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Disney Poised To Explode At End Of Year: Porter Bibb · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penel podcast. I'm Paul swing you,
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: along with my co host Lisa Brahma wits. Each day
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  Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for
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  Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg penl podcast on Apple
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  Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. Disney reported worse than expected results
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: and the parks and resorts, one of their you know,
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: most dependable businesses, came in a little bit short. To
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: get the latest on what's going on at Disney as
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  Speaker 1: they make this big pivot from or to streaming. We
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  Speaker 1: welcome our good friend Porter Bibby's, a managing partner at
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Media Tech Capital Partenacy drains us here in our Bloomberg
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Interactive broker studio support a kind of an ugly quarter
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: last night, stocks trading off. What do you what's the
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: key takeaway for you? Well, the market hadn't digested the investment,
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: uh that that Disney has made not only the seventy
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  Speaker 1: three billion dollars that they used to buy Fox, but
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  Speaker 1: five billion for the part of Hulu that Comcast didn't known,
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  Speaker 1: and they've been spending like drunken sailors getting Disney Plus
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  Speaker 1: and ESPN Plus organized as streaming sites, and they will
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  Speaker 1: they will continue to spend. UH about a half a
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  Speaker 1: billion dollars will go into Disney Plus between now and
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  Speaker 1: November twelve, when it actually launches. I'm struggling to understand
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  Speaker 1: not the streaming side of this, but really the theme parks,
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  Speaker 1: the idea that the Star Wars Uh Galaxy's Edge didn't
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  Speaker 1: didn't fly, and what does this say about their ability
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  Speaker 1: to predict audiences and revenues in this area. I think
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  Speaker 1: what they didn't predicted Disney who was the crowds because
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  Speaker 1: that Star Wars Uh New theme park was heavily, heavily promoted,
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  Speaker 1: and it was over overbooked and jammed, and people just decided,
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  Speaker 1: I'm not taking my kids to this thing that I
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  Speaker 1: can't get into. It's it's an all day event and
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  Speaker 1: it's really spectacular and it will smooth things out over over.
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  Speaker 1: Of course, I want to make sure that I understand that.
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  Speaker 1: In other words, you're saying that because it was so
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  Speaker 1: popular and because people people didn't get tickets that it
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  Speaker 1: sort of diminished demand. But do you think that they
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  Speaker 1: didn't inaccurately predict the enthusiasm for it. That's that's exactly right.
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  Speaker 1: And I think you're going to see with with the
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  Speaker 1: new Star Wars film coming out at Christmas time again
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  Speaker 1: a huge new surge of interest in that the theme
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  Speaker 1: parks and and the merchandise are the biggest revenue and
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  Speaker 1: profit drivers at Disney right now. They represent more than
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: of Disney's total revenue. Uh. They were down very marginally
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  Speaker 1: a couple of points for this last quarter, but that's
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  Speaker 1: because they had to invest in building the Star Wars park,
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  Speaker 1: and they're suffering modestly in China and in Hong Kong
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  Speaker 1: with the protests over there. But those are temporary setbacks
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  Speaker 1: and Disney will will just go exploding at the end
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  Speaker 1: of this year. With with the streaming networks that they're launching.
