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NFL Week 15 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: is our week fifteen Tuesday NFL episode. I am Chad Milman,
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We are coming
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: off of three in two a week in our contest
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: how about Them Cowboys. A lot of lines we've liked
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: have already moved since Sunday. Some have been moving this morning,
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: which is why you need to listen to our shows
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: if you want to get the best of the number.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: On today's show, we will get to our as Simon says,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: and our exec decision. On Thursday, we will finalize our
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Big Balls bet of the Week, our foxhul our survivor,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: our money Line parlay. Don't forget this episode. We'll look
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: at the entire board as we begin narrowing down the
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: five picks we'll enter me. Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: dollars Pro Football Pick Them Contest still free, Still open
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: for sign up, awarding weekly season long prizes at Favorites
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: dot actionnetwork dot com. Let's bring in my co host,
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, Mike Compadre, Professional Better, Simon Hunter,
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: eat O simed Simon. We nailed the Cowboys, no hesitation
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: all week. Good for us, got us to three and two.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: I like the spirit of Patrick Mahomes defending our bet,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: defending our lost bet the way he did. But nice
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: to be back in the waiting column.
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah. In another week where we debated about switching games
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: in and out, and the other one we talked about
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: switching in was the Giant So in typical fashion, we
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: put the losers in pick the winners out, Chad. So yeah,
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: happy to be three and two. I'll take it.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: It's actually unbelievable. I look back on last week. You know,
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: it's so hard on Sunday and I got I gotta admit,
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: like it's a long season. And like even last night,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: in the first half of that game, I don't know
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: if you watched the Giants game, but the like even
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Troy Aikman was basically saying, this product is just terrible
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: right now and it's almost unwatchable. And I last night,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: at the end of the first half went upstairs and
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: if not for the fact I had forgotten to fold
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: a week's worth of laundry from being on the road
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: and had to stay up and do it, I would
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: have been in bed before the Giants pulled that game out,
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: certainly long asleep. I definitely wasn't away for the end.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: But I look back and I feel good about our handicapping.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: Last week. We were right on the Jets, but we
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: chickened out. You were right on the Bucks, but I
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: chickened out. I was right on the Giants, but you
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: chickened out. So this week, no Chickens, No chickens, And.
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: I feel very lucky. I watch all these games in mute,
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: so I didn't hear that Troy ach mcconment, but I
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: would love for Tyke but to go back and watch
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: his own film and uh, just again, one of the
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: luckiest guys ever to be in the Hall of Fame,
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: Trake when one of the most overrated bad quarterbacks ever.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Oh, do not go after Trey Aikman. I got to say.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: When I covered the NFL on a regular basis back
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: in my younger days, I did a lot of Cowboys
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: coverage because when I was at Sports Illustrated in the
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: mid nineties, that's when they were America's team in that generation,
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: and Trey Akman was very available, talked openly that.
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: He was he wasn't watching film or working on his game.
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: Oh my god, again the guy had Mahomes had more
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: touchdown passes in a year and a half at whatever
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: he was twenty six and Akman had his whole career. Again,
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: He's a joke, different game.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites podscast is presented by Bet
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: three sixty five. Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: That's why you get more boosts with them than with
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  Speaker 1: never ordinary at Bet three six five. Must be twenty
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: one and older and present in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana,
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  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, eighteen and older in I'm sorry, eighteen
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: and older in Kentucky. Not twenty one in Kentucky call
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply As a reminder, you
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: can catch every episode of the Favorites live on YouTube,
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: So for those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: us a like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: All right, Week fourteen winners roundup from the contest one
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: hundred and ninety seven entries. Wow finished five and oh.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: We had a tie for first place as two entries
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: went five and oh and nailed the tiebreaker exactly. Congrats
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: to Blake Ott and PG three eight one enjoy the cash.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: This week's Producer's Couple Award goes to Dolph sip Lanks
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: l E Nks for finishing dea fucking last and the
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: Week fourteen contest going on to five missing the tiebreaker
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: by three hundred and fifty nine yards. Dolf, please email
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: producer Matt Mitchell at podcast at Action network dot com
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: claim your prize Week fifteen in the contest now live
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: tiebreaker total passing yards on Monday Night football. Good luck everybody?
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: All right?
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill still leaving the league and receiving yards. We
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: had him at nine to one. That is our big
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: future still ahead. Like I said, we'll see about that
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: ankle injury. Jalen Carter Jalen Carter. We got him at
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: seven to one for defensive Rookie of the Year minus
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: five hundred at be threes is five. He was half
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: the offense for the Eagles on Sunday, return to fumble
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: for a touchdown against the Cowboys. All right, we got
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: a very full board. We got Thursday game, Saturday game,
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Sunday game, Monday games. We got sixteen games. No buys
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: La Chargers at Oakland. Oakland is three point favorite on
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: Thursday night. I don't what to do with this game, man,
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Like you fade the team at the backup QB that's
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: based in last did I say Oakland? I met Las Vegas.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: Fade the team at the backup QB in Las Vegas,
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: faded the team that was just shut out. Play the
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: dead cat, bounce and take the Chargers. Screw the side,
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: take the over, which is what our luck ranking suggest.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: Pretend it doesn't exist. What do we think you?
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll probably go with Vegas for what you just said.
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: It's like, I don't know, they just they're not as
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: bad as they look the previous week. But I didn't
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: bet any unders last week with a prime toes, or
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: maybe I didn't the Thursday. I didn't bet the Sunday
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: Night or either Monday game. I think the Overs went
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: three and one last week and then the week before
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: they went three and oh, so it's over. It was
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: a great run. It is clearly dead. You said it
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: before we went on the show. Luck over. So I'll
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: follow Nick and the boys and I'll take the over here.
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I'm with chat. We'll keep it moving for
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: this one.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Minnesota at Sincy. By the way, teams off getting shut
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: out twenty nine thirteen and three, nearly seventy percent in
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: their next game since twenty fifteen, So yeah, a little
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: bit of an of a lean to the Raiders. Then Minnesota,
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: It's Cincinnati Cincinnati at three and a half point favorite
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: Saturday game Simon, another exciting backup battle of backup QBS
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Jake Browning against who even knows could be Josh Jobs,
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: could be Nick Mullens, justin Jefferson is day to day. Look,
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: this is a real to me, this is an interesting
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: game because the Vikings pass rush is good in the
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: way that it blitzes. The Bengals pass rush is good
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: because they have Trey Hendrickson. The only thing I'm thinking
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: about is like could there be an advantage for Minnesota
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: if Nick Mullens plays in the way that, like, all right,
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: they feel the offense can move town differently, the players
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: get a little bit more enthusiastic. If Justin Jefferson plays,
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: you've got a little bit more of an accurate passer.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: But mostly I don't want to watch this game now.
