Latest / Pod Save America / The People vs Donald Trump

Transcript

The People vs Donald Trump · Pod Save America

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: I'm Jon Favreau. I'm Jon Lovett. I'm Tommy Vitor. On
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: today's show, Iran's retaliatory strike on Israel scrambles U.S. politics,
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: and the New York Times has the latest poll to
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: show some good news for Joe Biden. But first... It's
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: an assault.
• 0:34
  Speaker 3: On America, and that's why I'm very proud to be here.
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: This is an assault on our country. Jury selection in
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: the people of the state of New York versus Donald J.
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: Trump has officially begun, though after one day, not a
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: single juror has been picked. None of them made it
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: past the first deck. The Republican nominee is the first
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: former president to stand trial for criminal charges. He has
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: pleaded not guilty to 34 felony counts of falsifying business
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: records to conceal violations of state and federal election laws.
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: In this case, the alleged violation involves a hush money
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: payment that Trump made in the weeks before the 2016
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: election to keep voters from finding out about his affair
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: with porn star Stormy Daniels. Since we have no law
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: degrees and one decent LSAT score between the three of us,
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: strict scrutiny's Melissa Murray is going to talk to Tommy
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: a bit later about the strength of District Attorney Alvin
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: Bragg's case. But since Trump will be the first presidential
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: nominee to spend the first two months of the general
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: election in a courtroom, nearly a quarter of the entire race.
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: Two months. Between now and November, he could end up
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: spending just on this trial. Could be longer. So, yeah,
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: we're going to dig into the politics. Let's start big picture.
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: Most people aren't familiar with the details of this case,
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: let alone that it's happening, beyond something about Trump paying
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: hush money to a porn star. If an undecided voter
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: asked you guys why this should matter in the context
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: of this election, what would you say? Lovett, you want
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: to go first?
• 2:02
  Speaker 4: I was thinking about that question. And first of all,
• 2:05
  Speaker 4: I do think sometimes you don't need to say more than,
• 2:07
  Speaker 4: He paid hush money to a porn star to hide
• 2:09
  Speaker 4: it from voters.
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: You would hope.
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: But I do think if you did feel the need
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: to add on to that, you could say that, you know,
• 2:15
  Speaker 4: he had his goons cook the books and commit fraud
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: to hide the payments. His own lawyer went to federal
• 2:20
  Speaker 4: prison for helping to commit the fraud. I think that, like,
• 2:23
  Speaker 4: most people view it as unethical and illegal. But you
• 2:27
  Speaker 4: can also say he did it for the same reasons.
• 2:29
  Speaker 4: He cut his own taxes when he was president. Why
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: he spends all day reading about himself on the Internet.
• 2:34
  Speaker 4: Why he tried to overturn the election in 2024. He
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: is only thinking about himself. And that is even worse
• 2:41
  Speaker 4: now with all these criminal cases. He's thinking about himself
• 2:44
  Speaker 4: day in and day out. He is doing what is
• 2:46
  Speaker 4: good for him. He is not doing what is good
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: for the country. He is always looking for an angle.
• 2:50
  Speaker 4: And he believes that there should be one set of
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: rules for him and his rich friends and one set
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: of rules for everybody else.
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: Tom, you got anything to add? No, I think it's good.
• 2:58
  Speaker 5: I mean, I think I would just say, like you guys,
• 3:00
  Speaker 5: you undecided voter, you deserve to know all the relevant
• 3:03
  Speaker 5: facts about a candidate before you vote. And in this case,
• 3:06
  Speaker 5: Donald Trump denied you that knowledge by illegally coordinating with
• 3:10
  Speaker 5: a news organization to keep news out of the press.
• 3:13
  Speaker 5: And he thought that information was important. We know that
• 3:15
  Speaker 5: because he paid 130 grand to suppress it. And we
• 3:19
  Speaker 5: know because he is constantly bitching about social media sites,
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: suppressing information about Hunter Biden, who last time I checked
• 3:24
  Speaker 5: never ran for president in the 2020 race. So Trump
• 3:28
  Speaker 5: broke campaign finance laws to deny you access to information
• 3:31
  Speaker 5: you deserved. And we can't let candidates do that. Because
• 3:33
  Speaker 5: our political system is already a mess and money is
• 3:35
  Speaker 5: a wash through it and distorting in bad ways. And
• 3:37
  Speaker 5: now it'll become even more broken.
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he's he's a liar and a cheater. Cheated in 2016.
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: Cheated in 2020. Trying to cheat again in 2024. Cheated
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: on Alania. Hey, voter, if you know, if you had
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: an affair with a porn star and you were running
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: for office, would you be able to cover it up?
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: Would you be able to pay a bunch of people
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: to bury stories, including a major media outlet like the
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: National Enquirer? The whole scheme. He's got the National Enquirer
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: helping him out. He's paying things. He's got shell companies.
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: It is, though. It's one set of rules for him,
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: one set of rules for everyone else, and all he
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: cares about is himself.
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: Look, we all have somebody in our life. They're always
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: surrounded by chaos. They're always dealing with their own bullshit.
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: They're always blaming everyone else but themselves. They're always saying like,
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: once I solve this, then everything's going to be smooth
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: sailing for me. You have somebody in your life like
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: that and they're entertaining. Sometimes they're at the table and
• 4:32
  Speaker 4: you realize you are that person. But you don't try.
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: But you know what I mean?
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: That person who's like, their life's always a mess and
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: they always blame everybody else. They may be fun for
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: a while, but you don't ask them to walk your dog.
• 4:45
  Speaker 4: You don't ask them to water the plants. You leave
• 4:48
  Speaker 4: them alone.
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: Don't give them the nuclear coats.
• 4:49
  Speaker 4: You don't give them the nuclear coats. I got that right.
• 4:51
  Speaker 4: That was my next thing. Nuclear weapons. You don't give
• 4:54
  Speaker 4: it to them.
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: And also, this fits within Trump's larger gestalt here, which is,
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: Could he have silenced her without breaking the law? Yeah, probably.
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: There's nothing inherently illegal about a hush money payment, but
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: because he's an idiot and a criminal.
• 5:11
  Speaker 4: I know, I know. But I remember John Edwards went
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: through this problem, which is that if you pay them
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: through the campaign, it's an illegal use of campaign funds.
• 5:18
  Speaker 4: If you don't pay them through the campaign... It's an
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: in-kind contribution. You can really get fucked by the fact
• 5:23
  Speaker 4: that sometimes it's kind of the legality of paying off
• 5:25
  Speaker 4: somebody you've slept with to keep it from the voters.
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: It's a challenge.
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: It's a challenge.
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: And we've always said that.
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: Well, and part of what saved John Edwards was that, like, he...
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: Nothing saved John Edwards. Well, he didn't get convicted. That's true.
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: But his argument was, I was trying to conceal it
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: from my wife. Not the voters, my wife, who was
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: dying of cancer at the time. Donald Trump, I think
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: that Alvin Bragg's going to have plenty of evidence that
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump was not doing this to conceal it from
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: Melania and Barron.
• 5:49
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: But he was doing it to conceal it from the voters,
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: which is why you have Karen McDougal, the Playboy model,
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: who he also buried another story about an affair with,
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: with the National Enquirer. And he had a whole operation system. Listen.
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: Known as Catch and Kill.
• 6:04
  Speaker 4: It was known as Catch and Kill. And honestly, I
• 6:06
  Speaker 4: put a gag order on me because I thought about
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: this a lot in my past. And these issues, all
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: for the best.
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: What else you got, John?
• 6:15
  Speaker 6: Anyway.
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: Anyway. Let's talk about how Trump is handling this trial.
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: So far, it seems like he could have used a
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: few more Diet Cokes before Monday's hearing. Based on reporting
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: from Maggie Haberman, let's listen. Forty minutes ago, you wrote
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: an observation that I was very surprised. Trump appears to
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: be sleeping, his head keeps dropping down, and his mouth
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: goes slack. Tell us about that.
• 6:37
  Speaker 6: Well, Jake, he appeared to be asleep, and repeatedly his
• 6:41
  Speaker 6: head would fall down. There have been other moments in
• 6:43
  Speaker 6: other trials, like the Agent Carroll trial, which was around
• 6:46
  Speaker 6: the corner in January, where he appeared very still and
• 6:50
  Speaker 6: seemed as if he might be sleeping, but then he
• 6:52
  Speaker 6: would move. This time, he didn't pay attention to a
• 6:55
  Speaker 6: note that his lawyer, Todd Blanche, passed him. His jaw
• 6:58
  Speaker 6: kept falling on his chest and his mouth kept going slack. Now,
• 7:02
  Speaker 6: you know, sometimes people do fall asleep during court proceedings,
• 7:05
  Speaker 6: but it's notable given the intensity of this morning and
• 7:08
  Speaker 6: a lot of what was being marketed.
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's rather surprising. I almost wanted to cut this
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: clip Right after Jake goes on this long, there's like, Maggie,
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: you just reported that he looked like he was falling asleep. Well, yes, Jake,
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: he was falling asleep. I know. Maggie's so funny in
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: matter of fact.
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: I know.
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: I know. Apparently, apparently this got back to Trump.
• 7:28
  Speaker 6: Yes.
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: During the trial, because then as he was walking out,
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: the reporter, another reporter said he was glaring at Maggie
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: as he walked out.
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: Well, so one thing that Maggie Haberman pointed out in
• 7:37
  Speaker 4: her live posting about this is that a Trump aide
• 7:41
  Speaker 4: named Natalie Harp is in the courtroom. And she's apparently
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: one of Trump's favorites because She has a wireless printer
• 7:49
  Speaker 4: that she uses to print out good news to show him.
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: Oh, she's the one who follows him on a golf
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: cart and does it sometimes? How do I hire one
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: of those people?
• 7:56
  Speaker 6: What?
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: I don't have to read Twitter anymore. Someone just gives
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: me good tweets.
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: I think it'd be good for you. Maybe you don't
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: have to use your phone at the urinal. There's somebody
• 8:06
  Speaker 4: waiting outside the bathroom.
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: It's not going to get crazy.
• 8:08
  Speaker 5: I want you guys to know that I asked Melissa Murray,
• 8:10
  Speaker 5: at what point in the duration of a nap does
• 8:13
  Speaker 5: it go from misdemeanor to felony?
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: So stay tuned for that. Oh, sick. Cover-up insomnia. That's
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: a good update.
• 8:18
  Speaker 7: All right.
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: So he was a little sleepy during the trial, but
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: before the trial, for weeks before the trial, we've heard
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: him talking about how this is an assault on America
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: in that clip at the top. He's been ranting and
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: raving on his fake Twitter. He's saying, quote, I want
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: my voice back. Yes. Once again, just being silenced everywhere.
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: Never hear from him. That's the Little Mermaid. Yeah, that's
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: the Little Mermaid. He's just like Ariel. He's calling this
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: the Biden-Manhattan witch hunt case, which is a little wordy.
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: That doesn't sing. But I'm sure they're all calling it
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: like the Biden case, the Biden trials. This is what
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: the Trump campaign wants to do now because everything is,
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: you know. The campaign's raising money off the trial, getting
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: surrogates to talk about it, and they told Playbook that, quote,
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: being stuck in Manhattan four days a week will not
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: affect Trump's ability to communicate. No shit. Uh, so fair enough,
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: but I guess the question is what he communicates. Playbook
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: went on to write, quote, he can just as easily
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: ignore the hush money case and stick to campaign messaging
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: during his arrival and departures and lunch break, which is,
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: I laughed at, but then I was like, yeah, for,
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: for any normal campaign, that might be what the hell
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: that the candidate do and what the candidate wants to do.
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: Like you're dealing with this legal stuff. Let's have you
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: kind of program with something else. What do you guys
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: think about him talking and posting nonstop about this trial
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: for the next six to eight weeks of the general?