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  Speaker 1: One of the things that nobody talks about ESPN is
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  Speaker 1: best position with their live sports coverage and the hundreds
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: of millions billions that they've sunk into sports rights to
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: be the platform for online betting, which is coming. There
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: are nine states that have legalized online betting now. UH,
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: by the end of after the election. I think you're
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: gonna see twenty five or thirty States going because it's
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: found revenue for them, and it beats the pants off
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  Speaker 1: of the state lotteries and the other other revenue generators
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  Speaker 1: that States has. You go, You go to the Magic
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Kingdom and just lay down a bet. You know, I
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  Speaker 1: don't know what snow white exactly on the next game tonight,
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  Speaker 1: so um so Porter. One of the big announcements I
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: thought from last night's results was the company kind of
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: announced a bundle streaming product. They're going to be putting
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  Speaker 1: all this all their streaming products together for one price.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: We can tell us about that. That was a blockbuster
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  Speaker 1: move by Bob Bob iger Uh to counter the falloff
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  Speaker 1: in in the share price that his modest earnings miss
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  Speaker 1: Uh created twelve nine for Hulu, Disney Plus, and the
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  Speaker 1: ESPN Plus. It's an unstoppable, untouchable idea, and the question
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  Speaker 1: is how long can they keep it because they're not
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  Speaker 1: going to make any profit with that kind of a price,
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  Speaker 1: and there there's no advertising, no um dual revenue stream
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  Speaker 1: that that any of those except Hulu has a modest
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  Speaker 1: service that you can buy, pay pay less and get
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  Speaker 1: some advertising. But even then they've cut the advertising way back,
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  Speaker 1: So Disney shows down four point seven percent, a pretty
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  Speaker 1: fierce response to the disappointing earnings. I'm just wondering, and
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: just to give you a sense, at one point that
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: was the biggest drop in the in the share since
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  Speaker 1: two thousand and fifteen. Porter, I guess what is going
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  Speaker 1: to uh sort of turn around the impression here because
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  Speaker 1: it seems like the disappointment was in the revenues. But
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  Speaker 1: you know with the package that they offered, if the
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  Speaker 1: bundling services of a bunch of different things, that seems
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  Speaker 1: really competitive. I mean, the whole Netflix killer story is
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: still on the table. So Disney is not a Netflix killer.
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  Speaker 1: Netflix is going to be around, thank you very much.
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  Speaker 1: The economic model is not sustainable, and someone at some
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  Speaker 1: point in the game is going when the when the
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  Speaker 1: share price comes down to a reasonable level, is going
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  Speaker 1: to pick them up. There there's no shortage of of
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  Speaker 1: content less buyers waiting right now. You have CBS, veh
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  Speaker 1: Coom coming together today or tomorrow. Um for Eizen wanted
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  Speaker 1: them a year ago. They're going to be first in
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  Speaker 1: line knocking the doors down. People don't talk about it,
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  Speaker 1: but Microsoft needs content. They have eighty million Xbox, Uh,
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  Speaker 1: Internet connections and just games on the Xbox. But why
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  Speaker 1: can't they show all of the content that movies and
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  Speaker 1: television can create? Then then Apple, Oprah and Steven Spielberg
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  Speaker 1: are not enough to carry Apple into the streaming wars
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  Speaker 1: and do it, do it well, and do it successfully,
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  Speaker 1: so there's there's no shortage of buyers. Um Disney, unfortunately
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  Speaker 1: for the rest of them, has almost no cost of
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  Speaker 1: content because they have such a spectacular archive and they're
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  Speaker 1: putting the igor Is announced that they're putting all of
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  Speaker 1: their brand new movies, the The Avengers, the new Star
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  Speaker 1: Wars movie this Christmas, the new Frozen. Uh, those are
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  Speaker 1: blockbusters that cost them nothing to put on the streamings.
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  Speaker 1: So before you mentioned the costs associated with streaming and
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  Speaker 1: the company's disclose that won't break even. I guess until
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  Speaker 1: fiscal still several years away. Do you think investors are
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  Speaker 1: gonna be that patient? Well, and it's a building business.
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  Speaker 1: We're seeing a cataclysmic transition of media from legacy media
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  Speaker 1: cable and satellite to streaming and people who want to
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  Speaker 1: get in. You have to realize Disney. Disney is up
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  Speaker 1: twenty seven percent since January. They dropped four percent yesterday
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  Speaker 1: and today, but there's still a lot of latitude there,
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  Speaker 1: and investors realized that the assets that they have are
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  Speaker 1: almost untouchable in the entertainment world. Certainly, if you have
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  Speaker 1: a child, I'll just say that. But Portabb, thank you
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  Speaker 1: so much for being with us. Portabb, Managing partner at
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: Media Tech Capital Partners. It is time to check in
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: with Bloomberg Opinion, and luckily for us, we've got a
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion contributor who is stellar when it comes to
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  Speaker 1: all things in markets, but particularly fixed income, Jim Bianco,
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  Speaker 1: President and founder of Bianco Research, coming to us from Chicago. Jim,
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  Speaker 1: the real story today, this week, this year, for the
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  Speaker 1: past ten years, has been bonds and bond yields heading
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  Speaker 1: to record loads today around the world, near record lows
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  Speaker 1: in the United States. When you look at the thirty
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  Speaker 1: year yield, and I'm wondering, why is this now causing
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  Speaker 1: concern rather than support for risk assets? You know, you're
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  Speaker 1: right that we are very close to We're like five
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  Speaker 1: basis points away from a record low now in the
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  Speaker 1: thirty year. And I think that the concern is in
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  Speaker 1: a unique situation that I don't remember ever seeing we've
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  Speaker 1: had one rate cut, the market over the next year
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  Speaker 1: is pricing in four more rate cuts, a total of
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  Speaker 1: five rate cuts. I can't find a single economist or
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  Speaker 1: a Federal Reserve official that thinks that the FED should
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  Speaker 1: or the FED should cut rates five times between the
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: last one and four more coming. So the market itself
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  Speaker 1: is an outlier. The market is seeing problems down the road.
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  Speaker 1: It is trying to communicate that through the inverted yield curve,
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  Speaker 1: through the plunge in yields, and it seems like the
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  Speaker 1: economic community in the FETE is not listening, and it's
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  Speaker 1: getting worried that since they're not listening, I have to
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  Speaker 1: not price in an even worse outcome. And we're caught
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  Speaker 1: in this spiral now with interest rates falling and falling
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  Speaker 1: and falling. So, Jim, how surprised were you to wake
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  Speaker 1: up this morning and see that we had rake cuts
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  Speaker 1: coming out of New Zealand and Indian and Thailand. Surprised
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  Speaker 1: and that all three of them were more than expected.
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  Speaker 1: There was an expectation that there'd be a cut in India,
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  Speaker 1: but it was larger than expected. There was not a
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  Speaker 1: for Thailand, and they did cut as well in New
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  Speaker 1: Zealand cut by fifty basis points, which is only done
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  Speaker 1: during the global financial crisis in the christ Church earthquake,
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  Speaker 1: So those were big deals, so it was very surprising.
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  Speaker 1: Do you think that this is signaling that there is
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  Speaker 1: more of a real possibility of a near term recession
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  Speaker 1: globally and in the US, because that certainly seems to
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  Speaker 1: be the indication of yield curves around the world. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: I think so. Um, if you look at the data
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  Speaker 1: that is coming out of Europe, especially today one of
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  Speaker 1: the big wirehouses UH describe some of the German data
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  Speaker 1: that came out today if disastrous. It's been such a
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  Speaker 1: bad number, and we it matters global growth is slowing down.
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  Speaker 1: It matters for the US. We cannot ignore it, and
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  Speaker 1: that is weighing on us as well too. It's obviously
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  Speaker 1: weighing on the rest of the world, which is why
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  Speaker 1: we're now approaching outside of the US half of the
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  Speaker 1: sovereign bonds in the world are now negative outside of
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  Speaker 1: the US. So, Jim, you mentioned that the FED or
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  Speaker 1: the markets are discounting four more rate cuts by the FED,
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  Speaker 1: although the data UH may not support that. What do
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  Speaker 1: you actually think the FED is going to do? They are,
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  Speaker 1: in fact, you know, as they say, data dependent. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: I think they're going to cut rates in September. The
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  Speaker 1: problem is is that they think that they're pretty sure
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  Speaker 1: that they're going to cut by twenty five, and there's
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  Speaker 1: some argument that maybe, you know, there might be something
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  Speaker 1: that comes along that they don't cut. The market's pretty
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  Speaker 1: sure they're gonna cut by fifty because it's now almost
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  Speaker 1: at a chance the way it's priced in that there
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  Speaker 1: will be a fifty basis point cut. So this will
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  Speaker 1: be the game will play. The Fed will follow you,
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  Speaker 1: we'll give you great cuts, but the market will be screaming, no,
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  Speaker 1: you're gonna give us more than you think and faster
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  Speaker 1: than you think. So we're all headed in the same direction.
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  Speaker 1: It's just the speed at which the market thinks to
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  Speaker 1: fet should go in which the Fed wants to go.
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  Speaker 1: At Jim, here's what I'm really struggling with. I'm looking
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  Speaker 1: at break even rates, sort of a gauge of inflation
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  Speaker 1: over the next five to ten years, or at least
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  Speaker 1: where people are pricing it in. It's come down, but
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  Speaker 1: it's not at the lowest point since the financial crisis.
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  Speaker 1: The way that bond that that that the yield curves
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  Speaker 1: are and I'm struggling to understand what the implication here is.
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  Speaker 1: Real yields just are going to continue to go lower
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  Speaker 1: even if growth grinds along. I mean, is that the
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  Speaker 1: main takeaway here? Yes, and there is a nuance we
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: need to put into those market measures of inflation expectation
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  Speaker 1: to break even rates. If you go back over the
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  Speaker 1: last several years and look at all of the times
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  Speaker 1: that it was lower, you know, February of two thousand sixteen,
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: two thousand twelve and example, and you look at crude oil,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: crude oil was down or more off of its high.
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  Speaker 1: Crude oil is down, but nowhere near that right now.
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  Speaker 1: So what's driving these break evens lower, these expectations of
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: lower inflation is not the energy market falling apart, but
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  Speaker 1: a belief that non energy inflation, which is core inflation,
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  Speaker 1: is coming down. That's what I think is really worrisome.
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  Speaker 1: This is not two thousand and sixteen when the break
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: even s fell a lot more because crude I went
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  Speaker 1: from a hundred dollars to twenty six dollars and just
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: wiped out the energy part of the equation. This is
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: everything else that seems to be falling. Jim Bianco, thank
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: you so very much. Jim, as president and founder of
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: Bianco Research, is also a contributor to Blue or Opinion.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: You can read more on this and other stories from
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion at Bloomberg dot com, slash Opinion or on
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: the terminal by typing O P I n go. President
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: Trump coming out yet again against the Federal Reserve, basically
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: saying the problems in the US not China. We are
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: stronger than ever. Money is pouring into the US, while
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: China is losing companies by the thousands to other countries
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: and their currencies under siege. Our problem is a federal
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: Reserve that is too proud to admit their mistake of
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: acting too fast and tightening too much, and that I
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: was right. And it goes on. There is a three
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: tweet tweet storm joining us now to talk about what
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: this implies for markets and how it's being interpreted and frankly,
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: what is the FEDS conundrum is going forward? Tom Or,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: like chief economist for Bloomberg Economics, I'm just wondering what
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: your impression is of these tweets? Is Trump right? So?
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: I think there's certainly a consensus that the Federal Reserve
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: was too aggressive um at the end of two thousand
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: and eighteen, UM, and that that rate hike misjudged the
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: state of the economy, misjudged the mood in the markets,
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: and now they're having to undo some of the damage
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: which that did. UM. Where he's wrong, I think is
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: on the idea. Firstly, that politicians should be intervening in
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: monetary policy. We have independent central banks for a good reason.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: The White House weighing in UM before breakfast, lunch, and
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: dinner doesn't make their job any easier. UM. Secondly, is
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: monetary policy effective against trade tariffs? Can you cut interest
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: rates to offset the drag caused by Trump's trade war? Um?
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: I think the answer to that probably no. Businesses see
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: lower rates as an incentive to invest, But when they're
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: so worried about supply chains being broken, about access to
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: markets being blocked, they're not going to make that investment.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: So Tom, it's the market is pricing in, you know,
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: as much as four more rate cuts over the next
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: year or so. What is the market seeing that? Maybe? Um,
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: The Federal Reserve is not so. I think the markets
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: are forward looking. The Federal Reserve is looking at the
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: data and the data is telling us about the past. Um,
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: So the market is anticipating an escalating trade war, chilling
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: US exports, breaking US supply chains, hitting the US consumer
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: in the pocket book, and a federal reserve which is
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: being forced to respond to that. The risk, I think,
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: is that we have a spiral of higher tariffs and
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: lower rates, and in a year's time, the economy is
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: on the cusp of a very serious downturn, and the
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: Federal Reserve has not enough firepower left to deal with it.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: So it's not just a federal reserve. We've got central
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: banks around the world that are cutting rates more than
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: people have expected. We got the three rate cuts from
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: three three different central banks in Asia overnight, and I'm
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: just wondering, I mean, do you think that basically the
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: Fed is given a green light to central banks around
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: the world to go into an easing cycle, perhaps prematurely.
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: I think there's two things going on, Lisa. So the
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: first thing is that central banks are all responding to
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: the same threat. The trade war isn't just a problem
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: for China and the US. It's a problem for most
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: other major economies in the world, and that's why we're
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: seeing so many central banks responding to it. The second point,
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: and I think this is where your comment is is
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: completely on point, is the FED easing enables other central
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: banks to ease. If the U his lowering rates, other
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: central banks can and do lower rates without concerns about
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: currency weakness and capitaliite flows. And that's why we're seeing
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: Thailand and other emerging markets taking advantage of that opportunity. So, Tom,
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: you lived and worked in Beijing for many years, you
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: have a good sense of the economic situation there. What
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: do you think the Chinese are really looking to achieve
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: from a trade deal, if anything, and what is kind
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: of the timing that you think that they might be under.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: So I don't have a window into China's leadership compound
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: Jong Nan high Um, but my sense is that the
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: Chinese view on negotiations with Trump has changed in the
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: last few months. UM. We had that move at the
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: beginning of the summer to hike tariffs from ten unexpected.
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: We had that surprise threat of tariffs against mex Acho
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: after the US had negotiated noon after UM, and now
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: we have the teen per cent tariffs on three billion
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: dollars and the move to label China currency manipulator. I
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: think all of these things are convincing Beijing that actually
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: the chances of a wind wind deal with Trump on
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: trade are pretty low, and so I think what they're
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: doing is buckling down the hatches and trying to last
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: three to November twenty twenty, when they hope that they'll
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: have someone else in the White House who they find
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: it easier to talk to. Tom Can the tariffs and
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: what we've seen so far with the trade wars and
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: the global economy into recession. So global recession is a
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: big call. Um, Let's start with the US. So US
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: recession is a big call as well. Unemployment is a
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: fifty years Luxemburg. Luxembourg's much smaller, But unfortunately I haven't
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: flown over it recently. So per the economists rule that
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: you can't make a judgment on an economy you haven't
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: flown over, I can't make a judgment. Um. But let's
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: come back to the US. UM. Yes, the trade war
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: is a very serious threat to growth, not just because
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: of what the tariffs are doing, but because of the
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: chilling impact of uncertainty on business and consumer confidence and
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: financial markets. UM. At the same time, we have unemployment
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: at a fifty year low UH and wage growth running
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: at more than three. The consumer is the main driver
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: of you of the U S economy. UM, So yes,
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: we're concerned. Yes, we're looking at UM some indications of
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: some weakness coming into the labor market, but we'd want
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: to see more signs of the labor market crumbling before
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: we made a big call like that, Tom, or like,
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: thank you very much time as a chief economist for
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Economics, joining us live here in our Bloomberg Interactive
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: Broker studio. Well, what I thought was some very interesting
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: news coming out of FedEx. The company announced that the
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: ground delivery contract with Amazon won't be renewed when it
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: expires at the end of this month, the company said
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: in a statement. To get the latest on this and
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: what it means for FedEx and the transportation industry, we
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: welcome Satista Jendle, president of s J Consulting, and Thomas Black,
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: transportation reporter for a Bloomberg UH. Tom's let's start with
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: you kind of just give us the background here on
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: what FedEx is doing with one of the biggest strippers
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: in the world. They're pulling back. We knew this was coming.
