Latest / Toadstool Sports / Sunday BEST BETS | Ban the Europe Games | NHL & MLB NLCS & NFL | 10/11/26

Transcript

Sunday BEST BETS | Ban the Europe Games | NHL & MLB NLCS & NFL | 10/11/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: your head Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: made you this mad But don't you go quiet, don't
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor Your name still means something
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: Now Hold on, hold on.
• 0:54
  Speaker 4: Not tonight, not now.
• 0:58
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on Let me pull you out That
• 1:07
  Speaker 3: fell apart by its heart But it don't get the
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: crown Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: What's up everybody, it's Toad back with you with Toadstool
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: Sports for Sunday, October 11th. Already did the NFL show,
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: I have three NFL plays which I'll reiterate at the
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: end of this show and Do the final market read
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: again or whatever, like I usually do. But this show
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: is just going to be the hockey and the Major
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: League Baseball for today. And I'm not adding any additional
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: plays here, although I do have opinions in a couple
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: of the games that almost made the cut for me, actually.
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: So I'm going to talk about those with three and
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: one on the show yesterday. I started out with the
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: loss of Texas A & M. I don't know what
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: to tell you about that A & M offense, man.
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: Marcel Reed, maybe he's just not good. I don't know
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: what else to tell you about that, but all the
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: other plays were wins yesterday. Oklahoma with an outright win
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: in the Red River shootout against Texas, although Texas outplayed
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: them statistically, but Oklahoma was hanging in the game. Their
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: defense helped them out. I think it was a wire-to-wire cover,
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: I believe, and they wound up actually winning the game
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: outright after they were down seven, I think, one or
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: two different times in the game but low scoring like
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: I thought and although I think it went over the
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: total but yeah we got the outright win with that
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: one Maryland was able to hang within the number against
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: what was it it was Ohio State right I think
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: so yeah Maryland did not get blown out in that
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: game so they were able to cover the spread there
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: it's one of those ugly ones but You just want
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: the win, man. You just want the win. And then
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: an easy under in the White Sox-Indians game last night
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: as well. That was a 0-0 game, I think, into
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: the fifth inning. And Cleveland put up two runs, and
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: then that was it. No more scoring in the rest
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: of the game. Some good bullpen pitching in the game.
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: Both starters pitched pretty well, as far as I could tell.
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: I didn't see the beginning of the game. I watched, like,
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: the last half of it pretty much. Cleveland, they went
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: to their closer early. I don't really know why. Like,
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: Gaddis is usually their setup guy, and he was in there,
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: and he gave up, like, a bloop single with one out,
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: I think, in the, yeah, in the eighth inning. He
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: got the first guy out, and then he gave up
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: a really cheap single. It wasn't even his fault. It
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: was just a bloop that was right in the right
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: place where nobody could catch it in the shallow outfield,
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: and they took him out. Okay, and they asked their closer, Smith,
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: to get five outs. I wouldn't have done that. I
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: don't know. But Smith was able to do that. He
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: came in and finished the job. And I think they
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: only got one base runner off of him. But yeah.
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: Anyway, let's just get into today's slate here, man. We'll
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: have the NFL Europe game coming up. I don't think
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: I have it on. I think I have ESPN on
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: behind me right now. So that's not where that game
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: is going to be, which is NFL Network. My opinion
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: in that game is to take the points with the Eagles,
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: by the way, even though I know they're injured. But
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: I just think the line is just I think it's
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: just too high on Jacksonville. I think it's gone a
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: little bit too far. So my opinion was to take
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: the points of the Eagles in that game, but I
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: don't feel that strongly about it. Eagles without Saquon Barkley
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: and Devontae Smith in that game. So we will see
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: what happens in that game. Their defense might be able
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: to hold them in that game, though. But that was
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: my opinion in that game. If people want that pick
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: early on, but definitely not a play or anything. All right,
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: we have three hockey games here. Seattle is at Washington.
