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Trump Heads to Tribal Council · Pod Save America

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Thank you.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: On today's show, Donald Trump caps off another crazy week
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: of chaos with a rally in the South Bronx in
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: an attempt to show strength with voters of color in
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: a deep blue city. Joe Biden spent his week taking
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: on Ticketmaster, canceling more student debt, and helping more veterans
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: get health care. But he's still running a few points
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: behind Trump with less than six months to go. We're
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: going to talk about why. Sam Alito is in trouble
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: for a second MAGA flag hanging at his second home.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: And later, former prosecutor Andrew Weissman stops by to give
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: his take on the Manhattan trial as the case heads
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: to the jury. But first, we have an update on
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: the infamous reality show star who dominates all of our
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: political discussions and will soon face judgment from a jury
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: of his peers. Let's listen.
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: Every Survivor story begins with an empty page. It's up
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: to the players to leave their mark.
• 1:33
  Speaker 4: People look at me as an underdog.
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: That's Miss Delaware, whatever.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: She has nothing more to her. And I'm like, I'm
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: a big dog.
• 1:41
  Speaker 4: I have no outdoor skills.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: What am I doing here?
• 1:44
  Speaker 4: I went camping as a Cub Scout. I threw up
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: and went home.
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: Eat, pray, love it. There it is. John Lovett. John
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: Lovett appears to be on this season of Survivor.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: Based on all the information we have, that seems to
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: be the case. I would just say that- Wow.
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah. What do you got, Dan?
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: I would just say many people have argued that in
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: a critical election year where democracy hangs in the balance,
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: the best place for love would be on an island
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: with no access to the internet.
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: Dan, you know, I'm sure he is busy doing some
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: deep canvassing. No doubt every other contestant is from a
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: swing state. He's just out there trying to get every vote,
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: you know. Sure, for the Tribal Council, but also for
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: Joe Biden. Also for Joe Biden. And look, we are
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: more than happy to hold down the fort until and
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: if he gets back. You know, we don't have not
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: a lot going on. It's just a new baby in
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: the Vitor household, a couple pods to do, a little
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: political news, company to run. Other than that, we're good.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: You have a relatively new baby?
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, it's a chill time.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: I've done Pod Save America Monday, Wednesday, Friday this week,
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: which I think you've probably done before, but that's called
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: hitting for the cycle.
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: The full Ginsburg. I have spent more time at this
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: microphone than I have in my own bed. Really? That's
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: what I'm doing. But you know what? He's probably sleeping
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: in the forest right now somewhere. I don't know. Where
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: do they sleep?
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: On the beach? I'll admit something. I have never seen...
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: The clip of Lovett was the first second of Survivor
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: I've seen in my life. I've never seen a single moment.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: I am so excited to start. I can't even tell you, but... Yeah,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: I know.
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: I watched the first season back when I was in college.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: You mean a quarter century ago. That was a quarter
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: century ago.
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: In my mind, Survivor is Richard Hatch, the first winner.
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: Is that the nudist? Who knows?
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: I'm seeing nudists.
• 3:47
  Speaker 5: I don't know. I can't.
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: Yes, I'm getting yes from... We have some Survivor fans
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: as part of our pod fans. So when this started
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: going around last night, this broke. There's obviously, you could imagine,
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: there's a lot of activity in the cricket slack. And
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: everyone was joking about all the comments on Twitter and
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: everywhere else and the Discord and friends of the pod.
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: Go sign up. But the comment of the night goes
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: to our fearless Pod Save America producer, Olivia Martinez, who said, RIP,
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: love it. You would have loved watching everyone react to
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: you being on Survivor. Which, you know, that is the
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: toughest thing. He's not here to see all the reaction.
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: But anyway, we're pulling for you, pal. We know you
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: can do it.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: Good luck.
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: Okay, back in America. I presume you all remember the
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: Republican presidential candidate who made it all the way to
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: the final tribal council this primary season. As a refresher,
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: here's some of Nikki Haley's toughest criticism of Donald Trump
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: over the last year.
• 4:50
  Speaker 5: He is not the same person he was in 2016.
• 4:53
  Speaker 5: He is unhinged. He is more diminished than he was.
• 4:57
  Speaker 5: If you don't know the value of our men and
• 5:01
  Speaker 5: women in uniform, if you don't know the sacrifice that
• 5:06
  Speaker 5: they go through Why should I, as a military spouse
• 5:10
  Speaker 5: and all our military families, trust you to know you're
• 5:13
  Speaker 5: going to keep them out of harm's way? And it's
• 5:15
  Speaker 5: a pattern of losing that everything he touches, he loses.
• 5:19
  Speaker 5: We saw it in 2018. We saw it in 2020.
• 5:21
  Speaker 5: We saw it in 2022. How many more times do
• 5:25
  Speaker 5: we have to go back to the same person and say,
• 5:27
  Speaker 5: and then finally decide maybe he's the problem? Because I
• 5:30
  Speaker 5: know he's the problem. Of course, many of the same
• 5:33
  Speaker 5: politicians who now publicly embrace Trump privately dread him. They
• 5:40
  Speaker 5: know what a disaster he's been and will continue to
• 5:43
  Speaker 5: be for our party. They're just too afraid to say
• 5:48
  Speaker 5: it out loud. Well, I'm not afraid to say the
• 5:52
  Speaker 5: hard truths out loud.
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: And what's that hard truth now, you may ask?
• 5:56
  Speaker 5: So, I will be voting for Trump.
• 5:59
  Speaker 6: Laughter Laughter So that was Haley on Wednesday at the, uh,
• 6:07
  Speaker 6: conservative think tank she's running these days.
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: She's always made it fairly clear that she won't be, uh,
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: you know, showing up at an endorsement event with Joe Biden,
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: but she had other options. She could continue speaking out
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: about Trump. She could have said that she was going
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: to write in some other Republican. She could have not
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: said anything at all about who she's voting for, but
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: you know, I guess in the end she just wanted
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: to be a part of the unified Reich. Uh, Dan,
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: why do you think she did it?
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: She was always going to do it. She just was.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, just– I know briefly to varying degrees amongst
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: the four of us deluded ourselves to think she may
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: do something different. But she said a lot of this
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: very similar stuff about Donald Trump in 2016 and then
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: joined his cabinet. Voting for him is frankly the least
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: she could do. But it's just– the reason this is
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: going to happen is because she is a Republican. She
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: wants a future in Republican politics. And that doesn't necessarily
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: mean that she will run for office again, although I'm
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: sure she's deluded herself into thinking she may do that.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: But if she does not vote, no matter what happens
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: in 2024, if she does not vote for Donald Trump,
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: it makes it very, very hard for her to have
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: any sort of say in what happens with this party next, right?
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Running for something, being in charge of something, being on
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: a board of a company run by Republicans, being in
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: think tanks, just this is the price of admission. And
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: so this is what she was going to do. It
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: is just it's very fitting with what we have seen
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: from Nikki Kelly over her whole career. Other than this
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: like brief three month period of fleeting courage and integrity.
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, and I will say, though, even then, she
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: said right between, I think, New Hampshire and South Carolina,
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: she was asked about this. So this is before the
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: South Carolina primary. And she said, I have a lot
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: of concerns about Trump. regaining the presidency, I have even
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: more concerns about Joe Biden being president. So that was
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: a bit of a tell right there. Like, so I never,
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: I never thought that she was going to like endorse
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: Joe Biden. I mostly thought this was going to happen.
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: I do think there was a small chance she would just, again,
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: not say anything. Or done the like, you know, what
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: we find annoying, but it was like the, I'm writing in,
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: you know, Ronald Reagan or something like that. Like she
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: could have, she could have done that too. It's just like,
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: and it makes me think, let's just, put the politics aside.
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: Let's say we're just too cynical about her political motives,
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: which I don't think we're being too cynical about.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: No, we're being overly generous probably, yes.
