Latest / Look Forward / IMF Insights: Economic Resilience and AI's Impact

Transcript

IMF Insights: Economic Resilience and AI's Impact · Look Forward

• 0:06
  Hello, my name's Andy Critchlow.
• 0:07
  I'm head of news at S&P Global Commodity Insights, and welcome to the
• 0:12
  Look Forward Podcast from S&P Global.
• 0:15
  In today's rapidly shifting Markets success depends on
• 0:18
  anticipating what's next.
• 0:20
  The professionals who excel are those who can spot emerging trends
• 0:24
  before they fully materialize.
• 0:27
  The Look Forward podcast delivers exactly that insights to help you prepare for
• 0:32
  tomorrow's opportunities and challenges.
• 0:35
  We bring you expert perspectives on macroeconomic trends, capital markets,
• 0:40
  energy transition, and global trade.
• 0:43
  With a sharp focus on what these developments mean for the decisions
• 0:48
  that will shape your tomorrow.
• 0:50
  This podcast connects you with S&P global's Look Forward council bringing
• 0:55
  cutting edge research on long-term trends and transformative market shifts.
• 1:01
  Together we are committed to providing the forward-looking intelligence you need
• 1:06
  to navigate uncertainty with confidence.
• 1:09
  Welcome to this episode of the Look Forward Podcast.
• 1:12
  My name's Andy Critchlow.
• 1:13
  I'm head of news at S&P Global Commodity Insights, and I'm delighted
• 1:17
  to be joined today by Paul Gruenwald.
• 1:20
  Chief Economist at, S&P Global Ratings, and S&P Global, um, our chief thinker
• 1:29
  in actual fact on all things economics.
• 1:31
  And, Paul, you've been at the IMF meetings, um, recently.
• 1:37
  Um, I've been at a few things in the city of London recently, and, and everyone.
• 1:40
  Who, who was there?
• 1:41
  They were all saying, well, we heard this at the IMF meetings, and we heard
• 1:44
  that at the IMF meetings, and I, like many of our listeners, was not there.
• 1:49
  So I'm relying on you to shed a little bit of light.
• 1:51
  What was the big theme that you took away from that?
• 1:55
  Yeah, well the big, let's remember, this happens every six months.
• 1:58
  So there's a spring meeting in April and there's the fall meeting or
• 2:01
  the big annual meetings in October.
• 2:04
  So our main takeaway was a sense of relief that the economic impact of
• 2:11
  the tariffs, was smaller, at least so far than we had previously expected.
• 2:16
  Let's remember back in April that was.
• 2:18
  Right after the so-called Liberation Day tariffs had been announced.
• 2:22
  There was a huge amount of policy uncertainty coming out of the us.
• 2:27
  There were tariff rates we hadn't seen in, you know, since the depression or
• 2:31
  even, the late 19th century economists were marking down their forecasts.
• 2:36
  We were less extreme than others.
• 2:38
  We didn't have a recession, but certainly.
• 2:40
  We were seeing lower growth, lower spending, lower confidence.
• 2:43
  And as it turned out, um, economists have been, economies
• 2:47
  have been pretty resilient.
• 2:49
  Consumers are still spending the impact of the tariffs, which is
• 2:53
  still feeding through, wasn't quite as bad, as we thought.
• 2:57
  But I think the big takeaway for us was the, the sense of relief
• 3:01
  that, you know, the system held better than most of us thought.
• 3:05
  What does that relief actually look like in numbers?
• 3:07
  You know, where are you percentage wise, wise on growth this year?
• 3:11
  Yeah.
• 3:11
  I'll use, I'll use the US an example.
• 3:13
  As an example.
• 3:14
  The US is A, is a 2% economy.
• 3:16
  That's the sustainable growth rate.
• 3:18
  We came in, let's remember, we came into this year.
• 3:21
  A little bit hot.
• 3:23
  Growth was 2.9 in or 2023 and 2.8 last year, so we thought
• 3:29
  we'd be slowing to two.
• 3:30
  The first quarter, GDP actually tanked in the US but that's because we had
• 3:35
  a lot of front running for imports.
• 3:37
  And imports are a negative number in GDP, we had a big bounce back
• 3:41
  in Q2, so first half of the year roughly came out at one and a half.
• 3:45
  Which is kind of the slowdown we were expecting.