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: It's sadly I have to because it's my job, but
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: I'll take Cincy here. But I'm with you, like, what
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: the hell are we doing here? It's like almost a
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: possible to make numbers in this game. And yeah, I
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: have no idea how good this Cincinnati team is or
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: what they will be, but they're playing well right now.
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: They're playing better than Minnesota, So I'll back Cincinnati here.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: Jake Browning's seventy nine point three completion percentage is the
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: highest completion percentage by a QB in his first three
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: starts since nineteen fifty. Take that, Troy Aikman. You're saying
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: the NFL stinks, Jake Browning is proving you different.
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: Jake Browning would also have three Super Bowls if you
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: played for the Dallas Cowboys, And.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: That are your hatred for Troy Aikman. This is this Now,
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: I know what you feel like when I'm s slam
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: in Bill Belichick and saying he's the Zach Taylor of
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: the New England Patriots, only winning because he had a
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: good quarterback.
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: Not comparable. Again, they could have just put a trash
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: can out there that had a fake little arm on
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: it to hand the ball off the Emitt Smith and
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: they would have the exact sad results.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: I will not stand for Treyikman hatred. I love Treyikman,
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: I do. I think he's amazing. Pittsburgh at Indianapolis. I
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: wanted to blow through this game like it's the third
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: straight game featuring backup QBS right, third of three games
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: that we've talked about it. Mitch Trubisky against Gardner Minshew.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: Normally this is a smash Mike Tomlin spot Robert and
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin Right. Here's my concern. Is TJ. Watt playing.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: Is Alex Heismith playing? Both were in concussion protocol Over
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: the last two season, Steelers fifteen and six straight up
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: and against the spread with TJ. Watt one in six
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: without him two four and one against the spread. So
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: like I worry without t J. Watt what this team
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: can be.
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that would change how I bet it. Luckily, we
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: can't put this in the contest because it's definitely a
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: game where I would try to force and I know
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: I'd wake up Saturday and he's like, we got to
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: get one of these games in. Let's let's get one
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: of these games in. So Luckily we can't, just because
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: I like Pittsburgh here, you think you just nailed it's
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: a good spot. It's a good Tomlin spot. Two straight
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: losses as favorites at home against two and what with
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: the two and nine to and ten teams, the Arizona
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: and then the Patriots, Like just as low as it
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: can get for this Pittsburgh team, and this is like
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: the classic. You know, They've had extended week here to
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: get right and Tomlin's just been on them this whole time.
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: And this is why he's such a good motivator. Like
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: you think these teams are dead, they're not. They're gonna
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: make it to the playoffs and they're going to beat
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: the Ravens And that's how the season is going to
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: go for this Pittsburgh team. It's just it's already written
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: in stone, like they're they're not gonna make the playoffs
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: if I'm not going to beat the Ravens, and none
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: of it makes sense because it's football. So plus two
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: and a half, I'll take it. Chad's right though, if
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: Wa is out, I'm terrified of this spot. I probably
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: won't have as much money on it, but right now
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: I'm betting it, and I'm betting it kind of heavy.
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: So I am in on Pittsburgh this week, but not
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: gonna make it. Simon says, just because if Whata is out,
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: I could see this gid up to three three and
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: a half if JJ Watt or TJ Watts out.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: But why are you hitting it so hard if there's
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: still a huge question mark about their best player.
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: Because I could see it if he gets cleared and
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: the pros came in on this, I see it going
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: down to like a pick minus one. It feels like
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: kind of like the Bucks Atlanta last week, and I
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: don't want to miss that number where I got lucky.
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: The number came back when into the week and I
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: was able to get to two and a half. I
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: want it on the Bucks, but here, I don't think
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: I'd get as lucky if those guys get cleared and
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: I know where you're coming from. I just I can't
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: see TJ missing this game. It just off extended rest.
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: I can see him being back. I mean, they push
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: guys to concussion protocol in like six days, let alone ten,
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: so I could to see him getting back for this one.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: Denver Detroit. Detroit is now a five point favorite. We
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: talked about this one on Sunday night. It was four.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: We didn't know what to do with it. Then we
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: were leaning Detroit. But the fundamental question we had is
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Detroit broken versus is Denver getting the right teams in
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: the right spots and getting some turnover. Lock happened to
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: again in this past week. Justin Herbert breaks his finger,
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: they get easton stick. They end up winning again. Good
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: for us. We're on the Broncos eight and a half
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: at their season win total, so we're feeling a little
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: bit better about cashing that ticket. But all of a sudden,
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: this number is at five. What's our breaking point here?
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: When do we say, all right, we don't like Detroit anymore?
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: We probably want to bet Denver.
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: I don't know, don't do this one because I know
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: if it gets a six, I feel like that will
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: be my breaking point right, It's like, how do we
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: not take Denver once I get the six six and
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: a half. But yeah, just same thing with some day.
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to do with this one. It's
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: like I have no idea what lines team I'm getting
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: right now, but I do know what I'm getting from Denver,
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: and I think we just talked about it. It's like, yeah,
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: they've been lucky with the turnovers, but I mean they're
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: put in they're so well coached of putting these positions
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: every week, where like their offense can look dead and
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: nothing's working for Russell Wilson and somehow by the second
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: half it is working. They are pulling out these games,
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: and like they just just a very bizarre team. So
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: we have been very lucky here at the end where
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: a lot of my over bets that I thought were dead,
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: I mean, the Colts included, Like, I can't believe the
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: Colts came through once Richardson got hurt. This Broncos team
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: starting one to five might come through. I mean, I
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: know you're like me, you have a bunch of invested
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: in the Bears. We still might hit our Bears over
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: So pretty insane. All these teams we left for dead
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: coming back here, But nothing from me on this one yet. Chat.