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: As a thought exercise. Look, I do think she might
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: genuinely believe that she has more concerns about Joe Biden
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: than Donald Trump. And if she does, that to me
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: is like a core part of the problem with so
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: many of these Republican politicians like your Chris Sununu's and
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: Nikki Haley's and all the rest. It's like they have
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: either deluded themselves into into thinking that mainstream Democratic policy,
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: which is what Joe Biden represents, he is a mainstream,
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: moderate Democratic president, that that's more dangerous than a lunatic
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: who may never leave the White House. Or they've deluded
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: themselves into thinking, you know what, Donald Trump, he's not
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: that bad. He's bad, but he's not that dangerous. But
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: either way, she has said basically the opposite throughout the
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: course of the whole campaign. Yeah.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Like, is she full of shit now or was she
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: full of shit then? That's the question.
• 9:24
  Speaker 5: Right.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: But at one point she was full of shit.
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: If you call someone unfit, unqualified to be president of
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: the United States, like, I just don't know how you
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: come back from that and say, yeah, I'm going to.
• 9:33
  Speaker 7: Vote for them.
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: Because why? They're unfit, but you don't like Joe Biden's policies?
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: It's pathetic. It's pathetic. At one point she said every
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: single thing that Donald Trump has said or put on
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: TV has been a lie. Okay. Trump would side with
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: a dictator who kills his opponents. Trump's going to side
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: with a madman who's made no bones about the fact
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: that he wants to destroy America. He's got my vote.
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: He's got my vote. it's just it's unreal so even
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: though she's been out of the race for a few
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: months now um she's still getting obviously 15 to 20
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: percent of the vote in the republican primaries we still
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: have republican primaries all primaries they're still happening do you
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: think her announcement makes it any harder to convince the
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: haley primary voters to vote for biden I.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: Think every time a former critic of Trump comes out
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: and says he's going to vote for Trump, it makes
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: it that much harder for people who have concerns to
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: break with their party, right? Just regular voters, right? Whether
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: that's Nikki Haley, Bill Barr, Chris Sununu. It creates more
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: of a permission structure for some of these Republicans to
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: just give in and go with the flow. Having said that,
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: there is no– Nikki Haley movement in this country, right?
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: Have you ever seen a single Nikki Haley bumper sticker
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: or t-shirt in your life? No, never. There are people
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: who are voting for Nikki Haley, but they are not
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: Nikki Haley voters, right? If their two choices presented to
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: them were Donald Trump and a tin of spam, spam
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: would get like double digits. Like it's just, that's what
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: it is. She is a imperfect vessel for anti-Trump sentiment.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: So those voters are still available. We're not in a
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: world like You were with Bernie Sanders, right? Those were
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders voters who were voting for him, right? And
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: what he said to them mattered. His endorsement of Hillary
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: Clinton mattered. When he came in for Hillary Clinton, it mattered.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton– there were Hillary Clinton voters in 2008 when
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: he ran as primary. Nikki Haley, many of her voters
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: couldn't pick her out of a lineup. That's not what
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: this is. And so her endorsement of Trump doesn't mean
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: that people are going to like move en masse. Like,
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: well– Our leader, Nikki, said we must go. So we
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: will go. It's not going to work that way. But
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: I still think, and our friends at The Bull works
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: along with me at this point, that every time a
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Republican does this, it makes it easier for other Republicans
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: to fall in line. So that's negative. But those voters,
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: those Haley voters that are still showing up are still
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: available to Joe Biden. They're still in his persuadable universe,
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: no matter who Nikki Haley says she's going to vote for.
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: Well, and not only are they available to Joe Biden,
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: I think what gets overlooked is a lot of these
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: voters could be Republicans who did already vote for Joe
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: Biden in 2020. And they still want to be Republicans, right?
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: They still want to register Republicans. They still want to
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: vote in a Republican primary. Because every time that Nikki
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: Haley wins 15%, 20% in these primaries, there's like, is
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: this good news for Democrats? Does Donald Trump have real
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: problems with, you know, he's not getting 20% of the
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: vote and stuff like that? And A, there's some who
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: will just automatically go and vote for Donald Trump, much
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: like Nikki Haley is now doing. There were probably in
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: the open primaries, there were probably a few Democrats who
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: jumped in.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: But a lot of independents under all circumstances.
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: A lot of independents in the open primaries as well.
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: But even in the closed Republican primaries, there's a segment
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: of registered Republicans who voted for Joe Biden in 2020
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: in every single swing state. So why wouldn't those people
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: vote for Nikki Haley if they're still registered in the
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: Republican Party and not voting in the Democratic primary?
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: Yes. We'd have to go through this state by state,
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: and it's a primary electorate versus general election electorate, but
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: the percentage of primary voters who are voting for Nikki
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: Haley is larger than the percentage of Republicans who voted
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: for Joe Biden by, in some cases, a factor of
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: two or three in some.
• 13:12
  Speaker 7: Of these states.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: This is not to say there's been lots of studies
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: that looked at this. There is a trend, even with
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: more stable candidates than Trump, of these zombie candidates he's
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: carrying on, people expressing their opposition. But there is something there,
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: and that is an available universe of voters for Joe Biden.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: Because people who are Republican primary voters who voted for
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden, those are the people that he needs to
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: get back. He has lost some of those people. And
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: so that is not a just Assumption they're going to
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: vote for him again. He needs to get them.
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: In fact, The Wilderness is back this weekend. We're going
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: to have two episodes drop on Sunday, May 26th. And
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: the second episode is all about soft Republican voters, two-time
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: Trump voters who are down on Donald Trump. Some of
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: them voted for Nikki Haley in the primary. And we're
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: going to have none other than Tim Miller and Sarah
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: Longwell on to talk about how to persuade these voters
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: to vote for Joe Biden.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: That was an excellent organic plug.
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: Wasn't it a good organic plug? I might do another one.
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: If I'm feeling good, I might do another one later on.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: I have one for you later on if you don't
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: nail it. So don't you worry.
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: All right, perfect. Yeah, so no, but the point is,
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: I do think there's like a... A lot of the
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: excitement is, I think, a bit misguided because I think
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: some of these are already Biden voters.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: You're right.
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: He needs to get them. He needs to keep them.
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: We don't need the other voters.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: We just need the Biden voters, right?
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: Well, yeah, we're going to lose some voters, too.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: We have to replace the ones we lost, but yes.
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I think there's a small percentage of those Haley
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: voters who are still not where Nikki Haley is and
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: are not quite ready to vote for Donald Trump again,
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: but are not quite ready to vote for Joe Biden either.
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: And I think they're going to matter a lot in
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: some of these swing states. All right. Let's talk about
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: the guy Nikki Haley called unhinged and unqualified. Fresh off
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: the latest instance of Trump playing footsies with Nazis, he
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: teamed up with Marjorie Taylor Greene to float a conspiracy
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: that Joe Biden tried to have Trump assassinated. He also
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: claimed on Thursday he'll be able to get his pal
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin to release Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: from prison, but only if Trump wins. Vote for me
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: and Evan will come home because I'm buddies with Vladimir Putin.
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: And also, outside his Manhattan criminal trial, Trump said that
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: Justice Juan Merchan hates him because the judge was born
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: in Colombia, which really teed up the Thursday rally in
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: the South Bronx that was part of the campaign's outreach
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: to Latino and black voters. The Biden campaign tried to
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: pre-butt the rally with a new ad targeted at black voters.
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: Let's listen. I'm Joe Biden, and I approve this message.
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: Of course I hate these people.
• 15:44
  Speaker 7: Donald Trump disrespecting black folk is nothing new. He was
• 15:47
  Speaker 7: sued for refusing to rent his apartments to black families
• 15:49
  Speaker 7: and called for the execution of five innocent black and
• 15:52
  Speaker 7: brown teenagers.
• 15:53
  Speaker 4: And it's more than anger.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: It's hatred.
• 15:55
  Speaker 7: It's why Trump stood with violent white supremacists, warned of
• 15:58
  Speaker 7: a bloodbath if he loses the next election, and if
• 16:00
  Speaker 7: he's president again, vowed to be a dictator who wants
• 16:03
  Speaker 7: revenge on his enemies. Now, who do you think that is?
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: Of course I hate these people.
