Latest / Toadstool Sports / Tuesday BEST BETS | MLB & NHL & NBA | 4/7/26
Transcript
- 0:01Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
- 0:05Speaker 1: Own seven run over the last two days after tonight.
- 0:08Speaker 2: It was just complete bullshit.
- 0:10Speaker 1: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
- 0:13Speaker 1: Sunday one and five.
- 0:15Speaker 2: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
- 0:17Speaker 2: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
- 0:19Speaker 2: never seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing.
- 0:24Speaker 1: Two straight losses, not a good day at all. Own
- 0:27Speaker 1: four next have not had a good season. Man with
- 0:32Speaker 1: wookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues.
- 0:37Speaker 2: I've reached into pink. Actually, I'm going to burn my
- 0:41Speaker 2: broins hat. Man, I don't know what is going on
- 0:43Speaker 2: with the Bruins. March Hape, is that what it is?
- 0:46Speaker 2: I don't even know it's it's March ninth, I think
- 0:50Speaker 2: who even knows? Man, I don't know what day it
- 0:52Speaker 2: is anymore. I don't even know what day it is anymore. Man,
- 0:55Speaker 2: back with you after the worst day that I.
- 0:58Speaker 1: Could possibly have, Back with you as I always am
- 1:02Speaker 1: until I die, at least oh and two.
- 1:05Speaker 2: Yesterday and yesterday it did not go well for me.
- 1:08Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
- 1:12Speaker 1: my eighteen years doing this, I don't know what to
- 1:14Speaker 1: even tell you about this anymore. To the Slumperies, the
- 1:17Speaker 1: slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
- 1:20Speaker 2: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
- 1:23Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
- 1:25Speaker 1: other than potentially.
- 1:27Speaker 2: End it all. What's up? Everybody?
- 1:34Speaker 1: Sewed back with you with Toadstool Sports. It is Tuesday,
- 1:39Speaker 1: April seventh. We had another winning day yesterday with a
- 1:42Speaker 1: two and one day yesterday, six and one over the
- 1:46Speaker 1: last three days.
- 1:47Speaker 2: I'll take it. It's a nice run.
- 1:50Speaker 1: We got the over correct with Astros Rockies yesterday. It
- 1:54Speaker 1: did take one massive inning from the Rockies to get
- 1:57Speaker 1: it there, but however you get it, I'll take it.
- 1:59Speaker 1: Man had an eight run I think fifth inning or
- 2:02Speaker 1: something for Colorado. Obviously, I'll take the win there. The
- 2:06Speaker 1: seventy six ers let us down. They were hanging around
- 2:08Speaker 1: in that game for the most part and then had.
- 2:11Speaker 2: A pretty bad fourth quarter and wound up not.
- 2:13Speaker 1: Covering I think they were within like three or four
- 2:15Speaker 1: points at the start of the fourth quarter or something
- 2:18Speaker 1: like that, so it was looking like they might cover that,
- 2:21Speaker 1: but that didn't happen, and then we did get Yukon
- 2:25Speaker 1: right with the cover. In the College Basketball Championship, Michigan
- 2:30Speaker 1: also won, so we got our bracket champion right. So
- 2:33Speaker 1: everything pretty much went right for us in that game.
- 2:36Speaker 1: People who had the under, I believe got that one
- 2:39Speaker 1: pretty easily as well.
- 2:41Speaker 2: Yukon.
- 2:42Speaker 1: I think covering was correlated to the under. The game
- 2:44Speaker 1: was played at Yukon's pace. It was way low scoring.
- 2:48Speaker 1: Of course, Michigan couldn't hit any three pointers in the game. Dude, Like,
- 2:53Speaker 1: if you had told me that Michigan was gonna have
- 2:55Speaker 1: two three pointers in the entire game that they made,
- 2:58Speaker 1: I would have been like, yeah, Michigan might lose this
- 3:01Speaker 1: game outright. But Michigan was excellent from the free throw line.
- 3:06Speaker 1: They people will say that the refing was biased in
- 3:09Speaker 1: the game, maybe a little bit, but Michigan was definitely
- 3:14Speaker 1: pretty dominant in the paint and that was mostly the
- 3:17Speaker 1: reason why they kept getting to the line. But they
- 3:19Speaker 1: were not missing any of their free throws. I think
- 3:21Speaker 1: they missed maybe two or three in the entire game.
- 3:24Speaker 1: They hit twenty in a row at one point. That
- 3:26Speaker 1: is championship stuff right there, man, making your free throw.
- 3:30Speaker 1: So Michigan was able to do that they did not
- 3:33Speaker 1: do what Duke did.
- 3:35Speaker 2: As far as Michigan.
- 3:37Speaker 1: Was able to break the Yukon press when they were
- 3:39Speaker 1: winning the game at the end.
- 3:40Speaker 2: They did.
- 3:41Speaker 1: They turned it over I think just once, and Yukon
- 3:44Speaker 1: basically had a fast break and missed and didn't score.
- 3:48Speaker 1: That was kind of a wild sequence of events there,
- 3:51Speaker 1: very strange. But yeah, Michigan did not totally mess the
- 3:54Speaker 1: game up.
- 3:55Speaker 2: Like dude, I don't know what is going on over here.
- 3:57Speaker 1: They're talking about that game right now over there, but
- 3:59Speaker 1: I hear like some beeping coming out of my TV
- 4:02Speaker 1: over there.
- 4:02Speaker 2: I don't know what's going on there. Anyway. I don't
- 4:06Speaker 2: wanna be labored this. We've got a lot to talk
- 4:08Speaker 2: about today.
- 4:08Speaker 1: I'm narrowing everything down to one play today in baseball
- 4:11Speaker 1: and that's it. I'm skipping big NHL and NBA boards.
- 4:15Speaker 1: I just can't do it, man, There's nothing that I
- 4:17Speaker 1: really like. So that's what I'm doing. I'm gonna break
- 4:21Speaker 1: everything down as I usually do, and I gotta calm down, man,
- 4:26Speaker 1: I gotta relax a little bit, you know, maybe lower
- 4:29Speaker 1: my voice a little bit here. Hopefully people can still
- 4:31Speaker 1: hear me. I don't know, I feel like I just
- 4:33Speaker 1: I talk too loud and when I have my audio
- 4:36Speaker 1: monitoring on, even if I have my headphones on, I
- 4:39Speaker 1: guess I could try it again, but even when I do,
- 4:42Speaker 1: it's like, I don't know. I don't And maybe that'll
- 4:46Speaker 1: help keep my voice down a little bit, but I
- 4:47Speaker 1: don't know.
- 4:48Speaker 2: It's like I can't. I don't know.
- 4:51Speaker 1: I can't keep my voice at like a lower level.
- 4:53Speaker 1: But I'm gonna try, because I hate listen to my
- 4:56Speaker 1: own voice, man, So maybe we'll just get a little bit,
- 5:00Speaker 1: We'll get a little bit sexy here, man.
- 5:02Speaker 2: I don't know. I'm gonna try.
- 5:03Speaker 1: I'm gonna try. I'm gonna try to lower my voice
- 5:05Speaker 1: a bit. But anyway, Yeah, Yukon was able to cover
- 5:09Speaker 1: that game. They did have a pretty wild three towards.
- 5:13Speaker 2: The end of that game. If you saw that solo ball.
- 5:17Speaker 1: Just basically jacked up a wild three that I wasn't
- 5:20Speaker 1: even sure it was a three. I thought he might
- 5:21Speaker 1: have been in front of the three point line. Watching
- 5:26Speaker 1: the replay, it was actually a three. But that was
- 5:28Speaker 1: a crazy shot that went off the backboard and in
- 5:30Speaker 1: and kept Yukon in the game and was one of
- 5:33Speaker 1: the reasons why we covered because Michigan did hit a
- 5:36Speaker 1: couple of free throws at the end. But at that
- 5:38Speaker 1: point I was like, okay, just we need to avoid
- 5:41Speaker 1: Yukon fouling one more time because it was a six
- 5:46Speaker 1: point game again with like I don't know, eleven seconds left.
- 5:50Speaker 1: But luckily that happened because Yukon missed a shot and
- 5:53Speaker 1: then I think there was like kind of a wild
- 5:57Speaker 1: rebound and Michigan just I think kind of actually intelligently
- 6:01Speaker 1: just threw the ball all the way down the other
- 6:04Speaker 1: end of the court to try to waste the rest
- 6:05Speaker 1: of the clock, and that is what happened. Yukon got
- 6:08Speaker 1: to the ball, you got probably should have let that ball,
- 6:11Speaker 1: I don't know. Should they have let the ball go
- 6:12Speaker 1: out of bounce, It wouldn't have mattered at that point
- 6:14Speaker 1: because they were down two possessions anyway. I don't even
- 6:17Speaker 1: know if it was gonna go out of bounce quickly
- 6:18Speaker 1: enough anyway, but I think Caravan grabbed the ball away
- 6:21Speaker 1: in the back court and there was just not enough
- 6:23Speaker 1: time left to do anything. But it was still It
- 6:26Speaker 1: was a good performance from Yukon in the game, too, man,
- 6:28Speaker 1: but Michigan put together a dominant tournament run.
- 6:31Speaker 2: So congratulations to them.
- 6:34Speaker 1: Congratulations to people who won bracket pools by following my
- 6:39Speaker 1: bracket to some extent.
- 6:42Speaker 2: So there you go.
- 6:42Speaker 1: It's the first champion that I've had right since. I think,
- 6:46Speaker 1: I don't know, it's been a while. I think I
- 6:48Speaker 1: head back to back in twenty sixteen twenty seventeen, and
- 6:51Speaker 1: I think I haven't had one right since then.
- 6:53Speaker 2: So all right, let's get into today.
- 6:56Speaker 1: Man. We got baseball to talk about here this afternoon baseball.
- 7:00Speaker 2: Couple of afternoon games.
- 7:01Speaker 1: The first one up ESPN and MLB unlimited Kansas City
- 7:06Speaker 1: and Cleveland. Cleveland lost the game yesterday to Kansas City
- 7:10Speaker 1: four to two. Kansas City has not had a good
- 7:13Speaker 1: offense this year, man, So.
- 7:17Speaker 2: I mean, excuse me, Kansas City has not had a
- 7:19Speaker 2: good bullpen. Excuse me.
- 7:20Speaker 1: So I think Cleveland does have the better bullpen here,
- 7:23Speaker 1: believe it or not. I think the Royals have actually
- 7:25Speaker 1: had the better off Well, both of these offenses stunk
- 7:28Speaker 1: last year, but I think Kansas City has had the
- 7:30Speaker 1: better offense this year. So that's what we're looking at here.
- 7:35Speaker 1: Starting pitching matchup, Noah Cameron pitching.
- 7:38Speaker 2: For the Royals.
- 7:39Speaker 1: He was a rookie I believe last year had a
- 7:41Speaker 1: good start to start this season, which I believe we
- 7:45Speaker 1: had an under in that game and it wound up
- 7:47Speaker 1: going way over, which was no fault of Noah Camera.
- 7:50Speaker 2: And because he went five innings.
- 7:52Speaker 1: And allowed one run against Minnesota, five strikeouts, one walk,
- 7:56Speaker 1: Cameron good numbers against Cleveland as well, thirty four of
- 8:00Speaker 1: bats eight, one strikeout walk ratio.
- 8:03Speaker 2: Josean Ramirez does hit him well, four for five.
- 8:05Speaker 1: Of the home run, but other than that, not really
- 8:07Speaker 1: a whole lot going on two thirty five batting average,
- 8:10Speaker 1: allowed six to thirty nine ops, so Noah Cameron does
- 8:14Speaker 1: have pretty good numbers there. Gavin Williams on the other side,
- 8:18Speaker 1: off to a good start this season as well. A
- 8:21Speaker 1: lot of strikeouts seventeen strikeouts to twelve innings is really good.
- 8:25Speaker 1: Way too many walks though, nine walks, so he's been
- 8:29Speaker 1: throwing hard, but he's been wild as well. Pretty impressive
- 8:32Speaker 1: though that he had a seven inning, ten strikeout shutout
- 8:35Speaker 1: in his last douning against the Dodgers, and maybe he
- 8:38Speaker 1: might take a little bit of a step back.
- 8:40Speaker 2: After a game like that.
- 8:42Speaker 1: This will be his first home start of the season, though,
- 8:45Speaker 1: and he is good against Kansas City, one hundred at
- 8:48Speaker 1: bats against them, one ninety batting average allowed five to
- 8:52Speaker 1: seventy seven ops, twenty two to nine. Strike out walk
- 8:55Speaker 1: ratio is not good. It's too many walks, but overall
- 8:58Speaker 1: his numbers are good. There, let me zoom in here.
- 9:03Speaker 1: I mean, my instinct on this was to maybe consider
- 9:06Speaker 1: an under here, But then you do have to look
- 9:08Speaker 1: at the bullpen usage here. Cleveland used three relief pitchers, yes,
- 9:12Speaker 1: and we do know, as I said, Kansas City's bullpen
- 9:14Speaker 1: has actually stunk this year so far.
- 9:17Speaker 2: They used two relief pitchers yesterday.
- 9:19Speaker 1: First five inning under could possibly be a look in
- 9:22Speaker 1: this game, but the total is really low already. It's
- 9:26Speaker 1: at six and a half juice to the over. You
- 9:28Speaker 1: might be able to find a seven out there. We
- 9:30Speaker 1: have fifty five percent of tickets in, ninety nine percent
- 9:32Speaker 1: of the cash on the over. I don't buy that
- 9:35Speaker 1: there actually is money coming in on the over in
- 9:37Speaker 1: this one to that extent, I think it's the game
- 9:41Speaker 1: looks like an under game to me. Based on the
- 9:43Speaker 1: matchup that we see here. You could make the argument
- 9:46Speaker 1: that both these pictures have some drawbacks, though, where Cameron
- 9:49Speaker 1: is still just maybe not totally established, and Williams is
- 9:53Speaker 1: too wild, so there are some issues there. Cleveland is
- 9:58Speaker 1: up to minus one fifteen SI six percent of tickets
- 10:00Speaker 1: on Cleveland, seventy seven percent of the cash on Kansas City,
- 10:04Speaker 1: so money indicating on Kansas City. You know, I think
- 10:08Speaker 1: my opinion on it is still probably under But to
- 10:10Speaker 1: take Kansas City's bullpen out maybe under first five innings,
- 10:13Speaker 1: but looking at it, a six and a half total
- 10:15Speaker 1: on the whole game and probably a three in the
- 10:18Speaker 1: first five innings, that worries me quite a bit because
- 10:20Speaker 1: you need, basically, you need a lot of things to
- 10:22Speaker 1: go right for that to hit.
- 10:24Speaker 2: So I don't love it. Next game up, Baltimore at
- 10:27Speaker 2: the White Sox.
- 10:28Speaker 1: The White Sox did take a loss yesterday in the series,
- 10:33Speaker 1: two to one, in what was kind of a letdown spot,
- 10:36Speaker 1: if you want to call it that, because the White
- 10:37Speaker 1: Sox had swept Toronto in.
- 10:40Speaker 2: The previous series.
- 10:43Speaker 1: As far as what these teams did yesterday, the White
- 10:46Speaker 1: Sox use two relief pitchers Baltimore used three. Based on
- 10:50Speaker 1: what these teams have done this season so far, neither
- 10:54Speaker 1: bullpen has been particularly good. I don't even see where
- 10:58Speaker 1: Baltimore is actually we're is actually am I wrong about that?
- 11:01Speaker 2: Where's Baltimore at? Yeah, my apologies.
- 11:06Speaker 1: Yeah, Baltimore's like a mid tier bullpen this year so far,
- 11:10Speaker 1: White Sox have been fairly bad as far as the hitting.
- 11:13Speaker 1: I think we know Baltimore's offense is better. White Sox
- 11:16Speaker 1: near the bottom of the pack. Baltimore kind of a
- 11:19Speaker 1: mediocre offense there, so keeping all that in mind, Baltimore
- 11:24Speaker 1: probably does have the slight edge in both those departments.
- 11:27Speaker 1: Trevor Rodgers is pitching for Baltimore. He's off to another
- 11:31Speaker 1: good start here man, although he did have four walks
- 11:34Speaker 1: in his opener, which is not that great. But he's
- 11:38Speaker 1: only allowed two runs and two starts of the season
- 11:40Speaker 1: so far, so obviously that's good.
- 11:42Speaker 2: But he faced week offenses Minnesota.
- 11:45Speaker 1: Texas White Sox is still a weak offense too.
- 11:49Speaker 2: Still, his walk number is a little bit of a concern, although.
- 11:51Speaker 1: Most of that happened in his first outings, so maybe
- 11:54Speaker 1: that doesn't mean that much. He pitched well last year.
- 11:57Speaker 1: He was really good at home last year. He is
- 12:00Speaker 1: on the road here, but he was still very good
- 12:01Speaker 1: on the road too last year. And the White Socks
- 12:04Speaker 1: haven't even seen much of him. They're only one for five,
- 12:06Speaker 1: often with two strikeouts, no walks, and no extra base hits.
- 12:10Speaker 2: So Rogers is good and unfamiliar against the White Sox,
- 12:14Speaker 2: so he looks like he does set up pretty well here.
- 12:18Speaker 1: Shane Smith is pitching for the White Sox. He's off
- 12:21Speaker 1: to a horrible start this season. He got absolutely lit
- 12:25Speaker 1: up in his last outing by Miami. I mean, Miami's
- 12:28Speaker 1: been hitting well this season, surprisingly, but not a good
- 12:31Speaker 1: start at all for Smith here, more walks than strikeouts
- 12:35Speaker 1: on the season so far. He was significantly better than
- 12:38Speaker 1: this last year. So I'm not ready to say that,
- 12:41Speaker 1: oh Smith, this is all of a sudden just gonna
- 12:42Speaker 1: be awful. But his numbers against Baltimore are quite bad
- 12:47Speaker 1: in only nineteen at bats. It's a small sample, but
- 12:50Speaker 1: for twenty one average a lot one thousand and two
- 12:53Speaker 1: sixty six ops. Those are some real bad numbers there, man.
- 12:59Speaker 1: So yeah, I think Baltimore pretty much kind of has
- 13:03Speaker 1: an edge throughout this game. So I like Baltimore in
- 13:05Speaker 1: this one. They're sitting at minus one thirty five. I
- 13:08Speaker 1: know they did win yesterday, but to me, it seems
- 13:11Speaker 1: like they have basically every advantage in this game, except
- 13:14Speaker 1: that they use more pitchers yesterday and out of the bullpen,
- 13:17Speaker 1: but not by much so. I think the bullpens are
- 13:20Speaker 1: still a bit of a wash there. If you wanted
- 13:24Speaker 1: to go first five, you could do that too. You know,
- 13:27Speaker 1: I'm considering adding this one to my card. I don't know, man,
- 13:31Speaker 1: this is close. I'm thinking about it. I'm considering it
- 13:39Speaker 1: pretty heavily. Hold on, let me see what number we
- 13:41Speaker 1: can get on this, and then I'm gonna look. I'm
- 13:44Speaker 1: gonna look at the first five options as well.
- 13:48Speaker 2: Here. Let me see you real quick.
- 14:00Speaker 1: We seeing minus one thirty five here on the full game.
- 14:05Speaker 1: One book is hanging to minus one twenty five first five,
- 14:08Speaker 1: and all the other books are at like minus one
- 14:10Speaker 1: forty minus one forty five in the first five. That
- 14:13Speaker 1: is a weird number on the first five there, Uh, the.
- 14:17Speaker 2: Book that starts with a B.
- 14:19Speaker 1: That has limited me. They are, you know, not helping
- 14:23Speaker 1: themselves out too much here. You know, I don't see
- 14:30Speaker 1: why Baltimore's being that downgraded over the course of the
- 14:32Speaker 1: full game though, because I don't even think it's really
- 14:36Speaker 1: that much of a disadvantage to them.
- 14:40Speaker 2: You know what, Yeah, let's do it. I mean we have.
- 14:47Speaker 1: Smith is in bad form here, man, so let's do it.
- 14:49Speaker 1: Let's add another play. We'll add Baltimore and minus one
- 14:54Speaker 1: thirty five on the money line.
- 14:55Speaker 2: There we go.
- 14:56Speaker 1: We'll have two plays today. Why not knowing a knowing me.
- 15:00Speaker 1: It's gonna lose now though, of course, but yes, let's
- 15:03Speaker 1: go with Baltimore, all right. Next game up is my
- 15:09Speaker 1: other place. Are two players are both going in the afternoon, man,
- 15:14Speaker 1: Arizona and the Mets, And this is I think the
- 15:18Speaker 1: best bet. We're gonna limit this one to the first five.
