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GOP PAC, Talarico Raise Record Cash in Final Stretch · Balance of Power

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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios.
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  Speaker 2: Podcasts.
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  Speaker 4: News.
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  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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  Speaker 5: We'll have more on that hotter PPI data this hour
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  Speaker 5: as it's clearly putting a spotlight on on how higher
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  Speaker 5: energy prices are filtering across the U.S.
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  Speaker 6: Economy.
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  Speaker 5: President Trump, of course, continually promises that those energy costs
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  Speaker 5: and prices across the board are going to come down
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  Speaker 5: just as soon as the war with Iran is over.
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  Speaker 5: That's a message that he repeated on the campaign trail
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  Speaker 5: yesterday as he crisscrosses a number of red states yesterday,
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  Speaker 5: of course, being Arizona and Montana, where he was taking
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  Speaker 5: that message on the road. But of course, the war
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  Speaker 5: is not over yet in the Middle East, nor is
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  Speaker 5: the war between Russia and Ukraine. Instead, what we seem
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  Speaker 5: to be seeing there is escalation. As the Ukrainian President
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  Speaker 5: Volodymyr Zelensky told the Financial Times today that he's ordered
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  Speaker 5: a resumption in strikes against Russian refineries, the very energy
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  Speaker 5: infrastructure that President Trump has asked Ukraine to stop targeting
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  Speaker 5: out of concern for what it's doing to diesel prices,
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  Speaker 5: which remain above $ 6 a gallon here.
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  Speaker 7: In the U.S.
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  Speaker 5: But Zelensky, of course, is a bit upset with the
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  Speaker 5: president right now, in part because of the diesel deal
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  Speaker 5: that he struck with Russia last week to allow more
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  Speaker 5: diesel onto the global market. And also because as Russia
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  Speaker 5: was attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure over the weekend, Ukraine felt
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  Speaker 5: that it couldn't defend itself as quickly as it wanted
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  Speaker 5: to because its Starshield service, which is owned and operated
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  Speaker 5: by the Pentagon, was slowed down. It's been quite a
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  Speaker 5: saga that has been playing out over the last number
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  Speaker 5: of days. And to get more on this, we turn
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  Speaker 5: now to the White House, where we find Bloomberg Washington
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  Speaker 5: correspondent Tyler Kendall. So Tyler, it seems that there has
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  Speaker 5: been a real break here and that it's widening. Tell
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  Speaker 5: us more.
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  Speaker 8: Well, when it comes to the conflict in Ukraine, Kayleigh,
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  Speaker 8: we've heard from the Ukrainian president, Zelensky, really saying that
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  Speaker 8: he's going to restart these strikes against Russian oil refineries
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  Speaker 8: amid what was a call by President Trump for a
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  Speaker 8: supposed energy truce, though it appeared evident that neither side
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  Speaker 8: had agreed on it. what a truce would actually look
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  Speaker 8: like before the president announced it. Zelensky said that there
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  Speaker 8: had been a three-day pause in Ukrainian long-range attacks against
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  Speaker 8: Russian refineries, but now they are going to move ahead
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  Speaker 8: as Russia continues to pummel Ukrainian power plants and gas infrastructure.
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  Speaker 8: This is all part of what we have been tracking
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  Speaker 8: at this point for over a week in the push
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  Speaker 8: and pull of the relationship between Washington and Kyiv that
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  Speaker 8: really came to a head last Friday when President Trump
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  Speaker 8: announced that deal for more Russian diesel to hit the
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  Speaker 8: market amid what Kelly has been bipartisan pushback to that
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  Speaker 8: here in Washington, including the fact that the U.S. Senate
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  Speaker 8: had a major win passing that sanctions package bill that
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  Speaker 8: tightened so-called secondary sanctions against importers of Russian energy supplies.
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  Speaker 5: Indeed. Of course, the energy conversation doesn't stop with the
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  Speaker 5: impact of the fighting between Russia and Ukraine. It extends
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  Speaker 5: to Iran as well. As I mentioned, Tyler, the president
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  Speaker 5: once again is promising that prices are going to come
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  Speaker 5: down just as soon as the.
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  Speaker 9: War is over.
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  Speaker 5: He reiterated it to reporters as he was traveling from
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  Speaker 5: Arizona to Montana yesterday.
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  Speaker 8: Listen.
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  Speaker 4: Iran will end very shortly. It's going to be over
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  Speaker 4: very shortly.
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  Speaker 10: And your energy prices will fall very rapidly, very fast.
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  Speaker 10: And remember, oil is less now under Trump with us
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  Speaker 10: taking away the nuclear chance of them destroying, frankly, the world.
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  Speaker 5: So he says it will be over shortly, Tyler. But
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  Speaker 5: what we're seeing in the Middle East and specifically in
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  Speaker 5: the Strait of Hormuz right now seems to be a
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  Speaker 5: growing risk. against commercial shippers that are trying to get
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  Speaker 5: energy products out, not a diminishing one.
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  Speaker 11: Right.
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  Speaker 8: At this point, there's been an uptick in escalation, Kayleigh,
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  Speaker 8: when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz. The New
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  Speaker 8: York Times citing some new tracking data earlier this morning
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  Speaker 8: saying that so far 26 ships have been hit by
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  Speaker 8: projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz so far for October
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  Speaker 8: that is already higher than for the entire month of September.
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  Speaker 8: So we've really seen an escalation when it comes to
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  Speaker 8: this just overnight. And if you're joining us on Bloomberg Television,
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  Speaker 8: you can see some imagery there. We saw a ship
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  Speaker 8: sink in the Strait of Hormuz, actually considered to be
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  Speaker 8: an incredibly rare event, making yesterday's attack all the more
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  Speaker 8: notable as an unknown projectile caused this fire and a
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  Speaker 8: 21-person crew to ultimately have to evacuate. But that is
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  Speaker 8: only one front where we are seeing Potential energy flows
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  Speaker 8: end up being risked, though we should mention that these
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  Speaker 8: flows through the strait have been approaching pre-war levels. And
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  Speaker 8: a lot of this is Iran's bid to try to
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  Speaker 8: retighten its grip over the strait. But now we also
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  Speaker 8: have the Iranian-backed Houthis escalating their fighting. against Saudi Arabia overnight,
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  Speaker 8: targeting a Saudi Aramco facility. Of course, Saudi Aramco, the
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  Speaker 8: largest energy producer in the region. People familiar with the
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  Speaker 8: matter tell us that this attack centered on an office facility.
