Latest / International Flavor: Where the Truth Tastes Better / Iran War Shockwaves, Kharg Island Oil Crisis, Russia Pushback, China Energy Stakes, and the Fragile Global Economy

Transcript

Iran War Shockwaves, Kharg Island Oil Crisis, Russia Pushback, China Energy Stakes, and the Fragile Global Economy · International Flavor: Where the Truth Tastes Better

• 0:03
  Hello, good morning, welcome.
• 0:06
  I am Samuel Trapp.
• 0:09
  This is International Flavor and you are on
• 0:14
  DAM Radio.
• 0:16
  damradio.com forward slash live and internationalflavor.com
• 0:23
  is where the shows are later stored.
• 0:26
  They're stored as well at damradio.com forward
• 0:30
  slash podcast.
• 0:32
  I have a lot of topics to talk
• 0:34
  about.
• 0:35
  But the first one I want to talk
• 0:36
  about was was war in Iran.
• 0:40
  Obviously, that's going to be a theme running
• 0:42
  through a lot of today's program.
• 0:45
  And I wonder if that's too high or
• 0:50
  I'm talking too loud or if something is
• 0:52
  just not quite correct.
• 0:54
  Anyway, so last Wednesday, I drove here to
• 1:01
  Florida.
• 1:02
  I'm in Florida right now.
• 1:05
  And, you know, you pay for various prices
• 1:10
  in gas.
• 1:11
  And it wasn't two weeks ago, maybe three,
• 1:16
  that I was talking about something Trumpish.
• 1:20
  I don't remember what.
• 1:22
  And I said on the program, I'm not
• 1:24
  going to go back and look for it.
• 1:25
  But I said something rather complimentary.
• 1:30
  I was like, well, the gas prices, you
• 1:33
  know, you can't complain about that.
• 1:34
  I just paid two dollars and forty nine
• 1:36
  cents for a gallon of gas.
• 1:43
  And yesterday and on my trip down here,
• 1:48
  I pay three dollars and 80 cents.
• 1:51
  And, you know, I've mentioned this.
• 1:53
  I think I mentioned it last week whilst
• 1:54
  driving down here.
• 1:57
  But it's really pissing me off.
• 2:00
  You know, it's like, man, I thought we
• 2:01
  got rid of the four dollar four dollar
• 2:04
  gas.
• 2:05
  And the way I do things, I buy
• 2:07
  regular gas all the time.
• 2:09
  You know, the low cost, you know, low
• 2:12
  octane, whatever it is.
• 2:13
  And then every third tank, you know, I
• 2:17
  don't go by ten dollars for the gas.
• 2:19
  I fill it up and I every third
• 2:23
  tank or so I put in some premium
• 2:25
  because or, you know, somebody told me once,
• 2:30
  just keep buying those bottles of bottles of
• 2:34
  octane booster to dump them in.
• 2:36
  Well, it's six, one half dozen the other,
• 2:39
  because the prices for that are, you know,
• 2:42
  you know, say it's seven bucks to buy
• 2:45
  one of those in today's crazy world.
• 2:49
  And.
• 2:50
  You can just pay that's cost you less
• 2:53
  to just fill up with a high octane
• 2:56
  booster once in a while.
• 2:58
  And a lot of you engine people out
• 2:59
  there probably think I'm nuts, but or don't
• 3:02
  know anything.
• 3:03
  And that's true about engines.
• 3:04
  But that's what I've always done is just
• 3:06
  every third, fourth tank, something like that.
• 3:09
  I'll buy the premium, but premium is like
• 3:14
  over four dollars a year.
• 3:17
  So your your regular gas is three dollars
• 3:20
  and 80 cents.
• 3:21
  And I saw a sign for premium at
• 3:23
  four thirty nine.
• 3:24
  And diesel was selling for five dollars and
• 3:27
  forty nine cents in a couple of places.
• 3:30
  You know, when you drive by.
• 3:32
  So I'm a little grumpy about that part
• 3:36
  of the Trump mega movement or whatever.
• 3:40
  And I don't know.
• 3:42
  I've never been really all in anyway.
• 3:44
  I think when he got elected in 2016,
• 3:48
  he was the the certainly the best option
• 3:52
  in the in the crappiest field.
• 3:55
  I mean, that was embarrassing.
• 3:58
  You know, it really was.
• 4:00
  This is what we have to pick from.
• 4:03
  And and truthfully, and I like Donald Trump.
• 4:05
  I think he's a very smart man.
• 4:06
  I think he's he's in general done well
• 4:10
  by the country in in the country.
• 4:14
  I've always thought he was horrible internationally, but
• 4:18
  I've thought that about most presidents for the
• 4:20
  you know, I'm OK to deal with that.
• 4:24
  We'll just have, you know, the Europeans always
• 4:26
  hated us.
• 4:28
  Treat us like wicked stepchildren because of all
• 4:31
  the military bases everywhere.
• 4:33
  And they've never really been all that positive.
• 4:36
  And it's pretty funny because everywhere you go
• 4:38
  in the world, well, except Mexico, but even
• 4:41
  there sometimes there, they just, you know, put
• 4:44
  up with us.
• 4:44
  But everywhere you go as an American, it's
• 4:46
  like you got to apologize.
• 4:48
  I had a I had a guy used
• 4:51
  to be on my on my home page.
• 4:54
  I had my job in Qatar and and
• 4:58
  I don't know why, but it got set
• 5:01
  up this way and I didn't set it
• 5:04
  up that way.
• 5:04
  I didn't even know how to back then.
• 5:06
  It I somebody had my screen when I
• 5:11
  would open up my computer.
• 5:17
  It would open up on some home page.
• 5:21
  I don't know if and I don't use
• 5:22
  the Microsoft whatever version of the browser they're
• 5:27
  trying to build to compete with Google.
• 5:30
  And I don't use it, but somehow it
• 5:33
  got set up to.
• 5:37
  Put in.
• 5:39
  Fox News on this browser I didn't use,
• 5:43
  and I was working with a Lebanese guy
• 5:46
  who was a really cool guy and very,
• 5:49
  very smart, educated in San Francisco.
• 5:51
  And he was just a pretty cool guy.
• 5:58
  And he.
• 6:00
  And I were working on a project and
• 6:03
  he came in and he said, he said,
• 6:05
  let me see your computer.
• 6:07
  And so I gave him my computer and
• 6:10
  he was checking it out.
• 6:15
  And so this while he was checking out,
• 6:19
  he said.
• 6:21
  He opened up that browser that I never
• 6:23
  use.
• 6:24
  He opened it up.
• 6:26
  And so when he opened it up, it
• 6:28
  opened up on Fox News.
• 6:29
  And I only give this to you as
• 6:30
  an example, but it opened up on some
• 6:32
  Fox News page for for news, you know,
• 6:35
  and he goes, oh, my God, you're one
• 6:38
  of those.
• 6:39
  And I said, one of what he goes,
• 6:42
  Fox News, really?
• 6:44
  And I was like, I don't understand.
• 6:46
  I said, I'm really not.
• 6:48
  I don't use that browser.
• 6:49
  I don't pick one over the other.
• 6:52
  I said, they're all a bunch of damn
• 6:53
  liars, in my opinion.
• 6:55
  And this was 2015 sometime.
• 6:58
  Trump was running for office at the time
• 7:00
  and it had to be 2015 because I
• 7:02
  was in Qatar the whole year of 2015.
• 7:04
  And he was giving me crap about Fox
• 7:11
  News.
• 7:11
  And he goes, you Americans, he goes every
• 7:14
  time, you know, he goes, where in the
• 7:16
  hell do you get your news?
• 7:18
  And he went he went off on our
• 7:20
  news process.
• 7:21
  He said that when he was in San
• 7:23
  Francisco, he was getting his MBA and whatever
• 7:27
  school he was going to in San Francisco.
• 7:29
  I remember, but he was getting his MBA
• 7:31
  and he said that he couldn't believe the
• 7:35
  crap of the news.
• 7:37
  He said none of your news is correct.
• 7:40
  He goes, you do know that.
• 7:41
  Right.
• 7:41
  I said, oh, yeah.
• 7:43
  And he goes, and Fox News is the
• 7:45
  worst.
• 7:45
  And I was like, well, I disagree with
• 7:47
  you on that one.
• 7:49
  It's at the time.
• 7:51
  I can't remember.
• 7:52
  It was O'Reilly nights or whatever.
• 7:54
  And I always thought O'Reilly was was
• 7:58
  pretty damn funny, but he's not news anyway.
• 8:00
  But I liked his commentary and I couldn't
• 8:04
  stand anybody else's really.
• 8:07
  And so I did.
• 8:08
  I did watch O'Reilly quite a bit
• 8:10
  or listen to him quite a bit.
• 8:12
  And but that impression of Americans, unfortunately, is
• 8:18
  something you bump into pretty frequently as the
• 8:21
  standard American.
• 8:23
  And I ran into I got into an
• 8:26
  elevator in.
• 8:29
  I was in Houston and I got into
• 8:31
  an Elvis a couple of years ago and
• 8:33
  I got into an elevator.
• 8:34
  It was either right after or at the
• 8:37
  tail end of Covid.
• 8:39
  And at the end of it, you know,
• 8:42
  I'd traveled down, was doing some work and
• 8:45
  I.
• 8:47
  Get in an elevator and there are three
• 8:50
  ladies in the elevator and they were talking
• 8:53
  about.
• 8:55
  And I forget exactly which topic they were
• 8:59
  talking about.
• 9:00
  And I couldn't believe how far off they
• 9:05
  all were.
• 9:06
  And they were having a discussion.
• 9:10
  Argument kind of about one of the Covid,
• 9:15
  you know, the idiocy of Covid that was
• 9:17
  going on and one had taken one side
• 9:19
  and one had taken the other.
• 9:20
  And they were both completely wrong.
• 9:24
  And I just sat there and listened to
• 9:27
  this argument that when they were going, you
• 9:29
  know, we're going up, you know, whatever it
• 9:31
  was, four floors or whatever.
• 9:33
  And I'm going, oh, my God, these poor
• 9:36
  people are way out of whack.
• 9:40
  It makes you wonder where they're getting their
• 9:42
  news, you know, how they're how they're doing
• 9:44
  it.
• 9:45
  And so I've been pretty critical of our
• 9:47
  news for the longest time and thought that
• 9:50
  we should we should do something more.
• 9:53
  I'm actually one of the people who is
• 9:56
  somewhat glad of having alternative sources of discussion,
• 10:01
  especially of talk radio.
• 10:03
  I've always been a talk radio or anyway.
• 10:06
  I've always liked it.
• 10:08
  I was a pretty big.
• 10:14
  Listener of Limbaugh way back when, and I
• 10:18
  didn't agree with him, you know, probably 30
• 10:21
  percent of the time, especially internationally, you know,
• 10:24
  international stuff.
• 10:26
  But he was certainly on point with nearly
• 10:29
  everything else.
• 10:30
  And I just or or I suppose maybe
• 10:33
  he mirrored my views quite a bit.
• 10:35
  You know, I don't it's not like I,
• 10:37
  you know, I needed him to tell me
• 10:39
  what to think.
• 10:39
  But it was his views mirror mine probably
• 10:45
  about 70 percent of the time.
• 10:47
  And that's unfortunately how I calculate it.
• 10:50
  It's well, you know, people are either.
• 10:54
  I never well, I shouldn't say never.
• 10:57
  I mean, I feel like people are really
• 10:58
  foolish if they're in the bottom 20 percent
• 11:00
  and don't understand either side of anything.