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: I hope the number moves because it's kind of been
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: a weird zone at five. I'm hoping either five and
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: a half six. I'll probably coming on Denver.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: Two trends that we should discuss, and then we're going
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: to get into the heart of the schedule and games
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: that we can really focus on for the contest, because
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: this is the last Saturday game and we can't put
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: those in the contest. Good teams who score fewer than
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: fourteen points the following week. The following week the past
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: ten years fifty seven percent against the spread Week fifteen,
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: that is Detroit, Houston, and Philadelphia. The flip side underdogs.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: Teams that are on the road or short rest after
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: a straight up win in their previous game as an
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: underdog the past twenty years, forty three and seventy against
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: the spread. By the way, Denver, Broncos, New York Giants,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: who we're going to talk about. So the stats are
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: telling you right now, Yeah, the stats are telling you
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: play Detroit, which is why the numbers moved up, even
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: though I think wise guys they're a little bit uncomfortable
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: about the Lions, but I think they feel like this
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: is the spot to play them. That's a nice spot, uh,
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: Chicago at Cleveland. So Tuesday night the line was two
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: and a half or not Tuesday night. Sunday night, the
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: line was two and a half. I was concerned it
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: was feeling trappy and the books were begging me to
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: take Cleveland. The line moved to three, then it got
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: to three and a half. It's at three and a
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: half at a lot of places at three and a half.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: Tell me I'm wrong. I kind of like the Bears
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: at three and a half. And this is not a bias, right,
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: This is not me saying I'm in love with Justin Fields.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: This Bear is rushedy and scoring d had been top
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: ten in advanced stats since the Montese sweat deal. The
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: brown strength is their rushing game. The Browns just had
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: a big emotional win, Joe Flacco given speeches, Joe Flacco
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: getting praised. Now we've got the Bears coming in quietly,
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: putting together a solid roster that is growing more confident,
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: and Justin Fields, whose strength as a scrambler could probably
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: counteract the Browns strength defensively is a pass rush.
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know what the pros are seeing here.
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: I understood that two and a half, he can clean
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: the two and a half. I really don't get at three, though.
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: Three and a half so a little scary chat. This
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: one feels very easy. It's like Bears Bears, Bears Bears,
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: Joe Flacco minus three and a half at home against
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: a non injured quarterback or a backup. I mean, we
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: take the Bears here every time, especially you just said
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: the Bears have been playing much better than they weren't
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: earlier in the year, and I think min was half
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: caught up to it, and we saw last week how
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: much that number moved. Yeah, truly interesting. They're jumping off
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: the Bears here, like like you just said, at two
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: and a half, Cleveland makes sense. I agree with that,
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: But at three and a half, which it is right now,
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: I'd grabbed the Bears. You want me to make this,
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: Simon says, you make it.
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: Simon says, Simon says, we do. Say yeah, I'm glad
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: you did that, because I didn't want to make it
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: my executive decision because then it just feels like what
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: am I doing? Man? If I'm just a homer who's
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: betting the bearges every week and.
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: If the weather does impact, which maybe maybe that's something
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: going on there. I honestly feel better once again about
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: this Bears team if it is bad weather, Like, you
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: guys are really good at running and you're really good
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: stopping the run right now, So weird, weird movement on
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: this number. I mean, I might be walking right into it,
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: but give me the three and a half chat Like
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: that's that's way too much respect for Joe Flacco after
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: a win that felt a little gifted to them, right,
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: Like they kind of had some thing kind of bounced
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: their way last week and they got the cover that
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: they probably shouldn't have got. I wasn't for a weird
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: player from Peterson. So yeah, I'll take I'll take the
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: value on this Bears team.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: The amount of conversation in my house right now between
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: me and my younger son about what the Bear should
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: do at quarterback. Oh, it's the best next year is insane.
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: I think have the best off season ever. I'm telling
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: you it's gonna be so.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: Oh my god. Are we trading for Caleb will Are
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: we keeping Caleb Williams? Are we trading that pick? Are
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: we getting the Hall? It was such an intense conversation
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: between me and my kid at dinner, like it was phenomenal.
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: I can't it really does decide the next ten years
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: of your life, brother.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: Does it really does?
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: It does?
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: And it's it's almost embarrassing how much I.
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: Enjoy it is the best part of being a fan.
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: This is why you can say we when you talk
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: about your team. It's like you've been through all the
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: ship and then they get enjoy the fund exciting parts
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: of it.
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, look, fandom is amazing. It's why sports are
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: so good. You just you can't get away from it.
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: It brings joy Atlanta unless you're Matt Mitchell and you
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: root for the Buffalo Bills or producer Tito and you
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: root for the Miami Dolphins. Boy, that was that was
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: something last night. Atlanta. Carolina. Carolina's the side. You know it.
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: I know it. Yeah, hold their nose, let's bet it.
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: Let's move on, yep, keep it moving. Well. I don't
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: want to talk about it, but we're gonna be betting
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: it if it's one of our five. I'm so so sorry,
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: but it's.
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: What everyone should know. We're just we're betting Carolina.
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: It's like the Jets last week. We can't jump off
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: the train. We can't jump off the train and miss
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: it again. So if this is three two and a
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: half comes Sunday, automatic play on Carolina.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: Teams to lose by twenty points or more the previous
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: week facing a team who didn't. So the Carolina Panthers
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: facing the Falcons UH sixty percent against the spread since
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty. This week that includes Indianapolis, Carolina, Washington, Houston,
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: and Philly. We're on Carolina. That's awful, seriously, But you
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: know what I will say this, I feel like because
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: the favorites have been winning at such a weird clip
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: for that six week period, I do think it impacted
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: our thinking and it certainly drained me a little bit.
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: And so the fact that we can now look back
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: on this past week and say, hey, the handicapping we
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: did was pretty solid, I feel better making decisions like
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: this for example. For example, the narrative has been for
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: the Miami Dolphins, who are nine point favorites at home
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: against the Jets. Bet Miami against bad teams at home.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: The last two home games, they struggled to beat the
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: Raiders and lost to the Titans. Now Tyreek is hobbled.
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: We don't know his status yet. The line is barely
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: budged since last night's game. Money is coming in on
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: the Jets. What do you think?
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it stinks because I wanted to take Miami, especially
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: after such a big Jets win. I feel like it
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: would have been a nice spot. But you have to
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: take the Jets now. It's like if Tyreek Hill is
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: banged up or out of this lineup. We just saw
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: what this team is without them, Like the safeties get
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: to drop in, they don't need to have the one
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: guy all the way back and it changes everything. I mean,
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: you know, lucky for them. Most Art is incredible. I
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: think he tied Ricky Williams rushing touchdown record yesterday, which
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: is just crazy to think. Might be sixteen in the season. Yeah,
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: that's it stinks because I loved I wanted to take
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: the Dolphins here. Like the Dolphins, their run scheme would
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: have been amazing against this Jets run defense that's just
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: not that good. I mean, that's their achilles heel for sure. Oh.
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: This amazing staff from Evan Tua that it is his
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: worst loss of his college or pro career. He was
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: thirty four and zero straight up as a favorite of
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: sixer points or more. So. Yeah, if you're gonna bet
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: onto it to bounce back and win, that's fair. But
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: to cover this spread, I don't know, Jet it feels
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: a little big. I see it at nine in a
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: couple books, and I'm seeing a couple eight and a
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: half's out there, So I guess the pros are coming
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: in on the Jets. I'll take the Jets, but I'm
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: not going crazy about it, but I definitely take the Jets,
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: I suppose.