• 3:49
  Anyway, it looks like the third quarter was another strong quarter, although the
• 3:53
  government has stopped producing data, so we don't have the final, word on that one.
• 3:59
  But again, it was, a little bit slower than we, than we, um, had
• 4:04
  last year, but certainly not the kind of devastation we were looking for.
• 4:08
  And then globally.
• 4:09
  Kind of think of a global growth rate.
• 4:12
  Three and a quarter to three and a half is where we've been for the last decade or
• 4:15
  so, and we're kind of around three years.
• 4:17
  So moderate slowdown, but again, certainly not the, the deep recession
• 4:22
  that some people were looking for at the start of the trade war.
• 4:25
  Where does China fit into that picture?
• 4:28
  Yeah, well, China's still, um, numerically the largest contributor to global growth.
• 4:34
  Even though the days of 7-8% growth are behind us, it's
• 4:38
  now kind of a 4 or 5% story.
• 4:40
  China alone is contributing more to global GDP than any other, countries.
• 4:46
  I guess there's a mixed story for China.
• 4:49
  I'm gonna do my, on the one hand, on the other hand thing.
• 4:52
  Now, I think the, the negative story is the.
• 4:56
  The property overhang and the structural overinvestment model that China's
• 5:01
  never really managed to, shake.
• 5:04
  It's still a, it's still a centralized model with, state banks, state
• 5:08
  enterprises, local governments, that whole nexus in, property.
• 5:12
  There's been some overbuilding and, um, pretty high youth unemployment
• 5:16
  and some weak, consumption.
• 5:18
  The good story for China is, uh.
• 5:21
  Their world beating EV industry, their world, beating battery industry,
• 5:27
  quicker, decarbonization of the economy and something that's very important.
• 5:31
  We published a paper back in August.
• 5:34
  The credit team, actually led on this.
• 5:37
  Was the reorientation of Chinese trade away from the Americans and the
• 5:41
  Europeans toward the global south.
• 5:43
  So that's not just Southeast Asia, it's the Middle East, it's Latin America.
• 5:48
  it's Africa.
• 5:49
  So, China's trade to those regions is booming.
• 5:53
  Um, that's obviously keeping China's, um, economy afloat.
• 5:58
  It's allowing those countries in the global south to, um, um, electrify
• 6:02
  and decarbonize faster because it's got a big, clean tech, component.
• 6:08
  I think the challenge there is China is so efficient at manufacturing
• 6:12
  partly because of the talent and partly because of the subsidies.
• 6:15
  They're just.
• 6:16
  Potentially gonna devastate anybody they trade with.
• 6:18
  I think Southeast Asia's in the crosshairs there.
• 6:21
  But, um, bottom line, we're continuing to see China, slow a bit, but still
• 6:26
  a big contributor to global growth.
• 6:28
  We're probably, you know, going down from five to four, four and a
• 6:31
  half the next, next couple of years.
• 6:34
  Yeah, we spoke to the team behind that report and, it's very interesting how
• 6:38
  China's really doubled down on investment in Africa, on trade with Africa.
• 6:44
  It's kind of been.
• 6:45
  Almost a response to tariffs.
• 6:47
  I think that at the same time you had the US introducing tariffs
• 6:50
  internationally to various countries.
• 6:52
  You know, you had China actually cutting tariffs to, um, trade
• 6:56
  with Africa at that time.
• 6:58
  So it's an interesting developing, story.
• 7:01
  Um, how much do you think that this sort of, I guess, soft landing for
• 7:05
  global economics and, and markets is also down to, um, markets
• 7:13
  getting more comfortable with Trump?
• 7:15
  You know, Trump, he says a lot and you know, does a lot.
• 7:20
  But also, you know, some of those words and some of that rhetoric
• 7:24
  doesn't actually turn into action.
• 7:25
  I think people have called it, you know, the TACO.
• 7:28
  Trump always chickens out.
• 7:29
  you know, are people more comfortable kind of predicting his next move now?
• 7:37
  Um, well he's, I think he's by design unpredictable, so that
• 7:40
  might be a bit of a mugs game.
• 7:42
  But I think you're right.
• 7:43
  The, I think the model, to the extent we knew the model from the Trump
• 7:47
  first Trump administration, this is, maybe a slightly more energetic
• 7:51
  model, if that's the way, to put it.
• 7:53
  But we know that the, uh.
