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Will 2026 bring affordable home back to the housing market? · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 1: a donation today. This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck
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Speaker 1: Zada and Mike Armstrong.
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Speaker 2: Chuck Mike Tucker with your kick and things off, and
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Speaker 2: we've got stocks trading down modestly today. We open the
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Speaker 2: day with major agencies up about a half percent, but
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Speaker 2: they could not hold those gains. And as we sit
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Speaker 2: here right now, the Dow is off fifty eight points,
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Speaker 2: the SMP is off four the NASDAG is off forty eight.
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Speaker 2: So again a modest moved down, continuing some weakness that
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Speaker 2: showed up at the back end of last week. Uh,
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Speaker 2: but overall, no major move in equity markets. Today. Ten
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Speaker 2: year Treasury is down three point three basis points to
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Speaker 2: four point one sixty three percent. Dollar Index is down
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Speaker 2: point two percent to ninety seven point eight three five.
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Speaker 2: Gold up twenty seven thirty an ounce to forty three
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Speaker 2: to fifty five and sixty cents, and crude oil down
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Speaker 2: sixty five cents a barrel to fifty six seven nine
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Speaker 2: and the trip a national average for gas prices continuing
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Speaker 2: to slide, which is music.
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Speaker 3: To my ears.
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Speaker 2: You know, I don't work in the oil industry, but
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Speaker 2: if you do, you might be, you know, not loving that.
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Speaker 2: But for the rest of us who don't, gas prices
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Speaker 2: down another four tenths of ascent overnight to two ninety
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Speaker 2: and six tenths of a cent. And so that is
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Speaker 2: what is moving in markets today. This is a busy
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Speaker 2: week for the second to last week of December. You've
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Speaker 2: got again payrolls, so you've got jobs report tomorrow, You've
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Speaker 2: got retail sales tomorrow. Wednesday is pretty quiet, but then
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Speaker 2: Thursday you've got CPI and jobbles claims, and then Friday
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Speaker 2: you've got existing home sales. So pretty jammed week with
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Speaker 2: domestic data out there. And so again, this could be
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Speaker 2: a little bit of a different week just because normally
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Speaker 2: job support has already been released two weeks ago. You know,
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Speaker 2: CPI usually is the week after this point, so that
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Speaker 2: would have been last week, and normally you get to
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Speaker 2: December fifteenth and it's like okay, like kick your feet up,
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Speaker 2: be ready for the holidays, Like not much happens. There
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Speaker 2: could be a little different tenor to how this week
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Speaker 2: plays out than what we normally get just because the
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Speaker 2: calendar is different.
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Speaker 3: It's all I got. Yeah.
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Speaker 4: Again, what we've been talking about all the last couple
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Speaker 4: of months has been the shifting narrative when it comes
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Speaker 4: to artificial intelligence, and I think It's hard to say
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Speaker 4: that anything has mattered to markets this year other than
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Speaker 4: artificial intelligence. Yes, there was trade concerns earlier this year
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Speaker 4: that cuts It did matter at the time, but when
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Speaker 4: you you know, we're midway through December. Now, when you
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Speaker 4: take a look back at what drove markets this year
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Speaker 4: now that we're here, there are a lot of different
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Speaker 4: stories in between, but now that we're here, it was
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Speaker 4: artificial intelligence and the spending that came along with it.
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Speaker 2: So that is what we've got going on in markets overall.
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Speaker 2: Let's talk about this piece from Yahoo Finance. Housing affordability
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Speaker 2: may improve next year, but don't expect a market crash.
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Speaker 2: I tend to agree with that. This is not one
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Speaker 2: of those pieces that I look at and say, oh, like,
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Speaker 2: how did this end up, like you know, getting written,
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Speaker 2: No like this. This is something that I think very
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Speaker 2: much matches where I am right now from a housing perspective. Now, remember,
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Speaker 2: anyone who's listening, and you can hear us all over
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Speaker 2: the country. All real estate is very very local. So
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Speaker 2: if you're listening to us right now in you know,
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Speaker 2: southwest Florida, you're probably like man state marketing like that.
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Speaker 2: The real estate market is crashing here, like prices of
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Speaker 2: fall in fifteen to twenty percent. If you are listening
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Speaker 2: to us in Connecticut, where there are eight houses available
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Speaker 2: across the entire state, you're sitting there and you're going, yeah,
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Speaker 2: I could sell my house for anything I want right now.
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Speaker 2: If you are listening in Nashville, Tennessee, you're probably like, hey, this.
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Speaker 2: You know, market's fine, but you know it's it's not great,
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Speaker 2: it's not horrible, it's just it is what it is.
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Speaker 2: But where we are heading next year is a continued
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Speaker 2: inventory build that is going to have us back to
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Speaker 2: twenty nineteen twenty eighteen levels of inventory nationwide, but still
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Speaker 2: some big skews as far as what things look like regionally.
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Speaker 2: The Northeast and Midwest still will not be back to
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Speaker 2: pre pandemic levels of inventory, where much of the South
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Speaker 2: and through the West Coast will be in excess of that.
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Speaker 2: And so what this means is it's unlikely that you
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Speaker 2: end up with home prices, you know, in free fall nationwide,
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Speaker 2: just because again I know that's what happened in two
5:44
Speaker 2: thousand and eight for very specific reasons. Those reasons are
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Speaker 2: not present now, and so I think that while there's
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Speaker 2: the potential for some modest downside in nationwide pricing, you know,
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Speaker 2: maybe like one to four percent nationwide price declines. Beyond that,
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Speaker 2: I don't think it's in the cards unless something hugely
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Speaker 2: unexpected hits.