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: So that line, of course, I hate these people, comes
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: from a 1989 interview that Trump did with Larry King
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: about the Central Park Five, who were the wrongly accused
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: men of color whom Trump said at the time should
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: be executed. Lots to unpack here, Dan, with all the
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: things I just mentioned that he has said over the
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: last couple of days. Do you think anything Trump said
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: or did this week could cause him problems with voters?
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: In theory, yes. In practice, no. Well, in theory, yes.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, yes, it should. In practice, most people who
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: have not made up their mind are not going to
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: hear any of those things, right? That is the world
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: in which we are living. That is the stage of
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: the campaign we're in. And so could it be a problem? Absolutely.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: Is it we're going to see it like show up
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: in the polls?
• 16:55
  Speaker 7: No, no.
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: I do think like politics aside, just so people know
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: what happened with the assassination attempt conspiracy. So Trump said
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: he was shown reports that Biden's DOJ authorized the FBI
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: to use deadly force when they raided Mar-a-Lago for the
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: nuclear secrets he stole that he's now not going to
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: face any accountability for because, of course, because he installed
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: a Trump judge who's now just letting him off the hook. Anyway,
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: then Marjorie Taylor Greene went a step further and accused
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: Biden and the FBI of planning to assassinate Trump. None
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: of this is true. The report that Trump and Marjorie
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: are referring to is the DOJ's standard policy limiting the
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: use of force during searches. It was the same exact
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: policy they use both at Mar-a-Lago and at Biden's home.
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: Same policy. So I guess Biden was just like, you know,
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: he was authorizing the FBI to also assassinate him, I guess.
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: And so I don't, you know, like you said, I'm
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: sure most people will not hear about this. It is
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: fucking dangerous, right? Telling your followers who have committed political
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: violence in the past, remember January 6th, that the president,
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: the government, has planned to assassinate you? Like, it's pretty
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: fucking dangerous.
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, look, I would say... I answered your question in
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: maybe a little.
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: Of a– I asked about the politics.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you asked about the politics. I answered it in
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: the context of persuadable voters. But there is consequences for
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: all of these things, right? There is a consequence for
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: the statement about the Wall Street Journal reporter, right? Like
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: how does Russia interpret that? Does that mean now that
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: they're just going to wait because they think they can
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: get something for him next year if Trump wins? So
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: that means that he will stay in a dangerous situation
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: in a Russian prison for longer because Trump can't keep
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: his yap shut. Accusing the Biden DOJ of trying to
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: murder him is something that could very obviously lead to violence,
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: as we have seen on so many occasions with the
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: things Trump says. And so will that move the polls?
• 18:52
  Speaker 5: No.
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: But does it make America more dangerous?
• 18:55
  Speaker 4: Yes.
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: Is it yet another example of why he should not
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: be allowed within 100 million miles of the White House?
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: Absolutely.
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: Absolutely.
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: So I'd love to get your thoughts on that Biden ad.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: There was also a radio ad as well that they
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: put out. I thought it was interesting that they went
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: back that far to 1989 in the Central Park Five
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: in the ad, just because I think there's just a
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: wealth of horribly racist, both shit that Donald Trump has
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: said and sort of he has four years of a
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: presidency where I don't think the presidency was very good
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: for or to black Americans. I was also interested in
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: both the radio ad and the television ad. They hit
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: the bloodbath remark. They hit the dictator stuff.
• 19:42
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: I thought that was just that must be that must
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: be polling well with them. I guess the Biden people
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: must see that that's polling well.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: Maybe I think. I would bet that that video ad,
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: we don't yet know where it's airing or if it's airing,
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: it probably seems like a digital ad, is more a
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: media play for this specific rally in New York. The
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: reason to do the Central Park Five is because it
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: is New York. One of the Central Park Five is
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: now a city councilman In New York? If this ad
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: were running in another part of the country, it may
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: not mean anything. But in New York, this is one
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: of the biggest stories of the last 50 years and
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: continues to be talked about this day because of Yusuf
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: Salam and his role in that and now his role
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: in the city council. But ultimately, the message feels a
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: lot like the message that Democrats have been using against
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: Trump since the beginning of the 2016 campaign that has
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: not shown any impact and in fact, the numbers with
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: voters of color have gotten worse over time, not better.
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: And so I'd be interested to know what the strategy
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: behind some of the specific mentions in there, maybe the
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: dictator thing polls, but the calling out Trump. Trump's racism
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: should be called out. It should always be called out.
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: But that is a necessary but not sufficient argument to
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: win over voters of any stripe, I think we've seen.
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure. And I imagine that as the campaign
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: goes on, that some of the ads that they'll put
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: real money behind, especially if they're trying to target Black
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: voters with those ads will talk about Donald Trump wanting
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: mandatory stop and frisk in every city in the country.
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: Or maybe they'll remind people that he wanted the military
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: to shoot protesters in the legs who were protesting George
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: Floyd's murder. He wants to make sure police officers can
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: never be sued for killing unarmed Black people or anyone.
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: And then also, of course, like if you, you know,
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: if you ask Black voters what they care about most,
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: it's much like all voters, right? Cost of living, right?
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: And Donald Trump wants to take away healthcare, wants them
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: to pay more for prescriptions, pay higher taxes, just like
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: he does white Americans, just as he does Latino Americans,
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: Asian Americans. So I would imagine that they're going to
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: probably make those arguments as the campaign goes on.
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: The Biden campaign actually has a track of ads they've
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: had up. I don't know if they're up right now,
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: but they've been up multiple times this year, targeted at
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: black voters. And it's a lot of economic stuff and
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: particularly things of Joe Biden has delivered for the black community,
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: lowest black unemployment in history, additional funding for historically black colleges, universities,
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: a whole bunch of things, including the Affordable Care Act.
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: We're recording this before the rally, but what do you
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: think of the Trump campaign's decision to organize a big
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: crowd in a deep blue neighborhood that's majority non-white?
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: That's kind of scary smart.
• 22:29
  Speaker 7: Yeah.
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: I was going to say, like, I wonder, it'll obviously get,
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: it's going to get press attention, right? I mean, that's a,
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: and it's New York, so it's going to get a
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: lot of attention. Apparently the Young Republican Club and the
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: various Republican organizations in New York City, which by the way,
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: we've talked about this before, but they're as right-wing as
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: they get. Very fascist adjacent. They have been like working
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: overtime organizing like every Trump supporter they can find in
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: New York to get to this event. So I wouldn't
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: be surprised if it was a big crowd. But yeah,
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: it seems like it's a smart thing to do.
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: It's like politics is about identity, right? And people really
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: want to vote with their peers, right? And if you
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: create this impression that there are large numbers of– it's
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: a false impression, even based on the polls. But if
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: you create this impression there are large numbers of black
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: voters and Latino voters who are saying, I am for Trump,
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: that is creating an environment that makes it more welcoming
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: for others who may be angry at Joe Biden for
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: some reason, disenchanted with politics more broadly, mad at the
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: Democrats or whatever it is, who give them a reason
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: to think more seriously about going over to vote for Republicans,
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: something that seemed absolutely impossible not too many years ago.
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah. It made me think that Joe Biden should go
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: to small towns and rural areas with both white voters
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: and Black voters who are often in rural areas and
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: do events there because you sort of create the same
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: permission structure for The geographic divide, which is quite big
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: in politics right now.
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, that was a thing that Obama used to
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: do all the time. We did a lot of events
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: in rural areas, places you would never expect to see
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: someone named Barack Hussein Obama, right? He spoke at a
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: megachurch in 2008, even though most of the people in
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: the room did not agree with him, probably wouldn't vote
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: for him to send a message that his campaign was
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: open to them.
• 24:28
  Speaker 7: All right.
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: So this is the part of the show where we
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: note that despite all the latest Trump craziness, if the
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: election were held today, he would probably win. He's got
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: a one point lead in the national polling average. He's
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: got a slightly bigger lead in the swing states. A
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: lot of new high quality polling came out this week.