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  Speaker 8: Three floors were damaged, but Kayleigh, ultimately oil production was
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  Speaker 8: not impacted. But it does go to show how the
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  Speaker 8: Houthis continue to target these very sensitive areas when it
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  Speaker 8: comes to both civilian and energy infrastructure.
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  Speaker 5: And Tyler, before we go to our political panel on
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  Speaker 5: some of these geopolitical issues, I want to ask you
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  Speaker 5: as well about the president, what he's doing right now.
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  Speaker 5: I understand he's speaking at a luncheon in the Rose Garden.
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  Speaker 5: He's talking about the midterms. What has he told the
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  Speaker 5: assembled crowd?
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  Speaker 8: Yeah, so this is at a luncheon held in the
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  Speaker 8: Rose Garden for law enforcement, but he started his remarks
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  Speaker 8: by talking about the midterms. And Foreign policy very much
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  Speaker 8: dovetailing with domestic policy here as Iran and higher prices
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  Speaker 8: remain the number one concerns for American voters going into
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  Speaker 8: Election Day. He's outlining what his domestic travel schedule could
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  Speaker 8: look like next. Says he plans to go to Michigan,
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  Speaker 8: of course, a battleground state where there is a very
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  Speaker 8: competitive Senate race. Also, Iowa and Kansas typically considered to
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  Speaker 8: be red state strongholds, but now both with some very
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  Speaker 8: competitive races. I would point out for the Senate seat
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  Speaker 8: in Kansas, a Democrat hasn't won that seat since 1990. Then, Kayleigh,
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  Speaker 8: some final words when it comes to the Texas Senate race. He,
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  Speaker 8: of course, had endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. He
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  Speaker 8: says in his remarks that Paxton's a little controversial as
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  Speaker 8: we continue to see that that is a closer than
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  Speaker 8: expected race. Again, a Democrat hasn't won statewide office in
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  Speaker 8: Texas since 1994, and President Trump says that he expects
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  Speaker 8: to go back between now and Election Day.
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  Speaker 6: All right.
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  Speaker 5: A little controversial. Tyler Kendall, live on the North Lawn
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  Speaker 5: of the White House for us. Thank you so much.
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  Speaker 5: And I want to turn back to the escalating tension,
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  Speaker 5: it seems, between Ukraine's Vladimir Zelensky and President Trump as
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  Speaker 5: we bring in now our political panel. Rick Davis is
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  Speaker 5: with me, a Republican strategist, Bloomberg Politics contributor, and Stonecourt
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  Speaker 5: Capital partner, alongside Jim Kessler today, Democratic strategist and executive
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  Speaker 5: vice president at Third Way. Rick, once again, we are
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  Speaker 5: seeing this play out in a very public way. Thinking
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  Speaker 5: back to the beginning of President Trump's term when we
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  Speaker 5: saw that very public dispute, in the Oval Office in
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  Speaker 5: which relations between U.S. and Ukraine deteriorated for some time.
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  Speaker 5: And it had seemed that Vladimir Zelensky was able to
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  Speaker 5: repair that in a meaningful way since then, including most
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  Speaker 5: recently meeting with President Trump on the sidelines of the
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  Speaker 5: United Nations General Assembly. last month, but it doesn't seem
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  Speaker 5: to be going in a positive direction now. And I
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  Speaker 5: wonder what you should make, what we should make of
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  Speaker 5: President Trump's once again, it seems pivot away from Ukraine
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  Speaker 5: and toward Russia.
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  Speaker 2: Well, I think he just pivoted away from geopolitical realities
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  Speaker 2: that aren't very positive for him and forced into the
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  Speaker 2: other not very positive reality of U.S. elections in the
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  Speaker 2: next 19 days. So it was a clear line of
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  Speaker 2: demarcation when Donald Trump announced that he'd cut a deal
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  Speaker 2: with Vladimir Putin to start shipping diesel out of Russia,
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  Speaker 2: even though many believe it's illegal based on the sanctions
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  Speaker 2: regime that exists here in the United States. But from
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  Speaker 2: that point on, literally that day, he started criticizing Zelensky
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  Speaker 2: as being a dictator and he ought to have elections,
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  Speaker 2: and he ought to quit attacking Russian oil installations. And
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  Speaker 2: he even announced a ceasefire in of attacking energy resources
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  Speaker 2: in both countries, except that evidently he hadn't talked to
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  Speaker 2: either of the countries about it.
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  Speaker 6: And then what happens, right?
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  Speaker 2: It all goes to pot when Vladimir Putin pays no
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  Speaker 2: attention to Donald Trump and starts attacking energy resources in Ukraine,
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  Speaker 2: and then obviously today's news that Ukraine is counterattacked. The
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  Speaker 2: reality is Trump has one reality that he needs for
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  Speaker 2: the elections, which is, hey, I got you lower diesel prices,
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  Speaker 2: which was all of this. But he was willing to
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  Speaker 2: throw one of our best allies and somebody who has
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  Speaker 2: really fought to protect Europe on his own border under
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  Speaker 2: the bus. And I think voters get the joke on this.
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  Speaker 2: They're much more sophisticated about geopolitics because of the impact
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  Speaker 2: on things like oil prices and gas prices and diesel
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  Speaker 2: prices than they otherwise would be in any other election.
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  Speaker 5: Well, yeah, and to that end, it was noteworthy in
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  Speaker 5: the Iowa Senate debate that we saw earlier this week, Jim,
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  Speaker 5: to see the Republican nominee, Ashley Hinson, actually saying, yes,
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  Speaker 5: we need to bring diesel costs down, but I don't
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  Speaker 5: think we should be doing, I'm paraphrasing her words here,
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  Speaker 5: Russia any favors in order to do it. Do you
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  Speaker 5: think that that's where the electorate is that they, yes,
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  Speaker 5: they want to see their diesel and gas prices lower,
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  Speaker 5: but they aren't necessarily in favor of making Russia a
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  Speaker 5: beneficiary of that alongside them?
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  Speaker 12: Right.
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  Speaker 13: So let's just put aside the repugnancy of Donald Trump
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  Speaker 13: siding with Putin over Zelensky right now.
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  Speaker 6: We'll just set that aside as a given.
