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Moderna: We Can Change Vaccine 'Code' To Fight New Variants · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast
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  Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com Slash podcast. Certainly the conversation of
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: the morning for us. It's been quite a year with
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  Speaker 1: this pandemic. I think now most people around most of
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: the world can see a light at the end of
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  Speaker 1: the tunnel. It's because of the extraordinary science coming out
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  Speaker 1: of the biotech and pharmaceutical industries. UH. And the next
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: guest is certainly right there, and we appreciate getting some
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  Speaker 1: time from Dr newbar Afian. He has chairman and co
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  Speaker 1: founder of Moderna is a publicly traded stock m r
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  Speaker 1: n A on the NASDAC uh DRFA and it's also
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  Speaker 1: founder and CEO of Flagship Pioneering based in Cambridge, Massachusetts. UH.
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  Speaker 1: Dr Afaian, thank you how much for joining us. We
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  Speaker 1: really appreciate your time, UH and we appreciate the extraordinary
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: work coming out of Moderna. The world is certainly thankful
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: for the good work from the good folks at MODERNA.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Give us an update of where you are with the
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  Speaker 1: vaccine in terms of global distribution and production. Well, first,
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  Speaker 1: thanks for having me and for the kind words. And
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  Speaker 1: it has been uh, you know, twelve months that seems
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  Speaker 1: like we're still frozen left in left March when we
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  Speaker 1: started going down this path, and the progress that has
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: been has been really great to witness. And with all
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  Speaker 1: the work downstream of distributing the vaccine, we're beginning to
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  Speaker 1: see the impact that we all hoped for. In terms
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: of where we are right now, there's a lot going
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  Speaker 1: on across many fronts. Production front, we were initially heavily
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  Speaker 1: focused on the US production. We've now wrapped up our
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: European production in Switzer and through our partners, and that
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  Speaker 1: distribution is enabling us to get volumes throughout the world
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  Speaker 1: where we've had early orders from from various countries that
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  Speaker 1: we've announced um. Second, we have announced a couple of
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  Speaker 1: weeks ago that we're that we've both been testing our
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  Speaker 1: current UH initial vaccine that's already being deployed, but also
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  Speaker 1: testing some vaccines that that also have additional variations to them.
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  Speaker 1: In one case, a variant that is designed to tackle
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  Speaker 1: more directly the South African variant, because well, we don't
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  Speaker 1: know whether that variant will oppose problems a long term,
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  Speaker 1: we want to be ready if it does. So, so
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  Speaker 1: our technology lends itself to a very rapid response and
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  Speaker 1: we can change essentially the code of the of the
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  Speaker 1: m R and A we use and very quickly have
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  Speaker 1: a slightly different immune response. We also have announced going
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  Speaker 1: into younger populations to have to eighteen and just yesterday
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  Speaker 1: we are now starting our trial phase two three trials
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  Speaker 1: that will be a careful trial going from twelve down
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  Speaker 1: to six month old. We think it's very very important
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  Speaker 1: that that piece of the population be protected as well,
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  Speaker 1: because that's where much of the damage in terms of
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  Speaker 1: learning loss and school attendance has been felt, and we
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  Speaker 1: very much want to make sure that we can also
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  Speaker 1: get an effective and safe vaccine. There so a lot
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  Speaker 1: of different activities going on. How many doses doctor, do
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  Speaker 1: you think you can produce max this year and how
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  Speaker 1: many can you produce next year? I mean, what are
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  Speaker 1: the biggest head winds and tail winds? But what are
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  Speaker 1: the numbers you think you can hit? Um But Durna
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  Speaker 1: has announced publicly that we have ramped up our productions
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  Speaker 1: such that we think that we'll be able to get
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  Speaker 1: up to a billion doses this year. Certainly feel comfortable
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  Speaker 1: with the seven eight million dollars somehow many million dose numbers,
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  Speaker 1: but we've put in place and have many investments to
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  Speaker 1: enable production going up to a billion doses. That's just
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  Speaker 1: this year. I'll run mind your audience. That are vaccines.
