Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA DFS - FIGHT NIGHT | December 14, 2024 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

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MMA DFS - FIGHT NIGHT | December 14, 2024 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Fall systems, go clear lifting, what's going on?
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Everybody happy Thursday afternoon, Nate, what's going on? Many watch
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Friday Saturday. Appreciate every single one watching right from the top.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: All we ask like button, subscribe, button, hit it right away.
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: We really do appreciate it. The last part of the year,
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: Big Marley, I'm a made absolute grind almost every single week.
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: Absolutely love the grind though I'm in mad dfs unlike
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: any other I play, I don't play tennis, and it
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: is the only one I would say is as similar
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: in the fact of one D one stuff, but the
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: violence wise, no sport.
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: Like mmm the sweats. Always enjoy these shows.
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: This is the last one until I believe January eleventh
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: we come back and then January eighteenth, UFC three to eleven,
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: Big Boy pay per view, but get a month off.
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: Well needed. How you doing.
• 1:22
  Speaker 4: Today, I'm good?
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:24
  Speaker 4: The the month off like always sounds nice going into it.
• 1:29
  Speaker 4: The first week is always nice, and then after that
• 1:31
  Speaker 4: first week, I'm like, oh man, now I'm ready for
• 1:33
  Speaker 4: some fights to get back, and then you still gotta
• 1:35
  Speaker 4: wait two more weeks, so it's like a bitter sweet break.
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: But hopefully we go into it with a win. I
• 1:41
  Speaker 4: think it's a decent DFS card to do it with,
• 1:43
  Speaker 4: so hey, we can make it happen.
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: Yeah, No, I think it's a great DFS card.
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: Thirteen Fights are giving us Tampa, Florida, so it's a
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: live event seven pm Eastern, so another night fights.
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: Thirteen Fights is the main thing.
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: Looking at ownership, just broad Slate we had and again
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: again Big Marley does his first draft and then he
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: messes with it throughout the show. One fighter above fifty
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: percent I will not name who, and then the rest
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: below fifty percent, so relatively spread out, very spread out.
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: One main event, so one five rounder. We've been having
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: two code five rounders recently. I don't even think you
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: need to play the five rounder as well. As you see,
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: we are sharing the stone or proprietary tool over here
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: minus one ten for the fight to finish, so pretty
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: much a coin flip for to go to the decision.
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to be locking any fights personally in
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: twenty and below.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: I do have four.
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: Fades, couple underweight tags.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: Any broad Slate over review for you, Big Marley, Are
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: you locking any fights before we go fight by fight?
• 2:46
  Speaker 4: No, I don't think I will lock any fights. If
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: so be the main event, I'd be okay locking that one.
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: That makes sense. If I had to lack a fight,
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: that would be mine as well.
• 2:56
  Speaker 4: And then yeah, there's no real broad slate overview. I
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: think it's I think it's a pretty good card. There's
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: no spots I want to like really go all in
• 3:05
  Speaker 4: on other than that main event. There's no spots that
• 3:08
  Speaker 4: really stuck out as like, oh, this is an easy
• 3:10
  Speaker 4: fade for me. So I think it's a kind of
• 3:13
  Speaker 4: tough one, which hopefully is a good thing. Yeah.
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: No, I love what you say there, and I like weeks. Actually,
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: I want to throw this to you quick before you
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: go fight by fight. I know we got thirteen to
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: talk about. You change your strategy and you went heavy
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: on the five fifty five last week with it seemed
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: like a pretty tight core. Your bubbles are pretty close
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: to each other instead of I'm at meeting, you had
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: a great week. Congrats to you about five K. Do
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: you think you're gonna do that on this card?
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: And like men.
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: Uniques wise, because I agree with you, like I want
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: a lot of people in my pool. I'll probably raise
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: men Uniques and hope to get the right combo that way,
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: and I should be able to build a lot of
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: low duke teams with thirteen fights, like how are you
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: focusing this week?
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: Five to fifty five?
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: Again, No, not five to fifty five. I did that
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: because it was last pay per view. It was like
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: one hundred k up top in that and one hundred
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: cap top and the twenty five. So I wasn't really
• 4:04
  Speaker 4: liking my mm me early builds. But I started handbuilding
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: and I just kept landing on the same underdog. So
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: I just went with that like seven eight seven seven,
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: like the Luke hs Choi range, and I just liked
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: seven teams that I handbuilt, and I was like, you
• 4:23
  Speaker 4: know what, let's just do it. It's the end of
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: the year if I lose the governments on for you know,
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: a third of it, So I was like, let's just
• 4:30
  Speaker 4: let's make it happen. So I threw it in there.
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: Ended out working out well for me. And I'm sure
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: if I did one hundred and fifty lineups, I mean,
• 4:42
  Speaker 4: I honestly don't know how that would have went for
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: me because the people who were on the off of
• 4:45
  Speaker 4: my lineup I wouldn't have been heavy on.
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: So for that really no, I like it. I love it.
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: I love how you navigate each week. DJ talks about
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: it a lot too. That's probably something I need to
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: do a little more as mess around with that. I've
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: always just been MMB trying to get a lot of teams. Imma,
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: you just need one team to do it that way,
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: low dupes. But yeah, I absolutely love it and very
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: very sharp at the end of the year. The Countain
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: always does recommend a bit. If you are up a lot,
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: you know you're locking in money, don't go crazy. But
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: if you think there's an edge, you can push it
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: just a little bit harder. So go collect what's going on?
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: All right, let's talk some fights, Big Marley. We're gonna
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: go bottom to top first fight of the night. As
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: we can see on the Stone fight rankings from Big Marley,
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: two star does not like it. A lot ownership will
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: definitely not be here either. Woman's fight minus two thirty
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: five Josephine Knutsen plus two hundred Pierre Rodriguez plus three
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: twenty five for this fight to finish, we have both
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: Pierre Rodriguez and canuts And plus five to fifty inside
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: the distance dogger pass for me and this one I
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: mean both of them sing inside the distance prop at
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: plus five fifty big Boy price up here at eighty
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: eight hundred. That's an awful inside the distance price, or
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: prop for the price Buckley right here, main event just
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: a little bit higher Patrino, so you can see big
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: Marley likes a lot. No way, I'm getting the canuts
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: and with twenty of your less teams, I will play
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: some Rodriguez, mainly because just a live dog, and I
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: think live dogs are in like the lower tier seventy
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: five hundred below. I'll take seventy five. Will it be
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: on the winner, who knows, but i'll take wins down there.
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: I think Rodriguez is live. Also like to see three
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: point one to one takedowns.
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: Per you shure on me right after a three point one.
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: One too, that's insane, But I know I just went
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: on mute to people heard what I'm saying. Rodriguez has
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: a little wrestling upside I think too in this fight.
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: So I'll throw it to you.
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: Do you think you see both them on the stone
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: three point one one two takedowns?
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: Who do you think has the wrestling upside? How do
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: you see it going?
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: Yeah? I would think that Canuts and or Canuts and whatever.
• 6:49
  Speaker 4: Her name is the striker in this one, and really
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: I think that they're both strikers. Rodriguez to me seems
• 6:57
  Speaker 4: more like a boxer, but she will wrestling if it
• 7:01
  Speaker 4: works out for her matchup wise, So I think in
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: this matchup, she should be the one that is shooting
• 7:07
  Speaker 4: for takedowns. And I was thinking the same exact way
• 7:10
  Speaker 4: you were, like easy fade Canuts in at eighty eight hundred, Uh,
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: Rodriguez at seventy four hundred. I'm cool with some underdog shots.
• 7:17
  Speaker 4: She could probably get around ten x. Maybe she mixes
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: in a couple of takedowns, and I am still along
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: those lines. But then I was like, I opened the
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: game log for Knutson and she got like one hundred
• 7:27
  Speaker 4: and ten and ninety, and I'm like, ooh, that's not
• 7:29
  Speaker 4: that easy of a face.
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: Look at the opponents though, And that's true.
• 7:32
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I did. I thought about that. But then it's
• 7:34
  Speaker 4: also just so many like little punches on the ground
• 7:37
  Speaker 4: that you could really do against anybody if either one
• 7:39
  Speaker 4: of them are gonna look to wrestle.
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: So what percent would you put that at for canuts
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: and looking to wrestle?
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: Because that that's key, Like if you give me a
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: percent of like to wrestle, it's really like Sean or
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: we're gonna get to Sean Woodson.
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: Like you're talking strikes.
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: He can land one hundred and thirty significant strikes in
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: a decision still not even get close to the optimal.
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: Like if Canutson's on top, I definitely give advantage that way. So, yeah,
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: what are your thoughts.