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: Washington a huge favorite in this game. We have three
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: pretty big favorites actually on the board here, which is
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: kind of the reason I'm skipping this, even though I
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: have more of an opinion in the other two games
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: besides this one. Washington coming off a win over the
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: Rangers the other day. For them, they might have a
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: look ahead here because they got Carolina on deck and
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: then Montreal. I mean, two playoff teams last year to
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: put it mildly, but there were the two conference championship
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: teams last year. Carolina won the whole thing last year.
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: So definitely could be a look ahead for Washington here.
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: They could potentially overlook Seattle in this spot here. I
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: believe neither team played yesterday, so you don't have to
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: worry about back-to-backs in this one. Seattle, they played all
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: right so far. I mean, they're 3-2. They did not
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: do well against either opponent where they had to step
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: up against Edmonton and Vegas. So they did not play
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: well against the better teams that they had to face
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: so far. Their wins are against Calgary twice. And then Detroit,
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: which is not really that impressive. Washington will be a
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: step up in class for Seattle. Seattle did win against Detroit,
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: like I said the other day. Pretty easy win for them.
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to do with this game. Washington
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: is public. 87% of tickets, 95% of the cash on them.
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: They're like a minus 215 basically favorite here. Very hefty
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: price on Washington here. Yeah, I mean, again, I think
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: it could be a look ahead for Washington. So I
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: think maybe Seattle is the lean because you can get
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: a plus one and a half puck line on that probably.
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: Maybe that's the way to play that. That would be
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: at like a decent price, I mean. So yeah, that's
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: all I got in that game really. My leans were
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: correct yesterday, even though I skipped the hockey board. I
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: was wrong about San Jose, but I was right about Minnesota.
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: I was right about the over in Toronto and Colorado.
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: That game was over before the end of the second period.
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: So nothing misleading about that really. kind of mad about that,
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: and I think whichever game I had to lean on
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: the under, and I think was correct as well, so yeah,
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: I'm a little bit angry that I was, you know,
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: maybe it was too selective there, but whatever. I mean,
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: if you're seeing things well, you're going to have a
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: lot of things that you're right about that won't actually
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: make your card, so it's just the way that it is.
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: Vancouver at the Rangers is the next game. The Rangers
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: lost Shesterk and their stud goalie for the season. I
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: don't know if people saw that, but From what I
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: could tell, it looked like he got his leg in
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: that Washington game. It looked like he got his leg
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: kind of stuck on the side of the goal, and
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: it bent the wrong way. It didn't really look good.
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: Didn't know how bad it was going to be, really,
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: although it didn't look good. But I guess he's out
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: for the season. I don't know exactly what the injury is,
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: but that's obviously bad. So the Rangers are going to
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: have a huge downgrade today. in their goalie department. Now
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: the question is, is there like an injured player theory
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: type of thing here? Like with that having happened, are
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: they going to step up their game a little bit?
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: Is their backup goalie going to come in and, you know,
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: step it up? Are they going to rally around him?
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: I have no idea, dude. I don't usually, yeah, I
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: don't know if the injured player theory works as much
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: with goaltenders. I tend to not really deal with it
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: in hockey as much. It'll be Garand. He's their backup goalie.
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: He's been okay. He came in and he played, I
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: think he played like the majority of that game against
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: Washington last time out. I believe, actually, unless, wait, did
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: Shostakovich go down in the Islanders game? Wait, let me see. Oh, no, yeah, yeah,
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: you know, right. He went down in the Washington game, yeah, yeah,
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: for sure. So, yeah, Garand finished that game. The only
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: game that Garand started, he actually had a shutout, so
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: he might not be that bad. It was a shutout
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: of Detroit, though. They're not that good, but Vancouver... is
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: really bad as well. Now the Rangers, though, they lost
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: a four-game win streak with that loss at Washington, and
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: Washington's a pretty strong team. It was a close game, too.
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: Washington had an empty net goal at the end, so
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: that was a two-to-one game really close to the end.
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: So a big game for the Rangers like that, coming
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: off a big game, big performance. You know, possibly not
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: in the greatest mental state after they lost Shusterk and
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: they lost a four-game win streak. All of those things
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: could potentially give you a hangover effect here. And they
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: do have Tampa Bay next, which is a bigger game
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: as well. Eastern Conference game against one of the stronger
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: teams in the conference. So this is a sandwich spot here.