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: Do you think his campaign is OK with that or
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: they just resigned to that because it's Trump? Would he
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: even be able to break through with other messages?
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm sort of trying to imagine. First of all,
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: of course, they're resigned to it. What else are you
• 9:43
  Speaker 4: going to fucking do?
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: He's in there.
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: He was read, read literal rights. He has to stay
• 9:47
  Speaker 4: there in a son of fucking paddy wagon to find him.
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: But but the judge said to him.
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: But, you know, what is the version of this that's like,
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: I don't know, the best they can hope for from
• 9:56
  Speaker 4: Donald Trump is him angrily storming out of the courtrooms. like,
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: Biden's trying to throw me in jail. Meanwhile, the border,
• 10:04
  Speaker 4: and then two minutes on the border, right? That's what
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: they're going to hope they can get out of this.
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's exactly right. I mean, yeah, you're in Manhattan,
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: not rural Kansas.
• 10:12
  Speaker 5: You lose like the local touch from events, you lose
• 10:14
  Speaker 5: the local news coverage. But yeah, I mean, I think
• 10:17
  Speaker 5: if his staff could decide what he was going to
• 10:19
  Speaker 5: talk about every single day and get him to stick
• 10:20
  Speaker 5: to it, they would focus on immigration and the border
• 10:22
  Speaker 5: and they would demagogue crime and chaos. But Trump is
• 10:25
  Speaker 5: a narcissist, no matter what, like, even if he wasn't
• 10:28
  Speaker 5: in the courtroom, he was going to be whining about
• 10:29
  Speaker 5: himself and bitching and moaning about the deep state. And
• 10:32
  Speaker 5: that's obviously broken through and resonated. But like you were
• 10:36
  Speaker 5: saying earlier, it's most effective level when he makes it about,
• 10:38
  Speaker 5: I'm the one taking shots on your behalf from the
• 10:41
  Speaker 5: deep state, from the liberals, because next they're coming after you,
• 10:45
  Speaker 5: if he makes it like a bigger message.
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: And I don't know. We'll see if he can do
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: that here. Yeah. And the only times he's done that
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: is either like when he's at a rally and he's
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: got a prompter and they've written that line in, you know,
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: because they're trying to work with what they got, the campaign,
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: the Trump campaign.
• 10:58
  Speaker 6: Right.
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: And so they're OK, he's going to make this trial
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: all by himself, all these charges about himself. But at
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: least we can pivot to being like, oh, I'm doing
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: it on behalf of all that kind of shit. And
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: there is polling that shows that people believe these charges
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: are politically motivated, even the same polls that say, that
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: they're serious charges and that Trump is probably guilty of
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: a crime, but also that they're politically motivated.
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: Yeah. Sign me up.
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: I'm one of those people. Fuck yeah. I don't think
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: that's the case in any of the other trials, but
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: like the more he talks about himself and how he's
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: a victim and a martyr and like, you know, America's
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: Nelson Mandela, uh, Like, I do think the more he
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: risks losing people who aren't Trump fanatics. Like, I just
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: don't think you can spend six to eight weeks talking
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: about yourself and what a victim you are.
• 11:42
  Speaker 5: The flip side of that, the reason there is real
• 11:44
  Speaker 5: political risk here is Trump does best when he is
• 11:46
  Speaker 5: able to dominate the news coverage all day, every day,
• 11:49
  Speaker 5: and just make himself the center of gravity the way
• 11:52
  Speaker 5: he did in 2016, the way he's struggled to do
• 11:54
  Speaker 5: that more recently. So I think to the extent there's
• 11:56
  Speaker 5: a political risk to Joe Biden or anyone else is that, like,
• 11:59
  Speaker 5: Donald Trump once again blots out the sun and he
• 12:01
  Speaker 5: bets on this being a low turnout election. for just
• 12:04
  Speaker 5: the most intense partisans on both sides. And you think, well,
• 12:08
  Speaker 5: me being the victim, fighting for you as the victim
• 12:11
  Speaker 5: is what motivates my folks.
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think they're in a little bit of still
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: in the primary mode, though, Republican primary with this message, right?
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: Where it's like, they think that everyone loves him. He
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: thinks everyone loves him. He's unbeatable in the primary and
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: in grievance works with Republican primary voters. I just, there
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: is a version where he and the campaign are disciplined
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: enough to constantly make this about these people are after me,
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: but I'm in it for you. I do not think
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: he's disciplined enough to do that. And I do think
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: that the wine, you know, he whined, he was whining
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: today after the trial about how he's not going to
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: be able to go to Barron's graduation, which the judge
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: has not ruled on yet. Uh, the judge said, I
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: can't rule on that yet because it's not till May
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: 17th whining that he can't go to the Supreme court
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: for oral arguments over, over his, uh, over his contention
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: that being president lets you do any of the crimes
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: you want.
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: So like, I don't know that that's like if people,
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: to the extent that people tune in, to the extent
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: that people catch this, I don't know if that's going
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: to really land with people.
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 13:09
  Speaker 4: I mean, I do think Trump plotting out the sun
• 13:11
  Speaker 4: certainly helped him become the nominee. I don't think it
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: helped him become president as much. And if you look
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: at like, kind of blur your eyes, we're going to
• 13:18
  Speaker 4: talk about the Santa poll, the time Santa poll, but like,
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: there's a kind, there's a way in which people vaguely
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: remember Trump as a divisive figure, but they're losing touch
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: with just how negative and awful he was, and only
• 13:30
  Speaker 4: with rose-colored glasses, remembering the economy before the pandemic. One
• 13:33
  Speaker 4: of the numbers is that 70% in the Times poll
• 13:35
  Speaker 4: said that he'd said something that was offensive, but they
• 13:37
  Speaker 4: were in the distant past. And I do think Trump
• 13:39
  Speaker 4: out there every day just sort of just riffing is
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: going to put the Trump they hate back in their
• 13:44
  Speaker 4: minds because people view Biden as a less divisive figure
• 13:48
  Speaker 4: and a figure more capable of uniting the country. That's
• 13:50
  Speaker 4: a good point for Joe Biden to have.
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: Day in, day out. On day one of the trial,
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: the DA asked the judge to hold Trump in contempt.
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: for violating his gag order in at least three posts
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: where he attacked witnesses like Michael Cohen. The DA wants
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: a fine of only $ 1, 000 per post. $ 1, 000 per post?
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: In other words, a $ 1, 000 post fee. But he also
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: did ask the judge to jail Trump if he does
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: it again. The judge hasn't ruled on that yet. There's
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: going to be a separate hearing on that, I believe,
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: on April 24th. But Judge Mershon already threatened Trump with
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: jail time if he disrupts the trial or if he
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: doesn't show up. Do you guys think Trump has the
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: discipline to shut the fuck up and follow the gag order?
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: Or do you think he actually wants to be thrown
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: in jail, as some people have suggested?
• 14:35
  Speaker 4: I don't believe that for a fucking second.
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: I'm with you.
• 14:38
  Speaker 4: Look, if you go back, I remember.
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: I think he wants people to think he's not afraid
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: of being thrown in jail.
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: He definitely wants that. If you go back, I remember during,
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: I guess it was during the 2016 campaign when Trump
• 14:47
  Speaker 4: was being deposed, I believe because of the lawsuit around
• 14:51
  Speaker 4: Jose Andres pulling the restaurant.
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: Oh, yeah, that's right.
• 14:54
  Speaker 4: And from the hotel in D.C.
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: Man, we are stuck in 2016 forever.
• 14:58
  Speaker 4: Yeah, listen, we did something wrong in our previous playthrough
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: and now we're learning our lesson. But if you watch
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: those depositions, there's a control Trump has when he really
• 15:08
  Speaker 4: needs to have it that we forget that Trump does.
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: I think that one of his great tricks is convincing
• 15:13
  Speaker 4: people he doesn't respond to incentives.
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: He does.
• 15:15
  Speaker 4: I think what he is counting on is that he
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: gets a certain number of very clear warnings before the
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: last warning, before he gets thrown in jail. And I
• 15:22
  Speaker 4: think that is when he will suddenly discover he knows
• 15:24
  Speaker 4: how to shut the fuck up. That would be my,
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: if I was going to predict, that would be my prediction.
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 15:28
  Speaker 5: Historically speaking, he has been disciplined during depositions. He can
• 15:32
  Speaker 5: pull it together when he has to. I also think
• 15:35
  Speaker 5: there's a lot of reporting, Maggie Abrams reported on this,
• 15:37
  Speaker 5: that he's really scared of jail and he really doesn't
• 15:40
  Speaker 5: want to go to jail.
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: Understandably, either way. I think he'd do well.
• 15:43
  Speaker 5: But look, I'll argue the other side of it because
• 15:45
  Speaker 5: why not? I mean, you could imagine the scenario where
• 15:48
  Speaker 5: the ultimate example of the system being rigged and unfair
• 15:52
  Speaker 5: is Donald Trump getting thrown into jail, for speech made
• 15:56
  Speaker 5: in the context of a presidential campaign. And that's a
• 16:00
  Speaker 5: very high stakes gamble. The outcome would really suck for him. But,
• 16:04
  Speaker 5: you know, you could see someone arguing for it.
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: Well, and that goes to sort of Lovett's point, I think,
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: where it's the raptor testing the fences kind of thing, right?
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: Where he's going right up to them because if he
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: does end up getting thrown in jail for one that's
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: not a clear-cut threat to the life of a witness
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: or something like that, you're sort of like, eh, should
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: he have been thrown in jail? Then the debate becomes,
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: that specific tweet was that we should that have landed
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: him in jail is that fair and that becomes a
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: imagine being the consultant pitching this idea in the room all.
• 16:33
  Speaker 5: Right all right no bad ideas in a brainstorm what
• 16:37
  Speaker 5: if you went to.
• 16:38
  Speaker 4: Jail i i do i also can i put on
• 16:40
  Speaker 4: my tinfoil hat for a second please i do think
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: so a trump i came over the weekend there was
• 16:47
  Speaker 4: sort of a trump statement about their kind of goals
• 16:50
  Speaker 4: and expectations for this trial. And it was that they
• 16:52
  Speaker 4: don't think that they can hope for.
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: Goal, not guilty.
• 16:56
  Speaker 4: Well, no, they said actually, they actually said they don't
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: believe they can get to acquittal, but they think they
• 17:00
  Speaker 4: can get to a hung jury. So hung jury means
• 17:02
  Speaker 4: that there's going to be some, they're there. They are
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: in terms of their jury pool, pretty well fucked. This
• 17:07
  Speaker 4: is Manhattan, not even New York city. They don't even
• 17:09
  Speaker 4: get the, the, the, the, the, the Trump people from
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: Staten Island. They just have Manhattan, Manhattan, is a borough
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: of 1.6 million people, only 85,000 people voted for Trump.
• 17:20
  Speaker 4: So I feel like a little bit about what Trump
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: has been doing is putting out an APB. to every
• 17:24
  Speaker 4: one of his fucking freaks, which is to show up,
• 17:27
  Speaker 4: if he can get one, his whole, the future of
• 17:29
  Speaker 4: this country may hang on whether or not one Trump
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: freak can hide his freak, freak self long enough to
• 17:36
  Speaker 4: get on that jury and then just cross their arms
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: and say, absolutely not, not guilty. I will never change
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: my mind.
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: Fuck you, libs. And they show up wearing their totally
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: impartial juror t-shirt from Crooked that you can get at crooked.com. Yeah.
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: Just to say, how about that? How about that contextual mention, Jordan? Yeah.
• 17:54
  Speaker 4: Jordan, who does a lovely job trying to market our
• 17:57
  Speaker 4: fucking business.
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: Great job here. That's what I'm saying. Gave him a
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: shout out. Yeah.