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah. The only things and maybe this is just me
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: overthinking it, right, is the Dolphins had to adjust without
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: Tyreek in the middle of the game, and that impacts
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: your sort of ability to game plan. But also, don't
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: forget it wasn't the Dolphins offense they gave up that
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: game last night, right like it was the it was
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins defense that did it. So with a week
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: of planning, do they have the opportunity and knowing the
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: status of Tyreek, do they have the opportunity to get
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: right and position themselves against an offense that look, despite
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: what Zach Wilson did last week, it's still Zack Wilson
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: to the Jets. So that's what gives me pause.
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And as much as I do want to blame
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: the Dolphins defense, I mean, any Miami fan will tell
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: you to about the ball at end of the game
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: with the ball in his hands and a chance to
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: just get a field goal and you win that game,
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: and he didn't come through. For Dolphins fans, I think
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: that's why some of them are pissed off today, where
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: it's like, sure, you can throw it on the defense, right,
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: they're up fourteen with three minutes to go, but again
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: two had the ball in his hands with like a
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: minute to go and he just couldn't get them down
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: there to kick the three. So, I mean we talked earlier,
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: had you said it, like there's no more glaring sign
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: that Tyreek should have been talked about his MVP and
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: not to after you've seen that game. It's just the
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: team was completely different when he went out. Just it's
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: just incredible how good Tyreek Hill is.
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah. So Tua, who had been one of the league
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: leading odds shortest odds to win MVP all season long,
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: now twenty five to one to win MVP at bet
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: three sixty five. Tyreek is twenty to one. So if
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: you needed any more proof that people are seeing Tyreek
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: Hill as sort of the engine of that Dolphins offense. Remember,
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: before Tyreek Kill joined the Dolphins, Tua was on the
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: road to being considered a bus and they were trying
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: to figure out should they unload the guy. So credit
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: to Tua gets rid of the ball fast and makes
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: accurate passes. But Tyreek Hill takes the top off the
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: defense and that's one of the main reasons why they've
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: been improving. Speaking of the Dolphins, since we have our
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: own Dolphins super fan and producer, Tito Reminder, you can
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube. For those
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. Houston at Tennessee.
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: Oh boy, this is why you gotta be quick. This
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: is why you got to listen to the show on
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: Sunday nights. Because when we went on the air Sunday night,
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: this line Tennessee I think was about plus two plus
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: one and a half moved while we were on the show,
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: largely based on the CJ. Stroud concussion news. This one
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: feels like a past to me because we've betten on
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: Davis Mills has been too much of an adjustment. What
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: do we know about CJ. Stroud all those kinds of things.
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: If I wanted to bet anything, though, I would bet
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: the Texans.
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: Wow, now I'm happy to take this number Tennessee. You know,
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: I get it, it's a short week all that, but you're
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: still getting rabel at home under a field goal against
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: a backup quarterback in Davis Mills and just a banged
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: up Houston team again, no tank Dell Nico Collins is
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: banged up, he might miss this game as well, and
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: their number one tight end is out and that again,
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: the whole engine of that team was c J. Stroud.
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: Now you're bringing in the reason they got CJ. Stroud,
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: the guy that I mean. Is there a bigger hero
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: in Chicago than Davis Mills? Probably not. He's like the
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: biggest heroever. You know why because he won some shitty
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: game last year at the end of the season. I
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: think that was their only their second win or whatever
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: it was of the season. This guy just a bad quarterback.
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: So I would still take this Tennessee numbers like me
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: hating them in this spot after that emotional win, and
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: Chad's right, like that's this numbers move so much. Usually
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: I don't like the bet teams that were dogs and
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: they flipped the favorites. But the movement here is very warranted.
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: Like I don't know, it doesn't even matter if will
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: Levis is a bad game, like this is the type
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: of matchup where David Mills is gonna have a bad
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: game as well. Put them in spots. So totally fair
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: if we don't bet this or pass on it just because,
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: like Chad said, we don't usually bet games that move
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: this much. But man, talk about a bad spot for Houston.
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: They're like, you know this team that was everyone's darling,
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: like and could there could steal this division from Jacksonville.
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: Now a week later, they might have their quarterback, their
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: season might kind of be falling apart here and it
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: might be over, and this game now is pretty important,
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: Like they kind of need to win this game Houston
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: with a backup potentially. So yeah, it's a weird number
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: because they're not It's not as if they're saying CJ
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: is not gonna play right Like if this if CJ
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: was out, I feel like this would be above three.
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: This is kind of like the books heading their bets
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: here hanging this out of two. So yeah, if you're
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: if you're like me and you like Tennessee, I grab
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: it now. If you're like Chad and you want to
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: play the Houston side, there's no problem in waiting, Like
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: this could keep going up even if CJ is back.
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: Maybe this goes down to a pick or minus one.
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: So no issue on this one waiting.
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: Uh yeah, My my big feeling here is and I
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: don't know why I feel like this A it's the
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: flip of the line. Number one, number two. Rabel is
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: a short home favorite. I don't feel as good as
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: Rabele as a dog.
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: It's been good to us this year, though, I think
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: we're evan. I could be wrong. Are we not four
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: to one betting Rabel at home this season? Like we
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: kind of ride this trend where we kind of faded
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: him on the ruin, We took him at home, and
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: we f only got caught because of two blocked punts.
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: That's right, that's right.
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: One. Yeah, So it's like, I totally get where you're
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: coming from. I think it's more of you. We're just
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: drilling our head where it's like we only take Rabel
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: as a dog, but I would I wouldn't mind it
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: here m was a short favorite.
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: H Mills is five twenty and one in his career.
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: Ohly shit, So that's a good number. That's a good
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: number if it's Davis Mills. All right.
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: This other game. I have been wanting to talk about
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: this game since I went to bed last night, when
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: I went to bed with no doubt in my mind
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: that Tommy Cutlets was going to cover for us against
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: the Green Bay Packers New York Giants plus six at
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: the New Orleans Saints. We talked about this game Sunday night.
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: It was at four four and a half in the
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: ninety minutes before we came on the air. Today, this
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: line moved from four and a half to six, and
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: like I was ready to fade Tommy Cutletz, it seemed
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: like the exact spot to do it. Even though I
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: know we hate betting on the Saints and Tommy DeVito
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: is a glorious story. I feel like there should be
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: a Christmas movie in development right now about him and
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: his family and his agent. Maybe his agent should be
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: on the phone to Hallmark right now selling a Christmas
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: movie about Tommy DeVito. But if there was ever a
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: time to bet on it, the coach we hate the
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: most against the quarterback we love the most. It's now
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: and then it's number moved. So now I feel like
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: I'm in Noma's land.