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: I think I would have to leave Vancouver in this one.
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: Vancouver's on a back-to-back, though. The Rangers were off yesterday.
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: Vancouver played yesterday. They lost. Again, what else is new?
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: They lost to the Devils. They're on a third game
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: in four days, all in different cities, so I don't
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: really have any interest in trying to play Vancouver here either,
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: but I think that is the way I would lean
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: if I was going to play this game. You're getting
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: them at a huge underdog price, and part of it
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: is because the back-to-back, the Rangers are going to be
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: a heavier favorite because of the back-to-back. Rangers still getting
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: a lot of respect in the market right now, minus
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: 265 or so, but remember, this is a Rangers team
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: that was supposed to be one of the worst teams
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: in the conference to start the season, and Now, you know,
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: they have a pretty good record to start the season.
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: And even with their goaltender out now, they're this heavy
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: of a favorite against anybody I don't know seems to
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: be kind of pushing it I know Vancouver is one
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: of the worst teams in the league but it seems
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: pushing it a little bit 75% of the tickets are
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: on the Rangers 62% of the cash on Vancouver I
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: would lean towards Vancouver I would take them on the
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: puck line if I was going to play this game
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: He might even be able to get a plus-two puck
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: line on that at a decent price and only need
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: them to come within two, and it's a pretty low
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: total in that game, too, at five and a half, basically.
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: Fewer goals make it easier for the underdog to potentially
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: cover that, so that's what I think about that. I
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: think the strongest opinion would be in the NHL Network
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: night game here with Carolina at Philadelphia. Both of these
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: teams played yesterday, but Carolina won. easily, although it was
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: against a bad team. It was against Chicago. They went
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: into Chicago, easily won that game. But now they're playing
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: a third game in four days and a fourth game
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: in six days, all in different cities, which is not
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: easy to do. They're playing a winless Philadelphia team that
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: they already beat here in Philly earlier this year, although
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: it was an overtime game. So Philly actually played pretty
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: well in that game, uh, Carolina won in overtime back
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: on October 3rd there, but they still might look past Philly, man,
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: already having beaten them once here. Carolina also swept Philadelphia
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: out of the playoffs last year, if you remember correctly,
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: so this is still... a playoff revenge spot for Philly.
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: They have not been able to get a win against
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: Carolina since then, although maybe there's a matchup problem there, right?
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: If Carolinas won five straight games against Philadelphia, possibly more.
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: I don't know if they won the last games against
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: them in the regular season. They might have. So maybe
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: there's a matchup issue here, but it is a revenge
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: spot for Philadelphia for sure, not just for the earlier
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: game this season, but more so because they still haven't
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: gotten their playoff revenge, and that's really the big thing.
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: Carolina also might look ahead because they have Washington on Tuesday,
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: and that's a big game. Washington's playing well. They're one
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: of the better teams in the conference, even though they
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: didn't do much last year. So don't love the spot
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: for Carolina. Philadelphia got destroyed in Boston yesterday. So we
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: have two teams on back-to-backs. One looked good yesterday, and
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: one looked awful. So normally I'm going to want to
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: take the awful team, and that is the way that
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: I lean in this game. I'd be leaning to Philly.
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: In this game, however, what I will say is the
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: games yesterday weren't that misleading. Philadelphia got annihilated by the Bruins. Statistically,
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: the Bruins completely dominated that game. The Bruins had a
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: huge shot edge the whole time. It was a disaster
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: for Philly. That was a legitimate win for the Bruins yesterday.
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: Even the 5-1 score, the Bruins had multiple opportunities where
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: they could have even scored more. Although a couple of
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: their goals were a little bit lucky, and Vladar really
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: fucked up on one of them, the goalie for Philly
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: in the game yesterday. But the Bruins had multiple breakaways.