• 7:55
  The initial announcements on things like tariffs, even though they're quite
• 7:59
  shocking to, you know, sober bureaucratic types, these are seen as negotiating,
• 8:04
  tactics and we eventually settle down, to something that's more digestible,
• 8:10
  a world without tariffs in a world without policy uncertainty coming out
• 8:13
  of the US is in my humble opinion, a better world than the one we're in now.
• 8:17
  But I think, um, markets kind of get this, you know, countries are, you know,
• 8:23
  they're risk adjusting their supply chains and financial flows, et cetera.
• 8:27
  We've seen moves out of the dollar to gold.
• 8:29
  We've seen countries, you know, pivoting their exports, um, that ranges from
• 8:34
  Canada all the way to, to Southeast Asia.
• 8:37
  So I think the, the, the world economy's getting a little bit more, comfortable.
• 8:42
  So the downside scenario is, uh.
• 8:44
  Probably off the table for the time being.
• 8:46
  I know we're gonna talk about AI in a bit, Andy, but, you know, this
• 8:50
  AI investment boom is also masking some weakness in the global economy.
• 8:55
  So, although the headline numbers that we've been discussing are pretty
• 8:58
  good, again, look at the US, the labor market is only really producing jobs
• 9:04
  in one sector, which is healthcare.
• 9:06
  The investment part of the economy is only producing, you know, new CapEx expending
• 9:10
  in one sector, which is data centers.
• 9:13
  And then the top 10% or so of consumers are driving at least half of consumption.
• 9:19
  So I think we need to look past, some of the headline numbers, which again,
• 9:24
  aren't bad, and looking at, look at the foundation of, growth these days.
• 9:27
  And it's, it's actually quite narrow.
• 9:30
  So on that subject of ai, I read your report following the, the IMF meetings
• 9:34
  and the, the, the, the, um, you've attributed quite a chunky number for
• 9:40
  AI's contribution to growth now, right?
• 9:42
  Globally.
• 9:45
  Yeah, well, it's mainly a US story so far.
• 9:47
  Well, it's also a China story, but we don't have the data, from China.
• 9:50
  So we have a paper coming up, as you know, for the look forward
• 9:54
  journal on, the macro effects of AI.
• 9:57
  but we did do a little summary for the recap of Washington Week.
• 10:02
  There's a bunch of, I guess factors or components to the AI story?
• 10:06
  It's physically building the data centers, which is showing up as business,
• 10:10
  construction and the national accounts, but also you've got the equipment,
• 10:14
  which is the racks and the, you know, the servers and everything else,
• 10:17
  which is the, which is the hardware.
• 10:19
  And then you've got the software running, the large language models.
• 10:22
  You've got the energy components.
• 10:24
  We don't have a, we don't have an agreed all in measure on the, um, contribution
• 10:29
  of AI and, data center related spending to growth, but most people are putting
• 10:34
  this between one half and a full percentage point contribution to growth.
• 10:39
  So think about that for the US right?
• 10:41
  The US is a very sophisticated, broad base, $30 trillion economy, and we're
• 10:46
  basically saying that if you flatline everything except data centers.
• 10:51
  You're still gonna get GDP growth of close to 1%.
• 10:54
  So that's a bit mind-boggling.
• 10:56
  The way I try to think about it is maybe, um, maybe, recall the building of the US
• 11:02
  interstate highway system in the 1950s.
• 11:04
  This is the digital version of that being done by a handful of hyperscalers, but
• 11:09
  it's really moving the needle of the CapEx story is running, I think, ahead of
• 11:13
  where most, um, most, analysts put it.
• 11:16
  In recent years, and it's gonna last for a few years, and then the rest of the world.
• 11:21
  Um, my colleague, Silvan Voer in, um, in Frankfurt, who's our Chief EMEA economist,
• 11:26
  he's been noting that the, um, you know, the exports of tech related goods
• 11:31
  from Europe is, adding to growth there.
• 11:33
  They're not building the data centers, but they're supplying some of the,
• 11:36
  some of the inputs, into data centers.
• 11:39
  So it's not just a US story, we're getting kind of, you know, ancillary
• 11:43
  benefits even in places like, europe.
• 11:45
  But, definitely a tailwind maybe for the next couple of years.
• 11:49
  Although it's a tailwind, there's also some challenges.
• 11:52
  I guess this AI boom also brings with it inflation in terms of higher energy.
