Latest / UK Column Radio / Trump's Biggest Gamble Yet: Can America Survive Another Iran War? | Silk and Steel
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Silk and
- 0:03Speaker 1: Steel Podcast. I'm your host, Carl Zat. Today I brought
- 0:07Speaker 1: back the crowd favorite uh In Kegan all the way
- 0:12Speaker 1: from Beijing, China. We'll back. Welcome back to the show, Innar.
- 0:17Speaker 2: Always a pleasure Carl, and lots to talk about as always,
- 0:20Speaker 2: So whatever you want to ask me, let's get into it.
- 0:24Speaker 2: Because there's been a lot happening last couple of days.
- 0:27Speaker 1: Oh yeah, definitely, definitely since last time we talked. You know, first,
- 0:33Speaker 1: Trump tackled by signing a surrender document of mu at Versailles,
- 0:40Speaker 1: of all places, uh to So we thought and it
- 0:43Speaker 1: looks like, well, why of that? That seems like, okay,
- 0:46Speaker 1: maybe it's this is a this is maybe it's a
- 0:49Speaker 1: rap right that the oil market will start to stabilize.
- 0:52Speaker 1: There's uh, there's some oil that's finally coming out of
- 0:56Speaker 1: the golf and one of a sudden Trump just decided,
- 1:00Speaker 1: you know what, that's not good enough.
- 1:02Speaker 3: I'm going to restart the war. So my question is
- 1:05Speaker 3: why why now?
- 1:06Speaker 1: I mean, like he was on the television a few
- 1:10Speaker 1: weeks ago saying, oh, if we continue to let the situation.
- 1:14Speaker 3: Develop, it's going to develop into a world depression.
- 1:18Speaker 1: You know, I don't want to be the president to
- 1:21Speaker 1: like to lead the world into a depression. So so he's
- 1:23Speaker 1: basically saying, I don't want to be Herbert Hoover.
- 1:27Speaker 3: Right, but now he's doing a Herbert Hoover.
- 1:30Speaker 2: Why why I'm not unsteroids? Well, he really doesn't feel
- 1:35Speaker 2: he has a choice. I mean, Donald Trump, you know,
- 1:40Speaker 2: I know, I keep going back to this issue. He
- 1:42Speaker 2: lives on a day to day basis. So he wakes
- 1:45Speaker 2: up in the morning and he tries to figure out, Okay, today,
- 1:47Speaker 2: what do I have to do. One. I have to
- 1:49Speaker 2: keep the Epstein files off the front page. I have
- 1:52Speaker 2: to cover up everything that has gone wrong. You know,
- 1:56Speaker 2: I made all these promises. None of them have come
- 1:59Speaker 2: true except you know, beating on immigrants, and you know,
- 2:03Speaker 2: so he has to come up with something. So it's
- 2:07Speaker 2: actually good for him on at least. I think he's
- 2:11Speaker 2: more afraid of the Epstein files than he is in
- 2:14Speaker 2: fact about the around war. I mean, the around war
- 2:18Speaker 2: right now is to him, he doesn't care about the
- 2:21Speaker 2: death and destruction or anything like that. What he cares
- 2:24Speaker 2: about is that this is going to affect the election.
- 2:27Speaker 2: And you know, yesterday you heard him going forward and saying, oh,
- 2:32Speaker 2: you know, you know it's China, although he couldn't, he couldn't.
- 2:37Speaker 2: There are no allegations. It's just like they have access.
- 2:40Speaker 2: Well why do they have access? I'm sorry, I'm getting
- 2:44Speaker 2: off the point here, but I have to get this
- 2:46Speaker 2: off my chest. So in twenty fifteen, there was a
- 2:49Speaker 2: leak of about ninety one million, one hundred somewhat million,
- 2:54Speaker 2: you know, details about voter rolls. And then two years
- 2:59Speaker 2: later there's one hundred ninety one million leagues. And then
- 3:02Speaker 2: a few years later there was another leap of about
- 3:04Speaker 2: four and a half four point seven million information about voters. Well, okay,
- 3:11Speaker 2: let me explain this. People don't understand. First off, this
- 3:15Speaker 2: was not hacks. These were the incompetence of the of
- 3:19Speaker 2: the people who were supplying the services who accidentally let
- 3:23Speaker 2: this information out and it was free for anybody to
- 3:26Speaker 2: sit down and copy. But on top of that, I
- 3:29Speaker 2: used to run elections in the US. I used to
- 3:31Speaker 2: purchase this material, which you know, you'd pay so many
- 3:36Speaker 2: dollars and they'd send you the voter rolls for any
- 3:39Speaker 2: area that you defined. So if I was running a
- 3:41Speaker 2: local election, I say Okay, I need the voter rolls
- 3:44Speaker 2: for this thing, and I'd say I want for the
- 3:46Speaker 2: last five, ten years, whatever, and I want to see
- 3:49Speaker 2: voter patterns people who vote more often. Now, I don't
- 3:52Speaker 2: get their names and addresses and things like that or
- 3:54Speaker 2: the personal details, but I can get it on a
- 3:57Speaker 2: ward by warp basis, and that gives me a basis
- 4:00Speaker 2: to make some projections and say, Okay, what are the
- 4:03Speaker 2: big issues here? So that's all the little stuff. My
- 4:07Speaker 2: point is he's making allegations that make no sense. This
- 4:12Speaker 2: stuff has been around for a long period of time.
- 4:14Speaker 2: It was not Chinese hacking. If it was hacking, why
- 4:18Speaker 2: didn't he produce the smoking gun? Why because there is
- 4:21Speaker 2: no smoking gun? Otherways, I assure you he would have,
- 4:25Speaker 2: you know, said here it is, here's the proof. And
- 4:28Speaker 2: you know it's just if he really believed this that
- 4:32Speaker 2: China had interfered in the election, and he has all
- 4:35Speaker 2: this secret, declassified information which is just a rehash of
- 4:40Speaker 2: everything I just said, why isn't he saying I'm going
- 4:43Speaker 2: to put one hundred or ten tariffs on Chinese goods
- 4:47Speaker 2: because they interfered the election. But I want people to
- 4:50Speaker 2: think about something. The only fair elections that have been
- 4:55Speaker 2: had were when Democrats were in the White House, because
- 4:59Speaker 2: those the only two times that he won. The only
- 5:02Speaker 2: time he lost, he was in control of the federal government.
- 5:06Speaker 2: So I'm trying to get this understanding that somehow everything
- 5:10Speaker 2: was rigged against him. So this is Donald Trump. Now
- 5:15Speaker 2: let's get into your first question, which is the war.
- 5:19Speaker 2: I said he reacts on a day by day basis.
- 5:21Speaker 2: He's not happy about this because the war means prices
- 5:26Speaker 2: continue up. He's looking at global recession. He doesn't want
- 5:30Speaker 2: to be remembered that way. And it's going to definitely
- 5:33Speaker 2: affect his performance in the midterms. And it's not him,
- 5:36Speaker 2: he's not on per election, but control of the House
- 5:40Speaker 2: and the Senate is. And he has this idea in
- 5:44Speaker 2: his head that what I can do is who's against
- 5:47Speaker 2: me right now? Well, in his last election, he was
- 5:50Speaker 2: about fifty percent of young men under thirty. Now he
- 5:54Speaker 2: is about twenty seven percent, so he's basically less than half,
- 5:58Speaker 2: I mean just a little bit more than half. And
- 6:01Speaker 2: among women, you know, he's never been very popular one women.
- 6:05Speaker 2: I don't know why. I mean, he seems to like women.
- 6:08Speaker 2: He is twenty nine women who claim that he molested them,
- 6:11Speaker 2: so obviously he feels something in that direction. Of course,
- 6:15Speaker 2: he likes young young people because he used to own
- 6:18Speaker 2: Team this US Hey, so obviously he likes women. He
- 6:22Speaker 2: always declares that, you know, the next wife hasn't been
- 6:24Speaker 2: born yet. That's always a shocker. I wonder if he's
- 6:29Speaker 2: still saying that. But he's in this situation where he
- 6:34Speaker 2: thinks that if he can get women and young men
- 6:37Speaker 2: off the voter rolls, all right, he has this chance
- 6:41Speaker 2: of winning. And I don't know where this comes from.
- 6:44Speaker 2: You know, if you start looking in the data of
- 6:46Speaker 2: the people who he doesn't want any kind of vote
- 6:50Speaker 2: by mail, although he always votes by male, which is
- 6:54Speaker 2: kind of an irony, isn't it. He doesn't want voting
- 6:58Speaker 2: by mail, He doesn't want young men, and he does
- 7:00Speaker 2: and want women, and he thinks that will be enough
- 7:02Speaker 2: to get him in. But he has to remember the
- 7:04Speaker 2: people who do vote by mail are the elderly ones.
- 7:07Speaker 2: A lot of elderly in for instance, his home state,
- 7:10Speaker 2: and they almost a vast majority of them are voting
- 7:14Speaker 2: by mail because all of them are in nursing homes.
- 7:17Speaker 2: It's inconvenient for them to go and wait in line
- 7:19Speaker 2: and you know, stand around, especially when there's in their
- 7:21Speaker 2: seventies and eighties. It's just not something they want to do.
- 7:25Speaker 2: So he might find that he's in a surprise. Also demographically,
- 7:28Speaker 2: it doesn't make sense. I mean, if you're well educated,
- 7:33Speaker 2: in higher income which tend to be as a whole
- 7:37Speaker 2: groups that do not favor Donald Trump, they actually are
- 7:41Speaker 2: more likely to have a passport, to have many forms
- 7:44Speaker 2: of ID easily. You know, they own multiple houses, so
- 7:47Speaker 2: they can say they definitely have some proof that they
- 7:51Speaker 2: have a gas bill or something like that, whereas people
- 7:55Speaker 2: who are less educated all right, are you know, not
- 8:00Speaker 2: as likely to have these forms by da and a
- 8:03Speaker 2: lot of them make up his base, so I think
- 8:05Speaker 2: he could be very much surprised even if he got
- 8:08Speaker 2: this Save America Act through, which was the whole point
- 8:11Speaker 2: of this thing. He didn't make any allegations that could stay,
- 8:16Speaker 2: He didn't threaten China with retribution for interfering in the election.
- 8:21Speaker 2: He didn't make any kind of sense whatsoever. But it
- 8:25Speaker 2: was just literally, let's rally the base and see if
- 8:27Speaker 2: they can push their senators and their congressman to pass
- 8:31Speaker 2: this Save America Act, because that's right now his only
- 8:35Speaker 2: hope So how does this tie into Iran? It's all connected.
- 8:40Speaker 2: Obviously his failures in Iran, the fact that he went
- 8:43Speaker 2: in there. That's an uncontrolled situation. It's just there's just
- 8:48Speaker 2: no way out of it for him. If he was ridiculing,
- 8:52Speaker 2: you know, Biden and Obama for giving you less than
- 8:57Speaker 2: a couple of billion dollars, he's proposing to give thirty
- 9:00Speaker 2: billion dollars and on top of that, they want more
- 9:04Speaker 2: reparations and things like this. How does he explain that
- 9:07Speaker 2: to people that he started or forever war, doesn't know
- 9:10Speaker 2: how to get out massive miscalculation, and he is, like
- 9:14Speaker 2: I said, he's just vamping it. Every day. He just
- 9:17Speaker 2: tries to figure out how to deal with that day,
- 9:20Speaker 2: and then tomorrow comes and he figures out a new strategy.
- 9:23Speaker 2: So this is the way that I understand Donald Trump,
- 9:26Speaker 2: and it's if you look at it that way, all
- 9:30Speaker 2: of a sudden, all his behavior becomes very very transparent.
