Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / P&L: Putin Wants the U.S. Election to Go Wrong, Greeley Says

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P&L: Putin Wants the U.S. Election to Go Wrong, Greeley Says · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg pim L Podcast. I'm pim Fox.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for
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  Speaker 1: you and your money, whether you at the grocery store
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  Speaker 1: or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg p L Podcast
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  Speaker 1: on iTunes, SoundCloud and at Bloomberg dot com. His popularity
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: is peaking. Mark Niquette, politics and National Government reporter for
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg News, joins us along with our colleague Economics and
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: well it's you know, he covers the election. He can
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: now go home and rest for after six hundred days
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: of covering, I would say his relevance is peaking. Hello.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: Thank you, Brendan Greeley, Economic and Politics reporter. Thank you
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: gentlemen for being here. Thank you Mark Niquette boy, thank
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: you for thanking anything past crowd. Um. Brendon, I understand
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: that you have been dialing around the world, emailing with
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: our colleagues across a hundred forty countries. Tell us a
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: little bit about the standout countries and their reaction or
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: their thoughts having to do with the U S. Presidential election. Well,
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: you know, there were two things for me that emerged. Um.
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  Speaker 1: One is that in some ways what Russia and China
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: and I hate to put them in one big bucket,
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: but they want some of the same things from this election.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: What they want has already happened, right, So we would
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: suspect perhaps that Russia wants Trump to win. And we
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: know what came out of our bureau there as they said, well,
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: what Trump really wants, right, because if Hillary wins and
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: he can still portray Hillary is a cold warrior, it
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: helps him in his you know, domestic elections coming up.
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  Speaker 1: You mean Vladimir Putin? Kay, sorry, thank you, um, but
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: you know what he what Vladimir Putin really wants is
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: for our election process to look bad, for our you know,
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: for for things to look like they don't work for
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: it till you know. So this he the Russians believe
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  Speaker 1: that we hold ourselves out to be this paragon of democracy,
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  Speaker 1: and if it can, if it can be a bad, messy,
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  Speaker 1: ugly process with lots of you know, contested votes and
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump failing to concede, then that's great for them
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: because what they really want is to know what is
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: to have proved what they know in their heart of hearts,
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: which is that we're just as bad as they are. Well,
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: hold on a second. That brings me to Mark Niquett,
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: who absolutely, in my book, has not piqud. He is
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: just beginning to take off. Mark, is there any indication
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: that what Vladimir Putin wants is happening? Well, if you
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: believe the polls and some of the early voting results
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: we've seen so far, it's it's not looking good for
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin. I mean it looks like, you know the words,
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: things are going smoothly. Yeah, I mean we we don't
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: have sort of reports of mass chaos or hacking yet
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: at the polls. I mean it's it's early. Obviously we're
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: just starting voting in some places. Um, but it does
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: seem like the election is set up to you know,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: have an advantage going in with with Hillary Clinton. Um,
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  Speaker 1: you know, particular in these key battleground states. And what
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: we'll be watching for tonight is, you know, what where
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: does Donald Trump break through? I mean, is he able
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  Speaker 1: to sort of run the table, get these key battleground
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  Speaker 1: states he needs and then pick off some of the
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: blue states that he's been campaigning it in the final
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  Speaker 1: hours here, can we just go continue around the world
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  Speaker 1: please because I I mean, I'd love to put Russia
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  Speaker 1: and China together. We got that, all right, What about
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  Speaker 1: some of our allies? What about Japan? Yeah, you know,
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: we we were thinking about a change election here, you know, Japan.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: It was an interesting case. I talked to Chris on
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: stay out there. He's our he's our our head of
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: economic coverage for Asia, and he said, you know, traditionally
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: the Japanese have liked Republican presidents better. They're a little uh,
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  Speaker 1: you know, Bill Clinton slapped tariffs on Japanese luxury cars, right,
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: so this is you know, these these relationships go way back,
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  Speaker 1: and Republicans have tended to be more hawkish on you know,
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  Speaker 1: protection for Japan, the odd vomiting at a Japanese state
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  Speaker 1: dinner notwithstanding. Um, but we all remember this, right, George H. W. Bush,
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: I knew you were gonna do. Say you knew, I knew,
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: we all knew. But however, this time, right that the
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  Speaker 1: fact that he's a Republican is almost irrelevant. And they're
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  Speaker 1: really worried about security, and for a lot of these nations, um,
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  Speaker 1: security is more important than trade. We've been talking about
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  Speaker 1: trade in this election Australia. You're a student of history, Phimp.
