Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / US Jobs Data *Just* Out // Stock Rally at Risk + Stock Market News 02 May 2024

Transcript

US Jobs Data *Just* Out // Stock Rally at Risk + Stock Market News 02 May 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: groups, you understand what the data is and that you are the best informed investor out there.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: That's always our goal.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: And there we are.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Property Life Wonderful.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: In that I'll Thank you.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: And that's the wrong magnet there.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: But phoenixfriendsorg slash hedge H-E-D-G-E.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: I'll put it.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: It's in the description.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: No sound, no sound.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Okay, one second, one second, all right, brilliant.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Thanks for the slight heart attack there.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: We have sound, we can hear you.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, fantastic.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: I appreciate that it must have been an NVIDIA thing or something I restarted there.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: So welcome to this great big juicy green morning.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: And I want you to understand why.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: So you can make better, smarter decisions and potentially make more money, which is surely what this is all about.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: And in that and you do that when the market's looking good, not when the market's looking dodgy as heck, because at that point you can't get insurance.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: It's too expensive.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: So there's a document out here for you.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: The link's down below in the description.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: It's felixfriendsorg slash hedge.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: I'll type it into the chat as well and you can get your paws on that.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: And it's a document that walks you through it over five pages with screenshots, and there is a video at the top to explain it as well.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: So get your paws on that.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: It'll be.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: I think it'll be helpful.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: We'll talk about market positioning and Tesla, qualcomm, doordosh, ebay, fat, drugs, chip stocks and everything else in just a moment, but the important thing here is jobs data.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: It's jobs data, and we talked through the Fed set, obviously yesterday as well, although I have recorded a full, detailed video on that which is coming out with match assistance from Winston.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Okay, the job openings right, that's the March data.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: Is that good, is that bad?
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Well, it means a tighter.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Well, it means a tighter labor market, and that's actually what we want, right.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: And if you look at where we were last year up here, we've lost about 100,000, maybe a little bit more open jobs, right, job openings, job adverts, jobs you can apply for, which is not insignificant.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: If you look at construction data job opening, construction data here, which is an absolute catastrophe, collapsed like that biggest drop on record, literally biggest jobs opening drop in construction ever.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: Why does that happen?
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Well, think this through High interest rates make building which is financed on those interest rates expensive, so therefore, no more building right.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: And then you also have a massive commercial real estate crisis, but that's a different story, and therefore you would expect that unemployment would start to pick up.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: But oh no, over the same time period, same time period as I'm showing you above apparently unemployment has fallen significantly and it is once again flat.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: And this is, of course, brought to you by the comedians at the Labour Department, right, you have a particularly peculiar sense of humor.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: And yeah, the continuing jobless claims, which is basically unemployment, are also over the time period.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Well, it's actually slightly down apparently.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: So we've lost loads of job openings, massive amounts of it, but no, no, no, we haven't lost a single job.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: And then you look at this and Tallulah excuse me, very noisy cat, here is one.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: He thinks I'm some sort of you know bed to sleep on, you know bed to sleep on.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Job cut announcements in red right.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: So that's cuts.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: And well, over the time period they have gone up rather a lot, but unemployment has not.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, you can't make this up.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: I actually kind of hope that you do re-elect president biden, because the comedy that his labor department provides is is sort of second to none.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: All presidents manipulate data.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: Of course this is nothing new, but the scale to which they do it and that they make you believe it is is ludicrous.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: So, yes, apparently the jobs market is tight, but no one's losing their job, right?
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: You're going to believe that, aren't you?
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: I was thinking of not to not show you this chart because I thought it might depress you.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: But if you look at the range in which valuation, range in which US stocks usually trade, we're up there Just saying right, not exactly cheap.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: But let's move on to market positioning here.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: So the market, the juicy, beautiful S&P, right now is positioned in this way.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: Right now is positioned in this way Let me explain this to you Above that beautiful blue line, so above and I said this a week ago above 5,000,.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: Everything is wonderful.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Okay, the market is calm, the woes are very small, the sun shines and market makers continue to buy stocks.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: And below 5,000, and probably a little lower, it's probably more like 4,980, kind of where it kicks in more harshly, c's get rough.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: Okay, so that's basically where that is.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: So right now, we are trading at 5,018.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: That looks pretty good.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: It's only 18 points, though, from the you know, put on the live fests kind of a scenario.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: And how do you know that?
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Because you go into optionswatchio, to which, of course, you've already signed up to an account, because there's nothing more brilliant than this little app that we are building and every single dollar that you give us.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: After the 30 free days free trial, we are reinvesting into making this better.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: We've got a huge amount of cool indicators and data coming up here, but you see that red line there at 5,000?
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: That is your support.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: Below it, it's like I'd see you kind of fizzle out and you possibly drop through 4,900.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: So below 5,000, things are getting a little bit choppy and it is somewhat hard to break through.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: 5,100, which is the resistance here.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: 5,100 is the French resistance.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: I don't know why I always think of the French resistance.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: I'm sure there were lots of other resistance fighters that always think of the French.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: So 5,100, may I Just a dollar symbol there.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: 5,100 is resistance, right?