- 9:34Speaker 2: You know, what's the what's the dead cat or the
- 9:37Speaker 2: you know, bunch of white bunnies. He's going in unleash
- 9:41Speaker 2: at the White House press conference to keep the press,
- 9:44Speaker 2: you know, darting their eyes around and following stories that
- 9:47Speaker 2: make no sense, instead of sticking on the main line,
- 9:50Speaker 2: which is his massive failures. They still are mentioned, but
- 9:55Speaker 2: because he's throwing so much stuff out there, as Steve Bannon,
- 9:58Speaker 2: we're just, you know, we're going to throw everything, all
- 10:02Speaker 2: the shit against the wall and see what sticks. We
- 10:05Speaker 2: were going to overwhelm them. And this has been the strategy,
- 10:08Speaker 2: and so far it has worked to some degree, but
- 10:11Speaker 2: his popularity is waning. American voters vote with their pocketbooks,
- 10:16Speaker 2: and it doesn't matter whether they like you or not. Well,
- 10:20Speaker 2: you know, of course, if they're part of the cult, yes,
- 10:24Speaker 2: they'll vote for you, even if you' you know, if
- 10:26Speaker 2: it doesn't even make sense, like the fellow who said, yeah,
- 10:29Speaker 2: well I used to be able to hold twenty five
- 10:32Speaker 2: box worth of gas in my car. Now it holds
- 10:35Speaker 2: about two hundred dollars worth, not realizing that the cost
- 10:41Speaker 2: of gas had gone up. And this kind of person, well, yes,
- 10:45Speaker 2: they will continue to adhere to Donald Trump. And I
- 10:47Speaker 2: believe he's the greatest thing. He's a savior, he's the guy.
- 10:51Speaker 2: But the rest of them, those who voted for some
- 10:54Speaker 2: sort of change, they thought that he could reduce prices
- 10:58Speaker 2: like he said he would, that he wouldn't get in
- 10:59Speaker 2: these forever wars that he would make America great again,
- 11:03Speaker 2: bring back jobs and everything like that. They're not going
- 11:06Speaker 2: to vote for him this time around, and you're going
- 11:09Speaker 2: to see a situation very close to happen with Richard Nixon.
- 11:14Speaker 2: I don't know who comes from the Democratic side, because
- 11:18Speaker 2: they're hopelessly in confusion on a perpetual basis. I remember
- 11:24Speaker 2: one of my good friends, he says, I don't belong
- 11:26Speaker 2: to any organized party, and I'm a Democrat, and he
- 11:30Speaker 2: was quite proud of that. But I don't know if
- 11:31Speaker 2: that's necessarily a model recipe for governance, if you know
- 11:36Speaker 2: what I mean. We don't know what we're doing or
- 11:38Speaker 2: where we're going, but you know, let's have some fun
- 11:40Speaker 2: along the way. So I don't know things, but I
- 11:43Speaker 2: think it's going to be a situation very much like
- 11:45Speaker 2: after Nixon. Gerald Fork ran and not successfully. He was
- 11:51Speaker 2: pushed out by Jimmy Carter. What was Jimmy Carter? He
- 11:54Speaker 2: was an unknown He was a governor of Georgia. He
- 11:57Speaker 2: was a very very sincere man who who you know.
- 12:00Speaker 2: It seemed it didn't seem like he was tricky dick.
- 12:03Speaker 2: So they voted for the other. And my guess is
- 12:07Speaker 2: that that is the greatest danger Donald Trump. Establishment neoliberal Democrats,
- 12:13Speaker 2: especially the older ones, have lost their luster. And we
- 12:15Speaker 2: see that in the local elections where you know, the
- 12:19Speaker 2: rising stars are being backed by the mayor of New York,
- 12:24Speaker 2: the Sandani. You know this is you know, you couldn't
- 12:28Speaker 2: have say to somebody, you know, four years ago, he whiz.
- 12:32Speaker 2: You know, the next mayor of New York is going
- 12:34Speaker 2: to be Muslim, nonpracticing, and he's going to be leading this,
- 12:39Speaker 2: you know, this surge of new candidates who are actually
- 12:43Speaker 2: backed by young Jews who are against the Zionist expansion
- 12:48Speaker 2: in things. And people will look at you, what what
- 12:50Speaker 2: kind of science fiction is that? Okay, but let's let's
- 12:55Speaker 2: go back to one of my favorite subjects these days,
- 12:58Speaker 2: which is the fact that there was never any chance
- 13:03Speaker 2: that the MoU was going to work out. I mean,
- 13:05Speaker 2: I remember going on shows and saying, well, let's hope
- 13:09Speaker 2: it works out, but you know, you have a problem.
- 13:12Speaker 2: And the way I look at a problem, Carl, I
- 13:14Speaker 2: don't know, did you ever watch the movie or read
- 13:17Speaker 2: the book The Three Body Problem.
- 13:20Speaker 1: I have not seen the movie or the book, but
- 13:23Speaker 1: I'm aware of it.
- 13:24Speaker 2: Okay, Well, it's based on an actual physics problem, and
- 13:29Speaker 2: that is when you have three Let's say you have
- 13:31Speaker 2: three planets that are orbiting each other. Well, each one
- 13:36Speaker 2: has its own gravity. You can establish how big it is,
- 13:40Speaker 2: you know, a size weight, everything like this, but you
- 13:43Speaker 2: cannot predict what will happened if you have two bodies.
- 13:46Speaker 2: All right, two planets orbiting each other, Yes, you can
- 13:49Speaker 2: predict very very accurately what's going to happen. But introducing
- 13:53Speaker 2: a third body makes it impossible because each one has
- 13:56Speaker 2: its own things and the variables increase beyond our ability
- 14:00Speaker 2: to actually predict them. So what we have with Iran
- 14:04Speaker 2: Israel in the United States is a three body problem.
- 14:08Speaker 2: Israel is dedicated to making sure the US never leaves
- 14:11Speaker 2: that there is a forever war against Iran until I
- 14:14Speaker 2: don't know. I don't know what they expect. They're going
- 14:16Speaker 2: to invade Iran when you know seven million people taking
- 14:18Speaker 2: over a ninety one million people. I don't think that's
- 14:21Speaker 2: going to happen. Maybe they want to destroy it, crippled it.
- 14:26Speaker 2: There's certainly not ever going to be a government governance
- 14:31Speaker 2: unit there that is favorable to Israel. So I don't
- 14:33Speaker 2: know where the endgame is for them, except this kind
- 14:36Speaker 2: of greater Israel thing, which never cleansie possible. It seemed
- 14:40Speaker 2: possible to me a country that small could literally take over.
- 14:45Speaker 2: They take land from the majority of its neighbors. Involved
- 14:48Speaker 2: about six or seven different countries. Yes, they've attacked those
- 14:51Speaker 2: countries and they've even be expanded it. There's many threats
- 14:55Speaker 2: made against Turkey. I still don't understand that. I mean,
- 14:59Speaker 2: Turkey has a one billion man army, they're part of NATO.
- 15:03Speaker 2: Article five means that if Israel attack them, the US
- 15:06Speaker 2: is most who defend Turkey, not Israel. They I don't know,
- 15:14Speaker 2: jury is still out, but you know, a very aggressive
- 15:18Speaker 2: country obviously, the genocide in Gnzo, the invasion in Lebanon
- 15:25Speaker 2: right now, the fact that they have over one hundred
- 15:27Speaker 2: and twenty nuclear weapons. It really is you know, like
- 15:31Speaker 2: I said, it has its own trajectory right now, and
- 15:33Speaker 2: no one can predict even what's going on within Israel.
- 15:36Speaker 2: So if you're considered a planet, it is a road planet.
- 15:40Speaker 2: You have no idea where it's going. Then you have
- 15:42Speaker 2: the United States. Donald Trump convinced a moment of insanity
- 15:46Speaker 2: that he should roll into Iran, that it will be
- 15:50Speaker 2: just like Venezuela, and it'll be great. He'll control the
- 15:55Speaker 2: oil from Iran and Venezuela. And he's you know, already
- 16:00Speaker 2: eaten down on Nigeria, you know, when bombing them into submission.
- 16:05Speaker 2: So you know, he really feels that he can go
- 16:08Speaker 2: through with this plan. That Eldridge Colby, who is heading
- 16:13Speaker 2: up war policy at the Department of Defense, I think
- 16:15Speaker 2: it's now the Department officially the Department of War, and
- 16:19Speaker 2: his belief was that the way for the US going
- 16:23Speaker 2: forward was to declare complete dominion domination of the Western hemisphere. Hence,
- 16:28Speaker 2: you know, we're going to take over Greenland, Canada's fifty
- 16:31Speaker 2: first straight. When it comes to Mexico a little squishy there,
- 16:37Speaker 2: we want to control them, but they're not going to
- 16:39Speaker 2: be the fifty second straight. I don't know why. I mean,
- 16:43Speaker 2: I don't know why they still make all of South
- 16:45Speaker 2: America part of the United States, but I guess they
- 16:49Speaker 2: don't want too many senators from down there they might
- 16:52Speaker 2: not vote for Republican, So dominate that area. And then
- 16:57Speaker 2: in terms of China, don't fight directly. What you do
- 17:00Speaker 2: is you use proxy situations. But more importantly, you control
- 17:04Speaker 2: China's oil, their energy, so you block it off. So
- 17:08Speaker 2: you know, what have we been doing is we discussed
- 17:10Speaker 2: before Venezuela and Nigeria and Iran. What do they have
- 17:13Speaker 2: in common? Oh, they export oil to China. Surprise, surprise.
- 17:20Speaker 2: And the second part of Eldridge Colby's plan. He wrote
- 17:23Speaker 2: a book in twenty twenty one talking about this. So
- 17:27Speaker 2: I mean I'm not saying, oh, you know, this is
- 17:29Speaker 2: a conspiracy. He's just said exactly what he wants to do.
- 17:32Speaker 2: And part of that is saying, look, we have to
- 17:35Speaker 2: get control of all the choke points. Because after we
- 17:39Speaker 2: can control China's oil and energy, then we if they
- 17:46Speaker 2: try to fight back, right, we will cut off all
- 17:51Speaker 2: of their trade because this is an export nation, right,
- 17:54Speaker 2: They import raw materials and they export value added goods.
- 17:57Speaker 2: If we can cut them off, we can reduce their
- 18:00Speaker 2: economy to nothing. So this is the plan. Donald Trump
- 18:04Speaker 2: is kind of vaguely following it, but not in a
- 18:07Speaker 2: kind of consistent way. It's kind of been backed into
- 18:11Speaker 2: different situations, but this is where it's going. So and
- 18:16Speaker 2: then you have Iran. Iran is now at the point
- 18:18Speaker 2: where they said, you know, we've taken a massive amount
- 18:20Speaker 2: of damage. Our leaders have been killed, not only political
- 18:24Speaker 2: but religious leaders, and now the son of the person
- 18:27Speaker 2: who got killed, or incidentally, his wife and child were
- 18:31Speaker 2: killed at the same time, he's in control of the country,
- 18:35Speaker 2: and funnily enough, he wants revenge. I don't know why
- 18:38Speaker 2: he's taking it so personally, but obviously he is. When
- 18:40Speaker 2: your father, your daughter, and your wife are killed less
- 18:43Speaker 2: a bunch of your relatives, and you know, a good
- 18:47Speaker 2: percentage of the people that you knew who represented what
- 18:50Speaker 2: you thought was the will of a sovereign nation, they
- 18:53Speaker 2: were basically executed. So they at this point have nothing
- 18:58Speaker 2: to lose. They're in their homeland, they're fighting a war
- 19:01Speaker 2: against an invader. They have nowhere to go. They're not
- 19:04Speaker 2: welcome anywhere, so they have to stay. So the hardship
- 19:08Speaker 2: is immense, but they're going to continue because what else
- 19:12Speaker 2: can they do. Now they know, and everyone has always
- 19:15Speaker 2: known that the straits of our moose was an ace
- 19:17Speaker 2: up their sleep. It's the reason that seven presidents consistently said, no,
- 19:21Speaker 2: we're not going to go fight Iran, not directly. We
- 19:25Speaker 2: did it through Iraq. Of course, we're not going to
- 19:27Speaker 2: do it directly, because if they close off the straits
- 19:30Speaker 2: form moves. It hurts them, but it hurts the global
- 19:33Speaker 2: economy even more. It's twenty percent of the world's oil,
- 19:37Speaker 2: right and twenty five percent of the world's gas and
- 19:40Speaker 2: gas as we know, is converted into fertilizer. And if
- 19:45Speaker 2: you don't have fertilizer, you don't have as much crop production.
