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Brewers/Braves MLB Best Bets Monday 8/4/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: that have not had a good season. Man with wookends
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: slump that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: into pink. Actually, I'm going to burn my browins hat Man,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the bruins
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: arch hape? Is that what it is? I don't even
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: know it's It's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what day is anymore. I don't even
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: know what data is anymore. Man, back with you after
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: the worst day that I could possibly have, Back with
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: you as I always am until I die, at least
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: oh two. Yesterday and yesterday it did not go well
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: for me. Own five the worst month that I've ever
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: had in my eighteen years. Doing this. I don't know
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: what to even tell you about this anymore. To the slumprase,
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: the slump discontinuous, The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: point other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: it's towed back with you better off dead. Monday, August fourth,
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: start a new week. Hopefully everybody had a good weekend.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: I was at least celebrating birthdays and celebrating a three
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: to one run until yesterday when I went own two
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: on the show. I apologize for that, at least one
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: of my losses. I wound up being a Red Sox win,
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: so at least there was that as a Red Sox fan.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: But I give out the Astros on the show. That
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: was due boomed basically basically by one in one inning
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: that Houston couldn't get out of. I believe the bottom
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: of the third, fourth, whatever it was, Houston took a
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: one to nothing lead and then they just imploded. They
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: had a defensive implosion. I think all of the Red
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Sox runs might have been scored in that one inning,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: and then the score just stayed the same the rest
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: of the game. It was ridiculous, but multiple runs were
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: unearned just fielding mistakes by Houston just ridiculous. But it
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: was a loser, man, And then Colorado was also a loser.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: I apologized for that as well. First five innings that game.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, the score was a little bit misleading. The
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: hits I think were even on both sides. I think
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh scored nine runs on nine hits over the course
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: of the entire game, which not sothing. You usually see
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: very efficient scoring from the worst offense in all of baseball.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: I think Colorado had the same number of hits but
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: put up fewer runs. Yeah, that one didn't work out either.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: So my apologies will move on to today. And I
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: only have one play today, man, and it's a play.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: I don't even know if I love the one play
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: I'm giving out today. Man, I just don't like the
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: board today. It's Monday. It's somewhat of a shorter card
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: and usually I will point out, as I always do
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: on Monday, you do want to look to potentially go
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: against the teams that played in the Sunday night game,
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: because it's a big game. Sometimes those teams are traveling
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: a lot of times they will be and play the
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: late night games, so you have potentially travel plus a
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: quick turnaround time. So Detroit and Philadelphia potential fade targets
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: today if you want to look at all that. I
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: think Detroit is actually off today, so only Philadelphia. Oh no,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: Detroit is playing. What am I saying? That's right? I
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: forgot about that because we don't even know who their
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: picture the picture that's opposing them is gonna be today anyway. Yeah,
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: let's get into it. I guess we got Houston at
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Miami first game. All the games are in the evening today.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: Miami coming off a sweep of the New York Inkees,
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: which I'm laughing about that. Man, I'm not not gonna
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: complain about that one bit. Miami five wins in a row.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm laughing because it's just it is laughable, dude,
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: because Miami is just not this good. I don't know
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: how they pulled off this sweep. They could be in
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: a bit of a letdown spot here staying at home
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: off of that big series win, although Houston is one
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: of the top teams in baseball as well, record wise,
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: so Miami still may pay attention here and they still
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: do have momentum. Houston might be in a bounce back spot,
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: but they are traveling down the East coast from Boston
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: to Miami off of a big series against Boston where
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: things got heated. So I see arguments that it could
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: be a bounce back spot for Uston, but I also
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: see arguments that it could be kind of a hangover
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: a type of spot for Houston. Houston does have the
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: better bullpen. I believe both bullpens saw some kind of
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: similar usage yesterday. Three relievers from Miami yesterday Houston, with
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: one of the better bullpens in all of baseball, only
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: used two. So we're gonna give Houston the bullpen edge. Andrew,
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: what's up man? Thanks for hanging out Houston. I do
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: not believe we will give the starting pitching edge, though,
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: with George Costanza on the mound here. Jason Alexander Jason
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: might be getting upset. His numbers are not good this
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: year at all. Seven point three six ERA, one point
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: eight three WHIP. I mean, I think he's just kind
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: of a guy that's in the rotation right now because
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: Houston has injuries. It's like they don't even have any
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: other option. I don't know, man, He's been bad on
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: the road eight point h three road ERA not good
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: since Houston got him. He's made four starts, the last
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: three of them. He only made it past five innings once,
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: and in that start against the Ace, he still gave
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: up eleven hits and five or in runs. He has
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: an eleven to six strikeout walk ratio over the course
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: of the last three starts over the past month four
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: point six to one ERA, so at least that's better
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: than his season ERA, but it's still not good. He
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: did have to face the Dodgers in there, which is
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: not an easy tasking. Actually didn't allow any runs in
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: that start, but it was a shortened start. Not expecting
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: a whole lot out of George Costanza here man going
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: up against who did I say in Miami? I mean
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: they are not a very good offense though, so he
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: at least doesn't have the most difficult task in this game.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: I don't know that he's gonna go deep into this
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: game either though, but at the very least he does
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: have the advantage of not having been seen before by
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Miami's offense. So a lot of times in an offense
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: has not seen a pitcher before, they can struggle a
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: little bit to figure that picture out, although Jason Alexander's
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: been in the league for a while, so it's not
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: like he's some young, super talented pitcher or anything like that.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Sandy all Contra pitching for the Marlins, and he did
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: not get traded at the trade deadline. Definitely some talks
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: about him being moved. He really just has not returned
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: to form though, unfortunately, since earlier in his career when
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: he is a really really good pitcher, he dealt with injuries,
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: had I believe multiple Tommy John surgeries, and he's just
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: never been good since then. This season, not good six
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: point three six ERA, one point four to two whip.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: He's been better at home though, four point eight one
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: ERA at home, so the splits home road or in
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: favor of al Contre here. This past month he's been
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: a little bit better than he was earlier in the season,
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: at least four point six sixty RA eighteen to eight
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio. Miami won his last three starts, and
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: he actually had two shutout appearances in his most recent
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: two starts against San Diego and Saint Louis, so debatably,
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: he is starting to pitch a little bit better as
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: of later, though, his strikeout rate is still pretty low,
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: so it's not like he's back to where he was
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: earlier in his career, where he was able to really
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: fool hitters. Thank you, Jay Man, what's up man? I'm
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: glad you appreciate it. Man. I mean, the plays I
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: gave out yesterday were certainly not good. Al Contra up
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: against Houston, right Houston does have a good offense still.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: I mean, even though they're dealing with injuries right now,
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: they did get Correa back over there, so their offense
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: is at least helped out by that. Although they weren't
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: particularly good in that Red Sox series, they have mediocre
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: numbers against Alcontra and thirty at bats to sixty seven
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: batting average, seven thirteen ops. So I would say Alecondra
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: does have the upper hand in the pitching matchup. I
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: would say, but I believe that if you're looking at
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: this as far as a moneyline perspective, it looks like
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: the actually it looks like the cash is coming in
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: on Houston, my mistake. So it looks like although actually
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: they're conflicting indicators on this because the market the money
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: line opened to Houston minus one fifteen. But now we
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: see Miami is the favorite at minus one twenty to
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: minus one thirty everywhere all the book maker. Like I said,
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: out of these books that are listed here, they're the
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: one that caters to the sharps the most, and they're
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: down at minus one twenty three. So a little bit
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: of an indicator there. It looks like maybe it was
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: a false early move, or maybe it was a pitching
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: change the cause that move. Actually, that's probably more likely
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: that maybe Houston was gonna have somebody else pitch and
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: then they decided, oh shit, we have to pitch Alexander again,
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: and that's why the line moved. That would make more sense.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: And now fifty eight percent of tickets on Miami but
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: sixty six percent of the cash coming in on Houston
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: back in Houston. There, I don't really agree with the
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Houston side, though. If it's close going into the bullpens,
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: then it would start to favor Houston a little bit.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: But other than that, I'm not going to really agree
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: with that. It does look like the total one up
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: from eight to eight and a half as well, with
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: eighty two percent of the cash on the under but
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: fifty two percent of the cash in the over but
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: actually Network is actually saying the money is coming in
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: on the under the books that they're tracking. So it's
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: really just totally conflicting information on this game. So this
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: is just a difficult game to handicap. Yeah, everything's a grind, man,
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: It's baseball typically is a good sport for me. It's
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: over the course, Like I've been doing this for eighteen
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: years and I just stopped actually putting money on it,
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: but I was doing it more like as a hobby
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: and not putting like a ton of money at risk,
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: like three hundred a game basically. But uh, you know,
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: with losing my job recently, whatever, I'm just I'm staying
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: away from that and not actually doing it just because
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: I don't have enough money like liquid right now and whatever,
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: and feels a little bit risky in this situa any
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: more stability right now. But over the last eighteen years,
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: NBA has one of my best sport in Major League
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: Baseball is in my second best. It's just it hasn't
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: been a great baseball season for me though. But yeah,
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: I don't even know if I would have a particular
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: lean on that use of Miami game because everything just
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: seems to be in conflict as far as all the signals.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: So it's just like, what the fuck is going on there?
