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The Biggest Players Are Buying the Dip… Should You? | Bitcoin Simply · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  Bitcoin is up 2% year to date and only 6% over the past year,
• 0:04
  with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ up 14% and 18% respectively.
• 0:09
  You're probably wondering, is the Bitcoin bull market over?
• 0:11
  Is the four year cycle dead? Where does Bitcoin go from here?
• 0:15
  Hello. You think Bitcoin goes in the
• 0:16
  cycle right here? If it goes any lower, where does
• 0:19
  it go? I.
• 0:19
  Think it's pretty stable where it is right now.
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  I mean, most of the liquidation selling is out of the system.
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  I think we should rally from here, all right.
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  We shouldn't expect anything different from Sailor at this
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  point, but he's not the only billionaire signaling that this
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  bear market that we're in right now is overblown.
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  How about Warren Buffett, who just made an investment decision
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  that would have Charlie Munger rolling in his grave?
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  What about the largest university endowment in the
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  world backing up the truck? What about the greatest Wall
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  Street investor of all time signaling this pessimism has
• 0:46
  gone too far? Will Bitcoin continue to draw
• 0:49
  down? Maybe.
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  But there's people a lot smarter than me who think that this is a
• 0:52
  good risk reward opportunity to get into this asset class.
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  We're going to cover the latest moves by the big money.
• 0:58
  This is Dante Coke with Bitcoin. Simply, let's go.
• 1:04
  Michael Saylor is here, strategy founder and executive Chairman.
• 1:07
  Good morning to you. What do you think 150 by the end
• 1:12
  of the year? What do you think is happening
• 1:13
  here? You know, I think we all want to
• 1:17
  go to the moon, but if you want to ride the rocket, you got to
• 1:20
  be prepared to pull the GS. Over five years, bitcoins had
• 1:24
  like 6 brutal drawdowns. If you roll the clock back 13
• 1:29
  months, we were sitting around 68,000.
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  And then after the Trump election, we had this, this
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  incredible rally from 68 to 106,000 in five weeks.
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  If you go back 14 months, we are about 55,000.
• 1:44
  And so if you'd said we're going to go from 55,000 to 94,000 and
• 1:48
  14 months, that would have exceeded any reasonable
• 1:50
  investors expectations. Over five years, Bitcoins up
• 1:54
  about 50% a year on average for the five years.
• 1:58
  Gold and S&P are studying the cost capital to 14%.
• 2:02
  My company's strategies up 71%, equivalent to NVIDIA.
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  There's no other stock in the S&P that's done any better.
• 2:11
  So I think the volatility comes with the territory.
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  If you're going to be a Bitcoin investor, you need a four year
• 2:20
  time horizon and you need to be prepared to handle the
• 2:23
  volatility in this market. So when you when you look at the
• 2:26
  price right now and then I will talk about the implications for
• 2:28
  strategy. But when when you look at the
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  price right now, what is the upside at this moment look like
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  to you? And what is the downside in this
• 2:36
  moment look like to you? You know, I feel like we put in
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  a pretty strong base of support around here.
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  There's an incredible amount of of leverage coming out of the
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  system, a lot of liquidation, a lot of the OG holders were
• 2:50
  selling at the $100,000 level. And and so I'm, I'm fairly
• 2:55
  comfortable at this level. I would think that we'll build
• 2:58
  from this base and we'll rally from here.
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  If you want to ride the rocket, you got to be ready to pull the
• 3:03
  G's. And like little Wayne said, real
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  G's move in silence, like lasagna.
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  But right now, the real G's are making their moves out loud.
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  The biggest and best investors in the world are telling you
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  exactly what they believe right now about the trades that
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  they're making. How about billionaire #1 Ron
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  Baron? A future heuristic investor who
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  was one of the first people to back Elon Musk.
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  He bet on Elon when no one else would.
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  Here's what he has to say about the world and the economy where
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  we're at right now. So I think about the stock
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  market and the economy basically doubling every 10 or 12 years.
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  And that's what's happened for my entire lifetime.
• 3:35
  Everything double S every 10 or 12 years.
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  So what what has to happen is the value for money falls and
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  falls 4 or 5% a year. That's inflation, both 4 or 5% a
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  year and the economic growth has been about 2% a year.
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  So it's about 7% a year growth. And that means everything double
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  s in 10 years. The value of your money falls in
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  half every 15 years. So you got to make twice what
• 3:58
  you're making today in 15 years to stay even.
• 4:01
  And so stock market, you know, so bitcoins been amazing
• 4:05
  obviously and and gold. I have a few gold coins they've
• 4:12
  been buying. Mostly I bought in 2006.