- 19:51Speaker 2: If you don't have oil, you don't have diesel. If
- 19:55Speaker 2: you don't have diesel, you can't run your agricultural pumps
- 19:58Speaker 2: or your machinery. So has a huge impact. You know,
- 20:02Speaker 2: the price of everything. Plastics, all of it go back.
- 20:05Speaker 2: Synthetic materials go up. I mean, if you start looking
- 20:09Speaker 2: at gas, gasoline and energy, about forty goes into the
- 20:16Speaker 2: tanks of cars, and then a large chunk that goes
- 20:19Speaker 2: into sedentary into power plants, and then between sixteen and
- 20:26Speaker 2: twenty percent goes into products and things like this, and
- 20:29Speaker 2: that could be fertilizer, it can also be plastics and materials,
- 20:33Speaker 2: you know, clothing and nylon, rayon, all of these things
- 20:38Speaker 2: that you take for granted in your clothes, Yes, they're
- 20:41Speaker 2: all energy, they're all oil. So they feel that they
- 20:46Speaker 2: have an upper hand against in an asymmetrical war. They're
- 20:50Speaker 2: the ones who are doing the gorilla fighting by being
- 20:53Speaker 2: able to control the straits of poor mouths. And they
- 20:56Speaker 2: intend to get their pound of flesh back if they say,
- 21:01Speaker 2: if we can't explore oil, we will collect revenues from
- 21:05Speaker 2: the oil that goes through the horror moves straight. Is
- 21:07Speaker 2: it legal? Absolutely not? Okay, international convention. But when we
- 21:11Speaker 2: start talking about international convention, who's violated more than anybody else? Well, US,
- 21:18Speaker 2: this isn't a really good position. They're not even a
- 21:20Speaker 2: signatory to the UN Convention of the Seas, which they
- 21:24Speaker 2: in essence started because they wanted to. You know, the
- 21:28Speaker 2: US said, well, we want more territory, marine territory, and
- 21:33Speaker 2: who cares about the cannon shot rule? You know, twelve
- 21:37Speaker 2: thirteen miles, We need more, We want two hundred miles.
- 21:40Speaker 2: So that's what started the debate. And in the end
- 21:42Speaker 2: the US said no, we will not join. Why because
- 21:44Speaker 2: we don't recognize any power above our own, and the
- 21:48Speaker 2: idea that somebody would come in and actually say you're
- 21:52Speaker 2: in violation of something doesn't work. That's a reason why
- 21:55Speaker 2: we're not part of the ICC, the International Criminal Court.
- 21:58Speaker 2: It's why we didn't sign on to a lot of
- 22:00Speaker 2: treaties involving protection of women and children, very controversial issues
- 22:05Speaker 2: of course, you know, why would you want to protect
- 22:07Speaker 2: those who need protection the most. But we haven't done
- 22:10Speaker 2: it because we are not willing to submit to any
- 22:14Speaker 2: authority above our own. And that's the mark of an empire,
- 22:19Speaker 2: a group who believes that we are right, whether we're
- 22:22Speaker 2: right or wrong. So this is where they are. So
- 22:25Speaker 2: Iran now feels that they're empowered, and quite frankly, the
- 22:29Speaker 2: IRGC is this is a dedicated corpse of military fighters
- 22:35Speaker 2: who are also very religious. They're recruited on that basis.
- 22:38Speaker 2: You have to be a true believer to be part
- 22:40Speaker 2: of the CORES. So they have divided. In preparation for
- 22:46Speaker 2: what they eventually saw coming, they created thirty different units.
- 22:51Speaker 2: Now these units do not call in and they do
- 22:53Speaker 2: not coordinate with each other. They might listen to the
- 22:56Speaker 2: radio or television, but they know that if they make
- 22:58Speaker 2: a phone call, either on a landlined or through cell phone,
- 23:05Speaker 2: they very well could be targeted, and if they aren't targeted,
- 23:08Speaker 2: the US will blow them up. So they set up
- 23:12Speaker 2: these cells, military cells throughout there's in You know, I
- 23:16Speaker 2: have to remember this is a land with three huge
- 23:20Speaker 2: mountain areas on it independent ones, and these are it's
- 23:26Speaker 2: almost impossible. It's like three Afghanistans, I mean, and it's huge.
- 23:30Speaker 2: It's the seventeenth largest country in the world and you
- 23:32Speaker 2: have seventeenth largest population. This is not someplace where you're
- 23:36Speaker 2: going to put boots on the ground. You know, we
- 23:37Speaker 2: took some million to invade Iraq. Rock is one quarter
- 23:43Speaker 2: of the size, right and even less in terms of population. No, no,
- 23:49Speaker 2: it doesn't work that way. And they don't have they
- 23:52Speaker 2: don't have they didn't have the kind of geographic or
- 23:55Speaker 2: protections that Tran has. So it's a it's a mission impossible.
- 23:59Speaker 2: So Whennald Trump says, oh, boots on the ground, Hegseth
- 24:02Speaker 2: can say that, but the fact is it will never happen.
- 24:05Speaker 2: It does happen, there's going to be a lot of
- 24:07Speaker 2: body bags heading back to the United States and that
- 24:10Speaker 2: would not be very popular and even make it worse
- 24:13Speaker 2: for him in terms of the elections. So you have
- 24:16Speaker 2: a situation where you have three bodies who are going
- 24:18Speaker 2: in completely different directions. Donald Trump wants out, but he
- 24:22Speaker 2: doesn't know how to get out without you know, literally
- 24:25Speaker 2: compromising everything that he's ever said and being a laughing
- 24:28Speaker 2: stock for what he's done. I mean, even this sixty
- 24:32Speaker 2: day reprieve, which was not a peace agreement. It was
- 24:36Speaker 2: just simply saying we'll have a ceasefire for sixty days
- 24:39Speaker 2: so we can start talking about peace issues, but the
- 24:43Speaker 2: piece issues. And that's why I said this is not
- 24:46Speaker 2: going to work out, because Iran is not going to
- 24:49Speaker 2: give up their nuclear capabilities. Obviously, if you've been attacked,
- 24:54Speaker 2: you know, twice during peace negotiations, now a third time,
- 24:58Speaker 2: and somebody tore up the treaty that they had agreed to,
- 25:02Speaker 2: there's no reason for trust. So the idea is that
- 25:05Speaker 2: we give up everything that we have to protect ourselves
- 25:08Speaker 2: and we just trust you. Well, it didn't work out
- 25:11Speaker 2: so well for Saddam Hussein. It certainly didn't work out
- 25:15Speaker 2: in a number of places like Syria and also in
- 25:18Speaker 2: other Arab countries where you know, they were convinced to
- 25:21Speaker 2: give up their weapons and shortly after that they all died.
- 25:25Speaker 2: So there's no way that they're going to give that up.
- 25:28Speaker 2: They see the only way they can see and eventually,
- 25:31Speaker 2: long term and I don't care what they say, and
- 25:34Speaker 2: I think this is going to apply to the rest
- 25:36Speaker 2: of the Leastern countries is they want to go nuclear,
- 25:39Speaker 2: and the only way to prevent that is if there
- 25:42Speaker 2: is an agreement that Israel have to give their nukes
- 25:45Speaker 2: and everyone else gets up their nukes. That is not likely.
- 25:49Speaker 2: So we're in a situation which is escalating downwards, the
- 25:54Speaker 2: three body problem. You cannot figure out what is going
- 25:57Speaker 2: to happen next. And Donald Trump is not in control.
- 26:01Speaker 2: Israel is not in control, and Iran is not in control.
- 26:04Speaker 2: All we have is uncontrolled chaos.
- 26:12Speaker 3: But Trumpell almost he almost tackled. He already had.
- 26:17Speaker 1: To sign them, O you, that was the way out.
- 26:20Speaker 1: I mean, if he just sticked to the m ou,
- 26:23Speaker 1: we would be much better straight right now. And and
- 26:27Speaker 1: I understand what you were saying about this is because
- 26:31Speaker 1: due to the midterm, But that's again it's a little
- 26:33Speaker 1: bit of contraintuitive because midterm is two months away. And
- 26:38Speaker 1: here here what he's gonna do restarting this war. How
- 26:44Speaker 1: is that gonna help his chance with a miniter because.
- 26:48Speaker 2: It's not that. That's why he was on TV yesterday.
- 26:52Speaker 2: He's saying, you know, pass this bill, it's my last chance, okay,
- 26:57Speaker 2: And he doesn't want to the problem was the m
- 26:59Speaker 2: O U extremely unclear. I'm a lawyer. I mean, oh
- 27:02Speaker 2: my god, I would never have my client side something
- 27:04Speaker 2: like this. It was you know, they said that Iran
- 27:08Speaker 2: was in control of the straits of hormones, all right,
- 27:10Speaker 2: and Iran interpret that is we get to collect money
- 27:13Speaker 2: from there, and you guys stay out of it. No
- 27:15Speaker 2: more attacks, no more things. But the very day after
- 27:19Speaker 2: he signed the MoU he what did he do? He
- 27:21Speaker 2: threatened them, I'm going to blow you up unless you
- 27:24Speaker 2: you know, you do do everything according to what we've asked. So,
- 27:30Speaker 2: you know, with Donald Trump, like I said, it's day
- 27:32Speaker 2: by day. It is a mistake to assume that there's
- 27:35Speaker 2: some sort of long term strategy he is on. You know,
- 27:38Speaker 2: it's he's a feral animal. It's what do I have
- 27:41Speaker 2: to get through to today? I got to feed myself, right,
- 27:45Speaker 2: I have to place to sleep, you know. I got
- 27:47Speaker 2: to get people away from considering whether or not I'm
- 27:51Speaker 2: a pedophile and you know, whether how much money I'm
- 27:53Speaker 2: having to pay to people. I was not alleged but
- 27:56Speaker 2: convicted of raping sexual assault. I should say rape would
- 28:01Speaker 2: be too far since the judge said, well it was rape,
- 28:04Speaker 2: but it was like sexual assault. But that, you know,
- 28:06Speaker 2: let's quibble over it. Yeah, I mean, he's this idea
- 28:10Speaker 2: that he's in control is completely wrong. And that's what
- 28:13Speaker 2: I'm I keep stressing that he doesn't there's nothing for
- 28:17Speaker 2: him to gain. But he's in a no win situation
- 28:20Speaker 2: that he put himself in a stake was going into Iran.
- 28:25Speaker 2: He just doesn't know how to get out. And you know,
- 28:28Speaker 2: the Iranians are not helping either. I mean, they're not
- 28:31Speaker 2: going to lie down. They're going to press what they
- 28:34Speaker 2: think is their advantage. Now, if anybody's interested, they should
- 28:38Speaker 2: take a look at Iran in terms of previous negotiations.
- 28:42Speaker 2: Ranians are very very cagy in their negotiations. They take
- 28:47Speaker 2: a long time, very methodical, and they're very detailed. These
- 28:51Speaker 2: are not kind of negotiations you have over sixty days, right,
- 28:56Speaker 2: So if you know their history and you start looking
- 28:58Speaker 2: at these fourteen points, you knew you know, six of
- 29:02Speaker 2: them were complete non starters and the and the timeframe
- 29:06Speaker 2: wasn't even possible. So you sit there and you don't
- 29:09Speaker 2: want to go on TV and say, hey, well this
- 29:11Speaker 2: is this is it's not going to work. People say, oh,
- 29:14Speaker 2: you don't want it to work? No, I think everyone
- 29:17Speaker 2: wants it to work. The issue is it doesn't. And
- 29:20Speaker 2: and now we're facing the reality that you know, you
- 29:23Speaker 2: have I said, three players, and it's not completely unpredictable
- 29:27Speaker 2: what's going to happen. None of them feel that they
- 29:30Speaker 2: can end the war, but none of them feel that
- 29:33Speaker 2: they can actually win it said, maybe Israel.
- 29:36Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, I mean, the
- 29:39Speaker 1: whole the recent blow up, it's still revolved on the
- 29:43Speaker 1: fundamental issue is who controlled the strait or home moose And.
- 29:49Speaker 2: The yes.
- 29:55Speaker 3: Is yeah, that's what sad that.