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Speaker 4: It would have to be pretty massive too, because there
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Speaker 4: is not likely to be the forced selling that you
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Speaker 4: get when you get an over leveraged real estate.
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Speaker 2: That there has not been too much money pouring into
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Speaker 2: real estate, you know. It's the problems that we have
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Speaker 2: in the economy right now. Are not I borrowed too
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Speaker 2: much to buy a house and now we can't pay
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Speaker 2: it back in large numbers.
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Speaker 4: When some people, when they get really nervous about the
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Speaker 4: economy and markets, they might dump their stock portfolio, that's
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Speaker 4: not what happens with real estate. No, when it comes
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Speaker 4: to your real estate, you do not dump it until
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Speaker 4: the bank takes it right like you know that that's
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Speaker 4: the reality with all of this, And so we do
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Speaker 4: talk a lot about or it's been a while, but
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Speaker 4: we haven't talked about the five d's of housing in
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Speaker 4: quite some time.
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Speaker 3: Diapers, diamonds, and death. But there's not.
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Speaker 4: Going to be There's almost no scenario, even with higher
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Speaker 4: unemployment that I see where we're looking at a full
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Speaker 4: on real estate housing market crash nationwide nationally right, like
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Speaker 4: you know, regional pockets are always different. But we just
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Speaker 4: I can't see a path even like in an extreme
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Speaker 4: scenario where we hit like seven percent unemployment. Can I
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Speaker 4: see a path where the real estate market looks like
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Speaker 4: it did in twenty eleven?
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Speaker 2: My answers no, So I think that's kind of where
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Speaker 2: where we end up and sore. Where we need to
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Speaker 2: get to and where this will very likely end up
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Speaker 2: working out is probably in twenty seven, twenty eight, or
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Speaker 2: maybe early in twenty nine, you'll probably have affordability back
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Speaker 2: to where it was pre pandemic. Not prices, but affordability.
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Speaker 3: What I mean by that is ages to payment.
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Speaker 2: Yes, you're going to have maybe prices fall nationwide, you know,
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Speaker 2: one to three percent for the next couple of years,
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Speaker 2: while wages move up you know, two to four percent
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Speaker 2: a year for the next couple of years, and that
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Speaker 2: closes that ten to fifteen percent affordability gap that is
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Speaker 2: out there by most metrics. So the problem with this
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Speaker 2: in the interim is if home prices are coming down,
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Speaker 2: builders are not going to be able to build as much,
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Speaker 2: which means potentially layoffs in the construction industry, which means
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Speaker 2: historically a weaker US economy. And again, like the seeds
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Speaker 2: for this have have been sown over, you know, the
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Speaker 2: last five six years. This is not something we just
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Speaker 2: like woke up into and we're like, oh gee, this
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Speaker 2: is a problem. It's going to take a few years
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Speaker 2: to work through this, since it took half a decade
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Speaker 2: to get to this point. And so I think the
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Speaker 2: couple of questions that that I have on it are, Okay,
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Speaker 2: how does the US economy find an engine if housing
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Speaker 2: construction is going to be stagnant for the next couple
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Speaker 2: of years, and with that furthering our bet on the
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Speaker 2: AI development, right, it's kind of like, okay, like how
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Speaker 2: much you know AI can.
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Speaker 3: You do with a lot of weight on the shoulders?
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Speaker 2: Because then the other piece is, look, there's a reason
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Speaker 2: why people say that housing leads the economy. It's because well,
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Speaker 2: historically housing leads the economy, and so if it's not,
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Speaker 2: what can pick up that mantle AI? Like, I'm not
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Speaker 2: saying it's going to fall apart, but I don't know
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Speaker 2: what fuel there is for like another inflection up. I'm
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Speaker 2: not saying it has to fall apart. But I just like,
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Speaker 2: I don't know what can accelerate the growth any faster
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Speaker 2: at this point domestically unless it decides that it wants
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Speaker 2: to do something to us.
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Speaker 1: Like, I don't know.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, I hesitate to see it as well, But I
9:47
Speaker 4: guess that's the very nature of sure new innovations and
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Speaker 4: technology is if it's going to truly surprise and impress,
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Speaker 4: and it's going to have to surprise and impress and require
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Speaker 4: even more data center and you tility construction.
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Speaker 3: I don't know what to say otherwise.
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Speaker 2: So like you kind of just look out at the
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Speaker 2: landscape and you go, Okay, it's gonna just be a
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Speaker 2: little bit challenging to navigate that because we've got to
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Speaker 2: let this excess pricing work through the system, and it's
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Speaker 2: probably not going to be the proximate cause of any
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Speaker 2: type of financial meltdown, but it's just gonna be kind
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Speaker 2: of a drag on the economy for a couple of
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Speaker 2: years while we navigate it. Let's take a quick break.
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Speaker 2: When we return, we are going to be joined by
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Speaker 2: Corey Adams from Robert Half talking about job hopping from
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Speaker 2: their twenty twenty six survey.
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Speaker 4: Join us now is Corey Adams from Robert Half talking
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Speaker 4: to us about their twenty twenty six job hopping survey.
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Speaker 3: Core thanks for coming on, appreciate us.
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Speaker 6: Good morning, Mike, thanks for having me as always.
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Speaker 4: Well, we've got a jobs report that's going to be
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Speaker 4: released tomorrow, or technically two jobs reports, because we're getting
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Speaker 4: some of the October data as well, and the trend
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Speaker 4: recently has been towards a continued weakening in the labor market.
