Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Is CLARITY Finally Dead?🚨Senate Expects Failure

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Is CLARITY Finally Dead?🚨Senate Expects Failure · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Is Clarity Act set to fail? Guys, we're going to
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: break that down for you today. You've probably heard me
• 0:04
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• 0:14
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• 0:34
  Speaker 1: jump over to this tweet right here to kind of
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: lead this off. If you look at all the things
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: that are happening this week, you've got PPI coming in,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: CPI coming in, Clarity Act coming in on the 15th.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: And then the Fed decision the day after that, and
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: this is now with hike odds at around 60%. So
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: a lot of brewing that could be impacting the market.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: So I want to go to a clip real quick
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: that kind of explains that if this were going to
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: get passed, it's very unusual, in fact rare, that this
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: would happen so close to midterms.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 1:04
  Speaker 3: It basically exempts the president from any kind of ethical constraints,
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: and that's just not going to fly in the Democratic caucus.
• 1:12
  Speaker 4: These companies can go to Singapore, Switzerland, the UAE, and
• 1:18
  Speaker 4: have a well-understood, clear set of regulations.
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: JOHN YANG A Senate test vote is locked in. I
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: think we can get this bill over the finish line
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: and hopefully get more than 60 votes come September 15.
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: JOHN YANG But it's rare to pass a major regulatory
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: measure this close to the midterms. And if Democrats win
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: in November, that could create friction with the White House.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: So there you have it, guys. This is heating up
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: in a sense that maybe clarity is on the ropes.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: In fact, if you look at the frustrations that are
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: coming in from the industry, well, take a look at
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: this and you can kind of see what I'm talking about.
• 1:56
  Speaker 5: We just heard that the house cut two weeks from
• 1:58
  Speaker 5: its schedule. The final two weeks of its September schedule canceled,
• 2:03
  Speaker 5: which is devastating for clarity. It's not looking great, which
• 2:08
  Speaker 5: is obviously very frustrating for the industry, for Because we've
• 2:13
  Speaker 5: heard future-proof again and again, over and over from both
• 2:15
  Speaker 5: the CFTC and the SEC. But the three of us
• 2:18
  Speaker 5: definitely know that the best way you future-proof things is legislation,
• 2:22
  Speaker 5: because it's very difficult to amend or to undo legislation.
• 2:28
  Speaker 5: It's much easier to change rulemaking or guidance, which is
• 2:32
  Speaker 5: a lot of what we're seeing now.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: All right, so you can see there's frustrations boiling across
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: the industry. And of course, the other area that plays
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: into this is still why. Well, the decision still is
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: getting to the point now where Republicans are coming in
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: and warning the crypto market that this is actually going
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: to not pass. And it's all boiling down to these
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: ethics rule. This is coming in from one of the
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: Republican senators. If the Republicans are already saying this, they
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: are setting up the market for sure. Other things you
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: have to look at is this puts everything on a
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: roadmap now that could go to regulation in November. This
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: would happen after the election, the midterms. And with that
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: taking place, you're going to have a completely different makeup,
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: I think, within the administration. And what's going to be
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: happening there, I think, is that the Democrats are going
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: to end up taking, you know, a win here over
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: the Republicans. And because of what's going to happen, most
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: likely in the midterms, if you look at the clarity
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: odds right now, they are continuing to dive. This is
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: on the one day. This is course over the last week,
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: holding it right now at 16 percent. So not heavy.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Going forward, I've got another clip here that will go
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: a little bit further into why this vote doesn't come together.
• 3:48
  Speaker 6: My probability that cloture succeeds on September 15th is 5%.
• 3:52
  Speaker 6: That's almost no chance. Republicans hold 53 seats. If all
• 3:58
  Speaker 6: 53 vote yes, cloture needs seven Democrats. Hawley and Moran
• 4:01
  Speaker 6: are public no votes over yield, which puts it at nine.
• 4:05
  Speaker 6: Tillis has said he votes no without better ethics provisions.
• 4:09
  Speaker 6: That's 10%. Senator McConnell of Kentucky is still recovering from
• 4:13
  Speaker 6: his fall, and Senator Gallego's Republican count suggests a few
• 4:17
  Speaker 6: more no votes. I have two named, he said three
• 4:20
  Speaker 6: to five. The count of Senate Democrats who have publicly
• 4:23
  Speaker 6: committed to yes on the floor is zero.