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: But I think generally Miami with the starting pitching edge,
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: but as the game gets later into the game and
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: that Houston has the edge with the bullpens later in
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: the game. Minnesota at Detroit. Like I said, Detroit, they're
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: in a pretty bad spot, man. So it is a
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: spot where you generally want to start the handicap by
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: looking to potentially fade Detroit as they're coming up a
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: big weekend series over Philadelphia. They were in Philadelphia. Now
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: they're returning home on the short turnaround time after playing
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: at night the big ESPN game. So that's the situation
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: that Detroit is in there. It's not a huge road
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: trip return, but it is still the Sunday night return.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: Minnesota coming into Detroit off of playing in Cleveland, so
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: their travel is actually less and they played earlier in
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: the day, so it is a more positive travel spot
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: for Minnesota. But Detroit is still playing for something whereas
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: Minnesota really isn't. Although Minnesota might still show up here
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: just because you know, I mean, it's a division rivalry. Detroit,
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: we know Detroit's highly likely to make the playoffs and whatever,
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: so Minnesota probably out of it at this point. Probably
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: they may at least show up just to try to
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: take Detroit down a peg. Basically, we don't know who
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: Minnesota starter is gonna be. The bullpen scenario is definitely
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: in favor of Detroit. Minnesota use five relief pitchers yesterday.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: They're not a good bullpen, and they traded away their
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: cloths are right before the trade deadlight. Detroit only used
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: one relief pitcher and it was Holt and one of
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: their long relief men. So Detroit's bullpend definitely has the
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: upper hand here. So that starts to make it difficult
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: to actually fade Detroit in this game because they have
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: the kind of a motivational edge a little bit and
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: a bullpen edge. Casey Mize is not their best pitcher,
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: though I told you that. I know his stats were
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: good earlier in the season, but I told you that
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: he was a big time regression candidate based on what
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: he's done throughout his career. He's just not that good
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: of a pitcher and the regression is happening. Three point
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: four to three era is still good, but one point
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: three to three whip. His whip is going up. It's
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: too high. He is a little bit better at home
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: with a three point three to two ERA, but you
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: can see this past month he has not been good.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: Six point three two ERA, fifteen to seven strike at
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. Last three starts, failed to make it past
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: four innings. You could argue that he was distracted by
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: making the All Star Game. He pitched in the All
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: Star Game. Yeah, that is a distraction, But I think
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: it's more that Mies just really isn't that good. And
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: he had a chance to bounce back against Arizona, although
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: it was before I believe they made out all those
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: trades that they made. But he did not do well
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: in that start against Arizona at all. One in two
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: thirds innings is what he lasted. Threw a ton of
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: pitches fifty nine, three walks, three hits, allowed somehow limited
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: them to one earn run. But that was a really
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: bad start after having a terrible start against Pittsburgh the
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: previous start. A bad Pittsburgh offense tagged him for ten
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: hits in four innings, not a good sign man four
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: and runs as well, So I think Mize is definitely
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: lapsing falling out a form here, so I don't like
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: how this sets up for him. He does have good
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: numbers against the Twins, though they're not a very good
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: offense forty four at bats, one eighty two batting average
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: at five hundred oh ps. And of course this is
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: the Twins without Correa now as well, so Miz does
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: have the matchup numbers, even though he's generally a pitcher.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: I'm looking to fade in the second half of the
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: season here. Detroit is in a fase spot. We don't
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: know what Minnesota is doing with They're starting pitching though,
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Detroit as the bullpen edged, so it's like, what do
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: you do with all that information? I mean again, it's
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: like you gotta stay away from the game pretty much.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: The line's moved up a little bit. Minus one sixty
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: is the money line on Detroit there on, the total
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: up from eight to eight and a half. Like the
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: highest total is a bookmaker, and bookmaker has one of
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: the highest money lines as well, so somewhat of an
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: indicator there. I guess that money coming out of Detroit
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: in the over, but I'm definitely not gonna deal with
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: any of that. Miz is one of your fantasy pitchers tonight. Yeah,
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: I mean it might work out okay, just because the
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: Twins don't really have a very threatening offense. Yeah, he's
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: not very good. Yeah, I mean it is matchup dependent obviously,
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: so the Twins triple a lineup, it might work out okay,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: But I mean, I still don't really trust Myze. But
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: of course, the last time he faced a bad offense Pittsburgh,
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: he did not do well. Speaking of Pittsburgh, they're returning
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: home from a road trip that took them to San
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Francisco and then into elevation into Colorado. So Pittsburgh not
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: in a good spot. They're returning home from a road trip, which,
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: as I usually say, it's a distracted spot typically because
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: you have to get back to home life. You can
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: be distracted there. They may actually take their foot off
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: the gas a little bit too, because San Francisco has
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: been in a big time slide, and part that was
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: that Pittsburgh went to San Francisco and swept them. And
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: I made the same point when San Francisco just played
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: at the Mets. I said it was a road revenge
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: spot for San Francisco because they had just gotten swept
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: by the Mets in San Francisco. Well, right after that,
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: San Francisco got swept at home by Pittsburgh as well,
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: And now San Francisco gets a chance at redemption and
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: they get to face that Pittsburgh team that just swept
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: them in Pittsburgh's place. So San Francisco, I think, is
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: gonna be the more motivated team here. San Francisco is
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: still fighting, you know, for playoff positioning, trying to even
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: make the playoffs at this point. Pittsburgh is definitely out
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: of it. So there is a motivational edge here, situational
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: edge for San Francisco here for sure. San Francisco also
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: has the better bullpen. I think used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's bullpen is actually not that bad, but San Francisco's
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: is better. Pittsburgh also used three. I have some more
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: heavy bullpen usage recently as well. But if you like
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: San Francisco, you have to put your faith in Justin Verlander.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: And you know this is not this is not twenty
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: ten anymore. No Verlander, I don't know what we could
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: do about him. Man, He's not doing that well this year.
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: Four point five to three ERA one point four to
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: nine whip and yeah, he's been in the least is
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: two thousand and five. Crazy man. His numbers not good
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: this year, obviously a little bit worse on the road
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: to four point nine to three ERA. Did pitch a
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: little bit better his last couple of times out though
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: the seven strikeouts in his last outing in one walk
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: with the prior start, even though he didn't allow any
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: runs and only one hit to Atlanta, he did walk
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: five guys, so that's a little bit concerning as well.
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: Last start was against a weak Pittsburgh offense, but he
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: did hold him to one run in five innings five
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: point four ERA over the past month of twenty two
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: to nine strike ale walker ratio. So I'm not exactly
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: ready to say that Verlanders totally back and forth, but
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: he is coming off of one of his better starts
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: of the season, and that was against this same Pittsburgh team.
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: And Pittsburgh is not a very good offense. They may
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: be the very worst offense in all of baseball, but
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: they might have a slight advantage because justin Verland, who
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: did just face them, so Pittsburgh, having just seen him,
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: they might actually come out and hit a little bit better.
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: So you got to kind of take all that into
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: account and try to figure out what you want to
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: do with this game, if you want to do anything
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: Verland or against Pittsburgh. His numbers are kind of mediocre,
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: and seventy seven at bats twenty to six strike at
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: walk ratio is alright, two sixty batting average seven to
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: fifty five ops is a little bit high. I he's
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: allowed home runs to Kinder, Filefa, Piguero, and Fam, But overall,
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: I do kind of lean to San Francisco. There's just
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: because I think the situation kind of trumps everything else.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: The g Men today and you think you like the
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: Bucks tomorrow, I guess I might not disagree with that
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: because that second game back I usually tend to get
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: a better performance out of that team if they did
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: badly the first game back. And Pittsburgh they're starting Johan Oviaight,
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: who has not pitched in the Major since twenty twenty three,
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: and his career stats are not good. He pitched between
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty and twenty twenty three. He was starting, and
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: he was coming out of the bullpen kind of a
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: mix four point three to two Wei ran one point
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: four whip on his career. Those are not good numbers, man,
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: and only a one point eight strikeout to walk ratio,
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: so he's not a really big strike up pitcher. And
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: he does walk too many guys as well. So there's
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: not a whole lot to like about OVI Eightoh here,
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: I don't even know if he's faced San Francisco before.
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: Let me see, I did look earlier, but I always
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: have to refresh my memory because I go through this
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: really fast to figure out, like what I want to
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: actually play. His numbers are actually decent in his career
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: against San Francisco twenty nine at bats to forty one
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: batting average, six seventy ops. But OVI EIGHTO. I mean
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: throughout his career he hasn't been a good pitcher. And
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: how is he gonna respond to not having pitched for
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: two years? Basically, now he's pitching again, he might be
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: on a pitch count as well, so you might get
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's bullpen in the game earlier. So I think this
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: is probably you play San Francisco or you passed a game.
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: I just think it's difficult to handicap everything about this game. Man.
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: We do see fifty seven percent of tickets on San Francisco.
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: The public on San fran and eighty two percent of
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: the money the cash on Pittsburgh. So it looks like
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: the money is coming in on Pittsburgh. And the lie
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: dropped from an opener of minus one thirty five on
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: San Francisco all the way down to minus one twenty
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: one twenty four at Bookmaker. So the money came in
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: on Pittsburgh. But maybe the feeling is, you know, amongst
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: the professional better is basically just well, San Francisco hasn't
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: playing but like ass recently, and some of it might
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: be about the price. Really, like you know, you're gonna
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: have to pay a tax if Verlanders on the mound,
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: you still have to pay that tax just because of
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: the name Verlander, even though he's not that good anymore.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: So I think San Francisco it may be accurate that
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: they shouldn't be favored by this much on the road.
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: I would be more you know, I would be more
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: likely to be considering playing Srancisco in this game if
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: they were at a more reasonable price than this, But
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: I would still probably lead to San Francisco getting this game.
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: Baltimore at Philadelphia. Philadelphia played in the Sunday night game
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: as well. They're at least not traveling. They're staying at home.
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: But they won that series and they got the big
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: win last night in a shutout, so it could be
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a letdown spot for them. Baltimore
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: has nothing really left to play for though. They're coming
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: in off a series against the Cubs, so they're playing
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: a couple of difficult series in a row. They actually
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: played Toronto before that too, then the Cubs, so a
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: few big series for Baltimore in a row. Baltimore at
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: this point, I would say Philadelphia has the bullpen edge
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: over Baltimore. Baltimore only used two relief pitchers yesterday. I
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: believe Philadelphia only used one. Yeah, because Christopher Sanchez had
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: a really ace performance yesterday. So Philadelphia has the better
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: bullpen I think at this point as well, and bullpen
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: rest edge, So bullpen edge goes to Philadelphia. Philadelphia has
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: the better bats well, which by the way, San Francisco
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: actually probably has an offensive edge over Pittsburgh as well,
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: but San Francisco does not have a good offense, and
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: Detroit as the offensive vege of Minnesota and Houston as
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: the offensive vegem from Miami. I don't know if I
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: specified all that cade Povich is gonna be pitching for Baltimore.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: He's returning from the DL. He's still a young guy
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: who does have some room for improvement, but he hasn't
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: been good this year. Five point one five ERA, one
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: point five whip. Maybe he should just start his own
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: talk show or something to do paternity tests. He has
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: been better on the road three point one r on
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: the road, so he has the home road split going
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: for him. Going into his injury, he was at least
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: pitching with some command. Fifteen to three strike a walk
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: RAIGHTTIO wasn't too bad. Four point six to one e
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: RRA wasn't that good, mostly because he got tagged for
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: five runs by Detroit. But then he did get injured,
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: and I think he probably exited the game against Anaheim
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: early with an injury. Now he is coming back, he
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: hasn't been out for that long. He's been out for
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: a little bit over a month, so maybe he will
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: be able to bounce back. Although sometimes it's a little
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: bit iffy with these young pitchers that I used to
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: having time off and then they have to come back
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: from an injury. He is gonna be facing a pretty
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: difficult line up here in Philadelphia, who are really good
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: at home. But maybe Povic does have some advantage here
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: because Philadelphia has never faced him before, so at least
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: maybe he does have a slight edge there and that
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: they are unfamiliar with them, won't know what he's throwing
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: at them. Going up against Jesus Luzardo, who really has
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: kind of fallen off this year, man, it seems like
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: what I've heard is that maybe he's been tipping his
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: pitches somehow, like hitters have been able to figure out,
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: like anticipate what his pitchers are gonna be, Like something
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: in his emotion is like different between his pitches, so
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: hitters can figure out what pitch he's throwing. His numbers
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: have gotten way worse though, after a hot start to
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: the year four point three one ERA one point three
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: to seven whip. He's doing worse at home as well,
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: with a five point three to one home the IRA
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: not good. He is coming off a really good outing
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: against the White Sox seven innings shutout too. It's allowed
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: four strikeouts in one walk, But overall this past month
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: he's been pretty bad five point two six ERA twenty
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: nine to twelve strike out walk ratio. So I don't know,
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: if one good starting, it's a pretty weak White Sox lineup,
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: although the White Socks have been hitting better recently. But
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: I still don't know if that start is telling us
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: that loz Arno is actually coming back into form, or
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: if we should put more weight in the starts before
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: that that were pretty bad because he ended up one
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: other good starting against San Francisco in there, then he
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: went right back to being awful the next two starts
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: up against who are we facing here? I already forget
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: up against Baltimore, though Baltimore does not have a good offense,
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: so loz Arno may very well do well in this game.