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: I would think she's like not going to come in
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: here with a wrestling game plan at all. But if
• 8:08
  Speaker 4: maybe Rodriguez does come in with a wrestling heavy game
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: plan and Canutson just doesn't want to accept it, She's
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: all right, let me beat her to the punch. Maybe
• 8:16
  Speaker 4: that could change up things. Reversals could change up things. Also,
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: if she is the one being taken down, she could
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: still land a lot of those little shots and still
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: add it up. So it's just she wants it to
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: be in close contact for her to get those high
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: scores where I think she is best at range. She's
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: I think she's one of the better strikers than WMMA,
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: So I'd like to see her in a fifteen minute
• 8:40
  Speaker 4: range battle to be honest with you, but that wouldn't
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: be good for DraftKings. That's an easy fade right there.
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: But I just went from easy fade now. I'm not
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: going to x her out. We'll see where it goes,
• 8:50
  Speaker 4: because I do think she'll still be low owned. But yeah,
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: i'd still agree that Rodriguez is my preferred play.
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: All right, I'm gonna throw so Woodson, Lima canuts In
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: ranked those three.
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: I plan on being pretty low on all of them.
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: Actually, but oh, I asked, I don't That's why I asked.
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: Dang, that's a good question. I don't know. Honestly, if
• 9:15
  Speaker 4: I was making like ten lineups, i'd fade them all. Yeah,
• 9:19
  Speaker 4: I'm making one hundred and fifty.
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: Just say you're making twenty.
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: I won't get much of any of them in twenty either.
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: But like if I made one hundred and fifty, I
• 9:29
  Speaker 4: would think my ownership ends up. God, I don't know.
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: What do you think? I would say? Maybe Woodson? I
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: have no idea was mine.
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: Was Lima, Woodson canuts In. I don't like any of them,
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: Lima's or inside the distance props plus one ninety, Like
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: I'll throw cop in that same bucket.
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: Like I don't like any of.
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: These guys, and I guess we're kind of like talking
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: through the whole slave while going through this fight. But
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: at the end of the day, like Canuts and I
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: just ended up ranking last of them. But that's like
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: when if you read the Slave Plan and MMA. So
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: it's a lot of randomness, but I'm grouping them in
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: a tier where it's just like Woodson's your last, then
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: fade him in twenty entry and get like five percent them, Like,
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: I think those are the stans you're making twenty teams.
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: The more teams you play, you can get three percent
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: Canuts in three percent here. You might say why three percent,
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: and some argue, well, sometimes I've seen pros win getting
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: like a three percent of one player and it ends
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: up on the optimal. Now, I just tell myself, it's
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: a part of the portfolio. If you're building a lot
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: of teams. If you're building seven teams like Big Marley,
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: I'm hardly gonna play any of them. I'm probably not
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: gonna play any of them, then you have like you
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: can go that way.
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: So yeah, anything else you want to add before.
• 10:42
  Speaker 4: You get to the next five Yeah, now that I mean,
• 10:44
  Speaker 4: now that I think about it, if I was making
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: twenty teams. I wouldn't hate if I had none of
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: any of those those people, to be honest with you,
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: So that's kind of the way i'd go about it.
• 10:54
  Speaker 4: And then with one hundred and fifty, I'm also not
• 10:57
  Speaker 4: exing out any of them, so like, give me right
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: around ten percent of all of them, like maybe eight.
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: I'd even prefer a little bit more.
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I absolutely love it.
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: That's kind of some game theory, roster construction, how you
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: want to play MMA.
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: Maybe it is a week that I think about the
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: five point fifty five.
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: If I want to fade album, I still doubt it,
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: though I always go back to over reliable.
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: What's going on?
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: Mat really appreciate the words car me in here, dogs barking?
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: Maybe I would take that next fight talk about a
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: dog barkin No real dog though almost a coin flip.
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: We have Davy Grant taking on Ramon Tavars.
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: David Grant minus one twelve Tavaris minus one to eight
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: minus one thirty for this fight to finish, Davy Grant
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: plus two to twenty five inside the distance Tavars plus
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: two fifteen should be a slug fest. The problem is
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: minus one thirty to finish is good. Let's say it
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: goes the distance, though, which is plus one hundred. I
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: don't know if it's good even at these prices, Like
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: you still got to do something at eighty two hundred.
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: AK. I don't see really too much wrestling Davy Grant.
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: Maybe, I guess if you think he does, let me know,
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: because I would get more of him otherwise, Like, I'm
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: really mediocre about this fight. Both of them have knockout ability,
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: so maybe around the field, but I don't want too
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: too much of it because I don't really see the
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: upside of playing out on the match.
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: So tell me if you do.
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: No, I think it should mainly stay striking. I would
• 12:26
  Speaker 4: think that Grant should look for takedowns though, but he
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: is a lot older now, he's eight years older. I
• 12:34
  Speaker 4: think he's coming off a next surgery or something like that,
• 12:37
  Speaker 4: so neither one of those really go well for him,
• 12:39
  Speaker 4: especially grappling. But offensive grappling maybe wouldn't be so bad.
• 12:44
  Speaker 4: I mean, I guess it gets caught in a bad
• 12:45
  Speaker 4: guillotine that sucked for his neck. But I would imagine
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: Grant has the ground edge in this game, in this matchup,
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: and then I kind of like Tavares on the feed.
• 12:54
  Speaker 4: I think Tavares has more power in his punches, more
• 12:58
  Speaker 4: likely to get a knockout, probably a little faster at
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: this point too. But Grant was one of those guys
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: who I was never really high on, and then in
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: the last few years I feel like you really picked
• 13:08
  Speaker 4: it up kind of in his later fighting age, and
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: then just who knows what that next surgery is going
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: to do to him. This kind of one where I
• 13:18
  Speaker 4: would say, I prefer Tavar as if the two hundred
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: dollars doesn't matter. But I what I was just messing
• 13:25
  Speaker 4: around with a single lineup before we got on, and
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: my last spot had like eighty one hundred dollars left,
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: I think, so I was like, fuck, I'd be fine
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: with Grant in that spot. Then I don't need to
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: change the rest of my lineup up. Let me just
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: roll with Grant. So that's kind of how I'd go
• 13:40
  Speaker 4: about it. If I got the money, give me Tavars.
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: If I don't, I have Grant. I think Tavar is
• 13:45
  Speaker 4: more likely to break the slate with one hundred plus,
• 13:48
  Speaker 4: but I think Grant is more likely to score well
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: in a decision.
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: I agree with all those words, and I think my
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: pick's Grant, but I still might like Tavorrow's more because
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: of what you said, being two hundred more Right now,
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: he's a slight dog like it's a coin flip. Like
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: you said, if people land eighty one hundred, I don't
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: think anyone's really scared like going Grant over. I mean,
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: he's a favorite at the end of the day, so
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: I think for all those reasons the eighty two hundred
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: extra two hundred better inside the distance props slightly, but
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: I think he has more round one equity.
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: Let me check his round one prop versus Grants.
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: In my mind it's Tabar's plus five fifty grand plus
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: six twenty five, so nothing crazy and man a lot
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: of steam plus nine hundred Grant round one open down
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: the plus six twenty five. I like Grant's low kicks,
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: and I definitely agree. Like I was really high on
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: Jonathan Martinez. I still end I pick him almost every fight,
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: but when David Grant slept him, that really hurt the
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: bank account my thoughts on Martinez, but it really made
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: me like Davy Grant gianas he fought really well too,
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: Like I really like his low kicks when he goes
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: to him has definitely fought the better competition, but Tabar's
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: looks hard to knock out, so I agree. Like, if
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: someone's going down early, I think it's Grant f and
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: the one hundred plus.
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: Is like what you want a GPP?
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I guess I keep talking myself into Tavarus
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: even though I'm picking them to lose.
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: Any final thoughts before we get to the next fight.
• 15:10
  Speaker 4: Yeah, what would you put this one to? Five stars?
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: Write? How you have it three stars? Is that how
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: you have it? Three stars? Yep, that's exactly how I
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: have it.
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna play both of them because you can see
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: the path it's favored to finish.
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: It also is taking steam. The underhas it opened minus
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: one ten.
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: Now it's minus one thirty, So all that's good, But
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: the no wrestling upside is just what and like it
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: only be a minus one thirty is just what makes
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: us a little hesitating, Like is a round three knockout
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: good enough? I don't know, because you look in that range.
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: Billy Q fight. Billy Q fights are always fun. Marcos fight,
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I guess like Marcos fighter, this fight.
• 15:52
  Speaker 4: Marcos is my least favorite of the four, but Jana
• 15:56
  Speaker 4: is my favorite of the four.
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah, there you go, so that answers part of both ways.
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: But it's a very similar fight for sure.
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: I do think that Billy Cube fight will get the
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: most ownership in the mid tier though.