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Speaker 4: And that yet some of the fine in your survey
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Speaker 4: I found to be at least optimistic when it comes
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Speaker 4: to some workers' hopes to hop jobs in twenty twenty six.
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Speaker 4: So who did you talk to and what did you find?
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Speaker 3: Sure?
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Speaker 6: Yeah, well said it is an optimistic outlook. So we
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Speaker 6: spoke to a number of employees across the US over
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Speaker 6: the past few months, and what we found is that
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Speaker 6: nearly four and ten employed professionals actually planned to look
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Speaker 6: for a new job in the first half of twenty
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Speaker 6: twenty six, and optimistically speaking, this is up twenty seven
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Speaker 6: percent from July and twenty nine percent from one year ago. Now,
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Speaker 6: the top motivators for driving the job search plans included
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Speaker 6: Number one, a desire for better benefits. Number two was
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Speaker 6: they felt they had limited career advancement opportunities in their
12:43
Speaker 6: current role. Third was competitive pay, and I feel like
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Speaker 6: anytime we talk about a motivator for a job move,
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Speaker 6: pay have to be involved. Then the fourth was burnout,
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Speaker 6: which we know has been somewhat prevalent for a number
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Speaker 6: of years now. And so the workers who are most
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Speaker 6: likely to launch a jobs in twenty twenty six was
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Speaker 6: first tech and healthcare workers for forty six percent of
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Speaker 6: the respondents, and then gen Z and working parents were
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Speaker 6: equal at forty two percent. And then the last key
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Speaker 6: binding which I thought was interesting, was the top job
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Speaker 6: search challenges for unemployed candidates, so they are as follow
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Speaker 6: as number one. They said that there are too many
13:21
Speaker 6: applicants and too much competition for positions that they wanted
13:23
Speaker 6: to apply for. They also said that's difficult to find
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Speaker 6: a job that matches their workplace preference, and for me,
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Speaker 6: that sort of feels like it's probably a conflict in
13:32
Speaker 6: terms of the in office demand coupled with some inflexibility
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Speaker 6: around some scheduling there. And then the third challenge for
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Speaker 6: unemployed workers was that their skills didn't actually match requirements
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Speaker 6: for the jobs posted.
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Speaker 4: A lot's been written about this year, you know, the
13:47
Speaker 4: challenges for gen Z workers in particular looking looking for
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Speaker 4: those jobs, finding it's tough to come by as they
13:54
Speaker 4: as they graduate college and head into a difficult labor market.
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Speaker 4: Was that a large portion of your irrespondence specifically in
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Speaker 4: the unemployed space, and are gen Z workers doing anything
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Speaker 4: differently right now as they search in a challenging entry
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Speaker 4: level job market.
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Speaker 3: And it's interesting.
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Speaker 6: I've had this conversation about gen Z a number of
14:13
Speaker 6: times over the past few months, and I think that
14:15
Speaker 6: population probably made up a healthy majority of the respondents.
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Speaker 6: But that's a unique section of the workforce because if
14:24
Speaker 6: you think about sort of what they've been through over
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Speaker 6: the past couple of years, what they watched their parents
14:29
Speaker 6: going through when they were younger, they've seen a lot.
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Speaker 6: And their drivers are unique because they are incredibly career
14:38
Speaker 6: minded and driven and motivated. So you've got a portion
14:41
Speaker 6: of population that's still trying to figure out what they're
14:44
Speaker 6: going to do and probably still tory identify their either
14:47
Speaker 6: their first job or their first promotion. But then you
14:49
Speaker 6: have others who know everything they can to get their
14:51
Speaker 6: foot in the door of the workplace and kind of
14:54
Speaker 6: establish themselves so they can have a career. From just
14:57
Speaker 6: a long term perspective.
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Speaker 4: I know we're trying to to interpret the data here,
15:01
Speaker 4: which is sometimes tough to do, but what do you
15:03
Speaker 4: think the main reasons are for this uptick? Right? I mean,
15:06
Speaker 4: could it be that you know, workers genuinely are feeling
15:09
Speaker 4: more optimistic about the state of the labor market. Did
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Speaker 4: they just delay plans out of concerns for the labor
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Speaker 4: market throughout twenty twenty five And so these are just hey,
15:18
Speaker 4: we put this stuff on ice for too long. I
15:19
Speaker 4: mean you finally need to act on it or is
15:21
Speaker 4: there some other force at work?
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Speaker 3: Sure?
15:23
Speaker 6: Well, first thing I would tell you was it is
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Speaker 6: that time of year where it feels like sure girls market,
15:29
Speaker 6: end of the year comes around, people start thinking ahead.
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Speaker 6: This is part of the first thing that people are
15:32
Speaker 6: thinking about is what's the next step for their career.
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Speaker 6: But you know, I think in addition to all the
15:36
Speaker 6: top motivators that we identified through our research, I mean,
15:40
Speaker 6: let's just be honest and call it what it was,
15:41
Speaker 6: twenty twenty five was really just a year of staying put.
15:45
Speaker 6: And so you know, many professionals, many of them, if
15:48
Speaker 6: not most of them, actually just prioritize stability over anything else.
15:52
Speaker 6: And so I think the research is just showing us
15:55
Speaker 6: is that candidates and employees are starting to show some
15:58
Speaker 6: signs of renewed confidents in an attempt and desire to
16:02
Speaker 6: start exploring new opportunities for a number of different reasons.