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: And Baltimore only has three hitters who have even faced
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: him before, so he has kind of an unfamiliarity edge
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: here as well. They're only two for ten off in lifetime,
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: although they have three walks compared to two strikeouts two
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: hundred average. Obviously you can do the math at six
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: eighty five ops. So to me, I mean, Lozardo probably
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: is the more trust worthy pitcher over Povich, just because
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: he's shown more glimpses of being good. But I don't
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: know if I'm ready to trust either of them, man.
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, I could see arguments for an over in
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: this game, and the total has gone up from eight
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: eight and a half to nine. I think both bullpens
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: are fairly untrustworthy here, and it's difficult to trust either
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: starter or so I see the argument for that. Book
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: Maker actually as the highest total nine more heavily juiced
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: to the over, so that might be the better way
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: to look at this game. Philadelphia is public and they're
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: just very very heavy a favorite somewhere between minus one
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: ninety and two hundred basely or minus one eighty and
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: two hundred basically at all the books. We'll see what
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: happens in that game. But I would not really want
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: to touch the side. I mean, if anything, I would
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: still even maybe be looking to fade Philadelphia on the
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: run line or something, just because of the situation. But
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: I think that they debatably have the edge of the
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup, and they do have a better bullpen
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: and way better offense, so I'll stay away from that
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: as well. Cleveland is at the Mets. The Mets are
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: staying at home after losing to San Francisco, which is
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: not great. So San Francisco is actually playing better over
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: the last series at the very least they beat the
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: Mets beat them up twelve to four. After the Mets
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: won twelve to six in the prior game, San Francisco
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: returned the favor. Mets have actually not played well recently.
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: They've lost five of their last six games. But they're
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: staying at home and they're stepping basically down in class
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: to bass Cleveland team that isn't very good at this point,
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: and know they're not going anywhere. The Mets are obviously
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: playing for playoff positioning here. Cleveland coming in from home,
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: so they're starting a road trip off a loss. So
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: sometimes starting a road trip you are focused. But they
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: did lose a four game win streak prior to losing
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: to Minnesota, so Cleveland might be a little bit hung over.
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: When you lose a win streak, sometimes it actually hangs
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: you over into the next start. I'll probably give the
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: Mets the bullpen edge here. Let me see, where are
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: these bullpens at Cleveland's at thirteenth in Whip. Actually, Cleveland's
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: might actually be better. Surprisingly, Mets are actually down at
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: nineteenth and Whipple. The isn't that much worse? No, Yeah,
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: actually I don't know. Cleveland's ra is better too, Fine,
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: all right, I guess we'll give Cleveland a bullpen edge there,
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: But as far as the usage is concerned, the Mets
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: kind of only used like two of their longer ish
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: relief men yesterday, so the better Mets relievers are still available.
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: Because it was a blowout game yesterday, Cleveland used two
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: of their relievers as well, but they kind of used
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: some of their better Ish relievers. I guess you still
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: give the bullpen edge to Cleveland slightly, though. I guess
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: Slay Chacone pitching for Cleveland here, he's been pretty decent
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: three point seven to seven ERA, one point two to
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: two WHIP. He's been better on the road as well,
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: two point five to seven ERA on the road, pitching
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: pretty effectively over the past month, three point nine to
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: three ERA, twenty one to eight strike out walk ratio.
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: He doesn't have a high strikeout rate, but he's not
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: putting a lot of guys on base. He allowed three
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: or fewer earned runs at every start except for one
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: where he went almost the entire distance against the A's
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: and they just let him stay in there. They let
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: him cook. So I'm not really gonna black him too
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: much for giving up six runs when he went eight
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: and a third innings. That's not that terrible at least,
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: But overall he's been fairly good for a while now.
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: He actually hasn't a lot more than three and runs
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: going all the way back to late May in any
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: start up against who we got here, the Mets. The Mets.
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: Actually I don't know what the Yeah, the Mets probably
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: did see him though, because he was in the NL
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: when he was on Arizona. Seventeen at bats, it's not
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: a huge sample size. So the Mets do you have
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: a three fifty three average off him one thousand and
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: one seventy six oh ps and Mullins and Viento's both
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: of a home run off of him. So Chaconi did
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: struggle a little bit in that small sample size against
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: the Mets. You have, so in fantasy you're playing chacone. Uh,
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: So you're this is like a daily fantasy, right, It's
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: not a season long fantasy because you have too many
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: different pictures. It's not a season long thing unless you're
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: playing like really crazy and just making sure that you
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: play pictures every single day. Because I remember fantasy baseball
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: when you had like a season long fantasy team. You
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: basically held on to your best pitchers, so you would
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: just have day where you had not too many pitchers pitching,
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: and you'd kind of only like rotating it out like
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: shitty pictures that you didn't want, you know, to hold
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: on to for the rest of the season. I don't know,
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: but I don't know about Jaconi in this matchup though.
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: Oh it is a league or it's a ten man league. Interesting,
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: you're switching up pitchers a lot man. Yeah, I don't
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: know about Jaconi in this matchup though. Gets a pretty
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: decent met line up here. Sears haven't gotten to yet.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: Luzardo at least seems to have a good matchup, at
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: least against a Baltimore lineup that's not that good. Everyone
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: values pitching. Yeah, I guess that is the case. So
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: it seems like you're almost you're like streaming pitchers basic
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: almost like what like I kind of do that in
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, I stream defenses in football, but sometimes I
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: actually wind up streaming quarterbacks in football because I hope
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: value quarterbacks that high and I have. I've been known
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: to stream kickers in fantasy football as well, although when
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: I get a kicker the tod I kind of just
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: hang on to them and that usually works out okay too.
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: Sean Mania is pitching for the Mets. He just came
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: back not too long ago from injury after not having
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: pitched for quite a while. He is pitching well. Two
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: point zero eight ERA point eighty seven whip you only
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: stream one or two, all right, So Mania is pitching
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: quite well Man this season so far. He's a two
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: ERA at home. It's pretty similar home in a way.
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: He's not a lot more than one or run in
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: any of his fourth starts so far. He's ramped up
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: his pitch count in every single outing so now he's
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: gone five innings in two straight outings. Still pitching quite well.
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: Just overall, twenty two to four strike a walk racio
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: is quite good. Yeah, he's doing well going up against
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: who do we got here? Cleveland? Not a very good
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: offense at all. Forty at bats against them. Cleveland hasn't
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: hit him particularly well two fifty batting average, six to
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: sixty three oh ps, although thirteen to nine strike a
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. Mania throughout his history has been fairly wild,
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: and though that wildness has not shown up this year
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: so far. But I prefer an eye over Chacone in
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: this game, just based on even recent like what they've
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: done recently and the matchup numbers here. But for the Mets,
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, it does seem to be a little bit
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: of a worse spot for the Mets because they are
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: coming off that big win, a big series. Excuse it
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: for San Francisco, so Cleveland, I mean may have a
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: little bit of a situational edgit, but I think you
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: got to give the hitting and the starting pitching advantage
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: to the Mets. There. The Mets are obviously going to
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: be favored in this game. Where are they at? They're
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: up from or down? Actually excuse me for minus one
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: eighty five to minus one seventy whatever, and most books,
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: eighty three percent takes ninety one percent of the cash
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: on the Mets, though it might make sense instead of
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: that to maybe even look towards an under, but the
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: total has gone up from eight to eight and a
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: half at a lot of books that the bookmaker has
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: the heaviest juice on the under eight and a half
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: at this point. Uh So, I could see both starting
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: pitchers doing pretty well in this matchup, and both bullpens
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: are actually not that awful, so potentially an under in
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: that game might make sense. Oh you stream kickers and defense,
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: all right? Yeah, quarterbacks, Like I usually i'll draft a
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: quarterback later in the draft, usually just just one in
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: I'm in a My main league is a twelve team,
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: one quarterback league, and then that quarterback, of course might
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: get injured, and then I just went up streaming quarterbacks
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: pretty much at that point. That is pretty much what
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: I'm known for doing. Kansas City at my Boston Red Sox,
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox could be in a letdown spot here. Man.
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: They're coming off a sweep of Houston. That was a
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: pretty big series for the Red Sox. Man big home series.
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: They're stepping down in class, way down offensively to face
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: is bad Kansas City offense here. As far as the bullpens,
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox didn't use much of their bullpen at all.
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: Gildo got them eight innings yesterday and then they only
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: use Murphy out of the bullpen. Nice Irish name for
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: a Red Sox player there. So the Red Sox have
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: a pretty rested bullpen here and they're staying at home.
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: Kansas City is traveling in and Kansas City used a
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: lot of relievers yesterday. They used five relief pitchers yesterday,
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: so we're gonna give the Red Sox the bullpen edge.
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: I think they actually have the better bullpen over Kansas
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: City anyway, and the rest is certainly in favor of Boston.
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: Kansas City coming up a pretty big series as well,
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: coming down from Toronto, so the travel spot isn't really
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: as good for Kansas City here. As far as the
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: starting pitching, Bailey Falter acquired by the Royals in a
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: trade with the Pirates. He was pitching pretty well for
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: the Pirates and this is gonna be his first start
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: with the Royals. Three point seven to three ERA, one
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: point one to eight whip on the season, fairly good numbers,
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: a little bit worse on the road four point one
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: to seven e RA on the road. He was pitching
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: decently over the past month until he got traded. Four
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: point one ERA eighteen to seven strike out walk ratio.
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: He had allowed one on run each in his last
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: two starts, so he did do okay except his last start.
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: He walked four against San Francisco and only struck out
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: one against the Boston Red Sox. Falter hasn't faced them
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: a lot, obviously, because the Red Sox have a lot
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: of young guys, and Falter has been in the National League.
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: Fourteen at bats that he has against the Red Sox hitters,
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: he's actually done okay against him. Two eighty six batting
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: average is somewhat high, but a seven thirty two OPS
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: isn't really that high. So not a lot of power
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: hitting from the Red Sox against Falter, so not a
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: horrible matchup for him. He's going up against Brian Bao,
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: who is pitching a lot better recently three point one
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: to nine e RA, one point two eight woman. He
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: was the guy that I actually had no faith in
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: man as a Red Sox fan, and now I kind
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: of do just the way he's been pitching more recently,
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: he's been pretty good a three point three to three
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: e RA at home, so he's been a little bit
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: worse at home. Zach, what's up, man? Your team is
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: facing mine tonight. Man, We'll see what happens. I mean,
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox are definitely the favorite in this game,
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: but it might not be the greatest spot for them
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: because it is a letdown spot. BeO, like I said,
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: has been pitching pretty well over the last month, though,
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: two point seven nine thirty one to nine strike a
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: walk ratio is not a lot more than three on
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: runs in any start going all the way back to
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: mid May, actually, and that was the only one in
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: the entire season. But the issue was he wasn't going
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: deep into games. He was walking too many guys, And
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: to a large extent, he's turned that around, and the
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: Red Sox have won four of his last six outings.