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: All right, let's keep it going. What's going on, Morse.
• 16:11
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• 16:13
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• 16:15
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• 16:18
  Speaker 2: going on. Not sure when Hooper Tamo's gonna take it down,
• 16:21
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• 16:24
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• 16:27
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• 16:36
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• 16:52
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• 16:55
  Speaker 2: percent off and again get in the discord. Next fight
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: on the card, Big Marley second biggest favorite and highest
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: price on the card, and Random Maverick taking on Jamie
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: Lynn Horth minus six hundred Maverick plus four twenty five
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: to four plus three hundred for this fight to finish,
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: Maverick plus three seventy five inside of this stance plus
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: eight hundred.
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: How do you see this fight going? How do you
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: like it for GIFs?
• 17:18
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I kind of think that it's maybe a toss up.
• 17:23
  Speaker 4: If it was a fifteen minute striking match, I'd probably
• 17:26
  Speaker 4: still give the edge to Maverick there, but we really
• 17:31
  Speaker 4: wouldn't want it either way if that's the case, and
• 17:34
  Speaker 4: Horth would be the preferred play if it was a
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: fifteen minute striking match. But Maverick her big edge. The
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: only reason she's minus six hundred because she's she's a
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: good wrestler, and if she's gonna look to wrestle in
• 17:43
  Speaker 4: this fight, I think she could win all three rounds
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: with one to two takedowns in each round. So I
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: do agree with her being the favorite, maybe not minus
• 17:51
  Speaker 4: six hundred type of favorite, but I do think she
• 17:54
  Speaker 4: should be like at least minus four hundred or so
• 17:57
  Speaker 4: I'd probably give her at least a two and a
• 17:59
  Speaker 4: half takedown prop. So I think she is playable, but
• 18:04
  Speaker 4: I would rather try and get my way up or
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: there's just places where I'm fine going down to. So
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: I just don't think I'm gonna get to much of her,
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: but she'll definitely be in my pool. Horth is what
• 18:15
  Speaker 4: I don't know what I'm gonna do with she I
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: think is playing more for a ten X type of score.
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: So I think the only way I really get to
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: Horth is if I like have to get to Horse
• 18:24
  Speaker 4: because she's sixty eight hundred and I just love the
• 18:26
  Speaker 4: rest of my lineup.
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not gonna play Horse plus four twenty five.
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: I don't like enough.
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: If Maverick can win on the feed, it's close like
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: we think it is. Maverick has a wrestling upside by far,
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: the clinch control stuff like that, and her best case
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: is like seventy five. I'm not playing Horse in twenty
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: and below. It also is part to do with like
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: I think Bruno Soul is very live. I think Dustin
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: Jacobi is very live. That's two big dogs right in
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: that same range. If I can beet like twelve percent
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: of them, fifteen percent of them, like any of the
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: horse ownership.
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: I just didn't naturally go to someone I actually think
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: can win. That's me.
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: If you think they both lose or almost every underdog loses,
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: then sprinkling in a little hoarse diversifying it a low
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: own play anyway, I think is a very fine way
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: to go Maverick, Like she's gonna be in my pool
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: because the wrestling upside, she's gonna be low owned. So
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: you can play your Chalckey lineups. But I'm with you,
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: like even Michael Johnson for way less. Give me Michael
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: Johnson any day right now over Maverick.
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: But it is mma.
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: You do see wrestling upside on the Maverick side, Yeah,
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: I mean plus three side me five inside the distance.
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: When did that come out to?
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: I think I wrote it up in the sleigh plan
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: twenty one percent, so like twenty one percent Maverick I
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: think is overweight, which does like make you wonder like
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: maybe that is a solid play, which is why I
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: think I'll cap it at fifteen to twenty percent and
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: be fine if I get there, be fine if I hardly.
• 19:49
  Speaker 4: Have anything, and I think I'm gonna move this down
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: to a two star, but yeah, I agree, I probably
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: better fight to target.
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: YEP.
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: Next fight another one that we didn't have much interest
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: in talking about Lima, and it's another two star Felipe
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: Lima minus two thirty five miles John's plus two hundred
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: plus one sixty for this fight to finish all the
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: finish equity on the Lima side plus one ninety John's
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: plus one or plus seven eighty. Excuse me, this fight
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: did an open plus one ninety five to finish now
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: plus one sixty, so that's worth noting. Throw to you,
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: how do you see this fight going two star DFS
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: or for fight rankings.
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: Doesn't seem like you have munch interest.
• 20:31
  Speaker 4: In another one where I just don't care for it
• 20:32
  Speaker 4: too much. I think Lima's pretty solid, I think is
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: decent everywhere, but eighty nine hundred dollars against another guy
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: who I think is pretty solid, more of a VET
• 20:42
  Speaker 4: who's fought better competition over the years. I just don't
• 20:46
  Speaker 4: really want to pay eighty nine hundred dollars. I think
• 20:48
  Speaker 4: Lima could win a decision and score in the sixties here,
• 20:53
  Speaker 4: and even a late finish probably doesn't put him at
• 20:57
  Speaker 4: at ten X. At eighty nine hundred dollars, so underweight
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: on the Lima side, and I'm not against fading him either,
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: especially if I'm handbuilding limited number of lineups. And then
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: John's I think he can win the striking if he
• 21:11
  Speaker 4: could just slow down the pace of Lima. And he's
• 21:15
  Speaker 4: got big, big power himself. But what Johns's best at
• 21:19
  Speaker 4: is wrestling. He's a wrestler, so I would like him
• 21:22
  Speaker 4: to go back to his wrestling roots. And I just
• 21:25
  Speaker 4: don't think he should be this big of a favor.
• 21:26
  Speaker 4: So the line talked me into a Johns pick, but
• 21:30
  Speaker 4: he's He's the same thing where he could win a
• 21:31
  Speaker 4: decision and score sixty points. We can handle that at
• 21:35
  Speaker 4: seventy three hundred dollars, I mean, we can't take it
• 21:37
  Speaker 4: at eighty nine hundred, though, So I'll keep John's in
• 21:40
  Speaker 4: the pool. He's not a guy that I love to target,
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: but seventy three hundred dollars for somebody that I'm picking
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: to win, I'd imagine I'll end up overweight.
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: I'm glad I threw it to you first.
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: I literally could not have said it any different any better.
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: So completely agree.
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: Johns would be my preferred play because of what you
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: said plus one ninety inside the distance though did, but
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: is what separated him above canuts In and why? Like
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: if I got ten percent fine plus one nine d power,
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: he brings some.
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: He's on the winner at real low ownership.
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: But still, if I'm only handbuilding a select few teams,
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: I'm not getting new hm that hat title. Hey, you
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: know what's funny, Morris is I don't even like Miller Light.
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: I think Miller Light's gross. But that's pretty cool. Coors
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: Light's so much better. Appreciate it though, all right, let's
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: keep it roll in. Next fight on the card, another
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: one I don't necessarily love, but I definitely have a
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: preferred side.
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: Sean Woodson Fernando Padilla.
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: We have Sean Woodson minus one fifty five, Padilla plus
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: one thirty five plus one seventy for this fight to finish,
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: Padilla plus two seventy five inside the distance Woodson plus
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: four forty. It's an easy, easy dogger pass for me.
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: In terms of dfs, it's tough for me to make
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: a pick woods in a good striker volume, Padia more
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: power like Woodson, maybe the minute winner. If someone gets hurt,
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: it's Woodson, though Padilla plus two seventy five inside the
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: distance one thousand cheaper great money line at plus one
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: thirty five for the price, and I think submission is
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: very sneaky in this one, and the books do agree
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: open plus one thousand now plus six hundred. I'm not
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: gonna be calling no dars for Luke or something like that,
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: but hey, I am gonna call Padilla by subn this one.
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: Not gonna give a method, but yeah, give me Padilla
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: for sure in DFS. I'm not saying go bet Padilla,
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: like I think he's a way better DFS play than
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: I do a bet because of his price. But I
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: guess any concern on him getting a little steam like
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: thirty five percent Padilla is a lot different than what
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: we have right now, which is twenty percent maybe like
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: meet in the middle, maybe twenty six percent Padilla, I
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: would still be fine with. So yeah, talk to talk
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: about this one.
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: You got mute.
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna raise it for sure, And I'm probably
• 23:57
  Speaker 4: even gonna go four star for the Padia side of this.
• 24:01
  Speaker 4: I think you talked me into that. It's just like
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: these guys are very similar to me, where they're both
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: high paced strikers. They don't look like they have a
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: lot of power behind their shots, so I'm not expecting
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: to see either one of them just get knocked out
• 24:13
  Speaker 4: with one punch. I would expect if either one of
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: them wrestles, that it's woods in. But I do think
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: Padilla's more likely to get a submission. But this could
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: be a fifteen minute, just fun striking match where they're
• 24:27
  Speaker 4: both striking at a high pace, so I don't hate
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: either side. I'll get a little bit of Woodson exposure maybe,
• 24:33
  Speaker 4: so I guess he's probably going back to that original question.