• 18:02
  Speaker 5: I mean, Melissa and I talk about this more, about
• 18:04
  Speaker 5: the jury selection process, the questionnaire that you're allowed to
• 18:08
  Speaker 5: give these jurors. But there's also all these jury consultants
• 18:10
  Speaker 5: that are out there scouring the Internet to see where
• 18:13
  Speaker 5: you've donated, where you've registered, what you've said on social media. So,
• 18:17
  Speaker 5: you know, odds are we'll be able to identify this
• 18:20
  Speaker 5: kind of, you know.
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: So my feeling is you figure, yeah, there's a lot
• 18:25
  Speaker 4: of people that don't vote in Manhattan, but if you
• 18:27
  Speaker 4: care enough to try to fuck up the justice system
• 18:28
  Speaker 4: on behalf of Trump, you probably voted in 2020. So
• 18:30
  Speaker 4: you talk about 85,000. How many of those are true, true,
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: true diehards? You say about a third, right? That's 28,000
• 18:37
  Speaker 4: people out of roughly 1.4 million adults in Manhattan. That's
• 18:41
  Speaker 4: about 2% of the population. 2% of the population. Can
• 18:44
  Speaker 4: they get a jury that's 98 out of 100, 10,
• 18:47
  Speaker 4: 12 times? It's about two thirds. That's about two thirds, 75%. Yeah.
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: I just also think there's a large, large pool of
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: people in Manhattan who didn't vote either for Trump or
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: against Trump. And they could be radicalized by the propaganda
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: right on site.
• 19:03
  Speaker 4: That's true.
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: That's also true. Because it did happen to a lot
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: of their fellow countrymen and women.
• 19:08
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it took a little time.
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: It did take a little time.
• 19:10
  Speaker 4: Although you really get the personal exposure. You really get
• 19:13
  Speaker 4: to be there with the leader. You get the full.
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: You get to be.
• 19:15
  Speaker 4: There right there.
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: You can smell the Kool-Aid. He's nodding off. He's glaring
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: at Maggie. You got the whole show.
• 19:21
  Speaker 4: I mean, the reporting about what the jurors have been experiencing,
• 19:25
  Speaker 4: just coming in and being like, holy shit, it's Donald Trump.
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: Can you imagine this? That's so funny.
• 19:31
  Speaker 4: You show up for jury duty. You think you're going
• 19:33
  Speaker 4: to get some fucking hit and run? No, you're on
• 19:35
  Speaker 4: the brag Trump case.
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: That rules. If you have a lot of free time
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: in your life.
• 19:39
  Speaker 4: I would say anything to get on that trial, knock
• 19:41
  Speaker 4: on wood.
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: Just kidding.
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: I would tell the truth. I wouldn't talk about my
• 19:45
  Speaker 4: liberal podcast. I'd tell the truth.
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: Good thing you're a resident of LA. All right, let's
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: talk about the broader political implications of the trial. There's
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: a general consensus that this isn't the most politically damaging
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: of the four criminal cases against Trump, but that doesn't
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: mean it won't have an effect on the race. Clearly,
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: most Republican primary voters didn't have a problem supporting a
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: candidate facing 88 felony counts. We were also reminded over
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: the weekend that even Republican politicians... who didn't support Trump
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: in the primary, are still willing to support a convicted
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: felon in the general. Here's New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: talking to George Stephanopoulos over the weekend.
• 20:18
  Speaker 8: So just to sum up, you support him for president
• 20:20
  Speaker 8: even if he's convicted in classified documents, you support him
• 20:22
  Speaker 8: for president even though you believe he contributed to an insurrection,
• 20:26
  Speaker 8: you support him for president even though you believe he's
• 20:28
  Speaker 8: lying about the last election, you support him for president
• 20:30
  Speaker 8: even if he's convicted in the Manhattan case. I just
• 20:32
  Speaker 8: want to say the answer to that is yes, correct?
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, me and 51% of America.
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: And if 51 percent of America jumped off the Brooklyn
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: Bridge before a fucking barge hit it, would you do that?
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: If he could, if it means that he could still
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: have a future in Republican politics, even if he's dead.
• 20:49
  Speaker 5: Good for Stephanopoulos for the way he pressed him on that.
• 20:53
  Speaker 5: Sununu looked completely humiliated and angry in that moment and
• 20:57
  Speaker 5: just like morally bankrupt. This is a guy who a
• 20:59
  Speaker 5: couple of weeks ago was endorsing Nikki Haley and attacking
• 21:02
  Speaker 5: Trump left and right.
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: Now he's just bending the knee. Honestly, like sometimes you
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: think I have more respect for like the diehard Trumpers
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: than people like Kristen. Oh, absolutely. I won't go on
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: a long rant because I'm sure our friends at the
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: Bulwark will do it. My first thought when I saw
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: the Kristen. Let's stay in our lane. We're here to help.
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: We're going to be very upset about this.
• 21:19
  Speaker 4: We're here to carry Biden's water.
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: Just pathetic. Just absolutely pathetic. So, of course, 51 percent
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: of American voters haven't indicated they're OK with a convicted
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: felon as president. But what do you guys make of
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: the polling on this whole situation so far?
• 21:33
  Speaker 5: I mean, I think we know that if people are
• 21:34
  Speaker 5: informed about the charges, they think they're either very or
• 21:36
  Speaker 5: somewhat serious. There was a poll where only 24 percent
• 21:39
  Speaker 5: of respondents said they would vote for Trump if he's
• 21:41
  Speaker 5: been convicted of a felony by a jury. So that
• 21:44
  Speaker 5: would be a very bad outcome for him. But we
• 21:46
  Speaker 5: also know is that a lot of voters don't really
• 21:48
  Speaker 5: know what happened or at least don't have good information
• 21:50
  Speaker 5: about what happened. Marquette Law School did a poll last
• 21:52
  Speaker 5: year where they found that half of Republicans surveyed didn't
• 21:56
  Speaker 5: believe that Trump took classified information from the White House
• 21:59
  Speaker 5: to his home at Mar-a-Lago.
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: Which he just, he did. It's a fact. Just objectively true.
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: Mountains of evidence. Not debatable. There's photos, there's pictures.
• 22:08
  Speaker 5: So, and then 18% of Republicans told The Economist in
• 22:12
  Speaker 5: a YouGov poll that they had heard a lot about.
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: The hush money case.
• 22:16
  Speaker 5: 39% said they'd heard nothing at all about it. So again,
• 22:19
  Speaker 5: there's just like a huge information deficit.
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And the Reuters poll that you cited originally, which
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: I think it was like 23% said that they wouldn't
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: vote for him if he's convicted. among those in that
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: poll who said they would vote for Trump if the
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: election was held today, so these are Trump voters in
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: that poll, 13% said they would not vote for him
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: if he was convicted of a felony by a jury
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: before the election. So those voters would actually, they're saying,
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: traditionally in polls, people are not great about predicting their
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: own future behavior. But 13% switching would be a big deal. Yeah.
• 22:50
  Speaker 4: I also just think having weeks and weeks of coverage
• 22:53
  Speaker 4: of this case is just a way of also talking
• 22:55
  Speaker 4: about all the cases. And one number that jumped out
• 22:57
  Speaker 4: at me from the Reuters poll is that roughly 36%
• 23:00
  Speaker 4: of Republicans say that it is risky for Trump to
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: become president or receive classified briefings because he has the
• 23:06
  Speaker 4: $ 500 million legal judgment against him. I thought it was
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: like a big and surprising number. And like, I feel
• 23:12
  Speaker 4: like more and more like, wait a second, hold on.
• 23:14
  Speaker 4: He's got, he owes people money all over town. He's
• 23:17
  Speaker 4: on trial. He's been convicted. Like, I do not trust
• 23:20
  Speaker 4: that those numbers will carry that all these Republicans will
• 23:22
  Speaker 4: abandon Trump. But I do think it tells people that like,
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: for all the talk that like Steve Bannon's out there
• 23:27
  Speaker 4: being like, this is why Trump is going to win.
• 23:29
  Speaker 4: Being on trial is good for him. People do not
• 23:32
  Speaker 4: like this. They don't like it. They don't like seeing
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: their president on trial. They don't think it's a good thing.
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: They don't buy any of that logic.
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And then the question is like, does it break through?
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: You go to poll today, 54% of Americans say they'll
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: follow the case somewhat or very closely, 40% not very
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: or not at all closely. Interestingly, only 38% said that
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: they think he'll be found guilty. And that number is
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: only 33% of independents. And so like 60 something percent
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: of Democrats think he's going to be found guilty and
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: like very, very low among Republicans. So it would be
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: a surprise. I do think like everything else in this election,
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: it's all on the margins, right? Like I think if
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: he is found guilty, we should expect probably fewer votes
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: to switch than we think. And if he is, if
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: there's a hung jury, And he's off. And some people, oh,
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: now he's going to win. I still think it'll be.
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: Total exoneration. I think it's going to be minimal in
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: each strength.
• 24:26
  Speaker 4: Can I also make a hopeful pitch?
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: Sure.
• 24:27
  Speaker 4: That goes even further than that. It has been consistent
• 24:29
  Speaker 4: in the polling that voters want the trial about his
• 24:33
  Speaker 4: election interference to take place before the election. They want
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: an answer. And I do think a little bit about this,
• 24:38
  Speaker 4: including people expecting him to be found not guilty is
• 24:40
  Speaker 4: a little bit of like we've been there's been so
• 24:43
  Speaker 4: much years, so many years of noise about how terrible
• 24:46
  Speaker 4: Trump is, the crimes, the chaos, the noise, the offensiveness,
• 24:49
  Speaker 4: all of it. And I do think there's a little
• 24:51
  Speaker 4: bit of people just want an answer. Like he was convicted.
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: We're done.
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: And like, I do think that that's the kind of
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: thing that could be powerful. I don't know, but that's
• 24:59
  Speaker 4: just my, that's just a little candle I light.
• 25:01
  Speaker 5: I think the biggest takeaway for people listening to this
• 25:03
  Speaker 5: show is just a reminder.
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: That we are the outliers.
• 25:06
  Speaker 5: The people who obsessively follow the news and are up
• 25:08
  Speaker 5: on this stuff all day, every day. We are the
• 25:10
  Speaker 5: outliers in this country. And a lot of people just
• 25:12
  Speaker 5: have no idea what happened. And maybe they'll figure it
• 25:15
  Speaker 5: out before the election.
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: Maybe they won't.
• 25:16
  Speaker 6: Right.
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: It's just a swirl, a swirl of noise that will
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: get louder over the next several months. But it's still
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: a lot of people are tuned out and more people
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: are tuned out, I think, than they were in 2020
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: and 2016. Not just because we keep rerunning the same race.
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: but because just the people are consuming less news they're
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: consuming it from different sources we're allowed to leave the
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: house we're allowed to leave the house that helps yeah.
• 25:36
  Speaker 4: And if you're hearing this in a jury room just
• 25:40
  Speaker 4: be fucking cool don't lie Be ethical.
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: Turn it down. Turn it down.
• 25:44
  Speaker 4: Just be fucking cool.
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: Download Ben Shapiro.
• 25:47
  Speaker 4: Be cool. Chill out. You've got this.
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: You listen to nothing. You like to hear.
• 25:54
  Speaker 4: From all sides. You like to hear a lot of
• 25:55
  Speaker 4: different kinds of opinions.
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: You've never heard of Substack. You're open.
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: Never heard of Slow Boring.
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: You don't know who Norm Eisen is.
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: You've never heard of Andrew Weissman. Wouldn't know him if
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: you saw him. Rachel who? Meadow?
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: Never.
• 26:10
  Speaker 4: Not familiar with the name.