• 11:04
  There are those people out there and then
• 11:07
  there are other people who who are smarter
• 11:10
  than me.
• 11:10
  You know, there's plenty of those.
• 11:12
  And but then there'll be wrong, usually in
• 11:15
  the in the liberal sense of the word.
• 11:18
  They'll be their views will be so far
• 11:20
  off.
• 11:21
  You'll think they're very smart and very talented.
• 11:23
  And all of a sudden they'll spout off
• 11:25
  some some crap about, you know, having more
• 11:28
  than more than two genders or something like
• 11:30
  that.
• 11:31
  And you're going now, see, that's fake.
• 11:34
  You know, it's you obviously understand that there
• 11:36
  are only two genders if you're really that
• 11:39
  smart.
• 11:40
  And you just.
• 11:42
  Got sucked into this.
• 11:45
  Let's create a crazy world, you know, let's
• 11:47
  create problems for everybody else by by claiming
• 11:50
  there's, you know, several genders you can be.
• 11:53
  I don't I heard I've heard some really,
• 11:56
  really strange gender stories.
• 11:57
  Anyway, I kind of rambled a little bit
• 12:00
  like I always do.
• 12:01
  Sorry about that on this Monday morning.
• 12:03
  There's plenty of news to get to.
• 12:05
  And I wanted to begin with a question,
• 12:07
  really, that seems rather simple and but has
• 12:11
  some enormous consequences for the world.
• 12:15
  I've been watching news all weekend.
• 12:18
  Depressing, depressing world out there.
• 12:23
  Internationally, there's nothing but what positive is going
• 12:27
  on in all seriousness.
• 12:28
  I mean, we're attacking Iran.
• 12:30
  We're we're we're plotting more war.
• 12:35
  There's there's I have questions up here on
• 12:37
  all my tabs pulled up that are just
• 12:39
  hilarious.
• 12:40
  But, you know, what happens when a regional
• 12:44
  conflict directly sits on top of the world's
• 12:48
  most important energy source?
• 12:50
  Well, you can see it.
• 12:52
  It's the gas prices I'm bitching about.
• 12:54
  You know, a month ago, I was paying
• 12:57
  two dollars and forty nine cents and the
• 12:59
  other day I paid three seventy seven.
• 13:01
  Now, is that people taking advantage or is
• 13:04
  it a real a real price gouging the
• 13:08
  that that has happened before?
• 13:11
  And it'll happen again where they gouge you
• 13:13
  to somebody just opportunistically taking the the worst
• 13:17
  part of the news and turning it into
• 13:19
  three dollars and seventy seven.
• 13:20
  Since for a gallon of gas, that's precisely,
• 13:25
  you know, these.
• 13:26
  But the situation in the Persian Gulf, the
• 13:29
  reports circulating in international media talk about strikes
• 13:32
  connected to now they're attacking Iran's oil structure.
• 13:36
  OK.
• 13:38
  Ukraine is attacking Russia's oil infrastructure, Russia's natural
• 13:44
  gas pipelines, Russia's cut off Ukraine completely from
• 13:50
  gas and are able to use their underground
• 13:53
  pipes to crawl through and attack their attack
• 13:57
  their military.
• 13:58
  Now, you know, during that thing I told
• 14:01
  you about up in.
• 14:04
  Just north of the Ukraine area at near
• 14:08
  Belgrade, and they they were.
• 14:12
  They were hit.
• 14:13
  So a lot of their facilities have been
• 14:15
  targeted.
• 14:15
  That's what Ukraine is doing, by the way,
• 14:17
  with U.S. and British intelligence.
• 14:21
  That's what they're doing.
• 14:23
  And they're they're using British and they were
• 14:26
  trying to use American missiles targeting with U
• 14:31
  .S. data, targeting with British data and targeting
• 14:36
  with French data when using the French missiles.
• 14:40
  And they're providing this intelligence.
• 14:43
  All these other countries, including the U.S.,
• 14:46
  are providing their military intelligence to Ukraine.
• 14:50
  They are very supportive of of Ukraine's role
• 14:56
  in being the stick that NATO gets to
• 15:00
  use to beat Russia with.
• 15:02
  They think, you know, it hasn't worked out
• 15:04
  like they thought, but that's what they're doing.
• 15:07
  So Russia is in return bombing the crap
• 15:11
  out of Ukraine's infrastructure, oil stuff, and everybody's
• 15:16
  getting in on it.
• 15:18
  The Trump is stealing Venezuela.
• 15:21
  It's now state number.
• 15:23
  What are we up to with him?
• 15:24
  Fifty three.
• 15:25
  Fifty four.
• 15:26
  You know, Canada's 51.
• 15:28
  Israel's 52.
• 15:29
  Greenland's 53.
• 15:31
  So Venezuela would have to be 54 and
• 15:34
  Cuba will be 55, you know, because apparently
• 15:37
  we're taking that over, too.
• 15:39
  We're just going to bomb the crap out
• 15:41
  of everybody.
• 15:41
  We're going to bomb you into submission because
• 15:44
  that's what we're supposed to do.
• 15:45
  We're Americans.
• 15:47
  And so we hit a bomb you.
• 15:49
  And that's that.
• 15:51
  And you don't get to complain about it.
• 15:52
  And Israel gets to bomb you.
• 15:54
  And that, too, is that.
• 15:55
  And, you know, quit your bitching.
• 15:58
  Everybody quit bitching.
• 16:00
  I'm in charge.
• 16:01
  I'm Donald Trump.
• 16:03
  Thank you for your attention to this matter.
• 16:05
  So reports circulating talk about strikes on all
• 16:09
  sorts of infrastructure.
• 16:11
  And now they're talking about this place called
• 16:13
  Karg Island.
• 16:15
  Now, Karg Island is not an obscure piece
• 16:17
  of geography known only to maritime maps and
• 16:20
  oil traders.
• 16:21
  It is the primary export terminal for your
• 16:25
  Iranian crude.
• 16:27
  So the location, this location is where the
• 16:30
  overwhelming majority of Iran's petroleum exports pass before
• 16:35
  entering the global market.
• 16:37
  And, you know, on their way to China,
• 16:39
  India, a place like that, when a target
• 16:42
  like that becomes involved in the military escalation,
• 16:45
  the implications go far, far beyond, very far
• 16:50
  beyond the economy of just one country.
• 16:56
  The global energy system is built around an
• 17:00
  expectation.
• 17:02
  And that expectation is that the oil flow
• 17:06
  will be uninterrupted through a handful of narrow
• 17:10
  corridors.
• 17:11
  And then the Persian Gulf and the Straits
• 17:14
  of Hormuz are the center, the very center
• 17:17
  of that system.
• 17:19
  And when tension is there, the markets definitely
• 17:22
  notice.
• 17:23
  Shipping companies notice.
• 17:25
  Governments around the world have to recalculate risk.
• 17:28
  Donald Trump has to promise to pay insurance
• 17:31
  costs for everybody.
• 17:32
  Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 17:33
  No problem.
• 17:34
  We'll just keep bombing and I'll pay the
• 17:36
  insurance.
• 17:36
  You know, we'll sell you insurance.
• 17:38
  Who needs Lloyd's London?
• 17:39
  We don't need them.
• 17:41
  We don't need no stinking badges.
• 17:44
  We have Donald Trump and he will get
• 17:47
  rid of Lloyd's London if he feels like
• 17:50
  it.
• 17:51
  So we've also seen reports that now American
• 17:53
  military deployment in the region, they say that
• 17:56
  5,000 Marines are being petitioned, positioned to.
• 18:02
  Take over.
• 18:04
  We're going to take it over.
• 18:06
  We're taking this island.
• 18:08
  It's going to be ours.
• 18:08
  You think somebody isn't going to bomb the
• 18:10
  crap out of oil refineries there?
• 18:12
  If you do, I wouldn't want to be
• 18:14
  one of the guys headed to that place
• 18:16
  because.
• 18:18
  Tell you what, I almost guarantee this, that
• 18:21
  we take that island and Iran will figure
• 18:23
  out a way to blow it up on
• 18:25
  their way out and blow up everything in
• 18:28
  any of the refinery that is going on
• 18:30
  in that location.
• 18:32
  They'll figure out how to blow it up
• 18:33
  and make it useless on their way out
• 18:36
  the door as they are losing.
• 18:38
  So I would do what anybody would do.
• 18:40
  Well, if I can't have it, neither can
• 18:42
  you, Donald Trump.
• 18:44
  And that's just not going to happen.
• 18:46
  And I don't think things are going as
• 18:48
  well as he's advertising for sure in this
• 18:52
  scenario.
• 18:53
  But they might not be as as bad
• 18:56
  as all that just yet either.
• 18:59
  So but we do have now Marines are
• 19:02
  deployed.
• 19:03
  You know, this expeditionary force designed for, you
• 19:07
  know, I don't know, whatever contingency where situations
• 19:10
  can change quickly.
• 19:12
  They send in the Marines here.
• 19:13
  Here's 5,000 of them.
• 19:14
  We can you know, we can take over
• 19:16
  Iran with 5,000 Marines.
• 19:18
  Good luck with that thought, too.
• 19:19
  Their presence signals that planners are preparing for
• 19:24
  more possibilities attacking, protecting, allegedly shipping lanes, responding
• 19:31
  to new missile strikes, evacuating civilians, reinforcing allied
• 19:36
  installations across the Gulf.
• 19:39
  And the region itself is heavily militarized anyway,
• 19:43
  has American naval forces, Iranian missile batteries, regional
• 19:48
  air defense, fleets of ships everywhere, several countries
• 19:52
  that are operating within relatively confined waters.
• 19:57
  So when many actors are occupying the same
• 20:00
  space, you really don't get much margin for
• 20:05
  error.
• 20:06
  Now, do you?
• 20:08
  A single strike can trigger retaliation, retaliation, escalation,
• 20:13
  escalation turns into.
• 20:17
  Very localized confrontation and turns into something much
• 20:22
  larger.
• 20:23
  So at the same time, this story.
• 20:27
  Doesn't end with, you know, the military diplomacy
• 20:30
  is allegedly unfolding.
• 20:32
  I doubt it.
• 20:33
  It's I doubt it'll work.
• 20:36
  You know, we have several parallel options going
• 20:39
  on and much of the diplomacy is allegedly
• 20:42
  being carried out.
• 20:45
  In the public, I watched an interesting interview
• 20:48
  the other day with New Ben's.
• 20:52
  Yeah.
• 20:53
  And I've talked about him a couple of
• 20:55
  times before.
• 20:56
  And I like to watch him when he's
• 20:57
  on BBC.
• 21:00
  And he was on an interview in the
• 21:03
  United Kingdom.
• 21:04
  And as well, at least this one was
• 21:07
  United Kingdom within the last week or so.
• 21:10
  And.
• 21:11
  You know, he's been pretty.
• 21:17
  Steady in everything that he has said, and,
• 21:20
  you know, that's one thing I admire about
• 21:24
  most of the.
• 21:27
  Well, geez, nearly all of the political faces
• 21:32
  attached to Moscow, to Russia.
• 21:39
  They and China, too, for that matter, they
• 21:43
  come out and they tell a story very
• 21:46
  diplomatically.
• 21:47
  You know, they're not selling you something.
• 21:49
  And if they are, they're selling it to
• 21:51
  you subtly.
• 21:52
  Now, they're still politicians.
• 21:56
  And so you got to suspect everything they
• 21:58
  say anyway.