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: At the first I think I like Woodson a little
• 24:39
  Speaker 4: bit more than Knutsen and Lima. But at the same
• 24:43
  Speaker 4: time I agree that but he is probably the better
• 24:44
  Speaker 4: play in this one, especially for a thousand dollars less.
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: I really don't see too much of a difference in
• 24:50
  Speaker 4: their ceilings, but I think i've I'm a little bit
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: more oppressed with Woodson overall. He's fought the better competition,
• 24:56
  Speaker 4: so I picked him to win. Yeah, for a thousand bucks,
• 25:00
  Speaker 4: give me more Padilla for sure, I'll be underweight to Woodston,
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: overweight to Padilla.
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: Yep, that's exactly why I see it. Keep it roll
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: next fight. I'm very excited for this one. Joel Alvarez
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: minus four to fifty taking your taking Andrew Carr close
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: plus three fifty minus two ten for this fight to finish,
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: Alvarez minus one seventy Close plus six seventy five. Alvera
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: is one of my favorite fighters to watch in the UFC.
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: He reminds me a little Charles Olivera esque man. The
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: dude scrapplings next level. His strikings really coming together as
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: moy Thai. He's huge for the division. He's got some
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: hands on him anytime it hits the mat. I mean, yeah,
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: he's super dangerous. You would not know that though, and
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: you see zero takedowns. He doesn't shoot takedowns. He pulls guard,
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: he hurts his guys and follows him on the mat.
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: He literally doesn't shoot takedowns. I wish he did work
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: on his wrestling. Twenty one to three, I think it's
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: like seventeen submissions, four knockouts. Dude's a bad man. I
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: think he finishes your car close. I just don't know
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: whether it's knockout or submission. I will have no close.
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: I will definitely be playing some Alvarez talk to me.
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: I will say last thing fight open, minus one eighty
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: to finish, now minus two ten, always open, minus one
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: thirty five inside the distance, now minus one seventy. That
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: is what we what we call some steam dag Marley
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: take it away.
• 26:23
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I like Alvarez more in this unge because he's
• 26:27
  Speaker 4: our finisher. I think he's finished all of his wins.
• 26:30
  Speaker 4: I believe nasty on the ground, but it is crazy
• 26:34
  Speaker 4: that he doesn't wrestle. But he's dangerous on the feet too. Man,
• 26:37
  Speaker 4: he's really good on the feat, especially in the first
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: round when he comes out aggressive. But this man, this
• 26:43
  Speaker 4: is a tough matchup for this wide of a line
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: to be honest with, Like, if he doesn't get a takedown,
• 26:49
  Speaker 4: this is I can't justify that line at all. And
• 26:52
  Speaker 4: I would actually say, if he's not getting a takedown,
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: I'd probably pick Close to win the fight. I just
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: think Close will be the better minute winner in this
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: in the third rounds uh, just being the better overall striker.
• 27:04
  Speaker 4: Adding up lake cakes to slow Alvarez down, But there's
• 27:09
  Speaker 4: not gonna be a big ceiling that comes with that
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: unless he can just gas Alvarez and finish him late.
• 27:14
  Speaker 4: So I don't really love close. It's just that maybe
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: I won't get as much Alvarez for that reason, because
• 27:20
  Speaker 4: if Alvarez doesn't get a first or second round finish,
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: it's gonna be hard for him to be on that
• 27:24
  Speaker 4: optimal lineup. I like Calvarez, but maybe I end up
• 27:31
  Speaker 4: a little bit underweight because I do think he'll probably
• 27:33
  Speaker 4: end up getting getting steam here. So I'll play the
• 27:40
  Speaker 4: wow oh wait plus two twenty five? Yeah plus, but yeah,
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: I mean minus one seventy inside the distance pretty wild,
• 27:49
  Speaker 4: So yeah, he's got to get some steam here. But
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: maybe I'll be a little bit more underweight to the
• 27:55
  Speaker 4: fight than I thought I would. Originally, I thought this
• 27:57
  Speaker 4: would be one I target pretty heavily, and I guess
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: I still will. If I'm not, you know, going heavily
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: after that mid range that we already talked about, or
• 28:04
  Speaker 4: like that mid uh mid range favorites that we already
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: talked about, maybe I still get a lot of Alvarez
• 28:11
  Speaker 4: because I can mix him with the underdogs that I'm
• 28:13
  Speaker 4: picking to win. I don't know what the hell I'm
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: doing on this card, to be honest, out with you
• 28:16
  Speaker 4: as we go. Yeah, but just as we talk about it,
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: I feel like I might just let the field have
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: that Alvarez and hope that he doesn't get the first
• 28:25
  Speaker 4: round finished, because I think this is a hard matchup
• 28:28
  Speaker 4: for him to get a finished, especially if he's not
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: going for takedowns.
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: I debated having him as a core play. I was
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: drinking the kool aid. You definitely talked me out of
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: core play. I mean, I'm now, I'm fine if I
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: had twenty five percent Alvarez or sixty percent.
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: I'm kind of in that range now because I was
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: loving him.
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: You talked me down a little bit, and I agree,
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: like closest, closest, fought, very good competition, closest, no bomb
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: by any means. Alvarez is like what he did at
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: Elvis Brenner was nasty, Like his stock is just rising.
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: People are buying the kool aid, like what he did
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: Thiago Moysis was nasty.
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: Then Seruki and humble them.
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: Man his frame, he's so dangerous, but with no takedown
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: upside if he does get like a second round, even
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: like a third round finish, I don't think it's enough.
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: Second round maybe, but if he just snatches the neck
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: ninety ninety five, like that's not enough. So you talked
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: me off, like going to too heavy on him. Yeah,
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: A couple others, A couple others. I preferred the upper tier,
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: like Buckley, Sterling, But I really don't love love this
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: upper tier.
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: I like Michael Johnson.
• 29:36
  Speaker 4: When we get there, Yeah, maybe I end up with
• 29:39
  Speaker 4: more freaking Maverick Maverick for that reason.
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: Because the upper tier is a great I will say.
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: I guess it's tiss on a hand I might have,
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: like I personally might lock Buckley, and maybe I'll go
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: that way. But I mean I was thinking maybe sixty
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: percent than twenty percent Kobe than twenty percent Fade.
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: But this talking with this like I might.
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: I'm not recommending other people to do that, but yeah,
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm definitely on the Buckley side when we
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: get there, and I might that just might be the
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: route I take if I don't love love this uppart tiers.
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: We keep going. I thought about thoughts.
• 30:13
  Speaker 4: I thought about locking Colby.
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: Oh God, all right, we'll.
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: Get to that fight shortly. That's gonna be good. Michael Johnson.
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: Oman as eights are minus two twenty Johnson, Wow, that's
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: gonna be a fun. One plus one eighty five is
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: a ear minus two ten for this fight to finish,
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: we have Johnson plus one twenty is Zittar plus two
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: thirty five give me Michael Johnson to knock him out.
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: I think he's more crisp. I think his left hand
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: will be going. I think South Paul will get as
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: Zitsar problems the movement on the Johnson side, I think
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: he's crisper, he's better. Otman's hit a ble, But I
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: will be playing some Ottman because if he wins, I
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: think he probably catches the chin of Johnson.
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: He has big boy power to get guine Johnson.
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: I think he's the minute win or can end up
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: finishing him at some point. But yeah, I'm definitely gonna
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: play some otman for only seventy five hundred. How do
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: you see this fight?
• 31:09
  Speaker 4: Yeah? I agree. I just think Johnson's better everywhere, and
• 31:14
  Speaker 4: he could mix in wrestling if he wants to. I
• 31:16
  Speaker 4: think as the Tar is more likely to fade after
• 31:19
  Speaker 4: round one, Johnson could just start laying takedowns if he
• 31:22
  Speaker 4: wants to, and really add up strikes on the ground.
• 31:25
  Speaker 4: So Johnson's I mean, yeah, Johnson's gonna be my preferred
• 31:28
  Speaker 4: play in this one. I'm picking him to win. He
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: could win really buy any method. But then on the
• 31:34
  Speaker 4: other end, as a TAR could win with one hundred
• 31:37
  Speaker 4: and ten points as an underdog and just completely break
• 31:40
  Speaker 4: the slates. So I'm not completely sold on having like
• 31:45
  Speaker 4: way more leverage on Johnson. If I end up making
• 31:47
  Speaker 4: one hundred and fifty and it gave me like forty
• 31:50
  Speaker 4: or like thirty thirty five percent as a TAR, thirty
• 31:53
  Speaker 4: percent Johnson, I'd be okay with that. Yeah, So this
• 31:57
  Speaker 4: is one where I'd say anywhere from one e fifty
• 32:02
  Speaker 4: on either side I'd probably be okay with. But give
• 32:05
  Speaker 4: me Johnson just to be the smooth guy, and if
• 32:08
  Speaker 4: he stays conscious, I think he wins.