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: So now you know.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Now you know.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: Now you know what you know.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's run through a couple of things and, of course, do ask your questions down below.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: Tesla is firing the interns.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: Things are a little dire over there in Tesla land.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: You know what I must say.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: I love Elon Musk when he's on a rampage, like when he walked into Twitter and he fired 90% of people, and the platform is now better, higher uptime, higher revenue than without those 90% of staff.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: And the reality is in most companies, 90% of staff give you 10% of output.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: 10% of staff give you 90% of output.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: That's generally a pretty good rule in life.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: So interns typically distract the F out of everybody who works there and give you absolutely zero value, except if in the long run you'd want to hire them and they're a strong competition and I get the idea, but I don't think that's really the Tesla issue right now.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: So they are literally emailing employees saying buzz off, go and protest somewhere.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Qualcomm solid outlook and sign-off smartphone recovery, which is good.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: We can pull that up here.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: Qualcomm, qcom I know you all care very, very gravely about Qualcomm, but the whole chip thing is kind of tied together so it does lead somewhere.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: We're trading up here that blue line there $174.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: Yesterday we closed the day at $164, so we're up 10 points, which is not too shabby, hitting the April highs here once again.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Doordash is on the run Tumbled 10% apparently.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: Grocery order value doubled but the shares slipped 15% because shares have doubled over the last 12 months.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: So expectations is obviously very high.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: They haven't given their timeline to become profitable on an operating basis, so it didn't say why.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: So obviously margins are not impressing their door Can't say it's something that is a dash or door.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: It's dash down 7.8% yesterday and falling, and then some.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: We closed the day yesterday at 127.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: We're down another 10 points here.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: So that's a bit of a falling knife there.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: I don't think we're going to be touching that one.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: Ebay shares fall on weak revenue and because people realize they haven't updated the websites in 1997, and it looks like really like something somebody built in 1997.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: It's very peculiar sort of comforting, but it's also very peculiar and lost market share to amazon.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, no shit, I mean the website sucks and they're focused on car parts, luxury goods, refurbished appliances.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Okay, companies shares for five percent in extended trading, already down 70 this year.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: So yeah, ebay is, I think, a dying beast.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Fat drugs.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: On the other hand, they're shipping more but price pressure holds back their sales.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: Supply constraints are a.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: They can't make enough and people are worried that Eli LLY is going to compete with them harshly on pricing.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: So NVO dropping there, let's pull that up as well.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: So it's a bunch of not very great earnings.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: We are, of course, all hanging on the edge of our seat for Apple earnings later today.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Peloton nobody cares about, I think, and we're going to talk about Papa Powell in just a second.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: But NVO, okay, not looking too bad here, not looking too bad A little bit down, but just to the yellow 50-day moving average landline there.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: So the fatties are still, you know, swallowing this stuff.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: Semiconductors are dropping, moving a lot for sure 209 right now on the SOX ETF.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: That's not about actual SOX but about semis and that's got a lot to do with SMCI, super microcomputers, super microcomputers.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: Off the charts.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: We say, okay, not too horrible this morning, up 2% yesterday, but yeah, the drop's been pretty significant here right Yesterday, very significant drop.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: It looks to be consolidating here this morning.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg's running with Powell keeps rate cuts on the table.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: The good news from Papa Powell is the position.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: The good news is their position for Winston.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: What's that all about Winston?
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: No, so Jerome Powell's.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: The fact that they are shredding less money is, I think, quite positive.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: And I think really he delivered more than most of the market expected in terms of support, because he said rates aren't going up, rates aren't going down.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: We already knew that, but it's more likely to go down than up, which is good.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: And he cut the money shredding by more than expected, which essentially pumps an extra 105 billion into markets over the next quarter.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: So that's actually quite positive.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: So I thought it was a pretty positive read overall and the market seems to agree here this morning.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: What's the future of Uber, lyft with autonomous cars from Tesla and others?
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: Well, yeah, it's going to be a competitor, right, tesla is going to be an Uber competitor, and I never really understood why Uber stopped developing autonomous driving data.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: I didn't really understand that.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: I always thought that that would be the future of their business, because they could get rid of all the drivers.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: Sucks for the drivers, but it obviously makes it a lot cheaper, good for passengers and so on, and it could be much, much more profitable.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: But they just haven't pursued that.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: So they are basically saying our app and our mode is so strong because everyone's got Uber.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: And is that true?
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: I think to an extent.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: Yes, I think to a large extent.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: It is like wherever I land in the world unless, okay, hotels pick me up most of the time, but if there isn't a hotel on the other end, then I will book an Uber and it's just because I've got a little phone.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: It's easy.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: I can't be bothered to sign up to something else.
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: So there is that hurdle.
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: So Tesla would have to offer something better to make me want to switch right.