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: And basically the race hasn't moved, even though it's now
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: late May. Trump is on trial and Biden is on
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: the air in every swing state. This has unsurprisingly led
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: to another round of punditry that I'm sure the Biden
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: team is super excited about. Lots of smiles in Wilmington
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: overall last week, I'm sure. Trigger warning. We're about to
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: mention Ezra Klein's latest column in case any of you
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: feel the need to skip ahead. You want to just
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: skip right to the Sam Alito second flag. No worries.
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: We're going to talk about Ezra Klein. I thought it
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: was interesting because Ezra offered seven theories about why Trump
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: is currently ahead. One, the polls are wrong. Two, it's
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: the media's fault. Three, it's a bad time to be
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: an incumbent. Four, voters are angry about high prices and
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: high interest rates. Five, voters think Biden's too liberal. Six,
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: voters think Biden's too old. And seven, Democrats aren't defining
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: Trump in the most effective way. Ezra doesn't believe every
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: one of those headings, but that's sort of the theories
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: that he threw out there that are being talked about.
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: And it's true, those conversations are conversations about some combination
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: of those theories are taking place among Democratic operatives, activists, strategists,
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: all trying to understand what is driving Trump's battleground advantage
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: at this stage in the campaign. What did you think
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: of the piece? And did any of those theories stand
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: out to you?
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I thought it was interesting because it really was
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: the summary of the ongoing conversation that we've been having
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: with each other on this podcast, off with other people
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: we know from politics. Everyone is trying to figure out
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: what the hell is going on here? Because it is–
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: if you just kind of like take a step back
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: and you just like wrote it as a political science
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: 101 midterm question, right? You have a candidate trying to
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: violently overthrow the election. He's currently on trial for a
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: felony and is facing 88 federal felony indictments. Should that
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: candidate be up by one? The answer is no. It's
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: a hard thing to explain. And I do appreciate that
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: Ezra kind of knocked down some of the– what I
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: think are the The coping mechanisms that some Democrats have used,
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: the idea that the polls are wrong. I mean, maybe
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: they are, but there's no evidence of that. And in
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: the past when the polls have been wrong in presidential elections,
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: they've been wrong in a way that's not good for us, right?
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: There's that. And I also think, look, I mean, the
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: polls in 2022, I know everyone's like, oh, red wave.
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: The polls in 2022 were more accurate than any cycle
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: since 1998. Now that's a midterm. What about a presidential?
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: The last two presidentials, the polls have been off. Like
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: you said- They have been overestimating Democratic support for Hillary
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: Clinton and Joe Biden, not under. But who knows? Maybe
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: they could be off again. It's presidential races, different, different electorate.
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: But the polls for Democrats not named Biden are quite
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: good right now. That's the challenge. And so some of
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: the same polls that are showing Joe Biden behind are
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: showing Ruben Gallego, Tammy Baldwin, pick your Senate candidate, pick
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: your governor ahead. And so that's the challenge with the polls. Again, though, polls,
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: of course, could all be wrong. There could be a
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: systemic error. That's something that has to do with just
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump and just Joe Biden. Who knows? But I
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: don't know if we should all hang our hats on that.
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's possible. And there's a sense that they're all
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: over the map, right? We had the New York Times
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: poll which had Biden up double digits in Nevada. We
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: had a Bloomberg Morning Consult poll that had it tied
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: in that state. But there is an internal logic to
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: all of them, right? When you look at all the polls,
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: it's very clear that Trump is doing a little bit
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: better nationally. than he did before with a certain set
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: of number of groups. And that's kind of consistent across
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: all the polls. So whatever the margin is, we kind
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: of know where we are and it's not where we
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: want to be, right? It doesn't mean we can't get
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: to a better place. That's where we are. I think
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: we have massively overcomplicated this election in our head. Like
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: if this was Joe Biden running against Nikki Haley, Marco Rubio,
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis, pick a random Republican, we wouldn't even bother
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: trying to explain it. It'd be so obvious. People aren't
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: happy with the economy. They cite the economy and inflation
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: in particular as the number one issue deciding their vote
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: in the New York Times poll. Three times as many
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: people pick that issue as any other issue. And Donald
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: Trump has a 20-point advantage on the issue. That's it.
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: That is the explanation. All the other things Ezra mentioned,
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: like yes, is Biden's age, does that not help things? Absolutely.
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: Is being an incumbent at a time where people really
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: want major change and are an ancestor of the country
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: a problem? Absolutely. Is that fueled by people being mad
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: about inflation? Absolutely. But I think it's like the polls
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: are telling us very clearly what the problem is. But
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: it's because Donald Trump is such a unique and odious
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: figure that we sort of have to complicate it in
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: our head. People are mad about the economy. They're mad
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: about high prices. They're blaming the incumbent and they think
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: the other guy is better. And he has an advantage
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: because he is not a blank slate to them. He
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: happens to be the person who was in charge of
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: the economy by pure chance when eggs were cheaper. That's
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: what it is, right?
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: And I want to dig into the economic theory too,
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: because it's popped up every now and then, but I
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: have seen a very popular theory is that the media
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: has screwed this up. And it's the media. And Ezra
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: talks about this. It's the media's fault is one explanation
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: that I've seen a lot of Democrats and media critics
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: sort of glom on to. And, you know, there's two
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: flavors of this. One is the media is not adequately
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: communicating to people the threat that Donald Trump poses.
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: But just in terms of where the economy is, the
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: complaint is that the media is not giving Joe Biden
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: enough credit for all of the objectively good economic statistics
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: out there. And there are many, right? Unemployment, low, stock
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: market doing great, right? So there's plenty of, and inflation
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: has come down. But on the media, and Ezra makes
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: this point, and we cited this poll back when it
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: came out, it was an NBC poll. Biden leads by
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: 49 points among people who get most of their news
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: from newspapers. 20 points among people who get most of
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: their news from newspapers. Network television news, 10 points among
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: people who get most of their news from digital news sites.
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: Those are like he is winning by huge margins. Those voters.
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: Where is Joe Biden losing people who get most of
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: their news from social media, from cable news? Sure. Fox
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: is a big part of that. Google, YouTube. And he's
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: losing by the biggest margin of all. Among voters who
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: don't follow political news at all, Trump is winning people
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: who do not follow any political news, do not look
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: at the horrible headlines that the New York Times has
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: decided to run with or some CNBC on the economy.
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: 26 points Trump is winning those voters by. And I
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: do think that the incumbent issue and the economic issues
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: are also tied together. Yeah, of course. And Ezra sort
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: of isn't as convinced about this because he's like, well,
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: incumbent Democratic governors are really popular right now. But I
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: think that that's not a real apples to apples comparison
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: with Joe Biden. I think the best apples to apples
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: comparison is Joe Biden and other world leaders. And other
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: world leaders who are incumbents are very unpopular right now,
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: much like Joe Biden. And it doesn't matter what political
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: persuasion they are, what party they are in their country.
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: It's because they have all been incumbents. through the inflationary backlash,
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: we got to COVID, to the pandemic. And so inflation
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: didn't just hit the United States, it hit everywhere. And
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: every single, most incumbents all over the world are struggling
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: with their popularity because of inflation. And that's not because
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: the media told people that like, you know, they didn't
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: tell people that the economy was good enough. It's because
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: prices are still high. And when you notice the prices
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: are high, not just in the grocery store, but housing
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: and cars, which are like two of the biggest, purchases
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: people make, that's going to annoy people. It's just going to.
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: And I don't understand why it's a big mystery to
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: people why so many voters are upset about the economy,
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: but it seems to be.
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, several things can be true at the
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: same time, right? It can be true that the media
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: is not giving Joe Biden enough credit for the economy
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: and has a lot of bad headlines, but it's also true.
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: That- You've got to separate that from how much effect
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: it's had.
• 33:09
  Speaker 7: Right.
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: Exactly. And it is also true that Joe Biden has
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: done a phenomenal job on the economy. He inherited an
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: absolute shitshow of from his predecessor, we are doing better
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: than the rest of the world in terms of growth
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: and inflation. And because of a lot of the decisions
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden has made, the things he was able to accomplish,
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: but that does not change the fact that people are
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: still unhappy. And we are now at a point, we
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: are less than six months before the election, that this
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: is the environment this election is going to take place in,
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: is this political environment, right? A few months ago, there
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: was a sense that maybe the economy is feeling much better.