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: The New York Times reports that President Biden and his
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: campaign have taken a, quote, virtual vow of silence about
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: the trial, but that his advisers say, quote, they hope
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: the trial will amplify their argument that the former president
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: is running chiefly to help himself, including to stay out
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: of prison. So do you think that message will reach
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: people based on the coverage of this trial? Or do
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: you think that Democrats, if not Biden himself, will need
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: to be out there talking about this trial? And I'm
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: just talking about Democrats like us. We're just lowly podcasters
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: talking about your Biden surrogates that are on TV.
• 26:55
  Speaker 5: I think anyone named Biden or who gets a paycheck
• 26:58
  Speaker 5: from someone named Biden cannot.
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: Talk about this case.
• 27:00
  Speaker 5: It's just the upside is not worth it. The downside
• 27:03
  Speaker 5: is huge. But I do think like Democrats writ large, senators,
• 27:06
  Speaker 5: members of Congress... we need to be talking about this.
• 27:09
  Speaker 5: There's the big picture substance. I don't think it's like
• 27:11
  Speaker 5: the lurid kind of sexual details.
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: I don't think people care about that.
• 27:14
  Speaker 5: I think it's what you were saying earlier, like the
• 27:16
  Speaker 5: fact that this guy who cares only about himself, he'll
• 27:18
  Speaker 5: do and say anything to get elected.
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: He'll break the law. He'll rip off donors. He'll stage
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: a coup.
• 27:24
  Speaker 5: There has to be a countervailing message to the Trump,
• 27:28
  Speaker 5: this is a Biden, you know, setup that's rigged against
• 27:31
  Speaker 5: me kind of message or else I do think that
• 27:33
  Speaker 5: will break through and it's.
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: What people will hear. I think the very good point
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: and that like, You can't just think that there will
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: be the coverage of the trial and that's what voters
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: will consume because they're also going to consume the Trump
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: and the Trump world spin on the trial and you
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: have to push back against that.
• 27:50
  Speaker 5: And most days of the trial itself will be boring, mundane,
• 27:54
  Speaker 5: procedural stuff happening.
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: That will be the straight news copy. I agree a
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: bit like that Biden obviously can't go out there and
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: be like, here's what happened in court today and neither
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: should the campaign. I do think they've got to find
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: a way to indirectly or obliquely mirror the message they
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: want to come out of that trial. So Biden talking
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: about like Donald Trump only cares about himself. He always
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: thinks he's the victim. He thinks the rule shouldn't apply
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: to him. He thinks he's above. Like I would start
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: weaving that in because I think it's going to be
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: very difficult to get coverage for like your random policy
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: announcement while the trial is going on, unless you sort
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: of indirectly.
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: I think you can do that. I think you can
• 28:34
  Speaker 4: also do it with like jokes. Like, I'm not paying
• 28:36
  Speaker 4: attention to all that. Because Joe Biden going up and.
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: Saying- I hear Sleepy Don knock knock.
• 28:41
  Speaker 4: I'm not paying attention to that trial, but it's a
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: mess there, huh? What's going on? It's a snooze.
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: Just ask Donald Trump. That's good. What if- Hey, that's good.
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: Get that to them. What if at the.
• 28:50
  Speaker 5: Debate, Biden walked over to his podium and put 20
• 28:53
  Speaker 5: bucks on it and was like, that's the hush.
• 28:56
  Speaker 6: Hey.
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: That's pretty good. I was thinking, what about a rule of... Yeah,
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: that was interesting. I said hush.
• 29:03
  Speaker 4: It's getting more thicker southern accent. Tommy's doing... Jesus.
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: Now you're Lindsey Graham or John Edwards.
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: It did have a gay look to it, too. People
• 29:15
  Speaker 4: in the South, there's some straight.
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: People down there. You keep talking about gag orders and
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: hung juries. What is happening? No gag on Tommy. Tommy
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: just said no one's going to be interested in the
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: sexual details. Yeah, I'm sure. Not this country. I'm talking
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: about of the justice system.
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: I think actually, I think Americans are deeply interested in
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: the prurient details of this. And that's what we should
• 29:36
  Speaker 4: be focusing on.
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: Were you going to say something about it?
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: I can't remember what the question was.
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: I derailed it. What were we talking about? Oh, what
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: Biden out there talking about.
• 29:45
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree with you. I think it's about, I
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: think other Democrats should be talking about the rule of law.
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: The other thing too is like, you know, the victory
• 29:53
  Speaker 4: of the time Sienna poll showing that Biden has, you know,
• 29:56
  Speaker 4: ticked up almost... almost to being caught up to Donald Trump.
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: It is such a sad statement of like, you know,
• 30:03
  Speaker 4: our society. But regardless, it's like, what's going on? And like,
• 30:06
  Speaker 4: there is this way Biden is paying, you know, the
• 30:10
  Speaker 4: polling shows that like basically people view the pandemic as
• 30:12
  Speaker 4: like force majeure. They don't hold Trump accountable for it.
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: They have gauzy, like a rosy memory of the economy.
• 30:18
  Speaker 4: They don't remember how terrible Trump really was. They hold
• 30:21
  Speaker 4: Biden accountable for a lot of it. But ironically, I
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: do think one of the things Joe Biden is being
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: held accountable for is is the fact that he promised
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: to bring the country together. And even though people in
• 30:29
  Speaker 4: that poll consistently say that they prefer Biden over Trump
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: in terms of unity and bringing the country together, I
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: do think Biden oddly pays a price for the fact
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: that he only fucking slowed Trump down. He laid him
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: down for a bit, but our politics are still consumed
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: by him. And there is a way in which right
• 30:45
  Speaker 4: now I would like to see people talking about the
• 30:47
  Speaker 4: fact that the only way we can move on past
• 30:49
  Speaker 4: this divisive and terrible era is by finally defeating Trump again.
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: and being done with him forever one last time. This
• 30:54
  Speaker 4: is the chance to have the country finally move on
• 30:57
  Speaker 4: from the chaos and noise of the Trump era. It's
• 30:59
  Speaker 4: one last chance to do that.
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: Until Biden wins and then Trump runs again. I can't.
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: I guess. I'll also say, I don't know if this
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: was intentional. I hope it was intentional, but I don't
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: know if it was. I do like that Biden is
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: specifically focusing on a tax message this week, and that
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: he's going to Scranton, and he's going to do the
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: Scranton Joe versus Park Ave Trump you know, and Biden's
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: in Scranton fighting for you and Trump's in Manhattan fighting
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: for himself. And it's a perfect place to talk about
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: how Donald Trump doesn't think the rules apply to him
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: and he wants to just help out his rich friends.
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: It's of a piece of what's happening in Manhattan right now.
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: And so I do like that that's going to be
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: Biden's message for the week. He's going to be talking
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: about the economy and specifically taxes in Scranton and elsewhere
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: in Pennsylvania. But as you mentioned, Lovett, in the new
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: polling with The Times, like we see the challenge that
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: Biden faces is made clear The good news from that
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: poll is that he's cut Trump's lead from 48 to
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: 43 in the last poll to 47, 46 in this one.
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: That is mostly driven by Biden, at least in this poll,
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: winning back support from black and Latino voters, probably older
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: black and Latino voters. But when the Times asked people
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: how they remember Trump's presidency, nearly half said he'd left
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: the country better off. That is nine points better. than
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: how voters felt about Trump right before the 2020 election.
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: At plurality, 42% also remember the years that Trump was
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: president as good years for America, versus 33% who remember
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: those years as bad for America. Only 25% said they
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: remember the last four years under Biden as good for America.
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: So one of the oldest cliches in politics is that
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: elections are about the future. But how much do you
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: think that the Biden campaign needs to do some work
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: reminding voters about the past? Tommy? I think that a
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: lot of work.
• 32:54
  Speaker 5: I mean, look, every president is viewed more favorably over
• 32:57
  Speaker 5: time for some reason.
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: I mean, even like George W.
• 32:59
  Speaker 5: Bush, he went out with what, like an 11% approval
• 33:01
  Speaker 5: rating after the Katrina and the surge.
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, he was in the dregs.
• 33:05
  Speaker 5: I was trying to find the numbers right now, but
• 33:07
  Speaker 5: Bush is now viewed more fondly than he was at
• 33:10
  Speaker 5: the time. So this is in some ways normal, but
• 33:12
  Speaker 5: I do think there's going to be a ton of
• 33:14
  Speaker 5: work required to remind people of all the things that
• 33:17
  Speaker 5: you hated about the Trump era. It is very weird
• 33:19
  Speaker 5: that Trump keeps tweeting things like, are you better off
• 33:22
  Speaker 5: than you were today four years ago? And that day
• 33:24
  Speaker 5: was like the worst day of the pandemic in record,
• 33:28
  Speaker 5: you know? So I think Trump's making it a little
• 33:30
  Speaker 5: easier and making him easier on Biden to make the case.
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: But, you know, it's frustrating. It does seem like the
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: election is going to turn on whether voters remember who
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: was president in 2020. which seems to be a problem.
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: That one year, just Trump was president from 2016 to 2019.
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: And then Biden took over during that pandemic and told
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: us all to inject bleach. And then inflation happened and
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: a million Americans died. That was it.
• 33:53
  Speaker 5: And Biden takes so much grief for the handling of
• 33:56
  Speaker 5: the pandemic and, you know, sort of by the anti-vaccine
• 33:59
  Speaker 5: people when Trump employed Fauci and Trump was responsible for
• 34:03
  Speaker 5: Operation Warp Speed. I mean, it's incredibly frustrating the way
• 34:05
  Speaker 5: people's memories are just broken on this topic.
• 34:08
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I really am amenable to the theory that this
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: is a country that was traumatized and never dealt with
• 34:13
  Speaker 4: the trauma of the pandemic. I just really do believe that.
• 34:16
  Speaker 4: Joe Biden said, Joe Biden was the adult. This was
• 34:19
  Speaker 4: a country, we were in the pandemic, we dealt with
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: four years of Trump's bullshit.
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: It was terrible.
• 34:23
  Speaker 4: And he said, I will get us out of this.
• 34:25
  Speaker 4: And he did. And yet there's all this sort of
• 34:27
  Speaker 4: hangover from it, including the fact that prices, yes, the
• 34:30
  Speaker 4: inflation is not as high, but prices went up and
• 34:32
  Speaker 4: stayed up. And that is a big thing he pays for.
• 34:35
  Speaker 4: How do you go back in time and get people
• 34:36
  Speaker 4: to remember the past more accurately? I think that's harder
• 34:39
  Speaker 4: than reminding people of what Trump did and what it
• 34:43
  Speaker 4: means about what he would do. I think that's how
• 34:44
  Speaker 4: you go from the past to the future. He put
• 34:46
  Speaker 4: the judgments in place that overturned Roe. He will continue
• 34:49
  Speaker 4: to come after abortion rights. He cut taxes for the rich.
• 34:52
  Speaker 4: That is his biggest accomplishment as president was cutting taxes
• 34:55
  Speaker 4: for the rich. He has already promised to do that again.
• 34:59
  Speaker 4: That is the kind of presidency he will have. And like,
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: I think that's the way I think you can start
• 35:03
  Speaker 4: telling a story about his term in a way that
• 35:06
  Speaker 4: does kind of let you pitch forward towards the future.
• 35:08
  Speaker 5: I found the numbers in 2018. There was a poll
• 35:10
  Speaker 5: where 61 percent of voters had a favorable view of
• 35:13
  Speaker 5: George Bush, which was double the 33 percent that he
• 35:17
  Speaker 5: ended with.
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah. So there's a recency bias. Right. That's just in
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: not just in politics and all things.