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: They had a breakaway and a two-on-one that didn't result
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: in goals, so they had other chances. A lot of
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: mistakes for Philadelphia in that game. And Carolina's win was
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: not really misleading either, by the way. They outplayed Chicago
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: in that game statistically. Carolina had Busse in net in
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: that one. Carolina will go with Kochetkov in net this time,
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: and that would worry me a little bit about the
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia side as well, because I think Kochetkov actually might
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: be the better goalie right now. Busse has not really
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: been that good. Kochetkov has been the better goalie this
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: year so far, and he's playing for Carolina today, so
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: I don't think that's a downgrade. However, I think Philly's
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: goalie in this game is... going to be their better one.
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: It won't be Vladar today because he played yesterday. Vladar
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: has by far been their worst goalie, man. I mean,
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: look at the games. The games that Vladar has played in,
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: they lost 7-0, 4-1, and 5-1. But the games that
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: Wall has played, and he's going to be playing today
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: because it's a back-to-back, they lost 3-2 in overtime twice
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: and 2-1. And one of those was that Carolina game,
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: by the way, that I already mentioned. So Wall... He's
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: been a wall to some degree. He's obviously been way
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: better than Vladar this year. His results, all of Philadelphia's
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: close games have had wall in net, and all the
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: games that have been blown out have been Vladar in net.
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: So there's a pretty big goalie disparity right now with
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: these two goalies. Wall is definitely the better of the two,
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: and he'll be in net here. So that is a
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: good thing for Philadelphia here. I'm not going to do it,
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: but overall, yes, I like Philadelphia in this one. I
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: think that might be the strongest of these plays. You'll
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: get them as a big dog. Carolina's minus 180 here.
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: They're public. 89% of the tickets, 94% of the cash
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: on them. Also, it's a 5.5 total, so it's a
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: pretty low total here as well. Makes more sense to
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: take the underdog when it's a low total, although I
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: know the totals don't range very significantly in hockey. Carolina,
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: I mean Philadelphia, you can get them at a plus
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: one puck line price probably at probably about the minus
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: 110 price range there on the plus one puck line
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: or make your own plus one puck line. That's what
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: I would do. So I like Philadelphia the best out
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: of these three. Then I would say Vancouver on the
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: huge puck line and then Seattle, Washington. That game, yeah,
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: I don't have that much. great of an opinion on
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: that one, even though my lean was slightly towards Seattle.
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: So I like all the underdogs in hockey today. And
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: then we do a baseball. The NLCS begins. Dodgers and Brewers,
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: top two teams in the National League going at it.
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: The Brewers have home advantage here. That might mean something,
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: because the Brewers have been good at home. Really, really
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: good home record. Dodgers, pretty good road record as well,
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: but the Brewers, really, really elite home record for the
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: Brewers here. This game, though, I mean.
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: Based on the starting pitching matchup here, the fact that
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: these teams have had multiple days off, you know what
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: I always say. Milwaukee's bullpen is really good. The Dodgers'
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: bullpen is not too bad either. So you have rested
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: bullpens that are good. You have offenses that might be
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: a little bit off because they've been off for a
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: bit too long. So the offensive timing might be off.
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: You have two elite starters here. The only way that
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: I could see playing this game is to play the under,
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: but it's a really, really low total where I don't
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: really want to do it. I know I gave an
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: under 6.5 out the other day, and I considered it
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: with this game. I did. I was considering the under here.
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: I still think that's what I would do if I
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: was going to play this game, and this could really,
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: really be a low-scoring game, but the oddsmakers know that.
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: So you're seeing a 6 and even 5.5 at some
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: places for the total in this game, which is crazy.
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: It's going to be Tarek Skubal for the Dodgers in
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: this one. I mean, we know he's still an elite pitcher, 2.72 ERA,.
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: 96 whip on the season. That's combined between Detroit and
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers. He pitched well with the Dodgers, too. Didn't
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: get a lot of run support, but if you're playing
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: the under, that's what you want, a guy that pitches
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: well and doesn't get run support, and that was him
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: with the Dodgers this year. Skubal also really, really good
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: on the road this year. He was better on the road, 1.7
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: road ERA. He pitched once in the playoffs, did well
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: in the series against the Braves. Six inning, one run
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: performance there. So he looks like he's in good form
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: right now. And against the Brewers, he's also been good.
