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Transcript

Felix Prehn - Last Chance: Why I’m Buying the Dip + Stock Market News 11 February 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream where I have pomegranate juice.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: And then I want to walk you through the following.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: We've got the trade tariffs, or the trade wars are back.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: We've got big things happening in the Middle East that are going to affect markets, oil prices and everything else.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: Inflation fears are back, which is why gold is nearing $3,000.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: We've got a fight between the ai control, or the ai titans really elon and sam at chair pals and yet act foolish.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: If you look at good, and that's really the key part.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: I want to break down for you so you understand the medium term story and you're not too distracted by all the noise and the media right now.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: That's really their intention.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: I think it's just to um, to uh, distract you.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna make myself a little bit smaller here so you can see my screen here.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: So we gotta understand each one of these items because it's it's important, and I'm gonna try and uh plug in something here so I can explain that a little bit better to you, as in my mouse pad.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Let's see if that works on our little travel set up here.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Does that work?
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Does that work?
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: House pet says oh yeah, there we are brilliant.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Okay, so the tariffs wars are back Europe.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: The apparatchiks in the European Union came back, said we will fight back against American tariffs on aluminium and this is going to escalate.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: Trump's also going to put tariffs, I believe, on European cars and a lot of other European goods and the EU says they're going to fight back on putting tariffs on that and he's going to win that war.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but it's going to cause some volatility would be the polite way of putting that.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Now, kamada, I'm seeing popping up here quite a lot.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: I have the chart open.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: We'll talk about that in a second as well.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: I'm seeing popping up here quite a lot.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Okay, we'll touch on that.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: I have the chart open.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: We'll talk about that in a second as well.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: So there's this myth that tariffs cause inflation.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Now, they don't really cause inflation.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: They might cause a one-off increase in prices.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: If there isn't a domestic alternative, that's a similar price, definitely true, but after that it is no longer inflationary.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Increase in prices if there isn't a domestic alternative, that's a similar price, definitely true, but after that it is no longer inflationary.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: So it's not something that the Fed needs to get involved with, and that's what they've said.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: But do watch out for what Jerome Powell says today in front of Congress, where he will undoubtedly be asked about tariffs, and I think he might fudge the answer.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: That could be an interesting one.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: The second thing we've got going on is that Trump said Hamas, one of the largest hedge funds out there probably actually it wouldn't surprise me they have the power to move markets.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: They are to release all Israeli hostages by the weekend or all hell will break.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: To release all Israeli hostages by the weekend, all hell will break.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: So what does that then do?
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Well, that potentially drives oil prices up.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: It potentially drives freight costs up as the whole Red Sea conflict gets heated up again, and that again causes some market wobbles right, and potential inflation fears.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: So that could also be inflationary and that's why gold is doing absolutely insanely well.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: Now, I'm not a huge gold investor.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: I do have some gold, but not a great deal of it, and I'm always very cautious on trading the gold indices because I didn't fully understand it.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: One of my mentors is a former London Metal Exchange market maker, elliot.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Some of you guys know him if you're in some of our program.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: He's a genius on metals.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: That's usually who I ask.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: I haven't yet, because I always feel like it's quite speculative, but it's a reasonable expectation that gold might go a lot higher.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: A lot of the big investment banks are saying it's going to hit $3,000 plus.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: So a little bit of an overview, right.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: And then we get to Powell.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: And then we get to why we're actually bullish and what we actually do and what we're actually potentially buying today.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Now the AI control fight.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: Sam the charitable wants to basically change open AI to closed AI.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: It's meant to be an open source model and he wants to go from no profit to to catching right.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: He wants to make money.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: So he is going to buy OpenAI from the charity, because you can't just convert a charitable organization into a profitable one, a profit-making one.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: You have to do some funny business there and he's trying to underpay for this.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Now Elon, who has a lot of beef with Sam, has come in and says well, we'll buy OpenAI for about $100 billion.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: He doesn't actually want to buy OpenAI.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: He just wants to screw up this transition from non-profit to profit.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: And maybe he doesn't want to do that for the greater good.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: Maybe he just wants to do it because he hates Sam Altman.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: It's highly possible.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: One or the other, I don't really care that 30% more on building out more AI capabilities than expected.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: So the whole AI boom is very, very much alive and very, very, very young.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: That takes us to Jerome Powell, the money printer, who, as I said yesterday, will stop shredding money in June.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: When is he going to cut rates?
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: He's going to tell us that.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: He's going to say it's data-driven.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: So he's going to have one of these very long, like two-hour kind of testimonies where most politicians don't ask questions but just testify themselves.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: So am I going to watch it?