16:05
Speaker 6: And so you know, The other thing that's really important
16:07
Speaker 6: to note is that we know right now and this
16:10
Speaker 6: ties to gen Z and a lot of workers because
16:12
Speaker 6: of what the past few years have been. But employees
16:15
Speaker 6: are increasingly focused right now on career growth and development
16:19
Speaker 6: opportunities because they have not been afforded to them for
16:22
Speaker 6: a better part of twenty twenty four and a lot
16:24
Speaker 6: of twenty twenty five.
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Speaker 4: Corey, If somebody is planning on kicking off a job
16:29
Speaker 4: search in twenty twenty six, what are your top strategies
16:32
Speaker 4: for them? What should they be focusing on today?
16:34
Speaker 6: Sure, I'll give you a few here, and I'll try
16:35
Speaker 6: to be pretty quick with them, because there's a lot.
16:38
Speaker 6: So first off, I would say, use your network former colleagues, families, friends,
16:43
Speaker 6: I mean, the list goes on. This is a group
16:45
Speaker 6: that can actually help get your resume in front of
16:47
Speaker 6: decision makers, and that's ultimately what you're trying to do.
16:50
Speaker 6: And so from there, you want to make sure that
16:52
Speaker 6: you're building connections online as well as in person, which
16:54
Speaker 6: you want to do with as much intention as possible.
16:57
Speaker 6: And then amongst sort of the using your network, you
17:01
Speaker 6: want to make sure that you are continuously nurturing your
17:03
Speaker 6: network to keep your connections warm. And that's so important
17:06
Speaker 6: because there's probably nothing worse in reaching out to someone
17:08
Speaker 6: you haven't spoken within three years and asking for them
17:11
Speaker 6: to put your resume in front of somebody. It's probably
17:13
Speaker 6: not going to go too well. Second strategy is going
17:15
Speaker 6: to be stay visible kind of ties in the first strategy,
17:17
Speaker 6: but you want to share insights on platforms like LinkedIn,
17:22
Speaker 6: whether you like things, whether you comment on industry posts
17:26
Speaker 6: from people within your field, and in essence, you want
17:28
Speaker 6: to interact digitally with others from your industry and have
17:32
Speaker 6: the same career path as you. And so we basically
17:34
Speaker 6: tell folks to think of it as another form of
17:36
Speaker 6: networking and building your personal brand. Next strategy stay market
17:40
Speaker 6: ready and level up your skills. In essence, here you
17:43
Speaker 6: want to master basic technology workplace tools, you want to
17:46
Speaker 6: gain AI fluency, and you want to practice with various
17:48
Speaker 6: systems in softwares. And so it's not aboud idea to
17:51
Speaker 6: even go and earn micro credentials that show that you've
17:54
Speaker 6: mastered a skill and that you're staying current in this
17:57
Speaker 6: fast changing job market. And then this is important to
18:00
Speaker 6: you want to pay attention to the skills that employees
18:02
Speaker 6: actually want in your field. And then once you identify them,
18:04
Speaker 6: do you ever think you can sort of close that
18:06
Speaker 6: skills gap? My last two for you number one, and
18:09
Speaker 6: this goes back to our gen Z friends here, but
18:11
Speaker 6: for new graduates as well as early career professionals, highlight internships,
18:14
Speaker 6: part time jobs, and any sort of projects that actually
18:17
Speaker 6: showcase and identify your passion in a particular error because
18:21
Speaker 6: it's going to go a really long way. And then
18:22
Speaker 6: the last strategy, and this is part of the most
18:24
Speaker 6: important one because it's the most practical for what we're
18:26
Speaker 6: seeing every single day in the job force. But if
18:30
Speaker 6: you are using AI for job search prep, and most
18:33
Speaker 6: people are, please do not overdo it's GENAI can actually
18:37
Speaker 6: help polish resumes. It's especially great for catching spelling and
18:40
Speaker 6: grammatical errors. But it's also important for professionals to edit
18:44
Speaker 6: the output and ensure that the content reflects your unique experience.
18:48
Speaker 6: And so more than ever, hiring managers are getting absolutely
18:51
Speaker 6: flooded and inundated with AI generated resumes, So candidates should
18:55
Speaker 6: prioritize in using their own voice and keeping that human element.
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Speaker 4: Adams from Robert Half talking to us about their job
19:03
Speaker 4: hopping survey for twenty twenty six. Corey, really appreciate the
19:05
Speaker 4: time and we'll chat with you in the new year.
19:07
Speaker 6: My pleasure happy all it is.
19:10
Speaker 4: Taking a look around here at markets. We've got still
19:14
Speaker 4: things lagging a bit, especially compared to where we were
19:17
Speaker 4: in pre market trading, but Dow, SMP and NASDAC now
19:21
Speaker 4: all slightly positive. We'll have a full market recap and more.
19:25
Speaker 4: Next to the Financial Exchange.
19:39
Speaker 1: Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio every day,
19:44
Speaker 1: It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
19:49
Speaker 7: We're proud to announce that circle K is now the
19:51
Speaker 7: official convenience store of the DAV Department of Massachusetts. At
19:55
Speaker 7: circle K, supporting those who bravely served our country isn't
19:58
Speaker 7: just a commitment, heartfelt mission. Circle K is honored to
20:02
Speaker 7: stand with the dav Department of Massachusetts to ensure that
20:05
Speaker 7: veterans receive the care and recognition they deserve. If you'd
20:08
Speaker 7: like to do your part, please visit DAVMA dot org.
20:12
Speaker 7: Thank you for standing with circle K and the DAV
20:14
Speaker 7: Department of Massachusetts, and thank you veterans for all you've done.
20:20
Speaker 1: Time now for Wall Street watch a complete look at
20:23
Speaker 1: what's moving markets so far today right here on the
20:26
Speaker 1: Financial Exchange Radio network.
