Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 280: Winter Didn’t Show Up: Why Drought Risk Is Climbing Fast with Gary Lezak

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280: Winter Didn’t Show Up: Why Drought Risk Is Climbing Fast with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

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We are once again welcoming back Gary Lezak to come on and share
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a weather report with us and the long term predictive weather
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that Weather 2020 has to offer for Cattle Country today.
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We're talking about droughts, we're talking about spring
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weather, we're talking about summer heat waves, severe
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weather outbreaks and everything else in between.
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Before we hop into today's episode with Gary, if you are
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watching on any of our podcast platforms, make sure you take a
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second to hit subscribe. Like this episode?
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Follow the show, go right in review or if you enjoyed today's
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episode, share it with a friend. Without further ado, let's go
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ahead and hear it from Gary Liszak.
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Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily podcast, your go to source for
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the latest livestock markets, industry insights and the
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updates shaping agriculture today.
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I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate for
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agriculture, here to keep you informed and connected.
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Now let's dive into today's episode.
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Gary, welcome back to the podcast.
1:06
How are you? How have you been?
1:09
It is great to be here. Thank you to you and Kettle USA
1:13
and and everyone who's listening.
1:15
I'm doing fantastic. I'm heading to New York City for
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a wedding this weekend and they've been blasted by all
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these snowstorms and cold weather.
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Whereas I'm in Golden, Co, where we've had virtually no winter.
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19 inches of snow has fallen here in Golden, and last year by
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this point we had 50 inches. The year before we had 60 inches
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by now, ending up with 93 inches a couple years ago, but this
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year we're stuck at 17. Now I leave for New York City
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Friday and it's supposed to snow in Colorado finally.
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And of course I love it. I live for it and I might miss
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it. That's heartbreaking.
1:58
That's heartbreaking. At least you're going to New
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York, and you'll probably see some snow there.
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No, no, no snow there. It's going to be warming.
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In fact, it might be 65° on warning day, so.
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Well, never mind trying to bring some optimism.
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Nice weather everywhere I live or go.
2:13
Oh my gosh, that's too funny. Gary.
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Yes, I was driving I-70 through Colorado last week and all the
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way through and I did hit some snow at about 3:00 AM on Logan
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Pass. They got about like 3 or 4
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inches while I was driving through, but otherwise
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absolutely barren. And when we drove back, we drove
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through the mountains at during the daylight.
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When we drove back the other day and I was pointing out to some
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of my employees who were with me on this drive, I was like, look
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at the ski slopes. Like look that you can literally
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see that they're having to blow snow up there because look
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around them, there is nothing on these mountains.
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And you just see like the ants of people going down the ski
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slopes. And I'm like, it's barren
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everywhere else right now. It is, it has been a crazy
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winter, I think for everyone across the Midwest that we have
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been seeing abnormally warm temperatures, less and less snow
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than we've normally seen. And it is, it's really
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concerning for a lot of cattle country as we go into spring.
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Especially in Colorado, I I went up to this restaurant called the
3:15
Chart House. It's about it's in Genesee of
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the Genesee exit. If you're coming up by 70, I
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highly recommend that restaurant.
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Just sort of cool. You get a great views of the
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Denver area and, and the plains. But I went up there and when I
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sat there for dinner, I went up there last night at 4:00 for
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happy hour because I wanted to sit there and watch this, see if
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it snowed. And it snowed for 5 minutes.
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So I was like, wow, there you go.
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But looking at all the mountains all around, there is no snow.
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It's it's not good. It's leaning into our topic of
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the day, which we've talked about quite a few times, the
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drought potential, the fire potential for the summer in the
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Rocky Mountains. And it, it's extreme and
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there's, there's little hope that this is going to provide
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enough moisture before we get to the summer.
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So as you, as you all know, a lot of you listening to this
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podcast, the weather pattern that we are experiencing now in
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March set up in October, We're in the third cycle of this
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year's pattern. And I can't stress this more.
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It's really hard to describe and explain.
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I do my best with you guys here. The pattern now is like almost
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identical to what happened at the very beginning in October.
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So this next seven days, next 10 days, it's, it's what it, when
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I'm looking at what happened in December in cycle 2 and in
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October in cycle one, I sometimes forget I'm looking at
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what already had happened and not a computer model forecast.
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Because what happens in the sequence of days, I'm like,
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well, this is what could happen here in the next week.
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And that's exactly what the models are doing.
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And so basically my point is the pattern now is the same as the
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one that set up in October, November, the one that cycled
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through the winter. As we go into spring and summer,
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the same pattern is going to continue.
