Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - MASSIVE Tech BUY Warning + Stock Market News 24 October 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - MASSIVE Tech BUY Warning + Stock Market News 24 October 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream on a day that is so freaking wonderful.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: It's hard to put it into words, isn't it?
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: But at least for us Tesla investors, because did you see what Tesla did last night?
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: It's up what?
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: 14% or something like that.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: As we speak, we're going to run through that, but also all the other good stuff that really matters.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: It's moving stocks, it's moving big tech, it's shaping how we're going to invest over the next few weeks and months, and that's always my goal to make you the best informed investor out there.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: So let's get straight into it.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: I'll share my screen with you.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Here we go Now.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: This is probably the most dull way of summarizing Tesla's earnings, but it's also the only chart that actually matters, because, while we get excited about Tesla's robo tax season announcements and all that stuff, wall Street is run by number crunchers, number pinchers, who have no vision, no real like long-term view of what's going to happen.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: They just look at numbers, and there is one number that they look at, and it's the one that I'm circling here, and that is gross margins.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Gross margins came in at almost 20%, which is significantly better than the sort of 16.8 we were expecting, and that alone would explain the rally we're seeing here this morning.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: There is, of course, a lot more to this story.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: I'm going to run through some of it.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: I've also just recorded a full, like 20-minute video on Tesla or something, so watch out for that coming out shortly.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: It's on the chopping floor right now.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: But, apart from mind-boggling margins and a lot of other announcements, this is probably the one thing that I am most excited about, and it's the energy business, and gross profit here is going through the freaking roof.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: They're running that at about a 30% gross profit margin, which is significantly higher than the car business, so that growing just means there is another business easily the size of what Tesla is doing right now brewing, which is fantastic.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: So there we are Tesla, tesla.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Everyone's shouting while smashing the like button.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: Thank you very much for that, so that's really a big story.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of other stuff there as well.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Like I just put it all together in a video, we've got a lot more specificity, a lot more data on when the RoboCaps are coming out, when FSD is going to be you know, significantly better than humans.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: That's the first half of 2025.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Extraordinary numbers he's putting out there.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: They just had to pull off one of those things and I think that just work on FSD and energy and I think you get to some pretty extraordinary valuation numbers.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: You throw the robots in.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: I mean I can't see how this isn't a $1,000 stock.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Honestly, that's my view.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: It doesn't mean you should put all your money in on this, but Wall Street is right now getting it.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: And if you look at the stock chart here we are at the moment, here at this dotted blue line, there are 245 pre-market, which means we've erased all of the gains and then some of the WeRobot event, which Wall Street weirdly hated, which I thought was way more exciting than the earnings data.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Just so.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: That's a huge gap up.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: And what's really exciting, I think if you click on the little support button here this is in trade vision you see the resistance is now up here at 300.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: And we don't make that line up.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: It doesn't come from the charts, anything like that.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: It comes from actual market positions when is the market positioned and where is therefore going to be some resistance.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: And it's 300.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: I thought last week that was 260 or something.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: I'd have to go back in my video some last week, but that's a big, big range.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: So even though we rallied up to say, 245 here pre-market, we could easily go up another $55 here without hitting our head.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: So very, very good to see.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: I think it's a beautiful setup.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: We should get a lot of volume today, which is going to turn this thing around here.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: Smash through the sort of 260 mark and then you're flying off to 300.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: That's my view, humble view.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Our leaps are printing money this morning, I imagine, though I have no intention of actually selling them anytime soon.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: So very, very excited for what Tesla is putting out here.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: But there is a bit more to what's going on in the markets today than Tesla, although it is lifting up a lot of the market.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Let me show you when did my heat map go.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: This is yesterday, so don't panic.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: This is pre-market here.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: So NVIDIA is up, all the big tech stocks are up, and that's essentially Tesla being up almost 15%.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: That's sort of what does it?
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: It just lifts the mood overall.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Nothing really down a lot.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: What's that?
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Uber is down 3%.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there seems to be an inverse correlation developing between Uber and Tesla, because Tesla, their ride-hailing app, is now available to employees.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: There is a rumor of an Apollo Alto trial coming out so they could take Uber's lunch, although I suspect that Uber will be powered by Tesla Robotaxis.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: It would just be the logical thing.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: If you want to grow fast Everybody wants to grow fast why the heck wouldn't you do it?
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: There's more good news.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: Our lovely Dovey hedge funds are buying stocks at the fastest pace since late 2023 or 2021.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: Buying hand over fist, which is a new thing, because they've been selling for weeks and weeks and weeks.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: So they are turning very bullish.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: They don't want to miss the year-end rally, do you?
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: I certainly don't, so it looks pretty good.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: And then you have all this stuff out there in the news about.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: You know, if Trump wins, there's going to be more inflation.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: If Kamala wins, there'll be more inflation and therefore there'll be less rate cuts.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: And it'll be terrible, terrible.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: But actually it isn't.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: Nice little chart here, I think, courtesy of Bank of America, a slow rate cut cycle gives us a bigger rally in the stock market than a fast one.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Because it means you're not crashing into a recession.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: The economy isn't crashing and burning, you're just lowering interest rates.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: So after the first rate cut historically this was the first cut.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: This was the cut 12 months later, you are literally 25% higher on the S&P.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: So this could literally be the Goldilocks perfect scenario that we've all been hoping for so far popping off, okay, cool, we'll have a look at that in a second as well.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: We'll run through your favorite tech stocks right now as well.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: Small caps haven't really quite had the rally that some were predicting.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: We are back to pretty much all-time cheapness against the high-flying tech stocks, against the NASDAQ, basically.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: So small caps really haven't caught a break yet.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: It means, in theory, the opportunity is still there.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Though, if you think about the world right, what was the whole point of COVID?