- 15:24Speaker 1: We're gonna go Arizona first five. I'm recommending on the
- 15:28Speaker 1: plus half a run run line, which I found at
- 15:30Speaker 1: minus one fifteen. If you wanted to go money line,
- 15:33Speaker 1: you could do that too. You're probably looking at my
- 15:35Speaker 1: plus one twenty, you know, plus one thirty. Maybe if
- 15:39Speaker 1: you do that then it'll push if the game is
- 15:42Speaker 1: tied after the first five, you do it this way.
- 15:45Speaker 1: Arizona wins at the plus five here, but of course
- 15:49Speaker 1: you're paying a little.
- 15:50Speaker 2: Bit more to do it this way.
- 15:53Speaker 1: Now, these two teams both didn't play yesterday. But obviously
- 15:57Speaker 1: you know from listening to me, I hate Arizona's bullpen
- 15:59Speaker 1: so I'm just gonna throw them out of the equation.
- 16:02Speaker 2: The Mets have the better bullpen.
- 16:04Speaker 1: The Mets offense has actually been better than Arizona's this
- 16:06Speaker 1: year or too, although Arizona's one strength really is their offense.
- 16:10Speaker 1: But I like how this sets up for Arizona Situationally,
- 16:14Speaker 1: the Mets are returning on from a road trip, or
- 16:17Speaker 1: they went to the Pacific Coast. They won the last
- 16:19Speaker 1: three games against San Francisco, so I don't like that
- 16:22Speaker 1: they're traveling cross country. I don't like when teams are
- 16:24Speaker 1: returning on from road trips. They got to get back
- 16:26Speaker 1: to home life. They could be a bit distracted. They
- 16:29Speaker 1: might be feeling high, you know, because they just had
- 16:32Speaker 1: a really good series against the Giants. Possibly the overlook Arizona.
- 16:37Speaker 1: And on the Arizona side, they're starting a road trip here,
- 16:39Speaker 1: which I think is more of a focused spot. But
- 16:41Speaker 1: they're actually coming in with momentum too, because they did
- 16:43Speaker 1: win the last two games against Atlanta. So Arizona's playing
- 16:47Speaker 1: okay and starting a road trip, so I like that
- 16:50Speaker 1: to be a focused spot, which I think may show
- 16:52Speaker 1: up earlier in the game as well. But really I
- 16:55Speaker 1: just want to throw the bullpens out here. Now we're
- 16:59Speaker 1: looking at the starting pitching matchup. I mean, you would
- 17:01Speaker 1: think that the Mets have a pretty clear edge in
- 17:04Speaker 1: the starting pitching matchup here, but if you dig into
- 17:07Speaker 1: the matchup, that's actually not the case. Zach Gowan is
- 17:10Speaker 1: pitching for Arizona, and while I don't love him and
- 17:12Speaker 1: he's not.
- 17:13Speaker 2: Striking out a lot of guys so far this year, he.
- 17:16Speaker 1: Is coming off a six inning shutout against Detroit, I
- 17:19Speaker 1: think he's not quite as bad as he looked last season.
- 17:23Speaker 1: He didn't have like extreme splits, I don't think, or
- 17:26Speaker 1: anything like that, so I'm not too worried about that. Yeah,
- 17:30Speaker 1: I mean, he was just kind of not great either
- 17:32Speaker 1: way last year. But he looks to me in okay
- 17:34Speaker 1: form right now. And his numbers against the Mets are
- 17:38Speaker 1: actually good. Believe it or not, let me see here. Yeah,
- 17:45Speaker 1: So in seventy at bats, he's held the Mets to
- 17:47Speaker 1: two fourteen average, six fourteen ops, seventeen to seven strike
- 17:51Speaker 1: a walk ratio is not that good, but the rest
- 17:53Speaker 1: of these numbers are pretty good. So I think Gwen
- 17:56Speaker 1: could actually be decent here under the radar. Maybe Freddy Parolta,
- 18:01Speaker 1: I'm not gonna deny that he's good. Everybody knows he's good.
- 18:04Speaker 1: He's better than his era looks so far to start
- 18:06Speaker 1: the season. He's got a lot of strikeouts, that's all good,
- 18:09Speaker 1: fourteen to two strike a walk ratio so far. But
- 18:12Speaker 1: he's faced some weakish offenses in Pittsburgh and Saint Louis especially,
- 18:17Speaker 1: so he's having a step up in class to face
- 18:19Speaker 1: Arizona here, which may not be the best. But looking
- 18:22Speaker 1: at his numbers against Arizona, they're not good. In seventy
- 18:25Speaker 1: seven at bats, twenty two to nine strike a walk
- 18:28Speaker 1: ratio that's not even really that good, but two ninety
- 18:31Speaker 1: nine batting average allowed, nine to seventy seven ops. Those
- 18:35Speaker 1: are not good stats for Paro Alta man. So yeah,
- 18:39Speaker 1: I like it. I think there's some value looking at
- 18:41Speaker 1: Arizona in this one man. So that's what we're gonna do.
- 18:44Speaker 1: The money seems like it agrees. The Mets are all
- 18:46Speaker 1: the way up to minus one fifty two, seventy five
- 18:48Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the Mets, fifty two percent of
- 18:51Speaker 1: the cash on Arizona. We're doing it first five because
- 18:54Speaker 1: I just I can't get there with Arizona's bullpen I
- 18:58Speaker 1: wouldn't disagree with Arizona in the full game as well,
- 19:02Speaker 1: but I think the biggest advantage is in the first
- 19:04Speaker 1: five because their bullpen just absolutely reeks.
- 19:08Speaker 2: So that's what we're gonna do there.
- 19:11Speaker 1: And those are the two plays. We're already We're already done.
- 19:13Speaker 1: So everybody's just gonna leave now. Nobody's even in the
- 19:15Speaker 1: chat this morning. But because college basketball is over, so
- 19:18Speaker 1: nobody cares anymore. All right, let's let's get through the
- 19:24Speaker 1: rest of these games here, man, we have hold on,
- 19:27Speaker 1: I'm gonna close. I got an extra window open here,
- 19:30Speaker 1: all right. There we go, Cubs at Tampa Bay. And
- 19:34Speaker 1: by the way, Arizona Mets both bullpen's arrested in that game.
- 19:38Speaker 1: So I mean, if you wanted to try to make
- 19:40Speaker 1: an argument for an under, I guess that would play
- 19:42Speaker 1: into that a little bit. But again, Arizona's bullpen absolutely stinks.
- 19:47Speaker 1: Tampa Bay beat the Cubs yesterday, so good win for
- 19:50Speaker 1: Tampa Bay yesterday. Bullpen usage, I believe Tampa's bullpen's been
- 19:56Speaker 1: pretty bad to start the season.
- 19:58Speaker 2: If I'm not mistaken.
- 19:59Speaker 1: They use four relief pitchers yesterday, the Cubs used two.
- 20:02Speaker 1: So the Cubs bullpen I think does have an advantage here. Yeah,
- 20:08Speaker 1: Tampa Bay has been a bottom third bullpen so far,
- 20:10Speaker 1: Cubs middle of the pack, so that's not good. Tampa
- 20:13Speaker 1: Bay has had a pretty good offense, though, but I
- 20:16Speaker 1: don't think the Cubs offense is really even worse than their's.
- 20:19Speaker 1: It has been the case this season so far that
- 20:22Speaker 1: Tampa has hit a lot better than the Cubs, though,
- 20:24Speaker 1: though I think that is going to even out to
- 20:26Speaker 1: some extent during the season. I don't really buy that
- 20:29Speaker 1: Tampa has a significantly better offense or anything like that.
- 20:33Speaker 1: Starting pitching here, though, Javier assad is going for the Cubs,
- 20:38Speaker 1: the ruler that got ousted from Syria.
- 20:42Speaker 2: Asad. He's actually Mexican, believe it or not. He's been decent.
- 20:48Speaker 1: Throughout his career, pretty much not great, but serviceable. Pitcher
- 20:52Speaker 1: hasn't made a start yet this year, and that might
- 20:54Speaker 1: be a little bit of a disadvantage because I think
- 20:56Speaker 1: guys that already have a start or two under their
- 20:58Speaker 1: belt actually a little bit of an advantage over pitchers
- 21:02Speaker 1: that haven't made a start yet this season, just because
- 21:05Speaker 1: they kind of have to get back into the swing
- 21:07Speaker 1: of things, and you know, Asad somewhat of a mediocre pitcher.
- 21:11Speaker 1: His numbers against the Rays are alright in twenty six
- 21:14Speaker 1: at bats to thirty one average, seven to one ops allowed,
- 21:18Speaker 1: but four to five strike out walk ratio is not good,
- 21:21Speaker 1: so he's not really a strikeout guy. But that's kind
- 21:23Speaker 1: of too many walks there. He's going up against Drew Rasmussen,
- 21:27Speaker 1: who is a solid pitcher for Tampa, but again, as
- 21:30Speaker 1: I point out, they always have him go five innings
- 21:32Speaker 1: like exactly, so they will have to turn it over
- 21:35Speaker 1: to their questionable bullpen at some point. Rasmussen is usually
- 21:39Speaker 1: pretty good while he's in there, though he's had good
- 21:42Speaker 1: commands so far this year ten strikeouts, one walk. He's
- 21:45Speaker 1: done well when both of his starts allowed one run
- 21:47Speaker 1: in each of them, both on the road, one against
- 21:50Speaker 1: a good Brewer lineup. Going up against the Cubs, his
- 21:55Speaker 1: numbers are kind of all over the place though thirty
- 21:57Speaker 1: seven at bats six seven strikeout walk ratio not good.
- 22:01Speaker 1: Bregman has two of them runs off him, so even
- 22:04Speaker 1: though he's allowed the two forty three batting average nine
- 22:07Speaker 1: oh four ohps is a little bit bad, so I
- 22:10Speaker 1: mean more than a little bit bad, So I worry
- 22:12Speaker 1: a little bit about that from Rasmussen. Now, the money
- 22:15Speaker 1: is coming in on Tampa, and I think you have
- 22:18Speaker 1: to give Rasmus it a little bit of an edge
- 22:19Speaker 1: because he's pitched already this season and Assad has not
- 22:23Speaker 1: uh fifty four percent of tickets eighty three percent of
- 22:25Speaker 1: the cash on Tampa.
- 22:27Speaker 2: I don't trust Tampa's bullpen.
- 22:29Speaker 1: If I was gonna go Tampa here where the money
- 22:31Speaker 1: is indicating right now on Tampa, I would probably limit
- 22:34Speaker 1: it to the first five because you know you're gonna
- 22:36Speaker 1: get specifically this starting pitching matchup. In the first five,
- 22:39Speaker 1: you don't have to worry about the bullpens.
- 22:42Speaker 2: That's probably what I would do.
- 22:43Speaker 1: Actually, in that game, I'd probably have a slight lean
- 22:45Speaker 1: towards Tampa first five innings.
- 22:47Speaker 2: But you know, I don't know if I would go
- 22:50Speaker 2: money line, run line on it. Whatever, But.
- 22:54Speaker 1: You know, whatever you get the better price on. But again,
- 22:57Speaker 1: I worry about Rasmussen's numbers in the match up below
- 23:00Speaker 1: have been asad looks like his matchup numbers are a
- 23:02Speaker 1: little bit better. Cincinnati at Miami. Miami lost two to
- 23:08Speaker 1: nothing yesterday. It was a return home from beating the
- 23:12Speaker 1: Yankees in the final game against the Yankees, so Miami
- 23:14Speaker 1: could have been maybe in a bit of a letdown
- 23:16Speaker 1: spot yesterday. Miami has been really good to start the season,
- 23:19Speaker 1: but I think their numbers are skewed to some extent
- 23:22Speaker 1: by playing bad teams before they played the Yankees. Miamis
- 23:25Speaker 1: still sitting in the top ten in bullpen era or
- 23:28Speaker 1: bullpen whip, I should say, still sitting in the top
- 23:31Speaker 1: ten in offensive ops as well. Don't know if I
- 23:36Speaker 1: really buy that entirely though, but as of now, their
- 23:39Speaker 1: bullpen and their offense actually rank higher than Cincinnati's. Cincinnati's
- 23:45Speaker 1: going with Andrew Abbot on the mound. A decent pitcher,
- 23:48Speaker 1: his whip is a little bit high. He doesn't have
- 23:50Speaker 1: too many walks right now, nine to four strike a
- 23:52Speaker 1: walk ratio is not that great.
- 23:54Speaker 2: He had a questionable start.
- 23:55Speaker 1: Last time out against Pittsburgh, alloted four and runs three walks.
- 23:59Speaker 2: Not a great start from him.
- 24:01Speaker 1: Looking at his overall like career numbers, though, he is
- 24:03Speaker 1: a pretty strong pitcher. Numbers are good against Miami twenty
- 24:07Speaker 1: nine at bats two forty one average allowed, five eighty
- 24:10Speaker 1: eight ohps, seven to three strikeout walk ratio, So Abbott's
- 24:15Speaker 1: got pretty good numbers there. He's going up against the
- 24:17Speaker 1: resurgent Sandy Alcantra, who has looked really good in his
- 24:22Speaker 1: two starts so far. But you know they were against
- 24:25Speaker 1: Colorado and the White Sox, both at homes, so we
- 24:28Speaker 1: might have to dial it back a little bit. But
- 24:31Speaker 1: Alcondra looks like he might finally be back man. He
- 24:33Speaker 1: was like an excellent pitcher before he had his injury
- 24:36Speaker 1: issues and then never was really able to bounce back
- 24:39Speaker 1: from like the Tommy John and whatever. But his two
- 24:42Speaker 1: starts of this season have been great. He hasn't allowed
- 24:44Speaker 1: any runs at sixteen innings, twelve strikeouts, two walks, only
- 24:48Speaker 1: seven hits allowed. Now, his strikeout rate isn't like crazy
- 24:52Speaker 1: high or anything, but still his command has been good.
- 24:55Speaker 1: He's not allowing hits.
- 24:56Speaker 2: He's looked really, really good.
- 24:58Speaker 1: He's stepping it up a little bit to face a
- 25:00Speaker 1: Red's offense that is better than those two against them.
- 25:03Speaker 2: He's been pretty good though.
- 25:05Speaker 1: Seventy three at bats is twenty to six strike out
- 25:08Speaker 1: walk ratio, two forty seven average alloted six eighty seven ops.
- 25:11Speaker 1: So I think al Contra looks fine in this game
- 25:15Speaker 1: as well. I don't really disagree with the Miami side
- 25:18Speaker 1: and this one to bounce back from yesterday. And I
- 25:20Speaker 1: think Miami, based on what they've done so far this year,
- 25:23Speaker 1: we're giving them a little bit of a bullpen edge,
- 25:25Speaker 1: a little bit of a hitting edge as well, even
- 25:29Speaker 1: though they might not maintain that for the whole season. Cincinnati,
- 25:32Speaker 1: by the way, he used three relief pitchers just and
- 25:34Speaker 1: Miami only used one, so Miami does have a rested
- 25:38Speaker 1: bullpen coming into this as well. I think al Contra
- 25:41Speaker 1: just looks a little bit better right now, better form
- 25:43Speaker 1: than Abbott. So I don't really disagree with Miami eighty
- 25:47Speaker 1: eight percent of tickets, ninety eight percent of the cash
- 25:49Speaker 1: on them, they're up for minus one fifteen to minus
- 25:52Speaker 1: one thirty five. I also do not disagree with an
- 25:55Speaker 1: under in this game. Total is that that key number
- 25:59Speaker 1: seven in the full game, sixty five percent of tickets,
- 26:02Speaker 1: sixty one percent of the cash on the over, so
- 26:04Speaker 1: the money seems to be indicating a little bit towards
- 26:06Speaker 1: the under. I think you could get a pretty good
- 26:09Speaker 1: starting pitching match up here in this one, so I
- 26:11Speaker 1: don't want to put that on my card, but under
- 26:14Speaker 1: I think does make sense to me. In that game,
- 26:17Speaker 1: under first five inning kind of makes sense too, But
- 26:20Speaker 1: the bullpens are not that horrible in that one, and
- 26:22Speaker 1: they're not totally unrested or anything, so I don't really
- 26:24Speaker 1: hate the bullpens in that one. So do with that
- 26:28Speaker 1: information what you want, but you know, under could be
- 26:31Speaker 1: worth a look, dirty sock.
- 26:33Speaker 2: What's up? Thanks for hanging out.
- 26:37Speaker 1: San Diego at Pittsburgh is next. Actually I forgot to
- 26:39Speaker 1: look at this game, so my apologies. I'm gonna be
- 26:42Speaker 1: handicapping in on the fly here. Uh somehow I skipped
- 26:46Speaker 1: that because I was like, oh, I got to look
- 26:48Speaker 1: at the Red Sox. Pittsburgh just lost five to nothing
- 26:51Speaker 1: yesterday and the opener of this series. I think we
- 26:54Speaker 1: pretty much know San Diego has the better bullpen, but
- 26:57Speaker 1: their offense has been bad to start the I don't
- 27:00Speaker 1: know what just happened there bullpen you suggested a San
- 27:04Speaker 1: Diego used two relief pitchers didn't really use any other
- 27:07Speaker 1: better relievers, though.
- 27:11Speaker 2: Pittsburgh used more than that.
- 27:14Speaker 1: They used four, So I think you have to give
- 27:16Speaker 1: San Diego a bullpen edge here. I think they have
- 27:18Speaker 1: the better bullpen anyway. Their offense has really stunk so
- 27:23Speaker 1: far this year, though, so you might have to give
- 27:26Speaker 1: Pittsburgh a little bit of an offensive edge right now.
- 27:28Speaker 1: The way these offenses have been playing so far, pitching
- 27:33Speaker 1: looks like it's a good pitching matchup man, so like.
- 27:35Speaker 2: The total's really low because of that.
- 27:38Speaker 1: Nick Pavetta is pitching for San Diego here, but he's
- 27:42Speaker 1: been bad to start the season.
- 27:43Speaker 2: He was not that good on the road last year.
- 27:46Speaker 1: His era was a full run more than a full
- 27:49Speaker 1: run higher on the road last year that was still
- 27:51Speaker 1: in the threes. But he was like pretty much elite
- 27:54Speaker 1: at home last year and he was not quite that
- 27:56Speaker 1: on the road. So something to keep in mind there. Now.
- 28:00Speaker 2: His numbers don't look good on the season.
- 28:01Speaker 1: He had a bad start against Detroit, but he did
- 28:03Speaker 1: settle down with a good outing one hit, no runs
- 28:06Speaker 1: allowed against San Francisco and his most recent outing eight strikeouts,
- 28:10Speaker 1: two walks. But San Francisco has been really atrocious on
- 28:13Speaker 1: offense this year. That was in the picture friendly Petco
- 28:17Speaker 1: Park there as well. For San Diego Paveta though, he's
- 28:21Speaker 1: I mean, his numbers are kind of all over the
- 28:23Speaker 1: place against Pittsburgh ninety one at bats two PHO nine
- 28:26Speaker 1: batting average looks really good thirty one to eight strike
- 28:29Speaker 1: a walk ratio looks really good. Then you see he's
- 28:31Speaker 1: somehow a lot of eleven home runs to them, and
- 28:33Speaker 1: his ops allowed his eight point fifty five. I've never
- 28:36Speaker 1: really seen anything like exactly like that, where you don't
- 28:40Speaker 1: allow hits to this team, but every hit they get
- 28:42Speaker 1: is a home run. Basically, eleven out of the nineteen
- 28:45Speaker 1: hits they have against him are home runs. I've never
- 28:47Speaker 1: really seen a ratio like that. That's pretty insane. So,
- 28:52Speaker 1: you know, I don't know how trustworthy Pavetta is. Of
- 28:54Speaker 1: course he's going up against Paul Skans. I think you
- 28:57Speaker 1: have to give skeens the edge. Oh, but he has
- 28:59Speaker 1: a nine point five to three ERA this year.
- 29:01Speaker 2: Man.
- 29:02Speaker 1: Yeah, we know he had a really bad start in
- 29:03Speaker 1: his opener against the Mets, but he settled down pitch
- 29:07Speaker 1: well against Cincinnati after that, gave him one and run
- 29:10Speaker 1: in five innings. They haven't really ramped up his pitch
- 29:14Speaker 1: count yet this season, but Cincinnati hit her friendly ballpark.
- 29:17Speaker 2: Whatever.
- 29:17Speaker 1: He did fine in that outing. I mean, he's Paul
- 29:20Speaker 1: Skeens man. We know he's gonna be fine.
- 29:22Speaker 2: Uh.