• 21:59
  But it's like I told you several, several
• 22:03
  times.
• 22:03
  It.
• 22:05
  When you're in that sort of a different
• 22:08
  sort of system that is not quite democracy
• 22:13
  and not autocracy, but something in between where
• 22:18
  the where the authority is in a different.
• 22:24
  Is in a different mode than it allegedly
• 22:27
  is in the US.
• 22:28
  I talked about that book that was written
• 22:34
  by Mearsheimer, the the politics of lies or
• 22:39
  whatever it was called, that says that you're
• 22:41
  you're actually more likely to get lies.
• 22:46
  In diplomas are diplomatic democratic countries than you
• 22:53
  are in autocracies, because autocracies, they really don't
• 22:58
  have to lie.
• 22:59
  They can tell the truth because they're not
• 23:02
  in as much danger of losing their their
• 23:04
  positions anyway.
• 23:06
  I kind of like that theory.
• 23:07
  I'm not saying it's all accurate, but it's
• 23:09
  an interesting theory.
• 23:11
  And and and by the way, it makes
• 23:14
  sense.
• 23:15
  You know, you don't have to lie to
• 23:16
  the public if the public can't remove you
• 23:19
  anyway.
• 23:21
  If you're in China, the public isn't going
• 23:23
  to remove you.
• 23:24
  You know, this is not going to happen.
• 23:27
  And so why would you lie to your
• 23:29
  own people?
• 23:30
  You know, you're you're the need to lie
• 23:32
  to your own people goes way down, which
• 23:35
  is, you know.
• 23:37
  Quite true.
• 23:37
  You know, I tell you what, I mean,
• 23:41
  all we are is lied to and we're
• 23:44
  allegedly the most democratic country in the world.
• 23:48
  And we're the most lied to.
• 23:49
  We never get told the truth by anybody.
• 23:53
  They're all politicians and they don't tell us
• 23:56
  the truth.
• 23:56
  So at any rate, Russia's ambassador and Vasily,
• 24:01
  I think it is his first name.
• 24:03
  Doesn't matter.
• 24:03
  His name is Nebensia.
• 24:05
  And he's the ambassador to the United Kingdom.
• 24:07
  And I watched an interesting interview with him
• 24:09
  we're going to get into.
• 24:10
  And one of the questions it was this
• 24:14
  is probably my favorite question was when.
• 24:20
  The interviewer says to Nebensia.
• 24:23
  He says, now, isn't it true that you're
• 24:29
  supplying Iran with military intelligence, with targeting data?
• 24:34
  And he goes, I really don't know the
• 24:36
  answer to that question.
• 24:37
  I'm not going to speak about it.
• 24:38
  And this is an English version.
• 24:40
  You can go out and watch it if
• 24:41
  you like.
• 24:41
  It was actually a good interview.
• 24:43
  And I found it on YouTube and it
• 24:45
  was in the last week.
• 24:46
  And he he says he deflected in the
• 24:51
  deflection was great.
• 24:53
  I mean, that's what they do.
• 24:54
  Everybody does it.
• 24:55
  The Clintons always did it.
• 24:56
  They never answered the question.
• 24:58
  Never.
• 24:59
  They would immediately attack somebody else.
• 25:01
  And so and politicians learn to do that.
• 25:05
  It wasn't me.
• 25:06
  It was the one armed man over there.
• 25:09
  Let's go, you know, get the story from
• 25:11
  him, you know, or you're mistaken.
• 25:15
  You don't answer the question.
• 25:17
  You don't give them any detail.
• 25:18
  You just say you're mistaken.
• 25:20
  But I believe this guy over here, the
• 25:22
  one armed man, had something to do with
• 25:24
  it.
• 25:24
  Our research shows that he did.
• 25:26
  Let's go talk to the one armed man.
• 25:28
  And they lead you in a different direction.
• 25:31
  And so that is the classic diplomatic deflection.
• 25:35
  Right.
• 25:35
  That's how they do it.
• 25:36
  It's like a school they go to for
• 25:38
  that for that type of mistruth.
• 25:42
  Right.
• 25:43
  And so Novenza, instead of answering the question,
• 25:46
  he said, first of all, even if I
• 25:50
  knew that answer, I wouldn't give it to
• 25:52
  you.
• 25:52
  I'm you know, I represent Russia and I
• 25:55
  like how steady they all say that stuff.
• 25:58
  We don't talk about military things openly unless
• 26:02
  it's the Department of Defense, unless it's the
• 26:06
  commander in chief.
• 26:07
  You know that he's talking about Putin, if
• 26:09
  Putin or the military want to give that
• 26:12
  out, that's great.
• 26:13
  But it's not my job to give out
• 26:14
  that information.
• 26:16
  And the guy goes, yeah, but you're the
• 26:17
  ambassador to England.
• 26:19
  He said, yeah.
• 26:20
  He said, what I think is you should
• 26:22
  explain to me whether or not the United
• 26:26
  Kingdom is providing targeting data to allow Ukraine
• 26:31
  to target facilities in Russia.
• 26:36
  Because they are and the French are and
• 26:41
  the US are.
• 26:43
  And if we are providing targeting data to
• 26:47
  Iran, why is that a problem?
• 26:51
  It's obviously OK for allies to provide each
• 26:54
  other with targeting data.
• 26:57
  We've spoken out about it, meaning Nobinza and
• 27:01
  Russia have spoken about these things for the
• 27:05
  entire length of the war and how it
• 27:07
  just keeps pointing out that it's not Ukraine
• 27:10
  that is fighting.
• 27:11
  It is the West collectively.
• 27:14
  And so he talked about that and he
• 27:17
  argued that allegations that are repeated so frequently
• 27:21
  in news that they are treated as established
• 27:24
  fact before they report any concrete evidence.
• 27:29
  Who needs evidence?
• 27:31
  We don't need that.
• 27:33
  We can just weak evidence.
• 27:36
  Come on.
• 27:37
  What are you talking about?
• 27:38
  We're the government.
• 27:40
  We're here to help.
• 27:41
  And what we say, you know, is is
• 27:43
  for your benefit.
• 27:45
  They don't say that it's true, but it's
• 27:47
  certainly helpful for you.
• 27:48
  So whether you agree with that argument or
• 27:50
  not, the the exchange between them illustrates an
• 27:55
  important reality about modern geopolitical relationships.
• 27:59
  Information itself is the battlefield and where you
• 28:04
  get your information is the battlefield.
• 28:08
  And I challenge everybody to really try to
• 28:12
  vary where you're getting your information.
• 28:14
  If you are getting the information that you
• 28:17
  use from one source, only Fox News, whatever,
• 28:22
  like the Lebanese guy was complaining to me
• 28:25
  about claiming I was an American dupe for
• 28:32
  a whole year.
• 28:33
  He gave me crap about that.
• 28:34
  He saw it like in the first week
• 28:36
  we were there the whole year.
• 28:37
  He gave me crap.
• 28:38
  Well, you know, geez, why don't you ask
• 28:40
  Fox News or something like that?
• 28:43
  You know, something came up.
• 28:44
  Is that what Fox News told you?
• 28:47
  Because he was a great guy.
• 28:49
  It was a lot of fun.
• 28:50
  But and he was giving me crap nearly
• 28:52
  every day anyway.
• 28:53
  But if you agree with that argument, you
• 28:56
  know, it's an important reality.
• 28:57
  Information is what we're talking about.
• 29:00
  Governments compete, you know, not only through military
• 29:04
  economic power, but through.
• 29:07
  Shaping the narrative, you know, Hillary Clinton shaped
• 29:12
  the narrative for international stuff and she robbed
• 29:15
  everybody blind or allowed everybody to rob the
• 29:19
  U.S. Agency for International Development blind.
• 29:21
  That place has been a scam for years.
• 29:23
  They just pass out free money to people,
• 29:28
  give them a bag of cash and say,
• 29:29
  OK, go spread this around Iraq, because we
• 29:33
  need to we need to make sure that
• 29:36
  the public's in our favor.
• 29:37
  So you go open up some some local
• 29:40
  radio channel over here.
• 29:41
  You get some clown over here to start
• 29:43
  spouting off the things that we want him
• 29:45
  to spout off about.
• 29:46
  And he could have a couple hundred thousand
• 29:49
  dollars a year for that.
• 29:51
  And the guys used to make in 10
• 29:52
  bucks a month.
• 29:53
  And so they'll say whatever you want, whatever
• 29:55
  you wanted to say, you know, if you're
• 29:57
  going to be U.S. Agency for International
• 29:59
  Development.
• 30:00
  But the 200000 is really a million because
• 30:02
  everybody along the way before the 200000 gets
• 30:05
  there has to get their slice of the
• 30:08
  million.
• 30:08
  So by the time it gets to the
• 30:10
  point where it's supposed to do some good,
• 30:12
  everybody's already siphoned off their little bit.
• 30:15
  You know, Hillary Clinton's daughter gets whatever it
• 30:18
  was, whatever they report it was.
• 30:19
  And I don't know that that's true, but
• 30:21
  that's what everybody reports is that she got
• 30:23
  through her her contacts.
• 30:26
  If you're connected, you get, you know, 85
• 30:28
  million bucks.
• 30:30
  And if you're not, you get attacked until
• 30:34
  you're canceled.
• 30:37
  That's that's democracy, people.
• 30:39
  Come on.
• 30:40
  So interviews, press briefings, media appearances are more
• 30:43
  like.
• 30:45
  Talking point strategies, extensions of this type of
• 30:50
  diplomacy.
• 30:50
  So when ambassadors are challenging media coverage directly,
• 30:55
  like Nibinja, they are not simply responding to
• 30:58
  the question.
• 30:59
  They're trying to influence how entire.
• 31:05
  Opposing side populations interpret the crisis and they're
• 31:12
  giving information.
• 31:14
  And we shouldn't believe Nibinja any more than
• 31:17
  we should believe Fox News.
• 31:20
  Somewhere in the middle is the truth.
• 31:23
  And some when you when you go to
• 31:24
  law school and I'm sure every lawyer's heard
• 31:26
  this.
• 31:26
  But when you go to law school, every
• 31:29
  you know, well, you always have a teacher
• 31:32
  who will say something like, you know, there
• 31:34
  are three sides to every story.
• 31:36
  There's his side, her side and the truth,
• 31:40
  you know, because the truth is somewhere in
• 31:43
  the middle.
• 31:44
  And you could argue that that's the jury
• 31:46
  side of it.
• 31:47
  The jury gets to decide the truth.
• 31:49
  But sadly, juries get it wrong far too
• 31:52
  often as well.
• 31:55
  The military part of this story becomes even
• 31:59
  more complicated when we talk about the strategies
• 32:04
  of.
• 32:05
  The world, you know, and who's helping who
• 32:08
  and how it works.
• 32:10
  I told you about it being risk, not
• 32:13
  a risk board, but a diplomacy game board
• 32:17
  instead.
• 32:18
  And.
• 32:20
  You know, you have to consider what Iran's
• 32:23
  strategic doctrine is.
• 32:25
  They've spent decades under sanctions developing what analysts
• 32:31
  describe as asymmetric deterrence.
• 32:35
  Have you heard about this instead of building
• 32:38
  massive conventional forces designed to fight large armies
• 32:43
  head to head?
• 32:45
  Iran is invested heavily in missile technology.
• 32:49
  They were selling it to Russia and their
• 32:52
  drone warfare were among are among the top
• 32:56
  in the world.