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  Speaker 13: Politically, this is an 80-20 issue in favor of Zelensky
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  Speaker 13: and Ukraine. Americans overwhelmingly believe that Putin and Russia are
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  Speaker 13: the bad actors and that Ukraine are the heroes. But
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  Speaker 13: we have a desperate president, who is grasping at straws
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  Speaker 13: because everything is going in the wrong direction. And a
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  Speaker 13: lot of it is going in the wrong direction because
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  Speaker 13: of actions that he alone took. So we have rising inflation,
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  Speaker 13: persistent and rising inflation, and you can name several Trump actions.
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  Speaker 13: The tariffs, the continued uncertainty, and the war in Iran.
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  Speaker 13: And most importantly, voters can name them as well. So
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  Speaker 13: when they are sour about the economy and sour about
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  Speaker 13: the mood and they believe that there is a person
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  Speaker 13: who actually has done those things, they are going to
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  Speaker 13: take it out on that individual. And that is Trump
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  Speaker 13: and the Republican Party. So I was glad to hear
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  Speaker 13: the Iowa Republicans. candidate for Senate saying what she needed
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  Speaker 13: to say. But, you know, there's also there's a gravitational
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  Speaker 13: pull in this election. And it's very hard for Republicans
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  Speaker 13: to get away from Donald Trump. And he is down
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  Speaker 13: between five and 10 points in Iowa. He's an unfavorable
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  Speaker 13: president there. So, you know, there's trouble.
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  Speaker 8: Yeah.
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  Speaker 5: And we're seeing that borne out by the breaks we're
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  Speaker 5: seeing from the likes of Ashley Henson or Mike Rogers
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  Speaker 5: talking about this issue and the war in Iran and
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  Speaker 5: gas prices as well. And you're also seeing it in
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  Speaker 5: some other places you might not expect, including in the
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  Speaker 5: district of Congressman Greg Murphy in North Carolina, who represents
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  Speaker 5: a district that Trump won by, I believe it was
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  Speaker 5: 14 points.
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  Speaker 9: In 2024.
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  Speaker 5: And Trump will actually be nearby when he travels to
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  Speaker 5: North Carolina next Tuesday. He's out with a new ad
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  Speaker 5: talking about essentially the cost of living and these issues.
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  Speaker 10: Listen.
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  Speaker 6: I'm Greg Murphy. I drive to D.C. and across eastern
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  Speaker 6: North Carolina all the time. Gas prices are too high.
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  Speaker 6: I get it. As a husband, I know groceries are
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  Speaker 6: very expensive. I As a doctor and a patient, I
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  Speaker 6: know health care isn't affordable. So I'm working to bring
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  Speaker 6: down costs.
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  Speaker 5: Aside from my personal question as to whether or not
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  Speaker 5: only a husband would understand high grocery prices, Rick, I
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  Speaker 5: wonder what you make of the messaging here and the
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  Speaker 5: decision making on the behalf of his campaign that they
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  Speaker 5: need to put out an ad like this again in
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  Speaker 5: the third district in North Carolina, which Trump won by
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  Speaker 5: 14 points just two years ago.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, first of all, the Republican Campaign Committee for the
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  Speaker 2: House is now moving money, almost $ 4 million, into districts
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  Speaker 2: like Murphy's and some that Trump won by 21. So
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  Speaker 2: I think everybody believes that there's some kind of wave, tsunami,
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  Speaker 2: call it what you want. But at the end of
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  Speaker 2: the day, it's districts like this that if they don't
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  Speaker 2: isolate themselves Trump and start talking about cost of living,
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  Speaker 2: that tsunami can roll right over them.
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  Speaker 5: Well, so, Jim, when we talk about the money that
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  Speaker 5: is flowing into a district like Greg Murphy's or a
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  Speaker 5: Trump 21 district, are you concerned that Democrats may be
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  Speaker 5: spreading themselves too thin, spying too many long shot opportunities
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  Speaker 5: and spreading their resources out too far rather than concentrating
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  Speaker 5: it into areas where a flip may be easier?
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  Speaker 12: Right.
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  Speaker 6: That is the eternal question in this cycle.
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  Speaker 13: I am not worried about that, Kayleigh, because this is
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  Speaker 13: my 19th cycle, election cycle, in Washington, D.C. I've seen
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  Speaker 13: two other cycles like this. 1994 on the Republican side,
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  Speaker 13: that was Newt Gingrich. 2006 on the Democratic side.
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  Speaker 6: And it was the.
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  Speaker 13: Confluence of voters very, very unhappy with the current administration
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  Speaker 13: and And corruption. So 1994 is like the House banking scandal.
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  Speaker 13: And in 2006, it was Congressman Mark Foley and like
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  Speaker 13: sexual allegations being swept under the rug. And we're seeing
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  Speaker 13: that here. And you just have to look at the
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  Speaker 13: I'm a Democrat. You just have to look at the
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  Speaker 13: way the other side is acting. And if the other
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  Speaker 13: side is rushing money to protect a plus 14 district,
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  Speaker 13: believe them. believe them that they have real, real trouble there.
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  Speaker 13: I am expecting, yes, I'm expecting a blue tidal wave.
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  Speaker 13: I think Democrats are going to be over 230 seats
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  Speaker 13: and I think Democrats are going to.
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  Speaker 6: Win the Senate this time around.
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  Speaker 13: The situation is just too bad and Republicans realized it
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  Speaker 13: too late.
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  Speaker 10: Wow.
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  Speaker 8: All right.
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  Speaker 5: Quite the prediction from Jim Kessler. And Jim, we'll be
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  Speaker 5: checking back in with you and Rick over the course
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  Speaker 5: of the next 19 days and beyond once we have
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  Speaker 5: those final results in hand. Our political panel today, thank
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  Speaker 5: you both so much for joining me. And we'll have
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  Speaker 5: more on this midterms climate and what the polling is
• 15:36
  Speaker 5: bearing out right now and how much it should be
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  Speaker 5: trusted as we turn to Don Levy, who runs the
• 15:40
  Speaker 5: Siena College Research Institute. That's up next on.
• 15:43
  Speaker 9: Balance of Power.
• 15:44
  Speaker 7: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
• 15:46
  Speaker 7: more coming up after this.
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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• 16:08
  Speaker 5: It's just 19 days away from Election Day. The midterms
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  Speaker 5: are almost upon us, I guess, for voters in a
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  Speaker 5: number of states across the country. They've already begun as
• 16:19
  Speaker 5: early voting is open in a number of states and
• 16:22
  Speaker 5: is going to be open in even more next week,
• 16:25
  Speaker 5: including on Monday, Texas, which is somewhere that President Trump
• 16:29
  Speaker 5: has focused a lot of his energy thus far. He's
• 16:31
  Speaker 5: made multiple trips there just this month. He just told
• 16:34
  Speaker 5: an assembled group at a White House Rose Garden luncheon
• 16:38
  Speaker 5: that he would travel back to Texas if he needed to.