- 29:57Speaker 1: But but why why why Donald Trump is compelled to
- 30:03Speaker 1: challenge that? Right they asked those ships to direct them
- 30:07Speaker 1: to go through the southern route, the Omani Channel, rather
- 30:11Speaker 1: than going through the Iran designated Iranian Channel. Why, like,
- 30:17Speaker 1: why does he even bother? Why can't Donald Trump's chill?
- 30:21Speaker 1: You know, he can just you know and do nothing.
- 30:23Speaker 2: Okay, Yeah, tell me when Donald Trump has chilled other
- 30:27Speaker 2: than on the golf course. Well, he's dropping another ball,
- 30:32Speaker 2: the one that kind of got away or that is
- 30:35Speaker 2: his forward caddy forgot to drop for him. No, I mean,
- 30:40Speaker 2: he's he's reacting day by day. He's obviously extremely uncomfortable.
- 30:44Speaker 2: You saw the speech yesterday. This was not the triumphant
- 30:47Speaker 2: guy who used to stand down there and stand up
- 30:50Speaker 2: there going on ad nauseum, you know about stuff you
- 30:53Speaker 2: couldn't even follow. He read from the teleprompter. Uh, you know,
- 30:59Speaker 2: unfortunately he didn't have his regular teleprompter there. Why because
- 31:02Speaker 2: that teleprompter was making bets on what was going to
- 31:05Speaker 2: be said, because he had the script. I don't know
- 31:08Speaker 2: if you saw that, I thought that was hilarious. I
- 31:14Speaker 2: still I don't know that it's a crime because it's
- 31:16Speaker 2: public knowledge. I suppose if it's a secret, he could
- 31:20Speaker 2: be prosecuted for that. But anyways, they put him on
- 31:23Speaker 2: temporary or permanent things. But in the end, this was
- 31:27Speaker 2: not Donald Trump's finest hour. And this is a situation
- 31:31Speaker 2: where he feels very much on his back foot, and
- 31:34Speaker 2: this is his last hope that he can somehow get
- 31:38Speaker 2: his the Senate and the House to pass this bill
- 31:43Speaker 2: because otherwise he doesn't have anything. So this is how
- 31:46Speaker 2: they're connected. There is there was no way for him
- 31:52Speaker 2: to go through with the Iranian troops. I shouldn't say
- 31:57Speaker 2: truths cease fire. You know. He had derided everybody who
- 32:02Speaker 2: had given them money and said you've strengthened them, and
- 32:05Speaker 2: that you have to give up your nuclear materials and
- 32:09Speaker 2: we get to inspect and do this, and that none
- 32:12Speaker 2: of those were realistic, and as a result, you have
- 32:16Speaker 2: a situation where Donald Trump, my feeling was at the
- 32:21Speaker 2: time was that he was just buying time. He says,
- 32:23Speaker 2: on a data basis, well, let's see if we can
- 32:25Speaker 2: get the price of oil down today. I'll tell my friends,
- 32:28Speaker 2: all right that I'm going to be, you know, doing
- 32:32Speaker 2: something with Iran declaring victory or you know, saying that
- 32:35Speaker 2: a truce is coming and they can buy into the
- 32:38Speaker 2: market and they can profit off the swings of the market.
- 32:42Speaker 2: And obviously a lot of people were doing that based
- 32:44Speaker 2: on these kind of regular bets that are made thirty
- 32:48Speaker 2: minutes before. And we're talking hundreds of millions of dollars
- 32:52Speaker 2: a bets. So I'm going to put it pretty certain
- 32:56Speaker 2: it wasn't the teller prompter guy. If he had hundreds
- 32:59Speaker 2: of millions of dollars, I doubt he would be working
- 33:04Speaker 2: in media just trying to figure out the scripts for
- 33:08Speaker 2: putting on the television. So, you know, he's in a
- 33:13Speaker 2: very bad situation. He's trying to make the best of it.
- 33:15Speaker 2: He keeps changing things. It's not gonna I don't see
- 33:19Speaker 2: it as working out. Unfortunately. I do see this leading
- 33:23Speaker 2: to a global recession. People have to come to terms
- 33:27Speaker 2: with that. Within the next couple of months, the cushion
- 33:33Speaker 2: these oil reserves are going to start disappearing. Ironically, though,
- 33:39Speaker 2: China is doing very well. I mean they huge demand destruction.
- 33:45Speaker 2: And what I mean by demand destruction is they've gone
- 33:48Speaker 2: to other things. So they're taking some coal and they're
- 33:54Speaker 2: reducing it into materials that can be used for synthetics. Okay,
- 33:58Speaker 2: it's a little bit more expense, but so is oil
- 34:01Speaker 2: right now, so is gas. So it's actually less expensive
- 34:05Speaker 2: than buying on the open market. But they've been able
- 34:07Speaker 2: to keep the reserves largely intact. And this isn't something
- 34:11Speaker 2: I'm saying. It's an observation by the US Intelligence agency
- 34:15Speaker 2: who for some reason think that it's okay to monitor
- 34:18Speaker 2: what the Chinese are doing, but they don't want the
- 34:20Speaker 2: Chinese monitoring what they're doing. It's kind of a one
- 34:23Speaker 2: sided thing. We're the good guys. We should see what
- 34:25Speaker 2: you do. Your bad guys, you shouldn't see the stuff
- 34:27Speaker 2: we're doing. It's pretty clear that China has the largest cushion,
- 34:32Speaker 2: so they can last longer. But at some point, all right,
- 34:35Speaker 2: this becomes very deadly serious because China will suffer if
- 34:41Speaker 2: the world economy goes, because it's China that's buying resources
- 34:44Speaker 2: and exporting value added, export value added, if people want
- 34:49Speaker 2: to buy, and if there's a global recession, there's going
- 34:52Speaker 2: to be a real hurt felt all the way around. Now,
- 34:55Speaker 2: China has not been sitting there bringing their hands and
- 34:59Speaker 2: saying what do we do? They have been doubling down.
- 35:02Speaker 2: You saw more recently the meeting with Putin, and they
- 35:08Speaker 2: had the meeting with Putin, but then they have this
- 35:09Speaker 2: twenty fifth anniversary of the Neighborly and Friendship Treaty, et cetera,
- 35:16Speaker 2: and they just start talking about increasing their goals, doing
- 35:19Speaker 2: more stuff. They still haven't resolved the power of Siberia two,
- 35:23Speaker 2: which would bring fifty million or billion cubic feet inches
- 35:29Speaker 2: of gas into China, which is a step above the
- 35:34Speaker 2: power of Siberia one, which brings in thirty five billion
- 35:38Speaker 2: cuban inches well meters whatever cubic centimeters no qubing meters,
- 35:43Speaker 2: probably of gas, very large amount that is overpriced. Obviously,
- 35:50Speaker 2: Russia is saying, look, you know, if you want it
- 35:52Speaker 2: long term, you know, this is an expensive project. You know,
- 35:55Speaker 2: who's going to pay for what and what is the
- 35:58Speaker 2: price going to be. And that's largely in the negotiation.
- 36:01Speaker 2: I think China feels that this isn't the right time
- 36:03Speaker 2: because you know, obviously Russia has the upper hand because
- 36:07Speaker 2: of the situation. I think they'd rather negotiate this during
- 36:11Speaker 2: peacetime when gas prices are perhaps more regulated, I mean,
- 36:15Speaker 2: more have come down and supply is better. They're not
- 36:19Speaker 2: in any hurry obviously to get it done. So you
- 36:23Speaker 2: have a situation where China is in good shape in
- 36:26Speaker 2: terms of its reserves, but it's in bad shape in
- 36:29Speaker 2: terms of what happens to a global economy that's in recession.
- 36:33Speaker 2: But it's not just bad for China. We're talking about
- 36:35Speaker 2: the whole world. And this is you know, Karl, I've
- 36:38Speaker 2: told you a dozen times, you know, or every time
- 36:40Speaker 2: that we've mentioned this thing. Is the only solution I
- 36:45Speaker 2: see to the situation is if the rest of the
- 36:49Speaker 2: world finally comes together and they don't have to form
- 36:51Speaker 2: a group, they just you know, get a bunch of
- 36:54Speaker 2: people who go to these three countries individually, whatever they
- 36:58Speaker 2: announce it on TV. Look, you three have to knock
- 37:02Speaker 2: it off because you're affecting the rest of us, and
- 37:07Speaker 2: you know, we want to sit down, We want to
- 37:09Speaker 2: give this a shot. We will all sit down together
- 37:12Speaker 2: and we'll try to figure out how to make this
- 37:14Speaker 2: work right, and we'll try to put in appropriate guarantees.
- 37:18Speaker 2: But if for some reason one or all of you
- 37:22Speaker 2: do not want to participate or go along with what
- 37:26Speaker 2: is a reasonable resolution for this, then we'll just stop
- 37:31Speaker 2: trading with you. You know, the United States and imported
- 37:34Speaker 2: four point three trillion dollars worth of goods that is
- 37:38Speaker 2: not you know, if those go away, it's it's not like, oh,
- 37:42Speaker 2: we'll just spend less. No, A lot of those are
- 37:45Speaker 2: necessities and things like this, and that would completely ruin
- 37:48Speaker 2: the US economy. Plus, if the US cannot export, remember
- 37:52Speaker 2: that the US is the number two export country in
- 37:56Speaker 2: the world, and a lot of those are services. Those
- 38:00Speaker 2: are all cut off, the American economy would literally crash
- 38:03Speaker 2: within weeks. The stock market would be reduced to a
- 38:07Speaker 2: third of its value. There would be chaos in the streets,
- 38:11Speaker 2: massive firings all across the board, and this would not
- 38:16Speaker 2: be sustainable. Israel would be in the same position. They
- 38:20Speaker 2: actually export a lot of things, but it would take
- 38:22Speaker 2: a lot of resolve for all these countries to say
- 38:25Speaker 2: that Ian would be in the same boat. For some reason,
- 38:28Speaker 2: they say, no, we won't do that. Well, fined, you
- 38:30Speaker 2: do no trade. If their oil revenues are cut off
- 38:34Speaker 2: and they cannot purchase anything, their economy would also rapidly decline,
- 38:38Speaker 2: even more than it already has. So I do think
- 38:41Speaker 2: that this is the only solution. The problem is the
- 38:44Speaker 2: leadership to bring that together is just not there. You
- 38:48Speaker 2: have a hopelessly divided world. You have groups that have
- 38:52Speaker 2: basically been put in power or been empowered by Washington.
- 38:56Speaker 2: And we've seen this in different parts of South America
- 39:00Speaker 2: and also in Africa and other places, and they're doing
- 39:04Speaker 2: Part of that is being a lot of pressure is
- 39:07Speaker 2: being put on places like the South Sea Islands. Remember
- 39:12Speaker 2: the National Endowment for Democracy, which was created because of
- 39:15Speaker 2: the Iran contra oil for arms situation, moved covert action
- 39:23Speaker 2: to stabilizing countries into the public realm. It is still
- 39:27Speaker 2: run by the CIA, it's financed and directed in theory
- 39:30Speaker 2: by the Congress, and that's the majority of their funds.
- 39:34Speaker 2: And they're in eighty countries. There's only one hundred and
- 39:37Speaker 2: ninety five ninety eight depending how you on account countries
- 39:40Speaker 2: out there, and they're in eighty of them. And they
- 39:42Speaker 2: explicitly say that they are promoting democracy, which means that
- 39:46Speaker 2: they are promoting getting rid of whoever is in there
- 39:50Speaker 2: do it. And you've seen their activities in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Sinjohn,
- 39:55Speaker 2: anywhere they can get into and try to destabilize those countries.
- 40:00Speaker 2: And it's not just there, I mean Air of Spring
- 40:02Speaker 2: that was them. You know, all those shiny posters that
- 40:06Speaker 2: all looked like you know, where do poor people get
- 40:09Speaker 2: the money to start printing posters like that? Did you
- 40:12Speaker 2: ever noticed in Hong Kong they had gas masks and
- 40:15Speaker 2: you know, and all these wonderfully glossy signs and materials
- 40:19Speaker 2: and all of these things, you know, And how is
- 40:22Speaker 2: it the poor students who are complaining that they have
- 40:25Speaker 2: no money, they're too poor, all right, and that that's
- 40:28Speaker 2: part of their grievances is are suddenly having all of
- 40:32Speaker 2: these materials, well know, and all English English. That's amazing
- 40:39Speaker 2: how that happens, right? And then you have this this
- 40:43Speaker 2: Apple newspaper or whatever it was called, and they have
- 40:48Speaker 2: unexplained fifteen million dollars in their bank. I mean, they
- 40:51Speaker 2: weren't making money, they were losing it.
