Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 519 - 5/27/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 519 - 5/27/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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54321 all systems go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
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welcome to episode 519 of the all systems go sports betting
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podcast powered by rhythm. I am your host Josh Applebaum.
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What's going on everyone? Happy Wednesday.
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It's officially hump day and the final week of the month of May
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and we got a lot to get to on today's podcast.
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We're going to get right back to Major League Baseball.
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Raise your hand if you love betting MLB.
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I think you love betting MLB, specifically yesterday.
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Bust out the brooms, baby. Recap here in a second.
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But I do have another 3 pack of sweats lined up for you today,
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guys. A couple late games tonight, 640
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PM 7:40 PM. But I also have a late afternoon
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day sweat here if you have, I don't know, a couple a couple
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seconds to put in a bet. And maybe, you know, if you're
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stuck in your cubicle at work or whatever you're up to or you're
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like me, you work from home. Hopefully you got to you have an
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opportunity to, you know, track this game and sweat this game.
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And it's always nice with a day game because I feel like if you
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win your day game, it just you know, it gets you pumped, it
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gets you excited, gets your day started off on on a good note.
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Obviously, if you lose your first game, then you're already
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like O and one you're you're in the hole.
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It's almost like, you know, betting the you know, the coin
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toss in the Super Bowl, you bet heads and it's tails and you're
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like, damn, the game didn't even start and I'm already down a
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unit or a half unit or whoever you end up betting on those
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props. But either way, guys, if there's
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value, regardless of the time we're going to get down and the
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early game happens to be a team that's treated us pretty well
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this year and particularly in particular recently as well.
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So another 3 pack of MLB sweats. We're going to try to go 2 and 1
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eek out a winning day. And then I also wanted to give a
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quick announcement here because you know me again, if you've
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been listening to this pod, basically we do not bet soccer
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or football as it's called like ever.
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So I'll be honest with you guys, I have never been an MLS game.
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I don't bet you know European soccer, but I do dabble a little
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bit in the World Cup. I'm very novice.
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I do try to approach it from a data-driven perspective, looking
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at line movement, looking at, you know, system matches and
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looking at percentages and splits and taking into account,
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you know, recommendations from people that I respect.
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But it got me thinking, I don't know if I'm going to bet every
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World Cup game. We might dabble a little bit.
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It's almost like March Madness when you, you don't, you don't
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bet college hoops all year. But the madness is here.
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So let's have a have some fun. Got me thinking too, because my,
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my buddy is hosting a World Cup, you know, basically party
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cookout. His wife is Brazilian.
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So we're going to be grilling some awesome Brazilian food and
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hopefully looking at a USA versus Brazil matchup.
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Although I don't know what games we played.
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It's a Saturday and a couple weeks from now anyway.
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But it got me thinking. A whole roundabout way of me
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telling you this is that, you know, I've been looking to do
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another Survivor contest. And if you've done a few with
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me, we started teaming up with Splash Sports.
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What about two years ago at this point?
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Or maybe it was the start of last year, I guess going on to
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our second year, I should say, But I love Splash Sports.
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My buddy James Santor does a great job.
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He really got me introduced because he joined Splash Sports.
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And Daniel Childs is also great. He he runs it as well.
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But we had some some fun with the Survivor contest for the NFL
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season and the playoff survivor. And I just happened to go on
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Splash Sports and I'm like, OK, there's these World Cup survivor
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contest going on. And I got to starting to think
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about it. And I, I said to myself, why
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don't we do a survivor contest for the World Cup?
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So hey, don't have it yet. Fired up.
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I got to contact my, my people at splash boards, get the whole
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thing set up and get the parameters correct.
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And again, soccer is not my strong suit.
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I know everyone when they are like in, you know, elementary
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school or younger, everyone played soccer.
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I never played soccer. I played baseball, I played
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hockey. But anyway, I don't know all the
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intricacies. So I was looking at, OK, will
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the survivor include the group stage or will also just start at
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the knockout stage? But I'm starting to get some
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info, get some insight. If you have recommendations, let
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me know. But I'm I'm almost guaranteed
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here to be unveiling a FIFA World Cup 2026 survivor contest.
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So we'll call it the the Applebaum World Cup survivor,
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the ASG Pod World Cup Survivor, whatever it may be, we'll find a
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cool name for it. But it does start June 11th.