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: They announced in June that they were no longer going
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: to do the next day air service for Amazon. So, uh,
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: this is an incremental step in that and they're pulling
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: back on on the ground and they it's a signal
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: that they see Amazon more as a competitor as it
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: builds out its network, and they're gonna try to scoop
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: up other customers for e commerce as it grows. Situation.
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: President of j Consulting, come in in here, because I'm
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: wondering how much this bet is a good one on
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: FedEx's part. How big of an infrastructure does Amazon dot
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: Com have right now? And it is fed X going
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: to be in a better position than Amazon as a
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: result of this move, you know, this is Uh. The
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: termination of the contract first is really an academic because
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: based on a lot of data we have, fed X
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: was not handling any packages because Amazon has cut them
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: off completely. They give them zero packages, So it is academic.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: The only relevance of terminating that contract is that during
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: peak time, Amazon will not be able to rely on
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: fed X for any volume. But Amazon has built its
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: own network of last mile delivery to such a point
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: that today they are delivering over four million packages a
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: day with their own drivers, and they're continuing to ramp
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: that up. So and they've got the post aft that
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: they've got ups and they've got up the private small
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: cave here to deliver for them. And this is no
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: headache for Amazon. They will not miss a heartbeat not
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: having fed X. Instead, fed X is going to have
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: to work hard to replace that capacity and that volume
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: with others. That doesn't come easy. Yeah, Thomas, I want
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: to follow up on that point. It seems like when
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: I think about Amazon, I would think that would just
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: be a huge, huge customer for fed X, and you know,
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: I think about a fixed cost system like uh, you
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: know FedEx has how will they make up that lost volume? Well,
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: they talked about the volume with Amazon being about one
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: point three of their total sales, which if you do
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: just to back it of the envelope, calculations around nine million.
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: So it seems a lot. But it's a company that
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: does almost seventy billion in sales per year, so it
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: can handle the hit um ups on. On the other
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: it probably does more business with Amazon and that partnership
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: is continuing, so it's going to be interesting to see
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: how that plays out over time. If this is more
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: of a cosmetic type of move on the part of
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: fed X or a pr kind of I don't want
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: to call it a stunt, but something to sort of
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: make a statement more than anything else. What are they
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: hoping happens from it? I think this is a wait
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: for them to embrace themselves with Walmart and get Walmart
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: to realize that they are, uh not working with Walmart's
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: biggest competitor, and that to have Walmart make FedEx their
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: primary career and give them more business than and to
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: what whatever they're giving to ups to FedEx other than that,
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: If I'm a shipper, it doesn't make a difference to
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: me that I would rather do business with fed X.
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: If they're not doing business with Amazon that never happens,
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: then this is a more negative for FedEx than for
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: Amazon in my view. So, Thomas, I know that, uh,
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: the fed X is kind of saying it's in a
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: transition year and their forecasting earnings to decline. What's really problem,
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: what's really creating the problems there at FedEx? Well, they
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: have some problems in their European business. They acquired a
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: company called T n T Express and that was back
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: in May of when they close that deal and they
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: still are grappling with the integration of that company. That's
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: that's been a a drag on on fed X and UH.
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: They're also seeing the international business weekend a little bit
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: with some of the trade spat that's going on. So
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: those those are two main things that are weighing on.
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: Who is Walmart relying on now, I mean in terms
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: of who I mean who who is who is uh?
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: Who is FedEx going to sort of take business away from?
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: See that again, Well, you said that Walmart could be
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: the biggest winner from the fed X or basically that
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: FedEx is trying to win over Walmart's business. I'm wondering
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: who Aalmart is doing shipping business with right now. They
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: are doing a big amount of business with FedEx, but
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: they're also giving to UPS and this is effort by
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: them to try and have some of that business going
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: to others, including upsp devoted to FedEx. Thank you so
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: much for being with us at Gendel, President of SJA Consulting.
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: Thomas Black, transportation reporter for Bloomberg News. Thanks for listening
• 25:23
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• 25:26
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• 25:28
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• 25:33
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• 25:36
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