- 40:53Speaker 3: They were losing money for years and Apple.
- 40:56Speaker 4: Daily month, all right, and yet when they get rab
- 41:00Speaker 4: this guy, they find fifteen million dollars in account and
- 41:03Speaker 4: there's no way to figure out where that money came from.
- 41:08Speaker 2: So I mean, obviously they're outside forces at work, and
- 41:13Speaker 2: this is the mess that we now have today. I mean,
- 41:16Speaker 2: you know, you think of this way. You have a
- 41:17Speaker 2: hedgem on the United States that has been a empire builder.
- 41:21Speaker 2: You know, we go out, we solve things by taking
- 41:23Speaker 2: things from other people, whether it's the American Indians, or
- 41:26Speaker 2: the French, the British, the Mexicans, whoever is necessary, Spanish.
- 41:31Speaker 2: We you know, we take what we need and sometimes
- 41:34Speaker 2: we buy it. Sometimes a little extra pressure helps. And
- 41:40Speaker 2: now we're at this kind of period where that that
- 41:43Speaker 2: isn't working. You know, we've threatened to take over Greenland. Well,
- 41:47Speaker 2: you know, our allies for some reason weren't happy about
- 41:49Speaker 2: it because Greenland's part of NATO and so it was
- 41:53Speaker 2: like a retrans Well, you know, we have to establish
- 41:55Speaker 2: our dominance, but we don't have a plan B, because
- 41:58Speaker 2: Plan B would have to admit that we are not
- 42:01Speaker 2: the king of the world all right, that we're not
- 42:04Speaker 2: exceptional anymore. We're just part of the world, and we
- 42:07Speaker 2: need to cooperate with the world, and that might mean
- 42:10Speaker 2: that we have to submit to the same rules as
- 42:12Speaker 2: everybody else. Shocking that hey, u n we establish it,
- 42:16Speaker 2: but we don't actually follow it. Very strange idea. But
- 42:20Speaker 2: now we've basically withdrawn so much funding from it, especially
- 42:25Speaker 2: World Health Organization and all the entities that are promoting
- 42:30Speaker 2: any kind of culture, social improvement, et cetera. So you know,
- 42:36Speaker 2: you have a situation that the US is going through
- 42:38Speaker 2: a transition at the same time that we are having
- 42:41Speaker 2: a transition economically. I mean, the digital revolution is as
- 42:46Speaker 2: consequential as industrial revolution. It is changing things first time
- 42:51Speaker 2: ever that you're starting to see why collar workers you
- 42:55Speaker 2: know that they're now on the firing line. AI is
- 42:58Speaker 2: going to replace anybody who was just gathering and collating
- 43:02Speaker 2: and you know, passing information up the line. You don't
- 43:05Speaker 2: need that what could be done in a week by
- 43:07Speaker 2: one person can now be done in about twenty seconds
- 43:10Speaker 2: by AI. So there's issues about reliability and things like that,
- 43:14Speaker 2: But you know there are ways around. That point is
- 43:17Speaker 2: it's so much cheaper for the companies that it's almost impossible.
- 43:22Speaker 2: And if your company doesn't do it, guess what your
- 43:26Speaker 2: competitors will, and then they'll underprice you and you'll be
- 43:30Speaker 2: out of business so fast it turns from being something
- 43:34Speaker 2: that you choose to being an absolute necessity. And that
- 43:37Speaker 2: was the same thing companies started relocating outside Europe in
- 43:43Speaker 2: America and Japan. The fact is they, you know, to
- 43:46Speaker 2: keep up with their competitors, they had to to respond
- 43:49Speaker 2: to the pricing pressure. And this is the market. It
- 43:55Speaker 2: doesn't solve things. Actually it could create problems. Not that
- 43:59Speaker 2: i'm again I think the market is really efficient at
- 44:02Speaker 2: the lower level. But in terms of policy, markets are
- 44:05Speaker 2: not about policy. They're about profits. And you can't run
- 44:09Speaker 2: a country on profits because countries don't make profits. They
- 44:13Speaker 2: have people and they are responsible for them, and you
- 44:15Speaker 2: have to take care of them. Give them a safe
- 44:17Speaker 2: place to live, work and play, give them opportunity, give
- 44:22Speaker 2: them a sense of respect, make sure that they're wedded
- 44:26Speaker 2: to the future. And unfortunately a lot of countries are
- 44:30Speaker 2: failing in that regard, and ironically most of them are
- 44:34Speaker 2: the developed countries. Developing countries, despite the fact that they
- 44:38Speaker 2: still have a lot of problems, are a lot more
- 44:40Speaker 2: hopeful about the future than the developed countries. And you know,
- 44:45Speaker 2: that's one hundred and eighty Greek to turn the turn
- 44:49Speaker 2: within the last fifteen to twenty years. And you can
- 44:51Speaker 2: see it quite clearly. Also, the growth rates the developed
- 44:56Speaker 2: countries are about less than half of what the developing
- 45:01Speaker 2: countries are in terms of growth roads rights. Now, developing
- 45:05Speaker 2: countries obviously are starting from a lower bar. You know,
- 45:09Speaker 2: four percent of something very small, it's not as great
- 45:11Speaker 2: as you know, one percent of as something that's very large.
- 45:14Speaker 2: But it just goes that. Year after year, you're seeing
- 45:18Speaker 2: a disparity in growth rates between them, and a lot
- 45:20Speaker 2: of that has to do with the Belton Road initiative.
- 45:23Speaker 2: China's willingness to invest you know, one point and I
- 45:27Speaker 2: think it's one point four trillion dollars since twenty fifteen
- 45:31Speaker 2: has made a huge difference. I mean, what's the n
- 45:37Speaker 2: Bota port in Sri Lanka. You remember that one?
- 45:42Speaker 1: Yeah, that was listed as example of China's debt trap diplomacy,
- 45:47Speaker 1: you know, by some Indian think tank and then he was.
- 45:50Speaker 2: ChIL oh, no, no, not a think tank professor Chilani
- 45:54Speaker 2: who on Indian shows quite often. He invented the word
- 46:02Speaker 2: debt trapped to homelessly and he used Hambu on Tote
- 46:05Speaker 2: Port as the prime example. Well, Lo and behold many
- 46:09Speaker 2: years later, because to develop a port and you don't
- 46:11Speaker 2: open it up and it's like a shopping mall. Everyone ports.
- 46:18Speaker 2: It's taken some years to develop. But now they're actually
- 46:20Speaker 2: expanding the port because there's so much business there and
- 46:22Speaker 2: they're not expanding it slightly, they're expanding it by a third.
- 46:26Speaker 2: And what they did is they did not repeat the
- 46:28Speaker 2: same business that Colombo the report the Port to the
- 46:31Speaker 2: North was doing. They went to roll on roll off
- 46:35Speaker 2: type movement of goods and that has done very well.
- 46:41Speaker 2: Is plus it's it's very well managed now and they have,
- 46:45Speaker 2: you know, very very good logistics in terms of getting
- 46:48Speaker 2: things on and off. A lot of it is you know,
- 46:51Speaker 2: robots and high high tech. There's less people dying because
- 46:57Speaker 2: it's a lot safer when the people are up in
- 46:59Speaker 2: the nice quad controlled air conditioned room pushing things around
- 47:04Speaker 2: with their mice as opposed to trying to man handle
- 47:09Speaker 2: large pieces of cargo. So this is a perfect example,
- 47:14Speaker 2: though of how this narrative that was created mostly in
- 47:20Speaker 2: the United States, that somehow the China was out to
- 47:23Speaker 2: harm the world or there was some sort of nefarious
- 47:28Speaker 2: motives in this. The only thing that is nepharious is that,
- 47:31Speaker 2: you know, the US, by definition, by being an empire,
- 47:35Speaker 2: you know, we always think that we're going to take
- 47:37Speaker 2: advantage of another country, so we assume any other country
- 47:40Speaker 2: that's rising would do the same thing. This is that
- 47:43Speaker 2: kind of guilty thing. I'm a thief, but I know
- 47:45Speaker 2: everyone else is a thief, so therefore I'm just stealing
- 47:49Speaker 2: from them before they steal from me.
- 47:53Speaker 3: The parallel to.
- 47:54Speaker 2: That is, I remember talking to somebody says, I said,
- 47:56Speaker 2: you know, you really believe the place that the world's
- 47:59Speaker 2: a horrible place? And no, he says, yeah, it is.
- 48:01Speaker 2: It's a horrible place, and the only way to get
- 48:04Speaker 2: by is to be more horrible than everybody else. And
- 48:07Speaker 2: he nodded, yeah, yeah, that's the way it is. You know.
- 48:10Speaker 2: I felt sorry for him, because, you know, here here's
- 48:13Speaker 2: somebody who's constructed a world model in his head which
- 48:16Speaker 2: he's never going to get out of. I mean, this
- 48:18Speaker 2: is the strongest prison there is. Once I believe something
- 48:21Speaker 2: all right, I'm not you know, if I say I
- 48:22Speaker 2: can't do it, I'm not going to try. Therefore it
- 48:24Speaker 2: never will happen. Right, So in this case, they build
- 48:28Speaker 2: this word model where it's you know, me against everybody,
- 48:31Speaker 2: and it's very negative. It's hard for them to get
- 48:35Speaker 2: along with their children or have friends or any kind
- 48:37Speaker 2: of meaningful life because they think it's life is horrible
- 48:40Speaker 2: and everybody's horrible just like me. It's just I'm more
- 48:42Speaker 2: horrible than them. It's kind of giving yourself a life
- 48:47Speaker 2: sentence of negativity. And I'm not saying, you know, go
- 48:51Speaker 2: out and get a crystal and you know, say thinks.
- 48:54Speaker 2: I'm just saying that if you believe in if you
- 48:57Speaker 2: if you want hope, have to believe in it. Don't
- 49:00Speaker 2: believe that there's no hope and say, well, I'm a
- 49:02Speaker 2: very pessimistic optimist. Why how is that possible? So, I mean,
- 49:08Speaker 2: it's it's not it's my version of karma that we,
- 49:12Speaker 2: in essence are. We We create our own karma because
- 49:16Speaker 2: we construct the worlds that we're in. And for a
- 49:19Speaker 2: world where I hope there's some hope and I believe
- 49:23Speaker 2: in working towards it, why not. What's the alternative. I
- 49:27Speaker 2: always say, so, how did we get on that diet drive?
- 49:31Speaker 2: I have no idea.
- 49:34Speaker 3: That was great?
- 49:35Speaker 1: Actually, I love it when you just go off and
- 49:37Speaker 1: I just sit here and lessen. I always get a
- 49:40Speaker 1: free education that way.
- 49:42Speaker 3: But I think your are to sleep.
- 49:46Speaker 1: Well.
- 49:46Speaker 3: By bye by oxyms Razor.
- 49:48Speaker 1: I think your explanation of why Donald Trump is doing
- 49:52Speaker 1: what he's doing right now makes perfect sense because now
- 49:56Speaker 1: he's coming always he's just crazy. Instead of addressing the problem,
- 50:01Speaker 1: he's just creating distractions after distractions. This is why we
- 50:05Speaker 1: have ridiculous stories about Pendigon releasing like videotape of aliens
- 50:11Speaker 1: like but I don't I don't think that people buy
- 50:15Speaker 1: that anymore. Though, I don't people buy that anymore because.
- 50:19Speaker 2: I don't know you you you you look like some
- 50:22Speaker 2: of those aliens. I'm not sure you know. Look, he
- 50:28Speaker 2: would do anything to distract attention, and he will continue
- 50:32Speaker 2: to do that. This is an over I mean every day,
- 50:35Speaker 2: just watch anybody watching this, Please get up in the
- 50:38Speaker 2: morning and then just say, okay, what's Donald's latest? All right,
- 50:42Speaker 2: and we'll be like wow, okay, now it makes sense.