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It goes all the way until July 19th.
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So it's like a full month as as you remember, and we will be
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launching this soon, so stay tuned.
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It'll probably be 25 bucks per entry.
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And I'm just looking at the odds right now.
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I'm on polymarket. So again, with the Survivor
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contest, the whole point is that, you know, on the one hand,
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it's just survive in advance because if if you lose, you're
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done. But then the other angle is, you
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know, you don't want to waste your really good teams early.
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You want to, you know, hold on to some of these teams late.
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Like we did a Survivor for, for what was it, March Madness?
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And, you know, you didn't want to burn Michigan early or, you
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know, another great team that was going to yeah, they're going
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to advance, but you're not going to win the Survivor contest if
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you've used all the good teams or the champion too early.
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So as I mentioned, I'm looking at Poly market right now, Spain
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is the favorite, 17% chance, they're tied with France also
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17%. England is 11%, Portugal 11%,
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Brazil 9%, Argentina, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Colombia,
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Belgium, Morocco. I'm looking for the USAUSA, 1%
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chance to win it all. So with that being said, when
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you enter the ASG World Cup survivor, do you want to use
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Spain as your first play? I mean, they're probably going
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to win, but what if Spain wins at all and then you've already
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used them? So again, this is just the
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strategy as a former president you used to call it that you got
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to you got to abide by here. But anyway, whether you are a
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once every four year soccer better like me, I only bet the
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World Cup or you are a die hard soccer better.
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Either way, you're going to get an opportunity here to you know,
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test your knowledge, throw in 25 bucks and hopefully when I don't
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know a couple thousand here. So stay tuned for that.
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I will have the link for you shortly, but World Cup survivor
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contest coming to you soon. Now that being said, looking
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back toward last night, guys bust out the brooms 3 and O +
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2.31 units. You love to see it.
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Had a nice winter there early with the snakes Arizona
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Diamondbacks winning seven to five members.
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Saw that sharp line move toward Arizona where the Arizona
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Diamondbacks again, they were kind of hovering around like,
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you know, minus one O 5 -, + 100 minus one O 2.
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Some shops they closed as a short favorite, minus 1110 or
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so. But we basically had line moves,
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a little bit of line moving, but mostly it was the splits.
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And shout out to rhythm because I always try to mention this,
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you know, rhythm when they have those recommended plays all
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lining up on one team. And that coincides with the
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market. And we also have a smart signal
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in green. I love that.
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So that was a good rhythm play and the Diamondbacks came
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through. Shout out to Katel Marte, who
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continues to rake. Had a nice winner with the
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Brewers. 6 to nothing. Didn't have to sweat that one.
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That line really moved. You might have gotten it like
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-180 -, 190 close like -210 -, 220.
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So hopefully you got a better number.
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But either way, you got a winner with the Brew Crew and then the
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Red Legs getting it done, jumping on Peterson early,
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Corbin Burns, Corbin Burns, Chase Burns, pitch the gem and
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we got a winner there. Seven to two against the Mets,
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So 3 and O + 2.31 units. Little Fred Astaire dance at the
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sports book. But we are not going to, you
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know, get cocky, get arrogant, think betting is easy because
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it's not. But it will give us a little
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confidence, hopefully in the challenge, embracing the
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challenge of now trying to get a good hot streak going here,
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which is always the goal. So that being said, let's waste
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no more time because I do have a day game for you.
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We're going to go right back to the Bay, San Francisco, where
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the G men are hosting our favorite team, the Arizona
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Diamondbacks at 3:45 PM Eastern Time today.
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So let's talk line moves, pitching, matchup, bet split
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system matches. And I'll give you my play here
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for this one. Now the D backs who are 30 and
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24, they've won the first two games of this three-game series.
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They won the opener six to two as a + 110 road dog.
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Won again yesterday, 7 to 5 as a -1 O 5 Road Dog.
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Now in this late afternoon series finale, the Snakes are
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going to go with the ready Michael Soroka 6 and two 3.27
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ERA. Giants, meanwhile, going to go
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with the ready Trevor McDonald Two and one 4.76 ERA now.
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What are we seeing across the market?