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: A 91 career at bats. That's a big sample here.
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: 209 batting average, 506 OPS allowed him 33 to four
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratios. He's been really good against the Brewers.
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: Even though Brewer's offense is good, they're more of a
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: contact offense, like a small ball offense. The Dodgers are
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: obviously more of a power offense. Their offense is obviously elite.
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: So we do have two good offenses here. I think
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: the offenses being so good might also detract, and the
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: total being so low might also detract. The public really
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: wanted to play an under in this game, but I
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: do think that is the way to go. I think
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: elite pitching could definitely defeat elite hitting. Jacob Mizurowski is
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: getting the start for Milwaukee. He's going to win the
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: Cy Young, I assume. He had a 1.8 ERA on
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: the season,. 8 whip. I mean, yeah, this guy's a freak.
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: He'll be throwing 105 miles an hour, multiple innings into
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: the game pretty much. He was really good at home
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: this year, 1.52 home ERA, so he was better at home.
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: He pitched not a lot in the game against San Diego.
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: He actually wasn't that good in that game against San
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: Diego in the previous series. Gave up a couple runs
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: in four innings, but he had six strikeouts, so his
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: strikeout stuff was still working. Only one walk, so I'm
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: not that concerned by that, even though he threw a
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: lot of pitches. He was kind of inefficient in that game, but,
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: you know, maybe he had to get his– Legs under
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: him he had to get the nerves out of the
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: way because he's still a young guy and pitching you
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: know at a big stage like this and this isn't
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: even bigger stage so I guess there is the possibility
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: that maybe he you know maybe that lack of experience
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: will be a little bit of a negative for him here.
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: But he does have really good numbers against L.A. They
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: have 58 at-bats against him. It's a decent-sized sample. The
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate here is insane. 23 strikeouts, 4 walks. So
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: that's a really, really good ratio there and a high
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate. 155 batting average allowed and 468 OPS allowed.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: Mizurowski pretty much dominates the Dodgers lineup. So I don't
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: really want to fade him here. But again, if you're
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: going to weigh experience here, obviously Skubal is the more
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: experienced pitcher here. and used to playing in games like this.
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: But the money is slightly back in Milwaukee here. It's
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: 50-50 on the tickets and 55% of the cash on Milwaukee,
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: so do with that info what you want. Milwaukee getting
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: a little bit of the money there, and it's a
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: pick-em price, basically. It's right around minus 110. Milwaukee about
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: minus 112 here. Pretty much picked the winner, but like
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: I said, The under, I think, is really the only
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: way that makes sense to play this game, but you're
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: going to be playing under six pretty much in this game,
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: and it's a little bit juiced, I think, too. 60%
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: of tickets on the over 69% of the cash on
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: the over but the money has driven the line down
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: a little bit it opened at six slightly juiced to
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: the over and now it's six juiced to the under
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: pretty much so yeah that's what you got going on
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: here yeah I would play the under if I was
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: going to play this and I was definitely considering it
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: like I'd have a pretty strong opinion towards the under
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: in that game. I just don't quite think I want
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: to do it, even though six and a half, six is,
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: I'm like, I'm going to have a seizure over here.
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: I don't know what team that was. That was the
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: Cleveland Indians, I assume, celebrating their win yesterday. Yeah, they
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: had strobe lights going on. Somebody's going to have a
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: seizure in that clubhouse, man. I don't know. But yeah,
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: that'll do it for the breakdown for today. WNBA is
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: off for a while, so we have no WNBA yet.
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: No NBA regular season yet, although my Boston Celtics destroyed
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: the 76ers in the preseason game yesterday. So, you know,
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: can't really take much from that. But there were starters
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: playing in that game for a bit. So there you go.