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: He's facing some pretty good teams in there too. Last outing,
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: he did walk four against Minnesota, but he did hold
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: him in a one run in seven innings as well,
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: so wasn't really a horrendous start. Although I'm hoping it's
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: wild this isn't starting to return here. But he actually
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: doesn't have really good numbers against Kansas City. I looked earlier.
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: Forty four at bats against him, they have a two
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: seventy three average, and they've hit him for some power
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: eight fifty six ops nine to four strike a walk ratio.
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: Frasier and Perez, of course, Perez each have a home
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: run off him, but BeO. That was back when BeO
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: wasn't really pitching as well as he is now, though,
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: so I think you have to kind of weigh what
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: he's done against the Royals in the past, with the
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: fact that he actually just kind of figured it out
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: and started pitching better recently. So it's hard to gauge
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: which one of these starters you like better. But Red
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: Sox are in the letdown spot, but they have the
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: better rest spot. So again you can see why I'm
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: not offering a play on this game. It's very difficult
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: to handicap this game. Red Sox seventy one percent tickets,
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: ninety two percent of the cash, but the line has
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: dropped on them a little bit, from minus one sixty
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: down to minus one fifties. Not a huge drop, but slightly.
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: It's some of the books that I think are a
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: little bit sharper than like Draft Kings, which is definitely
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: not a sharp book. Under it looks like sixty three
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets and only sixty one percent of the cash.
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: It looks like the total has kind of gone up
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: a little bit from nine to nine and a half. Here.
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know what that's about, because both bullpens are
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: actually fairly good. Red Sox obviously have the better well
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: they have the more rest of bullpen, but they obviously
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: have the better hitting as well. So the later in
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: the game. I think the Red Sox do have an
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: edge in the late portions of this game. They have
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: to get through the starting pitching thought wise. Again, it
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: looks like Bao might be at a disadvantage there, but
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: I don't know that it's that significant. So I might
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: have a slight lean to the Red Sox in that game,
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: but it's not significant at all. Milwaukee Atlanta, I will
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: skip for right now because I have an angle in
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: that game. That's going to be a play for me.
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: My only play of the day is a side in
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: that game, and it might not be what you expect.
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati is at the Cubs. The Cubs are staying at
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: home so they don't have to travel anywhere. Coming off
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: a pretty easy series against Baltimore. Cincinnati is in kind
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: of a weird spot as they were home against Atlanta,
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: but then in the most recent game, They're actually supposed
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: to have yesterday off, but their game got basically rained
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: out on Saturday and they had to play all but
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: the first inning yesterday, which means they had to unload
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: their bullpen yesterday. So you might know where I'm going
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: with that Milwaukee Atlanta game. Cincinnati and Atlanta both had
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: to unload their bullpens man in that weird game at
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: Bristol Motor Speedway, which did wind up being a low
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: scoring game, which I said I thought would, but that
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: was because of the starting pitching matchup, which wound up
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: not even really happening. So the bullpen's got really really
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: used yesterday because they had to pitch eight innings basically
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: a piece in that game. Cincinnati lost the game. Now
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: they're traveling up to Chicago from Tennessee. Cincinnati obviously does
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: not have the bullpen rest edge at all here, and
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: they have the worst bullpen anyway. Road A Wire has
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: this all fucked up, like it's saying that nobody pitched
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: on Sunday, but that's not accurate. I think every single
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: one of these relievers that is listed as having pitched
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: on Saturday actually pitched on Sunday when the game is
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: resumed yesterday. It's just that the official game counted as
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: a Saturday game because it started on Saturday, but their
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: relievers actually pitched yesterday. The clubs used four relievers as well,
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: so their bullpend isn't exactly rested either, but they do
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: have the better bullpen. Nic Lodolo is going to be
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: the starter for the Reds here, he's having a good
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: season three point h niney RA, one point zero five WHIP.
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: He's been better on the road as well, two point
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: two to three. Roady Rach well recently too, with a
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: one point eight to ninety RA and a ridiculous thirty
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: eight to four strike out walk ratio over the past month,
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: which factored into why I like to the under in
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: his last game against la Although he didn't last that
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: long in that game, he did pitch well and had
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: eleven k's in that game, So Lodolo he's in good
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: form right now. He is pitching well. He's facing another
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: strong lineup in the Cubs. Though the Cubs obviously have
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: the better offense here, Lodolo has not done well against
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: the Cubs. They've seen a lot of them because he's
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: in their division. Ninety at bats, twenty three to twelve
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio is not that great of a
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: ratio for him. Three point two to two are three
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: point two two batting average excuse, three to twenty two
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: batting average allowed not good, and nine to thirty five
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: ohps allowed not good, So Lodolo doesn't have good numbers
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: against the Cubs. And we have a lot of interesting
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: scenarios here, man, because we have four pitchers starting today
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: that got traded and they're pitching. They're making their debut
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: for their new teams today. So yeah, so we have
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: I've already talked about, uh one of them. I guess
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: in fault. Soraca is the second one. So Soroka got
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: traded from Washington to the Cubs. As the Cubs are
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: trying to bolster their off starting rotation. Here might be
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: a decent move for them. I get some starting rotation
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: depth here. Four point eight seven e RA doesn't look
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: that good, but his whip is pretty good. One point
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: one to three whip. He's in better at home, although
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: that was in Washington four point five to four ERA. Again,
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: he has some better like peripherals than what his RA
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: would suggest, a twenty three to nine strike a walk
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: ratio over the past month, even though Washington lost every
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: start that he made going all the way back to
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: early June, Washington lost nine straight starts where he was
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: on the hill, but over that span he only allowed
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: more than three ear runs and two of those starts.
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: Yet he did have a five point three two ERA
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: over the past month because he got rocked and one
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: start against the Red Sox, but since then he allowed
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: two or fewer earned runs and five straight starts, but
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: he didn't go up five innings in two of those starts,
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: and he did walk too many guys as some of
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: these starts, so his wildness started to come into place.
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: So Soroka, he's kind of a roller coaster, man, He's
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: really tough to gauge. Like overall, his numbers basically say
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: that his era is higher than it should be. So
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: he is kind of tough to figure out, man. And
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: maybe he'll be pumped up maybe now to pitch for
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: an obvious contender in the Cups. That's another thing you
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: gotta look for, man. I mean, these pictures go from
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: like a team that obviously is not contending to a
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: team that is contending. So you know, Falter Kansas City
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: is still in contention here. Man, that's a big series
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: during Kansas City and the Red Sox, So it might
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: cause these pictures to pitch better, right, So Soroka might
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: be happy that he's on, Yeah, like an obvious contender,
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: like I said, and up against who the hell are
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: you facing here? I already forget man, I talk about
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: that team and that I completely forget the Cincinnati Reds.
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: He has twenty eight at bats against them. They only
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: have three hits, zero extra base hands. On that they
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: have seven walks, nine strikeouts. But overall he's pretty much
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: completely dominated them one oh seven average three to ninety
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: three ohps. It's a small sample size, but based on
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: this matchup, you've got to give Siaka the edge in
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: this game. So probably it would probably make sense to
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: lean to the Cubs here. I mean, Cincinnati has kind
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: of that weird travel spot. It looks like seventy five
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets are actually on Cincinnati. It's very surprising.
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: See Cincinnati be the public side and fifty five percent
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the Cubs, and you're getting a
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: reasonable price on the Cubs. It's down for minus one
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: forty to the minus one thirties range. A bookmaker has
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: it a little bit higher than some of the other books,
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: the DraftKings. It's even higher than that DraftKings because of
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: the square shop. Sometimes, like basically they're they'll just have
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: heavier numbers on basically every favorite sometimes, so you don't
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: want to take like look at DraftKings to just say oh,
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: because it's a higher number on the favorite. That means
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: that's like a square side that's not necessarily the case.
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: Total is very low here at seven, which indicates that
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: the wind must be blowing in at wrigularly and it
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: is a pretty decent starting pitching matchup. But I think,
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: also based on the eras people are gonna probably look
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: at this, I think Ludolo he's the better picture because
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: he has the better ra and while I wouldn't really
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: disagree with that, I think he probably is the better picture.
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: But in this matchup, I think it gets totally evened
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: out and the Cubs have the rest edge with the bullpen,
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: they have the hitting edge, and they have the travel
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: edge because they're not traveling. So I think the Cubs
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: are actually probably the right side in that game, because
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: I was kind of considering that as a play. Actually,
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: to be honest, I think it's close to being worthy
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: of a play there. I do like the Cubs there.
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: Yankees at Texas. Texas is returning home from a road
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: trip to the Pacific Coast, so not usually typically a
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: great spot when you returning from a road trip. Texas
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: went to Anaheim and Seattle, big divisional matchups there for them.
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: Texas is playing I mean, they were playing decently until
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: very recently. They were on a real hot streak. Then
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: they actually lost on the road trip, they lost both series.
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: But coming home might not necessarily mean they're gonna bounce
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: back here. But the one thing that might keep the
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: focus is the fact that they're playing the Yankees. I mean,
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: when the Yank because they're coming to town, it's unlikely
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: you're gonna show up totally unfocused, even though when you
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: return home it can add some distractions, like I said,
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: having to return home and do things back and home.
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: But again, Texas they got to keep winning because they're
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: playing for playoffs, just getting too the playoffs. Right now,
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: they're playing against the Yankees, man, so I don't really
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: expect Texas to be unfocused here, and I don't think
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: the Yankees will be either. Off an embarrassing series against Miami.
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: They're traveling over to Texas from Miami, so some travel
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: there as well. Texas has the better bullpen. The Yankees
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: bullpen has been struggling. Texas only use two relief pitchers yesterday.
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: The Yankees also on the use two. But I'm gonna
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: give the bullpen edge to the Rangers, they've had the
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: better bullpen this year. Max Freed is back on the mountain.
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: On the surface, this just like a big time starting
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: pitching mismatch right between Freed and Coorbin and you know me.
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: Over the past few years, Corbin has been so bad
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: that I've been bashing Corbin quite a bit, although he's
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: pitching better with Texas's pitching coaches. Man Max Freed for
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: the Yankees here obviously having a really good season two
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: point six to two ERA, one point zero three whip,
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: little bit worse on the road, two point eight eight
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: R in the road, but he's really started to struggle
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: over the past month. Man. He had a five point
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: five to four ERA over the past month with a
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: twenty one to eleven strike a walk ratio and multiple
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: walks and all but one start there. So he really
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: started to pitch worse, even though he was still somewhat
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: holding the offenses in check, allowing four or fewer on
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: runs at all those starts. But still that wasn't up
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: to what he was doing earlier in the season. But
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: I did tell you that his numbers were just so
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: good early in the season they were kind of unsustainable.