- 29:22Speaker 1: And San Diego actually hasn't really seen him before. They
- 29:25Speaker 1: only have nine at bats off him, no extra race, hits,
- 29:28Speaker 1: two hits overall, three strikeouts, no walks. So Skeens has
- 29:33Speaker 1: some edges there, man where he's unfamiliar to most of
- 29:36Speaker 1: San Diego's lineup. But it looks like you're kind of
- 29:40Speaker 1: paying attacks for Skeens. Pittsburgh's dropped for minus what sixty
- 29:45Speaker 1: two to minus one fifty six here, seventy nine percent
- 29:48Speaker 1: of tickets seventy six percent of the cash on Pittsburgh,
- 29:50Speaker 1: So the money kind of coming in against Pittsburgh here.
- 29:55Speaker 1: You know, I still kind of lean to Pittsburgh, at
- 29:58Speaker 1: least in the first five innings.
- 29:59Speaker 2: They think Skiing does have the edge.
- 30:01Speaker 1: Over Pavetta here, so I probably would lean to Pittsburgh
- 30:04Speaker 1: in the first five. Don't love the bullpen as much there.
- 30:09Speaker 1: Total is low, Like I said, it's juiced under six
- 30:12Speaker 1: and a half. It was seven juiced to the under
- 30:14Speaker 1: at one point. Obviously, we have a pretty good pitching
- 30:17Speaker 1: matchup here, so you can make arguments for the under.
- 30:20Speaker 1: But I think, you know me, I like to try
- 30:22Speaker 1: to get that key number seven, even though I know
- 30:24Speaker 1: a lot of handicappers will tell you that's not the
- 30:26Speaker 1: way to look at it. Like if it's six and
- 30:28Speaker 1: a half. The odds makers are telling you this is gonna.
- 30:30Speaker 2: Be a really low scoring game.
- 30:33Speaker 1: And the betters will tell you that you should actually
- 30:36Speaker 1: bet under six and a half if you like the
- 30:38Speaker 1: under in that particular game. I don't do it, though,
- 30:41Speaker 1: because you're missing out of the key number. So you know,
- 30:44Speaker 1: I might even say, maybe find a way to pay
- 30:46Speaker 1: to get it up to seven, depending on what the
- 30:48Speaker 1: price is. Of course, this one, I think I would
- 30:52Speaker 1: just stay away, though. I actually worry about Pavetta a
- 30:55Speaker 1: little bit here, maybe a few concerns maybe with Pittsburgh's
- 30:58Speaker 1: bullpen as well, so you know, I think the best
- 31:02Speaker 1: way to approach that still is like Pittsburgh in the
- 31:05Speaker 1: first five though, in my opinion. But yeah, that's a
- 31:07Speaker 1: game I don't want any anything to do with. Really,
- 31:11Speaker 1: Milwaukee at Boston. The Red Sox lost again yesterday. They're
- 31:15Speaker 1: off to their worst start in team history, I think,
- 31:18Speaker 1: believe it or not. At two and eight, I you know,
- 31:21Speaker 1: I'm gonna jump off a bridge or something. Probably I'm
- 31:24Speaker 1: gonna burn my Red Sox hat man. This is just
- 31:28Speaker 1: I don't know what to tell you at this point.
- 31:30Speaker 1: Alex Cora needs to be fired because the Red Sox
- 31:33Speaker 1: have pretty good personnel on this team. Man, they have
- 31:36Speaker 1: a good roster talent wise, this should be a team
- 31:39Speaker 1: that's vying for a playoff position, and instead they're They
- 31:44Speaker 1: have the worst record in all of baseball. I mean,
- 31:46Speaker 1: you cannot be serious. They have major problems with fundamentals.
- 31:52Speaker 1: It all goes back to coaching. Man, Alex Cora is
- 31:55Speaker 1: absolute ass. I don't care if they want a World
- 31:58Speaker 1: Series with them at twenty eighteen.
- 32:00Speaker 2: I don't care. He like inherited all those players. Whatever.
- 32:04Speaker 2: They should get rid of him. They should fire Breslaw.
- 32:06Speaker 1: They should clean house with all the people like upper
- 32:10Speaker 1: management and the manager. Get rid of all of them,
- 32:13Speaker 1: you know what I mean. It's just so stupid, dude.
- 32:17Speaker 1: And you know I was correct about the Devers trade.
- 32:19Speaker 1: By the way, Devers absolute headcase and the Red Sox
- 32:22Speaker 1: got a good return for him. And then what do
- 32:24Speaker 1: they do, Oh yeah, they traded all those guys away.
- 32:27Speaker 1: They traded TIBs just to get absolute trash dustin May
- 32:31Speaker 1: for like two months last year. May is never gonna
- 32:34Speaker 1: be good again after Tommy John surgery or whatever.
- 32:38Speaker 2: May is horrible.
- 32:39Speaker 1: Tibbs is absolutely trashing or thrashing. I should say in
- 32:45Speaker 1: triple A for the Dodgers. Of course, what else is
- 32:49Speaker 1: new because the Dodgers obviously need more bats.
- 32:52Speaker 2: Absolutely ridiculous.
- 32:54Speaker 1: And then the Red Sox also traded away Harrison, although
- 32:57Speaker 1: I still think Durbin is gonna come around.
- 32:59Speaker 2: But Rrison looks good.
- 33:00Speaker 1: Too, and he was the other guy that got in
- 33:02Speaker 1: the Devers trade along with Hicks.
- 33:05Speaker 2: Hicks didn't turn out.
- 33:06Speaker 1: To be good, but those other two guys are good,
- 33:09Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm pissed. But anyway, we're looking at this
- 33:13Speaker 1: game here Red Sox and Milwaukee. Milwaukee has been good
- 33:17Speaker 1: to start the season on Milwaukee used three relief pitchers yesterday,
- 33:21Speaker 1: Red Sox used four, so I think Milwaukee does have
- 33:24Speaker 1: a bullpen edge here. Their bullpen's been a little bit
- 33:26Speaker 1: better than the Red Sox this season as well, though
- 33:29Speaker 1: not by a lot. They're both kind of middle of
- 33:30Speaker 1: the pack right now. Milwaukee's offense has been really good
- 33:35Speaker 1: top three offense, Red Sox middle of the pack offensively here,
- 33:38Speaker 1: so Milwaukee I think has a bullpen edge and an
- 33:41Speaker 1: offensive edge here. Jacob Mazerowski is pitching from the Brewers here.
- 33:47Speaker 2: The miss lay miss.
- 33:48Speaker 1: He's got a ridiculous strikeout rate already eighteen strikeouts in
- 33:52Speaker 1: eleven innings faced the White Sox at Tampa Bay. You know,
- 33:56Speaker 1: still not really sold on Tampa Bay's offense. We know
- 33:58Speaker 1: the White Sox offense not good. How well is he
- 34:01Speaker 1: gonna do against the Red Sox, I don't know. I mean,
- 34:04Speaker 1: he's still a little bit wild too. His walk rate
- 34:07Speaker 1: is high, but he really doesn't allow a lot of
- 34:10Speaker 1: hits and he gets a ton of strikeouts. He throws
- 34:12Speaker 1: real hard, so he's really hard to hit. Red Sox
- 34:15Speaker 1: have two hitters who have seen him before, we were
- 34:17Speaker 1: both in his division last year. They're one for four
- 34:21Speaker 1: with two walks, two strikeouts off him. But overall, the
- 34:25Speaker 1: Red Sox don't have a lot of experience against um
- 34:27Speaker 1: so That might be an extra edge for Mizierowski here
- 34:30Speaker 1: because the Red Sox have not faced and Garrett Crochet
- 34:33Speaker 1: is going to counter him for the Red Sox. Though
- 34:36Speaker 1: one of the Red sox two wins is with Garrett
- 34:39Speaker 1: Crochet on the mound.
- 34:40Speaker 2: He's been good to start the season, more.
- 34:42Speaker 1: Strikeouts than innings pitched, fifteen to two strike out walk ratio.
- 34:46Speaker 2: All good stuff there.
- 34:47Speaker 1: He got a little bit unlucky in his last starting
- 34:49Speaker 1: against Houston. We know Houston's been great offensively so far somehow, so.
- 34:56Speaker 2: Whatever, but he hits.
- 34:58Speaker 1: Crochet had seven strike ups no walks in that game,
- 35:01Speaker 1: so it's not like he was awful. He got unlucky
- 35:03Speaker 1: with the fact that five runs scored off a six
- 35:06Speaker 1: hits in that one in one unearned run in that
- 35:09Speaker 1: mix there as well. We know Crochet is really good
- 35:12Speaker 1: though his numbers are good against the Brewers as well,
- 35:14Speaker 1: and thirty two at bats eleven to two strike out
- 35:17Speaker 1: walk ratio one eighty eight batting average allowed for eighty
- 35:20Speaker 1: five ohps allowed. I think the way to look at
- 35:24Speaker 1: this game is an under in some way the money
- 35:27Speaker 1: is coming in that way, it looks like, well, it
- 35:30Speaker 1: dropped from seven and a half to seven juice both
- 35:32Speaker 1: juiced to the under, but sixty four percent of tickets
- 35:35Speaker 1: eighty four percent of the cash on the over. I
- 35:38Speaker 1: don't buy that as far as the money coming in
- 35:40Speaker 1: on the over, maybe that it dropped down to seven,
- 35:42Speaker 1: but I would go under in this one. But the
- 35:45Speaker 1: bullpens might be a little bit of a concern.
- 35:48Speaker 2: UH. Fenway Park maybe a bit of a concern as well. UH.
- 35:52Speaker 1: The fact that these offenses could potentially hit, maybe a
- 35:56Speaker 1: little bit of a concern, but I think good pitching
- 35:58Speaker 1: does overcome good hitting. Usual first five inning under might
- 36:03Speaker 1: make sense here, so you don't have to worry about
- 36:06Speaker 1: the bullpens. But you do get that key number seven
- 36:09Speaker 1: in the full game. So yeah, under in some way
- 36:12Speaker 1: makes sense to me. Maybe first five, but you're looking
- 36:14Speaker 1: at like a three probably in the first five innings.
- 36:17Speaker 1: So I don't want to put that on my card
- 36:19Speaker 1: or anything, but do with that information what you want.
- 36:21Speaker 1: But I think it looks like an under game. The
- 36:24Speaker 1: money is also coming in on the Red Sox. For
- 36:26Speaker 1: what it's worth, sixty percent of the cash on the
- 36:28Speaker 1: Red Sox, fifty nine percent of tickets on Milwaukee.
- 36:31Speaker 2: We know the public likes the team with.
- 36:32Speaker 1: The better record, the team that has the better offense,
- 36:34Speaker 1: that is Milwaukee. You might be able to argue that
- 36:37Speaker 1: Crochet has a little bit of an edge in the
- 36:39Speaker 1: starting pitching just because he's the more proven pitcher. If
- 36:45Speaker 1: you want to make that argument and go with the
- 36:47Speaker 1: market read there on the Red Sox. I would probably
- 36:49Speaker 1: limit it to the first five innings, though, because you
- 36:52Speaker 1: might have to pay a little bit more for that.
- 36:53Speaker 1: But I don't really trust what we have going on
- 36:56Speaker 1: with the bullpen right now. So Waukee's has been a
- 37:00Speaker 1: bit better, So I you know, things to keep in
- 37:03Speaker 1: mind in that game Saint Louis and Washington, this is
- 37:06Speaker 1: a terrible matchup between two terrible teams. Washington did win
- 37:10Speaker 1: yesterday in a high scoring game. I leaned towards Washington
- 37:13Speaker 1: in that game yesterday. These teams are both bad. I
- 37:16Speaker 1: think both bullpens stink. Saint Louis used four relieve pitchers yesterday,
- 37:20Speaker 1: Washington only used two. So maybe Washington actually has a
- 37:24Speaker 1: bullpen edge just because of the rest.
- 37:27Speaker 2: Both bullpens I think have been pretty bad. Where are
- 37:30Speaker 2: the Cardinals here Washington?
- 37:32Speaker 1: Oh yeah, they're both bottom three bullpens in baseball right
- 37:36Speaker 1: now based on WHIP so and Washington's, believe it or not,
- 37:39Speaker 1: is slightly better in WHIP. Both offenses I think have
- 37:43Speaker 1: been bad as well. We're really looking here. Actually, why
- 37:49Speaker 1: do I keep saying that, dude, Washington their top four
- 37:52Speaker 1: offense at ops right now? I don't think that's really
- 37:54Speaker 1: gonna continue. But I don't know how that's really the case.
- 37:57Speaker 1: And then Saint Louis is somewhere in the mid tier.
- 38:02Speaker 1: I want to say, yeah, they're nineteenth in ops so far.
- 38:07Speaker 1: Very strange to see that Washington has had the better
- 38:10Speaker 1: offense so far though. Looking at the starting pitching here,
- 38:14Speaker 1: Matthew Libratore for the Cardinals here, he's been pretty good
- 38:19Speaker 1: this season. You know, he's allowed one A and run
- 38:22Speaker 1: and each of his starts so far against Tampa has
- 38:24Speaker 1: been hitting pretty well and the Mets, who we know
- 38:27Speaker 1: have a pretty good offense. Libratrea does not strike guys
- 38:30Speaker 1: out though he only has a four to three strike
- 38:32Speaker 1: out walk ratio, so the strikeout rate is really low.
- 38:36Speaker 2: That's a concern with him.
- 38:37Speaker 1: He's just not He's not really a guy that goes
- 38:39Speaker 1: in and blows people away. But he pitches, you know,
- 38:43Speaker 1: to contact, whatever I think, and if he's able to
- 38:46Speaker 1: get light contact, he's able to eat up some innings
- 38:49Speaker 1: and get some guys out. Eighteen at bats in his
- 38:52Speaker 1: career against Washington's six to one strike out walk ratio
- 38:56Speaker 1: two twenty two average allowed seven O eight ops, So
- 39:01Speaker 1: those are okay numbers against Washington. Cade Cavali is pitching
- 39:05Speaker 1: for Washington. Era looks really good for him so far,
- 39:08Speaker 1: as whip.
- 39:09Speaker 2: Not quite there. I mean, he's walked too many guys.
- 39:13Speaker 1: He's only gone nine to two thirds innings so far
- 39:15Speaker 1: and two starts been in eight to five strike a
- 39:17Speaker 1: walk ratio that does concern me a bit, But you
- 39:21Speaker 1: gotta give him credit because he has played against the
- 39:23Speaker 1: Cubs and Philly both on the road and did okay.
- 39:27Speaker 1: And both those starts actually did well, I would say
- 39:30Speaker 1: in the Philly game six innings along one on run,
- 39:33Speaker 1: So maybe Cavally's not that bad. The Cardinals are gonna
- 39:37Speaker 1: be the weakest offense that he's faced so far, and
- 39:40Speaker 1: they've never faced him before, so he does have a
- 39:42Speaker 1: little bit of an edge there having not having been
- 39:44Speaker 1: seen before by the Cardinals. So you know, I honestly
- 39:51Speaker 1: I don't hate Washington in this game. And that is
- 39:53Speaker 1: seemingly where the market is kind of indicating right now.
- 39:56Speaker 1: Saint Louis sixty two tickets, sixty one percent of the
- 39:59Speaker 1: cash on them. It looks like the public wants nothing
- 40:02Speaker 1: to do with Washington, even though Washington has more wins
- 40:05Speaker 1: that you would than you would expect so far this season. Yes,
- 40:09Speaker 1: so Washington up from minus one of five to minus
- 40:11Speaker 1: won twelve.
- 40:12Speaker 2: There. I probably agree with Washington in that one.
- 40:16Speaker 1: If you want to do it, maybe go first five innings,
- 40:19Speaker 1: because again.
- 40:19Speaker 2: I still don't trust the bullpen.
- 40:21Speaker 1: I don't trust either bullpen though, so in Washington is
- 40:24Speaker 1: more rested, so I'm not really gonna disagree with Washington
- 40:27Speaker 1: on the full game either, you know. So that would
- 40:31Speaker 1: be my thought on that A's at the Yankees. I
- 40:35Speaker 1: almost wanted to make a play in this one. These
- 40:36Speaker 1: two teams did not play yesterday, so we have more
- 40:40Speaker 1: rested bullpens here. Yankees have had the better bullpen though
- 40:44Speaker 1: Yankees bullpen has actually been really good I think this
- 40:47Speaker 1: season so far.
- 40:49Speaker 2: Wait where are they other tenth?
- 40:51Speaker 1: So that's not horrible, though the A's have been the
- 40:55Speaker 1: literally the worst bullpen and whip on the in all
- 40:59Speaker 1: of baseball, So there is a.
- 41:00Speaker 2: Bullpen edge for the Yankees here.
- 41:03Speaker 1: I think the A's have talent in their offense and
- 41:05Speaker 1: they are starting to hit a little bit.
- 41:06Speaker 2: But the Yankees do have.
- 41:07Speaker 1: The better offense as well, so I think the Yankees
- 41:11Speaker 1: have a pretty big edge all around here.
- 41:14Speaker 2: Man.
- 41:14Speaker 1: To be honest, the starting pitching I think is very
- 41:17Speaker 1: lopsided towards the Yankees.
- 41:19Speaker 2: The Yankees are staying at home.
- 41:20Speaker 1: With a day off coming off a loss to Miami. Now,
- 41:23Speaker 1: sometimes when you lose a win streak, it'll hang you over,
- 41:26Speaker 1: but losing is a favor to Miami. I mean, I
- 41:29Speaker 1: think it's more likely the Yankees bounce back here. As
- 41:33Speaker 1: far as the A's, I mean, the A's have not
- 41:35Speaker 1: been playing that well. They're starting a road trip against
- 41:37Speaker 1: the Yankees. They should be focused. But the A's are
- 41:40Speaker 1: also coming off a pretty big series win over Houston
- 41:43Speaker 1: in a big divisional series there, and they got Aaron
- 41:47Speaker 1: Savali going for them here. Savolling five innings pitched, and
- 41:53Speaker 1: his opener against the Braves did actually get the win
- 41:56Speaker 1: in that game. Touring runs a lot. He was decent,
- 41:58Speaker 1: three strikeouts, one walk. Savali, I mean he's an okay pitcher.
- 42:03Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not gonna say he's horrible, but his
- 42:05Speaker 1: numbers against the Yankees are not good. If I can
- 42:09Speaker 1: bring these up, Pare, let me say, yeah, fifty nine
- 42:11Speaker 1: at bats seventeen to four strike at walker ratio is good,
- 42:14Speaker 1: but they have a three h five average off him,
- 42:17Speaker 1: seven home runs off in one thousand, ninety five ohps.
- 42:21Speaker 1: Not good at all for Savali there. So the Yankees
- 42:24Speaker 1: look like they do have a pretty big edge against him,
- 42:26Speaker 1: and the edge gets bigger because Schlittler is pitching for
- 42:29Speaker 1: the Yankees, and he's been excellent to start the season.
- 42:32Speaker 1: He's been basically completely unhittable eleven to two thirds in
- 42:36Speaker 1: he's pitched so far, three hits, no walks, and fifteen strikeouts.
- 42:41Speaker 1: But you know, maybe you have to dial it back
- 42:44Speaker 1: a little bit because it was against San Francisco and Seattle.
- 42:47Speaker 2: Seattle was not hitting well at the beginning of the season.
- 42:50Speaker 1: San Francisco has been the worst offense in baseball so far,
- 42:53Speaker 1: and both of those were pitcher friendly ballparks, which Yankee
- 42:56Speaker 1: Stadium is not.
- 42:57Speaker 2: But I think we have to admit Schlittler is legitler.
- 43:02Speaker 1: Let's say, I don't want to say anything good about
- 43:04Speaker 1: the Yankees, but obviously Schlittler is good, There's no question
- 43:08Speaker 1: about that. And he's going up against what are we
- 43:11Speaker 1: talking about, the A's here. The A's have never faced
- 43:15Speaker 1: it before, so I think Schlitzler has another edge there,
- 43:17Speaker 1: these young talented pitchers that haven't been seen before by
- 43:20Speaker 1: the opposing lineups.
- 43:22Speaker 2: Usually I have an advantage.
- 43:23Speaker 1: The only way that I could play this game is
- 43:25Speaker 1: to find some way to play the Yankees here. I mean,
- 43:27Speaker 1: you know you're gonna have to pay a tax on
- 43:29Speaker 1: them though they're up to minus two twenty for minus
- 43:31Speaker 1: one ninety five, ninety seven percent of tickets ninety nine
- 43:34Speaker 1: percent of the cash.
- 43:35Speaker 2: On the Yankees. Don't love it.
- 43:37Speaker 1: They're seriously public, but I just don't see them losing
- 43:40Speaker 1: this game. If you wanted to go run line on
- 43:42Speaker 1: the Yankees, I know a lot of professionals will tell
- 43:45Speaker 1: you not to do that with the home team because
- 43:47Speaker 1: if they're winning, they won't get to bat again in
- 43:49Speaker 1: the ninth inning, So if they're winning by one at
- 43:51Speaker 1: that point, you're gonna lose your bet. Yeah, yeah, I
- 43:53Speaker 1: know the whole thing. We did it once this year
- 43:55Speaker 1: and gotta win with the Cubs. I'll occasionally do it.
- 43:59Speaker 1: This might be one spot where I would because I
- 44:01Speaker 1: think the Yankees do have that much of an advantage.
- 44:03Speaker 1: I would not disagree with laying the run line with
- 44:06Speaker 1: the Yankees in this one at the minus one and
- 44:08Speaker 1: a half. If you want to find another way to
- 44:11Speaker 1: do it, you know the A's to go under their
- 44:16Speaker 1: team total might make sense here because you got offenses
- 44:19Speaker 1: that didn't play yesterday, so the bats might be a
- 44:22Speaker 1: little bit cool. Schlitler might absolutely, he might come in
- 44:24Speaker 1: and just completely dominate, So you know, I mean, a's
- 44:28Speaker 1: under their team total might make sense. I probably wouldn't
- 44:31Speaker 1: really disagree with Yankees over their team total either, but
- 44:34Speaker 1: that seems a little bit worse because again, the Bats
- 44:38Speaker 1: might have cooled off a little bit, and there is
- 44:39Speaker 1: the chance that Savali pitch is okay.
- 44:43Speaker 2: So yeah, I.
- 44:43Speaker 1: Think going with Schlittler to just wreck Oakland I think
- 44:47Speaker 1: is really the way to go in that one.
- 44:51Speaker 2: Garrett, what's up man? Mike Malone?
- 44:54Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the reason why North Carolina hired him
- 44:57Speaker 1: is because his daughter goes to you and see and
- 45:00Speaker 1: she plays I forget, she plays some sport at North
- 45:04Speaker 1: Carolina right now. Mike Malone, an NBA Championship winning coach
- 45:09Speaker 1: with the Denver Nuggets, was kind of surprised the Nuggets
- 45:13Speaker 1: got rid of them. I don't know, it'll be interesting
- 45:16Speaker 1: for North Carolina. I suppose you're a Braves fan as well.
- 45:20Speaker 1: All right, well, yeah, I guess Carolina doesn't have a
- 45:23Speaker 1: baseball team.
- 45:26Speaker 2: Braves.
- 45:27Speaker 1: I mean, they're they're doing better than than I thought
- 45:30Speaker 1: they would have started the season. I mean, what do
- 45:31Speaker 1: you want like profar is suspended for the season again.
- 45:35Speaker 1: The Braves office just isn't really that good and they
- 45:39Speaker 1: lost Ozoona over the offseason. You're killing it all right,
- 45:42Speaker 1: Hell yeah, We're on a six to one run here
- 45:45Speaker 1: on this show. After I was in a slump, I
- 45:47Speaker 1: broke the slump.
- 45:48Speaker 2: So there we go. All right, let's get this baseball done. Man.
- 45:50Speaker 1: Then I'm gonna take a break and then we have
- 45:52Speaker 1: a ton of NHL and NBA as well. But my
- 45:56Speaker 1: plays are already done. I already gave out my two plays.
- 45:59Speaker 1: They're in early baseball. So Dodgers at Toronto in the
- 46:03Speaker 1: World Series rematch. Toronto did not step up at all yesterday. Man,
- 46:09Speaker 1: just embarrassing losing again. I mean, the Dodgers are a
- 46:12Speaker 1: great team, they're the best team in the major leagues.
- 46:15Speaker 1: But fourteen to two, I mean, you lose fourteen to
- 46:18Speaker 1: two to anybody, that is totally embarrassing. You should get
- 46:22Speaker 1: a better performance out of Toronto here. But the problem
- 46:25Speaker 1: for them is, you know, they have another difficult matchup here. Man,
- 46:29Speaker 1: I mean, there's no let up with this Dodger team.
- 46:31Speaker 1: Dodgers only us two.
- 46:32Speaker 2: Relief pitchers yesterday as well. Toronto used four.
- 46:37Speaker 1: And by the way, I shouldn't mention that Yankees as
- 46:40Speaker 1: the bullpen's are rested as well because the teams didn't
- 46:43Speaker 1: play yesterday, so that does help the pitching a little
- 46:46Speaker 1: bit more as well there, like if you were to
- 46:48Speaker 1: want to go as under their team total or something there.
- 46:51Speaker 1: But yeah, Toronto's bullpen is in worse shape here. And
- 46:53Speaker 1: believe it or not, the Dodgers bullpen they've been a
- 46:56Speaker 1: top three bullpen and Whip so far this season. I
- 47:00Speaker 1: like Whip more than Era because it tells you how
- 47:02Speaker 1: many guys they are actually putting on base, so I
- 47:04Speaker 1: think it's more predictive. Dodgers' bullpen has been good man.
- 47:08Speaker 1: Toronto's has not really been that good. I think Toronto's
- 47:11Speaker 1: somewhere in the middle of the pack here where are
- 47:13Speaker 1: they at know they're actually bottom six that's not good.
- 47:17Speaker 2: So Dodgers do have a bullpen edge.
- 47:18Speaker 1: Dodgers have also been the best offense in all of baseball,
- 47:22Speaker 1: which is not surprising.
- 47:24Speaker 2: Toronto's been somewhere in the middle of the pack on.
- 47:26Speaker 1: Offense, I think, yeah, So Dodgers seem to have edges
- 47:32Speaker 1: pretty much all around here, and probably they do have
- 47:34Speaker 1: a starting pitching edge as well.
- 47:35Speaker 2: With Yamamoto on the mound.
- 47:37Speaker 1: I mean, we know he was really good in the
- 47:40Speaker 1: World Series last year.
- 47:42Speaker 2: He's been good to start this season.
- 47:43Speaker 1: Eight to one strike out walk raceiow didn't have a
- 47:46Speaker 1: lot of strikeouts in his last game against Cleveland and
- 47:48Speaker 1: they're not a good offense. But Yama Moto, I mean,
- 47:51Speaker 1: I don't really have any concerns with him. He's been
- 47:54Speaker 1: good against the Blue Jays and fifty one at bats
- 47:56Speaker 1: thirteen to one strike out walk ratio, one ninety six
- 47:59Speaker 1: batting average allowed, five h six obs. That's all really
- 48:02Speaker 1: good stuff, so his numbers are quite good there. He'll
- 48:06Speaker 1: be going up against Kevin Gossman. Gosman has actually been
- 48:09Speaker 1: really good to start the season, but granted he faced
- 48:12Speaker 1: the A's, who even though they have a talented young
- 48:15Speaker 1: roster there, the A's have not been hitting at all
- 48:17Speaker 1: this year and the Rockies putrid offense there, so Gosman
- 48:22Speaker 1: did have some easy matchups there, but still he absolutely
- 48:24Speaker 1: dominated them. He's got twenty one strikeouts and no walks
- 48:28Speaker 1: so far in twelve innings and he's only allowed three
- 48:31Speaker 1: hits in one on run, so he's been completely dominant
- 48:34Speaker 1: to start the season, but the Dodgers are gonna be
- 48:37Speaker 1: a little bit of a different animal.
- 48:38Speaker 2: His numbers against the Dodgers are okay.
- 48:40Speaker 1: You one hundred and nineteen at bats two twenty seven
- 48:43Speaker 1: average is good. Eight twenty six ops not that good.
- 48:47Speaker 1: Thirty six to fifteen strikeout walk ratio is also not
- 48:50Speaker 1: that good. Too many walks seven strikeouts allowed not good either.
- 48:55Speaker 1: Max Munsey does a lot of the damage. If you're
- 48:58Speaker 1: looking for player props, which I always recommend, hits plus
- 49:01Speaker 1: runs plus RBIs month. See is seven for twenty three,
- 49:04Speaker 1: often with two doubles, four home runs.
- 49:06Speaker 2: And six walks. So there's all that for you.
- 49:11Speaker 1: I think the Dodgers just have a little bit too
- 49:13Speaker 1: much of an edge here, man. I think the Dodgers
- 49:15Speaker 1: will win the game, but they're a very public side,
- 49:17Speaker 1: and they're laying minus one fifty four, so you could
- 49:20Speaker 1: argue maybe it's too much of a price to lay
- 49:22Speaker 1: with the Dodgers here. Eighty five percent of tickets, only
- 49:24Speaker 1: seventy percent of the cash on them. Not really a
- 49:27Speaker 1: side that I would really want to join in on
- 49:29Speaker 1: there with the public on them, the money not really
- 49:32Speaker 1: indicating the same way there, So it looks like Toronto
- 49:35Speaker 1: is kind of a public fade type of play there
- 49:38Speaker 1: where the money is actually coming in on them. But
- 49:39Speaker 1: I just don't see an advantage that they have other
- 49:42Speaker 1: than the fact that they should be in bounce back
- 49:44Speaker 1: mode and they still have World Series revenge on their
- 49:48Speaker 1: mind here. But the matchup really really worries me for Toronto.
- 49:52Speaker 1: They're like, I think the Dodgers have a matchup edge
- 49:55Speaker 1: in every phase of the game. So that's the problem
- 49:57Speaker 1: that I'm having with it, although that is why the
- 49:59Speaker 1: Dodgers are fit on the road.
- 50:00Speaker 2: Though. Was Gossman on the Braves? I don't.
- 50:04Speaker 1: I think I only remember him being on Baltimore and
- 50:06Speaker 1: then Tampa Bay.
- 50:07Speaker 2: I don't know where else he's been. Where has he been? Man?
- 50:11Speaker 1: Oh, by the way, I forgot to mention real briefly,
- 50:13Speaker 1: I was gonna say with that over that we won
- 50:15Speaker 1: yesterday with Colorado and uh Houston here that was the
- 50:19Speaker 1: type of game where you you might have wanted to
- 50:21Speaker 1: go action on it rather than Stardi. Pitchers must start,
- 50:25Speaker 1: although we got it right either way yesterday because Bolton
- 50:29Speaker 1: and felton Er were the list of starters and they
- 50:30Speaker 1: did both start. But if you thought that maybe Bolton
- 50:33Speaker 1: was gonna get pushed behind an opener or something. That's
- 50:37Speaker 1: when you actually want to make an action playing baseball
- 50:40Speaker 1: instead of the default, which is the list of starters
- 50:42Speaker 1: must start. Because when you do that approach usually it
- 50:46Speaker 1: makes sense because the starting pitchers are a big part
- 50:49Speaker 1: of your handicap usually, so usually, yes, you do want
- 50:52Speaker 1: to do it that way, and then if those starters
- 50:54Speaker 1: don't start, your bet will get voided. But in a
- 50:56Speaker 1: situation like this where you're playing it over and it's
- 50:59Speaker 1: basically because oh, the astros are just gonna go with
- 51:01Speaker 1: some mess of a game, basically like Bolton is either
- 51:05Speaker 1: gonna start or he might get shoved behind it opener,
- 51:07Speaker 1: and it doesn't really matter as far as the handicap.
- 51:10Speaker 1: That's the type of game where action actually makes more sense,
- 51:13Speaker 1: which means your bet is going to get accepted. Regardless
- 51:16Speaker 1: of who starts, the bet will count, you know what
- 51:19Speaker 1: I mean. So I forgot to mention that yesterday. All right,
- 51:27Speaker 1: I'm gonna look at Gossman.
- 51:28Speaker 2: Real quick here. Let me see.
- 51:30Speaker 1: Oh, yeah, that's right, he was on the brak. Yeah,
- 51:32Speaker 1: I don't remember any of that. I remember the Baltimore
- 51:35Speaker 1: thing because he was there for so long. I don't
- 51:37Speaker 1: even remember him being on the Braves two seasons. Then
- 51:39Speaker 1: he was briefly on Cincinnati and San Francisco for a
- 51:42Speaker 1: bit as well.
- 51:43Speaker 2: I don't remember any of that, manut.
- 51:45Speaker 1: Maybe I'm too much of an Al East guy, but
- 51:49Speaker 1: I basically just remember Baltimore, Toronto, all right.
- 51:52Speaker 2: Detroit at Minnesota. Minnesota got the win yesterday.
- 51:55Speaker 1: I was somewhat surprised by that, although Joe Ryan is
- 51:58Speaker 1: a good pitcher, but I thought to Detroit had some
- 52:01Speaker 1: advantages in that game, although Detroit was coming off a
- 52:04Speaker 1: night game in the the prior night, the Sunday night, which,
- 52:11Speaker 1: by the way, Washington had a little bit less of
- 52:13Speaker 1: an advantage over Saint Louis in their game even though
- 52:16Speaker 1: they won, and I was correct about Washington. Saint Louis
- 52:19Speaker 1: was coming off the night game as well and in
- 52:21Speaker 1: a letdown spot there. But Washington they had had to
- 52:24Speaker 1: play a rain delayed game that was like a two
- 52:26Speaker 1: hour delay, so they had played a little bit later
- 52:29Speaker 1: than expected as well, although still not as late as
- 52:31Speaker 1: Saint Louis did, and Saint Louis still had to travel,
- 52:34Speaker 1: so you know, it was still a disadvantage for Saint
- 52:36Speaker 1: Louis just maybe not totally as extreme anyway.
- 52:40Speaker 2: Detroit Minnesota. Still, I think Detroit is the better team here.
- 52:45Speaker 1: Man, Minnesota, I think they're a bad team. Their bullpen
- 52:49Speaker 1: is in the bottom third of bullpens. Detroit's more of
- 52:52Speaker 1: a mid tier bullpen right now. So Detroit does have
- 52:55Speaker 1: a better bullpen. Detroit mid tier offense so far, but
- 52:59Speaker 1: still better than the twin where I think close to
- 53:01Speaker 1: a bottom third offense as well. So Detroit does have
- 53:04Speaker 1: advantages here. And of course starting pitching wise, they have
- 53:07Speaker 1: an advantage as well, which I'm gonna talk about in
- 53:09Speaker 1: a second. Bull ben wise, Detroit only these two relievers
- 53:13Speaker 1: yesterday Minnesota used four, So you got to give Detroit
- 53:17Speaker 1: a bullpen edge here and starting pitching. Tark Schooble pitching
- 53:22Speaker 1: for a Detroit here. I mean, we know he's an
- 53:24Speaker 1: excellent pitcher. Strikeout rate not totally high yet this year,
- 53:28Speaker 1: but still he's got nine strikeouts, no walks in thirteen innings.
- 53:31Speaker 2: He's allowed one on and run. We know he's good. Man.
- 53:35Speaker 1: He's gonna have his first three starts all being on
- 53:37Speaker 1: the road, which is not great, but he's an elite pitcher,
- 53:41Speaker 1: so whatever. And his numbers are good against Minnesota as well.
- 53:44Speaker 1: In eighty three at bats, twenty seven to five strikeout
- 53:47Speaker 1: walk ratio one sixty nine average allowed, five fifty three
- 53:50Speaker 1: oh ps. No shocker there that he pretty much dominates Minnesota.
- 53:55Speaker 1: Taj Bradley pitching for Minnesota. He's been surprisingly good this season.
- 54:00Speaker 1: Twelve strikeouts in ten to the third innings, four walks.
- 54:04Speaker 1: I mean, that's very Bradley esque. He usually walks a
- 54:08Speaker 1: few too many guys. Usually he's a good strikeout guy,
- 54:11Speaker 1: but usually the guys that he puts on base, it
- 54:14Speaker 1: catches up with the man. He doesn't pitch that well
- 54:18Speaker 1: when that happens. But he has been good this year,
- 54:20Speaker 1: and Detroit has never seen him before except Torres is
- 54:23Speaker 1: over four off him with two strikeouts in a walk.
- 54:26Speaker 1: So Bradley does have a bit of an unfamiliarity age.
- 54:29Speaker 1: I guess Detroit just never played Tampa Bay when he
- 54:32Speaker 1: was pitching for them. I don't know, but both starting
- 54:35Speaker 1: pitchers are in good form right now. Unfamiliarity for Bradley
- 54:39Speaker 1: plus eliteness for school ball.
- 54:41Speaker 2: I like the under in this one, man.
- 54:44Speaker 1: I don't love the bullpens, though total is low at
- 54:47Speaker 1: seven Juice to the under, so it's headed towards six
- 54:50Speaker 1: and a half here. Although we have fifty percent of
- 54:52Speaker 1: tickets on the under seventy eight percent of the cash
- 54:54Speaker 1: on the over, maybe some money's starting to come in
- 54:57Speaker 1: on the over here. I would go under, but I
- 55:00Speaker 1: hate Minnesota's bullpen, dude, I really do. So under first
- 55:04Speaker 1: five innings would probably be my preference in this game,
- 55:06Speaker 1: but again, you're on that really slim margin there. We'd
- 55:09Speaker 1: have to get it to go under three, and I
- 55:11Speaker 1: still don't know if I fully trust Bradley, although the
- 55:14Speaker 1: matchup does look good for him there and his current
- 55:17Speaker 1: form is good, So first five inning under probably be
- 55:20Speaker 1: my lean in that one. Detroit, you're probably laying too
- 55:23Speaker 1: much of a price with them because school ball is
- 55:25Speaker 1: on the mound there minus what sixty six? They look
- 55:28Speaker 1: like they're a public side, but we don't really see
- 55:30Speaker 1: the percentages yet. But I would probably not try to
- 55:33Speaker 1: lay a price like that with Detroit or anything like that.
- 55:36Speaker 2: I don't want Minnesota either.
- 55:39Speaker 1: If you think there's value on Minnesota and wanted to
- 55:41Speaker 1: try to go with Minnesota to try to compete in
- 55:44Speaker 1: that game, I think I would stick to the first
- 55:46Speaker 1: five because they do not have a bullpen edge there.
- 55:50Speaker 1: If you think Bradley can somehow keep it close with
- 55:52Speaker 1: school ball, which maybe he can, maybe it makes sense
- 55:55Speaker 1: to go with like a first five run line, underdog
- 55:59Speaker 1: move on Minnesota, something like that. All right, Seattle at Texas,
- 56:05Speaker 1: this is going to be a pitcher friendly park here.
- 56:07Speaker 1: Both bullpens are good. Seattle's been I think a very
- 56:10Speaker 1: good bullpend this year, if I'm not mistaken. Let me
- 56:12Speaker 1: see what are we looking at here? Yeah, Seattle's second
- 56:15Speaker 1: in bullpen whips so far, Texas is seventh. So both
- 56:19Speaker 1: these bullpens were good last year. They're both good again
- 56:21Speaker 1: this year. The offenses Texas, believe it or not, has
- 56:25Speaker 1: been better so far than Seattle has, I think, but
- 56:29Speaker 1: I think that might turn around during the season. Like
- 56:32Speaker 1: I don't really Seattle's been the second worst offense in baseball,
- 56:36Speaker 1: and I know they play in a very picture friendly park,
- 56:38Speaker 1: but that's still kind of insane. So I don't really
- 56:42Speaker 1: think Seattle's offense is actually worse than Texas's. But right
- 56:45Speaker 1: now they are. Seattle kept their bull being rested again yesterday.
- 56:50Speaker 1: They will use two relief pitchers, so that's good for them.
- 56:53Speaker 1: Texas looks like they used six, although they used two
- 56:56Speaker 1: of them for only a little bit, So those guys
- 56:59Speaker 1: probably are ailbow again.
- 57:00Speaker 2: But probably you got to give Seattle a little bit.
- 57:03Speaker 1: Of a bullpen edge in this game. George Kirby pitching
- 57:06Speaker 1: for Seattle. He is not usually as good on the road,
- 57:09Speaker 1: though last year his ERA was almost two runs higher
- 57:12Speaker 1: on the road.
- 57:13Speaker 2: It was over five on the road, so that is
- 57:15Speaker 2: a concern with Kirby. He's not as good on the road.
- 57:19Speaker 1: He's been decent to start the season. He had an
- 57:22Speaker 1: iffy outing last time up, but it was against the Yankees.
- 57:24Speaker 2: Man, now, his numbers were good against the Yankees.
- 57:28Speaker 1: I think we lost on the under in that game,
- 57:30Speaker 1: unfortunately by one run, which kind of pisses me off.
- 57:35Speaker 1: Kirby had good numbers against the Yankees, but still it's
- 57:38Speaker 1: the Yankees.
- 57:38Speaker 2: We know they hit well.
- 57:40Speaker 1: Kirby was still pretty good in that game. But now
- 57:42Speaker 1: this is gonna be his first road game of the season.
- 57:45Speaker 1: That might be a concern. His numbers are good against
- 57:47Speaker 1: Texas though in ninety nine at bats really good thirty
- 57:50Speaker 1: two to four strikeout walk ratio two twenty two average
- 57:54Speaker 1: allowed five to thirty five ops Kirby does have good
- 57:57Speaker 1: numbers against Texas. Maybe not as concerned about it being
- 58:01Speaker 1: a road game because he is good against Texas and
- 58:03Speaker 1: Texas is still a pitcher friendly ballpark, so it's not
- 58:06Speaker 1: the worst match up.
- 58:09Speaker 2: The Kirby could have Here.
- 58:10Speaker 1: He's going up against Evaldi, who's been absolutely horrendous to
- 58:14Speaker 1: start the season. Evaldi's allowed five plus earned runs in
- 58:18Speaker 1: each of his out he's they're both on the road.
- 58:20Speaker 1: He does have a pretty good twelve to three strike
- 58:22Speaker 1: out walk ratio, though, so it looks like he's I
- 58:24Speaker 1: don't know, man, he's just getting hit really hard. I
- 58:27Speaker 1: don't know what's going on with him here, But I
- 58:29Speaker 1: don't know if he's like falling off a cliff. I mean,
- 58:31Speaker 1: he's not that old yet at thirty six, so I
- 58:34Speaker 1: expect him to start doing better at some point. I mean,
- 58:36Speaker 1: he was really good last year, maybe two good, but
- 58:40Speaker 1: you gotta think that he's gonna be somewhere between what
- 58:42Speaker 1: he was last year and what he's been this year
- 58:45Speaker 1: so far. At the very least, he's finally getting to
- 58:48Speaker 1: pitch at home, which is more pitcher friendly.
- 58:51Speaker 2: Against Seattle.
- 58:51Speaker 1: He does have good numbers in one hundred and thirteen
- 58:53Speaker 1: at bats, thirty three to seven, streke, a walk ratio
- 58:56Speaker 1: one ninety five, average allowed five seventy three oh ps.
- 58:59Speaker 1: So he has good numbers there. People are gonna look
- 59:02Speaker 1: at these pitchers and not want to touch the Evaldi.
- 59:06Speaker 1: The public's gonna come in on Seattle because of how
- 59:08Speaker 1: good Seattle was last year, because oh, big Dumper finally
- 59:12Speaker 1: hit a home run whatever, uh, he had his longest
- 59:16Speaker 1: home run drought of his career, I think, and finally
- 59:18Speaker 1: hit one. They're gonna see e eval these eras so far,
- 59:23Speaker 1: and I think the public is gonna want nothing to
- 59:25Speaker 1: do with Texas here, but maybe that means there's some
- 59:27Speaker 1: value there. Seattle's flipped to a minus one nineteen favorite,
- 59:31Speaker 1: but sixty six percent of tickets on them, fifty six
- 59:34Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Texas. So the money is
- 59:37Speaker 1: indicating on Texas total sitting at over seven and a.
- 59:40Speaker 2: Half juice to the over.
- 59:41Speaker 1: I mean sixty percent of tickets ninety six percent of
- 59:44Speaker 1: the cash on the over. I mean it underkind of
- 59:47Speaker 1: makes sense to me. In this game, I think you
- 59:48Speaker 1: have two pretty good bullpens. Starting pitching seems to match
- 59:52Speaker 1: up decently in this game. I think there is some
- 59:54Speaker 1: value on Evaldi here to not be as bad as
- 59:57Speaker 1: what he's shown so far this season, so under does
- 1:00:00Speaker 1: make sense to me. Here good bullpens as well. Like
- 1:00:02Speaker 1: I said, I would slightly lean to Texas. I think
- 1:00:06Speaker 1: Texas might be the stronger lean here, just because Kirby
- 1:00:09Speaker 1: again he is fadable on the road and Evaldi can't
- 1:00:12Speaker 1: possibly continue to be as bad as he has been
- 1:00:15Speaker 1: so far, So you might be getting a little bit
- 1:00:17Speaker 1: of value on Texas as a dog there, So that
- 1:00:21Speaker 1: might be the way I would lean.
- 1:00:21Speaker 2: I wo'd worry a little bit about Texas bullpen.
- 1:00:24Speaker 1: I mean, if you wanted the Texas side a first
- 1:00:26Speaker 1: five inning play might be a little bit of a
- 1:00:28Speaker 1: better leen there as well.
- 1:00:30Speaker 2: But I don't want to touch that game.
- 1:00:31Speaker 1: Houston at Colorado, we were able to get the win
- 1:00:36Speaker 1: there yesterday with the over game finished nine to seven, which,
- 1:00:41Speaker 1: by the way, I forgot to mention Texas did beat
- 1:00:45Speaker 1: Seattle yesterday, by the way, I forgot to mention that. Anyway,
- 1:00:48Speaker 1: Colorado had an eight run fifth inning or something yesterday
- 1:00:52Speaker 1: and they were able to beat Houston with that and
- 1:00:55Speaker 1: hold on to the win. With Houston, Houston almost came
- 1:00:58Speaker 1: back and won that game. We might have another offensive
- 1:01:02Speaker 1: showing here, man. I mean it's course field. We know
- 1:01:04Speaker 1: that course field means more runs are gonna be scored,
- 1:01:07Speaker 1: usually because you're in high elevation. The pitching doesn't exactly
- 1:01:11Speaker 1: look great here. Houston's bullpen has been a mess this year.
- 1:01:14Speaker 1: I know Houston's been playing well, but their bullpen's been bad.
- 1:01:17Speaker 2: They only use two relief.
- 1:01:19Speaker 1: Pitchers yesterday though, so at least there's that Colorado used three.
- 1:01:22Speaker 2: But neither of these bullpens are good.
- 1:01:25Speaker 1: Houston's offense has been good to start the season, so
- 1:01:28Speaker 1: that is one thing that they do have.
- 1:01:29Speaker 2: They have the better offense in this matchup.
- 1:01:32Speaker 1: Starting pitching does concern me with Mike Burrows pitching for Houston. Yeah,
- 1:01:37Speaker 1: for Houston, he has not been good so far this season.
- 1:01:40Speaker 1: His strikeout rate's been good, more strike outs and innings pitch,
- 1:01:43Speaker 1: but five walks to go along with the twelve strike outs.
- 1:01:46Speaker 2: That's a concern.
- 1:01:47Speaker 1: He did pitch a bit better against the Red Sox,
- 1:01:50Speaker 1: game up torn runs in five innings there still had
- 1:01:53Speaker 1: three walks though in that one to six strike outs. Borrows,
- 1:01:56Speaker 1: I mean he's a decent young pitcher still, but I
- 1:02:00Speaker 1: don't think he's pitching course field before, so that might
- 1:02:02Speaker 1: be a little bit of a worry. Then now he
- 1:02:04Speaker 1: has to go there, and his numbers he get to
- 1:02:06Speaker 1: color out of his offense are actually not that good.
- 1:02:08Speaker 1: Thirteen at bats is a small sample, but three zero
- 1:02:11Speaker 1: eight batting average allowed, seven to eight ops.
- 1:02:14Speaker 2: Allowed, and four to two strike up walk ratio.
- 1:02:16Speaker 1: Those are not great numbers, so Borrows might struggle here.
- 1:02:20Speaker 1: Kyle Freeland is pitching for Colorado. He might be one
- 1:02:24Speaker 1: of their better pitchers. You're gonna see. Oh, he has
- 1:02:26Speaker 1: a two point nine to eighty RA so or two
- 1:02:28Speaker 1: point eight to ninety RA so far.
- 1:02:29Speaker 2: Yeah, that is pretty good.
- 1:02:31Speaker 1: His whip is a bit high though, close to one
- 1:02:34Speaker 1: point four, meaning he is putting too many men on base.
- 1:02:37Speaker 1: Both of his starts so far been on the road,
- 1:02:39Speaker 1: so he hasn't pitched a course field yet, so he
- 1:02:42Speaker 1: might take a little bit of a step back here
- 1:02:44Speaker 1: having to pitch in this environment. And Houston hits him
- 1:02:47Speaker 1: well in eighty four at bats ten to eight strike
- 1:02:50Speaker 1: up walk ratio, Christian Walker totally wrecks him thirteen for
- 1:02:54Speaker 1: forty one, three strikeouts, five walks, excuse me, three home runs,
- 1:02:58Speaker 1: three doubles, four strikeouts in five walks overall three twenty
- 1:03:04Speaker 1: one average for Houston off him in nine to forty
- 1:03:06Speaker 1: ohps Freeland. Yeah, not good numbers there. The starting pitching
- 1:03:11Speaker 1: doesn't look like it's set to do that well there.
- 1:03:13Speaker 1: Don't like the bullpens either. I think it over makes
- 1:03:16Speaker 1: sense again in that one. I'm not as strong on
- 1:03:19Speaker 1: the over there as I was in yesterday's game, but
- 1:03:21Speaker 1: it's at the same number ten and a half. It
- 1:03:23Speaker 1: looks like it's flipped in that direction. Eighty eight percent
- 1:03:27Speaker 1: of tickets on the over, ninety six percent of the
- 1:03:29Speaker 1: cash on the over.
- 1:03:30Speaker 2: I don't disagree with an over there.
- 1:03:32Speaker 1: Like I said, Houston dropped to minus one sixty two
- 1:03:35Speaker 1: on the money line for minus one seventy three.
- 1:03:38Speaker 2: They're a pretty heavy road favorite there.
- 1:03:40Speaker 1: Eighty five percent of tickets on them, seventy two percent
- 1:03:42Speaker 1: of the cash on Colorado. So money is indicating on Colorado.
- 1:03:47Speaker 1: I don't want to try to figure out the side
- 1:03:48Speaker 1: in that game at all, though the market is saying
- 1:03:50Speaker 1: that there's some value in Colorado. But my preference in
- 1:03:53Speaker 1: that game would be over again Atlanta for Garrett here,
- 1:03:57Speaker 1: Atlanta is at La or at Anaheim. I should so
- 1:04:00Speaker 1: yet at least they don't have to play the Dodgers.
- 1:04:02Speaker 1: But Anaheim did get the win yesterday. Anaheim is winning
- 1:04:06Speaker 1: more games than we would expect so far this season,
- 1:04:09Speaker 1: even though I don't think they're good the Angels.
- 1:04:12Speaker 2: Where are they at? Offensively? They're in the middle of
- 1:04:14Speaker 2: the pack.
- 1:04:15Speaker 1: On offense, the Braves haven't really been hitting that well.
- 1:04:18Speaker 1: As you said, I don't believe they have them. You
- 1:04:20Speaker 1: see where the Braves at? No, actually that's not I'm
- 1:04:23Speaker 1: looking at bullpen, my mistake. Atlanta's bullpen has been good.
- 1:04:27Speaker 1: In fact, they have the top bullpen in baseball so far,
- 1:04:30Speaker 1: both in ERA and in WHIP.
- 1:04:32Speaker 2: So Atlanta really good in bullpen. Yeah, that's right.
- 1:04:34Speaker 1: Anaheim's bullpen middle of the pack. But I think Anaheim's
- 1:04:38Speaker 1: bullpen is actually pretty lousy. So Atlanta does have a
- 1:04:41Speaker 1: bullpen edge here. Offensively, Atlanta in ops is actually seventh
- 1:04:47Speaker 1: in baseball, so that's not bad. Anaheim is twenty first,
- 1:04:51Speaker 1: So I think you got to give Atlanta an offensive
- 1:04:54Speaker 1: edge here. Atlanta only is three relievers yesterday. That's fine,
- 1:04:58Speaker 1: not heavy usage. Anaheim not really either. They used two,
- 1:05:03Speaker 1: So bullpens are rested. But I think again, Atlanta has
- 1:05:06Speaker 1: a bullpen edge here. I think Atlanta does have the
- 1:05:09Speaker 1: hitting edge as well. They got Ronaldo Lopez pitching. He's
- 1:05:13Speaker 1: been good so far the season, but his strikeout rate's
- 1:05:16Speaker 1: been low. I think his velocity's down. I think he's
- 1:05:18Speaker 1: trying to come back from injuries and now he's in
- 1:05:20Speaker 1: his thirties and he's just he doesn't have his strikeout
- 1:05:23Speaker 1: stuff that he used to have, but he's still.
- 1:05:26Speaker 2: Finding ways to get out.
- 1:05:28Speaker 1: Playing against Kansas City and then against a bit of
- 1:05:30Speaker 1: a better Arizona lineup, he's only allowed one in run
- 1:05:33Speaker 1: and each of his starts, so that's pretty good. Even
- 1:05:35Speaker 1: though strikeout rate is down. Against Anaheim, those numbers have
- 1:05:39Speaker 1: not been good. In eighty eight at bests twenty five
- 1:05:42Speaker 1: to fourteen strike out walk ratio.
- 1:05:44Speaker 2: That's bad.
- 1:05:46Speaker 1: Jorgees Solaire has absolutely destroyed him thirteen for twenty two
- 1:05:51Speaker 1: with four home runs, three doubles, three to two strike
- 1:05:54Speaker 1: out walk ratio, So so'm going to keep in mind
- 1:05:56Speaker 1: there overall three h seven average in oneenty twenty five
- 1:06:00Speaker 1: ops allowed to Anaheim from Lopez, that's not good. He's
- 1:06:05Speaker 1: going up against, you, say, Kakuchi, who is off to
- 1:06:09Speaker 1: a bad start this season, a very bad eight to
- 1:06:11Speaker 1: five strike out walk ratio. He's allowed way more hits
- 1:06:14Speaker 1: than the innings, pitch a lot, a lot of runs
- 1:06:16Speaker 1: so far.
- 1:06:17Speaker 2: He got tagged by the Cubs.
- 1:06:20Speaker 1: We had a I think we might have had a
- 1:06:21Speaker 1: win on the Cubs in that game if I remember correctly.
- 1:06:23Speaker 2: I don't.
- 1:06:24Speaker 1: Maybe I don't remember correctly. I think we did, uh
- 1:06:26Speaker 1: so I think we did get the win with the
- 1:06:28Speaker 1: Cubs in that one. Kikuchi is a big time fade
- 1:06:31Speaker 1: on the road. He's always bad on the road, but
- 1:06:36Speaker 1: at home he's always better. So he is at home today.
- 1:06:39Speaker 1: This is gonna be his first home start, so Kakuchi
- 1:06:43Speaker 1: is less fatable at home. I'm not a fan of him,
- 1:06:45Speaker 1: like I think you could definitely still fade him at
- 1:06:47Speaker 1: home in certain spots. But he's better at home, so
- 1:06:50Speaker 1: you do have to keep that in mind. Against the Braves,
- 1:06:52Speaker 1: his numbers are not good though in one hundred and
- 1:06:55Speaker 1: one of bats, twenty four to five strike up walk
- 1:06:57Speaker 1: ratio is good, but two ninety seven average eight oh
- 1:07:00Speaker 1: five ops. None of that is good, so you know,
- 1:07:04Speaker 1: and I don't like the bullpens there. The only bullpen
- 1:07:06Speaker 1: that I do like is Atlanta's I think an over
- 1:07:10Speaker 1: makes sense in this game, even though you got to
- 1:07:13Speaker 1: dodge Atlanta's bullpen. That is good, but both starting pitchers
- 1:07:16Speaker 1: could get knocked out of this game, although you do
- 1:07:19Speaker 1: have to dodge Kakuchi being good at home too. But
- 1:07:22Speaker 1: sixty percent of tickets seventy eight percent of the cash
- 1:07:24Speaker 1: on the under money looks like it's somewhat indicating on
- 1:07:27Speaker 1: the under, but I would not want that. I lean over,
- 1:07:31Speaker 1: and uh, I think I still probably lean Atlanta here. Uh,
- 1:07:35Speaker 1: They're at minus one forty seventy per tickets, seventy seven
- 1:07:37Speaker 1: percent of the cash. They're a public side. But again
- 1:07:40Speaker 1: I think atlanta massive bullpen edge for them. I think
- 1:07:43Speaker 1: they're hitting is a bit better, and I still give
- 1:07:45Speaker 1: them a little bit of a starting pitching edge here.
- 1:07:49Speaker 1: I worry, though, you know about Lopez's age and whatever here,
- 1:07:52Speaker 1: and the matchup doesn't look that great for him, so
- 1:07:55Speaker 1: I do have my concerns there. So again I think
- 1:07:57Speaker 1: an over might be the better look there. Thank you, yeah,
- 1:08:03Speaker 1: thank you, sir, mister Pinsey. What's up Philadelphia, San Francisco
- 1:08:07Speaker 1: to finish off the baseball slate here, let me see
- 1:08:12Speaker 1: what happened in the game last night. Philadelphia won again
- 1:08:15Speaker 1: last night. I thought San Francisco was in a good spot.
- 1:08:18Speaker 1: I think last night to get the win if I
- 1:08:20Speaker 1: remember correctly, and that did not happen, so Philadelphia got
- 1:08:24Speaker 1: the win. Now, Philadelphia definitely has the better offense here.
- 1:08:27Speaker 1: San Francisco's offense has been horrendous this season. I think
- 1:08:31Speaker 1: you have to give San Francisco probably a bullpen edge,
- 1:08:33Speaker 1: though the bullpen usually is pretty good.
- 1:08:36Speaker 2: Where are they at here? Though?
- 1:08:38Speaker 1: Let me see, Giants, they're actually twenty first this season,
- 1:08:41Speaker 1: so they actually haven't been that good bullpen wise to.
- 1:08:44Speaker 2: Start the season.
- 1:08:45Speaker 1: Phillies where the Phillies at what the hell? Phillies are
- 1:08:51Speaker 1: actually top six believe it or not based on last year,
- 1:08:54Speaker 1: though I think there will be some regression there, like
- 1:08:57Speaker 1: you gotta give I guess you give Philly a little
- 1:08:59Speaker 1: bit of a bullpen right now, but over the course
- 1:09:02Speaker 1: of the season.
- 1:09:03Speaker 2: I don't know that that'll be the case.
- 1:09:04Speaker 1: Also, Philly used five relief pitchers yesterday, so that's not good.
- 1:09:08Speaker 1: San Francisco used four, which is also not great. You know,
- 1:09:13Speaker 1: I don't like how either bullpen necessarily sets up here.
- 1:09:16Speaker 1: Philly definitely has a better offense, and I think they
- 1:09:19Speaker 1: do have a starting pitching edge here with Christopher Sanchez
- 1:09:22Speaker 1: on the mound. He's off to a pretty good start
- 1:09:23Speaker 1: this season. A little bit worrious. Somebody walked four guys
- 1:09:27Speaker 1: in his last outing against Washington, but he struck out
- 1:09:30Speaker 1: seventeen guys in eleven and a third innings so far,
- 1:09:33Speaker 1: man and allowed one ear and run off of seven hits.
- 1:09:36Speaker 1: Granted against Texas and Washington not great offenses, but San
- 1:09:40Speaker 1: Francisco is a train wreck of an offense right now.
- 1:09:43Speaker 1: So you gotta think Sanchez is going to continue doing
- 1:09:46Speaker 1: well here. Pretty good numbers again against San Francisco, even
- 1:09:50Speaker 1: though I know, like I said, he did walk too
- 1:09:51Speaker 1: many guys in his last outing, but I'm not ready
- 1:09:54Speaker 1: to say that he's all of a sudden in bad
- 1:09:55Speaker 1: form or anything. Sixty nine at bats against the Giants,
- 1:09:58Speaker 1: eighteen to six strike up, walk ratio two, forty six,
- 1:10:02Speaker 1: batting average allowed, six to sixty nine ops. Sanchez has
- 1:10:05Speaker 1: been pretty good against the Giants.
- 1:10:08Speaker 2: He's going up.
- 1:10:08Speaker 1: Against Robbie Ray. Robbie Ray off to a decent start
- 1:10:12Speaker 1: this season. Mediocre, I mean, he lasted five and a
- 1:10:16Speaker 1: third in each of his ownings. Does have a good
- 1:10:18Speaker 1: strikeout rate so far eleven strikeouts, three walks. He faced
- 1:10:21Speaker 1: the Yankees and the Mets, so he did work his
- 1:10:24Speaker 1: way through two pretty good lineups there and got a
- 1:10:27Speaker 1: win against the Mets, so he's off to a good
- 1:10:29Speaker 1: start this season. He bitched pretty well last year as well,
- 1:10:33Speaker 1: but kind of tailed off in the later part of
- 1:10:36Speaker 1: the season, so maybe he's a guy who pitches well
- 1:10:38Speaker 1: early and tires out later in the season. His numbers
- 1:10:42Speaker 1: are good against Philly in one hundred and four at bats,
- 1:10:44Speaker 1: thirty seven to thirteen strikeout walk ratio is not very good,
- 1:10:47Speaker 1: but two poo two batting average allowed, six eighteen ops, he's.