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  Speaker 1: There understanding of the American security arrangement with Australia goes
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  Speaker 1: back before the Cold War. They're still grateful for services
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  Speaker 1: rendered during World War Two and they are a gas
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: that this might be upended. Well, and talking about security
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  Speaker 1: in another way, Mark, I want to get a sense
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  Speaker 1: from you, how is the security or how substantial has
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: it been increased with respect to elections. I know that
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  Speaker 1: the Department of Justice sent some representatives to certain polling sites.
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  Speaker 1: Have there been any scuffles, Have there been any issues? Uh?
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  Speaker 1: Is there any sign that, uh that anything is being
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  Speaker 1: breached or anything is a problem. Yeah, not so far.
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  Speaker 1: And again you know, knock on wood what you know,
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  Speaker 1: it's early yet. We'll see what happens the rest of
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: the day. But you know, there was an intensive effort,
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  Speaker 1: you know, when we got some indications of Russian hacking,
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  Speaker 1: you know, um of the d n C and you
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  Speaker 1: know even the Clinton campaign that the election systems might
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  Speaker 1: be vulnerable. So there was a considered effort in these
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: states to um, you know secure if nothing else, they're
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  Speaker 1: voter registration systems. You know, I don't think we have
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  Speaker 1: to worry so much about the the voting machines per se.
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  Speaker 1: We have a decentralized system. It would be hard to
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  Speaker 1: hack sort of the entire country that way. Um, But
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  Speaker 1: there has been an effort and states and hopefully it's
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  Speaker 1: been you know, there's been enough preparation to make sure
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  Speaker 1: that any attempts, you know, aren't successful. What about vote suppression, UM,
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  Speaker 1: I know that's a loaded term, but you know, we
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: already have evidence that early voting for African Americans in uh,
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: in North Carolina was down close to nine They've really
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  Speaker 1: changed the laws there in the last two years. So
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  Speaker 1: do we have any sense that there's frustration long lines?
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  Speaker 1: Uh not. And we're not talking about the the actual
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  Speaker 1: machines of voting, but the you know, the the laws
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  Speaker 1: that that that opened the window to vote. Yeah, I know,
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: there's already been frustration along the lines. Like you said,
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  Speaker 1: in North Carolina in particular, they changed you know, the
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  Speaker 1: voting machinery so that there were fewer early voting sites
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  Speaker 1: the first week of voting, in some cases only one
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  Speaker 1: site for an entire county, when in they were sixteen,
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  Speaker 1: So you you had less opportunities for sure for African
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  Speaker 1: American and urban voters to vote in North Carolina and
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: other things like that happening around the country. And you
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: have seen lines today. And the big question going in
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: to this election was how much of the vote was
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  Speaker 1: sort of shifted from election day to early voting. Believe
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  Speaker 1: it or not, we've had already more early votes cast
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  Speaker 1: for this election than we had entire votes cast in
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  Speaker 1: twelve so we've seen a lot of that vote for sure,
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  Speaker 1: something that's been moved up. The question is how much
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: has it sort of increased the vote and what kind
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: of pressure do we see on election on polling places today.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Mark di Quette, thank you so much for joining us.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Brendan Greeley, thank you as well. Bonds, bonds and more bonds.