• 16:40
  Speaker 5: In addition to stops, he's planning in the likes of Michigan, Kansas,
• 16:43
  Speaker 5: Kentucky and Iowa. But on Texas, it especially is in
• 16:48
  Speaker 5: the spotlight today in light of some new fundraising figures
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  Speaker 5: from the Democratic Senate nominee James Tallarico, whose campaign announced
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  Speaker 5: it raised $ 64 million in the third quarter, a record
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  Speaker 5: third quarter for any Senate candidate ever. Of course, more
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  Speaker 5: money than Tallarico has raised has been spent against him
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  Speaker 5: on behalf of the Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton. This
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  Speaker 5: is a Senate race that's ultimate price tag could be
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  Speaker 5: in the range of about half a billion dollars. And
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  Speaker 5: all of the money is feeding into a race that
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  Speaker 5: is incredibly tight. If you look at the latest polling
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  Speaker 5: from the Siena College Recon MR poll, it finds that
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  Speaker 5: James Tallarico is up against Ken Paxton by four points
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  Speaker 5: in their October poll, 48 to 44 percent. But that
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  Speaker 5: margin is narrower than the September poll in which Tallarico
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  Speaker 5: was up by six points. So let's get into that
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  Speaker 5: and other polls that we are watching as we turn
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  Speaker 5: to Don Levy, who's director of the Siena College Research Institute,
• 17:49
  Speaker 5: and is back with us on Bloomberg TV and radio. Don,
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  Speaker 5: it's good to have you back on Balance of Power.
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  Speaker 5: It's been far too long. What exactly is happening in
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  Speaker 5: Texas right now, especially with the money that we are
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  Speaker 5: seeing spent as we get into the late innings, the
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  Speaker 5: late hours here? Is it the money that is leading
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  Speaker 5: to a tightening of Tallarico's edge in your poll?
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  Speaker 12: Well, it's hard to say.
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  Speaker 11: I mean, certainly Texas is ground zero and the Democrats
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  Speaker 11: are excited beyond belief that they might actually pull out Texas,
• 18:21
  Speaker 11: having tried in Texas the last couple of cycles unsuccessfully,
• 18:24
  Speaker 11: of course. But it does appear as though in our poll,
• 18:28
  Speaker 11: we saw a couple of points worth of tightening. Still,
• 18:31
  Speaker 11: in poll after poll, Tallarico has maintained a small lead.
• 18:36
  Speaker 11: So quite possibly his absence from the campaign trail with
• 18:39
  Speaker 11: the flu for about 10 days and the amount of
• 18:44
  Speaker 11: money that's being poured in, most especially, of course, to
• 18:46
  Speaker 11: negative campaigning. We're looking at a battle right now that
• 18:50
  Speaker 11: is ultimately going.
• 18:50
  Speaker 12: To be turnout, turnout, turnout in Texas.
• 18:53
  Speaker 11: There's no question that Republicans favor Ken Paxton. The Democrats
• 18:58
  Speaker 11: favor James Tallarico. So we're fighting on the margins. We're
• 19:01
  Speaker 11: fighting in Texas over the independent voters. And we're, of course,
• 19:04
  Speaker 11: fighting over the Hispanic voters themselves. that moved towards President
• 19:08
  Speaker 11: Trump in 2024 and now have moved back in the
• 19:12
  Speaker 11: Democratic column to some extent. But whether they're going to
• 19:15
  Speaker 11: turn out at the rate at which we're seeing them
• 19:18
  Speaker 11: in the polls is yet to be determined. It may
• 19:20
  Speaker 11: very well be one of the ingredients that decides this
• 19:23
  Speaker 11: race in Texas.
• 19:25
  Speaker 5: You say to some extent, Don, can you quantify that move,
• 19:29
  Speaker 5: that swing back toward the Democratic direction we're seeing among
• 19:32
  Speaker 5: Latino voters?
• 19:34
  Speaker 11: Well, amongst Latino voters in Texas, we've seen leads between
• 19:42
  Speaker 11: eight points to as many as 30 points for Democratic
• 19:46
  Speaker 11: candidates among Latinos in Texas. So this is a movement
• 19:51
  Speaker 11: of about 15 points from where they were in 2024.
• 19:55
  Speaker 12: Why is that the case?
• 19:57
  Speaker 11: Well, certainly many Latinos tell us that they thought that
• 20:00
  Speaker 11: President Trump was going to solve some economic problems that
• 20:04
  Speaker 11: they faced in Texas. And at the same time, some
• 20:07
  Speaker 11: Latinos are telling us that the manner in which ICE
• 20:10
  Speaker 11: is conducting themselves in Texas, in southern Texas, is something
• 20:13
  Speaker 11: that they've had personal experience with. 56% of Texans told
• 20:17
  Speaker 11: us recently that they think that ICE has gone too far.
• 20:20
  Speaker 11: That's well over 65% of Latinos are telling us that.
• 20:25
  Speaker 11: So things are working against Republican candidates. In Texas right now,
• 20:30
  Speaker 11: we see the president's approval ratings desperately underwater, even in
• 20:35
  Speaker 11: a state like Texas, that he carried so comfortably in 2024.
• 20:41
  Speaker 5: Well, of course, you have a high profile Latino nominee
• 20:44
  Speaker 5: for statewide office in Texas as well. Gina Hinojosa is
• 20:47
  Speaker 5: the Democratic nominee for governor running against the incumbent, Greg Abbott.
• 20:52
  Speaker 5: How much, Don, are Gina Hinojosa's numbers and James Tallarico's
• 20:56
  Speaker 5: numbers tied together. I guess another way of phrasing it is,
• 21:00
  Speaker 5: are they both dependent on one another to do well?
• 21:05
  Speaker 12: Well, certainly there's a relationship.
• 21:07
  Speaker 11: In poll after poll, we've seen about a four to
• 21:11
  Speaker 11: seven point difference between how Tallarico is doing and how
• 21:15
  Speaker 11: Hinojosa is doing, with Tallarico doing that four to seven
• 21:19
  Speaker 11: points better. So it appears as though quite possibly Tallarico's
• 21:24
  Speaker 11: coattails are what are.
