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Elon Musk Explains New Tesla Cybercab · Elon Musk Podcast

• 0:01
  Hey everybody, welcome back to the Elon Musk Podcast.
• 0:05
  This is a show where we discuss the critical crossroads, the
• 0:08
  Shape, SpaceX, Tesla X, The Boring Company, and Neurolink.
• 0:13
  I'm your host, Will Walden. I have always found this
• 0:17
  interesting. 54% of you that listen to the show regularly
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  haven't yet subscribed to it. So can I ask you a favor before
• 0:25
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  new and interesting topics, and continue doing the show for you.
• 0:49
  Thank you so much. It's really, I was going to say
• 0:54
  doubling down on autonomy, but really it's like autonomy is
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  like 10X thing. Frankly, doubling is not even
• 1:00
  enough. We made many critical
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  investments in 2024 in manufacturing, AI and robotics
• 1:07
  that will bear immense fruit in the future.
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  Immense. Like it's in fact to such a
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  scale that it is difficult to comprehend.
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  And I've said this before and I'll stand by it.
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  I see a path. I'm not saying it's an easy
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  path, but I see a path for Tesla being the most valuable company
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  in the world by far, not even close.
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  Like maybe several times more than I mean, there is a path
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  where Tesla is worth more than the next top five companies
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  combined. There's a path to that.
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  I mean, I think it's like an incredibly, it's like a
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  difficult path, but it is an achievable path.
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  So and that is overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and
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  autonomous humanoid robots. So our focus is, is actually
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  building towards that. And then that that's what we're
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  laying the ground. We will lay the groundwork for
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  that in 2024. We'll continue to lay the
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  groundwork for that in 2025. In fact, more than lay the
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  groundwork actually be building the structure be we're building
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  the manufacturing lines. And like you know, I'd like
• 2:31
  setting up for what I think will be an epic 2026 and a ridiculous
• 2:37
  27 and 28 ridiculously good. That is my prediction.
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  You know, we as you had very few, very few people understand
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  the value of full self driving and our ability to monetize the
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  fleet. You know, I've some of these
• 3:00
  things I've said for quite a long time and I don't know,
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  people have said, well, you know, he wants the boy.
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  You're cried wolf like several times, but I'm telling you
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  there's a damn wolf at this time and you can drive it.
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  In fact, it can drive you. It's a self driving wolf.
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  You know, for a lot of people that they're like their
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  experience of Tesla autonomy is like if it's even a year old, if
• 3:23
  it's even 2 years old, that it's like me.
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  It's like meeting someone when they're like a toddler and
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  thinking that they're going to be a toddler forever, but
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  obviously not going to be a toddler forever if they grow up.
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  But if their last experience was like, oh, FSD was a toddler,
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  it's like, well, it's grown up now.
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  Have you seen it? It's like walks and talks, and
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  that's really what we've got. And it's difficult to for people
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  to understand this because human intuition is linear as opposed
• 3:52
  to what we're seeing is exponential progress.
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  So that's why my number one recommendation for anyone who
• 4:01
  doubts is simply try it. Have you tried it?
• 4:03
  When's the last time you tried it?
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  And the only people who are skeptical, the only people who
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  are skeptical are those who have not tried it.
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  So you know, a car goes, a passenger car typically has only
• 4:19
  about 10 hours of utility per week out of 168, a very small
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  percentage. Once that car is autonomous, my
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  rough estimate is that it is it is in use for at least a third
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  of the hours a week. So call it 5035 hours of the
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  week and it can be used for both cargo delivery and people
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  delivery. So even let's say people are
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  asleep, but you can deliver packages in the middle of the
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  night or resupply restaurants or whatever the case may be,
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  whatever people need at all hours of the day or night.
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  That same asset, the thing that that is these things that
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  already exist with no incremental cost change, just a
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  software update, now have five times or more of the utility
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  that they currently have. I, I am, I, I think this will be
• 5:14
  the, the largest asset value increase in human history.
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  Maybe there's something bigger, but I'm, I just don't know what
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  it is. And so people who look in the
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  rearview mirror are looking for past precedent, except I don't
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  think there is one. So you know that there's there,
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  but let the reality of autonomy is upon us.
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  And I repeat my advice, try driving the car or let it drive
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  you. So now it works very well in the
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  US, but of course, it will over time work just as well
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  everywhere else. Yeah.
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  So we're working hard to grow our annual volumes, our
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  constraint this year, our current constraint is battery
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  packs this year, but we're working on addressing best
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  constraint and I think we will make progress in addressing that
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  constraint. And then things are really going
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  to go ballistic next year and really ballistic in 27 and 28.
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  So, yeah, so a bit more on full self driving.
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  Our Q4 vehicle safety report shows continued year over year
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  improvement in safety for vehicles so that the safety
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  numbers, if somebody has supervised full self driving
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  turned on or not, the safety differences are gigantic.
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  So and people have seen the immense improvement with version
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  13 and with incremental versions in version 13.
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  And then version 14 is going to be yet another step beyond that.
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  That is very significant. We launched the Cortex training
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  cluster at Gigafactory Austin, which was a significant
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  contributor to FSD advancement. And we continue to invest in
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  training infrastructure out of Texas headquarters.
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  So the training needs for optimists or optimists humanoid
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  robot are probably at least ultimately 10X what what's
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  needed for the car at least to get to the full range of of
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  useful roles. I'm saying how many different
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  roles are there for a humanoid robot versus a car?
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  Humanoid robot is has probably what, 1000 times more uses and
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  more complex things than in a car.
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  That doesn't mean that the training scales by 1000, but
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  it's probably, you know, 10X now you can do this progressively.
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  So it doesn't mean like hotels are going to spend like $500
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  billion in training compute because we would obviously train
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  the optimist to do enough tasks to match the output of optimist
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  robots. But, and obviously the cost of
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  training is dropping dramatically with time.
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  So, but it is, it is like it is one of those things where I
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  think long term optimist will be optimist has the potential to be
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  north of $10 trillion in revenue.
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  Like it's really bananas. So then you can obviously afford
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  a lot of training compute in that situation.
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  In fact, even $500 billion training computing that
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  situation would be quite a good deal.
• 8:59
  Yeah, the future is going to be incredibly different from the
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  past, that's for sure. We live at this unbelievable
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  infection point in human history.
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  So yeah, so in the proof, the proof is in the pudding.
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  So we're going to be launching unsupervised Full Self driving
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  as a paid service in Austin in June.
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  So if I've talked with the team, we feel confident in being able
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  to do an initial launch of unsupervised no one in the car
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  Full Self driving in Austin in June.
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  We already have Tesla's operating autonomously
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  unsupervised Full Self driving at our factory in Fremont and
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  will soon be prepared during that factory in Texas.
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  So thousands of cars every day are driving with no one in them
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  at our Fremont factory in California.
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  They will soon be doing that in Austin and then elsewhere in the
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  world at the rest of our factories, which is pretty cool.
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  And the cars aren't just driving to exactly the same spot because
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  obviously it all when it collide at the same spot, the cars are
• 10:26
  actually programmed with. With where with what lane they
• 10:30
  need to park into to be picked up for delivery.
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  So they, they, they drive from the factory end of line to
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  their, to their destination parking spot and and the and the
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  to be picked up for delivery to customers.
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  And then doing this reliably every day, thousands of times a
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  day. That's pretty cool.
• 10:57
  Like I said, these Teslas will be in the wild.
• 11:00
  There's no one in them in June in Austin.
• 11:09
  Hey, thank you so much for listening today.
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• 11:12
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