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: And in politics, also incumbents for the last couple of
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: decades have just taken a lot of shit. Right. You're
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: the incumbent. You're held responsible for everything. So you take
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: a lot of shit. I do think it is it
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: is tough. to spend a lot of the campaign relitigating
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: the past. I think that is not what voters love,
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: but clearly Biden has this challenge. I think you use
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: Trump's current behavior to remind people of the past, since
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: the good news is that guy doesn't change. So like
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: everything he did in the past that people were annoyed about,
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: you have to talk about it again. I do think
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: you want to move away from the Trump said something offensive,
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: isn't it awful kind of attack to Trump is going
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: to do this. And we know he's going to do
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: this because Remember, he did it when he was president
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: or wanted to do when he was president. So you
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: got to get away from sort of the, oh, no,
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: let's flip out. He said something offensive line of attack
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: to the here's what he's going to do.
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: President Biden is also dealing with an expanding conflict in
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: the Middle East. Over the weekend, Iran launched a drone
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: and missile attack against Israel in retaliation for a strike
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: on the Iranian embassy in Syria that killed several top
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: Iranian generals. It was the first time Iran directly attacked Israel,
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: though the U.S. helped Israel shoot down nearly all the
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: drones and missiles. One young girl was seriously wounded and
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: an airbase sustained minor damage. Iran said that's the end
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: of the attack. And Biden reportedly told Netanyahu to, quote,
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: take the win and said the U.S. won't support additional
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: attacks on Iran. But the Israelis are still saying they'll respond.
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: Republicans in Congress are pushing Biden to respond as well,
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: or at least support Israel in its response. And all
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: of this looks like it's going to come to a
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: head this week as Mike Johnson figures out what to
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: do about funding for Israel and Ukraine. Tommy, Iran was
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: widely expected to respond in some way, but what did
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: you make of how they did it?
• 37:08
  Speaker 5: Yeah, so as you noted, I mean, this was Iran's
• 37:10
  Speaker 5: response to Israel killing a bunch of top Iranian generals.
• 37:13
  Speaker 5: Imagine sort of the equivalent of if another country took
• 37:16
  Speaker 5: out the chairman of the Joint Chiefs or the CIA director,
• 37:18
  Speaker 5: and they did it in one of our diplomatic facilities,
• 37:21
  Speaker 5: which are considered foreign soil. So it took Iran about
• 37:24
  Speaker 5: two weeks to respond. They telegraphed what they were doing,
• 37:27
  Speaker 5: but I was blown away with how extensive response the
• 37:30
  Speaker 5: response was. So it was 100 ballistic missiles, 30 cruise missiles,
• 37:34
  Speaker 5: and 150 drones. So it's like a pretty serious arsenal
• 37:41
  Speaker 5: going at your country. Now, as you noted, 99% of
• 37:43
  Speaker 5: them were shot down in various ways. A lot of
• 37:46
  Speaker 5: those interdictions were made by Israeli missile defense systems like
• 37:49
  Speaker 5: the Iron Dome, David Sling, the Arrow 3 system, all
• 37:52
  Speaker 5: of which were funded by Barack Obama, by the way.
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: For all the people who say he was like.
• 37:56
  Speaker 5: A So David Sling, not a person? David Sling is
• 37:59
  Speaker 5: a missile defense.
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: I read that. I was like, who's David Sling?
• 38:03
  Speaker 5: I think it's a biblical allusion.
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: It's my friend. Yeah.
• 38:07
  Speaker 5: But again, you hear all these right wingers say Obama
• 38:10
  Speaker 5: sold out Israel. In fact, he funded missile defense systems
• 38:13
  Speaker 5: that literally saved lives. And then you had U.S. fighter
• 38:16
  Speaker 5: squadrons that shot down about 70 drones.
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: There were U.S.
• 38:19
  Speaker 5: Destroyers and missile defense systems in Iraq shooting down these
• 38:23
  Speaker 5: ballistic missiles. British fighters helped, too. Remarkably, the Jordanians and
• 38:27
  Speaker 5: the Saudis contributed to this coalition of taking out these
• 38:30
  Speaker 5: Iranian missiles. So it was a hell of a display
• 38:33
  Speaker 5: of like military might and technology and coordination. The one thing, though, that,
• 38:38
  Speaker 5: you know, before people get too triumphant is the Iranians
• 38:42
  Speaker 5: telegraphed what they were doing.
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: They literally briefed.
• 38:45
  Speaker 5: The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran briefed a bunch
• 38:47
  Speaker 5: of countries in the Gulf about their attack plan days
• 38:50
  Speaker 5: in advance. Those countries obviously told us. So everyone is
• 38:52
  Speaker 5: ready for this one. The next one will be different.
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: So it doesn't seem like it's in anyone's interest, particularly Israel's,
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: to respond with another attack that would escalate this war.
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: Why do you think they seem to be going ahead
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: with it anyway? Or do you think they're going to
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: do something like Iran did, which is to save face,
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: they have to do something or to send a signal
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: or what?
• 39:14
  Speaker 5: Well, so back in 2020, the U.S., Trump ordered the
• 39:17
  Speaker 5: assassination of the head of the IRGC at the time,
• 39:20
  Speaker 5: a guy named Qasem Soleimani. The Iranians responded. They shot
• 39:23
  Speaker 5: about a dozen ballistic missiles at U.S. bases in the region.
• 39:26
  Speaker 5: By sheer luck, no U.S. service members died, but 100
• 39:30
  Speaker 5: of them had traumatic brain injuries and were severely wounded.
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: When that happened- Which Trump said, no big deal, it's
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: just some headaches. Some headaches, yeah.
• 39:37
  Speaker 5: So at that moment, the Iranians sent a message to
• 39:40
  Speaker 5: the U.S. saying, all right, we're done. And to his credit, actually,
• 39:43
  Speaker 5: Trump decided not to further escalate. A very similar thing
• 39:47
  Speaker 5: is happening here. The Iranians did this response over the
• 39:49
  Speaker 5: weekend and then they said like, okay, we consider the
• 39:52
  Speaker 5: matter done. So Israel could pocket this or move on
• 39:54
  Speaker 5: or they could decide that Iran firing missiles at their
• 39:57
  Speaker 5: sovereign territory is intolerable and they have to do something
• 40:00
  Speaker 5: to retaliate.
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: To show that there's a cost.
• 40:03
  Speaker 5: The military term you hear all the time is deterrence.
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: We need to restore deterrence. There's also politics.
• 40:09
  Speaker 5: Netanyahu is trying to hold together a super right-wing coalition
• 40:13
  Speaker 5: where you have a bunch of crazy people, frankly. were
• 40:15
  Speaker 5: demanding a hawkish response. There was a report that a
• 40:20
  Speaker 5: bunch of senior Israeli leaders in the war cabinet wanted
• 40:23
  Speaker 5: to respond to the Iranians while the missiles were still
• 40:25
  Speaker 5: in the air before they landed or hit anything. So
• 40:28
  Speaker 5: time will tell. I mean, you know, these guys, the
• 40:30
  Speaker 5: Iran and Israel have been involved in like a low
• 40:33
  Speaker 5: grade proxy war for many, many years.
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: This is just the most open it's been. So we'll see.
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: It's Israel killed a bunch of their generals.
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: That was the TIT.
• 40:45
  Speaker 4: I believe this is the tat.
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: Seems like you've done, they've done the tit for tat.
• 40:48
  Speaker 4: It seems like, and look, I'm no foreign policy expert,
• 40:51
  Speaker 4: but that does seem like, it seems like they've, I
• 40:53
  Speaker 4: think they've completed a tit for tat. It seems like
• 40:55
  Speaker 4: everybody should chill the fuck out because of the completed
• 40:58
  Speaker 4: tit for tat.
• 40:59
  Speaker 5: My fear is that Bibi Netanyahu has wanted the U.S.
• 41:03
  Speaker 5: to fight a war on his behalf against Iran for
• 41:05
  Speaker 5: a very long time. We heard about this all the
• 41:07
  Speaker 5: time in 2009. Um, and so you can imagine a
• 41:11
  Speaker 5: scenario where he does something to escalate things and then
• 41:14
  Speaker 5: we get drawn in to make it worse. I mean,
• 41:15
  Speaker 5: Ronan Bergman is incredibly well-sourced Israeli journalist. He talked to
• 41:19
  Speaker 5: someone in the Israeli war cabinet meetings last weekend who said, quote,
• 41:22
  Speaker 5: if the internal discussions among authorities are broadcast on the media,
• 41:25
  Speaker 5: 4 million people would rush to Ben Gurion airport to
• 41:28
  Speaker 5: leave Israel. So basically it was so hawkish that it
• 41:30
  Speaker 5: would scare people out of the country, but hopefully like
• 41:33
  Speaker 5: cooler heads will prevail.
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: Do you think that's why Biden and the Biden administration
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: was so public about saying like, we will not, him
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: telling Netanyahu, we're not going to support you if you
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: escalate further? Yeah. Just because like he knew that he might,
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: that Netanyahu might want to draw us into a war
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: against them?
• 41:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 41:49
  Speaker 5: I mean, there were reports that the Israelis were about
• 41:51
  Speaker 5: to respond, but the Netanyahu was like, let me talk
• 41:53
  Speaker 5: to Biden first. And Biden's like, no, take the win.
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: Stop. And that stopped things. So Mike Johnson, Speaker of
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: the House, apparently, will either hold a vote on the
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: Senate bill that combines aid with Israel and Ukraine. And
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: if he does that, it could trigger a motion to
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: vacate from a large march. Or he could hold a
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: vote on an Israel-only aid package. The White House has
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: already said that they do not support that. There seems
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: to be a lot more pressure, especially from Republicans, to
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: support Israel in whatever it decides to do. But this
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: is also happening just as more Democrats have come out
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: in favor of conditioning aid to Israel over Gaza. And
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: it seems like even the Biden administration has softened their
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: position on that. So what do you think happens now?
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: And like and how does how does Biden handle it?
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: How should Biden handle it? Look, I don't.
• 42:49
  Speaker 4: Mike Johnson has been sending so many conflicting signals over
• 42:52
  Speaker 4: the last like even couple of days because he is.
• 42:54
  Speaker 4: been reassuring people behind the scenes that he is going
• 42:57
  Speaker 4: to do a Ukraine bill.
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he's telling donors he will.
• 43:00
  Speaker 4: But he's been dragging his feet now for weeks. Originally,
• 43:06
  Speaker 4: the idea is that you put them together so they
• 43:08
  Speaker 4: both go. Separating them seems to, at this point, please
• 43:12
  Speaker 4: no one and doesn't do anything to save his job.
• 43:15
  Speaker 4: So I don't totally understand. I don't even understand what
• 43:19
  Speaker 4: he's hoping to figure out because it It just seems
• 43:22
  Speaker 4: like if he does, if he means what he says,
• 43:24
  Speaker 4: which he has been persuaded that we have to do Ukraine,
• 43:26
  Speaker 4: and it does seem like that, remember that meeting where
• 43:28
  Speaker 4: basically Biden put it hard on him, how important it.
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: Was to do this.
• 43:31
  Speaker 4: It seems like there has been a legitimate, like he
• 43:35
  Speaker 4: legitimately understands the importance of actually doing this because he
• 43:38
  Speaker 4: thinks the country should support Ukraine. I don't know how
• 43:41
  Speaker 4: he gets out of this without ending up with some
• 43:43
  Speaker 4: kind of a motion to vacate. And if that is
• 43:44
  Speaker 4: where he's ultimately going to end up, it seems like
• 43:47
  Speaker 4: he would end up putting the combined bill together.
• 43:49
  Speaker 5: The interesting thing here, though, is I think Speaker Johnson
• 43:53
  Speaker 5: did his little pilgrimage down to Mar-a-Lago last week, and
• 43:57
  Speaker 5: they did a press event after he and Trump. And
• 44:00
  Speaker 5: Trump really seemed to knock down any suggestion that there
• 44:03
  Speaker 5: should be a motion to vacate or effort to oust him.
• 44:06
  Speaker 5: So that did seem like a pretty public rebuke to MTG.