- 50:45Speaker 1: But do people don't buy those distractions because like the
- 50:48Speaker 1: alien story right, and.
- 50:52Speaker 2: They hunt it down, they fact check everything. They know
- 50:54Speaker 2: he's lying. Why are you fact checking you? No lies? Well,
- 50:58Speaker 2: and there's.
- 51:01Speaker 3: How are you going to do it?
- 51:02Speaker 1: I look on the social media right when the when
- 51:04Speaker 1: the alien story broke out, every the top comment is also, Okay,
- 51:09Speaker 1: that's great. How about how about what about Epstein files?
- 51:12Speaker 1: How about releasing the Epstein files? Because everybody kind of
- 51:16Speaker 1: catching up to Donald Trump's game.
- 51:19Speaker 3: Now, like, Okay, that is an obvious.
- 51:21Speaker 1: App that's a distraction because he doesn't want to release
- 51:24Speaker 1: Epstein files.
- 51:26Speaker 3: And at the same story, I mean, like.
- 51:28Speaker 1: For at least for me, it's also his accusation of
- 51:32Speaker 1: China manipulating election. I mean that that's so I mean,
- 51:35Speaker 1: that's so obvious. Another like, thank you just throwing out
- 51:39Speaker 1: there to create a distraction. I don't I haven't been
- 51:42Speaker 1: living in the United States for I don't know, like
- 51:45Speaker 1: since the pandemic, So I don't know if people buy that.
- 51:48Speaker 1: But I mean, for for any thinking people.
- 51:51Speaker 3: How can like just how can you still buy that?
- 51:55Speaker 1: Like, like like you said, Donal, why would if China
- 52:00Speaker 1: really did that somehow affected the outcome of twenty twenty
- 52:03Speaker 1: election that you know, unseated Trump and Guy Biden elected.
- 52:08Speaker 1: If that was the case, why didn't Donald Trump bring
- 52:11Speaker 1: this bring this up back then or back in the
- 52:14Speaker 1: in the last election, right, I mean like that.
- 52:17Speaker 2: No, No, it was he said it was all covered up.
- 52:20Speaker 2: I'm declassifying it now. There was many things happening deep state,
- 52:24Speaker 2: all of this type of stuff. Now he hasn't said
- 52:27Speaker 2: who in the deep state. All right, I'm sure he's
- 52:29Speaker 2: going after anybody he doesn't like and calling them deep
- 52:32Speaker 2: state just for doing their job. But I mean, he's
- 52:36Speaker 2: this is all innuendo, all right, he has no facts whatsoever.
- 52:41Speaker 2: He's just throwing it out there to you know, as
- 52:44Speaker 2: I said, to distract people, to make a few people wonder,
- 52:47Speaker 2: well maybe there is something to this. You know how
- 52:50Speaker 2: many pages, oh not thousands of pages? Well, there's three
- 52:53Speaker 2: million pages of Epstein files unaccounted for. You know that
- 52:57Speaker 2: a few hundred thousand pages of old material. There's nothing
- 53:03Speaker 2: that I could see. I went down quickly through the
- 53:06Speaker 2: list of things that they said they're declassifying. Was they
- 53:09Speaker 2: had a list on CNN, and it was like, well,
- 53:13Speaker 2: this is all old stuff. There's nothing new here. Where's
- 53:17Speaker 2: the smoking gun. He's trying to make it that somehow
- 53:20Speaker 2: he didn't know about this. Well, it was publicized that
- 53:24Speaker 2: there were these data leagues in twenty fifteen and twenty seventeen.
- 53:27Speaker 2: So how is that China's fault that you have an
- 53:30Speaker 2: incompetent vendor. That's a real weird one. And yet, if
- 53:39Speaker 2: he really thinks that China has interfered, where was the
- 53:43Speaker 2: I'm going to put tariffs on them. I'm going to
- 53:44Speaker 2: put sanctions on them. Instead, he's going to host she
- 53:48Speaker 2: at a stayed Visit doesn't sound like somebody, you know,
- 53:52Speaker 2: you interfered with my election. Come out over to the house.
- 53:55Speaker 2: Let's have a barbecue.
- 53:57Speaker 1: Oh, that's right, she's coming, she's coming to America.
- 54:02Speaker 2: Well, well, the latest statement from the government, they weren't
- 54:09Speaker 2: amused by this, but basically they shrugged it off. They
- 54:13Speaker 2: just said this is nonsense and things like that. But
- 54:15Speaker 2: they didn't say we're going to start putting sanctions on
- 54:19Speaker 2: somebody or blacklisting anybody or anything like that. But neither
- 54:22Speaker 2: did Trump. And you know, China has a tendency to
- 54:25Speaker 2: only respond to aggressive moves by the US as a
- 54:29Speaker 2: warning that this will not go unanswered. I don't think
- 54:32Speaker 2: you can you know, basically kick us, and we're just
- 54:36Speaker 2: going to stand there and grenache you. That's not the
- 54:38Speaker 2: way the game is going to be played. You kick us,
- 54:40Speaker 2: we'll kick you. And you know, if you want to
- 54:43Speaker 2: keep kicking, we'll keep kicking. And this is exactly what things.
- 54:46Speaker 2: But obviously, when Donald Trump and Cheating Ping met in
- 54:51Speaker 2: Beijing not too long ago, you know, he was saying
- 54:55Speaker 2: wonderful things about Beijing and about cheaching Ping, all of
- 54:59Speaker 2: these types of things, and so was his and our crew.
- 55:04Speaker 2: I mean, the whole cabinet was sticking to the same line,
- 55:06Speaker 2: which is unusual because most of his cabinet absolutely detests
- 55:10Speaker 2: China and they always say China is the problem. But
- 55:13Speaker 2: they didn't. And that means that China figured out some
- 55:16Speaker 2: way of handling him. And I believe firmly that it
- 55:19Speaker 2: was transactional that you said, Donald, you do A, and
- 55:23Speaker 2: will do B. You do C, and we'll do D.
- 55:27Speaker 2: They're working their way through the alphabet, and you know,
- 55:30Speaker 2: Donald Trump, you know, if he has something he wants,
- 55:32Speaker 2: he'll do that. I mean, it's very simple for him
- 55:35Speaker 2: to understand, you have something I want. If I do this,
- 55:39Speaker 2: you'll give me that. Oh okay, let's do that. He
- 55:41Speaker 2: understands that that's not strategy. This is just I'm getting
- 55:44Speaker 2: what I want. So but you know, with the Iranian
- 55:48Speaker 2: war mistakes and things like this, it's just gotten completely
- 55:52Speaker 2: out of control. He's done exactly the opposite of what
- 55:55Speaker 2: he prompts to do it, see exactly. You know, it's
- 55:57Speaker 2: what he ridiculed all the other present eidence for doing
- 56:01Speaker 2: and spending you know, trillions of dollars in the Middle
- 56:04Speaker 2: East and dead bodies and all this kind of stuff
- 56:06Speaker 2: and a useless, stupid war where we get nothing. Now
- 56:10Speaker 2: he's the guy who's waging the same war, so he
- 56:13Speaker 2: can't get away from it. So you know, we can
- 56:15Speaker 2: beat this all day, but it's not gonna change. But
- 56:17Speaker 2: you know, we should really talk about what are the
- 56:20Speaker 2: economic risks and opportunities that are coming forward by this.
- 56:26Speaker 2: You know, what is there opportunities and what are they?
- 56:29Speaker 2: And obviously the politics is pretty much set for the
- 56:33Speaker 2: next two and a half years. Donald Trump is going
- 56:35Speaker 2: to be there or somebody very much like him. There's
- 56:39Speaker 2: talk about maybe a twenty fifth amendment charged by advance,
- 56:44Speaker 2: you know, to basically jettison Trump. Maybe for good reason.
- 56:48Speaker 2: He seems to be getting very his health does not
- 56:51Speaker 2: seem good and mentally he seems a lot more off
- 56:54Speaker 2: balance than usual, But it still would be many of
- 56:58Speaker 2: the same policies. That's not going to change. Politics in
- 57:02Speaker 2: China is not going to change. They see themselves as successful.
- 57:06Speaker 2: They have plenty of challenges. As we recently talked about.
- 57:11Speaker 2: No as a recently released I should say, they had
- 57:14Speaker 2: a much lower growth figure than anticipate, about four point
- 57:18Speaker 2: three percent, but you know, profits improved. They were sending
- 57:23Speaker 2: out less trade goods going out, but at higher margins.
- 57:30Speaker 2: And this is actually something that China wants. It's not
- 57:33Speaker 2: about volume anymore. They really want to talk about the
- 57:37Speaker 2: quality of things going out. And why is quality important?
- 57:40Speaker 2: When you sending out quality, there's a premium, and that
- 57:43Speaker 2: means that you can pay higher wages, you can invest
- 57:46Speaker 2: more into our research and development, and that you are
- 57:50Speaker 2: taking your economy into this kind of tertiary level. So
- 57:53Speaker 2: you know, when I was talking to people here in Beijing,
- 57:56Speaker 2: they're just saying, well, no, this is kind of part
- 57:59Speaker 2: for the course. We do believe that, you know, all
- 58:02Speaker 2: things being equal, if things are stable, we will be
- 58:05Speaker 2: all right this year. But there was a reason that
- 58:07Speaker 2: they gave a sliding scale this time around, because it
- 58:11Speaker 2: is unknown what Trump is going to do, and obviously
- 58:14Speaker 2: the Iranian war could lead to consequences we talked about
- 58:18Speaker 2: in terms of global recession. So given that the politics
- 58:23Speaker 2: are the same, what do companies and individuals do. You
- 58:27Speaker 2: should be looking at industries that are either going to
- 58:33Speaker 2: do very well in China, right and those those can
- 58:37Speaker 2: be you know, the high tech industries, some of them
- 58:40Speaker 2: are you know, they're a little frothy, uh. You know,
- 58:43Speaker 2: companies that have huge valuations have not proved themselves. They
- 58:46Speaker 2: do not have the revenues to justify it. But they'reforeward looking.
- 58:50Speaker 2: But there are many other areas where technology especially is booming,
- 58:56Speaker 2: and there are opportunities. There's also supply very simple things.
- 59:00Speaker 2: You know, look at the way China is managing its
- 59:04Speaker 2: airline industry right. They are building these airliners. They're being
- 59:11Speaker 2: very cautious. They could roll out lots of planes, but
- 59:14Speaker 2: they're not. They're trying to prove them. They're putting slowly
- 59:17Speaker 2: into the market. They want to make sure that they're
- 59:19Speaker 2: safe and there's no accidents. They don't want a Boeing
- 59:22Speaker 2: type issue. And those, you know, you can't maybe invest
- 59:28Speaker 2: directly in avic but it's own, but there are a
- 59:31Speaker 2: lot of suppliers out there that are doing it. The
- 59:34Speaker 2: difference between the way that China manufactures and Europe and America,
- 59:39Speaker 2: if you haven't figured it out by now, a hell
- 59:41Speaker 2: a lot more efficient. And it's estimated that planes will
- 59:45Speaker 2: be about half the price to keep in the air,
- 59:48Speaker 2: and they'll be less expensive from the very beginning. So
- 59:51Speaker 2: when you in an airline situation, if my expenses are
- 59:56Speaker 2: half of what your expenses are to keep a plane
- 59:58Speaker 2: in the air, you're going to go out of business literally. Okay,
- 1:00:05Speaker 2: So it's not a question whether you like Chinese planes
- 1:00:08Speaker 2: or not. But if Chinese planes are able to achieve
- 1:00:11Speaker 2: these numbers, the market will do the rest, all right,
- 1:00:15Speaker 2: because unless a country is willing to subsidize, there are
- 1:00:19Speaker 2: lines to this would be a massive subsidy on a
- 1:00:23Speaker 2: yearly basis just to maintain these planes that are more
- 1:00:26Speaker 2: expensive and more expensive keep up in the air. You know,
- 1:00:31Speaker 2: it's over with. It's just like evs. You know, everyone says, oh,
- 1:00:35Speaker 2: we should buy American evs or you know European EV's. Well,
- 1:00:39Speaker 2: guess what times are tough? People are buying the ev
- 1:00:42Speaker 2: that they like at the price that they can afford.