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  Speaker 1: Since it was developed first and most rapidly in the beginning,
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  Speaker 1: we basically decided to go after the highest those we
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  Speaker 1: could we could use and and dose twice. The reason
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  Speaker 1: for that was to be able to get the maximum
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  Speaker 1: level of protection, and that was evidenced in the efficacy
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  Speaker 1: numbers we saw. We are, however, as we speak, also
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  Speaker 1: testing other dose levels that are lower than the four
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  Speaker 1: hundred micrograms, particularly when it comes to the booster. We've
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: said publicly we're testing fifty micrograms and the found micrograms
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  Speaker 1: in a booster shop and and and the reason that's
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  Speaker 1: important is that should that be effective or even equally effective,
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  Speaker 1: we just don't know until we test. Then of course,
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  Speaker 1: the production volume could increase by two to four times
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: the number that I told you simply because there would
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  Speaker 1: be the dose levels would be reduced. Again, we need
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: evidence for that. But but what the numbers I just
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  Speaker 1: gave you were at the maximum two doses at a
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  Speaker 1: hundred microgram exture. We expect those numbers even at the
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: baseline level, even if we just stop to the same
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: high dose levels, we could probably increase that by another
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: perhaps even higher than that. UH. And we're working with
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  Speaker 1: our partners all around the world to estimate what kind
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  Speaker 1: of demand we will have UH in view of all
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: the other vaccines that also are being developed. And it
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  Speaker 1: is a global pandemic, and we're gonna have to vaccinate
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  Speaker 1: essentially everyone, ideally or at least as many people as
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: are willing to participate in and and that's going to
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: require multiple different producers. Will certainly do our part. Dr Fine,
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  Speaker 1: I'll love to get your thoughts on what's happening in Europe.
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  Speaker 1: I mean you compare that we have. You know, in
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  Speaker 1: the United States more population has received at least one dose.
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  Speaker 1: Those numbers are much much lower across Europe, frustrating many
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: of the folks there, And recently've had many countries halt
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  Speaker 1: the astra zeneca UH. Vaccination. What is your sense of
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  Speaker 1: what's going on in Europe? Are they being too cautious
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  Speaker 1: with the AstraZeneca vaccine in a political issue? You know,
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  Speaker 1: I can't comment on the political side, but let me
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: just start by saying that the regulatory agencies and the
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  Speaker 1: health agencies in each of these countries, I believe are
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  Speaker 1: well armed to explore the facts around each of the reports,
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: and they have to do that. And I think that
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  Speaker 1: there is a scientific way to determine the causal links
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  Speaker 1: of of what's been observed so that we don't kind
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  Speaker 1: of conflate what maybe correlation or a number of events
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  Speaker 1: that would happen when that many people I enter a program,
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  Speaker 1: any vaccine program. Keep in mind, these are numbers that
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  Speaker 1: generally we don't see, let alone in such a short
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  Speaker 1: period of time. Maybe the flu vaccine is the is
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: one of the most abundantly used ones, and they don't
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: compare to the numbers that we're that we're getting to
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: h and so I think that the regulatory health agencies
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: have to follow these things and get at the fact.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: In the meantime, speculation about this is completely onwul and
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: and it's rampant. There's a lot of expert speculation about
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: it could be this, it could be that, and and
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: I just think we have to keep in mind that
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: we're gonna need multiple vaccine types in order to do
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: the job. It's really important that we handle each of
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: them without in the meantime, E wrote in confidence. And
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: so I think people are doing the right thing. It
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: is up to each country to decide what they do
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: when they're gathering the fact. But I don't think anybody
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: should assume that when they suspend a distribution of vaccine
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: that therefore means there's something wrong with it. What it
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: means is that the process to figure that out takes
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: a little bit of time, and in that timeframe, they're
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: choosing to be safer because they're balancing the impact of
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: a vaccine helping avoid infections with the potential risk that
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: is perceived. And that's the decision they make. Even though
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: you're even though you founded the company and you're the chairman,
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: were you impressed with the speed of development as well?