20:28
Speaker 5: Markets are now mixed and mostly quiet after somewhat shoppy
20:32
Speaker 5: morning as trader is a way to flurry of economic
20:35
Speaker 5: data points due up this week, including the November jobs
20:38
Speaker 5: report in October retail sales due out tomorrow morning, as
20:42
Speaker 5: well as the November Consumer Price Index on Thursday morning.
20:47
Speaker 5: Right now, the Dow is off only forty points, SMP
20:51
Speaker 5: five hundred, dipping by two points, NASDAC down about a
20:55
Speaker 5: quarter of a percent, or fifty four points. Rustly two
20:58
Speaker 5: thousand is off a third of percent. Ten Your Treasure
21:00
Speaker 5: reeled down two basis points at four point one seven
21:05
Speaker 5: four percent, and crude oil down one point four percent,
21:09
Speaker 5: trading a fifty six dollars and sixty five cents a barrel.
21:13
Speaker 5: Rumba maker I Robot declared bankruptcy over the weekend, sending
21:17
Speaker 5: shares in the company plunging seventy three percent. I Robot
21:21
Speaker 5: said its customer service and app functionality will continue normally
21:26
Speaker 5: during the restructuring. If you recall, a proposed sale to
21:30
Speaker 5: Amazon fell through back in twenty twenty four due to
21:33
Speaker 5: regulatory concerns. Meanwhile, space linked stocks including rocket Lab down
21:39
Speaker 5: by six percent, an Echo star down or excuse me down.
21:43
Speaker 5: Actually it's flat now at the moment, following reports that
21:46
Speaker 5: SpaceX intends to go public in twenty twenty six after
21:50
Speaker 5: notching an eight hundred billion dollar valuation in its latest
21:54
Speaker 5: funding round. Elsewhere, US listed shares of Chinese e commerce
21:59
Speaker 5: companies Out Bob and Bay Do It down about three
22:02
Speaker 5: percent after data showed the Chinese economy is weakening, and
22:06
Speaker 5: Goldman Sachs upgraded both Las Vegas Sands and Marriott International,
22:10
Speaker 5: sending shares up by about two percent into both of
22:14
Speaker 5: those stalks. I'm Tucker Silvan, that is Wall Street Watch,
22:17
Speaker 5: and we gotta do trivia. Haven't done that yet, so
22:19
Speaker 5: let's get to it. And we are ten days away
22:22
Speaker 5: from Christmas, in case you didn't realize that, So let's
22:25
Speaker 5: have a little run of Christmas movie trivia. In the
22:29
Speaker 5: nineteen nineteen nineties Home Alone, Kevin McAllister is accidentally left
22:34
Speaker 5: at home when his family leaves for a trip overseas.
22:38
Speaker 5: Trivia question today, where did the mcallis family travel to
22:43
Speaker 5: for Christmas? Once again, where did the McAllister family travel too?
22:49
Speaker 5: For Christmas? Be the seventh person today to texts us
22:52
Speaker 5: at six one seven three six two thirteen eighty five
22:56
Speaker 5: with the correct answer along with the keyword trivia, and
22:59
Speaker 5: you win a Finance Exchange Show T shirt. Once again,
23:02
Speaker 5: the seventh correct response to text us to the number
23:05
Speaker 5: six one seven three six two thirteen eighty five with
23:08
Speaker 5: the correct answer along with the keyword trivia, we'll win
23:11
Speaker 5: that T shirt. See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange
23:15
Speaker 5: Show dot com.
23:16
Speaker 2: There's still time to maximize the zero percent capital gains
23:20
Speaker 2: bracket for twenty twenty five. Here's what to know. That
23:23
Speaker 2: is the headline from CNBC, and basically, here's the deal.
23:28
Speaker 2: If you are a single filer with taxable income under
23:32
Speaker 2: forty eight thousand, three hundred and fifty dollars this year,
23:36
Speaker 2: or a married couple with taxable income under ninety six
23:40
Speaker 2: seven hundred dollars this year, any capital gains that are
23:44
Speaker 2: recognized as a portion of that, any net capital gains
23:47
Speaker 2: you know, in excess of any losses realized, are taxed
23:51
Speaker 2: at zero percent rate.
23:52
Speaker 4: There are, in my mind three groups of people who
23:55
Speaker 4: I think are going to have a tough time understanding
23:59
Speaker 4: how much lower their taxes are going to be when
24:01
Speaker 4: they go to file in March One group is sixty
24:05
Speaker 4: five year old plus couples that make less than one
24:08
Speaker 4: hundred and fifty grand a year.
24:10
Speaker 3: Yep.
24:11
Speaker 2: Two is tipped workers. Even though the limitations on the
24:15
Speaker 2: tip deduction are not.
24:17
Speaker 4: They're not huge, but it's still a you know, a
24:20
Speaker 4: decent sized chalk, especially if you're in that lower income
24:22
Speaker 4: tax bracket. Three is workers with a lot of overtime
24:25
Speaker 4: hours that may be eligible for that deduction. All of
24:28
Speaker 4: them fall into that same income category. But I'm running
24:31
Speaker 4: across it here and there where you know, folks who,
24:35
Speaker 4: for instance, have some retirement accounts that they're not usually
24:38
Speaker 4: living off of yet and mostly live off of their
24:40
Speaker 4: Social Security might find themselves for the first time ever
24:45
Speaker 4: paying literally zero taxes. And that sounds great until you
24:49
Speaker 4: realize that, like, okay, I could go sell something that
24:52
Speaker 4: I have at a gain or take money out of
24:55
Speaker 4: my IRA that I would have otherwise had to pay
24:57
Speaker 4: taxes on for literally zero time axes. There are those
25:02
Speaker 4: opportunities that are out there right now. So they talk
25:05
Speaker 4: about capital gains here, I'm focusing too on roth conversions
25:08
Speaker 4: for some of these sure, right, Like, hey, I am
25:11
Speaker 4: not really living off of a lot of this money.