• 21:25
  Speaker 12: Positively impacting Gina Hinojosa.
• 21:28
  Speaker 11: But you're looking at someone, a state legislator, who has
• 21:32
  Speaker 11: gone from being virtually unknown to to as many as
• 21:35
  Speaker 11: half of Texans, to right now being progressively more well-known
• 21:40
  Speaker 11: and giving Abbott a real run for his money.
• 21:42
  Speaker 12: We've seen poll after poll with either Ino Osa having
• 21:45
  Speaker 12: a small lead.
• 21:46
  Speaker 11: Abbott now in some polls has gotten as much as
• 21:49
  Speaker 11: up by four, still within margins of error.
• 21:52
  Speaker 12: I don't think anybody at the beginning of the cycle
• 21:54
  Speaker 12: thought that. That this would be a contest.
• 21:57
  Speaker 11: In fact, we asked Texans, even in the same poll
• 22:00
  Speaker 11: that we found, you know, also, you know, virtually tied
• 22:03
  Speaker 11: with Abbott.
• 22:04
  Speaker 12: When we said, who do you think is going to win?
• 22:06
  Speaker 11: Texans feel as though Abbott's going to win at 35
• 22:09
  Speaker 11: and more so by 35 points. So still there's a
• 22:12
  Speaker 11: belief in Texas. that Greg Abbott will prevail, even when
• 22:16
  Speaker 11: the polls have them dead even. When you flip that
• 22:18
  Speaker 11: question around to Paxton, Tallarico, not necessarily who you're voting for,
• 22:23
  Speaker 11: but who do you think is going to win, it's
• 22:24
  Speaker 11: a toss-up. So it's within everybody's imagination in Texas that
• 22:32
  Speaker 11: actually a Democrat, this Democrat, James Tallarico, could beat Ken Paxton.
• 22:36
  Speaker 12: You look at their favorability ratings.
• 22:38
  Speaker 11: Continue to see positive favorability ratings for James Tallarico, negative
• 22:44
  Speaker 11: favorability ratings to the tune of about 13 to 15
• 22:47
  Speaker 11: points for Ken Paxton. Obviously, that's one of the numbers
• 22:51
  Speaker 11: that both parties are trying to work with. Certainly, the
• 22:55
  Speaker 11: Paxton campaign is seeking to drive up negatives on James Tallarico,
• 22:59
  Speaker 11: thinking that that can move some.
• 23:01
  Speaker 12: Of these independent voters who right now are on the margins.
• 23:05
  Speaker 8: Hmm.
• 23:06
  Speaker 5: Well, as you talk about Democrats imagining dreaming in Texas, Don,
• 23:11
  Speaker 5: we've seen them do so before and have their dreams crushed.
• 23:15
  Speaker 5: Just look back to Beto O'Rourke, for example, in the
• 23:18
  Speaker 5: race against Ted Cruz. in 2018. And it speaks to
• 23:22
  Speaker 5: this wider conversation as to whether or not Democrats should
• 23:25
  Speaker 5: be believing the polls that they are seeing that shows
• 23:28
  Speaker 5: them with an advantage, not just in Texas, but in
• 23:30
  Speaker 5: other red states, if we look toward Iowa, Alaska, even
• 23:33
  Speaker 5: Kansas now we're talking about. And that goes for not
• 23:36
  Speaker 5: just Senate races, House races, too. And we heard from
• 23:39
  Speaker 5: the House speaker, Mike Johnson, who is, of course, on
• 23:41
  Speaker 5: the road in this final stretch of of the midterms.
• 23:44
  Speaker 5: He was talking in Corpus Christi, Texas this week about
• 23:48
  Speaker 5: how he doesn't necessarily believe the polls. This is what
• 23:52
  Speaker 5: he said, Don. I'll have you respond.
• 23:54
  Speaker 14: And I'm telling you, something is happening right now. It
• 23:56
  Speaker 14: feels like 2024 to me. I'm telling you, the polling
• 23:59
  Speaker 14: is not reflecting this. The polling is not letting everyone
• 24:03
  Speaker 14: know what's really happening. They're under-sampling Republicans. They're over-sampling Democrats.
• 24:08
  Speaker 14: How many of you have answered a political poll in
• 24:11
  Speaker 14: the last six months?
• 24:11
  Speaker 11: No, nobody.
• 24:15
  Speaker 5: He speaks to something we have seen in the past
• 24:18
  Speaker 5: few cycles, specifically an under polling around the popularity of
• 24:22
  Speaker 5: President Trump and Republican candidates. So, Don, what would you
• 24:25
  Speaker 5: tell the speaker as to whether or not he should
• 24:28
  Speaker 5: trust what the figures are saying?
• 24:31
  Speaker 12: Well, I doubt whether the speaker is going to call
• 24:33
  Speaker 12: me up, but.
• 24:35
  Speaker 11: In the last cycle, if there was error in our polling,
• 24:39
  Speaker 11: and we poll extensively all over the country, it was
• 24:41
  Speaker 11: between two and three points in favor of a democratic oversampling.
• 24:47
  Speaker 12: Now, we've taken steps in terms of our sampling methodology,
• 24:50
  Speaker 12: the manner in which we ask the survey. to seek
• 24:53
  Speaker 12: to address that.
• 24:54
  Speaker 11: But even if we are off by two to three points,
• 24:57
  Speaker 11: most of these races, many of which were not thought
• 25:00
  Speaker 11: to be competitive at the beginning of the cycle, are
• 25:02
  Speaker 11: indeed competitive. When you have Sherrod Brown up by three
• 25:06
  Speaker 11: in Ohio, when you have a toss-up in Iowa, when
• 25:09
  Speaker 11: you have a lead for the Democrat in Alaska. We're
• 25:12
  Speaker 11: not even talking about North Carolina anymore, which was a
• 25:15
  Speaker 11: prime race at the beginning of the cycle and now
• 25:18
  Speaker 11: is seemingly conceded to the Democrats from the Republicans, and
• 25:23
  Speaker 11: Maine we have as a toss-up.
• 25:25
  Speaker 12: So I think that the polling is.
• 25:28
  Speaker 11: Fairly consistent across not only polls like ours, the New
• 25:31
  Speaker 11: York Times-Siena poll or the ReconMR-Siena poll. But even we
• 25:35
  Speaker 11: saw polls today from Fox having the president's approval rating
• 25:40
  Speaker 11: desperately underwater, in fact, more underwater than our most recent poll.