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, um, you know you astounded the likes of
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: Bill Gates, who has a lot of experience in in vaccines,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: and um, I wonder if you can use what you
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: found to develop other things as quickly as you did
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: with this. Well, there, there's a couple of ways I
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: can answer that question. And so the answers, as you
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: might expect, yes and no. And here's why. First of all,
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: you know, Madarna was founded ten years ago for the
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: express purpose of building a platform the likes of which
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: have never existed that, for the first time, makes an
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: information molecule and code molecule, a messenger on a into
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: a drug. We've never seen that before. All the drugs
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: we used today are chemicals and proteins. They don't have
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: the characteristic of an information molecule where you can change
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: the code, get a different protein at will, recombine use
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: the same pieces in a slightly different way. So kind
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: of the notion of having a bit programmable, these are
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: not things that have been available, and so speed of
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: of design implementation has always been an important part of
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: our platform. The ironic part is that it almost doesn't
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: matter in normal times pharmaceutical development, because you have to
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: hurry up and wait right so you can do all
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: these things quickly, and then you have to wait for
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: years and years of clinical testing and trial. But in
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: a pandemic, when we could test it so rapidly. Actually,
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: the speed of being able to offer a solution was
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: not surprising. What was surprising was that the subsequent steps
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: were done so quickly, and that took a lot of
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: coordination with NIH, with FDA, with many many entities. And
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: what was surprising was that the number of things that
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: could have gone wrong along the way, very little of
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: which we controlled once we made the actual vaccine product. Actually, uh,
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: let's say UM complied or or or or or or
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: went our way, if you will, as well as our
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: fiser and bantech so that we could get to the
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: other end of the road. That is kind of the
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: more gratifying, you know, you don't want to say surprising,
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: because you of course hope that that's the case, but
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: it hardly ever ends up that way. Yeah, hey, Dcor,
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: we just you know, real quick and love to get
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: your thoughts on Rubious Therapeutics. I know you're on the
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: board of that company, and that's how to significant cancer
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: break there if you could briefly just kind of tell
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: us what's going on there, very briefly. Rubious is part
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: of the family of companies that have emerged out of
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: flagship pioneering, as is Maderna with a common thread of
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: it being based on a platform. In that case, we
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: engineered for the first time red cells, red blood cells
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: that when we gave two cancer patients alert their immune
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: system and activate them to go after the cancer. And
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: just this Monday, we announced preliminary data from our phase
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: one trial that showed very clearly in solid tumors that
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: otherwise I have no immune uh responses, that suddenly with
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: these red cells that we've developed, we saw two of
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: them show partial responses, multiple other ones showing the markers
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: of immune activation. And that's a whole new ray of
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: hope for solid tumors that we could use the body's
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: immune system. The interesting thing is that it's the same
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: immune system that we're deploying against with vaccines against the infection,
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: also now being trained to go after cancer, and so
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: different platforms will go about this in different ways, but
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: quite encouraging preliminary information. All right, well, we really appreciate
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: your time. Again, I know you're very busy with things well,
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: saving the world basically, so much respect Dr new bar
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: if I, and thank you so much for joining us
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: the chairman of MODERNA and also the CEO flagship. Let's
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: focus in on rates right now. We have Ed Alusani,
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: senior interest rate and Currency analyst at Columbia thread Needle
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: and Ed we're looking at right now at UM rates
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: that are all rising as investors sell off bonds. The
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: US tenure trading at one sixties six right now, the
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: thirty year at two forty almost two forty two. UM.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: What do you expect for Drone Powell today? Yeah, it's
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: gonna be an interesting meeting. I mean, what markets are
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: essentially pricing is less doubt. Uh, There's less doubt around
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: the growth outlook in terms of growth improving in the
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: course of this year next year. There's less doubt about
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: the employment outlook in terms of the FED being able
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: to hit the maximum employment bogies over the next you know,
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: twoss to eighteen months and and start tapering. And there's
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: less doubt about the FED being able to meet its
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: inflation mandate UM, getting inflation to overshoot, anchoring inflation expectations