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it stings because it's like now I kind of
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: want to bet the Giants because you know where It's like,
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: who the hell is the Saints and Dennis Allen to
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: be catching this much after such a fluky win the
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: week before. I mean, Carolina not only should they cover,
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: they probably should have won that game, Like they had
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: so many opportunities they couldn't, you know, capitalize on, and
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: they just gifted a couple of touchdowns to the Saints
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: team that it was fluky, Like that's just not who
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: the Saints are. Jimmy Graham had two touchdowns or something shit,
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: like some crazy shit that for the Saints last week.
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: It's just a very bizarre world. Don't know what to
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: deal with it. Like every week, that timing story, like
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: you said, gets better and better. Like they showed a
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: picture of him and his agent before the game. Yeah,
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: and he looks like every sleazy uncle everyone's had from
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: North Jersey, Like just incredible, incredible, like he's a cartoon character.
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: Don't know what to deal with it, Jad like, maybe
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: we keep waiting and let the pros keep betting it,
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: but either way, this won't be one of our five.
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: Like I wanted to be on the Saints, Chad said,
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: it's moved too much now. I want to be on
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: the Giants, but I'm scared to go against the pros
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: and the spot here, So for me, no real opinion
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: on it here Tuesday.
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: I love North Jersey so much. You know how much
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: I love Chicago. Yeah, I one hundred percent feel like
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: I'm a guy from Chicago. And even though I spent
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: twelve years living in Manhattan, we spent six years living
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: in Northern Jersey in a town called Montclair, I would
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: say after Chicago, despite all the time I've spent in
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: New York and now in Connecticut, Jersey by far, I
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: would say I'm from Jersey after Chicago, like that is
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: where I feel the most connected. I love the people,
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: love the state, love Montclair. Love seeing Tommy's agent on
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: the sideline last night. I dressed the way he was.
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: I just feel like I know that guy and I
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: want to hang out with that guy.
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And I tell people at the time, if you
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: missed it, and for some reason, if you're you know,
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: a millennial or just just a blow So I say
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: twenty five twenty six Sopranos still holds up. If you've
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: never seen The Sopranos, go back and watch it. Maybe
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: the first season is a little dated compared to other ones,
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: but it is such a great magnifying glass of North Jersey,
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: the Italian culture, like the way they talk, how they
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: think the women in the culture is very funny, how
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: loving and all of it really is. And that's that's
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: my fair thing about this hit thing with Tommy. It's
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: like it's like a flash of the pant from the
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: past and it's just amazing. This whole run.
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: It's so good. I love it. I love it so much.
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: I wanted to last forever. What's not going to last
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: forever is our ability to fade the Green Bay Packers
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: and Jordan love We Last night was it, and I like,
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: I am regrets full, honest to God. You know what
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: I was regretful about last night the fact that our
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: two producers, Matt Mitchell and Tito, would not let me
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: change my big Balls bet of the Week from Carolina
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: to the New York Giants because Tito had already thrown
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: the graphic up and Matt Mitchell said, Boo, you can't
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: change it. Just because I made a mistake and I
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: was in a pressure situation, I forgot. We saw the
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: Giants coming up. I was so excited about the Panthers.
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: I wanted to be the Giants because we knew it
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: was the right spot to fade the Packers. You have
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: been on the bus all year. There are three and
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: a half point underdogs against the Green Bay Packers. Back
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: in my day, you know, my heyday, this was a
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: good NFC Central matchup. James Wilder in the Bucks going
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: to Green Bay to face Lynn Dickey and the Packers.
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: I know you want to take the bucks here.
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: I do, and that sucks where it's like, you know.
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: I don't mind it. What I don't mind taking the Bucks?
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but it just feels like it's a classic thing
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: where me and you we have to take it. It
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: feels like Carolina last week and come Sunday it would
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: be like fuck, Like we have other games we like
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: more than this. But we're already kind of talking to
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: and we're kind of set here on the Bucks. So
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna make this our bigs balls or give
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: it any name, because I don't know. I want to
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: be able to get out of this position if I
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: need to on Sunday. But yeah, Bucks plus three and
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: a half this summer felt way too big. I'm already
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: seeing a couple sharper books here in Jersey move it
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: down to three. So not surprising. The pros are gonna
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: come in on the Buccaneers. The public they don't respect
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: the Bucks. Well I should they they haven't all season
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: for the most part. They're going to back Green Bay
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: to bounce back here. So I don't know if you
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: have to rush to get to three and a half
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: because I don't see it going away. I feel like
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: the books are gonna need the Bucks come Sunday. But
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: I'd grab a three and a half now just in
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: case it does disappear to the three. So again, it's
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: a game where on Tuesday here like, I really we
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: want this to be one of our five. Don't kill
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: me if I talk to some pros and I get
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: more info and I'm like our a little scared off
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: comes someday.
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't. I feel like we're going to find
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: other games. I right now, we know we love Chicago
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: and we got to run of games coming up that
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: might fill our bucket a little bit, including Kansas City
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: at New England New England plus nine and a half.
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: The right thing to do is take the Patriots. I
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: know you know, and like I know Matt Mitchell when
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: we did the live show, he came up to us
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: during the show and said he would cut off our
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: mics if we told people to take the Patriots. There
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: is a very small part of me, a very small
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: part of me that worries about my homes and read
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: just being so pissed and sick of the idea that
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: their receivers and their offense can't do anything in the
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: second half. They will take out all their frustration by
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: throwing non stop on Sunday. But home dogs seven or
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: more fifty nine thirty seven and one gets the spread
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: since twenty twenty twenty one, ten and one against the
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: spread since the start of last year, mahomes of a
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: favorite of more than seven or more nineteen to two
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: twenty nineteen, twenty two in one. So the spot the teams.
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: It's begging us take the New England Patriots.
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's a long term winner. It's it sucks,
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: it's it's not enjoyable, but it's fun to win money
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: long term, and this is a long term winner. I
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: know people get sick of that and they're just like, well,
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: you got to take a week by a week. We
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: do take a week by a week, but there's certain
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: spots where it's just like, I mean, we both saw
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: this number Sunday night. We knew we're gonna have to
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: take it. Like it's just a number we know we're
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: gonna have to take and a spot we have to take.