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The exact same things don't happen, but a lot of
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similarities do happen. So the problem we have is where
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is the drought going to be expanding right at the time of
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the year? Well, I've been telling you in
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March, we should now know when the drought, where the drought
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is going to be expanding. And right now, Lauren, the
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drought is expanding over Nebraska and Colorado and
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Wyoming. So if you look at December to
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March, there is a significant increase in drought right now
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over Nebraska. So I still have some hope that
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that could start shrinking and not expanding.
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But as we said last year and this year, droughts are either
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expanding or shrinking. Right now it's expanding.
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If we get two or three more more weeks into this and get closer
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to April, I'm going to make the call that we're going to have a
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significant problem. Where will this drought expand
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to now? It is not expanded into Iowa and
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Kansas yet. So we will be monitoring that
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closely. But it's a growing issue for
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Cattle USA and for the dairy farms out there and for the corn
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and see soybean crops out there. We will, we will try to time it
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out. Our model, the LSU model gives
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you a week by week analysis which weeks are likely going to
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be dry and which weeks are likely likely going to be wet.
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And if any of you do have this tool, if you don't, I highly
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recommend it. And as Lauren will tell you, the
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links are down at the bottom. If you want these, it's called
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the Weather 2020 Vision dashboard.
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And if you don't want the full upgrade to that, that does cost
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about, you know, 1012 hundred $1500 what you want, but a year,
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you could start with the weather Intelligence Report and a few
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months later go, wow, this is real.
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And what I'm telling you is not just made-up and, and why
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doesn't anybody else do what we're doing?
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And what I'm describing to you is because they don't know how.
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However, this tool shows a lot of dry weeks, a few wet weeks.
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So when we do have a wet week, we just hope we get the kind of
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rain that will be good to soak in by the ways I'm concerned
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about the drought expanding. Yeah, for sure.
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I think it's been a continual concern for a lot of the
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Midwest, a lot of just the country in general as we have
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gone through this really odd winter, Gary, like I think all
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of us can look around and just be like, this is weird.
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We haven't seen a winter like this in a really, really long
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time. And I mean winter moisture is
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really impactful for how our spring grasses grow and how we
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we can kind of continue to outlook into what the middle of
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July and August is going to look like when that heat starts to
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come and our pastures and our ground being prepared for that.
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But it is very concerning that we're seeing the potential for a
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lot of drought expansion. But I think one of the biggest
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assets and tools that we have as producers and as ranchers is the
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ability to forecast and the ability to sit back and look and
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say, OK, this is coming. How can we prepare for it?
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Maybe we need to get more hay, maybe we need to start talking
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about some different land coverage, maybe we need to start
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looking at some different options for sending cattle to
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different pastures or different states for the summer, things
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like that. Right now we can sit back and we
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can really start to prepare, which I think is our biggest
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asset as we continue to go into spring and into the concerning
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months of summer. Yeah.
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Would you basically describe is instead of being reactive, be
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proactive. That's what Weather 2020 does.
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We provide enough information and data that you can be
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proactive. In other words, plan for when
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the heat wave is going to come. Yes, the cattle out there will
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be really stressed and we may lose some if we have a major
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heat wave because they can only handle so much heat and that is
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due towards the end of July and early August.
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We've been predicting the heat wave everything.
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So on schedule there's going to be 1.
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How strong will it be? How long will it last?
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That's a good question. Hopefully no longer than three
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to five days because as soon as it gets to three to five days to
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seven days, that's when the cattle stress and your crops
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stress and especially soybeans at that time of the year.
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So there's a big concern there for for that.
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But point is with weather 2020, a lot of you listening now for a
9:44
year or so and you you're gaining confidence this is real.
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I'm not I'm not just telling you stuff that why doesn't anybody
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else do it? I'll say it again.
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No one else does it because no one else understands it.
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The pattern is cycling and my peers, the meteorologist out
10:02
there, scientific community is out there, they have no idea.
10:05
We have a severe weather risk on Friday and it's October 4th, the
10:10
7th returning. There wasn't a lot of severe
10:14
weather October 4th the 7th, but there was a significant severe
10:18
weather episode on December the 18th.
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And remember this year's about 75 day cycle, roughly 1110 to 11
10:25
weeks. October 5th, severe weather,
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December 18th, significant severe weather.
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Those are 74 days apart. Just so you know those dates
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that those dates. So now we are about 75 days
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later and we're going into that the end of the first week of
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March, boom, severe weather. And I have a severe weather
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guide that I put a lot of time into and it looks like a Storm
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Prediction Center outlook for severe weather that is out
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there. You can look for the severe
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weather guides on our weather 2020 side as well that, that
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guide, the criticism that comes in, I don't know why I have to
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talk about this criticism, but I'll just, I think just to make
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a point, the criticism that comes in on this guide, I'll say
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like for example, March 8th to 17th and March 20th to April
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2nd. Those two time frames we have
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our areas where we are predicting severe weather that
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is based on what the weather pattern is already done, that is
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based on severe weather that has already occurred.