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: higher UM, and that's moving the entire rates complex higher.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: And I think Power is going to have a tricky
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: communication problem here because the forecast, the economic projections you know,
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: by and large are going to reflect some of these trends.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: Particularly in employment and growth. I think there's a question
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: mark around inflation and the communication challenges. UM, how do
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: you guide uh that funds rates or expectations for FED
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: funds rates in an environment where UM risks are starting
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: to scow to the upside UM and that's that's a
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: difficult spot for them. Yeah. So, I mean it does
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: the chairman run the risk of the market kind of
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: moving past him. I mean, it seems like he's going
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: to have to acknowledge what we're seeing in the marketplace today.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: But I know that's a tight rope to walk. Yeah,
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's definitely a risk. You know, the
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: market participants of the way, like like ourselves, we're single
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: cell organisms. We uh, we don't we we we don't
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: parse this stuff, um at the level of details that
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: I think the FED expects us too. And UM. You know,
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: markets have started front running this in the course of
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: the past you know, four to five months, we've started
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: to bring forward the hiking cycle as the outlook for
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: for growth and inflation improved in in the last quarter
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: of UM. Now and you see, by the way, by
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: the way, you see a seventy chance that the FED
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: will hike at the end of two so even you're
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: bringing it into next year. Well that those are the
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: odds that are in in the swaps. So those are
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: the market odds, UM that are currently in the price. Yeah,
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: so that's market pricing. You know, from my perspective, that's
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: that's quite aggressive. That leaves the Fed absolutely no room
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: for error in terms of achieving its inflation UH targets
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: and UH you know, let's let's take a step back.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: The set has not achieved them in the course of
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: the past twenty five years. UM. Coming out of recession
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: and being able to hit these bogies within you know,
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: twelve twenty four months of a relatively deep recession, UH
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: would would really be quite extraordinary. End. So the markets
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: are pricing an exceptionally positive scenario for the FED in
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: the moment. Alright, ed, how about on the bond purchasing activity.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: What kind of messaging do you think we will here
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: out of Chairman Pal today. I don't think we'll hear anything. Um.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: You know, guidance for the balance sheet has been anchored
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: by UM, you know, essentially this this this few that
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: they need to see substantial further progress in quotation marks
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: UM around improvement in the economy, both in labor and inflation. UM.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: They've been exceptionally vague by by design around this, and
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: there's no indications that they need to adjust or that
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: they're willing to adjust this guidance UM at this stage.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: You know, the threshold in my mind on that front
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: really remains whether there's there's a spillover from rates markets
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: into credit. If if credit spreads start to widen, financial
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: conditions start to tighten, particularly that happens in the distorterly way. UM,
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: there's a really good reason uh to I think engage
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: in in in strengthening guidance for the balance sheet or
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: maybe increasing purchases UM. At the moment, they have shown
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: no appetite to do that, uh, And I personally think that's, uh,
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: that's a little bit of an error on their part.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, Bill Gross told Eric Shatzker in an interview
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: yesterday that he's been shorting the tenure um and we'll
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: continue to because he thinks the FED is gonna see
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: a jump in inflation to three to four plus per
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: cent um. And his point was, look, if if Powell
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: sees that for six to twelve months, it's going to
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: be difficult to hold the line. Well, I'll say, I'll say,
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: you know two things. Um. You know, the first, congratulations
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: to Bill Gross, but to um all the trades he
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: told us about, We're winners by the way. UM. Well,
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: so let let me let me give you some some
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: some weight to Powell's guidance. Powell has been pretty explicit
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: in saying that inflation will likely move up this year.
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: We have really good reasons for that to happen and
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: to have cod fence around that, and that's really base
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: effects from last year and the economy reopening, and there
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: are being some some pricing power, particularly in services. UM.
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: He's also been very very clear that the Fed is
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: going to view pretty much all of the inflation developments
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: this year as transitory. So um, you know, the Fed
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: seeing you know, three to four percent prints over the
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: next quarter in in in headline, CPI UH is not
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: going to change their reaction function. They have three committed
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: to not doing that. Now. Markets are obviously front running that.