• 32:58
  And they were they've been selling them to
• 33:00
  everybody in their sphere of influence.
• 33:03
  And these networks of allied groups across the
• 33:07
  Middle East that everybody complains about that, you
• 33:10
  know, that Iran is back in terrorism.
• 33:13
  Now, Trump's calling the new guy a terrorist.
• 33:16
  Everybody's a terrorist all of a sudden, whether
• 33:18
  it's narco terrorism or straight up terrorism.
• 33:21
  That's how you narrate from the Western side.
• 33:24
  You just come out and everybody's a damn
• 33:26
  terrorist.
• 33:27
  We got to blow them up.
• 33:28
  But I thought we blew up all the
• 33:30
  terrorists, you know, when we took out the
• 33:32
  Taliban and then we had to take out
• 33:34
  ISIS.
• 33:35
  And we had to take out who else,
• 33:37
  whatever group.
• 33:38
  But then we let them back in.
• 33:39
  And we started paying their salaries because they
• 33:43
  turn on our side.
• 33:44
  But these capabilities that they're talking about with
• 33:48
  these network groups do allow Tehran to respond
• 33:53
  to threats.
• 33:55
  In a different way than the U.S.
• 33:58
  has to figure out at the beginning of
• 34:00
  this story, I started telling you that the.
• 34:04
  The military, the Marines were sending over 5000
• 34:07
  Marines is going to be great.
• 34:09
  They're going to take over an island.
• 34:10
  We're going to own us an island in
• 34:12
  the Persian Gulf.
• 34:12
  You know, we're going to go take that
• 34:14
  island straight from Iran with our 5000 Marines.
• 34:18
  You know how many are going to die
• 34:19
  on that trip?
• 34:20
  We don't know.
• 34:21
  Do we really want that damn island?
• 34:23
  Probably not.
• 34:24
  And is somebody going to be bombing the
• 34:26
  crap out of it every day for the
• 34:28
  rest of their lives?
• 34:30
  Absolutely, because that's the world that we're trying
• 34:32
  to create over there.
• 34:33
  So a strike in one country could be
• 34:36
  followed by actions carried out by allied militias,
• 34:40
  militia elsewhere.
• 34:42
  Right.
• 34:42
  And the approach is very complex strategically because
• 34:47
  they don't follow a linear.
• 34:49
  Gee, here's our 5000 troops.
• 34:52
  Take that island.
• 34:53
  You know, modern warfare.
• 34:57
  Which Ukraine has shown us, but in the
• 35:00
  middle with the missiles and rockets, all we
• 35:04
  talk about is drones, rockets, bombings, blowing things
• 35:08
  up.
• 35:09
  This type of war didn't exist before.
• 35:11
  It was localized.
• 35:13
  It was artillery batteries.
• 35:14
  It was.
• 35:16
  And you had some strategic aviation and some
• 35:19
  tactical as well.
• 35:20
  But they were fighting each other.
• 35:25
  Do you remember that?
• 35:25
  You know, the dogfights and planes fighting planes.
• 35:28
  You know, we were not happy with war
• 35:31
  only on the ground.
• 35:31
  We got to have it in the air,
• 35:32
  too.
• 35:33
  And air air warfare was always a part
• 35:36
  of it.
• 35:36
  But now you can shoot a missile from
• 35:38
  seven, several thousand miles away.
• 35:40
  And hypersonics, we still don't have the technology
• 35:44
  to stop them.
• 35:45
  You know, that's not working.
• 35:47
  And so they don't have so modern warfare.
• 35:50
  But in the Middle East resembles a web
• 35:52
  of interconnected points.
• 35:55
  It's not a it's not a line like
• 36:01
  it is in Ukraine, where Russia is taking
• 36:03
  over territory, pushing Ukraine back to the Dnieper
• 36:07
  River where they belong.
• 36:09
  And Russia's message about these type of events
• 36:12
  were when, you know, foreign ministry.
• 36:16
  I watched her briefing last Friday, too.
• 36:18
  And Maria Zakharova, I like listening to her.
• 36:21
  And her remarks repeated that Moscow's, you know,
• 36:25
  longstanding criticism, the Western governments.
• 36:28
  And I say this, too, because this is
• 36:31
  absolutely true.
• 36:32
  You don't have to agree with everything that
• 36:33
  I tell you.
• 36:34
  But.
• 36:35
  She says, I say that Western governments apply
• 36:41
  international law selectively or they completely ignore it,
• 36:47
  you know, selectively, but they want to apply
• 36:50
  it to the rest of the world.
• 36:52
  We did not have not followed the U
• 36:55
  .N. charter in Iran in this conflict.
• 36:59
  Israel has not either.
• 37:01
  Israel has been sanctioned for not sanctioned, but.
• 37:08
  Called on the carpet in the U.N.
• 37:11
  environments.
• 37:12
  I mean, heck, there's still an arrest warrant
• 37:14
  out for Netanyahu, if I if I recall
• 37:17
  correctly.
• 37:18
  And Zakharova was saying that you always apply
• 37:22
  the rules selectively.
• 37:24
  You invoke principles like sovereignty and territorial integrity
• 37:29
  when you're talking about Ukraine, right?
• 37:33
  When it's Ukraine, territorial integrity.
• 37:36
  What about all that?
• 37:37
  You know, what about what about the U
• 37:39
  .N. charter?
• 37:40
  Well, what's Iran saying right now?
• 37:44
  What about Ukraine?
• 37:46
  What about the U.N. charter?
• 37:49
  Why are you able to just attack us
• 37:52
  and try to you know, what about our
• 37:54
  territorial integrity?
• 37:56
  And so when you hear these things, you
• 37:58
  can't help but notice the opposing side, at
• 38:02
  least.
• 38:03
  And she said it and everybody knows this.
• 38:06
  And I talk about this as do every
• 38:09
  other qualified diplomatic person.
• 38:13
  They talk about multipolarity.
• 38:18
  They talk about the end of one size
• 38:24
  fits all.
• 38:25
  And that size is American.
• 38:26
  And, you know, somebody gave gave a lecture.
• 38:30
  Who was it?
• 38:35
  He's got Andre.
• 38:36
  Was it Andre Bezrukov?
• 38:39
  It might have been Andre Bezrukov.
• 38:42
  But but but but don't don't don't quote
• 38:44
  me too much on that.
• 38:45
  He gave a he gave a speech about
• 38:49
  the changing structure of this of the entire
• 38:57
  world dominated system.
• 38:58
  That's one side.
• 39:00
  And he calls it, you know, like.
• 39:04
  The West is gasping, it's last.
• 39:10
  And Donald Trump is the answer to the
• 39:12
  last gasp.
• 39:15
  Of trying to restore.
• 39:18
  The rules based order where the rules only
• 39:22
  apply to others.
• 39:24
  And Donald Trump is the last remnant of
• 39:29
  that.
• 39:30
  It was an interesting, interesting discussion.
• 39:33
  And there's been several themes on that same
• 39:37
  line that while we watch the world begin
• 39:41
  to.
• 39:45
  Regionalize.
• 39:46
  Nationalize, if you want to, but creating more
• 39:50
  block sorts of rules instead of.
• 39:54
  International one size fits all forced upon everyone
• 39:59
  by the United States because they control the
• 40:02
  U.N. and any financing that comes along
• 40:05
  with the World Bank or or the International
• 40:09
  Monetary Fund.
• 40:11
  And so.
• 40:13
  I agree with that perspective that hegemony is
• 40:17
  dying.
• 40:18
  That I agree with.
• 40:20
  Because it is.
• 40:23
  I believe that there's still an effort by
• 40:26
  the neocons to push it back in the
• 40:29
  direction or or to.
• 40:32
  Hold on for five more years if we
• 40:34
  can just get it five more years, we'll
• 40:36
  have Iran out of the picture and we'll
• 40:38
  own their oil fields.
• 40:39
  If we can push Russia back to its,
• 40:42
  you know, back to the Ural Mountains alone,
• 40:46
  alone, all of their resources to those Ukrainians
• 40:50
  haven't done it, though.
• 40:51
  So that the planners, if they really do
• 40:55
  exist, this group of elites, they they are
• 41:00
  definitely involved in pushing this, pushing this back.
• 41:05
  Right.
• 41:06
  Another perspective was also interesting.
• 41:10
  From Beijing, there was a press conference of
• 41:14
  their international, like their defense minister, their secretary
• 41:20
  of state sort of guy, very high up.
• 41:23
  And analysts are watching all of this stuff
• 41:26
  in the world.
• 41:26
  And trust me, the the Chinese have a
• 41:28
  completely different thought process.
• 41:32
  Well, they're watching the situation with very much
• 41:35
  interest.
• 41:36
  Energy security.
• 41:39
  China's economy depends heavily on oil imports from
• 41:43
  the Middle East.
• 41:44
  I forget the percentage, but I want to
• 41:46
  say it's more than 80 percent that comes
• 41:48
  from the very Straits of Hormuz and the
• 41:52
  island, this Karg Island they are talking about.
• 41:57
  And if you want to poke China in
• 41:59
  the eye, cancel their oil from the Middle
• 42:02
  East if you want to poke them in.
• 42:05
  And I'm not so positive we wish to
• 42:08
  to poke China in the eye.
• 42:10
  Their economy depends very heavily on what's going
• 42:14
  on on that particular island.
• 42:18
  And, you know, the choke point of the
• 42:20
  Straits of Hormuz is a is a critical
• 42:24
  choke point.
• 42:25
  It's not good for anybody for it to
• 42:27
  be closed.
• 42:28
  But it is if a conflict disrupts the
• 42:33
  shipping routes for a long term basis.
• 42:35
  The consequences aren't going to be limited to
• 42:38
  Sam having to pay three dollars and seventy
• 42:41
  seven cents a gallon for the cheap crap.
• 42:45
  Instead of two dollars and forty nine cents,
• 42:48
  manufacturing supply chains will be affected.
• 42:52
  Transportation networks will be affected.
• 42:56
  Financial markets across the world are going to
• 43:00
  be affected and are really going to feel
• 43:02
  the impact.
• 43:03
  They already are.
• 43:04
  This is supposed to be something very short.
• 43:08
  We're not hearing that right now.
• 43:10
  We're here and we're going to station some
• 43:11
  troops.
• 43:11
  We're going to take over another island.
• 43:13
  We're going to up the ante because that's
• 43:17
  what we do.
• 43:17
  We up the ante, you know, manufacturing supply
• 43:22
  chains aside, we're taking we're taking your oil
• 43:27
  hub.
• 43:28
  So you better blow it up when you
• 43:30
  leave.
• 43:30
  So at least it takes us a year
• 43:32
  or two to rebuild it.
• 43:34
  And China is facing a, you know, delicate
• 43:37
  act here.
• 43:39
  You know, they're trying to balance it as
• 43:41
  economic ties with Iran and as major trade
• 43:44
  relationships with other Gulf states like Saudi Arabia.
• 43:47
  And the UAE and Beijing strategy has been
• 43:50
  to emphasize stability and diplomacy, stability and diplomacy,
• 43:55
  stability and diplomacy.
• 43:57
  And they always talk about this.
• 43:59
  They always position themselves as a reasonable potential
• 44:03
  mediator that can facilitate dialogue among many regions.
• 44:08
  They have connections everywhere, just like us, you
• 44:12
  know, and Iran's own diplomatic message.
• 44:14
  It was I watched the interview and I
• 44:16
  don't know if you saw it yet, but
• 44:17
  there's a foreign minister is Abbas Aragchi.