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  Speaker 1: What's a person to do? Well? One thing is to
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: ask Mark Grant. He is the chief fixed income strategist
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: at Hilltop Securities and he joins us now. Mark Grant,
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: always a pleasure go ahead tell us your view of
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: what investment opportunities there may be with fixed income given
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: to presidential scenario outcomes. I'm always a pleasure to be
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: on with you, my friend. Um See, the fixed income
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: market to me is less clear than the equity market.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: At the moment, I think that if we do erect
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump, it will be a positive for the equity
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: market because he wants to cut corporate taxes. I don't
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: think individual taxes will move, and I think that will
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: be a positive for the markets. If MS Clinton wins
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: this election, I think it will be a negative for
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: the equity markets because uh, she clearly wants to raise
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: personal taxes and corporate taxes won't be lowered in terms
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: of bonds. To address your questions specifically, Pim, we don't
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  Speaker 1: know what the feed is going to do. They're talking
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: about raising rates possibly, which is I think the main
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: reason we've seen the backup and yields here. But we've
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: got the European Central Bank and the Japanese Central Bank
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: that are also affecting the markets. So we've come off below.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: But I think the picture for bonds at the moment
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: is very murky. Mark. You know, we were talking earlier
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: about inflation and how uh some people, including Alan Greenspan,
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: is coming out and saying inflation is taking up in
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: the US and we'll continue to accelerate. What's your view.
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  Speaker 1: I don't agree with Mr Greenspan with all respect. I
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: think inflation is very muted, and that I have no
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: expectations for it to affect the markets at least for
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: the next six months or a year. So given that
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: thirty year US bonds, where do you expect yields to
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  Speaker 1: go from here? As I said earlier, I wish I
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: can give you a better answer, a more specific answer.
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  Speaker 1: I think it's very murky. There's talk that the ECB
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: may be slowing down, that the Japanese are rethinking and
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: maybe slowing down. There's talk to the FED raising rates
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: in December, which I think is likely, though what that's
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: going to do to the longer into the curve is unclear.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: But basically I think we're kind of in a range
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: here under two uh and if the Fed doesn't do anything,
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: then I think we go back down break through the
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: support resistance slide, which is a one six ten right right,
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  Speaker 1: So just what are the two scenarios here? Let's say
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: Clinton gets in Miss Clinton gets elected president, where do
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: you see longer term bond yields going? And then vice
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: versa with with Mr Trump. Well, if she gets If
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: MS Clinton gets in, we're probably looking at somewhat higher
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: yields only because she wants to increase taxes, pay for
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: universities for free. She has a tremendous amount of big
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: government spending as part of her policy statements, and consequently,
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: I think we would have somewhat higher yields. If Donald
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Trump is elected, he also has a lot of infrastructure
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: UH spending as part of his package, but he wants
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: to lower corporate taxes the cent, which I think would
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: be a boon for the market, and we would probably
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: have somewhat lower yields. Mark Grant, I wonder if you
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: could comment on bond liquidity, and maybe it's a time
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: to reflect on the last four years, whether you've seen
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: big changes in the bond market compared to four years ago.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: We've seen huge changes in liquidity the because of all
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: the Dodd Frank rules, the banks have to carry much
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: more capital, which means that their portfolio of the bonds,
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: and also the big banks that are dealing in the
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: treasury market or in corporate bonds or municipal bonds have
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: sizeably less portfolios. So a lot of the larger institutions,
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: money managers and insurance companies are having some difficulties moving
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: their positions because of this. Mark, what's your What's your
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: biggest contrarian call right now, the Trump wins the elections,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: do you still stand by that? I still stand by it.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: I think I think people in America are voting against
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: and not for, and I think that there's a lot
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: of anger in the electorate for all kinds of reasons.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: And I think at the end of the day, I
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: don't know. It's just a feeling I have. It's a
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: deduction based upon this that I think there's gonna be
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: a big surprise and Trump is going to win the election.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: You spend time speaking with overseas investors, is their perspective
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: about the outcome of the election. It's a good question.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Without any doubt. The vast majority of foreign institutions are
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: hoping that Ms Clinton gets elected and that we have
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: a continuation of the Obama policies. I mean, ultimately, pim
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton represents the ultimate insider and Donald Trump Trump
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: represents the ultimate outsider, and most foreign institutions want the
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: status quo to continue. Now, what that status quo mean?