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: People were feeling better about it. We were going to
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: be sort of on an upswing as the election happened.
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: Maybe that could still happen, but we can't assume that, right?
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: We should assume that this is what it's going to
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: look like six months from now. We have to have
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: strategies that account for that.
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: Did you talk about any of these polls on Polar
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: Coaster this week? What do you think?
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: We did not talk about these on Polar Coaster. I'm
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: so glad you brought it up. We talked about a
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: couple other things. One thing we talked about is a
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: very fascinating poll about which celebrities– would be most influential
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: with young voters.
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: That was a wild list.
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: Yes, I sent you the list. You should check it out.
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: It really runs against what a lot of people think
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: and really fascinating numbers on Taylor Swift. We talked about
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: a whole bunch of different polls. The other thing we
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: did talk about is we got a lot of questions
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: from people who were basically looking at the New York
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: Times poll, this poll that we just talked about saying,
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: is it all over? Are we screwed? Panic, panic, panic.
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: And I made my best case for why Democrats should
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: have optimism going forward, a realistic sense of optimism. But
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: this went through what the numbers say about what the
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: path forward looks for Democrats and why Joe Biden has
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: a very clear path to win this race. Maybe a
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: narrow path, but it is a very clear path. So
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: that's what you should check out.
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: And I will say, you know, when I first started
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: reading Ezra's column, the headline made me think that he
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: was going to give a lot of advice on how
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: to turn this around. He did not give as much advice, which,
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: you know, he's not a Democratic strategist. Everyone's got advice
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: for Joe Biden and his campaign. I'm sure they have
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: plenty of it. We've given it to him. I actually
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: think that like what's more important at this stage is
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: what we all do on this. Like we have agency too.
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: You say this all the time. And again, I'm going
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: to get, this is my second organic plug. This is
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: what we're doing on the wilderness this season. Is that
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: hopefully all of you listening, first of all, hopefully you've
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: all signed up at votesaveamerica.com slash 2024 and are going
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: to go volunteer and are going to talk to voters. And,
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: you know, you'll get lists of voters to talk to
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: from the campaign, whether it's texting on the phone or
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: knocking on doors. But also one of the most effective
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: ways of persuading people is to persuade the people in
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: your life, because those are the people who trust you most.
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: And so what we're going to do is go through
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: each sort of demographic group of voters that Biden needs
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: to win over, or at least is like, you know,
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: on the edge of the winning 2020 coalition and talk
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: to you about what the most effective messages are to
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: actually persuade them based on you know, a lot of
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: focus groups and polling that a lot of really smart
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: strategists and pollsters are doing all the time. That's just
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: not getting out to most people. So that's what we're
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: going to do, because I think, you know, we can
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: give all the advice we want to the Biden campaign.
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: There's only so much we can control. It's going to
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: be up to Joe Biden. It's going to be up
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: to his campaign. But that does not absolve us of
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: the responsibility to do whatever we can to save democracy
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: and talk to as many people as we can, because,
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: you know, it's a future that We're going to all
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: have to live through much longer, probably, than Joe Biden
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: and Donald Trump. Jesus Christ. Well, and our kids, right? Like,
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: our kids will live through it longer than I will,
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: I hope.
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: All right, okay.
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: All right, just move on. Transition to the next topic.
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: It's just not, like, so much of this is through
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: the lens of, like, I want to punish Joe Biden,
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: or Joe Biden fucked up this election because he did this,
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: or I'm out, or even, I don't want, I want
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: to punish Donald Trump, or whatever. It's really not about them.
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: It's about us. It is about us and our future.
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: And it's about the people you know and the future
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: they're going to have to. So get out there and
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: get working. And, you know, well, hopefully we can help
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: with the wilderness. Hopefully the polar coaster can help. And
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: also Vote Save America can help as well. So, all right,
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: before we get to Andrew Weissman's take on the end
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: of Trump's criminal trial, we need to talk about the
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: news that Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito got caught again
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: flying a different January 6th related flag. In another one
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: of his homes. I have to laugh because what else
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: are you going to do? This flag is called the
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: Appeal to Heaven flag that appears to have been flying
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: in front of his New Jersey vacation house last summer.
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: The flag dates back to the Revolutionary War. And for
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: Tommy and the other philosophy nerds out there, it invokes
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: John Locke's theory of revolution against unjust government. Just a
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: little fun fact for you. But the equally relevant context
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: is that multiple January 6th rioters waved it, waved this flag,
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: at Trump's Stop the Steal speech and during the siege
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: of the Capitol. It's also been used by right-wing militias
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: and Christian nationalists. And now, a Supreme Court justice. So,
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: no comment on the latest freak flag from Sam Alito
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: or his wife, Martha Ann, or the Supreme Court. What
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: do you think? Like, is there anything else Congress can
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: do or anyone in a position of authority? Or should
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: there be an investigation? Or is this just like something
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: to keep in mind? as we're talking people about their
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: vote choice in November.
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: I think we should investigate it. Absolutely. Let's have a
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: hearing about it, right?
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: Dick Durbin doesn't seem too high on that. Dick Durbin's like, yeah,
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: it's crazy. It's awful. But I don't know. I don't
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: know what a hearing is going to get us.
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: You know, attention. That's something. It's got value. We should
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: remind people that we have a guy flying a Christian
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: nationalist insurrectionist flag over his home while deciding cases that
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: allow the insurrectionist former president to avoid going to prison.
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: For said insurrection.
• 39:04
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: That seems like.
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: Something to talk about. It seems notable. It seems notable.
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: He's got a lifetime appointment on the Supreme Court. And
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: if Donald Trump wins, we could get a couple more
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: Sam Alitos on the court.
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: Young Sam Alitos.
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: Maybe we get Ginny and Martha Ann just to make
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: sure that there's more women on the court.
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: There'll be their, their grandchildren, their granddaughters will be out there.
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: That's true.
• 39:26
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: They're way too old. Yeah. We don't want that. We
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: don't want the wives on there. We want the kids.
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Great grandkids. 30 year old people who can fly flags.
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: Oh my God. It's unbelievable. Um, all right, before we
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: get to, uh, Andrew Weissman, two quick things. You may
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: have heard the news that British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: called a snap election for July 4th that will determine
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: whether Labour can win control after 14 years of Conservative
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: Party rule. So this is what I was talking about.
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: Rishi Sunak. He's a right-wing politician. Very unpopular. Very, very unpopular.
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: We're still not in the predictions business here at Crooked,
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: but that would certainly make for a Happy Independence Day.
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: Our friends Nish and Coco have recorded a special episode
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: of Pod Save the UK to break down why this
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: election is so critical and what we should expect from
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: the next six weeks of campaigning. Listen in the Pod
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: Save the UK feed available wherever you get your podcasts. Also,
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: this Saturday marks one month until the release of the
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: book that Lovett, Tommy, and I wrote, Democracy or Else,
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: How to Save America in 10 Easy Steps. Democracy or
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: Else is a guide for anyone who wants to get
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: involved in the 2024 election. and all of the elections
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: that come after, if there are any. It's a quick read.
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: We made it easy for you with lots of jokes, illustrations.
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: There's some jokes, by the way, this is a plug
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: for the book. There's some jokes that I cannot believe
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: made it into the book. They're that crazy. Buy the
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: book just to read some of these jokes.
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: Buy the book to read the edits I made that
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: were not accepted, which was mostly taking out some of
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: those jokes.
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Dan tried. I tried.
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: So, you know.
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: I'll tell you the person who wouldn't let the jokes
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: be taken out. Well, he could be at a tribal
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: council right now. We don't know. But anyway, I just
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: got the hardcover came yesterday.
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: It's a good feeling, right?
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's great. It was like, wow. And you know what?
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: It feels thin enough for people like me who don't
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: read a lot of books that it wasn't intimidating, which
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: is even easier.
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: That's good.