- 1:00:45Speaker 2: And that's reality. On an individual basis, they would love
- 1:00:48Speaker 2: to perhaps buy American or buy European or whatever. But
- 1:00:52Speaker 2: when they get in the showroom, it comes down to,
- 1:00:55Speaker 2: this is a good price, honey, and I like this car.
- 1:00:57Speaker 2: We looked at the other one. It's more expensive. I
- 1:01:00Speaker 2: don't like it as much. Guess what decision is made? Right?
- 1:01:04Speaker 2: So there are many things, but really what you're looking
- 1:01:07Speaker 2: here is a split supply chain. You go all over
- 1:01:11Speaker 2: the world. I mean, you know, Laysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, all
- 1:01:15Speaker 2: these countries, Uh, they're part of a China plus one
- 1:01:21Speaker 2: because many of the inputs that you know, if if
- 1:01:24Speaker 2: I'm producing clothes or shoes in Vietnam or anywhere, well,
- 1:01:31Speaker 2: guess what where there's a rubber come from in China? Okay,
- 1:01:34Speaker 2: where there's shoelaces come from China. Where's the leather come from?
- 1:01:37Speaker 2: Or the synthetic material China? Where As it may China,
- 1:01:40Speaker 2: even shoelaces in China. Now it can be put together
- 1:01:44Speaker 2: in that country and then it can be shipped to
- 1:01:46Speaker 2: the US without you know, as much tariffs on it,
- 1:01:49Speaker 2: et cetera. And this is this is what a lot
- 1:01:51Speaker 2: of countries are doing. So far from destroying globalization, what
- 1:01:58Speaker 2: you're having now is regionalization. And you know r CEP.
- 1:02:03Speaker 2: This is this is this trade grouping which represents forty
- 1:02:06Speaker 2: percent of the world's population. It's growing, all right, and
- 1:02:11Speaker 2: it continues, and it's outpacing in terms of its overall growth.
- 1:02:14Speaker 2: It's outpacing the developed countries. And this is what is
- 1:02:20Speaker 2: going to happen. So people should pay attention to this
- 1:02:22Speaker 2: kind of dual situation. The US can't walk away from
- 1:02:26Speaker 2: its four point three trillion dollars worth of imports and
- 1:02:29Speaker 2: if you start looking at the trade numbers, and Donald
- 1:02:31Speaker 2: Trump doesn't want to talk about it anymore. Remember when
- 1:02:34Speaker 2: he first came in to office. I'm going to get
- 1:02:36Speaker 2: rid of the deficit. Right, It's going to take me
- 1:02:38Speaker 2: five minutes. It'll be easy. Well, last last month they
- 1:02:43Speaker 2: hit a record depth with China. So I mean that
- 1:02:48Speaker 2: just nothing he does works, but no one goes back
- 1:02:51Speaker 2: and holds him accountable for it. But the reality is
- 1:02:56Speaker 2: that it will continue and that people should be thinking about,
- 1:03:00Speaker 2: you know, what are the most efficient and effective ways
- 1:03:05Speaker 2: of dealing with this. Now there's going to be a
- 1:03:07Speaker 2: sea change when Donald Trump goes, obviously many of the
- 1:03:11Speaker 2: tariffs will go away and things like that. So people
- 1:03:13Speaker 2: have to separate their ideas between short term all right,
- 1:03:18Speaker 2: how you get you know, how do I make money
- 1:03:19Speaker 2: over the next two and a half years, and then
- 1:03:21Speaker 2: long term, how do I remain flexible enough to anticipate
- 1:03:25Speaker 2: the changes that will be coming after Donald Trump leaves,
- 1:03:28Speaker 2: because there will be a massive reaction, and quite frankly,
- 1:03:30Speaker 2: there might be another massive reaction four years after that.
- 1:03:34Speaker 2: The one thing we see is that as countries become
- 1:03:38Speaker 2: have more problems, the pendulum swings from one side to
- 1:03:43Speaker 2: the other. And you see this quite clearly in Argentina.
- 1:03:46Speaker 2: I mean, my goodness, yes he has solved inflation because
- 1:03:52Speaker 2: more than half the country is under the poverty line.
- 1:03:57Speaker 2: As they say, what cost? Right it? People should start
- 1:04:03Speaker 2: looking at the world as continuing to have dual, dual streams,
- 1:04:11Speaker 2: all right, and they're going to center around these global behemoths, uh,
- 1:04:16Speaker 2: you know, basically Europe, America and to a certain extent,
- 1:04:21Speaker 2: Russia and the United States. But they won't be direct.
- 1:04:26Speaker 2: Everything will be indirect. It increases costs, doesn't decrease them.
- 1:04:30Speaker 2: Makes shippers happy because they're making a couple of stops
- 1:04:33Speaker 2: instead of just you know, A to B. But it's
- 1:04:37Speaker 2: it's not going to help the world, but you can
- 1:04:41Speaker 2: bet that it probably will be the future. And talking
- 1:04:44Speaker 2: of which, I don't know if you saw yesterday that
- 1:04:47Speaker 2: Teaching Ping announced a new initiative to start talking about
- 1:04:51Speaker 2: AI AI governance as it's going forward. I just just
- 1:04:57Speaker 2: before you call today, I was doing a an essay
- 1:05:02Speaker 2: on that, and I have a slightly different take on it. Uh,
- 1:05:06Speaker 2: And it does have something to do with, you know,
- 1:05:08Speaker 2: how the world is to develop. Artificial intelligence is on
- 1:05:12Speaker 2: everybody's mind. And you know, obviously as we talked about
- 1:05:14Speaker 2: people concerned about their jobs. I did a debate recently
- 1:05:18Speaker 2: where with Qinghua and Bada students, and the one side
- 1:05:21Speaker 2: was arguing, they said, okay, you you don't don't you
- 1:05:25Speaker 2: should regulate. A government should be involved after innovation, and
- 1:05:29Speaker 2: then the other side was saying, no government needs to
- 1:05:31Speaker 2: be involved before innovation. Well, you know, a lot of
- 1:05:35Speaker 2: debates like to present things where the switch is on
- 1:05:38Speaker 2: or off. The fact is it's neither, you know, innovation
- 1:05:43Speaker 2: and regulation. It's a complicated two step and the government
- 1:05:49Speaker 2: has to look out for the you know, for the
- 1:05:52Speaker 2: interests of the people, and private industry is obviously interested
- 1:05:57Speaker 2: in innovation and making money. They're not opposite that they're
- 1:06:01Speaker 2: just different ideas and you have to put them together
- 1:06:04Speaker 2: in a way that makes sense. So saying that it's
- 1:06:06Speaker 2: either one way or the other, it doesn't make any sense.
- 1:06:08Speaker 2: But why am I talking about this Because I think
- 1:06:11Speaker 2: there's a fundamental misunderstanding. People talk about AI models, they
- 1:06:15Speaker 2: talk about open versus closed, American versus Chinese, and they
- 1:06:20Speaker 2: talk about all the capabilities. But you know, AI doesn't
- 1:06:23Speaker 2: mean anything if you don't have data, and I mean
- 1:06:27Speaker 2: clean data. There's an old saying and everybody's heard it,
- 1:06:30Speaker 2: garbage in, garbage out. And the fact is the world
- 1:06:35Speaker 2: today it's a game. There are now companies that are
- 1:06:39Speaker 2: in essence poisoning the well as I call it. They're
- 1:06:43Speaker 2: generating huge numbers of huge amounts of data that it
- 1:06:49Speaker 2: might not actually be false, but it's shaded data. Why
- 1:06:53Speaker 2: because when the lms learn, all right, they cannot separate
- 1:06:58Speaker 2: thanks they kind of weigh data. They say, well, this
- 1:07:00Speaker 2: was mentioned twenty thousand times, and this was mentioned thirty
- 1:07:02Speaker 2: thousand times, so I'll give it a little bit more weight.
- 1:07:05Speaker 2: This was mentioned thirty thousand times. It doesn't have independent thinking,
- 1:07:10Speaker 2: and it doesn't have the ability to verify information and
- 1:07:14Speaker 2: look for information from different sources. But at some point
- 1:07:17Speaker 2: it just kind of wastes them because it doesn't have
- 1:07:19Speaker 2: direct knowledge. It's not sentient. Even if it was sentient,
- 1:07:23Speaker 2: we can't actually it can see through CCTV cameras, but
- 1:07:28Speaker 2: it can't touch, and it doesn't have that kind of
- 1:07:31Speaker 2: sentient understanding. People say, oh, someday it will well, we'll see,
- 1:07:36Speaker 2: But the fact is you have to have data, and
- 1:07:38Speaker 2: I think the world is taking the wrong look at this.
- 1:07:44Speaker 2: What we need to do is have secure data that
- 1:07:48Speaker 2: people can rely on because if you're applying, if you're
- 1:07:53Speaker 2: using that data with your AI, you're going to get
- 1:07:56Speaker 2: better answers. Obviously, how you collect that and then how
- 1:08:02Speaker 2: you disseminate there's there's three interests when it comes to data.
- 1:08:06Speaker 2: You know, Carl, you don't want your personal information out there, right.
- 1:08:13Speaker 3: We won't get a secret. We're not going to get secrets.
- 1:08:18Speaker 2: I've been browsing and obviously there you know, countries are
- 1:08:24Speaker 2: interested very much in their state security and there are
- 1:08:27Speaker 2: certain types of information they see as sensitive. And it
- 1:08:29Speaker 2: does make sense I don't want to give that information out.
- 1:08:32Speaker 2: But then weighed against privacy and security is utility. You know,
- 1:08:38Speaker 2: there's a lot of information that if we have it,
- 1:08:41Speaker 2: we can solve things in terms of health, climate change,
- 1:08:45Speaker 2: so many things, I mean, traffic, all sorts of things, weather,
- 1:08:49Speaker 2: you know, there's so many things that you can do
- 1:08:51Speaker 2: with this which would be extremely beneficial. So the question
- 1:08:54Speaker 2: is how you do it. And what I proposed is
- 1:08:57Speaker 2: that they create what I call a sandbox, and all
- 1:09:01Speaker 2: the verified information goes into the sandbox, and then you
- 1:09:06Speaker 2: can ask the sandbox questions and depending on the level
- 1:09:10Speaker 2: of approval, you can get information up to a certain
- 1:09:13Speaker 2: to a certain level. So if I'm doing, uh, you know,
- 1:09:18Speaker 2: I'm doing a health of things, and I want to know,
- 1:09:20Speaker 2: you know, how many people had cancer, and I want
- 1:09:22Speaker 2: to divide it into different areas as well, it will
- 1:09:25Speaker 2: give me that information. It won't give me the names
- 1:09:27Speaker 2: of the people or their addresses or anything about them,
- 1:09:31Speaker 2: but it can it can create that information so that
- 1:09:34Speaker 2: I can use it all right for my medical studies
- 1:09:37Speaker 2: to try to solve why this is happening. We can
- 1:09:40Speaker 2: also get DNA information, but like I said, there's no
- 1:09:44Speaker 2: tracing it back to any individual. And the same thing
- 1:09:46Speaker 2: is true about demographic information. Uh. More broadly, that might
- 1:09:52Speaker 2: be considered sensitive at a you know, a national level,
- 1:09:57Speaker 2: except if it is you know, only released to the
- 1:10:01Speaker 2: extent that is necessary or useful or allowed. Obviously these
- 1:10:06Speaker 2: will be treated more like utility. My thought is that
- 1:10:13Speaker 2: data is more like water, more like electricity. It's something
- 1:10:17Speaker 2: that is absolutely necessary. If you do not have clean
- 1:10:20Speaker 2: water and you drink it, you can get sick, right,
- 1:10:24Speaker 2: And the same thing is true of data and electricity.