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Well, this one's been a little bit tricky because this one's
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been back and forth. Now we open this game around
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Arizona, short -120 road favorite San Fran, around a +
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100 home dog. And early in the day when I
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wrote about this game for the Sharp report for visa.com, when
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I put the best bet into the app for Juice Rail, it was pretty
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clear smart money was moving toward Arizona because Arizona
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went from -120 up to -130 even -135 And I saw that sharp line
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move and I really saw these great bet splits as well.
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The D backs at DK 79% bets, 87% dollars.
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They have the correlative betting favorite low total.
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So total of 7 1/2. Fewer amount of expected run
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scored. More likely to come from quote
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UN quote that better team. Diamondbacks with the better
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bats in general. 315 on base four O 6 slug, 252 run scored.
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G men, 295 on base, 390 slug, 2O2 run scored.
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I wanted to back Soroka. He's got a 1.48 ERA and four May
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starts. He's only given up 4 earned runs
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and 24.1 innings pitched. McDonald on the other hand, 6.75
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ERA at home this year versus 3 on the road.
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So he's been decent on the road but bad at home.
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And then Arizona as well when they are a favorite against a
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losing team. So they're a favorite against a
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sub 500 team. They're 12 and 571 percent, 19%
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ROI. That's the third best chalk
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record against losing teams this season.
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So I, I say all that because it was very clear this line was
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shooting up toward Arizona and most books were at -135 and I
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did find Arizona at -130 So I jumped on Arizona earlier today
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-130 Now since that time, this line has come back down toward
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San Francisco because I'm now seeing the Diamondbacks down to
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-120 some shops even down to -115 So what are we going to do
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here? Well, on the one hand, we still
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have a 14% sharp mush edge from our friends at Juice Reel on
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Arizona. So even though this line has
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come back down towards San Fran, still Juice Reel sharps guys and
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gals that like you out there listening are also going
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Diamondbacks. And I popped open rhythm and saw
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two rhythm recommendations still on Arizona.
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Even though the sign has fallen, still Juice Reel and rhythm
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around Arizona. So in situations like this, a
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lot of times I'll get Adm or a, you know, a tweet or an e-mail
10:57
or something and say, do you still like Arizona?
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Well, I'll be honest with you. I don't like him as much because
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I got to respect this line dropping towards San Fran.
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But I'm still playing Arizona as friends of mine, King W
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Kunetzar, my buddy Darush, We, we have a phrase you like to
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say, dance with the one who brung you.
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So if you make a bet and again, we all, we all want to make a
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bet and then have the line move further in our favor.
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That's what closing line value is all about.
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But sometimes you make a bet, line goes against you a little
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bit. So some people freak out.
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They try to buy out the bet. They try to bet the other side.
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I am a dancer, the one who brung me.
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And the joke I always make is, you know, the 9th, 9th grade
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homecoming dance. You know, Rachel asked you to
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dance before the dance. Maybe a cuter girl later in the
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night says, oh, you want to dance with me?
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No, you dance with Rachel. You dance with the one who brung
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you. So I'm sticking with the D
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backs. I got a bad -130 but we still
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have good splits, better bats, hopefully better pitching.
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Arizona great against sub 500 teams.
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We still have the sharp mush edge.
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We still have rhythm. So I don't love this line
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dropping back a little bit. But I'm sticking with my -130
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I'm still rooting for the snakes.
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And if you want to join, you can get -115 -, 120.
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So I'm still going to Arizona. Again, I'm holding a bad -130.
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You can get a better number if you haven't got it yet.
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Next one for you. 6:40 PM Eastern Time, first pitch, let's
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go to Pittsburgh where the Pirates are hosting the Chicago
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Cubs. Now Pirates come in 29 and 26 on
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the year. I got the over 78 1/2 win total,
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so let's just stay above 500. But they have taken the first
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two games of this four-game set. They won the opener 2 to one as
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a + 105 home dog. They won again yesterday 12 to
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one as a -, 140 home favorite. So pitching matchup for tonight
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Cubs who are 29 and 26 by the way they've lost 10 games in a
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row. So they got to win tonight right
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not so fast. They're going to go with Jameson
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tie on the righty 2 and four 5.2 O ERA this year.
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Pirates, meanwhile, going to go with the fellow ready Bubba
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Chandler one and six 4.79 ERA this year.