• 25:44
  Speaker 12: The president has an effect on this race.
• 25:47
  Speaker 11: Many voters are desperately unhappy with his job performance, most
• 25:52
  Speaker 11: especially when it comes to the cost of living Voting
• 25:55
  Speaker 11: is one chance that these voters have to express that.
• 25:58
  Speaker 11: We know that the Democrats in general, the Democratic Party,
• 26:02
  Speaker 11: is not in and of itself soaring in popularity. What
• 26:06
  Speaker 11: is on the top of mind of voters is they
• 26:08
  Speaker 11: want to change. They want their lives to be better.
• 26:11
  Speaker 11: And so they have an opportunity to vote more so
• 26:14
  Speaker 11: for a change than for the continuity of the party
• 26:18
  Speaker 11: that is currently in power in the Oval Office as
• 26:22
  Speaker 11: well as both houses of Congress.
• 26:25
  Speaker 5: And just finally on this, Don, do you see borne
• 26:29
  Speaker 5: out an enthusiasm gap right now? The speaker was kind
• 26:31
  Speaker 5: of suggesting there is a difference in who's enthusiastic to
• 26:35
  Speaker 5: speak to a pollster or participate in a survey like that.
• 26:38
  Speaker 5: But do you see more enthusiasm on the Democratic side
• 26:42
  Speaker 5: right now? Because that has implications for turnout.
• 26:46
  Speaker 6: We do.
• 26:46
  Speaker 12: We ask people how likely it is that they're going
• 26:49
  Speaker 12: to vote.
• 26:50
  Speaker 11: The numbers of Democrats who say that they are almost
• 26:53
  Speaker 11: certain or very likely is somewhat higher, not overwhelmingly, but
• 26:57
  Speaker 11: five to eight points higher than the Republicans who speak
• 27:00
  Speaker 11: to us. And when we ask them how we ask
• 27:02
  Speaker 11: them specifically, how enthusiastic, how excited are you? about the
• 27:05
  Speaker 11: upcoming election, we do see more enthusiasm amongst Democrats who
• 27:09
  Speaker 11: are taking the poll than Republicans. And you have to remember,
• 27:13
  Speaker 11: we tend to talk about American voters as being either
• 27:16
  Speaker 11: Democrats or Republicans. There's a lot of independents out there,
• 27:20
  Speaker 11: and ultimately it's the independents, whether we're talking about Texas
• 27:24
  Speaker 11: or any other state, who are going to decide this race.
• 27:27
  Speaker 11: And amongst independents, who sometimes tend to vote Republican, who
• 27:31
  Speaker 11: sometimes tend to vote Democratic, where they are right now
• 27:35
  Speaker 11: is overwhelmingly unhappy with the direction of the country, overwhelmingly
• 27:39
  Speaker 11: disapproving of.
• 27:40
  Speaker 12: The job that the president is doing.
• 27:42
  Speaker 11: So despite the fact that they're no big fans of
• 27:44
  Speaker 11: the Democrats, they are fans of change.
• 27:47
  Speaker 5: Don Levy of the Siena University Research Institute. Thank you.
• 27:50
  Speaker 7: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
• 27:53
  Speaker 7: more coming up after this.
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
• 28:02
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• 28:05
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• 28:08
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• 28:11
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• 28:14
  Speaker 5: I'm Kayleigh Lyons in Washington, where President Trump actually is today.
• 28:18
  Speaker 5: He's spending the day at the White House taking a
• 28:21
  Speaker 5: break from what has been a breakneck pace of travel.
• 28:25
  Speaker 5: in this run-up to the midterm elections, which, of course,
• 28:27
  Speaker 5: are less than three weeks away. He has more stops
• 28:29
  Speaker 5: on the books for tomorrow, Saturday, next week, after yesterday,
• 28:34
  Speaker 5: having spent time in Montana and Arizona. Now, he was
• 28:39
  Speaker 5: in Bullhead City, Arizona, of course, a state that he
• 28:43
  Speaker 5: did win in the 2024 presidential election by about five
• 28:46
  Speaker 5: and a half points, and touted that as part of
• 28:49
  Speaker 5: his messaging.
• 28:50
  Speaker 10: Listen.
• 28:51
  Speaker 4: We won Arizona by the largest margin.
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: Think of it.
• 28:55
  Speaker 4: We won Arizona in a landslide. The largest number of
• 28:59
  Speaker 4: votes ever gotten. Remember when all the machines were broken?
• 29:03
  Speaker 4: We had a wonderful candidate. And all those machines were
• 29:07
  Speaker 4: broken on Election Day. And you had a judge that said,
• 29:09
  Speaker 4: we don't care. We're not going to let you do
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: it again.
• 29:15
  Speaker 5: The president did get 1.77 million votes in Arizona in 2024,
• 29:20
  Speaker 5: coming away with 52.2% of the vote to Kamala Harris's 46.7%.
• 29:26
  Speaker 5: But that was two years ago. And the climate is
• 29:29
  Speaker 5: a bit different now. And the president, of course, is
• 29:31
  Speaker 5: suffering under a low approval rating across most polls. So
• 29:36
  Speaker 5: as we consider the climate in Arizona and across the board, uh,
• 29:40
  Speaker 5: Republicans and Democrats, we turn now to a Democratic representative.
• 29:43
  Speaker 5: Congressman Greg Stanton of Arizona's 4th District is joining us.
• 29:47
  Speaker 5: He's a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, the
• 29:49
  Speaker 5: Transportation Infrastructure Committee, as well as the China Select Committee. Congressman,
• 29:54
  Speaker 5: welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio, sir. It's great
• 29:57
  Speaker 5: to have you back on the program. Aside from the
• 30:00
  Speaker 5: claims that the president made around how elections have been
• 30:03
  Speaker 5: run in Arizona in the past and some unsubstantiated claims
• 30:07
  Speaker 5: that previous cycles saw a rigging of those elections, he
• 30:10
  Speaker 5: did indeed win Arizona in 2024. Voters in the state
• 30:15
  Speaker 5: did choose him over Harris. How has the climate in
• 30:18
  Speaker 5: Arizona changed in the two years since?
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: Let me make this first point. Trump lost Arizona in 2020.