- 1:10:27Speaker 2: If your electricity is inconsistent, not of a high quality,
- 1:10:31Speaker 2: goes up and down. You know, yeah, your factory is
- 1:10:35Speaker 2: not going to work very well, or you have to
- 1:10:36Speaker 2: put in extra equipment in order to make sure that
- 1:10:39Speaker 2: the electriccy is stable. So these are the types of
- 1:10:43Speaker 2: things that I think people that governments should be looking at.
- 1:10:47Speaker 2: How do you create systems that gather accurate knowledge? How
- 1:10:50Speaker 2: do you put that information into a sort of a capsule,
- 1:10:55Speaker 2: virtual capsule which no one can get into. They can
- 1:10:58Speaker 2: have queries, but they can't have the actual information. Today,
- 1:11:01Speaker 2: the information is copied and it's sent from one group
- 1:11:04Speaker 2: to another, or they have breaches and they grab it
- 1:11:06Speaker 2: and all of a sudden it's very very public, or
- 1:11:09Speaker 2: people are using it for at first purposes. But if
- 1:11:13Speaker 2: you have something where you can only make queries and
- 1:11:16Speaker 2: it has to be approved, I think it's a much
- 1:11:19Speaker 2: better approach to making sure that AI actually does what
- 1:11:22Speaker 2: it's supposed to do. Otherwise, you know, right now, the
- 1:11:25Speaker 2: biggest problem the way they'd have these hallucinations that AI
- 1:11:29Speaker 2: does is because so much of the of the content
- 1:11:34Speaker 2: that's being generated today is in fact made by AI.
- 1:11:38Speaker 2: So it's kind of stewing in its own juices right now.
- 1:11:43Speaker 2: That's not good, and that leads to adverse consequences, And
- 1:11:46Speaker 2: the only way you can solve it is to have
- 1:11:49Speaker 2: a data first approach, and then once you have the
- 1:11:52Speaker 2: data first approach, then you can have conventions about how
- 1:11:57Speaker 2: that data could be used, as I said, for you
- 1:11:59Speaker 2: to purposes without compromising people's personal information or state security.
- 1:12:06Speaker 2: So I'm hoping that people will think a little bit
- 1:12:09Speaker 2: about this. Talking about what AI could do, given the
- 1:12:13Speaker 2: fact that it's increasingly really lying dirty information is something
- 1:12:19Speaker 2: that we were going to have to address, and it
- 1:12:21Speaker 2: would be better addressed if it was done on a
- 1:12:23Speaker 2: global basis. And that's why I really respected what Chi
- 1:12:25Speaker 2: Jing Pain was doing and you know, think about a
- 1:12:29Speaker 2: carl In the morning, we have Donald Trump saying China
- 1:12:34Speaker 2: stole the election. Be afraid, be very afraid.
- 1:12:38Speaker 5: You know, the commedies are coming, all this stuff and things,
- 1:12:42Speaker 5: and a few hours later you have Chi Jinping talking
- 1:12:44Speaker 5: about the future about how important global governmance is of AI.
- 1:12:51Speaker 2: You know that there's hope that this is a positive thing,
- 1:12:53Speaker 2: but we have to we have to address it as adults.
- 1:12:56Speaker 2: We have to understand it. And to me, that kind
- 1:12:59Speaker 2: of encapsulated the differences between the East and the West
- 1:13:02Speaker 2: right now, is that the West it's always about fear,
- 1:13:07Speaker 2: you know, and you know, be afraid and paranoia and
- 1:13:10Speaker 2: things like this. It's negative, zero sum game, whereas increasingly
- 1:13:15Speaker 2: in the East it's and I'm not just talking about China,
- 1:13:18Speaker 2: you know, in Malaysia, Indonesia, all these places. They say, no,
- 1:13:21Speaker 2: this is a time of hope. We have challenges to
- 1:13:25Speaker 2: navigate to your political challenges. No one wants to jump
- 1:13:29Speaker 2: on one side or another side, because it's not about science.
- 1:13:31Speaker 2: It's about helping your country. And helping your country in
- 1:13:35Speaker 2: many cases depends on having a network as has done well.
- 1:13:40Speaker 2: Why because asion is their trade group. Do they have
- 1:13:44Speaker 2: problems internally, absolutely, but asion has done better as a
- 1:13:50Speaker 2: group than they could have individually. And that is the
- 1:13:54Speaker 2: you know, the lesson of these things is that increasingly
- 1:13:58Speaker 2: you there are opportunities there and you have to see them.
- 1:14:03Speaker 2: And it's not about the old way of for you
- 1:14:05Speaker 2: were against you. It's not about saying China is always
- 1:14:08Speaker 2: right or China is always wrong. It's this, how can
- 1:14:11Speaker 2: we work together, How can we have a mutually beneficial
- 1:14:14Speaker 2: relationship where I can help my people. I hope prosperity, jobs, opportunity,
- 1:14:23Speaker 2: nothing wrong with that. And you know, if you're doing
- 1:14:26Speaker 2: in a way that says, let's this can be arranged
- 1:14:29Speaker 2: on a win win, you can win, we can win,
- 1:14:31Speaker 2: there's nothing wrong with that. And I'm hoping going forward
- 1:14:35Speaker 2: that that increasingly will be the response because right now,
- 1:14:40Speaker 2: I see, you know, we're in the United States. We're
- 1:14:43Speaker 2: up to our same old thing. We'd love to use
- 1:14:45Speaker 2: Japan and Taiwan and the Philippines as kind of the
- 1:14:50Speaker 2: proxies in some sort of low intensity warfare or whatever
- 1:14:54Speaker 2: against a China and very much along the lines that,
- 1:15:00Speaker 2: and you know, being pushed by people like Aldridge Colby
- 1:15:03Speaker 2: and the rest of them, this kind of real politique
- 1:15:06Speaker 2: group that says, you know, if we just destroy them,
- 1:15:09Speaker 2: we'll do better. I don't think so. And I don't
- 1:15:12Speaker 2: think that a lot of the people who push the
- 1:15:14Speaker 2: stuff understand the complexity and depth of into relations. Is
- 1:15:20Speaker 2: if China were go to wait, were to go away tomorrow,
- 1:15:24Speaker 2: you know, in chaos, what happened to the world, thirty
- 1:15:27Speaker 2: percent of the production of the world would disappear. How
- 1:15:30Speaker 2: is it going to help America? Right? How's that going
- 1:15:33Speaker 2: to help the world. And it's not just that production disappear.
- 1:15:37Speaker 2: China is a consumer. How is that going to affect it?
- 1:15:41Speaker 2: So this idea that somehow I get ahead of by
- 1:15:44Speaker 2: killing or curtailing you, I don't believe it. I do
- 1:15:48Speaker 2: believe that there is a win win situation and that
- 1:15:51Speaker 2: cooperation far aways conflict when it comes to making a
- 1:15:56Speaker 2: better society.
- 1:15:58Speaker 1: In fact, China is actually saving the world right now.
- 1:16:02Speaker 1: China has voluntarily kurtel its import of oil by fifty
- 1:16:08Speaker 1: million barrels a day.
- 1:16:10Speaker 3: That's huge.
- 1:16:11Speaker 1: That's the only reason right now that oil price hasn't
- 1:16:15Speaker 1: reached stratosphere right now after Trump's restarted the war, because
- 1:16:20Speaker 1: China took this drastic cut of oil import So that
- 1:16:24Speaker 1: created the slack in the world oil market, and that
- 1:16:28Speaker 1: was especially beneficial for countries in the global souse because
- 1:16:32Speaker 1: you know, rich countries United States, Europe, Japan, they can
- 1:16:35Speaker 1: always outbid the other poor countries to get access to
- 1:16:39Speaker 1: the limited oil. It's the countries like Indonesia, Philippines, India,
- 1:16:44Speaker 1: all these countries in the global souse that will suffer
- 1:16:48Speaker 1: when the oil price rise uncontrollably.
- 1:16:51Speaker 3: So I love it when you end this hopeful note.
- 1:16:56Speaker 1: So I mean this. I like that.
- 1:16:58Speaker 3: So let's end on this hopeful note.
- 1:17:04Speaker 2: You know, I wish everybody well, I just wish we
- 1:17:06Speaker 2: could do better. Yeah, I don't know. I mean being
- 1:17:11Speaker 2: what's the alternative to optimism? Right?
- 1:17:14Speaker 3: Exactly what?
- 1:17:16Speaker 2: We can be realistic about it in the situations, but
- 1:17:20Speaker 2: there's always got to be some hope at the end
- 1:17:22Speaker 2: of the at the road. We have to see some
- 1:17:24Speaker 2: light at the end of the tunnel, and hopefully it's
- 1:17:26Speaker 2: not a locomotive coming at us.
- 1:17:32Speaker 1: That note, if people want to follow you, I know,
- 1:17:35Speaker 1: where would they go?
- 1:17:37Speaker 2: Asian narratives substack? Okay, so on substack to look up
- 1:17:44Speaker 2: Asian narratives dot stug substack and I put I scribble
- 1:17:50Speaker 2: probably a couple of times a week. I put out
- 1:17:53Speaker 2: some different things. More recently, I'm doing much more about
- 1:17:56Speaker 2: political risk and opportunity because, as I said, the politics,
- 1:18:02Speaker 2: I can say whatever I want about Donald Trump and
- 1:18:05Speaker 2: how much I dislike what he's doing, but it's not
- 1:18:07Speaker 2: going to change. So right now, I want to concentrate,
- 1:18:11Speaker 2: as you do, on something positive. And I think the
- 1:18:14Speaker 2: positive things are you know, as I said, culturally, there's
- 1:18:18Speaker 2: people to people, diplomacy, the number of people that have
- 1:18:21Speaker 2: come to Beijing who I've met and have been completely
- 1:18:24Speaker 2: blown away, they said, this is you know, the information
- 1:18:27Speaker 2: we get is completely wrong. This place is great, it's wonderful.
- 1:18:32Speaker 2: It's much better than we And then on the economic opportunity,
- 1:18:37Speaker 2: I think the only glue that can hold a lot
- 1:18:40Speaker 2: of these countries together is joint economic opportunity. And I'm
- 1:18:45Speaker 2: really hoping that there are ways, and I've been talking
- 1:18:48Speaker 2: about the ways in which small medium sized business enterprises
- 1:18:52Speaker 2: using digital tools can now start getting involved in the
- 1:18:57Speaker 2: international market. To me, this is the blue ocean. You
- 1:19:03Speaker 2: have so much creativity, so many specialized products and services
- 1:19:08Speaker 2: that can be offered by smaller entities, and this helps
- 1:19:12Speaker 2: the Global South because Global seuth doesn't have these large companies.
- 1:19:17Speaker 2: They don't have behemoths who can continually fail but make money.
- 1:19:21Speaker 2: They know they need to find customers, they need to
- 1:19:24Speaker 2: get their goods to them or their services offered, and
- 1:19:27Speaker 2: then they need to get paid. And now, for the
- 1:19:30Speaker 2: first time, you have these opportunities to find find customers
- 1:19:36Speaker 2: on the internet, the logistics to deliver whatever it is
- 1:19:40Speaker 2: that you have that they want, and then the payment
- 1:19:43Speaker 2: platforms which makes it very simple and efficient to get paid.
- 1:19:48Speaker 2: You don't need letters of credit and banks, the lawyers, accountants,
- 1:19:53Speaker 2: all sorts of specialists telling you about the trade restrictions.
- 1:19:56Speaker 2: You can get all that through an ai uh and
- 1:19:59Speaker 2: this I'm hoping will facilitate more business and trade and
- 1:20:03Speaker 2: allow a lot of these smaller entities, especially in the
- 1:20:06Speaker 2: Global South, to be successful, to earn good wages, to
- 1:20:11Speaker 2: kind of even out this uneven playing field that has
- 1:20:14Speaker 2: been created by oligarchical corporations and governments.
- 1:20:21Speaker 1: Yeah, this is great. Thank you very much in Art
- 1:20:25Speaker 1: for taking the time to speak to us. And oh yeah,
- 1:20:31Speaker 1: I always have pleasures for people who are watching us
- 1:20:35Speaker 1: in our Tengan ladies and gentlemen, make sure you go
- 1:20:38Speaker 1: follow him on substack and unci next time.
- 1:20:42Speaker 2: Bye bye,