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: And it's a really good Belichick defense at home against
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: an offense that deserves a zero respect. They they're not
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: the team that we thought they were coming into this season,
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: and every week we're waiting for them to get right,
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: and it's so hard for them. There's just to be
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: good offensively, like it really is. You need Mahomes to
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: make incredible plays just to be good, like just to
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: be top fifteen, top twenty offense, and that is a struggle.
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: You have a top two, top three quarterback and on
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: top two tight end in football. It's like, it really
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: is crazy what's going on with this team right now?
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: The Chiefs, And yeah, if this was a year or
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: two ago, Samsonnario with these two teams. Chad's right. I
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: would love to back the Chiefs here after that kind
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: of loss. Likes that's such a good spot. But this
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: Chiefs team, no way, like, no way should they be
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: getting this many points. I'm shocked to looking her app
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: right now and see the money and the bets are
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: coming in on the Chiefs. So they hate for the
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: Patriots is real. It's just a weird thing. I mean,
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: they're on extended rest too here in December. It just
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: feels like, yeah, me and Chat don't believe in Zappi
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: or we have no faith in the Patriots offense. But
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: it feels like we're just back in their defense here,
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: like if they're a team that's really been playing well
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: defensively these last couple of weeks, and just against the
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: Chiefs team catching this many points at home, you know,
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: how do we not do it? I mean, another great
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: stat from Evan New England again nine and a half.
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: That's the second biggest home dog in Belichick's career. So
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: it's an opportunity like, that's how we view this stuff.
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: So I don't know if this will make our money
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: line around Robin just because we expect mahomes not to
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: lose three straight games, but man, nine and a half,
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: we can't avoid a chat. We gotta bet it.
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: Simon, you know what to just keep saying to myself,
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: don't be a chicken. Don't be a chicken.
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: Easier said than done. Putting real money on this is hard.
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: No, it is, it really really is. It's also hard.
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: You know. People always ask me like about betting, and
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: I always say, it's as hard to do this publicly
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: and put these out there and be vulnerable on a
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: Sunday with these decisions as it is to bet real
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: money on them, because you don't want to be wrong,
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: And like, we're going out here and we're saying, yeah,
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: makes sense. Bet the Patriots, who are in line for
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: the second overall pick at plus nine and a half
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: against one of the greatest quarterbacks who's ever lived. Totally
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: makes sense. You want to put your money on Bailey Zappy.
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: Yet the funniest thing is people think me and you
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: have an angle where it's like you will never have
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: a podcast more above board, more open and honest and
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: showing what we do week the week, and they'll be like, well,
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: what's the reason you guys post your pic sol late
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: on Sunday morning, like you guys, don't put it out
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: till eleven is if me and Chad aren't working all
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: Sunday morning then doing a live show, and when we
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: get off that live call, we get on a phone
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: call together and make our five picks. And then I
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: literally go right from that call and put it to
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: Twitter and chat puts in the app. It's like nothing
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: the fairis is happening. We're not waiting to get a
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: better number, whatever you think we're doing. It's like we're
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: working all Sunday morning and we get together make our five.
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: So it is tough where it's like, I mean, we
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: debated all morning. It's like which pick is? Then they guess,
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: look less like an idiot if this doesn't work out,
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: And so next year we get rid of that thinking process,
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: like what being idiots is what's got us to that
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: winning circle?
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: So not next year. This week, if it's Carolina, if
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: it's New England, if it's the Bears, the Twitter is yeah,
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: I can tell you right now. I don't think it's
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: going to be the Arizona Cardinals, who are fourteen point
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: hundred dogs at home again San Francisco. I really want,
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: I really wanted this to be one of them, and
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: then Evan sent me some stats like ats dogs, this
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: big in the division, not a good outcome, So I'm
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: less inclined on this number to play the home dog.
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I passed on it, Okay, like I might end up,
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: you know, some type of bed on Cardinals first half,
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: but yeah, I'm right there with you, like it's it's
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: too big of a number where it's like kind of
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: sucking me in where last week, you know, the books
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: got killed, Like I know so many professionals who got
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: heavy on the forty nine ers at ten and a
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: half eleven and then they came back on a fourteen
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: fourteen and a half on the Seahawks and did it
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: end up lanning twelve? It might end up lanning on twelve, yeah,
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: eight sixteen, Yeah, so the books are I'm making that
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: mistake this week. Like I can't see the number moving
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: as much as it did last week with that Seahawks
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: forty nine ers number. So yeah, I just my gut
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: wants me to take the Cardinals, but I just can't
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: get there. Check.
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: We loved talking about Washington and the Rams. Rams are
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: six and a half point favorites right now, We've been
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: Sam Howell fans, and we've leaned command a lot this year.
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: They've burned us hit like crazy. But having a really
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: good offensive year Eric b Enemy has put him in
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: a really good spot the offensive coordinator for the Commanders.
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: Next Bears head coach could be.
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: We were really impressed with them. By the way. Wow,
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: that's a great idea.
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I'm here from Chicago, brothers, so it's swirling
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: in your own stadium right now.
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: Wow. Yeah, Now, I got to get on the phone
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: to my guys at Chicago and see what's going on.
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: You should all right?
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: Uh, I love that idea, Jo, Dude, you just threw me.
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: I fucking love the Bears. We were We've been really
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: impressed with how the Commanders played that first week, got
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: the deadcat bounds against the Patriots beat him in New England.
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: After they traded Montese Sweat and Chase Young, basically gave
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: up on the season and the defense. Since then, I
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: want to give some perspective, right because this happens. You
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: can have bias. You can think, oh, I love this quarterback,
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: he's a game. I like the way this team plays,
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: they have heart. Then you forget after that win against Washington.
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: They lost to buy three to Seattle, twelve to the
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: Giants at home, thirty five to the Cowboys, thirty to
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins at home. The dead cat bounce, That dead
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: cat is splat, Like this rush defense is terrible. The
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: Rams rush offense with Kieren Williams has been amazing, unreal. Yeah,
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: am I wrong to say that I love the Rams here?
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: No? And I've taken the six and a half. It's
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: gonna be the most public play for us this week
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: if you're on it too, like I bet it too.
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: Seen a couple books now up to seven. Still not
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: terrified if I have to take the Rams at seven.