• 44:22
  I don't know how to pronounce his name,
• 44:23
  who argued that that Tehran doesn't seek confrontation.
• 44:28
  They don't want it.
• 44:29
  They never did want it.
• 44:31
  But they will defend themselves after being attacked.
• 44:35
  I mean, he was pretty straight up about
• 44:37
  it.
• 44:38
  He said that Iran's security policies have been
• 44:42
  shaped by decades of sanctions and foreign military
• 44:46
  forces surrounding the country.
• 44:48
  From Tehran's perspective, deterrence isn't a choice, but
• 44:54
  a necessity.
• 44:54
  And at the same time, Iranian officials continue
• 44:59
  to state that diplomatic solutions are possible, particularly
• 45:03
  regarding disputes over Iran's nuclear program.
• 45:08
  So this deterrence talk, diplomacy, they have long
• 45:14
  defined what Iran has tried to do in
• 45:16
  its international posture.
• 45:18
  On one hand, the government seeks recognition of
• 45:21
  its own sovereignty.
• 45:23
  That's all it's all countries want.
• 45:26
  Venezuela wants to pick its own leaders.
• 45:29
  Iran wants to pick its own leaders.
• 45:31
  Why would Donald Trump be allowed to pick
• 45:33
  who gets to represent the people of Iran?
• 45:37
  On one hand, government seeks recognition of sovereignty,
• 45:41
  technological rights.
• 45:42
  Now, the other hand says that external pressure,
• 45:46
  you know, we will respond.
• 45:48
  We will, too.
• 45:49
  You know, that's how if somebody was doing
• 45:51
  that to the United States, if some country
• 45:54
  was bombing, trust me, we'd, you know, respond.
• 45:58
  And so that it's I don't know.
• 46:05
  Well, I do know.
• 46:06
  But I think recognizing these concepts is an
• 46:10
  important part of life.
• 46:13
  If you expect to understand what's going on
• 46:17
  in the international world and those people who
• 46:19
  just choose to ignore it all.
• 46:20
  And trust me, I've tried that as well.
• 46:22
  After the 2015 and after the nonsense of
• 46:26
  the of the running for president of that
• 46:29
  debacle, I was done for the longest time.
• 46:34
  I didn't even I didn't open anything.
• 46:36
  I was like, oh, my God, what is
• 46:38
  going on with our country?
• 46:39
  And and I and I just.
• 46:42
  Checked out, you know, and I didn't I
• 46:45
  didn't follow anything.
• 46:48
  And you know what?
• 46:49
  There's a lot of people that do that,
• 46:51
  that that that's their that's their.
• 46:54
  Way to cope with it is just ignore
• 46:57
  it.
• 46:57
  You can't do anything about it anyway.
• 47:00
  You know, what are we going to do
• 47:02
  about it?
• 47:03
  Since where are we going to stop Donald
• 47:05
  Trump from taking over Carg Island?
• 47:09
  That's going to be America.
• 47:12
  So I don't know.
• 47:13
  But I always worry about the economics of
• 47:15
  it all.
• 47:15
  And that is where we get to the
• 47:17
  economic dimension of the story.
• 47:20
  Sam's three dollar and seventy seven cent gallon
• 47:25
  of gas.
• 47:26
  I mean, what is that when you add
• 47:28
  it up?
• 47:28
  How much are you paying?
• 47:29
  Mars, 25 gallons in my tank, 25 gallons.
• 47:33
  And you got a dollar 20 higher than
• 47:36
  you were paying before.
• 47:38
  Isn't that nuts?
• 47:40
  That's all.
• 47:40
  So on a fill up, you're you're already
• 47:43
  you're already at.
• 47:47
  Seventy five dollars, you know, if you're near
• 47:52
  the end, we're right back up.
• 47:54
  Used to be 100 bucks.
• 47:55
  And I remember one time, you know, when
• 47:57
  we were back on the four gallon thing,
• 47:59
  I had a 35 gallon tank in my
• 48:01
  in my Ford and that thing, you know.
• 48:07
  To fill up when it was four dollars
• 48:09
  a gallon.
• 48:12
  Geez, what's like one hundred and forty bucks
• 48:15
  to fill the sucker up?
• 48:17
  One hundred and forty dollars is what you
• 48:19
  were paying.
• 48:22
  Crazy.
• 48:22
  And while we're headed right back there, we're
• 48:24
  almost there now.
• 48:25
  But when oil prices are surging, everything else,
• 48:30
  the price goes up to everything.
• 48:33
  Went to the grocery store, spent two hundred
• 48:36
  dollars and came out with four small bags
• 48:40
  and nothing.
• 48:41
  Two hundred bucks for for nothing.
• 48:44
  And it was like, oh, my God.
• 48:47
  What what did I do?
• 48:49
  And, you know, I don't look at prices
• 48:51
  in the grocery store.
• 48:53
  You just you like it.
• 48:54
  You take it.
• 48:55
  You know, I don't pick and choose very
• 48:58
  well.
• 48:59
  I just go in and get what I
• 49:00
  want.
• 49:01
  And then you get to the to the
• 49:03
  counter and you ring it up.
• 49:04
  It's like then the the sticker shock of
• 49:07
  two hundred dollars for that.
• 49:11
  You must be mad.
• 49:13
  Well, and then what are you going to
• 49:15
  do?
• 49:16
  Take it out and now you're going to
• 49:18
  examine prices.
• 49:19
  Well, maybe I'll start watching prices.
• 49:21
  And so, you know, because energy is going
• 49:24
  up and if we're blowing everything up, if
• 49:27
  everybody's blowing up each other's energy infrastructure and
• 49:33
  their sources of economic.
• 49:36
  Fluid money, then.
• 49:40
  We're in big trouble for a while going
• 49:45
  forward.
• 49:45
  It's not like we're going to get back
• 49:47
  to, you know, two dollars and forty nine
• 49:50
  cents.
• 49:50
  And we're going to end up, you know,
• 49:52
  with inflation in every single area of our
• 49:56
  lives.
• 49:57
  Food prices are like, you know, salmon is
• 50:00
  two hundred dollars.
• 50:01
  Hell, you go out to dinner without the
• 50:04
  dinner on.
• 50:05
  What was the name of that place?
• 50:07
  And I really liked it.
• 50:08
  And I haven't been to it in ages.
• 50:10
  And I went to the one in Brazil,
• 50:13
  in Rio.
• 50:16
  And I went to it and it's called.
• 50:21
  It's the one where they cut off all
• 50:23
  the food for you.
• 50:24
  There's several of them.
• 50:25
  This one, this particular one was Rhodesia Grill.
• 50:28
  And it was very tasty.
• 50:29
  It was very nice.
• 50:31
  And, you know, they cut off the meat
• 50:33
  for you.
• 50:34
  You used to be able to do that
• 50:35
  for a couple for about 60 bucks.
• 50:38
  And if you were drinking, maybe 80, you
• 50:41
  know, because you pay a little bit for
• 50:43
  the alcohol.
• 50:43
  But we weren't drinking, you know, we drink
• 50:45
  we drink tea.
• 50:47
  And and it was the bill was like
• 50:50
  a hundred and seventy bucks.
• 50:53
  And all we had was the regular buffet,
• 50:56
  a couple of desserts and some tea.
• 50:58
  That was it.
• 51:00
  A hundred and seventy dollars.
• 51:02
  It's like you got to be kidding me.
• 51:04
  You can't go out to eat.
• 51:06
  You can't go to the grocery store.
• 51:08
  You better start building your own food.
• 51:11
  I was talking to my sister the other
• 51:12
  day and she says they've got, you know,
• 51:15
  all kinds of.
• 51:18
  Of food storage that they've been, you know,
• 51:21
  they kill their own their own cows.
• 51:23
  And she recently killed a cow or two.
• 51:26
  And my other brother went up and took
• 51:29
  some of their meat and bought it.
• 51:31
  And so they're they're.
• 51:34
  Growing their own cows, you're raising their own
• 51:37
  cows.
• 51:37
  And she's like, well, a calf, a newborn
• 51:42
  calf.
• 51:44
  Some astronomical number like seven hundred dollars for
• 51:47
  a new newborn calf.
• 51:49
  Three months in already weaned.
• 51:51
  They're they're up to like 16, 17 hundred
• 51:53
  dollars to 2000.
• 51:55
  And, you know, that's walking money right there.
• 51:59
  And, you know, when you sell that meat,
• 52:01
  that's there's that's a good business.
• 52:04
  It's like, well, we need a few cows.
• 52:07
  Better start getting us some cows so that
• 52:09
  we can sell them to somebody else.
• 52:11
  I don't know.
• 52:11
  I'm sorry.
• 52:12
  I'm kind of got myself on a roll
• 52:15
  this morning.
• 52:16
  I don't know what happened, whether I had
• 52:18
  too much coffee or what.
• 52:19
  But when you look at the broad picture
• 52:21
  internationally, the world, even locally.
• 52:27
  This oil nonsense taking Venezuela.
• 52:32
  Now we're going to blow up Iran.
• 52:34
  Watch for the nuclear weapons coming from Israel.
• 52:37
  They're a bunch of nuts.
• 52:39
  And, you know, they'll be the first to
• 52:41
  bomb and go.
• 52:42
  Nope.
• 52:42
  God told us to do it.
• 52:43
  It's all right.
• 52:45
  OK, we're going to bomb the hell out
• 52:47
  of Iran.
• 52:48
  It's over.
• 52:49
  And then we'll just erase Iran from the
• 52:52
  map.
• 52:52
  And by the way.
• 52:55
  They'll think it's justified, it's justified, they're people
• 53:00
  trying to attack God's chosen.
• 53:02
  And so there you go.
• 53:04
  In America, we need to back God's chosen.
• 53:07
  Right, because we're God's chosen number two, you
• 53:10
  know, and number one is Israel, of course.
• 53:13
  And we cannot back down without doing everything
• 53:16
  for them.
• 53:17
  So I suggest that everybody step back and
• 53:19
  look at the broad picture.
• 53:21
  We're talking about military tension in one of
• 53:24
  the world's most strategic regions.
• 53:27
  Diplomatic rivalry that exists between major powers, China,
• 53:33
  U.S., Russia, the European Union.
• 53:40
  Something needs to happen here because this this
• 53:42
  failure of anyone to get along, especially in
• 53:47
  one of the world's most strategic reasons, the
• 53:51
  shifting alliances all over the place.
• 53:55
  Canada is starting to have serious discussions with
• 54:00
  China, Europe doing the same.
• 54:03
  All of these elements on its own are
• 54:07
  already significant changes in the world order.
• 54:11
  But when you take them together, they create
• 54:15
  an environment which means that events are going
• 54:18
  to and the consequences are going to spread
• 54:21
  very far beyond the point where they occur.
• 54:28
  Like.
• 54:30
  Iran having drone boats blow up a ship
• 54:35
  somewhere or attack a ship, disable it, cost
• 54:39
  money, not be able to afford insurance, blocking
• 54:43
  the Straits of Hormuz, taking of card by
• 54:47
  the United States, bombing in Qatar.
• 54:51
  You know, I got to thinking about this
• 54:52
  the other day in Qatar getting bombed with
• 54:56
  with, you know, Iranian missiles, or at least
• 54:59
  not bomb, you know, they they hit some
• 55:02
  of their oil supply points, but they mainly
• 55:06
  focused on the U.S. base Al Udeid
• 55:08
  out there, which is one of the largest
• 55:10
  in the Middle East.
• 55:11
  Very nice base, by the way.