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: So he is good, obviously, but he's not as good
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: as those numbers would suggest. Will he return to form
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: against a pretty bad Texas lineup? Maybe because he has
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: forty two at bats against him, and he's done pretty
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: well against him at thirteen to one, strike a walk. RAS.
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: You held him to a very low one sixty seven average,
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: but the OPS is a little bit higher at six
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: point fifteen, even though that's still really lull. But Texas
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: has a hit for some power off of him, even
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: though they're batting average is a good Haggardy h Gotshioka
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: and Seeger all of home runs off him. So I
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: still expect Freed probably pitches fairly well in this game, though.
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: Patrick KORbin for Texas As I said, I've never been
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: a huge fan, although he's been kind of difficult to
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: fade this year with a three point seven eighty RA
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: one point two to seven with this Texas team has
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: had good pitching this year. Man, he's a worse excuse
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: he's him better at home, excuse a three point one
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: ERA at home, which I should know that because I
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: pay attention to KORbin man over the past month, he's
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: actually pitched well two point three e RA twenty eight
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: to eight strike a walk ras here in Texas won
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: four out of the five starts. He allowed no more
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: than two earned runs in any of those starts over
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: the past month, so he's in fairly decent form right now.
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: Though he did walk three guys in his most recent outy,
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: which was the most since June twelfth. But he's in
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: pretty decent form right now against the Yankees, though hasn't
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: been as good in one hundred and seventy four at bats.
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: Korbin's been around for forever. The Yankees have seen a
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: lot of them throughout their careers. Thirty eight to sixteen
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio is not very good to eighty
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: seven average and eight to forty seven ops, so some
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: of the Yankees hitters have definitely hit him well. Stanton
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: is nine for twenty seven with a couple of bombs
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: and two walks against him. He's basically been the guy
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: that's on the most stand him and Bellinger. Bellingser ten
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: for twenty five with a double and five walks, So
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: maybe some player props there. Hits plus runs pless RBIs
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: so looking at the starting pitching matchup, I do think
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: you have to give the upper hand to Freed, Nancy,
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: what's up? Thanks for hanging out, Freed. I would have
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: to say he's got to have the starting pitching edge there,
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: but when you get into the bullpends, the pitching edge
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: shifts towards Texas. Although the Yankees obviously do have the
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: better offense as well, but their offense really has hit
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: or missed literally, man, Like, the Yankees will have games
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: with their offense does absolutely zero, and then they have
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: other games with their offense just massively explodes. The Yankees
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: have like one of the best run differentials in all
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: of baseball, but it's like like not evened out at all,
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: to the point where they'll win a game like seventeen
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: to one and then they'll lose like two to nothing
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: in the next game, you know what I mean. So
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: they do stuff like that. It's like, couldn't we transfer
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: some of those runs to the next game. But I'm
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: glad it's like that, man, because it makes them more
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: vulnerable that way. Work has you back. Oh shit, are
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: you like watching my show on brakes or something? And
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: I don't know what you're doing here, j man. I
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: don't know what it's like to be a working man anymore.
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: At this point for the last few months. Anyway, the
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: Yankees usually do have to pay a tax for the Yankees,
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: though we do see the cash coming in on the
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: Texas side, fifty percent of the ticket, seventy percent of
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: the cash. The money is kind of coming in on Texas. Texas,
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: I will say, does need to play with more? What
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: what's the word I'm looking for? Man? I can't, dude,
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: my brain is damaged. I had a stroke. I mean
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: it was long ago, but I just can't think of
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: the word that I want anymore. Like Texas needs to
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: have more motivation here. They need to play with more.
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: What's the word I'm looking for? Man? When you need
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: to like do something more quickly? Fuck? Why I think
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: of that word? Texas needs to play with whatever that
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: word as I hear more than the Yankees do, because
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: the Yankees still, I mean, they know they're gonna make
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, even though I know the Yankees hilariously have
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: actually flown into third place in the Al East and
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: they're behind my Boston Red Sox now after the weekend series,
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: so maybe they do have to both show up here.
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: But again, you're always paying too much of a price
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: for the Yankees. Especially with Freed on the mound. Should
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: they be a minus one forty whatever favorite where they opened,
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: They're down to minus like one thirty something at sub books. Probably,
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: Probably they should not be that heavy of favorite against
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: a pretty decent Texas team on the road, So there
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: might be some value in the line looking towards Texas.
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: It is supposed to be a pitching matchup with a
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: seven and a half total, it is a pitcher friendly ballpark.
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: Two oof oomph, Yeah, I don't know. That's not the
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: word I was actually looking for him. I was looking
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: for yes, urgency, Thank you, Zach. I don't know how
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: how can I not think of these words anymore? That
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: is exactly You're right. Texas might need have to play
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: with more urgency here because they're barely above five hundred
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: and fighting to even make the playoffs, or at least
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: the Yankees are almost definitively going to be at least
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: a wildcard here, although I would laugh hysterically if the
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: Yankees didn't even get a wildcard spot. It would be yeah,
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: like my dream come true. Man. But anyway, I would
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: probably have a slight lean to Texas in that game,
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: and I wouldn't want to deal with the total though,
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: because I would not trust Corbin enough to go under
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: a total here, So if anything, the total I might
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: actually lean towards an over in this game because Yankees
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: bullpend could get shot a little bit in this game.
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: And you know, I mean I just not literally don't
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: nukee me censors, but also I mean I don't know
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: if you could trust Corbin at all with his being
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: the starting pitcher there. Money is coming in on the
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: under though, sixty take seventy eight percent of the cash
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: on the under. Bookmaker has seven and a half with
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: one of the higher juices on the over those that's
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an indicator towards an over there.
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: Toronto at Colorado, Colorado is staying at home, so they're
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: staying in elevation off of that crazy series against Pittsburgh.
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: Over the weekend, Toronto is having to travel here off
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: a series against Kansas City. Usually when you start a
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: road trip it is a focused spot. Toronto did lose yesterday,
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: so could be a bounce back spot, refocused spot for them.
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: Toronto's sitting atop the Al EasTone, probably not as good
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: as their record indicates, and they do have to go
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: into elevation here and try to adapt to that. Toronto
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: obviously has the better offense out of these two teams,
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: though they also have the better bullpenal they used a
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: lot of relievers. Yesterday they used five relief pitchers. Yesterday
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: Colorado used three or yeah, three, So Colorado's bullpen is
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: a little bit more rested. Toronto's is generally better though,
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: and maybe you still have to give Toronto a little
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: bit of a bullpen edgeer because I think Eric Lower,
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: you'd think would probably get them a little bit deep
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: into this game, because he's been really good for Toronto
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: this year. Two point six to eighty RA point nine
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: to five whip. He's in basically pretty good the same
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: home and away, just slightly worse on the road. Two
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: point seven forty IRA over the past month, a ridiculous
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: thirty to three strike out walk ratios. His command has
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: been excellent over the past month two point seven to
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: ninety RA allowed two or fewer eared runs in all
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: five of those starts. Very very good stuff from Lower.
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: Recently up against Colorado's offense, which like I said, is
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: not a very good offense, he's unfairly decently against them
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: in forty two at bats to sixty two batting ours
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: six seventy six ops allowed nine to two strike at
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. So I would expect LOWERD to still do
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: well here, even though it is the tough environment of
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: course field here, I would still expect LOWERD to do
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: pretty well. You think you have to bench him? What
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: are his numbers at corese So I have to go
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: look at that. Now. ESPN doesn't really tell you. It
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: doesn't give you like this, the the splits, the stadium splits.
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: I hate how ESPN doesn't do that, man, I mean
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: they do. They give you the stadium splits, but you
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: can only look at it season by season. You can't like,
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: why don't they give you the totals as a whole.
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: It's bullshit, man. So I don't know why they do that.
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: I mean I could try to look like briefly, but
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what his numbers are cores. He probably
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: hasn't pitched there that much. He did pitch there. He
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: had a zero e er there and he went four
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: and two thirds and didn't allow any runs in his
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: last start there just two years ago. So that's not
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: that bad. At cores of the year before that, Yeah,
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: he did get bombed, gave up seven runs and two
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: and two thirds innings. Gonna start there in twenty twenty two.
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: In twenty twenty one, well, he was pitching there every
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: year prior to that. Went five innings, gave up three
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: in runs. Mediocre start there, That wasn't that bad twenty twenty.
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: I'm going through it all for you, man, for you baby,
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: for j Maine. I got some time today. I'm not
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: really doing anything. I did not pitch a course field
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: that year in twenty twenty, the stupid with COVID year
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: twenty nineteen, we're looking at it up man, I don't
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: know what these numbers are gonna come out to. Though.
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: He did really poorly there in eight innings. He got
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: absolutely hammered for seventeen on and runs. So yeah, you're right.
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: He did not pitch well in Corps early in his
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: career at the very least. His best start was his
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: most recent one at Corps, though. Wow, he's pitched a
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: lot in Cores. He had a three any performance in
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: twenty eighteen, allowed six in RUSS. You're right, he's mostly
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: been bad at course field, but this current Rockies lineup sucks,
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: and his most recent start was pretty decent at cours Field.
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, it was okay, he didn't go five innings,
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: but he didn't give up any runs, So I don't know.
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, maybe maybe you can bench him in that fantasy.
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: But the first game of a series, of course, field
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: the Unders are hitting. I don't know how to see
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: those numbers really. Maybe stat muse might help out with that.
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: Stat Muse kind of lets you like slice and dice
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: data like that. I don't know, but first games of
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: series are going under. It kind of makes sense because
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: when teams have to trap, that kind of affects the
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: hitting and the timing and stuff. So it kind of
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: makes sense that the games would go under. But the
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: totals have been too high. Of course, field Man, that's
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: the thing. The osbeakers always adjust the totals to account
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: for the fact that there's a lot of hitting at
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: course Field, but they haven't really adjusted to how bad
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: Colorado's offense is, so they have to kind of find
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: a middle ground between those two. Tanner Gordon is pitching
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: for Colorado four point eight five yr one point five
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: for Whip Here he's doing way better at home two
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: point nine to five yr. For whatever reason, He's pitching
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: a lot better at home, but it's a very small
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: sample size. Really bad as last outing, which is of
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: course on the road though a three inning outing sixerned
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: runs a lot against Cleveland. That's not that great. Overall,
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: fifteen to eight strike a walk ratio this year is
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: not very good. Gordon very mediocre pitcher man. He's not
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: that great going up against who are we talking about here? Again?
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: I already forget, dude, My mind doesn't work this way.