25:13
Speaker 4: I wasn't really planning on doing roth conversions because it
25:16
Speaker 4: wasn't going to benefit me. Now it might because of
25:18
Speaker 4: this additional deduction for sixty five year olds, and so
25:22
Speaker 4: there is a new group of people that I think
25:26
Speaker 4: it makes sense for them to consider this stuff that
25:28
Speaker 4: wouldn't have made a whole lot of sense in previous years.
25:31
Speaker 4: And it's just tough to identify if you fall into
25:34
Speaker 4: that back. But that's why I try and bucket it is.
25:36
Speaker 4: If you're in one of those categories, right, work a
25:38
Speaker 4: lot of overtime work, a lot for tips are sixty
25:42
Speaker 4: five year older, and of you know, even above moderate income,
25:46
Speaker 4: right you can have one hundred and fifty grand an
25:48
Speaker 4: income here and still get the big deduction. There could
25:51
Speaker 4: be strategies for you to pay attention to when it
25:55
Speaker 4: comes to your plan. There's fifteen days, sixteen days left
25:58
Speaker 4: in the year to execute on some of these. If
26:00
Speaker 4: you have questions about how they work, call us over
26:02
Speaker 4: at Armstrong Advisory Group and ask your questions. No, we're
26:05
Speaker 4: not CPAs, we don't provide tax advice. But these are
26:09
Speaker 4: really the intersection of financial planning and long term tax planning,
26:15
Speaker 4: and it is really important for your financial success. Give
26:18
Speaker 4: the folks at Armstrong Advisory Group a call if you
26:21
Speaker 4: fall into these categories.
26:22
Speaker 3: And want a little bit more information. The numbers eight
26:24
Speaker 3: hundred three nine three for zero zero one.
26:27
Speaker 4: You can check us out book your time for us
26:29
Speaker 4: to call you back at Armstrong Advisory dot com. But
26:31
Speaker 4: that number once again, eight hundred three nine three for
26:35
Speaker 4: zero zero one.
26:36
Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
26:38
Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
26:41
Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult
26:44
Speaker 1: your own financial, tax, and estate planning advisors before making
26:47
Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
26:50
Speaker 1: advisory services.
26:52
Speaker 2: We talk a lot about artificial intelligence and the jobs
26:55
Speaker 2: that it may disrupt out of existence. Piece from the
27:00
Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal today for new jobs that may be
27:04
Speaker 2: in our AI future. That sounds kind of exciting. Number One,
27:09
Speaker 2: we're gonna have to come up with better names for
27:11
Speaker 2: these because the names they're not good. The explainer, Okay,
27:18
Speaker 2: someone explained to me what the explainer does. So what
27:20
Speaker 2: it's talking about here is it's talking about someone who
27:26
Speaker 2: can explain.
27:30
Speaker 3: It's really tough to describe this role without using the
27:32
Speaker 3: word in the description.
27:34
Speaker 2: It's basically what it's talking about is someone who understands
27:37
Speaker 2: how artificial intelligence systems work so they can explain it
27:40
Speaker 2: to other people at the company or outside of the
27:43
Speaker 2: company who need to know why a certain decision was
27:46
Speaker 2: made by the artificial intelligence system.
27:49
Speaker 4: So, for example, you are a healthcare company and your
27:54
Speaker 4: AI system flags a bunch of records for looking into.
28:00
Speaker 4: You need somebody that can understand and explain to the
28:03
Speaker 4: board why did this AI system flag these accounts? Yes,
28:07
Speaker 4: I'm sorry. Before we keep going through all these can
28:09
Speaker 4: I share my recent my very recent AI story. Sure,
28:13
Speaker 4: I have some plumbing work that needs to be done
28:15
Speaker 4: in my house and I'd called a couple of places
28:16
Speaker 4: and I couldn't get it figured out. Called a third
28:20
Speaker 4: place that had previously done some plumbing work on my
28:23
Speaker 4: company on my home. Picked up, human being picked up,
28:28
Speaker 4: talked to them for about thirty seconds. It was not
28:30
Speaker 4: until I described the problem that I was having that
28:33
Speaker 4: I realized I was talking to an artificial intelligence About
28:36
Speaker 4: thirty seconds into the call, they introduced themselves. There was
28:39
Speaker 4: talking going on in the background. There was the sound
28:42
Speaker 4: as though this was being done from the office of
28:46
Speaker 4: this plumbing company that I kind of thought was pretty small,
28:49
Speaker 4: described the problem, It repeated the problem back to me
28:52
Speaker 4: and categorized in a slightly different way, told me the availability,
28:56
Speaker 4: booked my appointment for today, confirmed the time slot, texted
29:00
Speaker 4: me the confirmation. But again, this was a minute long call,
29:04
Speaker 4: and I did not detect that I was on the
29:05
Speaker 4: phone with an artificial intelligence until thirty seconds in.
29:08
Speaker 3: There was no disclosure. It was just you know, I.
29:10
Speaker 4: Don't remember what they describe itself, but it described itself
29:13
Speaker 4: as like Kenny or something like that from the plumbing company.
29:15
Speaker 2: How'd you feel after that?
29:18
Speaker 3: Impressed and betrayed? Right, It's like it's like that's pretty feelings.