• 55:13
  And they targeted that.
• 55:17
  And it's.
• 55:20
  You know, it's pretty interesting to me.
• 55:24
  The that there was no outcry when Israel
• 55:31
  bombed Qatar to take out some Hamas guy
• 55:37
  and they bombed it, they didn't ask permission,
• 55:41
  they didn't tell anybody we're going to invade
• 55:44
  your airspace, they just bombed Qatar.
• 55:46
  But that's OK, because it was Israel doing
• 55:50
  it.
• 55:51
  You know, the U.S. was all for
• 55:53
  that.
• 55:53
  You know, nobody condemned them for that except
• 55:57
  Qatar saying, what the hell?
• 55:59
  They were here for their protection and safety.
• 56:02
  You can't bomb in our country.
• 56:04
  And Israel says, yes, we can.
• 56:05
  We're Israel.
• 56:07
  God's chosen.
• 56:08
  Remember, geez, we were blowing up a bad
• 56:12
  guy.
• 56:12
  We're the good guys.
• 56:14
  And America, they back us anyway.
• 56:16
  So shut up, Qatar.
• 56:18
  But when Iran bombs the other way, everybody's
• 56:22
  going to condemn them because what are you
• 56:24
  doing bombing a U.S. base?
• 56:27
  You did you get Qatar's permission before you
• 56:30
  did that?
• 56:31
  And, you know, again, different rules for different
• 56:36
  people.
• 56:36
  That's how it works.
• 56:37
  But history teaches us that turning points like
• 56:40
  we're experiencing right now aren't always obvious while
• 56:45
  they are happening.
• 56:46
  Moments that later define an entire era sometimes
• 56:51
  appear at first as a series of isolated
• 56:54
  developments.
• 56:55
  An airstrike here, a diplomatic dispute there, a
• 56:59
  sudden movement in oil prices or the currency
• 57:01
  market.
• 57:02
  And only later do we figure out that
• 57:05
  these events were connected pieces of a much
• 57:10
  larger transformation.
• 57:11
  Whether the current tension in the Persian Gulf
• 57:14
  is one of those turning points.
• 57:17
  Is is really a question of debate, but
• 57:21
  I think it may be because if what
• 57:25
  I believe is going to happen happens and
• 57:28
  I could be wrong, I've been wrong before.
• 57:30
  The question isn't whether the conflict can be
• 57:33
  avoided.
• 57:35
  The question is whether the international system itself
• 57:39
  is entering a period of profound change.
• 57:42
  I've seen a lot of articles in the
• 57:45
  last two weeks that talk about this is
• 57:49
  the reset of the planet away from the
• 57:55
  Bretton Woods type of.
• 57:58
  Type of structure.
• 58:00
  And I think that's a.
• 58:04
  That's a reality is what I think.
• 58:08
  I think it's a it's a pretty big
• 58:11
  deal.
• 58:12
  You know, when the Chinese analyst was talking
• 58:17
  about the Middle East because there was a.
• 58:21
  It was a pretty good interview.
• 58:24
  You know, I try to get a perspective
• 58:27
  from everybody and they were talking about the
• 58:30
  impacts of the conflict involving Iran because China
• 58:36
  is an ally of Iran.
• 58:38
  China brings in all their money from Iran
• 58:42
  or oil, I mean, and gives a lot
• 58:44
  of money to Iran.
• 58:46
  And we've talked before about all the port
• 58:48
  structure and all the money that is going
• 58:51
  into Iran from the Chinese, excuse me, and
• 58:55
  everywhere in that region.
• 58:57
  Right.
• 58:57
  So.
• 58:59
  China's primary concern globally now.
• 59:03
  Now, think about this, people think about the
• 59:07
  thought processes going on, if you're a person
• 59:11
  from China or you're the Chinese government.
• 59:13
  And remember, they're pulling all their money out
• 59:17
  of investing in the US in buying US
• 59:20
  debt.
• 59:21
  And instead, through their belts and roads initiative,
• 59:25
  they are focusing on the rest of the
• 59:28
  world and building infrastructure, building systems, global systems,
• 59:37
  including alternative pay structures and stuff like that.
• 59:41
  And everybody knows it.
• 59:43
  Certainly Donald Trump knows it.
• 59:46
  And that is, you know, China limiting China
• 59:50
  was one reason that Trump gave for going
• 59:53
  into Venezuela and stealing oil.
• 59:57
  And he gave the exact same after after
• 1:00:02
  after action report for why he was going
• 1:00:08
  into, you know, why he was bombing Iran.
• 1:00:11
  You know, it's terror, terror, terror.
• 1:00:14
  But now it's oil, oil, oil.
• 1:00:16
  And they're pretty open about it.
• 1:00:18
  You know, if we can if we can
• 1:00:19
  just take that oil, we'll control all that.
• 1:00:23
  We'll control infrastructure.
• 1:00:25
  Won't matter.
• 1:00:25
  And Sam's analysis regarding infrastructure isn't going to
• 1:00:28
  matter.
• 1:00:29
  And that region, the Middle East, China's primary
• 1:00:32
  concern is stability.
• 1:00:34
  They can't afford to lose buying 80 percent
• 1:00:37
  of Iran's exports of oil or getting 80
• 1:00:41
  percent of their oil from that area.
• 1:00:46
  So.
• 1:00:48
  If they don't have that source of energy.
• 1:00:52
  Their entire industrial economy is disrupted.
• 1:00:57
  Straits of Hormuz are one of the very
• 1:01:00
  important choke points for them.
• 1:01:03
  And so China will speak, you know, talking
• 1:01:05
  about this.
• 1:01:08
  They're economic partnerships with Iran.
• 1:01:12
  And the guy was, you know, I don't
• 1:01:14
  understand Chinese, but I had to listen to
• 1:01:18
  the to the English, of course, version.
• 1:01:21
  China's been attempting for years to position itself
• 1:01:24
  as a mediator to help out in keeping
• 1:01:29
  things stable.
• 1:01:31
  So think about that approach and then think
• 1:01:34
  about Donald Trump.
• 1:01:36
  His approach is chaos.
• 1:01:38
  Let's bomb the crap out of Iran supporting
• 1:01:42
  China.
• 1:01:45
  And but it's organized chaos.
• 1:01:46
  You know, I don't I don't mean to
• 1:01:47
  say he doesn't have a plan, but he's
• 1:01:50
  like, no, no, no.
• 1:01:52
  We control.
• 1:01:53
  We control.
• 1:01:54
  We control.
• 1:01:55
  Well, you're going to create more enemies than
• 1:01:57
  friends that way.
• 1:01:59
  And you can't force people to be your
• 1:02:01
  friend.
• 1:02:03
  And we have pissed off quite a few
• 1:02:04
  people by this sort of behavior and this
• 1:02:07
  sort of unilateral acting.
• 1:02:15
  In this quote came up several times during
• 1:02:20
  this Chinese foreign minister's speech the other day
• 1:02:25
  or press conference, I'm sorry.
• 1:02:27
  He said, you know, I'm going to share
• 1:02:29
  a few of them for you.
• 1:02:31
  For Beijing, he said, the Middle East, first
• 1:02:35
  and foremost, is an economic lifeline.
• 1:02:40
  That means a lot.
• 1:02:43
  He said.
• 1:02:45
  A war involving Iran, of course, will send
• 1:02:50
  immediate shock waves through global energy markets.
• 1:02:54
  We're watching it less than a month to
• 1:02:57
  go up a dollar 20 a gallon.
• 1:03:00
  China's primary interest in the Middle East is
• 1:03:03
  stability.
• 1:03:07
  Now, how do you get that stability?
• 1:03:10
  Do you get it by treating people as
• 1:03:12
  equals or do you get it by demonizing?
• 1:03:18
  It's a new demon every time.
• 1:03:20
  First, the demon is in Iraq.
• 1:03:22
  Then the demon is in Syria.
• 1:03:24
  Then the demon is in Yemen.
• 1:03:25
  Then the demon is in Iran.
• 1:03:27
  Then the demon will be in Turkey.
• 1:03:29
  I read an article that said the Turkey
• 1:03:32
  now fears that it's next on Israel's list.
• 1:03:37
  You know that because Israel's just picking off
• 1:03:40
  countries right now and they were just jumping
• 1:03:44
  in.
• 1:03:44
  Yeah.
• 1:03:45
  What they said, you know, I'm the big
• 1:03:47
  brother in the background without a brain.
• 1:03:49
  I just beat the crap out of people.
• 1:03:52
  If if little brother tells me and the
• 1:03:54
  little brother in this is Israel.
• 1:03:57
  And I've spoken enough on that topic, though.
• 1:04:02
  I wanted to talk about this.
• 1:04:05
  Struggle, if you were to contain Iranian attacks,
• 1:04:11
  so France said it is having problems with
• 1:04:15
  diminishing weapons as well.
• 1:04:18
  So they got some problems talking about how
• 1:04:25
  they think I raised something there.
• 1:04:31
  Let's get it back to normal.
• 1:04:32
  Sorry about that.
• 1:04:33
  If that went too high, I must have
• 1:04:35
  hit the wrong button here in the real
• 1:04:38
  estate of the art studio.
• 1:04:41
  Actually, the mobile studio, real estate of the
• 1:04:45
  art studio.
• 1:04:47
  But the French are also talking about dwindling
• 1:04:53
  stockpiles and soaring prices.
• 1:04:57
  And, you know, the U.S. allies are
• 1:05:01
  really trying to contain Iranian attacks and they're
• 1:05:06
  not doing very well at it.
• 1:05:09
  And this talk.
• 1:05:13
  Why are the French running out of missiles,
• 1:05:17
  is the question.
• 1:05:18
  Senior French officials reported last week to that,
• 1:05:26
  you know, they're having a discussion on escalating
• 1:05:28
  short air to air missiles.
• 1:05:31
  They're being rapidly expended trying to intercept Iranian
• 1:05:37
  kamikaze drones over the UAE.
• 1:05:41
  While President Trump claims the Pentagon has unlimited
• 1:05:45
  stockpiles, that's not what they're seeing in reality.
• 1:05:52
  Why are the French running out of missiles?
• 1:05:55
  Well, like many U.S. allies.
• 1:05:58
  France declined to join the Israeli-American bombing
• 1:06:02
  campaign against Iran and is only conducting what
• 1:06:07
  they call defensive operations.
• 1:06:10
  That means flying combat missions over the UAE,
• 1:06:15
  which they have done since the war began
• 1:06:17
  two weeks ago.
• 1:06:20
  They use French Rafale fighters, jets to intercept
• 1:06:25
  Iranian kamikaze drones.
• 1:06:27
  Using a multi-million dollar airplane, many, many
• 1:06:32
  millions airplane to fight $500 drones, 5,000
• 1:06:38
  if they're nice and armed, you know, and
• 1:06:40
  you get to use them the way that
• 1:06:43
  they're designed to bomb stuff.
• 1:06:44
  But either way, even if it is they're
• 1:06:47
  all $5,000 piece, that is a heavy
• 1:06:52
  price to pay to take out these drones
• 1:06:55
  because you never know which ones are loaded,
• 1:06:58
  which ones are decoys.
• 1:07:00
  So you're always flying them.
• 1:07:02
  And so they've been flying combat missions over
• 1:07:05
  the UAE.
• 1:07:06
  And on Sunday, yesterday, the Le Tribune reported
• 1:07:11
  the crisis meeting occurred and was held over
• 1:07:15
  the rapid expenditure of missiles used for intercept.