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So. What have you seen across the
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market? Will this game open with the
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Pirates listed around a -, 115 home favorite Chicago, A -, 1 O
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5 road dog. Some books are kind of closer to
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a pick em like -110 both sides. But the sharps are not saying,
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yeah, Chicago's do. They're a good team.
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They've lost ten in a row. They have to win tonight.
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That's what gambler's fallacy would say.
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I always make the comparison because it really illustrates
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what gambler's fallacy is. It's when you bet on something
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just because you think it's due, when in reality, each, you know,
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game is an individual matchup. But what happened previously,
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you know, really doesn't matter. All that matters is this game
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here today. So the, the example is always
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the roulette table. You know, you're in Vegas,
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you're walking up to the roulette table, everyone's
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crowded around. You know, they're dressed nicely
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and you know, they got their, their martinis in.
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And then, you know, people are putting chips down on the table.
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You see it land on red five times in a row.
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Most people would say, OK, I am betting the house on black
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because Reds hit so much. It's got to be black the next
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time. But Nope, it might just be red
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again. So here's the thing.
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Even though Cubs have really struggled, wise guys we know are
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still fading. The Cubs thinking that this win
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streak or this losing streak hopefully will go to 11 because
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the line has moved further toward the Pirates.
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Pirates went from -110 -, 115 now up to -120 -, 125.
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We have 62% of money line bets, 67% of money line dollars on the
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Pirates. Over at Circa in Vegas, 55% bets
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92% dollars on on Pittsburgh. So really good split at both
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books but in particular at Circa system match here.
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If you are a sweet spot home favorite -140 or less you are
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146 and one O 858% with a 4% ROI this year.
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So that has been a good angle that short home favorite.
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Pittsburgh has the better bats hitting two 52270 runs scored.
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Chicago hitting two 36255 runs scored.
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If we dig a little deeper into the hitting, hopefully an
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advantage for Pittsburgh because they're hitting 278 at home this
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year. That's the best in baseball and
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they are hitting 253 against Righty's.
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That's 6th best in baseball. You know the Cubs are hitting
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2:30 on the road, that ranks 22nd and they're hitting 229
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against Righty's that ranks 24th.
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In addition, I want to fade tie on.
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He has posted a 6.53 ERA and four May starts has given up 15
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earned runs and just 20.2 innings pitched.
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Meanwhile, Chandler 450 ERA in form A starts, giving up nine
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runs in 18 innings pitched. So he's got about two ERA less
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over the past month versus tie on and then little home Rd.
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Nothing crazy, but Pittsburgh is a winning team at home 15 and
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13, Chicago 11 and 15 at home or sorry, on the road.
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So we have a little bit of line movement toward Pittsburgh.
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We have some good splits. We got a good system match,
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better bats, hopefully, hopefully Chandler greater than
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tie on here. And then also noticed a 33%
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sharp mush edge on Pittsburgh from our friends at Juice Reel.
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So a lot of the sharp betters there who have downloaded Juice
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Reel synced up their books, also going with the Pirates and then
16:15
also popped open rhythm and saw two recommended plays, both on
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Pittsburgh. So add it all up here, guys.
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I'm going Pirates now. I got pirates -112 little bit
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earlier today at Bally Bet. I think they might be still -115
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at Bally Bet. But the rest of the market here
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is -120 -, 125. So just try to get as close to,
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you know -120 or less as you can.
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But let's go Bucko's last bed of the night, 7:40 PM Eastern Time.
16:44
Let's go to Kansas City where the Royals are hosting the New
16:48
York Yankees. The Yankees come in 33 and 22 on
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the year. They've won the first two games
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of this three-game series. They won the opener 4:00 to 3:00
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as a -, 135 road favorite. They won again yesterday 15 to 1
17:01
as a -, 200 Rd. favorite. So tonight's series finale, the
17:05
Yankees are going to go with the ready Garrett Cole.
17:07
Oh and oh, 0.00 ERA pitched well in his debut after he was out
17:13
for a while with Tommy John. Royals, meanwhile, 22 and 33 on
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the year, they're they are going with the lefty Noah Cameron.
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He's two and three with a 4.72 ERA this year.
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So what we seen across the market?