• 4:15
  When you listen to this full interview, you're hearing him
• 4:18
  talking about nominal and real growth rates and that no one is
• 4:21
  actually getting richer when they factor in inflation in the
• 4:24
  growth of their paycheck. You have to make investments
• 4:26
  just to stay flat, and you have to make outsize investments in
• 4:29
  assets returning more than others in order to stay afloat.
• 4:32
  And in that conversation, he talks about Bitcoin, the future
• 4:35
  of money, gold, old money but sound money, and Tesla, the
• 4:39
  future of AI. And he's not the only one that's
• 4:42
  making big bets into this sort of futuristic investment thesis.
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  How about Berkshire Hathaway who just shocked everyone by buying
• 4:49
  17.8 million shares of Google and that's worth $4.3 billion.
• 4:53
  This is a company that's been anti tech for a long time.
• 4:56
  And don't tell me that Apple Investment was a tech company.
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  They're a hardware company that just started getting into
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  services more heavily. This is a massive signal to the
• 5:04
  market that this bear market is overblown.
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  Not to mention Berkshire Hathaway.
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  Well, Stanley Druckenmiller, you know, the guy that returned 30%
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  or more for over 20 years and not having a single down year.
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  Well, he thought that the pessimism in Amazon right now is
• 5:17
  overblown. Is this AI bubble overblown or
• 5:19
  is this just the beginning of a bull market run in techs, in
• 5:23
  equity stocks? And when those things run, what
• 5:26
  happens to Bitcoin? Next piece of massive news, The
• 5:28
  largest university endowment in the world, the Harvard
• 5:31
  University endowment. Well, they just doubled down on
• 5:34
  Bitcoin and buy double. Well, no, that's actually a
• 5:37
  triple. They invested $330 million into
• 5:41
  Bitcoin. And yet as they own more shares
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  of I bet than they do of Microsoft, something's going on
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  here that even university endowments are starting to
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  double down on this fake money, fraud money, Internet money
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  that's going to zero with no intrinsic value.
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  I mean, even people who made their money in real estate are
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  telling you exactly what money moves are making behind closed
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  doors. Like Ryan Sehart who sold more
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  real estate than almost anybody that you know or that anyone
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  knows, so that he made his real money when Bitcoin was at 3K and
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  16K when people are feeling bearish about Bitcoin like a
• 6:11
  time right now. And then I had a friend who is a
• 6:14
  big crypto trader who I always thought was crazy, and he
• 6:17
  convinced me to go heavy into Bitcoin when it was at 3000 and
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  then again when it was at 16,000.
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  And those will probably forever be my greatest investments of
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  all time. And those will just be held on a
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  cold wallet and I'll bury them in a treasure chest.
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  And Morgan Freeman will find. Them and it's not only the
• 6:37
  massive 4 catalyst for Bitcoin that these billionaires and
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  other folks are putting their signal in their stamp behind
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  this asset class. It's also the fact that the rest
• 6:44
  of the investment thesis for the market doesn't look so rosy
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  right now. Distressed dead investor and
• 6:48
  famed investment writer Howard Marks believes that the S&P 500
• 6:52
  is going to return -2% to plus 2% for the next decade.
• 6:56
  Saying that it's just too frothy.
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  The price to earnings ratio just does not make sense in light of
• 7:01
  the returns that people expect that they are going to get.
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  Listen to this clip right here. It's.
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  Reality in this case for you, reality is recognizing where
• 7:11
  things stand. And JP Morgan published the
• 7:17
  chart around the end of 24 and it was a scatter diagram showing
• 7:22
  over the years. If you bought the relationship
• 7:26
  between the S&P 500 at purchase and the return of the annualized
• 7:33
  return over the next 10 years. And it looked like this.
• 7:39
  On this axis we had return and on this axis we had PE ratio and
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  it was a, it was a negative correlation, which means the
• 7:49
  higher the PE ratio you pay, the lower the return you should
• 7:53
  expect. Makes perfect sense.
• 7:57
  And it showed there was a number here, 23 on the PE ratio axis.
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  And it showed which is what the PE ratio on the S&P was at the
• 8:07
  time. And it showed that historically,
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  if you bought the S&P when the PE ratio was 23 in every case,
• 8:20
  there were no exceptions. In every case, your annualized
• 8:24
  return over the next 10 years was between 2 and -2.
• 8:28
  Yeah, and when you double down, when investors like Ken
• 8:30
  Griffith, you know, the guy from Citadel who makes markets and
• 8:33
  front runs a lot of different trades, and he might be in
• 8:35
  trouble right now, but he's liquidating one of the 10
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  largest art collections in the world right now.