• 1:07:20
  Stockpiles are limited and very costly to replenish,
• 1:07:24
  especially compared to the Iranian weapons they have
• 1:07:27
  to take down.
• 1:07:28
  Now, an older generation missile for these planes
• 1:07:32
  costs an estimated 600,000 euro, which is
• 1:07:38
  $685,000.
• 1:07:41
  This is far more, you know, how many
• 1:07:45
  times more is that than your $5,000
• 1:07:49
  drone that they are making in Iran in
• 1:07:53
  abundance.
• 1:07:54
  So the French directorate of general armaments is
• 1:07:58
  reluctant to seek cheaper replacements because they would
• 1:08:03
  be less effective, says the report.
• 1:08:06
  But you can't go on paying 600,000
• 1:08:09
  to take out a $5,000 drone.
• 1:08:14
  And they don't have any drone technology in
• 1:08:16
  France.
• 1:08:17
  You know what they buy?
• 1:08:18
  They got to buy from Ukraine.
• 1:08:19
  Ukraine can't keep it up because Ukraine has
• 1:08:22
  to supply their own.
• 1:08:24
  And, you know, so this this issue is
• 1:08:28
  a is a big deal.
• 1:08:31
  And I'm not so sure.
• 1:08:34
  Well, they're all lying to us anyway.
• 1:08:37
  But I tell you what.
• 1:08:40
  What about the UAE itself that France is
• 1:08:43
  helping defend?
• 1:08:45
  Right.
• 1:08:45
  What about the Arab nations that host U
• 1:08:50
  .S. military bases?
• 1:08:52
  We're very much unprepared, reportedly for an all
• 1:08:57
  out war with Iran, with defense, with missile
• 1:09:00
  systems backing them up.
• 1:09:02
  And Tehran has a history of limited retaliation
• 1:09:07
  for a track attacks that are made against
• 1:09:10
  it, including last year's 12 day war that,
• 1:09:15
  you know, Israel started the war that the
• 1:09:19
  U.S. jumped right in, of course, last
• 1:09:21
  year, too.
• 1:09:23
  And the Iranians didn't respond by attacking other
• 1:09:29
  countries in the Middle East.
• 1:09:32
  So weapons stockpiles and usage are classified.
• 1:09:36
  You can't really have the data, but rough
• 1:09:39
  estimates are definitely possible.
• 1:09:41
  The Economist suggested that an Arab governor government
• 1:09:46
  report is says that.
• 1:09:53
  The intercepting of 880 Iranian missiles.
• 1:10:00
  And that the last 1900 Patriot surface to
• 1:10:05
  air missiles were launched.
• 1:10:07
  Possibly more if the commanders fired more than
• 1:10:11
  two interceptors per incoming weapon.
• 1:10:14
  So you're using a Patriot missile, which cost
• 1:10:18
  three million dollars to six million dollars.
• 1:10:22
  For nine out of 10 intercepts, because only
• 1:10:26
  the not only but the Patriot is the
• 1:10:29
  one that is the most accurate.
• 1:10:33
  And they're the cheapest one.
• 1:10:36
  And the more expensive THAAD and NASAM systems
• 1:10:38
  were also used.
• 1:10:40
  So they're running out of missiles, response missiles,
• 1:10:43
  defensive missiles for all these.
• 1:10:45
  And according to CBS, the White House is
• 1:10:49
  aware of the complaints that Gulf monarchies have
• 1:10:54
  to choose which incoming drone to shoot.
• 1:11:00
  Because they have missile shortages.
• 1:11:03
  So if if Iran is sending decoys, drones
• 1:11:07
  and all of that, things are not going
• 1:11:11
  to get any better because the numbers are
• 1:11:13
  wearing them out.
• 1:11:14
  And the dollars are what's really worried about.
• 1:11:18
  And but what about Israel?
• 1:11:19
  Let's talk about them for a minute.
• 1:11:21
  So the the fog of war, who knows
• 1:11:25
  what is going on inside of Israel, except
• 1:11:29
  those who are going through it right now?
• 1:11:33
  I see reports on both sides.
• 1:11:36
  Iron Dome.
• 1:11:37
  You see the Iron Dome guys sitting there
• 1:11:39
  saying nothing gets through.
• 1:11:41
  They're done.
• 1:11:42
  And then you watch telegram videos that show
• 1:11:45
  all kinds of action getting through all kinds
• 1:11:48
  of missiles.
• 1:11:49
  Cluster warheads coming out and they have to
• 1:11:53
  pick and choose which ones to go after
• 1:11:55
  in Israel, too.
• 1:11:58
  It reportedly faces a serious depletion problem, too.
• 1:12:04
  On Sunday, a person said that the international
• 1:12:09
  defense forces in Israel are running critically low
• 1:12:13
  on interceptors.
• 1:12:15
  And according to U.S. officials, Israel entered
• 1:12:19
  with the stockpile already diminished by last year's
• 1:12:23
  conflict.
• 1:12:24
  And it is unclear whether the U.S.
• 1:12:26
  can continue to replenish their stores.
• 1:12:31
  And the Israeli government, of course, denies this
• 1:12:34
  report, saying that we have everything just like
• 1:12:37
  Trump did.
• 1:12:37
  We have unlimited.
• 1:12:39
  We can fight.
• 1:12:41
  And so in the first week of the
• 1:12:42
  war, the Trump administration used its emergency powers
• 1:12:45
  to expedite the sale of 12,000 DLU
• 1:12:52
  -110A or B.
• 1:12:55
  And they are thousand pound bombs to Israel.
• 1:12:58
  So 12,000, part of a larger weapons
• 1:13:02
  package of around 650 million that was under
• 1:13:07
  informal congressional review.
• 1:13:11
  And so the bigger question is, what about
• 1:13:15
  the Pentagon?
• 1:13:15
  Have they been miscalculating all of this?
• 1:13:18
  Like I claim, I claim that this was
• 1:13:22
  foolish from the jump.
• 1:13:24
  That's what I claim, because they don't know,
• 1:13:27
  you know, which is which.
• 1:13:28
  And they don't know how many weapons they
• 1:13:31
  need.
• 1:13:32
  And they think Iran's just going to roll
• 1:13:34
  over.
• 1:13:35
  That's not going to happen.
• 1:13:36
  Or they think if you cut the head
• 1:13:39
  off a snake, that it'll quit wriggling.
• 1:13:42
  Not so if the snake has more heads
• 1:13:45
  to grow.
• 1:13:46
  And this one, they miscalculated.
• 1:13:50
  They miscalculated last year.
• 1:13:52
  I believe that Netanyahu convinced and his neocon
• 1:13:57
  buddies convinced the Trumpster to jump on board
• 1:14:01
  this action.
• 1:14:02
  And now we're stuck in it.
• 1:14:04
  And Trump can't be wrong.
• 1:14:07
  And so, therefore, he has to continue one
• 1:14:10
  -upsmanship.
• 1:14:11
  And, you know, with the president saying that
• 1:14:15
  the Pentagon has virtually unlimited weapons stockpile.
• 1:14:21
  What is virtually unlimited mean?
• 1:14:25
  Why is it virtually unlimited?
• 1:14:28
  Is it really unlimited?
• 1:14:30
  Somehow I doubt that, because it is definitely
• 1:14:33
  limited.
• 1:14:34
  But maybe if it's virtually unlimited, in theory,
• 1:14:37
  we can have as many as we need.
• 1:14:39
  Right?
• 1:14:40
  That's virtually unlimited?
• 1:14:42
  Well, in theory, they'll keep up.
• 1:14:45
  But they're not keeping up.
• 1:14:46
  The U.S. is moving additional assets from
• 1:14:50
  Asia.
• 1:14:51
  And the Koreans are pissed off about it.
• 1:14:54
  So, including these sad new anti-missile systems
• 1:14:58
  from other regions.
• 1:14:59
  And this is fueling concerns about other nations
• 1:15:04
  being affected.
• 1:15:05
  If you take them all from South Korea,
• 1:15:09
  South Korea, the government, is going to complain,
• 1:15:13
  which they have.
• 1:15:14
  They told the public, well, there's no problem
• 1:15:17
  with deterrence, regardless of whether we have to
• 1:15:21
  send half of our assets and missile defense
• 1:15:24
  off to the Middle East.
• 1:15:26
  According to local press there, the relocation of
• 1:15:29
  up to 48 THAAD interceptors to the Middle
• 1:15:33
  East is imminent.
• 1:15:36
  And Iran, for its part, it also claims
• 1:15:39
  it has large stockpiles of missiles and drones
• 1:15:42
  hidden underground and scattered nationwide.
• 1:15:46
  And reports that they're deploying new capabilities.
• 1:15:51
  If this is true, the dwindling defensive stockpile
• 1:15:55
  among opponents are going to give Tehran an
• 1:16:00
  edge.
• 1:16:01
  Because theirs are cheaper, faster to build, and
• 1:16:05
  they already have a very large head start.
• 1:16:11
  So, I think that is an important consideration
• 1:16:15
  going forward.
• 1:16:20
  The island of Karg takes kind of a
• 1:16:27
  backseat when you talk about whether you have
• 1:16:30
  enough missiles to keep it up or not,
• 1:16:32
  is what I say.
• 1:16:36
  Ursula von der Leyen was also in the
• 1:16:38
  news.
• 1:16:39
  She suddenly says the EU, and this is
• 1:16:43
  funny because it's a switch for her, right?
• 1:16:45
  She's always talked about the rules-based order.
• 1:16:49
  She's a lackey of the Clinton era.
• 1:16:54
  And this rules-based order that they followed,
• 1:16:57
  they're suddenly discovering what the lies were.
• 1:17:01
  And she said that the rules-based, well,
• 1:17:04
  in essence, that the rules-based order has
• 1:17:07
  failed in its mission.
• 1:17:09
  And that mission is to help the West
• 1:17:12
  do whatever it wants.
• 1:17:13
  Ursula von der Leyen suddenly says they can
• 1:17:16
  no longer count on old, reliable, unwritten rules
• 1:17:20
  of for me, but not for thee.
• 1:17:25
  So, when European Commissioner, well, the President of
• 1:17:30
  the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, had to
• 1:17:34
  come up with a speech for EU ambassadors,
• 1:17:37
  they're always meeting.
• 1:17:38
  She tried on a punk rock routine similar
• 1:17:43
  to the one that scored formal central banker
• 1:17:46
  and current Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, a
• 1:17:51
  standing ovation at Davos.
• 1:17:54
  Remember me sharing that with you?
• 1:17:56
  But one key difference made it flop.
• 1:18:02
  She forgot to look in the mirror.
• 1:18:04
  Her, Carney's, critical point was kind of he
• 1:18:08
  confessed.
• 1:18:09
  Remember that?
• 1:18:10
  The sign in the window, we've kept the
• 1:18:12
  sign in the window speech Mark Carney talked
• 1:18:15
  about at Davos, and one of the strongest
• 1:18:18
  speeches that he was talking about.
• 1:18:20
  And basically, he was responding to Trump, claiming
• 1:18:25
  that, you know, Canada's going to be, I
• 1:18:28
  think, 52 or whatever number he's up to
• 1:18:31
  now.
• 1:18:32
  And Carney was saying, well, the world has
• 1:18:36
  changed.
• 1:18:36
  This rules-based order, we looked the other
• 1:18:40
  way.
• 1:18:41
  I mean, he was pretty blunt about it.
• 1:18:42
  If you still haven't listened to his speech,
• 1:18:45
  you need to go listen to it.