29:24
Speaker 2: But man, like, what did I just do?
29:27
Speaker 3: Yeah?
29:27
Speaker 4: I mean here's what I landed with. I've called three
29:30
Speaker 4: plumbing firms. This is the only one that booked me
29:32
Speaker 4: an appointment and took my call and called me back.
29:37
Speaker 3: So good use of AI.
29:39
Speaker 4: But maybe, you know, I think my caveat would be
29:43
Speaker 4: don't tell me your name is Ryan or whatever you
29:45
Speaker 4: said your name was, and at some point you know, like, hey,
29:49
Speaker 4: my name is Ryan, I'm an automated tool that helps
29:51
Speaker 4: book appointments. I think that would make me feel less
29:53
Speaker 4: betrayed and more impressed.
29:55
Speaker 2: Next job, the chooser, AH a chooser. I've always wanted
29:59
Speaker 2: to be chooser. I believe the choice is important in life.
30:03
Speaker 2: But an AI chooser will help the company decide which
30:07
Speaker 2: AI platform is best for the specific role.
30:11
Speaker 4: I've heard this described in certain ways in our own industry,
30:14
Speaker 4: where like, hey, there are certain AI tools that are
30:17
Speaker 4: really good and well trained on being creative. Those ones
30:20
Speaker 4: sometimes suck at math. You don't want one that frequently
30:25
Speaker 4: invents things and is un you know, unrealistic doing math equations,
30:30
Speaker 4: And you don't want the one that's really good at
30:32
Speaker 4: answering what's two plus two writing a movie script? Auditors
30:36
Speaker 4: and cleaners, so people that check the output of the
30:39
Speaker 4: AI to make sure that it's still working the way
30:41
Speaker 4: it's supposed to. And the final one trainers basically trying
30:45
Speaker 4: to figure out how to train basically how to use AI,
30:51
Speaker 4: to train workers on how to use AI. So here's
30:55
Speaker 4: here's the thing that I get to on all this,
30:57
Speaker 4: This is not actually four different jobs. And what I
31:01
Speaker 4: mean by these AI experts, there's one job, and quite honestly,
31:06
Speaker 4: most of us, and I want to say most of
31:09
Speaker 4: us look here's the deal.
31:11
Speaker 2: There are some people who are skilled with technology. There
31:13
Speaker 2: are others who don't even today, Like there are some
31:16
Speaker 2: people who like still think that, like searching for something
31:20
Speaker 2: on Google is this mind blowing thing that they can't do.
31:23
Speaker 2: And here is kind of where I land on this.
31:27
Speaker 2: A lot of this stuff, as we get more experience
31:29
Speaker 2: with it, is going to simply become second nature, the
31:34
Speaker 2: same way a lot of technology is today. This idea
31:36
Speaker 2: of like a chooser, who's going to, you know, pick
31:39
Speaker 2: the right AI for specific use. Mike, if you are
31:43
Speaker 2: trying to get information on a movie, you don't just
31:46
Speaker 2: type it into Google. You go to IMDb and search
31:49
Speaker 2: for it there because you already know. If you're trying
31:52
Speaker 2: to get a quick and dirty summary of the Thirty
31:56
Speaker 2: Years War, you're gonna click on the Wikipedia page for
32:00
Speaker 2: it because you know that's going to give you the basics.
32:02
Speaker 2: Your mind is trained to say, this is where I
32:05
Speaker 2: need to go for this. And it's not because you're
32:07
Speaker 2: employed as an Internet chooser. It's just that years of
32:11
Speaker 2: experience on the Internet have gotten you to this point. Likewise,
32:15
Speaker 2: with AI, as we all get more experience with it,
32:19
Speaker 2: we will start to understand you know kind of where
32:22
Speaker 2: to go as well. But I think it's important to
32:25
Speaker 2: differentiate what's like a reliable long term job, which is, yeah,
32:30
Speaker 2: like someone's got to manage the program and audit it
32:32
Speaker 2: to make sure it's not being corrupted by inputs. But
32:36
Speaker 2: do I need to hire someone and pay them sixty
32:39
Speaker 2: thousand dollars a year so I can ask them which
32:41
Speaker 2: AI program I use for what?
32:43
Speaker 1: Now?
32:43
Speaker 4: The one that I see having permanence here is the
32:46
Speaker 4: auditor role, where yees, somebody's gonna have to be both
32:49
Speaker 4: well versed in government government regulations as well as how
32:55
Speaker 4: AI systems work, and be able to communicate those two
32:59
Speaker 4: things between the parties. And so that's one where I see,
33:03
Speaker 4: given how many industries, like financial services, like healthcare, like
33:06
Speaker 4: government contracts want to use AI, there's going to be
33:08
Speaker 4: a very valuable role there in somebody who can ensure
33:11
Speaker 4: that these systems actually comply with the law for the
33:14
Speaker 4: future Laws's.
33:14
Speaker 2: Take a quick break when we come back, Stack Roulette.
33:18
Speaker 1: The Financial Exchange streams live on YouTube. Subscribe to our
33:21
Speaker 1: page and stay up to date on breaking business news.
33:24
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33:29
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33:31
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33:35
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33:38
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33:46
Speaker 1: This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
33:50
Speaker 5: This segment of the Financial Exchange is brought to you
33:52
Speaker 5: by the US Virgin Islands Department of Tourism. There's still
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Speaker 5: Playing your winter escape at visit USVII dot com. That's
34:26
Speaker 5: visit USVII dot com. Trivia question today was where did
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Speaker 5: the McAllister family travel to for Christmas? In home alone?