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: We have been front running it now for the better
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: part of the last six months. And the question is
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: how much is enough? Um? The ultimate test Alright, we're
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: gonna We're gonna have to leave it there because the
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: time but that we'll touch base with you again as
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: we like to do. Ed Al Husseini Senior Interest Rate
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: and Currency Annalysts for Columbia Threat Needle Investments. Not only
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: is this guy one of my favorite Bloomberg reporters, he's
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: my mom's favorite at Bloomberg Reporter. That's big. Max Abelson
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: joins us now with a piece that he has written
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: on Donald Trump's fortune falling to two point three billion.
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: I gotta say, Max, when I first read this, I thought,
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: Pierre right, he has two point three billion dollars. You know,
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: it's really important to remember that. You know, the guy
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: is not like ten billion dollar worth the character he
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: thinks he is, but he really is worth something. And
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: that's why it's fun to work with people like Sophie
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: Alexander and Andrew Tarter uh and and the Bloomberg Data team,
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: because you know, we we use financial findings and um
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  Speaker 1: loan documents and interviews with executives to really take an
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  Speaker 1: before I say another word, I just have to tell
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: you how happy I'm to hear your voice and to
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: know your mother likes my journalism, and you know it's
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: it's it's fun for me to be able to work
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: on stories like this one. We we really had a
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: good time working on this. How people take a look
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: because it's a it's a it's a deep story and
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: a detailed story, but it's also really a fun one. Yeah, Max,
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: What I love about the story not just is the
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: content and the great writing, but the use of graphics
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: you guys had here, and it really break down, you know,
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: the different buckets of his assets and the and the
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: debt associated with that those assets. You get a sense
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: of what's happened to the value of those assets as
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: well as the income. One part of your story that
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: really jumped out of me, Max, as you talk about
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: he's got some debt coming due over the next several
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: years and uh, there's not a lot of support for
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: the Trump organization in the big banking circles. How do
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: you think that might play out? It is? It is
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: just so important. First of all, big shout out to
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: the design and development team that worked on on this
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: with us. I mean, it's you know, journalism is fun,
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: but it's made so much more vivid and interesting when
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: you get to work with data visualization specialists like the
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: ones we have a Bloomberg. It just makes it so
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: much fun to be a reporter when you're surrounded with
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: so much talent and and what they help us illustrate
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: and bring to life and make three dimensional is that
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: he has a debt problem. I mean, not only does
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: he have hundreds of millions of dollars of loans coming
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: do he's personally on the hook for a for a
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: pretty good chunk of that. And then what's really extraordinary,
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: because look, the reality is a lot of business people
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: have debt coming to a lot of business people have
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: hundreds of millions of debt. A lot of business people
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: even have some personally guaranteed debt. What's so unusual about
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump is in the wake of the capital riot,
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: you saw banks like Dout your bank stand up and
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: say we are not going to do business with you anymore.
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: And that is not good. You do not want to
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: have hundreds of millions of dollars of personally guaranteed debt
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: and to have major global banks, you know, holding their
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: nose and saying we're not going to work with you.
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: So Donald Trump is going to rebound and you know what,
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: you can't discount that because Donald Trump has been in
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: trouble before and Donald Trump has rebounded before. So no
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: one should count this man now, no matter what they say,
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: no one should count this man out. But if he
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: is going to rebound, figuring out that debt is going
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: to be really important, and so well figuring out how
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: we can start making money, making money again in hotels.
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, Trump said, you know, the pandemic would disappear
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: like a miracle, and it hasn't. And that is not
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: good for someone with so much real estate and someone
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: with so many hotels. It's not just the banks that
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: have stopped working with him, right, Umkushman and Wakefield you wrote,
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: used to handle leasing for the Art Deco building downtown. Uh,
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: they don't anymore. Steve Roth, I wonder the guy who
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: runs Bornado he um explored a sale of the company
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: that runs those those buildings, is he gonna still want
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: to work with Donald Trump? Is the p g A
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: gonna want to ever work with Donald Trump again? I
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: mean a lot of these other parties no longer want
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: to be associated since the riot. Well, you know, I
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: think it's helpful to do what Trump sometimes doesn't do,
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: which is to be sort of really specific and and
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: to take things sort of one thing at a time.