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Will this game open? New York listed around a -, 145
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road favorite Kansas City around a + 125 home dog and sharps.
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They're riding the the Yankees here, seeing if they can get a
17:35
sweep because we've seen this line move further toward the
17:38
Yankees. Yankees have gotten steamed up
17:40
-145 up to -155 I see some books even as high as -160 so pretty
17:47
good one way movement in favor of the Bronx Bombers.
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That's what's look good on the Yankees. 92% money line bets,
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96% money line dollars at DK at circa 89% money line bets, 97%
18:01
money line dollars. So big pro and Joe, one way
18:04
split, which aligns with the line move toward the Yankees
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system match for you. If you're a road favorite -150
18:11
or more and you're coming off a win, the Yankees qualify here.
18:15
Those teams are 26 and 1268 percent, 7% ROI this year.
18:20
Yankees would also have that additional betting system value
18:24
as a non division favorite. So lack of familiarity,
18:27
hopefully benefiting quote UN quote the better team.
18:30
Yankees bats have been better than the Royals this year.
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They're hitting two 42333 on base, 439 slug, 273 run scored
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versus Casey, hitting two 36311 on base, 377 slug and 211 run
18:47
scored. If this becomes a bullpen game,
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let's let's hope cold pitch is great and the bats get to
18:52
Cameron. But even if we got if we need
18:54
the bullpen to come through, hopefully the Yankees do they
18:57
have an ERA of 3.44 out of the pen.
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That is the 11th best in baseball.
19:02
Royals 4.89, that ranks 27th, one of the worst mentioned
19:07
Gerrit Cole earlier, but he's making a second start, as we
19:10
mentioned, and in his debut pitched pretty good.
19:13
He went up against the Rays, he went six innings, only gave up
19:17
two hits, zero earned runs. So hopefully he can pitch well
19:21
again here tonight. Royals, meanwhile, and Cameron's
19:24
last eight starts, they're one and seven.
19:26
So hopefully we can fade Cameron once again and get a win.
19:29
And then by the way, Yankees 16 and 13 on the road, winning
19:32
record. KC 15 and 16 at home, losing
19:36
record. Lastly popped open Juice Reel
19:39
noticed a 13% sharp mush edge on the Yankees.
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So shop around here, guys. I got Yankees -150 at the score.
19:49
But definitely try to get the best price because a lot of the
19:51
market is closer to -155 -, 160. So Diamondbacks, Pirates,
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Yankees, let's see if we can get 2 out of 3.
20:00
Eek out a winning day. So that about does it for
20:03
episode 519 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast,
20:07
powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
20:09
where we wrap things up. And now we start first by saying
20:12
thank you. Thank you for listening, thank
20:14
you for tuning in, thank you for taking the time out of your day,
20:17
out of your busy lives. And we get a lot going on you
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guys, TuneIn, we sweat our games together.
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We cash them tickets together. To me, that's what it's all
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about. So thank you for supporting the
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pod. And if you'd like to help me
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grow this podcast and you haven't done it yet, please give
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this pod a five star review on Spotify or iTunes.
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Click the rate and review. Leave a comment.
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Click the follow button. Recommend the pod to a friend.
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Retweet the pod when I put it out on Twitter.
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Any or all of those things would be very much appreciated.
20:45
Next, if you enjoy the style of sports betting, data-driven,
20:48
sharp contrarian betting, focusing on what the numbers are
20:51
telling us, the line movement, the splits, the system matches,
20:54
taking a contrarian approach. If this style of betting has
20:57
appealed to you and you want to learn more about data-driven
21:00
betting, or maybe you have someone in your life who could
21:02
use some data-driven tips, or maybe you got to get a Father's
21:05
Day gift for grandpa or your uncle or your son or whoever.
21:07
You know what you should do? You should go to Amazon.com and
21:11
type in the everything Guide to Sports Betting or the NFL Sharp
21:15
Betting Playbook. Those are the two books that
21:17
I've written. Very proud of both, but grab one
21:20
or the other, bring them the sports book.
21:22
I'll sign them for you. I'll buy you a beer or ginger
21:24
ale and we'll sweat some games together.
21:26
Next. Have you downloaded Rhythm and
21:28
Juice Real yet? My two favorite sports betting
21:30
apps. They help me win.