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: The biggest thing to me is if you break down,
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: if you really go into the numbers. The secondary of
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: Washington is horrible on balls that travel over twenty yards,
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: like they are terrible at balls that go downfield. We
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: have pooke on Cooper Cup. So like Chad, you said,
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: only are you able to run the ball now and
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: have zero pass rush? With Washington on your quarterbacks, you
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: can push the ball downfield against a really bad set
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: cover secondary. So I wanted to be there on the
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: Washington just because the Rams, their own defense is fraudulent, right,
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: They have guys the secondary that our first second year
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: players are terrible cover corners, and you expect Sam held
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: Been to move the ball downfield. But at least they
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: still got Aaron Donald, and they got a rookie up
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: front that's playing really well. Like they still have pieces
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: there for the Rams that can get stops. You know,
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: they are, to me a better team. They deserve to
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: be this high of a favorite. So yeah, if you're
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: gonna grab anything, I'd grab it now. At the six
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: and a half, could easily see this being seven, seven
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: and a half by kickoff.
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: It's so funny you say you want to be another commander,
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: because that's the first thing I wrote in our script.
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: I wanted to lean commanders here, and then when I
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: was I was doing the research, it made no sense
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: at all. I'd still take the Rams at seven. Let's
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: say the Rams are at seven at a lot of places,
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: I would still take them at seven. Dallas at Buffalo.
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: We don't need stats, we don't need trends. It's about
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: what we're seeing in front of us right now, my friend,
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: And what we're seeing right now is a team at
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: the top of the market versus a team that's been
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: a little bit deflated. That's just feeling like they got
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: a shot. They got one, tiny, tiny little shot. This
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: is the shot right here, exact decision, Buffalo Bill. Sorry
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: to do it to you, Matt Mitchell. The Bills make
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: me want something. Throw your hands something, throw your hand
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: back now the Bills.
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: I'm making it happen.
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: It is what it is. We're taking the Bills at
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: minus two and a half.
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: Just a classic betting the spot. And not only is
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: it a good spot for the Bills, but it's such
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: a bad spot for Dallas. Dallas is about to go
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: through it. That's why, like I said, as an Eagles fan,
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: I expect them to lose last week the Eagles to Dallas.
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: That was such a bad spot for that Eagles team.
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: They had played multiple really tough teams, competitive teams in
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: a row. It's about to begin that for Dallas here,
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: Like Dallas has a really hard stretch where it's quite
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: the opposite for the Bills. Like me and Chatt talked
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: about today on Green Dot Daily. If you want to
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: be with me and Chatt and you just want to
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: be all in on this Bills team, you can make
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: three bets today that basical will set you up for
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: the next month, and you're you're just gonna be Matt Mitchell.
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: You will be Bill's mafia. You're going to be all in.
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: You know, this could cover your Christmas presence, could cover
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: your going out in New Year's with your special friend
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: or your special lady. How do we not take it here? Dallas,
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: they played them, They played Dallas here, then they have
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: the Chargers New England, and then they finish at Miami
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: and you can get Josh Allen right now twenty to
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: one b MVP fantasy people know, if you go look
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: at fantasy football wise, he's the number ONLD quarterback in
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: all football for fantasy. But if you're looking at just MVP,
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: I think he's top three. Like yes, tons of turnovers.
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: I think he's up to fourteen interceptions, but he's leading
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: the league in touchdowns if you include rushing and passing
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: like he's doing it all. And the reason he has
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: so many turnovers is he's being put in pad positions
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: all season because his defense and his coaching has just
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: been atrocious. So there's just a story there where if
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: this guy gets this team from six and six to
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: eleven and six, give me the MVP, like that's real
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: in a year where there is no real MVP, Like, yeah,
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: Dak is favorite. Right now, I can go through their schedule.
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: They play Buffalo, then Miami, then then they're at home
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: against Detroit. So at Buffalo at Miami, that at home
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: against Detroit. That's a tough sleigh for Dallas, where I
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: just I could see them dropping maybe two games here
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: with Buffalo wins out. It's just all their Chad, So
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: they win all these bets them to win the division
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: win is a plus three to ten. They need to
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: win this game, which is what Chad's talking about. I
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: love them in this spot, so anything under three, give
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: it to me. So I was hoping that the public
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: would be on Dallas right now. It's like you're looking
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: at the app, but it looks like it's the pros
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: and the public are here on the Buffalo. But I
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: could see it's shifting by midweek. I think if this
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: does get the three, the books will get that Cowboys money,
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: which will make me feel better about me and Chad
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: being so heavy here on Buffalo. But yeah, I said
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: it Sunday night. I love this number and I've just
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: been benet like even when it dropped down to one
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: and a half after the Cowboys had the big win,
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: it didn't scare me. It was just like, all right,
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: the public's coming on the Cowboys. Now you see it's
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: up a two and a half. So the pros have
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: come back in on this Buffalo team. So I'm right
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: there with you. Try. I love this bet.
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: To be clear, the three bets that you love that
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: are going to allow us to take out of our
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: special friends over the holidays. Bill's minus two and a
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: half Bills to win the division plus three ten Josh
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: Allen MVP twenty to one.
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: Love it boom.
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell's going to make a promise to everybody. I
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: don't know what it's going to be, but if the
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: Bills went out win the division and Josh Allen wins MVP,
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell's going to promise to do something. I don't
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: know what it is yet.
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: And as my witness, Matt Mitchell's my witness. I said,
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: it literally might have been six weeks ago when everyone
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: had left the Bills for dead, and I said, this
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: is your dream scenario. This is the year you guys
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: won a Super Bowl when everyone's counted you guys out,
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: you were left for dead. He was so sick. I
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: think in his own mind he's just like, please shut
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: the fuck. I can't confirm that, and I was. Yeah,
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: I wasn't ready to hear that message.
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: But here we are, Simon. I want you to concentrate
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: for a second and think very hard on what I'm
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: about to ask to ask you. Are you ready?
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: Can you name the fast growing ticketing app in the
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: United States?
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: Game Time?
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: That's right, it's our sponsor, game Time. I love game
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: Time for two reasons. One they sponsored this show. Number two,
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: I actually used game Time to buy tickets. They've got
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: amazing last minute deals on all sorts of tickets, including
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: pro and college football games. Speaking of which, I'm actually
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: opening game Time right now from my house here in
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: Connecticut and g yes, what I can get into a
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: New York Rangers hockey game for less than one hundred
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: and fifty bucks. And if you haven't gone to a
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: Rangers home game at the Garden, you have not experienced
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: hockey fandom at its finest. It's amazing. No matter where
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: you live, download the game Time app, get out, have
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: some fun this week. Go sweat your bets, live and
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: in person and you can redeem code favorites for twenty
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: dollars off for his purchase terms apply again. Just download
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: the app and innercode favorites for twenty dollars off. Last
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: minute ticket's lowest price guaranteed. All right, we got Baltimore Ravens,
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: consider one of the best teams in the AFC, visiting
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: the Jacksonville Jaguars, who were on a nice little run there.