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: So with p G A, if you're absolutely right, the
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: PGA of America, you know, um got rid of a
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: tournament next year. Um that was going to be a
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: Bedminster you know what, that's right, But you know what,
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: they had backed out of one golf tournament years ago,
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: and and then and then they got back into business
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: with him. So when it comes to golf, maybe we'll
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: see as the years go on, maybe maybe maybe golf
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: golf will will get get back with him. But then
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: but then there's a question of what happens with his brand.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: You know what, Will he figure out a way of
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: getting seventy four million voters to become customers in a
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: way that bullies his business? You know that that's a possibility,
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: but he's gonna have to figure it out because there
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: isn't a natural path to getting seventy four million people
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: into you know, very expensive hotels or very expensive clubs
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: or very expensive golf courses. And then when you asked
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: about Tornado, you know the reality is that Lornado has
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: not thrown up their hands and said we're going to
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: stop being in business with Trump. But what they have
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: said is that they've looked at putting um these two
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: very big towers that are a huge part of Trump's
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: net worth on the market. So one thing that that
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg leaders and listeners should be on the lookout for
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: is what happens to those tornado towers wanted to Francisco
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: and one in New York. They may hold the key
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: to the future of Trump's business. Fascinating. Hey, Max, thank
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: you so much for joining us. Kudos to you and
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: your team for putting this great piece out. Max Abelson, uh,
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: he is Bloomberg finance reporter. Really a detailed look at
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: the finances former President Donald Trump. Again pegging the value
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: it's something about two point three billion dollars net worth
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: UM and that's you know, partially done by the Bloomberg
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: Billionaires Index, which is rich go one of my favorite functions. Met.
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: I actually got to say, you know, I love scrolling
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: through Max's ticker. I remember about six years ago you
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: did a story on an undocumented woman from Mexico who
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: made it all the way through, jumped to every hoop
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: and became a star employee at Goldman Sachs and it's
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: just written so well and researched so well. Um, it's
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: just it's really touching work. And and then of course
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: these fun pieces like the one he's written on Trump.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: You can check that out on Bloomberg dot com. All right,
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: we are going to talk about something pretty exciting for
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: from my point of view, from from your point of
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: view as well. M Paul. You're a car guy, so um.
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: We've got Chris Bryant coming on. He's one of my
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: favorite opinion calumnists and he writes a lot about cars.
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to that. All right, let's go to
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: a Chris right now. Chris uh, Chris bryan he's colums
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: covering industrial companies for Bloomberg Opinion. Chris, thanks so much
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: for joining us here. Talk to us about the news
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: coming out of Germany. Volkswagen is the latest of the
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: traditional auto companies to really put their chips in the
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: middle of the table on EVS. Tell us what's going
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: on there, chips, Well, high, guys, and and and long
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: story short, it's you know, folks bag into the moon,
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: absolutely extraordinary. Remember this is you know, one of the
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: Germany's most established an important industrial companies in it Saffrance
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: has pretty much done nothing over the last decade or so,
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: and suddenly, uh, you know, just this year, and in
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: particular in the last few days, it's been off to
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: the races. And so far this year the stock now
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: up fifty percent or so, billions and billions of market
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: cap added after Herbert Dee the CEO, announced some pretty
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: exciting electric vehicle plans, really taking the battle to Tesla.
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: And I was writing today as well, also sort of
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: copying some of the ways that Mask has managed to
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: attract excitement for his own company. And what you've seen,
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: as to say, is is Fox barking off to the
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: races now and Tesla suffering a bit real reversal of
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: the trend we've seen over the past year or so.
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: I spoke to Herbert DEECEE as well, No big deal,
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: We talked sometimes, and um, you know the interesting thing is,
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: I I asked him, does it make sense that you're
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: only worth a hundred and thirty billion only? Uh? And
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: and Tesla is worth six hundred and sixty billion dollars
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: in market cap. I mean, Tesla only sold half a
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: million cars last year and Folkswagen is gonna sell a
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: million evs this year among the I don't know how
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: many ten twelve million cars they sell in total. So um.