• 11:57
  Is that a factor?
• 12:00
  Um, well, we've been, we've been, supposedly in a world of a savings
• 12:04
  glut for the last couple of decades.
• 12:06
  The other way to say that is we've been in investment shortfall.
• 12:09
  So this is pushing investment up.
• 12:11
  It's pushing, at least, sort of structurally, real estate's higher
• 12:15
  because, or sorry, real interest rates higher because of, of, investment demand.
• 12:20
  Yes, it's pushing up energy prices.
• 12:22
  There's some distributional issues there.
• 12:24
  So those are all happening in the short term.
• 12:27
  What we're actually starting to focus on is what happens after all of these
• 12:32
  things are built out, built out?
• 12:33
  Are they gonna generate the, the profits and the earnings that are
• 12:37
  into some of the equity prices?
• 12:38
  Right?
• 12:39
  The, the PE ratios for some of these hyperscalers are quite high.
• 12:43
  That's the financial story.
• 12:45
  Who's ultimately holding the risk if that goes, bad.
• 12:48
  And then on the macro story is AI and, data centers and everything related.
• 12:53
  Is that going to deliver the productivity gains?
• 12:56
  And maybe we get a windfall of, you know, economists are thinking half
• 13:00
  a decade of, above trend growth.
• 13:03
  Estimates are pretty, pretty broad, but, we might be getting a
• 13:07
  growth windfall, out of AI as well.
• 13:09
  And how do we spend that?
• 13:11
  So this is the very beginning of the story, the kind of the
• 13:14
  CapEx and the build out phase.
• 13:15
  And then we've got the, you know, the financial payback phase and
• 13:18
  then the, macro productivity phase.
• 13:20
  So I think we're gonna be talking about this as a. Needle moving, needle moving
• 13:25
  part of the macro story for years to come.
• 13:28
  Were there any policy makers at the meetings that were expressing some
• 13:33
  reservations or concerns about ultimately what it could mean for employment?
• 13:37
  Because you know that if you're a politician, that's the thing
• 13:40
  that really moves the dial for you in a, in a bad way, right?
• 13:44
  Yeah, that was, that was a subject of some of the panels and, um, I think we're
• 13:50
  already seeing some of this to be frank.
• 13:52
  Some of the, you know, some of the larger firms are announcing, layoffs or
• 13:56
  slower hirings due to the effects of, AI.
• 14:00
  I think we know Andy, that on impact we're probably gonna have a negative impact.
• 14:05
  On the, a negative effect on the labor market, but as we go forward,
• 14:09
  we're gonna find new products and new applications for AI.
• 14:12
  So the good story, and we're not there yet, but the good story is
• 14:15
  yes, we take a hit to employment, at, you know, a year zero, and then as.
• 14:21
  As we build out and look at the capabilities of AI and the new,
• 14:25
  the new possibilities and the labor force can hopefully adjust,
• 14:28
  adjust, we get a better story.
• 14:30
  You know, electricity, sometimes people, compare AI to electricity
• 14:34
  and on impact, electricity, put the candle lighters and other folks out of
• 14:37
  business as we electrified the economy.
• 14:39
  But then we discovered we could use this stuff for, you know, assembly lines and
• 14:43
  things like that, and the whole economy.
• 14:45
  Restructured.
• 14:46
  So this is a huge thing, and it's gonna take years, but, employment impact
• 14:51
  was, front and center for, a lot of people, including here in the us.
• 14:56
  We're already starting to see some impacts on the, um, on the labor market.
• 15:00
  The, the, the ancient, um, ever constant tale of markets.
• 15:05
  There's winners and, and losers.
• 15:07
  Um, de-dollarization, that was another subject, um, that you flagged.
• 15:13
  Um, getting a lot of attention at the moment, especially
• 15:16
  with gold where it went.
• 15:18
  Recently, we were above $4,000 a Troy ounce.
• 15:20
  It's come off a little bit, but you've had, you know, this kind of.
• 15:26
  You know, percolating chatter around de-dollarization, um, you know, used maybe
• 15:32
  as a, as an excuse or a justification for, for capital going into alternative
• 15:36
  assets, gold, maybe side, um, crypto.
• 15:41
  How serious should we take it?
• 15:44
  Yeah.