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: So we are getting closer and closer to our pre-order
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: goal in hopes of landing on the New York Times
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: bestseller list. which will in turn help more folks discover
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: the book and get inspired to get off the sidelines
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: and get involved. And also, again, we don't want Kristi
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: Noem and her fucking dog killer book beating us. We
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: don't want whatever else. I don't know whether right wing
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: loonies are out there with books, but we don't want
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: them at the top of the New York Times bestseller list.
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: We want democracy or else up there.
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: You don't want me beating you. Think of all the
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: shit I'm going to give you. The three of you
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: can't do better than I do.
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: Oh, my gosh. Well, you know. Cricket's donating the profits
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: to support Vote Save America and 2024 campaigns, so you're
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: making a difference just by pre-ordering. It's the best thing.
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: You order a book, you get to read the book,
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: and you get to know that your money is going
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: to Vote Save America. It's a win-win-win. Democracy or Else
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: is out June 25th, but you can pre-order now at cricket.com
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: slash books or wherever books are sold. When we come back,
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: Andrew Weissman. This week in Donald Trump's Manhattan election interference trial,
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: the prosecution and defense rested their cases. Summations will happen
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: next week after the Memorial Day break. And here to
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: guarantee us that Donald Trump will be held accountable and
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: justice will be served is friend of the pod and
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: former prosecutor Andrew Weissman, host of the excellent MSNBC podcast,
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: Prosecuting Donald Trump. Andrew, welcome back.
• 42:54
  Speaker 4: Nice to be here. I'll see if I can fulfill
• 42:57
  Speaker 4: that promise.
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: No pressure. It's only democracy hanging in the balance here.
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to.
• 43:03
  Speaker 4: Be rendering a verdict at the end of the podcast.
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: Okay, perfect. That's how we set this up.
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: That's what we're looking for. Yeah.
• 43:10
  Speaker 4: Actually, you know what? I think I'll save it for
• 43:13
  Speaker 4: the prosecuting Donald Trump podcast. So we can tee it up,
• 43:17
  Speaker 4: but then you can tease it here. That seems fair. Yeah.
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: Which is a podcast, by the way, I never miss.
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: I was just listening to it this morning.
• 43:25
  Speaker 4: Mary McCord is the best.
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: You guys are great.
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: You really are, both of you.
• 43:29
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: So we know the jury won't start deliberating until next week,
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: but before they can deliberate, The judge needs to give
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: them jury instructions, which the lawyers are supposed to get
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: from the judge any moment now, maybe by the end
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: of today, which is Thursday. Can you talk about what
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: jury instructions are, why they're so critical, and what we
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: know so far about the jury instructions for this case
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: based on sort of some of the arguments we heard
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: when the lawyers were going over the potential instructions with
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: the judge.
• 44:03
  Speaker 4: Yeah, so this is the part of the case that
• 44:06
  Speaker 4: when you're a trial lawyer, it's the most boring part
• 44:08
  Speaker 4: of the case. And all you're thinking about is, you know,
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: your summation and putting that together and crafting that. And
• 44:16
  Speaker 4: then just before you have to do that, you have
• 44:18
  Speaker 4: to meet with the judge and go over jury instructions.
• 44:22
  Speaker 4: And if you're an appellate lawyer, you'll love it. And
• 44:25
  Speaker 4: what it is, is both sides are trying to convince
• 44:30
  Speaker 4: the judge to recount the law in the way that's
• 44:34
  Speaker 4: most favorable to their position. So let me just give
• 44:38
  Speaker 4: you an example from this case. A lot of people
• 44:42
  Speaker 4: have talked about, well, there's different and slightly conflicting testimony
• 44:50
  Speaker 4: about was Donald Trump doing this because he was concerned
• 44:54
  Speaker 4: about the 2016 election and that's why he was engaged
• 44:57
  Speaker 4: in this sort of catch and kill scheme? Or was
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: he concerned about the reaction of Melania? Well, the law
• 45:04
  Speaker 4: actually answers that because if the judge instructs that you
• 45:12
  Speaker 4: 100% have to show that he was only thinking about
• 45:16
  Speaker 4: the campaign, then that's a really hard standard. And that's
• 45:20
  Speaker 4: what the defense would want. And what the DA wants
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: is something that says, you know what, you can have
• 45:27
  Speaker 4: dual motives. By the way, that is the law. So
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: that is what I expect we're going to find out
• 45:32
  Speaker 4: either late today or certainly early tomorrow from the judge.
• 45:37
  Speaker 4: So that's why the law matters, because it tells the
• 45:39
  Speaker 4: jury what it is they would need to find beyond
• 45:43
  Speaker 4: a reasonable doubt in order to find Donald Trump guilty.
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: Are there any unresolved questions around jury instruction that you're
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: most interested in hearing where Justice Mershon comes down?
• 45:58
  Speaker 4: Not really.
• 45:59
  Speaker 5: Okay.
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: So you think it's going to be pretty clear cut?
• 46:02
  Speaker 4: This is one where I've seen people pearl clutching for
• 46:06
  Speaker 4: the last two days. I've never seen so much interest
• 46:09
  Speaker 4: in jury instructions in the last couple of days. And obviously,
• 46:13
  Speaker 4: it is important to And obviously around the edges, there
• 46:18
  Speaker 4: are little things, but I don't expect any surprises. And,
• 46:25
  Speaker 4: you know, this is when, first of all, the DA
• 46:28
  Speaker 4: isn't going to have brought this case if he wasn't
• 46:30
  Speaker 4: confident in just settled middle of the road cases. law
• 46:36
  Speaker 4: being given. And even when you see the DA asking
• 46:40
  Speaker 4: for certain things or the defense asking for certain things,
• 46:43
  Speaker 4: the judge is pretty clear from the oral argument he
• 46:45
  Speaker 4: heard that he's going to go with standard jury instructions.
• 46:49
  Speaker 4: Every court has standard jury instructions. And I think that's
• 46:53
  Speaker 4: what he's going to give here. So I'm not that
• 46:55
  Speaker 4: concerned about the edges because the main part of the law,
• 47:01
  Speaker 4: I think, will be pretty clear. I'm a So that
• 47:08
  Speaker 4: could lead to sort of hyper-technical, not to denigrate lawyers,
• 47:14
  Speaker 4: but that's what we do. We sort of overanalyze things.
• 47:19
  Speaker 4: So I'm more worried about that than the actual charge
• 47:22
  Speaker 4: that the judge gives.
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: We haven't covered the defense case much on this podcast.
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: What did you make of their case? And why did
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: they call Robert Castillo? What were they trying to achieve
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: with that witness?
• 47:34
  Speaker 4: You know, I'm not sure I'd call the defense case
• 47:36
  Speaker 4: a defense case. I think it was actually a prosecution case.
• 47:39
  Speaker 4: I've got that sense from your podcast, yes. I don't know,
• 47:42
  Speaker 4: but I know that that could not ever have come
• 47:49
  Speaker 4: from the defense lawyers. You do not call Robert Costello
• 47:55
  Speaker 4: if you're... if you're a trial lawyer. I know Susan Nicklaus,
• 48:01
  Speaker 4: she's excellent, and she just wouldn't do that. Okay, but
• 48:07
  Speaker 4: to answer your question, what were they hoping to get?
• 48:10
  Speaker 4: If Robert Costello had presented himself differently and, in my view,
• 48:17
  Speaker 4: sort of heared more credible, he was there to say
• 48:21
  Speaker 4: that Michael Cohen sort of swore up one side and
• 48:25
  Speaker 4: down the other that he had no information about Donald
• 48:29
  Speaker 4: Trump paying Stormy Daniels at the time that essentially this
• 48:35
  Speaker 4: is all fabricated and that he had a huge incentive
• 48:39
  Speaker 4: to say something because I, Robert Costello, told him that
• 48:45
  Speaker 4: this whole case could go away if you essentially could
• 48:49
  Speaker 4: use Donald Trump as a meal ticket. And so I
• 48:51
  Speaker 4: think those were the two things that, if believed, would
• 48:57
  Speaker 4: help undermine Michael Cohen's credibility. And so I think that's why,
• 49:02
  Speaker 4: that would be the reason to call him. There are many, many,
• 49:06
  Speaker 4: many reasons not to.
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: I think we saw some of those in action.