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: As you can see, second most likely fight to finish
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: on the card minus two ten or no, I'm tweaking
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: third minus two hundred.
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: Maybe it's minus two ten, hold on, those were Tuesdays. Anyway,
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: it's really close. It's so mine. It's minus two ten. Now,
• 32:27
  Speaker 3: that's why I was tweaking.
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: So tied for second most likely to finish eighty seven
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: hundred only is Michael Johnson. I think you can easily
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: go build a team, Go Patrino, drop down to Johnson,
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: build Maverick drop down to Johnson. That shows you can leave,
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: in my opinion, one thousand, fifteen hundred on the card
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: like this, especially if you think Kobe wins.
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: I mean, you can be leaving two K.
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: I'm not recommending two K because I think you can
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: build a lot, leave a lot less salary and still
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: build low duke teams with thirteen fights. But I mean,
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: especially if you like Kobe teams, because his ceiling in
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: wins is one hundred and twenty, Like you can pretend
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: he's ninety two hundred and then in lineups like that,
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: then I would avoid the Miles Johns.
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: The World the horse of the world where.
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: We think, like seventy two is it if you're playing
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: Kobe and all that you want upside take a shot
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: on an opman stuff like that is.
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: How I'm looking at it.
• 33:21
  Speaker 4: And that's another reason I'm not doing the five five
• 33:25
  Speaker 4: five this week. Last week, I built those seven teams
• 33:27
  Speaker 4: and I just knew that they were way too chalky
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: to win one hundred K in the twenty five. So
• 33:32
  Speaker 4: I was like, you know, let's just let's go balls
• 33:34
  Speaker 4: of the wall do the five five five this week,
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: because I would never leave two thousand dollars on the
• 33:40
  Speaker 4: five five to five lineup, but that I'm handbuilding. Ever,
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: so if I'm ever like even in the range of thinking,
• 33:47
  Speaker 4: maybe I'll start making lineups with two k on the table.
• 33:49
  Speaker 4: That that just tells me it might be like a
• 33:51
  Speaker 4: fifty plus type of lineup week for me. So it's
• 33:54
  Speaker 4: more either a max the mini or I'll throw fifty
• 33:58
  Speaker 4: or so in the big one. I have no idea
• 34:00
  Speaker 4: what I'm gonna do yet, Yeah, but I just know
• 34:02
  Speaker 4: it won't be the five five to five.
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I love it, and I love your thought process.
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: Right there, let's keep it rolling. Next fight on the card.
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: The biggest favorites Navajos Sterling taking on George Tocos minus
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: nine hundred is Sterling six plus six hundred, Tocos minus
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: six hundred or minus two sixty excuse me for this
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: fight to finish Sterling minus two ten.
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: At Tocos plus six fifty.
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: I mean that's around one prop plus one seventy five
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: for Sterling both big boys six y four seventy nine
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: inch reach seventy six inch reach Sterling plus one seventy five.
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: City Kickboxing Guy only five and oh Tokos, I mean,
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: we know what he is he ain't that great. Yeah,
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: I agree with you. Five star, one star fay Toko
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: is play Sterling. Don't have to lock Sterling. But the
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: more we talk or definitely don't have to lock him,
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: I was gonna say, you don't have to get overweight,
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: like because of his price and being able to leave money.
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: But the more we talk about not loving the upper tier.
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: And I'll say it, especially if you like Kobe this week,
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: you'll probably have more Sterling than if you like Buckley
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: like I do. But regardless, I mean I want some
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: of him, a lot of upside.
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: Any thoughts, no tocos for you?
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: Yeah, well, one hundred and fifty linees, maybe I get
• 35:14
  Speaker 4: a little bit of tocos just because Sterling is so
• 35:17
  Speaker 4: green that it wouldn't shock me to see him loose.
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: It just looks like a complete setup fight for Sterling
• 35:24
  Speaker 4: to win. He is a solid kickboxer, has power. You
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: can just see that the dude has power by looking
• 35:30
  Speaker 4: at him, like he is built, and I just think
• 35:33
  Speaker 4: he's a much better overall kickboxer, more likely to get
• 35:36
  Speaker 4: the knockout. Looks like he's been working on his wrestling too,
• 35:41
  Speaker 4: So hopefully that's good, even if it's for defense. But
• 35:45
  Speaker 4: when I I didn't know who Sterling was going into
• 35:48
  Speaker 4: this card, so seeing the line, I was hoping he's
• 35:50
  Speaker 4: going to be some badass wrestler, and I was like,
• 35:52
  Speaker 4: I'm just gonna be all in on him in Kolby
• 35:54
  Speaker 4: this week. But since he's a kickboxer, if he's not
• 35:57
  Speaker 4: getting that first round knockout at ninety six hundred dollars,
• 36:00
  Speaker 4: he's probably not on the optimal lineup. So definitely not
• 36:04
  Speaker 4: all in on Sterling. I will probably get more than
• 36:07
  Speaker 4: i'd like, just because I I'm cool with getting Covington
• 36:11
  Speaker 4: at seventy two hundred dollars. I like John, so we
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: mentioned Padilla is cool with me. I'm gonna be able
• 36:18
  Speaker 4: to afford him, I think. So I'll still be around
• 36:21
  Speaker 4: field on him, and then maybe I'll get five percent
• 36:24
  Speaker 4: Tocos as a hedge and just kind of for the unknowns.
• 36:28
  Speaker 4: I don't know what the hell of its will look like.
• 36:30
  Speaker 4: If he lands a state takedown and Sterling's on his back,
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: maybe that's the rest of the round, just because Sterling
• 36:36
  Speaker 4: has nothing. I don't know that Toco is good enough
• 36:39
  Speaker 4: to keep him there, but I don't know that Sterling
• 36:43
  Speaker 4: isn't bad enough to just not lay there. So I
• 36:46
  Speaker 4: just don't know on this one, so I'll probably get
• 36:48
  Speaker 4: a lot of it.
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: I mean Tokos, Like, I'm not gonna play him in
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: twenty and below. I just think there's enough live dogs
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: with better money line value. But this is why pros,
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: But this is why pros do it, And like when
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: you play more team, you should be playing tocos. He's
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: plus six fifty inside the distance. If I told you
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: he wins inside the distance, do you think he's optimal
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: like ninety five.
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: Percent of the time or something I do?
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: Thirteen percent is plus six fifty inside the distance, Like
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: if you believe in books and numbers, You've got me
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: into looking at this stuff a lot more, looking at
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: the odds and then like translating into DFS thirteen percent,
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: Like again, I'm not going to be playing it, but
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: I'm having like I think it's a very solid play
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: because I think he's gonna be under thirteen percent on
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: two and then on the other side with Sterling plus
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: one seventy five in run one thirty six percent. Sure,
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: I think maybe I'll want to be around thirty five percent.
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: I could be like sixty five percent. Buckley still do whatever,
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: because if he's not in the first round, like you said,
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: you don't think he's optimal, and then that could be underweight.
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: Right now we have it underweight. I know you again,
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: this is your first run. I think Alvarez might get
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: a little ownership. Yeah, we'll see where we end up
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: on ownership, but I do think Sterling will probably be
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: around forty percent for sure. No final thoughts in this one.
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: Let's keep it rolling. For five fights left. Daniel Marcos
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: Adrian Yanaz minus two twenty five Marcos plus one ninety
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: is Yanas minus one twenty for this fight to finish,
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: Marcos plus one eighty Yanyas plus three to zero five.
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: I like Marcos in the spot again another one. I'm
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: gonna be playing both. Uh, it looks like you're on Yanya,
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: so we're gonna be different. Where I picked Marcos is
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: due to the leg kicks, and I just think he
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: has more weapons. Yana has more boxing hands. I think
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: it is very close there, but I think chopping the legs,
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: the movements, Marcos just looked really good to me.
• 38:44
  Speaker 3: So he's my pick.
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: Preferred play though might be Yanya's for the price difference,
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: and like Matt eighty five might be enough for Yanya's,
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: it's not enough for Marquez or Marcos. But then I
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: look at the inside of the distance proper. I don't know,
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: I'm going back and forth. Plus one eighty inside the
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: distance is really really good. Plus rieoh five is just solid.
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: So yeah, talk talk to the talk to me, Big Marley.