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: I always forget what we're talking about here. We're talking
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: about out Toronto. Yeah, going up against Toronto Tanner. Gordon
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: has never been seen before, so he might have a
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: little bit of an extra edge against Toronto has never
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: faced him before, so you know, uh yeah, Lower, I
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: actually kind of don't uh, I don't mind the the
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: under in this one. What is that? Three plus hits
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: us runs puss RBIs for for warming. I don't even
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: know who that who that is? To be honest, Bernabyle
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: versus Lefties hits us runs pass RBIs was minus one
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: sixty on that yesterday. So you think he's gonna go
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: over one and a half today? What's oh? Because yeah,
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: Lower is a lefty, I guess right. Yeah, I don't know, man,
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: I don't do a whole lot with player props, but
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: I do just kind of look at, like, what, like
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: what the specific batter's numbers are against him? Right? Uh,
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: so you gotta I'm looking at Kansas City, my mistake.
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: I gotta switch it back to Colorado. Spending too much
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: time on this game here. But you said, uh, who
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: you're talking about here again? Bernobyl? Wait? What are we
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: looking at? Where he warming and Bernobyl? Well, they don't
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: have any track record against him, right? Is that we're
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: seeing here? Eric Lower? They haven't faced him at all before,
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: but you're looking at what their numbers are against lefties.
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: I guess I am, But they've never faced Lower before.
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: So with a hitter not having seen the picture before,
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure I would want to play hit a
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: hit or prop over in that case. Yeah. Anyway, it's
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: difficult to figure out what to do in that game.
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: The total was at eleven and a half and now
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: it's actually up to twelve, so the total has gone
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: way up. Yeah, he's a rookie. I've never heard of him.
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: Total has gone up, so that's you know, I mean,
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: take all that information in. I guess but Toronto is
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: also up for minus one ninety five to minus two hundred.
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: It's some books, very very high number there for Toronto.
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, Lower has been pitching really well this year,
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: but I don't know if a number that high is
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: really justified a total that high. I would almost still
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: be saying you might want to look to a first
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: five inning under because the total is gonna be really
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: really high in that one there. But like you said,
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: it might be tough to do that because Lower earlier
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: in his career was really bad at course, but this
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: is a bad Rocky lineup this year. Man Anaheim is
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: staying at home. They just beat the White Sox to
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: end a losing streak for them. Andrew's Anaheim team here
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: they obviously have the worst bullpen against basically anybody. They
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: do have the worst bullpend here against Tampa Bay. Tampa
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: Bay is starting a road trip, so it could be
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: a decent spot to refocus Timba Bay has been playing
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: pretty cold baseball recently. Man, They've lost a lot of
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: recent games, have lost nine of their last eleven games.
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: They're coming off some big series against the Yankees, and
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers didn't do well in those series. So I
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: could see it going both ways. Man, They're coming off
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: some tough series, so it could be a hangover spot.
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: But the fact they're going out on the road and
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: they actually haven't scored a run in three straight games,
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: ascuse you know they did they beat the Dodgers. Excuse
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: me that game. That series is all shutouts. But Tampa
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: did win one of those games, so they didn't score
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: a run in two of the three games. But the
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: fact they're coming up a shutout like that might mean
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: maybe the one to bounce back a little bit and
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: have a little bit more focus here. Like I said, obviously,
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: Anaheim is the worst of the bullpends. They used three
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday and Tampa Bay also used three. But
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: I'll give the bullpen edge to Tampa. And we have
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: another starter who is making their debut for a new team.
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: Adrian Houser, might be a decent pick up for Tampa
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: Bay as Tampa is trying to make a playoff push here.
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: He was pitching really surprisingly well for the White Sox
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: this year two point one ERA, one point two to
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: whip a little bit worse on the road two point
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: seven to five ERA. On the road, he'd won six
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: straight starts for the White Sox behind a pretty bad
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: White Sox lineup. But the White Sox did start hitting
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: a little bit recently. But he pitched against a lot
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: of not very good teams in there, man, So we'll
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: have to figure out what we want to do with Houser,
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: because the only good teams that he faced throughout that
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: whole stretch were I guess, the Matts, Toronto, Twiss and
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: the Cubs. And other than that, he faced Baltimore, Kansas City,
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: It's EXAs, San Francisco, Colorado, Pittsburgh. Those are bad offense. Seattle,
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: I guess is an okay offense, but I guess as
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: a whole he was pitching pretty well, uh two point
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: four two ERA sixteen to eight strike a walk ratio
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: ratio over the past month. It didn't allow with the
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: three and runs, and then he started those were his
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: most recent starts. One he didn't do well against Pittsburgh though,
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: a long ten hits in four to third innings. That's
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: not that good allowing that many hits to a bad
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh team. And then he did okay against the Cubs,
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: but he did walk three guys against the Cubs in
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: sixty two thirds innings three and runs allowed overall. I
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: still think he's doing all right, though, and going up
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: against Anaheim, which is gonna be a step down from
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: the Cubs. Although Anaheim has a mediocre offense, they haven't
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: seen much of him. Only Darnault and Moncata I've ever
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: faced him before, and they're only two for eight off
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: him two fifty average, five eighty three oh ps, no
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: extra base hits, one walk strikeouts. A howser might of
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: the upper hand in this matchup against that offense, because
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: mostly they haven't seen him before and he is pitching
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: well this season. He's going up against yuse Kakuchi, who
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: I find tough to figure out man because he continues
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: to not allow runs, but his whip is terrible. Three
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: point three ERA but one point four to whip is
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: unbelievably bad. I mean, you cannot put close to one
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: and a half guys on basin inning and continue to
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: get away with it, So I don't get it. He
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: does pitch better at home, though, two point four to
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: eighty r at home over the most recent starts. I
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: mean again, he's not allowing that many runs, really allowing
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: four or fewer in every start over the past month,
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: but had a four point eight eighty RA, which isn't
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: that great because it wasn't going that deep into these games.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: He had a thirty three to ten strike a walk ratio,
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: good strikeout ray, but a high walk rate last couple
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: of starts to give up a lot of hits. Man,
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: he give him seventeen hits in thirteen innings. That's not
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: a great sign, and six earned runs over that span too.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: He also has allowed six home runs over the past month,
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: which is not a G eight sign either. He's not
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: really pitching that well right now. I'm in overall, I
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: think he's he's gonna regress to some extent, so I
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: don't know if I trust him here. But he is
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: facing a very weak oh no excuse, not a very
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: weak White Sox lineup. What am I saying? He's facing
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: a Tampa lineup that's mediocre. But he's done fairly well
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: against them in eighty six at bats, twenty eight to eight,
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio, one ninety eight batting average, five
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: eighty ops, So his numbers are actually fairly good against Tampa.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: Strength of opponent only when it's like a smaller sample size,
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: really as far as what the pitcher is done. Once
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: you get into a larger sample size, it kind of
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: starts evening out, like the fact, like, oh, they face
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: some good teams and some bad teams in there. Usually
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: I look at the specific matchup more than anything else,
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: and like this, I'm more of a situational guy though,
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: So baseball I do more like statistical analysis than I
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: do in the other sports. The other sports, I go
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: almost purely based on situation, like, oh, this team is
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: in like a letdown spot or a hangover spot or whatever,
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: which if you keep following me, you'll see what happens. Again,
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: it's a football because that's what I do and it
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: works out fairly well. So, I mean baseball is just
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: a more statistical sport. Really, it's more like very much
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: a one on one matchup between one guy and another
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: guy pitcher versus hitters. So it's really different than like
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: a really just the whole team is on the field,
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: team versus team. So if that explains it, I don't know.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: But in this game, yeah, it's it's difficult to figure
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: this game out, man. I mean, I think probably money
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: is coming in on the under in this game. I
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: would guess eighty three percent take is ninety percent of
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: the catch on the over total looks like it's coming
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: from eight and a half to being juiced to the
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: under on the eight and a half though, so I
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: still think the under first five innings is worth a look,
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: maybe just because Howser has been pitching well, Kakuchi good
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: numbers against Tampa's lineup at least, and he does pitch
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: well at home at the very least. And I would
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: slightly lean to Tampa Bay here because it is a
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: bad spot for Anaheim because they are turning over road
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: trip and oh no, there's no excuse me, they're not.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: Never mind, I thought it was a bad pop Ranaheim,
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: but it's not. They're staying at home. But still I
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: think I probably slightly lean into Tampa Bay though tickets
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: eighty percent of the cash coming in on the Tampa
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: Bay probably has more urgency because they're still in the
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: playoff hunt. The line has dropped a little bit on
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: Anaheim daff for minus one thirty to minus one twenty,
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: and I think Tampa Bay overall is the better team,
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: and I'd probably give them the pitching edge pretty much
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: across the board in this game, and the hitting isn't
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: that much different. So I do think getting Tampa Bay
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: as an underdog is worth maybe a look in that game.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: Oh thank you, sir. I appreciate it. Man, I'd like
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: to get some more viewers. Man, the once I do,
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: I won't be able to like respond to everybody in
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: the chat. And then again, people are gonna be in
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: the chat like talking shit and whatever. Which it's fine
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: if you want to talk shit about you know, disagree
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: with me on picks and whatever. I'm definitely down for that.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: I'm not down with like, I don't really want to
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: get too political on this show, even I know I'm
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: a political ship poster and like personal attacks, I'm just like, yeah,
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: fuck off. Even though I've I've dealt on some as well.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: I've gotten a little bit mad on the show. But yeah,
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: San Diego at Arizona pretty big series for San Diego here. Man,
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: it's a divisional series. San Diego is in the thick
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: of the playoff race here. They need to keep winning.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: Obviously Arizona is out of it, so it's gonna be
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: interesting here. Arizona's also returning home from a weird road
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: trip where they went to Pittsburgh, Detroit and then came
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: all the way back, flew cross basically cross country to
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: the A's to Sacramento, and now they're returning to Arizona.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: A very very strange travel situation here, but generally return
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: home spot. And you know what I always say, it's
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: it tends to be an unfocused spot. And maybe they'll
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: focus because they do face a division rival here, so
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: maybe they want to stick it to San Diego here.
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: But then again, Arizona might be feeling a little bit
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: down on themselves because they know they're not going anywhere
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: this year. So San Diego has more reason to show
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: up in this game because they need to keep winning.
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: San Diego has been a momentum right now. They're hot
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: right now, man. I mean they've won seven of their
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: last eight games, and they're coming off a win over
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: Saint Lewis yesterday. Going on the road usually a focused
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: spot when you start a road trip, So I expect
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: San Diego will show up and play well in this
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: game as well. But San Diego, even though they have
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: one of the top bullpens in all of baseball, they
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: used a lot of their relievers yesterday. They used five
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday, Man, so they're bullpen rest scenario isn't
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: exactly that good here. Arizona certainly has the worst of
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: the two bullpens, and they used four relievers as well,
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: So I guess the bullpen edge still goes to San
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: Diego just because their bullpen is so much better than Arizona's.
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: But Arizona definitely has a rest advantage, at least in
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: the bullpen. And we have our last starting pitcher that
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: changed teams of the trade deadline. JP Sears came over
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: to San Diego with I forget the guy's name, the
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: relief pitcher that San Diego got from the A's Mason Miller,
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: So both of those guys came over in that deal.