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  He's also liquidating one of the most valued pieces of real
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  estate on the planet, an $81,000,000 property.
• 8:46
  And you think that Bitcoin is a risky investment?
• 8:48
  Think again, Bitcoin is one of the assets that you can not only
• 8:51
  own and have the market appreciation from equity assets
• 8:55
  that we're talking about right now, but you also have the
• 8:57
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• 9:01
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• 9:04
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• 9:47
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  meeting with their team. Let's go back to this interview
• 10:06
  with Sailor and Cardone. The structural elements
• 10:08
  surrounding Bitcoin right now are incredibly bullish.
• 10:11
  Don't miss this fact. Hello.
• 10:13
  You think Bitcoin goes in the cycle right here?
• 10:16
  If it goes any lower, where does it go?
• 10:17
  I. Think it's pretty stable where
• 10:18
  it is right now. I mean most of the liquidation
• 10:21
  selling is out of the system. I think we should rally from
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  here. And then what do you think it
• 10:25
  in? I don't, but I don't believe in
• 10:26
  four year cycles anyway, I mean. I never believed in the.
• 10:29
  I think that that they might have had some credence in the
• 10:31
  1st 12 years, but I just right now the four year cycle is
• 10:36
  somehow based on the idea that 225 Bitcoin a day get taken out
• 10:40
  of the supply after the next halving.
• 10:43
  That's $22 million or $20 million of buying.
• 10:47
  Trust me, $20 million of buying. The market traded 100 billion
• 10:50
  yesterday. 20 million is is not even a third order issue at this
• 10:55
  point. Yeah, the dynamics in the market
• 10:59
  are much more that, you know, Jerome Powell thinks he wants to
• 11:01
  hold interest rates higher for longer, right.
• 11:03
  It's macroeconomics, it's political, it's structural.
• 11:08
  When, you know, when ibits derivatives market went from 10
• 11:11
  billion to 50 billion, it did that in four weeks.
• 11:14
  I mean, so, so those kind of things when JP Morgan's, you
• 11:18
  know, offers 10 or $100 billion of loans against Bitcoin, that
• 11:22
  will dwarf the four year cycle. It's the actions of the mega
• 11:28
  finance actors that are determining the future of
• 11:31
  Bitcoin right now and all the fundamentals are good.
• 11:35
  So my advice to anybody is first of all, if you make decisions
• 11:39
  with a 12 month or less time frame, you're a trader.
• 11:42
  If you're a trader, you know you're a trader.
• 11:44
  I have 0 advice for you. You know I'm not a trader.
• 11:47
  I'm not a good trader. I don't purport to be.
• 11:49
  I have 0 advice for you. On the other hand, if you're an
• 11:53
  entrepreneur or if you're an investor, you should have a time
• 11:57
  frame of four years or longer, 4 to 10 years.
• 12:02
  The structural flows from the large players in the
• 12:04
  institutions outstrip supply by a wide margin.
• 12:07
  We are witnessing an incredible shift in financial markets and
• 12:10
  one that's moving towards Bitcoin.
• 12:11
  The future of digital sound hard money assets.
• 12:14
  Long term hodlers are selling right now.
• 12:16
  But when you go to think about it, the long term hodlers aren't
• 12:19
  the people that have a ton of cash and a ton of capital.
• 12:22
  These were people that were buying Bitcoin at a cent a
• 12:25
  dollar, $2.00 three. You didn't have to be a mega
• 12:28
  billionaire in order to do that. You just had to be early and
• 12:31
  have conviction. Well, that doesn't mean that
• 12:32
  they're necessarily the people with tons of capital that are
• 12:35
  going to push the price from 100K to 200K.
• 12:37
  That's the big money coming into the asset class and that's what
• 12:40
  you need to be paying attention to.
• 12:42
  If you're not as smart as the smartest people in the world,
• 12:44
  that's OK. But you can also learn by what
• 12:46
  they're doing and watching what the billionaires are signaling
• 12:48
  right now. And they're signaling that the
• 12:50
  risk is much less than the reward that the bear market
• 12:54
  might be overblown in the bottom might in fact be in Bitcoin.
• 12:57
  What do you think? And if you think that you should
• 12:59
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• 13:49
  Today the bear market bottom might be in and smarter people
• 13:52
  are signaling that they're making big bets that they do
• 13:54
  believe that it's in. What do you think, Dante?
• 13:57
  Coke with Bitcoin? Simply happy stacking.