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: But the question I had, Chris, do you think that
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: Folkswagen's market cap rises to that of Tesla or does
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: Tesla's market cap just need to come down? Oh? If
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: I need to the answer to that, I'd be a
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: wealthier man than I am. I bet you have I
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: bet you have a view though, right, I mean, is
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: is a car maker really going to be worth that much?
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: Where are the margins coming from? I think you know
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: what's been remarkable after the last few years is a Folkswagen,
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: as you say, huge the uh you know, massive company
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: acques revenues, big profits, cash flows, and it's valued at
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: about nine times earnings. And yet you have a company Heller,
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: which in all fantasies company is really great technology, really
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: fast growing, not a lot of profit and and valued
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: that's totally different multiple and and this divergence has existed
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: for a long time, and I think people who bought
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: shares in the established European car makers kind of assumed
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: that it would never change. And that's the exciting thing
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: that's happened over the last few days that really have
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: seen to change now, and even you've got some retail
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: buying of folxwagon stock out of the United States, which
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: might be influencing the The out performance of the ordinary
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: share has a bit compregated, but analysts do think that
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: actually some retail buying is going on here, and that's
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: pretty extraordinary, isn't it. You know, Reddit type amateur invested
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: in the United States buying Folx Wagner ship. I mean,
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: who'd have thought it, but it's happened. Maybe Cathy would.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: Actually there's a little um E t F that follows
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: the same formula as ARC called Moon. It's called Moon,
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: right because Wall Street bets guys like to the Moon.
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: And actually it's outperformed art by ten times this year. Hey, Chris,
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: what's the I guess what a lot of these traditional
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: auto companies are trying to gauge and have been trying
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: to gauge, is just how big is the demand for
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: electric vehicles? Give us your sense of what you're hearing
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: and seeing in Europe. Well, obviously in in Europe the
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: market is really taken off over the past year, and
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: that's partly because you've had governments, you know, sort of
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: demanding that happened, and offering incentives and so forth, and
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: you've seen that, you know, the market responded, and for
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: a long time there's there was a perception, I think
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: in the investment world that Tesla was the only game
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: in town. But what we've seen as the European car
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: make has really come out with a lot of models
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: recently in order to meet their Redditstree compliance obligations in
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: terms of emissions and as such. You know, Tessler really
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: wasn't you know, number one in Europe last Yeah, I
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: think folks about group as a whole was the biggest
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: and now expects I think, you know, analysts is saying
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: within a couple of years will probably be the biggest
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: globally and that thus shouldn't really surprise you. I mean,
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: it's a company that sells ten million vehicles a year.
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: It's said that you know, half of those are going
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: to be electric byty, and if that's the case, and
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: with the kind of muscle and financial power that this
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: company has, then then really, you know, they should be
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: a competitive Testler. The problem has always been that they
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: were a little bit you know, pre occupied with themselves,
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: a little bit too caught up with the government's problems,
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: And for a long time, you know, I didn't really
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: take electric vehicles seriously, and and now they are. They're
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: putting the finance shot muscle behind it, and and frankly,
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: you know, it's quite impressive what they're promising in terms
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: of battery spectories and models over the next few years. Chase,
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: if you your long lost uncle dies leaves you fifty
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: grand right now, you need a car, would you buy
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: electric vehicle or or um would you buy a hybrid?
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: What do you think? Very difficult question, you know, I
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: I think I'll be in the market for a car
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: over the next couple of years. Right now, I live
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: in an apartment building, so recharging it's going to be
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: an issue. And that was something that part was talking
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: about yesterday. To really need expansion of the public charge
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: in network, and it's hoping to do that, all right.
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: Chris yep absolutely. Chris Bryant columus covering industrial companies for
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion. You can read all of his work and
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: that of all of our good folks with Bloomberg Opinion
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com, slash Opinion, or on the Bloomberg terminal.
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: By typing an O p I n GO. Thanks for
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: Miller three. Put on Fall Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: pt Sweeney Before the podcast. You can always catch us
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: worldwide at Bloomberg Radio