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: My NFL card today, we have the Jets minus two,
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh minus two and a half, and Baltimore plus three
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: and a half. You can go watch my NFL show
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: and see what my analysis was on all the games,
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: including the game that's about to start. in London, which
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: is stupid. Whoops, I shouldn't have taken this down because
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: I always do the final market read just to figure
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: out what, you know, what's going on with the market
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: and if I want to switch any of my picks
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: or whatever because I do have to pick every game
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: in the pick-em pools and I've been doing really well
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: with that. The money looks like it's kind of on
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: Jacksonville here, but I just don't see it, man. I mean,
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: the line is just, so out of control it's just
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: I think it's just way too high as an overreaction
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: to the Eagles injury situation um so and the Eagles
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: just have not looked good even though I know their
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: offenses look has actually legitimately been bad but I think
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: Jacksonville's a little bit too overhyped so I think still
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: taking the Eagles plus the point seems like the way
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: to play that game uh the money is coming in
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: on Pittsburgh and agreeing with my plan Pittsburgh so that's
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: good if you want Pittsburgh The line's around 3 now.
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: I would not lay more than 3 on that, but
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: hopefully you can still find a 2.5, pay a little
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: bit of juice for it. It looks like FD will
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: allow you to do that right now. The money is
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: indicating towards New Orleans, which I agreed with. Minnesota, they're
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: a fake 4-0, dude. I don't know what else to
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: tell you. These teams' resumes, New Orleans has the way
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: better resume. It looks way too easy to play Minnesota
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: at a pick-the-winner price. So I like New Orleans. The
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: Jets being one of my plays, that's an anti-public play
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: as well. The public actually on the Cleveland Browns. Yeah, okay,
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: the Browns, they're fake. I mean, still not a good team.
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: So I know the Jets aren't good either, but it's
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: also a horrible spot for Cleveland. You can go see
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: my analysis on that. It is a sandwich spot. The
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: market is agreeing with me on that one. The market
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: is agreeing with Miami. Cincinnati is public here. I talked
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: about that one. I agree with that as well with
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: Miami and that one plus the points. I know it
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: looks ugly, but sometimes that's what you got to do. Cincinnati,
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: you kind of got to figure out what their wide
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: receiver injury situation is. Chase missed the last game. Higgins
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: has been out as well. Higgins, I think, got knocked
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: out of the last game. I got to make sure
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: Higgins is playing, though, because he is on my fantasy team.
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: So I have to pay attention to that. The market
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: is slightly indicating on New England. I agree with that
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: one as well. two teams in bad spots between them
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: and the Raiders, but I think the Raiders spot is
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: slightly worse. We have the Giants being public, although it
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: looks like the money kind of coming in on them
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: as well, but I lean to Washington in this game,
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: and I think I'm going to stick with that, even
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: though it is a reverse injured player theory spot for Washington,
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: and they're coming back from London, and usually I don't
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: like either of those spots, but you're not really having
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: to lay that much of a price with Washington there,
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: and this is a Giants team that's beat up, man.
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is No Jackson Dart, no Burns on defense.
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I know Washington's defense is awful, though,
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: and I'm not going to actually have a play on
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: that game or anything, but I don't know. I think
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: the price is not actually too expensive on Washington, even
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: with Jaden Daniels coming back. I think, again, it's because
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: the team's records so far this season are a little
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: bit misleading. The market read is saying to take Tennessee
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: plus the points against Houston in the battle of own fours.
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: Houston's definitely the better team, and the odds are telling
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: you that, but a low, low total in that game.