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: No, I'm not going to watch it.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: I'm going to read the summary of it tomorrow and go to sleep instead and enjoy myself.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: But there is some wobbliness today because Powell speaks and the wobbliness looks like this.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: It looks like this this is the pre-market right, not horrible.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, a lot of stuff's down 1% in terms of big tech.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: Tesla also down 1.2% again.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: But down 1% in terms of big tech.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: Tesla also down 1.2% again.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: But it's not a crash, it's just like one of these things.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: We tend to open green red, close green or the other way around.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: At the moment it's the market's a little bit volatile, a bit unsettled.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: So why the heck is Wall Street bullish then, and how do we actually figure out what to do with our money today?
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: And I saw some of the chat here of you guys earlier on.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Well, to start with, you've got thoughts about well, what stocks are you buying today?
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Please get yourself some rules.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: These rules inside the masterclass are based on what I learned from my mentors who've worked on Wall Street for decades, and for me they've been working insanely well.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: Not saying that this is therefore, I'm kind of saying it's the secret path to enlightenment as an investor.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: That's basically what I'm saying, and it's way simpler than you think.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: There are only three rules you need to learn and it'll only take you about 15 minutes.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: So go over there, watch the free masterclass.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: In fact, do it right now.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: I'll be way better used than than understanding what Wall Street is thinking right now.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: And Fox there, appreciate you putting the link in the in the chat.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: I'll can I pin that in that to the chat as well, because what we're all about here is education, education, education, because that's the only way you get better.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: That's the only way you get better right, and I do sometimes share some trades.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: I posted some yesterday.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: We can certainly talk about those, but the only way you make good decisions is if you actually have rules.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: Now this needs explaining.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: And the purple line, the S&P If you're familiar with the S&P, largest 500 companies in the United States.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: Purple line here, so that there is just the S&P 500.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: So what's the yellow line?
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: The yellow line is how bearish are people?
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: Well, we have a lot of bears.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: It's a scale.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: The higher it is, the more bears they are, which means people are worried about the market.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: They think it's going to collapse.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: So what happens when this indicator spikes?
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: I could do it here, for example, or here you see what happens to the S&P when it spikes.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: Get a purple color to match the S&P.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Well, after it spiked there, what did we do?
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: We went to the moon, we went to the moon and so on.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: So this is actually saying if everybody.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: This is counterintuitive, I get this, but if everybody out there is bearish, it means sentiment has bottomed, it's terrible, can't possibly get any worse and therefore very likely to get better.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: And that's a real thing.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: And that might sound a bit weird, but I've been saying that since the end of last week.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: I think people are max miserable on the market and that's a good thing.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: It's a very good thing, a huge opportunity.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: And then we also have our beloved hedge fund friends, and what do they do?
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: Well, they sell.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: When you and me buy, we're the exit liquidity.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: So, basically, what they do is they try to go against the market.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: They try to sell at the top and they try to buy at the bottom.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: So, as we have had a very nice run up, they've been selling a lot, like really a lot.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: You can see them here, hello pen too much to color that how much they're in the market.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: They've sold a huge amount, and the last time we were lower was in September.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: And what happened in September November I think it was they were max bearish, sold off everything and we bounced off.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: You get these examples again and again and again over time.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Again, once these guys sell a lot, what are they going to do?
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: Well, they're going to start looking for bargains.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: They'll try to pick them up again and they want to miss out on the rally because they can't afford to.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: For me, fundamentally, wall Street is positioning itself to be very, very bullish.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: We just have this early Trump wobble period to get over.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: He's just kicking off everything.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: People are not used to that level of activity and one way you can track.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: That is a pretty good indicator for that, and it's simply here's Kamada, which is down a little bit today actually.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: But it's the VIX, it's the fear index and, as some of you guys were mentioning that, I actually sent out a document that I was only intending for the masterclass on the weekend and I sent it out to all of you guys by email yesterday, so you can read that and it's a little elevated 60, not super high, but it's a little elevated and there was a beautiful way to trade that and make money out of that.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: And that's what we intend to do and continue to do, and I think we're going to make quite a bit of money out of that.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: What's what VIX trade is doing at the moment?
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: At the moment it's up just a little bit up, like $800 or something like that, which is still 120%, but potentially we might make a couple of grand out of this, two, three or something like that, which is pretty good.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: So we look out for these kind of setups.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: So I like it when the market wobbles, because I make money, and that's why it's important to understand that.