• 15:44
  Well, I mean the, I think the starting point there is the, you
• 15:47
  know, the global economy has been, um, has been, become more broad based
• 15:53
  over the last couple of decades.
• 15:54
  We've now got US, Europe, and China, roughly 20% of global GDP, but the
• 16:00
  dollar still reigns supreme, right?
• 16:03
  It's almost 60% of assets on the balance sheets of central banks.
• 16:07
  It's even higher for that.
• 16:08
  For a lot of international, transaction and the, you know, the US administration
• 16:13
  is, rethinking the benefits of globalization and these, institutions
• 16:18
  that, the US helped to build after the end of the second World War.
• 16:22
  You know, IMF World Bank and what eventually became the WTO, the US
• 16:26
  seems to be pulling back from some of its, commitments there, but
• 16:30
  yet we're still in a dollar world.
• 16:32
  So this issue comes up a lot.
• 16:34
  What's gonna happen to the, dollar?
• 16:36
  We've got this apparent mismatch between the financial world, which is very
• 16:40
  dollarized and the, let's call it the real economy world, which is much more diverse.
• 16:45
  The bottom line is there's no substitute for the US dollar
• 16:47
  and the global economy, right?
• 16:49
  it's not just the dollar, it's the treasury market.
• 16:52
  It's the deepest, most liquid, most sophisticated
• 16:55
  financial market in the world.
• 16:57
  And if you wanna hold.
• 16:58
  Foreign assets.
• 16:59
  If you're outside the US you probably want to do that, in US dollars, yes,
• 17:04
  we've seen a gradual movement away from dollars, but as you said, it's
• 17:09
  toward gold and not other currencies.
• 17:11
  And, um, the Euro market just doesn't have the depth and breadth and sophistication
• 17:16
  of the US and china is an economic powerhouse, but still kind of a financial,
• 17:21
  underdeveloped economy, very bank-centric and very kind of plain vanilla.
• 17:25
  So, you know, for this foreseeable future, we are in a dollar world, even though
• 17:29
  we've got all this geopolitics, happening and the US at least this administration
• 17:35
  kind of trying to pull back a bit from some of the, you know, historical things
• 17:39
  that the US did as the benevolent hegemon after the, after the second World War,
• 17:44
  um, Glen Stevens, um, after.
• 17:46
  Former mutual friend at the RBA in Australia, I think once described it
• 17:50
  to me that all of the co currencies are bobbing, bobbing, like corks, bobbing
• 17:54
  on a, a, a dollar, a dollar ocean.
• 17:56
  Um, which I think is,
• 17:58
  I like that metaphor by the way.
• 17:59
  That's, um, um, so you know.
• 18:04
  Geopolitics hasn't really had the, the impact that we all feared it
• 18:08
  would at the beginning of the year.
• 18:09
  And I guess where I'm going with this are people talking about a potential
• 18:13
  peace dividend on the upside here.
• 18:15
  So we had Gaza, you know, we've now got peace there.
• 18:18
  People didn't see that things are starting to maybe cool down in the Middle East.
• 18:23
  Um, but the next big.
• 18:26
  Geopolitical change in the mood could be around Russia and Ukraine.
• 18:31
  Can Trump broke a, a peace deal there now that potentially if it could be
• 18:35
  done, you know, that would move the dial for, for forecasts for GDP growth
• 18:41
  by the end of the year, potentially?
• 18:42
  No?
• 18:44
  Yeah, well, well if we dial back a few years, um, those events
• 18:49
  didn't move the macro needle as much as we originally thought.
• 18:53
  Obviously, if you're in Ukraine, you've got a huge, impact.
• 18:57
  But, Europe weathered that, um, energy supply shock pretty well,
• 19:02
  and in the Middle East, growth is holding up in most places that are.
• 19:05
  Are not directly affected by the, hostilities there.
• 19:09
  So maybe we get a bit of a boost on the, the market sentiment of those
• 19:14
  two conflicts, are resolved, which obviously would be a great thing.
• 19:18
  And, I think, you know, we might, I could.
• 19:21
  I can't say for sure.
• 19:22
  We might bump the forecast up a bit in those regions.
• 19:24
  I'm not sure it would move the dial very much globally, but, you know, the
• 19:29
  beginning of your question, Andy, was, you know, this, you know, deglobalization
• 19:34
  hasn't moved the needle yet very much.
• 19:36
  And I think, um, a lot of people I wouldn't.