• 1:18:48
  But he basically was confessing at that time.
• 1:18:52
  The people running Western democracy are the problem.
• 1:18:57
  The same ones the U.S. has been,
• 1:19:00
  you know, flouting for years through their own
• 1:19:05
  complicity, you know, those people.
• 1:19:09
  We participated in the rituals, he said, and
• 1:19:13
  we largely avoided calling out the gaps between
• 1:19:16
  rhetoric and reality.
• 1:19:19
  So Queen Ursula instead tried to pawn all
• 1:19:25
  of this off entirely on the system itself.
• 1:19:30
  She said that the rules-based system that
• 1:19:33
  we helped build with our allies can no
• 1:19:36
  longer be counted on to defend the EU
• 1:19:38
  and its interests.
• 1:19:39
  And that they all need to consider whether
• 1:19:42
  our doctrine, our institutions, and our decision-making,
• 1:19:46
  all designed in a post-war, talking about
• 1:19:49
  Bretton Woods, world of stability and multilateralism, have
• 1:19:55
  kept pace with the speed of change around
• 1:19:59
  us.
• 1:19:59
  Or if these rules-based order is a
• 1:20:03
  hindrance to our credibility as a geopolitical actor.
• 1:20:09
  Jeez, she's finally, finally said something correct.
• 1:20:14
  Of course it is.
• 1:20:17
  You have no credibility as a geopolitical actor.
• 1:20:21
  The entire West doesn't have it because it's
• 1:20:26
  always been and always will be rules for
• 1:20:31
  me, rules for thee, but not for me.
• 1:20:35
  So she said, you know, these rules might
• 1:20:41
  need to be revamped.
• 1:20:44
  So suddenly the old rules are no good
• 1:20:46
  anymore because they don't defend her interests.
• 1:20:48
  And now they're trying to force all of
• 1:20:53
  the EU to help the U.S. beat
• 1:20:56
  up on Iran when they don't want anything
• 1:20:58
  to do with it.
• 1:20:59
  They want the U.S. to help Ukraine
• 1:21:02
  beat up on Russia.
• 1:21:03
  They don't give a crap about Iran.
• 1:21:07
  Nobody gave a crap about Iran except Israel.
• 1:21:10
  That's why the U.S. is involved.
• 1:21:13
  Nobody else wants anything to do with it.
• 1:21:16
  So suddenly, you know, we're having these sorts
• 1:21:20
  of discussions.
• 1:21:22
  You know, but her real interest, I think,
• 1:21:25
  is more self-centered.
• 1:21:29
  The rules haven't kept up with the level
• 1:21:32
  of institutional corruption that these people have been
• 1:21:36
  practicing forever.
• 1:21:38
  Within hours, Spanish prime minister, hours of what
• 1:21:44
  she said, and the Spanish prime minister has
• 1:21:47
  always been pretty quick to be critical.
• 1:21:51
  And within hours of her speech, Pedro Sanchez
• 1:21:55
  said that the problem is disorder, not that
• 1:21:59
  the rules of the EU has again selectively
• 1:22:02
  refused to enforce.
• 1:22:04
  Talking about against Israel, American, Middle East bombing
• 1:22:07
  campaign.
• 1:22:11
  And what are these new rules that she
• 1:22:13
  wants to write?
• 1:22:14
  We don't know.
• 1:22:15
  We don't know what she's going to come
• 1:22:17
  up with.
• 1:22:17
  Maybe she should write them down so that
• 1:22:20
  we could see them.
• 1:22:21
  I don't know.
• 1:22:22
  But I'm telling you what, the whole world
• 1:22:25
  has gone crazy these days.
• 1:22:27
  And I had an interesting weekend watching way
• 1:22:30
  too much stuff.
• 1:22:32
  And including Axios saying they're doing it now.
• 1:22:37
  And also a very interesting story.
• 1:22:40
  And I wonder, it may be the last
• 1:22:43
  one, is the Polish through Tusk is saying
• 1:22:49
  that they may be exiting the EU.
• 1:22:54
  Now, this is news.
• 1:22:57
  He said there's a real threat that Poland
• 1:23:00
  could leave the EU after the country, you
• 1:23:04
  know, vetoed a bill that would allow Warsaw
• 1:23:08
  to tap billions in defense loans.
• 1:23:12
  You know, they wanted to get part of
• 1:23:14
  that money, but the people don't want any
• 1:23:15
  part of it.
• 1:23:16
  And President Rocky last week vetoed legislation that
• 1:23:22
  would have let Warsaw get another 44 billion
• 1:23:26
  euro, about 50 billion bucks in low interest
• 1:23:30
  defense loans.
• 1:23:32
  Most earmarked for domestic arms firms.
• 1:23:38
  The government responded to this by convening an
• 1:23:42
  emergency cabinet session.
• 1:23:45
  And authorizing its defense and finance ministers to
• 1:23:50
  sign the security action for Europe agreement.
• 1:23:56
  Directly, you know, get around the veto.
• 1:23:59
  In a post on Exxon Sunday, Tusk accused
• 1:24:02
  right wing parties, most of the opposition law
• 1:24:06
  and justice bloc, and Rocky personally, of seeking
• 1:24:10
  a Polish exit.
• 1:24:13
  He claimed Russia, the US, Donald Trump's MAGA
• 1:24:18
  movement, and European factions led by people like
• 1:24:22
  Viktor Orban of Hungary want to smash the
• 1:24:25
  EU.
• 1:24:26
  And he warned that for Poland, it would
• 1:24:29
  be a catastrophe if we smashed the EU.
• 1:24:34
  Western officials have long used the threat of
• 1:24:36
  Russian aggression to justify military spending.
• 1:24:41
  You know, including this 800 billion rearm Europe
• 1:24:46
  plan and NATO members pledging to raise their
• 1:24:49
  defense budgets to 6%.
• 1:24:53
  I'm sorry, 5% of their GDP.
• 1:24:56
  Moscow, you know, of course, has said the
• 1:24:59
  same thing.
• 1:25:00
  You guys are building up for a nothing
• 1:25:04
  burger.
• 1:25:05
  That's what you do.
• 1:25:06
  It's what you live for.
• 1:25:07
  So NATO's European members are scrambling to meet
• 1:25:12
  Washington's 5% target.
• 1:25:15
  And the EU is struggling to revive its
• 1:25:18
  defense industry, which it exported to China, and
• 1:25:21
  is having a hard time purchasing US weapons
• 1:25:26
  because, you know, they're all now being used
• 1:25:30
  in the Middle East instead of in Ukraine.
• 1:25:33
  Quite costly.
• 1:25:34
  So one of the EU's primary tools for
• 1:25:37
  addressing all three goals is this SAFE program
• 1:25:39
  introduced by the European Commission.
• 1:25:42
  It allows the bloc to borrow $150 billion
• 1:25:47
  on the global market to finance member state
• 1:25:51
  loans.
• 1:25:54
  This is, you know, more satirical than anything.
• 1:25:59
  Poland's not going anywhere.
• 1:26:01
  They wouldn't go anywhere.
• 1:26:05
  They have too much to lose if they
• 1:26:08
  do.
• 1:26:09
  So there you have it.
• 1:26:12
  However, the Iran war is going to bring
• 1:26:15
  billions, according to the Financial Times, to US
• 1:26:20
  energy firms.
• 1:26:22
  Yeah, because they're blowing them up all over
• 1:26:24
  the rest of the world.
• 1:26:26
  Where are you going to get your fuel
• 1:26:29
  if you don't get it from Russia?
• 1:26:30
  And by the way, remember what the price
• 1:26:33
  was held down to.
• 1:26:35
  It couldn't be more than $65, and they
• 1:26:37
  were trying to get it to $45 a
• 1:26:39
  barrel, and it was $110 a barrel over
• 1:26:42
  the weekend.
• 1:26:43
  And so who's benefiting?
• 1:26:45
  Russia.
• 1:26:46
  And who else is benefiting?
• 1:26:49
  US energy firms.
• 1:26:51
  American companies will be.
• 1:26:53
  And if Trump is a financial dude, which
• 1:26:57
  I believe he is, trust me, he knew
• 1:26:59
  all of this.
• 1:27:00
  And he's creating the very situation we're talking
• 1:27:03
  about where American companies, you know, if the
• 1:27:07
  price are over $100 a barrel, are going
• 1:27:09
  to have astronomical profits as a result of
• 1:27:14
  it.
• 1:27:14
  But the rest of us are still going
• 1:27:16
  to pay that, you know, $3.77 a
• 1:27:20
  gallon.
• 1:27:20
  So stay used to that because it's not
• 1:27:24
  going anywhere anytime soon.
• 1:27:27
  So the US is going to be one
• 1:27:30
  of the biggest beneficiaries.
• 1:27:32
  Oil prices have already surged to over $100
• 1:27:34
  a barrel, and American companies will receive about
• 1:27:42
  $63 billion from their own oil production.
• 1:27:47
  So Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose by
• 1:27:53
  30 percent, at one point topping $119 a
• 1:27:59
  barrel.
• 1:28:02
  $119 a barrel.
• 1:28:04
  It's lowered now.
• 1:28:06
  And Trump says the US is the biggest
• 1:28:08
  oil producer in the world by far.
• 1:28:11
  So when oil prices go up, we make
• 1:28:13
  a lot of money.
• 1:28:14
  He said on Truth Social the other day,
• 1:28:16
  you got to, yeah, see, I'm destroying everybody's
• 1:28:19
  oil infrastructure.
• 1:28:21
  Look at us.
• 1:28:21
  We're going to get rich over this.
• 1:28:24
  Stand up and get your money.
• 1:28:27
  Has he sent us those $2,000 checks
• 1:28:29
  yet?
• 1:28:30
  Weren't we all supposed to get $2,000
• 1:28:32
  checks?
• 1:28:32
  Where's mine?
• 1:28:33
  I want mine.
• 1:28:34
  And everybody gets them, you know.
• 1:28:36
  But you can complain about that if they're
• 1:28:38
  sending out COVID money.
• 1:28:39
  Remember the bitching about that?
• 1:28:42
  But it's okay to send out the money
• 1:28:43
  now because, you know, Trump's sharing tariff money.
• 1:28:48
  The about face came after Trump's team faced
• 1:28:56
  challenges in presenting a coherent plan for reopening
• 1:29:02
  the Straits of Hormuz.
• 1:29:03
  There's no plan that I've heard, except for
• 1:29:06
  open it up, Iran, or we're going to
• 1:29:08
  beat up on you some more.
• 1:29:10
  It's closed to U.S. and Israeli ships,
• 1:29:14
  despite not being physically sealed.
• 1:29:17
  According to The Guardian, more than 1,000
• 1:29:21
  cargo ships have been affected.
• 1:29:27
  And sadly, ladies and gentlemen, that's where I'm
• 1:29:29
  going to have to end it for today.
• 1:29:32
  I'm Samuel Trapp.
• 1:29:33
  This is International Flavor.
• 1:29:35
  Very glad you were able to join in
• 1:29:38
  today.
• 1:29:38
  And I hope that you do every day
• 1:29:40
  from 7.30 to 9 a.m. I'm
• 1:29:47
  not positive I'll be able to do a
• 1:29:48
  show tomorrow.
• 1:29:49
  I've got some traveling that I need to
• 1:29:52
  do.
• 1:29:53
  And I will keep you posted.
• 1:29:56
  So in the meantime, I hope you all
• 1:29:58
  have a very great mid-Missouri day.