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: I'm sure I went on this one.
• 39:13
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm just gonna be on the Yanna's side. I
• 39:15
  Speaker 4: think Marcos is a pretty good striker, and yeah, the
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: Lake kicks maybe could, I mean not changed my mind,
• 39:21
  Speaker 4: but it makes me lookt not want to bet Yannas possibly,
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: which I am on the edge of possibly doing because
• 39:30
  Speaker 4: because that Jonathan Martinez fight. Really but I I think
• 39:36
  Speaker 4: I've always picked you on. I'm just an.
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: Fight like I mean, obviously it was the knockout, but
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: I final was he was chewing him up a bit
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: and it was given and he likes had to commit
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: more and take more chances.
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: It doesn't seem like he does that well with the
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: like kicks and boxing.
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: Style makes sense. But I don't want to talk you
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: off of bet. You've been money luk so many. Hey,
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: check out Big Marley's bets over there. I don't see
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: he checks it out. You've you've done great, so but yeah,
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: keep going.
• 40:05
  Speaker 4: No, but that makes sense. I do think that the
• 40:07
  Speaker 4: lake kicks will cause him problems. Uh, But I don't
• 40:10
  Speaker 4: like Marcos for dfs because if he's not gonna get
• 40:13
  Speaker 4: a finish, then I don't know how he's gonna score
• 40:16
  Speaker 4: well because I don't think he's gonna look to wrestle much.
• 40:18
  Speaker 4: I doubt he lands more than one, maybe two takedowns.
• 40:21
  Speaker 4: He's he's a striker, so if he's not getting takedowns,
• 40:24
  Speaker 4: he's not getting a knockout. I don't think he's hitting
• 40:28
  Speaker 4: ten x in a in a decision. So I'll avoid Marcos.
• 40:31
  Speaker 4: Not gonna say I'm gonna x him out, but I
• 40:33
  Speaker 4: just don't think I'm gonna get much Marcos at all,
• 40:36
  Speaker 4: probably five to ten percent something like that, to be honest. Uh.
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: And then Yanna is I just I'm a big believer
• 40:42
  Speaker 4: in his striking. I love the angles that's he's throwing at.
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: The ones that knock people out are the ones that
• 40:48
  Speaker 4: they don't see coming, and the angles that he throws
• 40:50
  Speaker 4: at makes it where you just can't see him all coming.
• 40:52
  Speaker 4: So I like that. I like his striking a lot.
• 40:55
  Speaker 4: I think he's the more dangerous one. He's more likely
• 40:57
  Speaker 4: to break the slate. He's also cheaper.
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 41:00
  Speaker 4: And to me, this is just a Pickham fight, and
• 41:04
  Speaker 4: I probably would honestly favor Giannis if he had a
• 41:08
  Speaker 4: full camp. I think he took this fight on short notice.
• 41:11
  Speaker 4: If he had a full camp, I'm just more impressed
• 41:13
  Speaker 4: with him overall. So I'd give him the slight edge
• 41:18
  Speaker 4: with a with a you know, a six week, eight
• 41:20
  Speaker 4: week camp something like that. But I do think that
• 41:23
  Speaker 4: a Pickham line makes sense to me, So give me
• 41:26
  Speaker 4: the underdog in this one. If I'm making twenty lineups,
• 41:29
  Speaker 4: I'm fading Marcos and I'm overweight to Jannis. I'm not
• 41:33
  Speaker 4: like all in On. I don't think he scores good
• 41:35
  Speaker 4: in a decision either, but I just think he has
• 41:38
  Speaker 4: more of a ceiling with his knockout upside. And I
• 41:41
  Speaker 4: also think he's just a live dog who's seventy seven hundred.
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and look at the volume six point five one
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: significant rice per minute.
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: That could be eighty eighty five, you take.
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: I would sign up for that at seventy seven hundred
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: for sure, great breakdown.
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: I're on different sides, but that's some beauty of it.
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: Let keep it rolling.
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: Four fights, lot, Vitor patrin Onto making on Dustin Jacoby
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: minus three thirty Patrino plus two seventy Jacoby minus two
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: ten for this fight to finish Patrino minus one forty
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: five Jacoby plus five hundred. I'm throwing it to you
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: right away. Does Patrino wrestle from the get go? If
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: it's on the feet, what do you line this fight at?
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: Because I don't think it's even close to minus three
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: hundred anything.
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: If it's a kickboxing.
• 42:22
  Speaker 4: Match, yeah, I mean, if it's on the fet i'd
• 42:25
  Speaker 4: definitely still get Petrino a chance.
• 42:27
  Speaker 3: He's not going to go yeah minus three hundred.
• 42:30
  Speaker 4: Yeah, Well, like going against a pure kickboxer, I still
• 42:33
  Speaker 4: think like Patrino could outstrike him for three rounds. I
• 42:37
  Speaker 4: think he's more likely to get a knockout of the two.
• 42:39
  Speaker 4: If it's a striking match. He's just a hoss, like
• 42:41
  Speaker 4: he's got mad power. I think he could knock him
• 42:43
  Speaker 4: out on the feet or knock him out with ground
• 42:46
  Speaker 4: and pound here. But yeah, I if i'm his coach,
• 42:50
  Speaker 4: I'm telling him to wrestle like Jacoby was kicked out
• 42:53
  Speaker 4: of the UFC many eight years ago because he sucked
• 42:55
  Speaker 4: at wrestling. He couldn't stop takedowns, he couldn't get up,
• 42:59
  Speaker 4: and then he finally comes back. They're like, yeah, he's
• 43:03
  Speaker 4: mid thirties, is his last shot, Let's let's give him
• 43:06
  Speaker 4: a chance. And he's looked really good in these kickboxing
• 43:08
  Speaker 4: fights that they've been given him, but he hasn't really
• 43:10
  Speaker 4: faced any real wrestlers. He was taken down like what
• 43:14
  Speaker 4: eight nine times by Cute Laba.
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: I will say he kept getting back up though, and
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: then there was a draw because he runs two and three,
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: but he kept getting They were all against the fence.
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: To be fair, it wasn't in the middle of the octagon,
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: which is different.
• 43:27
  Speaker 4: Yeah, But I also don't consider like cue Laba like
• 43:29
  Speaker 4: a wrestler. I don't think he's controlling anyone. He's just
• 43:32
  Speaker 4: a pure power guy who.
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: Could He's a spaz that just does that anything. Yeah.
• 43:37
  Speaker 4: Yeah. But Petrino is a guy who I think could
• 43:40
  Speaker 4: land three to eight takedowns, control sometime on the ground,
• 43:45
  Speaker 4: land some big shots, or get a knockout on the feet.
• 43:50
  Speaker 4: So Patrino is my preferred payup option on the slate actually,
• 43:55
  Speaker 4: because he can get there multiple ways, but the wrestling
• 43:58
  Speaker 4: would be my favorite. The only reason he's a five
• 44:01
  Speaker 4: star on my list here is because I'm picturing him
• 44:06
  Speaker 4: wrestling just from the beginning, and I just think if
• 44:09
  Speaker 4: he does that, he's going to score great U And
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: that makes me not like Jacoby, But I would say
• 44:15
  Speaker 4: a more fair ranking will be a four and a
• 44:17
  Speaker 4: two on this one. But Patrino's gonna be my highest honor,
• 44:21
  Speaker 4: highest highest owned favorite on the car.
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: I think that makes sense.
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: I'm lower on Patrino because I higher on Jacoby, and
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: if it is that kickboxing, I think Patrino can bust
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: that high ownership. But I get it like I'm still
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: playing Patrino because the wrestling upside.
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: Is clearly there.
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: You just got to see three point nine to eight
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: takeos per fifteen. One other reason is just man Anthony
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: Smith washed. Anthony Smith just beat him. I know it's
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: not just apples oranges or what like, but Anthony Smith, like,
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: come on, that dude is he's he's got to hang
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: it up and he just beat Vetur Patrino.
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: So I'm gonna go.
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: Jacoby keep it on the feed at rain, but Patrino
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: at odds and if he does wrestle from the get go,
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: which is live easily can break the lay. And again
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: the upper tier is just okay, I think. So I'm
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: gonna play some, but not as high as Big Marley
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: is on him.
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: Three fights left, this one.
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: I am not very high on either, but I'm I'm
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: underdog like I was on Jacoby. Give me a little
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: Bruno Silva in this one taking on Minel Cop minus
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: three sixty five Cop plus three hundred Silva plus three
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: one thirty for this fight to finish Cop plus one
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: seventy Silva plus six hundred. I just think the odds
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: are two wide. Silva's game man, He's got power, he
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: can grapple, he can scramble Cop. Sometimes he goes out
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: there and throws no volume. Sometimes he goes out there
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: against the Zogas fight and is there for blood. I mean,
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Like the Cop versus Canutans versus the
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: Mavericks of the world was all really close versus Delema
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: like I we talked about earlier, I don't love any
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: of them. If I'm handbuilding five t I'm not getting
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: the Cop he is plus one seventy inside the distance
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: though Big Marley, which comes out to thirty seven percent. Now,
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: third round knockout probably not good enough. Second round maybe.