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: I don't think you can lay seven on the road
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: with that Houston team, man. Other offense is not good enough,
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: so there's that. The market is agreeing with the Chargers
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: plus the points, which I do also agree with. When
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: I looked at it last night, Denver, the situation really
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: doesn't look that great for Denver, especially with a quick
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: turnaround to playing Seattle next on Thursday. They actually might
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: look past the Chargers in that one. The market read
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: is definitely indicating strongly on Seattle, but I kind of
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: disagree with that one. You know, I don't know if
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: I'm going to change my pick on that game when
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: we get into, you Market is definitely indicating on Seattle,
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: but based on the situation, whatever, I had a little
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: bit of a disagreement on that. Slight lean for me
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: to San Francisco still, I would say. But one thing
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: that I will say that is a negative for San Francisco,
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: I didn't bring up yesterday because I forgot, is that
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: their one road game so far that they won against
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: the Rams was in Australia, so it wasn't really a
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: true road game. So this is actually their first true
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: road game. But I would counter that by saying, but
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: they play in Seattle every year, so... It's not like
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: an unfamiliar situation in that unfamiliar spot. It's still a
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: huge revenge game for San Francisco for last year. So
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: Detroit at Arizona, the market read is saying to take
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: the points with Arizona. That's a hard game to figure out,
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: to be honest. I guess I would just go with
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: what the market is saying in that one since I
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: don't really have a good opinion on the situation in
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: that game. The market seems like the money's coming in
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: on Chicago, but I disagree with that one. And the
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: line did drop towards Green Bay there. I would prefer
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: the Green Bay side there. It's also a playoff revenge
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: spot there. And home divisional underdog, technically, in that game.
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: Chicago has not been a favorite in Green Bay for
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: a long, long time. I believe it's not going to
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: be Caleb Williams, even though he's questionable, and I think
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: he practiced a little bit. I think it will be
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: Bajent again for Chicago, although I actually think he's better
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: than Williams. But his second game, maybe there's a little
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: bit of a setback for Chicago in this one. nobody
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: really seems to want Green Bay right now. The market
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: is agreeing with my play on Baltimore in the Sunday
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: night game. I just think that line's out of control
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: because of the recency bias. Atlanta's looked really, really good
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: in two straight primetime games. Baltimore injured player theory without
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson, but I don't think you downgrade them that
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: much with the drop-off to Tyler Huntley. I don't think
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: it's that significant. He knows the system. He's been there
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: for many, many years pretty much, and he knows it.
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: He played last year. bit too so you know he's
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: completely used to this uh you know baltimore's gonna have
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: to slow down that atlanta rushing attack though baltimore's gonna
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: have to force pennex to have to shoulder the load
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: in that game you know what i mean take the
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: rushing attack away and then you might be able to
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: beat atlanta and their inexperienced quarterback situation we only need
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: them to cover and then the monday night game there's
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: a strong market rate on the rams i did not
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: disagree with that one um That's a tough game to
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: figure out situationally, but I think my slight lean would
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: be on the Rams in that one. And that's it.
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: Done with the show before, I think the first game's
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: at 9.30 Eastern, so done before the London game. So
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: if people want to watch that, they can. Short show today.
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: You got my plays. Jets, Pittsburgh, Baltimore. It's Jets minus two,
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh minus two and a half, Baltimore plus three and
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: a half. Learn to tote on Twitter. Learn to tote
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: on Instagram. Like, subscribe to the channel here. You get
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: notified when I go live. Uh, we're on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: So check that out over there. Covered in Uke is
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: my Uke channel on YouTube. Ukulele covers. Check that out. Patreon.com
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: slash learn to toad. If you want to support me
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: that way, uh, need some support, baby. Um, you know,
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: or just, if you want to, I mean, you get
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: some extra Uke stuff there, but if you want to just, uh,
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: support me, you know, for giving you wins and win,
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: you know, uh, if Win money with me and give
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: some of it back, is what I say. So, forgiving you,
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: the winners on the show. You know, we're on a
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: nice run here. So, as you can see, it's been
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: a good run over the past few days, too. So,
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: I don't know what the recent run is. What, like
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: six and one, maybe, or something like that? So, that's
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: been good over the last four days. I'll take it.
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: And then, loser cast every Tuesday night, and that is it.
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: Peace.
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: Happy Sunday, everybody.
• 28:37
  Speaker 4: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
• 28:41
  Speaker 4: somebody answer, let somebody know. You do not have.
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: To lose this round alone. Hold on, hold.
• 28:57
  Speaker 4: On, not tonight. Not now Hold on, hold on Let
• 29:07
  Speaker 4: me pull you out That bad luck fights hard But
• 29:15
  Speaker 4: it don't get the crown Hold on, hold on Stay
• 29:23
  Speaker 4: with me now.
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on. You're still here. now guitar solo