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: JP Sears. I mean, he's been a decent pitcher, and
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: I think his numbers probably should get better because he's
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: going from one of the worst pitching ballparks all Baseball
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: and that horrible Sacramento Triple A Stadium to the A's
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: plan all the way to pitching in San Diego, where
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: San Diego is a much more pitcher friendly park. Although
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: we're not in San Diego tonight right We're in Arizona here,
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: which is a hitter friendly Park, but overall, Sears four
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: point nine to five r this year one point two
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: seven whip not that bad indicates it. His ra maybe
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: should be a little bit lower than that. He's generally
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: been a little bit better on the road this year,
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: but that's because he was away from that Triple A
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: stadium again. Four point five to five yr on the
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: road past month, okay, numbers four point four to four ERA,
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: thirty to seven strike out walk ratio only allow more
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: than three in runs once over those five starts, so
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: his strikeout walk ratio was good. He actually had a
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: fairly high strikeout rate over the past month as well,
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: so he's not pitching that poorly. He's doing all right.
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: He's facing an Arizona lineup that is fairly strong, but
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: they did trade a couple other better hitters, so it's
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: a little bit less strong now. Sears very small sixteen
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: at bat sample says against their current lineup, but Arizona's
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: hit him fairly well three twelve batting average nine to
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: thirty eight. Ohps uh. Gurie Old Junior as a home
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: run off him as well, So Sears hasn't done particularly
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: well against this Arizona lineup. Tatise Uh, the not the
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: line is three on hits most runss RBIs or is
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: that an alternate line? Seventy percent versus diam Max. I'm
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: trying to figure out. I'm not sure what that stat
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: is there, seventy percent plus. Uh what does that mean? Uh?
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: He like he hits his his player prop that often
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: against the DBAs he hits six point fifteen in Arizona's park. Interesting,
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: all right, Uh, yeah, that is definitely that's some good info.
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: That's something to take into account there. Uh, and we'll
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: look at what Fot has done against Tatis as well.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: Brandon Fott pitching for Arizona five point one, one point
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: three to one whip. Not a good whip, but again,
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: I think he is better than his numbers appear. I
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: think he is gonna start to get better. And even
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: though it's a hitter from the park, he's been way
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: better at home. Three point six eighty I ra at
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: home in more innings pitch. He's allowed only three home
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: runs at home, and he's allowed seventeen on the road.
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: I don't think I've ever seen that ridiculous of a
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: home run split between home and away ever, I mean,
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: that's crazy. He's way better at home hasn't been that.
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: I mean he's been all over the place recently. Four
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: point three to five yar RAI over the past month,
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: twenty six to four strike a walk ratio is actually good.
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: His last start was awful. He gave up eleven runs.
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: Of course it was on the road. Three home runs
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: allowed in that game. Seven are runs at Detroit, four
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: and two thirds in he's pitched. Detroit's a good team,
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: especially at home, So maybe you give thought a little
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: bit of a pass for that because he'd gone three
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: starts in a row before that. Not line, we're in
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: the two urn runs. Will he do well in this
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: start against a Podres lineup that does have some talent
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: but just hasn't been living up to it this year.
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: I don't know. FOTS numbers are not good against the
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: Padres and hundred and thirteen at bats twenty six to
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: five strang a walk ratio is good, but three to
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: ten batting every seven to fifty five ops that's not
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: that good for FOT. I mean those numbers are not
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: good at all. Really, Strego walk ratio is good, but
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: the average and ops bad for FOT. Sorry, I'm trying
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: to keep my thoughts in my mind here that I've
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: got a bunch of thoughts going around here. So generally
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: I think FOT is probably not gonna do particularly well
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: in this game, and it is a bad spot for Arizona,
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: so I actually might give Seers a little bit of
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: the upper hand and the starting pitching matchup man al
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: though against Sears, what did I say as matchup numbers
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: were here against Arizona? They weren't that good? Right, No,
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: they're not that good? So actually I don't know, man,
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: Maybe an over is the best way to look at
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: this game. Tatis, by the way, is only four for
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: twenty off of fots. That's not very good. A double
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: and a home run in there though, with six k
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: is no walks, so it's not maybe not the greatest
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: matchup for Tatis here against this specific pitcher. Three was
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: a ladder. Oh yes, I don't know that I would
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: play it in this game just because of the pitching matchup.
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: But the pitching matchup doesn't always come true overall, though, Yeah,
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: I mean probably the over is probably the way that
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: I would lean in this game. And then you have
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: two bullpens that are not very well rested and one
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: bullpen that really isn't that good either, seventy to seven
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets ninety one percent of the cash in
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: the over totals dropped from nine and a half to
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: nine though, but bookmaker has it juice to the over,
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: although actually most of the books do so not really
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: much of an indicator there, we'll see. And then as
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: far as the side, San Diego is actually favored on
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: the road eighty three percent of tickets on them, but
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: fifty six percent of the cash coming in on Arizona.
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: They've dropped from minus one forty to minus one twenty
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: at most places. So the market read basically saying Arizona
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: looks like they're getting the money here, But I'm not
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: gonna want to play Arizona in a return home spot. Man,
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: There's just no way that I would do that. I mean,
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: maybe the professional guys they do like fat overseers, and
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: I do understand that sentiment he is way better at home.
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: That somewhat makes sense, But again I kind of think
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: over is the way to look there. And Saint Louis
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: at LA and then I'll go to my best bet.
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: LA is returning home from a road trip, and they
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: went to Boston Cincinnati and Tampa Bay, and they came
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: off the shutout of Tampa Bay yesterday and traveling cross
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: country not a great spot for LA. You know, as
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: I keep saying, it tends to be a little bit
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: of a distracted spot when your return home from a
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: road trip like that. You got to get back home.
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis being their opponent, Saint Louis is kind of
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: falling out of the race, man, so they might not
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: pay a whole lot of attention to Saint Louis here.
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis is on the Pacific coast already, so they
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: don't have to adjust to the times. It's a pretty
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: decent travel edge for Saint Louis here. They just have
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: to go up from San Diego to LA, so the
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: travel is way better for Saint Louis. Actually, in this game,
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: the bullpens LA has not really had a good bullpend
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: this year, man, and they used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna give the bullpen edge to Saint Louis. Even
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: though they traded some of their guys away. The usage
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: hasn't been that that much for them. They used two
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: rules pitchers yesterday, So give Saint Louis the bullpen edge.
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: Dodgers obviously have the hitting edge. They hit really well
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: at home, so they have the better hitting Sonny Gray
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: is fifty for Saint Louis. He's been decent throughout the season.
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: He's been decent throughout his career as ERA has gone
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: up recently though four point three eighty RA one point
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: two to two whip on the season. The worry with
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: him is he's been way worse on the road five
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: point eight four ERA on the road, not very good
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: past month. His numbers are kind of ridiculous over the
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: past month because he had an atrocious seven point eight
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: one ERA, yet his command numbers were insane thirty two
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: to three strike out walk ratio. How the hell do
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: you have an ERA almost eight across six starts with
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: a thirty two to three strike out walk ratio. I
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: do not know, other than the fact that he was
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: getting lit up with hits mostly over the past three starts.
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: He gave up eleven hits to Arizona and San Diego
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: and give it fourteen runs over that span of eight
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: and the third just ridiculous, really really bad numbers. Of
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: those three had to give it five home runs in
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: those three starts. But what about him against the Dodgers.
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, we already know he doesn't do well on
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: the road. Does he do well against the Dodgers? Probably not. No.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: In one hundred and thirty five at bets, he does
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: have a good strike out walk ratio thirty four to eight,
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: but two ninety six batting average eight thirty seven ops
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: not good. So yeah, Sonny Gray, his numbers are not
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: good against the Dodgers, not good on the road. Could
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: potentially be a fade spot for Sonny Gray here. He's
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: going up against Tyler Glass though, though, which I don't
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: think you want to go over in a full game
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: with Glass now on the mound, dude. Three point three
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: eighty RA, one point one to five WHIP on the season.
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: He just came back from injury not long ago this season,
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: very limited sample size, but two point one sixty RA
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: at home. He's been good at home. I didn't pitch
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: well in his last outing, though. He came back from
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: injury at the beginning of July, and he was doing
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: really well across his first three starts. Definitely stumbled in
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: his most recent start, allowing four and runs in four
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: innings against Cincinnati. And walked five guys. That's not a
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: good I'm it's a very unfriendly park for pitchers. Though
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: at Cincinnati he may return to form because he's really
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: good generally, and he's better at home since he's come
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: back twenty six to ten strike a walk races. He
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: used too many walks, but five in the last outing,
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: maybe that's a bit of an outlier. Two point four
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: to five year Ray over the past month is obviously good.
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: And his numbers, I'm about to show you these are
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: some crazy numbers. Man. His numbers up against Saint Louis here,
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: it's not a huge sample size, but it's ridiculous. Twenty
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: two at bats they're zero for twenty two, often with
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: seven strike guns and three walks, zero average and one
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: twenty ops. Glasnow has absolutely had his way with Saint
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: Louis's with Saint Louis's offense man, so Glasnow he does
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: have the upper hand of the starting pitching matchup, and
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: that's kind of the problem with if you want to
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: fade the Dodgers here in the return home spot, because
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: it is a spot where you potentially want to go
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: against them. They don't have the better bullpen, but Glasnow
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: looks like he has the way better. I mean, he
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: has the better of the pitching matchup here. The Dodgers,
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: you have to lay a huge price. They're down for
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: minus one eighty five to minus one seventy whatever around
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: minus one eighty ninety percent of tickets, only eighty eight
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash they're public. I wouldn't want anything
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: to do with the Dodgers here, really. I mean, if
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: you do do something with them, first five inning run
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: line is probably the way that you would want to
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: go with the Dodgers. But in this spot, I don't
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: trust their hitting actually on the return home spot man,
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: So I actually lean to an under in this game
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: early on in the game, not in the full game,
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: but seventy percent of the ticket's only sixty two percent
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the under. Those of the market
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: read looks kind of against it. It's gone up to
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: some extent from eight. Well, actually the numbers are all
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: over the place. It open at eight juice to the over,
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: but we see eight and a half juice to the
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: under its super book, which I believe is in Vegas,
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: and then we have eight at DraftKings Juice to the
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: over bookmakers also juice to the over even a little
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: bit more than that, and then Heritage has it juiced
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: to the under, and so does Caesars. This is very
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: difficult to readmat. I don't get what's going on with
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: this market, So you might be right about the over.
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: If you want to go Dodgers over their team total.
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: I would not go like with an over in this
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: full game, though, because I would not fade those glass
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: no statistics there. You know what, probably under team total
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: first five innings Saint Louis is maybe the best way
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: to look at this and get really granular, where then
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: it just go to glasnow to handle Saint Louis's offense.
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: That might be the best way to look at this.
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: You want to go Dodgers over their team total, I
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: don't really necessarily disagree with that either. I mean, I
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: think they might wind up being able to get to us.