• 49:10
  Speaker 7: Yes.
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: Would attorneys with a more cooperative client have called different witnesses,
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: or was the bulk of their case they were trying
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: to achieve that on cross with Stormy Daniels and Michael Cohen,
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: most importantly?
• 49:23
  Speaker 4: You know, that is one of the things that's hard
• 49:25
  Speaker 4: when you are an outsider. And certainly when I was
• 49:28
  Speaker 4: doing these cases, it's really hard to judge the first
• 49:32
  Speaker 4: part of your question, which is who else would you call?
• 49:35
  Speaker 4: So we don't know the options they had. We don't know,
• 49:40
  Speaker 4: for instance, would Keith Schiller have been a good witness?
• 49:43
  Speaker 4: He obviously could have said, I never had this famous
• 49:49
  Speaker 4: phone call on October 24th where Michael Cohen says, I,
• 49:53
  Speaker 4: Keith Schiller, got a call and I handed it over
• 49:56
  Speaker 4: to the president, then candidate Trump. And he could say
• 50:01
  Speaker 4: that didn't happen. He could say, Stormy Daniels, you know,
• 50:06
  Speaker 4: Stormy Daniels said he was outside the room. He actually,
• 50:09
  Speaker 4: he was the one who invited her to dinner, the
• 50:11
  Speaker 4: dinner where she didn't get dinner. Says, Keith Schiller is
• 50:15
  Speaker 4: the one who invited me. He was outside the door.
• 50:17
  Speaker 4: Keith Schiller could have said, you know, that didn't happen.
• 50:21
  Speaker 4: We don't know the reason why they didn't call him
• 50:26
  Speaker 4: and instead they chose Costello. You know, my own two
• 50:30
  Speaker 4: cents is, If the best they had was Costello, it
• 50:34
  Speaker 4: makes you think Schiller must have been even worse, which...
• 50:39
  Speaker 4: by the way, it's hard to imagine, just, you know,
• 50:41
  Speaker 4: the problem with Costello was not just his demeanor and
• 50:44
  Speaker 4: what he was doing on the stand and the sort
• 50:46
  Speaker 4: of disrespect and the outbursts and the jury seeing all
• 50:50
  Speaker 4: of that and somewhat of his misogynistic tone and cracks
• 50:55
  Speaker 4: to Susan Hoffinger, the DA who was asking questions, but
• 50:59
  Speaker 4: also he had all these black and white emails that
• 51:02
  Speaker 4: made it absolutely clear that he was doing this on
• 51:05
  Speaker 4: the part of Rudy Giuliani and the and the president
• 51:08
  Speaker 4: of the United States exactly what Michael Cohen had said.
• 51:12
  Speaker 4: So he sort of had two huge problems.
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: So making the prosecution's case is not what you want
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: in a defense witness, huh?
• 51:20
  Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly.
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: So let's talk about closing arguments. We will not put
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: you on the spot to just come up with a
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: closing argument right now. But if you were the prosecutor,
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: how would you prepare for Tuesday and what would you
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: be focusing on? What are the most important points you
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: think they should hit?
• 51:39
  Speaker 4: When I was in the U.S. Attorney's Office and I
• 51:41
  Speaker 4: was the criminal chief, I would go into these impromptu closings.
• 51:45
  Speaker 4: Someone would come in and they'd present a problem who
• 51:47
  Speaker 4: was like a junior AUSA and I'd be like, here's
• 51:50
  Speaker 4: what you're going to do. And you just start immediately
• 51:52
  Speaker 4: going into your closing argument. So one of the things,
• 51:56
  Speaker 4: just to pick up on Costello, is one of the
• 51:58
  Speaker 4: things I think you have to do is I think
• 52:00
  Speaker 4: he is so much affirmative proof that you want to
• 52:04
  Speaker 4: make sure that the jury doesn't do what I think
• 52:07
  Speaker 4: sometimes a juror has an inclination to say, oh, that's
• 52:10
  Speaker 4: the defense case. I don't believe that it was bad.
• 52:13
  Speaker 4: And they move it aside as if it's not a
• 52:16
  Speaker 4: proof that they can use affirmatively in their case. And
• 52:18
  Speaker 4: I think you definitely want to, that's a small point,
• 52:21
  Speaker 4: but you want to make sure that you've integrated it
• 52:24
  Speaker 4: in and actually just say that to the jury. I
• 52:27
  Speaker 4: think there are sort of two big things. I think
• 52:31
  Speaker 4: that they need to make sure that the jury is
• 52:36
  Speaker 4: looking at all of the proof together. Because in every trial,
• 52:41
  Speaker 4: what happens is the prosecution wants to make sure that
• 52:45
  Speaker 4: the jury is thinking about all of it and the
• 52:49
  Speaker 4: unlikely nature of the defense position that all of these
• 52:55
  Speaker 4: things could be happening. And the defense wants to sort
• 52:58
  Speaker 4: of isolate pieces of proof and look at a little
• 53:01
  Speaker 4: leaf and say, well, that leaf isn't a tree, and
• 53:03
  Speaker 4: that leaf isn't a tree. And so the strength of
• 53:07
  Speaker 4: the government's case here is the constellation of witnesses and documents,
• 53:14
  Speaker 4: and then the argument that how does Allen Weisselberg and
• 53:18
  Speaker 4: Michael Cohen know about the scheme and not tell Donald Trump?
• 53:22
  Speaker 4: What would be the possible argument for that? And then
• 53:26
  Speaker 4: to walk through all of that. The second thing I
• 53:29
  Speaker 4: would do is I would almost isolate Michael Cohen and
• 53:32
  Speaker 4: talk about the whole case before you even get to
• 53:35
  Speaker 4: Michael Cohen. And in some ways, the way that the
• 53:38
  Speaker 4: case was structured, the order of proof makes that really easy.
• 53:42
  Speaker 4: And I think it was deliberate that they're going to say,
• 53:44
  Speaker 4: let's look at all the proof before you even get
• 53:46
  Speaker 4: to Michael Cohen and how strong the case is. And
• 53:49
  Speaker 4: then here's icing that you have from him.
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: And having followed the case as closely as you have,
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: what do you think the defense argument will be?
• 53:59
  Speaker 4: Michael Cohen is indispensable to a conviction, and no one
• 54:05
  Speaker 4: in this room would possibly in a million years say,
• 54:09
  Speaker 4: even if you say, you know what, I think he
• 54:10
  Speaker 4: seems like I sort of believe him on certain things,
• 54:13
  Speaker 4: no one would ever say that he is proof beyond
• 54:17
  Speaker 4: a reasonable doubt. And They called him because they knew
• 54:21
  Speaker 4: they needed it. And he provides pieces that they need.
• 54:26
  Speaker 4: He provides the piece about the direct knowledge of Donald
• 54:30
  Speaker 4: Trump to the false business records. And there's a reason
• 54:35
  Speaker 4: that he was there. And that is why you need
• 54:38
  Speaker 4: to acquit. I mean, he is obviously a very fallible witness.
• 54:43
  Speaker 4: I think the state just will flip that and say,
• 54:47
  Speaker 4: The reason he is, all of these things you're hearing
• 54:50
  Speaker 4: about him being such a louse is why he would
• 54:54
  Speaker 4: never in a million years fork over $ 130, 000 of his
• 54:59
  Speaker 4: own money out of the goodness of his heart, as
• 55:02
  Speaker 4: Hope Hicks said. And so I think you're going to
• 55:04
  Speaker 4: see a lot of sort of, you know, flipping of
• 55:07
  Speaker 4: the script on that by the state, which goes, by
• 55:11
  Speaker 4: the way, the way it works in the state court
• 55:13
  Speaker 4: is the defense goes first, the state goes second.
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: Oh, that's interesting.
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: Walk us through what happens after closing arguments. I know
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: this is a unique case, but how long do juries
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: normally take to deliberate? I mean, not to put pressure
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: on you, but we have a podcast schedule to try
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: to adhere to here.
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: As does Andrew.