34:35
Speaker 5: That would be Paris. Robert in Newport, New Hampshire is
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Speaker 5: a winner today taking home a Financial Exchange Show t
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Speaker 5: shirt and we play trivia every day here in the
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Speaker 5: Financial Exchange See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange Show
34:48
Speaker 5: dot com.
34:48
Speaker 3: Mike, what do you have for me for stack Roulette?
34:52
Speaker 4: Scam of the week near times covering a retired lawyer
34:55
Speaker 4: who lost eighty five thousand dollars from scammers in a
34:59
Speaker 4: very common scam. Different slight flavor this time, and unfortunately.
35:08
Speaker 3: It kind of.
35:09
Speaker 4: Hits at some of the talking points that we have
35:12
Speaker 4: had on these types of scams before. But long story short,
35:17
Speaker 4: eighty something year old having trouble with his new computer
35:21
Speaker 4: sorry his new iPad, tried to find the number for
35:26
Speaker 4: tech support by Googling it, which you know, again is
35:30
Speaker 4: a usually pretty reliable way to do it, but except
35:32
Speaker 4: the Google kind of sucks now well, and he just
35:36
Speaker 4: went with the first number that popped up, rather than
35:39
Speaker 4: clicking through a link and seeing, hey, am I actually
35:41
Speaker 4: being directed to the right website and finding the right
35:44
Speaker 4: contact US number.
35:46
Speaker 2: Long story, isn't that a fraudulent website should be in
35:49
Speaker 2: the top three on a search?
35:51
Speaker 3: Though?
35:51
Speaker 4: Agreed, Google screwed this up because I'm guessing he saw
35:55
Speaker 4: an eight hundred number it was the first result in
35:57
Speaker 4: Google and dialed that number immediately.
36:00
Speaker 3: And what did he get?
36:01
Speaker 4: A scammer who took over his devices was able to
36:05
Speaker 4: then get into his password manager because probably it wasn't
36:10
Speaker 4: password protected.
36:11
Speaker 3: If you haven't, it sounds like you just had a
36:12
Speaker 3: list of passwords.
36:13
Speaker 4: Say just saved of passwords, so you know, tip for
36:17
Speaker 4: those out there, if you have a list of passwords
36:20
Speaker 4: or a password uh saver without password protection or two
36:24
Speaker 4: step verification, then that's a no no long story short,
36:28
Speaker 4: eighty five thousand dollars gets wired from his bank account
36:31
Speaker 4: hours later, tries to recoup.
36:33
Speaker 3: It from City Bank.
36:35
Speaker 4: Citybank basically well allegations that they might not have done
36:38
Speaker 4: enough here according to the individual, but nonetheless unable to
36:44
Speaker 4: recover the funds.
36:45
Speaker 3: And I think some of us get a false.
36:48
Speaker 4: Sense of security from the banks that they are going
36:50
Speaker 4: to protect us in some way. And the answer is
36:54
Speaker 4: that the bank is going to protect themselves, and so
36:58
Speaker 4: you are responsible for protect this stuff.
37:01
Speaker 3: If if you.
37:02
Speaker 4: Are not one hundred percent comfortable operating on a computer
37:06
Speaker 4: and being sure that you know what you're doing, I
37:10
Speaker 4: don't know what advice to give other than you shouldn't
37:12
Speaker 4: be doing it. And it's I'm not blaming the eighty
37:16
Speaker 4: five year old who got screwed out of all this.
37:19
Speaker 4: I think there's plenty of blame for Google as well
37:21
Speaker 4: as Citibank, who apparently allowed the wire to go through.
37:26
Speaker 4: But you have to protect yourself.
37:28
Speaker 3: First.
37:30
Speaker 2: Interesting question, just that I want to pose. We often
37:32
Speaker 2: talk about, hey, like have an emergency fund set aside,
37:35
Speaker 2: and you want that in something like very safe like
37:37
Speaker 2: a bank account. But obviously having large amounts of money
37:41
Speaker 2: in a bank account makes you susceptible of this in
37:43
Speaker 2: a way that keeping very little in a bank account
37:45
Speaker 2: does not.
37:46
Speaker 3: Yeah, what does.
37:48
Speaker 2: One like, I'm just trying to think through this and
37:52
Speaker 2: like how to navigate that, because like the last thing
37:55
Speaker 2: that you want to do is just like keep the
37:56
Speaker 2: cash at home. It's not like if this is in
38:00
Speaker 2: an investment account, it's inherently safer because you can send
38:03
Speaker 2: wires from investment accounts too, And so I don't really
38:07
Speaker 2: know any way that you can fully prevent this.
38:10
Speaker 4: The times that I've seen stuff like this get prevented
38:13
Speaker 4: when it got pretty far down the road, was because
38:15
Speaker 4: there was a additional account holder on the bank happened to.
38:20
Speaker 3: A client of mine who was over ninety.
38:22
Speaker 4: Fell for this type of scam, nearly walked away with
38:25
Speaker 4: a wire, and the banker saw the joint account holders,
38:28
Speaker 4: saw something suspicious and called that joint account holder. But
38:31
Speaker 4: again here it doesn't look like city found anything suspicious
38:34
Speaker 4: about all this, So I don't know.
38:36
Speaker 2: Let's take a break for the rest of the day.
38:38
Speaker 2: Markets remain modestly negative. SMP off a few points, doalof sixty,
38:42
Speaker 2: nasdak off sixty as well. It's not much movement today
38:45
Speaker 2: on a Monday jobs report tomorrow. That's right, Jobs Tuesday.
38:49
Speaker 2: We'll cover it and more tomorrow