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: That rates in Europe stay lower than rates in the
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: United States. Does that make sense to you, Well, it
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: only makes sense when you consider what the ECB, the
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: European Central Bank is doing that. It makes every bit
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: of sense. They're out there buying a tremendous amount of
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: not only sovereign debt, but corporate debt. And in Japan
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: the central bank is not only buying sovereign debt corporate debt,
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: but they're also buying equities. So you're monetizing the debt
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: in a substantial portion of the world, which is why
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: yields in Asia, yields in Europe are so much lower
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: than yields in the United States. Mark what's the big
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: tail risk right now the markets? Well, I think Donald
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: Trump represents the tail risk because no one will quite
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: know what to do with it. So I would say
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: that his election is the biggest tail risk that exists
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: right now. The second biggest would be if the ECB
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: in the Japanese Central Bank stopped the intervention, stopped the
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: quantitative easing, and then we would also see higher yields.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: What's what's the bet that you have the most conviction
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: and what's the call. The call that I have the
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: most conviction is that, uh, I guess it would be
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: having to do with the election. I just I feel
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: that Donald Trump is going to get elected. I'm not
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: saying I'm for him, but I think that again, as
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: I said earlier, there's so much anger in this country
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: about the way the government is being run. People are
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: going to vote in a New York fashion at the
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: Yankee Stadium and the bleachers to throw the bumbs out. Margaret,
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Mark gret chief
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: fixed income strategist at Hilltop Security, is taking a look
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: at bonds and the murky picture out there for yields
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: given the current backdrop. I want to put knowledge to
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: work in the real estate industry, particularly whether or not
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: we are in a real estate downturn and how bad
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: it will be if so. I want to bring in
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: j Rawlins, thank you so much for joining us, co
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: founder of commercial really state firm j c R Capital.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: So are we in the middle of a real estate
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: downturn right now? Uh? The answer that is no, We're
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: not in the middle of a real estate downturn. We
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: are in the top of what in most markets would
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: be described as the top of the bubble, and that
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: bubble will slowly deflate over the next two to four years.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: But you shouldn't call it a downturn. Jay Rollins, tell
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: people a little bit about the j c R Capital
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: based in Denver, just so they have an understanding of
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: your perspective. Sure. J CR Capital is a commercial real
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: estate finance company. We're based in Denver, Colorado. We focus
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: on middle market commercial real estate transactions. So we finance
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: multi family, industrial office uh land condos, and multi family
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: around the country. We see transactions from coast to coast,
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: so we have a pretty good uh finger on the
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: pulse of what's going on in the commercial real estate
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: mark where is sorry, where is it strong, and where
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: is it We can you characterize the markets force geographically? Oh,
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: it's certainly stronger in the coastal cities what we call
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: him the glamour cities. Like like you're in New York,
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: so you're part of the glamour crew. But that would
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: be New York, that would be uh, New York, l A,
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: San Francisco, Boston, Washington. Those markets are a little bit
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: insulated from my prior comments, because foreign money is coming
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: into those markets and propping up real estate. Still, well,
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: if you have if you're in Japan and you're getting
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: a negative two on your tenure, uh, you don't mind
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: getting a four percent cap rate on a building. So
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: those markets will continue to be supported by foreign money.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: But I think the smart money and the interesting play
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: is away from those glamours that those are markets like
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: um Phoenix, Las Vegas, Houston, Dallas, Tampa. Well, hold on
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: a second, because you were just saying that we're at
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: the top of the bubble and that there might be
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a deflation coming in values. Where
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: where is a deflation going to going to happen? If
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: you think that the glamorous cities are are at a
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: more resilient spot, So that's going to happen in the
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: markets I just mentioned in the Phoenix is in uh Denver,
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: in um Las Vegas, in Houston, in Dallas, And what
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: you're gonna see is a slow decline in values that
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: are not going to be driven by necessarily market fundamentals.
