikTok
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  Speaker 4: like TikTok kind of encouraged.
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  Speaker 3: Yes, ass about it. Yes, it's like something to do.
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  Speaker 6: It is glamorized, I would say by having this sort
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  Speaker 6: So all that to say is, if this algorithm shifts,
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  Speaker 6: there will be other winners, probably Instagram or meta platforms.
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  Speaker 6: But it like, I don't know what it would mean
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  Speaker 6: to TikTok itself if there was any change in the
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  Speaker 6: algorithm or any change in the way the content is delivered.
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  Speaker 2: Right, And this is a obviously this is a global business. Yes,
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  Speaker 2: I mean I'm looking at I thought just most things,
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  Speaker 2: I just think. I just thought the US would lead
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  Speaker 2: in in use, but it doesn't.
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  Speaker 6: Indonesia, Brazil, and Mexico are larger than the US. The
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  Speaker 6: US only makes up six percent of daily active users
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  Speaker 6: for TikTok, but thirty percent of in app revenue.
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  Speaker 4: So what would happen if you know, TikTok us is
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  Speaker 4: siphoned off from regular TikTok. We're the only market that
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  Speaker 4: gets us TikTok and everyone else stays on TikTok proper.
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  Speaker 6: If there was a separate app, I suppose that could happen.
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  Speaker 6: But a lot of the content that people consume is
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  Speaker 6: Internet it's global, so if you cut that off then
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  Speaker 6: I don't really know, and you can get the same
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  Speaker 6: global content from competitors like Instagram. I think that would
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  Speaker 6: be a huge risk to TikTok's engagement levels, daily active users,
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  Speaker 6: and then subsequently down the pipe advertising because obviously the
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  Speaker 6: platform is less attractive.
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: There's few people I have any sense of when we're
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: going to get clarity on this whole thing.
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  Speaker 6: Supposedly December sixteenth, but that's sort of a rolling deadline,
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  Speaker 6: so you see, I think people are still unsure of
• 11:00
  Speaker 6: what is going to happen. But the news of the
• 11:03
  Speaker 6: late seems a little bit more solid that there is
• 11:06
  Speaker 6: a group of potentially a group of people. Oracle is
• 11:09
  Speaker 6: going to manage the server.
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: That's been the consistent name throughout this y and a.
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: Couple of private equity but I mean great private andres
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: and Horowitz silver Lake, who I think is the best
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: private equity player in technology, and recent's little bit more
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: VC earlier. Stay. Yeah, yeah, so the real names and oh.
• 11:26
  Speaker 6: They're definitely a real name, but it's just a matter
• 11:28
  Speaker 6: of how they manage the business though after and how
• 11:30
  Speaker 6: that changes. It's a cultural phenomenon in some senses right,
• 11:34
  Speaker 6: so you can be careful what you do with it.
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