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: Now they've been losing a little bit. We talked Baltimore
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: on Sunday, you were taking a small taste of the
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: Ravens at minus three. We still don't know what's happening
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: with Trevor Lawrence historically, and we saw this a game
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: last week. Lamar terrible as a favorite of more than three,
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: twelve to nineteen as a favorite five and sixteen against
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: this twelve to nineteen to gets to spread as a
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: favorite five and sixteen against the spread when favored by
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: more than three points. You still like Baltimore at minus
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: three and a half.
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to deal with it. It's I liked
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: it three. I knew it was gonna go up. That's
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: why I bet it. But I also knew the back
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: of mind this is going to be the most public
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: side of any debt this week, Like the public is
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: going to hammer the Ravens ans the Jaguars here, and
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: you know the fact that it's you know, it hasn't moved.
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: I thought it would be like four by now, and
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: every book is sitting at three and a half. Yeah,
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: not ideal. Not ideal with it being the Sunday night game,
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: because you know, we talk all the time like that's
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: that's the money maker for the books, Like they want
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: the public to be heavy on one side and they
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: take a position on the other side. Like last week
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: was a dream scenario for them in the sense that
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: you know, we talked about we thought it was going
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: a lot of public money on the Cowboys and ended
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: up being a ton of money. Late came on the
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: Eagles at plus three and a half and it worked
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: out for him. The same thing here where it's like
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: they're making you make a choice. There's no push here,
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: there's not gonna be a three. They're gonna make something
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: happen here, and I don't I want to say I'm
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: not scared off by taking the Ravens, like I still
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: like them, because I could still them being one of
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: our picks, but the fact we already have the Bills
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: in as our favorite. You know, I'm I'd rather have
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: the Bills in at a better number than I with
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: the Ravens. But yeah, I don't don't hate the Ravens still.
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: It's just it's such a public side and I don't
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: really get the movement. Like I'm almost positive Lawrence will
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: be playing just because it hasn't moved that much. It
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: kind of feels like the books are saying he is
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: going to play.
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: So yeah, look, he played last week. He played last
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: week and came out of the game. I did some research,
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: said he wasn't injured, felt fine, like he played last week.
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: He played this week.
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, well again the furi is he had he had
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: two plays where he got tackled and they did the
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: role on him where they wrapped his ankle and they
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: rolled it like they put their chest weight into it,
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: and he is the adrenaline. So it's like, Okay, he
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: might be fine to finish that game. But then you
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: know a couple of hours later, when the adrenaline's gone
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: and the swelling starts coming up, what's really going on there?
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: But yeah, clearly he is crazy tough Trevor Lawrence playing
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: on that injury. But yeah, I want to take Baltimore,
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: but Chad's right like this is usually is not a
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: good spot to take Lamar. So don't know if this
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: will be one of our five. But I am on
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: Baltimore right now.
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: Last game on the board, the last of the sixteen games,
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia at Seattle. Was it three and a half. Now
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: it's for Monday Night Football. All of a sudden, the
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles find themselves in a must win situation. They
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: are the number one wild card team. They went out,
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: they'll still win the division and look they can. They
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: can do themselves as service this weekend if they win
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: and the Cowboys lose against the Bills, which is what
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: we're predicting. I don't really have a ton of thoughts
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: on this game right now. I think that I do
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: think that the Eagles defense is in trouble. I don't
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: I don't think like they're just struggling. They seem bad.
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, they just played Dallas, had a bye week,
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: then the Chiefs, then Buffalo, than the forty nine ers
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: and then Dallas. I mean, I get the questions about
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: their defense. It's just what are you gonna do. There's
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: like seven good teams in football. They played three of
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: them or four of them in the last five weeks.
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: It's just that's life. We have a first place schedule,
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: so yeah, on paper, compared to their last couple of games,
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: this should be a cake walk. Like they're much better
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: than the Seahawks, and you have a banged up Geno
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: Smith or Drew Locke playing. But Jad just said it.
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: This number was five, it went down to three and
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: a half and a lot of books now it's up
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: to four. So I think even the professionals are like
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: a little weary of back in this Eagles team on
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: the road here. But I think it's priced right, like
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: I have it a four and a half, So I'm
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: showing a little bit of value on the Eagles, but
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: not enough to make me be like, oh, you gotta
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: take it here. And it's not even that good of
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: a spot. I mean, back to back road games not ideal.
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: But at least they get a little bit of extended rest.
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: They get that extra day, which is nice for them.
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: And this is kind of it right, Like they play
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: this game. They have giants, Arizona giants, Like I think
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: the Eagles know that this really is the decider if
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: they win their division in the one seed, like they
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: have to win this one, the forty nine ers still
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: have to play the Ravens, which is what you know.
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: They could trip up the forty nine ers and make
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: it so they don't get the one seed. But bad, bad, bad,
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: bad spot for Seattle. With a sense of the Eagles
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: team veteran team, they're going to be pissed off. I
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: mean they're going to be shitt on like you wouldn't
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: believe it all week. That was an embarrassing loss. Right
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: three turnovers by they had to turner by Herts, turnover
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: by AJ Brown, a turn over by Dante Smith. That's
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: not very characteristic that Eagles team. So they're not as
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: bad as they looked this year. Is the public knows
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: that they're They're right right behind the Ravens as the
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: most publicly bet team right now this week. So another one.
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: I don't know if it's gonna make me and Chat's five,
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: but I do show value right now in this Eagles
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: team of four.
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: Look right now, if you ask me what the five were,
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: I'd say Bears, Bills, Carolina, New England, and then I
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: think it would come down to the Rams and the Bucks.
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: Yep, and maybe Titans. Maybe I'll get you on the Titans.
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: I'm supper like, this is what scares me. We've been
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: doing this long enough for me to know when you like,
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: you mentioned a team, but it's not like it's not forceful.
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: But then you keep coming back to it, and now
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: the fact you're mentioning the Titans again.
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: Just keep your eye on it, okay, But it's like, do.
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: You know something right now?
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: Or I do, but I need more info on it.
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I know that I really respected group are
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: heavy on the Titans. At this point. It's all about
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: they got info I don't, And they might know CJ's
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: not playing. Where I wish I could come and be like, yo,
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: I got he's not playing. I don't and I'm working
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: on it. But nine in the morning here in Hawaii,
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: I just I just don't have an info in it yet.
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: All right, So here are the rumors we're tracking down.
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: We're both going to work the phone lines to find
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: out when Eric Bienemy is going to be named as
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: the coach at the Chicago Bears. We're working the phone
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: lines to see when CJ. Shroud is going to be
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: planned as a reminder, The Favorites podcast is presented by
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