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: It's a it's a little bit more detailed than that.
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: It's going to be driven by the regulated capital exiting
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: the business, the non regulated capital coming into the business,
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: which is more expensive money. And what the people thing
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: that people are not talking about is you're gonna see
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: a flattening of top line rents. In the last seven years,
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: everyone's made money in this business by increasing rents, but
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: incomes have not increased as much, so you're going to
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: see a flattening of revenues and increase in the capital structure.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: Can you just talk a little bit about Dodd Frank
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: legislation and how that affected the real estate lending business. Sure,
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: Dodd Frank has worked and um to the chagrin of
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: the CNBS industry commercial mortgage backed securities. And the whole
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: purpose is Dot Frank was to take UM regulated money,
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: the money that you and I back from the banks,
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: and take them out of the risk game and put
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: in nonregulated money into that game. And that's exactly what happened,
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: and you're seeing the exact result in the c NBS market.
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: The CNBS market is a small shell of its former
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: self and will continue to be because of the Dodd
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: Frank regulation. So there's a lot of whining on Wall
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: Street about about it, but Main Street has been protected
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: by Dodd Frank. So j if you do expect a
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: decrease in prices in places like Phoenix and Denver, when
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: do you buy well in the middle market, it's interesting,
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: we're buying all the time. And the other thing that
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: people don't talk about in the middle market where we
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: where we play, which we describe as assets that are
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: fifty million dollars or less. The story that no one's reporting,
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: but you'll hear it here first on Bloomberg Radio is
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: the changing demographic of the ownership base of those markets.
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: Those owners of those assets are non institutions. They are
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: individuals and partnerships of individuals. These people tend to be
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: between the ages of fifty and seventy five. They are
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: exiting the business, and when they exit the business they
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: through death, divorce, health issues. That creates an opportunity to
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: come in and buy. And it may not be at
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: the top of the market, it may not be through
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: a marketing um sales, but that is the opportunity. Thank
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: you very Jay Rowins. I hope you will spend more
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: time with us in the future, Managing principal co founder
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: j c R Capital based in Denver. Drugs and money,
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: that's what we're going to talk right now. While everyone's
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: focusing on the US presidential election. In California, there's a proposition,
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: uh that's on the ballot to make marijuana legal. I
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: want to bring in Adam Berman, co founder and CEO
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: of Medmen, a firm that invests in the marijuana industry. Adam,
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: thank you for being with us, Thanks for having me.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: So do you think this is going to pass in California?
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: So one of those things I don't want to say
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: too much and then people don't go vote. But I
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: don't think we have that kind of power. So yeah,
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: I do think that. Uh, I think we'll have success
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: with top sixty four today. Obviously, until it's done, it's
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: not done. There's still a lot of people working very hard. Uh,
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: this is not a standard day for us. We are
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: running around like crazy. But um, everything indicates that that
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: it will pass. Adam, tell us about the money involved
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: in the industry if the ballot initiative is successful, and
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: then can you give us an example of something that
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: med men has done so we get the connection with
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: what it is you're doing in the industry. Sure, absolutely, Well,
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: you know, I think if you're going to follow the money, um,
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: you know, tomorrow or starting tomorrow, I think. I think
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: California is really a watershed moment for everything that a
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: lot of people have worked their entire lives to create,
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: as far as an opportunity goes from a commercial perspective
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: in regards to the industry. UM. With California going, you've
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: got a newly created market and it's worth an access
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: projection of eight billion dollars a year UM. And with that,
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: you know, there's no longer ignoring the reality of this industry.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: And I think, you know, if you're gonna again follow
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: the money, I think that you'll see participation UM start
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: to happen and you'll see capital formation, you know, around
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: the space like we've never seen with velocity that you know,
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: we could never never have anticipated, UM. You know six
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: months ago, twelve months ago, even three weeks ago, right, UM,
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: But you were in a position now where everybody's paying attention.