• 55:31
  Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly. No one knows how long it takes. I
• 55:36
  Speaker 4: do want to flag one thing that will be really interesting,
• 55:40
  Speaker 4: but So the defense goes, the state goes, the judge
• 55:46
  Speaker 4: then gives jury instructions, and then the jurors go back
• 55:49
  Speaker 4: and deliberate. They can send out notes. They can have
• 55:53
  Speaker 4: questions about the law. They could ask to hear some
• 55:55
  Speaker 4: testimony back. And with respect to each of the 34 counts,
• 56:02
  Speaker 4: for each count, there is a verdict. It takes 12
• 56:06
  Speaker 4: on each count to convict. It takes 12 on each
• 56:10
  Speaker 4: count to acquit. You can't have an acquittal without all 12.
• 56:13
  Speaker 4: You can't have a conviction without all 12. And if
• 56:16
  Speaker 4: you're somewhere in between, it's called a hung jury. Sometimes
• 56:20
  Speaker 4: a jury sends out a note and says, we just
• 56:23
  Speaker 4: can't reach a verdict. And the judge sends them back saying,
• 56:25
  Speaker 4: you know, do your best, give it the old college try.
• 56:29
  Speaker 4: You can also have what's called a split verdict where
• 56:32
  Speaker 4: they reach a verdict of acquittal on some, a conviction
• 56:35
  Speaker 4: on some, or an acquittal on some and a hung
• 56:38
  Speaker 4: jury on some, or a conviction on some and a
• 56:41
  Speaker 4: hung jury, mix and match. One of the things to
• 56:44
  Speaker 4: keep an eye out, one of the ways that I
• 56:47
  Speaker 4: think you could have a split verdict here is the
• 56:51
  Speaker 4: checks that Donald Trump himself signed versus the ones that
• 56:56
  Speaker 4: his sons signed. And so the first 10 of the
• 57:02
  Speaker 4: 34 counts are not ones that Donald Trump himself signed.
• 57:06
  Speaker 4: So you could have this very nerve-wracking moment where the
• 57:09
  Speaker 4: first 10 counts are not guilty, but that doesn't mean
• 57:13
  Speaker 4: that it's going to be not guilty for all 34
• 57:16
  Speaker 4: because the test will be count 11, whether on that one.
• 57:20
  Speaker 4: So that's, you know, because I could see a jury saying,
• 57:23
  Speaker 4: you know what, maybe we'll give him the ones where
• 57:26
  Speaker 4: he didn't personally sign because that way, Each check was
• 57:31
  Speaker 4: that the false invoice was attached to it that he
• 57:35
  Speaker 4: could easily see that it was fake. And you could
• 57:39
  Speaker 4: see them thinking, okay, I'm going to convict on those,
• 57:43
  Speaker 4: but not the others.
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: I'm sure social media would handle that really well if
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: there was a 10 not guilty. Headlines will be up
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: in the New York Times and everywhere else before we
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: even get to count 11.
• 57:54
  Speaker 4: Oh, yeah. Like shit show.
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 57:57
  Speaker 4: That's the legal.
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: It seems appropriate in this case. Look, we don't do
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: predictions on our show, but obviously you can. And I
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: know you may be saving this for your podcast, which
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: everyone should subscribe to. But give me your best guess
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: what you think is going to happen here based on
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: how closely you've watched this case, what the prosecution has done,
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: what the defense have done, the evidence presented, et cetera.
• 58:18
  Speaker 4: So you're going to be really disappointed. So I'm going
• 58:22
  Speaker 4: to give you two answers. Neither are going to be satisfactory. One,
• 58:26
  Speaker 4: Every single trial I did as a prosecutor, I thought
• 58:29
  Speaker 4: I would lose. I was the most pessimistic person. And
• 58:34
  Speaker 4: every single note that a jury would come out with,
• 58:38
  Speaker 4: I would read it with trying to figure out the
• 58:40
  Speaker 4: most disadvantageous view. I'd be like, oh my God, we've lost.
• 58:45
  Speaker 4: Even with notes that were unbelievably favorable, like, in order
• 58:48
  Speaker 4: to convict, is it enough if we found two counts
• 58:51
  Speaker 4: against him? And I'd be like, okay, there's a problem.
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: That's generally my approach to politics, so I appreciate that, yes.
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: That's true, I was going to say.
• 58:59
  Speaker 4: Yeah, so that's sort of one sort of issue. And
• 59:06
  Speaker 4: I just think the other is that I just don't know.
• 59:12
  Speaker 4: I mean, there's so many things in this case that
• 59:16
  Speaker 4: are unknowns. If this was a normal case, if it
• 59:20
  Speaker 4: didn't involve a former president where I'm concerned about the
• 59:24
  Speaker 4: jury unconsciously thinking that there has to be more proof
• 59:29
  Speaker 4: and more direct proof, even though circumstantial proof is just
• 59:33
  Speaker 4: as good as direct proof under the law. But I
• 59:36
  Speaker 4: could see some jurors thinking that. I could also imagine
• 59:39
  Speaker 4: having been in high profile matters that there will be
• 59:43
  Speaker 4: a juror who doesn't want to deliberate, who has a
• 59:46
  Speaker 4: strong view one way or the other. But if it
• 59:48
  Speaker 4: was a normal case, And I was assessing this as
• 59:52
  Speaker 4: a prosecutor saying, should I bring the case? I would think, oh,
• 59:56
  Speaker 4: this is an incredibly strong case. I mean, I was
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 4: surprised how strong this case was. From the moment it
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 4: started with David Pecker, I thought, okay, David Pecker was
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 4: an incredibly good witness for the state and answered the question,
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 4: which I think a lot of us had, which is,
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 4: why bring this case? I was like, okay, maybe it's
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 4: a down... scale media outlet, but you have this media
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 4: outlet with a secret agreement to help a political candidate,
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 4: both by catching and killing and disseminating intentionally false stories
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 4: about his adversaries. I was like, okay, if I were
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 4: a juror, I'd be like, I understand why I should care.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Last question, we'll let you go. We had our
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: pal Norm Eisen on who has said that May 20th
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: was the date he was circling as to whether the
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: Supreme Court would hand down the decision on whether Trump
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: is immune from prosecution in the January 6th case. And
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: he thought that after that date, it would be very,
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: very difficult to have a case before the election. Do
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: you think the window has closed for a case before
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: the election on the January 6th charges?
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I thought it had closed just in
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 4: the way that they handled the the case and sort
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 4: of when they took it and the delay. And I
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 4: just have always thought that case has been pocket vetoed
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 4: by people who seem to have a penchant for flying
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 4: all sorts of flags around their homes and beach homes.
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 4: So I just always think that. I think the best
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 4: hope there is, is that in whatever standard they may
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 4: come up with, that it allows Judge Chutkin, the trial judge,
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 4: to hold a hearing on that issue about sort of
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 4: what is official conduct, what is private conduct. Because if
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 4: she can hold a hearing, she doesn't have to wait
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 4: to do that. She can just, and that, by the way,
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 4: when I say a hearing, I mean a factual hearing
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 4: where the prosecution can say, you know what, Mike Pence,
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 4: hop on the stand. So I think that's the, to me,
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 4: that's the only remaining possibility in terms of having an
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 4: additional factual presentation that the American public would, you know,
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 4: be able to not see live, but they would be
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 4: able to experience before the election.
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: Andrew Weissman, thank you so much for joining Pod Save America.
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: We'll put you down for guilty on all 34 counts.
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: Tweet that out, social team.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: Everyone check out Prosecuting Donald Trump with Andrew and Mary McCord.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: And thanks again for joining us and have a good one.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 4: Thanks so much.
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: Thanks to Andrew Weissman for joining the show. Everyone have
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: a fantastic weekend. And I think we are off on
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: Monday because it's Memorial Day. But then, you know, just
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: a million pods we'll have from us because we're here.
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: Bye, everyone. Before we go, I also want to say
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: happy birthday to Kyla, who turned six today.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: Kyla, happy birthday. That is fantastic.
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: Six years old. It's wild.
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: Happy birthday, Kyla. If you want to get ad-free episodes,
• 1:03:25
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• 1:03:28
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• 1:03:32
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• 1:03:45
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• 1:03:51
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