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: I think it was basically to kill off small businesses.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: Really, I think that was largely the point.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: It did that very effectively, and large businesses get bigger.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: So small caps, you know a little cautious on it.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: I just think the growth will be in the big boys.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of where my money sits.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Now, if you want to spot those breakouts before they happen and we're going to look at some on the real charts right now I have recorded a 30-minute masterclass where I will literally teach you that breakout and how you spot those rules.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Like PayPal is breaking out right or has done for some time here, the breakout was there.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: We spotted that there was also one here which would have been nice.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: Yet most people tend to buy all the way up there FOMO, buy too late and then they lose lots of money.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: And we've spotted a fair few in the last couple of weeks.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: This was PayPal's breakout here.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: It was a pretty sweet one.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: It's been a really good one here.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Or FOA I'm still in this, for example.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: That was a really nice one here up, I don't know 50%, 60%.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: Philip Morris up, 30%.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: From here.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: I think it's looking pretty sweet again up here where we are right now.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: So lots of these opportunities and there are some of these pretty much every week.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: There's probably a couple.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: Some weeks there aren't, but most of the time we find some.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: So if you want to learn how to spot those, watch the masterclass After this live stream, write down felixfriendsorg, get free and watch that and you know what Most people won't.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Why not?
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Because we're all afraid.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: We're all afraid of change.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: It's just the way we're programmed.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: So we say stupid stuff like I've tried everything, but if you tried everything, you'd have everything you wanted.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: So you haven't.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: It's a lie.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: We tell ourselves to make it a little bit easier to stagnate.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: So don't stagnate, my friend.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: Go to felixfriendsorg slash get free FelixFriendsorg slash get free it's been a long day today and watch it and learn and you'll literally walk away with that breakout pattern and how that really works.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Now I also want to touch upon unemployment data, literally just out, and there are two stories there actually to tell.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: There is the Christmas miracle and then something else Does Winston have predictions for the next breakout?
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: He does, and in fact, we're actually launching a stock investing, stock trading program on Monday, super excited to kick that off Proper mentoring program and we're going to be sharing all my charts for stocks every week in that.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: And Winston'satz too, of course.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: He's very good at it, very large nose.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: He was very sweet.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: I got home this afternoon.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: It's so nice when you get greeted.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: You've got a golden retriever and you get that head buried in your chest and a tail going around in circles, so sweet.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, very happy to be home here for a little while.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: So what's the unemployment story?
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: We have less initial, so we have less virgin unemployed people, which you might say is a good thing, and we have, however, more long-term, continuous unemployed people.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: We're back to where we were in 2021, 1.9 million people, allegedly.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: That number, by the way, is such nonsense, right, it's probably four, five million higher than that.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: It's more like six million.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: But the government, you know, does its thing.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: So what does that tell you?
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: Well, if unemployment's higher, you should get rate cuts, but if unemployment is slowing down, you shouldn't get rate cuts.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: So, in a way, it's actually the perfect story, isn't it?
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: It gives us that slow rate cut journey that we actually want, and it'll actually give us the perfect scenario here.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: Slow rate cuts 25% up over the year after the first rate cut historically.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: So I think it's a pretty sweet setup.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Somehow, government US government manipulates itself to the perfect data and then, yeah, that's obviously what it is, because it's completely made up, but we have to live with the data that we're given.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: So, pretty good stuff.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Shall we look at a couple of charts here?
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Why have I got two windows open?
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: That's mightily confusing, isn't it?
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Let's close one of these.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: There we are.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: So Tesla absolutely flying 245 here, sofi, let's have a look.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: You guys were shouting that out.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: What did I type in here, sofi?
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: Here we go.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Winston for president.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: Yes, the world would be a better place.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: There would be free snacks for everybody, which is just a whole UBI thing, isn't it?
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: He'd probably be in favor of that.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: There's a study out on that today.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: It's horrible, but what it does to people's psyche is it's horrible.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: It's going to lead to all sorts of horrors, but anyway, yeah, so far at 1084, which is absolutely glorious.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: That's the highest we've been since July 2023.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: So the rally is very, very much alive and kicking.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: And, yeah, we had a breakout here.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: We had a breakout somewhere a little earlier too.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: That was the real breakout.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: The real breakout was Volume has been sort of mixed, hasn't it?
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: But yeah, we just get higher highs every time.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: And then we had this whopper here, which is really nice, and earnings aren't even here yet.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: I think earnings are going to be tremendous.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: That's obviously my expectation.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: It doesn't mean it's going to come true, but you know, I believe in the almighty noto.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: Free cucumbers for everybody, yes, certainly for all.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Golden retrievers, palantir here.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: Look at that trend line up.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: This was a breakout, by the way, here, 6th of August.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: You'll learn how to spot that in if you watch my masterclass links down below.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: Literally, you would have spotted that.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Get in at 25.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: And we're right now at 43 and running Resistance is now at $50.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: So $7 room.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Before we hit our head here and look how nicely we are bouncing off that trend line here again and again and again.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: So absolutely loving it.