Latest / DEEP INSIGHT / Middle East experts assess latest escalation in U.S.-Iran conflict

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Middle East experts assess latest escalation in U.S.-Iran conflict · DEEP INSIGHT

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  Speaker 1: And tonight President Trump told Fox News that the strikes
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  Speaker 1: on Iran will continue until quote I say it's enough,
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  Speaker 1: and that the US will save Iranian energy targets for last. Now,
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  Speaker 1: to assess all these developments, we're again joined by two
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  Speaker 1: of our Iran watchers. Alan Air worked in the State
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  Speaker 1: Department and was a senior member of the Obama administration's
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  Speaker 1: negotiating team for the twenty fifteen Iran nuclear deal. He's
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  Speaker 1: now at the Middle East Institute. And Miad Malaki was
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  Speaker 1: born and raised in Iran. Until last year, he was
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  Speaker 1: the Associate director for Sanctions Targeting in the US Treasury Department,
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  Speaker 1: with a focus on Iran. He's now a Senior Fellow
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  Speaker 1: at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Thanks very much,
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  Speaker 1: welcome back both of you to the News Hour. Mean, Malacha,
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  Speaker 1: let me start with you. As we just reported today,
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  Speaker 1: the US relaunched its blockade on Iranian ports. We're in
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  Speaker 1: the fourth straight night of US attacks on Iran again,
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  Speaker 1: and the US has reimposed sanctions to prevent Iran from
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  Speaker 1: selling oil. What's your reaction to this series of steps
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  Speaker 1: the President's take.
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  Speaker 2: Well, thanks for having me again, just you know, just
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  Speaker 2: very quickly I think what we're seeing happening here is
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  Speaker 2: really just US responding to Iranian regime's decision to go
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  Speaker 2: from getting a very generous offer from the US government
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  Speaker 2: to launching a taxi again in the straight up of Foremost.
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  Speaker 2: You know, that Memorandum Understanding gave Iran what Iran didn't
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  Speaker 2: have since twenty twelve, and that's selling oil, petrochemicals, petroleum
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  Speaker 2: products and getting paid in the US dollars. That was
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  Speaker 2: a very major leverage that Iran got out of the
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  Speaker 2: Memorandum Understanding. Yet, when they felt like they can't really
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  Speaker 2: control this creta Foremost, and when they kind of face
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  Speaker 2: the reality of the domestic pressure that they have to
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  Speaker 2: deal with and the fact that they can operate better
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  Speaker 2: in the state of war and the straight up Foremost
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  Speaker 2: is something that they kind of view as a US vulnerability,
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  Speaker 2: they went back to this conflict, and I think the
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  Speaker 2: US government is just rightfully responding to that.
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  Speaker 1: Allan airs the US government rightfully responding.
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  Speaker 3: I think the US government unfortunately is strategically flailing. Yes,
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  Speaker 3: it is in fact the case that Iran insists on
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  Speaker 3: operational control of the strait of hormones because it doesn't
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  Speaker 3: trust the US, and so it sees control of the
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  Speaker 3: Straight as strategic leverage, and that's why when it looked
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  Speaker 3: at that very ambiguous Article five of the MoU, it
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  Speaker 3: decided to press its point because for Iran, the whole
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  Speaker 3: game is strategic deterrence and preventing future attacks, and it
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  Speaker 3: thinks it can only do that by insisting it controlled
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  Speaker 3: the Straight, which is why it was attacking those ships
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  Speaker 3: hugging the Omani coast. That we're trying to leave the
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  Speaker 3: Strait with US air cover.
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  Speaker 1: As opposed to leaving through the Strait closer to the
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  Speaker 1: Iranian coast is what the IRGC wanted them to do.
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  Speaker 3: The new normal right, which again we can talk about that.
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  Speaker 3: So it's regrettable, but it's understandable that once again both
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  Speaker 3: sides have fallen back to what they do best, Iran
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  Speaker 3: holding international commerce hostage, the US doing strikes that are
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  Speaker 3: tactically efficient but perhaps strategically insufficient.
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  Speaker 1: And Malaki the US goal here a stated goal is
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  Speaker 1: to try and prevent Aroan from being able to attack
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  Speaker 1: these ships to feel more pain if it decides to
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  Speaker 1: keep on attacking these ships in the straight upfore moves,
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  Speaker 1: can these steps actually accomplish that well.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, it's very clear that Iran's ability to conduct
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  Speaker 2: these attacks, he's been on the decline. As a matter
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  Speaker 2: of fact, General mckensey may have a clear.
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  Speaker 1: Former Central Command commander who designed, at least in the
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  Speaker 1: last decade, some of these around war plans.
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  Speaker 2: Yes, sir, it may be clear that based on the
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  Speaker 2: assessments of Sencom, and I remember those, the expectation was
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  Speaker 2: much higher as far as Iran's ability to close Thereto
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  Speaker 2: cormos or the scope of the attack. So it really
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  Speaker 2: shows that Sancom has been able to really effectively degrade
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  Speaker 2: those operations by Iranians. Oil is flowing out of the
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  Speaker 2: straight or Foremos there were US Energy Secretary today said
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  Speaker 2: that fifty million bells of oil is coming out of
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  Speaker 2: the Rareto Foremos. The were or tanker that were coming
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  Speaker 2: out of the strata forms last night kind of coming
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  Speaker 2: closer to the to the coast of Homon. So Iranian's
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  Speaker 2: ability has been degraded to do what they were able
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  Speaker 2: to do at the beginning. And I think if you
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  Speaker 2: continue with these stripes, you're going to see that the
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  Speaker 2: Iranians kind of the arm of their threat to the
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  Speaker 2: Streto Foremos being rolled back. I think Sentcom has the
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  Speaker 2: ability to do it. I think you're going to see
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  Speaker 2: these air strikes continue to target those launching paths and
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  Speaker 2: naval assets, and then it could be possible that Sentcom,
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  Speaker 2: your central commander knabsent they're going to get more involved
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  Speaker 2: in escorting the ships out of the strato Foremos.
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  Speaker 1: All and there has Iran's ability to attack targets in
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  Speaker 1: the straight up form move has been integrated.
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  Speaker 3: Yes, it has been degraded. I agree with my friend
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  Speaker 3: out one hundred percent. Has it been sufficiently degrad No?
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  Speaker 3: Is it able to be sufficiently disgraded degraded given how
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  Speaker 3: little military hardware it takes to threaten ships going through
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  Speaker 3: the strait. I don't think so. And again, the US
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  Speaker 3: system providing air cover, it's providing root passage and coordination.
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  Speaker 3: So the question becomes, can the US maintain pressure by
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  Speaker 3: degrading these these shore assets, rockets, missiles, fast attack craft
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  Speaker 3: enough to allow enough oil and products to come through
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  Speaker 3: the strait to keep the world economy going so that
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  Speaker 3: the blockade can take you know, its chunk out of
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  Speaker 3: Iran and force Iran to bend the knee and accept
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  Speaker 3: moving its redlines I don't think so, because we reset,
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  Speaker 3: we reset Iran's ability to withstand a blockade back to
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  Speaker 3: effectively zero. By this period of the ceasefire, they are
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  Speaker 3: able to export and they are able to empty their storage.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, let me just get both of you in the
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  Speaker 1: last minute and a half I have on this. The
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  Speaker 1: President has said this evening that Iran in the US
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  Speaker 1: are talking again. That presumably means the US negotiators. Quickly,
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  Speaker 1: you pointed out today you don't you believe that Iran
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  Speaker 1: is negotiating not to make a deal but to manage pressure.
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  Speaker 1: Is there a deal that can be had? And again,
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  Speaker 1: just quickly in the last minute that we have sure.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, my friend Allan here is probably one of
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  Speaker 2: the best exposed spokespersons that I've seen uh in in
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  Speaker 2: US government, and he's they've done. He's done a great
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  Speaker 2: job presenting the case for diplomatic approachment with Iran and
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  Speaker 2: cutting deal with this regime. And I got to tell you,
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  Speaker 2: they had the best deal they could have gotten as
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  Speaker 2: part of this MU They could have been selling oil
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  Speaker 2: now and getting paid in US dollars, Yet they chose
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  Speaker 2: a different path. So yes, my point is the Iranian
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  Speaker 2: regime will never engage in negotiations to resolve problems. They're
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  Speaker 2: only engaged to manage pressure and continue to explore the
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  Speaker 2: explore the revolution and ideology, and to compensate for the
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  Speaker 2: domestic failure by but by winning on this side of
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  Speaker 2: you know, fighting the great Satan in the Wes.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, Allen, just twenty seconds left on that.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with me out Iran. I'd love to
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  Speaker 3: substitute process for progress when it comes to diplomacy, and
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  Speaker 3: I also agree that at this point it's probably too
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  Speaker 3: late for diplomacy, even if we had the best US
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  Speaker 3: diplomats possible to table. So we're in this sort of
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  Speaker 3: bardo and limbo zone of neither war nor peace. We'll
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  Speaker 3: see what shifts.
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  Speaker 1: Ouen there, Ed Malachi, thank you very much to both.
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  Speaker 2: Thank you.
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