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: 5% is generous.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: There you have it, guys, the way that that is countdown.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: And of course, this has been kind of our position
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: and looking at the ethics issue being one of the
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: biggest challenges. Now you've got Senator Lummis, I think now
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: throwing last minute Hail Marys up. And she simply says,
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: if clarity doesn't pass this Congress, the next real opportunity
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: to bring market structure is in 2030. This would be
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: in the next election for president. So All of this
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: changes everything. Of course, will this even matter? Many people
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: are pointing to the SEC and the CFTC as rulemaking
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: could be the guidance that the market needs. When you
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: look at the speed in which institutions are still moving,
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: I just don't necessarily see this going any other way.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Visa is now officially supporting 160 stable coins in terms
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: of their linked card programs. That is huge when you
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: look at the adoption curve that we're seeing by major
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: financial organizations such as Visa. Others that you have to
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: look at right now is Ethereum is actually going hard
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: on this in the sense that you can actually do
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: transactions without even holding ETH. You'll be able to pay
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: for those transactions. Stablecoin, this is all a very positive move,
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: I think, for blockchain in general. Getting this across the line, though,
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: could still come this year, but it may come under
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: a Democrat House-led House and possibly even Democrat Senate going
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: into the end of the year. If you look at Ethereum,
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: you've got BM & R and Fundstrat now holding 4.9%
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: of the entire ETH supply. That is significant, 97% of
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: the way of its goal in just 15 months. Other
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: things that are happening right here that I think are
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: interesting is that you have so much commitment coming in
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: from institutions. And this is in the sense that we'll
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: see large asset managers, including ARK, BlackRock, and a handful
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: of others announced their tokenized security products. We've already talked
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: about this quite a bit at length. But I think
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: the other thing, considering that we have clarity just in
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: a week, we anticipate right now whether it's on a
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: fail to pass, these innovation exemptions for tokenized and perpetual
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: futures are going to roll out anyway shortly thereafter. So that, again,
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: still points to a market that is going to have
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: two upsides. One, it's going to have clarity If it
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: doesn't pass, because at least you know now and the Senate,
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: or I should say the SEC and the CFTC can
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: get to work, and it may restructure the Senate in
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: a way to where they get a bill that could
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: still come in at the end of the year. Again,
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: the market, I think, is already primed for this. Other
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: things that you got to look at right here, this
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: puts the total count up at about 109% over the
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: last 30 days and 25% since May. All of this
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: is on the total number of tokenized asset holders out there.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: What this tells me, guys, is that we're going to
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: see a continued acceleration of adoption in terms of real-world
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: assets and what this might mean for blockchain coming down
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: the pipe on traditional finance and even BlackRock. iBits clients
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: now bought another $ 117 million of Bitcoin on Friday. You
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: can kind of see the diagram there. This is getting
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: real when you look at the acquisition layer and the
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: amount of adoption in a time right now where clarity exists.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Looks as though it's not going to happen. Further on,
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: you've got Michael Saylor doing another purchase of, of course, Bitcoin,
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: but not of MicroStrategy. So the real question is, when
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: does he buy back MicroStrategy? Watch for that very closely.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: Other points I want to get at that boils down
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: to where all of this is coming from, and that
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: is in reference to energy pricing. And all of this
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: is significant if oil breaks $ 100 and stays there. And
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: I think the Fed's inflation problem gets a lot worse
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: if that does occur. So if you look at the
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: Fed's decision, it is getting tighter and tighter on an
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: increase and a no change coming down to pretty much
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: a split decision. You've got 53% as of today that
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: we get a 25 bps increase. So it's come back
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: up on the chart slightly and a no change holding
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: at 46. Let's go to a clip because this will
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: get into a little bit of whether or not a
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: rate hike could actually happen.
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 8:39
  Speaker 7: So I think equities benefit from earnings. And until I
• 8:44
  Speaker 7: see interest rate risk turning into something bigger, like credit risk,
• 8:50
  Speaker 7: like equity risk, I.
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: Think earnings provide a shield for equities. What do you
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: think he's going to do? And what do you think
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: he should do? So I don't know what he's going
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: to do.
• 9:02
  Speaker 7: I know the market thinks there's a 60% probability that
• 9:05
  Speaker 7: he's going to hike by 25 basis points, he being
• 9:07
  Speaker 7: the FOMC, to be clear.
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: Right. If I was sitting on the FOMC, I would
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: argue for no hike. You argue for no hike?
• 9:15
  Speaker 7: I would argue for no hike. I would point to
• 9:17
  Speaker 7: stable inflation expectation. I would point to the productivity impact
• 9:22
  Speaker 7: of what's going on in AI and other innovations. And
• 9:26
  Speaker 7: I would also point to the fact that what is
• 9:30
  Speaker 7: driving inflation right now is insensitive to higher rates. And
• 9:35
  Speaker 7: the risk is that you tip over the housing market
• 9:37
  Speaker 7: even more.
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: So I think Mohammed and I are on the same
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: page is that you tip over the housing market. That's
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: one of the concerns I have with a hike. And
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: I don't think there's enough there. And even if you
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: go back and look at the poly market, if you
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: like that, it's still kind of a split decision. And
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: I think the impact still leans into Trump still wanting
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: Warsh to cut. The likelihood is this is going to
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: be a pause, but we'll see. It's coming up very soon.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: We're going to be covering that live. If you guys
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: are not subscribed to the show right now, do it
• 10:08
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• 10:09
  Speaker 1: notification when we go live on the FOMC because this
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: will be one of the biggest meetings maybe this year.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: So stay tuned. If you like this video, hit like
• 10:25
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• 10:28
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