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Last year there were 9 cycles. It's just only going to be 4 or
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five because of the long cycle. But in all nine cycles,
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tornadoes happened in each cycle in certain parts of the pattern.
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So when I draw in these areas and I show them at a given
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forecast for severe weather, my peers out there will say, oh,
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that's hard. You're predicting severe
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thunderstorms in the middle of Oklahoma on May the 15th.
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I could do that. I'm like, OK, do it.
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Let me see you do it. Yes, climatology says the middle
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of Oklahoma's going to have severe weather.
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But we're not using climatology. I'm not even looking at
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climatology. I'm using what what happened in
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the pattern and when it's going to return.
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One year it might be May 10th to 12th.
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One year might be May 20th to 22nd.
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The Joplin tornado occurred on May 22nd.
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We're not saying it's going to happen every year on May 22nd.
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We're telling you when and where it's going to happen.
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But that's what we do for severe weather, Lauren.
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That's what we do for winter forecasting and winter storm
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systems, and that's what we do for flooding, for heat waves,
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for drought. It's all part of the cycling
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pattern. And that's the discovery I
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personally am bringing to the world with tremendous
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challenges. And I spoke at the Storm Chaser
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Summit this year and I presented a couple of these areas of
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severe thunderstorms. And when they happen, I'll be
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able to pull that out and show what I presented them because
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they all took pictures of that severe weather outbreak.
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And it's going to happen. I can't wait for that day.
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Yeah, for sure. It's really, I think fun to sit
13:15
back and be like, hey, we talked about that months ago,
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especially when it comes to things that we have already
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talked about, Gary, whether it be last freeze dates or a heat
13:24
wave coming at the end of July and early August.
13:26
And all of the other things that we've kind of been touching on
13:29
over the past few months that this cycle has really started to
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solidify. And we've really been able to
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start to make those predictions and talk about them and things
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like that. So on those lines, Gary, are we
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but still seeing kind of the same time frame for last freeze
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dates. What are your thoughts on just
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as we go into March and April over the next few months?
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I did analyze that yesterday, in fact.
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In fact, I put it into our latest weather2020.subset.com
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that weather Intelligence Report and I showed the region has
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potential for a frost freeze risk.
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And then about the about the 10th of April, if the 10th of
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April, this happens to be the average last freeze or frost
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date for the area of near Kansas City.
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So after that first ten days of April, I do expect to freeze or
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frost in there. That probably will be the last
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frost or freeze date. However, there's another part of
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the pattern late in April, early May that's coming through.
14:28
That's another little cold stretch that may produce a frost
14:31
or freeze, but it's just unlikely at that time of the
14:34
year. So we got to watch for the late
14:36
frost or freeze. If it happened, I think it would
14:38
be a light one at the end of April, early May.
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Very good to know. And then are we still looking
14:44
for just as far as heat waves go and that severe weather risk as
14:49
we go into the next few months, do you want to touch on those
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things real quick for? Us, yeah, the the major heat
14:54
wave is still time. The cycle is slightly longer
14:56
than I had at the very beginning of the season.
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I thought it was 7273 days. It's a little longer.
15:01
So it's still centered around the first week of August for our
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major heat wave. So again, yes, that's the
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hottest time of the year. All right, But it's not going to
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be 92, it's going to be 102. It's not going to be 95 if
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that's what your average high is.
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It's going to 105. So we're have about a three to
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five to seven day stretch. As I said, hopefully not longer
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than that. By mid-May we're going to have a
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part of that pattern that's going to cycle through.
15:24
So by then we might be able to know if it's going to last a
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little bit longer, but it could still be impacting.
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That's going to happen. And then, you know, the rest of
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the next few weeks, you know, not too many wet weeks.
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The the stretch coming our way that looks like it's going to be
15:43
wet and there's severe weather risks.
15:45
You get an inch of rain real quick with one of these
15:47
thunderstorms. So that is a possibility.
15:50
However, this is right on schedule and the models had 1020
15:56
inches of rain from western Missouri near the Kansas City
16:00
area, SE to Cape Girardeau and all of a sudden it's down to 1
16:04
inch of rain in Kansas City. So, so, but it still looks like
16:08
it's a wet period for southern and eastern Missouri and they
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need it. They're in drought right now.
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So. But that's what it looks like.
16:16
Very, very good to know. Is there anything else that we
16:18
need to kind of head on on the weather today, Gary?
16:20
Any other high, low points, anything else that we need to
16:24
touch on as we really start to, I hear spring knocking on the
16:28
door here in Kansas. I'm hoping I'm not getting my
16:30
hopes up a little bit too much, but days are starting to get
16:33
longer, Things like that. I can kind of, I can see a
16:36
little light at the end of the tunnel now.
16:38
But anything else we need to head on today?
16:41
Well, just the fact that you know, you make you make a couple
16:45
good points there. It isn't spring yet.
16:47
Spring begins March 1st, 22nd, whatever the date it is and it
16:51
is still winter. Someone posted I know they were
16:53
probably somewhat kidding. They go Gary this how can we?
16:56
Why is there sleet and snow out there?
16:59
It's spring. I go, no, it's not it's still
17:01
winter. It is not.
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But you know, don't forget the time changes this weekend too.
17:06
So we lose an hour, Very, very bad for meteorologists for me,
17:12
because remember, the new data comes in the new day is now
17:15
going to come in an hour late. OK, Because we lose an hour
17:19
spring for everyone's like, don't you want to have sunlight
17:22
later in the day? No, well, the days are going to
17:26
get longer. We're going to get sunlight
17:27
later in the day anyway. All right.
17:30
But now we have to force an extra hour on there and and and
17:34
that causes the data to come in an hour later.
17:37
You can either like let me get on my high horse for a second on
17:40
time change. Like there is so much data out
17:42
there that says that it is terrible for our sleep, it's
17:45
terrible for our lives. Like it's terrible for all of
17:48
these other things. Like there's data out there that
17:51
shows that like the amount of wrecks that happened, the amount
17:54
of just like mental health issues that happened the day or
17:57
the week of time change is insurmountable.
18:00
And so AI hate time change in general.
18:03
Like B Arizona already figured it out years ago.
18:07
Why can't we all just get on the same ship?
18:10
Like it's, it's ridiculous and it does, it does nothing.
18:13
You're either going to have your light at the beginning of the
18:15
day or at the end of the day. And you know what?
18:16
By the middle of the year, it's the same either way.
18:19
So like, let's just keep on the same train.
18:22
You don't have to get your reports late.
18:24
I don't have to worry about resetting my alarm clocks and
18:27
trying to reset my circadian rhythm.
18:29
And. I know, I know.
18:32
My concern is like, depending on when the politicians decide
18:36
we're not going to do it anymore.
18:38
I just hope that they decide like after October when we go to
18:41
the fall back. Let's stick with that one.
18:44
Please stick with that one. Don't tell me spring forward is
18:48
better. Fall back is better.
18:50
If we if we stay with fall back, we all gain an extra hour and we
18:55
don't ever lose an hour again. So if we stay with fall back, we
18:59
all benefit. We gain an hour of our life.
19:03
Now granted an hour divided by 50 years, it's like a a few
19:07
seconds a day, but I'll take it. Please please please.
19:13
I agree, Gary, I think you and I need to go lobby on Capitol Hill
19:17
about, you know what, if we're going to do this, it better be
19:20
fall back and I will stand on my high.
19:24
No politics to me. I'm not going to lobby.
19:27
I'm going to stay out of it now. I'll complain on the screen
19:29
privately to people, but I'm not going to.
19:31
I'm not going to go into that. Land, you know, if there's
19:34
something out there to lobby for, I think that's something to
19:37
lobby for because you know what, we can just, it's fun.
19:40
Like it's not that serious. It's not that.
19:42
Serious. It's exactly I might, maybe I
19:44
will do that. It's a fun way to do it right?
19:48
Because it's not that serious. At the end of the day, yeah,
19:50
that's that. Republican or Democrat, it's
19:53
like, I want the time change. Someone will turn it into that
19:56
though. You know our politics.
19:58
It definitely will, but I love it, Gary.
20:01
Well, is there anything else we need to head on today before?
20:03
That is it for now, and you go out of the day.
20:06
I'm going to go to New York City.
20:07
I'll report back to you next week, and I'll tell you some New
20:09
York City experiences. I love it.
20:12
I cannot wait. Well, Gary, as always, thank you
20:14
for your time. To all of our listeners out
20:16
there, make sure you check out the show notes down below.
20:18
All of Gary's links and everything that he talked about
20:20
today are going to be down there for you to check out, whether
20:22
it's his sub stack, that weather Intelligence Report, or just the
20:26
Weather 2020 dashboard or anything else that they have to
20:28
offer. Without further ado, thank you
20:30
Gary, and to all of our listeners and we'll see you all
20:32
next time. Have a good one.