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: Thirty seven percent though, is like three x's ownership. So
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: that is what made him stay in my pool and
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: be fine if I got fifteen percent, Because if you're
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: just going ownership versus inside the distance, there's definitely like
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: you should be overweight in theory two.
• 46:30
  Speaker 3: Cop that way.
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: But I don't know his volume's ma meh, he doesn't
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: really wrestle. I'm definitely gonna play some Silva though, so yeah,
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: talk to me about cops start.
• 46:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 46:42
  Speaker 4: I mean that inside the distance line makes me maybe
• 46:47
  Speaker 4: want some cop too. But I ninety for a striker
• 46:53
  Speaker 4: who doesn't throw volume. This is not my style. I'm
• 46:56
  Speaker 4: not gonna play cop.
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: Fuck it.
• 46:57
  Speaker 4: I'm just gonna let the field have it. If he
• 47:00
  Speaker 4: gets the first round knockout, he gets it, I'm on
• 47:03
  Speaker 4: the I think he wins. I just think he is
• 47:05
  Speaker 4: the better striker, the more dangerous striker. He probably is
• 47:08
  Speaker 4: able to keep this on the feet, and I think
• 47:10
  Speaker 4: he wins a decision that way. But he's not gonna
• 47:14
  Speaker 4: score ten X or more in a decision in my
• 47:18
  Speaker 4: opinion anyways. But if Silva wins this fight really by
• 47:23
  Speaker 4: any method. I feel like he probably does score ten
• 47:26
  Speaker 4: X and he's got a hundred point upside. He's got
• 47:28
  Speaker 4: like six knockdowns in his last four fights or something
• 47:30
  Speaker 4: like that.
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: He's good.
• 47:32
  Speaker 4: Yeah, he's the better grappler. I just wish he would
• 47:36
  Speaker 4: wrestle him more. If he would wrestle more, this damn
• 47:41
  Speaker 4: near should be closer to a pick on line. So
• 47:44
  Speaker 4: I agree, dog or pass. Betting dog or pass for DFS,
• 47:47
  Speaker 4: I'm probably gonna x COP out of my player pool.
• 47:50
  Speaker 4: He's my least favorite play on at least favorite favorite
• 47:55
  Speaker 4: on the card. At least I'll have more canuts and
• 47:59
  Speaker 4: the cop.
• 48:01
  Speaker 3: All right, I like it.
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: Maybe you talk to me even lower or higher on Silva,
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: even lower on COP, but I agree it's it's sogger
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: pass for me in this one too.
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: Two fights left thumbs up, very much appreciated.
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: Subscribe as well, and again, if you do want to
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: join us, b F fifty is the promo code gets
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: you fifty percent off your first month.
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: Definitely do get in the discord IMMA last week.
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: For the new year.
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: Then we'll be back on the eleventh. NFL College football
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: still going on, NBA NHL as well. Billy Q minus
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: one forty six taking on cups, Swanson plus one twenty
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: six minus one fifteen for this fight to finish, Billy
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: Q plus one seventy five inside the distance cup Swans
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: and plus three forty Take it away, Big Marley. I
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: see a four star, and I think the reason for
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: that Billy C always fun in terms of dfs seven
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: point three six takedowns per fifteen one point two four
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: or seven point three six significant strikes per minute one
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: point two four takedowns.
• 48:56
  Speaker 4: Take this fight away, Yeah, I think the first could
• 49:00
  Speaker 4: be close. Billy cu'es kind of a slow starter. Swanson's
• 49:04
  Speaker 4: forty one years old, so I think the best of
• 49:06
  Speaker 4: him is gonna come in the first round. He could
• 49:09
  Speaker 4: be the better striker in that first round. But after that, man,
• 49:13
  Speaker 4: I just think once Billy gets going, he's going to
• 49:15
  Speaker 4: be the better striker. He's going to be the better wrestler,
• 49:18
  Speaker 4: He's going to be the better grappler. Swanson's been tapped out.
• 49:21
  Speaker 4: I don't even remember. I want to say like eight times,
• 49:24
  Speaker 4: five to eight times or something like that. I just
• 49:26
  Speaker 4: think Billy is going to be able to find a
• 49:28
  Speaker 4: late submission if things aren't going Swanson's way especially, and
• 49:35
  Speaker 4: Billy is looking to wrestle a lot. I just feel
• 49:37
  Speaker 4: like that's the time, Like, let me get out of here.
• 49:40
  Speaker 4: I'm not getting paid by the hour. Let me go
• 49:41
  Speaker 4: ahead and give up my back. Take this out seven times,
• 49:45
  Speaker 4: seven times? Okay? So yeah, I mean that's forty one
• 49:49
  Speaker 4: years old. That's just how I see it going down.
• 49:51
  Speaker 4: Is Billy just takes over late, submits him in the
• 49:53
  Speaker 4: third round, and he can do enough work even if
• 49:57
  Speaker 4: he drops the first round, he could do enough work
• 49:59
  Speaker 4: in the second and in the third round to be
• 50:01
  Speaker 4: on the optimal lineup at eighty four hundred dollars. So
• 50:04
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna be overweight for sure. To Quarantio, I don't
• 50:07
  Speaker 4: like dislike Swanson for dfs, but on this slate, I
• 50:11
  Speaker 4: dislike Swanson because I just like Covington more. I like
• 50:14
  Speaker 4: Silver more, I like jan As Moore, I like as
• 50:17
  Speaker 4: Atar more, I like Padilla Moore, I like John's Moore.
• 50:20
  Speaker 4: There's just so many other plays I'd rather get to.
• 50:21
  Speaker 4: So I'm gonna x Swanson out hope that it's not
• 50:24
  Speaker 4: his time to score one hundred and thirty points or
• 50:26
  Speaker 4: something like that, and just kill me but I think
• 50:29
  Speaker 4: there's better underdog plays. He is somewhat live, but I
• 50:33
  Speaker 4: also think that's more recency bias. With Quarantio looking really
• 50:37
  Speaker 4: bad in his last fight, I think the line should
• 50:41
  Speaker 4: be wider than it is. Billy's possible bet for me, Yeah,
• 50:44
  Speaker 4: I don't.
• 50:44
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't hate that bad.
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: I do think you have some balls to fake Cup though,
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: just the fact of Billy Cues pays alone and how
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: he fights like it's gonna open up opportunities and shots
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: for Cup. And we've seen Billy Q hurt so at
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: seventy eight hundred, I'm definitely gonna be playing some CUB.
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: I do like Billy K though he has my preferred
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: play because of his upside. What I wanted to say,
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, Billy Cue, his scores and his wins in
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: the UFC one thirty one, one, forty one one twenty five,
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: one O nine, eighty seven, eighty five. You'll take what
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: four of those six, one, two, three, four, five six,
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: You'll take four of those six one o nine and
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: above any day of the week. That's Billy c for you.
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: But that's also again why I'm gonna play some Cup,
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: because he's gonna come forward. With a bunch of aggression
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: and Forrest come into a dog fight. So yeah, I
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: like this fight. Main event time, Big Marley. I can't
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: wait to hear your thoughts on this one. Buckley Wall
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: Keep Buckley, Kobe Covington minus two sixty five Buckley plus
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: two twenty five Covington plus one oh five for this
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: fight to finish. So you see, I put this in
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: Tuesday minus one ten now plus one.
• 51:54
  Speaker 3: Oh five to finish.
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: Money coming in on the over, Buckley plus one third
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: inside the distance Covington plus seven fifty. I'll get my
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: quick thusts and throw it to you. I want fight
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: fhades on this one now plus one oh five makes
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: me want fight phase even more. Kobe, I mean he
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: looked awful against Leon. He's getting up there in age
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: every single time. Buckley coming into his own and grown
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: ass man. I don't want to full fade Covington because
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: Covington hasn't or Buckley hasn't been in a five round fight.
• 52:25
  Speaker 3: Comington's a heavy wrestler.
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: If he wins, he probably is on the optimal He's
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: gonna get a bunch of ownership, though, And I think
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: Buckley wins like I'm taking a minus two to sixty favorite.
• 52:35
  Speaker 3: I'm cutting off what we have about fifty percent owned.
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: Maybe it's forty two percent, maybe forty whatever it is,
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: that's a plus two to twenty five dog getting that
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: much ownership, I think get the minus two sixty five
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: guy with the way better inside, the distance, prop advantage,
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: on the feet, the power advantage.