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: He won Arizona in 2024. There is no election denialism
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: on our side of the aisle. It's only Donald Trump
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: who says the election is rigged when he loses, but
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: it's perfectly fine when he when he wins. This is
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: a huge problem in America that he has denigrated the
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: election system all over America, particularly here in Arizona. People
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: have lost confidence. They don't trust the elections because of
• 30:54
  Speaker 3: his constant denigration. It is totally inconsistent that he switches
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: depending on whether he won or lost. Now, as to
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: the environment here, look, Democrats are going to do very
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: well here in Arizona. We are going to add two
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: or more new members of Democratic members of the United
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: States Congress. And it is directly related not just to
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: Donald Trump's policies that are increasing costs in the American people.
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: But the American people are angry that the Republicans in
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: Congress have just rolled over and done nothing to stop
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: Donald Trump. They haven't done their jobs in the United
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: States Congress of oversight or checks or balances. So they're
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: really mad at Donald Trump and his policies, but they're
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: even more mad at the Republicans in Congress for not
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: doing their job.
• 31:40
  Speaker 5: Well, and obviously you haven't been just spending time talking
• 31:44
  Speaker 5: about these things at home in Arizona. I know you've
• 31:46
  Speaker 5: been on the trail a bit yourself, a trip to Iowa.
• 31:48
  Speaker 5: You're heading to Pennsylvania later this month as the chair
• 31:51
  Speaker 5: of the New Dem Coalition's political arm. And we know
• 31:54
  Speaker 5: that there are opportunities that Democrats are spying in places
• 31:59
  Speaker 5: like Iowa, for example, Marionette Miller Meeks District or in Pennsylvania,
• 32:02
  Speaker 5: where there's a number of Republicans who look vulnerable this cycle.
• 32:07
  Speaker 5: But how do you guarantee that you aren't overreaching and
• 32:12
  Speaker 5: manage expectations. Do you see a risk that you and
• 32:15
  Speaker 5: your New Dem colleagues, your Democratic colleagues at large could
• 32:18
  Speaker 5: end up disappointed by the sheer number of seats that
• 32:20
  Speaker 5: have been put out there as potential flips?
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: I am the chair of the New Democratic Caucus Political
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: Action Committee. So I work on the political side to
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: try to get as many moderate Democrats elected around the country.
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: It is these moderate Democrats that are going to win
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: in the most competitive seats. because they're able to not
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: only hold Democratic votes, but get independents to support them
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: and moderate Republicans. That is the formula to win in
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: these most competitive seats, including seats that Trump won in
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: previous elections. And when it comes to managing expectations or overreach,
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: I would politely argue that that is mostly a function
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: of political talking heads. We're in the arena. We're the
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: ones running these elections. We're not talking about any of that.
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: We are just fighting to support these candidates, to help
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: these candidates in their fight to win in these toughest seats.
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: So I have no idea how many seats we are
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: going to win. All I know is that poll after
• 33:19
  Speaker 3: poll shows us winning right now in Republican majority seats,
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: including seats up to R plus eight, R plus nine.
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: If we can fight right through the end, run through
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: the tape, if you will, I think we're going to
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: have a very strong election night, regain the majority, and
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: make Hakeem Jeffries Speaker of the United States House of Representatives.
• 33:41
  Speaker 5: Well, as you speak, Congressman, of electing moderate Democrats, there are,
• 33:45
  Speaker 5: of course, some candidates in this cycle who wouldn't easily
• 33:48
  Speaker 5: fit into the moderate basket, who are, in fact, quite progressive,
• 33:51
  Speaker 5: in some cases, actual members of the Democratic Socialists of America.
• 33:55
  Speaker 5: And your colleague, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the congresswoman from New York,
• 33:59
  Speaker 5: is actually in Michigan today rallying alongside Democrats. Abdul El-Sayed,
• 34:03
  Speaker 5: the Democratic Senate nominee in Michigan, who, while not actually
• 34:07
  Speaker 5: a DSA member, is obviously quite progressive and has become
• 34:10
  Speaker 5: a kind of boogeyman in this election cycle, someone that
• 34:13
  Speaker 5: Republicans are having all Democrats answer for. Do those kind
• 34:18
  Speaker 5: of candidates make your job harder and your goal of
• 34:22
  Speaker 5: electing more moderates to Congress harder?
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: No, the Democratic Party is a big tent party. But
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: the truth is the majority, winning the majority, which is
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: what our goal needs to be, we are going to
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: win the majority because of the moderate candidates winning in
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: the toughest seats, Republican majority seats, seats that Trump won,
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: candidates that are with military service backgrounds, doctors, teachers. people
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: with incredible professional, successful backgrounds who have come forward to
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: be a patriot and fight to restore checks and balances
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: in the United States of America.
• 35:03
  Speaker 12: Those candidates who tend to be.
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: More moderate and will be part of our coalition, they're
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: the ones that are going to deliver the majority for
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: the American people. A lot of what you're talking about
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: has to do with Democratic primaries earlier on the primary
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: season where DSA candidates were able to win in heavily
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: blue areas, overwhelmingly Democratic districts. And so, you know, that's
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: interesting to talk about and think about, but it doesn't
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: help the majority because those seats go from a Democratic
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: candidate to another Democratic candidate. What we're talking about is
• 35:36
  Speaker 3: the ability to beat Republicans in Republican majority seats. That's
• 35:40
  Speaker 3: how you win the majority. The biggest story on the
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: day after the election is not going to be about
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: DSA candidates. It's going to be about the fact that
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: Democrats won the majority. Akeem Jeffries will be the next speaker,
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: and we're going to restore checks and balances to our
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: United States government. That is the biggest story of this
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: political season.
• 36:02
  Speaker 8: All right.
• 36:02
  Speaker 5: Well, your optimism is well noted, Congressman. I want to
• 36:04
  Speaker 5: ask you before we let you go about some geopolitical
• 36:07
  Speaker 5: questions as well, given your seat. on the Foreign Affairs Committee.
• 36:10
  Speaker 5: We are seeing, once again, a rift playing out in
• 36:14
  Speaker 5: public between the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and President Trump, who,
• 36:18
  Speaker 5: of course, last week announced this deal with Russia to
• 36:20
  Speaker 5: bring more Russian diesel onto Ukraine. the global market. There's
• 36:24
  Speaker 5: the question of what exactly happened with Starshield and the
• 36:27
  Speaker 5: slowing of Ukraine's ability to access internet service through that mechanism,
• 36:33
  Speaker 5: what role the administration might have played. What, if anything,
• 36:37
  Speaker 5: can Congress do about this if President Trump decides that
• 36:41
  Speaker 5: he no longer is willing to support Ukraine to the
• 36:43
  Speaker 5: same extent that the U.S. has been thus far?