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: You know, these discussions are happening. You've got real capital
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: that's been sitting on the sidelines, and with California going
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: UM and that type of opportunity, that that capital can't
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: sit on the sidelines anymore. So I think you'll see
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: a flood of capital into the space UM on the
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: heels of hopefully California passing as well as I we
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: we're talking about there are five states that are voting
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: to legalized recreational marijuana. So your firm Adman was created
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: in two thousand and seven and is based in Los Angeles,
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: has helped also more than one hundred businesses enter the
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: legal marijuana market. What kind of businesses are these? Well,
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: you know the answer that question. And then you know,
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: pim second part of this question. I mean what we
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: do from the capital side in our private equity fund is,
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: you know, we invest directly into the space in the
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: universe that is growing, manufacturing, and selling legal cannabis. So
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: we invest directly in the real estate side. Um, we
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: in asked all the way up to the to the
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: business on top. So if you're gonna talk about California
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: and you know the types of opportunities that are presenting
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: themselves today and then on the heels of hopefully passing
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: Prop sixt before you know, um or investing in in
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: in zoned real estate that is zoned for marijuana. Um,
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: you know, the business on top of that piece of
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: real estate when recreational passes, is you know that much
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: more valuable willing to pay that much more of a
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: premium to sit on that plot of land that's entitled
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: for a marijuana business. So, just as a quick example
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: as to what happens in the kind of consequences of
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: recreational passing um to a company like ours or fun
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: like ours that's putting dollars to work in the space.
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: I guess that would be an example. Now, Adam, the
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: number of states, nine states are going to have a
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: marijuana related ballot measures. They're on the ballot today. Is
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: there a state other than California that you believe investors
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: ought to be paying attention to as perhaps big players.
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: They're all going to go after the big market. But
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: is their business opportunity in some of the other states?
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: Where's the best place? Well, I think there's business opportunities everywhere.
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: I don't. I don't select one state over another. I
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: think the opportunities just differ, differ on a state by
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: state basis. And furthermore, for the investors, you know, opportunities
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: differ based you know, on an investor to investor basis, right, So,
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: you know, retail investors, I think tomorrow we're going to
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: take advantage of, you know, uh stock opportunities, you know,
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: buying into companies that are publicly traded, that are real
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: viable companies that are creating lines of there. But it's difficult.
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: But I gotta say it's difficult to find them in
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: the fine print. It's not difficult to find the name
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: cannabis or marijuana in the name of a company. Sure, right,
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: But I but I think that kind of information comes
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: to the service as this industry becomes you know, more
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: publicly uh, you know, promoted and more publicly kind of
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: you know, palatable if you will. So, you know, I
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: think all that change. I think it depends on the
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: investor and depends on the mandate. If you're a retail
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: investor and you're buying stocks and as a tomorrow you
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: decided to take a look at Scott's Miracle Grow because
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: they decided to put half a billion dollars into cannabis,
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: then you do that. If you are you know, a
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: fund like ours, you know, we have now more more
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: access to deploy more capital and two more markets as
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: of tomorrow. Um. You know, if you're a high net
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: worth individual and you happen to live somewhere you know
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: in the Northeast and Massachusetts you know passes recreational marijuana,
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: there'll be opportunities there. Whether you're investing directly into the
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: space in one of the license holders that's raising capital,
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: maybe you're making a real estate play there. Um, you know,
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: there's or maybe you know, just providing debt or alone.
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: So there are there there's you know, this is a
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: really I say this all the time. This is a
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: real industry. An I'm gonna check in with you as
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: we get the results of the ballot initiatives and we'll
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: we'll follow up with Adam Bierman. He is the co
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: founder and the chief executive of med Men. They're based
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: in Los Angeles. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg P and
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: L podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at iTunes, SoundCloud,
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm pim Fox. I'm
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: out there on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm out there
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: on Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's one before the podcast.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: You can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio.