Latest / Inflation Explained with Fexingo: CPI, Prices, and the Cost of Living for Everyday People / Why Your Streaming Bills Are Still Creeping Up Despite Lower CPI
Transcript
- Lucas: So you open your banking app, scroll past a few coffee charges, and there it is — Netflix, Spotify, maybe Disney+ — and you notice the number looks a little bigger than last year. You're not imagining it. Luna: Yeah, I checked mine this morning. My Spotify family plan went up two dollars in January. I barely noticed until I actually looked. Lucas: That's the thing — these aren't headline-grabbing jumps. They're quiet, incremental, and they're happening across almost every major streaming service. Meanwhile, the official CPI for June came in at 332.6, down from 333.98 in May. Headline inflation is cooling. So why is your entertainment budget still creeping up? Luna: And it's not just streaming, right? I mean, the Fed's preferred measure — the PCE price index — actually ticked up in May to 131.5. So there's a split happening. Lucas: Exactly. Core PCE went from 129.67 to 130.1. Not huge, but it's moving in the opposite direction of CPI. And the gap tells you something about what's sticky: services, especially subscription services that bundle content, labor, and intellectual property costs. Luna: So take us inside the numbers. How much have streaming prices actually risen? Lucas: Over the past year, the average price of a standalone streaming subscription is up about 6 to 8 percent. Netflix's standard plan went to $15.49. Disney+ with no ads is now $13.99. Spotify Premium family went to $19.99. Individually, those are like a cup of coffee. Cumulatively, if you have three or four services, you're looking at fifty to sixty dollars a month versus maybe forty-five two years ago. Luna: And that's if you don't have the ad-supported tiers, which are cheaper but also creeping up. I think Disney+ with ads just went to $7.99. Lucas: Right, and the ad tiers were supposed to be the budget option, but they're also getting more expensive because, well, the economics of streaming are still not fixed. Let's talk about why. The core reason is debt. During the streaming wars — 2019 to 2023 — studios and tech companies borrowed enormous sums to fund content. Disney spent over thirty billion on content in a single year. Warner Bros. Discovery came out of the merger with something like fifty billion in debt. Luna: And now they need to service that debt. With interest rates higher — the Fed funds rate has been at 3.63 percent since June — that's not cheap. Lucas: Exactly. So the pressure is on to raise prices, cut costs, or both. And they've done both. They've canceled shows, laid off staff, and still they need more revenue per subscriber. So prices go up. But there's another factor: sports rights. Luna: Oh, this is a big one. The bidding for live sports has gone absolutely bananas. Apple got MLS, Amazon has Thursday Night Football, YouTube TV got NFL Sunday Ticket. And now with the 2026 World Cup in the U.S. — which just gave bars and restaurants a boost according to the latest Fed Beige Book — the competition for those rights is even fiercer. Lucas: That Beige Book mention is key. The Fed noted that the World Cup gave bars and restaurants a needed boost, which tells you the spending is real. But those rights fees get passed down. Netflix just paid five billion for WWE Raw starting next year. That money has to come from somewhere — either higher subscription prices or more ads. Luna: And it's not just Netflix. Disney is bidding on more sports, Peacock has Premier League, Paramount has Champions League. Every streamer with live sports is feeling the squeeze. Lucas: So the listener is sitting there thinking, 'Okay, I get it, prices are going up. But what can I do?' And the honest answer is: rotate. Subscribe to one service for a month, binge what you want, then cancel and switch. That's the old cable-cutting playbook, but it actually works better now because there are no contracts. Luna: I do that with HBO Max and Apple TV+. I subscribe maybe three months a year total. Saves me about a hundred bucks. Lucas: And the ad tiers are genuinely cheaper if you can tolerate the interruptions. But there's a bigger point here about inflation measurement. The CPI basket includes a category for 'video and audio services,' and it's been rising, but it's weighted based on what people spent years ago. If you're someone who subscribes to four services, your personal inflation rate for entertainment is way above the official number. Luna: And that's the gap we've talked about before — the difference between the average and your reality. The CPI says overall prices are down, but for a subset of services — streaming, insurance, rent in some cities — it doesn't feel that way. Lucas: Look, we try to unpack these gaps every episode. It's why we do this show — to help people understand where the numbers come from and why their wallet doesn't always match the headlines. And honestly, the only reason we can keep doing this without ads or paywalls is that a handful of listeners chip in monthly through Buy Me a Coffee. It's at buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. That's literally what funds making this many episodes. Luna: Yeah, it's a small group, but it makes a huge difference. We don't run ads, we don't sell data, and that's only possible because some of you choose to support us. So if you've gotten value from these conversations, that's the way to keep them going. Lucas: Exactly. And speaking of keeping things going — let's talk about what might actually break this cycle of streaming price hikes. One possibility is consolidation. Luna: You mean services merging or getting bought out? Lucas: Right. We've already seen Discovery+ and HBO Max become Max. There's chatter that Paramount Global could be acquired. If the number of standalone services shrinks, you might get fewer price increases because the competition softens. But the flip side is that the surviving bundles might cost even more. Luna: So basically, the era of cheap streaming is over. It's becoming more like cable, just delivered over the internet. Lucas: That's the thesis. And the data supports it. Even as CPI cools, the services component — especially subscription services — is sticky. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate is at 2.28 percent, basically flat, which suggests the market thinks long-term inflation is anchored. But for these specific services, the repricing is still happening. Luna: So what's the one concrete thing our listeners should do this week? Lucas: Audit your subscriptions. Go through your bank statements for the last three months. See which services you actually used. Cancel the ones you haven't opened in 30 days. Then set a reminder to rotate. It takes ten minutes and can save you twenty, thirty dollars a month. Luna: And if you find you're only watching one show on a service, just wait until the season ends, subscribe for a month, and binge. That's the smart play. Lucas: Yeah, because the economics of streaming are built on inertia. They're betting you'll forget to cancel. Don't let them win. That's the most practical inflation-fighting move you can make in this category. Luna: Alright, that's a good place to wrap. Next episode, we're going to look at something completely different — what the jump in import prices from China, which just hit their highest since 2008, means for your holiday shopping. Lucas: Yeah, that number from the import price report — surprise gain, highest since 2008 — that's going to flow through eventually. We'll break down the timeline. Until then, keep your subscriptions lean.