• 19:39
  Sort of jump into this view that it's gonna cause a recession.
• 19:43
  I was, I would look at the longer term, right?
• 19:45
  So, um, are we getting an, the same amount of investment?
• 19:49
  Are we getting the same amount of innovation?
• 19:51
  Is labor going to where it's gonna be most productive?
• 19:54
  The US is thinking of, you know, putting a high fee on H1b visas.
• 20:00
  Are we losing some of the dynamism because of the geopolitics?
• 20:04
  So this might be a story where.
• 20:06
  Not over the next one or two years, but over the next one or two
• 20:09
  decades, we just kind of take global growth down a couple of notches.
• 20:14
  We all know globalization was about efficiency and free flow of capital and
• 20:18
  free movement of labor and, production moving to where it was, most efficient.
• 20:23
  But.
• 20:24
  Now that we've got this geopolitical overhang that's gonna be,
• 20:27
  that's gonna be dialed back.
• 20:29
  And I think populism is probably with us for the foreseeable future.
• 20:32
  So for me, that's just a less dynamic, slightly more expensive
• 20:36
  and a slower growing world.
• 20:38
  So again, um, I wouldn't sort of look at it as a short term, you know,
• 20:43
  short, short term cyclical risk of a recession, let's say maybe a, a
• 20:47
  longer term decline in trend growth.
• 20:49
  So tariffs aren't going away.
• 20:52
  Um, no de deglobalization.
• 20:55
  It isn't necessarily going away, but it, it hasn't been as bad as anyone thought.
• 21:01
  Um, the dollar's not going away.
• 21:03
  Um, um, AI centers are definitely here to stay and we're likely to get more of them.
• 21:09
  Um, and actually we're, we're we, you know, 2025, we could all end
• 21:15
  up finishing the year smiling.
• 21:16
  Ultimately, it's not been as bad as people feared.
• 21:20
  Yeah, I think that's right.
• 21:21
  And I think you listed all the things that, are, um, helping.
• 21:26
  And I would add to that maybe low, lower global global oil prices.
• 21:30
  Um, those are obviously not great for the producers, but for consumers.
• 21:34
  Particularly in emerging markets where you've got a big chunk
• 21:37
  of their spending on energy.
• 21:39
  That's another tailwind to growth.
• 21:40
  And then financial conditions, which we follow quite closely
• 21:44
  in the ratings division.
• 21:45
  Um, you know, medium term, you know, 5, 7, 10 year US
• 21:50
  treasury yields are pretty low.
• 21:51
  They're at or below 4%.
• 21:54
  The spreads on top of those are pretty tight.
• 21:57
  People have got nice, equity portfolios because of the
• 22:00
  rise in the various indices.
• 22:02
  And, housing prices are still pretty elevated, so the financial conditions
• 22:07
  as well, are pretty accommodative.
• 22:09
  So we've got some tailwinds to growth with AI and, oil prices and, uh.
• 22:14
  Financial conditions.
• 22:15
  So we're gonna end the year probably with some decent momentum.
• 22:18
  And again, I would focus on more on the medium term, but the short
• 22:21
  term, you know, we've, we've revised our forecast up, for the past two
• 22:26
  quarters and, 2026, looks a bit better than we thought earlier in the year.
• 22:31
  So yeah, short term, looks like the damage hasn't been as, um.
• 22:35
  As bad as fear.
• 22:36
  Well, as a professional pessimist, you've made me feel quite good about things.
• 22:39
  So, um, Paul, that's mission accomplished.
• 22:43
  Um, thank you very much for joining us.
• 22:45
  Well, maybe end by quoting Madeline Albright, our former Secretary of State.
• 22:50
  She said, I'm not a pessimist, I'm an optimist who worries a lot, so that.
• 22:53
  It is absolutely, yeah.
• 22:54
  The, the way to be certainly in financial markets.
• 22:57
  Um, Paul Greenwald, chief Economist at S&P Global, thank you so much
• 23:01
  for joining us, taking us through those meetings that you attended.
• 23:04
  Um, this month.
• 23:06
  Um, we look forward to having you again on the podcast, um, maybe
• 23:10
  into the beginning of next year now.
• 23:12
  And to our listeners, you can download this episode and future
• 23:16
  episodes on, Spotify Apple Podcast store and our website spglobal.com.
• 23:22
  Thank you very much.