• 44:10
  Speaker 5: I mean, I think broadly, though, I think what this
• 44:13
  Speaker 5: horrible incident over the weekend shows is that the war
• 44:15
  Speaker 5: in Gaza is growing and metastasizing and continues to be
• 44:19
  Speaker 5: destabilizing six months into it. Remember, like the Iranians, their
• 44:23
  Speaker 5: proxy groups killed two U.S. service members in Jordan. The
• 44:27
  Speaker 5: Houthi rebels are firing missiles into ships in the Red Sea,
• 44:30
  Speaker 5: like every day, basically. Hezbollah has tens of thousands of
• 44:34
  Speaker 5: missiles aimed at Israel, and they have not gotten fully
• 44:36
  Speaker 5: engaged in this war, and they could at any time,
• 44:38
  Speaker 5: and that would be devastating. So what this tells me is,
• 44:42
  Speaker 5: We are working with an Israeli government that is not
• 44:45
  Speaker 5: making smart strategic choices. They're making a lot of political choices.
• 44:49
  Speaker 5: And I think the priority from the Biden White House
• 44:51
  Speaker 5: needs to be getting a permanent ceasefire, securing the release
• 44:54
  Speaker 5: of hostages. In the interim, could you imagine a scenario
• 44:57
  Speaker 5: where you make sure the Israelis are fully stocked up
• 45:00
  Speaker 5: on missile defense interceptors and defensive weapons?
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: Absolutely.
• 45:04
  Speaker 5: But are we really going to write a big blank check?
• 45:06
  Speaker 5: for a bunch of 2000 pound bombs that are getting
• 45:09
  Speaker 5: dropped on, you know, civilians in Gaza. I don't think
• 45:11
  Speaker 5: that's a good idea. I think we need to deescalate.
• 45:14
  Speaker 5: No one wins a full scale war between Iran and Israel.
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: No one. If Israel aid passes Congress, can the Biden
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: administration still like condition that aid? Like, based on what
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: Israel does? Like if Congress obviously appropriates the money, but
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: then can the Biden administration still say like, well, we
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: have decided that this can go and this military can
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: go and this can't.
• 45:34
  Speaker 5: I think they have an enormous amount of flexibility in
• 45:36
  Speaker 5: terms of how they slow things down.
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: Got it. As we were talking, our friends at Punchbowl
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: and other Hill reporters are reporting out of the GOP
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: conference meeting. This is Mike Johnson's meeting with his caucus. Apparently,
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: first of all, MTG said that the Trump standing by
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: Johnson doesn't change her Her plan to oust him if
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: he screws her. Weird that logic didn't work with her.
• 45:59
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: But apparently, Jake Sherman says, House Republicans plan to try
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: to pass four bills this week to send aid to Israel, Ukraine,
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: and Taiwan, according to four sources familiar with the plan.
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: The fourth bill will include a ban on TikTok, a
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: bill to sell seized Russian assets, a lend-lease act for
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: military aid, convertible loans for humanitarian relief, and other provisions.
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: And the GOP leadership will try to move this plan
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: under one rule.
• 46:21
  Speaker 4: Okay.
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: Okay. That doesn't sound simpler. It does not sound simpler.
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: And then Hakeem Jeffries said, we're not going to come
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: to any conclusion on process until we understand the substance,
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: which seems right. We're recording this Monday afternoon, so you know.
• 46:35
  Speaker 4: Seems like that should always be the case.
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, one would hope, right.
• 46:40
  Speaker 6: So, yeah.
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: I mean, it does seem like the Senate bill is
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: the easiest path here, but it seems like he doesn't
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: know what he's doing. It seems like Mike Johnson doesn't
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: know how he gets out of this. He doesn't know
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: how to get out of it.
• 46:49
  Speaker 4: And he's looking for some new... There's always been this
• 46:52
  Speaker 4: search for some way to cut the Gordian Knot, and
• 46:54
  Speaker 4: it's just like, it isn't there. You're just going to
• 46:56
  Speaker 4: have to untie it and lose your job.
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you have one vote, pal. Apparently, he also said
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: in the meeting, Johnson said, Ukraine needs to stand on
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: its own. Oh, okay. What does that mean, though? They
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: were invaded. I know. People are getting killed daily.
• 47:10
  Speaker 4: It's like, oh, if we keep giving Ukraine aid, it'll
• 47:12
  Speaker 4: never learn the self-sufficiency and go out there and get
• 47:14
  Speaker 4: a job.
• 47:15
  Speaker 6: Right.
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: It's time for Ukraine to fly out of the nest.
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: Ridiculous. Unbelievable. All right. Before we go to break, a
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: few quick housekeeping notes. Buy our book, Democracy or Else,
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: if that sounds threatening good. It was supposed to. We
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: only have a few months left to try and stop
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: the country from getting Donald Trump as president again. So
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: we're done with subtlety. When were we not done with subtlety?
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: We're not in the nuance business, are we? No, I
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: didn't think so. Anyway, pick up brand new Democracy Royale's
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: merch inspired by our book that you haven't even seen yet.
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: But the merch is inspired by it. At the Crooked store,
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: wear it to remind you and everyone around you that
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: this really is a make or break election. We were
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: just kidding the other times. There is a range of teas, mugs, stickers,
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  Speaker 2: and totes. And as always, a portion of proceeds from
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: every order will support Vote Save America, its partners, and
• 48:02
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• 48:08
  Speaker 2: and as we said, we're facing another election with unprecedented stakes.
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: If you're not sure how to make an impact, Vote
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: Save America's Anxiety Relief Program will route your recurring donations
• 48:17
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• 48:47
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• 48:51
  Speaker 2: authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee. When we come back,
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: Tommy talks to Strict Scrutiny's Melissa Murray.
• 49:11
  Speaker 5: Joining me now is the co-host of the best legal
• 49:14
  Speaker 5: podcast in the world, some might say the universe, Strict Scrutiny,
• 49:18
  Speaker 5: and the co-author of the book, The Truth. Indictments, The
• 49:21
  Speaker 5: Historic Charging Documents with Commentary. Melissa Murray, great to see you.
• 49:25
  Speaker 7: Thanks for having me. It's great to be here.
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: It's always very fun to talk with you. So wild
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: day today, big legal news. We're talking on Monday.
• 49:32
  Speaker 5: Donald Trump just spent the day in a courtroom in
• 49:34
  Speaker 5: New York. Can you just remind us of the basics here?
• 49:37
  Speaker 5: What's he on trial for doing? And what are the
• 49:39
  Speaker 5: legal risks associated with Donnie sitting in the courtroom all day?
• 49:44
  Speaker 7: So, again, where to start, Tommy? The reason why I
• 49:48
  Speaker 7: actually have to give you this information is because there
• 49:51
  Speaker 7: are actually four different indictments against Donald Trump. So it
• 49:55
  Speaker 7: could get confusing. This one is a state-level indictment brought
• 49:59
  Speaker 7: by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg. And the theory of
• 50:04
  Speaker 7: the case is that Donald Trump, before he became president—
• 50:09
  Speaker 7: orchestrated what is essentially a conspiracy to falsify business records
• 50:15
  Speaker 7: so that those business records could be used to hide
• 50:19
  Speaker 7: hush money payments made to adult film star. Stormy Daniels
• 50:23
  Speaker 7: in order to prevent the public from learning about Donald
• 50:26
  Speaker 7: Trump's alleged affair with Stormy Daniels on the eve of
• 50:30
  Speaker 7: the 2016 election. So there are, I think, 34 different
• 50:35
  Speaker 7: charges of falsifying business records, which ordinarily in New York
• 50:39
  Speaker 7: state is a misdemeanor offense. But when it is done
• 50:43
  Speaker 7: in furtherance of some other crime, Here, the idea is
• 50:46
  Speaker 7: that it is in furtherance of state and federal and
• 50:50
  Speaker 7: maybe state-level tax violations. All of that leads to a
• 50:54
  Speaker 7: felony charge. So this is being charged as a set
• 50:56
  Speaker 7: of 34 different felonies, all related to the falsification of
• 51:00
  Speaker 7: business records.
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: Oof, a lot of felonies.
• 51:03
  Speaker 5: So the conventional wisdom you often hear about this case
• 51:06
  Speaker 5: is that it's the weakest of the four cases that
• 51:09
  Speaker 5: you just mentioned, though that doesn't mean it is a
• 51:11
  Speaker 5: weak case on its own. I've heard you and your
• 51:13
  Speaker 5: co-host push back hard on that notion, what do you
• 51:17
  Speaker 5: think is the more accurate way to think about this
• 51:19
  Speaker 5: specific case?
• 51:20
  Speaker 7: So I don't think it's fair to call this a
• 51:21
  Speaker 7: weak case. I think that maybe to think about it
• 51:24
  Speaker 7: in terms of the consequentialness of the other cases, yes,
• 51:29
  Speaker 7: this may be less consequential in that it does not
• 51:32
  Speaker 7: involve an effort to overthrow the results of a validly
• 51:36
  Speaker 7: conducted election, nor does it involve an effort to allegedly
• 51:41
  Speaker 7: sequester scads of classified intelligence documents in your own personal
• 51:48
  Speaker 7: beach house on the Florida coast. So yes, it's really
• 51:52
  Speaker 7: a question of degree. Like when compared to those things,
• 51:55
  Speaker 7: the impeding the peaceful transition of power, attempting to create
• 51:59
  Speaker 7: a coup, attempting to keep these documents for yourself because
• 52:02
  Speaker 7: they're your personal property, Yeah, this sounds like small potatoes,
• 52:06
  Speaker 7: but I think if we were to think about this
• 52:08
  Speaker 7: on its own, it actually does feel quite weighty. And
• 52:11
  Speaker 7: if we think about it in tandem with those other
• 52:14
  Speaker 7: three indictments, I think what it leads to is the
• 52:17
  Speaker 7: sense that there's kind of a pattern, a practice of
• 52:21
  Speaker 7: engaging in subterfuge, engaging, if these allegations are proven beyond
• 52:27
  Speaker 7: a reasonable doubt, engaging in kind of fraudulent behavior in
• 52:30
  Speaker 7: order to get what you want. And so I think
• 52:33
  Speaker 7: one way that I might think of this case is
• 52:35
  Speaker 7: kind of an amuse-bouche of election interference. It's not the
• 52:39
  Speaker 7: kind of coup-adjacent behavior that we saw on January 6th,
• 52:44
  Speaker 7: or what is alleged to have been coup-adjacent behavior on
• 52:46
  Speaker 7: January 6th, but it is the effort to sequester information
• 52:51
  Speaker 7: that could, at the margins, have changed the mind of
• 52:56
  Speaker 7: the average voter who was kind of on the fence,
• 52:58
  Speaker 7: not sure what to think about Donald Trump. I think
• 53:00
  Speaker 7: that is especially the case in light of the Access
• 53:03
  Speaker 7: Hollywood tape that came out as a true October surprise
• 53:06
  Speaker 7: in October of 2016. If you were someone on the
• 53:09
  Speaker 7: fence and that Access Hollywood tape gave you pause, learning
• 53:14
  Speaker 7: about the fact that Donald Trump had also allegedly had
• 53:18
  Speaker 7: these extramarital affairs with these other women and had paid
• 53:22
  Speaker 7: off the National Enquirer to catch and kill these stories
• 53:25
  Speaker 7: that might have changed your mind about whether or not
• 53:28
  Speaker 7: he was the right person to occupy the Oval Office.
• 53:32
  Speaker 7: And so I think if you think about this case
• 53:34
  Speaker 7: in that lens, then it's a really important case. It
• 53:38
  Speaker 7: kind of goes to who is this person who occupied
• 53:41
  Speaker 7: the office of the president, who was allegedly falsifying business
• 53:46
  Speaker 7: records from the Oval Office, signing these checks from the
• 53:49
  Speaker 7: Oval Office, and who now seeks to be president once again.