- 1:10:52Speaker 2: Got pretty good numbers. I still think I prefer.
- 1:10:57Speaker 1: Sanchez in this matchup, though, and the money is kind
- 1:10:59Speaker 1: of all coming on Philadelphia. They're up for minus one
- 1:11:02Speaker 1: thirty to minus one fifty though, so it's a.
- 1:11:05Speaker 2: Pretty big price on Philly.
- 1:11:07Speaker 1: There fifty nine percent of tickets ninety four percent of
- 1:11:10Speaker 1: the cash on Philly, so the money is coming in
- 1:11:13Speaker 1: on Philly as well.
- 1:11:14Speaker 2: I don't disagree with it. I lean Philly in this game.
- 1:11:16Speaker 1: As well, and I think even in the bullpens I
- 1:11:19Speaker 1: think the bullpen is not really a huge advantage for
- 1:11:22Speaker 1: San Francisco either.
- 1:11:24Speaker 2: The totals at seven.
- 1:11:27Speaker 1: As far as an under, I would lean under based
- 1:11:29Speaker 1: on the starting pitching matchup, but I don't really want
- 1:11:33Speaker 1: to deal with the bullpens with as unrested as they are.
- 1:11:36Speaker 1: Even though the bullpens are okay, seventy one percent of
- 1:11:38Speaker 1: tickets ninety five percent of the cash on the over,
- 1:11:41Speaker 1: I'd lean slightly towards the under here. I know it's
- 1:11:43Speaker 1: that key number of seven, but maybe first five inning
- 1:11:46Speaker 1: makes more sense. But you're looking at like three or
- 1:11:48Speaker 1: three and a half there. So those are my thoughts
- 1:11:51Speaker 1: there on that. I will be right back and then
- 1:11:54Speaker 1: we'll do NHL and NBA. No more college basketball.
- 1:11:57Speaker 2: Man. NHL is a mass of board today because it's Tuesday.
- 1:12:01Speaker 1: Well not as massive as it usually is, I guess,
- 1:12:03Speaker 1: but it's still big, a lot of things to talk
- 1:12:06Speaker 1: about here, and then we're gonna talk about NBA as well.
- 1:12:10Speaker 1: Hopefully we can get this done in less than two hours. Man,
- 1:12:13Speaker 1: I'll be back in a second. Baseball is you know,
- 1:12:16Speaker 1: just too autistic for me. I think, hold on, I'll
- 1:12:19Speaker 1: be back in a second.
- 1:13:28Speaker 2: All right, let's go to hockey here. Yeah, that's what
- 1:13:34Speaker 2: I was doing.
- 1:13:36Speaker 1: Oh, I need to like rest my voice, man, grab
- 1:13:39Speaker 1: some water, blow my nose. You know, I got a
- 1:13:42Speaker 1: lot of problems here, dry air in here. My back
- 1:13:46Speaker 1: hurts based on this chair.
- 1:13:47Speaker 2: I don't know, maybe I need to.
- 1:13:50Speaker 1: Let's lean back, man, let's have let's have a little
- 1:13:54Speaker 1: bit of a more RESTful NHL breakdown here. Trying man,
- 1:14:00Speaker 1: but I just like, I don't know, I wound up
- 1:14:03Speaker 1: just kind of talking loud and whatever, and it is
- 1:14:05Speaker 1: not helpful to me.
- 1:14:09Speaker 2: Deep breass, baby, deep breasts all right. Hockey Florida at Montreal.
- 1:14:14Speaker 2: Florida is eliminated.
- 1:14:16Speaker 1: Montreal has clinched a playoff spot at this point, so yeah,
- 1:14:20Speaker 1: they're playing for like seeding and stuff, but neither team
- 1:14:23Speaker 1: is really playing for that much. I don't think I'm
- 1:14:26Speaker 1: a surely all pretty secure in not having to be
- 1:14:29Speaker 1: in a wildcard spot either. So I don't know, I
- 1:14:33Speaker 1: don't love this game. Like, I just don't see too
- 1:14:35Speaker 1: much motivation for either team here. Maybe Florida will get
- 1:14:39Speaker 1: up for it because they know they're playing out the stretch,
- 1:14:41Speaker 1: but now that they're eliminated, maybe they aren't that excited
- 1:14:44Speaker 1: about this. They're coming off two really ugly games in Pittsburgh, though,
- 1:14:49Speaker 1: but they are also playing a fourth game in six days,
- 1:14:52Speaker 1: all in different city or no, two of them are
- 1:14:53Speaker 1: in Pittsburgh, but still multiple on the road. Not exactly
- 1:14:58Speaker 1: the greatest spot for Florida here. Montreal just lost in
- 1:15:02Speaker 1: a shutout at Homes and the Devils. It was a
- 1:15:05Speaker 1: bad spot for Montreal. They were returning over from a
- 1:15:08Speaker 1: road trip. They beat New Jersey to finish the road trouble, though.
- 1:15:11Speaker 1: I thought they might take them seriously after that because
- 1:15:14Speaker 1: it was a close game. Montreal just lost a long
- 1:15:17Speaker 1: win streak, though, so conflicting things here. When a team
- 1:15:21Speaker 1: is coming off a shutout loss at home. Hopefully I
- 1:15:26Speaker 1: didn't say shootout, I met shutout. A lot of times
- 1:15:29Speaker 1: they will bounce back from that. But when you lose
- 1:15:31Speaker 1: a long win streak like Montreal had they had an
- 1:15:34Speaker 1: eight game win streak or whatever, sometimes losing.
- 1:15:37Speaker 2: That will hang you over as well.
- 1:15:39Speaker 1: And they do have Tampa Bay up next, which might
- 1:15:41Speaker 1: be a bigger game because it has to you know,
- 1:15:43Speaker 1: it might have some seeding implications or whatever.
- 1:15:46Speaker 2: I don't love Montreal on the spot.
- 1:15:48Speaker 1: There are minus two ten here, ninety tickets ninety nine
- 1:15:51Speaker 1: percent of the cash. I would probably lean towards Florida
- 1:15:54Speaker 1: on the puck line or something, because I just don't
- 1:15:57Speaker 1: know what Montreal's mindset is gonna be there. I mean,
- 1:16:00Speaker 1: I don't really know what Florida's will be either, but Florida
- 1:16:02Speaker 1: might come in a little bit of an embarrassed mood
- 1:16:05Speaker 1: there at the very least, even though now that they're
- 1:16:06Speaker 1: officially eliminated, maybe it'll be a bit downtrodden. But you
- 1:16:10Speaker 1: can see why I don't want anything to do with
- 1:16:11Speaker 1: that game. Tampa Bay at Ottawa. Tampa Bay, they've already
- 1:16:16Speaker 1: clinched a playoffs spot as well. They have seeding to
- 1:16:18Speaker 1: play for, but Ottawa is trying to make the playoffs.
- 1:16:21Speaker 2: Man.
- 1:16:22Speaker 1: Ottawa is in the last wildcard spot right now and
- 1:16:26Speaker 1: it's close, so Ottawa does need wins here. Tampa Bay
- 1:16:31Speaker 1: is coming off a loss to Buffalo last night, so
- 1:16:33Speaker 1: they're on a back to back. They're playing a third
- 1:16:35Speaker 1: game in four days, all.
- 1:16:36Speaker 2: In different cities.
- 1:16:37Speaker 1: They have that possible seeding implication game up next against Montreal.
- 1:16:43Speaker 1: For what that's worth, it was a tough game against Buffalo.
- 1:16:46Speaker 2: It was a close game.
- 1:16:47Speaker 1: There was an empty netter at the end. So the
- 1:16:49Speaker 1: spot is not great for Tampa Bay here, and they're
- 1:16:51Speaker 1: running into an Ottawa team that needs to keep showing up.
- 1:16:55Speaker 1: But Ottawa's coming off of a really good win on
- 1:16:57Speaker 1: Sunday against Carolina. You could make the argument this's a
- 1:17:01Speaker 1: little bit of a let down here, although again I
- 1:17:03Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna overlook anybody right now. They can't
- 1:17:06Speaker 1: over I mean, they're not gonna overlook a team like
- 1:17:08Speaker 1: Tampa Bay either, And they did lose at Tampa back
- 1:17:11Speaker 1: on March twenty eighth, so and they have the rest advantage.
- 1:17:14Speaker 2: So I like Ottawa.
- 1:17:15Speaker 1: I just worry about them coming off another huge, like
- 1:17:18Speaker 1: a huge win against Caroline. I worry that they might
- 1:17:21Speaker 1: get a little bit tired by the end of this
- 1:17:23Speaker 1: or whatever. They're at minus one twenty six here, seventy
- 1:17:26Speaker 1: seven percent of tickets, eighty percent of the cash on
- 1:17:28Speaker 1: Ottawa money.
- 1:17:30Speaker 2: Somewhat agreeing maybe for now.
- 1:17:32Speaker 1: But they look like kind of a public side too,
- 1:17:34Speaker 1: which does worry me a little bit. But again, people
- 1:17:37Speaker 1: you'd think that Tampa Bay would be public here because
- 1:17:39Speaker 1: people are gonna look at this and think, how is
- 1:17:41Speaker 1: Ottawa favored over the better team Tampa Bay right the
- 1:17:45Speaker 1: team with the better record, you know, But I think
- 1:17:48Speaker 1: some of that Autawa must win factor is being factored
- 1:17:51Speaker 1: into that number there a little bit. But I'm gonna
- 1:17:53Speaker 1: slightly lean towards Ottawa there. Columbus at Detroit, these teams
- 1:17:57Speaker 1: are both fighting to make the playoffs right now. Columbus
- 1:17:59Speaker 1: is and off. These two teams are tied two points
- 1:18:02Speaker 1: out of the wildcard right now, so they're gonna show up.
- 1:18:06Speaker 1: Columbus is on a bad slide, six losses in a row.
- 1:18:11Speaker 1: They've had two days off now, and they're starting a
- 1:18:13Speaker 1: road trips. That might be good for them, man, because
- 1:18:15Speaker 1: they've been losing all these games at home. It might
- 1:18:17Speaker 1: be good to just forget about it, get out of there,
- 1:18:20Speaker 1: go on the road. You got a couple of days off,
- 1:18:22Speaker 1: go play a hockey game, you know, So maybe it'll
- 1:18:24Speaker 1: be a good thing for them. Detroit had yesterday off,
- 1:18:27Speaker 1: but they had a much tougher game in their last game.
- 1:18:30Speaker 1: They lost by one to Minnesota in a return home spot.
- 1:18:34Speaker 1: It was a tough game though, and a lot of
- 1:18:35Speaker 1: times the team will be better in that second game
- 1:18:38Speaker 1: back home, but maybe not in this case, because that
- 1:18:40Speaker 1: was a tough game against Minnesota. Now, both teams do
- 1:18:44Speaker 1: need to show up because they're both trying to make
- 1:18:46Speaker 1: the playoffs here, but I think I prefer Columbus in
- 1:18:49Speaker 1: this one. Detroit's down for minus one twenty to minus
- 1:18:51Speaker 1: one fourteen. Detroit's public eighty two percent of tickets, so
- 1:18:55Speaker 1: that it looks like they have ninety one percent of
- 1:18:56Speaker 1: the cash right now, which makes it look like maybe
- 1:18:59Speaker 1: there is some money on Detroit.
- 1:19:01Speaker 2: But I feel isn't great for this game.
- 1:19:03Speaker 1: But I leank Columbus in that one extra day of rest,
- 1:19:06Speaker 1: you know, possible bigger bounce back spot for them there.
- 1:19:12Speaker 1: ESPN's got a doubleheader Philadelphia at New Jersey is the
- 1:19:15Speaker 1: first game Philadelphia here, coming off beating my Boston Bruins
- 1:19:20Speaker 1: unfortunately in overtime.
- 1:19:22Speaker 2: Now they're going to New Jersey.
- 1:19:24Speaker 1: Now, both these teams are not eliminated. New Jersey is
- 1:19:28Speaker 1: pretty close to being eliminated though. I mean they're the
- 1:19:30Speaker 1: next team up for elimination. They're not gonna make the playoffs, really, man.
- 1:19:35Speaker 1: But Philadelphia is actually in. They're out of the wildcard
- 1:19:39Speaker 1: right now. They're above I guess they have a tiebreaker
- 1:19:42Speaker 1: over all Otto win Await is Otto in the Atlantic.
- 1:19:44Speaker 2: I don't even know, man.
- 1:19:46Speaker 1: But Philadelphia has moved up into the third spot in
- 1:19:49Speaker 1: the Metro Division now, so Philadelphia is actually sitting a
- 1:19:52Speaker 1: bit prettier in the New Jersey right now.
- 1:19:55Speaker 2: Man. So Philadelphia might be feeling maybe a little bit
- 1:19:57Speaker 2: good about themselves.
- 1:19:58Speaker 1: They're going out on the road here, but you have
- 1:20:00Speaker 1: Detroit on deck, which might be a bigger game because
- 1:20:02Speaker 1: they're battling them for playoff positioning New Jersey a little
- 1:20:06Speaker 1: bit under the radar now, New Jersey.
- 1:20:08Speaker 2: One other thing I should have mentioned with.
- 1:20:10Speaker 1: Them, by the way, is I think they've now won
- 1:20:11Speaker 1: eleven games in a row at Montreal, which seems insane,
- 1:20:15Speaker 1: but Montreal, I mean they haven't been good or recently.
- 1:20:18Speaker 2: So.
- 1:20:20Speaker 1: There is that New Jersey did get that win at Montreal.
- 1:20:23Speaker 1: Maybe they're feeling a little bit too good about themselves
- 1:20:26Speaker 1: off of that win. But it's a home game for
- 1:20:29Speaker 1: them on TV, So I think New Jersey might get
- 1:20:31Speaker 1: off for this game a little bit more than maybe
- 1:20:33Speaker 1: you might think. I like New Jersey and this one
- 1:20:36Speaker 1: the money is agreeing with that. They're at minus won
- 1:20:38Speaker 1: twenty two, with fifty to fifty on the tickets and
- 1:20:40Speaker 1: ninety one percent of the cash on New Jersey.
- 1:20:43Speaker 2: I'm gonna agree. I just don't really have that strong
- 1:20:45Speaker 2: of a feal for this one. I mean, Philadelphia, it's
- 1:20:48Speaker 2: you know, they could.
- 1:20:49Speaker 1: They still need to win games, but yeah, they are
- 1:20:51Speaker 1: feeling a little bit more secure right.
- 1:20:53Speaker 2: Now, probably that they're out of the wildcard spots.
- 1:20:56Speaker 1: For now, New Jersey is just trying to stave off
- 1:20:58Speaker 1: elimination here. But that might be a spot where you
- 1:21:01Speaker 1: get a better effort out of them because they can
- 1:21:04Speaker 1: play kind of a bit looser in a way. My
- 1:21:07Speaker 1: Boston Bruins are at Carolina. Bruins are trying to hang
- 1:21:11Speaker 1: on to a wildcard spot.
- 1:21:13Speaker 2: They still have a decent lead.
- 1:21:14Speaker 1: They at least got a point out of that game
- 1:21:16Speaker 1: against Philadelphia, but they have lost three games in a row.
- 1:21:19Speaker 1: But this is just such a difficult schedule for the Bruins. Man,
- 1:21:22Speaker 1: four games in six days now, own different cities, all
- 1:21:25Speaker 1: against competent teams.
- 1:21:26Speaker 2: Even though I know.
- 1:21:27Speaker 1: Florida is eliminated whatever I mean, Florida's still not a
- 1:21:30Speaker 1: bad team. Man, Bruins have to go to Carolina. Now.
- 1:21:35Speaker 2: It's a difficult spot.
- 1:21:36Speaker 1: Man, they should show up, you know, in theory, I
- 1:21:40Speaker 1: mean Carolina, maybe has a little bit less to play
- 1:21:43Speaker 1: for it because they're just trying to play for the
- 1:21:45Speaker 1: one seed and whatever. They did just lose pretty badly
- 1:21:47Speaker 1: in Ottawa, so they are coming back from Ottawa here.
- 1:21:52Speaker 1: I think the motivation is a little bit stronger on
- 1:21:55Speaker 1: the Bruins side because they're closer to potentially not making
- 1:21:58Speaker 1: the playoffs. So though they have a decent amount of
- 1:22:00Speaker 1: padding here, Carolina has a huge amount of padding in
- 1:22:04Speaker 1: their division. At the very least, they do have home
- 1:22:06Speaker 1: ice to play for it. But I don't really know
- 1:22:08Speaker 1: how much that really matters.
- 1:22:11Speaker 2: I would have a slight lean towards the Bruins here.
- 1:22:14Speaker 1: Carolina done for minus one ninety to minus one eighty
- 1:22:17Speaker 1: five percent of the tickets ninety eight percent of the
- 1:22:19Speaker 1: cash on Carolina. But maybe there's some value they're looking towards,
- 1:22:23Speaker 1: like a Bruin puck line or something like that.
- 1:22:26Speaker 2: Not a strong opinion though. Colorado at Saint Louis.
- 1:22:29Speaker 1: Colorado just lost to Saint Louis in their last game
- 1:22:32Speaker 1: at home. Now they're going out on the road quick
- 1:22:36Speaker 1: road revenge just about if you want to call it that.
- 1:22:38Speaker 1: Maybe Colorado will take the more seriously, Colorado doesn't have
- 1:22:41Speaker 1: anything up next here. But Colorado, I think they're pretty
- 1:22:45Speaker 1: they're they're pritting, they're sitting pretty safely here.
- 1:22:49Speaker 2: Let me see.
- 1:22:50Speaker 1: Yeah, they're in the one spot, eight points ahead of Dallas,
- 1:22:53Speaker 1: who's the next closest, So Colorado doesn't really have that
- 1:22:56Speaker 1: much to play for here down the stretch. They can't
- 1:22:58Speaker 1: lose every remaining game, though, and maybe they will take
- 1:23:01Speaker 1: Saint Louis a little bit more seriously after losing to them.
- 1:23:05Speaker 1: Saint Louis is still fighting to make the playoffs though.
- 1:23:08Speaker 1: Believe it or not, they're actually only five points out
- 1:23:12Speaker 1: of the last wildcard spots, so they're not eliminated, so
- 1:23:15Speaker 1: they might show up again. Man, it's a game against Colorado.
- 1:23:18Speaker 1: Problem for them is it's a return home spot, and
- 1:23:21Speaker 1: they did just upset Anaheim and Colorado on the road,
- 1:23:24Speaker 1: so that kind of makes it an ify spot, a
- 1:23:27Speaker 1: letdown spot, having a.
- 1:23:29Speaker 2: Return home from the road. You know, it could be difficult.
- 1:23:31Speaker 1: You got to get back to home life, you know,
- 1:23:33Speaker 1: you could be a little bit distracted.
- 1:23:35Speaker 2: I don't think they're gonna overlook Colorado, but.
- 1:23:39Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I kind of like Colorado in this one,
- 1:23:41Speaker 1: just because they might actually try to beat Saint Louis.
- 1:23:44Speaker 1: After Saint Louis beat them in Colorado. Saint Louis with
- 1:23:49Speaker 1: the return home spot does worry me a bit, even
- 1:23:51Speaker 1: though they can't really overlook anybody with the spot that
- 1:23:55Speaker 1: they're in right now. But I highly doubt they're gonna
- 1:23:57Speaker 1: make the playoffs anyway. Colorado at MIGHTUS one fifty here
- 1:24:00Speaker 1: ninety two percent of tickets, ninety nine percent of the
- 1:24:02Speaker 1: cash on them, So Colorado is a public side there though,
- 1:24:06Speaker 1: but I would not want to try to take Saint
- 1:24:08Speaker 1: Louis in that game, probably slightly into Colorado there. Calgary
- 1:24:12Speaker 1: at Dallas. Dallas, they've been playing so poorly recently. The
- 1:24:18Speaker 1: Minnesota is actually right on their heels. I don't know
- 1:24:20Speaker 1: how much they care because Dallas has already clinched a
- 1:24:22Speaker 1: playoff spot, but you know, they probably prefer to have
- 1:24:26Speaker 1: a home series in the first game, so they do
- 1:24:29Speaker 1: have that in the first round of the playoffs, so
- 1:24:32Speaker 1: they probably do have that to still motivate them. Here,
- 1:24:36Speaker 1: Calgary just beating Anaheim. They've had a couple of days off,
- 1:24:38Speaker 1: so they are rested. They're not gonna overlook Dallas, I
- 1:24:41Speaker 1: wouldn't think, But Calgary, I mean they're basically they're about
- 1:24:45Speaker 1: to get eliminated, like they know they're not gonna.
- 1:24:46Speaker 2: Make the playoffs here.
- 1:24:48Speaker 1: Dallas, though, you know, doesn't exactly have a ton to
- 1:24:51Speaker 1: play for here, even though yes, there is home ice
- 1:24:53Speaker 1: to play for here.
- 1:24:54Speaker 2: They did just lose to Colorado. Both teams have had
- 1:24:57Speaker 2: two days off.
- 1:24:59Speaker 1: Dallas is staying, but that was a difficult game against Colorado. Man,
- 1:25:02Speaker 1: that was a big game, and they got Minnesota on
- 1:25:04Speaker 1: deck in Minnesota is the team right behind them, so
- 1:25:07Speaker 1: it's almost like, really, all they have to do is
- 1:25:09Speaker 1: beat Minnesota on that game and then they should be
- 1:25:11Speaker 1: able to kind of coast through and you know, get at.
- 1:25:14Speaker 2: Least one or two more wins there and remain ahead
- 1:25:17Speaker 2: of them.
- 1:25:18Speaker 1: So Dallas might overlook this a little bit here. Dallas
- 1:25:21Speaker 1: down to minus two forty. I'd probably lean puck line
- 1:25:24Speaker 1: Calgary in that game, but I don't love it Seattle
- 1:25:27Speaker 1: at Minnesota.
- 1:25:30Speaker 2: Seattle is.
- 1:25:33Speaker 1: Probably gonna get eliminated here. I mean Calgary will as well.
- 1:25:35Speaker 1: Calgary's next up Seattle. You know, maybe something is still
- 1:25:40Speaker 1: played for, but they're pretty much they're pretty close. They're
- 1:25:44Speaker 1: eight points out of the wildcard here, which you know,
- 1:25:47Speaker 1: it's not insurmountable, but they're probably not gonna make the playoffs.
- 1:25:51Speaker 1: A lot of things would have to go right for them.
- 1:25:52Speaker 1: They've lost way too many games in a row, and
- 1:25:54Speaker 1: I've lost five in a row. They did play yesterday
- 1:25:57Speaker 1: against Winnipeg, but they did get blown out, and you know,
- 1:26:01Speaker 1: they might be sick of losing all these games here,
- 1:26:04Speaker 1: So they probably are gonna give you an effort here
- 1:26:06Speaker 1: at the very least against Minnesota, even though they are
- 1:26:08Speaker 1: on the back to back, they have a chance to
- 1:26:12Speaker 1: hand Minnesota a loss. You know, in Minnesota would not
- 1:26:14Speaker 1: be able to catch up to Dallas at that point.
- 1:26:17Speaker 1: Probably Minnesota is returning on from a road trip, though
- 1:26:20Speaker 1: it was only a quick road trip, but they are
- 1:26:22Speaker 1: playing a third game in four to a is all
- 1:26:24Speaker 1: in different cities here, which is not that easy to do.
- 1:26:27Speaker 1: They beat Ottaway and Detroit on the road trip, so
- 1:26:30Speaker 1: they beat two teams that are fighting for playoffs. And
- 1:26:33Speaker 1: they have a big Hulu game up next against Dallas,
- 1:26:35Speaker 1: so they might be looking ahead to that too, because
- 1:26:37Speaker 1: that's the game that they really need. So I would
- 1:26:40Speaker 1: lean to Seattle here even though they are on the
- 1:26:42Speaker 1: back to back. I don't like it well enough but
- 1:26:45Speaker 1: Minnesota minus two fifty two of their public ninety four
- 1:26:48Speaker 1: percent of tickets, ninety eight percent of the cash on them.
- 1:26:51Speaker 1: I'm gonna lean to Seattle run line in that excuse me,
- 1:26:54Speaker 1: puck line, run line. I'm still in baseball mode. Puck
- 1:26:56Speaker 1: line in that one. Edmonton at Utah's the other ESPN game.
- 1:27:00Speaker 1: This is a pretty good game because of the division
- 1:27:04Speaker 1: that they're in. Edmonton's in first place in the division,
- 1:27:07Speaker 1: but they're only four points away from being out of
- 1:27:11Speaker 1: the playoffs completely basically or five points, which is a
- 1:27:14Speaker 1: really insane situation to be and it's almost like you
- 1:27:17Speaker 1: might feel like you're secure but you're not.
- 1:27:20Speaker 2: And Utah is only one point behind them, but in.
- 1:27:22Speaker 1: A wild card spot, so it's kind of a crazy
- 1:27:25Speaker 1: situation where really both teams kind of need to show
- 1:27:27Speaker 1: up for this one. So it's a good game to
- 1:27:30Speaker 1: have a TV. It's a pretty good game in general.
- 1:27:32Speaker 1: Edmonton just got crushed by Vegas, so maybe they will
- 1:27:36Speaker 1: show up with more effort for this one. But they
- 1:27:38Speaker 1: did lose a five game win streak, so sometimes that
- 1:27:40Speaker 1: can hang you over.
- 1:27:41Speaker 2: But it was a pretty ugly loss.
- 1:27:43Speaker 1: Vegas is pretty good though, going out on the road
- 1:27:46Speaker 1: to start a road troup, A lot of times you
- 1:27:48Speaker 1: are focused for that reason. And they they do have
- 1:27:50Speaker 1: two days off, so they're a little bit rested here.
- 1:27:54Speaker 1: But they did win on March twenty fourth at Utah,
- 1:27:57Speaker 1: so Utah, you know, they might take Utah a little
- 1:28:01Speaker 1: bit less seriously for that reason. Utah's were turning on
- 1:28:04Speaker 1: from a road trip though it was a road trip
- 1:28:06Speaker 1: since Saturday of the twenty eighth, and you know, I
- 1:28:08Speaker 1: don't like that when teams are on the road for
- 1:28:10Speaker 1: a long period of time. They went up to the
- 1:28:12Speaker 1: Pacific Northwest during that road trip. A lot of times
- 1:28:16Speaker 1: the team will not be totally focused when they get
- 1:28:18Speaker 1: back home.
- 1:28:19Speaker 2: They got home life to get back to whatever. Now.
- 1:28:21Speaker 2: I don't think they're going to overlook Edmonton.
- 1:28:23Speaker 1: Though, in a spot where Utah needs to be playing
- 1:28:26Speaker 1: for playoff positioning. It's on ESPN, but the spot does
- 1:28:30Speaker 1: look like it's a little bit worse for Utah though. Man,
- 1:28:33Speaker 1: so I think Edmonton is the lean here. Utah down
- 1:28:36Speaker 1: for minus one thirty minus one nineteen. I don't want
- 1:28:38Speaker 1: to put this on my card, but eighty nine percent
- 1:28:40Speaker 1: of tickets, ninety nine percent of the cash on Edmonton,
- 1:28:44Speaker 1: I agree with the market read in that one or
- 1:28:47Speaker 1: what looks like it is the market lean there towards Edmonton,
- 1:28:50Speaker 1: Vegas at Vancouver. Now, the thing about Vegas is they
- 1:28:54Speaker 1: are on the verge of being knocked out of the
- 1:28:57Speaker 1: playoffs as well. They're in the third spot of the
- 1:28:59Speaker 1: Pacific right now. They're also basically tied with Utah and
- 1:29:03Speaker 1: they're only like one game out of not being in
- 1:29:06Speaker 1: the playoffs at all one point. I mean, Vegas is
- 1:29:10Speaker 1: also coming off that big blowout win over Edmonton.
- 1:29:13Speaker 2: Now they've had two days off, so they're rested.
- 1:29:15Speaker 1: But that rest could kind of hurt you when you
- 1:29:18Speaker 1: go into that rest with, you know, on a hot
- 1:29:21Speaker 1: streak like that, on a three game win streak, off
- 1:29:23Speaker 1: a huge win, it could kind of, you know, slow
- 1:29:26Speaker 1: you down a little bit and make you lose that
- 1:29:28Speaker 1: momentum a little bit. They did just beat Vancouver back
- 1:29:31Speaker 1: at home, not that long ago, four to two. Vancouver
- 1:29:33Speaker 1: is eliminated, but they got a chance to maybe play
- 1:29:36Speaker 1: spoiler here, so I think they might show up for
- 1:29:38Speaker 1: this game. They just returned home and lost pretty bad
- 1:29:42Speaker 1: that the Utah. They've had the same amount of rest now,
- 1:29:45Speaker 1: two days off, but the difference is they're going into
- 1:29:49Speaker 1: the rest on a bad note, so that could help
- 1:29:51Speaker 1: end their losing momentum. And the fact that it's a
- 1:29:53Speaker 1: second game back home off a road trip or term.
- 1:29:55Speaker 1: A lot of times the team will do better in
- 1:29:58Speaker 1: that spot because they'll refocus after a bad effort in
- 1:30:01Speaker 1: the first game back home.
- 1:30:02Speaker 2: Yeah. I like Vancouver in this one. Man.
- 1:30:05Speaker 1: I know you're going up against Vegas having motivation here
- 1:30:09Speaker 1: because Vegas needs to get these wins, but they're laying
- 1:30:11Speaker 1: minus two forty five now up for minus two twenty
- 1:30:14Speaker 1: eighty nine percent of the tickets on Vegas sixty four
- 1:30:17Speaker 1: percent of the money.
- 1:30:17Speaker 2: Though, on Vancouver.
- 1:30:20Speaker 1: I like Vancouver, man, I mean this is probably one
- 1:30:22Speaker 1: of the stronger leans for me here.
- 1:30:25Speaker 2: Who does Vegas play next? Let me say Seattle. I mean,
- 1:30:32Speaker 2: that's not that big of a deal.
- 1:30:33Speaker 1: If it was Colorado, I'd probably just do it and
- 1:30:36Speaker 1: jump in on Vancouver. I do like Vancouver. You could
- 1:30:39Speaker 1: probably get a decent puck line price.
- 1:30:41Speaker 2: On Vancouver there.
- 1:30:42Speaker 1: That would be what I would do in that game.
- 1:30:45Speaker 1: The money is agreeing with that. And then we have
- 1:30:47Speaker 1: Nashville and Anaheim here. Nashville is still fighting for this
- 1:30:50Speaker 1: last wildcard spot. But they lost last night to the Kings,
- 1:30:54Speaker 1: but they got a point out of it because it
- 1:30:57Speaker 1: was an overtime win for the Kings or something.
- 1:31:01Speaker 2: Nashville and now one point behind the Kings.
- 1:31:03Speaker 1: Out of the wildcard spot here, so Nashville needs to
- 1:31:06Speaker 1: put an effort and they're only going up the road here.
- 1:31:09Speaker 1: But they did play yesterday in a big game, and
- 1:31:12Speaker 1: they played a bunch of big games in a row
- 1:31:14Speaker 1: man against Montreal, Tampa Bay, the Kings twice mixed in
- 1:31:18Speaker 1: here San Jose.
- 1:31:19Speaker 2: Who's also fighting for that last wildcard spot.
- 1:31:22Speaker 1: So I don't know if it's a great spot for
- 1:31:24Speaker 1: Nashville really, three road games in the last four days here,
- 1:31:29Speaker 1: four in the last six days.
- 1:31:31Speaker 2: That's not easy to do. And Anaheim's pretty good at home.
- 1:31:35Speaker 1: Anaheim, I don't believe, played last night, so they have
- 1:31:38Speaker 1: a rest advantage. They're coming off a disgusting loss to
- 1:31:40Speaker 1: Calgary at home, so Anaheim's lost five in a row
- 1:31:44Speaker 1: and they're staying at home.
- 1:31:45Speaker 2: They have two days off of a horrendous loss.
- 1:31:48Speaker 1: So I would have to lean to Anaheim here, even
- 1:31:51Speaker 1: though you know you're probably gonna get an effort out
- 1:31:52Speaker 1: of both teams. Anaheim did drop to minus one to
- 1:31:55Speaker 1: forty five minus one fifty five. But I would go
- 1:31:57Speaker 1: Anaheim money line on that game. That's the way I
- 1:32:00Speaker 1: would play it if I was gonna play it. All right,
- 1:32:04Speaker 1: let's go to NBA. We'll finish this in less than
- 1:32:08Speaker 1: two hours here. Though there's a lot of NBA today, well,
- 1:32:11Speaker 1: I think there's like ten games, eleven games.
- 1:32:13Speaker 2: I don't know. Chicago at Washington. This is one of
- 1:32:17Speaker 2: those games where nothing matters because both teams are just
- 1:32:20Speaker 2: playing out the stretch. They're both going nowhere.
- 1:32:23Speaker 1: Chicago's av A loss, I believe Washington's av A loss.
- 1:32:27Speaker 1: Not close losses. Well, actually Washington was close, but it
- 1:32:30Speaker 1: was to Brooklyn, which is really ugly. They were turning
- 1:32:32Speaker 1: on from a road trip, but it was only a
- 1:32:34Speaker 1: two game road trip, staying on the East Coast. I
- 1:32:37Speaker 1: don't believe either of these teams played yesterday. So yeah,
- 1:32:41Speaker 1: I mean still, it's a game where you know you're
- 1:32:44Speaker 1: likely to not get intense deepfense here. The totals all
- 1:32:47Speaker 1: the way up to two point fifty one, and we
- 1:32:48Speaker 1: know the Bulls go at a fast pace and don't
- 1:32:51Speaker 1: play deepfense. I think the over is the correct approach here,
- 1:32:54Speaker 1: but two to fifty one is getting insane. At two
- 1:32:57Speaker 1: forty eight and a half two forty nine, it would
- 1:32:58Speaker 1: have been more enticing. I would still lean over in
- 1:33:01Speaker 1: this one, though, if I was gonna do anything with it.
- 1:33:03Speaker 1: Seventy five percent of tickets eighty five percent of the
- 1:33:06Speaker 1: cash on the over there. Again, when it's two dead teams,
- 1:33:10Speaker 1: it's just usually don't see intense deepfense, and the Bulls
- 1:33:13Speaker 1: play an over style as well. So Bulls are up
- 1:33:17Speaker 1: to a six point favorite, by the way, for that's
- 1:33:19Speaker 1: worth sixty tickets, seventy one percent of the cash on
- 1:33:22Speaker 1: the Bulls. I have no reed on the side, and
- 1:33:24Speaker 1: that one over would be my lean there. Minnesota and Indiana,
- 1:33:28Speaker 1: it looks like Anthony Edwards is still out from Minnesota here.
- 1:33:32Speaker 1: Minnesota they're gonna be in the playoffs, but they might
- 1:33:36Speaker 1: have to be a little bit concerned here.
- 1:33:37Speaker 2: Well maybe not.
- 1:33:38Speaker 1: They're three games ahead of Phoenix, so it looks like
- 1:33:40Speaker 1: they're Minnesota's almost essentially locked into the sixth seed now,
- 1:33:45Speaker 1: so maybe that's why they're continuing to rest Edwards here.
- 1:33:48Speaker 1: But they're on a three game losing streak here. Going
- 1:33:51Speaker 1: back out on the road to play Indiana, they're gonna
- 1:33:53Speaker 1: be a big favorite here, but you know, maybe not
- 1:33:56Speaker 1: in position without Edwards. Here it's factored into the line,
- 1:33:59Speaker 1: but you know, with Minnesota kind of locked into the
- 1:34:02Speaker 1: sixth seed now, maybe it's not a position where they're
- 1:34:04Speaker 1: gonna be able to cover.
- 1:34:07Speaker 2: A large number like this. Indiana is returning home from
- 1:34:09Speaker 2: a road trip.
- 1:34:11Speaker 1: It was less than a week though, starting on Wednesday,
- 1:34:14Speaker 1: and they only went to Chicago, Charlotte, Cleveland, so it's
- 1:34:16Speaker 1: not like this long road trip return for Indiana. They
- 1:34:20Speaker 1: played okay in that game against Cleveland. I think, so,
- 1:34:23Speaker 1: you know, I don't know. I mean, they might get
- 1:34:26Speaker 1: up for a game against Minnesota, but it's also kind
- 1:34:28Speaker 1: of a bad spot still on the return home.
- 1:34:30Speaker 2: Maybe they won't really totally show up with that for here.
- 1:34:33Speaker 1: The money is coming in of Minnesota at minus twelve
- 1:34:35Speaker 1: and a half, I don't think I really want to
- 1:34:37Speaker 1: lay it with their motivation maybe being kind of questionable there,
- 1:34:40Speaker 1: although I guess they kind of need to make sure
- 1:34:43Speaker 1: they're gonna be locked into that seed, but it really
- 1:34:45Speaker 1: kind of looks like they're not gonna move out of
- 1:34:47Speaker 1: the sixth seed now. Seventy seven percent of tickets ninety
- 1:34:50Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash on the tea. Wolves do
- 1:34:52Speaker 1: with that information what you want. It looks like some
- 1:34:54Speaker 1: of the money's on them. I don't want to lay
- 1:34:56Speaker 1: points like that though, but the spot might indeed be
- 1:34:59Speaker 1: a little bit worse for Indiana though. Milwaukee at Brooklyn
- 1:35:03Speaker 1: this is another game where neither team has anything to
- 1:35:05Speaker 1: play for. Here, Milwaukee to just kill Memphis in their
- 1:35:10Speaker 1: last game. Brooklyn had to win as well, right over
- 1:35:13Speaker 1: a Washington, which is less impressive, so maybe, well, I
- 1:35:17Speaker 1: don't know, neither win is really that impressive, so I
- 1:35:20Speaker 1: don't know what to do with it.
- 1:35:21Speaker 2: The Bucks are a two point favorite.
- 1:35:23Speaker 1: They are public seventy eight percent of tickets, only seventy
- 1:35:25Speaker 1: four percent of the cash, so the money looks like
- 1:35:27Speaker 1: it's kind of indicating on taking the.
- 1:35:29Speaker 2: Points with the nets.
- 1:35:30Speaker 1: It's another game where I think it over probably makes
- 1:35:32Speaker 1: sense because again, you got teams that just won't likely
- 1:35:36Speaker 1: play intense deepfense here. This total is way lower at
- 1:35:39Speaker 1: two twenty, but I actually would prefer to go over
- 1:35:41Speaker 1: a higher total because the oddsmakers are telling you something
- 1:35:45Speaker 1: like that total in that Wizard's Bowls game is way high.
- 1:35:48Speaker 1: For a reason, this total is low because the Nets
- 1:35:52Speaker 1: can't score, but eighty percent of tickets eighty eight percent
- 1:35:55Speaker 1: of the cash on the over. I would still need
- 1:35:57Speaker 1: over in that game, because again it's two teams just
- 1:36:00Speaker 1: questionable motivation playing out the stretch. Usually the deepfense is
- 1:36:03Speaker 1: just not as intense Miami at Toronto.
- 1:36:06Speaker 2: Here, Miami is.
- 1:36:10Speaker 1: Still fighting to try to avoid the play in man
- 1:36:13Speaker 1: and so is Toronto. So both these teams have that
- 1:36:15Speaker 1: to play for. Miami is pretty likely to land in
- 1:36:18Speaker 1: the play ins, though they would need kind of a
- 1:36:20Speaker 1: lot to go right for that to not happen. Toronto
- 1:36:23Speaker 1: is trying to maintain the sixth seed. Here, Miami's coming
- 1:36:26Speaker 1: off blowing out Washington. Yeah, I mean they've had a
- 1:36:32Speaker 1: couple of days off after that, so maybe it's a
- 1:36:34Speaker 1: decent spot for Miami here. Toronto just lost to the
- 1:36:41Speaker 1: Celtics and their returning home from that they went to
- 1:36:43Speaker 1: Memphis and Boston. Not a long road trip return though
- 1:36:46Speaker 1: to me, it looks like both teams are gonna kind
- 1:36:48Speaker 1: of show up for this with motivation though, So I
- 1:36:51Speaker 1: don't know, maybe Toronto because they're trying to make sure
- 1:36:54Speaker 1: they avoid the play in. Maybe there's a little bit
- 1:36:56Speaker 1: too much of a price attached to Toronto. Maybe for
- 1:36:59Speaker 1: that reason. They're one point one and a half point
- 1:37:02Speaker 1: favorite flip from a plus one and a half point
- 1:37:04Speaker 1: dog seventy one percent of tickets on Toronto, so they
- 1:37:07Speaker 1: are a public side and they're not really particularly a
- 1:37:10Speaker 1: good home team either.
- 1:37:11Speaker 2: They're better as a road underdog.
- 1:37:13Speaker 1: Really in my opinion, which I think that the numbers
- 1:37:16Speaker 1: kind of bear that out too. I think they're better
- 1:37:18Speaker 1: at covering the spread as a road dog. Sixty percent
- 1:37:21Speaker 1: of the tickets are cash excusing on the heat, so
- 1:37:24Speaker 1: the money is coming in on the heat.
- 1:37:26Speaker 2: I don't really disagree with it.
- 1:37:30Speaker 1: You know, maybe Toronto might start feeling a little bit
- 1:37:33Speaker 1: good about the Well, they shouldn't really feel good about
- 1:37:35Speaker 1: their position though, because they're only a half game above
- 1:37:37Speaker 1: three of the four playing teams right now. So both
- 1:37:40Speaker 1: teams do kind of need to win here and Miami
- 1:37:44Speaker 1: highly unlike could have get out of the plane. But
- 1:37:46Speaker 1: maybe that'll be Miami will play a.
- 1:37:47Speaker 2: Little bit looser.
- 1:37:49Speaker 1: There is an NBC Peacock doubleheader Charlotte at the Celtics.
- 1:37:53Speaker 2: Celtics not a.
- 1:37:54Speaker 1: Very heavy favorite here man and Charlotte is trying to
- 1:37:56Speaker 1: avoid the play in. But also these teams have a
- 1:37:59Speaker 1: little bit else to play for here, because being in
- 1:38:02Speaker 1: the seven and eighth spot actually matters as well, because
- 1:38:04Speaker 1: that means you only need to win one game to
- 1:38:07Speaker 1: get into the playoffs instead of two, So that does
- 1:38:10Speaker 1: matter a little bit as well. Charlotte is sitting in
- 1:38:13Speaker 1: the eighth spot right now.
- 1:38:15Speaker 2: But you know, it's a you know, all these teams
- 1:38:19Speaker 2: are crammed in there. It's a cluster there.
- 1:38:22Speaker 1: Celtics are close ish to me, locked into the two
- 1:38:26Speaker 1: seed here, there's still two and a half games above
- 1:38:28Speaker 1: the Knicks. They do play the Knicks in the next game.
- 1:38:31Speaker 1: Celtics just beat Charlotte in Charlotte by fifteen points, so
- 1:38:36Speaker 1: it could be a little bit of a zig zag here,
- 1:38:37Speaker 1: or maybe Charlotte will readjust and have a better game here.
- 1:38:41Speaker 1: They tend to give the Celtics problems. Celtics, though, excuse me,
- 1:38:46Speaker 1: Charlotte did just beat Minnesota on the road, which is
- 1:38:48Speaker 1: a pretty satisfying win there, although they're not going to
- 1:38:51Speaker 1: overlook the Celtics. So Celtics just had to win staying
- 1:38:54Speaker 1: at home. They just beat Toronto. I mean, not a
- 1:38:56Speaker 1: great win really, It was in a difficult spot returning
- 1:38:59Speaker 1: over from a road trip and they still got the win.
- 1:39:02Speaker 1: And usually I'll say a team will do better in
- 1:39:04Speaker 1: that second game back, but they didn't do poorly in
- 1:39:06Speaker 1: the first game. And they do have that game against
- 1:39:08Speaker 1: the Knicks next or if the Celtics win that, they'll
- 1:39:10Speaker 1: basically wrap.
- 1:39:11Speaker 2: Up the two seed.
- 1:39:12Speaker 1: But it is on the road. It's not gonna be
- 1:39:14Speaker 1: an easy game. This is not an easy game. Celtics
- 1:39:17Speaker 1: down from six and a half to five. It doesn't
- 1:39:18Speaker 1: look like there are really any injuries or anybody missing
- 1:39:21Speaker 1: this game, but the osbagers are telling you. The Hornets
- 1:39:24Speaker 1: are actually a very dangerous team, and they have one
- 1:39:28Speaker 1: of the Celtics former assistant coaches as their coach, so
- 1:39:31Speaker 1: they play a similar style, although yes, the Celtics are
- 1:39:34Speaker 1: better at it. Eighty percent of tickets seventy nine percent
- 1:39:37Speaker 1: of the cash on the Celtics, I'd lean Hornets plus
- 1:39:40Speaker 1: the points. Their Celtics are a public side there with
- 1:39:43Speaker 1: less than the money on it, which I don't love, man,
- 1:39:45Speaker 1: because I want the Celtics to wrap up this two
- 1:39:47Speaker 1: seed here, so I am concerned about it. Utah at
- 1:39:52Speaker 1: New Orleans another situation where these teams are kind of
- 1:39:54Speaker 1: playing out the stretch. But New Orleans seems to be
- 1:39:56Speaker 1: the one team that's actually putting against some effort because
- 1:39:58Speaker 1: they don't have a first one out draft pick, so
- 1:40:02Speaker 1: they're not, you know, thinking about that and thinking, oh,
- 1:40:05Speaker 1: at least we'll have a potential to get a good
- 1:40:08Speaker 1: first round pick.
- 1:40:09Speaker 2: They won't because they already traded it away.
- 1:40:12Speaker 1: They've lost a bunch of games in a row, but
- 1:40:13Speaker 1: they actually have been competitive, including in their last game
- 1:40:17Speaker 1: against Orlando. They're pretty competitive. But they're staying at home
- 1:40:20Speaker 1: coming off a competitive game. It is their final home game,
- 1:40:23Speaker 1: so maybe they'll get up for that, but you know,
- 1:40:26Speaker 1: Memphis didn't. But New Orleans has been putting in more effort.
- 1:40:29Speaker 1: But they do also have Boston and Minnesota to finish
- 1:40:32Speaker 1: the season, so maybe they'll put him more focus into
- 1:40:35Speaker 1: those games. Utah is coming off a blowout loss at
- 1:40:38Speaker 1: Oklahoma City.
- 1:40:40Speaker 2: I don't know if Utah is gonna put.
- 1:40:41Speaker 1: An effort here to try to get a win and
- 1:40:44Speaker 1: salvage something on this road trip or not. They've lost
- 1:40:46Speaker 1: a bunch of games in a row too, and haven't
- 1:40:49Speaker 1: been as competitive as New Orleans has. Seems like they're
- 1:40:52Speaker 1: putting in a little bit less effort New Orleans is
- 1:40:55Speaker 1: a twelve point favorite here. The Jazz also without a
- 1:40:58Speaker 1: lot of their starters here the Pelicans have I think
- 1:41:01Speaker 1: the majority of their starter is playing eighty two percent
- 1:41:04Speaker 1: of tickets and only seventy three percent of the cash
- 1:41:06Speaker 1: on the Pelicans though, so the money is indicating on
- 1:41:09Speaker 1: the Jazz. I don't really disagree with it. I'd probably
- 1:41:11Speaker 1: lean towards taking the points with the Jazz, Like should
- 1:41:14Speaker 1: the Pelicans be a double digit favorite against anybody? I mean,
- 1:41:17Speaker 1: it seems insane, although then again, the public might look
- 1:41:21Speaker 1: at that. Even though it looks like the public is
- 1:41:23Speaker 1: on the Pelicans here, you'd think they would look at
- 1:41:25Speaker 1: that and think that line is just insane, Like, how
- 1:41:27Speaker 1: could you possibly lay twelve and a half with the team?
- 1:41:29Speaker 2: It's a bad team. It's eliminated, you know. So there
- 1:41:34Speaker 2: is all that to consider.
- 1:41:35Speaker 1: The Jazz have been pretty awful away from home, though
- 1:41:38Speaker 1: Pelicans not necessarily good at home either. But the Jazz
- 1:41:41Speaker 1: eight and thirty one road record is really bad. But
- 1:41:43Speaker 1: then again, you only need the Jazz to cover a
- 1:41:46Speaker 1: huge number there, so I'd probably lean to the Jazz,
- 1:41:49Speaker 1: although they couldn't even cover the largest spread I think
- 1:41:51Speaker 1: in NBA history. In the last game against the Thunder,
- 1:41:55Speaker 1: they still didn't cover that number.
- 1:41:56Speaker 2: So I don't know. Uh, Sacramento at Golden State, Sacramento
- 1:42:02Speaker 2: just got blown up by the Clippers.
- 1:42:03Speaker 1: Maybe Sacramento will get up for this because this is
- 1:42:05Speaker 1: kind of a geographic rival that they have here with
- 1:42:08Speaker 1: Golden State. Golden State has Curry back now, so maybe
- 1:42:11Speaker 1: Sacramento will get up for this game. Golden State is
- 1:42:14Speaker 1: pretty much locked into the bottom playing game.
- 1:42:17Speaker 2: I think they can't really do much about it.
- 1:42:19Speaker 1: They're three and a half games back of Portland, so
- 1:42:21Speaker 1: I think Golden State is very much pretty much locked
- 1:42:23Speaker 1: into the ten spot there. So Golden State might not
- 1:42:26Speaker 1: have a ton to play for here at all. They
- 1:42:29Speaker 1: did just get Curry back.
- 1:42:30Speaker 2: Now.
- 1:42:31Speaker 1: A lot of times the team will do better in
- 1:42:33Speaker 1: the second game with that player back, So they weren't
- 1:42:36Speaker 1: necessarily great with Curry back, but they did still play
- 1:42:39Speaker 1: pretty well. I guess against Houston they lost by one.
- 1:42:42Speaker 1: I liked Houston in that game, and they won if
- 1:42:45Speaker 1: you played the money line, but they did not cover
- 1:42:46Speaker 1: the spread Houston did not. Now a lot of times,
- 1:42:51Speaker 1: the second game with your star player back will be
- 1:42:53Speaker 1: better because you've kind of worked him back in everybody
- 1:42:56Speaker 1: kind of knows their roles against so maybe Golden State
- 1:42:58Speaker 1: will do better for that. But they're coming off playing Denver,
- 1:43:02Speaker 1: San Antonio, Cleveland, Houston. They played Cleveland and Uston pretty close,
- 1:43:05Speaker 1: and they have the Lakers on deck on Amazon Prime,
- 1:43:08Speaker 1: so they might overlook Sacramento here. So I actually do
- 1:43:11Speaker 1: like Sacramento in this one. And it's actually probably my
- 1:43:15Speaker 1: strongest opinion in basketball today. In yeah, because there's no
- 1:43:20Speaker 1: college anymore.
- 1:43:21Speaker 2: So in the NBA. I was gonna say about.
- 1:43:23Speaker 1: Basketball Warriors down from fifteen and after fourteen, heres sixty
- 1:43:27Speaker 1: seven percent of tickets on the Warriors, ninety one percent
- 1:43:29Speaker 1: of the cash on the Kings.
- 1:43:31Speaker 2: The money is indicating on the Kings. I don't know
- 1:43:34Speaker 2: if I could quite get there with it, but I
- 1:43:36Speaker 2: agree with the Kings.
- 1:43:37Speaker 1: It's just their motivation is a little bit of question.
- 1:43:38Speaker 1: I know I have not been jumping into the NBA
- 1:43:40Speaker 1: at all late late season here, man, you really have
- 1:43:45Speaker 1: to pick good spots in the NBA late in the season,
- 1:43:47Speaker 1: and then we will be jumping into the playoffs, though
- 1:43:50Speaker 1: we'll probably have a decent amount of playoff volume because
- 1:43:53Speaker 1: it's easier to gauge motivation once you get there. Oklahoma
- 1:43:57Speaker 1: City at Lakers. Of course, we know Oaklama City just
- 1:44:00Speaker 1: absolutely wrecked the Lakers, and that was the game where
- 1:44:04Speaker 1: Luca and Reeves both got hurt. I'm pretty sure then
- 1:44:07Speaker 1: okay See crushed Utah after that.
- 1:44:09Speaker 2: Now they're going on on the road. Possible they overlook
- 1:44:12Speaker 2: the Lakers.
- 1:44:13Speaker 1: I mean, there's really not a whole lot to play
- 1:44:14Speaker 1: for for the Thunder at this point. They're pretty much
- 1:44:18Speaker 1: locked into the one seat at this point. It's not
- 1:44:20Speaker 1: completely definitive at this point, but still they're gonna be
- 1:44:24Speaker 1: laying a ton of points here against an injured Laker team.
- 1:44:27Speaker 1: And they just killed the Lakers with the Lakers starting
- 1:44:31Speaker 1: that game at least with all their players, so Oklahoma
- 1:44:33Speaker 1: City might not take them seriously. The Lakers are returning
- 1:44:36Speaker 1: home from that road trip, but it was only a
- 1:44:37Speaker 1: two game road trip. After they lost to Oklahoma City.
- 1:44:40Speaker 1: They did not play well against Dallas. They lost on
- 1:44:43Speaker 1: the road against Dallas. It really kind of had to
- 1:44:47Speaker 1: be the Lebron show in that game because the Lakers
- 1:44:51Speaker 1: just don't have anybody at this point. But I think
- 1:44:53Speaker 1: the Lakers might put in a better effort here man
- 1:44:56Speaker 1: after maybe kind of maybe they will be able to
- 1:44:59Speaker 1: pick the them selves back up off the mat after
- 1:45:01Speaker 1: a loss to Dallas. But it's more that I think
- 1:45:04Speaker 1: Oklahoma City just might not take them seriously here. Oklahoma
- 1:45:07Speaker 1: City's up to a seventeen point favorite.
- 1:45:10Speaker 2: We know the Lakers are.
- 1:45:11Speaker 1: Very shorthanded here, but that's factoring into the number eighty
- 1:45:14Speaker 1: four percent of tickets, ninety percent of the cash on
- 1:45:16Speaker 1: the thunder thunder or public side. I would lean towards
- 1:45:19Speaker 1: taking the points of the Lakers in that game. And
- 1:45:22Speaker 1: then Houston at Phoenix is the other NBC Peacock game.
- 1:45:25Speaker 1: Is an interesting game, but Phoenix might not have a
- 1:45:29Speaker 1: ton to play for here because Phoenix is basically locked
- 1:45:32Speaker 1: into the seven seed now, so it seems like they
- 1:45:35Speaker 1: very likely will be in that first playing game there
- 1:45:38Speaker 1: where they can win and get in.
- 1:45:40Speaker 2: Houston has a chance to jump the Lakers.
- 1:45:44Speaker 1: Man, So Houston might have a little bit more to
- 1:45:45Speaker 1: play for here because they could actually get a home
- 1:45:49Speaker 1: playoff series in the in the first round now, so
- 1:45:52Speaker 1: that matters a little bit. Phoenix has been good at
- 1:45:55Speaker 1: home though, I will give you that, and Phoenix might
- 1:45:57Speaker 1: not overlook Houston. It's you know, a game that might
- 1:46:00Speaker 1: get up for. Houston just beat Golden State in their
- 1:46:03Speaker 1: last game. It was with Curry back when Houston's also
- 1:46:05Speaker 1: got momentum six wins in a row. I don't think
- 1:46:09Speaker 1: they're gonna overlook Phoenix here, man. Like I said, Houston
- 1:46:13Speaker 1: does have something to play for and a little bit
- 1:46:14Speaker 1: more to play for than Phoenix does. Phoenixes are turning
- 1:46:17Speaker 1: on from a road trip as well. They've been on
- 1:46:19Speaker 1: the road since March thirtieth.
- 1:46:21Speaker 2: You know, I don't like.
- 1:46:21Speaker 1: Teams returning on from road trips, even though Houston is
- 1:46:25Speaker 1: one of the teams. Maybe they will get up for
- 1:46:27Speaker 1: But when you return on from the road, sometimes it's
- 1:46:31Speaker 1: difficult because you have to balance. You know, you have
- 1:46:33Speaker 1: to balance. You have to have a work life balance, man.
- 1:46:36Speaker 1: You have to balance family and basketball. But you know,
- 1:46:40Speaker 1: they are hosting a TV game here, so maybe they
- 1:46:42Speaker 1: do get up for it for that reason. The money
- 1:46:45Speaker 1: is all coming in on the Suns here. They flipped
- 1:46:47Speaker 1: to a one point favorite, fifty to fifty on the tickets,
- 1:46:49Speaker 1: ninety four percent of the cash on the suns. I
- 1:46:52Speaker 1: actually kind of like Houston though, man, because I think
- 1:46:54Speaker 1: they have more to play for here, so that would
- 1:46:56Speaker 1: be my opinion on that. That's the breakdown. I think
- 1:47:00Speaker 1: that was the last game, right, was that the last game? Uh? Yes,
- 1:47:03Speaker 1: that's gonna do it, ma'am. Thanks for hanging out everybody
- 1:47:07Speaker 1: one more time. The players today are the Baltimore Orioles
- 1:47:10Speaker 1: on the money line and Arizona Diamondbacks run line first
- 1:47:15Speaker 1: five innings. If you wanted to go money line, you
- 1:47:16Speaker 1: could as well. I mean, it kind of comes down
- 1:47:18Speaker 1: to where the better prices that you can find. But
- 1:47:20Speaker 1: we're being really selective. We're going with two baseball plays
- 1:47:24Speaker 1: and that's it for today.
- 1:47:25Speaker 2: Man. Thanks guys. Learn a tone on Instagram, learn a
- 1:47:28Speaker 2: tone on Twitter. Check it all out.
- 1:47:29Speaker 1: You get Subscribe to me on Twitter if you want
- 1:47:31Speaker 1: to get in a group chat with me. That's not
- 1:47:33Speaker 1: very active right now though Jeffrey is in there. Like,
- 1:47:38Speaker 1: subscribe to the channel here, man, let's boost this channel
- 1:47:41Speaker 1: more and more. Tell everybody about it, you know, throw
- 1:47:44Speaker 1: the get the word out there, man. I like subscribe,
- 1:47:48Speaker 1: you know, put good comments on here.
- 1:47:50Speaker 2: Subscribe here.
- 1:47:50Speaker 1: You'll get the notifications when I go live because I'm
- 1:47:53Speaker 1: a little bit sporadic with it in the morning, but
- 1:47:55Speaker 1: going live a little bit earlier recently. I don't know
- 1:47:57Speaker 1: if we're gonna continue doing that or not. I like
- 1:47:59Speaker 1: to give myself a little bit of a break before
- 1:48:01Speaker 1: I then go get lunch, so you know, or have lunch,
- 1:48:06Speaker 1: depending on what I'm gonna do. We're on audio as well,
- 1:48:10Speaker 1: as you can check that out Spreak or listening on
- 1:48:12Speaker 1: Spreaker actually gives me a boost and helps me out
- 1:48:14Speaker 1: a little bit more. We're on Spotify and Apple as well.
- 1:48:18Speaker 1: Listening over there give me good reviews. That helps me out.
- 1:48:21Speaker 2: YouTube we have covered in Yuk is also.
- 1:48:23Speaker 1: A Yuk YouTube channel that I have, so you can
- 1:48:26Speaker 1: check that out. Patreon dot com, sash learn to Toad
- 1:48:30Speaker 1: where again, I gotta be better at doing what I'm
- 1:48:32Speaker 1: doing over there, I apologize. Gotta do some live yuke
- 1:48:36Speaker 1: jams man so people can just kind of hang out
- 1:48:38Speaker 1: with me, similar to what ASPA does. So I should
- 1:48:40Speaker 1: start doing that. I should pick a day and start
- 1:48:42Speaker 1: doing it. Maybe I should do it Wednesday nights or
- 1:48:44Speaker 1: something because there is no more Tower Gang.
- 1:48:47Speaker 2: And then loser Cast.
- 1:48:49Speaker 1: Speaking of comedy shows that I'm mom, we will have
- 1:48:51Speaker 1: a loser Cast episode tonight and I have not picked.
- 1:48:54Speaker 2: A loser yet. I don't know what I'm gonna do.
- 1:48:55Speaker 2: I gotta think long and hard about it. Man.
- 1:48:59Speaker 1: For tonight's you can check that out as well. That'll
- 1:49:01Speaker 1: be I think at ten pm. There might be a
- 1:49:04Speaker 1: guest on the show tonight.
- 1:49:05Speaker 2: I don't know. Hopefully it will be less messy than
- 1:49:08Speaker 2: last week. Just have good audio, man' That's my main
- 1:49:14Speaker 2: thing that I will say. You know.
- 1:49:16Speaker 1: I mean, it's good if we have good rapport, good banter,
- 1:49:19Speaker 1: but bad audio can completely demolish the show.
- 1:49:22Speaker 2: So you know that's gonna do it. I appreciate it. Guys.
- 1:49:25Speaker 2: Let's get some more wins today. Let's keep the streak going. Peace,