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: Well, he's effectively already made that decision. It's clear that
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: when Trump became president, the solid support that the United
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: States had provided the people of Ukraine in their own defense,
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: because it was an illegal and horrific invasion by Putin's
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: Russia into Ukraine. Yes, it's clear that Donald Trump changed
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: American policy in that regard. But let's talk about that
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: diesel deal. Could you imagine now we're going to be
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: putting billions of dollars into Putin's Russia, even though that
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: is illegal, it's completely self-defeating. And there's no indication that
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: that will actually reduce diesel prices here in the United States.
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: But we are going to sell out our partners and
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: sell out the people of Ukraine, put their lives at
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: risk for the possibility of the possibility that diesel prices
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: may be reduced, but do so in a way in
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: which we are helping Putin, helping putting billions of dollars
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: into Russia, that is totally unacceptable. It's the reason why
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: Democrats and Republicans in both the Senate and the House
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: have responded so strongly in a negative way, telling Trump,
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: don't do this deal. And oh, by the way, it's
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: already illegal for diesel to come into the United States
• 38:03
  Speaker 3: from Russia. There's a 2022 law that was passed in
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: a bipartisan way that says until Russia fully removes itself
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: from Ukrainian territory, we cannot allow Russian diesel into the
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: United States. So it is both wrongheaded, it's immoral, and
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: it's illegal what Trump is proposing to do.
• 38:21
  Speaker 5: All right, Congressman, thanks for joining us. On balance of power,
• 38:26
  Speaker 5: that's Democratic Congressman Greg Stanton of Arizona's 4th District. And
• 38:30
  Speaker 5: as we have this conversation around diesel prices and the
• 38:33
  Speaker 5: president's attempts to bring it lower, you can see the
• 38:36
  Speaker 5: result that those higher prices are having across the economy
• 38:39
  Speaker 5: borne out in today's PPI data. Much hotter than expected
• 38:44
  Speaker 5: wholesale inflation. In fact, the fastest rate we have seen.
• 38:47
  Speaker 5: in about four years. So for more on this, we
• 38:49
  Speaker 5: turn to Reid Pickert, who is our team leader for U.S.
• 38:52
  Speaker 5: economy coverage here at Bloomberg. So Reid, these figures are
• 38:56
  Speaker 5: very striking. Even the core metric, X-ing out food and
• 38:58
  Speaker 5: energy is up 5% year on year. Does that speak
• 39:02
  Speaker 5: to the fact that it is no longer exclusively an
• 39:05
  Speaker 5: energy story?
• 39:06
  Speaker 14: It's a great point.
• 39:07
  Speaker 9: So in today's data, it's primarily an energy story, but
• 39:09
  Speaker 9: you are starting to see those signs of that energy
• 39:12
  Speaker 9: shock spilling into other parts of the economy. when you
• 39:15
  Speaker 9: see transportation and warehousing costs up, when you see food
• 39:18
  Speaker 9: prices up, when you see wholesaler margins up, that is
• 39:22
  Speaker 9: the kind of thing that when we think about the
• 39:23
  Speaker 9: pipeline inflationary pressures that we've been watching for, those are
• 39:27
  Speaker 9: the types of things that we're looking for. And when
• 39:29
  Speaker 9: you put that with yesterday's CPI data, where we also
• 39:33
  Speaker 9: saw broad-based strength in terms of inflation and that core
• 39:37
  Speaker 9: measure also coming in hotter, it certainly supports the case
• 39:40
  Speaker 9: for rate hikes in the future.
• 39:42
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I guess it's a question of whether that rate
• 39:43
  Speaker 5: hike is going to come in a couple weeks just
• 39:45
  Speaker 5: before the midterms or if the Fed might decide to
• 39:48
  Speaker 5: wait until December. They have other data that they're going
• 39:50
  Speaker 5: to be considering when making that decision too, including the
• 39:53
  Speaker 5: retail sales figures. This is in large part also a
• 39:56
  Speaker 5: story around gas, right? Because you had a very different
• 39:59
  Speaker 5: figure on the headline than on the control group.
• 40:02
  Speaker 9: That's a great point. So when we think about retail sales,
• 40:04
  Speaker 9: it's always important to remember that it is not adjusted
• 40:06
  Speaker 9: for inflation. So given that we saw such a steep
• 40:09
  Speaker 9: increase in gasoline prices in September, that was really reflected
• 40:13
  Speaker 9: in the retail sales data. So we saw gasoline surge
• 40:17
  Speaker 9: in the CPI, we saw gasoline surge at the gas tank,
• 40:20
  Speaker 9: at the pump, seeing prices like around $ 4. 50 a gallon.
• 40:27
  Speaker 9: And when you looked at the details of this report,
• 40:29
  Speaker 9: it wasn't all bad news. There were still some signs
• 40:32
  Speaker 9: of discretionary spend. So for instance, we saw consumers spending
• 40:36
  Speaker 9: at restaurants. We saw them spending on furniture. But that
• 40:39
  Speaker 9: core gauge that really strips out some of these more
• 40:42
  Speaker 9: volatile components and gives a better sense of underlying demand
• 40:47
  Speaker 9: was much slower than that headline number. But I would
• 40:50
  Speaker 9: want to put this in the context of the prior month.
• 40:52
  Speaker 9: Retail sales can be quite volatile from month to month.
• 40:56
  Speaker 9: And August was this blockbuster number. And we really saw
• 41:00
  Speaker 9: Americans splurge across a wide range of merchants. So just
• 41:05
  Speaker 9: because we see some weakness in that underlying number now, yes,
• 41:09
  Speaker 9: maybe growing signs that inflation is starting to bite and
• 41:13
  Speaker 9: that wage is not keeping up with inflation. But at
• 41:16
  Speaker 9: the same time, it could also be consumers just taking
• 41:18
  Speaker 9: a breather.
• 41:19
  Speaker 6: All right.
• 41:19
  Speaker 5: Reed Pickert, helping lead our U.S. economy team here at Bloomberg.
• 41:23
  Speaker 5: Thanks for joining us on this early edition of Balance
• 41:25
  Speaker 5: of Power.
• 41:28
  Speaker 7: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
• 41:31
  Speaker 7: sure to subscribe, if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,
• 41:34
  Speaker 7: or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find
• 41:37
  Speaker 7: us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at noontime Eastern
• 41:40
  Speaker 7: at Bloomberg.com.