• 53:53
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 53:53
  Speaker 5: And look, we know that Donald Trump thought his stories
• 53:56
  Speaker 5: were potentially electorally damaging because he paid 130 grand to
• 53:59
  Speaker 5: suppress them. And also he complains constantly about social media
• 54:03
  Speaker 5: sites suppressing the Hunter Biden laptop story because that also
• 54:07
  Speaker 5: came out right before the election. So clearly there's a
• 54:09
  Speaker 5: precedent here. Earlier today, so in the courtroom, the DA
• 54:13
  Speaker 5: asked the judge in the case to order Trump to
• 54:15
  Speaker 5: remove some social media posts where he was attacking witnesses
• 54:18
  Speaker 5: and to fine him for those posts. If Trump keeps
• 54:22
  Speaker 5: violating gag order like that by talking shit about witnesses
• 54:26
  Speaker 5: or maybe even the judge's family if the gag order
• 54:29
  Speaker 5: gets expanded? What are the odds that he gets some
• 54:32
  Speaker 5: sort of penalty, maybe a stiffer one, maybe jail time?
• 54:35
  Speaker 7: So I think most of the judges who have had
• 54:39
  Speaker 7: to deal with Donald Trump thus far, and most of
• 54:41
  Speaker 7: them have been in the context of those civil lawsuits,
• 54:44
  Speaker 7: have really been loathe to throw the real hammer at him,
• 54:48
  Speaker 7: which is contempt of court, which is holding him criminally
• 54:51
  Speaker 7: and contempt for his behavior with regard to these different witnesses.
• 54:54
  Speaker 7: You know, Judge Kaplan certainly talked about this, but no
• 54:58
  Speaker 7: one has ever really gone up there. Like the most
• 55:00
  Speaker 7: we've seen from Judge Engeron are significant fines. And I
• 55:03
  Speaker 7: think part of that is because the narrative that Donald
• 55:07
  Speaker 7: Trump is parroting is that he is the victim of persecution.
• 55:10
  Speaker 7: These are selective prosecutions aimed at discrediting him, and everyone
• 55:15
  Speaker 7: is in cahoots with Joe Biden to do this. And
• 55:18
  Speaker 7: the judges are in cahoots, the prosecutors are in cahoots, everyone.
• 55:21
  Speaker 7: And so I think most of the judges don't want
• 55:23
  Speaker 7: to make a martyr of Donald Trump by really throwing
• 55:26
  Speaker 7: the book at him. So I think they give him
• 55:28
  Speaker 7: a really long leash, certainly a longer leash than any
• 55:32
  Speaker 7: other defendant would likely get under similar circumstances. I mean,
• 55:37
  Speaker 7: I can't imagine another criminal case where the defendant was
• 55:42
  Speaker 7: publicly and on social media attacking the judge's family, attacking prosecutors,
• 55:48
  Speaker 7: attacking potential jurors. I mean, essentially creating a climate of
• 55:51
  Speaker 7: fear for anyone who might be impaneled as a juror,
• 55:55
  Speaker 7: that they're going to be doxxed, that their information is
• 55:57
  Speaker 7: going to be given over to these hordes of individuals
• 56:01
  Speaker 7: who believe and follow Donald Trump. I mean, it's incredibly intimidating.
• 56:06
  Speaker 7: I don't know any defendant who would have been allowed
• 56:08
  Speaker 7: to get away with this to the extent that Donald
• 56:10
  Speaker 7: Trump has. So, you know, to the extent Donald Trump
• 56:12
  Speaker 7: likes to talk about how poorly he is being treated
• 56:15
  Speaker 7: and how he's selectively being targeted, he's actually getting some
• 56:19
  Speaker 7: of the doest of due process. I mean, like that's
• 56:23
  Speaker 7: Kate Shaw's own phrase, and I think it's right. He's
• 56:26
  Speaker 7: getting away with quite a lot because I think most
• 56:28
  Speaker 7: judges are really loathe to make a martyr of him.
• 56:32
  Speaker 5: Yeah, never mind the fact that he actually gave some
• 56:34
  Speaker 5: of the judges who could rule on his case their jobs.
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: You know, that feels.
• 56:37
  Speaker 7: Like a point in your direction. The Eileen Cannon situation
• 56:42
  Speaker 7: is really a novel one. And we can sort of
• 56:44
  Speaker 7: talk about the politics of that as well.
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: I want to ask you about that at the end.
• 56:47
  Speaker 5: Trump also reportedly took a little tiger snooze today in court.
• 56:51
  Speaker 5: How long of a nap do you have to take
• 56:53
  Speaker 5: before it goes from misdemeanor to a felony nap?
• 56:57
  Speaker 7: You know, listen, this is he's an older gentleman. And like,
• 57:00
  Speaker 7: I don't you know, we all need a cat nap
• 57:03
  Speaker 7: now and again. Court proceedings, at least in this sense,
• 57:07
  Speaker 7: I mean, people think about law and order and like
• 57:09
  Speaker 7: fiery orations at the jury box. But for the most part,
• 57:13
  Speaker 7: it's a lot of anodyne stuff like back and forth
• 57:15
  Speaker 7: between the lawyers and the judge. It can get boring.
• 57:18
  Speaker 7: I'm not going to fault him for falling asleep. Not
• 57:21
  Speaker 7: sure it ever gets to a felony, but to the
• 57:23
  Speaker 7: extent he's sort of tagged himself as the more vigorous
• 57:26
  Speaker 7: candidate here, it did seem like he was on a
• 57:30
  Speaker 7: couple of unisoms during today's proceedings. I don't know.
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: We'll find out. Yeah, you're right. He's an old man.
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: We should not begrudge him taking a little nap.
• 57:39
  Speaker 7: I mean, who among us hasn't like drifted off in
• 57:42
  Speaker 7: a really boring? So I'm not going to fault him
• 57:44
  Speaker 7: for that. But yeah, like, you know, maybe there's some
• 57:46
  Speaker 7: melatonin going on.
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 57:49
  Speaker 5: The New York Times reported that the jury selection process
• 57:52
  Speaker 5: could take about eight weeks and then it's going to
• 57:54
  Speaker 5: keep Trump in town for like four days a week
• 57:56
  Speaker 5: during that period. Can you walk us through the jury
• 57:59
  Speaker 5: selection process?
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: What is that like? What should we expect?
• 58:02
  Speaker 3: So.
• 58:03
  Speaker 7: Jury selection, I mean, especially for a case like this
• 58:06
  Speaker 7: that is so high profile where I think most jurors,
• 58:09
  Speaker 7: prospective jurors coming in off the streets have some idea
• 58:12
  Speaker 7: about what's going on. That's going to make this a
• 58:14
  Speaker 7: little more difficult than your average criminal case where the
• 58:18
  Speaker 7: circumstances are likely unknown to the prospective jurors. Everybody knows
• 58:22
  Speaker 7: about this. And in order for Donald Trump to get
• 58:25
  Speaker 7: a fair trial, everyone has to be satisfied that the
• 58:28
  Speaker 7: jurors that have been impaneled, whether as actual jurors or
• 58:31
  Speaker 7: as alternates, are the kinds of individuals who are willing
• 58:34
  Speaker 7: to take all of the evidence with an open mind.
• 58:37
  Speaker 7: They don't have preconceived views. And that's hard because Donald
• 58:41
  Speaker 7: Trump is a polarizing figure. You really have to be
• 58:45
  Speaker 7: careful that you don't have individuals who are stealth jurors
• 58:49
  Speaker 7: who want to be on the jury because they want
• 58:50
  Speaker 7: to stick it to Donald Trump or self jurors who
• 58:52
  Speaker 7: want to be on the jury because they believe Donald
• 58:55
  Speaker 7: Trump is being unfairly treated and they're there to be
• 58:57
  Speaker 7: a kind of poison pill. There's going to be a
• 59:00
  Speaker 7: lot of discussion on the questionnaire form for the jurors,
• 59:03
  Speaker 7: which the judge has worked on with the prosecution and
• 59:06
  Speaker 7: the defense to sort of identify the kinds of questions
• 59:09
  Speaker 7: they're going to ask these prospective jurors to determine whether
• 59:11
  Speaker 7: they can truly be impartial. It's going to take a
• 59:14
  Speaker 7: lot of time to go through that. They've already called
• 59:17
  Speaker 7: around 96 prospective jurors and dismissed about half of them
• 59:20
  Speaker 7: because people are just like, listen, I hate the guy
• 59:22
  Speaker 7: or listen, I love the guy or just like, I
• 59:24
  Speaker 7: know too much and I don't, you know, like, and
• 59:25
  Speaker 7: then there are those jurors who have legitimate reasons that
• 59:29
  Speaker 7: they cannot be on a jury. They have childcare or,
• 59:32
  Speaker 7: you know, they're going to be out of the country
• 59:34
  Speaker 7: for something where it's a true hardship. So, you know,
• 59:36
  Speaker 7: there are all of those kinds of anodyne things that
• 59:38
  Speaker 7: get people taken out of the pool for jury selection.
• 59:44
  Speaker 7: Both the prosecution and the defense have opportunities to make
• 59:47
  Speaker 7: selections and to throw jurors out, prospective jurors out. So
• 59:52
  Speaker 7: there are a number of peremptory challenges that each side has.
• 59:56
  Speaker 7: And these are situations where you can remove a juror
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 7: from the pool for whatever reason, so long as the
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 7: reason does not have to do with a protected category
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 7: like race or gender or religion. But I don't like
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 7: the look of that person. Peremptory challenge. You can get
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 7: those gone. And then there are challenges for cause. And
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 7: like this person clearly dislikes Donald Trump. This person worked
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 7: in the Biden administration, something like that. Those can be
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 7: reasons to get rid of people. So this is kind
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 7: of painstaking, laborious work, trying to sort of get at
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 7: each person and sort of suss out where they're coming from,
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 7: asking them these questions, following up with them, and trying
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 7: to put together your panel. And again, you have two
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 7: different sides trying to assemble a group of 12 and
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 7: then a couple of alternates That meets their needs, but
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 7: they all have to kind of agree that this is
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 7: the panel. So, I mean, that's really difficult work. And
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 7: I think it's going to take some time, especially in
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 7: a case as well known as this one.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 5: And so the judge disallowed direct questions about party registration
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 5: or who you support politically. But you can ask about
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 5: news sources you consume and social media, etc.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: That's true.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 5: But could I, as a Trump lawyer... Look, we all
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 5: live online. If you register to be a Democrat in
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 5: the state of New York, that's public somewhere.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: That's gettable information. If you post on social media, it's gettable.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 7: And they will have jury consultants doing all kinds of
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 7: work like this.
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: Research.
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 7: Yeah. I think there was a John Grisham novel about
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 7: this with jury consultants. I mean, it's a huge cottage
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 7: industry where they're doing online research trying to figure out
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 7: what aren't you telling us? What don't we know about you?
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 7: What can we find out? On and on and on.
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 7: And so This happens all the time. So yes, you
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 7: may not be required to divulge your party affiliation, but
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 7: they can be online figuring out, okay, you've donated in
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 7: the last four election cycles to Hillary Clinton and Chuck
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 7: Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand. I guess you're a Democrat and
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 7: maybe I don't want you on the story.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: Give you the boot.
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 5: OJ Simpson died last week, RIP to the juice. It
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 5: reminded every one millennial and older, really, what it was
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 5: like when an entire nation obsessed over one trial. The
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 5: OJ trial was different in that they allowed cameras in
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 5: the courtrooms. We were watching this literally all day, every day.
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 5: And it was obviously lurid in many different and awful ways.
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 5: But do you have a prediction about whether this case
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 5: could sort of meet that level of attention compared to OJ?
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 7: I mean, the overlay of race with OJ was just
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 7: so evident when that case was being litigated. And again,
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 7: Los Angeles had erupted in flames just a few years
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 7: earlier because of the Rodney King beating that was, again, televised.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 7: And I think people made a lot of connections between
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 7: the fact of those officers and the Rodney King trial
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 7: getting off and then OJ Simpson being charged with murder.