21:31
They're going to help you win Rhythm.
21:33
Fantastic for their AI backed models and predictions for game
21:36
bets and player props. Again, I love Rhythm as a cherry
21:38
on top, like I like the movement with toward the Diamondbacks
21:42
yesterday popped open rhythm 3 green stars lit up on the D
21:45
back. So I love seeing that.
21:47
But then also juice reel. So many great features of juice
21:50
reel. You can sync up your sports
21:51
books, get a running report card of your action, get the robo
21:54
Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush indicators, the
21:56
arbitrage plays the shop for the best sign futures.
21:59
But also if you want to support the pod, you can always get the
22:03
all systems go official best bet picks.
22:05
You can get them just by listening to the pod, writing
22:07
them down or remembering them, but you can get them earlier in
22:10
the day and support the pod. And I consider a tip jar by
22:14
getting the best bets directly from Juice Rail.
22:17
So as soon as I bet them, they go right to the app, you go to
22:20
the profile page, boom, they're right there.
22:22
You can get notifications of the plays as well.
22:24
But you can do a 7 day free trial and if you like it, it is
22:28
$9.99 a week. That's $1.42 a day for the pics.
22:33
2499 twenty, $4.99 for a month, that's $0.83 a day or $199.99
22:43
for the year. So 200 bucks for the year.
22:45
That is $0.55 a day. But if you'd like to get a week
22:49
a month or be a hero and be get a year, I'd very much appreciate
22:53
it. You're supporting the pod.
22:54
You're supporting my daughter's childcare fund.
22:57
Think of it that way as well. I would download Rhythm,
23:00
download Juice Real, give them a five star review in the App
23:02
Store. Lastly, do you have a live odds
23:05
page? Well, if you don't have one, you
23:06
need one. It's such a critical tool you're
23:09
going to use it every day. If you're betting on sports, you
23:11
love the live odds page because it is really the the window into
23:14
the betting market, giving you all the games, the start times,
23:17
the live scoring, the live in game wagering odds.
23:20
You can also get shopping for the best line, finding the book
23:23
offering you the best price. Again, you want to bet Yankees
23:26
find that book that's offering -150 when everyone else is at
23:29
-160 you can do it all with odds logic.
23:33
So if you ever want to give it a shot, use this special link Odds
23:37
logic.com/josh 123. That's going to give you a 7 day
23:42
free trial and 50% off your first month of service.
23:46
So that about does it for episode 519 of the ASG Pod.
23:51
As always guys, two final thoughts.
23:52
One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
23:56
River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
23:58
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut, at the Encore in
24:01
Boston, Plain Ridge Park, Casino, MGM Springfield, or the
24:05
Nash. In my neck of the woods on the
24:06
border of Massachusetts and New Hampshire.
24:09
Or out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
24:11
Where Billy Walter sends his number runners.
24:13
Where the lowest juice possible is found at the South Point.
24:16
Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
24:19
swimming pool when he cashed a big ticket at Circa.
24:21
Whatever it may be, we're going to see each other from across
24:24
the sports book floor. We're going to knock on the
24:27
janitor's closet, grab a broom, do a little fret of stair dance,
24:30
a little sweep into the floors because it was a great sweep
24:33
last night. Guys, show me a Diamondbacks
24:35
ticket, a Brewers ticket, a Reds ticket.
24:38
First one's on me, next one's on you will post about the book
24:41
Sweatshop Contrarian plays all night long.
24:44
So as always, guys coming off a three and O or an O and 3A2 and
24:47
one or a one and two. A great day, a terrible day, a
24:50
winning week, a losing week. Whether we're hot or cold, up or
24:53
down, we're always grinding. We're never getting too high
24:56
when things are going well. We're never getting too low when
24:58
things are are not going our way.
25:00
We just got to stick to the model, stick to the blueprint
25:02
discipline with our bankroll management, avoiding the games
25:05
with red flags, but getting down on the games that check off our
25:08
boxes against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat
25:12
bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
25:15
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
25:18
So hope everyone enjoys their Wednesday.
25:21
We'll be right back at it tomorrow for a Thirsty Thursday
25:23
edition. That'll be episode 520 of the
25:26
All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
25:30
Good luck everybody, and let's get some winners on the diamond.