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: I think he knocks out Kobe at some point.
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: Kobe's been in wars, but Buckley wins a decision he
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: could bust Kobe doesn't get there, and then you get
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: a fight fade, which is gonna be very low owned.
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: And there's so many ways you can go about it there.
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: So I'm gonna be overweight Buckley, underweight Kobe, but probably
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: overweight on the fight fades as well. That's how underweight
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: Kobe I'll be. I know we're gonna be different. If
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: Kobe wins, he probably scores well, you do well, So
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: the members, I don't know, maybe split it, maybe tail
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: Big Marley, maybe tail me good luck.
• 53:26
  Speaker 3: But yeah, talk to the people why they should almost
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: lock Kobe.
• 53:32
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't think I'm gonna end up blocking, and
• 53:34
  Speaker 4: I think the way I'm gonna go about it is
• 53:35
  Speaker 4: just probably will lock the fight more so as a
• 53:39
  Speaker 4: hedge on the buck This side. I think the way
• 53:41
  Speaker 4: it doesn't end up on the optim lineup would be
• 53:42
  Speaker 4: Buckley winning, maybe even Covington wins the first second round,
• 53:48
  Speaker 4: Buckley knocks him out in the or something like that.
• 53:51
  Speaker 4: But if COVID, if Covington wins, I almost feel like
• 53:55
  Speaker 4: he's a lock for the optimal lineup, and he has
• 53:57
  Speaker 4: the biggest ceiling on the entire slates said two hundred dollars,
• 54:01
  Speaker 4: Like if anyone can touch one hundred and sixty points
• 54:04
  Speaker 4: on the slate, it's Covington. And coming off that last fight,
• 54:09
  Speaker 4: I mean, I'll take Leon over Buckley. So I think
• 54:12
  Speaker 4: that's a tougher matchup. Uh And I heard he broke
• 54:16
  Speaker 4: his foot too, that's not that's not great. If you're
• 54:19
  Speaker 4: gonna have to go twenty five minutes and you got
• 54:20
  Speaker 4: to wrestle heavily because you're not the better striker, that
• 54:24
  Speaker 4: that's gonna affect you a big time. So I think
• 54:25
  Speaker 4: that the line is just crazy with recency bias by
• 54:30
  Speaker 4: how bad Kobe looked plus how good Buckley has looked lately,
• 54:36
  Speaker 4: and a lot of that has been Buckley being a
• 54:38
  Speaker 4: very good wrestler. That's not gonna happen in this match.
• 54:41
  Speaker 4: If you're not taking down Colby four times, you're not
• 54:43
  Speaker 4: gonna You're not gonna dominate. You know, ten minutes of
• 54:46
  Speaker 4: control time against a guy like Kolbe. If someone has
• 54:49
  Speaker 4: ten plus minutes a control time in this fight, it
• 54:51
  Speaker 4: is Colby. And then like you give me Kobe, give
• 54:55
  Speaker 4: me his striking against Usman, I'm taking Kolby to win
• 54:59
  Speaker 4: that twenty five minutes.
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: You think that's that, You think that's the same Kobe,
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: because I don't, But I would agree with you if
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: that is it.
• 55:05
  Speaker 3: Like I saw enough.
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: Probably I saw enough against Leon and he can say
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: the foot maybe I wouldn't be surprised that's I know,
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: there's a picture whatever, But man, I have not seen
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: a glimpse of.
• 55:16
  Speaker 3: That against like he did against Usman. But yeah, I
• 55:19
  Speaker 3: would agree. You'd be his wreaking against Usman. He went
• 55:22
  Speaker 3: toe to toe with him like that was an insane fight.
• 55:25
  Speaker 4: And we're only one fight removed from when he just
• 55:27
  Speaker 4: put a crazy pace on mosvital Ate, one of the meaniest,
• 55:31
  Speaker 4: meanest punches towards the end of that fight that just
• 55:34
  Speaker 4: cranked his whole neck to the side. Should have would
• 55:36
  Speaker 4: knock out ninety percent of fighters, and he ate that.
• 55:41
  Speaker 4: I just think one of those times.
• 55:42
  Speaker 3: He's not gonna eat it.
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: But yeah, like and buck he's a grown man, but yeah,
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: who knows when, Like it's always hard to when to
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: write people off, people run off Luke. He showed it
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: like Kobe could easily come out that you thought, like,
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: I've been at the top for this long with my wrestling.
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: This guy thinks he's the hot thing. I'm Buckley was
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: five and I think five and one seventies, like he's
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: lost plenty.
• 56:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's you're making cases and make me want to
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: play more. Kobe.
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna let myself because of his ownership though,
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: Like he's gonna be so high owned, and I want
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: fight fades because Buckley could knock him out at the
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: third after being wrestled or decision or if I think
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: Buckley wins, I can see pass where he's not optimal,
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: whereas that's not the case with Kobe really, and that's
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: why you should jam Kobe. So yeah, it's a yeah.
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: Any final thoughts of this fight the whole card, it's
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: a good one. It's a really good DFS card.
• 56:36
  Speaker 4: I guess another last thought on this fight is, like,
• 56:38
  Speaker 4: I think that it could be Sunday and in hide
• 56:41
  Speaker 4: sight and in hindsight, it looks like the line should
• 56:44
  Speaker 4: be flipped. Like Covington could easily go out there and
• 56:47
  Speaker 4: look like a seventy five percent favorite against Buckley in
• 56:51
  Speaker 4: this one, and he could get fifteen takedowns in this fight. Like,
• 56:55
  Speaker 4: I think that this is a fight as long as
• 56:57
  Speaker 4: he still has the cardio to go a heavy, hard
• 57:00
  Speaker 4: twenty five minutes, then this is the fight where you
• 57:02
  Speaker 4: just never give Buckley a chance to breathe. You don't
• 57:05
  Speaker 4: have to have clean striking at all. Make it like
• 57:08
  Speaker 4: the the Morob versus Peter Yon fight where just Yan
• 57:12
  Speaker 4: never gets a chance to get off because he's always
• 57:15
  Speaker 4: on the back pedal because Rob's either going for a
• 57:18
  Speaker 4: takedown or pushing forward. I just think that's the perfect
• 57:21
  Speaker 4: game plan here for Covington, and that has to be
• 57:25
  Speaker 4: the game plan he takes. So I'm gonna be heavy
• 57:28
  Speaker 4: on Covington. Uh, maybe I'll be like seventy thirty something
• 57:32
  Speaker 4: like that because I do like so many other underdogs
• 57:34
  Speaker 4: where uh, and I don't love the nine k ring,
• 57:37
  Speaker 4: So I'm cool mixing in some Buckley in case he
• 57:40
  Speaker 4: gets that first round knockout, which I definitely think he's
• 57:42
  Speaker 4: live for if there's a knockout in this fight. I mean,
• 57:46
  Speaker 4: I'm not gonna say that Covington doesn't have a chance
• 57:48
  Speaker 4: to get a knockout, but it's most likely.
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, U I'll give him that at least most definitely
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: awesome stuff, Big Marlee. Again, this is the last card.
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: We will be talking for a whole month. We will
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: be back January eleventh is the first one back from
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: the new year.
• 58:06
  Speaker 3: Always awesome. Always love talking fights with you. Always appreciate
• 58:09
  Speaker 3: every single one watching. Always appreciate the support, whether it's
• 58:12
  Speaker 3: just a YouTube.
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: Member, whether you pay for our content, you're watching, you're
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: in the discord, your sweating fights with us.
• 58:19
  Speaker 3: Hopefully ship a.
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: Nation logos up top, you're helping get to the top,
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: Big Marley, awesome stuff. Any final words for the people Again,
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: I always will be back in a month. Still plenty
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: NFL and stuff going on at ship in Nation thoughts.
• 58:32
  Speaker 4: I mean, it was a great year of fights. Hopefully
• 58:34
  Speaker 4: we end with a bang and then we got football
• 58:38
  Speaker 4: at least during this break too, So that's a good one.
• 58:40
  Speaker 4: Good luck to you title, good luck to everybody listening.
• 58:43
  Speaker 4: Let's ship it.
• 58:45
  Speaker 3: Holidays, absolutely everybody out there. Enjoy the holidays. Mary Christina's
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: Happy New Year. We'll be talking fights at the next
• 58:52
  Speaker 3: New Year. Enjoy NFL. Though at college football, NBA is
• 58:56
  Speaker 3: still plenty of money to be made. That's what we'll
• 58:58
  Speaker 3: be at CHIP, but getting the discord for Big Marley.
• 59:00
  Speaker 3: I'm titled town Peace, good luck, s