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 7: So the racial tensions... of that case and the sort
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 7: of surrounding political milieu where I think we're very, very thick.
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 7: I don't know if that is really the situation here.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 7: I mean, there's a lot to this case, and I
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 7: know Donald Trump has tried to paint himself as sort
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 7: of akin to the average black defendant, but he really isn't.
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 7: He's getting a lot of benefits that most defendants are
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 7: not getting in the criminal justice system. That's not quite
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 7: the same thing. I also think the judges are really different.
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 7: Judge Lance Ito, who was the presiding judge in the O.J.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 7: Simpson trial, I think most people would say his case
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 7: management style, his courtroom management style was not quite as
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 7: stringent as Judge Merchan's. And I think that's really important.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 7: A lot of things can get out of hand when
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 7: you don't have a judge who's in control of the courtroom.
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 7: It seems that Judge Marchand is, this is his courtroom
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 7: and we're doing things his way. And there's not going
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 7: to be a lot of judging from the prosecution or
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 7: the defense in lieu of the judge taking control of
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 7: the courtroom.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 5: Yeah, we've got a racist on trial, not race on trial.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 5: Do you see all these Gen Z kids doubting whether
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 5: we millennials actually watched the verdict be delivered at school?
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: I know I did. Gen Z.
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 7: I mean, so is it fair– can I confess that
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 7: I'm not in your bracket? I'm not a millennial.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 5: You're just– well, you're just just outside of it.
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 7: That's very flattering, Tommy. I think I'm well outside of it.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 7: I mean, I was in college when the O.J. Simpson
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 7: trial was happening. And I remember we were let out
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 7: of class at the University of Virginia, not necessarily the most,
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 7: at the time, the most enlightened place about race, but
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 7: we did get out of class to hear that verdict.
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 7: And I mean, it really was electrifying. People crying, people jubilant, and,
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 7: you know, Surprising in many respects. The one thing I
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 7: do remember about that moment was that was really the
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 7: moment where Jeffrey Toobin kind of ascended into the cultural consciousness.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 7: Like he was the one reporting on that case from
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 7: Los Angeles. He later wrote what I think is one
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 7: of the best legal books ever. ever, like irrespective of
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 7: what you might think about Jeffrey Toobin, but the run
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 7: of his life is one of the best legal books
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 7: I have ever read with the exception of the Trump indictments,
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 7: the historic charging documents and commentary by Melissa Murray and
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 7: Andrew Weissman.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: That's exactly right. Look, there was a monoculture kids and
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: we did all watch it.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 5: And I'm sick of you questioning us on Twitter.
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 7: We didn't have TikTok. We didn't have Instagram. We could not,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 7: there were no alternate sources of entertainment.
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: This was it. Shit was wild. Last question for you.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 7: Wait, wait, one more thing. Do you remember where you
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 7: were with the Bronco chase? Like that to me is
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 7: the most salient. And the people thereafter, like how did
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 7: you know if someone was a good friend? Would you
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 7: drive the Bronco for me? Would you be like AC?
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 7: Like that's how you knew if someone was a true friend.
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: I mean, like 100 million people watched it.
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 7: I mean, it was outrageous.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: It was like a Super Bowl, truly. Final question for you.
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 5: So you mentioned this, alluded to it earlier at the top.
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 5: The most obviously open and shut case, to me at least,
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 5: seems to be the Mar-a-Lago classified documents case, given the law,
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 5: given the evidence we've seen with our own eyes, given
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 5: the clear obstruction. But Judge Aileen Cannon seems to be
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 5: just a disaster in terms of both of making decisions
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 5: in a timely manner and also maybe understanding relevant law.
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 5: I mean, can you just give listeners a quick sense
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 5: of how strangely that case is proceeding?
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 7: I think you've characterized it exactly right. This is the
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 7: open and shut case. All that is required for a
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 7: conviction is that you have the documents, you know you're
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 7: not supposed to have them, and they're still in your possession.
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 7: And there are people in federal penitentiary for having far
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 7: less than what Donald Trump is alleged to have had
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 7: at Mar-a-Lago, leaving aside the question of the obstruction charges
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 7: and the moving the stuff around and allegedly trying to
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 7: destroy videotape that shows them moving the stuff around. This
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 7: is a pretty open and shut case, which is why
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 7: it's so surprising that it's moving so slowly and it
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 7: seems to be getting just gummed up all the time. And,
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 7: you know, I think it's fair to say part of
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 7: that is Judge Eileen Cannon. She is a Trump appointee.
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 7: She was appointed during Trump's administration. She doesn't have a
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 7: lot of criminal trial experience. Most of the cases that
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 7: she's had as a lawyer and as a judge have
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 7: been civil matters. She's had a couple. of criminal cases,
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 7: but they've been pretty anodyne fair, like felon in possession
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 7: of a gun, maybe deportation cases, things of that nature.
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 7: This is not necessarily a difficult case, but it does
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 7: involve some complicated questions regarding the nature of the evidence,
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 7: because much of the evidence is going to be classified information.
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 7: So you have to deal with an entirely different statute,
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 7: the Classified Information Procedures Act to deal with that. She
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 7: doesn't have that experience.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 7: I mean, I think you could ask real questions about
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 7: what the extent of her working knowledge is, how it
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 7: reflects here. I mean, we've already seen that she has
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 7: been rebuked by the 11th Circuit, which is the Intermediate
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 7: Court of Appeals. That's above her, right below the Supreme Court,
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 7: for failing to get the law right on the question
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 7: of the special master even before this came to her
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 7: as a trial. So, you know, real questions here. I
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 7: will just note the political valence of this. The reason why...
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 7: Eileen Cannon is the judge in that case is because
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 7: there are two major vacancies on the Southern District of Florida.
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 7: And Joe Biden hasn't been able to fill them because
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 7: the two state senators in Florida are Marco Rubio and
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 7: Rick Scott. They're Republicans. And in order to nominate and
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 7: confirm a judge to those district court seats, the home
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 7: state senators have to give their blue slips. Again, another
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 7: one of these archaic Senate procedures that just gum up
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 7: the works. And they have never given their blue slips
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 7: to a nominee to the district court out of Florida.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 7: And so there are two vacancies here, which means that
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 7: when this case went in the wheel to be assigned
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 7: to a judge in the Southern District of Florida, there
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 7: is a one in three chance they would get Judge Cannon.
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 7: So those are pretty good odds if you're Donald Trump.
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 2: We got to get rid of this stupid blue slip process.
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: It's ridiculous.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 5: It's also just unbelievable to me that there is an
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 5: actual conversation happening about whether Judge Marchand is a fair
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 5: and impartial judge in this case because of something his
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 5: daughter does when Donald Trump literally gave Aileen Cannon her
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 5: job in Florida.
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: What are we doing here?
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 7: So again, I think there have been circumstances. Presidents nominate
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 7: federal judges. I think you know, it is perhaps extraordinary,
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 7: unprecedented for a president to then wind up in the
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 7: courtroom of a judge that he nominated. But, you know,
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 7: things happen. Like Bill Clinton was the subject of a
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 7: civil lawsuit before a judge who, again, like these things
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 7: happen all of the time. I think what's really interesting
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 7: here is that she's had so many opportunities to get
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 7: this case on the right track and to do this
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 7: by the book. And, you know, it seems like she's
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 7: making a lot of decisions that A, don't make sense
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 7: or seem only to make sense in the context of
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 7: keeping things in the way Donald Trump might want them
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 7: as a criminal defendant.
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and maybe dragging this thing out for as long
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: as possible.
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 7: Well, I mean, which is what Donald Trump as a
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 7: criminal defendant is exactly what he wants.
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: Frustrating.
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 5: Well, listen, if you want to understand more about all
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 5: of these cases, you should absolutely read the Trump indictments,
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 5: the historic charging documents with commentary by Melissa Murray. Also,
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 5: if you want to know all about the Supreme Court,
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 5: what it's up to in the legal culture surrounding it. Like,
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 5: where the hell is Clarence Thomas today?
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: Nobody knows.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 5: Listen to Strict Scrutiny. Truly one of my favorite shows.
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 5: Just so smart and so fun and funny at the
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 5: same time. So thank you for joining.
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 7: Thanks for having me.
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: All right. Thanks to Melissa Murray. And before we go. Look,
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: we said earlier, Trump's going to be counter-programming this trial
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: with all kinds of rallies and events on Wednesdays and
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: on the weekends when he's off. And we just wanted
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: to play one example of the kind of soaring rhetoric
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: and powerful messaging that's going to come from Donald Trump
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 2: in some of these events.
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 5: This was from over the weekend. If he can stick
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 5: to this message, we're screwed.
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah, let's hear it.
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 3: Union was saved by the immortal heroes at Gettysburg. Gettysburg,
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 3: what an unbelievable.
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 2: Battle.
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 3: That was the Battle of Gettysburg. What an unbelievable. I mean,
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 3: it was so much and so interesting and so vicious
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 3: and horrible and so beautiful in so many different ways.
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 3: It represented such a big portion of the success of
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 3: this country. Gettysburg.
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 6: Wow.
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 3: I go to Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, to look and to watch.
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 3: And the statement of Robert E. Lee, who's no longer
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 3: in favor. Did you ever notice that? No longer in favor.
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 3: Never fight uphill, me boys. Never fight uphill. They were
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 3: fighting uphill. He said, wow, that was a big mistake.
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 3: He lost his great general. And they were fighting. Never
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 3: fight uphill, me boys. But it was too late.
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: How fucking high was he? Pickett's Charge.
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 4: You wouldn't catch me charging, boys. It's also, by the way,
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 4: just sort of.
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: Gettysburg, wow. Gettysburg, wow.
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 4: Here's the thing. You don't do.
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 4: The Gettysburg Address is too good for you to riff
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 4: your own version. He's out there being like, Gettysburg, so vicious.
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: So beautiful. Four years and score. Four score and seven
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: truths ago. Let this be dedicated to.
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 4: It shall not perish so beautifully.
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: Whatever happened to Robert E.
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 3: Lee?
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: He's a great guy. Why does everyone don't like him anymore?
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: Must have been those Manhattan judges.
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 4: Robert E. Lee, no longer certified fresh. What happened there?
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: I thought people liked Robert E.
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 3: Lee.
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 4: Not anymore.
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 2: Not anymore.
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 4: Rotten, rotten tomatoes.
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 2: Just a horrible, horrible, disgusting. We're all so beautiful. Beautiful.
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: His wife, Sarah Lee. Great chef. It was so much.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: It was so much. So beautiful.
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 4: So vicious.
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 2: But it was so much.
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 4: Hey, Donald Trump. You can become president. You just got
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 4: to tell us everything you know about the Gettysburg Address
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 4: and the battle that took place there. Just walk us
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 4: through every detail that you got.
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: I think the Biden folks should put that in an ad.
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 2: Just have that riff. It would be very funny. Those
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: are the kind of ads. They're like, you don't test them.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: They're off the wall. I don't know if they're going
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: to move voters, but I don't know. You have a
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 2: bunch of people seeing that. They're like, what? I don't
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: want this guy being president. What did he take? That's
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: fucking weird. Anyway, that's what we got for today.
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 4: The world will little note.
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: Nor long remember. What we say here.
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 2: Bye, everyone. We'll have another episode for you on Wednesday.
• 1:13:14
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• 1:13:16
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• 1:13:20
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• 1:13:23
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• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: Our show is produced by Olivia Martinez and David Toledo.
• 1:13:39
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• 1:13:42
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• 1:13:46
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• 1:13:49
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• 1:13:52
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• 1:13:56
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• 1:13:59
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• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: Thanks to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Haley Jones, Mia Kelman,
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