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis is pitching enough in this game to get
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: whatever it would be, five whatever runs there. Maybe. I
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: mean it's a little bit of an ass though, but
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers are I believe they're the highest scoring home
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: team in all baseball. And now let's go to my
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: best bet man, and then I'll get out of here.
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: Not the longest show. I was hoping it would be
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: a little bit shorter on a Monday where there are
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: some teams off decent sized baseball card here. But my play, yes, sir, Yeah,
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: Well I'm not right about everything, man, but we'll see.
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: I was not right on my plays yesterday. But my
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: best bet here is the Brewers on the side, and
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: you want if you want to play the money line,
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: you can do it. I think they're in the minus
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: one forty something range. You want to play the run line.
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: It's kind of like a spread bet. I saw it around
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: plus one point fifteen out there. I'm kind of recommending
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: just a split bet on this where you go half
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: and half. I know it's not huge, not a huge
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: ball play here where you're kind of just splitting it.
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: So basically, if they win but they don't win by
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: more than one and a half, you'll actually win a
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: small amount of money. But it's the more risk averse
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: way to play this kind of versus the like you
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: have to like put less money up than you would
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: if you if you played the run line at the
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: very least if you want to win the same amount,
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: but you have to put even less money up if
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: you want to go with the run line there, then
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: if you think the Milwaukee we'll be able to win
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: by margin, maybe just go straight up on the run
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: line there. It might make sense to just go all
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: run line. Now, Milwaukee does play well on the road.
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: They hit well on the road, so that is definitely
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: one thing to consider here. I believe Milwaukee is the
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: better bullpen here and Atlanta they torched their bullpen yesterday
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: do because as I just said, this is not accurate.
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: All of these relievers, five relievers that are listed as
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: having pitched on Saturday, they actually all pitched yesterday and
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: that continuation of the game yesterday for Atlanta in Bristol
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: Motor Speedway. So Atlanta used a lot of their bullpen yesterday.
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: And Milwaukee has the better bullpen anyway, they've been pitching
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: better recently. But they only used three relief pitchers and
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: including long relief man Dl Hall, so their bullpend most
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: of their best relievers are available today. So Brewers have
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen situation here and the better bullpen Atlanta's
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: returning home and they were on the road. They were
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: at Texas, then at Kansas City, then at Cincinnati, then
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: they went to Tennessee to play to play against Cincinnati
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: in Bristol Motor Speedway, and now they're returning home. So
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: this is a return home spot for Atlanta here. So again,
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: you know, I keep harping on IT teams when they
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: return home from road trips. They tend to be distracted.
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: And I know they're facing a good team in Milwaukee,
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: so they might want to show up with one of
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: the top teams in baseball here. I think Milwaukee is
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: a legitimate contender now. Man, They've gotten all these starters
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: in the rotation. They're one of the top fielding teams
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: and base running teams in all of baseball, and they
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: can hit too. They look like a dangerous team and Milwaukee.
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: I kind of like them to win the whole thing
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: right now. I wouldn't mind it if they did, because
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: it means it's not the Yankees of the Dodgers. So Atlanta,
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: maybe they'll show up because it's Milwaukee, but Atlanta, I mean, man,
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: they've fallen off tough times. They know they're done this year,
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: so we'll see how motivated they really are. Is Milwaukee
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: at the very least needs to continue playing because they're
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: in a race there for the NL Central against Chicago. Man,
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: I'm sure they prefer to avoid a wildcard, so I
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: think Milwaukee will show up here. They have the better offense,
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: they have the better bullpen, more rested bullpen. Do they
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: have the better starter. I would say so. With Quinn
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: Priester on the mon I mean, you continues to defy expectations,
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: but I'm kind of I'm not going to fade what
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: he's been doing right now. Man, three point two seventy RRA,
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: one point two to three whip. He's been a little
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: bit worse on the road three point four to seventy RRA,
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: but that's still pretty good. He's allowed two or fewer
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: earned runs at all but one start, going all the
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: way back to May second, the last time he allowed
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: more than that. And we're at a point now where
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: the Brewers of one eleven starts in a row with
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: priests on the mound. It's ridiculous. And over the past
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: month three point oh seventy in twenty eight to eight
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio, as his command numbers have been good.
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: He's gone six or more innings and three out of
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: the last four starts, which is also pretty good. So
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: he's getting himself fairly deep into these games. He's not
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: using a lot of pitches really either, so his pitch
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: count isn't really escalating that much either, which is I
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: think is helping because they're not overworking. They're not letting
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: him go, you know, one hundred pitches in all these starts,
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: so I think that's keeping him a little bit fresh,
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: which is something you do want to do as a
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: young guy, and he hasn't. I don't think he's quite
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: pitching the entire season either as a starter. I think
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: he was kind of I thought he was kind of
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: coming out of the bulp, and at some point maybe
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: I'm wrong about that. So I don't know, because at
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: some point I would worry that maybe he'll start to
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: wear down a little bit because he's a young guy
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: who's not used to pitching, like pitching this amount in
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: an entire season. But we'll see against the Braves, his
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: numbers are interesting that he does allow a lot of
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: like contact to them, but it's been all light contact. Basically.
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 1: They don't have any good power numbers against him. In
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: thirty four at bats eight to one strike out walk ratio,
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: two to ninety four batting average allowed, doesn't look good,
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: but six ninety seven ops is not that high. So
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: I think priester Ken do well against him here, and
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: I think some of that was in the past when
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: he wasn't as good as he is now. Last time
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: out against Atlanta, he did face them back in June,
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: and yes, it means they did see him recently, but
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: he went six innings along one and run against them,
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: seven strikeouts, no walks, seven hits, so he had a
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: really nice start in that one. So even though they
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: might be recent familiar with him, I don't think it
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: matters that much. And guess who's familiar with Atlanta's picture here, Yeah,
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: that would be Milwaukee's offense. I would say they're pretty
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: familiar with Eric Fetti, who was so bad that, uh,
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: the Saint Louis Card's just dfade him. And by the way,
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: the I forget. I don't know if it's DraftKings or
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: FanDuel or whatever. One of one of them puts up
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: this graphic on their Twitter feed where it shows the
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: picture and it shows dfaid all in caps and it
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: looks like it says dead. Like I laugh every single
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: day every single time I see that. But Fedti was
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: so bad for Saint Louis this year and they're kind
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: of out of it, but they were just like, yeah,
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: you're out of here. And now he's on the Braves.
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: And I think the only reason he's even in the
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: Braves rotation is because the Braves have so many injuries.
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: As I pointed out, sale Smith's, Smith, Shover and Schwellenbacher
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: all hurt right now for the Braves, so Fetti wouldn't
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: even make the starting rotation. Otherwise they might have him
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: as like a long relief man. Otherwise, he's not good
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: five point three to three ERA this year, one point
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: five whip. He was fitching better on the road as well.
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: He wasn't good at home when he was on Saint
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: Louis five point six six ERA at home, so that
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: probably doesn't bode well here either. He's only made one
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: start for Atlanta and it was not good, and it
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: was against a bad Royals offense, and he was not
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: good in that start. When four and two thirds, two walks,
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: five hits, four and runs, allowed three strikeouts and a homer.
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: That's not good. And of course, as I was alluding to,
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: he was just on Saint Louis for so long that
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: the Brewers were facing him in their division for so long. Yeah,
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: the Brewers obviously have a lot of experience against him.
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: Eighty at bats. I mean it's a pretty big sample size,
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: but the Brewers have absolutely smashed him, Like you don't
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 1: see numbers that are this crazy usually for an offense
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 1: in a sample size of eighty fourteen to eleven strike
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio is not good, but they have a
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: four to twenty five batting average off of him in
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: eighty at bats. Again, that's insane. You don't see anything
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: like that usually. And this is with Churio out of
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 1: the lineup for Milwaukee. He's hurt right now, so he's
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: not listed here. Milwaukee still just rakes against him one
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: thousand and ninety five whip as well, So I think
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 1: Fetti is absolutely up against it here. I think Milwaukee
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: has the edge. All that being said, completely across the
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 1: board here, situation, starting, pitching, bullpen, bullpen, rest hitting, it
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: all goes to Milwaukee. So we're gonna go with Milwaukee
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: in this game. I mean, the public is probably gonna
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: be on Milwaukee as well. I mean, it almost looks
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: easy to do it seventy eight percent of tickets, but
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: ninety one percent of the cash on Milwaukee, and the
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: line's gone up a little bit from minus one thirty
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 1: five into the minus one forty whatever range. It's back
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: down a bookmaker, though not of minus one thirty five.
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: But like I said, doesn't necessarily indicate that the sharp
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 1: side is going against that. It's just that Bookmaker being
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: like a book that caters to the sharps, they tend
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: to not like have it as heavy a number on
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: most of the favorites. I'm not gonna take that much
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: away from that, but that's the play man, Milwaukee Brewers.
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: If you want to go run line or money or
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 1: split the bet half and half either way, you want
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 1: to do it. Either way you want to slice it.
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: That's what I'm gonna do there. Brewers over team total.
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: I agree with that as well. Obviously, maybe I should
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: do that because that's a better way of doing it,
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I obviously agree with that. I mean, they
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: absolutely crush Fatty, They're good on the road, and even
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: with Cherio out of the lineup, those numbers are insane
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: Against Vetti. You usually don't see anything like that, So
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 1: I agree with that as well. Jmam, everybody, thanks for
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: hanging out. That's gonna do it for me today once again, Milwaukee,
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: however you want to do it, man, Milwaukee Brewers run
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: line money line split bet. That's the play for me today.
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: Learn to tone on Twitter for me, learn it Tone
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: on Instagram or I post these plays up on Instagram
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: as well. Better off dad. You can find me on
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 1: YouTube on all the audio platforms. So yeah, you know,
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 1: give me the like, the thumbs up, subscribe, comment interact
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: you guys have been doing. I appreciate it. Give me
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 1: a rating over on Apple and Spotify. Let's bump those
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: numbers up, man, pump those numbers up. And I have
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: a Ukulele cover project covered in Yuke, which is on YouTube,
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 1: and you can go to patreon dot com, slash learn
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 1: to toad and at the higher levels you get a
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: Spotify feed with my Yuke covers and maybe some other
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: Yuke stuff that I'll throw up there. Because I am
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: planning on releasing an original album. Hopefully I can get
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 1: it done by her birthday for Lolita Diaries. Planning on
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: releasing an album of all songs for her and about her.
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 1: Hopefully I can get it done in two more days, man,
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: because they still have about half of it left to
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 1: record and some of it still have to write, which
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 1: is maybe I'm up against it. Man, We'll see if
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: I can do it. I can write songs pretty quick though,
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: because I mostly write like pop songs. But we'll say
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: that is coming in the near future as well. And yeah,
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: I think that's it. Owing the highest level of the
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: Patreon you can request, I'll try to prioritize cover requests
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: as well, or whatever for you. That's gonna do it.
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: Thanks guys, Happy Monday. Let's kick off the week on
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: a good note and peace.